Answers from Airbnb, Questions for Upstart
发布时间 2023-02-15 21:00:00 来源
摘要
If revenge travel was supposed to slow down, then AirBnB hasn't noticed. Dylan Lewis and Tim Beyers (0:15) discuss: - A very healthy quarter for AirBnB, and how the travel company continues to grow its footprint. - AirBnB's $1.5 billion "waste of capital." - Upstart's not too bad quarter, and questionable use of its balance sheet. - One thing to do whenever you buy a stock. (17:02) Bill Mann and Ricky Mulvey look at Hindenburg Research's report on Adani Group, and a historic parallel that offers some insight for today. Companies discussed: ABNB, UPST, ADANIENT Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Tim Beyers, Bill Mann Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl
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中英文字稿 
AirBnB and Upstart are soaring after earnings. We dig into the details. Motley Fool Money starts now.
AirBnB和Upstart在发布财报后迅速飙升。我们将深入探讨其细节。Motley Fool Money现在开始。
I'm Dylan Lewis sitting in for Chris Hill and I'm joined by my main man for all things tech, Tim Byers. Tim, how's it going?
大家好，我是Dylan Lewis，代替Chris Hill主持节目，并与我的科技专家好友Tim Byers一起加入节目。Tim，你过得怎么样？
Fully caffeinated, ready to go, Dylan. Love it and you need that energy because we had a lot of earnings release come out this week. Yes, we did. We're going to be spending our time with two that I think are particularly interesting for the Fool audience.
迪伦，咖啡已经充分入了，准备好出发了。喜欢它，你需要这种能量，因为本周我们有很多收入发布。是的，我们会花时间关注两个我认为对Fool观众特别有趣的。
That's AirBnB and Upstart, some names that come up often in the Fool universe, some names that have become household names, really.
这些都是在“愚人圈”经常被提到的AirBnB和Upstart，它们已经成为人尽皆知的品牌名称了。
On the street and among retail investors, Tim, let's kick off with AirBnB. I looked at the numbers, just the headline numbers, and this looked like an incredibly impressive quarter.
在街上和零售投资者中，Tim，我们先来看看AirBnB。我看了一下数字，只是主要数字，这个季度看起来非常有印象力。
Long top and bottom line growth, earnings per share, 48 cents, nearly double estimates from analysts. The top line came in at 1.9 billion in sales.
公司的收入和利润持续增长，每股收益为48美分，几乎是分析师预测的两倍。公司的销售额达到19亿美元。
Am I wrong in reading this as an incredibly strong quarter for the company? No, it was great quarter, Dylan. And a great year.
这句话的意思是：我觉得公司这个季度非常强劲，难道我错了吗？不错，迪伦，这是一个非常出色的季度，而且这一年也非常不错。
So for the fiscal year, Knights and Experiences booked up 31 percent year over year. Their gross booking values, so the value of all of the business done on the platform, $33.2 billion for the year that's billion with a B.
因此，对于财年而言，Knights and Experiences的预订量同比增长了31％。他们的毛预订价值，即在平台上完成的所有业务价值，为332亿美元，这是以亿为单位的。
That's a lot of money, up 35 percent, year over year, 42 percent if you take out foreign exchange. I think what I love most about AirBnB is that now that we are post-COVID, we're post-revenge travel.
这是一笔很大的钱，同比增长35％，如果不考虑汇率因素，增幅为42％。我认为我最喜欢AirBnB的原因是，现在我们已经度过了COVID疫情，也结束了复仇式旅游。
We're starting to see that this business and the business model is capital-like, capital-efficient and generating just a monster amount of free cash flow on an ongoing basis.
我们开始看到这个业务和商业模式类似于资本，资本高效，并持续产生大量的自由现金流。
So just by way of example, here Dylan, if you took out the near billion dollars just given to employees for stock-based compensation, you still end up with close to $2.5 billion in free cash flow for AirBnB in fiscal 2022.
作为一个示例，如果你撇开AirBnB刚刚给员工发放的近十亿美元的股份补偿，到了2022年它的自由现金流约为25亿美元左右。
It's an incredible number for a business that's really killing it. So yeah, I don't think you're wrong to read it this way. The experience of AirBnB is showing up in a lot of places and the financial results reflect that.
这是一个真正表现出色的企业所获得的惊人数字。因此，我认为你这样理解它是没错的。Airbnb的经验在很多地方得到了体现，而财务业绩也反映了这一点。
I think that full-year profitability is something worth zooming in on for a company like this. We saw 1.9 billion in net income on that 8.4 billion in full-year revenue. It's real net income.
我认为像这样的公司完整年度利润值得特别关注。我们看到全年收入为84亿美元，净收入为19亿美元。这是真正的净收入。
Striven by operating profits. It's not driven by any fund with accounting or anything like that.
它受到经营利润的推动。它不受任何会计上的基金或其他因素的驱动。
This is a business that I think after a really tumultuous couple of years, Tim, has found stability and found that there's a lot of value in the model that they're offering, both to customers but to providers on the platform as well.
我认为，在经历了几年的动荡后，蒂姆的这个企业已经找到了稳定，并且发现了他们提供的模式对顾客和平台上的服务提供者都有很大的价值。
I agree. And if you take a look at just some of the other statistics, I mean, what's nice about AirBnB is they give us a lot of context about their business.
我同意。如果你仔细看一下其他一些统计数据，我的意思是，AirBnB很好的一点是他们提供了很多关于他们业务的背景信息。
So for example, trip length for the fourth quarter, 2022, so long-term stays of 28 days or more did account for 21% of gross nights booked during the quarter.
例如，2022年第四季度的旅行长度，长期逗留28天或更长时间的旅行占整个季度预定总晚数的21%。
That's pretty stable year over year. So you have long-term stays that are an increasing part of the AirBnB story. Now they do expect this to be stable, to be fair and maybe decline slightly.
这个数据比较稳定，因此长期入住成为AirBnB故事中增长的一部分。现在他们预期这个趋势会保持稳定，公正一些，或者略微下降。
But I think it's telling, Dylan, so another piece of data that they gave us is their average daily rates. That was down 1%. You're over year and yet still.
但我认为这说明了一些问题，Dylan，他们给我们的另一个数据是他们的日均价格。相对去年同期下降了1%。
We're seeing extraordinary growth in bookings, volume, extraordinary growth in revenue. There's just more and more activity on the platform.
我们看到预订量、交易量和收入都出现了非凡的增长。平台上的活动越来越多。
You don't need to raise prices dramatically. If more people are flocking to your platform, it does appear that AirBnB is just has a bigger, bigger, bigger and bigger footprint in this market. And they are asserting themselves.
你不需要大幅度提高价格。如果有更多的人涌向你的平台，似乎AirBnB在市场上越来越占据更大的份额。他们正在表现自己。
Yeah, when I look at this business, I see a bunch of different levers that can provide growth. You talked about how average stay ticket or average nightly ticket hasn't moved and yet we're still seeing 20% growth.
嗯，当我看这个业务时，我看到了许多可以提供增长的杠杆。你谈到了平均逗留票价或每晚平均票价没有变动，尽管如此我们仍然看到了20%的增长。
翻译：作者在看待这个业务时，发现有许多可以带来增长的方法。尽管平均逗留票价或每晚平均票价没有变动，但仍然能够实现20%的增长。
The company hits 6.6 million active listings. That number is probably only going to continue to go up over time. We see that there's growth opportunities in the length of stay.
公司的活跃列表达到了660万。这一数字随着时间的推移可能只会继续上升。我们认为，停留时间的增长机会很大。
There are a lot of different ways that they can try to spur growth without having it be a bad experience for their customers.
有许多不同的方式，他们可以试图促进增长，而不会让顾客感到不愉快。
Right. I think if you were looking at this as an investor, what you want to pay the most attention to moving forward here is that gross bookings volume and the nights booked.
没错。我认为如果你作为投资者来看待这个问题，你最需要关注的是未来的总交易额和预订的夜晚数量。
So in Q4, there were 88.2 million nights in experience book. That was the highest fourth quarter ever, it was a significant increase from year over years.
因此，在Q4期间，体验书中有88.2万晚的住宿预订。这是有史以来最高的第四季度，与前年相比有显著增长。
It was up 20%. I think that is an area. If the platform is being used on an increasing basis around the world, if long stays are still a material part of the story so that it's a good avenue for hosts to make money because they can sell a long term rental to someone.
它上涨了20％。我认为这是一个领域。如果这个平台在全球范围内的使用频率逐渐增加，长期住宿仍然是故事的重要组成部分，这是主机赚钱的好途径，因为他们可以向某人出售长期租赁。
You're going to see the cash continue to come in. You're going to see the revenue continue to grow. Theoretically, Dylan, you're going to see the operating margins continue to expand.
你会看到现金不断涌入。你会看到收入继续增长。理论上，Dylan，你会看到运营利润率继续扩大。
Everything is looking very healthy for Airbnb right now. Yeah. I think one thing that really solidifies the strength for me, Tim, is we see that they are on an operating basis profitable, 10 billion in cash and equivalents. We've seen a lot of companies discuss layoffs or actually go through with layoffs.
目前看来，Airbnb的一切都非常健康。是的。我认为对我来说最令人信服的是，他们从运营角度看是有盈利的，有100亿美元的现金和等价物。我们看到很多公司都在讨论或实际上进行裁员。
This is a company that did go through layoffs in the immediate aftermath of COVID while things were shaking out in 2020. We haven't seen any of that this year. I think that this is a business that is looking really awesome in what is a pretty tough operating environment.
这家公司在2020年新冠疫情爆发时进行了裁员，因为当时情况不稳定。但今年我们没有见到这种情况。我认为，在相当困难的运营环境下，这家公司看起来非常棒。
Yeah. They really have, they're doing most things right. I say most things. There is one thing. If you ask me what you haven't, but I will tell you, there is one thing that I really hated about this report, a $1.5 billion thing that I really hated, but other than that, they have done incredible work.
是的，他们确实已经做得很好了，他们在大部分方面都表现出色，我说的是大部分。不过有一件事，虽然你没有问，但我会告诉你，我真的非常讨厌这份报告中的一个1.5亿美元的事，但除此之外，他们做的工作真的非常出色。
I'll just say Dylan. Yeah, Tim, let me say, what is that $1.5 billion piece of hatred? I mean, it's the buyback. You know, in 2022, Airbnb spent, I mean, they have plenty of cash. They can clearly afford because they generate so much cash flow to buyback $1.5 billion worth of stock, but they're not taking shares out of circulation and doing that. Airbnb has a higher share count in 2022. They came out of 2022 with more shares available for sale than they did in 2021 and yet they spent $1.5 billion to retire shares.
我只想说迪伦。对，蒂姆，让我说，那1.5亿美元的恶意是什么？指的是股票回购。你知道，到2022年，Airbnb已经有了足够的现金，他们可以清楚地负担得起，因为他们产生了如此多的现金流，可以回购价值1.5亿美元的股票，但他们没有将股票从流通市场中收回。在2022年，Airbnb的股票数目比2021年多，他们结束了2022年，可供出售的股票比他们2021年还多，却花费了15亿美元去回购股票。
They're not retiring anything, Dylan. All they're doing is taking shares that were issued to employees and then using money that they have to buyback those shares to offset some of the delusion, but not all of it. It's just a real waste of capital. So I would much prefer to see that $1.5 billion put to work for me as a shareholder and maybe coming up with new ideas, expanding the platform, maybe a tuck-in acquisition. Buying back shares is just a bad idea unless you're actually going to retire those shares. But overall, I'm nitpicking a little bit here. It's not like Airbnb is spending money. It can't afford to spend. That's just a really poor way to spend it. Nobody's perfect, Tim, right? Yes. Nobody's perfect. Not even Airbnb.
他们没有撤回任何东西，Dylan。他们所做的只是拿回发给员工的股份，然后使用他们手中的资金去回购这些股份以抵消一部分稀释，但并非全部。这只是一种真正的资本浪费。因此，我更愿意看到这150亿美元为我作为股东劳动，并可能提出新的想法，扩展平台，可能增加一些小型收购。回购股份只是一个糟糕的主意，除非你确实要撤回这些股份。但总的来说，我在挑剔一点。这并不意味着Airbnb正在花费自己无法承受的资金。这只是一种非常糟糕的花钱方式。没有人是完美的，Tim，是吗？是的。没有人是完美的，甚至连Airbnb也不是。
Well, the market seemed to also appreciate the results. It stocks up double-digit percentages today, think about 13% as of taping. We also saw a pretty sizable spike in shares of upstart following their report. Shares of the AI lending company are up over 20% following its earnings release.
市场似乎对公司的业绩反应很积极。今天，股市飙升了两位数的百分比，目前已达到13%。我们还看到了 Upstart 股票价格的显著上涨，这是由于其业绩报告而导致的。这家人工智能贷款公司的股票价格在发布业绩报告后上涨超过了20%。
Tim, I will say I looked at everything with Airbnb and everything made sense to me. Numbers, market reaction. I had a little bit more of a hard time pairing up what I saw in the market's reaction to what I saw in the results with upstart. I would say you're not alone.
蒂姆，我想说我看了Airbnb的一切，一切都很清晰。数字、市场反应。但是我对于市场反应和upstart的业绩表现间的联系有些困难。我觉得你并不孤单。
Let's hit the quarterly numbers. Quarterly revenue of $147 million down 52% year-over-year. A $58.5 million loss from operations that was down from a $60.4 million profit in the comparable quarter-year-over-year contribution profit down 45%. Net income of 58.9 million last year turned into a $55.3 million net loss.
让我们达成季度目标。去年同期相比，季度收入147百万美元下降了52%。营运亏损达到5850万美元，相比去年同期的6040万美元利润下降。贡献利润下降了45%。年度净收入从去年的5890万美元变成了5530万美元的净亏损。
All of the numbers are going the wrong way for upstart. If I had to pinpoint something that feels hopeful here is that the numbers could have been worse still. On a full-year basis, revenue was down just 1% year-over-year. I think that felt maybe a little bit hopeful to some folks.
所有数字都对新兴公司来说是朝着错误的方向走。如果必须指出令人感到有希望的事情，那就是数字本来可能会更糟糕。在整个一年的基础上，收入仅比去年同期下降了1％。我认为这可能对一些人来说有点希望。
The loss from operations was $113.9 million. That's down from $141 million over fiscal 2021. The contribution profit, and this is kind of amazing. The contribution profit for fiscal 2022 was $446.8 million. That was up 12% year-over-year. That represents 49% of fee revenue. Their fee revenue was actually not too bad. If we're just looking at it, it wasn't great.
运营亏损为1.139亿美元，较2021财年的1.41亿美元有所减少。而捐款利润却十分惊人，2022财年的捐款利润为4.468亿美元，同比增长12%。这占到了费用收入的49%。其实他们的费用收入并不算太糟糕，但并不突出。
Let's be clear about this. Their overall revenue from fees was up to $907.3 million for the year. That was up from $801.3 million. There is a sense of, hey, what? Upstart's right in some loans here. I'll say that's fair. If you want to give them credit for that, fair enough. I think everything in context, and in this particular case, Dylan, I would say upstart still has not maybe gotten off of the steroids it's been on where it's using its own balance sheet to right loans.
让我们来明确一下。他们整体的费用收入达到了9.073亿美元，比去年的8.013亿美元增长了1060万美元。这让人感到有些惊讶，Upstart在某些贷款方面确实做得不错。如果您想给他们点赞，那就好吧。我认为一切要看上下文，就在这种情况下，迪伦，我想说Upstart可能仍然没有从使用自己的资产负债表来发放贷款的类固醇中摆脱出来。
In other words, the big part of the thesis of upstart is we have a really good model for pricing loans. We can sell that to institutional providers, like institutional investors, and we can sell that to banks. It's not like they're not selling loans to banks and institutional providers, but they're not doing a lot of that. They're using a lot of their own money to say, yeah, we'll write personal loans for people and carry those loans on our balance sheet.
换句话说，Upstart的论文中的主要观点是我们拥有一个非常好的贷款定价模型，我们可以将其销售给机构供应商（如机构投资者），也可以将其销售给银行。这并不是说他们不向银行和机构供应商出售贷款，但他们并没有大量这样做。他们使用了大量自己的资金来为人们编写个人贷款，并在他们的资产负债表上承担这些贷款。
Let this in context a little bit. Yes, the loan volume looks to be up a little bit. They're earning some fees on it, but they're also taking some extra risk here, Dylan. Yeah, I was going to say, Tim, I feel like that model is not necessarily what shareholders have bought into over the last year and a half. It's not necessarily the vision for the company that they thought that they were getting. It's not, and it's not the vision that Upstart originally had.
让我们稍微了解一下背景。是的，贷款额似乎有所增加。他们从中赚取了一些费用，但他们也增加了额外的风险，Dylan。是的，我想说，Tim，我觉得这种模式不一定是股东在过去一年半里购买的。这不一定是他们认为他们得到的公司愿景。它不是，也不是Upstart最初的愿景。
Now to be fair, let's talk about what they actually said about this, because when they talk about their balance sheet, the balance of loans on the balance sheet rose to over a billion dollars. That was up 310 million from the last quarter. They are now essentially saying, and they said this in their conference call. They're at the maximum size of their balance sheet. In other words, they have made all the loans that they want to make directly to personal borrowers. They're generating a lot of interest income off of that. When they issued Q1 guidance like for this year, they said, we're done. We have maxed out the loans on our balance sheet that we're willing to write to consumers. Now we want to wait and see when the market improves. They're thinking in 2023, the market improves, and they can sell some of those loans to banks.
为了公正起见，让我们谈谈他们关于这件事的实际说法，因为当他们谈论他们的资产负债表时，负债平衡表上的贷款余额已经上升到了超过10亿美元。这比上一季度增加了3.1亿美元。他们现在基本上在他们的电话会议中表示，他们的资产负债表已经达到了最大规模。换句话说，他们已经向个人借款人直接发放了所有想要发放的贷款。他们通过这些贷款产生了大量的利息收入。当他们发布了今年第一季度的指导报告时，他们表示，我们已经完成了。我们已经将能够写给消费者的贷款在我们的资产负债表上的贷款全部发放了。现在，我们要等待市场改善。他们认为在2023年，市场将会改善，他们可以将其中一些贷款出售给银行。
The guidance for Q1, Dylan, is pretty weak. It's a hundred million dollars in revenue. That's way down from what the market expected, which was well over a hundred and fifty million dollars, so way off. Part of that is because, look, we didn't really want to do this with our balance sheet. We're not going to do more of it right now. We did it last quarter. We earned a lot of interest income. We're going to be a bank temporarily, but over the long term, we don't want to be a bank, which kind of puts upstart in this weird little position, like how long does this transition last?
Q1的指导很弱，收入只有一亿美元。这远低于市场预期的一百五十多亿美元，偏差很大。其中一部分原因是，我们并不想用我们的资产负债表来做这件事。我们不打算再做更多了。上季度我们做了，赚了很多利息收入。我们暂时是一家银行，但从长远来看，我们不想成为一家银行，这让Upstart处于一个奇怪的位置，这个过渡要持续多久？
Yeah. I think, to be clear, tough situations mean businesses need to do things a little bit creatively sometimes. It's far better to weather a tough period doing some things that are a little different than maybe what you'd be expecting and have the float and the flexibility to thrive as conditions improve. But I almost feel like the things that made this quarter and the end of this fiscal year somewhat successful for them are not necessarily the same things that investors should be scoring on them going forward.
是的。我认为，要清楚地说，困难情况意味着企业有时需要创造性地做一些事情。与其按照既定的预期方式经历艰难时期，不如做一些略有些不同的事情，并具备弹性和灵活性，在情况改善时蓬勃发展。但我几乎觉得，在这个季度和本财政年度结束时，使它们有些成功的事情，并不一定是投资者未来所应该打分数的相同事情。
Right. If I were to give you to summarize this very quickly, this quarter did not prove out the upstart thesis, the core thesis of upstart in a different way. It didn't do that. What it did is say upstart is maybe pretty resilient, pretty creative, but the core thesis of we've got the most amazing algorithms and banks and institutional investors really want our loans. It didn't give you more proof that that's true. It just proved that upstart isn't going anywhere, but they still need to prove that their model is the best model for the kind of loans they want to write.
好的。如果我要让您快速概括一下，这个季度没有证明Upstart的核心论点，也就是用不同的方式证明Upstart的核心论点。它没有做到这一点。它只是表明Upstart可能相当有弹性，非常有创意，但他们需要证明他们的模型是写出他们想要的贷款的最佳模型，而他们仍然需要证明他们拥有最惊人的算法，银行和机构投资者真正想要他们的贷款，这方面没有更多的证明。它只是证明Upstart不会消失，但他们仍然需要证明他们的模型是写出他们想要的贷款的最佳模型。
Now I'm not a shareholder of upstart Tim, but to me, this just reinforces the point of write down why you buy a stock when you buy a stock. Write down your thesis and the reason behind it. It's okay if the direction of the business changes over time, but you want to be able to have that accountability.
虽然我不是Upstart Tim的股东，但对我而言，这只是强调当你买股票时写下你为什么买这只股票的论点和原因的重要性。记录你的论点和背后的原因非常重要，即使企业的方向随着时间的推移发生变化，你也希望能够对自己负责。
Absolutely. And for me, we have this stock in rule breakers, the price at which, and it's on me that I recommended it was just flat wrong. But that doesn't mean I'm willing to sell this stock from where it is today. There is something to be said for resilience. And I think upstart in this quarter showed a bit of resilience is doing a good job earning interest on the loans that it did write, but it's still got to move those loans off its balance sheet and it has to just start getting really, really good at selling loans to banks as well as institutional investors. I think when we see more of that, this stock will really rally. If we don't see more of that, then the story is going to get played out. So here's hoping. Here's hoping.
当然。对我来说，我们在规则破坏者基金中持有这只股票的价格，我的推荐是完全错误的。但这并不意味着我愿意从现在的价格出售这只股票。坚韧的品质也有其优点。在本季度，我认为Upstart表现出了一些坚韧的品质，在撰写贷款时做了一些很好的工作，但它仍然需要将这些贷款从其资产负债表中转移出去，并开始真正善于向银行和机构投资者销售贷款。我认为当我们看到更多的这种情况时，这只股票将真正大涨。如果我们看不到更多的这种情况，那么这个故事就会被玩烂。所以，我们希望如此。
Tim, thank you so much for joining me. Love talking tech earnings with you. Love breaking it down. Thanks, Dylan. We've got more investing talk in a minute, but before that, Allison Southwick and Robert Brokamp are answering your questions about saving, spending, and personal finance this Tuesday. If you've got a question, shoot us an email at podcasts at fool.com.
蒂姆，非常感谢你加入我的访谈。很喜欢和你聊科技收益，很喜欢剖析它。谢谢，迪伦。接下来我们将有更多关于投资的探讨，但在此之前，艾莉森•南威克和罗伯特•布罗卡姆将回答有关储蓄、支出和个人财务的问题，这个星期二。如果您有问题，请发送电子邮件至podcasts@fool.com。
Is it the largest corporate con in history or just a company working a broken system? A Donnie Group's publicly traded companies lost $100 billion after Hindenburg Research released a short report on the thing, Lamarit, Ricky Movy and Bill Mann dive into the details and what history can tell us about this scandal. Joining us from an office building in the island nation of Mauritius, good to see you as always. Allegedly in Mauritius. It looks a lot like Alexandria, Virginia, outside here in Mauritius. I got to tell you.
这是历史上最大的企业骗局，还是一个公司在破碎的体制下运作？唐尼集团的上市公司在Hindenburg Research发布有关事物的短篇报道后损失了1000亿美元，Lamarit、Ricky Movy和Bill Mann深入探讨了此事的细节以及历史可以告诉我们有关这起丑闻的信息。我们来自毛里求斯的一个办公楼，很高兴像往常一样见到你们。据说我们现在在毛里求斯，但实际上这里的外面更像弗吉尼亚州的亚历山大。
Sure enough, conglomerates are back in the news. Before we dive into the scandal around a Donnie, I think it's worth laying out both how important this company is to India and how widespread the businesses. It is one of India's largest companies by market cap.
果然，企业集团再次成为新闻焦点。在我们深入探讨有关唐尼的丑闻之前，我认为有必要说明一下这家公司对印度的重要性以及其业务的广泛性。它是印度市值最大的公司之一。
The Donnie Group was founded in the 80s by an entrepreneur named Gautam Adani. It was a commodity trading business first and foremost, which doesn't really get to explain just how important that is within the Indian economy. But particularly in the 80s, really prior to the information revolution in India, being a commodity trading businessman that you had your fingers in all sorts of levers of the Indian economy.
唐尼集团是由企业家高塔姆·阿达尼于80年代创立的。它主要是一家商品交易企业，这并不能真正解释它在印度经济中的重要性。尤其是在80年代，也就是印度信息革命之前，成为一名商品交易商意味着你在印度经济的各个方面都有自己的影响力。
And so they moved into things like managing ports and electric power generation and renewable energy and mining and they operate airports and natural gas and food processing.
因此，他们转向管理港口、电力发电、可再生能源、采矿及其经营机场、天然气和食品加工等领域。
So they moved out from, if you think of all of those businesses, they are either infrastructure or they are within the realm to this day of commodity trading, but still an incredibly important component of the Indian economy.
因此，如果你考虑那些企业，可以看出它们要么是基础设施，要么是在商品交易领域内，但仍是印度经济中非常重要的组成部分。
There's a major short report that recently came out from Hindenburg. You may have heard their name when they came out with a short report on the car maker Nikola. Now Hindenburg is calling a Donnie quote, the largest con in corporate history.
最近Hindenburg发布了一份重要的短报告，你可能听说过他们在汽车制造商Nikola的短报告中的名字。现在，Hindenburg称唐尼的语录是公司历史上最大的骗局。
You have another perspective from the professor Oswaath Demodorin that quote, this is about the weakest links in the India story. And from my perspective, this is not a con game. This is just a company that's played those weaknesses.
你从奥斯瓦特·德莫多林教授那里听到了一种说法，他说的是印度故事中最薄弱的环节。我认为，这不是一个骗局，只是一家公司利用了这些薄弱之处。
End quote, short sellers are in the business of making explosive and very pessimistic claims bill. Where do you fall between those two claims? I fall closer to professor Demodorin's claim, but that does not mean that a Donnie has behaved particularly well.
结论是，做空者在业务中会做出引人注目和非常悲观的声明，比尔。你在这两种声明之间属于哪一种？我更倾向于德摩德林教授的声明，但这并不意味着唐尼的行为特别好。
表达意思：短线做空者会做出悲观的声明来赚钱，但是该说法存在不同的看法。说话人更倾向于德摩德林教授的看法，但是也并不认为唐尼的行为非常出色。
I would describe, so essentially what Hindenburg came out and said in their report is that a Donnie is a conglomerate of loosely tied companies together, but then they also had offshore entities in places like here in Mauritius that masked who owned what within the business.
我会这样描述，汉登堡公司在他们的报告中说道，唐尼是一群松散相连的公司集合体，但也在像毛里求斯这样的离岸地区设置了实体，掩盖了业务内部的所有权。
And it essentially allowed Donnie itself to manipulate the shares. Now that's something that's entirely different from like a Nikola where, and Hindenburg came out and said with Nikola, they're not doing anything that has any business, you know, that has any business value to it.
这个实质上允许 Donnie 自己操纵股份。这与尼古拉（Nikola）完全不同，Hindenburg 表示，尼古拉没有进行任何具有商业价值的活动。
This is in effect a fake business. That's not what they're saying about a Donnie. What they're essentially saying about a Donnie is that it is an incredibly sophisticated stock manipulation scheme. So when professor Demodorin comes out and says, yes, they are taking advantages of the weaknesses within the Indian system, I don't really find that being too far away from what Hindenburg is arguing, although he's using much fewer explosive adjectives than they chose to do so in their report.
这实际上是一家假的业务。他们并没有这样说唐尼（Donnie）的事情。他们基本上是在说唐尼是一个极其复杂的股票操纵计划。所以当Demodorin教授出来说，是的，他们正在利用印度体制内部的弱点，我并不觉得这与Hindenburg所说的有太大不同，尽管他们在报告中使用的爆炸性形容词要少得多。
So yeah, we don't have time to go through all of the claims, but the big one of the, you reference stock parking in one of the things that Hindenburg accused them of is using these shell companies essentially to say there was a larger float of shares outstanding, and then they could bid up the stock price and in turn make the company larger, give it a larger market cap.
所以，我们没有时间逐一梳理所有的指控，但是其中一个很大的指控是，你提到了一项Hindenburg指控他们使用这些空壳公司来声称有更大的流通股份，然后他们可以抬高股价，从而使公司变得更大，拥有更大的市值。
And then a Donnie was using its stock as collateral for loans. And then when the stock price goes down, that means that Donnie has to start paying up for its loans. And then also some strange inter-party transactions, so for example, a company with zero employees made a loan of like $200 million to the Donnie group.
接着，唐尼公司将其股票作为贷款的抵押品。当股票价格下跌时，唐尼不得不开始为其贷款付款。此外还存在一些奇怪的党内交易，例如，一家没有员工的公司向唐尼集团借了2亿美元的贷款。
Sure, why not? Sure, why not? And then there's also a claim that the auditors who were looking at Donnie's books were at best inexperienced. At best inexperienced, yeah, that's right.
当然可以，为什么不呢？而且还有一个说法，审计唐尼的账簿的审计员至多是没有经验的。最多也只是没有经验的，没错。
And any of those you want to zoom in on a little more?
你想更加重点了解其中的任何一个吗？
You know, it's one of those things you're talking about, you're talking about a Monet painting. When you stand up close, you see all these things and they don't make a whole lot of sense. They don't, they don't seem all that important. And then you go back and you see the painting itself. You know, Ricky, we don't really like pointing to a share price and saying that there's information within that share price because the stock can go up and down for a million different reasons.
你知道的，有些事情就像你谈论一幅莫奈画作一样。当你站得离得很近时，你会看到很多东西，但它们并没有太多意义，也不是很重要。但当你退后一步看这幅画时，你会发现整幅画成为了一个整体。Ricky，我们不喜欢仅仅通过股价来判断股票是否有价值，因为股票价格的波动可能有数百种不同的原因。
And understanding by just saying a million by as many reasons as you can think of, but it is meaningful to know that a Donnie's share price today after it is lost 60% of its value is higher than it was at any point before December of 2021.
即使你能想出无数理由，也只是说“一百万”，但知道唐尼公司股价今天已经跌了60%，却比2021年12月之前的任何时间都要高，这是有意义的。
Like it was never higher than that prior to what's that 13 months ago. That's what is in quotations lost. So what Hindenburg is saying is essentially that a Donnie group is taking advantage of weaknesses within the Indian financial system and their regular Jory framework and their markets to inflate the price and then hide who is truly benefiting from it.
就像在13个月前之前从未达到过那个水平一样。这就是引用语中失落的意思。因此，Hindenburg实际上在说Donnie集团正在利用印度金融体系和常规框架以及市场内部的弱点来推高价格，然后隐藏真正受益者的身份。
And so from that standpoint, what they are saying is that is that these organizations that, you know, the fact that they went out and to me, let me say as an aside, without without making an accusation here, but it is a tried and true tactic for companies that are playing fast and loose to use an auditor who is, who is completely not, not armed to audit a company that complex.
因此从那个角度来说，他们说的是，那些组织，你知道，他们出去，对我来说，让我顺便说一句，不要指责，但对于那些玩弄手段的公司来说，使用一个完全没有执照的审计师来审计如此复杂的公司是行之有效的策略。
So what you have here is a situation that honestly none of the single elements look all that bad, but in totality, I think that you have a situation where a company has manipulated itself within, you know, within one of the largest economies in the world. Going with Monet instead of the point guy, the dot point guy. That's what I'm saying.
您所面对的情况实际上每个单独元素看起来都不是很糟糕，但总体来说，我认为这是一种公司自己在全球最大的经济体内操纵的情况。选择莫奈而不是点心人，这就是我的意思。
I think it was Sarat. Sarat, exactly. So do any parts of this, the report that give you pause, like I went through it and I found it like, I found it kind of unsavory that they were doxing one of the suspects personal email addresses, like this is this guy's personal contact information. And then also it did seem like there was an overwhelming amount of evidence and I understand why they publish everything after it to your report, but I'm also aware of the rhetorical tactic of just bomb art blasting someone with so much evidence that they can't respond to a single part of it.
我认为是Sarat。确切地说是Sarat。所以，这份汇报里有没有什么部分让你感到犹豫，比如说，我看过了这份报告，发现他们公开了一位嫌疑人的个人电子邮件地址，我觉得这样做有些不妥，因为这是这个人的私人联系信息。此外，似乎有大量的证据，我理解为什么会在报告发布后公开所有的证据，但我也知道一个修辞策略：就是用大量的证据轰炸某人，让他无法回应其中的任何一个部分。
And then it gives more credence to the person who's just going point point point point point point point point. Right. Exactly. It's like that old line that you should never get in an argument with a fool because other people who are watching have no idea which one is the smart person and which person, which person is the actual fool.
然后，这更加证明了那些一直点点点点点点点点点的人的可信度。是的，确切的说。就像那句老话一样，你不应该与傻瓜争吵，因为那些旁观者无法判断谁是聪明人，谁是真正的傻瓜。
So yeah, and I've actually seen a very similar situation to this take place with a company that's, it was run by an Indian national entrepreneur called NMC Health. It was a Dubai based healthcare company that was ultimately found to be a management directed fraud and essentially, as far shareholders were concerned, was rendered valueless because the type of extraction that was being taken and that's the amount of money that was being taken out of the business and the business itself, as is the case, we believe with with Adani, the business is real, right.
是的，我其实见过很类似的情况，发生在一家由印度国籍企业家NMC Health经营的公司。这是一家总部位于迪拜的保健公司，最终被发现是一种管理导向的欺诈，而对于股东而言，它基本上失去了价值，原因是被提取的金额和业务本身，正如我们相信的那样，这也是阿达尼公司的情况。 业务是真实的，对吧。
They are generating cash flows. They are they are running ports. They are running airports so all of the business itself is real. What you're talking about here and there is precedent for this is a business that is essentially weaponizing regulations and seems within the laws and the financial system to extract wealth from an operating business.
他们正在产生现金流。他们在运营港口。他们在运营机场，所有的业务本身都是真实的。你所谈论的（就像前面所说），有先例的是一种基本上通过操作法规和似乎符合法律和金融系统的方式从经营业务中提取财富的企业。
I mean, this is kind of more of a take but I am because this is different than Nikola and I'm really curious to see how the shorts play out because some of the evidence that Hindenburg lays out is incredibly detailed seems extraordinarily clear that Adani had been playing games with manipulating its stock to the levels of billions and billions of dollars.
我的意思是，这有点像一种带有主观色彩的看法，但是因为这与尼古拉不同，我非常好奇看看空头交易者会如何发挥作用，因为Hindenburg所提供的一些证据非常详细，似乎非常清楚，阿达尼一直在玩弄其股票，将其推高至数十亿美元的水平。
But even if you're right that they're doing that, you're still playing a short, shorting game against a company that's really good at manipulating its stock allegedly. Yeah, that's exactly it. There's never been a time that a company has been accused of being a fraud and they said, you got us. We did it. We were on you and this is not Scooby Doo and the mystery machine and there's no mask being pulled off of the bad guy and it turns out that it's actually the farmer up the road.
即使你是对的，他们的确在这样做，但你仍然在玩一场短期的游戏，对抗一家据说非常擅长操纵自己的股票的公司。是的，就是这样。从来没有一家公司被指控为欺诈，然后承认错误。我们不是在看《史酷比与神秘车队》，也没有人会脱下面具，揭开坏人的真面目，结果发现是路边的农民。
It does not happen that way. So yes. And in India in particular, there are all sorts of restrictions for companies to short shares and it is why to me and we can have a longer conversation about short sellers. I don't happen to think of them as being the most evil people in the world but I also don't happen to think of them as being the people with the white hats but you were exactly right. But are taking on a different form of risk being on the other side of a trade especially in a country like India that has so many limitations placed on companies capacity to sell short.
这种情况不会发生。特别是在印度，各种限制都适用于公司做空股份，这就是为什么我认为我们可以进行更长时间的关于做空者的讨论的原因。我不认为他们是世界上最邪恶的人，但我也不认为他们是穿白帽子的人，但你说得很对。然而在另外一边，承担了不同形式的风险，尤其在像印度这样的国家，为公司出售空头股份的能力受到如此多的限制。
Two things I've noticed that I'm going to lump in together in one point as we wrap up. One is that I've seen reporting in Bloomberg that a lot of Indian mutual funds did not own shares of Adani. The second is that India's population recently overtook China. So it seems like if you're an investor you'd want to have some exposure to the largest population in the world.
在结束之前，我注意到两件事情，将它们合并在一起放在一点上。一是我看到彭博社报道，很多印度共同基金没有持有阿达尼的股票。第二是印度人口最近超过了中国。因此，如果你是一个投资者，你可能想要对世界上最大的人口有一些接触。
But does the Adani story give you any more caution about investing in companies based in India? You know I have a long experience professionally in India and it is a country that I am always very hopeful for but I am mindful of.
亚达那故事是否让你对投资印度公司更加谨慎？我在印度有着长时间的职业经历，一直抱有希望，但也注意到其中的风险。
But for people who are curious about what it is that Hindenburg is accusing Adani of go back and look at the history of NMC health because it's a very similar situation and in any case where you are a minority investor in a country where there are not great protections for minority investors you need to just have a little extra layer of doubt that at the end of the day that your interests are going to be the ones that are going to end up being paid attention to.
对于那些好奇Hindenburg在控告Adani方面指控了什么的人，可以回顾一下NMC健康的历史，因为这是一个非常类似的情况。在任何情况下，如果你是一个少数投资者，在一个没有很好保护少数投资者的国家，你需要多一层怀疑，最终你的利益会受到关注。