Sandy's 2024 Auto Industry Predictions (+ BIG Announcement!)
发布时间 2024-01-12 23:00:19 来源
摘要
Jordan interviews Sandy about his automotive industry predictions for 2024 - and makes a major announcement about what ...
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中英文字稿 
Hi everyone, welcome to another episode of Men Row Live. Here in the new year, I'm Jordan Roacho with Sandy Men Row. We had a lot happen in 2023, both in industry and at Men Row. And we just kind of wanted to start off the new year talking about some major topics, things that we had learned and seen in 2023. And moving into 2024, maybe talk about what we envision for the future, what we're seeing in the industry, and maybe make some predictions about what we might see from different OEMs and different industry attributes.
大家好，欢迎来到《Men Row Live》的另一期节目。今年新年，我是乔丹·洛奇，和桑迪·门罗一起。在2023年，我们在行业和门罗公司都发生了很多事情。我们希望开始新的一年，谈谈一些重大话题，谈谈我们在2023年学到和看到的一些事情。然后展望2024年，讨论一下我们对未来的设想，行业中的一些趋势，并且也许对不同的原始设备制造商和不同行业属性做一些预测。
So a few of the topics that we'll cover today are looking at the intense competition among global automakers. What EVs are massive right now, it's a major race to the finish line to see which OEM is going to be coming out on top. And 2024, I think, is going to be telling in that regard for sure.
所以，我们今天将涵盖的一些话题是关注全球汽车制造商之间的激烈竞争。目前大热的电动汽车是什么，这是一场冲刺到终点线的重大比赛，看看哪家原始设备制造商能取得最终的胜利。我认为，到2024年，情况肯定会变得清晰明了。
There's rising consumer expectations, right? So with the onset of autonomy, a lot of additional features, ADAS coming, you know, really to the forefront of design. Everyone's talking about new features, how to implement what the best practices are. There's going to be a lot coming this year in that regard.
消费者的期望在不断提升，对吧？所以随着自动驾驶的到来，还有很多额外的功能，以及先进驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）的出现，这些都成为设计的重要前沿。每个人都在谈论新功能，如何实现以及最佳实践是什么。在这方面，今年将会有很多新内容推出。
Regulations, you know, NHTSA is obviously ever-present and they're driving up the bar in terms of what's necessitated from OEMs and the way of design and hardware that a vehicle must be equipped with.
你知道的，NHTSA（美国国家公路交通安全管理局）显然是无处不在的，他们在要求原始设备制造商（OEM）在设计和硬件方面提高标准，并对车辆的配备要求做出规定。
And lastly, you know, another thing that's really pressurizing the market is Silicon Valley among, you know, other places to include other regions, especially China, for example. OEMs are coming out of the woodwork, right? And that's really pressurizing the automotive space specifically in the EV realm. And so we'll talk a little bit about these things in, you know, from Sandy's perspective, what your perspective is on those and kind of start the new year out with some predictions and thoughts.
最后，你知道，市场的另一个增加压力的因素是硅谷以及其他地区，尤其是中国。原始设备制造商（OEM）如雨后春笋般涌现，对于电动汽车领域来说，这真的给汽车行业带来了巨大的压力。因此，我们将从Sandy的角度谈谈这些事情，了解你对这些问题的看法，并在新的一年里对未来做一些预测和思考。
Well, I thought we were going to start about what happened in 2023 first, but we can do whatever you want. You're the guy in charge now. So my predictions and thoughts, I think that 2024 is going to be a watershed year. Lots of the North American car companies have backed away from the EV world, you know, but basically because they're listening to what Wall Street has to say. But I think that there's going to be a shift, probably somewhere close to the election when people kind of understand who might get elected. And that'll probably be more of a determining factor than pretty much anything that makes any logical sense.
嗯，我以为我们首先会讨论发生在2023年的事情的，但我们可以按照你的意愿做。你现在是负责人了。所以，我的预测和想法是，我认为2024年将是一个具有重大意义的一年。许多北美汽车公司已经远离电动汽车行业，你知道的，基本上是因为他们在倾听华尔街的意见。但我认为会有一个转变，可能在选举接近时人们开始理解可能当选的候选人，并且这可能比任何具有逻辑意义的事情更具决定性。
So I'm going to say that some companies are going to do phenomenally well. One of them already made a big announcement. Ford, Jim Farley put out a note just recently saying, you know, the F-150 is still the number one truck and it's also the number one vehicle as far as sales is concerned. And I know a lot of people were thinking that the lightning was going to basically cannibalize some of that and it obviously did not. I see, and they also, I mean, there's a myriad of things that they've turned out to have the number one vehicle on. And I think that's because of good judgment on Jim Farley's part. He and his team just seem to have their finger on the pulse and you know what the automakers are going to want to buy and whatnot. I'm not 100% sure. I like the idea that the dealerships are telling Ford, no, I don't want to have an EV on my floor. No, I don't want to have, and I know why because EVs have no maintenance and that means their profitability is going to drop like a rock. I mean, there's no point to have a dealership if they can't do oil changes or fix your blown head gasket or something like that. These are things where they make the real money. They don't make any money on really selling new cars. Used cars, yes, not new cars. So at the end of the day, I think that we're going to see a lot of upside for at least Ford. And I'm also predicting that we're going to see some serious problems with places like Volkswagen and Germany in general.
所以我要说一些公司将会非常出色。其中一家公司已经发布了一项重大公告。福特汽车公司的吉姆·法利最近发表了一份声明，他表示，福特F-150仍然是最畅销的卡车，也是最畅销的车辆。我知道很多人曾认为，闪电电动车可能会拖累它的销量，但事实并非如此。此外，还有许多其他车型也成为了最畅销的车辆。我认为这是吉姆·法利明智决策的结果。他和他的团队似乎对汽车制造商的需求了如指掌。我不确定百分之百，我喜欢经销商告诉福特公司「不，我不想在展厅销售电动车」的想法。我知道这是因为电动车没有维修保养需求，这意味着经销商的盈利能力会急剧下降。如果他们不能提供换油或修理汽缸垫等服务，那么开设经销商就没有意义了。这些是他们赚钱的途径，并不是靠销售新车赚钱，而主要是依靠二手车。因此，最后，我认为至少福特公司将会有很大的增长空间。我还预测，像大众汽车这样的公司和德国整体将会遇到一些严重问题。
Yeah, it's interesting, Sandy. You talk about the lightning and its success and how Ford's handling that and how tuned in to the market, the customer base and how they've deployed their vehicle. Recently, you spent some time down in Texas at the Tesla event. You've got some first hand experience behind the wheel of the cyber truck. Speaking of being tuned in and competition coming in the year, maybe as it relates to the lightning. What were your thoughts getting behind the yoke, I should say, the cyber truck and sitting down with those five folks from Tesla, the five executives? I guess what are your kind of two or three takeaways, both from the drive and the experience in the cyber truck and then also with the conversation with the Tesla folks?
是的，Sandy，这很有趣。你谈到了闪电汽车的成功以及福特如何应对以及他们如何紧密关注市场和客户群，并如何推出他们的车辆。最近，你花了些时间在德克萨斯参加了特斯拉的活动。你亲自体验了赛博卡车的驾驶。说到紧密关注竞争的到来，也许与闪电汽车有关。当你在赛博卡车后座，和五个特斯拉高管坐下来交谈时，你有什么想法？我想知道你在驾驶赛博卡车和与特斯拉人交谈的过程中，有哪些两三个主要体会？
Well I think that when you drive that vehicle, it is a new driving experience. Because of the electric steering and because they can, you know, a very little bit of steering is all I need when I'm going fast.
我认为当你驾驶那辆车时，它会给你一种全新的驾驶体验。这是因为它配备了电动转向系统，并且你知道的，当我以高速行驶时，我只需要很小程度的转动方向盘。
And so the way they've got it calibrated, the steering system in a parking lot gives you the ability to basically spin the thing on a dime. I mean, that's figuratively. I'm telling you, it'll spin like as if you were driving a Prius or something. It turns really easily because even though I'm only going, I think it's like 320 or whatever, lock to lock, even though you're going a really small amount, the car compensates because it's got electric steering or sorry, steer by wire, you turn remarkably quick.
所以按照他们校准的方式，停车场里的转向系统让你能够基本上就像在一个硬币上旋转一样。我是说，这是象征性的说法。我告诉你，它会像你驾驶普锐斯一样旋转。它转动非常容易，因为即使我只转动了大概320度（或者其他什么），车子会进行补偿，因为它采用了电动转向，或者说是电子转向，你会很快速地转向。
And that comes from two things. You've got the electric steering, sorry, drive by wire in the front. You also have drive by wire in the back because it's got four wheel steering. So it turns really quick and it's fabulous to drive a big vehicle like that, like any other pickup truck, it's big and it just makes everything wonderful. So it sounds like Tesla, I mean kudos to them. It sounds like not only do they have the right hardware in the vehicle, but they took it a step further and they calibrated really well. They spent a lot of time and they really dialed in that tactile feedback and the customer experience.
这是由两个因素造成的。你有前部的电动转向，抱歉，我是指电子油门控制。你同时也有后部的电子油门控制，因为它配备了四轮转向。所以它转弯非常迅速，驾驶起来真是太棒了，就像其他任何皮卡一样，它很大，让一切都变得美妙。所以听起来像是特斯拉，我要向他们致敬。看起来他们不仅在车辆上拥有正确的硬件，而且他们更进一步地进行了校准。他们花了很多时间真正调整了触感反馈和顾客体验。
So as you move up in speed, the characteristics of steering changes. Now when you first get in it, it takes a bit because I'm expecting that I'm going to need a huge sweep to get into a parking spot. And you find out, whoa, I'm staring right at this guy's rear bumper. So you have to take a few things into account when you first get into the vehicle, but it does not take long to acclimatize yourself, your body, your eye hand coordination, all that stuff comes really, really quite quickly. And this is where the yoke really shines.
随着速度的增加，转向的特性也发生了变化。当你第一次上车时，会需要一点时间，因为我预计我需要进行大幅度的转弯才能进入停车位。但你会发现，哇，我正在盯着这个人的后保险杠。所以当你第一次上车时，你必须考虑几件事情，但你很快就会适应，你的身体、你的眼手协调能力等等都会非常快地适应。这就是方向盘的优点所在。
A lot of people used to complain about the model S plaid especially, you know, oh man, this doesn't really work. I think the next thing that Tesla should do is put, if they can, put the drive by wire into the model three.
很多人过去抱怨特斯拉S Plaid车型，尤其是说，哦天哪，它真的不太有效。我认为特斯拉下一步应该做的是，如果可能的话，将电子驱动系统引入到Model 3车型中。
Sure. Yeah, I mean as we talk about competition and we'll get into cost a little bit further down the list here, but you know it's one of the things that's when we're looking at ways to take out costs, steer by wires, definitely one of those. And weight. And weight, absolutely. And actually there's a whole bunch of features and functions that you get by steer by wire, with steer by wire, that people don't take into account when they're making it determination.
当我们谈论竞争并将继续讨论成本时，我是说在我们寻找降低成本的方法时，电动方向盘肯定是其中之一。而且，重量也是一个重要问题。实际上，通过电动方向盘，你获得许多功能和特点，而当人们做出决策时，他们并没有考虑到这些。
So when you start fooling, as you know, when you start fooling around developing a new product, there's always somebody that's going to say, well, how much is that going to cost? How much is that going to cost? But they don't usually look at the cause and effect that some of these things happen.
在你开始研发新产品时，通常总会有人问，那会花费多少钱呢？然而，他们往往并不会考虑到这些事情导致的因果关系。
So you've got steer by wire, which means that basically I'm going to take the whole steering gear and all the other mock that goes along with that. A big long shushkabab pole that comes from the front of your car, right pointing at your heart.
所以你们拥有了电动转向系统，这意味着基本上我将会取出整个转向装置以及与其相关的其他模拟部件。一个长长的串肉烤棍从你的汽车前方伸出，指向你的心脏。
So I'm a big fan of, have been a big fan of getting rid of mechanical steering for a long time. Because we work on aircraft. The F-18 doesn't have anything like that. The F-35 doesn't have it. None of the commercial, big commercial airplanes, they almost steer by wire, why is it we can do it on a huge plane, but we can't do it on a small car? And mostly it's because people were afraid of the cost, but they didn't take into account everything that goes along with it.
所以，很长一段时间以来，我一直是一个摒弃机械方向盘的忠实粉丝。因为我们从事飞机工作。F-18没有这种东西。F-35也没有。商用大型飞机也都几乎采用了电子传导操纵系统，那么为什么我们无法在小汽车上实现呢？主要原因是人们担心成本问题，但他们没有考虑到与此相关的一切。
So the weight goes down. When weight goes down, that means efficiency is going to go up. It means that you're going to go further. The electronics are going to move faster and more reliably than what you're going to have with a normal vehicle. And it basically allows me now to have an AI kind of driving experience. If something comes along, some people have very, very, I have very quick reflexes. For an old guy, we had a little thing going on here and somebody bumped a cup off the edge of a table and I caught it before it hit the ground. That's the exception. It's not the rule. My age shouldn't be able to catch that. But it just happens. Some people are lucky, but most people are not. And having steer by wire means that as the sensors pick up the potential for an accident that's going to happen, instead of having time to only scream, your car could steer itself out of the way. And this is where I see the biggest opportunity.
所以重量减轻了。当重量降低时，意味着效率会提高。这意味着你可以走得更远。电子设备的移动速度和可靠性将比常规车辆更快。它基本上允许我现在拥有一种人工智能驾驶体验。如果有什么事情发生，有些人反应非常快。对于一个老人来说，我们在这里有一个小事情，有人把杯子撞到桌边，我在它撞到地面之前就接住了。这是个例外，不是规律。我这个年纪不应该能接住。但这只是偶尔发生。有些人很幸运，但大多数人没有那么幸运。通过电控转向，意味着当传感器察觉到即将发生的事故时，你的车可以自行转向避开。这就是我看到的最大机会所在。
Yeah, absolutely. Well, it's good to hear that there's some positive remarks from the Cybertruck driving experience. You know, in the whole steer by wire, it seems like it was well executed based on your experience there. From the discussion that you had with the Tesla executives, what are some of your thoughts or takeaways from that conversation?
是的，完全正确。听到从Cybertruck驾驶体验中有一些积极的评价，确实令人高兴。关于整个“电线驱动”方面，根据您的经验，似乎执行得很好。从您与特斯拉高层的讨论中，有什么想法或者得到了哪些启示？
Well, the biggest thing for me was the leap of faith into 48 volts. Every engineer has known that 48 volts should be the way we do things probably forever. I mean, when I was at Ford, what's that, like 40 years ago, 45 years ago, we were talking. Why don't we go to 48? We wanted 42 volts. But why don't we go to something different? And it was always the same thing. Oh, not in the marketplace. Oh, that's good enough. And like I said, if you want to get ahead in a car company, all you got to do is say no. You'll be promoted because you'll never take a risk, never. And the people who say no or the people who get in the way of progress always get promoted.
对我来说，最重要的是对48伏特的信任。每个工程师都知道，48伏特可能一直是我们进行事物的方式。我是说，当我在福特工作时，大约是40年或45年前，我们就在讨论。为什么我们不转向48伏特呢？我们本来想要42伏特。但为什么我们不改变一些呢？而反复的理由总是一样。哦，市场上还没有需求。哦，那很好了。就像我说的，如果你想在一家汽车公司获得晋升，你只需要说不。因为你永远不会冒险，永远不会。而那些说不的人或那些阻碍进步的人总是会被提拔。
That's one of the reasons why, no matter which OEM you're at, except for Tesla, saying no is the fastest way to the top. So for me, I look at 48 volts as a giant enabler. And again, what do I get? I get a lot less weight. When I can decrease the wire diameter down to a quarter of its normal size, when I can get power distribution at much, much easier rates, I'm winding up with what? I get less weight. I get more or quicker. The higher losses are way better. Like nothing. I mean, all these things add up. And they say, well, there's no suppliers. Well, I can tell you right now, it's kind of like a lie. It's been out there for a long time. 48 volts is used in lots of different applications. It's just that they're not the same suppliers.
这就是为什么无论你在哪个汽车制造商，除了特斯拉，说不是最快通向顶峰的方法之一。所以对我来说，我认为48伏是一个巨大的推动因素。而且，我能得到什么？我可以减少导线直径到正常的四分之一，当我可以得到更容易的电力分配时，我得到了什么？我得到了更轻的重量。我得到了更多或更快。损失越高越好。几乎没有。我的意思是，所有这些都累积起来。他们说，嗯，没有供应商。嗯，我现在就告诉你，这有点像个谎言。48伏长期以来已经在很多不同的应用中使用。只是供应商不同罢了。
And I think Tesla executed at an intelligent time, meaning they didn't start out the gate with 48 volts. They waited until they had industry clout. They had enough firepower from a capital perspective and otherwise to go and deploy something like that. But the benefits of it are, you're refutable to your point. Well, and it enables one other thing. Or let me rephrase that. It just goes hand in hand with one other thing. And that's the ethernet system that they've got. So in the old days, we wanted to have something where we could reduce the amount of wire going into different parts of the car. And we invented this stuff, or it wasn't invented by Ford. It was kind of like universally known, but it was called multiplexing. And what you'd do is you'd have a couple of wires that would go to a small box, and that little box would run, would take the place of a big box somewhere else with long wires going to it. And that little box would then make your windows go up. The window regulator would go up and down. All kinds of different things could be done with multiplexing, but it was slow. So as soon as you push the button, it had to think about it, and then it would go up and down.
我认为特斯拉在明智的时机上进行了实施，这意味着他们并没有从一开始就使用48伏特的电压。他们等到了在行业中有影响力的时候。他们从资金和其他方面都有足够的实力来部署这样的东西。但它的好处是，你可以反驳你的观点。好吧，它还有一个好处。或者我重新说一下，它与另一个东西紧密相关。那就是他们拥有的以太网系统。所以在过去，我们想要有一种能够减少不同部分连接的电线数量的东西。我们发明了这个东西，或者确切地说不是由福特发明的。它在某种程度上是普遍知名的，但被称为multiplexing。你会把一些电线连接到一个小盒子上，这个小盒子会取代一个远离它的地方有长电线连接的大盒子。然后，这个小盒子会控制你的车窗升降，同时还可以进行各种不同的操作，但速度很慢。所以，一旦你按下按钮，它必须要思考一下，然后才会升降。
So with the new ethernet ring that Tesla's got, I mean, again, we're looking at giant reductions in the amount of cabling that I need. Now I need to get to the cable, to the ethernet cable, and I'm running very small communication wires. And then I've also got small wires because I'm at 48 volts, and all of a sudden now, what have I got? I got more weight savings. Weight savings is cost savings. Weight savings is range, on and on and on. It's just a smart way to go. But again, look at it in isolation. Oh, no, no, we can't do it. Can't do it. No, no, no, no. And some engineer or engineering manager, whatever wins. They get a promotion and a big bonus and a pat on the head. These kinds of things in isolation mean nothing but collectively. When you look at the 800 volt, we didn't talk about that, but going to 800 volts is a good deal as well. Because my cabling, again, gets smaller and on and on. But you've got 800 volts, 48 volts for the inside of the product, the car, the vehicle. And then you've got the ethernet ring. Shit. These things combined are, to me, Okay, I can shoot a machine gun at the side of the cyber truck. Well, that's Okay. Fine. I don't think I'm going to get into a situation like that, but that'd be good anyway. But at the end of the day, I look at what did they bring, what technology did they bring to the party? And for me, the big thing was the looking collectively at 48 volts, 800 volts, the ethernet ring and drive by wire. Those things collectively make a big, big difference.
所以，有了特斯拉的新以太网环，我的缆线需求大大减少了。现在我只需要连接到以太网线，使用非常小的通信线就可以了。而且，由于我使用的是48伏特电压，我也只需要使用小型电线。突然间，我有了什么呢？我节省了更多的重量。节省重量就是节省成本。节省重量就是增加续航里程等等。这是一种明智的方法。但是，再次看一下它的孤立情况。哦，不，不行。不行。不，不，不。然后，一些工程师或工程经理可能会获胜。他们得到了晋升、丰厚的奖金和鼓励。这些孤立的事物意味着什么都没有，但是当你看到800伏特时，我们没有讨论这个，但是转向800伏特也是一个很好的选择。因为我的电缆又更小了，等等。但是你有800伏特、48伏特的内部产品、汽车、车辆，然后你还有以太网环。天啊。这些组合起来对我来说，就好像我可以用机枪打击Cybertruck的一边。好吧，那很好。我不认为我会遇到那种情况，但无论如何，那也不错。但是在一天结束的时候，我看的是他们带来了什么，他们为这个聚会带来了什么技术？对我来说，最重要的是集体地看待48伏特、800伏特、以太网环和驱动线。这些集体地有了巨大的不同。
Yeah, absolutely. And I think Emilelet's mentioned it as a view. It's not like these technologies don't exist in the world. They do. No one is applying them to the extent that Tesla is in a vehicle. And so I think Elon said he's like, well, why not? And that's a good question. Why not? And I think to your point, Sandy, there's a lot of folks in the industry and it's, well, we've always done it that way. And you're not going to get heads and shoulders above of anyone trying to go that route.
是的，当然。而且，我认为Emilelet提到了这个观点。这并不意味着这些技术在世界上不存在，它们确实存在。只是没有人像特斯拉那样在汽车上广泛应用这些技术。所以，我认为埃隆说他是这样的，那为什么不呢？这是一个很好的问题。为什么不呢？我同意你的观点，Sandy，在这个行业中有很多人都说我们一直都是这样做的。但是如果你选择这条路，你不会在任何人之上。
But you know what's funny about this is when you look at an ad for a car or whatever, they like to focus on things that really have been around for a long time and you're basically polishing a turd. Oh, look at the seat. Oh, look at the instrument panel. Oh, look at these blue lights that we've got all over the place. What does that really do for me? Right. Okay. That's marketing's way of making you think that even though it looks the same and it does the same as what you had before, it's new and exciting.
你知道有趣的是，当你看到一辆车或其他产品的广告时，他们喜欢关注那些真正存在已久的东西，然后磨光它们。哦，看看这个座椅。哦，看看这个仪表盘。哦，看看我们到处都有的蓝色灯光。这真的对我有什么用呢？是的，这是市场营销让你觉得即使它看起来和之前的一样，功能也一样，它还是新的和令人兴奋的方式。
And maybe that works. I don't know. It certainly doesn't work for me. I want to know what's going on underneath the vehicle. I want to know what's underneath the skin anyway to tell me whether or not I'm going in the right direction. And that's where, like I say, I was very, very impressed with the driving, the technology and the openness of the folks at Tesla. I mean, I don't know if you're, I don't know if we ever mentioned it, but you know, nobody reviewed any of those, no one from Tesla reviewed any of the videos we made. None. None. I mean, and everything's one take. We don't have, we don't have like, oh, let's do that again. None of that stuff. So what you saw was in real time and right now. It's, yeah, it's pretty raw. It's pretty from, you know, it's on the spot, no doubt about it.
也许这样行得通。我不知道。对我来说肯定行不通。我想知道车辆底下正在发生什么。无论如何，我想知道皮肤下面是什么，告诉我是否朝着正确的方向前进。就像我说的，特斯拉的驾驶、技术和人们的开放度让我非常非常印象深刻。我的意思是，我不知道你是否，我不知道我们有没有提到过，但你知道的，特斯拉的人从未审查过我们制作的任何视频。一点也没有。我是说，一切都是一次性的。我们没有，噢，让我们再重来一次。没有那种事情。所以你看到的是实时的，现在的。它很原始。它很即兴，毫无疑问。
You know, so still on the topic of the Cybertruck, you know, and as it relates to the industry as a whole, so let's say the Cybertruck is a smashing success. I suspect it will be, right? It already is in many respects. How do you think that other automakers are going to respond? Like what is a reaction that you could foresee in this calendar year and beyond? Anybody that's got a car in the design phase. So either in bubble up or phase one, if they're not, if they're not moving to 48 volts, there should be, you know, an execution or at least a shaking hand and good luck at your next job. That's number one on the hit parade. So I think that that'll roll out faster than anything. And based on what I've heard from at least three different car companies when I've talked to them, they are scrambling to try and see if they can get that going as fast as possible. Yeah. The main news is that Elon and his infinite generosity decided to hand out how to get involved or how to get started in 48 volts. That design guide cuts a year, maybe 18 months out of the process. Here's how you do it. Here's who's doing it now. Here's the suppliers we're using. All this stuff's available for free. Anybody that doesn't take advantage of it is a fool. There's no reason in a world why you wouldn't want to do this. And anything that doesn't have 48 volts in four years will be an antique. It'll be difficult to try and find replacement parts. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's certainly disruptive. And it's kind of unbelievable, you know, sitting here, knowing all the stuff that Tesla puts out to the public what they do, right? Most of our customers, as you well know, right, they keep, they play that stuff quite close to the vest and Tesla is sitting here saying, Hey, here it is. Here's what we know about it. Now they're not going to go and engineer it for you. But I mean, they're giving you quite a bit relative to most of their OEMs out there. I think then in tandem with releasing something like a Cybertruck 48 volt ethernet, you know, exoskeleton gigacastings the whole nine, it's like, yeah, I could absolutely see some OEMs, especially like your, to your point in the design phase saying, well, holy crap, we got to go figure some stuff out quickly.
你知道的，还是关于Cybertruck的话题，你知道的，就这和整个行业的关系而言，假设Cybertruck取得了巨大的成功。我猜它会成功的，对吧？从很多方面来看，它已经成功了。你觉得其他汽车制造商会做出怎样的回应？比如，在今年和以后，你能预见到什么样的反应？所有已经进入设计阶段的汽车制造商肯定得向48伏特的方向发展。如果他们还没转向48伏特，那么至少应该进行调整，或者亲自去说声再见，祝你下一份工作好运。这是前一位，名列榜首。我认为这会比其他任何事情都来得快。根据我与至少三家不同汽车公司的交流，我听到他们都在争分夺秒地研究如何尽快推进这一技术。对，主要的消息是埃隆极其慷慨地决定公开如何参与或开始48伏特。这份设计指南可以省下一年，甚至一年半的时间。这是如何做的。这是谁正在做。这是我们正在使用的供应商。所有这些都可以免费获得。任何不利用这一机会的人都是傻瓜。在这个世界上没有理由不这样做。四年内没有48伏特的任何产品都将成为古董，很难找到零部件。对，我认为它肯定是具有颠覆性的。坐在这里，知道特斯拉向公众发布的所有消息和他们的所作所为，是令人难以置信的。正如你知道的，我们的大多数客户对这些事情保持着保密态度，而特斯拉却公开说“嘿，这就是我们对此的了解”。当然，他们不会为你设计工程，但是相对于其他绝大多数汽车制造商来说，他们给了你相当多的信息。我认为，与之同时发布像Cybertruck、48伏特以太网、骨架铸件等等这样的产品，我绝对能想象到一些制造商，尤其是在设计阶段的制造商，会说“哇喔，我们得迅速解决一些问题。”
Well, and you mentioned gigacastings. The gigacastings, the first one we saw was that one over there. And now it was in 2021. And now everybody's ordering machines. I mean, and it's not just in North America. And it's also in China. The Chinese are in the process of like scrapping whole under bodies completely and replacing them with castings, scrapping, stamping, stamping lines. I mean, this is a big deal to move to move quickly into what they see as the future.
嗯，你提到了gigacastings。我们看到的第一个gigacasting就是那边那个。现在已经是2021年了。现在每个人都在订购机器。这不仅仅在北美，还在中国也是如此。中国人正在全面废弃整个底盘，用铸件来替代，废弃冲压，废弃冲压生产线。我是说，这是一个重大事件，他们正在迅速转向他们所认为的未来。
Well, and that's a great segue into the next point here. You know, Tesla fans and, you know, pundits, if you want to call them that have said competition is coming for a long time. And recently, you know, we see China's BYD surpassing Tesla and electric car sales in the last quarter of 2023. Yeah, in the last quarter. But if we look at this little chart, we can see here that for the whole year, Tesla sold more than BYD did. However, BYD did beat Tesla in the last quarter of last year. Now, what does that mean? Well, I've already, in my interview with Elon Musk, I said my prediction is that BYD will be the biggest car company on the planet. That isn't just in EVs. I mean, it will take the place of Toyota and Volkswagen and General Motors. They will not have a chance against BYD, no way, no way.
嗯，这也为接下来的一点提供了良好的过渡。你知道，特斯拉的粉丝和评论家，如果你愿意这么称呼他们的话，很久以来一直在说竞争即将来临。最近我们看到，中国的比亚迪在2023年最后一个季度超过了特斯拉的电动车销量。是的，就在最后一个季度。但是如果我们看一下这个小图表，我们可以看到整个年度，特斯拉的销量比比亚迪更高。然而，比亚迪在去年年底的最后一个季度击败了特斯拉。那意味着什么呢？嗯，在我与埃隆·马斯克的采访中，我已经说过我的预测是比亚迪将成为全球最大的汽车公司。这不仅仅限于电动车。它将取代丰田、大众和通用汽车。他们在比亚迪面前没有机会，绝对没有。
So you look at that, but when you say just the last quarter, it's also important that you keep track of what happened for the whole year. This is the same thing as when all the financial analysts said, oh, the third quarter, the EV sales have gone down, oh, this is it, this is it. And, you know, sell your stock or sell short and all that sort of. When you get into these kinds of things, you have to take a much longer view of what's going on than just that. And if we look at last year, we're looking at how many EVs were sold percentage-wise, and you look at this year, and if you read the Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg or what have you, it comes along giving you the impression that EVs are all done. It was a fad, it's gone now. Let's see it back to, you know, let's get back to gas guzzling, whatever. At the end of the day, it's not really that way. Actually what you do is you look from year to year instead of day to day, and you'll find out that, hey, EVs went up quite a bit this year. Next year, I believe it's going to be even more. And I believe about halfway through the year, you're going to see people saying, well, you know, we shut that plant down or we cut the production of the plant, but I think we're going to be pumping that back up a smidge. And that's what I'm going to see.
所以你看到了这一点，但当你只说最后一个季度时，同样重要的是你要追踪整年发生的事情。这就好像所有金融分析师说的那样，哦，第三季度，电动汽车销售下降了，哦，就是这样了，就是这样了。你知道的，卖掉股票或卖空等等这些。当你涉及到这些事情时，你必须对正在发生的事情有一个更长期的观点，而不仅仅是那个。如果我们回顾去年，我们会看到电动汽车销售的百分比，然后我们再看今年，如果你读过《华尔街日报》或《彭博社》之类的，会给你一种电动汽车已经彻底过时了的印象。它是个过时的东西，已经过去了。让我们回到烧油的车上吧，无论如何。但事实上并不是这样。实际上你所做的是从年份到年份的观察，而不是从日子到日子，你会发现，嘿，今年电动汽车销量大幅上涨。明年，相信会更多。我相信在明年过去一半的时候，你会看到人们会说，哦，你知道的，我们关闭了那个工厂，或者我们削减了工厂的产能，但我认为我们会再稍稍增加一点。这是我所期望的。
And the reason for that is because day by day, more people are figuring out that, hey, EVs don't cost as much to charge up as it costs to fill up. Hey, there's no maintenance. I don't need oil changes. I don't need a radiator flush. I don't need on and on and on. Sure. Hey, my tires last longer. Hey, I don't need. My brakes don't. I don't use my brakes that much because I'm using Regen, which makes me go farther, and it also slows the car down, but it doesn't tear the wheels up and it doesn't affect the brake pads. So at the end of the day, you start getting this information out and there's no such thing as range anxiety. And of course, when, again, back to Ford, leading kind of the big companies in the right direction, saying, we're going to use the Tesla charging system. And the reason for that is because they work all the time. And I don't have to fool with that, and that's not my core competency anyway. So now with people being having access, at least with Ford, and, well, actually, almost all of them now, except for Volkswagen and a few others, everybody has access or will have access to the Tesla.
原因是因为人们逐渐意识到，使用电动车充电的费用并不像加油那样昂贵。而且电动车不需要进行维修，不需要换油，不需要冲洗散热器等等。而且，我的轮胎更耐用，我不需要经常使用刹车，因为我使用了再生制动，这使得我开得更远，同时也减慢了车速，但不会磨损轮胎或刹车片。所以总的来说，一旦我们传播这些信息，就不会再有里程焦虑的问题了。当然，回到福特，作为那些大公司中的领导者，他们选择使用特斯拉的充电系统的原因是因为它们始终可靠，并且不需要额外操作，而且充电系统并不是他们的核心竞争力。所以现在人们至少能够使用福特，而实际上几乎所有厂商，除了大众和其他几家，都已经或将会使用特斯拉的充电系统。
Yeah, the North American charging system. That gives the world a whole different perspective on range anxiety, which I never bought into anyways. I mean, I went crisscrossed to 8,500 miles and did it in 11 days, and I never had any range anxiety. I don't know what they. I don't know where that ever came from, but it was obviously some marketer, not a real person.
是的，北美的充电系统给世界带来了对于续航焦虑的全新看法，不过我从未担心过这个问题。我意思是，我曾经穿越距离达到8500英里，在11天内完成，从来没有感到任何续航焦虑。我不知道他们在想什么，也不知道这个焦虑从何而来，但显然是一些市场营销者而不是真实的人想出来的。
So as we wrapped up the last quarter, BYD started to get the edge on Tesla in terms of sales. Going into 2024, presumably BYD is one of the OEMs that we'll be keeping an eye on. Is there anyone else in industry, any other OEMs that you would see as posing a significant challenge versus Tesla, for example?
在我们结束了上个季度后，比亚迪开始在销量方面超过特斯拉。进入2024年，我们预计比亚迪是我们需要关注的原始设备制造商之一。除了比亚迪以外，您认为还有哪些行业内的其他原始设备制造商可能对特斯拉构成重大挑战？
Well, what we need to do occasionally is look at somebody else's data, and this, by far, is one of my favorite charts out there. I've shown this about a dozen times, and this is from car industry analysis. These guys did a great job, and you can see here that Geely's got 25 different EVs in the marketplace right now, all over Europe, all over China, all over South America, all over everywhere, right? Coming in second is Atlantis. Now we don't see much going on here in North America, but then I've kind of predicted that Stellanus is probably going to abandon ship on North America. Their headquarters is for sale right now. They want to get out of that.
嗯，我们偶尔需要查看别人的数据，而这个图表迄今为止是我最喜欢的之一。我已经展示过大约十几次，这是汽车行业分析的结果。这些家伙做得非常好，你可以看到吉利现在在欧洲、中国、南美洲等各个地方有25款不同的电动车。排名第二是亚特兰蒂斯。现在在北美大陆我们没有看到太多的动态，但我曾预测Stellanus可能会放弃在北美的市场。他们的总部现在正在出售。他们想要退出那个市场。
I don't see, I haven't heard anything about a new 300, or what are they going to do with the RAM and the charger, or sorry, another RAM, but the challenger and the charger? I haven't seen a RAM truck that's going to compete with a lightning, or I can't even hardly imagine it competing with the cyber truck. So what's happening? So we were talking about predictions. I believe that Stellanus is probably going to move Jeep and RAM somewhere else, probably China. And I believe that they'll just kind of like diminish their involvement here in North America. Yeah, it's interesting, right?
我没看到，也没听说过关于新300的任何消息，或者他们打算怎么处理RAM和充电器，或者抱歉，又是另一个RAM，但挑战者(challenger)和充电器(charger)呢？我还没见过有一辆与闪电(Lightning)竞争的RAM卡车，甚至很难想象它与Cybertruck竞争。所以发生了什么事？我们刚才在讨论预测。我相信斯泰勒纳斯(Stellanus)可能会把Jeep和RAM搬到其他地方，可能是中国吧。而且我相信他们可能会在北美降低参与度。是挺有趣的，对吧？
Depending on which vehicle line you look at it, Stellanus, right? They just, they announced the RAM charger, so they use a 3.6 liter as a range extender. And that I know for sure has created a lot of industry buzz because of the range that it offers, right? That range anxiety thing that you had mentioned, it truly does get rid of that. But you look at other car lines, like I think the Chrysler 300 about a month ago, more or less, I think is at the tail end of 23, they announced the last Chrysler 300 coming off the line. So yeah, I think there's definitely a question mark out there in some respect with Stellanus. Like, what's the next major sedan? What does that look like? And in what capacity? Meaning how well will that compete with a Model Y or anything else in North America specifically? It's interesting.
根据你查看的车系不同，Stellanus（指Stellantis公司）呀。他们刚刚宣布了RAM charger，所以他们使用了一台3.6升的发动机作为续航增程器。我确定这引起了很大的行业轰动，因为它能提供更长的续航里程，对吧？之前你提到的续航焦虑问题，它确实解决了这个问题。但是你再看看其他车系，像是大约一个月前的克莱斯勒300，我认为即将生产的最后一辆克莱斯勒300已经宣布要下线了。所以，对Stellanus来说，确实存在一些疑问，比如下一个重要轿车是什么？它会是什么样子？以及它将如何与Model Y或其他在北美市场上竞争？这很有趣。
Well, the North American market is tough. There's no question about it. It's a very difficult market to enter, but when you do get in, if you do make a big splash, you make a lot of money. There is nothing, there's no other market out there where you can make as much money on volume as you can here in North America. And that's why most people are trying for it. But if you don't understand the market, that's when you lose. And you can lose big if you don't understand the American market. Absolutely.
嗯，北美市场是相当艰难的。毫无疑问，这是一个非常难以进入的市场，但一旦你成功进入并大获成功，你就可以赚取大量的钱。在其他市场中，没有哪一个市场能像在北美市场那样通过规模带来如此丰厚的利润。这就是为什么大多数人都在努力争取在北美市场立足的原因。但是如果你不了解这个市场，你就会失败。如果你不了解美国市场，你可能会蒙受巨大的损失，绝对没错。
You know, in terms of making money, it's interesting. Tesla's had a trend of continuing to reduce prices. Do you anticipate over the coming months or this calendar, do you anticipate any other OEMs out there trying to do the same thing in order to keep up with the Joneses as it were?
你知道，就赚钱而言，这是很有意思的。特斯拉一直在不断降低价格。你是否预计在接下来的几个月或是今年，其他汽车制造商也会尝试采取同样的做法，以跟上潮流呢？
Well, I do know that Volkswagen has reduced their cost, Ford's reduced their cost, GM has reduced their cost. Now GM reduced the cost on the bolt, which I thought was just brilliant. That's a great idea. I thought the regen on the bolt or the relaunch of the bolt, I thought, hey, this is it. These guys got it by, you know, they've got to buy a margin here. This is good because all their investment costs were now all gone. So when people say they can't make any money and whatnot, it's because you've folded in the investment cost associated with it, development costs and whatnot. Well, the bolt had sold enough that it was ready to go. Why they folded up their cards and moved away as beyond me? Because now that you've got something in a marketplace that really is a competitive vehicle, why would I shut it down and run away? Is that to, I mean, again, it must be something to do with making Wall Street happy. I'm not sure. But to me, looking at General Motors doing that, it just, I see, I see no sense in that at all.
嗯，我确实知道大众汽车降低了成本，福特也降低了成本，通用汽车也降低了成本。现在通用汽车降低了Bolt的成本，我觉得这真是太聪明了。这是一个很好的主意。我以为Bolt的再生制动或重新发布，我认为，嘿，这次他们成功了，他们必须有了一大笔利润。这很好，因为他们所有的投资成本现在都消失了。所以当有人说他们无法赚钱之类的，那是因为你已经把与之相关的投资成本、开发成本等考虑进去了。嗯，Bolt的销量已经足够了，它已经准备好进入市场了。为什么他们收起了拳牌离开了呢？这超出了我的理解。因为现在你在市场上有了一款真正有竞争力的车型，为什么要关闭它然后离开呢？这是为了让华尔街高兴吗？我不确定。但对我来说，看到通用汽车这样做，我完全看不出其中的道理。
Yeah, I too thought it was an odd move from GM. I didn't necessarily see that coming. But they did fill an interesting void in the marketplace in terms of a small lower cost and a Bev application. Do you see any other automakers right now, like if you had to pick one that would maybe fill that void that is well poised to do so, to fill that lower cost, small EV niche that the bolt offered to the market?
是的，我也觉得这是通用汽车的一个奇怪举动。我并没有预料到这样的情况。但他们填补了市场上对小型、低成本和电动汽车应用的一个有趣空白。你现在是否看到其他汽车制造商，如果你必须选择一个填补这个空白，并且有很好的准备来填补低成本、小型电动汽车领域，就像Bolt给市场带来的那样？
I don't know what's on the drawing board. I'm hoping that General Motors has got something else coming down the pike, but it doesn't sound like it because they aren't reworking the plant. That's the Lake Orient plant, I think, right? So I haven't heard anything about, for many of the machine tool guys, about doing any kind of rework. Maybe they can pick up on the same pins or something like that. Maybe they can just reprogram the robots. I'm not sure, but at the end of the day, we don't, I don't hear or see anything there.
我不知道绘图板上是什么。我希望通用汽车有其他的计划，但听起来似乎不是这样，因为他们没有重新设计工厂。是那个Lake Orient工厂，对吧？所以我对机床操作员的工作没有听到任何重新设计的消息。也许他们可以用同样的针或者其他方法解决问题。也许他们可以重新编程机器人。我不确定，但是总的来说，我们没有听到、看到任何关于这方面的消息。
I know that, I know that for sure Ford and Volkswagen and BMW and Mercedes all have small cars that they're trying to crank out. But I think, like I said, I don't care who gets in as president. 2024, they may be able to keep the trainees out, maybe, but I doubt it. But 2025, that'll be it. Because once there's a new administrative administration in, or even if it's the same one, there's going to be a public outcry. Hey, how come, if these eyes aren't giving us any cars, how come you can't give us any car? I can't give you any car cars.
我知道，我确信福特、大众、宝马和奔驰都有正在努力推出小型车。但我认为，就像我说的，我不在乎谁成为总统。2024年，他们可能能够把实习生排除在外，也许，但我怀疑。但2025年就不一样了。因为一旦有新的行政管理团队，即使是同一个团队，就会引发公众强烈不满。嘿，为什么如果这些公司不能提供我们汽车，你们为什么不能呢？我不能给你任何车。
Remember, I was alive and cognizant of what was going on when the Japanese started bringing their cars in. And it was public opinion, especially California. Actually every area that's congested, California and New York City, they kind of said, hey, you know what, we're tired of the air pollution. We're tired of high prices for crap cars. And that was the reason that the Japanese got in. And it wasn't because of, oh well, we're negotiating or anything. That wasn't baloney. These guys all get elected by people. And if the people are screaming and yelling and saying they want something and you don't deliver, you don't get reelected. Right.
记住，当日本开始进口他们的汽车时，我还活着并且对周围发生的事情有所认识。而且公众舆论尤其是加利福尼亚，实际上每个拥挤的地区，加利福尼亚和纽约市，都说，嘿，你知道吗，我们对空气污染感到厌倦了。我们对垃圾车的高价格感到厌倦了。这就是日本人进入市场的原因。并不是因为谈判什么的。那都是废话。这些人都是被选民选上的。如果选民们高声疾呼说他们想要某样东西，而你却不提供，那你会丧失连任资格。对吧。
And I believe that the Chinese will get in because their products are certainly superior to what we've seen here from the guys at Volkswagen. I mean, they're just really good vehicles, really good. So I believe that the Chinese will come in and that's where the void will be filled.
我认为中国车企会进入市场，因为他们的产品明显优于我们在大众公司看到的。我的意思是，他们的车只是真的很好，真的很不错。所以我相信中国车企会进入市场，填补这个空缺。
Yeah, interesting. There's a whole slew of OEMs out there that are not, I'll say, maybe they're industry household names, I'll call them that right now. But certainly, you know, if I were to talk to someone who's not in industry and like, hey, what do you think of the BYDC? They'd be like, what are you talking about? But they don't know that, you know, there's a lot of vehicles and a lot of them are quite good. Yeah, they're all good. I mean, I spent a lot of time in China, along with a whole bunch of other people, training them how to design product. That's what we did. Training them how to design product and mostly design of what? Yeah, electric cars. Then we had all kinds of Europeans, Americans, Japanese that were over there showing them how to build a perfect car every time. And the Chinese are very, very good at learning. They don't make junk. Pretty much everybody on the planet is using one of their appliances in their house. No question about it. I mean, you think, oh, I'm buying a GE. No, you're not. You're buying higher. Oh, I'm buying Samsung. Well, no, you're not. That's made in China as well. Well, I'm buying, it doesn't matter what you think you got. It's all made somewhere else. It doesn't matter whether it's a microwave or a rice cooker or a coffee pot or a big giant refrigerator or a stove. It doesn't matter. It's all made in China and they make good stuff. They don't make junk anymore. They've never. There's no doubt about it.
是的，很有趣。市面上有很多OEM厂商，可能并不是很有名，我现在暂且这样称呼他们。但是，你可能会发现，对于一些非行业人士来说，如果我问他们对比亚迪有什么看法，他们可能会不知所云。但是他们并不知道，实际上有很多车型，而且其中很多都非常不错。是的，它们都很好。说实话，我和其他一些人在中国度过了很多时间，培训他们如何设计产品。那就是我们所做的。培训他们如何设计产品，尤其是什么样的产品呢？没错，是电动汽车。然后，我们有很多欧洲人、美国人和日本人去那里向他们展示如何每次都打造一辆完美的汽车。中国人非常擅长学习。他们不会制造垃圾产品。几乎全世界的人都在家里使用他们的电器，无疑。想想吧，哦，我要买个GE烤箱。不，你不是。你买的是海尔。哦，我要买个三星。不，你买的也是中国制造。不管你觉得自己买了什么，实际上它们都是在其他地方生产的。无论是微波炉、电饭煲、咖啡壶还是大冰箱、炉灶，都是在中国制造的，而且它们做得很好。他们不再生产劣质产品，而他们从未这样做过，毫无疑问。
So, the connotation lasted for longer than maybe it should have. Going back to, you had mentioned closer to the intro, this dynamic, kind of attention right now in the news and everywhere else. I know Detroit Free Press has talked about Ford, for example, saying only half of their dealerships, I think it's just over 1,500 or something, are going to sell ice in hybrid only. They're not going to sell EVs. What's your reaction to that? What do you think that sort of indicates in the market today? And maybe it's more indicative of dealerships and how they operate. I'm not sure.
所以，这种含义持续的时间可能比应该的时间长。回到你在开头提到的这种动态，现在新闻和其他地方都有一种关注。我知道底特律自由新闻曾经谈到了福特，例如，他们说只有一半的经销商，大约1500多家，将只销售混合动力汽车，不销售电动汽车。对此你有何反应？你认为它在目前的市场上意味着什么？也许更多地反映了经销商及其运营方式。我不太确定。
Well, there's an adage about the tail that wags the dog. And I think that that's what's happening right now. The union is a tail that's wagging the dog. The dealerships are the tail that's wagging the dog. And when you follow the rules, or sorry, not the rules, but if you follow the dictates of the servants, the master is going to fail. Simple as that. That's the way it works. When the worm turns, your ability to figure out what's going to be the right way to go is going to be hampered. And the reason for that is because the people, let's use the unions, they're looking at, hey, I want more money. So what impact is that going to have? We won't sell as many cars. Well, we want more money. Well, as they can't sell cars because they're too expensive, then that means that we won't need as many workers. Yeah, but we want more money. So they've got one voice that has one view of the world, one view of the automotive world. And when in reality, when you get to the top of the house, people complain it, that guy made a million dollars. What did he do? What impact did he have? Yeah, but our guys are putting nuts and bolts on. Yep. And that's an honorable kind of job. No question about it. Does it create more wealth for the company so that we can make more cars so that there's more guys putting nuts and bolts on the car? That's lost. When you look at the dealerships, hey, that's going to affect my profitability if I can't maintain vehicles. I don't want those guys doing that. I want, well, that's their viewpoint. And when you have a single source of viewpoint, when you have one viewpoint and you don't see the rest of what goes on sooner or later, it's going to hurt the dog and the dog will die. So that's kind of like the way I see it. When the tail wags the dog, the end isn't too far away.
嗯，有一个关于狗被尾巴摇着走的谚语。我认为这正是现在所发生的事情。工会是摇着狗尾巴的尾巴，经销商也是摇着狗尾巴的尾巴。如果你遵循仆人的指示，主人就会失败。就是这么简单。当局势发生逆转时，你将很难确定正确的前进方向。原因就是人们，比如说工会，他们在考虑：“嘿，我想要更多的钱。”这会有什么影响呢？我们卖的车会少。嗯，但我们想要更多的钱。然后，当他们因为价格过高无法卖车时，那就意味着我们就不需要那么多工人了。是的，但我们想要更多的钱。所以他们有一个声音，对于世界有一个观点，对于汽车行业有一个观点。然而，在现实中，当你处在公司的高层时，人们抱怨说，那个家伙挣了一百万美元。他做了什么？他有什么影响？是的，但我们的员工正在紧固螺帽和螺栓。没错, 这是一种光荣的工作。毫无疑问地。但是，这是否为公司创造更多财富，以便我们能够生产更多汽车，有更多人为汽车紧固螺帽和螺栓呢？这一点被忽视了。当看到经销商时，嘿，如果我不能维修车辆，那将影响我的盈利能力。我不希望那些人这么做。我希望... 那是他们的观点。当你只有一个观点，只看到事情的一面，迟早会对狗造成伤害，狗也会死亡。所以，这就是我所看到的情况。当尾巴摇动狗的时候，结束不会太远。
No, and it's something that we're seeing pop up, right? Like dealers having a certain disposition towards EVs. And it's hard to say chicken or the egg is that because they're not moving as many vehicles as they had hoped. They don't like dealing with them. They don't get to your point the oil change benefit and the after-sale sense. It is difficult, but there's no doubt that it's got an impact in the industry as a whole. And how. It'll just hurry on the application of the Chinese getting their products into the marketplace. Sure.
不，我们正在看到这种情况出现，对吗？就像经销商对电动汽车有一定的偏见。很难说是因为他们销售的车辆没有他们希望的那么多，所以他们不喜欢处理这些电动汽车。他们没有获得您提到的换油的好处和售后服务。这确实是困难的，但毫无疑问，这对整个行业产生了影响。还有，它将加快中国产品进入市场的进程。当然。
So speaking of trends, Tesla, Cybertruck, Gigacasting is something that is an industry term. Tesla has cleaned it. And now everyone is looking to your point. There's folks scrapping whole under body lines trying to replace with castings. China is certainly an area that we're seeing that are there any other automakers like maybe such as Toyota or others that you would envision really trying to aggressively pursue this and deploy this and their vehicles moving forward?
说起趋势，特斯拉、Cybertruck和Gigacasting是行业术语。特斯拉已经做到了。现在每个人都在关注这一点。有些人正在试图用铸件来替换整个底盘线。中国确实是我们看到这种趋势的地区，还有其他的汽车制造商，比如丰田或其他你认为会积极追求并在未来推出这一技术的汽车制造商吗？
Yeah, well, right now we know that because one of their gig of casting machines was at the show that I just spoke at, the casting show I spoke at. And there's a Ford machine and there's a Hyundai machine and Honda machine. And I mean, they're right there. I can't miss them. They're huge. So we know about that. We know that General Motors has already got castings in a couple of their vehicles. They're more like this type of casting here, not die castings, but they're. Yeah, the cellophane was coming out and there were some images.
是的，现在我们知道这一点，因为其中一个他们的铸造机的演出是在我刚刚发表演讲的展会上，我所发表演讲的铸造展会上。有一台福特机器，还有一台现代机器和本田机器。而且我的意思是，它们就在那里。我不能错过它们。它们很巨大。所以我们对此有所了解。我们知道通用汽车已经在他们的几辆车中使用了铸件。它们更像是这种类型的铸件，而不是压铸件。嗯，塑料封套已经出来了，还有一些图像。
Yeah. Yeah, so we know about that. We don't know. And we know that some of the German companies are moving in that direction. All of the Korean companies, most of the Chinese companies, and I'm pretty sure that Honda and Toyota are going to be coming out with their versions in the not too distant future based on rumor and innuendo. Yeah, and we see this with our clients also.
是的。是的，我们知道这一点。我们不知道。我们知道一些德国公司正在朝这个方向发展。韩国的所有公司，大多数中国公司，我相信本田和丰田也会在不久的将来推出他们自己的版本，这是根据谣言和传言。是的，我们在我们的客户身上也看到这一点。
And you talk about in Hearts and Minds, which is something that I've been roe, Sandy, and other folks will give in terms of talking about sort of the ethos of Monroe and how we look at things and how we should look at engineering something, for example, or how you should go about designing it. And you say that, you know, maybe I'll get the percentages wrong, but, you know, engineering is 90% psychology and 10% technology.
你谈到了《心与智》这本书，在书中你提到了我、桑迪和其他人在谈论关于门罗以及我们如何看待事物的精神和工程设计。比如，你提到了，工程设计的过程可能有些比例比较错误，但心理学在其中占据了90%，技术只占10%。
And what I see, I know, when working with clients is often that for something like a giga casting, they could have all the data in the world. And they still would not go for it. There would be someone to your point that would say, no, because we don't have, we've never done it. There's no one out in the competition that's doing it successfully in production that we can confirm and look at. So we're not going to do it. But Tesla comes along and, you know, over there on the floor, we've got giga castings kind of all over the building. And then now all these OEMs, you know, the eyebrows raise and everyone says, we need to know about that. We need to go do that and it becomes this huge buzz.
根据我与客户的工作经验，我经常发现对于像千吨铸件这样的项目，即使他们拥有世界上的所有数据，他们仍然不会选择它。正如你所说，会有人说不，因为我们没有，我们从未这样做过。竞争对手也没有成功地生产这样的产品，我们无法确认和研究。所以我们不会去做。但是特斯拉出现了，在他们的工厂里到处都是千吨铸件。然后现在，许多汽车制造商都开始关注，大家都说我们需要了解这个。我们需要去尝试这个，成为一个巨大的关注焦点。
Do you think that psychology is really all, you know, it's interesting to me. It took just one person or one OEM to go out and do this. And all these other OEMs start getting on board quickly. Do you attribute that to the psychology technology or do you think that the technology just happened to spring up? No, it's the same thing. It's the psychology. 90% of the people will say no faster than anything. They don't want to get involved with anything that's different because it'll affect my bonus, it'll affect my, it could, it's the car career. It's good for the car and good for my career. It's an easy path. If it's good for the car, bad for my career, it ain't going to get in. If it's good for my career, bad for the car, it'll probably get in. And that's kind of the way things are, is just it is what it is. And those options, if you like, are the things that people consider continuously if they want to get ahead inside of an organization.
你认为心理学真的是所有的，你知道的，它对我来说很有趣。只需要一个人或一个原始设备制造商去做这件事，其他所有原始设备制造商都开始迅速加入。你认为这是心理技术的功劳，还是觉得这项技术只是偶然出现的？不，这是同一件事。90%的人会很快说不。他们不愿意参与任何与众不同的事情，因为这会影响我的奖金，影响我的，它会影响我的职业生涯。对汽车和对我的职业生涯都有好处，这是一条容易的道路。如果对汽车有好处，对我的职业生涯有坏处，它就不会被采纳。如果对我的职业生涯有好处，对汽车有坏处，它可能会被采纳。事情就是这样。而这些选择，如果你喜欢的话，就是人们在组织内不断考虑的事情，如果他们想在组织中取得进步的话。
Yeah. Okay. But Tesla doesn't think that way. Right. Tesla thinks, hey, if we come up with something new, Elon is going to say, hey, you did a good job. And that, and the other thing coupled with that is that the mentality over there is, if you don't fail, you haven't been doing anything. Right. Right. And so you've got a different psychology. That culture, cultures are very, very difficult to change inside of organizations or countries or companies or even amongst people. Cultures are hard to change. But when they do change, if you can make them change, there's always huge, huge improvements, and that's kind of like what's going on with the psychology. You have to change the mind when we say, if you change the mind, the ass will follow. Something along those lines. But it's true.
是的。好的。但特斯拉不是这样想的。对的。特斯拉认为，嘿，如果我们创造出了新东西，埃隆会说，嘿，你做得很好。而与此同时，他们的心态是，如果你没有失败，就说明你什么都没做。对的。对的。所以他们有一种不同的心理。文化，不论是组织、国家、公司甚至个人，都很难改变。但是一旦它们改变了，如果你能让它们改变，就会有巨大的改进，这就像是心理学正在发生的事情。我们必须改变思维，才能影响行动。大致就是这样。但这是真的。
Yeah. Once we've shown this and once people see it, and once they see the documentation, the numbers, because this is now real, it's not a guess, then they're willing to sign up and move ahead. Yeah. And a similar vein is with the gigacastings. Something that I think Tesla in many respects pioneered in the OEM space, but the Chinese market is now following is the rapid development pace that they're setting. Right. We used to speak in terms of five or six year life cycles to develop a vehicle. And now people are doing it in three years, two years. Two years and 18 months.
是的。一旦我们展示了这个，人们看到了，一旦他们看到了文件，数字，因为现在这是真实的，不是猜测，那么他们就愿意注册并继续前进。是的。在业务发展方面，特斯拉在很多方面开创了先河，但中国市场现在正在追随他们快速发展的步伐。对的。我们过去常常说开发一辆车需要五六年的生命周期。现在人们只需要三年，两年甚至十八个月。
So if we look at what Tesla's been doing, okay, with the three, the Y, the revamping of different things, they seem to have somewhere between an 18 to 24 month schedule.
所以，如果我们看看特斯拉一直以来所做的事情，好吧，有了三个，Y车型，以及对不同方面的改进，他们似乎有一个18到24个月的安排计划。
Now, the cyber truck was different, so I asked Elon about it, and it's in the interview. I said, well, how come it took four years? Well, I said, well, a little bit had to do with COVID. That slowed us down. We had to change the supply community considerably to go to 48 volts. We had to find a lot of stuff. So they weren't just creating a car. They were creating a new form of industry. And that is a much bigger...
job, much more challenging than just, okay, we're going to reskin the car. And that, in the olden days, would take at least three, sometimes four years. And now, the Chinese are swapping stuff out. They don't have that same perception that you have to hang on to assets.
现在，赛博卡车与众不同，所以我问了埃隆关于它的问题，并在采访中讲述了。我说，为什么花了四年时间？然后我说，其中一部分原因是因为COVID疫情。这使我们进度放慢了。我们不得不大幅改变供应链，转向48伏。我们必须找到很多东西。所以他们不仅仅是在创造一辆汽车，他们还在创造一种新的工业形态。这是一项更大、更具挑战性的工作，远非只是再包装一辆车。在过去的日子里，这至少需要三年，有时甚至需要四年。而现在，中国人正在替换掉一些东西。他们并不像你们有着要保留财产的相同观念。
So the big thing that we always heard was, well, I got to make sure that we get our money's worth out of these old piece of shit machines. Why? They're old, and they are inaccurate. And the money that we saved by not buying a new machine, we lost in productivity and, you know, excessive labor for trying to fix whatever came out of that machine. That's where things, again, fall apart when you listen to the wrong people. And the wrong people are usually in that situation.
所以我们一直听到的重要问题是，我得确保我们从这些破旧机器中得到物有所值。为什么呢？因为它们太旧了，而且不准确。我们因为不购买新机器而节省的钱，却在生产效率上和试图修复机器所浪费的劳动力中损失了。当你听错人的话时，情况就会变得混乱。而这些错的人通常就在这种情况下。
Most people are usually people who understand only one thing. If I don't spend any money, I'll get a bonus. If I spend money, I'm going to get my hands slapped. Yeah, they're quick to fail, quick to cut their losses and move on to the next thing.
大多数人通常只懂得一件事。如果我不花钱，就能得到奖金。如果我花钱，就会挨骂。是的，他们很快就会失败，很快就会减少损失并转而进行下一件事。
Exactly. And that mentality, again, that's a mentality, that's a culture. And again, you get back to which classification you put that in. Is it a technological thing or is it a psychological thing? Anything to do with culture? Anything to do with changing your mind? Anything to change the course of how things are done or the rules or regulations for that course, that's all psychology. Nothing to do with technology. Absolutely.
没错。而那种心态，再次强调，那是一种心态，一种文化。再次强调，你会问它属于哪种分类。是技术问题还是心理问题？是文化的关联吗？是改变你的想法吗？是改变事物进行方式的转变或规则或法规的改变吗？所有这些完全是心理学的范畴。与技术无关。绝对如此。
Kind of changing gears, you know, going back to EVs and what we see for 2024 and also looking through the lens of what we saw in 2023. There's been any number of small attempted OEMs, startups that have come out and said, you know, I'll say, trying to be the next Tesla, trying to come up with their own vehicle and do their own thing. You know, do you believe that some entities like Lucid and Rivian will stick around through 2024 and beyond? Or do you think that they're kind of destined to go into the ground? Like what do you envision for some of these startups? Because there's no doubt that it is just the market alone, North American market stuff, but the industry is tough.
有点像转换档位，你知道的，回到电动汽车上，谈谈我们对2024年的看法，并通过2023年的视角来看待。已经有许多小型尝试性原始设备制造商和初创公司走出来，并表示他们要成为下一个特斯拉，设计自己的车辆并做自己的事情。你认为像Lucid和Rivian这样的实体会在2024年及以后继续存在吗？还是你认为它们注定要消失？对于这些初创公司，你有什么设想？因为毫无疑问，这仅仅是市场的问题，首先是北美市场，但整个行业都很艰难。
Yeah. Okay. So when it comes to Rivian, I believe that they'll be fine. They have enough diversity in their product that as long as they can get rid of a tremendous amount of weight and redesign the products a little bit more so that they're easier to put together. And maybe what they might have to do is negotiate or maybe take in some of the componentry that they currently outsource to suppliers. Maybe they need new suppliers, maybe they need to take it in-house. I'm not sure, but they've got a higher cost than they should have. But these things are overcomerable. You can overcome this. It's not that hard.
是的。好的。所以，说到Rivian，我相信他们会没事的。他们的产品多样性足够，只要他们能够大幅减轻重量，并对产品进行一些重新设计，使其更容易组装。也许他们需要进行谈判，或者接纳一些目前外包给供应商的组件。也许他们需要新的供应商，或者把生产内部化。我不确定，但是他们的成本比他们应该有的要高。但是这些问题是可以解决的。你可以克服这些问题，不是那么难。
When you look at Lucid, you've got a different kind of a problem. They've had a lot of, there's been a lot of noise, but there hasn't been a lot of, I don't know, performance. And I've said it dozens of times and I'll say it forever. The air electric motor system or the drive system is absolutely brilliant. The best there is out there. But it's expensive and the rest of the car is outrageously expensive. Now they've got the new one coming out that's supposed to be less expensive and whatnot, but I don't see them flying off the showroom floor. And so consequently, I'm not 100% sure, I don't know what they're going to do. But I do know one thing. They're funded by Saudi Arabia, the country, Saudi Arabia.
当你看到Lucid时，你会遇到一种不同类型的问题。他们曾引起了很多噪音，但实际上没有取得太多成绩。我说过很多次，而且将会一直说。空气电动机系统或者驱动系统绝对是非常出色的，是市场上最好的。但是它的价格很高，整个车也非常昂贵。现在他们即将推出一款价格较低的新车，但我并不认为它们会在展厅大卖。因此，我不确定他们会采取什么样的行动。但有一件事我知道。他们的资金来自沙特阿拉伯，也就是沙特阿拉伯这个国家。
And people were throwing rocks at Mary Barra for making money. Peter Rolensen made over $200 million. And I really don't see much in the way of results. So I believe that some companies might have to get bailed out or maybe they'll just pack up the whole thing and ship it off to Saudi Arabia and try and sell it to the Arab nations. I'm not sure, but I know one thing for sure. I know one thing for sure. I don't see how Faraday is going to make it. I don't see Lucid being hugely profitable anytime soon. There's a few of them out there that are like that and I don't see a way forward for them. But you never can tell. Something could happen, but they don't look to me as being anybody who wants to put another luxury car into the marketplace and wants to try and compete with a new electric EV Bentley or Rolls Royce or whatever, you've got a really tough uphill battle with that. I don't know how you're going to do it.
人们对玛丽·巴拉赚钱感到愤怒，开始向她扔石头。而彼得·罗伦森赚了两亿美元。但我并没有看到什么实质性的成果。所以我相信有些公司可能需要获得救助，或者他们只会把整个公司运到沙特阿拉伯，试图向阿拉伯国家销售。我不确定，但我确实知道一件事。我确实知道一件事。我不看好法拉第能够成功。我不认为Lucid在短期内会有巨大的盈利。还有一些类似的公司，我看不到它们的前进之路。但你永远不能确定。也许会发生什么，但他们对我来说并不是想要再推出另一款豪华车型，并且想要与新的电动汽车品牌如宾利或劳斯莱斯竞争的人。你会面临非常困难的挑战。我不知道你该如何做到这一点。
But if you look at, actually one thing we should look at is the new technologies that are out there and one of them being, hey, guess what? We've got sodium batteries now. Don't need any lithium. Oh, if we need lithium, we've got new processes like Energy X. We've got a new process there to take lithium out of salt water or brine. It's different than salt water. They take it out of brine and guess who's doing it as well? Oh, Exxon. So we're looking at lots of different new things that are coming up that could change the whole complexity or everything basically associated with the most expensive part of any of the electric vehicles and that's the battery. If the battery price goes down significantly because we're going to use sodium or lithium now as cheap or any number of different things that could happen, if we've got that, who's going to stand in the way of EVs then?
但是，实际上，我们应该关注的一件事是新出现的技术，其中之一就是钠电池。我们不再需要锂电池了。哦，如果我们需要锂电池，我们还有像能源X这样的新工艺。我们有一种新的工艺可以从海水或卤水中提取锂，这和普通的海水不同。谁在这方面也在做呢？哦，是埃克森。所以我们正在关注许多不同的新事物，它们可能会改变与电动车最昂贵部分——电池相关的一切复杂性。如果电池价格大幅下降，因为我们将使用廉价的钠或锂，或者可能发生其他许多事情，那么还有谁会阻挡电动车的发展呢？
Yeah, absolutely. If one of these guys can, I mean, it's a race to get to that technology and implement it in a vehicle. You get there first, I would say your future is certainly much better than it was before and everyone's scrambling to get there for sure.
是的，完全正确。如果这些人中的一个能够做到，我的意思是，那就是在竞争谁能率先将这项技术应用到汽车中。如果你先到达那个目标，我可以说你的未来肯定比以前好很多，而且每个人都在争相追赶那个目标。
In a similar light, but away from the product and looking at manufacturing, AI is coming about a lot of robotic technologies are maturing quicker than ever. Things like these humanoid bots that look like people but are certainly robots are entering the manufacturing line. What do you anticipate for this year and beyond for robots being implemented on the line? What types of savings, not in a quantity amount, but do you think the savings could be drastic for the OEMs as it relates to manufacturing costs by deploying these robots on the line?
在类似的情况下，但不涉及产品，而是从制造业的角度来看，人工智能正在催生大量机器人技术，其成熟速度比以往任何时候都要快。像这样的类似人类外形但肯定是机器人的人形机器人正在进入生产线。对于今年及未来将机器人应用于生产线，您有什么预期？您认为利用这些机器人部署在生产线上对于原始设备制造商而言可以带来哪些节省，不仅是在数量上，而是在制造成本上的节省您认为可能会很明显？
Well it depends. The original idea behind the robots that Tesla cranked out was to attack the 3D's dirty, dirty, drudgery and dangerous and that's good. I've never really been, I've never really seen one of these things live and in person working, but I did see a video on a guy's phone when I was in Texas, in Austin. Now the video was probably 3 to 5 minutes long and it showed me a vastly different robot than what I saw from Tesla. And that robot, that robot was phenomenal. If that robot is put into the marketplace with silicon fingers and stuff like that, that will make a huge difference. And I can hear the Union screaming right now saying, we don't want those robots. And it's going to be a tough decision for them to swallow because hey, if it's expensive, we've got to try and figure out how to make it less expensive. If that robot can do what a human can do, why have I got a human? That guy works in the dark. And by the way, he also sees at the back of his head instead of the front of his head. I mean, I now have peripheral vision. I'm never going to have a guy trip over anything. He's never going to walk backwards into a forklift truck. This robot can see all the way around him. He can do tons of things that an average man can't do, or human. But I'm telling you what, things are going to change a lot if these new robots that are being developed come to play. But I'm glad you brought that up because some people said that I saw this at Tesla. I did not. I did not see anything. I only saw one guy, or I don't even know it was a man or a woman. I was so shocked at what I saw that I can only remember what I saw. How was it? It was really, really fascinating. From somebody like myself, I worked on the very first robots, the Unimate robots when I was 16. I'm telling you what, this is a huge step change. It's a different thing. Yeah. Totally different.
这要看情况。特斯拉制造机器人最初的想法是用于解决3D任务的肮脏、乏味和危险问题，这是好事。我从未真正亲眼见过这些机器人正在工作，但在我在德克萨斯州奥斯汀时，我确实在一个人的手机上看过一个视频。那个视频可能有3到5分钟长，向我展示了一个与我在特斯拉看到的机器人完全不同的机器人。那个机器人简直太神奇了。如果那种机器人进入市场，配备硅指头之类的东西，那将产生巨大的影响。我现在能够听到工会正在尖叫，他们说我们不要这些机器人。这对他们来说将是个艰难的决定，因为嘿，如果这太贵，我们必须设法降低成本。如果那个机器人可以做到人类能做的事情，我为什么还要雇佣人类呢？那个人在黑暗中工作。而且，顺便说一下，他看的是后脑勺而不是前脑勺。我的意思是，我现在拥有周边视觉。我永远不会让人再绊倒什么东西。他永远不会倒退撞上叉车。这个机器人可以看到自己周围的一切。他可以做很多普通人无法做到的事情。但我告诉你，如果这些正在研发中的新机器人真的问世，事情将发生很大的变化。但我很高兴你提到这个，因为有些人说我在特斯拉看到过这个。但事实并非如此，我什么都没看到。我只看到了一个人，甚至不确定是男是女。我对我所看到的感到如此震惊，以至于只记得我看到了什么。那个如何？真的非常非常迷人。对于像我这样的人，我在16岁时参与了最早的机器人——Unimate机器人的开发。我告诉你，这是一个巨大的飞跃。这是一件完全不同的事情。是的，完全不同。
Yeah. Well, Sandy, thank you for your time. I know this has been an interesting discussion looking ahead at 2024 and kind of what we saw in 2023. Do you have any closing remarks or anything that you'd like to close out with?
嗯，嗯。好的，Sandy，非常感谢你的时间。我知道这次讨论了2024年的前景以及我们在2023年所看到的情况，真的很有意思。你有没有什么总结性的发言或者想要做个总结？
I think that 2024 is going to be kind of a, like I said, a watershed year. This is where people I think are going to either come to grips with the fact that, hey, you know what, the ice engine is dead. Yeah, there may be applications for something like a hybrid or something for a while. But to me, a hybrid is going to be the pet rock of the future.
我认为2024年将成为一个重要转折年，正如我之前所说的。在那一年，人们将逐渐认识到内燃机已经过时了。当然，可能会在一段时间内还有一些混合动力的应用。但对我来说，混合动力车将成为未来的过时事物，就像宠物岩一样。
I mean, people that will have them and whatnot. Sometimes people like to grasp at the good old days. They like to say that, well, we can, let's get back to the good old days. Well, first off, the good old days weren't all that good because I'm old and I know what the good old days were. And the second thing is, I just don't think that, I don't think that no, I don't think anyone really wants to go backwards.
我是说，会有人带起这个话题之类的。有时候人们喜欢怀念过去的美好时光。他们喜欢说，嗯，让我们回到那个美好的时代吧。嗯，首先，那些美好的时光并不都那么美好，因为我年纪大，我知道过去的美好时光是怎样的。其次，我只是觉得，我觉得没有人真正想要倒退。
I think what we want to see is what's the future. And that's why I think that the cyber truck from a styling standpoint definitely looks like the future. And from a technology standpoint, it really is the future. I mean, that's what people are going to want. Whether everybody runs around inside of a cyber truck, I doubt that very much.
我认为我们想要看到的是未来。这就是为什么我认为从造型角度来看，Cybertruck绝对看起来像未来的原因。而从技术角度来看，它确实代表了未来。我的意思是，这是人们想要的东西。不过，是否每个人都会在Cybertruck里四处奔跑，我非常怀疑。
Whether it affects the, like when the tourists came out in the 80s, everybody wanted a jelly bean. Instantly, that car, everybody wanted that vehicle, right? And it had a giant effect all the way around the world. Everybody went from one brick sitting on top of another brick to the jelly bean, the swoopy, curvy, whatever kind of model. I don't think you're going to see that with cyber truck. I don't think that that's going to happen. I don't think everybody's going to immediately dance into that kind of a product. But I think it's going to have some kind of impact. Yeah.
无论它是否会产生影响，就像80年代游客涌入时，每个人都想要一颗果冻豆。那辆车，每个人都想要那辆车，对吧？它在全球范围内产生了巨大的影响。每个人都从一个砖块叠加在另一个砖块上的状态转变为了果冻豆，那种弯曲、流线型的车型。我不认为你会在Cybertruck上看到这种情况。我不认为那会发生。我不认为每个人会立即跃跃欲试购买这种产品。但我认为它会有某种影响。是的。
Yeah. It's interesting. I'm very curious to see how 2024 unfolds with the elections, right? That impacts regulatory and a number of other things, just economy in general. So it'll be interesting, but I know we'll be tracking it closely. If you are interested in anything else that Monroe does, certainly we have reports for sale. And we do work with a lot of these OEMs to help them solve these issues and focus on that psychology piece that we're talking about.
是的，很有趣。我非常好奇2024年的选举将如何展开，对吧？这将影响监管政策和其他很多方面，总体上对经济也会产生影响。所以这会很有趣，但我知道我们会密切跟踪这一情况。如果你对门罗公司的其他任何事情感兴趣，我们当然有报告出售。我们也与很多原始设备制造商合作，帮助他们解决这些问题并专注于我们正在谈论的心理因素。
Obviously, we have to be in tune with technology, but psychology at the end of the day is really what makes or breaks some of these companies culturally speaking, and ultimately their profitability. So if you are interested, contact us at sales at liendesign.com. And other than that, we'll stay in touch with you throughout the rest of the year. So thanks, everyone. Thanks, Sandy.
显然，我们必须与科技保持同步，但从文化角度来说，心理学才是真正决定一些公司成败，最终决定它们的盈利能力的因素。因此，如果您对此感兴趣，请通过sales@liendesign.com与我们联系。除此之外，我们还将在今年的余下时间与您保持联系。感谢大家的支持，谢谢Sandy。
There's one more thing. One more thing. Okay. So our cyber trucks are coming through, and we're going to be getting them shortly. The cyber trucks are going to be coming in, and we are going to be tearing them apart, one of them anyway. One of them is going to be mine, but one will be torn to pieces, and we will be filming it. We will be analyzing, and then we'll be costing weight. Every material, science, everything comes in in those reports. So they'll be coming down the pike here shortly. So the good news is that we will be working on that. Hopefully we'll get it done by the end of the first quarter. Yeah. Excited to get our hands on it. Thanks, Sandy. Yeah. Okay.
还有一件事。还有一件事。好的。我们的电动卡车马上就会到货了。电动卡车即将到来，我们将会拆解其中的一辆。其中一辆将属于我，但另一辆将被拆散，我们会拍摄这个过程。我们会对其进行分析，然后评估成本和重量。每个材料、科学等所有报告都会被考虑进去。它们很快就会到来。好消息是，我们将会开展相关工作。希望在第一季度结束前完成。是的。非常期待能拿到它。谢谢，Sandy。好的。
So that was the thing. So we do not need any cyber trucks from anybody. There's like 350 people that have sent me notes, and we couldn't do anything because we, our lawyers couldn't figure out what would happen if we did take one of those cyber trucks and do what we needed to do. I don't want to be a scab, kind of a guy, and basically piss off the guys at Tesla. I don't want Elon as an enemy. So we have our cyber trucks coming up. And so thank you very much for sending all your notes in, and anybody that bought one of those little bottle opener things. Thank you so much. We still have them, but we really are now on the way, and we'll be getting these trucks are going to cost $120,000 a pop. And I don't know how much the taxes and delivery fees are going to be, but if you buy those pop bottle openers, that'll help us out a smidge. So anyway.
那就是事情的情况。所以我们不需要别人的Cyber Truck。大约有350人给我发来了短信，但我们无能为力，因为我们的律师无法弄清楚如果我们拿了其中一辆Cyber Truck并做我们需要做的事情会发生什么。我不想成为那种背叛同事的人，惹恼特斯拉的员工。我不想让埃隆成为我的敌人。所以我们的Cyber Truck即将到货。非常感谢大家给我们的所有留言，并且感谢那些购买了那些小瓶开器的人。我们现在确实会开始行动，这些卡车的价格要120,000美元，至于税费和运费我不知道会是多少，但如果你购买那些瓶开器，那会对我们有些帮助。无论如何。
Excellent. Thank you. Thanks, everyone. Thanks for tuning in. Appreciate it. Bye-bye.
太棒了。谢谢你们。谢谢大家的参与。感谢收听。非常感激。再见。