Markets Weekly February 17, 2024

Hello my friends, today is February 17th and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week we saw the S&P 500 again make a new all time high, but we did close the week down a little bit. It looks like the equity markets are having some problems with the higher than expected inflation prints. So this week we're going to talk about three things. First, over the past week the big data we got was a number of higher than expected inflation prints and it seems like inflation may potentially be rising again. Let's talk about the data.

大家好，今天是2月17日，欢迎收听《市场周报》。上个星期我们看到标普500指数再次创下历史新高，但是最终收盘时有所下跌。看起来股市对高于预期的通胀数据有些困扰。本周我们将讨论三个问题。首先，过去一周我们得到的重要数据是一系列高于预期的通胀数据，看起来通胀可能再次上升。让我们来探讨一下这些数据。

Secondly, so we've been talking about the S&P 500 making a lot of all time highs. Let's look beneath the surface and see what might be driving that action and also zoom out a bit and notice that the equity market boom is not just US specific, but it's something that's happening in other countries as well. And lastly, I want to talk a little bit about GDP and GDP per capita. My source of headlines of Japan falling into recession and I think that's the wrong way to look at that, especially for a country like Japan. So let's talk about why GDP per capita may be a more relevant measure of performance going forward, especially in aging countries with aging populations.

其次，我们一直在谈论标普500创造了许多历史新高。让我们深入了解一下表面之下可能推动这种行动的因素，同时也放大一些看到股票市场繁荣并不仅仅局限于美国，而是也发生在其他国家。最后，我想谈一下GDP和人均GDP。我看到新闻报道了日本陷入经济衰退，我觉得这种看法可能是错误的，特别是对于像日本这样的国家。让我们探讨一下为什么人均GDP可能是一个更相关的未来绩效衡量指标，特别是对于人口老龄化的国家。

Okay, now starting with the inflation data. So just to level set a little bit, over the past two years we've had very high inflation, CPI as high as 9%, that has very clearly been moderating. So over the past six months, looking at the Fed's favorite measure inflation, core PCE, we can see that inflation core PC has been at 2% for the past six months. And so for my perspective, I think the Fed already achieved soft landing. The question was, is inflation going to research or are we going to tumble into recession? And as you all know, I have my view has always been that inflation would research, but not now later on in the year. However, the data prints that we got last week were undeniably hot and seem to suggest that maybe inflation is researching now.

好的，现在开始讨论通货膨胀数据。所以只是简要说明一下，过去两年我们经历了非常高的通货膨胀，CPI高达9%，但显然已经在逐渐减缓。在过去六个月里，看看美联储最喜欢的通货膨胀指标核心PCE，我们可以看到过去六个月通货膨胀核心PCE一直保持在2%。就我个人的观点来看，我认为美联储已经实现了软着陆。问题是，通货膨胀会再度加剧，还是我们会陷入衰退？如大家所知，我的观点一直是通货膨胀会再度加剧，但不是现在，而是今年晚些时候。然而，上周我们得到的数据显示无可否认是炙手可热的，似乎表明通货膨胀现在正在再度加剧。

So the first inflation data we got was CPI. Now, CPI measures consumer prices and CPI month over month core was 0.4%. If you analyze that, you get to a number that's above 4% on an annual rate. So it's without doubt a high print. Now the key driver of this hot CPI print was the shelter component, which is basically rents. Now many people have been expecting shelter to, shelter inflation to gradually moderate, because when they look at leading a rent indexes, say those from Zillow, they can see that rent inflation has been monitoring significantly over the past few months. So this jump in shelter inflation was a surprise. However, looking at the other components in the CPI index, you can see that it wasn't just shelter, it was broadly a hot print. You can see medical services heating up, and you can also see food inflation rising as well. So this was without doubt a hot CPI print.

因此，我们得到的第一份通货膨胀数据是消费者价格指数。现在，消费者价格指数衡量消费品价格，月环比核心指数为0.4%。如果进行分析，年度增长率就会超过4%。毫无疑问，这是一个高位数字。现在，这个炙手可热的消费者价格指数的主要推动因素是住房组成，基本上是租金。许多人一直期待住房通货膨胀逐渐降低，因为当他们查看领先的租金指数，比如来自Zillow的指数，他们可以看到过去几个月租金通货膨胀明显放缓。因此，这次住房通货膨胀的激增令人意外。然而，看一看消费者价格指数中的其他组成部分，你会看到不仅仅是住房，整体上都是炙手可热的数据。你会看到医疗服务价格上涨，也会看到食物价格通货膨胀加剧。因此，这无疑是一个炙手可热的消费者价格指数数据。

Now the second inflation data we got the past week was much less well known, but also notable and that's input prices. Input prices, again, it's third tier data at best, but it was also higher than expected. Now the third piece of inflation data we got the past week was on Friday, and that is PPI. PPI measures prices that businesses pay. PPI was without question hotter than expected across the board. So it was a print that surprised the market. And the market's reaction to these prints was, of course, for bonds to sell off, although that reaction for CPI was temporary, but for PPI seemingly more lasting. Now a reason for that could be because PPI feeds into PCE. So among the inflation indexes, the Fed cares about PCE.

上周我们收到的第二笔通胀数据并不那么出名，但也很显着，那就是输入价格。输入价格，在最好的情况下，也只是第三梯队数据，但它的涨幅也超过了预期。我们上周收到的第三笔通胀数据是周五公布的PPI数据。PPI衡量的是企业支付的价格。毫无疑问，PPI的数据在各方面都比预期的热。这是一个出乎市场预料的数据。市场对这些数据的反应当然是债券抛售，尽管CPI的反应是暂时的，但对于PPI似乎更持久。其中一个原因可能是因为PPI影响PCE。在通胀指数中，美联储关心PCE。

Now if you know CPI, if you know PPI, you can get a pretty good estimate as to what PCE will be when it comes out. The big banks have looked at the data and run their own numbers, and they are estimating that PCE will come in at about 0.4% a month, which again, if you analyze that, you get something about 4%, which is far above the Fed's 2% target. So the data we're getting shows that we're hitting into some, I guess, some lumpingness in the disinflation narrative.

如果你了解CPI，了解PPI，那么当PCE发布时，你就可以得到一个相当不错的预估。大型银行已经查看了数据并运行了它们自己的数字，他们预计PCE每月将约为0.4%，再次分析后会得出大约4%的结论，这远远超过了美联储的2%目标。所以我们获得的数据显示，我们正在陷入一些通货紧缩叙事的深渊里。

Now to be clear, this was always expected. Disinflation is very unlikely to be smooth, but then now it's an open question as to whether or not we're hitting into just some temporary bumpiness in the right towards 2%, or are we at the beginning of a new trend, or maybe we either trend higher or stay around here. Now the equity markets, of course, don't like this because when they see higher than expected inflation, then they begin to think that maybe the Fed is not going to cut as quickly and as much as they have been expected.

现在要清楚，这总是预料中的。通货紧缩很不可能顺利进行，不过现在问题是我们是不是遇到了通往2%的一些暂时波动，还是我们正在新趋势的起点，或者我们可能要往更高的趋势走，或者维持当前水平不变。当股票市场看到高于预期的通货膨胀时，他们开始觉得也许联邦储备委员会不会如预期那样快速削减利率了。

Now recall, just a few weeks ago, the market was pricing in as many as seven rate cuts this year. That's ridiculous, of course. But as of Friday, it looks like the market is just pricing in four, and this week I will write about what I think the Fed would do in reaction to this data going forward. But this is definitely going to be a market mover, so we have to pay close attention to how the data evolves. Okay, second thing I want to talk about is, of course, the equity market. So as you'll know, since December, I've been writing about the potential for a crash up, and I've also told you that I'm really cautious right now. So equity markets have been relentlessly marching higher in the US. And from my read, it seems like, okay, first the macro backdrop is, of course, positive for equities, as I've talked about before, but it seems like there's a lot of speculation here, especially through options.

现在回想一下，就在几周前，市场预计今年会有高达七次的降息。当然，那是荒谬的。但直到星期五，市场似乎只预计四次，本周我将写关于我认为联邦储备系统对这些数据的反应。但这肯定会成为市场的推动因素，所以我们必须密切关注数据的发展。好的，我想谈谈的第二件事当然是股市。正如你们所知，自去年12月以来，我一直在谈论股市可能会暴涨，并且我也告诉过你们我现在非常谨慎。美国股市一直在不停地向上走。从我的判断来看，宏观背景当然对股市是正面的，正如我之前所说，但似乎有很多投机，尤其是通过期权。

So there's this good data from Spot Gamma, who specializes in these options things, and they're showing that their data is showing that there seems to be a lot of interest in buying calls. So there's a lot of people buying calls, and that seems to be pushing the market higher and higher. Now the way these things work, as I understand, is that after every options expiry, there's less hedging that dealers market makers have to do. And so there's more freedom for the index to move around, and we just had an options expiry on Friday, and so maybe there'd be more volatility going forward. But when you have a lot of movement upwards driven by options, it can be very volatile. Let's look at Super Microcomputer, for example. As we all know, this is an AI in darling, because the company makes servers that are needed for AI companies.

有一家专门从事期权交易的公司Spot Gamma发布了一些有趣的数据，显示出市场似乎对买入看涨期权很感兴趣。许多人在买入看涨期权，这似乎推动了市场越来越高。据我了解，这些交易方式的运作方式是每次期权到期后，市场制造商的对冲需求就会减少。这样指数就有更多的自由移动空间，而上周五刚刚发生了期权到期，也许今后会有更多的波动。但是当市场受到期权推动大幅上涨时，波动性会很大。我们来看看超微计算机，例如。众所周知，这是人工智能的宠儿，因为该公司制造了AI公司所需的服务器。

And the stock is basically rocketed higher, and in large part due to a whole bunch of people buying calls and pushing the stock price higher. And it's gone to the moon, just like games stop not too long ago. But when you have these large surges higher, they tend to be fairly volatile and fragile. And so on Friday, we saw just in one day the stock dropped by 20%. So if you see a lot of upper pressure in any asset due to options, you should know that it's a fragile thing. So it's something to be cautious about. Again, I remain very positive on the equity markets. It's just that nothing goes up in a straight line. But let's zoom out a little bit and look across the world. So across the world, what you'll notice is that, say, let's say Japan, the Nikkei has been on a tear in almost, almost at its all-time highs that it hits a few decades ago.

股价实际上是大幅攀升，主要是由于大量的人买入期权，并推高了股价。就像不久前的游戏站一样，它已经冲上了天空。但是当股价大幅上涨时，往往会相当容易受到波动和脆弱性的影响。所以在星期五，我们看到股价在一天内下跌了20%。所以如果你看到任何资产由于期权而遭受上涨压力，你应该知道这是一个脆弱的事情。所以这是一个需要谨慎对待的事情。再一次，我对股票市场持非常乐观的态度。只是没有什么是直线上涨的。但让我们放大一点，看看全世界。所以在全世界，你会注意到，比如说，让我们来看看日本，日经指数几乎一路飙升，几乎接近几十年前的历史最高点。

So sometimes the stock market can go down and not go up for decades. It happens sometimes. It's not always up, up, in a way. But anyway, in Japan, things have been going very well for the stock market. And if you look at Germany, let's say the DAX, you can see the DAX is at all-time highs as well, even as the Germany economy stagnates. So when I think about what drives equity markets, I think the most important thing, of course, is public policy, particularly central bank policy. So we are engaging upon a global rate cut cycle. And I think the equity market is reacting to that as well.

因此，有时股市可能会下跌，数十年来没有上涨。这有时会发生。它不总是上升的。但无论如何，在日本，股市的情况一直非常好。如果你看看德国，比如德国DAX指数，你会看到即使德国经济停滞，DAX指数也创下了历史新高。所以当我考虑是什么推动股票市场时，我认为最重要的当然是公共政策，特别是央行政策。因此，我们正在进行全球降息周期。我认为股市也在对此作出反应。

This is something that I think is probably going to continue going forward. But I think it's useful to know that what's happening in the US is not special to the US, although the US markets do seem to be stronger than other markets. Now, one other thing to note is that when people analyze equities, they often tie them to things like economic growth or earnings and so forth. But Japan, following into recession, Germany stagnating. So it's important to be able to look at things clearly and not necessarily take our face to value what we often say read in textbooks. Okay, now the third thing that I want to talk about is GDP growth and GDP per capita. Now I saw a headline the past week about Japan tumbling into recession because technically the economy has contracted for two consecutive quarters.

我认为这种情况可能会继续下去。但我认为了解美国发生的事情并不是只有美国特有的，尽管美国市场似乎比其他市场更强大。另一件需要注意的事情是，当人们分析股票时，他们经常会将它们与经济增长或盈利等因素联系起来。但是，日本陷入衰退，德国停滞不前。因此，重要的是要能够清晰地看待事物，不一定要将我们通常在教科书中读到的东西看作面值。现在，我想谈一下的第三个事情是GDP增长和人均GDP。我在过去一周看到一个头条新闻说日本陷入衰退，因为从技术上讲，经济连续两个季度收缩。

Now on a broad level, so GDP is the amount of goods and services a country produces in one year. And if you produce, say, if you're producing a decreasing amount of goods and services on a quarter over quarter basis, they think we describe the economy as falling into recession because you're not producing as much. So how do you produce more goods and services? On the one hand, you can add more inputs, that is to say have more people, maybe work longer hours, or you can be more productive. So you can say, take the same amount of inputs, the same amount of people, same amount of materials, and just use them and clever away through technology and be able to produce more.

在一个广义的层面上，GDP是一个国家在一年内生产的商品和服务的总量。如果你生产的商品和服务数量在季度基础上下降，他们会认为经济陷入衰退，因为你没有生产出更多。那么如何生产更多的商品和服务呢？一方面，你可以增加更多的投入，也就是说增加更多的人力资源，也许延长工作时间，或者你可以提高生产效率。也就是说，你可以用相同的投入，相同的人力资源，相同的材料，通过技术的巧妙运用来生产更多的产品。

So to get higher GDP, you need more inputs or you need more productivity. So I think it's not useful to look at Japan and say it's falling into recession and so forth. Because Japan, what's happening in Japan is basically what is happening throughout the western road is that population is declining. In Japan in particular, their population has been declining for decades. Now look at this chart of their working age population. You'll see that it hit its peak quite a while ago and has really, really declined rapidly. The same time, the US working age population steadily rose, looks like it's plateauing and will likely tip over in the coming years.

因此，要提高GDP，你需要更多的投入或者更高的生产力。因此，我认为看日本陷入衰退之类的情况并不有用。因为日本所发生的实际上是整个西方世界所发生的情况，即人口在减少。特别是日本，他们的人口已经几十年来一直在减少。现在看看他们的劳动年龄人口的图表。你会看到它在相当长时间前就达到了高峰，然后迅速下降。与此同时，美国的劳动年龄人口稳步增长，看起来正在趋于平稳，可能会在未来几年内出现下滑。

So if you have an economy where your working age population is declining, you're just not going to grow at the same way. In fact, it should be expected that you produce fewer and fewer goods and services. That is to say your GDP declines simply because you have less people. Now that may sound alarming, but I think what matters when it comes to living standards is not GDP, but GDP per capita. That is to say how many goods and services do we produce on a per person basis or how much goods and services does each person enjoy. So if you look at GDP per capita for Japan, you get a very different picture. Now their GDP per capita, it's not growing very quickly, but it continues to grow.

因此，如果你的经济体中工作年龄人口在下降，那么你的经济增长就不会像以前那样。事实上，你产生的货物和服务应该会越来越少。换句话说，你的GDP会下降，只是因为人口减少了。现在听起来可能令人担忧，但我认为在谈论生活水平时重要的不是GDP，而是GDP人均。也就是说，我们每个人生产多少货物和服务，或者每个人享受多少货物和服务。因此，如果你查看日本的人均GDP，就会得到一个截然不同的图景。虽然他们的人均GDP增长速度不是很快，但仍在增长。

So even as their overall GDP may be contracting, that could largely be due to changes in demographics. And so you can have a country with a shrinking GDP, but we're living standards for each person continues to increase and that appears to be the case in Japan. Now going forward, this is going to happen to the US and it's also happening to the Western European countries already. So we have to be careful though not to think too much about a decline in GDP since that's just demographics. Now there are some countries who are importing significant amounts of immigrants because they see their population declining and that is keeping their GDP growth steady.

因此，即使整体 GDP 可能在下降，也很大程度上是由于人口结构的变化。因此，某个国家的 GDP 可能在缩小，但每个人的生活水平仍在提高，这在日本似乎是这种情况。现在未来，这将发生在美国，西欧国家已经出现了这种情况。因此，我们必须谨慎，不要过多考虑 GDP 下降，因为这仅仅是由于人口结构引起的。现在有一些国家在大量引进移民，因为他们看到他们的人口在减少，这就保持了他们的 GDP 增长。

But that doesn't necessarily mean that on a per capita basis, the well-being of their citizens is improving. For example, let's say a country imports millions and millions of very low-scale labor people who don't speak the language and can barely read or write. Now simply by importing these people into their country, the GDP for that country is going to increase. Why? Well these guys, they're going to do something, right? They can wait tables, mow lawns or something like that. So they're producing goods and services and they are contributing to the country. And so the size of the GDP increases.

但这并不一定意味着以人均计算方式，他们公民的福祉正在提高。比如，假设一个国家进口了几百万几乎不会说话也几乎看不懂或写不了字的低产值劳工。仅仅通过将这些人引入国家，该国的GDP就会增加。为什么呢？因为这些人，他们会做一些事情，对吧？他们可以端餐、割草之类的。所以他们正在生产商品和服务，他们正在为国家做贡献。因此GDP 的规模增加了。

But also note that these people, they are going to use medical services, roads, schools and so forth. And so they're very likely going to take from the public service, from the public more than they put in. And so at the end of the day, there's going to be fewer public services and goods and services available to the, on average to everyone. And so your GDP per capita would decline even as your overall GDP increases. And we see this happen in some countries who have experimented with mass migration, where their GDP per capita has basically been stagnant for some time, even though their overall GDP has increased.

但也要注意，这些移民会使用医疗服务、道路、学校等公共服务。因此他们很可能会从公共服务中获益，比他们贡献的要多。因此，最终公共服务和商品会减少，平均每个人可获得的商品和服务也会减少。因此，尽管总体GDP增长，但人均GDP可能会下降。我们可以看到一些实施大规模移民的国家，他们的人均GDP在一段时间内基本上保持不变，尽管总体GDP有所增长。

So going forward, I think we should have a bit more refinement in how we look at this. I'm not sure that it affects policy just yet. But if we are aware of it, maybe eventually the people will be more, we will see it talked about more in that might influence policy. Okay, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you're interested in my latest thoughts, check out my blog, vidguy.com. And of course, my courses at centralbanking101.com, if you're interested in learning about markets. Talk to you all soon.

所以从现在开始，我认为我们应该更加精细地看待这个问题。我还不确定这是否会对政策产生影响。但如果我们意识到了这一点，也许最终人们会更加关注，我们会看到更多关于这个问题的讨论，这可能会影响政策。好的，今天我准备的就是这些。非常感谢你们的聆听。如果你对我的最新想法感兴趣，请查看我的博客vidguy.com。当然，如果你对学习市场感兴趣，也可以查看我的课程centralbanking101.com。很快会再和大家见面。