What's Happening at Giga Berlin / Ford's EV Collapse / FSD 12 Reliability ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my newest patron Eric G. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. We got a post on LinkedIn from Lars Lengacker, a Tesla employee, specifically a quality engineer for General Assembly. He said when he started at Gigabrelin, there were two challenges in his mind, making sure the Model Y was safe enough for his mom to drive and good enough for himself to drive. He said challenges accepted and completed, then shared a photo of some t-shirts on the hood of a Model Y, all the way from 1k up to now, 6k. Then on LinkedIn, Bob Folks chimed in, who is the director of quality at Gigabrelin. He gave us the confirmation of that picture, saying the Model Y scattered with trophies of our achievements, 1000 all the way to 6000 and beyond. Then he shared this photo of the Gigabrelin team.

欢迎来到《电动化》，我是主持人迪伦·卢米斯（Dylan Loomis）。在此向最新的赞助人埃里克·G致以最诚挚的感谢，感谢您选择支持本频道。我们在LinkedIn上看到了一篇帖子，来自特斯拉的员工拉尔斯·兰加克（Lars Lengacker），他是一个质量工程师，专门从事总装质量工作。他说当他在吉博林大厂开始工作时，他心中有两个挑战，一是确保Model Y足够安全，可以让他的妈妈开，二是让他自己开起来感觉足够好。他表示接受了这些挑战，并完成了任务，然后分享了一张Model Y引擎盖上摆满了T恤的照片，从1000件一直到现在的6000件。接着在LinkedIn上，质量总监鲍勃·福克斯（Bob Folks）发表了评论，并确认了这张照片的真实性，他说Model Y上散布着我们取得成就的奖杯，从1000个到6000个，甚至更多。然后他分享了吉博林团队的照片。

Here we have our production milestone chart, comparing Gigabrelin to Gigatexis now with this most recent milestone of 6000 Model Y's produced in one week. First things first, there are no guarantees Tesla is able to sustain this 6000 per week rate for an entire year, but hypothetically if they did, if we assume 50 weeks in the year to allow for two weeks of downtime and other things, that of course would be 300,000 units per year in terms of a run rate, and given that the current installed capacity at Berlin is 375,000, that would mean Tesla would be at roughly an 80% factor utilization rate. Further, we've known for some time that Gigabrelin has been approved for up to 500,000 units per year, or roughly 10,000 units per week.

在这里，我们有我们的生产里程碑图表，将Gigabrelin与Gigatexis进行比较，现在最新的里程碑是一周生产6000辆Model Y。首先要说的是，特斯拉无法保证能够将每周6000辆的生产速度持续一整年，但是假设他们可以，如果我们假设一年有50周，以便留出两周的停工和其他事项，那当然就意味着每年可以达到30万辆的产量，并且考虑到柏林工厂当前的装机容量为37.5万辆，那意味着特斯拉的工厂利用率大约为80%。此外，我们已经知道Gigabrelin已被批准每年最多可生产50万辆，或每周大约1万辆。

Berlin certainly is one of the most advanced manufacturing factories in the world, but this jumped from 5000 to 6000 took 314 days. Prior to that, the longest we had to wait for one of these 1000 per week milestones was 106 days when Berlin went from 1 to 2000 units per week. Tesla's listed capacity for Berlin has now sat at 375,000 units dating back to quarter two of 2023. Before that, key one, it was over 350,000. This all means that cumulatively, it's taken Gigabrelin 687 days to go from first delivery to 6000 units produced per week, almost two years. There are plenty of things we could speculate on for why this jumped from 5 to 6000 took so long, but one of them really was the IRA. There was a time when Gigabrelin was set to be ramping up 4680 battery production, but IRA became a thing and they came out and said they were shifting their focus from 4680s at Gigabrelin to making those in America. I don't know how true these reports were, but over the past year, there have been multiple reports that Tesla has at times struggled finding employment for Gigabrelin.

柏林工厂无疑是世界上最先进的制造工厂之一，但从5000到6000的增长花了314天。在此之前，我们等待每周1000辆车的最长时间是106天，当时柏林工厂从每周1辆增加到2000辆。特斯拉在柏林的上市产能从2023年第二季度至今保持在375,000辆，之前是350,000辆。综合起来，吉加柏林从首次交付到每周生产6000辆车花了687天，几乎两年。关于为什么从5000辆增长到6000辆花了这么长时间，有很多推测，但其中一个原因确实是IRA。有一段时间，吉加柏林计划加大对4680电池的生产，但IRA的出现使他们改变了重点，转而在美国生产这些电池。我不知道这些报道有多真实，但在过去一年里，有多次报道称特斯拉有时在吉加柏林工厂的就业方面遇到困难。

Yes, additionally, Elon has made some public comments about expectations for Berlin in 2022 when he expected Tesla to build half a million vehicles in Berlin in 2022. I know that things changed, but the reality was in 2023, Tesla ended up making roughly 200,000 Model Wives in Gigabrelin. I wouldn't read too far into this, but cumulatively in the past, Gigabrelin has been slightly ahead of Gigatexus, so this could be an encouragement that in the next few weeks we get a similar 6000 unit per week update for Gigatexus. As Tesla drives up, it's factory utilization rates. If you hold everything else constant, that would then of course mean better economies of scale and improved margins.

是的，此外，埃隆也对柏林工厂在2022年的预期做出了一些公开评论，他预计特斯拉将在2022年在柏林建造50万辆车辆。我知道事情发生了变化，但实际情况是在2023年，特斯拉在吉博柏林大约生产了20万辆Model Wives。我不会对此过分解读，但过去看，吉博柏林总体上略领先于吉卡特克斯，所以这可能是一种鼓励，意味着在未来几周内我们会看到吉卡特克斯每周类似6000辆的更新。随着特斯拉工厂利用率的提高，如果其他因素保持不变，当然会带来更好的规模经济效益和提高的利润率。

Don't forget we still have to figure out what happens with this spring of last year. We heard that Gigabrelin was set to expand to 1 million units of production capacity per year. Tesla applied for this expansion and they said it would not increase the factory's physical size. The current Gigabrelin footprint is big enough to produce up to 2 million vehicles when it reaches full capacity. The production equipment required to reach 1 million vehicles will be built inside the existing building. As I said on X, I would love Tesla to do a quarterly update for some of the lesser known business lines, Tesla electric, Tesla insurance, and more relaxed forums like that could give investors the opportunity to ask questions for things like Gigabrelin and what the hold up and delay to hitting 500,000 in a million units really has been. We can speculate as much as we want. Does it have to do with Chinese exports and the cost of that? Is it demand in certain regions? Is it factory limitations? Good or bad, we would just love to know.

不要忘记，我们还要弄清楚去年春天发生的事情。我们听说Gigabrelin计划将产能扩展到每年100万台。特斯拉申请了这一扩展，并表示不会增加工厂的物理规模。当前的Gigabrelin占地面积足够大，在达到满负荷时可以生产多达200万辆车辆。达到100万辆车辆所需的生产设备将建在现有建筑内部。正如我在X上所说，我很希望特斯拉能对一些鲜为人知的业务线进行季度更新，例如特斯拉电动、特斯拉保险，以及更轻松的论坛，这样投资者就有机会提出关于Gigabrelin以及达到50万和100万台的延迟原因的问题。我们可以尽情猜测。是与中国的出口以及其成本有关吗？是某些地区的需求问题吗？还是工厂的限制？无论是好是坏，我们只是想知道而已。

We got the Tesla China wholesale figure for January, which includes both domestic and exports. The total was 71447. Comparing this to January 2023, that number was 66,051. We'll get the full breakdown in the next few days and seeing significant declines month over month is totally normal going from December to January, honestly, to be expected.

我们得到了一月份特斯拉在中国的批发销售数据，包括国内销售和出口。总数为71447辆。与2023年1月份的销售数据相比，那个数字为66051辆。接下来几天我们将获得详细的数据分析结果，每个月从12月到1月的销售量显著下滑是非常正常的，实际上也是可以预料的。

Just two days later, Tesla has already settled that hazardous waste lawsuit in California, agreeing to pay a $1.5 million settlement. Tesla did not admit to any wrongdoing with this settlement, and they also agreed to take steps to properly handle waste and hire a third party auditor to examine its waste practices over five years.

仅仅两天后，特斯拉已经在加利福尼亚解决了那起有害废物诉讼，并同意支付150万美元的和解费用。特斯拉在此次和解中没有承认任何不当行为，并同意采取措施妥善处理废物，并聘请第三方审计师在五年内审查其废物处理方式。

It became very clear today that after a slew of headlines that looked like this, Tesla recalls millions of vehicles amid probe of autopilot crashes that the higher ups at Tesla are also fed up and frustrated with this entire recall scenario. This was one of the more ridiculous ones we've had to date. Some visual warning lights were too small and the user interface. You already know this is just an OTA update.

今天变得非常明显，特斯拉在多起涉及自动驾驶事故的调查中召回数百万辆汽车，这些头条新闻看起来就像这样，使得特斯拉的高层对这整个召回事件感到愤怒和失望。这次召回可谓是迄今为止我们遇到的最荒谬的一次。一些视觉警示灯太小了，用户界面也有问题。你已经知道这只是通过OTA更新。

Look at this from Reuters. Tesla to recall nearly all its US vehicles in largest ever recall. The official Tesla account chimed in fighting back saying this is a minor OTA software update that increases the size of the brake, park and anti-lock brake system warning indicators. Holmars was highlighting the absurdity and Elon chimed in saying literally.

特斯拉将召回几乎所有在美国的车辆，这是迄今为止最大规模的召回行动。特斯拉官方账号回应称，这只是一个小型的OTA软件更新，只是增加了刹车、停车和防抱死制动系统警示器的尺寸。Holmars强调了这种荒谬性，埃隆也赞同。

Rohan Patel said a physical letter telling a customer that they have to do nothing is confusing and environmentally wasteful. Millions of dollars in useless paper. For a physical recall where a vehicle actually has to go to a service center, no physical letter is required if the recall has been completed before the 60-day deadline. But NHTSA recently decided without any notice or comment process that all software updates require a paper letter. The agency should move into the modern era. Many other countries have changed their process to allow for electronic notifications. I'd venture to guess at least 95% of all Tesla owners would just prefer an in-app update for any recalls like this rather than getting something in the mail. Technostic recommended the same thing to which Rohan said exactly we have offered this to no avail. Replying to Holmars about this paper notice requirement Elon said the physical letter requirement is super wasteful. As Carlos pointed out, the indicator icons have been updated on 2024.2.2. Here we have the visualization and the root cause of all of these ridiculous headlines today. Three of these indicators now have bigger text for park, brake and ABS.

罗汉·帕特尔表示，给顾客寄一封身体力行的信令人困惑，同时也浪费环境资源。这样无用的纸张浪费了数百万美元。对于真正需要前往服务中心进行召回的车辆，如果在60天的期限之前完成了召回，就不需要发送实体信函。但是，国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）最近在没有任何通知或评议的情况下决定，所有软件更新都需要纸质信件。该机构应该步入现代化。许多其他国家已经改变了他们的流程，允许电子通知。我敢保证，至少95%的特斯拉车主宁愿在应用程序中进行所有这类召回的更新，而不是通过邮件收到东西。技术观察还向罗汉表示，我们已经提供了此项服务，但未获成功。对于霍尔马斯提到的此纸质通知要求，埃隆回答说，实体信函的要求非常浪费。正如卡洛斯所指出的，2024.2.2版本已更新了指示符图标。这就是今天所有这些荒唐标题的可视化和根本原因。其中三个指示符现在拥有更大的文本，分别是停放、刹车和ABS。

I know we all joke about this but the truth is the general public really consumes their information and shapes their worldview primarily through headlines. I can't tell you how many times I've talked to people in the general public acquaintances. They'll ask what I do. I tell them the first thing they say, oh that company that always has all of the recalls. Then of course I do my job of explaining the truth but oftentimes you can tell they already have their mind made up of what type of company Tesla is. It's honestly crazy what's happening here because the reality of the situation Tesla is being punished from a brand perception standpoint every time they issue a software update to make their cars better for free. Welcome to 2024 in America.

我知道我们都开玩笑说这个，但事实是普通大众主要通过标题来获取信息并塑造自己的世界观。我告诉你有多少次我和普通大众的熟人聊过。他们会问我做什么工作。我告诉他们之后，他们第一时间就会说：“哦，那家总是有各种召回的公司。”当然，我会尽力解释实情，但往往你能看出他们已经对特斯拉这家公司有了自己的看法。这里正在发生的事情实在是太疯狂了，因为特斯拉在品牌认知方面每次发布软件更新免费改进他们的汽车时都受到惩罚。欢迎来到2024年的美国。

I'm guessing most of you have seen this already but in case you haven't a good reminder from Sawyer that yes other companies even Mercedes with a car like the GLS also has struggled with panel gap alignment at times.

我猜大多数人已经看过了，但以防万一你还没有看到，索耶尔提醒我们，就连奔驰这样的公司也曾在面板间隙对齐方面遇到过困难。

Tesla has cut the price of the Model Y in Canada only for both the rear wheel drive and long range variants by $4,000 each. This now means the long range variant qualifies for a combined $12,000 in rebates if you live in Quebec. Customers can now get up to $7,000 from Quebec in addition to the $5,000 from the federal eyes of rebate. You Canadians who have just placed an order but not taken delivery. The word is don't hold me to it that Tesla will adjust your price accordingly before your delivery.

特斯拉仅针对加拿大市场将Model Y的后驱和长续航版本的售价各降低了4000加元。这意味着如果您住在魁北克省，长续航版本现在将获得总共12000加元的补贴。顾客现在可以额外获得魁北克省7000加元的补贴，加上联邦5000加元的补贴。对于那些已经下单但还未交付的加拿大顾客，消息是特斯拉将会根据这一调整，相应地调整您的价格。

And check this out we have the Canadian Configurator the Model 3 rear wheel drive price $53,990. Switching to the Model Y rear wheel drive $53,990. The long range Model Y $63,990. And the Model 3 long range also $63,990. The three and the Y are the exact same price right now in Canada. Those prices are before any incentives.

快来看看我们的加拿大配置器，Model 3后驱车型售价为53,990美元。如果选择Model Y后驱车型，则售价为53,990美元。而长续航版的Model Y售价为63,990美元，与Model 3长续航版的售价也相同，均为63,990美元。目前在加拿大，Model 3和Model Y的价格是完全一样的。这些价格不包括任何激励措施。

I know you can interpret that many different ways but I would take that to mean that right now Model 3 plus demand is pretty strong. Many of you will know I'm fully on board with a price cut strategy. It may not be optimal but it's what Tesla has decided and I'm not going to change their mind. I would just continue to show this chart to remind people of why they do it. Lower prices means much higher total addressable markets more sales. I know people in the Tesla community have argued that Tesla would have sold as many cars if they didn't cut prices like they have. I firmly disagree with that stance and I don't think I need to make an argument for why.

我知道你可能会有很多不同的解释，但我会理解为现在Model 3的需求非常强劲。你们中的许多人都知道我完全支持降价策略。这可能不是最优解，但这是特斯拉决定的，我不会改变他们的想法。我只是继续展示这张图表，提醒人们为什么他们这样做。降低价格意味着更大的潜在市场和更多的销售额。我知道特斯拉社区中的人们争论说，如果他们不像现在这样降价，特斯拉仍然会卖出同样多的车。对于这种观点，我坚决不同意，我也不认为我需要为何如此做出解释。

Tesla Americas confirmed it on X that up to $12,000 in incentives are available for those in Quebec. This has been going on for a few days but the aero covers for the Cybertruck. These are now going to be a collectors item. The word is some Cybertrucks are currently being shipped with no aero covers. Now that we've had the truck and driven it a couple thousand miles well there is an issue. So on the bottom of the tire you have the effect of the vehicle being loaded and then you get the contact patch. So the tire deforms which is totally normal that's how it's engineered to work. The contact patch which is where the tire contacts the ground is going to cause the tire to bulge out a little bit down here. Well the problem with the tire bulging out is the sidewall gets wider on the bottom when it's contacting the ground and now all of a sudden these fingers are in direct contact with the tire sidewall on the bottom. Simply put you got some friction with the fingers on these now outdated Cybertruck aero covers. Sounds like Tesla is working on a new design for new aero covers that hopefully they have sooner rather than later.

特斯拉美洲部门在X上确认，魁北克地区有最高12,000美元的优惠政策。这已经持续了几天，但这是给Cybertruck提供的空气动力学罩。现在它们将成为收藏品。有传言称，一些Cybertruck目前正在运送没有空气动力学罩的车辆。现在，我们已经拥有并开了几千英里的卡车，发现有一个问题。所以在轮胎底部，你会感受到车辆负载的影响，然后有地面接触。所以轮胎变形，这是完全正常的，这是它的设计原理。接触面是轮胎接触地面的地方，会导致轮胎下部稍微凸出一点。问题是轮胎突出，底部的侧壁变宽了，与轮胎侧壁底部的这些突起现在直接接触。简而言之，现在过时的Cybertruck空气动力学罩的凸起突起与突起之间发生了摩擦。听起来特斯拉正在开发新设计的空气动力学罩，希望能尽快推出。

Despite this just being one anecdote I think this is a very important post from whole Mars. Still seeing more safety critical interventions in FSD beta 12 compared to 11. That doesn't matter to me happy to get it to try it early. We'll keep you guys posted on when I feel it surpasses 11 in reliability. Omar my guy if you happen to see this we would love to see some of those drives with these safety critical interventions. It's always fun to see the highlights and the good things in the progress but we need to see the bad as well to get a fair complete picture of where FSD 12 is really at. I think some folks out there in the community were starting to get carried away with V12 so it's just one post and again one anecdote but I think it's an important one.

虽然这只是一个轶事，但我认为这是一篇非常重要的来自Whole Mars的帖子。与11版相比，FSD Beta 12仍然有更多的安全关键干预措施。对我来说这没有关系，我很高兴能早点体验它。我们会及时向大家反馈，告诉大家什么时候我觉得它的可靠性超过了11版。奥马尔哥，如果你碰巧看到这个帖子，我们很想看到一些带有这些安全关键干预措施的驾驶视频。看到进展中的亮点和好事情总是很有趣，但我们需要看到不好的方面，以获得对FSD 12真实进展的公正和完整的了解。我觉得社区中的一些人开始过分热衷于V12了，所以这只是一个帖子而已，再说一次，只是一个轶事，但我认为它很重要。

Then Jamescat on X somebody I have immense respect for and I would encourage all of you to follow said Kimball de facto claiming FSD solved in five years no steering wheel is quite the walk back. Here's the exact quote that James was referencing. How far before this year's world I would say maybe five years really you think it's definitely in this decade yeah I mean I think that we might come out with the robo-texi before that and they would have no steering level. It's just also there's also if to do government regulations. They do require steering wheel still so but to get through that as well. Which doesn't seem like it's a easy process to sort through. They're just very traditional and they should be the safety first. I just wanted to make the distinction that Tesla solving FSD can be a different thing than actually removing the steering wheel. I do not believe they are one in the same hypothetical example not what I'm expecting but Tesla could solve FSD in six months from now and decide to keep the steering wheel. Kimball did also say that potentially before this five year mark Tesla releases a robo-taxi without a wheel. In case it wasn't clear the way I'm interpreting this five year number from Kimball it was just a guess not at all like it's some internal timeline or even expectation at Tesla. Just needed to inject some of that commentary into the discussion.

然后詹姆斯在X上谈到了一个我非常尊敬的人，我鼓励大家都关注他。金博尔实际上声称FSD在五年内解决，没有方向盘这完全是后退。这是詹姆斯引用的确切言论。在今年的世界之前有多远，我会说可能是五年，你认为肯定在这个十年内，是的，我的意思是，我认为我们可能会在那之前推出无方向盘的自动出租车。还有就是政府监管。他们仍然要求有方向盘，所以要克服这一点也是困难的。他们非常保守，他们应该把安全放在第一位。我只是想明确一点，特斯拉解决FSD可以是一件不同的事情，与实际上去掉方向盘不同。我不认为它们是同一个假设性的例子，而不是我所期望的，但特斯拉可以在六个月后解决FSD，并决定保留方向盘。金博尔还表示，在这五年期限之前，特斯拉有可能发布一辆没有方向盘的自动出租车。如果这个五年的数字从金博尔那里并不清楚，那只是一个猜测，并不像是特斯拉的内部时间表或期望。我只是需要在讨论中加入一些评论。

Some of you will remember Eola Hughes from Ramotion who we had the pleasure of doing an interview with last year. She gave us a nice little update on the battery energy storage market for 2024. Taking a bit more detail on the grid side of the market in terms of a key trend for 2024 we can expect projects to get bigger. So this is something that we've been seeing for a few years now and what this chart is showing you is just the average project size in these key markets and across these four key markets we're really seeing a big step up in the average project size for the next year and not only are they getting bigger there are more of them which are larger and just a few things to highlight this. So in 2023 in our project database we tracked 74 projects over 1 gigawatt hour which entered the pipeline and this is compared to just four projects which came online last year which were over that 1 gigawatt hour mark quite interestingly as well. China of course was leading the market so with that 66 gigawatt hours so really kind of dominating the space. However they didn't make it into the top five so four out of the top five were in the US and then we have one in South Africa making it into the top five of projects as well. So in 2023 the vast majority of these projects were lithium-ion so lithium-ion making up 98% of storage projects coming online. However in 2024 we are set to see a bit more diversification come through with five gigawatt hours of non-lithium-ion grid projects which adduce come online. Sometimes these timelines do have to be taken with a bit of a pinch of salt.

有些人可能还记得我们去年采访过Ramotion的Eola Hughes。她给我们提供了一个关于2024年电池储能市场的更新。从市场的电网方面来看，2024年的关键趋势是项目规模会变得更大。这是我们过去几年一直在看到的情况，而这个图表所展示的就是这些关键市场中的平均项目规模。我们可以看到，在这四个关键市场中，平均项目规模在明年将会大幅提升，并且不仅仅是规模更大，数量也更多。有几个要点需要强调一下。所以在我们的项目数据库中，2023年有74个项目超过1个千兆瓦时的规模进入了项目阶段，而去年只有4个项目的规模超过了这个1个千兆瓦时的标志，这也是非常有趣的。当然，中国在市场上处于领先地位，有66个千兆瓦时的规模，真的是占据了主导地位。然而，他们没有进入前五名，前五名中有四个在美国，还有一个在南非。所以，2023年，这些项目中绝大多数都是锂离子电池，占到了上线项目的98%。然而，在2024年，我们预计会看到更多的多样化项目上线，有5个千兆瓦时的非锂离子电池电网项目。有时候，这些时间表可能需要打个折扣来看待。

We often see delays particularly when it comes to new chemistries but that is a mix of both flow batteries and sodium-ion which I'll touch on in more detail shortly. This was a great reminder from the CyberTruck guy on X that Tesla continues to update and add features to service mode through these software updates. I would not recommend beginners playing around in service mode but for those that know what they're doing this gives the DIY community continually more and more functionality with their Tesla vehicles something that people complained about for a long time. Between this and the online service manuals and the parts catalogs Tesla has made so much progress on this front over the past few years and I think it just gets brushed over.

我们经常看到延误，尤其是涉及新的化学物质时，但那是流体电池和钠离子电池的混合体，稍后我会详细介绍。这是CyberTruck的人在X上提醒我们的一个很好的例子，特斯拉通过这些软件更新继续更新和添加服务模式的功能。我不建议初学者在服务模式中胡乱操作，但对于那些知道自己在做什么的人来说，这为DIY社区提供了越来越多功能，这是人们长期以来一直抱怨的问题。在过去几年中，特斯拉在这方面取得了如此大的进展，包括在线服务手册和零件目录，我认为这一点常常被忽视了。

Ford just released its US sales for January 2024 and it's only one month but it's also not good. In 2023 for their full EV lineup last year Ford sold 5247 units the same month this year 4674 down 10.9% full beevs looking very weak but they made up for it with hybrids up 42% year over year for the month of January going from 7.8000 January last year to 11.1000 this year January of last year the Machi sold 2,626 units January of this year 1,295 clearly getting smacked by losing the IRA tax credit. That figure is down over 50% year over year. The F-150 Lightning effectively flat year over year doing 2.2000 sales for January. It's only one month but for the Machi it's starting to look very clear that a lot of demand was pulled forward into Q4 with the availability of the tax credit. The high watermark for Machi sales in the United States was last year in Q3 doing 5.9 in one month but in November and December it was doing just over 4000 units. As I said earlier a step down in January is always to be expected but this is more like skipping a few steps. So we'll see what the next few months have in store for the Machi and the F-150 Lightning. We already heard Ford tell its suppliers that this year they're only expecting to produce around 1500 lightnings per week and if the Machi stays at that figure or below Ford is going to have a very difficult if not impossible time turning a profit with volumes this low. It seems plain as day that right now when it comes to Ford and full BEVs they're simply stuck in neutral.

福特刚刚发布了2024年1月的美国销售数据，尽管只是一个月，但情况并不乐观。去年2023年，福特的全电动车型在全年销售了5247辆，而今年同一个月份只售出了4674辆，下降了10.9%。全电动车型看起来非常疲软，但混合动力车型的销量却增长了42%，与去年1月相比从7800辆增长到了1.1万辆。而去年1月，Machi销售了2626辆，而今年1月只有1295辆，显然是因为失去了个人退休账户（IRA）税收抵免的支持。这一销量比去年同期下降了50%以上。而F-150 Lightning与去年同期相比基本持平，1月销量为2200辆。虽然只有一个月的数据，但对于Machi来说，很明显在税收抵免的支持下，很多需求被提前拉到了第四季度。Machi在美国的销售高峰是去年第三季度，一个月销售5.9万辆，但在11月和12月份，销量只有4000多辆。正如我之前所说，1月份的销量下降是可以预料的，但这种情况更像是直接跳过了几步。所以我们将看到接下来的几个月Machi和F-150 Lightning的销售情况。我们已经听说福特告诉供应商，他们今年只计划每周生产大约1500辆Lightnings，如果Machi的销量保持在这个水平或更低，福特将很难甚至不可能以如此低的产量实现盈利。很明显，目前福特在全电动车型方面陷入了停滞不前的局面。

All together today 223 miles per mile 69 kilo hours used I've covered 309 miles still got 6% remaining about 20 miles left so there we go real world and we weren't hanging around weren't trying to drive efficiently the heating's been on all day the radio's been on all day but this car does really quite happily go over 300 miles and that's in some fairly chilly conditions and driving kind of 70 that last bit was really all 70 miles an hour so even mostly 70 miles per hour you're talking four and a half miles per kilo hours or 223 to 225 miles per mile.

今天总共行驶223英里，每小时耗电69千瓦时。我已经行驶了309英里，还剩下6%电量，大约还能行驶20英里。所以，现实世界中，我们没有浪费时间，也没有试图高效驾驶。车上一整天都开着暖气和收音机，但是这辆车在相当寒冷的条件下还是能够轻松超过300英里。这其中有部分路段以70英里每小时的速度行驶，所以即使大部分时间以70英里每小时的速度行驶，每千瓦时行驶4.5英里，或者每英里行驶223至225英里。

Now I'm fairly confident if I was in that one of the previous long ranges I'd have been more like 245 250 255 watt hours per mile so about four miles per kilo hours and this has been about four and a half miles per kilo as an overall average there are certainly times when you could easily make it do five miles per kilo hours so I can make this car go quite a lot further I mean I've used 69 kilo hours there's probably 75 odd kilo hours available here so there's certainly a few left to go but nonetheless 309 divided by say 94% used that'll give this car a range of to 329 miles based on today's conditions so this is impressive very very good indeed.

现在我相当自信，如果我在以前的某个长程中，我的每英里能量消耗可能会更多，大约是245 250 255瓦时，所以大约每公里行驶4英里，而整体平均每公里大约是4.5英里，当然有时候你可以轻松地做到每公里五英里，所以我可以让这辆车行驶得更远，我是说我已经使用了69千瓦时，这里可能还有75千瓦时左右可用，所以还剩下一些，但无论如何，将309除以94%使用的话，这辆车的续航里程将达到329英里，基于今天的条件来看，这是令人印象深刻的，非常非常好。

Figured I'd share at least one more anecdote of the Model 3 plus efficiency in the real world looking very good and a few days were set to get the reveal of the 2025 updated Porsche Ticon the early reviews of this prototype have been mentioning the range estimate accuracy more importantly though across the board everybody has been talking about higher peak charging rates and an improved charging curve in these early tests in California that were basically perfect conditions the charging rate got up to 327 kilowatts for this one reviewer and remained above 200 kilowatts until the battery was 75% full.

想着至少再分享一个关于Model 3在现实世界中效率非常好的例子。我们还有几天就要看到2025款更新后的保时捷Ticon，这款原型车的早期评测中提到了续航里程估计的准确性，更重要的是，大家普遍在讨论更高的峰值充电速度和改进的充电曲线。在加利福尼亚进行的这些早期测试中，几乎是完美的条件下，一位评论人员的充电速率达到了327千瓦，并且在电池充至75%之前一直保持在200千瓦以上。

One of the biggest complaints over the past few years about the Ticon has been you get everything you want but you have to sacrifice the range to get it it's not official but in some of this early testing on Porsche's own website they're touting 365 miles of real world range for the 2025 Ticon we don't have many other details about the new vehicle but the new battery pack could be bigger up to between 100 and 110 kilowatt hours from 93.4 kilowatt hours before motor trend said how does a 10% increase in battery capacity result in a 35% increase in range in addition to equipping a larger energy store Porsche made the Ticon more efficient revised battery chemistry made possible by tech that was not available when Porsche in 2016 began developing the original Ticon plus the new chemistry could also explain the faster charging TBD what happens to the price for this 2025 variant but for right now it starts around $90,000.

在过去几年中，关于Ticon最大的抱怨之一是虽然你可以得到想要的一切，但必须牺牲续航里程才能实现。虽然这还不是官方数据，但在保时捷自家网站上的一些早期测试中，他们称2025年的Ticon在实际使用中的续航里程可达365英里。关于这款新车，我们没有太多其他细节，但新的电池组容量可能会增大，从之前的93.4千瓦时增至100到110千瓦时。汽车趋势杂志曾问过，电池容量增加了10%，为什么续航里程却增加了35%？除了配备更大的储能装置外，保时捷还通过改进电池化学成分提高了Ticon的效率。这种技术在2016年保时捷开始开发原始Ticon时并不可用，另外，新的化学成分也可能解释了充电速度的提升，但尚待确定。至于这款2025年的车型价格如何变化，目前还不清楚，但起价大约是9万美元左右。

Also direct from Porsche in 2023 the Ticon posted double digit gains 17% with 40,629 customers taking delivery the chairman of the national auto dealers association who is on his way out had some interesting things to say to start no surprise he was voicing his frustration with the US government for moving too quickly with EVs saying it could result in major losses in sales billions of dollars in fines for OEMs and losing manufacturing jobs all things we've heard before but he did say he spoke of his personal experience with owning a Tesla calling himself a student of electrification then he said he took a 10 day trip to China last year to meet with the dealers where he got to learn from their brands firsthand he said China has a 10 year head start on EVs their electric cars are very well made beautifully designed and very competitive he said US regulations create the potential for Chinese EVs to enter the North American market he said previously whenever waves of European Japanese Korean brands arriving in the US in the past those were opportunities for dealers the Chinese EV wave could be a similar opportunity but something quite different a giant wave that could sweep away some auto manufacturers along with its dealers it may be nothing but we've now heard from a few people in the industry who have all had a commentary about the Chinese maybe actually showing up in the North American market and now the chairman of Neda is saying the regulations may be set up to allow it.

同样来自保时捷，2023年Ticon实现了两位数的增长（17%），共有40,629名顾客收到交付。即将离任的全国汽车经销商协会主席表示了一些有趣的观点。毫不奇怪，他对美国政府过快推进电动车表示了不满，称这可能导致销售大幅下降，原始设备制造商面临亿万美元的罚款以及失去制造业岗位等等，这些都是我们之前听说过的。不过，他提到了自己亲身拥有特斯拉的经历，称自己是电动化的学生。接着，他说他去年去中国与经销商见面，并从他们的品牌中亲身学习。他表示中国在电动车领域已经领先了10年，他们的电动车制造得非常出色，设计优美，与其它品牌竞争力强。他表示美国的法规为中国电动车进入北美市场创造了机会。他之前说，过去欧洲、日本和韩国品牌涌入美国的浪潮对经销商来说是机会。而中国电动车的浪潮可能是一个类似的机会，但也是一个截然不同的巨大浪潮，有可能席卷走一些汽车制造商和经销商。虽然这仅仅是可能，但我们现在已经听到了行业内有几个人都对中国在北美市场上真的可能出现发表意见，而Neda主席现在说法规可能会支持这种情况的发生。

Tesla stock closed the day at $187.91 down 0.5% while the Nasdaq was up 1.74% the volume for Tesla stock today came in right in line with the average 30 day volume I hope you guys have a wonderful and a safe weekend you can find me on X linked below please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters you.

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