Opendoor's Exposure to SVB, new List with Certainty Product & Current Margins - Front Porch Podcast #7
发布时间 2023-03-14 02:27:36 来源
摘要
00:00 Intro
01:04 Silicon Valley Bank
13:35 List with Certainty
26:57 Pending Gross Margins
Get Institutional Grade iBuying data for Free: https://datadoor.io
Join our Discord of proptech nerds: https://discord.gg/kVjRqkGrgP
Subscribe to our Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/Datadoor
Subscribe to our Podcast on Spotify or Apple Podcasts: https://anchor.fm/datadoor
Datadoor's Twitter: https://twitter.com/DatadoorIO
Tyler's Twitter: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Okland_MD
Sebastian's Twitter: https://twitter.com/SebastianSzturo
---
Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/datadoor/message
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
Welcome to the seventh episode of the Data Door Front Purchase podcast. We have a packed show today. Fuck, it's not a picture. Okay, let's start again. I put them up. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe it sells better when we call it a back show.
欢迎收听《数据门前采购》播客的第七集。今天我们的节目非常充实。啊，不是图片。好吧，让我们再来一遍。我把它们挂起来了。对，对。也许我们称它为背面节目时销售会更好。
All right. Welcome to the seventh episode of the Data Door Front Purchase podcast. We have an exciting show today. We will talk about the topic of the weekend. Silicon Valley Bank going under and what that means for open door. What is the relationship between Silicon Valley Bank and Open Door right now? We will talk about this with certainty.
好的，欢迎收听第七期 Data Door Front Purchase 播客。今天我们有一个令人兴奋的节目。我们将谈论周末的话题。硅谷银行破产了，这对 Open Door 意味着什么？硅谷银行和 Open Door 目前的关系是什么？我们将确定地谈论这个问题。
Something we heard about in the areas called. We talked a little bit about it in our last discussion. They may own on Twitter Spaces last week. We're going to dive into that a bit more. And then lastly, we have a listener question on how great pending margins look like a forebender. So these are our free main topics today.
我们听说过在某些区域内的某些事情。在上次讨论中我们对此进行了一点讨论。他们上周可能在Twitter Spaces上拥有了。我们将深入探讨。最后，我们有一个听众提出的问题，关于待定边距是如何类似于前弯器的。所以，这些是我们今天的三个主要话题。
Let's jump into this situation with SVD. It's right now it's an evolving situation for us. It's a someday evening in the US time. The situation right now is that another bank signature bank failed and this had stepped in and guaranteed full deposit for both signature bank and Silicon Valley bank for everybody to get their money out on Monday, which is really positive after the weekend went and how much screaming there wasn't on Twitter. But more importantly, for this podcast is like what was or installation of open door and how could this affect them? Title of this.
我们现在要用SVD跳进这种情况。 对我们来说，这是一个正在发展的局面。 美国时间的某个晚上。 目前的情况是，另一家银行签名银行失败了，而这家银行为签名银行和硅谷银行的每个人提供了完全存款保证，以便大家在星期一取出自己的钱，这真是积极的消息，考虑到周末有多少人在Twitter上嚎叫。 但更重要的是，对于这个播客，我们需要关注的是开门的安装，以及它如何影响他们？ 这就是这个标题。
Any information that. Yeah, so so I commented about this on Twitter this this past week when I heard about it. I heard from one of my sources. Who I trust that open door has less than 1% of their capital in Silicon Valley bank and none of their critical business accounts are run out of Silicon Valley bank, which was encouraging to hear. I mean, it's a move point now because it sounds like no one's going to be missing their money anyways.
嗯，我在上周听到这个消息后在Twitter上发表了评论。我从一个我信任的消息来源那里得知，敞开的大门只有不到1%的资本在硅谷银行，并且他们没有任何关键业务账户是在硅谷银行运行的，这让我感到鼓舞。我是说，这已经是一个过去式，因为听起来似乎没有人会错失他们的钱。
But I will say there is a historic relationship between Silicon Valley bank and open door and a lot of the founders of open door have recognized the idea that without Silicon Valley bank support early on, there probably wouldn't be an open door. And I think that's probably the case for a lot of disruptive and private technology companies and Silicon Valley over the past few decades who, you know, partnered with Silicon Valley bank. So I think overall and maybe maybe this is a separate topic.
不过我要说，硅谷银行和Open Door之间有着历史上的联系。很多Open Door的创始人意识到，如果没有硅谷银行在早期的支持，Open Door可能就不会存在了。我认为，在过去几十年里，很多颠覆性和私有化技术公司都与硅谷银行合作，这可能是整体趋势。也许这是一个分开的话题。
I mean, when you look into the cause of all of this, it really does appear to be mismanaged funds. But I will say it's a huge blow for the startup community and it's unfortunate to see because Silicon Valley was very important for founders. Yeah. There's probably some other better podcast to cover like what actually went wrong here. It probably wouldn't have just the fact that Silicon Valley bank, but as we see now with signature bank and and probably some other banks that are in this in no situation where they have to be very long duration but low interest instruments that wouldn't be worth the same as they were when rates were lower.
我的意思是，当你看到这一切的原因时，似乎真的是资金管理不当所致。但我要说，这对创业社区来说是一个巨大的打击，看到这样的情况感到遗憾，因为硅谷对创始人来说非常重要。是的，可能有一些其他更好的播客去讨论这里究竟发生了什么。这可能不仅仅是硅谷银行的问题，但是现在我们看到签名银行和其他一些银行也陷入了这种长期但利率较低的困境，这些工具不像利率较低时那样有价值。
So if everybody is going to get for their money and the bank would probably not be able to cover the amounts of time in time, I guess that's what happened here. The spicy thing is because in Silicon Valley a lot, it's a lot about herd mentality. Everybody is running to the same sectors. If it's crypto or like AI, everybody wants to fund the same things. Obviously, if the big VC companies tell their companies to pull up money out of Silicon Valley bank, everybody else was also running after the money. I think in the end what happened on Fridays that 25% of deposits, like over 40 billion dollars, I got fired out and that kind of result in whatever shock we saw after that.
如果每个人都要得到他们的钱，而银行可能无法及时覆盖时间的金额，我想这就是在这里发生的事情。有趣的事情是因为在硅谷很多情况下，都是关于群体心理。每个人都在奔向同样的领域。如果是加密货币或人工智能之类的事情，每个人都想资助同样的事情。显然，如果大型风投公司告诉他们的公司从硅谷银行提取资金，其他人都会跟着钱跑。我认为最终周五发生的事情是存款的25％，超过了400亿美元，被支付了出来，这种结果导致了我们在此之后所看到的任何震惊。
And the risk is that this could happen to other banks. So that's why they've had stepped in and said, hey, all the deposits, not just the insured part, we will cover them from the right decision. I think just a double tap on that. And like you said, this isn't really the podcast to go into exactly what happened, but I think we can we can simplify this a little bit.
风险在于其他银行也可能发生这种情况。因此，他们介入并表示，嘿，所有存款，不仅仅是保险部分，我们将从正确的决定中为它们提供保障。我想再强调一下这一点；就像你所说，这并不是一个详细讨论发生了什么的播客，但我认为我们可以把这个问题简化一下。
I think there's there's two things that you look for for security in a bank when you have a massive deposit, right? One is how much of it is insured by the federal government and only banks really have that designation that's part of what gives them power as banks, right? But then the other thing is how much liquidity does that bank have? And the liquidity profile, how much cash do they actually have available in the event that there is a bank run so they could cover all deposits, right? So that ratio is really important.
我认为，当你有大量存款时，你在银行寻求安全性的两个方面是什么呢？一个是联邦政府保险覆盖的比例有多少，只有银行才有这种指定，这是他们作为银行的权利之一。但另一个是该银行有多少流动性？流动性概况，意思是在银行运行出现问题时，他们实际上有多少现金可用，以支付所有存款，对吗？因此，这种比例非常重要。
And I think a lot of the, you know, the really powerful banks in the United States, right, like the JP Morgan, the Wells Fargo bank for America, those types of company, they have massive liquidity profiles because of the 2008 financial crisis.
我觉得在美国，许多那些强劲的银行，比如摩根大通银行、富国银行，那些类型的公司，由于2008年的金融危机，它们拥有大量的流动性资产。
But for Silicon Valley bank, you know, you, you look at what happened in the past couple of years, you think open door, mistimed mortgage rates and interest rates, right? Like Silicon Valley bank was even worse, right? They bought 80 billion of mortgage back securities when interest rates were near zero, trying to get a 1.5% yield.
但对于硅谷银行来说，你知道，你看看过去几年发生的事情，你会想到开门政策、时间不对的抵押贷款利率和利率对吧？就像硅谷银行更糟糕，对吧？当利率接近零时，他们购买了800亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，试图获得1.5%的收益率。
And then the Fed raised interest rate 75 basis points four times and then again, you know, 50, et cetera. And you're in a situation where those 80 billion dollars of assets are only gaining 1.5%. When you're consumer bank, it like sofi or whatever is giving you 4%.
然后联邦储备委员会四次提高了基准利率75个基点，而后又提高了50个基点，你知道的。你现在处于这样的情况，那80亿美元的资产只获得了1.5％的增长。而你的消费者银行，就像sofi或其他银行会给你4％。
People start wanting more yield on their funds. And I think because Silicon Valley bank didn't have very much of their assets ensured by the federal government number one, but two really just didn't have a liquidity.
人们开始希望他们的资金能得到更高的回报。我认为这是因为硅谷银行没有很多资产由联邦政府保险，而且也没有足够的流动性。
Compared to their deposits, they're in a situation where a bank run made it very easy for them to go under. Yeah, it will be interesting what the consequences of this are in the next two months.
和他们的存款相比，他们很容易陷入银行崩盘的情境。接下来两个月内的后果会很有趣。
I mean, people are speculating from when maybe rate hikes will slow down or stop, which is obviously great for mortgage rates probably, but who knows what else will break in this environment?
我是说，人们正在猜测加息可能会何时放缓或停止，这显然对贷款利率可能是好事，但在这种环境下，谁知道会发生什么不可预见的事情呢？
Yeah, what? Well, this important to know is you mentioned as far as we know, open door when we had very small amount of money and Silicon Valley bank.
嗯，什么事？嗯，需要知道的是，你提到当我们只有很少的资金和硅谷银行的时候开放了门户。
Obviously, public companies don't disclose who they're lending or banking partners are. This is not part of any rules. I don't think anybody discloses that.
显然，上市公司不会披露他们的贷款或银行合作伙伴是谁。这并不是任何规则的一部分。我认为没有人会透露这个。
So, so we don't know for sure if any of their lending facilities are there or not. But there's a really great podcast that dot phrase that on the focus the operator.
所以，我们不能确定他们是否拥有任何贷款设施。但有一个非常好的播客，在焦点运营商上提到了这一点。
I think the podcast is from Damien, who is at Sounders Fund is very, very great podcast that gives you a history of open doors capital stack from like founding to post IPO or the podcast is from 2021.
我觉得这个播客是来自Sounders Fund的Damien，非常非常好的播客，它为你讲述了从创始到上市后的开放式融资的历史，或者这个播客是来自2021年。
I really recommend listening to that if you're really interested in how the sausages may sell on the capital stack of hope, nor and thought specifically said that like Silicon Valley bank was not the right partner to scale and really get to the to the red cost structure.
如果你对香肠在希望的资本堆中的销售方式真的感兴趣，我真的建议你听一听。诺还特别提到硅谷银行不是正确的合作伙伴，无法实现规模化并真正达到红色成本结构。
And I think that's the other point that's important to double tap here is Silicon Valley bank would be a great partner for risky, unproven business model, right, like a startup.
我认为另一个需要重视的点是硅谷银行是一个对于风险高、未经验证的商业模式非常合适的合作伙伴，就像一家初创企业一样。
And because of that increased risk, their interest rates, right, how much they're expected to earn on those assets is a lot higher than you might get at a different bank. That's okay, perhaps, you know, for software companies that are more early stage mid stage and open door early stage, but for company like open door, which is looking for 10% gross profit margins maximum capital efficiency is really, really important and you want the lowest cost structure for your for your debt for your access to financing and Silicon Valley bank is absolutely not that person, right, like they're just it's just a different business model.
因此，由于风险增加，他们的利率会更高，他们预计能够获得的资产收益也会比其他银行高得多。对于那些处于早期和中期的软件公司来说，这可能是可以接受的，但是对于像开放式大门这样寻求最大资本效率的公司来说，最低的借贷成本和融资渠道成本是非常重要的。而硅谷银行绝对不是这个人，这仅仅是一种不同的商业模式。
And so I think really important upfront for open door, but it wouldn't make sense for open door to have any significance or large proportion of funding with Silicon Valley bank at this stage of their life cycle.
所以我认为，为敞开的大门提供重要支持很重要，但在这个阶段，硅谷银行提供的资金对敞开的大门没有任何意义或占据大比例的必要。
Yeah, and it is really important to state like that because she had a lot of speculation on Twitter where because of some headlines people expected the open doors like hundreds of funded by see confetti bank.
是的，这样表述非常重要，因为她在Twitter上引起了很多猜测。由于一些标题，人们期望看到成百上千扶持的机构以及纷云银行所资助的开放式门户。
That's just how this works. It would make sense with what's been going on the past year if that was the end, but it's just not true. So yeah, all right, I'm glad we covered this.
这就是它的工作原理。如果那是结局的话，过去一年发生的事情也许可以解释得通，但这只是不真实的。所以，好的，没错，我很高兴我们讨论了这个问题。
Like what we should expect when next week or maybe we shouldn't anymore because of the announcement from the Fed, but like on Friday, a lot of public companies filed an 8k, a announcement of doing material impact to their business.
就像我们可能在下周期待的那样，或者可能不再期待，因为美联储的公告，但就像上周五，很多公共公司提交了一份8k声明，宣布对他们的业务产生了重大影响。
So a real good answer that they had like price 100 million dollars in in Silicon Valley bank, we hope that we will see something from this from open to as well, because even 1% if it's if you're thinking about a quarterly basis, if that 1% would be gone, it would be kind of material.
他们给出了一个非常好的答案，说他们在硅谷银行里有价值一亿美元的价格。我们希望从开放到结束都能看到一些变化，因为即使是1％的损失，如果您考虑季度基础上，那也是相当重要的。
I think they would have until Wednesday to file this there in a few days, but at this point, we might not even see that fighting anymore because there is no material impact. So we might never know how much money, but actually had the same come value bank, but like it's unlikely that it's a big amount.
我认为他们应该有到星期三的时间来提交文件，现在已经快到截止日期，但是现在可能不会再看到那场争斗了，因为没有实际影响。所以我们可能永远不知道有多少钱，但如果银行里有相同的价值，就算有，也不太可能是很大的数额。
I don't want open door leadership, right, like the C suite to tweet like Elon Musk, but it would be nice every once in a while to just get a few comment.
我不希望领导们像C级干部一样开放，就像Elon Musk一样推特，但是偶尔得到一些评论会很不错。
Imagine if Carrie just logged on to her Twitter with, you know, she's like never on Twitter, but if she just logged on and she was she was like, hey, we don't have any capital in Silicon Valley bank or we had X percentage and just the sigh of relief from the investment community, wouldn't that be a great use of social media, you know what I mean from from like crisis management perspective and investor relations.
想象一下，如果凯莉刚刚登录她的Twitter，你知道她几乎从不使用Twitter，但如果她登录后说：“嘿，我们在硅谷银行没有任何资本，或者我们只有X百分比”，投资社区就能松一口气了。从危机管理和投资者关系角度来看，这不是社交媒体的好运用吗，你知道我的意思。
I just feel like some of these things it would it would just be really nice if it was just solves, you know, with five seconds of work in a bathroom break.
我只是觉得，如果一些事情能够在上洗手间休息五秒钟的时间内就解决了的话，那将会非常好。
Yeah, I totally agree. I mean, there is obviously something to it that you don't want to be on Twitter, especially when you're open because basically 90% what you get is hate and your customers are not there. There's nothing that really is great. There's an advantage to business to be on Twitter every day as Carrie we look, but in these cases, yeah, just like FYI something like that would have been helpful.
是的，我完全同意。我的意思是，很明显有些事让你不想去Twitter，特别是当你是公开的，因为基本上你会收到90%的仇恨，而你的客户也不在那里。实际上没有什么真正伟大的东西。像Carrie那样每天在Twitter上开展业务确实有优势，但在这些情况下，是的，类似“为你提供信息”的东西会很有帮助。
It's not everyone relax, everything is fine, don't worry. I feel like those are the code words for like get your money out right now, right? We've learned that from Silicon Valley bank CEO and obviously Sam Bankman freed they both did the exact same thing. And then the next day the company went under wild. Yeah, I guess in hindsight, it's also good to just wait a few more days and then in primary source that tells me as well, but yeah, some more communication would be helpful.
不是所有人都放松了，一切都很好，不用担心。我觉得这些话像是暗示立刻把钱拿出来的暗语，对吧？我们从硅谷银行的CEO和显然的Sam Bankman Freed那里学到了这一点。然后第二天，公司就疯了。是的，我想回想一下，等几天再考虑也是好的，这也是主要消息来源告诉我的，但是更多的沟通会是有帮助的。
Yeah, I mean, at least we're around to kind of report the years, I guess that that leaves space for us. Maybe maybe that's what it is. It's just like, I don't know, Sebastian Tyler will take care of it sometime. We will take care of investor relations.
是啊，我是说，至少我们在身边可以记录这些年份，我觉得这给了我们一些空间。可能就是这样吧。就像，我不知道，Sebastian Tyler有时会照顾好这件事情。我们会负责投资者关系。
All right. Talking about taking care of people. Open door announced a really interesting new product on last year and it's called list with certainty. What list with certainty is it's currently. A small experimental trial that looks really promising. I think that's that's what we heard from the earnings call.
好的，谈到照顾人的事情。去年，开门公司发布了一个非常有趣的新产品，叫做"有把握清单"。有把握清单目前是一个非常有前途的小型试验项目。我想这就是我们从财报电话会议上听到的内容。
It's another option for sellers that come to open door to sell their home for more basic needs. It's an option for sellers to list on the MLS deal. And that's a product that opened their head before like last year, it was always kind of a hidden option that can come here and they take advantage of the family. If you really want to sell an MLS, you can you can use open during the in the part of the agent.
这是卖家为了更基本的需求而开放大门出售房屋的另一种选择。卖家可以选择在 MLS 上列出房源。去年之前，这通常是一种隐藏的选择，家庭可以利用它。如果您真的想在 MLS 上卖房，可以使用代理方面的开放方式。
What's interesting here is that open door will give you a backup offer. So you list on MLS. Maybe your home is there now for six weeks, but you really need to move in two months. So you can see if you get any additional autism MLS. And then if you don't still take open doors, slightly discounted offer.
这里有趣的是，开放式房门会给你备用的房源。你在MLS上列出了你的房屋。也许你的房子现在已经在那里待了六个星期，但你真的需要在两个月内搬家。因此，你可以看看是否能在MLS上得到任何额外的报价。如果你还没有得到，那么就接受开放式房门稍微打折的报价吧。
It's kind of. It sounds very similar to sell different party marketplace data building. Just without the marketplace part, right Tyler? Yeah, I mean, I think we talked about a little bit about this before the show, but I think one of the things that you mentioned is it's very similar to like the redfin product or the Zillow products, right with the premier agent or you know the redfin agent.
这里的意思是：这有点像出售不同第三方市场数据构建的过程。就是没有市场部分，对吧 Tyler？是的，我的意思是，我们在节目之前已经谈到了这个问题，但是你提到的其中一件事是这很类似于 Redfin 产品或者 Zillow 产品，例如 premier agent 或者 redfin 代理。
But the big difference here is that it has a certainty kicker, which is what you were touching on, right? It's it's like list your home with this agent, get better, you know, more eyeballs, more traffic, etc. But with open door, you also have an offer in your back pocket, which we've talked about this for the marketplace, right? Like that this product can't be built anywhere else because nobody else is buying homes, like open door.
但这里的主要区别是，它有一个确定性奖励，这是你提到的，对吧？就像是你把房子列在这个房产经纪人那里，会得到更好的曝光、更多的流量等。但是 Open Door 也提供一个备用报价，我们已经在市场上谈论过这个问题，对吗？就像这个产品不能在任何地方建立，因为没有其他人像 Open Door 一样买房子。
And so I think that's that's a big value ad here is that one that open door can is the only one that can build this product and it has a greater value proposition than even Zillow and redfin. But two, and this is another thing that we were talking about before the show and perhaps even more important is you don't need to build a marketplace for lists with certainty to have value right to be scalable.
所以我认为这里的一个重要附加值是，只有那个开放的大门才能建造这个产品，它甚至比Zillow和Redfin有更高的价值主张。但是，另一件我们在节目之前谈论的事情，也许更重要的是，你不需要建立一个确定的列表市场才能拥有价值，也能够扩展。
And that's what this is what differentiates list of certainty with the third party marketplace, right? The third party marketplace is going to be a tough thing to build and we've already seen that because they walked back projections for what percentage of transactions this would be materially right away from 30% to like 5% over the space of a few months, expected percent of transactions at the end of 2023.
这就是确定性列表与第三方市场的区别，对吧？建设第三方市场是一项艰巨的任务，我们已经看到这一点，因为他们把交易的百分比，从30%迅速降至5%，在几个月的时间里预计到2023年底交易的百分比。
And the reason is because it's really hard to build a marketplace because you have to aggregate supply to create the demand, you have to create network, network effects. And so I think the third party marketplace has never been built before and it's going to take a lot more work probably than than they assumed upfront.
原因在于，建立一个市场很难，因为你必须聚集供应来创造需求，你必须创建网络，产生网络效应。因此，我认为第三方市场从未建立过，可能需要比他们最初预期的更多的工作。
And so that's that's kind of on one side, but the list with certainty, I mean, you can add that into any of open doors, current markets and really begin to see significant scale, especially since they're talking about 20 to 25% conversion for the list with certainty product in their one market.
那么，这就是一方面的情况，但是有了这个确切的名单，你可以将它加入任何开放的市场中，并真正开始看到显著的规模，特别是因为他们在他们的一个市场中谈到了20%到25%的转化率，对于这个确切的名单产品来说。
Yeah, so in their early experiments, it showed that 20 to 25% conversion rate of new sellers, that means they're looking at us that actually ended up selling their home one and less of some other means versus 10% which is the Korean conversion rate on the first party offers.
嗯，他们早期的实验显示，新卖家的转化率为20到25％，也就是说，他们正看着我们，实际上最终只以某些其他方式卖掉了自己的房子，而不是第一方报价的韩国转化率为10％。
So, it's a way for them to monetize their funnel of seller leads, right. And they don't necessarily have to give them to like another platform, they don't have to send them to Zillow or to redfin. They can do this in house, they have partner agents with a pretty solid economic incentive. If we look at what the seller would pay, they would still pay a 5% fee, which is lower than the 6% you would pay with a regular realtor and that sees them shared with partner agent.
嗯，所以这是他们赚取卖家线索的一种方式，对吗。他们不一定要把它们转移到另一个平台上，也不必将它们发送到Zillow或redfin。他们可以自己做，他们有合作代理商，有相当可靠的经济激励措施。如果我们看一下卖家会支付多少费用，他们仍然会支付5％的费用，这比普通房地产经纪人收取的6％低，而这些费用会与合作伙伴代理商分享。
It's likely if the economics are anything that they were in the past with list with all lists with open or product, it's probably like 1.5% that goes to open door and then there's a part that goes to the by agent and their risk goes to the part agent. It's a pretty great capital light product and on the fall back offer, obviously that fall back offer is this kind of the drawback, right.
如果经济状况与以往一样，如开放房产清单等产品，有可能约有1.5%的收益会进入开放门户，其余部分会归经纪人所有，他们的风险则由该经纪人承担。这是一个相当好的资本轻型产品，在回溯方面可能存在一些缺失。
You cannot give the same offer that you would have given if it was listed on MLS because obviously if the home lists once and it gets removed from the market, it's actually the next buyer is looking at the history of that home and says, hey, that was listed never sold. It likely is not worth what it was worth when it was initially listed, which gives a head to the value of the whole. So there's a discount that a deeper discount for open door when buying this home as well.
你不可能给予跟MLS上的房源同样的报价，因为如果这个房子曾经挂出过，但后来又下架了，下一位买家看到这个房子的历史记录时，很有可能会发现它从来没有卖出去。所以，这个房子的价值很可能不如它最初挂出时那么高，这就影响了整个房价。因此，Open Door购买这个房子的价格将有更大的折扣。
Just an upset in a downside, it's a downside for the seller definitely. I'm doing a downside of the sellers for the seller, I think where I'm a little bit concerned here, there's going to be a lot of options for sellers, right. Let's say in the year from now and a year and a half from now, they have their first party offer, there's the first party marketplace and there's list of open door.
只是一个下跌趋势中的波动，对卖方来说绝对是个下跌趋势。我正在为卖方做出一份卖方的下跌趋势分析，我认为在这里我有点担心，将会有很多卖方选项。比如说从现在开始一年到一年半，有第一方报价、第一方市场以及开放门户列表。
There's a decision that the seller has to make between free choices, obviously will capture that been kind of an interesting into a flow through the whole person that makes sense for the summer, you see your first party offer, if you're not happy with it, you have the options to listen to the first party marketplace for a week with one showing. And then if you're still not happy with any of the offers, you can list those on the MLS which did the backstop offer, but it's a lot less, lot less certainly than what we have a year ago.
卖家需要做一个决定，有多种选择，显然能够使整个人在夏季中保持趣味盎然的流畅性，您将看到第一方提供的要约，如果您不满意，您可以选择在第一方市场展示一周。如果您仍然对任何报价都不满意，您可以在MLS上列出这些报价，这是一个后备报价，但它要少得多，肯定不如一年前。
We go to open door, you get an amazing offer that is at market rate because we had crazy home press adriciation and there's no reason to not say yesterday. It's I almost wonder if there's some sort of goal to list homes concurrently like lists on the MLS in addition to being listed on the marketplace, I don't know what the regulatory stances on that, but from a consumer perspective, if open door was just like, hey, we're in charge of selling your home.
我们去开门，你可以得到市场价的惊人优惠，因为我们非常欣赏你的房子，而且昨天没有任何理由不说出来。我几乎想知道是否有一种同时将房屋列在MLS清单和市场上的目标，我不知道监管部门对此的立场，但从消费者的角度来看，如果开放门只是说，嘿，我们负责卖你的房子。
Give us the information we're going to list the MLS, we're going to list on our exclusives marketplace, you can choose, but we'll get, we'll simulate all these offers for you and explain them, you know what I mean, I feel like as a consumer that that would be most valuable to me as opposed to, you know, we study residential real estate, right, but if let's say that we don't and we're just trying to sell our home.
给我们提供我们将在我们的独家市场上列出的MLS（多个上市服务）信息，你可以选择，但我们会为你模拟所有这些报价并解释它们。你知道我的意思吧，作为一个消费者，我觉得这对我来说是最有价值的，而不是我们研究住宅房地产，对吧？但假设我们不研究，只是想卖掉我们的房子。
Like you said, if I, if I have to go through this funnel and just be like, I don't know, like I've seen. I don't know, like I've three options and they, they all require a lot of fine print that could be a little bit confusing, but if it's just like, hey, either take this cash offer or we will sell your home, that seems like an easier funnel for me to walk through easier for me to convert.
就像你说的，如果我必须经过这个漏斗，然后就像我所看到的那样，我不知道该怎么办。我有三个选项，它们都需要很多细节描述，可能会有一些混淆，但是如果只是像这样，要么接受现金报价，要么我们将出售您的房屋，这似乎更容易让我走过漏斗，更容易让我转化成功。
And probably faster from a sales perspective for open doors, well, because if they're listening on the MLS and trying to get offers plus, assimilating offers on exclusives, right, those two things are happening at the same time, which whatever, whichever one is faster wins, you know, in that idea, but I don't know, we haven't gotten any, any commentary around that.
可能从销售角度来说，对于开放大门来说更快，因为如果他们在 MLS 上倾听并尝试获得报价，再加上以排他方式获得报价，这两件事情同时发生，无论哪种更快，都获胜，你知道，在那个想法中，但我不知道，我们还没有得到任何评论。
Ideally, I would go to open door and tell them by when I need to have my home sold. If it's in two weeks, I'm going to get the cash, so the first party offer, they tell me, hey, we can listen to an exclusives for a week with one showing to get you more. But the end of the week I can select the offer that they want and I'm done.
理想情况下，我会去打开门，告诉房产中介我需要在什么时候把我的房子卖掉。如果是两周内，我就可以拿到现金，第一个报价的买家会告诉我，嘿，我们可以独占一周的时间，仅仅进行一次展示，让你得到更好的报价。但是到了周末，我可以选择他们最喜欢的报价，然后就完成了。
If I ask eight weeks to sell a home, they should just take care of that. And in the seventh week, show me all the offers I have. And I just choose whatever price or whatever buyer I like the most. Yeah. If you can really simplify it down, like as a seller, I don't care where the home goes, right, I just want it. Did it make a maximum price for. Yeah.
如果我要求八周内卖出房子，他们应该只需要负责这件事。在第七周时，给我展示所有的报价。然后我只选择价格或买家最合适的那个。对，如果你能真正简化它，就像作为卖方，我不关心房子去哪里，我只是想卖出它，得到最高的价格。没错。
And that's kind of what I think we're both getting at is selling a home and we've talked about this in the past, selling a home is just about finance. It's just how do I maximize two things, right, convenience and how much money I'm making. That's all that matters for selling a home, buying a home very different, very nuanced, very personal, right, less about money.
我认为我们想表达的是售房并不只是简单的金融问题。售房需要考虑两件事情：方便和盈利，我们以前也讨论过这个问题。售房只考虑这两方面，而买房则非常不同、更加微妙和个人化，不那么注重金钱。
I mean, money is still important, but on the axis of importance, it's, it's much lower. And so if we can simplify that process or just maximize convenience and sell our equity, then I think that there's, there's a great chance for a high conversion.
我是说，钱仍然很重要，但在重要性轴上，它的重要性更低。因此，如果我们可以简化这个过程或者尽量增加便利性，然后出售我们的股权，我认为有很大机会进行高转化。
That said, one of the things that we haven't talked about before for this was certainty plus their first party businesses. Here's the current situation for open door in this down market where they've got these massive spreads, right, open doors currently converting one out of 10 real sellers to buy their home because they're offering such low, such, you know, low prices for these homes, so they have a conservative buffer on their gross margins that only one in 10 real sellers are converting.
话虽如此，我们之前没有讨论过Open Door的确定性和他们的第一方业务。在这个下行市场中，Open Door的现状是他们的价差非常大，他们当前正在将10个真实卖家中的一个转化为购买他们的房屋，因为他们提供如此低的价格。因此，他们在毛利方面保守缓冲，只有10个真实卖家中的一个进行转化。
But in this one market where the testing out list with certainty, they're getting conversion of about 20 to 25%. And now these two figures compared to open doors historical 30 to 35% conversion of their first party business when they were placing offers at or slightly above homes values when HPA was going on this.
在这个市场中，测试列表的转化率可以达到20％至25％。这两个数字与开放门的第一方业务的历史转化率相比较，当时他们在HPA进行时以房屋价值或略高的价钱提供报价，转化率在30％至35％之间。
And so I think what I'm most excited about for list with certainty and the third party's third party marketplace is finding a way to turn these. Unconverting real sellers into converting open door customers, whether that's through their first party funnel, their list with certainty or the third party marketplace.
所以，我认为最令人兴奋的事情，是能找到一种把这些没有转化的真实卖家转化为开放客户的方法。无论是通过他们的第一方销售渠道、他们的“确信清单”还是第三方市场。
And so if there's a version of open door in the future where they don't need to have such wide spreads, maybe we get back to the I don't think we ever should get back to 30 35% because they're probably offering too much for homes for their cost structure for first party.
因此，如果未来有一种开放式门户的版本，他们不需要有如此宽泛的利润率，也许我们会回到我认为我们永远不应该回到30到35％的利润率，因为他们可能为第一方提供的房屋成本结构过高。
But let's say we're back at like 25% 20 to 25% for the first party business. And then, you know, if you're able to get 10 to 20% for list with certainty, 10 to 20% for the third party marketplace. Suddenly, even with the exact same amount of sales marketing, advertising, et cetera, they have a much more monetizable funnel because all of those consumers that used to be lost because they said, I don't want to sell my home to open door or at that price or whatever it was.
但是假设我们现在回到了最初的业务的25%或20%。如果您能够确信地获得10%到20%的清单，以及10%到20%的第三方市场。那么，即使销售营销和广告费用相同，他们的漏斗也更具有可盈利性，因为所有那些曾经因为说：“我不想将我的房子卖给OpenDoor或出售价格太低等原因”而失去了的消费者，现在都能够被挽留。
Now they have different options for products that they can go through. And I think that's a very real possibility if open doors able to get these products right.
现在他们有不同的产品选择可以浏览。如果敞开大门能够让这些产品正确地销售，我认为这是非常实际的可能性。
Yeah, it's kind of the forcing function of the market way in right now. And maybe that's a good thing is I'm pretty impressed how open doors involving their product. They're not just sitting on their hands waiting to finish to go back. Great was last year. No, they they're coming up with experiments.
是的，目前市场的推动力有点像这样。也许这是一件好事，我对他们的产品参与度非常印象深刻。他们不是坐在那里等待完成并回去。去年很棒。不，他们正在进行实验。
They probably tried a bunch of more things that we never hear about, but this list is certainly things kind of clicked with a lot of their sellers. And that's what they will double down on together with the marketplace.
他们可能尝试了很多我们从未听说过的事情，但这份清单确实是与许多卖家产生了共鸣的东西。这就是他们将会和市场一起加倍投注的东西。
And they will get stronger out of this wherever the housing market goes. And hopefully by the end of the beginning of next year, things look a lot better. And they have another piece that just monitors a lot better than the business before. Yeah, pretty exciting. And we will hopefully see more about that. Next earnings call sometimes in May.
他们将因此变得更加强大，无论住房市场走向如何。希望到明年年初末，情况会好很多。而且，他们还有另一种监控业务比以前更好。很令人兴奋。我们希望在5月份的下一次财报电话会议上能了解更多信息。
And talking about the next earnings call. How is the pen. We have a listener question from from the discord from I shark. And he's asking, how depending margins currently look like are we better we improving or is this sentiment going to the other direction right now.
谈到下一个财报电话，笔的情况怎么样？我们来自 Discord 中的听众 I Shark 提出了一个问题。他问，现在利润率是怎样的，我们是在变得更好还是正在朝另一个方向发展。
Yeah. Pending gross margins are definitely improving and they have basically throughout the entirety of early 2023. And since October really pending margins have continued to improve from negative to now they're well into positive territory. Still lower than then we'd like for the company and still definitely sub four to six percent contribution profit margin targets, but moving in the right direction.
是的。未决毛利率肯定在改善，基本上贯穿了整个 2023 年初。自 10 月份以来，未决毛利率一直在从负数向积极领域改善。目前虽然仍然低于公司期望的四至六个百分点的利润贡献率目标，但朝着正确的方向前进。
And I think to add a little color to that because we're not going to share actual numbers for pending gross margin. I think that's really valuable data. And so we we reserve that kind of thing for the data door subscribers.
我想加一点色彩，因为我们不会分享有待完成毛利率的实际数字，我觉得那是非常有价值的数据。因此我们保留这种信息，只提供给数据门户的订阅者。
But just sort of adding a little color to what margins might look like for the remainder of the year. One of the things that I think I'm most excited about as someone who's constructive on open door long term is when you look at the percentage of home sales that open doors currently seeing that are still the Q2 offer cohort.
只是想给今年余下时间之间的毛利润增添一些色彩。作为一个长期看好开门事业的人，我认为最令人兴奋的一件事是，当你看到开门目前正在看到的房屋销售所占的百分比，它们仍然是Q2的优惠组合。
By that I mean homes that open door bought between the months of April and August 2022 in Q4 it was 90% in Q1 at 60% and in Q2 it's looking like it's going to be 40 to 55% somewhere around there.
我的意思是指2022年4月至8月期间购买的开放门式住宅，在Q4时占比90%，Q1时为60%，而Q2的占比似乎在40%至55%左右。
But beyond Q2 that percentage is going to be sub 20% I think of of all sales and possibly you know even even lower than that and the reason that that's important is because the gross margins on these homes that were purchased and sold after the Q2 offer cohort are spectacular right I mean pretty much 10 plus percent for every monthly cohort after September.
但在Q2之后，这个百分比将会低于20%，我认为所有销售额也可能会更低，因为这很重要的原因是这些在Q2优惠期后购买和出售的房屋的毛利率非常高，就是说每个月的群体销售增长率在9月之后基本上每个月都能达到10%以上。
And that we've seen so far and I think that really has implications for open doors bottom line as we move into the second half of the year I think Q1 and Q2 are so going to be under tremendous pressure because not the majority for Q2 at least but the majority of the homes in Q1 are still going to be Q2 offer cohort homes in Q2 it's going to be close to half. So I think there's still going to see a lot of pressure a lot of margins drag but after those quarters it's really just going to be these these homes sold with these massive fat spreads and so I think open doors going to surprise the upside on on margins as we move into the second half.
我认为我们到目前为止看到的情况对于Open Doors的利润有着很大的影响，尤其是在今年下半年。我认为Q1和Q2将继续面临巨大的压力，因为至少Q1中的大部分房屋仍然属于Q2提供的同龄人群，Q2中将接近一半。因此，我认为仍然会看到很大的压力和很多边际拖累，但过了这些季度之后，就只有这些利润巨大的房屋销售了。因此，我认为Open Doors在下半年的利润会有惊喜。
That said if we have some you know existential shock to the housing market like mortgage rates go up another 3% or something like that I mean open doors probably hose in that situation but assuming that there's some semblance of stability in the macro the second half of 2023 should be really excellent gross margins for open door. Yeah we've seen that was another listener question is if we've seen any impact from the rising interest rates because we've seen interest rates go from sub 6% or to to over 7% in the in the last 45 weeks.
说实在的，如果我们遇到了一些像房屋抵押利率再上涨3%之类的存在性冲击，我是指开放门可能会处于困境，但假设宏观经济有些稳定，2023年下半年应该会是开放门非常出色的毛利率。我们确实看到有些影响来自不断上升的利率，因为我们看到利率从6%以下涨到了在过去的45周内超过了7%。
If we look at depending data especially it adjusts seasonality I don't think we've seen any impact on on on pending sales for open door right. I think it's here let me let me pull it up I think the one the one caveat to that would be volumes right like I do think that volumes are going to peak in the spring and I think those are going to be the highest for at least a year probably but but if you look back at like 2022 for example volumes peak to the exact same time so to your point there's a seasonal element to that I think I think that.
如果我们特别关注依赖数据，尤其是季节性调整，我不认为我们会看到任何影响开门待售的待售量。我相信这里有一个——让我找找，我认为唯一的例外是数量，就是我认为数量会在春天达到峰值，至少一年内是最高的，但是如果你回顾一下，比如2022年，数量在同一时间也达到峰值，所以从你所说的角度来看，这是有季节性因素的，我认为是这样的。
There's there's two things probably influencing that for right now one maybe some mortgage hesitation some some buyer hesitation and the fact that there's not a lot of inventory available but also I think the second thing really driving a deceleration in pending volumes is that open door just has doesn't have any new homes right there they're just not buying enough homes they're selling more homes and they're buying and I think because they don't have a lot of. Fresh inventory the homes that they're currently trying to sell or increasingly we're going to be trying to sell are the you know the drugs of the barrel the last home sold the Q2 Africa or which I think you're going to be really difficult to sell and that's going to add inertia to their pending pipeline.
现在有两个可能影响这个情况的因素，其中一个可能是抵押贷款的犹豫，另一个可能是购房者的犹豫，以及可用的房源不多。但我认为第二个影响挂起交易量减缓的因素是开放门没有新的房屋可供购买，他们只是出售更多的房屋，而不是购买。因为他们没有很多新房源，他们当前正在尝试出售的房屋将越来越难以出售，这些房屋是最后出售的那些，q2非洲或者说是低价位的房屋，我认为这将增加他们的挂起交易数量的惯性。
And obviously it's really hard to tell where more trades are going especially with what happened at the end of last week it's like the most likely outcome right now is the mortgage is going to go down from here but who knows so it what. 2023 doesn't it is really not disappointing in the amount of excitement that it's just a roller coaster so start the beginning so yeah that probably explains the really widespread because like whenever happens open risk is trying to get fruit is as unscrupulous possible so.
很明显，现在很难说交易会往哪里走，特别是考虑到上周末发生的事情，目前最有可能的结果是按揭将从这里开始下降，但是谁知道呢。到2023年，它并没有让人失望，但激动人心的程度也有点像过山车，从一开始就是如此，所以很可能解释了为什么这么广泛。因为无论发生什么事情，风险开放都会尽可能不择手段地获取利润。
Yeah I think I think that was actually a question on the Twitter spaces to is if there was another downturn what would happen to open door and I I think reflecting on that they really are. Pretty conservatively position in terms of the margins of the new cohorts at this point I mean even even if things dropped the amount that they did in the summer of 2022 I mean the cushion that they have is is at least two to three times what it was at that time and they're buying so few homes that the impact would be much much much smaller. I think it would be still a huge risk to to the solvency of open doors business but they're they're positioned much more conservatively much more poised for for something like that to happen.
我想，实际上在 Twitter spaces 上确实有一个问题，即如果出现另一次下行，Open Door 会发生什么。回想一下，他们对于新一批的利润率非常谨慎，即使在2022年夏季期间出现的下降（情况糟糕）的情况下，他们有的缓冲区至少是当时的两到三倍，并且他们购买的房屋数量非常少，影响会更小。我认为，这仍然是 Open Door 业务偿债的巨大风险，但他们的立场更加谨慎，更加为这种情况做好了准备。
Alright that that's some really good closing thoughts here from Tyler that's it for today's episode make sure to subscribe and like this video it really helps us out you should also join our discord at data door that I was such community and let us know if you have any other topics for us to discuss in future episodes any questions and obviously sign up for data door atoms to see.
好的，Tyler在这里提出了一些非常好的结论，今天的节目到此为止。记得订阅和点赞本视频，这会真正帮助我们。你也应该加入我们的Discord，Data Door，那里是一个很棒的社区，如果你有任何未来节目讨论的主题或问题，请告诉我们。当然，你也可以注册Data Door Atoms来了解更多。
The numbers the sales numbers almost in real time and and here what we have to say in specific. Alright thanks Tyler yeah thanks man.
这些销售数字几乎是实时的，以下是我们要具体提到的事情。好的，谢谢 Tyler，谢谢啊。