Markets Weekly January 6, 2024

Hello, my friends. Today is January 6, and this is Markets Weekly. So this week, I want to talk about three things.

大家好，我的朋友们。今天是1月6日，这里是《市场周报》。所以这周，我想谈论三件事情。

First, I've noticed that the participation in the bank term funding program has skyrocketed the past two months. Let's talk about why that's likely happening and speculate as to whether or not the Fed will extend the BTFP after it's set to expire this March.

首先，我注意到过去两个月，银行期限融资计划的参与人数猛增。让我们来谈谈为什么会发生这种情况，并推测美联储在今年三月计划到期后是否会延长银行期限融资计划。

Secondly, this past week was Jobs Friday. We got a lot of data on the labor market. The data is painting a mixed picture. Let's talk about what the data is saying and whether or not we're at a turning point in the labor market.

其次，上周是“工作日”。我们得到了大量关于劳动市场的数据。数据呈现出一幅复杂的画面。让我们来谈谈数据在说什么，以及劳动市场是否已经到了一个转折点。

And lastly, we got some interesting information from the Fed minutes discussing how QT is likely going to be tapered the same way it was the last time around. Let's talk about the potential path for quantitative tightening, going forward, and what it might mean for markets.

最后，我们从美联储会议纪要中得到了一些有趣的信息，讨论了量化紧缩（QT）很可能会以与上次相同的方式逐步减少。让我们来谈谈量化紧缩前进的潜在路径，以及对市场可能意味着什么。

Okay, starting with the BTFP. First, a little bit of history. So the bank term funding program was unveiled last March in response to the panic in the regional banks.

好的，首先从BTFP开始。先来说一点历史。银行期限资金计划于去年三月面世，是为了应对地区银行的恐慌而推出的。

Now, recall Silicon Valley bank bought a whole lot of treasury securities and agency mortgage backsecurities when interest rates were low. And as interest rates rose, was sitting on a lot of unrealized losses. The depositors at SBB saw the tremendous amounts of unrealized losses began to panic and began to withdraw their deposits. This meant that Silicon Valley bank had to sell those securities to meet withdrawals, realizing those losses, and ultimately going bust.

现在回想一下，硅谷银行在利率低的时候购买了大量的国债和机构抵押贷款证券。随着利率的上升，银行面临了大量未实现的损失。SBB的存款人看到了巨额的未实现损失，并开始恐慌，并开始提取他们的存款。这意味着硅谷银行必须出售那些证券以满足取款需求，实现这些损失，并最终破产。

The BTFP was basically specifically designed to address this problem because it was willing to lend against power value rather than market value. So let me break that down a little bit. So a power value is basically what I would receive from a security at maturity. But it's going to be different from market value because it's going to be discounted through the through interest rates. So let's suppose I bought $100 in power value and treasury securities a few years ago when interest rates were low. Now that interest rates have risen. Now, the market is going to discount that power value with higher interest rates. So the market value of that at your security is going to be worth less, let's say $90.

BTFP基本上是专门设计来解决这个问题的，因为它愿意以权力价值为抵押物，而不是市场价值。所以让我来解释一下。权力价值基本上是我在到期时从一项证券所获得的金额。但是它与市场价值不同，因为它会通过利率进行贴现。假设几年前我以100美元的权力价值购买了国库证券，当时的利率很低。现在利率上升了。现在，市场将会以更高的利率贴现该权力价值。因此，该证券的市场价值将变得更低，比如说90美元。

So today, if I take that security and I sell it in the market, I'm going to get $90. If I go and I borrow against it in the repo market, I'm going to borrow $90. But if I take that security and I borrow, if I pledge it at the BTFP, I'm able to borrow $100 because the BTFP lends against power value rather than market value. In a sense, the Fed is basically lending unsecured because in that $100 loan, it's secured by $90 of collateral. The last 10 is just unsecured lending.

所以今天，如果我把那个证券在市场上卖掉，我会得到90美元。如果我去抵押市场借款，我会借到90美元。但是如果我拿着那个证券去抵押，在BTFP贷款，我能借到100美元，因为BTFP根据市场价值而非市场价值提供贷款。在某种程度上，美联储基本上是无担保借贷，因为在这笔100美元贷款中，有90美元的抵押品作为担保，剩下的10美元就是无担保借贷。

Now, historically, central banks really, really, really don't like to lend unsecured. So the BTFP was a honestly a pretty revolutionary facility. And it showed the lengths the Fed was willing to go to to make the regional banking panic go away.

现在，从历史上看，央行真的、真的、真的不喜欢无担保借贷。所以BTFP（Borrowing Term Facility Program）实际上是一个非常具有革命性的机制。它展示了美联储为了消除地区银行恐慌而愿意采取的措施的程度。

Now, the second thing that's interesting about the BTFP was that the lending rates there were below market. In a sense, it was free money. Now, the BTFP was providing one year loans. The loan rate was one year OIS plus 10 basis points.

现在，关于BTFP有趣的第二件事是，贷款利率低于市场价。从某种意义上说，这是免费的钱。现在，BTFP提供一年期贷款。贷款利率是一年期OIS利率加上10个基点。

OIS, one year OIS is basically the markets best guess as to what the path of Fed policy will be over the next year. Now, what's special about OIS plus 10 basis points? Well, historically speaking, OIS plus 10 basis points was roughly equal to interest on reserves. So if you're a bank and you borrowed at OIS plus 10 basis points, you would essentially be borrowing for free. You would be receiving IOR interest on reserves from the Fed and paying OIS plus 10 basis points. And historically, those two interest rates were basically the same.

OIS（隔夜利息互换）是市场对联邦储备政策未来一年走势的最佳猜测。现在，OIS再加上10个基点有什么特别之处呢？从历史角度来看，OIS再加上10个基点大致等于准备利率。因此，如果你是一家银行并以OIS再加上10个基点的利率借款，你实际上是免费借款。你将从联邦储备获得准备金利息并支付OIS再加上10个基点。在历史上，这两个利率基本上是一样的。

So the Fed was basically providing free money to the banking sector. Just one more caveat. So interest on reserves is an overnight rate, whereas OIS is a term rate that approximates the path of Fed policy. So if the market is pricing in rate cuts going forward, the OIS, the one year OIS rate is going to be below interest on reserves. But over the length of that one year term, as we get towards the end of it, the market would have recut, now, if the market was accurate, recuts would have happened. And so interest on reserves would have be below OIS at the time. So at the end of the day, you can think of it as if recarts are priced in that the bank is earning a little bit of interest at the beginning of the loan and having some negative interest income towards the end of the loan. And on average, interest income is zero.

所以，联邦储备系统基本上是向银行业提供免费货币。还有一个注意事项。所以准备金的利息是隔夜利率，而OIS是一种近似联邦政策路径的期限利率。所以，如果市场对未来加息进行定价，那么一年期的OIS利率将低于准备金利息。但在这一年期的到期时，如果市场准确地定价，那么反向调整就会发生。所以，准备金利息将低于OIS。所以最后可以这样理解，如果将反向调整定价，银行在贷款开始时会获得一点利息，而在贷款结束时则会有一些负利息收入。平均来说，利息收入为零。

Okay. Now, anyway, over the past two months, we've noticed a lot of participation in the bank term funding program. So it's right now, it looks like it's risen to about 140 billion. What's going on is that there's renewed strength in the banking sector. Well, it's hard to say that's the case. I mean, if you look at financial conditions, rates have come down, equity market going to the moon, it's likely due to something else. And that's something else is very likely. The fact that the market is pricing in a very, very aggressive round of a rate cuts next this year.

好的。现在，无论如何，在过去的两个月里，我们注意到在银行期限资金计划中有很多参与。因此，现在看来，这个数字已经上升到了大约1400亿。背后的原因是银行业的实力再度增强。嗯，很难说是这个原因。我的意思是，如果你看看金融状况，利率已经下降，股市一路攀升，很可能是因为其他原因。而那个其他原因很可能是市场正在定价今年非常非常激进的一轮降息。

So the Fed had penciled in about three rate cuts in this year. The market has been pricing in about six. So in a sense, if you think that the market is being exuberant in thinking of rate cuts, then basically interest rates are too low. And if you are a bank treasurer, well, you're looking at this and being like, Oh, that's crazy. Fed's not going to cut cut six times. I better go and take advantage of these low rates by borrowing some cheap money. And it looks like some banks are doing just that. From my perspective, it makes total sense, especially because you can pre pay the loan at any time.

那么，美联储预计今年将进行大约三次降息。而市场预计将有大约六次降息。因此从某种意义上说，如果你认为市场对降息的想法过于狂热，那么基本上利率就太低了。如果你是一位银行财务主管，你可能会觉得这很疯狂，因为美联储不会降息六次。我最好利用这些低利率借一些廉价资金来获利。而一些银行似乎正在这么做。从我的观点来看，这完全合乎逻辑，尤其还可以随时提前偿还贷款。

So if you bought if you borrow right now, given that the at these low interest rates and the market actually does. So the Fed actually does cut six times this year. Well, at the end of the day, you got free money. It's a cut if the Fed cuts less than six times. Well, then you got a really good deal because your borrowing rate is on average is going to be a lot lower than what you earn on interest on reserve. So basically you got paid to borrow. And if for whatever reason, the Fed ends up cutting more than six times, you can always pre pay the loan. So it's all in all a really good deal. So no surprise, thanks for taking advantage of this. I think it's just smart management, nothing else.

所以，如果你现在买了或者借贷了，考虑到当前低利率以及市场的实际情况，如果美联储今年确实降息六次，你将得到免费的资金。如果美联储降息次数少于六次，那么你将得到一笔非常划算的交易，因为你的借款利率平均会比你在存款利息上赚的要低很多。基本上，你是被支付了借款费用。而且，如果由于某种原因，美联储最终降息次数超过六次，你总是可以提前偿还贷款。总的来说，这是一笔非常划算的交易。所以毫不奇怪，感谢你利用了这个机会。我认为这只是明智的管理，没什么其他的。

Now that again, moves takes us to the very interesting question as to whether or not the Fed is going to extend the BTFP when it's set to expire this March. Now, to be perfectly clear, financial conditions have ease significantly. There's really no reason for this facility to exist. But on the other hand, this facility has seen increasing interest. Now, from from my experience, the Fed is happy to unwind a program to wind down a program that has no take up in it. And we've seen them do that with the pandemic facilities. But I think they're going to be a bit more thoughtful if they're seeing a program with increasing interest. So this is ultimately going to be about, in a sense, whether or not the Fed wants to have this extra thing there, just kind of has a extra precaution in case markets become volatile again. It's a really, really close call from my perspective. I'm guessing that the Fed is probably going to lean towards renewing this program for a bit simply because my read of the Fed is that they are a pretty, pretty dovish bunch. But I don't really think this has a big impact on one another. Yeah, so we'll see in March.

现在，让我们再次思考一个非常有趣的问题，即美联储是否会在今年三月份到期时延长紧急贷款设施的存在。清楚地说，金融条件已经显著放松，这个设施的存在实际上并没有什么理由。但另一方面，这个设施的利率逐渐上升。根据我的经验，如果某个计划没有被使用，美联储是愿意逐渐减少或取消这个计划的，就像他们对应对疫情的紧急贷款计划一样。但我认为，如果他们看到一个计划受到越来越多的关注，他们可能会更加深思熟虑。因此，这最终可能是关于美联储是否愿意保留这个额外的预防措施，以防市场再次波动。从我的角度来看，这是一个非常艰难的决定。我猜想美联储可能会倾向于延长这个计划，因为我认为美联储是一个相当鸽派的团队。但我不认为这对其他因素产生了很大影响。所以我们拭目以待，等待三月的结果。

Okay, the next thing that I want to talk about is the interesting employment data we got the past week. So we got three pieces of interesting employment data. The first, of course, is the weekly unemployment claims that we get. The second was the monthly non-farm payroll prints. And the third was the employment data from the ISM, which is a monthly survey, in this case of services of the services industry.

好的，接下来我想要谈论的是我们在上周得到的有趣就业数据。所以，我们得到了三份有趣的就业数据。首先，当然是我们每周得到的失业救济申请。第二是每月的非农就业人数数据。第三是来自ISM的就业数据，这是一个每月的调查，针对本例的是服务行业的就业情况。

Now, first, let's look at the continuing and initial and continuing claims. So in the US, when you become unemployed, usually you file unemployment, unemployment claim with the government so that you can collect unemployment benefits. These are initial claims. And you can see there's nothing remarkable here. Now, looking at continuing claims, you can see that over the few months, continuing claims is, you could think of it as the stock rather than flow of unemployment claims. So continuing claims over the past few months ticked up a bit, but zoom out a bit and you'll see that it's still quite low, historically speaking. Now gets us to the really, really interesting and really important non-farm payroll employment print we received on Friday.

现在，首先，让我们来看一下持续和初始的申领和持续的申领。所以在美国，当你失业时，通常你会向政府申请失业金，以便能够领取失业救济金。这些属于初始申领。你可以看到这里没有什么特别的。现在，看一下持续申领，你会看到在过去几个月里，持续申领好像是失业救济申领的库存数量，而不是流动数量。过去几个月，持续申领略微上升了一点，但再放大一些，你会发现相对于历史来说，它还是相当低的。现在我们要谈的是周五发布的非农就业数据，非常非常有趣和非常重要。

Now, the headline obviously was a beat. We created more jobs than expected. But when you look below, it's a little bit less clear. First off, the jobs numbers of the past two months was revised lower. So again, that's dampening things a bit. And secondly, if you look at the labor participation rates, it went down a bit. So although the unemployment rates stayed really low at 3.7%, it seems like a lot of it is because there are fewer people in the labor force. That is to say, fewer people looking for jobs.

现在，显然头条是一个亮点。我们创造的就业岗位超出了预期。但是当你往下看，情况就有点不太清楚了。首先，过去两个月的就业数据被修正为更低。因此，这再次稍微抑制了一些东西。其次，如果你看一下劳动力参与率，它有少许下降。因此，尽管失业率保持在3.7%的低水平，但似乎很大程度上是因为劳动力人数减少。也就是说，找工作的人较少。

Now, if you zoom out a bit and think about what's happened over the past few years, what we've seen is that there's been a surge in labor force participation where high wages drew in a lot of people who were otherwise not really wanting to work. So we saw a prime age labor participation rates, reach participation rate, reach levels that were exceeding pre 2020. It seems to be giving that back a bit possibly because wage growth has cooled a bit. Now, if you look at wage gains, you can see that they're still pretty elevated. They came in higher than expected. So all in all, you have an employment number that in terms of number of jobs created seems to be softening, but wage gains still seem to be at an elevated pace. So it's not super clear.

现在，如果你放大一点思考过去几年发生的事情，我们可以看到劳动力参与度出现了激增，高工资吸引了很多原本不太愿意工作的人。因此，我们看到了主要劳动年龄人口的参与率达到了超过2020年之前的水平。但现在似乎有一些回落的迹象，可能是因为工资增长有所放缓。而如果你看一下工资增长，你会发现它们仍然相当高。它们超过了预期。所以总的来说，就业数据在创造就业岗位数量方面似乎有所软化，但工资增长仍然处于较高水平。所以情况并不是非常清楚。

Now, the third labor data print we want to look at is the ISM services. So the ISM is a diffusion index. So it asks a whole bunch of companies, you know, compared to last month, are things getting better the same or worse? And there's a few different specific topics on this. One of them is the ISM is the employment question. Will they're at where they will ask about employment activity? Now, you can see in this particular index, where 50 being things are the same this month compared to last month, you can see there's been a historic drop in the employment component of the ISM services index. Now, what that means is that more companies, historically high number of companies reported that employment activity in December was lower than November. Again, this is a diffusion index. It shows the direction you're moving, but it doesn't show how much. So having a really, really low employment index print doesn't mean that employment is really low. It just means that a lot of companies reported that employment activity was lower in December, compared to November. It's a directional index. It's not a level index.

现在，我们要看的第三个劳动力数据印刷品是ISM服务业指数。因此，ISM是一个扩散指数。它询问了一大堆公司，与上个月相比，情况是变好了、保持不变还是变糟了？这其中有几个具体的主题。其中一个是ISM的就业问题。他们会询问就业活动的情况。现在，在这个特定指数中，当50意味着本月和上月情况相同时，可以看到ISM服务指数就业组成部分出现了历史性的下降。现在，这意味着有更多的公司报告称，12月份的就业活动低于11月份，是历史上的高点。再次强调，这是一个扩散指数。它显示你移动的方向，但不显示具体数值。因此，非常低的就业指数并不意味着就业率真的很低，只是意味着很多公司报告称12月份的就业活动较11月份有所下降。它是一个指示性指数，而不是一个水平指数。

Now, putting everything together, you're getting as I'm getting a sense at least that the labor market is indeed slowing. Now, at the end of the day, the labor market, like any other market, is about supply and demand. Now, over the past few years, again, a tremendous amount of fiscal stimulus, we got reopening, so we'll suddenly surge in the demand of labor, and we have bunker's job creation. Again, supply matters as well. Again, at a high level, demographically speaking, early before, just isn't growing at the same level that it used to. And we have an aging population, so boomers are retiring. So when looking at the supply of labor, it actually dropped during the pandemic because a lot of boomers retired earlier than expected. But part of that was made up by young people who were participating in the labor force at a higher rate than pre 2020. So again, you had an increase in demand and an increase in supply. Now, right now, it looks like that huge surge in demand is waning. And at the same time, that surge in supply of labor that we've seen is also declining due to a lower labor force participation. So going forward, it does seem to me that the labor market is probably going to be have softer job creation going forward in part due to slowing economy. Again, we were growing above trend. Now we're going, we're slowing down towards trend and the supply of labor, it seems to be declining as well.

现在，把所有东西放在一起，至少我感觉到劳动市场的确在放缓。总的来说，劳动市场和任何其他市场一样，涉及到供求关系。在过去的几年里，我们得到了大量的财政刺激，重新开放，因此劳动需求突然激增，并且我们创造了大量的就业机会。供应也同样重要。从整体上来说，人口层面上，劳动力增长的速度并没有像过去那样。我们有一个人口老龄化问题，所以婴儿潮一代正在退休。因此，在考虑劳动力供应时，实际上在疫情期间减少了，因为许多婴儿潮一代提前退休了。但是，这部分得到了年轻人的弥补，他们参与劳动力市场的速度比2020年前更高。所以，需求和供应都有所增加。现在，看起来需求的大幅增长正在减缓。与此同时，劳动力供应的增长也在下降，这是由于劳动参与率的降低。未来情况来看，劳动市场的就业增长可能会较为疲软，部分原因是经济放缓。我们曾经的增长超过了趋势，现在正在向趋势减缓，而劳动力供应似乎也在下降。

Now, this is actually a really important point for monetary policy. How is the Fed going to read this data? And that's what I'm going to write about this week. I think a lot of it is going to be about the composition of the Fed. And I'm going to look into political donation data and the change in the Fed leadership and come away with an impression that the Fed is probably potentially going to react stronger than expected to to this upcoming labor market slowdown. But yeah, I'll write about it this week.

现在，这对于货币政策来说实际上是一个非常重要的问题。美联储将如何解读这些数据？这就是我本周要写的内容。我认为其中很大一部分将涉及到联邦储备系统的构成。我将研究政治捐款数据以及联邦储备系统领导层的变化，通过这些留下印象，即美联储可能会对即将到来的劳动力市场放缓做出比预期更强烈的反应。但是没错，我将在本周写出相关内容。

Okay, the last thing that I want to talk about is the interesting information we got about quantitative tightening. So this past week, the Fed released their minutes and in the minutes, there's a section of how QT could be winding down.

好的，我想谈的最后一件事是我们收到的关于量化紧缩的有趣信息。所以在过去的一周，美联储发布了他们的会议纪要，其中有关于量化紧缩可能将如何逐渐收缩的部分。

Now, in the section, it notes that several participants were thinking that, you know, we in our principles, we are going to taper QT, which is exactly what the Fed did in 2019. In 2019, as the Fed was winding down QT, earlier in the year, they announced that, hey, we're going to step down the pace of QT. And they did that over a few months and finally ended it later in the year.

在这一部分中，有几位参与者认为，我们在原则上，我们将削减量化宽松计划（QT），这正是联邦储备系统在2019年所做的。在2019年，当联邦储备系统缩减QT时，年初他们宣布，嘿，我们将减缓QT的速度。在几个月的时间里，他们逐渐减少了QT的规模，最终在年底结束了该计划。

Today, QT is proceeding at a historically high rate, a maximum rate of $95 billion a month. It's not actually reaching that rate for a variety of reasons. But that's the maximum rate.

如今，央行正以历史上空前的速度进行量化宽松政策（QT），每月最高达到950亿美元。由于多种原因，实际上并未达到这一速度。但这是最高速度。

Now, going forward, as the Fed is thinking about ending QT, what they're first, what they're saying that they're going to do is that they're going to taper it. So they're going to reduce the pace of it, let it run for a few months, and then finally end it. Now, tapering QT suggests to me that QT is going to be able to go on for some time simply because they're reducing the pace.

现在，展望未来，随着美联储考虑结束量化紧缩（QT）措施，他们首先会采取的行动是逐步减少QT的幅度。他们会减缓QT的速度，让其运行数个月，最终才会完全结束。现在，减少QT的幅度意味着QT还可以继续一段时间，因为他们正在缩减其速度。

So at the moment, the Fed is thinking that the level of reserves in the financial system is really high. And looking at the RFP, still a lot of money in the RFP. So there's really no sign of a scarcity of liquidity in the financial system. So QT can proceed as planned.

目前，美联储认为金融系统的储备水平非常高。观察RFP（即回购协议），依然有很多资金在其中。因此，在金融系统中并没有出现流动性不足的迹象。因此，QT可以按计划进行。

But as I wrote about in my piece last month, it looks like they're likely going to be tapering QT probably sometime towards the end of next year if you look at the overall liquidity situation in the market. And if you look at the current real life space of QT, that seems for my best guess as to what's going to happen. And if you taper QT towards the end of this year, then you end up with a QT end date of some time, maybe in the middle of next year. But we'll see how that evolves.

但正如我在上个月的文章中所写的那样，从整体市场流动性情况来看，他们很可能会在明年底之前开始逐步减少QT。如果你看一下当前QT的实际情况，这似乎是我最好的猜测。如果你在今年年底之前逐步减少QT，那么QT的结束日期可能会是明年中旬。但我们将看到这一情况的发展如何。

We also had one Fed speaker this past week talk about how she would prefer to taper QT once the RFP is at a lower level, which actually suggests a faster taper than I think previously expected. But we'll see how that pans out. That's just one Fed president. And right now, I think it's pretty early in pretty early stages and we'll get more information from the Fed going forward. It's something definitely to watch out for.

我们上周还有一位联邦储备委员会演讲人谈到，她更倾向于在净回购资金（RFP）水平降低时开始缩减量化宽松(QT)，这实际上暗示了比之前预期更快的缩减。但我们将看情况发展。那只是一位联储委员。而现在，我认为目前还处于早期阶段，并且我们将从联储获得更多信息。这绝对是一个需要注意的事情。

Now, what is house is going to affect markets? So again, a faster QT that ends sooner is going to be bullish from markets because that means that there's going to be less upward pressure on interest rates. And if there's less upward pressure on interest rates, then financial assets tend to like that. So the financial assets like low rates.

现在，房价将会对市场产生影响吗？所以，再次，一个更快结束的缩表（减少资产负债表规模）政策将会对市场产生积极的影响，因为这意味着对利率上升的压力会减少。如果利率上升的压力减少，那么金融资产通常会受到青睐。所以，金融资产喜欢低利率。

But right now, it's not super clear to me if a sooner taper means it would be bullish for interest rates. Because if you taper sooner, you could actually potentially extend the length of QT such that the overall decline in the Fed's balance sheet is unchanged, just spread out over time. But it's something that I'll continue to think about and write about in the future.

但就目前而言，我并不确定提前缩减是否会对利率产生利多的影响。因为如果你提早缩减，实际上可能会延长量化宽松计划（Quantitative Tightening，简称QT）的时间长度，使得美联储资产负债表的总体下降保持不变，只是时间上被拉长了。但这是我将来会继续思考并写作的一个话题。

All right, that's all I've prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you're interested in my work, check out my blog at FedGuy.com. And if you're interested in learning more about markets, check out my online courses at centralbanking101.com. All right, guys, talk to you all next week.

好的，今天我准备的就这些了。非常感谢大家的收听。如果你对我的工作感兴趣，请访问我的博客FedGuy.com。如果你对市场有更多的了解，可以去centralbanking101.com参加我的在线课程。好了，下周再与大家交谈。