Hertz Cuts Back Tesla Fleet, Giga Berlin Production Pause, Cybertruck Deliveries

Hey everybody Rob Maor here and today we've got an update on Gigabrelin news on the Cyber Truck as well as Hertz's EV program and a few other items as well. Tesla stock on the day today was down 2.9% to close at $227.22, a little bit tougher of a day for automakers in general, but the NASDAQ despite its volatility finishing flat on the day. We'll talk quickly about CPI, which was of course released this morning so the consumer price index came in a little bit higher than expected. As we can see, we capped by Bloomberg, month over month, headline CPI came in at 3.10% vs. 2.10% expected, with core CPI, so excluding food and energy coming in roughly in line with expectations month over month, and the year over year changes for both coming in 1.2% to 2.10% higher than expected. Following the report though, interest rate expectations for January or March largely unchanged from the CME Group FedWatch tool and actually leaning slightly more towards earlier rate cuts than a day ago.

大家好，我是Rob Maor，今天我们会向大家更新Gigabrelin的Cyber Truck以及Hertz的电动车计划等几个项目的最新消息。特斯拉股票当天下跌了2.9%，收盘价为227.22美元，对于整个汽车制造商来说，今天是一个有些艰难的一天，但纳斯达克指数尽管波动不定，收盘价与开盘价相同。我们将简要谈论一下今天早上发布的CPI数据，消费者物价指数比预期略高。如我们可以从彭博社的数据中看到的那样，总CPI按月计算为3.10%，而预期为2.10%，核心CPI（不包括食品和能源）与预期基本一致，按月计算，而年同比变化均超出预期1.2%至2.10%。然而，在报告发布后，CME集团联邦基金市场预期工具对于1月和3月的利率预期基本不变，实际上比一天前更倾向于更早的降息。

All right, moving on to Tesla specific news, one piece of news that we got towards the end of trading that seemed to cause a bit of a dip in the stock before close was a report from Reuters that says that Tesla is going to be pausing production at Giga Berlin for a couple of weeks. They say, quote, Tesla will suspend most car production at its factory near Berlin from January 29th to February 11th. The company said on Thursday, citing a lack of components due to shifts in transport routes because of attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, end quote, those conflicts are not a topic that we have covered previously, but there have been other companies that said that there might be delivery delays on some product because of those conflicts. And although Reuters did not link to any statement directly from Tesla, they say that Tesla said that quote, the armed conflicts in the Red Sea and the associated shifts in transport routes between Europe and Asia via the Cape of Good Hope are also having an impact on production in Grunhadep. The considerably longer transport times are creating a gap in supply chains and quote, so if this report is accurate, I would be surprised if it's not if it's accurate though, this would be about 15% of the quarter for Giga Berlin. I think there's a possibility they could compensate for some of that throughout the rest of the quarter, but from a calendar perspective, that's about what it would be. Of course, though, Giga Berlin is right now relatively small part of Tesla's production capacity, maybe somewhere in the ballpark of 10%. So we're talking about roughly 1.5% of Tesla's quarterly production that this could be affecting. And we're in Q1 right now, which is generally a seasonally weaker quarter in the automotive industry. And while it would certainly be preferable for Tesla to have full control over their production schedule and not be influenced by factors like this, I think the overall impact of this, as it's currently described, is pretty minimal. We'll keep an eye out for further confirmation and updates on the situation.

好的，接下来是特斯拉的特定新闻。交易结束前，我们收到了一条消息，似乎引起了股价的小幅下跌，该消息来自路透社，称特斯拉将在Giga Berlin工厂停产几周。他们称：“特斯拉将于1月29日至2月11日期间暂停其靠近柏林的工厂大部分汽车生产。”该公司在周四表示，此举是因为由于红海船只遭到袭击，货船运输路线发生变化，导致零部件短缺。虽然我们以前没有报道过这些冲突，但其他公司表示这些冲突可能导致产品交付延迟。虽然路透社没有直接引用特斯拉的任何声明，但他们说特斯拉表示：“红海地区的武装冲突和由此引起的欧洲与亚洲之间通过好望角的运输路线转移，也对Grunhadep的生产产生影响。长时间的运输时间在供应链中产生了断档。”所以如果这份报告准确无误，如果准确的话，这将是Giga Berlin季度产能的约15%。我认为他们可能会在本季度的其余时间里进行一些补偿，但从时间上看，大约是这样。当然，Giga Berlin目前在特斯拉的产能中所占比重相对较小，可能在10%左右。所以我们讨论的大约是特斯拉季度产能的约1.5%可能受到影响。而现在我们正处于Q1季度，这通常是汽车行业的淡季。虽然特斯拉无疑更希望完全掌控他们的生产计划，不受这样的因素影响，但据目前描述的情况来看，整体影响是相当小的。我们将继续关注进一步的证实和情况更新。

Alright, in more exciting news, we do have some Cybertruck updates today. Over the last 24 hours or so, there have been numerous reports of customers that have no affiliation, truly no affiliation this time, not employees, or other various ties to the company that are now receiving vehicle identification numbers for their Cybertruck orders. Furthermore, we've even got a report on the Cybertruck Owners Club forums from Suzu 2142 that today they received a call from the Sunnyvale California Tesla store that their all wheel drive Cybertruck is ready for pickup today, January 11. They say it is scheduled for 3 30 pm Pacific time today. I'm not quite there yet. As I'm recording this, by the time this is published, we'll probably pass that so we'll keep an eye on this. But they did share a screenshot from the Tesla app that does show their delivery being scheduled for today again at 3 30. They shared that they received their vehicle identification number yesterday. They also shared the Cybertruck order agreement. There's always a chance of people photo shopping or whatever else to try to have some fun and trick some people. But from all the information that is being shared, it seems pretty legitimate. We'll continue to watch this closely and hopefully by tomorrow we'll have some evidence to be able to confirm this. And if there really is one delivery happening now, then there are probably many others that aren't too far behind. We've already got some great Cybertruck insight from a number of videos so far, but it's going to be really exciting to see these in normal customers' hands. We'll get a lot more data, a lot more insight on this crazy vehicle and start seeing them around more, which is exciting as well.

好吧，更令人兴奋的消息是，我们今天有一些Cybertruck的更新。在过去的24小时左右，有许多没有任何关联（真的没有任何关联），不是员工或其他与该公司相关的关系的客户报告称，他们现在已经收到了他们Cybertruck订单的车辆识别号码。而且，我们甚至在Cybertruck车主俱乐部论坛上收到了一份来自Suzu 2142的报告，称他们今天接到了来自加利福尼亚阳光谷特斯拉店的电话，说他们的全驱动Cybertruck已经准备好今天，1月11日去提车。他们说计划在今天太平洋时间下午3点30分进行交付。我还没有掌握最新情况。我录制这段视频的时候，发布时可能已经过去了，所以我们会继续关注这个情况。但他们确实分享了一张来自特斯拉应用的截图，显示他们的交付时间再次安排在今天下午3点30分。他们还分享了昨天收到的车辆识别号码和Cybertruck订单协议。当然，总有人可能对图片进行编辑或其他花招来开些玩笑，愚弄一些人。但从目前分享的所有信息来看，似乎相当真实。我们将继续密切关注此事，并希望明天能有一些证据来证实这一点。如果现在确实正在进行交付，那么可能还有很多其他交付即将进行。到目前为止，我们已经通过许多视频获得了一些有关Cybertruck的信息，但看到这些车交到普通客户手中将是非常令人兴奋的。我们将获得更多数据，更多关于这辆疯狂车辆的了解，并开始在更多地方看到它们，这也是令人兴奋的。

All right, next up, we've got a new SEC filing relevant to Tesla that was filed by Hertz today. This may have had an influence a bit on the stock as well. The Hertz filing announced that Hertz has made the decision to sell approximately 20,000 electric vehicles from their US fleet about one third of their global EV fleet over the course of this year. While they do say this will cover multiple makes and models, of course, primarily their electric fleet is comprised of Tesla vehicles after their announcement of a massive order plan for Tesla vehicles a couple of years ago.

好的，接下来，我们有一份新的有关特斯拉的证券交易委员会（SEC）文件，今天由赫兹（Hertz）提交。这可能对股票也产生了一些影响。赫兹的提交宣布，赫兹已经决定在今年销售大约20,000辆电动汽车，相当于他们全球电动汽车车队的三分之一。虽然他们确实说这些车型将涵盖多个品牌和型号，但主要是特斯拉汽车。这是在几年前宣布大规模订购特斯拉汽车后，他们的电动车队主要由特斯拉汽车组成的。

Essentially, their goal here is to right size their fleet. They think it's become too EV heavy. So they say they expect to reinvest a portion of the proceeds of the sale of these EVs into the purchase of ICE vehicles. So it's unfortunate, kind of a frustrating update, but if you remember the previous quarterly earnings call from Hertz, which we talked about pretty extensively, this is certainly not coming without warning or any sort of a major surprise given the updates at that time. So this is a big part of their EV fleet, but they do still have a large EV fleet remaining. And they do note that they'll continue to execute their strategy around EV mobility. So it's not like they're completely exiting this business or anything. They just think that they went a little too far a little too fast.

从根本上说，他们在这里的目标是调整他们的车队规模。他们认为电动汽车过于多了。因此，他们表示预计将出售这些电动汽车的一部分收益用于购买内燃机车辆。所以这是不幸的、令人沮丧的更新，但是如果你还记得赫兹之前的季度收益电话会议，我们之前讨论得非常多，这并不是没有预警或者任何重大意外的情况。所以这是他们电动汽车车队的一个重要部分，但是他们确实还有一个庞大的电动汽车车队，并且他们指出他们将继续执行围绕电动汽车出行的战略。所以并不是说他们完全退出这个业务或其他什么，只是他们认为他们进展得有点太快了。

As we talked about from that last earnings call, they were experiencing pretty heavy depreciation because of the pricing action that Tesla and others took on EVs. So there's a little bit of buying at the high selling at the low here for Hertz. Not that EV prices won't continue to come down, but probably not quite as rapidly as what we've seen during this period. And these vehicles one to two years in ownership are probably taking the steepest part of the depreciation curve during that window. So that depreciation increased their cost structure more than they expected. And they also saw higher damage and repair costs than what they initially modeled for, which we'll talk about more in a second.

正如我们在上次收益电话中讨论的那样，由于特斯拉和其他企业对电动汽车采取的定价措施，他们正在经历相当大的折旧。因此，赫兹此处的买高卖低有点多。不是说电动车价格不会继续下降，但可能不会像我们在这段时间内看到的那样迅速下降。而且，这些车辆在拥有一到两年后的折旧曲线可能是最陡的。因此，折旧增加了他们的成本结构，超出了他们的预期。而且，他们看到的损坏和维修成本也比最初的模型高，这个问题我们稍后再详细讨论。

Their CEO did go on CNBC today and shared some comments around this announcement. A couple of notable things he commented on their partnership with Uber, which of course a lot of Tesla vehicles involved in that. He said that's been very strong. So this is more coming from the rental side of the Hertz business. And although as I mentioned, they are saying higher damage or repair costs, he also did say that there are differences between how an EV would be used in a rental fleet and how it would be used for an actual EV owner said quote, there are those that experiment and their knowledge of how to drive this car, which is a little different than a combustion engine car may be part of the issue. And quote, as you may remember, one of the critical details that we highlighted from the Hertz earnings call where this conversation began was there mentioned that quote, studies of current EV ownership evidenced lower incidents of damage and collision than for ICE vehicles, not higher as we are experiencing. End quote. So this shouldn't be seen as an indictment of EVs being inferior or more expensive, etc. At least part of what they are experiencing is unique to the rental market where you have people that are maybe less familiar driving these vehicles. In many cases, maybe for the first time that could be unfamiliar with EVs could be unfamiliar with the acceleration. And maybe don't quite care as much about being careful because it is a rental not something that they don't.

今天他们的CEO确实在CNBC上发表了一些关于这一宣布的评论。他评论了他们与Uber的合作，当然很多特斯拉汽车参与了其中。他表示这个合作非常强大。所以这更多地来自赫兹业务的租赁方面。虽然如我所提到的，他们声称出现了更高的损坏或维修成本，他还表示在租赁车队中使用电动汽车和个人的使用方式之间存在差异，他说："有些人探索这种车的驾驶方式，这与燃油发动机车辆有些不同，这可能是问题的一部分。"正如你们可能还记得的那样，我们从赫兹的盈利电话会议中突出的关键细节之一是提到："目前的电动汽车拥有率研究显示，损害事故的发生率低于燃油汽车，而不是像我们正在经历的那样更高。"所以不能将此视为对电动汽车优劣或更昂贵的指责。至少在他们所经历的部分情况是租赁市场特有的，那里的人可能对这些车辆不太熟悉。许多情况下，他们可能是第一次使用这种车型，对电动汽车不太熟悉，对加速度不熟悉，也可能不太注重小心谨慎，因为这是一辆租赁车而不是他们自己的车辆。

Except for that piece, which is really just the nature of the business over time as EV familiarity in general grows, some of those impacts that Hertz is seeing should diminish their CEO did say that quote, at some point the reality of EVs and Tesla's being the best selling car will at some point render them the best rental car. End quote. He just said for Hertz and how they have invested so far, it's not quite there yet. Now I do think there are a number of things that could be done to improve these from a consumer education perspective, from a business modeling perspective, and advertising perspective, a lot of things I think they could properly do better. We don't need to go into all those things, but ultimately up to Hertz to decide how to manage those things. Anyway, hopefully some of those details are helpful. This was a pretty widely reported story to that.

除了那一点，这只是随着时间推移，随着电动车的普及率不断增加，这是业务本身的自然演变。一些赫兹所面对的影响应该会减少，他们的首席执行官也说过：“某个时刻，电动车和特斯拉成为最畅销的汽车，也让它们成为最佳的租赁车辆。”他只是说赫兹目前在投资方面还没有完全达到这个目标。我认为从消费者教育、商业模式和广告角度来看，有很多事情可以做得更好。我们不需要详细讨论所有这些事情，但最终由赫兹来决定如何处理这些问题。希望这些细节能有所帮助。这是一个被广泛报道的故事。

Next, we've got a report from Bloomberg that Tesla has given notice to workers in Fremont that all US production associates, materials handlers, and quality inspectors will be getting a quote, market adjustment pay increase end quote. Of course, this would be widely expected following the completion of UAW negotiations at the end of last year. And we've seen other reports of Tesla offering pay increases we talked recently about one for Gigabro lint. So not too surprising and probably the most interesting detail would be how significant these pay increases are. But Bloomberg says that the document that they viewed did not say how big the increase would be.

接下来，我们从彭博社获得了一份报告，提到特斯拉已通知费里蒙特的工人-所有美国的生产助理，物料处理人员和质量检查员将获得市场调整的薪资增加。当然，在去年底UAW（美国汽车工人联合会）的谈判完成后，这是被广泛预期的。我们也看到了特斯拉提供薪资增加的其他报告，我们最近就谈到了Gigabro lint的一份报告。因此，这并不令人意外，可能最令人感兴趣的细节是这些薪资增加有多大。但彭博社说，他们查看的文件并未详细说明增幅有多大。

Next, we've got a few quick updates from X first one on Tesla energy from the Tesla megapack account, which has announced the commissioning of a 565 megawatt hour megapack project in capoei Hawaii. Always nice to see those, especially on islands where energy storage just seems to be such a no brainer.

接下来，我们从X的首个新闻中得到了一些快速的更新，关于特斯拉能源来自特斯拉超级电池组的账户。该账户宣布在夏威夷的卡波伊启用了一个565兆瓦时的超级电池组项目。在能源储存显得如此毫不费力的岛屿上，看到这样的项目总是令人愉悦的。

We've then got a couple small updates on the Highland Model 3, which Elon was actually asked about on X where that name came from. He replied and said it's not real, and then he actually got community noted on this one because there are references to Highland in the electronic parts catalog for Tesla. Maybe it became that way after people talked about it so much, or maybe Elon's just saying it's not realized that's actually not the name of the new Model 3, just an internal name. That's probably my best guess, but not really of much consequence here. Anyway, we are starting to see Highland Model 3 show up in Tesla stores first in California. And like for the Cybertruck, a better theater is keeping a running list of where these Highland vehicles have been spotted in Tesla stores. So keep an eye on that. If you're interested, I would imagine this becomes more ubiquitous at Tesla stores pretty quickly than the Cybertruck.

接下来，关于Highland Model 3有一些小的更新，有人在X节目上问埃隆这个名字的来历。他回答说这个名字并不是真实存在的，但因为特斯拉的电子零件目录中有对Highland的提及，他实际上为此事发表了一则社区记录。也许这是在人们讨论这个名字之后才变成这样的，或者埃隆只是在表示这个名字实际上并不存在，只是一个内部名字。这可能是我最好的猜测，但对于现在并没有太大的影响。无论如何，我们正在开始看到Highland Model 3首先出现在加利福尼亚的特斯拉店铺中。就像Cybertruck一样，一个更好的影院正在持续更新这些Highland车辆在特斯拉店铺中被发现的地点清单。所以请留意。如果你有兴趣的话，我想这辆车会比Cybertruck更快地在特斯拉店铺中普及开来。

Then the last one from X, one of Tesla's senior software engineers, Clive Chan, announced that he is going to be leaving sounds like the nojo team to work at OpenAI. Never loved to see people leave, but he did comment on dojo to another Tesla engineer saying that the future is bright for dojo. So sometimes people read into the departures like that. I think it's also worth noting that comment could just be a platitude, but also there are plenty of other platitudes that you could go to without being that specific on the project.

然后来自特斯拉高级软件工程师Clive Chan的最后一个消息，他宣布将离开nojo团队，去OpenAI工作。虽然不愿意看到人们离开，但他向另一位特斯拉工程师评论道，dojo的未来光明。因此，有时人们会对这类离职作出解读。我认为值得注意的是，这种评论可能只是一种套话，但也有很多其他套话可以使用，而不必具体提到这个项目。

All right, last couple of things today, we've got some headlines around Toyota and solid state batteries. Again, tell me if you've heard this one before, but Toyota is saying that they will have solid state batteries ready to go in quote unquote a couple of years. This was at the Gujarat summit in India, so the head of Toyota India commenting on this. And I think just probably repeating the announcements that we've heard from Toyota previously and saying that this will enable a vehicle that will charge in 10 minutes have a range of 1200 kilometers or 750 miles with a very good life expectancy. So I don't think anything new here Toyota had most recently said 2027 to 2028. I don't think the couple of years comment is meant to replace that timeline or anything. I think it's just something that was brought up probably among many future things that Toyota wants to do and then is getting picked up and reported on. If I could take the under on the specs in the over on the timeline, I would definitely do those things.

好的，今天的最后几件事，我们有一些关于丰田和固态电池的头条新闻。告诉我你是否之前听过这个，但是丰田表示他们将在“几年内”准备好固态电池。这是在印度古吉拉特峰会上，所以是丰田印度的负责人对此发表的评论。我想这只是重复之前我们从丰田听到的宣布，并表示这将使得电动汽车的充电时间为10分钟，续航里程为1200公里或750英里，同时具有很长的使用寿命。所以我认为在这里没有任何新的东西，丰田最近曾表示2027年至2028年。我认为几年之内的评论并不意味着代替这个时间线，我认为它只是在丰田希望做的许多未来事物中提出，并得到报道。如果我能对规格下注而对时间线押大，我肯定会这样做。

All right, last item for today, then Lucid has reported their Q4 delivery and production numbers. They delivered at 1734 vehicles in the fourth quarter and produced 2391. Both of those were up a bit quarter over quarter remember last quarter production was down because they had 700 vehicles that went over to Saudi Arabia that were nearly finished.

好的，今天最后一项工作是Lucid报告了他们第四季度的交付和生产数据。他们在第四季度交付了1734辆车，生产了2391辆。这两个数字相比上个季度都有所增长，请记住上个季度的生产量下降是因为他们有700辆车将近完成后出口到了沙特阿拉伯。

But from a year over year perspective, production was down 32% deliveries down 10%. The demand constraints that I think Lucid is dealing with are becoming more clear by the quarter using the same calculation that Tesla uses to calculate days of inventory.

从同比角度来看，产量下降了32%，交付量下降了10%。我认为Lucid正在应对的需求约束正在逐季变得更加明确，使用与特斯拉相同的计算方法来计算库存天数。

This would put Lucid at 230 days of inventory about 5,300 vehicles that they have produced that they have not delivered in combination with a slowed production rate well below what their initial targets were. It's really tough to see how they get anywhere close to anything that could be a profitable business when they're losing so much money on each vehicle at the scale they're at. Yeah, they've got the Lucid gravity that will come at some points and maybe that helps a little bit with scale as well. And then they obviously want to make next generation vehicles that are cheaper, but it's very difficult to justify those types of massive investments when you're not able to hit a cost structure that is anywhere close to working so far.

这将使Lucid的库存达到230天左右，大约有5,300辆由他们生产但尚未交付的车辆，再加上生产速度明显低于最初的目标。在这个规模上，每辆车都亏损如此之多，很难看到他们如何能够实现盈利的业务。是的，他们有可能在某个时间点获得Lucid重力效应，或许这也能在一定程度上帮助扩大规模。而且他们显然还想推出更便宜的下一代车型，但是如果你无法达到任何能够有效运作的成本结构，非常难以为这些大规模投资提供合理的理由。

If this didn't have the capital backing from Saudi Arabia, I'm not sure if Lucid would even still be around at the point that we're at right now. So we'll keep watching it, but a pretty bleak picture I think for Lucid.

如果不是沙特阿拉伯提供资本支持，我都不确定Lucid现在还能坚持下来。所以我们会继续观察，但我觉得Lucid的前景相当暗淡。

Alright, that'll wrap it up for today though, so as always, thank you for listening, make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications, and also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday, January 12th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，今天就到这里，所以一如既往，感谢你的聆听，确保你已经订阅并开启了通知，并在X上找到我推出的特斯拉播客。我们将在明天与大家见面，届时是一月十二日星期五的特斯拉日报节目。谢谢。