Tesla Q4 Battery Updates // Production Dip and Rumors

Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Geisigee and this is The Limiting Factor. In Tesla's Q4-2023 earnings call, Drew Baglino provided his usual quarterly update about the status of the 4680 RAM. Today, I'm going to break down what he said line by line and what the implications are. Additionally, in the past month or two, there have been some rumors and reports about the 4680 RAM that people have asked about. So I'll cover those as well.

大家好，欢迎回来。我是乔丹·格赛吉，这是《限制因素》节目。在特斯拉2023年第四季度财报电话会议上，德鲁·巴格里诺按惯例就4680型随机访问存储器（RAM）的进展进行了季度更新。今天，我将逐句解读他的发言，并说明其中的意义。另外，在过去的一个月或两个月里，有一些关于4680型RAM的谣言和报道，有人问到了这些信息。所以我也会对这些进行涵盖。

Before we begin, a special thanks to my Patreon supporters, YouTube members and Twitter subscribers, as well as RebellionAir.com. They specialize in helping investors manage concentrated positions. RebellionAir can help with covered calls, risk management, and creating a money master planned from your financial first principles.

在我们开始之前，特别感谢我的Patreon赞助者、YouTube会员和Twitter订阅者，以及RebellionAir.com。他们专业帮助投资者管理集中持仓。RebellionAir可以帮助处理 covered calls（期权策略之一，投资者在手上持有股票的同时，出售相同数量的认购权证），风险管理，并根据您的财务首要原则创建一个理财计划。

Drew started by saying, quote, First, I just want to allow any concerns regarding 4680 limiting the Cybertruck RAM because I've seen some people commenting about that.

德鲁开始说，引用他的话：“首先，我只是想消除关于4680电池限制Cybertruck内存的任何担忧，因为我看到一些人对此发表评论。”

Today, 4680 production is ahead of the RAM, with actually weeks of finished cell inventory, and the goal is to keep it that way, not only for the Cybertruck but for future vehicle programs. And as Elon said, it is an S-curve here too. It's hard to predict these things, but I'm just describing our goals.

如今，4680电池的生产速度超过了RAM（产能），实际上有几周的成品电池库存。我们的目标是保持这种状况，不仅仅是为了Cybertruck，也是为了未来的车辆项目。正如埃隆所说，这里也是一个S型曲线。预测这些事情很难，但我只是在描述我们的目标。

End quote. What Drew's referring to here is an article by Reuters on the 21st of December, which was titled Tesla Cybertruck Deliveries Hostage to Battery Production Hell. As with any major battery news that relates to Tesla, the day the article came out, I provided a breakdown of it on X, which I'll link in the description. Needless to say, the Reuters article was clickbait journalism. It stated that the 4680 was currently at a run rate that could support 24,000 vehicles per year, which was based on publicly available information from the last earnings call in October. But when the Reuters article was written in December, the run rate for the Cybertruck was probably at less than 5,000 trucks per year, so the 4680 RAM clearly wasn't holding up the Cybertruck RAM. In fact, as Drew said, they actually have weeks of finished cell inventory to feed the Cybertruck RAM, and their goal is to keep it that way for not only the Cybertruck but future vehicle RAMs. Note that I don't think this means Tesla has imminent plans to start using the 4680 in other vehicles, just that Drew has confidence in the 4680 RAM. Lastly, it's worth emphasizing that Drew stated production RAMs are difficult to predict, and that he's just describing Tesla's goals. In other words, we should keep our expectations in check.

引号结束。这里德鲁所指的是路透社在12月21日发表的一篇题为《特斯拉Cybertruck交付受制于电池生产地狱》的文章。与特斯拉相关的任何重要电池消息一样，文章发布当天，我在X上对其进行了详细解读，我会在描述中附上链接。不用说，路透社的这篇文章就是为了吸引点击率而写的。文章声称4680电池的生产能力当前可以支持每年24000辆车，这是基于去年10月的最新财报中公开的信息。但是当这篇文章在12月份被写出来时，Cybertruck的生产能力可能还不到每年5000辆，所以4680电池显然没有成为Cybertruck的瓶颈。实际上，正如德鲁所说，他们实际上有数周的成品电池库存来支持Cybertruck的生产，并且他们的目标是不仅对Cybertruck，还对未来的车型都保持这样的库存水平。需要注意的是，我认为这并不意味着特斯拉即将开始在其他车型中使用4680电池，只是德鲁对4680电池有信心而已。最后，值得强调的是德鲁说到了生产目标的不确定性，并且他只是在描述特斯拉的目标。换句话说，我们应该对期望值保持谨慎。

Elon jumped in at this point to build on what Drew was saying by adding that cell manufacturing is a hard problem, and that they're implementing a lot of new technology in the cell and with the manufacturing of the cell. I won't go through this line by line because Elon's made these comments before, and because I've made dozens of videos on the topic.

在这一点上，埃隆插话补充德鲁说的内容，他说细胞制造是一个困难的问题，他们在细胞和细胞制造方面正在引入许多新技术。我不会逐行讲解，因为埃隆之前已经提过这些评论，而且我已经制作了几十个关于这个话题的视频。

Drew's next comment was, quote, Texas successfully swapped line one from the model Y design of the cell to the Cybertruck design of the cell, which has the 10% energy density increase I mentioned before. To understand what Drew's saying here, let's do a quick recap of the two versions of the 4680 battery cell that Tesla's produced so far. The first is the generation one battery cell that was used in the model Y. The second is what I refer to as the generation two cell, and what Drew refers to as the Cybertruck cell, or the Cybertruck cell that has 10% higher energy density. As far as I'm aware, those are the only two versions of the 4680 that have been used in vehicles.

德鲁接下来的评论是：“引用一句话，德克萨斯成功地从Model Y设计中换掉了第一代到Cybertruck设计的蓄电池，这增加了我之前提到的10%的能量密度。”为了理解德鲁在这里说的话，让我们快速回顾一下特斯拉迄今为止生产的两种4680电池版本。第一种是第一代电池，用于Model Y。第二种是我所说的第二代电池，也是德鲁所称之为Cybertruck电池的电池，其能量密度比较高，提高了10%。据我所知，这两个版本是在车辆上使用的唯一两个4680版本。

In my Q3 earnings call video, I said that my view was that line one at Giga Austin was producing the generation two cell, because the only images we have from Giga Austin show the generation two battery cell. And because of that, the second production line that began ramping in Q3 would be a cut and paste of line one. That is, my assumption was that in Q4, both line one and two would be producing the generation two cell, and that had two implications. The first was that line two would ramp relatively quickly because it was a cut and paste of line one. And the second was that line one could just continue building production volume. The result would be an S-curve that looks something like we see on screen, and the 4680 was about to hit the steep part of the S-curve.

在我第三季度收益电话会议的视频中，我说过我的观点是，Giga Austin的一号生产线正在生产二代电池，因为我们从Giga Austin得到的唯一图像显示的是二代电池。基于此，第二条生产线在第三季度开始扩产时将是一号生产线的复制粘贴版。也就是说，我的设想是在第四季度，一号和二号生产线都将生产二代电池，并由此产生两个影响。第一，二号生产线将相对迅速地扩产，因为它是一号生产线的复制粘贴版。第二，一号生产线可以继续增加产量。结果将是一个类似于屏幕上所见的S型曲线，而4680电池即将进入S型曲线的陡峭部分。

However, what Drew told us in this earnings call is that line one hadn't yet been converted to the generation two cell. That comment initially worried me, because my assumption was that to convert from a generation one to a generation two cell, it would mean shutting the entire line down, replacing the necessary equipment, recalibrating all the machines for a different cell design, and slowly re-ramping production. But that interpretation appears to be incorrect based on the information Drew provided in the next comment. He said, quote, in terms of what we're doing, we're currently running one production line, one assembly line, using two assembly lines for yield rate and improvement trials, and we have a fourth in commissioning. And four more lines will be installed in Q3 this year, end quote.

然而，在这次收益电话中，德鲁告诉我们的是第一条生产线尚未改装成第二代电池。这一评论最初让我感到担心，因为我的假设是，要从第一代电池转换到第二代电池，意味着需要关闭整条生产线，更换必要设备，重新校准所有机器以适应不同电池设计，并逐步重新加速生产。但根据德鲁在随后的评论中提供的信息，这种解释似乎是错误的。他说，“在我们目前的做法方面，我们正在运行一条生产线，一条组装线，同时使用两条组装线进行产量率和改进试验，并且我们还有第四条线正在投用中。今年第3季度还将安装四条生产线。”

When Drew says one production line and one assembly line, the production line likely refers to the electrode coating part of a cell line, and the assembly line likely refers to the rest of the cell line where the jelly roll is wound, inserted into the can, wetted with electrolyte, and the cell can seal. My understanding is that line one was the line that was responsible for the tens of millions of generation one cells Tesla produced last year, which is why I was concerned about a potential shutdown for re-tooling. However, based on Drew's delineation between production or coating and assembly, what may have happened over the last quarter is that the output of coating line one was diverted to the assembly line of cell line two, which was set up for the generation two cell for the cyber truck. That would have allowed Tesla to produce generation two cells for the cyber truck while converting the assembly line of line one to the generation two cell. That's as opposed to shutting down line one to convert to the generation two cell while at the same time ramping line two from scratch on the generation two cell, which would have negatively impacted the 4680 production ramp for longer.

当Drew说"一个生产线和一个装配线"时，"生产线"很可能是指电池生产线的电极涂覆部分，而"装配线"很可能指其余电池生产线，用于卷取电池芯、插入包装、加入电解液并封装电池。根据我的理解，一线是特斯拉去年生产的数千万台一代电池的生产线，这就是为什么我对可能的停产进行了担心，以进行改装。然而，根据Drew对生产线和涂覆以及装配之间的界定，可能在过去的一个季度中，一线的涂覆产出被转移到二线的装配线，后者专门用于生产赛博卡车的二代电池。这样，特斯拉就能够生产赛博卡车的二代电池，同时将一线的装配线改造成二代电池。这与关闭一线进行转换和同时从头开始提升二线的二代电池生产线形成了对比，后者会对4680电池的产能提升造成更长期的负面影响。

So next, when Drew says that they have two assembly lines being used for yield and rate improvement trials, what that could mean is that they're still running coating on one line and then using two or three of the assembly lines for both trials and cells for the cyber truck. Why would they run just one coating line? If that coating line is producing enough material for the cyber truck ramp and it also has enough spare capacity for test runs for the other assembly lines, then there isn't yet a reason to start running the other coating lines. That's because if there's still challenges with the dry coating process, which is likely going to be ongoing until they hit full production, it's better to focus all their engineering resources on one machine and optimize that before spooling up the other coating lines.

所以下一步，当Drew说他们有两条用于提高产率和速率的装配线时，这可能意味着他们仍在一条线上进行涂覆，然后使用两到三条装配线同时进行试验，并为Cybertruck提供电池。为什么他们只运行一条涂覆线？如果那条涂覆线产量足够满足Cybertruck的生产需求，并且还有足够的空闲产能用于其他装配线的试运行，那么还没有理由开始运行其他涂覆线。这是因为如果干涂覆工艺仍存在挑战，这很可能在全面生产之前会持续存在，最好将所有的工程资源集中在一台机器上进行优化，然后再启动其他涂覆线。

With regards to Drew's comment that they have a fourth line in commissioning and four more will be installed starting in Q3, that's in line with the advice that Drew gave last quarter, which is that they intended to ramp the first four lines of phase one early this year and have the second set of four lines producing by the end of the year. That means they're still on track to have eight lines installed by the end of the year, each capable of 25 gigawatt hours for a total of 200 gigawatt hours.

关于Drew的评论，他们已经投入使用第四条生产线，并计划在第三季度开始安装另外四条生产线。这与上个季度Drew所给出的建议一致，即他们计划在今年初启动第一阶段的四条生产线，并在年底前完成第二组四条生产线的生产。这意味着他们仍然按计划在今年年底前安装八条生产线，每条生产线可产生25千兆瓦时，总计达到200千兆瓦时。

As a side note, some people might question how I arrived at both phase one and phase two being 100 gigawatt hours each. It's because in the Q1 2021 earnings call, Tesla said they already had 100 gigawatt hours of equipment. The only building they had at that time that was geared for cell production and was near completion was giga Austin. So my assumption was that all of that equipment was installed as part of phase one. Then in the last quarterly earnings call, Drew advised that phase two involves another four lines that have greater capital efficiencies than phase one. So I've assumed that phase two is at least another 100 gigawatt hours.

补充一下，有些人可能会质疑我是如何得出第一阶段和第二阶段各为100千兆瓦时的结论的。这是因为在2021年第一季度的财报电话会议中，特斯拉表示他们已经拥有100千兆瓦时的设备。而在那个时候，他们唯一一座正在接近完成、用于电池生产的建筑是德克萨斯超级工厂。所以我的推测是，所有这些设备都是作为第一阶段的一部分安装的。然后在最近的季度财报电话会议中，德鲁透露第二阶段涉及另外四条生产线，其资本效率高于第一阶段。所以我推测第二阶段至少还有100千兆瓦时的产能。

With all that in mind, what's all this mean for the production ramp of the 4680? As I said last quarter, Tesla's not out of the woods yet. And we could see a situation where rather than seeing an S curve, the 4680 production ramp plateaued before continuing on. My assumption was that there could be potential technical challenges. Instead, it ended up being retooling that changed the shape of the S curve, which would cause a dip rather than a plateau. That means the new production S curve could look something like this. But we won't know whether that's the case until when or if Tesla celebrates another 10 million cell production milestone.

考虑到这一切，这对4680的生产增长意味着什么？正如我上个季度所说的，特斯拉还没有走出困境。我们可能会看到一个情况，即4680的生产增长会在达到顶峰后停滞不前。我原本以为可能会有一些技术挑战，但事实上是重新调整生产线改变了S形曲线的形状，这将导致出现一个低谷而非平稳期。这意味着新的生产S曲线可能会是这样的。但在特斯拉庆祝下一个1000万电池生产里程碑之前，我们无法确定是否会出现这种情况。

This also means that the projection I provided last quarter based on a 21% monthly growth rate in cell production also goes out the window.

这也意味着，我上个季度基于每月21%的细胞生产增长率所提供的预测也变得不准确。

Either way, all of this explains why Drew made the following comment. Quote, as with any major new production introduction, the factory and engineering teams collaborated to ensure the quality of the new design and process changes as their first priority.

不管怎样，这一切都解释了为什么Drew发表了以下评论。引用，正如任何重要的新产品推出一样，工厂和工程团队合作确保新设计和工艺变更的质量是他们的首要任务。

And now our focus returns to cost and production ramp in Q1. And definitely this is a big year for ramping 4680. End quote.

现在我们的重点回归到第一季度的成本和产量扩大上了。毫无疑问，这是4680产能扩大的重要一年。

My read of what he's saying here is that the team was focused on retooling and recalibrating the assembly line on line one. And for line two, they were working the kinks out of the new generation two cell assembly process. But now that that's out of the way, they can scale aggressively.

我对他在这里所说的理解是，团队专注于重新调整和重新校准第一条生产线的装配线。对于第二条生产线，他们正在排除第二代电池组装过程中的问题。但现在这些都已经解决了，他们可以积极扩大规模。

Why is Drew so confident that it's going to be a big year? I'd speculate that it's because the coding system on line one already hit a run rate of about five gigawatt hours per year and the third quarter of last year.

为什么Drew对于今年会取得巨大成功如此自信呢？我猜想这是因为去年第三季度，第一行的编码系统每年已经达到了大约五吉瓦时的运营量。

And as I said in the last video, they may have done burst production rate tests before committing to further investment for the next four cell lines, which are currently under construction in Austin.

正如我在上一个视频中所说的，他们可能已经在决定进一步为奥斯汀正在建设的下四条生产线投资之前，进行了爆发产能测试。

In the past few years, coding seemed to be the area where they were running into the most challenges and a cell assembly for the new cell design should, by comparison, be an easier challenge to solve. So if they have the coding problem solved, then the lines should ramp quickly.

在过去几年中，编码似乎是他们面临最大挑战的领域，相比之下，新细胞设计的细胞组装应该是一个较容易解决的挑战。因此，如果他们已解决了编码问题，那么进度应该会迅速提升。

The last comment about batteries was from Elon. He said, quote, we also expect to ramp orders from our suppliers. This is not about replacing our suppliers. It's about supplementing our suppliers, Panasonic CATL, LG and BYD end quote.

最后一条关于电池的评论来自埃隆。他说，引用，我们还预计会增加我们从供应商那里的订单数量。这不是要取代我们的供应商。而是要补充我们的供应商，包括松下、CATL、LG和比亚迪等，引用完。

This aligns with what I've said in the past about Tesla's broader cell strategy. They're taking a multi-pronged approach to ensure cell supply and the 4680 is icing on the cake.

这与我之前对特斯拉更广泛的电池战略所说的相一致。他们正在采取多管齐下的方法来确保电池供应，而4680电池则是锦上添花。

There are some people who view the 4680 as do or die, but as I've maintained over the years, in the short term, I view it as a chance for Tesla to maximize their growth potential, increase their profit margins and drive down the cost of their vehicles.

有一些人将4680视为生死攸关的问题，但正如我多年来一直坚持的观点，在短期内，我认为这是特斯拉最大化增长潜力、提高利润率并降低车辆成本的机会。

In the long term, the 4680 will become more essential when Tesla's in more direct competition with the likes of BYD. But that's about 5 to 10 years down the road and it's a video for another day.

从长远来看，当特斯拉与比亚迪等竞争对手更直接地竞争时，4680电池将变得更加重要。但这将在大约5到10年后才会发生，并且这个视频不涉及此话题。

On that note, as far as I'm aware, this is the first time that Teslas confirmed their buying cells from BYD, which were rumored to be used for their standard range vehicles in Europe.

在此之前据我所知，这是特斯拉首次确认他们从比亚迪购买电池，而传闻称这些电池将用于他们在欧洲市场的标准续航车型。

The final point here on cell suppliers is that Tesla doesn't need in-house production of 4680 cells to build a $25,000 to $30,000 compact vehicle. Tesla's current cost of goods sold is a little over $36,000 per vehicle, and that's an average figure that includes vehicles that have sticker prices of over $100,000.

在电池供应商这个最重要的一点上，特斯拉并不需要内部生产4680电池来打造一辆售价为25,000美元到30,000美元的紧凑型车辆。特斯拉当前每辆车的销售成本略高于36,000美元，这是一个平均数字，包括那些售价超过100,000美元的车辆。

A compact vehicle will prioritize price and scalability over luxury and performance. It'll have a much lower bill of materials because it'll weigh less and have a smaller battery pack, and Tesla will be using a manufacturing process that's expected to cost at least 15 to 30 percent less.

一辆紧凑型的车辆会更看重价格和可扩展性，而不是奢华和性能。它的材料成本会极大降低，因为它会更轻并且配备较小的电池组，而特斯拉将采用一种预计成本至少降低15%到30%的制造流程。

So depending on the size of the vehicle and its features, even without 4680 cells, it'll probably have a production cost of $20,000 or less.

根据车辆的尺寸和特点来看，即使没有4680电池，它的生产成本可能也不会超过2万美元。

With the key points of the earnings call out of the way, let's look at two recent rumors that might come up in the comments. One of the rumors is bullish and the other bearish. Let's start with the bullish rumor.

在整理财报电话关键要点之后，让我们来看看可能在评论中出现的两个近期传言。其中一个传言是看涨的，另一个是看跌的。让我们先从看涨的传言开始。

A few weeks ago, Joe Tegmeier reported that there were rumors that Tesla's running trials to produce asymmetric electrodes and that they're also looking to shift the higher nickel cathode materials. The end goal is to increase the energy density of the 4680 by 10 to 20 percent.

几周前，乔·泰格迈尔报道称，有传言称特斯拉正在进行运行试验以生产非对称电极，并且他们也在寻求转向使用镍含量较高的正极材料。最终目标是将4680电池的能量密度提高10%到20%。

If we go back to Drew's quotes from the earnings call, he also mentioned trials, but that they were focused on yield and rate improvement. That is, both Drew and Joe used the same wording. Trials. That doesn't necessarily mean the rumors from Joe were true, but given that the most logical next step to improve the 4680 cell is a higher nickel cathode, I think that part of the rumor is credible.

如果我们回顾德鲁在财报电话会议中的发言，他也提到了试验，但他们的重点是提高产量和提高速率。也就是说，德鲁和乔都使用了相同的措辞，试验。这并不一定意味着乔的传闻是真实的，但考虑到改善4680电池的最合理的下一步是采用更高镍的正极材料，我认为这个传闻的这一部分是可信的。

As for the asymmetric lamination rumor, it's more far-fetched and I'll be releasing a deep dive video on the topic in two weeks. Asymmetric electrodes turned out to be quite an interesting technical dive, and even if Tesla doesn't use the technology, I'm looking forward to sharing what I learned.

关于不对称层压的传言，这更为牵强，并且我将在两周后发布一段深入的视频来探讨这个话题。不对称电极事实上是一次非常有趣的技术探索，即使特斯拉没有使用这项技术，我也期待能分享我所学到的知识。

Let's move on to the bearish rumor. Last week, there was a report from Chinese sources on Weibo that Tesla's been expanding their 4680 production by importing cathode rolls from China.

让我们继续谈论这个看空的谣言。上周，中国Weibo平台上有一份报告称，特斯拉正通过从中国进口正极片纸卷来扩大其4680电池的生产规模。

Let's take a look at the history here to assess the rumor. For the generation 1 4680 cell, thanks to the teardown by UC San Diego, we know that the 4680 had electrodes that used a wet coating process.

让我们来看一下这里的历史，以评估这个传言。就第一代4680电池而言，由于UC圣地亚哥分校的揭示，我们知道4680电池的电极采用了湿涂覆工艺。

However, in the past year, there were two indications that the 4680 was no longer using the wet-coated cathode and had switched to a dry-coated cathode. First, at Investor Day, they advised the people touring the line that they were coating both the cathode and anode at Austin. Given that there's no indication that Tesla has wet-coating equipment at Austin, the assumption was that both electrodes for the 4680 were now being coated with a dry process.

然而，在过去的一年中，有两个迹象表明4680电池不再使用湿涂层阴极，而是转而使用干涂层阴极。首先，在投资者日，他们告知参观生产线的人们，他们正在奥斯汀同时对阴极和阳极进行涂层。考虑到没有迹象显示特斯拉在奥斯汀拥有湿涂层设备，人们推测4680的两种电极现在都使用干法涂层。

Second, when Sandy Monroe interviewed the executive team about the Cybertruck, Drew confirmed that the cybercell uses a dry process and that the electrode was produced in Austin. However, in both these cases, the wording wasn't explicit. For example, it's one thing to say a battery cell uses dry-coated material, but another to say both electrodes use dry-coated material. That is, there's room for doubt.

其次，在桑迪·门罗采访特斯拉执行团队关于Cybertruck的时候，德鲁证实了cybercell采用了干法工艺，电极则是在奥斯汀生产的。然而，在这两种情况下，措辞并不明确。例如，说一个电池电芯使用了干法涂层材料并不等于说两个电极都使用了干法涂层材料。也就是说，存在疑虑的余地。

Unfortunately, that doubt will linger until we have a teardown of the generation 2 4680. As soon as the cell is available, I'll do my best to get my hands on one and put it through its paces.

不幸的是，除非我们对第二代4680进行详细分析，否则这种怀疑将持续存在。一旦这种电池可用，我会尽力争取得到一个进行测试。

In summary, it's likely that Tesla's currently experiencing a dip in production rate for the 4680 after upgrading the assembly lines in Texas to the generation 2 cell can. Overall, my view continues to be that Tesla isn't out of the woods yet with the 4680 ramp, but that the outlook is positive. That's because, as far as I can tell, the dry-coating process for the electrodes has already proven capable of hitting a run rate of 5 gigawatt-hours per year. And my understanding is that the dry-coating process is the part of the 4680 line that's the most difficult to master.

总结而言，特斯拉目前可能正在经历一段生产速度下降的时期，因为将德州的装配线升级为第二代电池壳。总体而言，我认为特斯拉在4680电池产能提升方面仍然面临一些困难，但前景是积极的。这是因为据我所知，电极的干法涂覆工艺已经证明能够达到年产5千兆瓦时的运营水平。而且我了解到，干法涂覆工艺是4680电池生产线中最难掌握的部分。

However, the progress at Austin continues to be somewhat of a black box, and although I do my best to interpret the quarterly updates, sometimes there are multiple interpretations, and this quarter was no exception.

然而，在奥斯汀的进展仍然有点像黑匣子一样，尽管我尽力解读每个季度的更新，但有时候会有多种解释，这个季度也不例外。

Some people might rightly pose the question, what would it take for you to change your outlook from positive to negative? My response would be, if it turns out the generation 2 4680 cell is still using wet-coated cathode from China, Tesla as a company would be fine, but it would be a serious issue for the 4680 production system. But as we've seen in the past, most of the rumors about Tesla are often clickbait and untrue, so at this point there's no sense in hand-ringing until we have solid information one way or the other.

有些人可能会问一个正当的问题，你需要什么样的情况才会改变你的积极看法变成消极呢？我的回答是，如果第二代4680电池仍然使用中国生产的湿法涂层正极，对于特斯拉这个公司来说可能还好，但对于4680生产系统来说将是一个严重的问题。但正如我们过去所见，关于特斯拉的大多数谣言通常只是为了吸引点击率，不真实，因此在我们得到确切信息之前，纠结于这个问题是没有意义的。

Finally, to leave things on a positive note, in the conversations I've had with Joe Tech Meyer, his read of the mood of the cell team at Giga Austin is that they're quote, absolutely giddy, end quote, about the 4680 ramp. So fingers crossed that that's a leading indicator of where things are headed for the year, but at the very least it's useful to know that the 4680 team is highly motivated.

最后，为了以积极的态度结束，从我与乔·特克·迈耶的谈话中可以得出，他对Giga Austin电池团队的情绪感觉是他们对4680电池规模化生产非常兴奋。希望这是他们的情绪体现了今年的发展趋势，但至少知道4680团队有极高的积极性是很有用的。

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