Tesla: A Harsh New Reality ⚡️

These quarterly results are often my favorite times when it comes to following Tesla. Not because of the numbers themselves or even what we get to learn, but to watch everybody's reaction to the day. The expectations going into the call become very clear and I can get a great sense of the sentiment around Tesla from both Wall Street and retail.

这些季度的业绩报告通常是我追踪特斯拉时最喜欢的时刻。不仅仅因为报表中的数字或我们所能了解的内容，更是因为观察每个人对此的反应。进入电话会议前的期望变得非常清晰，我可以很好地感受到华尔街和零售市场对特斯拉的情绪。

This time around we have many Tesla bulls working overtime on the spin team, providing some opium for those that are coping right now, and we have many investors and fans that are disillusioned with Tesla, disappointed, frustrated, selling shares, and venting about Tesla's missteps.

这一次，我们的特斯拉多头选派了很多人加班加点来处理各种事态，并为那些正在应对的人提供一些麻醉剂。与此同时，我们也有很多投资者和粉丝们对特斯拉感到幻灭、失望和沮丧，纷纷抛售股票并对特斯拉的错误举动表示不满。

Some of you may be a bit surprised with what I have to say, but first we did get a teaching moment with that $5.9 billion non-cash tax benefit. This was further release of evaluation allowance on certain deferred tax assets. I didn't really see anyone explain this and VA's evaluation allowances happen all the time with startups, so it's worth a few seconds to share a hypothetical example.

你们中的一些人可能对我要说的话感到有些惊讶，但首先，我们通过这59亿美元的非现金税收收益得到了一次教训。这进一步释放了对某些递延税款资产的评估准备。我实际上并没有看到有人解释过这一点，而且VA的评估准备在初创公司中经常发生，所以值得花几秒钟来分享一个假设性的例子。

Let's imagine Tesla is a startup again and loses $100,000 in its first year, and its tax rate is 35%. Tesla can carry forward this loss to offset future taxable income. It's this loss that actually then becomes a DTA or a deferred tax asset, which in other words is just future tax savings. You wouldn't debit the DTA entry by $100,000 though, you need to multiply by the tax rate, so in this case $35,000 becomes your DTA and you would credit the income tax expense for $35,000.

让我们假设特斯拉重新成为一个初创公司，并在第一年亏损了100,000美元，税率为35%。特斯拉可以将这个亏损结转到未来的应纳税所得上进行抵扣。而这个亏损实际上成为了一项递延税资产（DTA），换句话说就是未来的税金节省。然而，你不会以100,000美元来借记递延税资产，你需要乘以税率，所以在这种情况下，35,000美元成为你的递延税资产，而你会以35,000美元来贷记所得税费用。

Then Tesla's accountant tells Elon in the board that Tesla probably won't ever have any profit or taxable income to offset, meaning Tesla could not carry forward that loss. Tesla would then set up a VA or evaluation allowance account. Remember when Elon said in the early days that Tesla had optimistically less than a 10% chance of succeeding? The accounting isn't critical here, but if you're wondering it would be debit income tax expense for $35,000 and credit the VA to reduce the DTA.

然后特斯拉的会计告诉埃隆，在董事会上，特斯拉可能永远不会有任何盈利或可抵消的应纳税所得，这意味着特斯拉不能将亏损结转。特斯拉将设立一个估值拨备账户（VA）。还记得埃隆在早期曾乐观地说特斯拉成功的概率不到10%吗？会计这里并不关键，但如果你想知道，它将借方记入所得税费用35000美元，并通过贷记VA减少递延所得税资产（DTA）。

Then in the future Tesla actually earns taxable income and makes a profit, now they can use that loss to offset their tax bill. This entire premise is however based on if it's more likely than not that some of the tax benefits will not be realized, then you would set up the DTA evaluation allowance. This is very subjective and why timing can be flexible and a way for some companies to massage their earnings.

然后在未来，特斯拉实际上赚取可征税收入并获得利润，现在他们可以利用这项损失来抵消税款。然而，这整个前提是基于是否很可能无法实现一些税收优惠。如果是这样，就需要建立递延税款资产（DTA）评估准备金。这是非常主观的，也是为什么时间安排可以灵活的原因，有些公司可以通过这种方式来调整其收益的原因。

This is clearly a one time item and it's thus backed out by Wall Street since it has nothing to do with Tesla's core business operations.

这显然是一项单次项目，因此华尔街对其不予考虑，因为它与特斯拉的核心业务无关。

With that many lesson out of the way, it's time for me to say what may be tough for some Tesla fans to hear. There may be more pain ahead. It's pretty simple really. Tesla previously got it to a 50% kegher that they've hit for 3 years now and yesterday they clearly said that was not going to happen in 2024. I've said many times before Tesla's guidance was not 50% every year but in the long run the plan was to average out to that rate. For that to remain true though, Tesla is now going to need massive growth in 2025 to 2027 to get back on track with that target.

随着这么多的教训告一段落，现在是我说出可能对一些特斯拉粉丝来说很艰难的事情的时候了。未来可能还会有更多的痛苦。实际上很简单。特斯拉之前曾经实现了3年以来一直保持的50%年增长率，而昨天他们明确表示在2024年不会再实现这样的增长率。我之前已经多次说过特斯拉的指导方针并不是每年都要达到50%，但从长远来看，计划是以这个增长率平均下来。然而，为了保持这个目标的真实性，特斯拉现在需要在2025年至2027年之间实现巨大的增长来重新走上正轨。

Let's say Tesla grows deliveries 17% this year which is what Wall Street is expecting. That would be about 2.11 million deliveries. So for Tesla to get back on track in 2025, it would then need 3.79 million deliveries which would require an 80% growth rate after exiting 2024 with that 17% growth. It's really not hard to see how this 50% growth gets out of reach very quickly and Tesla just admitted that this is the year it happens.

假设特斯拉今年增加17%的交付量，这正是华尔街所预期的。那将大约达到211万辆交付量。因此，为了在2025年重新找到正确的道路，特斯拉需要实现379万辆的交付量，这需要在2024年以17%的增长率退出后实现80%的增长。很容易看出，这50%的增长很快就会变得不可实现，而特斯拉也承认这一点是在今年发生的。

So obviously Wall Street is now adjusting their forecast because remember, the market really looks about 12-18 months ahead. And with significantly lower expected growth, especially if interest rates remain higher for longer and the consumer tightens up even more, price cuts may still be in Tesla's future.

因此，很明显，华尔街正在调整他们的预测，因为要记住，市场实际上是在看大约12到18个月的前景。而且预期增长大幅下降，特别是如果利率保持较高水平并且消费者更加紧缩，特斯拉未来可能仍需要进行价格削减。

All of this to say, I would at least be prepared for more pain ahead with Tesla stock this year. Rensing around the guidance and margin questions for this year only brings more uncertainty for Wall Street and we know they hate that so Tesla is going to be punished for it.

总之，我至少准备好Tesla股票今年会遭遇更多的痛苦。对于今年的指导方针和利润率问题的讨论只会给华尔街带来更多的不确定性，而我们知道他们讨厌这种情况，所以Tesla将因此受到惩罚。

Plus there are other details contributing to the downward EPS revisions on Wall Street in addition to the lower expected growth. Tesla's CFOs set a change in deferred tax accounting would result in Tesla's tax rate being closer to the S&P 500 rate of 20% which could end up in roughly a negative 10% hit to earnings per share going forward.

此外，除了预期增长下降之外，还有其他细节导致华尔街对每股收益进行下调。特斯拉的首席财务官们设定了一项推迟税务核算的变更，这将导致特斯拉的税率与标普500指数的税率接近20%，可能会对每股收益造成大约负10%的影响。

And yes, I know Tesla's auto-growth margin, X credits came in above expectations, stopping the fall that started in Q1 of 2022 when that figure sat at 30%. It did stop a quarter over quarter sequential decline for the past four quarters. But the question remains, is this number going to stabilize and tick up or will it just be a pause before further reductions? Honestly, the jury is out.

是的，我知道特斯拉的汽车增长率，X个学分超出了预期，阻止了2022年第一季度开始的下跌趋势，当时这一数字为30%。它确实阻止了过去四个季度的季度环比下降。但问题仍然存在，这个数字是否会稳定并上升，还是只是在进一步减少之前的暂停？老实说，这还没有定论。

For the full year 2023, Tesla's growth profit is down 15% year over year, operating income down 35% year over year. Free cash flow down 42% year over year, net income down 23% year over year. These are just the facts. It obviously doesn't mean the growth story is dead, but to expect Tesla to maintain a very high valuation multiple through this time is just not based in reality no matter how bullish you are in the long term.

到2023年全年为止，特斯拉的毛利润同比下降15%，营业收入同比下降35%。自由现金流同比下降42%，净收入同比下降23%。这只是实际情况。显然，并不意味着增长故事已经终结，但无论您对长期看涨有多乐观，预计特斯拉在这段时间内能够保持非常高的估值乘数是不现实的，这是基于实际情况的。

I'm sharing this because I've seen many Tesla bulls painting these earnings as great or even exciting and the way I see it as a whole, they're just really not. Yes, it's true that 2022 was a banner year for Tesla and the comps were astronomical, but when a company pulls off numbers like Tesla did in 2022, the expectations then shift upward. When Tesla was printing 33% auto gross margins and nearly 20% operating margins, that was what I would classify as exciting. Those days will be back, but patience is going to be required.

我分享这个是因为我看到很多特斯拉的支持者将这些收益说得很好，甚至令人兴奋，但从我的整体看来，实际上并不是这样。是的，特斯拉在2022年确实取得了非常出色的成绩，比较数字也是非常高的，但当一个公司实现了像特斯拉在2022年那样的数字之后，人们对其期望值也会上升。当特斯拉市场销售毛利率达到33％，运营利润率接近20％时，我会把这称为令人兴奋的时刻。这些日子还会回来的，但需要耐心等待。

So for the short term, the question then becomes who's to blame. Yes, interest rates are a big factor, but let's be objective here. What if Elon and the board put the next gen vehicle ahead of the Cybertruck these past few years? Could Tesla have maintained its 50% growth in that scenario? It's certainly a fair question to ask. We know Elon was banking on FSD being solved, which would have rendered a compact non-robotaxy vehicle somewhat irrelevant, but the fact is Elon's been wrong on that so far. And yes, Cybertruck first may help margins more and sooner than a compact would, but was one if not two stagnant growth years worth that trade off.

那么短期来看，问题就变成了谁是责任人。是的，利率是一个重要因素，但让我们客观地看待这个问题。如果过去几年埃隆和董事会把下一代车辆放在了Cybertruck之前，那会怎样呢？在这种情况下，特斯拉能否保持其50%的增长？这确实是一个公平的问题。我们知道埃隆寄望于FSD能够得到解决，这将使得一辆紧凑型非机器人出租车车辆有些不太相关，但事实是埃隆在这个问题上迄今为止是错误的。是的，Cybertruck先行可能会更快、更多地增加利润，但是两年甚至更多年的停滞增长是否值得这种取舍呢？

What about if Elon and the board would have started advertising much sooner? What if they would have been more public fighting back against the fud years ago? They clearly admitted on the call that they are aware Tesla has an awareness problem. In big markets like Japan and others globally, the Tesla team is now admitting what those of us who talk to other humans outside the Tesla bubble have understood. Tesla is a special company, but the average person has been duped into thinking otherwise.

如果埃隆和董事会早点开始做广告会怎样呢？如果他们在几年前就更加公开地与负面传言抗争会怎样呢？他们在电话会议上明确承认，他们意识到特斯拉存在知名度问题。现在特斯拉团队也承认，在日本等大市场以及全球其他地方，那些与特斯拉圈子之外的人交流的人已经明白了他们所听到的。特斯拉是一家特殊的公司，但普通人却被误导以为不是这样。

Tesla has had over $20 billion in cash sitting idle now for a while. They could have taken $500 million, hired some digital marketing savages, and went to town educating, fud fighting, and advertising, but they didn't, and now Elon and the execs are admitting it's a problem. But it still sounds like they're pretty reluctant to spend money here. I'm of course all for spending wisely and Tesla staying true to its hyper-efficient capital allocation, but the guys on the call are engineers and finance guys, not the marketing team. They're still not fully on board with the power of digital marketing, but they will realize this year they need to be in order to help bridge the gap to everything else that Tesla is working on.

特斯拉目前有超过200亿美元闲置现金。他们本可以拿出5亿美元，雇佣一些数字营销专家，并致力于教育、对抗恐慌以及广告，但他们没有这样做，现在埃隆和高管们承认这是个问题。但他们似乎仍然不太愿意在这方面花钱。当然，我支持明智花钱，希望特斯拉保持其超高效的资本配置策略，但在电话会议上的这些人都是工程师和财务人员，并不是市场团队的成员。他们仍然没有完全意识到数字营销的力量，但他们将在今年意识到，为了帮助填补特斯拉所从事的其他一切工作之间的差距，他们需要投资数字营销。

I think most of us here would agree that the public perception of Elon and Tesla has been distorted by mainstream media. We all need to ensure our family and friends are equipped to consume information without the glaring media bias that so many still can't see. When Elon simply explained why he has some concerns about growing an AI juggernaut without enough control to be influential, so many articles started painting it as Elon demanding another huge payday. There were over 50 sources covering this story, and the left-leaning political articles focused on Elon's influence, and the right-leaning articles were focused on the dual-class structure.

我认为我们这里的大多数人都会同意，埃隆和特斯拉在公众眼中的形象被主流媒体扭曲了。我们都需要确保我们的家人和朋友具备从媒体偏见中看清信息的能力，而这些偏见很多人仍看不到。当埃隆仅仅是解释了他对发展一个没有足够控制力以产生影响的人工智能巨头的担忧时，很多文章开始把它描绘成埃隆要求另一次巨额薪资。有超过50个来源报道了这个故事，左倾政治文章关注埃隆的影响力，右倾文章则关注双重股权结构。

This type of information and source aggregation is made possible by a company I'm eager to support in this day and age, ground news, the sponsor of this episode. It's a website and an app developed by a former NASA engineer to clearly highlight the biased distribution and political affiliation of each source based on ratings from three independent news monitoring organizations. In seconds, I can compare every headline from every source reporting on a story from the left, center, and right, and each story has tags showing the factuality of the source, the ownership of the source, and even better, I can go read the full article from any source with just one click.

这种信息和来源的聚合是由一家我非常愿意支持的公司——ground news实现的，ground news是本期节目的赞助商。它是一个由一位前NASA工程师开发的网站和应用程序，旨在清楚地凸显每个来源的偏见分布和政治倾向，根据来自三个独立新闻监测机构的评级。在几秒钟内，我可以比较每个来源在左、中、右侧的每个报道的标题，每个报道都有显示来源真实性、归属权的标签，更棒的是，我只需一点击，就可以阅读任何来源的完整文章。

With ground news, you can customize your feed with whatever topics interest you. I of course have one with just Elon and Tesla. When you subscribe, you not only support me with Electrified, you're also supporting an independent platform trying to make the news more transparent. Another mission I'm fully on board with. You can go to ground.news/electrified to subscribe through my link for as little as $1 a month, or you can get 40% off unlimited access to the vantage subscription, which is what I use. The link is in the description below.

通过ground news，你可以自定义你感兴趣的任何主题作为你的信息流。当然，我有一个只关注埃隆和特斯拉的信息流。当你订阅时，不仅支持了我创办的Electrified，也支持了一个旨在使新闻更加透明的独立平台。这是我完全认同的另一个使命。你可以通过我的链接ground.news/electrified每月仅需1美元订阅，或者享受无限访问vantage订阅的40%折扣，这就是我使用的订阅方式。链接在下方描述中。

All of the things we say about Tesla being so much more than a car company, how the competition is stuck in neutral, losing billions on EVs, scaling back their EV plans, quitting, even trying to solve for full autonomy, etc.

关于特斯拉不仅仅是一家汽车公司的说法，以及竞争对手在停滞不前、在电动汽车上亏损数十亿、缩减电动汽车计划、退出市场，甚至试图实现完全自动驾驶等方面，我们所说的一切都是事实。

The problem is, it's just a fact that Tesla's current financials only support so much of evaluation. Whether you agree or not, projects like FSD, Optimus, and Dojo are going to remain in prove it mode for the markets until Tesla proves it. In Wall Street's eyes, Tesla cannot sustain a PE over 60 with growth between 10 and 20%. The market has been expecting Tesla to pull rabbits out of hats and maintain that 50% growth through any type of macro environment, but for right now, there are no rabbits to be had so it should be pretty obvious that with growth expectations plummeting, for the timeline that Wall Street considers most heavily, that Tesla stock is going to get hit pretty hard.

问题在于，事实就是，特斯拉目前的财务状况只能支持有限的估值。无论你是否同意，像全自动驾驶（FSD）、Optimus和Dojo等项目都将在市场上保持“先证明再相信”的状态，直到特斯拉真正证明了自己。在华尔街看来，特斯拉无法在10%至20%的增长率下维持超过60倍的市盈率。市场一直期望特斯拉能像变魔术一样实现50%的增长，无论何种宏观环境，但目前看来，这方面并没有任何奇迹可望，因此可以明显地看到，随着增长预期的下降，尤其是华尔街最关注的时段，特斯拉股票将会受到相当大的冲击。

Then you factor in overall bearish sentiment and Tesla swings always being exaggerated with the massive amounts of leverage and derivatives trading Tesla, and an over correction is certainly possible here.

然后，考虑到整体的看跌情绪，以及特斯拉的波动往往会因为大量的杠杆和衍生品交易而被夸大，这里确实存在过度修正的可能性。

There are two more areas I want Tesla bulls to be sober about going forward.

在接下来的事情上，我希望特斯拉的支持者们能够保持清醒，有两个领域我想要提醒大家。

One is Dojo. We've known for a while Dojo has been a long shot, that's nothing new. Elon even mentioned that Tesla is working on future versions of Dojo, and that Dojo is up and running and training jobs and they're still scaling it up.

其中一个是Dojo。我们早就知道Dojo一直是一个悬念，这并不是什么新鲜事。埃隆甚至提到，特斯拉正在开发Dojo的未来版本，目前Dojo已经投入运行，并正在进行训练任务，他们还在逐步扩大规模。

However, it was clear as day that Elon wanted to emphasize the risk aspect of this project more so than the reward. I'm all for honesty and transparency, but this commentary probably wasn't ideal for recruiting purposes alone. I am glad however Elon took this tone because I've seen plenty of Tesla fans talking as if Dojo is a foregone conclusion to yield trillions in valuation for Tesla when it operates like Amazon Web Services. Elon said, plain as day, Dojo does not have a high probability of hitting this type of huge payoff. Personally, I'm great with Tesla taking risks like this, trying to integrate vertically, getting learnings from doing so, and if they spend a few billion over a few years and it doesn't materialize, it's not ideal, but so be it. Risk taking is what got Tesla this far and no company, not even Tesla, is going to bat 1000.

然而，显而易见的是，埃隆更加强调了这个项目的风险方面，而不是回报。我非常支持诚实和透明，但仅仅从招募目的来说，这种评论可能不是最理想的。然而，我很高兴埃隆采取了这种态度，因为我见过很多特斯拉粉丝谈论得如同Dojo给特斯拉带来了万亿估值一样，而它实际运作起来却像亚马逊网络服务。埃隆明确表示，Dojo没有很高的可能性能够带来如此巨大的回报。就我个人而言，我支持特斯拉像这样冒风险，尝试垂直整合，通过这样做获得经验教训，即使他们在几年内花费几十亿而没有实现，虽然不理想，但也没关系。冒险是使特斯拉走到今天的原因，而且没有公司，即使是特斯拉，也不可能100%成功。

The final area I want to saw to have sober judgment about for the next 1-2 years is cogs and margins. In the past year, Tesla has driven down the cost of goods sold by about $3,300 per vehicle or 8.5%, which has of course helped to offset the price cuts. But Tesla is now hinting that this $36,000 cogs is potentially a lower bound limit for cogs reductions. So yeah, Tesla can continue to play this penny removal game, but they're much closer now to being out of moves from a cogs reduction standpoint than they've ever been before with their current generation of vehicles. It's also fair to ask the question, how much of this cogs reduction was driven by Tesla's manufacturing genius and how much of it was driven by major reductions in commodity prices falling back down to earth.

我想要在接下来的1-2年中对成本和利润率进行清醒的判断的最后一个领域是成本和利润率。在过去的一年中，特斯拉将每辆车的销售成本降低了大约3,300美元，相当于8.5％，这当然有助于抵消价格削减的影响。但是，特斯拉现在暗示这个36,000美元的销售成本可能是降低销售成本的下限。因此，是的，特斯拉可以继续玩这种去除一分钱的游戏，但现在他们在降低成本方面的招数比以往任何一代车型都接近枯竭。公正地问一下，这种成本降低有多少是由特斯拉的制造才能驱动的，有多少是受到商品价格大幅下降的影响。

I of course would never doubt Tesla's agile manufacturing, their relentless innovation and supply chain negotiation power etc. But costs can only go down so far and it sounds like Tesla is close to the lower bound limit, meaning Tesla has less flexibility with future price cuts to not harm margins.

当然，我绝对不会怀疑特斯拉的灵活制造能力、持续创新能力和供应链谈判实力等等。但成本是有限的，听起来特斯拉已接近成本下限，这意味着特斯拉在降价方面的灵活性更小，以免损害利润。

So at this point you may be thinking, oh jeez is Dillon to bear now? If you know me, you know the answer to that, but I do want to be objective, fair, reasonable and as always, try to set realistic expectations going forward. Well I stand by everything I just said, what I'm about to say I believe is orders of magnitude more important to Tesla's future.

所以在这一点上，你可能会想，哦天啊，迪龙现在要来承担责任了吗？如果你认识我，你就知道答案了，但是我想要客观、公正、合理，并且一如既往地努力设定现实的期望。我坚持我刚才说的一切，而我即将要说的，我相信对于特斯拉的未来来说更加重要。

Remember when I mentioned Tesla advertising more to bridge this gap to the other things they're working on? Well those things are things that have never been done before in the history of mankind. For us to expect that Tesla just solves them in the short term isn't realistic or fair to anybody, Elon definitely deserves some blame for publicly setting terribly over enthusiastic timelines but go watch an FSD12 video. I'm still trying to suppress my excitement the best I can until we see it operating outside of California, but if the drives look as smooth and human like as the early videos have in California, this release may actually finally be worthy of a term like a breakthrough.

还记得我提到特斯拉需要更多宣传来缩小他们正从事的其他项目的差距吗？好吧，这些项目是人类历史上从未做过的事情。我们期望特斯拉在短期内解决这些问题并不现实，也不公平，埃隆肯定应该为公开设定过于热情的时间表而受到责备，但去看看FSD12的视频。我仍然尽力压制兴奋，直到我们看到它在加州以外的地方运行，但如果驾驶看起来和加州早期的视频一样平稳和类似人类的话，这个版本可能真的值得称之为突破。

Yes there are still bugs and instances where it needs intervention, but given how much faster the rate of progress should be, we may be in for a very exciting year of FSD development. And is it really any surprise that other automakers don't think it's real based on Tesla's conversations with other OEMs? These same OEMs that have had zero success in their autonomous efforts and have all backed off full autonomy to now just focus on level 2 A-dass.

是的，仍然存在一些错误和需要干预的情况，但考虑到进展速度有多快，我们可能即将迎来一个非常令人兴奋的自动驾驶（FSD）发展年。而且，其他汽车制造商不相信这是真的，难道真的令人惊讶吗？毕竟，特斯拉与其他原始设备制造商的对话可以看出这一点。这些同样的原始设备制造商在自动驾驶方面没有任何成功，现在都放弃了全自动驾驶，只专注于2级增强驾驶辅助系统（A-dass）。

The unfortunate reality is that we can know the truth. Tesla is the only company that has any real chance at solving generalized autonomy anytime soon, but until they take responsibility from the driver or see a massive uptick in the take rate, Tesla stock is not going to be rewarded for this progress. A time is coming when Tesla figures this thing out. Maybe it's 2025, maybe it's 2028, but let me be clear, Tesla will be the first to solve it, no one else is going to quickly follow unless they license it from Tesla and I will continue increasing my share count confidently until that time comes. Not financial advice because I have time on my side and not everybody does, like I always say though, the best things in life are worth waiting for.

不幸的现实是，我们能够知道真相。特斯拉是唯一一家在短期内有真正机会解决泛化自动驾驶的公司，但在他们从驾驶员身上承担责任或看到大规模的接受率提升之前，特斯拉的股票不会因此进展而得到回报。有一天，特斯拉将解决这个问题。也许是2025年，也许是2028年，但请让我明确，特斯拉将是第一个解决该问题的公司，除非其他公司从特斯拉那里获得许可证，否则没有其他公司会迅速跟进。我会继续增加我的股份，直到那个时候。这不是财务建议，因为我有足够的时间，而不是每个人都有，正如我经常说的，生活中最好的事情值得等待。

It's a similar story with Optimus. I wish someone would have asked about the timeline for Tesla deploying Optimus in its own factory rather than shipping one or making first deliveries. I know people are excited Elon said Tesla has a chance to ship some units in 2025, but the world is viewing this guess from Elon in the same lens they view Elon's comments about FSD timelines. On the back and forth between Elon and the team on the call, it sounds like even the team is skeptical that Optimus is ready for scale manufacturing with all of the safety precautions in place to prevent from malware attacks and also doing real useful work reliably for an outside company by next year. I'd have to say wouldn't Tesla want to use the first few thousand bots in their own factories before shipping to other companies? Tesla is not a small sub-billion dollar company like figure that needs a big OEM deal for market perception, financing, etc. Tesla should keep the bot in-house for early testing and begin replacing its own workforce to save labor costs, reduce injury rates, and so on. So yeah, Optimus is making incredible progress, but I'm not going to expect Optimus deliveries to third party companies in any sort of scale that moves the needle next year personally. If it happens, I'll be pleasantly surprised and of course I'm rooting for it.

对于Optimus，情况基本上是相似的。我希望有人能问一下特斯拉在自己的工厂部署Optimus的时间表，而不是只关注交付一台或者最早的交付时间。我知道人们对于埃隆说特斯拉有可能在2025年交付一些单位感到兴奋，但是世界对于这个埃隆的猜测跟他关于全自动驾驶时间表的评论一样持怀疑态度。在电话会议上，埃隆和团队之间来回的讨论表明，即使团队本身也对Optimus是否准备好进行大规模制造持怀疑态度，因为他们担心Optimus无法有效地执行安全防护以预防恶意软件攻击，并且不能稳定地为外部公司进行真正有用的工作。我必须说，特斯拉难道不想在将头几千台机器人交付给其他公司之前，先在自己的工厂使用吗？特斯拉不是像需要通过大型原始设备制造商交易来提升市场形象、融资等的规模不及十亿美元的小公司。特斯拉应该将机器人在公司内部进行早期测试，并开始替换自己的劳动力，以节省劳动力成本，降低伤害率等。所以，是的，Optimus取得了令人难以置信的进展，但我个人并不认为明年会有大规模交付给第三方公司。如果这样的情况发生，我会感到愉快的惊喜，并且当然我支持这一点。

So with all of that out there, let me just run through some other things that are also true. Tesla has the most pristine and impeccable balance sheet in the auto industry and it's also in the top tier of big tech companies when it comes to net cash relative to total capital expenditures and operating expenses. With $29 billion in cash, we know Tesla has an incredible capital allocation track record and this sets Tesla up beautifully for both ample reserves and ammunition to go on the offensive when it thinks the time is right.

所以，有了这些信息，让我简单列举一些其他也是真实的事情。特斯拉在汽车行业拥有最完美无暇的资产负债表，同时在大型科技公司中在净现金相对于总资本支出和运营费用方面也处于顶尖位置。拥有290亿美元现金，我们知道特斯拉拥有非凡的资本配置记录，使其在需要时具备充足的储备和弹药，以在合适的时间发起进攻。

Tesla's energy profits are up to $1.14 billion for 2023, up from 288 million in 2022, up almost 300%. Lathrop should have a second production line up and running by the end of this year, roughly doubling megapack output capacity. We said at the end of 2022 that in 2023, there was a chance Tesla energy does $1 billion in profit and what do you know, here we are. Depending on revenue recognition, this figure could spike to over $2 billion for 2024. These figures are with Tesla solar being essentially a complete dud this year with deployments down 36% year over year. So if Tesla ever cracks the code with the solar roof and interest rates come down, that's just more upside.

特斯拉的能源利润在2023年达到11.4亿美元，较2022年的2.88亿美元增长近300%。拉索普（Lathrop）工厂预计能在今年年底之前启用第二条生产线，大致将瓦特级储能系统（Megapack）的产量能力翻倍。我们在2022年年底表示，在2023年，特斯拉能源有可能实现10亿美元的利润，而现在看，我们成功了。根据收入确认方式的不同，这个数字在2024年可能超过20亿美元。这些数字是在特斯拉太阳能部门今年变得几乎无效，部署量较去年下降了36%的情况下实现的。因此，如果特斯拉能够解决太阳能屋顶的问题，并且利率下降，那将有更多的上升空间。

Tesla generated $2.06 billion in free cash flow in quarter 4, even after all of the price cuts and increased capital expenditures. This was the best quarterly result since quarter 3 2022. Tesla's services and other business has gone from losing $500 million in 2019 to making $500 million in 2023. As Tesla's fleet grows, its part sales grows, used vehicle sales grow, supercharger profits grow, merch sales etc. In 2023 wasn't just incremental growth, it grew 138% compared to 2022. By 2025, this could be another business line driving over $1 billion in annual profits for Tesla. Overall, it may have been a down year for Tesla, but they still grew total revenues 19% in a pretty challenging economic environment. It's not the growth we're used to, but it is still growth.

特斯拉在第四季度实现了20.6亿美元的自由现金流，即使考虑了所有价格下调和资本支出增加的因素。这是自2022年第三季度以来的最佳季度业绩。特斯拉的服务和其他业务从2019年亏损5亿美元增长到了2023年盈利5亿美元。随着特斯拉汽车数量的增加，其零部件销售、二手车销售、超级充电桩收入和商品销售等都在增长。2023年的增长不仅仅是累积增长，与2022年相比增长了138%。到2025年，这可能成为特斯拉每年盈利10亿美元以上的另一个业务线。总体而言，对于特斯拉来说，2019年可能是一个低迷的一年，但它仍然在相当具有挑战性的经济环境下使总收入增长了19%。这并不是我们习惯的增长，但它仍然是增长。

And most importantly, Tesla is hyper focused on FSD and Optimus. Two business lines that the world has never seen before, and with which the financial implications are impossible to know. I have no idea how much value Tesla stock should be given right now for Tesla's work on these projects, but quite frankly, I really don't care because I'm in this for the long run and for what Tesla's business will look like in 2028, not 2024. What I do know though is that Elon and the Tesla team read the internet comments. They see the articles about Tesla's failures and their laughable bets on robots. I have a strong conviction this is going to light more of a fire in Elon and the team to relentlessly pursue capital deployment excellence and rapid innovation to prove all of the doubters wrong.

而且最重要的是，特斯拉对全自动驾驶（FSD）和Optimus（自动驾驶卡车）非常专注。这是世界上从未见过的两条业务线，其财务影响无法预知。我不知道特斯拉目前的股票价值应该是多少，以支持其在这些项目上的工作，但坦率地说，我真的不在乎，因为我是为了长期而加入这个行业，我关心的是特斯拉在2028年会是什么样子，而不是2024年。我所知道的是，埃隆和特斯拉团队会阅读网络评论。他们看到了关于特斯拉失败和他们对机器人的可笑赌注的文章。我坚信这将激发埃隆和团队不懈追求卓越的资本布局和快速创新，以证明所有质疑者都是错的。

Everything we've known for years about Tesla is still true. Tesla has the best talent, the most exciting roadmap, the best culture for innovation, the best leader to light a fire under the engineering teams and to take big risks that could have other worldly payoffs. Again, not financial advice, but I have been rooting for this exact scenario. I've been eager to see Tesla hit 175, 150 and even lower.

多年以来我们所了解的一切关于特斯拉的情况依然如旧。特斯拉拥有最顶尖的人才、最令人激动的路线图、最适合创新的企业文化，以及一个能够激励工程团队并冒险追求超凡回报的最优秀领导者。再次强调，这并不是财务建议，但我一直期望看到特斯拉的股价下降至175、150甚至更低。

As I said, I have time on my side and am fully convinced that time is coming when Tesla does deploy robotaxes and does actually ship Optimus bots to third party companies at scale. It may be another few years of waiting, but whenever even one of these two events happens, it's going to change how the world views Tesla and Tesla stock.

正如我之前所说，我有时间作为朋友，并且完全相信那个时刻会到来，届时特斯拉将大规模部署机器人出租车，并将Optimus机器人实际运送给第三方公司。可能还需要再等待几年，但无论这两个事件中的哪一个发生，都将改变世界对特斯拉和特斯拉股票的看法。

We may have another year or so before the market starts pricing in valuation for the next gen platform, which leaves us in this in between growth wave phase. I know it's painful for some that need Tesla to perform right now and to those of you in that scenario, I really do empathize with you. But it's also true this is potentially the last window of acquisition at prices sub $200 that we may have.

在市场开始为下一代平台估值之前，我们可能还有大约一年的时间，这让我们处于这个介于增长浪潮中的阶段。我知道对于那些需要特斯拉立即表现的人来说，这是痛苦的，对于处在这种情况中的你们，我真的很同情。但事实也是，这可能是我们以低于200美元的价格进行收购的最后一个时机。

I of course remain as bullish as I've ever been for the long term Tesla story and I can remain this way while also being realistic with short term expectations and pointing out things Tesla could have done better to potentially be riding in the green these past few weeks as the market has hit all time highs. You know what they say though, one man's trash is another man's treasure and everyone selling their Tesla they view as trash right now for the next year or two is wildly valuable in my eyes.

我当然对特斯拉的长期发展故事一如既往地保持看涨态度，同时也能对短期期望保持现实，并指出特斯拉过去几周可能做得更好，以便能够在市场创历史新高的同时保持盈利。不过你知道，人们常说，有人认为是垃圾的东西，对另一个人来说可能就是宝贝，在我看来，所有现在看跌特斯拉并卖出的人，在未来一两年内将会是非常有价值的。

I did buy shares today and my plan is to continue buying all the way down each time Tesla stock falls another $10 increment. That's in addition to my monthly DCA amount. I said last year I was building up extra cash reserves for this exact moment and I wasn't sure if we'd get it but it's here. Not to throw salt in the wounds of those needing Tesla to appreciate now but I'm genuinely pumped we may get another shot at $150 Tesla stock.

我今天已经购买了股票，我的计划是每次特斯拉股票下跌10美元时都继续购买。这是我每月定期投资计划之外的额外投资。去年我说过，我正在建立额外的现金储备，为了这个确切的时刻，我并不确定我们是否会出现这种情况，但现在来了。我并不是为那些希望特斯拉股票升值的人增加伤口上的盐，但我非常兴奋，我们可能会有机会再次以150美元购买特斯拉股票。

To land the plane I hope I was able to convey the message that having sober expectations in this short term can still be paired with hyper conviction and bullishness in the long run. Being a Tesla bull does not mean trying to spin every negative into a positive or brushing anything negative under the rug and continuously moving the goalpost to cope with the times that Tesla comes up short. Based on everything I've seen from the Tesla community and the public the past 24 hours I felt as though this was the message that was most needed. One that can come to terms and grasp the short term expectations shifting down while maintaining the ability to see the bigger picture clearly.

为了成功降落飞机，我希望我能够传达这样一个意思：在短期内抱有清醒的期望，仍然可以与对长期持有的坚定和看涨态度相匹配。作为特斯拉的看涨者，并不意味着要把每一个负面因素都转变为积极的，或者将任何负面信息置之不理，并不断改变目标来应对特斯拉的不足之处。根据我过去24小时所见的特斯拉社群和公众反应，我感到最需要传达的是这个观点。一个既能够接受和理解短期期望下调的信息，同时能够清晰地看到更大的图片的观点。

This window of opportunity will not be here forever and it may not even be here for long but it is here right now. As I've said many times in the past I'm in Elon's camp. I see a path where Tesla becomes the most valuable company in the world eventually. For me that path is as clear as it's ever been but nobody ever said the path was going to be straight up.

这个机遇之窗不会永远存在，甚至可能不会持续太久，但它正在此刻。如我之前多次提到的，我站在埃隆的阵营中。我能看到一条通往特斯拉最终成为全球最有价值公司的道路。对我来说，这条道路比以往任何时候都更清晰，但从来没有人说过这条道路会一直一帆风顺。