Live: Tesla Q4 Earnings Call 2023 (TSLA)
发布时间 2024-01-25 00:21:41 来源
摘要
Listen to Elon Musk and Tesla management discuss Tesla's Q4 2023 financial results and answer questions from investors and ...
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
We announced at about 3 p.m. Central time in the update that we published at the same link as this webcast.
我们在下午3点左右中央时间发布了更新公告，该公告与这个网络广播链接相同。
During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.
在本次电话中，我们将讨论我们的业务展望并进行前瞻性声明。这些评论基于我们今天的预测和期望。实际事件或结果可能会因多种风险和不确定性而有实质性差异，包括我们最近提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件中提及的那些。
During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the race and button to join the question queue. But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.
在今天的问答环节中，请限制自己提出一个问题和一个跟进问题。请使用举手和按键来加入提问队列。在我们开始问答环节之前，埃隆有一些开场白。
Thank you. So the Tesla team did an incredible job in 2023. We achieved a record production and deliveries of over 1.8 million vehicles in line with our official guidance. And in Q4, we're producing vehicles and annualized run rate of almost 2 million cars a year. This is really a phenomenal achievement. Looking at just the 3 month factory alone, we made 560,000 cars. This is a record. In fact, it's the highest output of one motor plant in North America. And people often surprised that the highest output factory, car factory in North America is in the San Francisco Bay Area. It's a little counterintuitive perhaps. And it's really had an incredibly positive impact on that entire area. What would have been a rundown strip wall is the highest productivity car plant in the Americas. Think about that. It was derelict when we got it. And now it's the most productive plant in this entire part of the world. And it's enriched the community in so many different ways. It's really a gem. So I'm super proud of the people that work there.
谢谢您。所以特斯拉团队在2023年做得非常出色。我们按照官方指导实现了创纪录的生产和交付数量，超过了180万辆。而在第四季度，我们的汽车生产量以年化的速度接近200万辆。这确实是一个了不起的成就。仅仅看看过去三个月的工厂，我们制造了56万辆汽车。这是创纪录的。事实上，它是北美地区最高产量的汽车工厂。人们常常对北美最高产量的汽车工厂在旧金山湾区感到惊讶。这或许有点违反直觉。它实际上对整个地区产生了令人难以置信的积极影响。一个本应成为废弃的建筑现在是美洲地区生产效率最高的汽车工厂。想一想吧。我们得到的时候它已经成为了废墟，而现在它是这个世界这个地区最高效的工厂。它在很多不同的方面为社区带来了财富。它真的是一颗瑰宝。所以我为在那里工作的人们感到非常自豪。
Model Y became the best selling vehicle globally as predicted. The best selling vehicle of any kind, not just electric vehicles with over 1.2 million units delivered.
Model Y成功成为了全球最畅销的车型，如预测所示。它不仅是电动车中最畅销的车型，而是包括了所有类型车辆在内，已交付了超过120万辆。
The energy storage business delivered nearly 15 gigawatt hours of batteries in 2023 compared to 6.5 gigawatt hours the year before. So tremendous year over year growth. Triple digits. And yeah, I think we can continue to continue to see very strong growth. In storage as predicted, I said for many years that the storage.
截至2023年，能源储存业务交付了近15千兆瓦时的电池，而去年为6.5千兆瓦时。因此，年度增长非常惊人，达到了三位数。我认为我们可以继续看到非常强劲的增长。根据预测，我多年来一直说过储能会有这样的发展。
Business will grow much faster than the car business and it is doing that.
业务将比汽车业增长得快得多，并且正是正在实现这一点。
Free cash flow remains strong at 4.4 billion in 2023 in spite of. A record spending on future projects. So we had record capex expenses as well as record R&D. Other springs is to 2024. There's like to look forward to 2024.
尽管对未来项目进行了创纪录的支出，但2023年的自由现金流仍然保持强劲，在44亿美元。所以我们不仅在资本支出方面创下了纪录，研发方面也创下了纪录。展望至2024年，还有很多东西值得期待。
Tails is currently between two major growth waves. We're focused on making sure that our next growth wave driven by next gen vehicle. MG storage full self driving other projects is executed as well as possible.
Tails目前正处于两个重大增长浪潮之间。我们致力于确保下一波增长浪潮由新一代车辆、MG储存、全自动驾驶以及其他项目驱动，并且以最好的方式执行。
For full self driving we've released version 12, which is a complete architectural. Rewrite compared to prior versions. This is end to end. Artificial intelligence. So another bit nets basically photons in and controls out. And. It really is quite a profound difference. This is currently just with employees and a few customers, but we will be rolling out to. All who all those all customers in the US who request. Full self driving in the weeks to come. That's over 400,000 vehicles in North America. So this is the first time AI is being used not just for object perception, but for path planning and vehicle controls. We replaced 330,000 lines of C++ code with neural nets. Truly quite remarkable.
为了完全自动驾驶，我们发布了第12版，这是与之前版本相比的一次完整的架构改写。这是端到端的人工智能。因此，另一个位元净可以理解为将光子输入并控制输出。这是一个相当重要的区别。目前该系统仅供员工和少数客户使用，但我们将在接下来的几周内向所有在美国要求全自动驾驶的客户推出。在北美地区将有超过40万辆车使用该系统。因此，这是人工智能第一次不仅用于物体感知，还用于路径规划和车辆控制。我们用神经网络替换了33万行C++代码。真的是非常了不起。
So as a side note, I think Tesla is probably the most efficient company. In the world for AI inference out of necessity. We've we've actually had to be extremely good at getting the most out of hardware. This hardware three at this point is several years old. So I don't I think we're quite far ahead of any other company in the world. In terms of AI inference efficiency, which isn't going to be a very important metric in the future and in many arenas.
所以，作为一种附带说明，我认为特斯拉可能是最高效的公司之一。这是出于必要性，在人工智能推论方面，我们确实要非常善于充分利用硬件。现在我们使用的硬件已经几年了。所以我觉得在AI推论效率方面，我们在全球其他公司之前走得相当远。在未来和许多领域中，AI推论效率将是一个非常重要的指标。
See that the new model three is now available globally. So we didn't update it model three. While the call looks similar, a lot of work is going to make it better in every way. It is significantly quieter, more refined, better equipped, has longer range and many other improvements. And I recommend taking for test drive. If you have not driven a model three in a long time, you should really try the new one. So steady improvements.
看到新款Model 3现已全球上市，因此我们没有更新Model 3。虽然外观看起来相似，但我们对其进行了大量改进，使其在各个方面变得更好。它在噪音方面显著降低、更加精致，配置更好，续航里程更长，还有许多其他改进。我推荐你去试驾一下。如果你已经很久没有驾驶过Model 3了，真的应该尝试一下新的车型。我们一直在不断改进。
And we're very far along on our next generation low cost vehicle. This is an earnings call not a product announcement. So no doubt be many questions that try to ask us about new product new price coming, but we reserve product announcements for product announcements, not only calls. So, but we were very excited about this. And this is really going to be profound. And not just in its design of the vehicle itself, but in the design of the manufacturing system. This is a revolutionary manufacturing system, significant, you know, far more advanced than any other manufacturer or the main manufacturing system in the world. Like by by a significant margin.
我们的下一代低成本车型已经开发得很成熟了。这是一次收益电话，而不是产品发布。毫无疑问，会有很多人提问我们的新产品、新价位等方面的内容，但我们保留产品发布会上公布这些消息，而不是在这次电话中。尽管如此，我们对此非常兴奋。这将是一次深远的改变，不仅体现在车辆设计上，还体现在制造系统的设计上。这是一套革命性的制造系统，与世界上任何其他制造商或主要制造系统相比，更为先进，显著超越了其他制造系统。
Several years ago, I said that the most important competitive characteristic Tesla in the future will be manufacturing technology and you will really see that counter bear with our next gen vehicle. The first manufacturing location for this will be at a giga factory and headquarters in Orson, Texas. And then we'll follow that up with other locations around the world, probably our. The factory will hold in Mexico. We'll be second and then we'll be looking to identify the location perhaps by the end of this year or early next outside North America.
几年前，我说特斯拉未来最重要的竞争特点将是制造技术，你将真正看到我们的下一代车辆与众不同。这个制造地点将首先位于德克萨斯州奥森的超级工厂和总部。然后我们将在世界各地的其他地点建立类似工厂，可能包括墨西哥作为第二个制造地点。我们将在今年年底或明年初之前寻找位于北美以外的地点。
So in conclusion, we had a great year with record production record deliveries and a strong free cash flow in spite of a very high interest rate environment. And we are focused on exciting new projects that will. I think ultimately. If we execute on all these things and it is very hard to do all these things start a sure thing, but I do see a path. Where it were Tesla could one day be the most valuable company in the world. I would do enough size that is running easy path at a very difficult one, but is it now in the set of possible outcomes and previously I would not have thought at least instead of possible outcome. So and thank you again to all of our investors, our employees and our suppliers for a strong year and looking forward to a great 2024 and years to come. Thank you. Thank you and our CFO. We have some opening remark as well.
总之，尽管利率环境极其高涨，但我们在过去一年取得了空前的生产和交付记录，并实现了强劲的自由现金流。我们正在集中精力开展令人兴奋的新项目，我相信最终，如果我们能够在所有这些方面都做好，并不是件容易的事情，但是我确实看到了一条道路。在这条道路上，特斯拉有一天可能成为全球最有价值的公司。这将是一段非常艰难的旅程，但现在它已经成为了可能的结果之一，而之前我并没有认为这是一个至少可以考虑的结果。再次感谢我们所有的投资者、员工和供应商，在过去的一年中，我们取得了强劲的业绩，期待着2024年和未来更好的发展。谢谢大家！谢谢！我们的首席财务官也会发表一些开场白。
Thanks Martin. Good afternoon everyone. As Elon mentioned, we are the record year in terms of both production and deliveries for auto business as well as record deployments in our energy business. This was achieved despite 2023 being a challenging year in terms of higher interest rates and higher inflation. Big thanks to our customer for being with us through this challenging period. I would also like to thank the whole team for the result and dedication throughout.
谢谢马丁。大家下午好。正如埃隆所提到的，我们的汽车业务在生产和交付方面创下了记录，并且在能源业务方面也实现了记录性的部署。尽管2023年面临着较高的利率和通货膨胀等挑战，但我们仍然取得了这一成绩。非常感谢我们的客户在这个困难时期一直与我们携手前进。我还要感谢整个团队在成果和奉献方面。
In terms of 2023 financials, we ended the year with over 96 billion of revenue and generated 4.4 billion of free cash flow to end the year with over 29 billion of cash and investments on hand. Our 2023 cabinet income was impacted by the recognition of one time non cash benefit of 5.9 billion from the release of valuation allowance on certain different tax assets. This was due to our recent history of sustained profitability and is similar to several other companies who have recently gone through a similar change in their account. Accordingly, starting with Q1, our book tax rate will now be more in line with other companies in the SMT 500.
就2023年的财务状况而言，我们的年度收入超过了960亿美元，并且创造了44亿美元的自由现金流，使我们的现金和投资达到了290亿美元。我们的2023年度组合收入受到了一次性非现金利益的影响，因为对某些不同的税务资产进行的估值减免释放，金额达到了59亿美元。这是由于我们最近持续盈利的历史，与其他几家最近进行类似会计变更的公司相似。因此，从第一季度开始，我们的账面税率将更加符合SMT 500中其他公司的水平。
In our wake of business, we continue to see improvements in a per unit cost despite us being in the early phase of cyber truck. As a result, our auto gross margin improved sequentially. That said predicting auto gross margins is extremely challenging since there are many moving parts to this equation. Some of which are out of our control like the change in tariffs or local incentives to name a few. While the teams are focused on cost reductions, we are approaching the limits within our current platforms.
在我们经营业务的同时，虽然我们仍处于电动卡车的早期阶段，但我们仍然看到单位成本方面的改善。因此，我们的汽车毛利逐步提高。然而，预测汽车毛利非常具有挑战性，因为这个方程式中有许多变动因素。其中一些不在我们的控制范围内，比如关税变化或本地激励政策等。虽然团队正在专注于成本降低，但我们已经接近了当前平台的限制。
On the demand front, as promised, we made investments in digital campaigns in 2023. We fully appreciate the importance of customer education as we are still in the customer acquisition phase. Our data suggests that around 90% of our wake of bars in 2023 never owned a Tesla before. We are being creative in figuring out ways to bring in new customers and educate them about the benefits of owning a Tesla versus cash powered vehicles. The key among them being total cost of ownership. This concept is mostly overlooked for just the upfront cost. We will be regressed in evaluating our campaigns, curating the content and optimizing spend accordingly to support the overall demand.
在需求方面，正如承诺的那样，我们在2023年在数字广告活动上进行了投资。我们非常重视客户教育的重要性，因为我们现在仍处于客户获取阶段。根据我们的数据，约有90％的2023年销售的Model S从未拥有过特斯拉。我们正在创造性地寻找方法来吸引新客户，并向他们介绍拥有特斯拉与使用汽油驱动车辆的好处。其中最重要的是总拥有成本。人们通常只关注一次性成本，而忽视了这个概念。我们将回归评估我们的广告活动，精选内容并根据需要优化支出，以支持整体需求。
There are two additional things I would like to mention as it relates to the US market. First, for customers who qualify for the higher buyer credit, we now offer that as a point of sale benefit for Model Y, which means an immediate reduction of 7500 at the time of purchase to then customer. Secondly, we continue to offer very attractive lease rates for Model 3 and Y using a partner leasing program. Note that the sales under this program are recognized as upfront revenue and reported within automotive sales.
关于美国市场，我想提及两个额外的事情。首先，对于符合更高买家抵扣资格的客户，我们现在将其作为Model Y的现场销售好处提供，这意味着客户在购买时立即可减免7500美元。其次，我们继续通过合作伙伴租赁计划为Model 3和Y提供非常具有吸引力的租赁利率。请注意，该计划下的销售被认为是预收收入，并在汽车销售中进行报告。
An energy storage business had another record here with deployments more than doubling and revenues increasing by more than 50%. This business is poised to again surpass our auto business in terms of growth rate in 2024. This has been in the works for quite some time with us laying the foundation a few years back by building our mega factory in the through. I would like to thank the whole Tesla energy team for their efforts to make this a reality.
一家能源储存企业在这里再次创下了纪录，部署量增长了一倍以上，收入增长超过50%。预计到2024年，这个企业的增长速度将再次超过我们的汽车业务。这个计划已经在进行中，我们在几年前建造了位于XXX的超级工厂来奠定基础。我要感谢整个特斯拉能源团队为实现这一目标所付出的努力。
Our services and others business also started contributing meaningfully to our results. And our fleets as our fees goes as we expect the feed based revenues from supercharging use cars and services to continue to increase. For 2024, our focus is to continue growing our output, continuing our cost reduction efforts and increasing investments in our future growth initiatives. Accordingly, we are currently expecting our capital expenditure for 2024 to be in excess of 10 billion.
我们的服务以及其他业务也开始对我们的业绩产生了实质性贡献。随着我们预期通过超级充电使用车辆和服务获得的基于收费的收入持续增加，我们的车队规模也在不断扩大。在2024年，我们的重点是继续增长产能、持续降低成本，并增加对未来增长计划的投资。因此，我们目前预计2024年的资本支出将超过100亿。
We believe this would be critical in helping us lay the foundation for the next phase of the road. Once again, I would like to thank everybody at Tesla investors and our suppliers for being with us in this journey. We can open it up to questions, Martin. Thank you. Let's go through investor questions.
我们相信这对于帮助我们打下下一阶段道路的基础非常重要。再次感谢特斯拉投资者和我们的供应商一路以来的支持。现在，我们可以开始回答问题了，Martin。谢谢。让我们来回答投资者的问题吧。
Question number one is from Michael. Given that you move the start of the next generation compact vehicle production to Austin, has the timeline improved so that we might see the next generation platform vehicles in 2025? We certainly say things with they should be taking with a grain of salt. Since I'm often optimistic with, you know, I don't want to blow your minds, but I'm often optimistic regarding time. But our current schedule says that we will start production. Towards the end of 2025. So sometime in the second half. That's just what I current schedule says. That there's a lot of lot of new technology like the tremendous amount of new revolutionary manufacturing technology here. The reason I want to put the. This new revolutionary manufacturing line at giga. Giga Texas was because we really need the engineers to be living on the line. This is not sort of. Off the shelf. You know, just just works type of thing. And it's just a lot easier for Tesla engineering to live on the line if it's in Austin versus elsewhere. So. But but work we are currently expecting to start production second half next year. That that is that will be challenging. Production ramp like as a cat. I can't say we're really sleeping on the line practically. In fact, not practically we will be. But I am confident that once it is going, it will be head and shoulders above any other manufacturing technology that exists anywhere in the world. It's next level. So. It's always difficult to predict what that S curve of manufacturing looks like. It always starts off real slow and then it grows exponentially. So and predicting that intermediate S curve is difficult, but. So I don't know. It's hard to say what the unit volume would be next year. We're not going to make any predictions on that front. But it does seem quite likely that we will start production next year. Thank you.
第一个问题来自迈克尔。鉴于您将下一代紧凑型车的生产开展到奥斯汀，时间表有所改善，我们可能会在2025年看到下一代平台车型吗？我们当然说的话应该持保留态度。因为我通常都很乐观，你知道的，我不想让你们感到吃惊，但我对时间通常都很乐观。但是，我们目前的计划表说明我们将在2025年底开始生产。大约在下半年。这只是目前的计划。有很多很多新技术，例如海量的创新制造技术。我希望把这条新的创新制造线放在特斯拉德州超级工厂。之所以这样，是因为我们真的需要工程师在现场工作。这不是一个简单的拿来就能用的东西。而且，如果在奥斯汀，特斯拉的工程师能够更方便地在现场工作。但是，我们目前预计明年下半年开始生产。这将是一个具有挑战性的生产扩张，如同一只猫。我不能说我们真的会在现场睡觉，但事实上，我们会非常接近。但我相信一旦启动，它将远远超过世界上任何其它制造技术。它将达到一个新的水平。因此，很难预测制造业的S形曲线会是什么样子。它总是从非常缓慢的起步，然后指数级增长。所以，预测中间的S形曲线是困难的，但是。所以我不知道明年的单位产量会是多少。我们不会对这一点做任何预测。但似乎非常有可能明年开始生产。谢谢。
The next question is from Michael again. What has been the barrier to ramping 4680 cells into multi million cells per week? Rafe and when do you expect to get there? Yeah, first I just want to allow any concerns regarding 4680 limiting the cyber truck ramp because I've seen some people commenting about that today 4680 production is ahead of the ramp. With actually weeks of finished cell inventory and the goal is to keep it that way, not only for cyber, but for our future vehicle programs and as Elon said, it is an S curve here too. Like it's hard to predict these things, but I'm just describing our goals. It's a hard problem.
下一个问题是迈克尔再次提出的。什么阻碍了将4680电池扩展为每周数百万电池？雷夫，你预计何时能够实现这一目标？是的，首先我想解除关于4680对Cyber Truck扩产的限制的担忧，因为我今天看到有人评论到4680的生产超过了扩产速度。我们实际上有几周的成品电池库存，并且目标是保持这种状态，不仅适用于Cyber，还适用于我们未来的车辆项目，正如埃隆所说的，这也是一个S曲线。就像很难预测这些事情，但我只是在描述我们的目标。这是一个难题。
Yeah, no, there are entire companies where all they do is make battery cells. That's like the only do indeed. We do a lot of other things and we got a lot of we got a lot of breakthrough technologies that take time to figure out with 46. It's not just that it's a 46 millimeter diameter by 80 millimeter coal cell. That's just the dimension. There's traumatic new technology in the cell itself and manufacturing. Exactly. And just regarding what the team was able to do in P4 Texas successfully swap line one from the model life design of the cells and cyber truck design of the cell, which was the 10% cell energy increase I've mentioned before. And as with any major new product introduction, the factory and engineering teams collaborated to ensure quality of the new design and the process changes as their first priority. And now our focus returns to cost and production ramp in P1. And in terms of what we're doing, we're currently running one production line, one assembly line using two assembly lines in addition for yield and rate improvement trials. And we have a fourth in commissioning and four more will be installed starting in Q3 this year. So definitely this is a big year for ramping for you. We also do want to emphasize that we can also expect to ramp orders from our suppliers. So this is not about replacing our suppliers. It's about supplementing our suppliers. Yes. So we are very appreciative of our suppliers. You know, Panasonic obviously is our longest supplier. They're an amazing company. You know, we've got CATL, we've got LG. And be ready. Thank you.
是的，有些公司的专业就是制造电池单体。这确实是他们唯一的工作。而我们做很多其他的事情，我们有很多突破性的技术，需要时间去研究和探索。这不仅仅是一个直径46毫米、高度80毫米的电池单体，这只是一个尺寸。单体本身和制造过程中都有创新的技术。确实。关于P4德克萨斯团队成功将生产线从Model生命设计切换到Cybertruck设计，这导致了之前我提到过的10%的能量增加。就像任何重要的新产品投放一样，工厂和工程团队合作以确保新设计和工艺变化的质量。现在我们的焦点回到了P1的成本和产量的提升上。就我们目前的情况来看，我们目前正在运行一条生产线和两条用于提高产量和良率的装配线。我们还有第四条在调试中，从今年第三季度开始，将安装四条新的装配线。所以可以说今年是你们扩产的重要一年。我们还要强调的是，我们可以期待来自供应商的订单增长。这不是要取代我们的供应商，而是要给他们提供补充。是的。我们非常感激我们的供应商。毫无疑问，松下是我们最长时间的供应商，他们是一家非常出色的公司。我们还有CATL和LG等。准备好了吗？谢谢。
The next question is from Adam. Should retail shareholders be concerned that Elon has stated. Should retail shareholders be concerned that Elon has stated that he's uncomfortable expanding AI and robotics at this life. He doesn't have 25% of voting. Yeah, I guess let me explain what my concern is here, which is that I see a path to creating. An artificial intelligence and robotics juggernaut. Up truly immense capability and power. And my concern would be I don't want to control it, but if I have so little influence over the company at that stage. That I could sort of be voted out by some. So random shareholder advisory firm. You know, we've had a lot of challenges with institutional shareholder services, ISS. I call them ISIS. And glass Lewis, you know, which there's a lot of activists that basically infiltrate those organizations and have, you know, strange ideas about what should be done. So. So I want to. Have enough to be influenced like if we could do it, dual dual class stock, that would be ideal. I'm not looking for additional economics. I just want to be an effective steward of very powerful technology. And. The reason I just sort of roughly picked approximately 25% was that. That's that's not so much that I can control the company, even if I go bonkers. If I'm like mad, they can throw me out, but it's enough that I have a strong influence. That's what I'm aiming for is a strong influence, but not control. There's some way to achieve that. That would be great. Thank you.
下一个问题来自亚当。作为零售股东，是否需要担心伊隆表态称他不喜欢在现阶段扩展人工智能和机器人技术。他没有25%的投票权。是的，我想我可以解释一下我的担忧，我认为会造成一个巨大的人工智能和机器人垄断。具备巨大的能力和权力。我担心的是我不想控制它，但是如果在公司发展到那个阶段，我对公司的影响力非常小，可能会被一些随机的股东咨询公司投票所排挤。我们与机构股东服务机构（ISS）和Glass Lewis之间存在许多挑战，这些机构遭受了很多激进分子的渗透，提出了一些奇怪的想法。所以，我想要的是足够的影响力，如果我们可以采用双重股票结构，那将是理想的。我不是在寻求额外的经济利益，我只想成为非常强大技术的有效管理者。我选择大约25%的原因是，那个数量不太多以至于我可以控制公司，即使我失去理智，他们也可以把我赶走，但是它足够让我产生强大的影响力。我追求的是有强大影响力但没有控制权。如果有办法实现这一点，那就太好了。谢谢。
The next question is what is your expectation for automotive girls margin X regulatory credits for the full year. Like I said in my opening remarks were focused on reducing the cost of vehicles. This is very extensive and involved exercise where we whereby we look at not just the component cost down to, but down to the packaging used to get the materials to the production from. Each element of the cost is scrutinized to optimize further. A few pennies saved at the sub component level, whether through engineering redesign or for many other things which I mentioned. These two cost reduction. This is a constant exercise and we just have to chase down every penny possible. We have a strong team, which is hyper focused on this. However, this is a very difficult thing to predict. Precisely because they're a lot of no. We don't have a crystal ball, so it's difficult for us to predict this with precision. If the. If they're just rates come down quickly, I think. Modions will be. Good, and if they don't come down quickly, they won't be that good. Yeah. It's always important to remember that the best charity people buying a car is about the monthly payment. It's not that people don't want it. We have tons of. We have lots of people who went by a car that simply cannot afford it. And so and that as that as interest rates drop and that monthly payment drops, then they're able to afford it by the car. It's pretty straightforward. And there are no tricks around to get around this.
下一个问题是您对汽车女孩利润和监管信用的全年预期是什么。正如我在开场白中所说，我们的重点是降低汽车成本。这是一个非常全面和复杂的工作，我们不仅要关注零部件成本的下降，还要关注包装和材料供应等方面。我们会对成本的每个元素进行仔细审查，以进一步优化。通过工程重构或其他方式，在子组件层面上节省几分钱，这是一个不断进行的工作。我们拥有一个专注于此事的强大团队。然而，这是一个非常难以预测的事情。因为有太多未知因素。我们没有水晶球，所以很难精确预测。 如果这些成本降低得很快，我认为Modions将会很好。如果它们没有快速下降，情况就不会那么好。 是的。重要的是要记住，人们购买车辆的最佳指标是月供。并不是说人们不想购买，我们有很多人买不起车。随着利率下降和月供减少，他们才能负担得起买车。这非常直接明了，没有什么捷径可以规避。
Okay, thank you. Next question is does the company anticipate 50% volume Kager to be realized in either 2024 2025. If not, why not? As we've said in a prior guidance, there will be periods where we won't be going at the same rate as before. We are between two major growth ways. The first one began with the global expansion of model three and why. And we believe the next one will be initiated with the next nation platform. 2024 a walling growth will be. Lower as we have said. Because we're trying to focus the team on the launch of the next nation. We'll go.
好的，谢谢。下一个问题是，公司是否预计在2024年或2025年实现50%的销售额Kager增长率？如果不是，为什么？正如我们之前的指引所说，会有一些时期我们的增长速率不会像以前那样。我们正处在两个重要的增长阶段之间。第一个阶段是随着Model 3的全球扩张开始的，我们相信下一个阶段将由下一代平台引发。2024年将是增长趋缓的一年，正如我们所说的那样，因为我们正在努力让团队专注于下一代平台的推出。我们会继续前进。
All right. Thank you very much. The next question is from Michael. When will Tesla start construction on the giga Nevada expansion and giga Mexico? And when can we expect each of these to produce their first product such as 46 80 cells semi and the next gen vehicles? We have recently broken ground for the next phase of giga Nevada expansion to incorporate semi and other projects. But as said earlier as regarding Mexico, we want to first demonstrate success with the next generation platform in Austin. For we start construction. Therefore, we have started the long lead work to get the basics ready and plan to follow our recipe from the three Y ramp. Yeah, with Shanghai where we started with learning from Fremont and ramp really quickly. Yeah, exactly. It's important to emphasize that. I mean model three production was was three years of hell. Some of the other worst years on life frankly. I'm still at mental scar tissue. On that one of the three years as do many. Yeah. But then and then model Y was somewhat of a variance on model three so much a much easier situation. And then we're able to actually do an improved but slightly improved versions of in some cases, particularly improved versions of the model Y production line and sharing high and Berlin. And you know, that's that's the right. I think the sense of the sensible way to go about things is is kind of. Yeah, figure out the core technology that of the manufacturing line and then replicated with improvements throughout the world.
好的，非常感谢。下一个问题来自迈克尔。特斯拉何时开始在内华达超级厂和墨西哥超级厂的建设？我们可以期待这两个超级厂分别开始生产他们的首个产品，比如 4680 电芯半卡车和下一代汽车，需要多久时间？我们最近已经开始了超级厂内华达扩建的下一个阶段，以适应半卡车和其他项目的生产。但正如之前所说，关于墨西哥超级厂，我们希望先在奥斯汀展示下一代平台的成功。在开始建设之前，我们已经开始长期的准备工作，计划按照我们在上海进行的三型车产量的方式进行。是的，我们从弗里蒙蒂学习到的经验，以及快速实施的方式非常重要。没错。要强调的重点是，Model 3 的生产是三年的痛苦。事实上是我生活中最糟糕的三年。我仍然有心理创伤。这三年对许多人来说都是这样。然后 Model Y 在某种程度上是基于 Model 3 的变种，所以情况要容易得多。然后我们能够在上海、柏林等地实际上做到一些改进，部分甚至是显著改进的 Model Y 生产线。您知道，这是一种合理的方式，找出核心制造线的技术，然后在全球范围内进行改进的复制。
Thank you. The next question for Michael is, has there been any progress made with an FSD licensing agreement with another company? You know, I really think lots of car companies should be asking for FSD licenses, but. And we've had we've had some tentative conversations, but I think they don't believe it's real quite yet. I think that that will become obvious probably this year. And I do want to emphasize that if I were CEO of another company, I would definitely be calling Tesla and asking to license. Because of also driving technology. It's definitely the smart move.
谢谢。迈克尔的下一个问题是，与其他公司签订全自动驾驶(FSD)许可协议是否取得了进展?你知道，我真的认为很多汽车公司应该要求FSD许可证，但是我们已经进行了一些初步的交谈，但我认为他们还不相信这是真实的。我认为这可能在今年变得明显。我想强调，如果我是另一家公司的CEO，我肯定会致电特斯拉并要求许可，因为他们拥有出色的驾驶技术。这绝对是一个明智的选择。
Thank you. The next question from Sid Hart. What is the timeline for optimus first production of a volume production line and what are the barriers to getting there? Very optimus obviously is a very new product. An extremely revolutionary product. And something that I think has the potential to. The potential to far exceed the value of everything else that tells the combined. And when you think of an economy, economy is activity per capita times capita. But what if there's no limit to capital? There's no limit to the economy. And the technologies that we've the technologies were built for the car. Translate quite well to a human right robot because the car is just a robot on four wheels. It tells us arguably already the biggest robot maker in the world. It's just a four wheeled robot. So. Optimists is in a robot with a human right robot with arms and legs. It's by far the most sophisticated human right robot that's been developed anywhere in the world. I think we've got a good chance of shipping some number of optimus units next year. It's like I said, this is a brand new product. A lot of uncertainty is when you have when there's a lot of uncertainty in your uncharted territory, it's obviously impossible to make a precise prediction. But we will be updating the public with progress on optimus every few months. And you can see that the it's advancing very quickly. I was just in the optimus lab actually until late last night. It's like midnight or something. If I lift the optimus lab. The team is doing amazing work.
谢谢。下一个问题来自席德·哈特。优映第一批量产线的时间表是什么？有哪些阻碍因素？优映显然是一个非常新的产品。是一个非常革命性的产品。我认为它有潜力超越所有其他类似产品的价值。当你考虑一个经济体时，经济活动等于人均活动乘以人口。但是，如果资本没有限制，经济就没有限制。我们所拥有的技术是为汽车而设计的，而这些技术可以非常好地应用于人形机器人，因为汽车只是一种有四个轮子的机器人。可以说，它已经是世界上最大的机器人制造商了，只是一种拥有四个轮子的机器人。因此，优映是一种具有人类特征的机器人，拥有手臂和腿。它是全球最先进的人形机器人之一。我认为我们有很大的机会在明年出货一定数量的优映产品。就像我说的，这是一个全新的产品，当在未知的领域中存在很多不确定性时，很难做出精确的预测。但是我们将定期向公众更新优映的进展。你可以看到它的发展非常迅速。昨晚我还在优映实验室工作到很晚，大概是半夜吧。团队正在做出非常出色的工作。
Now that's obviously a case where we want to make sure that. Optimists is safe, especially at scale. And that there's no it should be impossible for. Any centralized control to upload malware to a human right robot. So we're going to want to. Well, then. Localize shuttle that cannot be updated from the. From from a central server. That that's the case where we really have to. Extreme thought to safety. But like said, I do think it has the potential to be. The most valuable most valuable product of any kind. Ever. By far.
现在显然是我们要确保的情况。在大规模上确保乐观派的安全。并且不能存在任何使命控制上传恶意软件到人权机器人的可能性。所以我们会想要。好吧，那么。局部的航天器是不可以从中央服务器更新的。这是我们真正需要极度关注安全性的情况。但是如我所说，我确实认为它有潜力成为任何类型中最有价值的产品。远远超过其他产品。
Just a comment on the barrier. I think the barrier and we've talked about this is like. Getting it to actually do something useful. Like like we can get it to walk around and get it do things, but it's like that utility part. We can already do some useful things, but like, you know, to making millions of these things. It's like utility got to get the utility. Yeah. A smart robot. That can do that. That's capable of doing generalized tasks. This one will be. In terms of doing. You know, moderately specialized tasks, but can already do that. And it'll just get better through through the course of the year. As we improve the technology in the car, we improve the technology and. Optimus at the same time. It runs the same AI inference computer that's on the car. Same training technology. I mean, we're really building the future. I mean, the Optimus lab looks like the set of Westworld. But admittedly, that was not a super utopian situation. Not the best reference. Yeah. The creators of Westworld. John and all and. At least John and all and friends. Old friends mind actually and. I invited them to come see the lab. I think. Well, come see it hopefully soon. It's pretty well. This is especially this sort of subsystem test stands where you just got like one leg on a test and. Just doing repetitive exercises and one arm and a test and. Pretty wild. Yeah, we're not entering Westworld any time since. Right. It takes safety very, very seriously. Thank you.
对于这个障碍的评论。我认为，我们已经谈论过这个障碍的功能。我们可以让它四处走动并完成一些任务，但关键是实用性。我们已经能够做一些有用的事情，但要让这些东西大规模生产，还需要提高实用性。智能机器人可以完成广泛的任务。这个机器人目前可以完成一些适度专业的任务，但是它会随着时间的推移变得更好，因为我们会不断改进车辆技术和Optimus的技术。它们都使用相同的AI推断计算机和训练技术。我们正在构建未来。Optimus实验室看起来就像《西部世界》的布景。但是，不得不承认，那个情景不太乌托邦。不是一个好的参考。是的，《西部世界》的创作者，约翰和他的朋友。至少约翰和他的朋友被我邀请去参观实验室。希望他们能尽快过来看看。实验室还是相当不错的。尤其是这样的子系统测试台，你可以在一个测试台上测试一个腿，然后又在另一个测试台上测试一只手臂。非常疯狂。是的，我们不会进入《西部世界》。安全问题我们非常重视。谢谢。
The next question from Nerman is how many cyber track orders are in the queue and when do you anticipate to be able to fulfill existing orders? First of all, I want to thank all of these cyber track. The residents for their patients. The reservation to order conversion rate so far has been very, very encouraging. If the trend continues. That's very likely to be. We will soon start out all the bills in 2024. And also, you know, we have new orders coming up to the launch. The other number keep it growing. So we're now all hands on deck focused on ramping so we can fulfill all the demands in a reduced time. Yeah, it's important to emphasize that this is very much a production constraint situation, not a demand constraint situation. And we know obviously we could dramatically raise the price, but that doesn't feel right to us to sort of get a gap. You know, gosh people. Yeah, early delivery. So. But really the demand is off the hook. As long as the price is affordable. I mean, I see us.
下一个来自Nerman的问题是请问有多少个网络跟踪订单在队列中，您预计何时能够完成现有的订单？首先，我想要感谢所有这些网络跟踪的居民们的耐心和预约转订单的转化率到目前为止非常非常令人鼓舞。如果这个趋势继续下去，很有可能我们将在2024年开始处理所有账单。而且，我们还有新的订单即将推出，这个数字还在增长。因此，我们现在全力以赴专注于提速，以在更短的时间内满足所有需求。是的，重要的是要强调这是一个非常明显的生产约束情况，而不是需求约束情况。显然我们可以大幅提高价格，但这样做对于我们来说并不合适，我们不想留下一些鸿沟，你知道的，天哪！是的，提前交货很好，但实际上需求是非常之高。只要价格合适。我认为我们可以。
Ultimately delivering on the order of. Quarter million, some like quarter million, a sub trucks here in North America. But maybe more, but give or take roughly on that on that. I'm and. It's a. I mean, it's a, it's a sure is it a head turner. Definitely. Yeah. Anywhere you go. People look up to you. Yeah, give you thumbs up. Yeah, I'd say it's like finally the future looks like the future. You know, just it's just a. You know, for the other trucks on the road there, which, and there's some very good trucks on the road. But if you were to switch out the brand name, you wouldn't hardly know which company made it, but you definitely would know the soundtrack. That's our best product ever. All right, thank you.
最终交付订单可能达到25万辆，有些像25万辆的一种汽车，在北美洲有些销量。大概是这样的数量，加减一点。它确实是一个注目的焦点，任何地方都是如此。人们都仰视你，竖起大拇指。我想说的是，终于，未来看起来像未来了。你知道的，就是这样。其他道路上的卡车，有些非常好，但如果你将商标换成别的品牌，你几乎无法知道是哪家公司制造的，但你肯定会认出声音。这是我们有史以来最好的产品。好的，谢谢。
The next question is, can we get Tesla energy volumes reported into production and delivery release? Yeah, we will strive to do so starting from this quarter. And just a brief update from the business perspective. Megaback continues to see strong demand signals globally driving consistent growth trajectory through 24 and 25. We want to thank all of our partners who put their trust in the MegPAC team to execute on critical infrastructure around. The world and I would like to personally thank the Megapack engineering and production teams for their strong. 2023 execution. Later continues to ramp through 2024 with the operation of a second final assembly line to double capacity from 20 to 40 gigawatt hours by the end of the year. Thank you.
下一个问题是，我们能否将特斯拉能源产量报告纳入生产和交付发布中？是的，从这个季度开始，我们将努力实现这一点。从业务角度来看，关于Megapack的简要更新是，全球范围内的强劲需求信号持续推动其一贯增长趋势，直到2024年和2025年。我们想感谢所有信任MegPAC团队在全球关键基础设施上执行的合作伙伴。我还要亲自感谢Megapack的工程和生产团队在2023年的出色执行。同时，我们将在2024年继续扩大规模，通过运营第二条最终装配线，将产能从20吉瓦时增加到40吉瓦时，年底前实现翻倍。谢谢大家。
And the last investor question is from seed heart. What are their preliminary results on the return on investment of your ads and education campaign? Given that many people still lack awareness that Tesla average price is less than the average non luxury car price of $45,000. Will you expand educational ads? As you all mentioned, the ultimate solution to increase the adoption is really address the affordability issue.
最后一个投资者问题来自种子心。关于您的广告和教育活动的投资回报率，他们的初步结果如何？考虑到许多人仍然不了解特斯拉的平均价格低于45,000美元的非豪华汽车平均价格。您会扩大教育广告吗？正如大家提到的，增加采用率的最终解决方案确实是解决经济可负担性问题。
But at the same time, we do aware there's a awareness issue as well. So in Q4, we ran a series of digital campaigns very targeted digital campaigns across different gos and different channel. The target of these tests is a religious revival awareness and ultimately measure the return of investment on those digital channels. And the messaging with driving is really focused on our product and also try to address some of the misconception of the EV. Such as safety affordability.
但与此同时，我们也意识到了一个问题，即存在着意识问题。因此，在第四季度，我们在不同的领域和不同的渠道上推出了一系列非常有针对性的数字广告活动。这些测试的目标是宗教复兴的宣传意识，并最终衡量这些数字渠道的投资回报率。我们的传播信息重点关注于我们的产品，并试图解决一些关于电动车的误解，例如安全性和经济实惠性。
In one particular awareness campaign where you've run in Texas, we're reached the audience about 10 billion unique viewers and generally close to half a million visits to our website. A large number of these viewers are first time visitors to our website. The traffic through these digital channels actually behave the very similar to those organic traffic come to our website.
在一次特定的意识宣传活动中，我们在德克萨斯州进行了推广，达到了约100亿个独立观众，网站访问量也接近50万次。其中许多观众是第一次访问我们的网站。通过这些数字渠道带来的流量实际上与自然流量的行为非常相似，即访问我们的网站。
So going forward, which is going to keep exploring different channels and doing our trials to get a better understanding of this deep effectance of this digital campaign. But I would like to caution that we'll be very careful that we don't want to overspend on this side. We want to make sure people are aware, but that's where we'll keep tweaking our methodology about how and where we spend the money. Because we understand the importance of increasing awareness, but at the same token, we don't want to spend a lot of money on just creating awareness.
所以在未来的时间里，我们将继续探索不同的渠道并进行试验，以更好地了解这次数字营销活动的深层作用。但我想要提醒大家，我们将非常小心，我们不希望在这方面过度支出。我们希望确保人们知道，但我们将不断调整我们的方法以及在何处花费资金。因为我们理解提高知晓度的重要性，但与此同时，我们也不希望仅仅为了提高知晓度而花费大量资金。
Yeah, I mean, also I'm geographies where our mock chair is remarkably low, like Japan, for example. Now, we also need to make sure that we have super charges in the right locations and the service centers are there and the part works well in Japan. So that's the third largest car market in the world of any country. So and we should at least have a mock chair proportionate to say other non Japanese car makers like Mercedes or BMW, which we do not currently have. So I think that's the case enough to when I talk to friends mind in Japan, they're like, there is like quite a lack of awareness of Tesla. So, you know, that's the case where we definitely need to increase awareness in countries and regions where there is. Yeah, not that much awareness. Thank you.
是的，我的意思是，我们的模拟椅在一些地区的份额非常低，比如日本。现在，我们还需要确保我们在正确的位置设立超级充电站和服务中心，并且零部件在日本运作良好。日本是全球第三大汽车市场，无论是哪个国家。所以，我们至少应该有一个与梅赛德斯或宝马等非日本汽车制造商相当的市场份额，而我们目前还没有。所以我认为这足以表明，当我和在日本的朋友谈论特斯拉时，他们说，对特斯拉的认知还相当有限。所以，你知道，在那些对特斯拉认知不高的国家和地区，我们绝对需要提高知名度。谢谢。
Let's go to analyst questions. The first question comes from Pierre Ferra Group from U Street research. Here, go ahead, please. Feel free to unmute. Pierre, can you hear us? Okay. Well, it's really tough to find the unmute button on on teams guide. I'm sorry for being late.
让我们继续提问分析师的问题。第一个问题来自于U Street研究机构的皮埃尔·费拉集团。请继续进行，随意取消静音。皮埃尔，你能听到我们讲话吗？好的。嗯，真的很难找到微软Teams指南上的取消静音按钮。对我迟到深感抱歉。
So yes, my question would be, you know, on like the cost reduction, you've talked about it already a lot. And if I look at it over the last like five, six quarters on average, the coke spare car has been coming down like more than two percent sequentially on average. So that means you're like on a trajectory of coke spare car going down 10% a year. So that's probably like unheard of in the auto industry. I don't think any car manufacturer ever achieved that. But that's very very mundane and very it's a good performance, which is a very normal performance in a lot of other manufacturing industry like my colleagues or consumer clinics.
所以，我想问的是，在成本削减方面，你已经谈论了很多。如果我看看过去的五六个季度的平均情况，可乐霓虹灯的成本下降了超过百分之二。这意味着你们每年可以将可乐霓虹灯的成本降低百分之十。这在汽车行业可能是前所未闻的。我不认为有任何汽车制造商能够做到这一点。但这是非常平凡的，非常正常的表现，许多其他制造业，例如我的同事或消费者诊所，这是很正常的表现。
And so I'd love to hear your thoughts about whether you consider yourself closer to the latter to like a micro exchange business where you have this ability to actually always improve course you have more control and how things are pulled together into your files and you see yourself sustainably taking cost down with that kind of pace. Or do you think your ability to take down curse is actually going to become more like in line with the rest in the industry over time?
所以，我很想听听你对自己是否更接近后者的想法，就像一个微型交易业务，你有这种能力不断改进，当然你对如何整理数据和降低成本有更多的控制，你是否认为你的降低成本的能力会逐渐变得与行业其他企业一致？
Yeah, I think I covered this in a pretty lengthy detail, even in my opinion marks and enough previous question, but to just for that life. We are constantly looking for what we can do to reduce costs. Like I said, it's a game of pennies. We've talked about it before as well. And the team is constantly going and checking where can we reduce the cost further. And do I believe that we will have the same pace which you've seen over the past few years. Probably not because remember we were coming out with a period wherein commodity prices were rising.
是的，我认为我在之前的问题中已经非常详细地涵盖了这个问题，甚至用了我的观点和足够的之前的问题，但仅仅为了那样的人生。我们不断寻找可以降低成本的方法。就像我说的，这是一场几分之一的游戏。我们以前也谈过这个问题。团队不断地检查我们在哪里可以进一步降低成本。我是否相信我们将保持过去几年所见的同样速度？可能不会，因为请记住，我们正处在商品价格上涨的时期。
So then we did see benefits coming from that. So those are more or less, you know, taken care of. But there is more which we're still chasing and you know, I would say a big kudos goes to the team out here at us lab both the engineering team as well as the supply chain team. Because every time we give them a challenge, they go, they go gangbusters to try and figure out whatever they can to take out for the cost.
所以我们确实看到了这方面带来的好处。所以这些基本上都得到了解决。但还有更多问题我们正在追赶，你知道的，我要说我们在美国实验室的团队真棒，无论是工程团队还是供应链团队。每次我们给他们一个挑战，他们都全力以赴，尽力找出可以降低成本的一切办法。
But yes, I would like I said, I would want to caution that do not project the previous cost reduction at the same pace completely in the future because with our current platform, we are getting to a place where in, you know, there is there are limitations. The increased scale also sort of helps us there as we introduce new products. We have the opportunity to go renegotiate existing suppliers for better pricing.
是的，就像我之前说的，我想要提醒大家不要期望未来的成本降低完全按照以前的速度发展，因为我们目前的平台已经接近了一定的限制。随着我们推出新产品，规模的扩大也在一定程度上帮助我们。我们有机会重新协商现有供应商的价格，以获得更好的定价。
We're looking at every penny like web oven, any lawn mentioned, just to give you an example, our inbound logistics cost has come down by 22% year over year. And this is because of optimization on using returnable packaging as opposed to, you know, cardboard, which is even better for the environment. Optimizing trucking routes, negotiating better pricing with shipping companies with trucking companies going with the full truck loads. And just doing that sort of the bigger we become the more we put thought into these things and the more efficient we become as a result of it.
我们像看待网页烤箱一样关注每一分钱，无论是提及到任何事情，只举一个例子，我们的入库物流成本已经每年下降了22%。这是因为优化了使用可回收包装而不是纸板，这对环境来说更好。我们优化了货车运输路线，与货运公司和货车公司就运输价格进行更好的谈判，并采取整车的方式运输。随着我们规模的扩大，我们越来越关注这些问题，并通过思考变得更加高效。
So those those works teams are going to continue. And we are also getting into the tears of supply chain to see where there are opportunities. Getting to the tier two, tier three, tier four levels and then negotiate those pricing as well to get more efficiency out of the system. And then on the design side, we're not static, right? Like, especially in areas where the technology is still improving rapidly. And so, you know, we're looking at the current car electronics as a great example. You know, we continue to bring improvements there that are like fundamentals sort of driven from the device up that result in cost reductions, generation, generation, and they don't only go into the new vehicles. They come to the old vehicles as well.
所以这些工作团队会继续进行下去。而且我们也在深入供应链的层次中，寻找机会。我们会涉及二级、三级、四级供应商，并进行价格谈判，以提高系统效率。此外，在设计方面，我们并非静止不动，对于技术仍在快速发展的领域尤其如此。所以，你知道的，在目前的汽车电子领域，我们持续带来改进，这些改进从设备级别向上推动，会导致一代又一代的成本降低。这些改进不仅仅用于新车型，也会应用到旧车型上。
So that's closer to what you were talking about with like the microelectronic space. Some of that exists in the vehicle. And certainly our car is more computer than car in many ways and there and has a lot of new tech over the last hundred years of online production. And it's great pennies from we have a crazy amount of computing that cars compared to anyone else. It's like, or is magnitude. And we get to ride that down, right? A thousand times.
所以这更接近你所说的微电子空间。车辆中存在一些类似的技术。毫无疑问，从多个方面来看，我们的汽车更像是一台电脑而不仅仅是一辆汽车，并且在过去的一百年里，在线生产方面有很多新科技。与其他任何人相比，我们的汽车计算能力非常强大。可以说是数量级的差距。我们将享受这个差距，一次又一次地，成倍地提高。
I mean, like if I just look at the main microcontroller that makes the motor truck go, for example, like when we when I think about what I cost when we stuck it in a roadster in 2006. So we've definitely been riding that electronics cost. Yeah. And then even on the like non which called traditional vehicle side, we do things in know other automakers do to bring costs down through breaking down the way structures are built and the way we put our cars together. And I think that mindset that we have is very much closer to the microprocessor or power electronics industry than the on mortgage.
我的意思是，比如，如果我只看看使卡车行驶的主要微控制器，举个例子，就像当我们想到我们在2006年将它安装到两厢车上时的成本。所以我们肯定一直在降低电子成本。是的。即使在传统车辆方面，我们也会做一些其他汽车制造商不做的事情，通过分解结构构建方式以及组装汽车的方式来降低成本。我认为我们所持有的这种思维方式与微处理器或电力电子行业更加接近，而不是按揭行业。
Thank you. Pierre. Pierre, do you have a follow up? Yes, a quick one. It's, you know, you mentioned this like phase in which you are between two to bigger gross. Gross periods. I'd love to hear you about, you know, what what you consider the size of your addressable market with the pot for you you have today like the three, the wise, the X and the S. What's your estimate of your addressable market you're shipping like probably about like a two million unit run rates today. And given the price points of these cars, what kind of market share of what you address with these cars you think you've already achieved today. I don't know if we've done any, I don't actually don't think we have a firm. Yeah, I'm like idea that's hard to say exactly.
谢谢你，皮埃尔。皮埃尔，你还有什么后续问题吗？有，一个快速的问题。你知道的，你提到了这样一个阶段，在这个阶段中你处于两个更大的增长阶段之间。我想知道，目前你们的目标市场规模是多少，对于像三、智能手机X和S这样的产品来说。就目前你们的运营情况来看，你如何估计你的目标市场规模？根据这些汽车的价格水平，你认为你们已经在这些汽车上获得了多少市场份额？我不知道我们是否已经完成了这方面的研究，我实际上认为我们还没有一个明确的想法，这很难说准确地。
Yeah, this I wouldn't say there's I mean, one way to think about it is look at the automotive industry as well. You know, he was still contribute a very small market share. So yes, our goal is to try and take as much market share out of that pie. But, you know, do I have a specific number to give you? I don't think we can say that with certainty. And it's a growing pie as well. Exactly. It's like it's 9% today, but it could be 20% in the couple of years or in the future. Yeah. And certainly like the way we've looked at it and we've always said this, it's not about how many EVs could sell, how many great cars you can sell, how many vehicles you can sell in that markets.
是的，我不会说有一个方法来考虑它，也就是看看汽车行业。你知道，他仍然贡献了一个非常小的市场份额。所以是的，我们的目标是尽量从中吃掉更多的市场份额。但是，你知道，我能给你一个具体的数字吗？我认为我们不能确定地说。而且它也是一个不断增长的份额。确切地说。今天是9%，但在未来几年或未来可能是20%。是的。当然了，我们一直以来的看法是，不是关于能卖出多少EV，能卖出多少好车，而是在这个市场上能卖出多少车辆。
You know, 100 million a year. And, you know, we're barely 2% of that. I still think there's 98% more to get. You know, I mean, it's worth noting that if you look at say the average selling price of the other top selling vehicles in the world, they are much lower price than the bottle Y. Yeah. So like two out of a wrap for. Corolla, Corolla, connoisseur, you know, they kind of think they're much lower price than ours. So people are really stretching their wallets to be able to afford to test that. It's quite a difficult thing for them to do. And remarkable that it's the best selling car in unit volume, despite being much more expensive than other high volume cars. Thank you. Let's go to the next analyst.
你知道，每年1亿辆。而且，你知道，我们才占其中的2%。我仍然认为还有98%的市场可以发掘。你懂的，我是说，值得注意的是，如果你看看世界其他销量最高的车辆的平均售价，它们比Y瓶要低得多。嗯。比如说丰田卡罗拉、康奴雷，你知道，它们的价格远远低于我们的。所以人们为了买得起那些车，真的是令他们的钱包吃紧。这对他们来说是一件相当困难的事情。而且令人惊讶的是，尽管比其他高销量车辆要贵得多，它仍然是销售量最好的车。谢谢。让我们继续下一个分析师。
The next question comes from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Hey, everybody. So I can't wait to see the optimist lab. I'm sure everybody in this call feels the same way your last a day. Elon was September 2022. Can we expect a Tesla a day this year? It seems seems like a lot's changed in that and that relevant. Is this year the time? Yeah, it's a good question. We have found that when we do these a days, some of our competitors literally look at what we do on a frame by frame basis. They do. And then we find these things being copied. Same thing with battery day. So we have to be a little cautious about. You know, revealing the exact recipe of the secret sauce. But I think some kind of update would be good to do. I'm not talking with the team and. Yeah, I think we'll we might do something later this year. I'm in goal with these things is recruiting. So. And to sort of change the perception of Tesla. And people think of Tesla as a car company when they should be thinking of Tesla as an AI robotics coupling.
下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的亚当·乔纳斯。大家好。我迫不及待想看到乐观实验室了。我相信这次通话中的每个人都有同样的感受，你们上一次是在2022年9月。我们能不能期待今年有一辆特斯拉？这方面似乎发生了很多变化。今年是时候了吗？是的，这是一个很好的问题。我们发现，当我们举办这些活动时，一些竞争对手会逐帧地观察我们的做法。然后我们发现这些东西被复制了。电池日也是一样。所以我们必须要小心一些，不要透露秘密配方的精确细节。但是我认为进行某种程度的更新是好的。我正在与团队进行讨论。是的，我认为我们可能会在今年晚些时候有所行动。我对这些活动的目标是招募人才。同时改变人们对特斯拉的认知。人们应该将特斯拉视为一个人工智能机器人的结合，而不仅仅是一家汽车公司。
Maybe as a follow up, Elana, I'd love your thoughts on the topic of. China based OEMs expanding into Western markets as that as the China market kind of gets saturated and there's. A tremendous growth in the supply. How much success. Should Tesla investors. Allow for this competition to achieve in Western markets and can you envision a scenario where Tesla could. Could partner with a Chinese OEM to help accelerate sustainable transport. In markets like Europe in the United States. Thanks. Well. Our observation is generally that the Chinese car companies are the most competitive car companies in the world. So. I think they will have significant success outside of China. But depending on what kind of tariffs or trade barriers are established. Right now, if if they're not trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish. Most other companies in the world. So. They're extremely good. We don't see an obvious opportunity to partner. You know, certainly we're happy to accept on the the supercharger front. We're obviously happy to. Give any electric car company access to our supercharger network. We're also happy to license full self driving. Perhaps licensed other technologies and. You know, anything that could be helpful in advancing the sustainable energy revolution. Thank you.
或许作为后续，Elana，我很想听听你对中国的原始设备制造商进军西方市场的观点，因为中国市场已经饱和，供应量也大幅增长。作为特斯拉投资者，我们应该允许这种竞争在西方市场取得多大的成功，你是否能设想特斯拉能否与中国的原始设备制造商合作，以推动可持续交通在欧洲和美国等市场的发展？谢谢。嗯，我们的观察是，中国的汽车公司是世界上最具竞争力的汽车公司。所以，我认为他们在中国以外的地方会取得显著的成功。但要看具体建立了哪些关税或贸易壁垒。如果现在没有建立贸易壁垒，他们几乎将击败世界上其他大部分公司。所以，他们非常强大。我们目前还没有明显的合作机会。当然，在超级充电器方面，我们乐意向任何电动汽车公司提供超级充电网络的使用权。我们也愿意授权完全自动驾驶技术，或者授权其他技术。无论什么可以促进可持续能源革命的帮助，我们都非常乐意提供。谢谢。
And the next question comes from then Levi from Barclays. Hi, good evening. Thank you for taking the questions.
接下来的问题来自巴克莱的莱维先生。嗨，晚上好。非常感谢你回答问题。
First, I'm wondering if you can just walk through some of the. Gating factors required to unlock your next gen platform. You talked about a number of cost initiatives. Back at the investor day a year ago, things in manufacturing and. And powertrain. Maybe you can just give us a sense of where these initiatives stands and. Do you believe it?
首先，我想知道您是否可以讲解一些解锁下一代平台所需的限制因素。您曾提到过一些降低成本的举措。在一年前的投资者日，您提到了制造和动力系统等方面的事项。或许您可以给我们一些关于这些举措现状的了解，并说明您是否相信其有效性。
We know that there's a number of new features and technologies and cyber truck things like. 48 volt architecture really employing your 4680 batteries. To what extent do you think cyber truck is really a proving ground. For the next gen platform and is really going to be a gating factor to. Unlocking the cost reductions needed for the next gen platform.
我们知道有许多新特性、技术和类似于电动卡车的事物。48伏特的架构真正利用了4680电池。你认为Cybertruck在多大程度上真的是一个验证场所，为下一代平台铺平道路，真的将成为解锁下一代平台所需的成本减少的关键因素吗？
Hmm. Yeah, I don't think that anything on cyber truck should be considered dating for the next time platform. We're obviously doing a lot of manufacturing innovation as you on side for the next generation vehicle. You know, when you do something at that scale, you have to prove it out. You don't just throw it on the line and just build it. So we're going through those validation phases for all of those new manufacturing technologies now. I'm sure 40 volt was definitely something we wanted to carry forward. You know, and it's something we hope the industry adopts as well. We're also open to partnering. Yeah, what do you. If everyone wants to do that. But people that really know that what this is like the inside baseball thing, but. It's man, 48. It's so high time that the water industry moved from 12. The random number of 12 to 48 number of 48. Yeah, well, it's much less random slightly less random based on human injury. I mean dramatically reduces the amount of copper you need in the vehicle and. You know, necessary moving to sort of higher bandwidth communications. It's sort of ethernet level communications of those campus, which is pretty slow, pretty slow. So it's really just bringing cars to the 21st century. Yeah, pretty much. So like certainly like it's not exactly as like normal for a laptop. Certainly bringing that like, you know, is is a evolution in our in our architectures of vehicles, but it's not gating by any means. The gating work is just to finish the design and manufacturing of the car, test them out and get them going. Yeah, programs and execution. Right. Right. So it's taught. It's taught talking about like tooling lead time. Manufacturing lead time. Factory lead time. Factory lead time and executing this program. There's a lot of specialized machines that make the machine for an extra in vehicle. So these are not machines you can just order from anyone. They actually have to design a machine that has never existed to build a car in a way that has never existed. Yeah, so you don't just have like a design validation phase, but you have an equipment design value phase as well. It does make it very hard to copy us because you have to copy the machine that makes the machine that makes the machine. Talk about tears. Yeah, yeah, it's like, you know, exactly manufacturing exception. So, you know, I do think it's quite a powerful, sustainable advantage. Because there just is no place to go to order the machines that make the next gen car. They don't exist.
嗯，是的，我认为我们不应该将Cybertruck上的任何东西视为下一代平台的约会。我们显然正在进行大量的制造创新，就像你在下一代车辆的一侧所看到的那样。你知道，当你以这样的规模进行某项工作时，你必须经得起验证。你不能只是把它放到生产线上然后建造它。所以现在我们正处于验证阶段，对于所有这些新的制造技术都是如此。我确定，40伏特绝对是我们希望保留下去的东西。你知道，我们也希望行业能够采用它。我们也愿意与他人合作。是的，你怎么想的？如果每个人都愿意这样做。但是只有真正了解内幕的人才知道这是什么，但是，48伏特是个太有必要的事情，以致于整个行业需要从12伏特迁移到48伏特。是的，嗯，这个数字不那么随机，根据人为的伤害而稍微减少了。我是说它大大减少了车辆中所需的铜量，而且也需要进行带宽更高的通信。它可以将这些校园的通信带到以太网的级别，这种通信速度非常慢，非常慢。所以这真的只是将汽车带入到21世纪。是的，基本上就是这样。就像，肯定不是像笔记本电脑那样正常。肯定带来了我们车辆体系结构的演变，但绝不是阻碍。阻碍的工作只是完成汽车的设计和制造，测试它们并使它们启动。是的，项目和执行方面。对，对。所以主要是讲关于工具线程时间、制造线程时间、工厂线程时间以及执行这个项目。有很多专门的机器可以制造汽车零件。所以你不能从任何地方订购这些机器。他们必须设计一种从未存在过的机器来制造车辆。是的，所以你不仅有设计验证阶段，还有设备设计验证阶段。这确实让我们很难被复制，因为你必须复制制造机器的机器。所以这就是所谓的制造业的例外情况。所以，我认为它是一个非常强大、可持续的优势。因为没有地方可以订购制造下一代汽车所需的机器。它们不存在。
Great. Thank you.
太好了。谢谢你。
As a follow up, your release does not mention dojo. So if you just provide us an update on where dojo stands and at what point you expect dojo to be a resource in improving FSD. Or do you think that you now have sufficient supply of NVIDIA GPUs needed for the training of the system?
作为后续，你的发布稿没有提到道场（dojo）。所以请你向我们更新道场的进展，并告知你认为道场什么时候能成为改善FSD（全自动驾驶）的可利用资源。或者你认为现在已经有足够的NVIDIA GPU供应来训练系统了吗？
I mean, the AI hardware question is, that is a deep one. So, we're actually hedging out bets here with significant orders of NVIDIA. GPUs or GPUs are the wrong word. They really need to be there's no graph. You can't like produce graphics. So that's what started graphing across the neural net bus in the middle of something like that. And yeah, GPUs are funny, funny word, like vestigial.
我的意思是，AI硬件问题是一个复杂的问题。因此，我们实际上正在用大量订购NVIDIA的方式在进行保守行动。 GPU或GPU这个词是错误的。在这里，它们的功能并不是生成图形。所以这就是开始在神经网络总线中进行图形处理之类的事情。是的，GPU这个词很有趣，有点像残余一样。
So, and a lot of our progress in self driving is training limited. Something that's important with training. It's much like a human. The more effort you put into training, the less effort you need in inference.
因此，我们在自动驾驶方面的进展很大程度上受到训练的限制。训练对于发展是非常重要的，它很像人类。你在训练中付出的努力越多，推理过程中所需的努力就越少。
So just like a person, if you if you train in the subject, you'll sort of class 10,000 hours. The less mental effort it takes to do something. If you remember when you first started to drive how much of your mental capacity it took to drive, it was yet to be focused. Completely on driving. Then after you've been driving for many years, it only takes a little bit of your mind to drive. And you can think about other things and still drive safely.
就像一个人一样，如果你在某个主题上训练自己，你将会达到大约1万小时的水平。做某件事情所需的精神努力越少。记得当你刚开始学车时，驾驶所需的精力是非常集中的。完全专注于开车。然后在多年的驾龄后，开车只需要你很少的心思。你可以同时思考其他事情，但仍然可以安全地驾驶。
So, the more training you do, the more efficient it is at the inference level. So we do need a lot of training. And we're pursuing the dual path of NVIDIA and dojo. But I would think of dojo as a long shot. It's a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it's not something that is a high probabilities. It's not like a short thing at all. It's a high risk high payoff program.
因此，你进行的训练越多，在推理水平上就越有效率。因此我们需要进行大量的训练。我们正在追求NVIDIA和道场（dojo）的双重路径。但我认为道场是一种冒险举措。这是一次很有潜力的冒险，但并不是高概率事件。它并不是一蹴而就的事情，而是一项高风险高回报的计划。
Dojo is working and it is doing training jobs. So, and we're scaling it up. And we have plans for dojo 1.5, dojo 2, dojo 3 and whatnot. So, you know, I think it's got potential. But the kind of size enough high risk high pail. So, I think this still makes sense given the, you know, even if it's just a high payoff. You know, even if it's a low probability of success. Yeah, I think, I mean, I'm delivering the subject. It's a very interesting program. It has the potential for something special.
道场正在运作，并且正在进行培训工作。所以我们正在进行扩展。我们对道场1.5、道场2、道场3等等都有计划。所以，我认为它具有潜力。但这种规模足够大，风险也很高。所以，鉴于即使只有高回报也要做出这样的决定是有意义的。即使成功的可能性很低。是的，我认为，我正在将主题传递出来。这是一个非常有趣的项目。它有特殊的潜力。
There's also our inference hardware in the car. So, we're, we're known. What's called hardware 4, but it's actually version 2 of the Tesla designed. AI inference chip. And we're about to complete design of. The terminologies, but confusing. We're about to complete design of hardware 5, which is actually version 3 of the Tesla design chip because the. Version 1 was mobile version 2 was Nvidia and then version 3 was, was to with Tesla. And we're making gigantic improvements with. From 1 from hardware 3 to 4 to 5.
车上还有我们的推理硬件。所以，我们很出名。它被称为硬件4，但实际上是特斯拉设计的AI推理芯片的第二代。我们即将完成设计。术语有些令人困惑。我们即将完成硬件5的设计，实际上是特斯拉设计芯片的第三代，因为第一代是移动版，第二代是Nvidia，第三代是特斯拉。我们在从硬件3到4到5的改进方面取得了巨大进步。
I mean, there's a potentially interesting play. Where when cars are not in use in the future. That's the. In car computer. Can do. Generalized AI tasks. Can run a sort of. You know, GPT 4 or 3 or something like that. And if you've got tens of millions of vehicles out there. Even in a robo taxi scenario, we learned heavy use. Maybe they're used 50 out of 168 hours. So, we're able to get a lot of people to leave. You know, well over 100 hours. Of. Time available of compute hours. It's like it's possible. With the right architectural decisions. That Tesla main the future have. More can compute than everyone else combined.
我的意思是，有一个潜在有趣的场景。未来，当车辆不在使用时。那就是车载计算机。可以进行智能任务。可以运行一种类似于GPT 4或3这样的智能系统。如果有数千万辆车存在，即使在自动驾驶出租车的情况下，我们会经受高强度的使用。可能每周只有50个小时是被使用的。因此，我们能够让很多人离开。超过100个小时的时间来进行计算。这是有可能的。通过正确的架构决策，特斯拉有可能拥有比其他所有人加起来还要多的计算能力。
Oh, great. Thanks for taking my questions. As we're thinking about going into 2024. The press release talks about hitting 36,000. It'll slightly above in Q4. And the comments of the release talk about approaching the natural limits. And it sounds like you're continuing to try to whittle that away. But that sort of implies there's not much left. In addition, you have the hourly wage increase, I guess we'll add to that. And I thought you said raw material costs are kind of that benefit is sort of almost late out. So is there an opportunity to continue to go below the 36 or should we kind of be modeling that it kind of stays at this level into 24.
哦，太好了。谢谢您回答我的问题。因为我们正在考虑进入2024年。新闻稿中提到的目标是达到36,000。在四季度将略高于此数。新闻稿的评论提到接近自然限制。听起来您似乎仍在努力削减这个数字。但这似乎意味着没有太多剩余了。此外，您还有时薪增加，我猜我们可以将其加入其中。而且我记得您说原材料成本的好处几乎已经实现。所以是否还有降低36,000以下的机会，或者我们应该预计它将在2024年保持在这个水平？
You know, we are definitely aware of the cost increases, which are coming through because of the wage increases. But like I said, you know, we keep looking at other cost opportunities and try and figure out where else can we cut down. So there is definitely more opportunity to bring down cost further. I won't specifically guide to a number, which we'll try and get to. But there's definitely more opportunity there.
你知道，我们绝对意识到了由于工资增加而带来的成本增加问题。但正如我所说的，你知道的，我们不断寻找其他的成本机会，试图找出更多可以削减的地方。所以，肯定还有更多的机会进一步降低成本。我不能具体指导我们要达到的数字，但肯定还有更多的机会存在。
Yeah, we're chasing. We're chasing lots of cost opportunities on the design side still for 2024. You know, north of a fingers is what we're being worth. And just in my organization, and largest got a bunch. And then from a commodities perspective, it's such a long. Cycle time through the whole material supply chain that even with what we've already seen to this point, there's more to come on commodities reductions. And there's still some tailwind left on the commodity doesn't mean aluminum and steel. Yeah. I'm bad.
是的，我们正在追逐。我们仍在追求2024年设计方面的许多成本机会。你知道的，超过一根手指的价值是我们追求的目标。在我的组织中，我们已经获得了很多。从商品的角度来看，整个材料供应链的周期非常长。即使与我们到目前为止已经看到的相比，还有更多的商品降价。而且商品降价还有一些正向因素，这并不仅限于铝和钢材。是的，我说得比较糟糕。
But it still it kind of boggles my mind to think that if we make a 1% improvement in costs, that's a billion dollars. Yeah. Yeah. So it's like on average, if we were to use the cost by one penny. A billion dollars. What? You know, and we started off. Yeah, in that one go. That we're only making like 10 cars a week. And. Yeah. So. Where does it lead ultimately? Yeah, with good execution. Like I said, it's not a, it's not a standard, but with, you know, if we execute very well, I think Tesla could be the most valuable company.
但是，仍然令我难以理解的是，如果我们在成本上提升1%，那就是十亿美元。是的。是的。所以平均下来，如果我们把成本降低一分钱。十亿美元。什么？你知道的，我们一开始，是一次性制造了10辆汽车。是的。所以，最终会导向何处？是的，通过良好的执行。就像我说的，这不是一个标准，但是如果我们执行非常好，我认为特斯拉可能成为最有价值的公司。
And you Colin, do you have a full off question? Yeah, just a quick follow up. And the commentary you mentioned the taxes would go to the S&P 500 level. I think you've been trending slightly below 10% S&P. I think it's typically 25% is. Is that going to, should we expect that to jump right up next year when we're modeling next year? Or it would be like a gradual change over the next few years. And any cash impact from that tax changes well that we should think considering.
而你，Colin，你有一个完全的问题吗？是的，就是一个快速的跟进问题。在你提到的税收评论中，你说税收将提高到S＆P 500水平。我认为你的趋势稍低于10%的S＆P。我认为通常是25%。在我们计划明年时，我们应该期待它会立即上升吗？还是在未来几年内会逐渐变化？对于税收变化是否会产生任何现金影响，我们应该考虑什么？
Yeah, so there's no impact on cash taxes from the release of the valuation amounts, which I spoke about. What it does is it's how you account for taxes. On your book on your books. So it's basically an accounting change. Where in, you know, there are certain jurisdictions because we had enough.
是的，所以发布评估金额对现金税收没有影响，这是我谈到的。它影响的是你如何对税收进行会计处理。在你的账簿上。因此，基本上是一种会计变化。因为我们有足够的原因，所以在某些司法管辖区会这样处理。
And what else, etc. When we didn't have to accrue taxes. Now that the valuation allowance has been released and we recognize different access on the books. That means your tax rate immediately goes up. Okay, I think that's all the time we have for today. Thank you so much for all of your questions and we'll speak to you again in three months. Thank you. Bye bye. Thank you.
还有什么其他的问题吗？当我们不需要计提税款的时候。现在估值准备已经释放，我们在账簿上确认了不同的准入方式。这意味着您的税率立即上升。好的，我想这就是今天我们有的所有时间了。非常感谢您所有的问题，我们会在三个月后再和您交流。谢谢。再见。谢谢。
All right. Hey everybody, just. Hang on here and we'll do some recapping. Stream down. And then I'm going to turn the volume of my audio up a little bit slowly here just because I'm not sure if they'll match. And hopefully we're at a pretty good level now. And we'll go back through the call and some of the takeaways from from the call. Just going to make sure everyone can hear me. So if you can just let me know that that's always a good check. As we start off here.
好的。大家好，稍等一下，我们将进行一些回顾。直播已经结束。然后现在我会慢慢调高音量，因为我不确定它们是否匹配。希望现在我们的音量还可以。我们将回顾一下电话内容以及一些重要的收获。我只是想确保大家能听到我。所以如果你们能告诉我，那将是一个好的检查。我们开始吧。
Audio good sounds good a little bit louder. Most people are saying good. Okay. All right. So I'm just going to scroll back through. We can kind of start from the beginning and we'll just go through the notes and talk about, you know, some of the highlights. Some of the things that are interesting. If you didn't catch it before, there is a link to the shareholder letter reaction and earnings report. Sort of summarizing that and thoughts on that. That link is in the description.
音频效果很好，听起来不错，再大声一点就好了。大多数人都说得不错。好的。好吧。所以我们可以从头开始浏览一遍，看一下笔记，讨论一下一些亮点，一些有趣的事情。如果之前没有注意到的话，描述中有一个链接可以参考股东信和财报的反馈，对此进行概括和思考。
All right. Let's get into the opening comments. Opening comments. I felt like we're pretty well prepared. I think Elon spent a little bit of time, maybe a little bit more time than he has in recent calls on those opening comments. Maybe that's just because it's a key for and kind of end of year update, but I thought those were well stated and sounded quite optimistic during that period of time, which was nice. So I liked the opening comments. Obviously, a lot of these things are going to be things that we already knew from the earnings deck that they're kind of just summarizing. Because sometimes not everybody reads the earnings deck and things like that. But hopefully everybody is. So I'm just going to kind of go through and see.
好的，让我们进入开场白。开场白。我觉得我们准备得非常充分。我认为埃隆在这些开场白上花了一点时间，可能比最近的一些电话更多一些时间。也许这只是因为这是一个关键的年底更新，但我认为那些陈述得很好，在那段时间内听起来相当乐观，这很好。所以我喜欢这个开场白。显然，很多这些东西都是我们从财报中已经知道的，他们只是在总结。因为有时候并不是每个人都看财报之类的东西。但是希望每个人都看了。所以我只是想看一看。
So next gen vehicle, they actually sent quite a bit about that. So we'll spend some time on that. All right. FSD V12. So that was maybe the first big news. We've seen it. I think a couple of customers get V12 so far. It sounds like whole Mars has it and then maybe a few other people, not 100% sure. But it looks like they're going to hopefully roll this out to all customers in the US or in North America. It wasn't 100% clear on that. Over 400,000 vehicles in the next few weeks. So hopefully we don't have too long of a wait before we're seeing this more broadly roll out. Obviously, the cadence is usually to test with a small group and then presumably those tests go well. Maybe tweak a few things and then start to expand it. So we'll look forward to that as Elon emphasized, as we all know, this will be the first time they're using neural networks or planning purposes. For entirely for the planning purposes, of course, they've been using it for the perception for a while now. So very exciting and we'll keep an eye on V12.
下一代车辆的消息，他们实际上发送了相当多的相关信息。所以我们会花一些时间来了解这方面的情况。好的，FSD V12。这可能是第一个重要的消息。我想迄今为止已经有一些客户使用了V12。听起来整个Mars地区可能已经有了，还可能有其他一些人，但不确定百分之百。但是看起来他们希望在接下来的几周内将其推广到所有美国或北美地区的客户。对于我们来说，希望不需要等待太长时间才能看到更广泛的推出。显然，通常的做法是先测试一小部分用户，假设测试进展顺利，可能会微调一些细节，然后开始扩大推广。所以我们将期待这一点，正如埃隆强调的那样，众所周知，这将是他们第一次完全用于规划目的的神经网络。当然，对于感知方面，他们已经使用了一段时间了。非常令人兴奋，我们将密切关注V12的发展。
Elon made a good point about just Tesla being very efficient with AI inference. Elon's talked about this before right now. A lot of it is just kind of throwing hardware at problems. And obviously that is very beneficial for Nvidia right now. But because Tesla has been constrained by the hardware that they've had in these vehicles, which at this point, I don't know, what are we? Hardware 3 2019? Was it 2017 even? It's been a long time. So that hardware is very old and Tesla's been able to get to where they are now on that older hardware through better leveraging software. And that should give them a lot of learnings for the future and hopefully make them more efficient when they do have hardware upgrades like we're seeing with hardware 4. As Elon noted, that's version 2 of what Tesla is designed and then version 3 of what Tesla designed with hardware 5. Sounds like it's in the works and maybe we see that actually implemented into vehicles a little bit sooner than we would have seen the change from hardware 3 to hardware 4. So I think a lot to be excited about from that perspective and just a good point to bring up in general. As Elon noted, very important metric in the future in many areas, probably already an important metric today that is under analyzed.
埃隆谈到了特斯拉在AI推断方面的高效性。他之前已经谈论过这个问题。其中很大部分是通过硬件去解决问题。显然，对于Nvidia来说现在是非常有利的。但是由于特斯拉受限于这些车辆中所使用的硬件，现在是什么情况呢？硬件3是2019年吗？甚至是2017年？时间过去很久了。所以这些硬件非常老旧，特斯拉能够通过更好地利用软件在这些老旧硬件上取得目前的成就。这应该为他们未来带来很多经验教训，并希望在像硬件4这样的硬件升级时使他们更加高效。正如埃隆指出的那样，那是特斯拉设计的第二版，然后是特斯拉设计的第三版硬件5。听起来这个正在进行中，也许我们会在从硬件3转变到硬件4的变化之前看到它被实际应用到车辆中。所以从那个角度来看，我认为有很多令人兴奋的事情，这是一个很好的观点。正如埃隆所指出的，这是未来很重要的一个指标，在许多领域可能已经是一个重要的指标，但是还没有得到足够的分析。
Model 3, I've talked plenty about that. Next generation vehicle, so he said they were quote unquote very far along. Very excited about the vehicle and manufacturing system, far more advanced manufacturing system than any other in the world by a significant margin. We've heard comments like that before, but again, a little bit later, shared a little bit more. Elon for many years has said that long term Tesla's most sustainable competitive advantage would be manufacturing capability, which I think has always been a little bit strange to people. I think people have kind of always assumed it would be, you know, full self-driving technology, things like that. And I think there's good arguments for those things too in their value contribution and competitive contribution, but it is interesting to see Elon continue to reiterate that and be excited about that element. When they are obviously right now very deep in the production line plans for the next generation vehicle. So good to see that.
有关Model 3，我已经谈论得很多了。他说下一代车款的开发已经相当进展顺利。对于这款车辆和生产系统，他非常兴奋，认为其制造系统比世界上任何其他系统都要先进得多。我们之前也听过类似的评论，但稍后他又透露了一些细节。埃隆多年来一直说，特斯拉的最可持续的竞争优势将是制造能力，这对许多人来说可能有些奇怪。我认为人们一直以为它可能是全自动驾驶技术之类的东西，这也有其在价值和竞争力方面的好处，但看到埃隆继续强调和对制造能力感到兴奋是很有趣的。他们显然目前正在深入制定下一代车辆的生产线计划，这很好。
Elon reiterating that he could see a path to Tesla one day being the most valuable company in the world. He didn't say Apple and Aramco combined this time, but of course, I think we would all be happy with an outcome like that as well.
埃隆再次强调，他认为特斯拉有望成为世界上市值最高的公司。这次他没有提到苹果和阿美(沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司)的总和，但当然，我相信我们所有人都会对这样的结果感到满意。
CFO opening remarks. I don't think we heard anything too new here, maybe except for this tax rate. So with the deferred tax now being recognized or released this quarter, which we talked about when the earnings report came out, it looks like the income tax rate is going to increase sharply here. So they mentioned from maybe 10% trailing 12 months or so to something like 25% could be a possibility. I guess I can just look here quickly. I probably have my earnings report stuff still up. So I'm just going to check that it'll take probably 10 seconds here. Alright, so income tax over the last, let's see. It's been about 200 million a quarter, so that's maybe going to double, you know, maybe a little bit more than double. You were looking at more like four, 500 million a quarter for income taxes for the provision for income taxes, if that's the case. So we'd be talking about a couple hundred million dollar impact. That happens below operating income and prior to net income is where that line item falls. So that would be something that would reduce bottom line earnings per share, but would not impact operating margins. So obviously it'll be interesting to see how people interpret that. As you said, there's no change to cash, but obviously sometimes people care a little bit more about how things are accounted for, which it shouldn't be that way, but for simplicity sake, sometimes it ends up being that way. So just wanted to quickly kind of explain what's going to happen with that, but we'll talk more about that. Of course, next earnings around.
CFO开场白。我觉得这里没有听到什么新鲜事，除了这个税率之外可能是新的。所以现在通过承认或释放这个季度的递延税，我们在公布财报时讨论过，看起来所得税率将会急剧增加。所以他们提到可能从过去的10%上升到25%左右。我可以快速地查一下。我可能还有我的盈利报告上的信息。所以我要检查一下，这可能需要10秒钟。好的，过去的所得税情况，让我看看。大约每个季度大约是2亿，所以这可能会翻倍，甚至超过翻倍。如果是这样，每个季度所得税拨备可能会达到4，5亿美元左右。这将会对净收入之前的经营利润产生一些影响。所以这将会减少底线的每股收益，但不会影响经营利润率。所以显然人们将如何解读这一点将会很有趣。正如你所说，现金没有变化，但有时候人们会更关心事物是如何被计账的，虽然不应该这样，但基于简单起见有时候事情就变成这样。所以我只是想简单解释一下会发生什么，但我们会在下一次财报中做更多的讨论。
Autogross margin, improving sequentially with cost of goods sold decline. They talked about this in their earnings deck in the outlook section. I think they mentioned it in the opening comments here. We got a few questions about it. Really what they're saying is, hey, we've made this progress as we've talked about some of the progress this year has been driven by a reduction in inflationary impacts that were present for the basis, you know, the prior year's basis. So, or prior quarters. So with those things becoming more normalized, those opportunities for cost reductions diminish. And then you have to rely on other areas for cost reductions, right, which Drew mentioned a couple of them from a design perspective. They're looking at, you know, eight figures, so tens of millions of dollars worth of cost reductions. Is that super significant? It's not on Tesla's cost basis. I mean, last quarter, I don't have this quarter up to the other, but I mean, last quarter total. So, I think the other two categories were $16 billion, right? So, if I understood Drew correctly, if you're talking, and if I'm thinking about eight figures correctly, that's 10 million. Right. So, somewhere between, you know, 10 and 100 million dollars isn't too impactful on that. He didn't say that that was exclusively the only cost savings that were out there. He was talking just about design. So, you know, we shouldn't be expecting these quarterly cost reductions that we've been seeing to continue, at least on the current generation of vehicles, right? Once they get the next generation vehicles going, then obviously that's going to change the situation significantly. But for the time being, we just need to level set that, you know, this is kind of where things are with this platform at this point in time.
毛利率在库存成本下降的同时逐步改善。他们在展望部分的财报中提到了这一点。我记得他们在开场评论中也提到了这一点。我们有几个关于这方面的问题。他们实际上是在说，嘿，我们实现了这一进展，正如我们所说，今年的一些进展是由于通胀影响的减少所推动的，而这些影响是基于前一年度或前几个季度的。因此，随着这些因素趋于正常化，降低成本的机会就减少了。然后，你必须依靠其他领域来降低成本，对吧，Drew提到了设计方面的一些领域。他们正在寻求数千万美元的成本降低。这在特斯拉的成本基础上是否非常重要呢？我是说，上个季度，我没有这个季度的数据，但是上个季度总计是160亿美元，对吧？所以，如果我正确地理解了Drew的话，如果他说的是八位数，那就是1000万美元。也就是说，在这个基础上，10到100亿美元的区间对它来说并不太有影响。他并没有说那是唯一的成本节约措施，他只是谈到了设计方面。因此，我们不应该期望我们一直看到的季度成本降低会继续下去，至少在当前一代车型上不会。一旦他们推出下一代车型，情况显然会发生重大变化。但在当前，我们只需要明确，就是在目前这个平台上，事情的发展就是这样的。
So, Tesla said a few times, I've talked about it, you know, going back quite a while now that we're in between two periods of growth. And as I said earlier today, this is very normal in Tesla's history. There have been a lot of periods of time like this. You can go back to find years, I don't know, maybe 2014, 2015 or something like that, where growth was like 20%. Right. So, that's around where we were at this year for revenue, if I recall correctly. It's not unprecedented and then next generation comes and the growth, you know, happens again. So, important to keep that in mind. And that's relevant for all parts of Tesla's business.
所以，特斯拉多次说过，我已经谈论过这个问题了，你知道，我们已经在两个增长阶段之间了。就像我今天早些时候说的，这在特斯拉的历史上非常正常。过去有很多这样的时期。你可以回顾一下，可能是2014年、2015年之类的年份，增长率达到了20%左右。对的。所以，今年的营收就在这个水平上，如果我没记错的话。这并不是前所未有的，接下来会出现下一个增长阶段。所以，要记住这一点很重要。这适用于特斯拉业务的各个方面。
Automotive costs, revenues, everything. Deliveries. They emphasize that they do fully appreciate the importance of customer acquisition. 90% of new customers this year. I think I got that number right. Had not owned a Tesla before. So, which makes sense as you're obviously growing, you're going to have more new customers. It's, they later, I guess we'll wait until we talk about the other comments, but they did talk a little bit more about advertising too. But they said they'll be thoughtful about customer acquisition strategies. Leasing, energy storage or something. Yeah. So, all this stuff is pretty intuitive.
汽车成本、收入，一切。交付。他们强调他们充分认识到客户获取的重要性。今年90%的新客户。我想我没有记错这个数字。以你们显然正在发展壮大为前提，拥有更多的新客户是合理的。嗯，稍后再讨论其他评论吧，但他们也稍微谈到了广告。但他们表示将在客户获取策略上谨慎行事。租赁、能源储存之类的。嗯，所以，所有这些都很直观。
CapEx in excess of $10 billion. I can't remember what the last 10 Q said. I think it was maybe a range of eight to 10. So, that might actually be a small increase in CapEx guidance, but I'd have to go back and double check on that, which we can do once we, well, we'll see you in the 10 K. So, next gen timeline based on moving to Texas to that accelerated all.
CAPEX超过100亿美元。我记不得上一个季度财报说了什么。我想可能是在8到10之间的范围。所以，这实际上可能是对CAPEX指引的小幅增加，但我得回去再核实一下，我们在10-K中会做这个。所以，下一代时间表是基于搬迁到德克萨斯州并加速一切。
Interesting. I think this was the top question. I didn't really expect an answer for me on this because he talked about how this isn't, you know, product call and I think Tesla would be well served to. Try to keep this on the, you know, not that it can really be on the down though, but try to not talk too much about it until it's ready. But Elon did say that although he's often optimistic current schedule will start production towards the end of 2025. So, we had the Reuters report, which we talked about earlier today. That's, I think it was June or July 2025 was kind of the supplier indicated rumor. So, that seems to fit with what Elon is saying here. Basically, he's saying the second half of 2025. So, obviously, it's going to be a lot of work, a lot of new technology we've seen with the Cybertruck, although there were extenuating circumstances, of course, there that can cause delays when anything like that happens. Certainly with the Model 3 ramp up, there was a lot of, you know, new technology being used there. So, you know, keep expectations with that in mind, but it's exciting to hear them, you know, talking about it in more real terms with specific dates and things like that. And although it still seems a little bit far away, I mean, that's, what is that, 18 months from now? It's really not too far off. So, you know, I was going to say it's not too long since we felt that way about Cybertruck. It's been about 18 months, you know, but we were in that period of time with Cybertruck for quite a long time now. And, you know, now it's here and soon enough, the next generation vehicle platform will be as well.
有趣。我认为这是最关键的问题。我其实并没有期待会有人回答我，因为他说这不是产品介绍，我认为特斯拉会受益于对这个问题保持谨慎。但是埃隆说过，尽管他通常很乐观，但计划将于2025年底开始生产。所以，我们有路透社的报道，我们今天早些时候也谈论过。我想是2025年6月或7月左右供应商暗示的谣言。所以，这似乎与埃隆在这里说的相符。基本上，他在说的是2025年的下半年。所以，显然，这将是一项艰巨的任务，会有很多新技术。我们在Cybertruck上已经看到了一些，尽管当然也存在一些特殊情况，可能会导致延迟。当Model 3量产时，也有很多新技术被使用。所以，考虑到这些情况，请保持适度的期望，但听到他们以更具体的日期等方式谈论这个项目仍然令人兴奋。虽然它似乎还有点遥远，但那是什么呢，18个月后吗？其实并不远。我要说的是，我们对Cybertruck也有相同的感觉，但已经过去了大约18个月了，你知道，我们已经相当长时间处于那个时期。所以，现在它已经到来了，下一代车辆平台也会很快到来。
Explained about the decision in Austin, so I think we've talked about those things. So, I think it's a lot of time to talk about the decision in Austin, and I think we've talked about it a lot of times. Um, tough to predict the S curve. So that was kind of those comments on the next generation vehicle. For 4680s, I was glad how drew, or as happy to see how drew addressed the reporting on Cybertruck being constrained by 4680s, which was nonsense at the time, as we had talked about. And then the other things limiting Cybertruck production at the very beginning of this stage. So there are weeks of inventory on hand of 4680s ready to go into the Cybertruck. Now, as Cybertruck ramps very quickly, that ramp could happen faster than 4680s, which then maybe you get a new supply constraint and a quarter, two quarters or three quarters, whatever the case may be. Hopefully, no ramp and cohesion and 4680s won't be the delaying factor. But of course, you know, just something to monitor as we move forward, not at the current moment.
在奥斯汀解释了这个决定，所以我认为我们已经谈论了这些事情。所以，我认为现在是讨论奥斯汀决定的好时机，我想我们已经谈论过很多次了。呃，很难预测S型曲线。所以这是关于下一代车辆的评论。关于4680电池，我很高兴Drew强调了有关Cybertruck受到4680电池限制的报道，那时候这是胡说八道，我们已经谈论过了。然后其他因素在Cybertruck生产的初期限制了生产。所以我们现在手头上有几周的4680电池库存，可以用于Cybertruck。现在，随着Cybertruck的快速推广，可能比4680电池更快，这可能会导致新的供应限制，可能是一个季度、两个季度或三个季度。希望不会有推广和较好的4680电池成为推迟的因素。但当然，作为我们前进的监控对象，目前还没有出现这种情况。
Um, he always kind of reads through these 4680 updates quick, so I try to catch what I can, but he goes quick. So, Texas, they swapped one of the lines from model Y design to Cybertruck's, you know, Cybertruck's 4680 design. He mentioned the 10% energy density improvement before, which had previously been mentioned as a target. So him saying that, obviously, hopefully supports that they have accomplished that, which is good. Now, their focus is on ramping production, lowering costs, of course, after this has sort of been validated. So it's a good spot to be in. And hopefully one that they can progress from quickly.
嗯，他总是很快地浏览这些4680的更新，所以我尽力去抓住一些信息，但他速度很快。所以，德克萨斯州，他们将模型Y设计中的一条线路与Cybertruck的设计进行了交换，你知道，就是Cybertruck的4680设计。他之前曾提到过10%的能量密度改进，这之前一直被提及为目标。所以他这样说，显然支持他们已经实现了这一目标，这是好事。现在，他们的重点是加速生产，降低成本，当然，在验证过程之后。所以这是一个很好的处境，希望他们能快速前进。
Um, currently running one production line and one assembly line.
嗯，目前正在运行一条生产线和一条装配线。
It sounds like they're adding two assembly lines for rate and improvement purposes.
听起来他们为了提高生产速率和改进质量，正在增加两条组装线。
Or working on rate and improvement with those new assembly lines. And then another install later this year. So I think they'd be going from one to four, if I remember correctly, which I think matches what we had heard before.
然后还有今年稍晚时候的另一个装配线安装。所以我记得没错的话，他们将从一个装配线增加到四个，这和我们之前听到的消息相符。他们正在努力提高效率和改进这些新的装配线。
Some others have followed the 4680 line production specifically a little bit more closely. Um, 4680s in addition, other suppliers. Yeah.
还有其他一些人对4680生产线有了一些更加密切的跟进。嗯，还有其他供应商也会提供4680电池。是的。
So, uh, Elon talked about his compensation playing a little bit here. Not really trying for economic incentives. Personally, I don't mind if there are economic incentives tied into this. I think it's, you know, that's probably a positive if there are.
嗯，埃隆谈到了他的补偿方面的一点小情况。他并不是特别追求经济激励。就我个人而言，如果有经济激励与此相关，我并不介意。我想，你知道的，如果有这样的激励，可能是个积极因素。
Um, I think if there is a similar, what I liked about the last compensation plan is it's at really lofty targets. If those targets weren't achieved, then there's no compensation, right? That's a very high risk incentive plan. And people complain about it that it was achieved, which is stupid because if it weren't, Elon would have gotten nothing in addition to what he already had. So I don't have a problem with that if these targets are, are lofty targets. And if you set those lofty targets, that says to the whole organization that the number one person in the organization, Elon Musk, CEO, believes that those targets are achievable and is working to achieve those targets. That's pretty impactful for investors. That's impactful for employees, both current employees in terms of being motivated and believing that those things are possible and also for possible hiring purposes.
我认为，如果有类似的情况，我喜欢上一个补偿计划的原因是它设定了非常高的目标。如果没有达到这些目标，那就没有任何补偿，对吗？这是一个非常高风险的激励计划。有人抱怨这已经实现了，我觉得这很愚蠢，因为如果没有实现，埃隆除了已有的东西外什么都得不到。所以，如果这些目标是雄心勃勃的目标，我对此没有意见。如果你设定了这些雄心勃勃的目标，这就向整个组织传达了一个信息，即整个组织的第一人，埃隆·马斯克，首席执行官相信这些目标是可以实现的，并正在努力实现这些目标。这对投资者来说是非常有影响力的。对于现有员工来说，这对于激励和相信这些目标是可能实现的非常重要，对于可能的招聘目的也是如此。
Because people might sit here and say, I don't want to work for Tesla. It's a $700 billion company or maybe 600 now. I haven't looked, but, um, maybe at that size, there's limited upside, right? But if you are sitting there and you see an Elon Musk compensation package that says that this could be a couple trillion dollar company or, you know, three or four trillion dollar company someday, that might change your perception a little bit about what the future potential is. And maybe investors think that already, but it's important to make those things clear to employees too if that really is a belief that the company has.
因为有些人可能会坐在这里说，我不想为特斯拉工作。他是一个市值7000亿美元的公司，或者现在也许是6000亿。我没看过，但是也许在这个规模下，上涨的空间有限，对吧？但是如果你坐在那里，看到了一个埃隆·马斯克的薪酬方案，说这可能是一个价值几万亿美元，或者说将来可能会是一个价值三四万亿美元的公司，那也许会改变你对未来潜力的看法。也许投资者已经这么想了，但对员工来说，如果公司真的持有这种信念，把这些事情搞清楚也很重要。
So, and if there's some economic incentive for that, like does Elon Musk need more money? I mean, you can debate about that. I think he's going to put that money to you. So it's, you know, it's more about capital allocation than it is about like, oh, this person can now buy more stuff. It's really not that. So, I mean, we can talk more about that, but I think most people here probably understand what the situation would be. So I don't have any problem if there is an economic incentive tied to that too. Obviously, Elon already has a strong economic incentive from his ownership in Tesla, and that would increase significantly in value if those goals were achieved anyway. So there's a lot of things that would need to be discussed on how to structure it, but I think in general, there's a lot of reasons that it's something like that can make a lot of sense.
所以，如果有经济激励的话，比如埃隆·马斯克需要更多的钱，我觉得可以对这个进行讨论。我的意思是，他会把这笔钱投入到你们身上。所以，这更多是关于资本配置，而不仅仅是这个人能买更多东西。实际上并不是那么简单。所以，我们可以进一步讨论这个问题，但我认为大多数人应该都能理解这种情况。所以，如果有与此有经济激励相关的问题，我并不反对。显然，埃隆已经通过持有特斯拉股份拥有了强烈的经济激励，如果实现了这些目标，他的股份价值将大幅增加。所以，在如何构建这个激励计划方面还有很多需要讨论的事情，但总的来说，这样的情况有很多合理的理由。
And that's before we even talk about what Elon is really saying he wants it for, right? And that's, you know, control factor.
而且在我们还没有讨论马斯克真正想要它用于什么之前，这还没提到，对吧？这就是所谓的控制因素。
So, which, you know, it's obviously valid if you have the opinions that Elon has, his opinion on this also follows and makes sense with those other opinions.
所以，你知道的，如果你持有埃隆的观点，那么他在这个问题上的观点也是明显有效的，并与其他观点相符合并合理。
On a gross margin, X credit expectations, they didn't really say too much on that. You know, CFO started in with kind of a long comment. Elon basically said, you know, we don't know. A lot of, it'll depend on a lot of things. Obviously, it'll depend on things, Tesla can control, and also things that Tesla can't control, you know, anywhere along that spectrum.
从毛利率的角度来看，关于X的信贷预期，他们并没有说太多。你知道，首席财务官开始发表了一段很长的评论。埃隆基本上说，你知道，我们不知道。很多事情都会起到决定性作用。显然，这将取决于特斯拉可以控制的事情，也取决于特斯拉无法控制的事情，从很多可能性中选择。
Giganovetta, so recently broke out in the next phase. So good to see that. I wish they would have shared a little bit more detail on that one specifically started the long lead items in Mexico as they previously said, but want to wait until the platform is proven out, then replicate that in Mexico.
Giganovetta最近在下一个阶段爆发了。真高兴看到这个消息。我希望他们能多透露一点关于这个特定项目在墨西哥开始长期领先的细节，但他们想要等到验证平台成功后再在墨西哥复制该项目。
That probably suggests quite a long time from now for Mexico. So although we've seen a little bit of rumors, Samo Garcia keeps talking about how that's going to happen soon. I think we just need to kind of set that on the back burner. It's going to be a while. It's going to be maybe 2026. You know, if you're starting production in 2025 and you really want to prove that out, you probably prove that out in 2026, then you replicate the line. Maybe that takes into 2027.
这可能暗示着对于墨西哥来说还需要相当长的时间。虽然我们听到了一些谣言，萨莫·加西亚一直在谈论这将会很快发生。我认为我们只需要把它放在后炉子上。这需要一段时间。可能要到2026年。你知道，如果你在2025年开始生产并希望证明出来，你可能会在2026年证明出来，然后复制生产线。这可能要到2027年。
I know it feels like a long ways away, but that's potentially my interpretation of the comments today. So just kind of keep that in mind. And maybe that happens more quickly. Definitely could. But if that's the process, like, hey, we prove out this production line that's starting in 2025, that's going to take time and then you got to build a new one. So it's just all those things. If they happen in sequence, we'll take a while.
我知道它感觉像是很遥远的事情，但这可能是我对今天的评论的解释。所以请记住这一点。也许事情变得更快。肯定有可能。但如果这是个过程，比如，我们证明了从2025年开始的这条生产线，那将需要时间，然后你需要建设一个新的。所以这些事情如果按顺序发生，会需要一段时间。
FSD licensing. I think others should be asking. They've had some tentative conversations. We've heard that before. Elon has mentioned that. So that's not really anything new. But he doesn't think they believe it yet. Not surprising.
FSD许可证。我认为其他人应该去询问。他们已经进行了一些初步的对话。我们之前就听过了。埃隆提到过这一点。所以这并不是什么新鲜事。但他认为他们还不相信。这并不令人意外。
FSD at this point, it's, you know, it's, tussles got to prove it out. Otherwise, people are just going to continue to write it off. It's it's been a long time with a lot of missed targets in terms of when Elon expected things to be achieved. So, you know, another year, no one's going to take it seriously until it starts happening. Hopefully FSD v12 is a big step in that direction.
FSD目前来说，你知道的，它还需要努力来证明自己，否则人们就会继续对其不予看重。以埃隆预期实现的目标为辅，产品的完成已经耗费了很长时间，错过了许多目标。所以你懂的，在没有实质进展之前，再过一年，没有人会认真对待它。希望FSD v12能朝这个方向迈出重要的一步。
And then as tussles training, you know, gets both more time for training and more resources for training combination of those, plus, obviously, a lot more data from ever growing fleet. Hopefully all of these factors really start to materialize in terms of the progress and the rate of progress on FSD. And if that does happen in a way that is very apparent, right, it needs to be pretty clear that there's massive progress happening. Then you start to see some sentiment change, conversations change, things like that.
然后，随着训练的不断进行，您知道，训练时间变得更长，训练资源也更丰富，还有从不断增长的车队中获取的更多数据。希望所有这些因素能够真正体现在FSD（全自动驾驶系统）的进展和进展速度上。如果这些进展非常明显，确实有大规模的进展，那么您将开始看到一些情绪的改变，对话的改变等等。
I think that probably affects optimists too. But optimists timeline, I think Elon said, good chance shipping some number of units of optimists sometime next year. Not going to hold him to that. You know, this is a, as you said, it's revolutionary new product. A lot of a discontent on software capability. So, just like FSD can sometimes be difficult to predict, that's going to translate to optimists too. And hopefully, we see good things with FSD and, you know, if that stuff is good, then that also reflects well on optimists at the same time.
我认为这可能也会影响到乐观主义者。但是乐观主义者的时间安排，我想埃隆说过，明年有很大机会能够发货一些乐观主义者的单位。我不会对此过于执着。你知道，正如你所说，这是一个革命性的新产品。在软件能力方面存在许多不满意。所以，就像全自动驾驶有时很难预测一样，这也会影响到乐观主义者。希望我们能够在全自动驾驶方面看到好的结果，你知道，如果那些东西很好，那也会对乐观主义者产生积极的影响。
AI day, maybe at some points. Just mentioned competitive concerns with those. They've shared a lot because they're trying to appeal to, you know, engineers that love those engineering details and want to understand them. But to share, you know, to help them understand that, you have to help your competitors understand that. So, it kind of makes sense their perspective on that. I mean, I'm sure they've withheld things before, but maybe just a little bit more reticent these days.
AI日，可能在某些时候。只是提到了与竞争对手有关的担忧。他们分享了很多信息，因为他们试图吸引那些热爱工程细节并想要了解它们的工程师们。但是，要分享并帮助他们理解，你必须帮助你的竞争对手理解。所以，他们对此的看法在某种程度上是合理的。我的意思是，我相信他们以前可能曾保留过一些信息，但也许现在有点更加缄默。
Cyber trucks, I didn't really catch what they said on the comments. It sounded like they would convert orders into 2024. I mean, I don't know if they're trying to be optimistic from like a demand from a new order perspective to try to not discourage people from ordering. I guess I would kind of hope that they don't work through the whole backlog, which, you know, maybe a million plus orders, maybe a couple million orders. If they work through that in the first year, that's probably not a great sign for the conversion rate, although they did say that they're happy with the conversion rate.
我没有真正听清楚评论中说了什么，但似乎他们会把订单转移到2024年。我的意思是，我不知道他们是否试图从新订单的需求角度乐观，以试图不打消人们下订单的积极性。我希望他们不要处理完整个积压订单，也许有一百万以上的订单，也许有几百万个订单。如果他们在第一年就处理完这些订单，可能不是一个好的转化率的迹象，尽管他们说他们对转化率感到满意。
So the problem is that the first year of production, it's going to be lower, obviously, than the full volume production rate as they ramp, probably significantly. So once they do get there, though, 250,000 a year, so maybe more pretty much what you want to said before.
所以问题是，生产的第一年，显然会比全面产量率低一些，因为在逐步提高生产能力时，可能会有显著的差距。不过一旦达到那个水平，每年生产25万辆，可能会更多，基本上符合你之前想说的。
Energy volumes, they'll start adding that with production and deliveries. I think that's a good thing. It does also, though. It's a little silly because of the volatility that's. I almost don't. I want to know that information, right? But adding it to a quarterly release, it just kind of like emphasizes the. you know, that this is an important number to watch each quarter. I don't really think that's necessarily true for energy because of the volatility of it.
能源量，他们将通过生产和交付来开始添加这个。我认为这是一件好事。不过，这也是有点傻的，因为这种波动。我几乎不想要知道这些信息，对吗？但是将其添加到每季度发布的报告中，只是强调了这个。你知道，这是一个每个季度都要关注的重要数字。我不认为对能源来说这是必要的，因为它的波动性很大。
Like, do I feel like the energy business didn't do well in Q4 just because it dropped, you know, what, 15% quarter over quarter? No, not at all because I know it's just going to come back next quarter and they're ramping and things like that. But if you don't have that opinion, you open this earnings release with no context or, you know, this production and delivery release with no context and you see, oh, the Tesla energy storage fell, that business must not be doing well, right? So I get that the. you know, people want to see it, I get asking for it. I get Tesla providing it, but, you know, it's one of those things that it's like, you ask for it a bunch and then you get it and you're like, did I really want this? I don't know. Might as well just release it with earnings in my opinion, but that's fine.
在第四季度，能源业务的表现不佳，仅仅因为它下降了15%，但我觉得这并不是真的，因为我知道它下个季度会反弹，他们正在扩大业务等等。但如果你没有这样的观点，你看到了这个财报或者产品交付的报道时没有背景，你会认为特斯拉的能源储存业务不好，对吗？我理解人们想要看到这个数据，我也理解要求这些数据。我明白特斯拉提供这些数据，但是这是其中一种情况，你多次要求它，然后你得到它后问自己，我真的想要这个吗？我不知道。在我看来，最好是将其与财报一起发布，但这也可以接受。
It will be nice to have it, for sure. Okay, lay through up, of course, ramping up. All right, what are the preliminary results of ads? So, good question. Of course, they answered it saying ultimately it's an affordability issue, right? Which I kind of had to chuckle because later Elon said something about something else with Tesla being a perception issue. I think it was around AI day where they were using AI day to kind of change the perception around Tesla.
毫无疑问，拥有它会很好。好吧，继续说下去，当然，逐渐提高。好的，广告的初步结果如何？所以，好问题。当然，他们回答说最终这是一个负担能力的问题，对吧？这让我有点笑了，因为后来埃隆说了一些关于特斯拉的其他问题，说特斯拉面临的是一种观念问题。我记得是在AI日前后，他们利用AI日来改变人们对特斯拉的看法。
It's like, well, there are other ways to change perception around Tesla, too. In other categories of the business, advertising, obviously being what I'm alluding to there, but. So, it just, that kind of struck me as funny, but anyway, emphasizing ultimately it's an affordability issue, it sounds like, you know, they're a little bit reluctantly doing this at this point based on their commentary.
就像，嗯，还有其他方式可以改变人们对特斯拉的看法。在企业的其他类别中，广告显然是我在暗示的，但是。所以，这种情况让我觉得很有趣，但无论如何，强调最终这是一个经济实惠的问题，听起来，你知道，他们现在有点勉强地这样做，根据他们的评论。
Obviously, it's good that they're doing it. I wish there was a little bit more enthusiasm for what could be accomplished here. I think Tesla right now is viewing it as like, man, this is not a first principles thing. This is, you know, ultimately it's kind of stupid, right? Like, marketing as a whole. And I was a marketing major, partially, like, a couple majors, but one of my majors was marketing. So, I feel like I can trash talk it. It's all kind of stupid, right? It's really ultimately like you're paying money to influence someone's decision making or their perception or what they think about something.
显然，他们这样做是好事。我希望能对于在这里可以取得的成就有更多的热情。我认为特斯拉现在认为这不是一个首要原则的事情。这是说，市场营销对他们来说有点愚蠢，对吧？就像整个市场营销界一样。而我以前是学市场营销的，其中一个专业就是市场营销。所以，我觉得我有资格对它进行说说。总的来说，它们都有点愚蠢，对吧？实际上，你其实只是花钱来影响别人的决策，或者他们对某件事的看法或想法。
You know, at best case, it's like you're paying money to tell someone that something exists that they didn't know about. And that kind of makes sense. But if they know about it, then really what you're paying to do is try to sort of frame it not favorably, like manipulate their perception. You can have good intentions to do that. But ultimately, that's kind of what the goal is, right? Like, I want to change how somebody thinks about this. And you can have really good reasons to do those things. But that's, I think that's kind of how like Tesla views it as a first principles perspective is. That's what marketing and advertising really is.
你知道，在最好的情况下，就像你在花钱告诉别人某件他们不知道的事情的存在。这种做法有一定道理。但如果他们已经知道了，那你花钱的目的实际上是试图以一种不利的方式来塑造它，就像是操纵他们的认知。你可能有良好的意图去做这些事情。但归根结底，这就是目标，对吧？比如，我想改变某人对这个事情的思考方式。你可能有很好的理由去做这些事情。但我认为这也是特斯拉以第一原理的视角看待市场营销和广告的方式。
Now, that ignores all the good things about advertising of like, okay, if someone has the wrong perception, should we really be mad about paying someone to help change the perception to something that is correct? If that is the only way to do so in a reasonably quick period of time? I don't know. I mean, we've talked plenty about this. We don't need to get into advertising conversation again. But it just, it seems like there's pretty obviously validity to that in certain circumstances. And it circumstance that Tesla is probably in in some ways, in some regions as you want to comment it on.
现在，这忽略了广告的所有好处，比如，如果某人有错误的认知，我们真的应该为了支付某人帮助改变认知而感到生气吗？如果这是在相对短时间内的唯一方法，我们应该怎么办？我不知道。我的意思是，我们已经对这个问题讨论了很多次了。我们不需要再谈论广告了。但是，在某些情况下，显然有一定的合理性。而且在某种程度上，特斯拉可能就是这种情况，在某些地区，你想对此发表评论吗？
There are certain markets where they feel like they're under penetrated in terms of the market share and probably worth spending a little bit more time on awareness and things like that in those markets, which I think is, you know, very logical, makes sense. But maybe all of Tesla is like that, right? Like maybe the current levels of market share are all under where they should be. And there's not really a good way of knowing that until you start trying it. So I'm glad they're starting to try it, but I wish they were really trying it, you know? And hopefully they are. And hopefully it's more of just like them trying to communicate their point of view to someone that maybe disagrees with them. So they're highlighting the things that are sort of pushed back on those types of things, if that kind of makes sense.
在某些市场中，他们觉得自己在市场份额方面的渗透率不够，并且可能值得在这些市场上多花一点时间来提高知名度等方面，我觉得这是非常合理的，有道理的。但也许特斯拉整个公司都是如此，对吗？也许目前的市场份额都未达到应有的水平。除非开始尝试，否则很难真正知道。所以我很高兴他们开始尝试，但我希望他们真的努力去尝试，你知道吗？希望他们确实如此，并且希望这更像是他们试图向持不同意见的人传达他们的观点，所以他们突出强调那些受到反对的事情，如果这样说得通的话。
Like they're taking the one side of the arguments while still understanding the total arguments. Hopefully that's the case. And I think that probably is the case. And I do think, you know, kind of starting slow, seeing what the return is, things like that all makes sense as we have talked about before. But at the same time, I just hope that there is really a real effort to do it to do it well, to do it as best they can, like anything else. If they're going to do it, I want them to do it like Tesla would anything else, right? I want them to do it well. So hopefully that's also their perspective on things with ads. Not exactly my take on what their perception is from their comments on the call, but obviously, you know, those things can be misinterpreted.
就像他们站在争论的一边，同时还能理解整体的争论。希望能是这样。我想这可能是真的。我也认为，你知道的，一开始慢慢来，看看回报，诸如此类的事情都是有道理的，我们之前也谈过。但同时，我只希望他们真的会努力去做好，尽力去做得最好，就像做任何其他事情一样。如果他们要做，我希望他们像特斯拉做其他任何事情那样，做得好。所以希望这也是他们对广告事务持有的看法。这并不完全符合我对他们在通话中的言论观点，但显然，你知道的，这些事情可能被误解。
All right, we've talked plenty about that. Annal's questions. Pierre, I think asked about Cog's. We've talked about that. I just, I don't think they were willing to share too much more other than, you know, they're kind of coming to the tail end of it. As I mentioned, after the earnings report, there are still things in their cyber truck 46 80s. Those are negative impacts on Cogs right now. And as they ramp up, they'll be less negative and hopefully in the future, positive impacts. And that can shift things for the total.
好的，我们已经谈了很多关于那个的事情。Annal提出了一些问题，Pierre问了一些关于Cog的问题。我们已经讨论过那个了。我只是觉得他们不愿意分享太多信息，除了他们即将接近尾声。我提到过，在业绩报告之后，他们的Cyber Truck 46 80S还存在一些负面影响。随着他们的逐渐增加，这些负面影响将会减少，希望在未来会有正面影响。这将对整体产生转变。
How that relates to the overall scale of overall cost of goods sold, as I mentioned, you know, whatever, $16 billion. It's a big base. So how significant are those things in terms of contributions to the average? I'm not sure, but they are factors. So hopefully they are factors that are positive in the future.
如我之前提到的，这与总成本规模的关系如何呢？总成本售价大约为160亿美元。这是一个庞大的基数。所以这些因素对平均值的贡献有多重要呢？我不确定，但它们是影响因素。希望它们在未来能起到积极的作用。
Drew mentioned things like design. They mentioned things like economies of scale, renegotiating with suppliers. Normal normal cost control things that they're going to they, of course, spend doing and of course are going to continue to do long term. And that obviously test was phenomenal at those things.
德鲁提到了设计这样的事情。他们提到了规模经济、与供应商重新谈判等方面的事情。这些都是他们当然会进行并长期继续做的常规成本控制措施。而且显然，这些方面的测试结果非常出色。
Total dressable market. They were honest. They said, you know, they don't don't really have a strong idea of what that would be. I think the market's bigger than what's being sold right now, right? But I don't think that like we've talked about before, I don't think that it moves the needle a whole ton, like whether you're selling 2 million model 3 and model y a year or 2 and a half or 3 million. Obviously those are pretty big differences in terms of percent differences. But in terms of how Tesla is priced and the valuation and future cash flows and all those sort of things. I don't know if that is all that material, right?
总可实施市场。他们很诚实。他们说，你知道，他们对这将会是什么样子没有明确的想法。我认为市场规模要比目前销售的要大，对吧？但我不认为，就像我们之前讨论过的那样，这会对整个局势产生很大的影响，不管你一年销售200万辆Model 3和Model Y，还是250万辆或300万辆。显然，这些都是相当大的百分比差异。但就特斯拉的定价、估值和未来现金流等方面来说，我不知道这是否真的那么重要，对吧？
Like I said before, it's FSD, next generation vehicle, optimists. These are the things that are more important to the future of Tesla and other things that will come, right? You want to talk before about how things that we're aware of are not the exhaustive list of what Tesla is working on. So Model 3 and Model y, it's kind of like, does anyone really care now about SNX a little bit? But we care more about Model 3 and Model y. And someday Model 3 and Model y will be in that category. Maybe not quite to the extreme in terms of the ratio, but, you know, we will look forward to when that is the case. I guess. Optimists.
就像我之前所说的那样，这是FSD的下一代车辆，乐观的人们。这些是对特斯拉和其他即将到来的事物未来更重要的事情，对吗？在此之前你想说的是，我们所知道的事情并不是特斯拉正在开展工作的详尽清单。所以Model 3和Model y，这有点像，现在还有谁真的关心SNX呢？但是我们更关心Model 3和Model y。而且总有一天，Model 3和Model y将进入这个范畴。也许比例并不是那么极端，但是，你知道的，我们期待着当那种情况发生的时候。我想是这样的。乐观主义者。
Yeah, so AI today we talked about Chinese OEMs. The game continues to give them credit. I think we've talked a lot about that and, you know, certainly not surprised to see those comments.
是的，今天我们谈到了中国的原始设备制造商。这个游戏一直在赞美他们。我认为我们已经对此谈论了很多，毫不意外地看到了这些评论。
Yeah, kind of a lot of conversation around just next generation vehicle and gating factors and it doesn't sound like there's anything like technologically gating is kind of my assessment of that conversation. It's more about they've got to build the manufacturing line, right? They need to design the equipment, test the equipment, build the equipment. You can't just go and buy it at a cucka store. You've got to, you know, design this equipment itself. So it takes time.
是的，关于下一代汽车和限制因素的讨论确实很多，但听起来并没有什么技术上的限制，这是我对这次讨论的评估。更多的是因为他们还需要建造生产线对吧？他们需要设计设备、测试设备、制造设备。你不能只是去某个商店购买，你需要自己设计这些设备。所以这需要时间。
Dojo. I would say more bearish on dojo. Ilana is saying similar words here to what he has said before, like dojo's kind of a long shot. High risk, how reward. But his tone was definitely, I think, slanted a little bit more towards the risk side of it than the potential side of it today. So, and we've seen, of course, some turnover on the team. They do say that they've got dojo training. So I don't know if it's a cost thing. I don't know if it's a performance thing in terms of how Tesla sees that falling in their own business, comparing to, you know, an alternative from Nvidia. But sounds like they're still working on it. Especially public facing when you're trying to recruit talent and things like that. I think you probably lean more towards just being positive and it didn't sound like you own comments were quite that way. So it definitely, you know, feels a little bit more like there's less, a little bit less optimism for dojo than maybe I've heard on previous calls. And obviously that can fluctuate over time, but that's kind of just, you know, my assessment of how it sounded, you know, tonality wise today.
关于道场（Dojo），我会说更为悲观一些。伊拉娜在这里说了与以前类似的话，比如说道场现在有点冒险，风险很高，回报也不确定。但他的语气明显更侧重于风险而非潜力方面。所以，我们当然看到团队发生了一些变动。他们说他们正在进行道场的培训。所以我不知道是成本的问题，还是特斯拉认为与英伟达的替代品相比，在自己的业务中道场的表现有问题。但听起来他们仍在努力。特别是在公开招募人才等方面，我认为你可能更倾向于积极一些，而你的评论似乎并没有那么积极。所以，相比之下，道场似乎少了一些乐观情绪，可能比我在之前的通话中听到的要少一点。当然，这种情况会随着时间变化，但这只是我对今天听起来的音调的评估。
In France and the Carus, we talked a bit about that. Hardware 3 to hardware 4 to hardware 5. And Elon's talked about hardware 5 before, which I was a little bit surprised by, but it does seem like they're kind of going to that next iteration pretty soon. And clearly they have in mind like what these things can be used for when the vehicle is idle because I'm sure they're sitting there right now and they're looking at this and they're like, man, we have all these hardware 3 cars out there that are just sitting there 95% of the time or whatever it is, something like that. Can we use that massive amount of compute for something? And with that old hardware, the answer is probably no or not much or not worth it. But when you're talking about your next generation design, even if you have a robot taxi that is only sitting idle, you know, 40% of the time, 50% of the time, whatever else depends on the market obviously.
在法国和卡鲁斯，我们对此进行了一些讨论。从硬件3到硬件4到硬件5。埃隆之前谈到了硬件5，这让我有点惊讶，但看起来他们很快就会进入下一代。显然，他们已经考虑过车辆闲置时可以用这些设备做什么，因为我相信他们现在正在思考这个问题，他们可能会想道，嘿，我们现在有这么多硬件3的车子，只有5%的时间甚至更短，我们能不能利用这么大的计算量做点什么呢？对于那些旧硬件来说，答案可能是否定的，或者说不多，不值。但是当你谈到下一代设计时，即使你拥有一辆只有40%或50%的空闲时间的机器人出租车，还要根据市场情况而定，无论如何，你都可以利用它们。
But if those vehicles are sitting idle there, and then what's, you know, what's going to be the situation where we can, or how can we design something like that? And then we can then be used during those idle periods for any purpose, anything that can provide some extra value. And I think it's a great way of thinking about it, and I'm glad the Tesla is thinking about it. And I'm sure there are a lot of interesting ideas that people have out there about what it could be used for. I'm sure people that like Bitcoin would definitely advocate for something like that, but it's definitely interesting. So we've talked about that, and come to ask, we talked about that, and it takes us to the end.
但是如果这些车辆闲置在那里，那么接下来会发生什么情况呢，你知道的，我们怎么能设计出这样的一种情况呢？然后我们可以利用这些闲置时间做任何事情，为任何事情提供额外价值。我认为这是一个很好的思考方式，我很高兴特斯拉在思考这个问题。我相信人们对它可以用来做什么有很多有趣的想法。我确信像比特币这样的人肯定会支持这样的想法，但这绝对是有趣的。所以我们谈到了这个问题，最后就让我们来谈谈这个问题。
All right, well, just checking the stock here. So I know we're down quite a bit. As I said, I actually think the call was fine, right? Like, I think there was quite a bit of optimism, and it felt like the whole team was very engaged. So I think I was pretty happy with the call. It's always hard to kind of differentiate between, you know, how did the stock react, and how do I actually feel about it? I think I feel pretty good about it. I don't think there was any, trying to think if there was any negative surprise here, you know, cost a good soul. I know there was a lot of discussion around that, but they told us that in earnings deck, so I don't think anything there should have been surprising. I mean, next generation vehicle is matching the timeline that had been rumored. I guess the Mexico timeline is a little bit later, but I don't think that's going to be anything that really is pretty impactful at the moment. You know, some negativity around Dojo maybe. But again, it's like, I don't think Dojo is really contributing to the stock price at the time at this moment, at least probably not very significantly. So, yeah, I don't know if there were many negatives in there, maybe just a lack of more positives. Like maybe people are just missing specific guidance for this year, like we talked about before.
好的，嗯，我只是检查一下库存。所以我知道我们的股价下跌了很多。就像我说的，我实际上认为电话会议很好，对吧？我觉得充满了乐观情绪，整个团队都非常投入。所以我对电话会议感到非常满意。很难区分股票的反应和我的实际感受，不过我觉得我对此感觉还不错。我不认为有任何意外情况。想想是否有什么负面消息，关于成本问题会有一些讨论，但他们在财报上已经告诉我们了，所以不应该有什么意外。我是说，下一代车辆的进度符合之前传闻的时间表。我猜墨西哥的时间表可能会晚一些，但我不认为这会对现在有太大的影响。可能有一些关于Dojo的负面新闻，但我觉得Dojo目前对股价的贡献应该不会很大，至少可能不会有很明显的影响。所以，嗯，我不知道是否有很多负面因素，也许只是缺少更多正面因素。就像我们之前讨论过的，也许人们只是错过了今年的具体指导。
Yeah, maybe just kind of the realization setting in of, you know, it's going to be a period of, as Tessel said, a period of time for Tessel between a couple of growth waves. I don't know why that wasn't the expectation before, if that's part of what's contributing here. I think it probably should have been, but that you know, certainly people deciding, hey, I'm just going to come back in 18 months, right? Like there's certainly people that could have that point of view. Now, maybe that's the right point of view. But sometimes the market has a way of surprising you, and that can be good or bad. As many of us know. But there's a possibility of it being good too. I mean, I'm excited about FSD version 12. I'm excited about the training capacity that Tessel has in his Bring it Online and the significant increase in training capacity that Tessel is going to have here and how that will hopefully impact. So you've got the significant increase in training capacity at the same time as you fundamentally rewrote the architecture to be able to take better advantage of that training capacity, which even just the training capacity on its own would be a huge boost. And now you can actually leverage it even better than you could before. Those two things seem to go hand in hand extremely well.
是的，也许只是一种认识到的感觉，你知道，这将是一个时间段，正如Tessel所说的，在一些增长浪潮之间的一个时间段。我不知道为什么之前没有这样的期望，如果这是导致这种情况的原因之一的话。我认为可能应该有这个期望，但你知道，肯定有人决定，“嘿，我只会在18个月后回来，对吧？”肯定有人有这种观点。或许这是正确的观点。但有时市场会出乎你的意料，这可能是好事，也可能是坏事，我们中的许多人都知道这一点。但也有可能是好事。我的意思是，我对FSD 12版很兴奋。我对Tessel在他的Bring it Online中所拥有的培训能力以及Tessel在这方面显著提高的培训能力非常兴奋，希望这将对他产生积极影响。所以你拥有了显著提高的培训能力，同时还彻底改写了架构，以更好地利用这种培训能力，即使仅仅是培训能力本身也会带来巨大的提升。现在你甚至可以比以前更好地利用它。这两件事似乎非常契合。
And maybe it takes time for that to come to fruition, but I just think it's an exciting combination. So does that mean I just want to sit around, sit and wait around for 18 months for the next generation vehicle to start and not own the stock during that period? I mean, not just my own personal opinion, but no. So meaning I don't want to change. I do want to keep my position during that period, even if it is volatile.
也许这需要时间来实现，但我认为这是一个令人兴奋的结合。那么这是否意味着我只想坐等18个月后的下一代车辆发布，而在此期间不持有股票呢？我的意思不仅仅是个人观点，而是不。这意味着我不想改变。即使市场波动不稳定，我仍然希望在这段时间内保持我的持仓。
I mean, that's always been my perspective, right? Like I've held Tesla forever. So when you start trying to time and getting it out of things, I think there's risk to that that sometimes is hopefully acknowledged. All right. It's a little tough for me to see the super chats on this, but I do see a few of those. So thank you. Thank you for those. I'll try to look here if there's questions. I don't think I can add them on screen.
我的意思是，那一直以来都是我的观点，对吧？比如，我一直持有特斯拉的股份。因此，当你开始尝试时间操作和卖出股票时，我认为这会带来风险，希望大家能够认识到这一点。好的，很遗憾我有点难以查看聊天中的超级聊天信息，但我确实看到了其中一些。谢谢你们的支持，非常感谢。如果有问题，我会尽力查看并回答。我不认为我能在屏幕上显示出来。
Feeding value back to the owner on the hardware is important. If you're on starts mining Bitcoin on my car with my power bill, I'm turning the car off every time I park it. Yeah. So I would assume obviously Tesla's not going to start stealing your electricity, right? Like everyone would just turn it off and no one would like that. So that I don't anticipate a scenario like that. More likely it would be Tesla offering a capability and letting the owner benefit.
回馈硬件价值给所有者非常重要。如果你在我的汽车上使用我的电费开始挖掘比特币，每次我停车都会关闭汽车。是的。所以我可以假设特斯拉显然不会窃取你的电力，对吗？因为每个人都会关闭它，没有人会喜欢那样。所以我不预见会发生这样的情况。更可能的是特斯拉提供一项功能，让所有者受益。
Right. Just exactly like a virtual power plant would with a power wall. Like yes, Tesla gets probably some benefit from operating the virtual power plant as does the actual person with the power wall that has the hardware. It's mutually beneficial. And that's what Tesla's going to look for. They're not going to look for something that is extracting value from a customer at their cost. It's just not not a good business model and would be very short lived. So I wouldn't worry about that.
没错。就像一个虚拟电站和一个电池储能系统一样。就像是，是的，特斯拉可能会从虚拟电站的运营中得到一些好处，与之相对的，安装硬件的实际用户也会从电池储能系统中受益。这是互利的。而且这正是特斯拉寻求的。他们不会去寻找将价值从客户那里提取的做法，因为这不是一个好的商业模式，也不会长久存在。所以我不会为此担心。
Let's see. A lot of folks who want to clean your car are under the impression. Teslas are poorly made fix that. Yeah, that's a tough one. I do agree that there's a lot of misinformation out there about that for, I don't know, whatever reason, maybe just like early days manufacturing issues that have persisted in terms of perception. I don't know how you tell people like, hey, our cars are better made than you think they are. It's kind of a difficult one to market around. I'm sure there's a solution. But if you go out there and you say like, hey, we don't actually have paid all gaps or something like that. It just kind of like it doesn't create that perception that you maybe would hope. So that's a tricky one. But yeah, I mean, obviously there are things, you know, other facets that could also be improved on the market. I'm proved on in terms of the perception out there.
我们来看看。很多人想要清洁你的车都有这样的印象，特斯拉的制造质量不好。是的，这是个棘手的问题。我同意关于这个问题有很多错误信息，原因可能是早期的制造问题在人们的认知中仍然存在。我不知道怎么告诉人们，嘿，我们的车比你们想象的要好。这是一个难以在市场上推广的问题。我相信一定有解决方法。但是如果你说，嘿，我们实际上并没有支付所有的缺陷费用之类的话，可能就不会产生你希望的那种认知。所以这是一个棘手的问题。但是，显然市场上还有其他方面需要改进和提高认知度。
Okay. I think I got to those super track questions. Alright, John is saying Microsoft and Meta are estimated to be buying 150,000 H100 GPUs, Tesla's ample cash in a training bottleneck for FSD progress, low expectations for Dojo and only 10,000 H100 orders. Why not buying more? I don't think that we know. I don't think that we know specifically Tesla's entire order book with Nvidia. I'd have to go back because I think the H100, the 10,000 H100 is if I remember correctly. That's what Tesla just ordered and was taken delivery of. Again, if I remember correctly and have turned on now, so that doesn't mean that that's their entire order book, right? Like I would assume that there are others. So, you know, I don't know if it would be to the level that Microsoft and Meta are using, obviously, but Tesla's looking at this. They're looking at what they have with Dojo. They're looking at what they might need in terms of training. They're looking at what they need to process from the fleet, how they can utilize that. Like this is all stuff that Tesla's really great at. I'm not worried about how Tesla chooses to spend their capital. They're going to do so extremely efficiently. And they're going to, I think, do so effectively as well. So, yeah, this to me seems like right in Tesla's wheelhouse to manage perfectly. So, I don't personally have too many concerns about that. And Tesla's got a big CapEx budget. They're clearly happy with, you know, dedicating a lot of that into artificial intelligence. Elon is very aware of what's happening in the space and obviously leading a big part of that. So, Eric, thank you.
好的。我想我了解了那些超级跟踪问题。好的，约翰说微软和Meta估计将购买15万个H100 GPU，特斯拉有充足的现金但在全自动驾驶进展中存在训练瓶颈，对Dojo的期望不高，只有1万个H100订单。为什么不购买更多呢？我不认为我们知道。我不认为我们具体知道特斯拉与英伟达的整个订单簿。我得回头看看，因为我记得H100只有1万个，这就是特斯拉刚刚订购并交付的数量。再次强调，如果我没记错，并且现在已经打开，所以这并不意味着那是他们的整个订单簿，对吧？我认为会有其他的吧。所以，你知道的，我不知道它是否达到微软和Meta所使用的那个级别，但特斯拉正在考虑这个。他们正在研究Dojo的情况，他们正在评估训练所需的资源，他们正在考虑如何利用车队所采集到的数据。这些是特斯拉非常擅长的事情。我对特斯拉如何选择使用资金并不担心。他们会极其高效地做到这一点。我认为他们也会做得很有效。所以，对我来说，这似乎正好在特斯拉的能力范围内，他们可以完美地管理这个。所以，我个人并不太担心那个。特斯拉有很大的资本支出预算。他们显然很乐意将其中很多资金用于人工智能。埃里克，谢谢你。
Alright. I think we're going to wrap it up here, everybody. But again, make sure to check out the video of the earnings report if you missed that earlier.
好的，大家我们应该要结束了。但是如果你之前错过了财报视频的话，一定要去看一下。
And thanks for joining for the earnings call. It's always fun to do these things with people and obviously now get a chance to reconnect a little bit after the, you know, the closing of actual daily episodes. But nice to be back and talking with people.
感谢你参加财报电话会议。和大家一起进行这些活动总是很有趣的，显然现在有机会在实际日常节目结束后与大家重新联系一下。但很高兴能够回来和大家交流。
And obviously, as I said before, I'll continue that. Like I said before, though, I do need a bit of a break. So, I'm not sure exactly when like the next episode will be from this point. We're just going to, it's going to be a little bit ad hoc play by ear.
当然，正如我之前所说的，我会继续下去。就像我之前说过的那样，不过，我确实需要稍微休息一下。因此，我不确定从现在开始，下一集会是什么时候。我们只能随遇而安地按照实际情况进行。
I'm sure if there's major, major news, I'll hop on and get my thoughts at some point. But if not, certainly plan to do the next earnings call. I'm sure I'll probably have an episode before then, but just want to make sure people are aware that I would have plans to do that. If anything changes at night regard, definitely would let people know.
如果有重大新闻，我肯定会及时发布我的想法。但如果没有，我肯定会参加下一次的盈利电话会议。我肯定在那之前可能会有一次活动，但只是想确保人们知道我有计划这样做。如果有任何夜间方面的变化，我一定会告知大家。
Yeah. But it's been fun doing this today, getting back into talking Tesla. All right. So, that'll wrap it up for today. As always, thank you for listening. I guess make sure to subscribe. I actually lost a bunch of subscribers after that, which it's fine. No surprise, but it's like I said, I'll still be here. But that's okay.
是的。但今天做这个还是挺有趣的，重新开始聊特斯拉的感觉很不错。好了，今天就到这里。一如既往地感谢你们的聆听。我猜记得要订阅我的频道。实际上，那之后我失去了一些订阅者，不过没关系。并不意外，但就像我说过的，我还会在这里。但这没关系。
So, I guess make sure to subscribe and we'll see you next time. Thank you.
所以，我猜记得要订阅，我们下次再见。谢谢。