Tesla 1: The Most Valuable Part of Tesla No One Knows About / Ford Delays EV's, Again ⚡️
发布时间 2024-02-08 01:11:28 来源
摘要
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Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dilunumus, quick shout out to my newest patron Jim. Thank you for choosing to support the channel.
欢迎来到「电动化」，我是你的主持人迪鲁纳姆斯，特别感谢我的最新资助者吉姆。感谢你选择支持本频道。
A German source is reporting that Gigabrelin is set to resume production on February 12th. This, according to the plant manager, Andre Tereg, and the original pause was due to those attacks in the Red Sea. Andre said the supply chains are intact again. Tesla has the necessary security that all necessary production parts are available in sufficient quantities to be able to fully restart. Perhaps more importantly, he said Gigabrelin now has 12,500 employees and he did confirm they hit that 6,000 units produced in one week number. You may recall toward the end of last year, the last update we got on Gigabrelin in terms of employment, they were stuck around 10,000 and there have been a lot of reports that Tesla was having challenges getting to their 12,000 to 12,000 employee target.
德国一家消息来源报道称，吉加布雷林（Gigabrelin）计划于2月12日恢复生产。该工厂经理安德烈·泰雷格（Andre Tereg）表示，最初的暂停是由于红海地区的袭击事件。安德烈表示，供应链已经恢复正常。特斯拉有必要的安全措施，确保所有必要的生产零件都足够数量以完全重启生产。更重要的是，他表示吉加布雷林现在有12500名员工，并且他确认他们达到了每周生产6000辆的目标。您可能还记得去年年底对吉加布雷林的最后一次就业状况的更新，他们当时困在10000人左右，有很多报道称特斯拉在实现其12000到12000员工目标上遇到了困境。
In November last year, around the time that Elon visited Gigabrelin, they did end up announcing a 4% raise for all workers at Gigabrelin. There was also chatter that effective February of this year, all production workers would get an additional salary raise of a few thousand euro. It's great to see Tesla finally hitting their employment target for this phase of production and as far as we can tell, doing everything they can to keep fighting off any unionization efforts at Gigabrelin.
去年11月，正是埃隆访问Gigabrelin期间，他们最终宣布对Gigabrelin所有员工提供4%的加薪。还有传言称，从今年2月开始，所有生产工人将获得额外几千欧元的薪资增加。很高兴看到特斯拉终于实现了这一生产阶段的就业目标，据我们所知，他们正在尽一切努力阻止Gigabrelin出现任何工会化的努力。
Andre said the temporary production stop will not set Tesla back as the factory continues to ramp up. Tesla continues to push ahead with an expansion at Gigabrelin, specifically they were talking about logistics, capacities and a freight station. It would be the first Tesla factory in the world in which transport logistics would be largely shifted to rail away from predominantly trucking. The Tesla supply chains are already quite robust but that's not enough according to Andre, we live in changing times. One look at the evening news is enough, all it takes is a strike and the highways are blocked.
安德烈说，暂时停产不会使特斯拉倒退，因为工厂仍在不断增产。特斯拉在吉加布林继续推进扩张，具体涉及物流、产能和货运站。这将是特斯拉在全球范围内第一个将运输物流主要转向铁路而不是卡车的工厂。特斯拉的供应链已经相当强大，但安德烈表示这还不够，因为我们生活在变化的时代。只需看一眼晚间新闻就足够了，一次罢工就足以封锁高速公路。
This confusing headline is actually a good thing for Tesla, it's just the Ministry of Infrastructure saying that if Tesla's application for factory approval is not approved then other infrastructure buildouts are going to be delayed. As Tesla awaits the approval of its application for expansion at Gigabrelin, the Ministry is warning of a significant burden on the region. If a development plan is not defined, it could significantly slow infrastructure development in the region and prevent the transition of trucks to rail transport. Tesla's expansion includes the construction of a freight station, warehouses and a kindergarten in Grunheida on the land next to the factory. Implementing this plan means freight transportation would be facilitated and the impact of trucks on the environment and traffic on nearby roads would be significantly reduced. Tesla says at least 1000 trucks will be off the road when the freight station is built. Tesla hopes all measures can be completed by 2026. I suppose this should come as no surprise but the Ministry did warn of a potential for ear delay meaning these projects would not be possible until then 2030. We'll hope for the former.
这个令人困惑的标题对特斯拉来说实际上是一件好事，这只是基础设施部表示，如果特斯拉的工厂扩建申请未获批准，那么其他基础设施的建设将会延迟。在特斯拉等待其在吉加布雷琳扩展的申请获得批准时，基础设施部警告该地区将承受巨大负担。如果发展计划未被明确，可能会显著减缓该地区的基础设施发展，并阻止卡车向铁路运输的转型。特斯拉的扩建计划包括在工厂旁边的格伦海达建造一个货运站、仓库和幼儿园。实施这个计划意味着货物运输将得到便利，卡车对环境和附近道路交通的影响将显著减少。特斯拉表示，在货运站建成后，至少将有1000辆卡车不再上路。特斯拉希望所有措施能在2026年之前完成。我想这应该不会让人意外，但基础设施部确实警告可能会出现耳延迟的情况，这意味着这些项目直到2030年才可能实现。我们希望前者成为现实。
There's been plenty of chatter lately about Tesla and Elon not delivering on many different projects while what about all of the ones they have delivered on? This is where trip planner comes in, trip planners are in vehicle routing or navigation system. Other electric vehicle manufacturers will some of them have vehicle side data. Other infrastructure providers have site data but at Tesla we have both and what that allows us to do is to use trip planner to route vehicles towards available sites and away from congested sites so we can balance our utilization without risking wait time. And the results speak for themselves. Over the last few years we've been able to drive up site utilization by 30% that means lower per kilowatt hour costs while also cutting our wait time in half. And we think this can get even better.
最近有很多关于特斯拉和埃隆未能实现许多不同项目的议论声，但是他们已经实现了哪些项目呢？这就是旅行规划器的作用，旅行规划器是车辆路线规划或导航系统。其他电动车制造商有一些车辆侧数据，其他基础设施提供商有一些场地数据，但是在特斯拉，我们拥有两者，这使我们能够使用旅行规划器将车辆引导至可用场地，远离拥堵场地，从而在不冒等待时间风险的情况下平衡我们的利用率。而结果不言而喻。在过去几年中，我们成功提高了场地利用率30%，这意味着每千瓦时成本更低，同时将等待时间减少了一半。而且我们相信这还可以进一步改善。
Today we're feeding trip planner with real time site information and information about vehicles currently at sites. Going forward we'll be moving that to projecting site occupancy based on the understanding of what vehicles are currently routing to those sites and ultimately our vision for trip planner is that it's the air traffic controller for electric vehicle charging across all infrastructure on a global basis. That's important Tesla's plan for the future is to make trip planner the air traffic controller for all EV charging infrastructure not just for superchargers. That leads us to today where Zach shared a new screenshot of the Tesla now predicting how many stalls will be available upon arrival with how many cars are en route. Check it out 41 stalls available on arrival three cars en route 62 stalls total at the station.
今天我们将通过实时站点信息和有关当前站点车辆的信息来为行程规划器提供数据。未来，我们将基于当前路由到这些站点的车辆了解，来预测站点占用情况，并最终实现我们对行程规划器的愿景：它将成为全球范围内电动车充电设施的空中交通管制员。这对于特斯拉来说非常重要，因为我们未来的计划是使行程规划器成为所有电动车充电设施的空中交通管制员，而不仅仅是超级充电站的管制员。这就引出了今天扎克分享的特斯拉新截屏，显示了特斯拉现在可以预测到达时有多少个充电点可用，以及有多少辆车正在路上。来看看吧，有41个充电点可以供到达时使用，目前有3辆车正在路上，该充电站共有62个充电点。
That is really nice and I know we're about to have a lot of non-Tesla vehicles begin using the supercharger network so you would think that the cars en route may be less and less predictable but I'm sure Tesla is working on a way to actually integrate those other non-Tesla vehicles into this system.
那真是太好了，我知道我们即将有许多非特斯拉的车辆开始使用超级充电网络，所以你可能会认为那些在途车辆会变得越来越不可预测，但是我相信特斯拉正在努力找到一种方法，将这些非特斯拉的车辆融入到这个系统中去。
Obviously if a Tesla or non-Tesla just goes to a supercharger without navigating to it it's not going to be able to have an accurate number for cars en route but the real-time number of available stalls alone is a major W. I know some of you may have already had this feature now for a little bit but wanted to make sure everybody was aware.
显然，如果一辆特斯拉或非特斯拉车辆前往超级充电站而没有导航到对应站点，它将无法准确获得在途车辆的数量，但即使仅有可用车位的实时数字，也是一个重要的信息。我知道有些人可能已经有了这个功能一段时间了，但我想确保每个人都知道。
Holmar shared a video that Tesla is still doing these little custom deliver events for Cybertruck owners where they have some smoke and the light show and music playing and some of the employees actually congratulating the new owners. Also on this recent delivery you'll notice still no aero wheel covers I'm assuming they're still working on that solution.
Holmar分享了一个视频，视频中展示了特斯拉为Cybertruck车主举办的小型定制交车活动，现场有烟雾、灯光秀、音乐演奏，还有部分员工向新车主表示祝贺。另外，在最近的交车中你会发现仍然没有空气动力学轮毂罩，我猜他们仍在研究解决方案。
Gordon Johnson is somewhere sipping champagne celebrating Tesla selling one car in Korea in January. Put that drink down go Joe the government has yet to announce a new EV subsidy rule for the year. The new law will likely go into effect as early as February in 2023 alone 13.8 thousand Shanghai made Model Y's were sold in Korea making it the country's number one imported EV in sales. Don't forget the Model Y only launched in Korea in July of last year and first deliveries were around August. For January this year across all car makers the number of new EVs registered in Korea fell 80% from December. Korea is trying to limit EV subsidies from cars coming from China so we'll see what they come up with but people are just waiting to see what the ruling will be.
戈登·约翰逊正在某处品尝香槟庆祝特斯拉在1月份在韩国销售了一辆汽车。放下酒杯，乔，政府尚未宣布今年的新电动车补贴规定。新法律很可能最早于2023年2月开始生效。单单去年7月在韩国销售的13,800辆上海制造的Model Y，就成为了该国销量第一的进口电动车。别忘了，Model Y在去年7月才在韩国上市，首批交付大约在8月。今年1月，韩国所有车辆制造商新注册的电动车数量比12月下降了80%。韩国正试图限制来自中国的电动车补贴，所以我们将看到他们会想出什么办法，但人们只是在等待裁决结果。
As we talked about Tesla recently hired a new country manager for Mexico and a few weeks later we have some new job openings for Mexico mostly in sales service and deliveries. Only one of these nine new jobs are in Monterrey which is indeed in the northern part of Nueva Leone. Tesla is building out the base for the brand in Mexico.
最近我们谈论了特斯拉新近聘用了一位墨西哥的新销售总监，几周后我们在墨西哥有一些新的工作机会，主要涉及销售、服务和交付领域。这九个新职位中只有一个位于蒙特雷，确实，蒙特雷位于新莱昂州北部。特斯拉正在为该品牌在墨西哥构建基础。
It's not every day you see a deal of this size LG Chem signed an 18.6 billion dollar deal to supply EV battery materials to GM over the course of 10 years. LG will supply at least 500,000 tons of cathode materials enough to make batteries for 5 million EVs. These cathode active materials will be made in LG's Tennessee factory which is under construction from 2026. For context LG said the deal price is about half the company's 2022 revenue. Honestly my first thought is what is GM doing. They don't have any proven track record that they're going to have this level of EV demand for the next decade. You like to see GM thinking EV long term of course but either way LG completed a construction of its Tennessee plant in December. It has an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons making it the biggest plant like that in the United States. Most of the supplies that produces will be used by all team cells.
这样的交易并非每天都能见到，LG化学公司与通用汽车签署了一份价值186亿美元的协议，供应电动汽车电池材料，为期10年。LG将提供至少50万吨的正极材料，足够制造500万辆电动汽车的电池。这些正极活性材料将在LG位于田纳西的工厂生产，该工厂预计于2026年建成。LG表示，这个交易价格大约是公司2022年收入的一半。老实说，我最初的想法就是通用汽车在做什么。他们没有任何被证明的迹象表明他们在未来十年将有这种程度的电动汽车需求。当然，我们希望看到通用汽车考虑电动汽车的长期发展，但无论如何，LG在去年12月完成了田纳西工厂的建设。该工厂年产能为6万吨，是美国最大的工厂。大部分生产的供应品将用于制造动力电池。
Simple math if this production capacity stays steady over the next decade that would only be 600,000 tons cumulatively produced of which 500,000 go to GM. Bloomberg specifically Dana Hall noted Tesla critic is reporting that Tesla staff are bracing for potential job cuts after managers were asked to affirm whether each of their employees positions is critical. According to people familiar with the matter US managers had to make the binary assessment of their deputies roles in recent days. Tesla sent out the single line query for each job after canceling some employees by annual performance reviews.
如果这个生产能力在未来十年保持稳定，那么累计生产量只有60万吨，其中50万吨供应给通用汽车。彭博社特别提到特斯拉批评家Dana Hall报道称，特斯拉员工正在为可能的裁员做准备，因为经理们被要求确认每个员工的职位是否关键。据知情人士透露，美国经理们最近几天不得不对副手的角色进行二元评估。特斯拉在取消了一些员工的年度绩效评估之后，为每个职位发送了一行简单的查询信息。
To be clear this report does not buy any stretch guarantee that layoffs are coming. Even if they do though historically Tesla has liked to trim the fat roughly every year or so. They hire pretty quickly and then see who's working what the productivity is like and trim the lower performers. Last year Tesla put out a blog post about a specific layoff event at Kagan New York. They said Tesla conducts performance review cycles every six months. Employees receive a performance rating from one to five in each cycle that helps them calibrate their work with the expectations of their job. In the worst case if an employee fails to meet their performance expectations they'll be let go. This review process takes place globally. I'd also remind us all of summer 2022 if you weren't around the channel at that point when Elon said he wanted to cut 10% of Tesla's salaried workforce. That's how the media was framing it conveniently leaving out that Tesla was also looking to increase the number of hourly workers.
为了明确起见，这份报告并不绝对保证裁员即将发生。尽管如此，从历史上看，特斯拉大约每年都会进行一次裁员来减少不必要的人员。他们会迅速招聘人员，然后观察工作情况和生产效率，裁掉表现较差的员工。去年，特斯拉发布了一篇博客文章，介绍了卡甘纽约的一次具体裁员事件。他们表示，特斯拉每六个月进行一次绩效评估周期。员工在每个周期中会获得从一到五的绩效评级，以帮助他们调整工作以适应工作的期望。在最糟糕的情况下，如果员工未能满足绩效要求，他们将被解雇。这个评估过程在全球范围内进行。我还要提醒大家2022年夏天的事情，如果你当时没有在渠道上，当时埃隆说他想裁掉特斯拉薪酬员工的10%。媒体就是这样方便地把这个 framed（增加，补充） 出来，但他们遗漏了特斯拉还在寻求增加计时工人的事实。
Then just a few months later we heard that Tesla was scaling up its hiring efforts after some layoffs and that hiring freeze. Things change quickly we'll see what happens with this one. It's always unfortunate to see layoffs but it's also a necessary part of successful capitalism.
然后仅几个月后，我们听说特斯拉在经历了一轮裁员和招聘冻结后，正在扩大招聘工作。事情变化迅速，我们将看到接下来会发生什么。看到裁员总是令人遗憾，但它也是成功资本主义的必要部分。
I found this chart from AutoTrader that covers the European market. I just wanted to highlight when it comes to used EV sales. A lot of people have been talking about Tesla's used prices collapsing. Well looking around the industry it's not really out of the ordinary. Relative to the Model Y, the Audi e-tron, the Hyundai Ionic, the Renault Zoe, and the Mercedes EQS have all seen larger year over year used price declines. This data was from January this year. I just wanted to show everybody that it's not just Tesla.
我在AutoTrader上找到了一张覆盖欧洲市场的图表。我只是想强调一下关于二手电动汽车销售的情况。很多人都在谈论特斯拉的二手车价格崩盘。但是看看整个行业，这并不算异常。相对于Model Y，奥迪e-tron、现代Ionic、雷诺Zoe和奔驰EQS的二手价格年同比下跌幅度更大。这些数据来自今年一月份。我只是想向大家展示，情况不仅仅发生在特斯拉身上。
It's been almost two years now since we've talked about Joe Justice and Tesla's agile manufacturing more in depth on the channel. Of course there's a lot of new people here and just yesterday Joe Justice put out a new talk going over some of the detail and innovation that makes Tesla Tesla that nobody else really ever reports on because he used to work at Tesla.
自从我们在这个频道上深入讨论乔·贾斯汀斯和特斯拉的敏捷制造以来，已经将近两年了。当然，这里有很多新人，就在昨天，乔·贾斯汀斯发布了一个新的演讲，详细介绍了一些特斯拉独有的细节和创新，其他人很少报道，因为他曾在特斯拉工作过。
I'm not going to do a deep dive on Tesla's agile manufacturing in this video but I do want to play a few quick clips and if you're not familiar with this system I would encourage you to watch the full video. I'll have it below.
在这个视频中，我不打算详细介绍特斯拉的敏捷制造，但我想播放一些快速片段，如果你对这个系统不熟悉，我鼓励你观看完整视频。我会在下面提供链接。
The software stacks when I worked there in 2020 were all independent. If we were working on the seating team we would have a seating AI that would give suggestions on how to make better seats, manufacture them lighter, cheaper, last longer, more comfortable. There's an AI theory of seat comfort that runs continuously and it was a separate AI stack that you'd ask questions about how to make a better motor. Since I retired from Tesla in 2020, Tesla has put all of these AI's together. It's called Tesla 1 and this is actually the most valuable part of the company and I don't think most people understand that. The digital backbone of Tesla, the actual value of any must company is actually its digital process to design the manufacturing system in less than 12 hour chunks. It's very well assisted. We couldn't ask Google Bard or chat GPT to draw a more efficient electric motor than any human has ever made. They're not that good yet but you can ask the Tesla AI that.
我在2020年工作时，所使用的软件全部独立。如果我们在座椅团队工作，我们会有一个座椅人工智能系统，会提供如何制造更轻、更便宜、更持久、更舒适的座椅的建议。有一个关于座椅舒适度的人工智能理论一直在运行，它是一个独立的人工智能系统，你可以向它询问如何制造更好的电机的问题。自从我在2020年退休以来，特斯拉把所有这些人工智能系统都整合了起来。它被称为特斯拉1，实际上是公司最有价值的部分，我认为大多数人并不明白这一点。特斯拉的数字骨干，也就是设计制造系统的数字化过程，以不到12小时的时间段进行，这实际上是任何公司的真正价值所在。它非常有帮助。我们无法要求谷歌Bard或聊天GPT绘制比任何人做过的电机更高效的电机，它们还不那么出色，但你可以向特斯拉人工智能系统提问。
Why? There's five million Teslas on the road right now and they all send real-time data back to train Tesla's AI. Which part of the motors are hot? Which part of the motors wear out and when? How much electricity are they drawing and how much power comes out? What's their efficiency and their efficiency over time? That training data is overlapping with the CAD model of every motor Tesla has ever made. That is the data set you want for an AI that you ask please draw me a more efficient motor than humans have ever made and the Tesla AI can. It will draw it for you but it won't only draw the motor for you it will also tell you the manufacturing steps and the manufacturing tools which is what you really want.
为什么会这样呢？现在有500万辆特斯拉在路上，并且它们都会将实时数据发送回特斯拉的人工智能系统进行训练。哪个部分的马达会变热？马达的哪个部分会磨损以及何时会磨损？它们使用了多少电力和输出了多少功率？它们的效率如何以及随时间的变化情况如何？这些训练数据与特斯拉所制造的每个马达的CAD模型重叠。这正是你希望用于人工智能的数据集，你可以请求它为你绘制一种比人类所有的马达都更高效的马达，而特斯拉的人工智能可以做到。它将为你绘制出这个马达，但它不仅会为你绘制马达，还会告诉你制造步骤和制造工具，这才是你真正想要的。
The reason why is because every factory layout which changes multiple times a day its 3D model is part of the training set for Teslas AIs. Tesla's software has another very important job. This is a model why the the small SUV while it's being built. You might be able to read it on the screen here it says factory mode. This is the same software stack this is part of Tesla one. What it's doing is it's integration testing these parts as the car is assembled. Every car does this as it's assembled it's going through the API. Can I turn the steering rack left and right while I do it does any part of it get hot? How hot? How much electricity does it take to turn left and right? This is likely the very first time these parts have been connected because the parts are changing every day right? There's around 10,000 parts in a car they're all trying to change every day so that makes almost every car unique.
原因是因为每个工厂的布局在一天中多次更改，其3D模型是特斯拉人工智能的训练集的一部分。特斯拉的软件还有一个非常重要的任务。这是一个在建造小型SUV时的模型。您可能能够在屏幕上看到它，上面写着“工厂模式”。这与特斯拉的软件堆栈是相同的，这是特斯拉的一部分。它的工作是在汽车组装过程中进行零部件的集成测试。每辆汽车在组装过程中都会进行这样的测试，它会通过API进行。我可以将转向机构向左和向右转动吗？在此过程中是否有零件变热？变热的程度有多高？转向向左和向右需要多少电能？这很可能是这些零件第一次连接在一起，因为这些零件每天都在更换，对吧？一辆汽车有大约10,000个零件，它们每天都在尝试进行更改，所以几乎每辆汽车都是独一无二的。
What Tesla does is they keep a full CAD model of every car there's 5 million cars each one is 10,000 parts that's actually not a very unreasonable number for a technology company. Every car all parts there's a full model because they are all potentially unique and what Tesla one does is it puts every car in simulation through all road legal government approval tests and each car has its own digital document its own PDF to request government certification for it for that car. Not every car needs to apply for certification and for the ones that do that car already has its certification application ready.
特斯拉所做的是，他们保存着每辆汽车的完整CAD模型，现在有五百万辆汽车，每辆车有1万个零部件，这对于一家科技公司来说并不是一个非常不合理的数字。每辆车的所有零部件都有一个完整的模型，因为它们都有可能是独特的。而特斯拉所做的是，将每辆车都放入仿真模拟中，通过所有符合道路法规的政府认证测试，并且每辆车都有自己的数字文件，自己的PDF文件，用于向政府申请认证。并非每辆车都需要申请认证，对于那些需要认证的车辆，它们已经准备好了认证申请。
Most companies create a certification test every two and a half to seven years per car because it's expensive. Well software and agile software most of us found if we had a big difficult testing cycle at the end what was better is to have constant testing that never stopped. Google Amazon X, formerly Twitter all run more than one million automated tests every second. Of course so does Tesla and it runs on the cars when all teams are trying to make each part cost a penny less every day over four years the total cost of the car goes down 30 percent. This is actual number. Most companies are just trying to keep the cost from going up too fast.
大多数公司每两年半至七年就会为每辆汽车制定一个认证测试，因为这很昂贵。而在软件和敏捷软件中，我们大多数人发现，如果在最后有一个庞大而困难的测试周期，那么更好的选择是持续进行从不停止的测试。谷歌、亚马逊X（原Twitter）每秒运行超过一百万个自动化测试。当然，特斯拉也是如此，它在车辆上运行测试，当所有团队努力使每个部件在四年内每天节省一分钱时，汽车的总成本下降了30％。这是实际的数字。大多数公司只是试图让成本过快上升。
In most companies, the cost actually collapses. Most companies in hardware introduce changes every two and a half years, five years, seven years. You can actually see these numbers getting better every day.
在大多数公司中，成本实际上是逐渐降低的。硬件公司通常每隔两年半、五年或七年引入变革。你实际上可以看到这些数字每天都在变好。
How does Tesla drive down its cost of goods sold by about two percent every quarter, quarter after quarter after quarter? There's your answer. And even if Tesla runs into a bit of a slowdown, reaches that lower limit of COGS reductions, once they get to the next platform, I'm very confident it's going to make up for any slowdown we experience in the next 24 months.
特斯拉是如何每个季度将销售成本降低约2%的呢？答案就在这里。即使特斯拉遇到了一点减速，达到了降低销售成本的下限，一旦他们进入下一个平台，我非常有信心，在接下来的24个月中，它将弥补我们所经历的任何减速。
Tesla-One, don't sleep on it. Hertz just reported Q4 earnings and their CEO said they're looking at 250 million dollars in cuts that could include layoffs and closures. He said the company clearly took on more EV exposure than where the market otherwise took us. He did reiterate that long-term EVs will be the direction of travel, but for now, not all consumers are ready to make the switch.
特斯拉-可别对它掉以轻心。赫兹刚刚公布了第四季度的收益报告，他们的首席执行官表示，他们正考虑削减2.5亿美元的费用，其中可能包括裁员和关闭业务。他表示，公司明显承担了比市场本来预期更多的电动汽车风险。他再次重申，从长远来看，电动汽车将是行业的发展方向，但现阶段，并非所有消费者都准备好转向电动汽车。
Whether Hertz sells more Tesla vehicles next year and buys new EVs will depend on demand both at the rental counter and in the vehicle market. He also said we continue to experience elevated collision and damage in the quarter, largely driven by costs associated with running our EV fleet and perhaps more significantly, the challenge of the EVs had an impact on our operational efficiency more generally. Further reductions to the company's EV fleet, which would stand around 40,000 once all of the Tesla sales are completed, could be in the cards if necessary.
赫兹公司明年销售更多的特斯拉车辆并购买新的电动车将取决于租车柜台和车辆市场的需求。他还表示，该公司在这一季度继续面临较高的碰撞和损坏问题，这主要是由于运营电动车队所造成的成本和电动车对我们整体运营效率的挑战所导致的。如果有必要，该公司的电动车队还将进一步减少，一旦所有特斯拉销售完成，电动车队规模将达到约40,000辆。
I think the lesson of this, if you will, is that incremental steps to wrestle down the cost elements of the EVs were not going to work. As a consequence, as evident in the fourth quarter, the need to take a big bite out of this issue was one that was in front of us and we took it. If that's not enough, we'll do more.
我认为这个教训，如果你愿意的话，就是电动车成本要素的渐进式降低并不会奏效。因此，正如第四季度所表明的，我们需要大胆解决这个问题，我们也果断行动了。如果这还不够，我们将做更多。
We talked about Model Y price cuts for the RWD and LR versions. Now the performance is added to that list, down $4,300. Qualifying for some subsidies, so you Canadians wanted you to be aware. I would, however, point out that checking Transport Canada right now, the performance has not yet been added to the official list, but I'm guessing in the next day or two, it will be added.
我们讨论了Model Y后驱和长续航版本的价格下调。现在增加了性能版，下降了4300美元。符合某些补贴条件，所以加拿大的朋友们你们要知道了。不过，我想指出的是，目前在加拿大交通部尚未将性能版列入官方清单，但我猜可能在接下来的一两天内会添加进去。
Clean Energy Associates are predicting that battery energy storage prices in the United States will fall 18% throughout 2024. For context, battery storage with LFP cells at 3.7 megawatt hours and a 4-hour duration delivered with duties paid from China to the US will have nearly halved by the end of this year compared to the highs of 2022. Maybe most importantly though, Wood Mackenzie is saying this drive down in the price is mostly driven by significant competition by China-based suppliers in the US market. Surprisingly, the fall in lithium prices from the highs of 2022 is only a small factor, according to the CEA.
洁净能源联合会预测，美国的电池储能价格将在2024年降低18%。从背景来看，使用LFP电池的电池储能装置，电量为3.7兆瓦时，持续时间为4小时，从中国到美国的物流总费用，在今年年底与2022年高点相比将几乎减半。然而，更重要的是，伍德麦肯齐表示，这种价格下降主要是受到中国供应商在美国市场的激烈竞争推动。根据洁净能源联合会的说法，令人惊讶的是，与2022年的高点相比，锂价格的下跌只是一个很小的因素。
Speaking of battery storage, New Jersey is currently working on legislation for more best incentives. The Senate's Energy and Environment Committee voted in favor of the bill, but it's still going to have to pass both houses before it could be signed into law by the governor.
说到储能电池，新泽西目前正在制定更多最佳激励政策的立法。参议院的能源与环境委员会投票赞成该法案，但在被州长签署成为法律之前，它仍需通过两院的审议。
We talked yesterday about how some of those Ford dealers in the U 300 group were expecting some answers from Ford. Well, they did not get them and the group is not happy. Ford executives offered few specifics on hot button issues like EVs and quality improvements. The officials failed to take questions from the dealers, which is what they usually do. My read on this whole situation is that when it comes to the EV certification program that Ford has been requiring these dealers to go through, now that Ford is pulling back so much in terms of full electric vehicles, they really don't know how they're going to move forward, and they're ducking the questions.
昨天我们谈及到U300组中的一些福特特许经销商对福特公司的期望，但是他们没有得到答案，结果导致这个组织非常不满意。福特高管对于电动汽车和质量改进等热点问题只给出了很少具体细节。他们也没有回答那些经销商的问题，而这正是他们通常所做的。根据我对整个情况的理解，福特要求这些经销商参加电动汽车认证计划，但是由于福特在全电动汽车方面的撤退，他们现在真的不知道该如何前进，所以他们躲避回答问题。
At the same time, Ford has decided to remove a feature from its vehicles, specifically automated parallel parking. This is because real-time data shows that it's not a popular feature among its customers. It costs Ford about $60 per vehicle, so they could save roughly $10 million per year. This feature debuted more than a decade ago, and here we have it, Ford yet again pulling back even further on its full BEV plans.
与此同时，福特决定从其车辆中删除一项功能，即自动平行停车。这是因为实时数据显示，这个功能并不受其顾客欢迎。每辆车的成本约为60美元，所以他们每年可以节省大约1000万美元。该功能在十多年前首次亮相，而现在福特又进一步减少了其完全电动汽车计划。
Ford is rethinking its EV strategies, including reassessing the need for in-house production of batteries, according to Jim Farley. He said, "One of the things we're taking advantage of in taking some timing delays is rationalizing the level and timing of our battery capacity to match demand and actually reassessing the vertical integration that we're relying on and betting on new chemistries and capacities." Farley reiterated the company still believes EVs will grow but noted widespread adoption for mass-market consumers won't happen until the costs are more in line with traditional vehicles.
福特正在重新思考其电动汽车策略，包括重新评估是否需要自家制造电池。根据吉姆·法利的说法，他表示：“我们正在利用一些时间上的延迟来合理化我们的电池产能水平和时间，以满足需求，并重新评估我们依赖的垂直整合模式，同时对新的化学品和产能进行押注。”法利重申公司仍然相信电动汽车将会增长，但他指出，大规模市场消费者的普及化将要等到成本与传统汽车更相符合之后。
We all know what the problem is with this. Ford's costs for electric vehicles won't come down if they don't work toward producing them at scale. Their CFO said, "Ford is further looking into adjusting installed production capacity to match demand and potentially delaying next-gen EVs to ensure they meet our criteria for profitability given the new market reality.". The CFO said the Model E division will have to stand on its own sooner rather than later. He also said the company is pulling a target for its EV unit that called for 8% margin by 2026.
我们都知道这个问题是什么。如果福特不努力实现电动车的规模化生产，它们的成本就不会降低。他们的首席财务官表示：“福特将进一步调整安装的生产能力以适应需求，并有可能推迟下一代电动汽车的生产，以确保其符合我们的盈利标准，针对新的市场实际情况。”CFO表示，Model E部门迟早需要自己站稳脚跟。他还表示，公司取消了目标，该目标要求到2026年电动车部门的利润率达到8%。
As for it continues to pull back and reevaluate its EV plans it intends to lean in on sales of hybrid vehicles, specifically trucks. What have we been saying now for over a year? None of these current CEOs at these legacy OEMs wants to be the person in charge when their company starts hemorrhaging billions of dollars trying to sell electric vehicles. Personally I have my doubts that Ford's next-gen EV platform that just got delayed would struggle to compete with Tesla's current gen vehicles the Model 3 and the Model Y. So what are they going to do when Tesla brings the next-gen platform to market?
就它持续回撤并重新评估其电动汽车计划而言，它打算侧重于混合动力车辆的销售，尤其是卡车。我们已经说了一年多了，这些传统汽车制造商的现任CEO都不愿意成为当公司试图销售电动汽车时损失数十亿美元的负责人。就我个人而言，我对福特的下一代电动汽车平台产生了疑虑，而该平台刚刚被推迟，它可能会与特斯拉的当前一代车型Model 3和Model Y竞争不利。那么，当特斯拉推出下一代平台时，他们将如何应对呢？
It's a gross oversimplification but one of the ways I see it, whichever OEM can actually push through losing the most money trying to make EVs, taking the risks, trying new manufacturing techniques, figuring out what the market wants and it doesn't, that'll be the company that wins in the future EV world, everybody pulling back and just waiting for some magic to happen, I really don't think it's going to end well. But also as I've said before, that end isn't going to be in the next few years, it may not be for another 5 or even 10 years down the road because these companies still have successful ICE businesses. Those profits will erode with time as they lose economies of scale but they're still making a significant amount of money.
这是一种非常过于简化的看法，但我认为，无论哪家原始设备制造商能够真正承受最多的亏损来制造电动汽车，承担风险，尝试新的制造技术，弄清市场的需求和不足，并在其中找到突破口，这将成为未来电动汽车行业的赢家。 如果每个人都退缩，只是等待一些奇迹发生，我真的不认为结果会很好。 但正如我之前说过的，这个结果不会在接下来的几年内出现，可能需要再等待5年甚至10年，因为这些公司仍然拥有成功的内燃机业务。 随着时间的推移，这些利润将随着规模经济的降低而蚕食，但它们仍然在赚取大量的利润。
Farley said we learned as you scale EVs to 5000, 7000 units a month and you move into the early majority customer, they're not willing to pay a significant premium for EVs. He said all of our EV teams are ruthlessly focused on cost and efficiency in our EV products because the ultimate competition is going to be the affordable Tesla and the Chinese OEMs. If you've been waiting for a look at the exterior of the all new all-electric upcoming Porsche 718 Boxster, that's coming in 2025, set to debut later this year.
法利表示，当我们将电动车扩大到每月5000到7000辆，并进入早期主要顾客时，他们不愿支付显著溢价购买电动车。他说，我们所有的电动车团队都致力于在成本和效率方面进行无情的努力，因为最终的竞争将来自物美价廉的特斯拉和中国的原始设备制造商。如果您一直等待着看到全新全电动即将推出的保时捷718 Boxster的外观，那么这将在2025年亮相，并计划于今年晚些时候首次亮相。
Here you have it. There's one more for you. I'll tell you right now, this section is not news so skip ahead if you're not interested but this did make me laugh, I thought it was really good from Joe on X. As the esteemed owner of 7 shares of Tesla and this hairline, my voice obviously carries weight. I'm not sure if the stock will ever again be as high as I am right now. So yes, the board needs to shake up and my third eye is telling me these are the changes needed. First, we need Tesla boomer mama, she'll crush ESG, manage the ETFs and maybe even get more money from tenothy. Whole Lars Olav, obviously, he's the mean factory to our digger factories. Next, Gary Black to replace Kimball Musk. Just kidding. Then Sawyer Marin, as he's the only guy in the Tesla space better looking than me. Dirty Tesla first product testing at this rate, he'll get a board seat before a cyber truck. And finally, maybe that cat will have him manage the Google ads so we'll shut up about advertising.
给你。这还有一个给你。我告诉你，这一部分不是新闻，所以如果你对此不感兴趣的话可以跳过。不过这让我笑了，我觉得Joe在X方面真的很厉害。作为拥有7股特斯拉和这个发际线的尊贵所有者，我的声音显然具有重量。我不确定股票是否会再次达到我现在的水平那么高。所以是的，董事会需要震荡，我的第三只眼睛告诉我这就是所需的改变。首先，我们需要特斯拉的“婆婆”，她会占领ESG，管理ETF甚至从Tenothy那里得到更多钱。而且Lars Olav应该是我们挖掘机工厂的“凶恶工厂”。接下来，Gary Black取代Kimball Musk。开个玩笑。然后是Sawyer Marin，他是特斯拉领域唯一比我长得更好看的人。Dirty Tesla首先进行产品测试，他会在推出Cybertruck之前加入董事会。最后，也许那只猫可以让他管理谷歌广告，这样我们就不会再谈论广告了。
So I don't know why you keep bringing me it all on here but just want to say that I love you and love everything. Can we get a wellness check of Ross, please? Tesla stock closed the day at $187.58 up 1.34% on the day compared to the Nasdaq up 0.95%. It was a normal volume day for Tesla stock trading right in line with a 30 day average volume. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. You can find me on X linked below. Please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
所以我不知道为什么你还在这里给我带来这一切，但我只想说我爱你，爱一切。能请你确认一下Ross的健康状况吗？特斯拉股票收盘价是187.58美元，相较于纳斯达克的0.95%上涨了1.34%。特斯拉股票的交易量与30天平均交易量一致，是一个正常的交易日。希望你们有美好的一天。你可以在下方找到我的X账号。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞，也非常感谢我所有的Patreon支持者。