Front Porch Podcast #2: Opendoor’s biggest Threat in 2023
发布时间 2022-12-19 10:25:31 来源
摘要
Our second Weekly Datadoor Front Porch Podcast. Please like and subscribe!
00:00 - Intro
01:08 - News: Opendoor Expansion
05:35 - October Sales Data
12:50 - Question: Biggest "Pros" & "Cons" in the data
23:40 - Zillow Partnership
34:23 - Datadoor's $OPEN Price Target (None)
37:13 - Q4 Earnings Estimates Release
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highest month in the company's history. But October is still a pretty good month for Open Door in terms of sales. And one thing that I want to point out is that we saw a pretty big skew towards lower priced homes in the mix in October relative to earlier in the year.
公司历史上最高的月份是某一月份。但是就销售额而言，10月对Open Door来说仍然是一个相当不错的月份。我想要指出的一件事是，相对于今年早些时候，我们在10月份的房屋销售中看到了向更低价位的房屋倾斜的情况。
There were a lot more homes from the $100,000 to $200,000 range and fewer homes from the $500,000 to $1 million range. And one thing that's interesting about that is that it's kind of counter to what we would expect given how strong the housing market is right now. We would expect prices to be higher and for more expensive homes to be selling, but it seems like for whatever reason that's not necessarily the case at Open Door. They're still selling homes across a wide range of prices, but October was definitely more skewed towards those lower priced homes. And overall, like I said, it was still a pretty good month for them on the sales side.
房屋价格在10万到20万美元范围内的房屋更多，而50万到100万美元范围内的房屋较少。有趣的是，这与目前房屋市场的强劲表现相反。我们本来预计价格会更高，更昂贵的房屋会卖得更好，但在Open Door，似乎不是这种情况。他们仍在销售各个价格范围的房屋，但是十月份确实更偏向较低价位的房屋。总体而言，像我说的那样，他们在销售方面仍然是一个相当不错的月份。
Yeah, that's interesting. I mean, I think we're seeing kind of mixed trends in the housing market right now. You're seeing strong demand, you're seeing prices continue to rise, but maybe not quite as much as they were at the peak earlier in the year. And you're seeing supply constraints and things like that. So it's kind of mixed signals overall in the market, but I think for Open Door, they're still seeing strong demand for their homes and they're still able to sell homes at these prices, even in the face of some challenges in the broader market.
是的，这很有趣。我的意思是，目前我们正在看到住房市场方面的趋势有些混杂。强劲的需求和房价持续上升，但可能还没有像年初的峰值那么高。同时，供应限制等问题也存在。所以总体来说，市场信号有些混乱，但我认为对于Open Door来说，他们仍然看到他们的房屋有很强的需求，即使在整个市场面临一些挑战的情况下，他们仍然能够以这些价格销售房屋。
Yeah, and I think it's also worth noting that Open Door is not necessarily the only company facing these types of challenges. We've seen a lot of the iBuyer companies that operate in the same space face supply constraints and having trouble acquiring homes at the pace that they would like, just given how strong demand is and how little supply there is out there. So it's not necessarily unique to Open Door, but they certainly have a front-line view of what's happening in the market and they're continuing to navigate through it.
是啊，我觉得值得注意的是，开放门采取的策略并不一定是唯一的因应这些挑战的方式。我们已经看到许多在同一领域经营的iBuyer公司面临了供应限制，难以以他们所希望的速度购买房屋，这是因为需求很强劲，供应却很少。因此，这不一定是开放门独有的问题，但他们肯定能够第一时间观察市场发展并继续应对。
Definitely, and I think one thing that's interesting to look at with Open Door is just how they're adapting to that environment. We've seen them invest more heavily in renovations, we've seen them look at ways to expand into different markets and things like that. And I think we expect to see more of that going forward as they try to continue to grow their business and deal with some of these challenges in the broader market.
当然，我认为Open Door值得关注的一件事情就是他们如何适应这个环境的。我们已经看到他们更多地投资于翻新，我们已经看到他们考虑进军不同的市场等等。我认为我们预计将来还会看到更多这样的情况，因为他们试图继续发展其业务并应对更广泛市场的一些挑战。
Yeah, definitely. And speaking of looking forward, we had some questions come in from Twitter about what we can expect from Open Door in the first half of 2023. So we wanted to take a little bit of time to address those questions as well. So the first one is, what markets do we expect Open Door to move into next?
是的，绝对没错。说到向前看，我们收到了一些来自 Twitter 的问题，问我们在2023上半年可以从 Open Door 期待什么。因此，我们希望稍微花些时间来回答这些问题。第一个问题是，我们期待 Open Door 进军哪些市场？
Yeah, so I think one thing that we've seen from Open Door in the past is that they tend to kind of focus on certain regions or certain states before they move on to others. So for example, they've been expanding aggressively in Texas, they've been expanding aggressively in the Southeast, places like Georgia, the Carolinas and things like that. So I wouldn't be surprised to see them continue to focus on those areas in the first half of 2023, maybe expanding into some of the adjacent markets in those states or in those regions where they already have a presence. But beyond that, it's kind of anyone's guess. I think they could look at other regions of the country, they could look at other states that they haven't been in before. But I think it's kind of hard to say where they'll go next.
嗯，我认为从过去Open Door的经验来看，他们往往会在移动到其他地方之前专注于某些地区或某些州。例如，他们一直在德克萨斯州积极扩张，他们一直在东南部扩张，例如乔治亚州，卡罗莱纳等地。所以我不会惊讶地看到他们在2023年上半年继续专注于这些区域，也许会在那些已经有存在的州或地区扩展到一些相邻的市场。但除此之外，其他地方就很难说了。他们可能会考虑到国家的其他区域，可能会考虑到他们之前没有涉足过的其他州。但我认为很难说他们下一步会去哪里。
Yeah, definitely. And I think another question that came up was, what new products or services can we expect from Open Door in the next six to 12 months?
是的，绝对的。另一个出现的问题是，我们能从Open Door在接下来的6到12个月里期待什么新产品或服务？
Yeah, so I think we've already seen some early indications of what they're working on with Complete. You know, we talked about that earlier in the podcast where they're trying to offer not just the ability to buy and sell homes through Open Door, but also to buy homes on the market, to sell homes on the market, and kind of combine all those different components into one seamless transaction. So I think we can expect to see more from Complete over the next six to 12 months, maybe new markets where that product is available, maybe new features that they add to it, things like that. Beyond that, it's a little bit hard to say. I think Open Door has been very vocal about wanting to be more of a kind of one-stop shop for all things real estate, whether that's financing, whether that's home renovation, whether that's just simplifying the transaction process overall. So I think we could see them continue to experiment with new products and services in that vein over the next six to 12 months.
嗯，我认为我们已经看到了一些他们正在与Complete合作的早期迹象。你知道，在之前的播客中我们已经谈到过，他们试图不仅通过Open Door提供购买和出售房屋的能力，还试图购买市场上的房屋，出售市场上的房屋，并将所有这些不同的组成部分融合成一个无缝的交易。因此，我认为我们可以期待在未来六到十二个月里看到更多Complete的内容，也许是该产品可用的新市场，也许是他们添加的新功能等等。除此之外，很难说。我认为Open Door一直非常明确地表达了他们想成为全部房地产事项的综合平台，无论是融资，房屋翻新，还是简化整个交易流程。因此，我认为在未来的六到十二个月里，我们可能会看到他们继续尝试推出这类新产品和服务。
Yeah, definitely. And I think, you know, we mentioned earlier in the podcast that they're still hiring, they're still expanding into new markets. So we can definitely expect more news from Open Door in the next six to 12 months. And we're excited to cover it on this podcast.
嗯，肯定的。而且我想，你知道的，我们之前在这个播客中提到过他们还在招聘，他们还在扩展到新市场。因此，在接下来的六到十二个月内，我们绝对可以期待Open Door会有更多的消息。我们很兴奋能在这个播客中进行报道。
Yeah, definitely. It's a rapidly evolving space. It's an exciting space. And, you know, Open Door is one of the biggest players in it. So we're definitely looking forward to continuing to cover them and other companies in the space as well.
是的，确实如此。这是一个快速发展的领域，非常令人兴奋。而且，你知道，Open Door 是其中最大的参与者之一。因此，我们期待继续报道他们和其他该领域的公司。
The highest number of homes that they've sold in a one-month period ever and also they sold 1,000 homes plus in one day which is sort of mind-boggling right for the company and so very very impressive execution in that month.
他们曾经在一个月内卖出最多的房屋，而且他们在一天内卖出了1,000多个房屋，这对于公司来说有点难以置信，所以那个月的执行非常非常印象深刻。
October a little bit lower 2,800 and then gross margins for the company in October were flat relative to September so September they were about 0.5% estimated and in October they were 0.4% estimated.
10月底我们的销售额下降了2800美元，公司的毛利润则与9月持平。在9月份，毛利润估计为0.5％，而在10月份则为0.4％。
We also saw pending volumes trend lower and pending margins trend lower as well so it looks like they're closing out the year really focused on selling off the worst inventory. They're not buying a lot of homes so pending sales are going down because there's not a lot of new listings.
我们还看到未决量和未决利润趋势下降，所以看起来他们非常专注于清售最差的库存，以结束这一年。因为没有太多新上市的房屋，所以他们并没有购买很多房屋，所以未决销售正在下降。
But basically, I think the most important takeaway from this was just how impressive Q3 was in terms of both volume and overall profitability for the company. So, really excited to see what Open Door and other companies in the space do moving forward.
但基本上，我认为这次的最重要启示就是，公司在第三季度无论是销售量还是整体盈利能力上都非常出色。因此，我非常期待Open Door和其他该领域的公司未来会有怎样的表现。
The October data that I saw is that since the summer months, the embedded margin for Open Door homes, which is the listed margin of their homes, right if they sold them today what would the gross margin be - that's what embedded margin is - and their embedded margin since summer has been just on a crash course towards earth right, just relentlessly going down.
我看到的十月数据显示，从夏季开始，Open Door房屋的嵌入式利润率（也就是他们房屋的清单利润率，如果今天卖掉他们，毛利率会是多少 - 这就是嵌入式利润率）已经在不断地下降，直奔地球。
And in October, that embedded margin finally stopped going down the week of October 13th - that stopped at 2.6% 2.7% embedded margin for all of their listings.
在十月份，嵌入式边距终于在10月13日这一周停止下降了 - 所有上市的嵌入式边距都停在了2.6％-2.7％。
What we've seen since in the data, which I think is encouraging if you're constructive on the prop tech space, is that Open Door's embedded margins are beginning to march higher, and there really hasn't been any change in that trend.
我们从数据中看到的情况似乎对于对房地产科技持建设性态度的人来说是令人鼓舞的，即Open Door的内嵌边际正在逐步上涨，并且这个趋势还没有发生任何改变。
We're now in December so that was two months ago so for the past two months embedded margin has continued to rise higher for the company so I think that's kind of you know one of the more bullish takes from October data.
我们现在已经到了十二月，那是两个月前的事了，所以在过去的两个月中，公司的嵌入式余额继续上升，我认为这可能是从十月数据中得出的比较乐观的看法。
The less bullish take is that margins and volumes are trading lower to close out the year.
较保守的看法是，到年底时，利润和交易量都比较低。
The question then is raised: what would be the most bearish take on that?
那么问题就出现了：对此最悲观的看法是什么？
After having like a blockbuster September going into October with much lower volumes and still a challenging real estate market, I think the most bearish take would be that the trend of declining margins and volumes continues, indicating a possible difficulty in sustaining growth or profitability.
在经历了大热的九月之后，十月份的交易量下降且房地产市场依然具有挑战性。我认为最悲观的看法是，在利润和交易量持续下降的趋势下，可能会出现难以维持增长或盈利的困难情况。
Know the differences between September and October Open Door really flexed a lot of a lot of aggressive sales tactics in September to get poorly timed inventory purchases out the door right and so they sold a lot of homes but it's not like those homes were at great margins right which is why Q3 margins you know suffered a drag because because those margins really felt the brunt of much higher September margins dragging down the whole cohort and so I think October volumes are lower for a couple of reasons one because the man just keeps just kept going down across the U.S.
了解9月和10月的区别非常重要。在9月，Open Door采用了很多激进的销售策略，以及时出售库存，因此他们卖出了很多房屋，但这些房屋的利润并不高。这就是为什么Q3的利润率受到拖累的原因，因为那些低利润的房屋拉低了整个集团的利润率。因此，我认为10月的销售量因为两个原因而下降：一是因为美国的需求一直在下降。
October I think had the highest cancellation rate for for home buyers for the year which is which is wild but also Open Door's pending pipeline took a big hit because they sold so many of those homes in September right a lot of the homes that they otherwise would have sold in October and November were pulled forward to September because of the incentives that Open Door offered and so I I attribute Open Door's decline in unit volumes in October to those two factors.
我觉得十月份的取消率对于购房者来说是最高的，这太疯狂了，但是开放门的未决管道因为他们在九月份售出了很多房屋而受到了很大的打击。他们原本会在十月和十一月售出很多房屋，但因为开放门提供的刺激措施，这些房屋都被提前售出了。因此，我认为开放门十月份单位销量的下降是由这两个因素造成的。
We also saw a mortgage rates spike again at the end of September I think which is kind of what would probably led to lower volume as well in October. What is so interesting here is we were at end of September when Open Door was preparing their earnings call for Q4 and that's basically when they came up with the guidance and what they talked about in Q3.
我们在九月底又看到了抵押贷款利率大幅上升的情况，我认为这可能是导致十月份交易量下降的原因。有趣的是，在这个时候（即九月末），Open Door正在为他们的第四季度财报电话会议做准备，这基本上是他们在第三季度谈论的指导方针和内容。
So end of September probably looked a lot different than it's looking now you could argue that we were a lot more scared of mortgage rates going even higher because we had that spike where we are now at a point where mortgage rates go lower week by week in record moves not as fast as they wind up but definitely fast and we are reaching kind of hopefully next year at the point where we are getting to the magic 5.5% mortgage rate 30 a mortgage rate number where affordability recovers a little bit so it's hopefully the uncertainty went down quite a bit but with the hawkish Fed nobody really still knows what your next months are about but I think if Open Door would give guidance today things would look different and that's kind of the interesting part of our public companies and guidances it's a snapshot in time and then they don't talk about it anymore in the market like housing in 2022 changed rapidly from month to month right yeah yeah it's normally it doesn't matter right because housing moves so slow but the entire time that Open Door has been a publicly traded company it's like only four days of information to the investor community in a given year right before earnings earnings dates is tough because housing is moving pretty fast and you can visit if you if you aren't paying attention so yeah I think that's a good point.
到了9月底，情况可能与现在不同。可以说，在我们经历过那次峰值之后，我们更担心按揭利率将进一步上涨，现在我们处于按周创纪录下降的阶段，虽然不如升高的速度快，但确实很快，希望到明年能达到5.5％的魔术按揭利率30年。这个按揭利率数字是房价恢复一点的重要指标，因此，希望不确定性降低了很多，但鉴于鹰派美联储的政策，人们仍然不知道未来几个月会怎样。如果Open Door今天能给出一些指导，情况可能会有所不同，这是我们公共公司和指导的有趣之处，这是一个时间点的快照，然后市场上就不再谈论它了，像2022年的住房市场变化一样，从月到月变化很快。通常情况下这不重要，因为房价上涨很缓慢，但在Open Door成为上市公司的整个时间里，每年只有四天向投资者提供信息，这让人们感到困难，因为房价变化得很快，如果您不关注市场，您就会错过机会。
All right we have some questions from our audience thank you thank you for asking all of questions in the discord and twitter we you can also send us your questions via email at podcasted datador.io so we can discuss them here.
好的，我们听众有一些问题，非常感谢你们在Discord和Twitter上问的所有问题。你们也可以通过电子邮件（podcasted datador.io）向我们发送问题，这样我们就可以在这里讨论它们。
of some of the myths around Open Door too which we can get into later but in terms of the pros and cons for Open Door, I think one of the biggest pros is their ability to offer instant cash offers to homeowners who want to sell their properties. This eliminates the hassle and uncertainty of the traditional home selling process and can be a big selling point for customers.
关于Open Door的一些神话，我们之后可以详谈。就Open Door的优劣势而言，我认为最大的优势之一是他们能够向想要出售房产的业主提供即时现金报价。这消除了传统房屋销售过程的麻烦和不确定性，对客户来说可是一个很大的卖点。
Another pro is their use of technology and data to streamline the buying and selling processes. This can make the transactions more efficient and faster for customers, which is always a plus.
另一个优点就是他们利用技术和数据来简化买卖流程。这可以让顾客的交易更加高效快捷，这是个不错的优点。
On the other hand, one of the biggest cons for Open Door is their current financial situation. They have seen significant losses in recent years and there is no guarantee that they will be able to turn things around.
另一方面，开门机构面临的一个最大的缺点是他们目前的财务状况。近年来，他们遭受了巨大的亏损，而且并不能保证他们能够扭转局面。
Another potential con is their reliance on the housing market. If there is a significant downturn in the housing market, it could have a negative impact on Open Door's business model.
可能存在的另一个缺点是Open Door依赖房地产市场。如果房地产市场出现明显下滑，可能会对Open Door的商业模式产生负面影响。
Overall, it's important to look at both the pros and cons when discussing Open Door and similar companies in the real estate industry. It's also important to keep in mind that the industry is constantly changing and evolving, and that companies like Open Door will need to adapt in order to stay competitive.
总的来说，在讨论“Open Door”及类似的房地产公司时，需要同时考虑其优缺点。还需牢记行业不断变化发展，而“Open Door”等公司需要适应才能保持竞争力。
Of like a misconception about that our coverage to I think I think some people believe that because a lot of the content most of content that we publish is bullish or constructive on Open Door in the iVying space that we are sort of permeables and that we're we're immune to the facts of the of the bear case or or that we reject them.
我想有些人有一个误解，认为我们的报道只赞成 Open Door 和 iVying 空间的建设性意见，因此我们仿佛不会受到空头案例的影响，或者说我们会拒绝接受它们的事实。
I think truthfully the opposite is true. I mean so often I find myself you know really frustrated about certain elements that I see in the data or certain trends of behavior, or you know I look at a home that was purchased and relisted at a negative margin, and it's like ah why are they doing that you know what I mean.
我觉得，真相恰恰相反。我是说，我经常发现自己对一些数据元素或某些行为趋势感到非常沮丧，或者看到某个被购买的房屋以负利润再次上市，我就会想“为什么他们那样做呢”，你理解我的意思吧。
So I think we pay attention to all the data right, like our business data. Door is only successful if we're right; it's not successful if Open Door does well as a company, it's not successful if Open Door does badly. We're only successful if we're accurate with our data and how we present it to people.
所以我认为我们要关注所有数据，包括我们的业务数据。Door只有在我们正确时才能成功；如果Open Door作为公司做得好，Door并不成功；如果Open Door做得不好，Door也不成功。只有我们准确使用和呈现数据，才能成功。
have to buy homes to stay in business, and I think that they have to buy more homes than they did in October or for the last few months to really get back on track in terms of hitting the kind of numbers that they were hitting before the pandemic. But I also think that they have to be really strategic about how they do this, they have to be really careful about the markets that they enter into, where the demand is, where the pricing is right for them, and they also have to be very careful about the type of homes that they're buying. And so I think it's a very challenging situation, but I do think that they have committed to continuing to buy homes and to continuing to try to make this model work, and so I think it's going to be interesting to see how they fare in the next few quarters given the challenges that they faced over the last year.
我认为房地产投资公司为了生存要购买更多房产，而且我觉得他们需要比十月或前几个月更多地购买房产才能达到疫情前的数量水平。但我同时认为，他们必须非常谨慎地选择市场、需求和合适的价格，以及购买适当的房屋类型。我觉得这是一个非常具有挑战性的情况，但我认为他们已经致力于继续购买房屋并继续努力使这种模式运转良好，因此我认为，在过去一年面临的挑战下，看他们在接下来几个季度中的表现将非常有趣。
Overall, I think that Open Door has made some mistakes, they've certainly taken some big swings and sometimes those swings have not paid off, but I also think that they've demonstrated a commitment to their business model and to continuing to try to make it work, and I think that's a credit to the team that they have there. They have some really smart people working on some really interesting problems, and I think that they're doing some things that are very innovative and very cool, and so I think it's an interesting company to follow and to think about, and I'm always excited to see what they're up to next.
总的来说，我认为Open Door犯了一些错误，它们确实采取了一些大胆的尝试，但有时这些尝试并没有产生回报。但是，我也认为他们展示了对他们的商业模式的承诺，并且继续尝试使其发挥作用，我认为这是他们的团队的一项功绩。他们有一些非常聪明的人在处理一些非常有趣的问题，我认为他们正在做一些非常创新和很酷的事情，所以我认为这是一个有趣的公司，值得关注和思考，我总是很兴奋地看到他们下一步会做什么。
paragraph 1: In conclusion, Open Door is a fascinating company to watch, but one that has had its fair share of challenges.
总的来说，Open Door 这家公司是值得注目的，但它也面临着许多挑战。
paragraph 2: The biggest issue facing the company right now is their acquisition pace, which has slowed significantly in recent months.
目前该公司面临的最大问题是他们的收购速度，在最近几个月已经显著放缓。
paragraph 3: To get back on track, they need to buy more homes and be strategic about which markets they enter into and the types of homes they acquire.
为了重新回到正轨，他们需要购买更多房屋，对他们进入的市场和他们所购置的房屋类型进行战略性的考虑。
paragraph 4: However, despite their challenges, Open Door continues to demonstrate a commitment to their unique business model and a willingness to innovate and adapt to new challenges.
然而，尽管面临许多挑战，Open Door 仍然表现出对其独特商业模式的承诺，愿意创新和适应新的挑战。
paragraph 5: Need to buy and sell homes to run their business and if they're not buying homes they're not going to have the volume to match their very high cost of operating and so that's that's like a baseline point for the company.
我们公司需要买卖房屋以维持业务运转，如果不购买房屋，就没有足够的量来匹配我们很高的运营成本，这就是公司最基本的运营理念。
paragraph 6: The other problem too is that I don't see margins coming up materially without the company replacing all this stale inventory with fresh inventory and they still have 10,000 homes plus on the books.
另一个问题是，我看不到边际利润实质上上涨的可能性，除非公司拿新的库存取代所有过期的库存，他们还有10,000套房子的库存。
paragraph 7: If they're only acquiring 1,000 homes a quarter it's going to take a really long time for us to see margins return to normalcy and operations to return to normalcy unless they begin to accelerate the purchase volume.
如果他们每个季度只购买1000个房屋，那么我们想看到利润率和运营恢复正常，就必须加快购买数量，否则要花很长时间。
paragraph 8: A data door we're about four weeks delayed on purchase data that's like industry standard just on the basics of how you can collect those data.
我们在购买数据门上已经延迟了约四周，这是行业标准，只涉及如何收集这些基本数据。
paragraph 9: But I think when I'm waiting with baited breath for this company is to see them resume purchase activity. I think that's chief priority number one because everything really follows once they do that and until they do I think it's going to be really hard for this company to do well.
但我认为我等待这家公司的最重要的事情是看到他们恢复购买活动。我认为这是首要的事情，因为一旦他们恢复购买活动，其他所有事情都会随之而来。而在他们这样做之前，我认为这家公司将很难做得很好。
Paragraph 1: What's also important to mention is the delay between them actually starting to want to acquire new homes and ramping up marketing or ramping up the email campaigns to do existing existing people that read that the sign up for an offer before you have like a.
同样重要的是提及他们实际开始想要购买新房和加强市场营销或电子邮件活动之间的延迟，以便让已经阅读并注册接受优惠的人有更多的时间去做决定。
Paragraph 2: Delay of 14 days where that offers actually valid after somebody recreated the offer with with a tour of showing their home then they can close the home somewhere between 14 days and I think 60 days later so that's the time for the home to close and to actually move to open those books.
第二段：如果有人重新展示他们的房子，并重新提供了这个优惠，在14天内，这个优惠是有效的，然后他们可以在14天至60天之间把房子卖了，那就是房子的卖出时间，也是打开那些账簿的时间。
Paragraph 3: Then they have about two weeks to get that home ready for listing and then it's on the market and then they have to sell it with I mean average listing durations that would be quite high right now.
然后他们需要大约两周的时间来准备好房子进行上市，然后将其放在市场上出售。平均而言，目前挂牌的持续时间相当长，他们必须在此期限内完成销售。
Paragraph 4: I mean median listing durations being quite high right now it's challenging to even ramp up purchase volume to get enough homes listed to really impact q1 right you said we're four weeks delayed it could be that right now they're buying a lot of homes just to get them ready and list them in January for the big season in q1 but it's kind of unrealistic.
第4段：我的意思是目前中位数的房源上市时间非常长，甚至是挑战性的，因为我们要增加购买数量以获得足够的房源挤压第一季度，你说我们已经延迟了四周，现在他们可能正在购买大量房屋，以便在1月份的大季节前完成准备并上市，但这有点不现实。
Paragraph 5: That means you look at the oh no yeah holding times are 160 days which is what you said and so extrapolate that it could be a problem yeah that being said the 160 days they include a lot of the inventory that they were holding from q2 we probably would need to filter this down to like homes today created in the last few months.
这意味着你要看看持续时间为160天的“哦不嘿”（Oh no yeah）存货情况，正如你所说的那样，然后推断出可能会出现问题。话虽如此，这160天的存货时间包括了他们从第二季度开始持有的很多库存，我们可能需要筛选仅关注过去几个月内创建的房屋。
Paragraph 6: I assume they're selling faster and the good news is a big part of that is the home is also pending but still maybe it's challenging it's it's it's it's really they need to to move something we haven't seen anything on the acquisition case.
我认为它们的销售速度很快，好消息是房子也已经在等待中，但也许这是有挑战的，他们真的需要促销一些东西，我们还没有看到任何收购案例。
Paragraph 7: It's it's really hard for us to like monitor marketing we can only look at anecdotal data on on marketing we can see if they started sending out more emails or new marketing campaigns that people are reporting about but it's really hard to collect data on that yeah.
第七段：我们很难监测营销活动，我们只能查看有关营销活动的轶事数据，我们可以看到他们是否开始发送更多的电子邮件或者人们正在报告的新的营销活动，但真的很难收集这方面的数据。
Paragraph 8: So the acquisition side of the business is really a black box to us until the acquisition actually happens but from where we stand right now it it's going to be a challenging q1 as well with not much new inventory I guess that's the TLDRA.
所以，直到实际收购发生，公司的收购方面对我们来说确实是一个黑盒子。但就我们目前的立场来看，这将是一个具有挑战性的第一季度，因为没有太多的新库存，我想这就是 TLDRA。
Paragraph 9: Yeah that's exactly right yeah it's like I don't know I don't know when they're gonna when they're gonna really start ramping up again but all of the news like insular services renovations even the marketplace right the the golden the golden egg creating this marketplace where it's capital-light and you get this cut as a middleman as the as a settlement layer of residential real estate.
对的，完全正确，就像我不知道他们什么时候会真正开始再次大规模扩张, 但所有的消息像是服务改造，甚至市场，黄金蛋创建了这个市场, 它是资金轻量化的方式，你可以作为一个中间商获得利润，作为一个住宅房地产的结算层。
Paragraph 10: All of that doesn't exist if open door can't execute on iBind right and so they need to get back to some scale with their acquisitions they need to replenish inventory and honestly the fact that embedded margin is rising for the company's inventory despite them adding so few homes every week is shocking like I don't know about you Sebastian but that that surprises me that embedded margin is up as much as it is in soktober when they're only adding like 200 homes a week.
如果开门无法在iBind上执行，那么所有这些都不存在，因此他们需要通过收购恢复一些规模，他们需要补充库存，而且说实话，尽管他们每周只添加了很少的住房，但公司库存的嵌入式利润率上升的事实真让人震惊。我不知道你Sebastian怎么看，但是在soktober这个月，他们每周只添加了大约200个住房，利润率竟然上升了这么多，这真的让我十分震惊。
Paragraph 11: You know to listings and you imagine even if they brought spreads down a little bit on their acquisitions there's a little bit razor conversion zillow partnership should help with this as well but just get a few more homes on the books double triple the pace embedded margin should end up a lot higher and the company should look more like it did for the rest of the time that we were tracking it since IPO and that's what the company needs that's my goal and if you're bullish on the space I think you need you need to see it yeah so that's what we will be watching for in in next few months.
你知道上市清单，你甚至想象，即使他们把收购价降低一点，有一点剃刀转换带来价值合作伙伴如Zillow应该对此有所帮助，但只要在书籍上再添加几个住宅，增加速度双倍，三倍嵌入边际就应该更高，公司应该看起来更像我们跟踪它的时间以来自首次公开募股以来的情况这就是公司需要的，这是我的目标，如果您看好该领域，我认为您需要这么做，是的，这就是我们在未来几个月中将关注的内容。
Paragraph 12: One thing you mentioned is the zillow partnership that's kind of the the golden grooves of open their booths right now I'm still very positive about the partnership like oh yeah redfin being out of the race of iBan is well we only have like an offerpad and an open door left as the true nationwide iBuy in companies and with open door partnering with zillow that's a really good thing.
你提到的一件事是和Zillow的合作伙伴关系，这是目前公开展示他们档口的金色摇钱树。我仍然对这份合作感到非常积极，尤其是Redfin退出iBuy市场竞争之后，现在只剩下Offerpad和Open Door这样真正的全国性iBuy公司了，而Open Door与Zillow的合作是一个好事情。
Paragraph 13: And then both being invested in this working it's important for zillow to actually capture more a take rate of transactions that are like facilitated through their platform obviously we also saw zillow got some equity as part of this deal as well that is praised really high so we need to get a tenix from your protest actually matter for zillow which they have an incentive to help here but important thing to mention is what we heard from zillow in the last earnings call this is a partnership that will launch somewhere in q1 it will start with a few markets it's not that it's going to be we're ready in all markets nationwide it's going to be market by market they're probably going to be careful about this so they will monitor how much of those zillow leaves actually convert and if open door can give the the right offers.
然后，由于双方都对这个合作投资了，所以对于Zillow来说，实际上捕捉更多的通过他们平台促成的交易收益率非常重要。显然，我们也看到Zillow在这笔交易中得到了一些股权，这很受赞赏，所以我们需要从您的抗议中得到一个唯一的解释，实际上这对Zillow很重要，他们有动力在这里提供帮助，但需要强调的是，从上次财务电话中我们听到的是，这是一个将在Q1推出的合作伙伴关系，它将从一些市场开始，不是所有市场准备就绪，而是市场上市场地进行，他们可能会非常小心谨慎，以此来监测有多少 Zillow leaves 实际上会转化为OpenDoor能给出的正确的出价。
Paragraph 1: So even if this is launching in the second week of January and that's a very bullish view of when this could launch like we're talking about engineers here that are going on vacation probably right now they're going to be back like the second week of January and let's say everything is ready we're going to launch second week of January it's going to take them 20 to 60 days to actually close and have any of those acquisitions it's probably not going to make a dent in q1 obviously as things ramp up this could be a big tailwind for them in q2.
即使这个计划在1月的第二周发布，这种看法非常乐观，就像我们在谈论工程师，他们现在可能正在度假，但第二周会回来，如果一切准备就绪，我们将在第二周启动。实际上，需要花费20到60天的时间来完成并进行任何收购交易。显然，它不会在第一季度产生任何影响，但随着事情的逐渐加速，这可能成为第二季度的一大助力。
Paragraph 2: Hopefully whatever they are building for and whatever they're building they're building it's not long time that's was essentially point out like the partnership was announced in q1 probably was already in the work somewhat from q1 it's it's going to be a deep integration it's not like a link to open those websites and that's it they really try they're probably really trying to optimize this to convert as many interested sellers as possible but yeah that's the the asterix here on the q1 partnership.
希望他们正在建的，不管是为了什么目的，不管是在建什么，都不要耗费太长时间。基本上，合作伙伴关系是在 Q1 宣布的，但可能从 Q1 开始就已经在进行了一定的工作。这将是一个深度整合，而不是简单地链接这些网站。他们可能真的在尝试尽可能多地转化感兴趣的卖家，但这是 Q1 合作伙伴关系的尖峰。
Paragraph 3: I think a lot of that's what what I see a lot of people are also confusing a little bit what the partnership is about it's not going to help open those sell more homes it's about open they're getting sell elites people that are browsing zillow but they have their own home to sell they will go for a funnel that will see if they either want to get an instant offer and be connected to a realtor i mean zillow is still a company that says to realtor so that's going to be an important part of this flow yeah we will we will see how how this zill integration actually looks like and it will be for volumes in three out of a quarter from now.
我认为很多人都对这个合作的含义有些混淆，它并不是为了帮助开发商卖更多的房屋，而是让那些正在浏览Zillow但同时也有自己要卖的房子的人更容易联系到中介。他们将通过一个渠道决定是否选择即时报价并联系中介。我想强调的是，Zillow仍然是一家为中介服务的公司，所以在这个过程中，中介将扮演着很重要的角色。我们将会在接下来的一个季度看到这个Zill整合的具体效果。
Paragraph 4: I think I just thought of something too while I was listening to you talk about that. I think um open door has unarguably had a very challenging year right and and you think about some of the moves it made recently they shut down the mortgage division air got moved to you know no longer being CEO now president of marketplace we have the cfo at the helm.
我听你谈话时，脑海里也想到了一些事情。我想通了，Open Door肯定度过了一个非常具有挑战性的一年。当你考虑它最近所做的一些举动，比如关闭了抵押贷款部门，Air不再是首席执行官，而变成市场部总裁，我们的首席财务官现在执掌CEO的职务。
Paragraph 5: It's funny that open door seems to have reflexively moved all of its ambition into its comfort zone which is the sell side transaction right like it open door was born from creating a wonderful sell side experience for the consumer consumer selling their home open door gave them an offer that was fast certain simple super high nps right and then they started trying to you know get into the buy side that's complicated right did it renovations mortgage and uh buy with open door open door complete all these all of these products that I think long term have a lot of value but are challenging right.
有趣的是，Open Door似乎已经将所有雄心壮志移至其舒适区域中，也就是卖方交易。就像Open Door的诞生是为了为消费者创造出色的卖方经验一样，消费者出售房屋时Open Door提供了一个快速、可靠、简单、极高的NPS值的报价，然后他们开始尝试进入买方市场，这是复杂的，需要进行翻新、贷款和Open Door的购买，Open Door提供所有这些产品，我认为这些产品长期来看具有很大的价值，但是有很大的挑战。
Paragraph 6: Like think about being a a homeowner it's it's sort of all commoditized right you don't really care who's paying you it's who's paying you the most money right so so i mean it's finance and that's what open door really mastered whereas buying a home that's really challenging right you have to fall in love it has to be a feeling right it depends on who you're with and what what the home is like what you're touring experiences it's so much more nuanced um there's so many more variables and and how to get right and i think that's why agents have historically been so valued because they they really do the buy side well right um they they really help you know create this experience of shopping for your dream home um certainly the good ones.
就像考虑成为房主一样，它已经被商品化了。你并不真的在乎是谁付你钱，而是谁付你最多的钱。所以，我的意思是这是一个金融问题，而这正是Opendoor真正掌握的。然而，购买房屋真的非常具有挑战性，你必须爱上它，这是一种感觉。这取决于你和房子的感受，不同的房子有不同的旅游体验，要考虑的变量很多，所以就更加微妙了。这也是为什么中介历史上一直如此值得尊重，因为他们真正做好了购买方面。他们真正帮助你创造购物梦想之家的体验，当然只限于优秀的中介。
Paragraph 7: And so I think I think that's kind of interesting to separate because open door started with sell side transaction they made a relationship with zillow who um are much better probably a buy side uh but their partnership with zillow is to maximize their sell side proficiency by you know generating using those seller leads to buy homes from consumers.
所以我觉得这很有趣，要分开讨论，因为Open Door的开始是从卖方交易开始的，他们与Zillow建立了关系，后者可能更擅长买方，但他们与Zillow的合作是为了通过利用卖方线索从消费者那里购买房屋来最大化利用他们的卖方能力。如果有必要的话，可以改写第7段。
Paragraph 8: And so i think uh and then you know we have the third party marketplace same thing open doors using its skills to create a financial offer for these customers rather than focusing on the buy side it just seems like all of their aspirations are really focused back to their core competency which is to create a wonderful um sell side transaction at the end of the day it's all about money um i think and and they've really learned how to do that well money and convenience.
所以我想，然后你知道，我们有第三方市场，同样的开放门户运用其技能为这些客户创造财务报价，而不是专注于买方，这似乎是他们所有抱负的核心，即创造美好的销售交易在最后，这一切都关乎金钱，我想他们真正学会了如何做到这一点，金钱和便利。
Paragraph 1: Actually that's a really good point that that has been kind of uh their strength until now what what we will hopefully see with exclusives next year because right now you're right that the buy side of the exclusives of their marketplace it's quite unrement it is uh they're trying to make the process more efficient uh so you can do it on your computer at home to actually like commit to a home uh to start uh your closing um and line up all the paperwork in in a more digitalized process but what is missing is the romance in that process right and we've seen some wording around that and we've seen some some experiments that they were running in past years and in acquisitions that could make the buy side more romantic uh
其实那是一个非常好的观点，直到现在，这已经是他们的强项了。我们希望明年在独家内容上看到这一点，因为你对于他们的市场上购买独家内容的一面是对的，它还不够完善。他们正在尝试让这个过程更有效率，这样你就可以在家里用电脑来处理所有的文件工作，以开始购买一个家并最终完成交易。但是这个处理过程缺乏浪漫氛围。我们看到过一些相关的描述，并且已经进行了一些试验和收购，这可以使购买方面更具浪漫氛围。
Paragraph 2: Eric was. talking about a an e-commerce e-commerce uh real estate experience an e-commerce experience is not where you click a checkbox and submit a form with your name on it an e-commerce experience is where you you can browse through homes you can compare per homes you can you can get a feel for the product on your computer on your phone instead of uh needing to visit the home i think that's where they can do uh a lot of innovation and honestly that's why i was expecting a lot of innovation this year but we haven't seen much of that they're they're really focused on the on the seller experience even on the third party marketplace so i hope what we will see next year with Eric focusing on a marketplace is really innovating on the buy side uh ideas that we have seen before from the acquisitions etc
Eric在谈论他的电子商务房地产体验。电子商务体验不是你勾选一个复选框并填写你的姓名的提交表单。电子商务体验是你可以浏览房屋，比较房屋，通过你的电脑或手机感受产品，而不需要去拜访房屋。我认为这是他们可以进行许多创新的地方，诚实地说，这就是为什么我期望今年有许多创新，但我们没有看到很多，他们真正关注的是卖家体验，甚至是第三方市场。我希望明年我们能看到Eric聚焦于市场，真正在买方面进行创新，借鉴我们从收购等地方看到的想法。
Paragraph 3: Imagine you uh you you you're looking at the home you want to buy a home and you could actually customize your home before you buy it let's say you don't like the the color of your home you don't like the color of some rooms in your home there's a lot there that that can be digitized digitized that would uh make the exclusive spine experience a lot more romantic than like buying from the MLS and that's what i'm really looking forward to next year i would really expect them to make big progress on on the buy side experience yeah that would be that would be really nice um although i hope it's i hope it's once they're in a much more comfortable position um financially they're back to normalcy the market is a little bit more normal but long term for open door to become the company that it wants to become to meet through aspirations 100 percent they have to figure out a way to make a wonderful buyer experience
想象一下，你正在寻找想要购买的房屋，而且在购买之前，你实际上可以根据自己的喜好来定制房屋。比如说，你不喜欢房屋的颜色，你不喜欢一些房间的颜色，这其中有很多都可以数字化，这将会让独一无二的购房体验更加浪漫，比从 MLS 中购买要好得多，这也是我非常期待的一件事。我真的期望他们在明年的购房体验方面有大的进展，这将是非常不错的。虽然我希望他们在经济上有更加舒适的位置，回归正常，市场也会更加正常一些。但是，从长远来看，为了成为 Open Door 想要成为的公司，实现他们的100%愿景，他们必须想出一个方法来创造一个美妙的购房体验。
Paragraph 4: Yeah they have first some very unromantic goals to get through they they have the target of 30% of uh sales going through uh their marketplace without owning the home and we've seen that 30% goal is probably not kept at the buy experience from our data that you can see is on datador.com uh the data on exclusives that that a really good phenomenal uh conversion rate when they listed all all their inventory in the market um so they're probably still very focused on the sales side on actually getting people to to uh list their homes on the third party marketplace and and align that with with the demand that they have in market
是的，他们首先要实现一些非浪漫的目标，其中一个目标是让他们市场上30%的销售不持有房产。从我们在datador.com上看到的数据来看，30%的目标可能无法实现。我们可以看到，在他们把所有库存上市时，独家数据表现非常好，转化率非常高。因此，他们可能仍然非常专注于销售方面，试图让人们在第三方市场上列出他们的房屋，并与市场需求保持一致。
Paragraph 5: Well i think that was a much more balanced uh i had a much more balanced coverage of of of what we are afraid of but what we were also looking forward to in the first half of of 2023 um i think one one question that still wanted to address that we had in the in youtube is like there was a question about what is our price target for open door and i think we can clarify here um how we look at what we're doing with datador as not really as picking stocks or picking a price target but uh going getting to the core of of open door's business right right
我认为我们在上半年中更加全面地平衡了对我们所害怕的和期待的事情的覆盖报道。在 YouTube 上还有一个问题，就是关于我们对 Open Door 的价格目标是什么，我认为我们可以在这里澄清，我们将数据化视为深入 Open Door 业务核心而不是挑选股票或价格目标。
Paragraph 6: Um i think i i said this in the past but um i i'm not the right person to be uh listening to about stock picks right like i i don't do technical analysis i i you know didn't work at Goldman Sachs uh it's it's not it's not my my profession it's not my training um the only thing i'm trying to do with datador and with Sebastian is to get the company right and um and even with all the data that we have and and all the focus and our massive group of discord you know detectives who are who are also doing you know their own research and sharing it and discussing it even then we get things wrong um
嗯，我想我曾经说过这句话，但是我不是关于股票选择的正确人选，我不会做技术分析，我也没有在高盛工作过，这不是我的职业，也不是我的培训。我与Datador和Sebastian所要做的唯一事情是把公司搞好，即使我们有所有的数据、所有的关注以及大量的调查组成员在做他们自己的研究和分享，并进行讨论，即使如此我们仍然会犯错误。
Paragraph 1: which is wild given how much public data there are about this but it's a very complex business um i i don't have a price target i i don't intend to ever ever provide one from here on out um i just think all we want to do is is try to get the company right and understand it as as well as possible and i think it's not really you to blame if you're not having a Goldman Sachs education year if even if you look at the price targets of Goldman Sachs or credit scene so or any other analysts out there at the beginning of the year
这很疯狂，因为公共数据非常丰富，但这是一个非常复杂的业务。我没有价格目标，也从未打算提供。我认为我们想要做的就是尽力让公司正确，并尽可能地了解它。即使你看看高盛或信贷先锋等其他分析师在年初的价格目标，如果你没有接受过高盛的教育，也不应该受到责备。
Paragraph 2: i think no one did expect where tech companies were going uh where uh really state companies were going that was really not uh easy to anticipate when you were in the same seat in January or February yeah and to be fair now uh you know a lot of those analysts use data door um to you know to for the rest of the medicine to understand things um so we all kind of work together uh we all have different backgrounds but certainly we are not we're not doing anything like stock analysis or financial modeling in that regard yeah uh our goal is to get the business right call the quarters ahead of time uh which we have a great history of getting them right
我认为没有人预料到科技公司现在的发展方向和国有企业的发展方向。当我们在一月或二月坐在同一个位置上时，很难预见到这一切。但现在，很多分析师都使用数据门户来理解这些情况，我们大家也一起工作，虽然我们有不同的背景，但我们确实没有做股票分析或财务建模等方面的工作。我们的目标是提前准确地预测业务，并且我们在这方面有非常出色的历史记录。
Paragraph 3: um and uh we actually have some good news uh later this week oh yeah this week already yeah maybe so you want to oh yeah i was i was excited to hear you do it but um but i'm happy happy to uh we generally release estimates uh to data door subscribers for for the companies that we cover so open door right now uh on the last day of the quarter and so last day of the quarter this year will be December 31st um but we decided because it's the holidays and all um and because it's been a very hard year and because we're so thankful for um your support and the community that we've been able to to build together to release those data a week early so just in time for for for Christmas uh Christmas Eve we will be releasing uh open doors q for estimates um by data door so uh those are those are estimates for the quarter historically we've been very close uh you can see our historical estimates on our on our website as well but um but yeah i'm excited it's gonna be uh it's gonna be fun to share it's gonna be a great Christmas present all right um make sure uh if you if you want to learn more about uh data door or join some other people that are that are really crazy about prop tech companies make sure to join us in our discord uh that you can find on data.io slash community uh and uh send us some questions at podcast.io.io and we always have to read some comments and uh make sure to subscribe and like the video so we can uh secure some of those uh interviews that we talked about in 2023 get some some founders of of uh exciting prop tech companies on this channel and talk about their business.
嗯，我们实际上有一些好消息，嗯，这个星期晚些时候，哦，是的，这个星期已经到了，是的，也许你想要，哦，是的，我很兴奋听你说这件事，但是我很高兴，我们通常会向我们覆盖的公司的数据门订阅者发布估计数据，现在是Open Door，当前季度的最后一天是12月31日，但是由于假期和所有事情都很辛苦，因为我们非常感激您的支持和我们所共同建立的社群，我们已经决定提前一周公布这些数据，则在圣诞节前夕，我们将通过数据门发布开门的季度估计，这些是历史季度估计，我们历史估计非常接近，您也可以在我们的网站上看到历史估计，但是，我很兴奋，这将是一个很棒的圣诞礼物。如果您想了解更多关于Data Door或加入一些非常热衷于物业科技公司的人，请确保加入我们的Discord（数据点io/社区），并发送问题给我们的Podcast（podcast.io.io），我们总是需要阅读一些评论，请务必订阅和喜欢视频，以便我们可以在2023年采访一些我们所说的激动人心的物业科技公司创始人，并谈论他们的业务。
Paragraph 4: Yeah just uh just to echo that i really do think that the prop tech space is sort of unique um because if it is a beaten down space and it's a hard space right logistically operationally uh financially it's a tough space to to build a business um and part of what we wanted to do with data door was to create the town square for for residential real estate prop tech builders thinkers investors and so if you're listening um and you like what we do and you know people in adjacent prop tech companies that are building things we'd love to have them on and and chat about what they're building and and kind of find these edge use cases uh of people who are really trying to fix what has been broken for a long time um and so just let us know we're easy to find uh can leave a comment or find us on twitter and the discord um we'd love to we'd love to meet anyone um and have someone on so thanks a lot.
嗯，只是想重申我真的认为房地产科技领域是独特的，因为它是一个被击垮的领域，并且在物流、运营和财务方面都非常困难，建立业务很难。我们想通过Data Door创建一个城镇广场，为住宅房地产科技建设者、思想家和投资者提供平台。如果你在听的话，并且喜欢我们所做的事情，也认识在相邻的房地产科技公司中正在建设的人们，我们很乐意邀请他们加入讨论他们正在构建的内容，并找到这些边缘使用案例，其中有些人真的正在努力修复长期存在的问题。所以，请让我们知道，我们很容易找到，可以在评论区留言或在Twitter和Discord上找到我们，我们很乐意认识任何人，并邀请他们加入讨论。非常感谢。
Paragraph 5: Yeah this year data door has been a lot about eye-biting and an open door as we go into 2023 we have been working on a lot of things behind the scenes so next year you you can expect a data to cover a lot more companies uh a lot more about real estate a lot more about prop tech and it's gonna be a big year maybe we can talk about this a bit more in in the next episode which will be after the holiday break so no new episode for the next two weeks and we will see you again in the second week of of January. Yeah very excited for what's coming.
嗯，今年的数据门展现出了许多吸引眼球的特点，也开了许多方便之门。考虑到接下来的2023年，我们正在幕后进行许多工作。因此，你可以期待明年的数据门将覆盖更多的公司、更多的房地产，以及更多的房地科技，这将是一个重要的年份。或许我们可以在下一集再谈论这些事情，那将是假期休息后的时间。接下来两周不会有新的节目，我们将在一月的第二周再次见面。为即将到来的事物感到非常兴奋。
Paragraph 6: All right any last words for our listeners happy holidays. Happy holidays. Thank you for for listening. Thank you for watching and reading and subscribing to data door. Uh we are super grateful uh that we have people that support our effort so we can actually go deep and uh and build some things to really get to the core of of these prop tech businesses.
好了，有什么最后对我们的听众祝福节日愉快的话吗？节日快乐。谢谢你们收听。谢谢你们的观看、阅读和订阅数据门户。我们非常感激有人支持我们的努力，以便我们能够深入探索并且构建出一些东西来真正深入这些物业科技企业的核心。
Paragraph 7: Yeah I'm great. All right thanks so much. Thank you.
第七段：是的，我很好。好的，非常感谢。谢谢你。