E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
发布时间 2024-01-06 06:05:58 来源
摘要
(0:00) Bestie intros! Pasty Preppers (4:17) 2024's Biggest Political Winner (13:37) 2024's Biggest Political Loser (19:41) 2024's ...
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I found out about a free bird purchase that is just you were there to help you heard what he bought. Or did I buy pickles the keynote? What was no, no, Saks, you missed this because you're you are a sunbird now. And the rest of us are snowbirds over the holidays, but the three of us have been hanging out skiing, having dinner for a couple of weeks. Can we had a little wives dinner? And one of the wives was complaining about the free birds purchasing.
我发现了一个免费购买飞鸟的消息，只要你在那里，你就可以帮助他购买的东西。或者我是买了泡菜这个要点吗？不是，不是，Saks，你错过了这个，因为你现在已经是太阳鸟了。而我们其他人在假期里是雪鸟，但我们三个人已经一起滑雪、共进晚餐了几个星期。我们能有一个小的太太晚餐吗？其中一位太太在抱怨免费飞鸟的购买。
Oh my God. So free bird, do you have pictures of the radiation suits? I don't have pictures of the radiation. You're trying to find radiation, but radiation suits. I thought you're going to talk about like Breony suits or something. No radiation suits. You know how you went into full scale panic mode and you during COVID and you had your whole outfit, your, your, your hazmat suit, free bird. Just because he's panicked about nuclear proliferation has bought suits for his entire family, thousands of dollars of radiation suits and nuclear fallout. And he bought one for his dog.
我的天啊。飞鸟，你有防辐射服的照片吗？我没有防辐射服的照片。你在寻找辐射，但是防辐射服。我还以为你要谈谈像布赖尼套装之类的东西呢。没有防辐射服。你知道在COVID期间你进入全副武装的恐慌模式，你的整套服装，你的，你的，你的防护服，飞鸟。只因为他对核扩散感到恐慌，所以他为他的整个家庭购买了数千美元的防辐射服和核辐射降尘服。他还给他的狗买了一件。
Dogs, dogs, dogs, dogs, for Monty and Daisy. I should send you guys the photo of the dog. A bunker. I mean, I've got it all taken care of a bunker first, right? I think that's underway as well. How do you get to your bunker free bird with with the pilots that you'll be asking to leave their families? Well, you'll be protecting them with the guns that were stolen from your house. At least you'll have the thousands of pickles you've made. And the ones of I didn't know Friedberg was a prepper. Did you know this sex? Because sex has a little prepper. No, sex, Friedberg was howling because he was so mad. He made like thousands and thousands of pickles and nobody would eat them, including himself. Because they were so terrible. You literally bought a radiation pod for your dogs.
狗，狗，狗，狗，为了蒙蒂和黛西。我应该给你们发狗的照片。一个避难所。我的意思是，我已经为一个避难所做好了一切准备，对吧？我觉得那也在进行中。你们要怎样才能到达你们的避难所，自由的鸟儿，和那些你将要要求离开家人的飞行员们一起？嗯，你将会用从你家里偷来的枪来保护他们。至少你会有成千上万的泡菜可以吃了。我不知道弗里德伯格是一个备灾者。你知道这个吗？因为色情片有点像备灾者。不，性爱，弗里德伯格是因为他非常生气所以吼叫。他做了成千上万的泡菜，却没人愿意吃，包括他自己。因为他们太难吃了。你竟然买了一个辐射舱给你的狗。
Yeah, so that's their air filter on the right so that they don't breathe in and you clear a fallout. Cloud. I kind of like the prepping. Thank you, sir. Yeah, it's good. You guys don't understand. There's a reason evolution happens in moments of what we call punctuated equilibrium. There's a massive event and certain, you know, things survive. And then that becomes the proliferant species going forward. This is the moment. Be ready to sing paranoid, rich white guys are going to survive the nuclear holocaust. That's what you're saying. Paranoid, rich white tech guys are going to make it to the other side. Got it. How exciting. I do. What a great future for the future. It's your mom. I would rather die. It touches my erogenous zones. Just the idea that when sacks and free burger, the only two reproductive males left. Can you imagine the gene pool? It's like literally this is like some dystopian science fiction. This is like a black mirror episode. You'll have the pastiest preppers in the world. Pasty preppers to inherit the earth. It's like your winter ride.
是的，这是他们的空气过滤器，在右边，这样他们就不会呼吸进来，同时你可以清除辐射尘云。我有点喜欢这种预备。谢谢，先生。是的，很好。你们不明白，进化发生在我们所谓的决断平衡时刻是有原因的。发生了一场巨大的事件，某些事物幸存下来。然后这些幸存者就会成为未来的繁衍物种。现在就是这个时刻。准备好唱《妄想狂》吧，只有富有的白人家伙能在核大屠杀中幸存下来。这就是你们的意思。妄想狂的、富有的技术家伙会活下去。明白了。多么令人兴奋的未来啊。你是我的妈妈。我宁愿死。这让我兴奋到了敏感地带。只有萨克斯和弗里伯格这两个有繁殖能力的男性幸存下来，你能想象基因库是什么样子吗？就像是某个反乌托邦科幻小说。这就像是一集《黑镜》的剧情。未来地球上将有最苍白的预备人士。血统苍白的人将继承地球。就像你的冬季之旅。
Rain man, David. And we open source it to the fans and they've discovered the reason. I'm going to be a queen of queen. Welcome back to the program, everybody. It is the new year, but it's the same squad. Your four besties are here. Shamaf Polyhop, Petiya. He is now not just the dictator. He is chairman dictator, calling in from the slopes with his beautiful Bert sweater. That's a great sweater. Major colonel that going on there and we have David Friedberg also looks like he's on the slopes and he is wearing his Ohalo, his Ohalo, not Mahalo. Ohalo hat is branding here on the all in podcast, sneaking a little branding for his new startup that he is the CEO of. David sacks is with us, of course, and he cleaned up. You cleaned up a little bit here. The hair was getting out of control. We had a lot of commentary on the hair. Apparently you cleaned up shop. I pivoted from the Jefferson to the Gecko.
雨男，大卫。我们将其开源给粉丝们，他们发现了原因。我将成为女王的女王。欢迎大家回到节目中。虽然已经是新的一年，但我们的团队依旧完整。我们的四个最好的朋友都在这里。Shamaf Polyhop，Petiya。他现在不仅是独裁者，还是主席独裁者，从山坡上打电话，穿着他漂亮的Bert毛衣。那真是一件很棒的毛衣。我们还有大卫·弗里德伯格，看起来他也处在山坡上，戴着他的Ohalo帽子，而不是Mahalo。Ohalo hat成为我们的节目品牌，他在这个全新的初创企业担任CEO。当然，戴维·萨克斯也与我们同在，你有点整齐了。之前头发有点乱，我们对头发进行了很多评论。显然你整理了一下形象。我从杰斐逊转向了蜥蜴人。
All right. So everybody loves when we do our predictions. And so we're going to start off 2024, big year for us. We got a lot going on here and all in. And we're going to just do some predictions here. So let's get started. We're going to kick it off with sacks doing his prediction for the biggest political winner in 2024. So who do you have? What's your prediction for who's going to be the biggest winner in 2024? We're bracing. Yeah. Well, you're going to love this, J-Cal, but my prediction for biggest political winner in 2024 is Vladimir Putin.
好的。所以每个人都喜欢我们预测的时候。所以我们要开始2024年了，这对我们来说是个重要的年份。我们这儿有很多事情，全都涉及其中。我们只是要做些预测。那么，让我们开始吧。我们将以萨克斯（Sacks）对2024年最大的政治赢家的预测为开端。那么你认为谁会是2024年最大的赢家？我们拭目以待。嗯，你会喜欢这个，J-Cal，但我预测2024年最大的政治赢家是弗拉基米尔·普京。
2023 last year was the year that Putin turned it all around. He stabilized his economy after the West attempt to sanction him to his knees, tried to collapse his economy. We issued basically an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. He has gained the upper hand militarily in Ukraine. I think that 2024 will be a year of him consolidating gains in Ukraine, potentially making new gains. I think that the stalemate narrative that our media has propagated about Ukraine will be exposed as a lie. I think the Russians are in fact winning that war. And what you're seeing is that his successful stance against the West in Ukraine has only made him more influential throughout the global South and in the BRICS countries, countries that oppose American dominance and dollar hegemony see him as the man with a plan, as a bit of a conquering hero. And I think as Project Ukraine falls apart in 2024, it's only going to reinforce that sense that he's the big winner.
2023年成为普京彻底扭转局势的一年。在西方试图通过制裁将他的经济摧毁到崩溃边缘时，他稳定了经济。国际刑事法院实际上发布了对他的逮捕令。在乌克兰问题上，他在军事上取得了上风。我认为2024年将是他巩固在乌克兰所取得收益并有可能获得新收益的一年。我认为我们媒体对乌克兰的僵局说法将被揭露为谎言。实际上，俄罗斯人正在赢得这场战争。他在乌克兰对抗西方的成功立场使他在全球南方和金砖国家的影响力更大。那些反对美国主导和美元霸权的国家把他视为拥有计划的人，一个稍微有些征服英雄的人。我认为当乌克兰项目在2024年瓦解时，这将进一步强化人们对他作为大赢家的观感。
Sex, did you see that Argentina said they're not going to join BRICS? And that some have said that was a bit of a blowback on the BRICS effort to end dollar hegemony. And do you think it's really impactful? Or is it just a one off? I think it's a one off. I mean, Mille won in a big surprise there because the country's economy has been such a basket case and he is very pro American, pro Israel, pro West. And so he has distance Argentina from BRICS. But I think that's a little bit of a one off. The larger issue is that the whole global South now is really resisting the collective West in a number of different ways. And so our influence and dominance is slowly declining across the world. And there's many examples of that. So we can get into it throughout the show.
你看到阿根廷说他们不打算加入金砖国家吗？有人说这对金砖国家结束美元霸权的努力是一个挫折。你认为这真的有影响力吗？还是只是一次事件？我认为这只是一次事件。我的意思是，米尔受到巨大的意外胜利，因为该国经济一直是个烂摊子，而他非常亲美、亲以色列、亲西方。因此，他让阿根廷远离了金砖国家。但我认为这只是个别案例。更大的问题是，整个全球南方现在都在以不同的方式反抗西方集体。因此我们的影响力和主导地位在全球范围内正在慢慢下降，有许多例子可以证明。所以我们可以在节目中详细讨论这个问题。
Just to be clear with the audience, you're not rooting for Putin here. You're just predicting he's the biggest winner. I'm not rooting for it to happen. I've got other answers here that I think are negatives as well. I wish we had made a peace deal and avoided the Seoul Ukraine war. I think that was a gigantic mistake by the West. Yeah. So yeah, we've been clear about that. Yeah. We have put Putin in this position to be the victor because we plunged into a war without thinking it through. And the truth is we can't give Ukraine enough aid to have them actually win this war. So we've contributed massively to Putin being this victor. And, you know, it was Fiona Hill, who is a Russia hawk in the foreign policy establishment, who pointed out in a speech, I think over the past year, that the global South is using this Ukraine war as a proxy to rebel against the West. So in the same way that we're using Ukraine as a proxy against Russia, she said the global South was using Russia as a proxy against the West as a way to basically dethrone American hegemony all over the world. And that's a very negative trend.
只是为了让观众清楚，你并不支持普京。你只是预测他是最大的赢家。我并不希望这种情况发生。我还有其他消极的答案。我希望我们能达成和平协议，避免乌克兰战争。我认为这是西方的一个巨大错误。是的，所以我们已经清楚表达了这一点。是的，我们使普京处于这个胜利者的位置，因为我们没有深思熟虑就陷入了战争。事实是，我们不能提供足够的援助给乌克兰来真正赢得这场战争。所以我们极大地促使了普京成为这个赢家。而且，你知道，是费奥娜·希尔在外交政策界中一个对俄罗斯强硬的人在过去的一年中指出，全球南方利用乌克兰战争作为反抗西方的代理方式。就像我们把乌克兰当作反对俄罗斯的代理一样，她说全球南方利用俄罗斯作为反对西方的代理方式，并试图推翻美国在全球范围内的霸权地位。这是一种非常消极的趋势。
So if you had Ukraine and Putin in under seven minutes for this episode, if you bet the under, you win. Freeburg, who's your prediction for the biggest political winner in politics for 2024? I'm going to go with independent third party in the US. We saw the stats last week. I think we reviewed them with a poll that showed that 60 plus percent of people are claiming interest in a third party or an independent effort outside of the traditional damn Republican split. And if you look at in 1992, Ross Perot got 18 to 19 percent of the general election vote. RFK Jr is obviously running on an independent ticket this year. We'll see if you can even get on the ballot in a bunch of states. But I think that whether it's him or the interest in developing a third party in the US that there may be a big winner this year that challenges the traditional two party split in this country.
如果你在本集中猜测乌克兰和普京，时间低于七分钟，若你下注低于这个时间，你就赢了。弗里伯格，对于2024年政界最大的赢家，你有什么预测？我会选择美国的独立第三党。上周我们看到了一项调查数据，显示60％以上的人对第三党或者独立派表示兴趣，超过传统的共和党和民主党的分裂。而且在1992年，罗斯·佩罗获得了18至19％的总选票。今年，罗伯特·F·肯尼迪显然是作为独立候选人参选。我们将看到他能否成功进入许多州的选票。但我认为，无论是他还是美国对发展第三党的兴趣，今年可能会出现一个挑战这个国家传统两党分裂的大赢家。
All right. And Chamath, who do you got for your biggest political winner in 2020? Independent centrists. I think this election starts the breakdown of the two parties. Same same. Look at that. RFK this week actually just got added to the Utah ballot. I think that this could be the most meaningful long lasting change that we see in American politics.
好的。Chamath，你认为2020年最大的政治赢家是谁？独立的中间派。我认为这次选举将开启两个政党的崩溃。一样一样的。这周，RFK实际上被加入到了犹他州的选票中。我认为这可能是我们在美国政治中看到的最有意义、最持久的变化。
This is from from the RFK candidacy. I mean, how many people do you guys know that we're Republicans that don't want to be Republicans anymore or we're Democrats and don't want to be Democrats anymore? It's really like most so many people. I know more of the latter. I know more of the latter actually than I do. Right. Yeah, that's true too. Yeah, that's what I think. I think Republicans are still firmly established. I think people are embarrassed to be a Democrat right now.
这是来自罗伯特·F·肯尼迪竞选阵营的观点。我的意思是，你们认识多少人是共和党人，但不想再是共和党人了，或者是民主党人，但不想再是民主党人了？实际上，好多人都是这样。我更多地认识后者，实际上，我比认识前者还多。是的，没错。对，我就是这么想的。我认为共和党仍然牢固地立足，而现在人们对于成为民主党人感到尴尬。
Interestingly, I also picked the Dark Horse President, Jill candidate who will be treasonous and corrupt, AKA Trump and Biden. I think we're going to actually see some dark horse candidate maybe beat these two and the rematch that nobody wanted. Wow, that's crazy. Three of the four of us picked the same thing. No coordination beforehand. Yes. And this is done blind, folks. And Nick has my notes here so he can he can vouch for me here.
有趣的是，我也选择了那些可能会背叛和腐败的黑马总统候选人，也就是特朗普和拜登。我认为我们可能真的会看到一些黑马候选人击败这两个，进行一场没人想要的复赛。哇，太疯狂了。我们四个人中有三个人选了同样的事情。没有事先协调。是的。这是盲选，朋友们。尼克有我的笔记在这里，他可以为我作证。
And just to go back and look at 2023, what we predicted, SAC, you said Asian American college applicants were going to be your biggest winner in politics. That actually turned out to be pretty prescient, right? Yeah. I mean, I was betting on court cases, overruling affirmative action. And that's exactly what happened is that. Student court ruled against affirmative action and college admissions, saying that it unlawfully discriminated against Asian Americans. So yeah, that worked out exactly right. So that's a great prediction.
只是回顾一下2023年的情况，SAC你之前说，亚裔美国大学申请者将成为你在政治上最大的赢家。事实证明，这个预测相当准确，对吧？是的。我的赌注是投在法院对平权行动的裁决上。事实上，学生法庭做出了裁决，认为平权行动在大学录取中对亚裔美国人存在非法歧视。所以，这个预测完全正确。真是个了不起的预测。
I think, Chamath, you had perhaps the best prediction of even the entire show last year, your spread trade, long Nikki and short to Santa's that paid off in spades. Well done there. Freeberg, you had MBS and Saudi have the most important year in their modern era. Not actually pretty pressing as well. They seem to be. I mean, if you look at, let me just post this. This was this journal article that came out in March. If you guys remember this, when Saudi was considering accepting you on instead of dollars for sales of oil to China. And then in August, the US ramped up pressure on Saudi Arabia to sell oil and dollars, not you on. Let me just pull this up for you guys, which was obviously a big follow on story where the US pride to counter the actions, which is continuing obviously today, where there's a back and forth and Saudi, as I mentioned last week, I think is in this really interesting central pivot position between all of these competing major nuclear powers and fighting for influence. And this is a big story and it will continue to be this year.
我认为，Chamath，你去年或许是整个节目中最好的预测者，你的传播交易，押注Nikki，把Santa给打短了，效果非常好。干得漂亮。Freeberg，你认为MBS和沙特在他们现代时代有了最重要的一年。这也确实是不容忽视的。他们似乎是。我的意思是，如果你看看，让我发一下这个。这是三月份发表的一篇期刊文章，当时沙特正在考虑接受元而不是美元出售石油给中国。然后在八月份，美国加大了对沙特阿拉伯以美元而不是元销售石油的压力。让我给你们看一下这个，显然这是一个重要的后续报道，美国才进行了反击行动，这在今天仍在继续，沙特如我上周提到的，处于一个非常有趣的中心位置，位于这些有影响力的核大国之间，争夺影响力。这是一个重大事件，今年还将继续。
And modernizing. That photo of the fist bomb. I mean, what a mistake that was where Biden just gratuitously insulted MBS, compare that to the photo of Putin visiting the Middle East and meeting shaking hands with MBS, which happened just a few weeks ago. And compare the welcome that Putin got in Saudi Arabia and I think UAE to the welcome that Biden got it's just two completely different levels. It was a very warm embrace on both sides. I think it was UAE. They literally had a parade for him where they had the colors of the Russian flag up everywhere. So, you know, we've tried to portray Putin as this global pariah. We've tried to turn him into this global pariah, but it's not working. Because of the way that he is defeating the collective West in Ukraine, I think that it's given him enormous cache and influence in the global South and much of the developing world, which would like to stand up to American dominance or at least is tired of American dominance.
现代化。那张握拳的照片。我的意思是，拜登那次毫无必要地侮辱了穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼，简直是个大错特错，相比之下，普京在几周前访问中东时与穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼握手的照片，与之相比非常不同。再来比较一下普京在沙特阿拉伯和我想是阿联酋所受到的欢迎，与拜登所受到的欢迎完全不同。双方都给予了非常热情的拥抱。我想是阿联酋。他们为他举行了阅兵式，到处都挂满了俄罗斯国旗的颜色。所以，你知道，我们试图把普京描绘成全球的罪人。我们试图把他变成全球的罪人，但没成功。因为他在乌克兰击败了西方联盟，我认为这使他在全球南方和许多发展中国家获得了巨大的声望和影响力，这些国家希望抵抗美国的霸权，或者至少厌倦了美国的霸权。
And if you double click on that article, the second one I sent on Washington trying to negotiate with the Saudis, you know, quote behind the scenes, but obviously this all comes out. They're asking assurances that Riyadh will use dollars, not yuan to price oil sales, assurances that Saudi won't allow China to build military bases in the kingdom and limitations on Saudi Arabia using technology developed by China. And in exchange, the US will protect Saudi will provide military protection and will help them develop a nuclear program, which is an incredible demand. So obviously this is an unresolved point, but this becomes a pivot moment for Saudi Arabia. They may be coming nuclear power, use this as leverage as the US continues to try and keep dollar hegemony alive.
如果您双击我刚刚发送的关于华盛顿试图与沙特进行谈判的第二篇文章，您就会知道，这是一种幕后交易，但显而易见，这一切都会曝光。他们要求确保利雅得使用美元而不是人民币定价石油销售，要求沙特不允许中国在该国建立军事基地，并限制沙特使用中国开发的技术。作为交换条件，美国将保护沙特并提供军事保护，并帮助他们发展核计划，这是一个令人难以置信的要求。因此，显然这是一个未解决的问题，但这成为了沙特阿拉伯的一个关键时刻。他们可能会使用核能作为杠杆，而美国则继续努力维持美元的霸权地位。
And my prediction last year was that Trump would get indicted, win the nomination, and then agree not to run in order to get a pardon or something in that vein. And it looks like I'm going to get two of those three. We'll see on the pardon. He has been indicted, obviously. And he is looks like a lock to win the nomination. But we'll see.
去年我的预测是特朗普将会被起诉、赢得提名，然后同意不参选以便获得特赦或类似的事情。看起来我将会其中两个预测成真。至于特赦，还未可知。显然，他已经被起诉了。而且他似乎肯定会赢得提名。但我们还得等等看。
I don't. It seems like Nikki Helly's doing OK. You'll see biggest political loser of 2024 is what we're going to do next. Jamov, last year you picked DeSantis. I picked DeSantis. That was a pretty easy one. Saxia picked California, also a pretty easy one. We know that California's gotten demolished. Because specifically, California went from having a $76 billion surplus in 2022 to a $68 billion deficit now. Yeah, it's bonkers. Yeah. I don't think any of those were as obvious as they were in January of last year. I think DeSantis was leading. He was collecting a lot of big checks and California hadn't imploded. And I and everybody knew that they were under pressure, but nobody expected to be, I think this swift. So I don't think those were obvious. I think those were actually pretty decent picks. OK, that's good argument.
我不认同。尼基·赫利似乎过得不错。你会看到2024年最大的政治失败者是我们接下来要做的。雅莫夫，去年你选了德桑蒂斯。我也选了德桑蒂斯。那个相当容易。萨克斯亚选择了加州，也是相当容易的。我们知道加州已经遭受了很大打击。由于具体原因，加州从2022年的760亿美元盈余变成了现在的680亿美元赤字。是的，这太疯狂了。是的。我认为这些选项都没有去年一月份时那么明显。我认为德桑蒂斯在领先。他收到了很多大额捐款，而加州还没有崩溃。我和大家都知道他们面临着压力，但没有人预料到会如此迅速。所以我认为这些并不明显。我认为这些选择实际上相当不错。好的，这是个好的观点。
And then Freberg, you picked debt issues for emerging nations. Debt markets start to unravel. IMF steps in. I'm not sure I have enough information to check in on that one yet. Any thoughts, Freberg, we go on to our predictions for biggest loser. I don't think we had any big unwindings like I had expected, but these problems are bubbling and persist. You know, obviously Argentina took a big step with the election there. That one was one of the countries that was most at risk of having a big event last year. But.
然后，弗雷伯格，你选择了新兴国家的债务问题。债务市场开始崩溃。国际货币基金组织介入。我不确定我是否有足够的信息来对此进行核实。弗雷伯格，你有什么想法，我们将继续讨论最大输家的预测。我认为没有像我预期的那样有大规模解汇，但这些问题正在酝酿并持续存在。显然，阿根廷大选是一次重要的进展。去年，这个国家是最有可能发生重大事件的国家之一。但是。
Chamop, who's your prediction for biggest political loser in 2024? The Coats. I think on a dollar basis, they are the largest spender and Republican politics they have been. And they have been the most consistent negative indicator of value. And so if you just want to fade a trade, I think you can pretty easily just find where the. Those old school Republicans are putting their money and just kind of short it. And right now, as much as I was sort of long, the hailey spread trade in 2023, I would probably now short that trade in 24. OK, switching about mostly because of the cooks.
Chamop，你对2024年最大的政治失败者有什么预测？The Coats。根据美元计算，他们是最大的支出者，一直是共和党政治中的代表。他们一直是价值负指标中最一致的。如果你只是想做一个对冲交易，我想你可以很容易地找到那些老派的共和党人把他们的钱放在哪里，然后做空。现在，尽管我在2023年对Hailey的推测交易持有乐观态度，但我可能会在2024年做空该交易。好了，主要是因为The Coats。
Freberg, what do you. Well, Saxo like this one, but I think Ukraine might be. The biggest loser this year as attention shifts to the brewing conflict in the Middle East. During an election year, like the US is facing continuing this funding of this Ukraine, Russia conflict with US dollars is becoming a more unpopular. Issue for people to support. And so I think because of all these, these competing interests and the political pressure, the US will probably not have the resources to commit to Ukraine. I think Ukraine's shot at being in NATO is going to fade away. And unfortunately, it seems like the country may be left behind by the end of this year.
Freberg，你怎么看？嗯，Saxo喜欢这个，但我认为乌克兰可能是今年最大的失败者，因为关注点转向中东的冲突。在选举年份，像美国这样继续用美元资助乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的冲突变得越来越不受欢迎。这对人们的支持是一个更加不受欢迎的问题。因此，我认为由于所有这些相互竞争的利益和政治压力，美国可能没有足够的资源来承诺支持乌克兰。我认为乌克兰加入北约的机会将会逐渐消失。不幸的是，到今年年底，这个国家可能会被抛在后面。
Saxo, what do you got? Well, I totally agree with that. And I would just add demographic decline or even collapse. They've lost something like half a million soldiers in terms of casualties. They also something like 10 million people have fled the country. I read recently that there's only about 20 million people left in the country and half of them are pensioners. So it's not even clear that the working population of the country is going to be able to support the pensioners. And of course, the war isn't close to being over yet. So there's going to be even more destruction that happens. So I agree with that that pick.
萨克索，你有什么想法？嗯，我完全同意。我只想补充一下，人口下降甚至崩溃的情况。他们在伤亡人数方面已经损失了大约50万名士兵。约有1000万人逃离了这个国家。我最近读到，现在这个国家只剩下大约2000万人，其中一半是退休人员。因此，这个国家的工作人口是否能够支持养老金还不明确。当然，战争还远未结束，还会有更多的破坏发生。所以我同意你的选择。
I upleveled my answer a little bit here to have the collective West as the biggest political loser. And Ukraine is a big part of that. Obviously, this huge bet that the collective West made in terms of pressuring and challenging Putin in Ukraine has completely crapped out.
我稍微提高了我的回答，将集体西方称为最大的政治失败者。而乌克兰在其中起到了重要的作用。显然，集体西方在对乌克兰施加压力和挑战普京方面的巨大赌注已经完全失败了。
But I would also go much further than that. You look at what's happening in Israel and Gaza right now. And I don't think that Israel's invasion of Gaza is going well at all. And again, just stepping back, these answers don't reflect my desire for what I want to have happened. It just reflects my honest assessment of who the losers are going to be.
但是我还会更进一步。看看现在以色列和加沙发生的情况。我认为以色列对加沙的入侵一直进展得很糟糕。再说一次，这些回答并不反映我对希望发生的事情的渴望，只是反映我对输家将会是谁的真实评估。
And I just think that Israel's invasion is not going well. It does not look like they're going to be able to militarily achieve their objective of destroying Hamas. Admiral Kirby, who's the Pentagon spokesperson, even said that the other day, which was a pretty amazing admission.
我只是觉得以色列的入侵情况不妙。他们似乎无法在军事上实现摧毁哈马斯的目标。五角大楼发言人柯比海军上将甚至在前几天承认了这一点，这实在令人震惊。
At the same time, Israel is creating a huge humanitarian crisis in Gaza, something like over 20,000 Palestinians have already been killed, over 50,000 wounded, something like 1.8 million of them have been displaced. And it doesn't look like it's going to let up anytime soon. As a result of this, Israel is facing, I think, a huge amount of condemnation internationally. It is becoming a bit of a global pariah. So that is not going well for America and the West.
与此同时，以色列正在加沙地带制造一场巨大的人道主义危机，已有超过2万名巴勒斯坦人被杀，超过5万名巴勒斯坦人受伤，大约180万人流离失所。而且看起来这种情况不会很快得到缓解。作为结果，以色列正面临着巨大的国际谴责。它逐渐成为全球的负面典型。对美国和西方来说，这是一个不利的局势。
And then you're going to have a whole bunch of elections this year, both in the US and in Europe. I think that there's going to be tremendous disruption. Things are really not going well in Europe right now. Large parts of Europe are in recession as a result of losing cheap Russian gas. This is particularly true of Germany. And I think there's going to be some big shakeups in the European Parliament. And I wouldn't be surprised if there was similar shakeups in the US election as well.
然后，今年你们将会有很多选举，不论是美国还是欧洲。我认为将会出现巨大的动荡局面。欧洲现在的情况确实不太乐观。由于失去了廉价的俄罗斯天然气，欧洲的很多地区都陷入了衰退，尤其是德国。我认为欧洲议会将会发生一些重大变动。而且我也不会对美国选举出现类似的大动荡感到意外。
Alright. And I picked for my biggest political loser. I was going to go with the American voter, but I'm hoping that the American voters make better choices. And maybe we see some alternative candidates, as we said in the last one. And I went with Netanyahu here. I think, and again, this is just my assessment. This isn't what I want to occur in the world, obviously, but every major Israeli poll is just suggesting that they want him out. And they put the odds, Vox puts the odds of his ouster at 75%. And obviously, yeah, Gaza is not going well. And it feels like there is a massive shift in terms of what was early support. And obviously, for the terror attacks that occurred on 10 seven and any reasonable person would be supportive of that to Hey, maybe what's happening in Gaza is not helping the situation and needs to be resolved. And maybe a different approach has to occur. And so I think Netanyahu is going to be the biggest loser in 2024.
好的，我选择了我认为最大的政治失败者。我原本打算选美国选民，但我希望美国选民能做出更好的选择。也许我们可以看到一些其他候选人，正如我们在上一次讨论中所说。这里我选择了内塔尼亚胡。我认为，这只是我的评估，这不是我希望发生在世界上的事情，显然，以色列的每一次重大民调都表明他们想让他下台。 Vox网站将他被赶下台的几率估计为75%。显然，加沙的情况不容乐观。而且似乎在早期的支持基础上发生了巨大的转变。显然，对于10月7日发生的恐怖袭击，任何理智的人都应该表示支持，但也许加沙目前的情况并没有改善局势，需要解决。也许需要采取不同的方法。所以我认为，内塔尼亚胡将是2024年最大的失败者。
Alright, let's go on to the biggest business winner of 2024 back to business last year last year. In 2023, I predicted laid off tech workers starting startup companies would be the big winner. Chamop, you predicted relativity space, 3D printing, rocket company, and sacks. You picked America's natural gas industry, freeburg, open AI.
好的，让我们继续谈谈去年的最大商业赢家，并回顾去年的业务。在2023年，我预测被解雇的技术工人创办创业公司将是大赢家。Chamop，你预测的是相对论空间公司、3D打印火箭公司和薯片。你选择了美国的天然气行业、freeburg和open AI。
Wow, a lot of good choices there. I think opening eye was a huge winner in 2023. Yeah, freeburg, even with the chaos. So I would say so that was a good, massive revenue. The highest market kept in the year, probably.
哇，有很多好的选择。我认为在2023年，开眼是巨大的赢家。是的，即使有混乱，Freeburg也是。所以我想说那是一个不错的、巨大的收入。可能是今年保持最高市场价值的。
Yeah, 30 to 90 billion. Yeah, American natural gas industry, that really actually cooked in 2023. Yeah, sex. Yeah, it has new records. Good predictions. Good pick. Yeah, good pick.
是的，30到90亿。是的，美国天然气行业真的在2023年发展迅猛。是的，性别。是的，它创下了新纪录。很好的预测。很棒的选择。是的，好选择。
Alright, so let's go right to 2024 predictions. Freeburg, you haven't let us off yet. So you're going to be the lead off batter here. What do you got?
好的，那我们直接来谈谈2024年的预测吧。Freeburg，你还没有表态呢。那么你就先开始吧。你有什么预测呢？
I'm going with commodities businesses, which I know isn't speaking a specific business, but there's a lot of ways to play it. And I think there's a big commodities boom that's coming back in 2024. There's been a lot of underinvestment relative to demand. Over the past, call it 18 to 24 months, coming out of COVID. And with rising interest rates, a lot of folks have been selling down inventory. And there now needs to be a build backup on inventory and supply. There's also a bunch of cash coming into the commodities markets that was sitting in treasuries as yields go down and that cash is coming back. So building the base backup, rebuilding stockpiles and supplies coming out of the past 18 months, obviously economic activity is strong and robust. So commodities businesses are going to see a killer 2024.
我打算从商品业务入手，我知道这并不特指一种具体的业务，但有很多方法可以玩转它。我认为2024年将迎来一波大宗商品繁荣。过去的18至24个月，在COVID-19疫情解除后，投资不足相对于需求。随着利率上升，许多人开始抛售库存。而现在需要对库存和供应进行补充。此外，大量现金涌入商品市场，这些现金之前一直存放在国债中，现在它们回流了。所以要建立库存的基础，重建过去18个月中减少的储备和供应。显然，经济活动强劲而稳健。因此，商品业务将在2024年取得巨大成功。
Chamapu, do you have?
Chamapu，你有吗？
I think the biggest business winner in 2024 is going to be the bootstrapped startup and or the profitable startup. But the best will probably be the bootstrapped profitable startup. And I think the reason is that we are underestimating how cheap it's going to be to copy an existing business in 2024. And so if you assume that these models are going to get 10 and 100 times better, and you assume the cost of compute is going to get 10 and 100 times cheaper, and you assume the cost of energy is going to get 10 times cheaper, you're no longer measuring in decades when a company will be subject to disruption. I think you're measuring it in frankly months. And so I think you're going to be able to create these companies for very cheap and essentially have them attack an existing business, which has upside on economics because they have just a lot of people and a lot of processes that these GPTs can replicate for essentially free. So if you're profitable, you have the chance to survive. And I think if you are unprofitable, I think that you're going to be under a lot of pressure.
我认为2024年最大的商业赢家将是自给自足的初创企业或盈利的初创企业。但最好的可能是自给自足且盈利的初创企业。我认为原因是我们低估了在2024年复制现有业务的成本会有多低廉。所以，如果你假设这些模型会变得10到100倍更好，假设计算成本会降低10到100倍，假设能源成本会降低10倍，你不再是以几十年来衡量一个公司是否会受到颠覆的因素。我认为你将以几个月来衡量。因此，我认为你将能够以非常便宜的方式创建这些公司，实质上让它们攻击一个现有的企业，因为它们有经济上的优势，拥有大量的人员和大量的流程，这些GPTs可以免费复制。所以如果你是盈利的，你有机会生存下来。而如果你是亏损的，我认为你将承受很大的压力。
I think it's a great pick. That's exactly what I'm seeing on the field in the early stage.
我觉得这是个好选择。这正是我在早期阶段在现场所见到的。
Sax, who's your prediction for a biggest business winner of 2024? Who do you predict? It's going to be the biggest business winner.
萨克斯，你预测2024年的最大商业赢家会是谁？你是预测谁呢？它将是最大的商业赢家。
I'm predicting Andrew for its Roadrunner product, which it announced last year. And this is a drone interceptor. So it basically intercepts drones is built for ground based air defense.
我预测 Andrew 公司将会推出去年宣布的 Roadrunner 产品。这是一款无人机拦截器，主要用于地面防空任务。
And the reason I say this is because if you saw recently what was happening in the Red Sea with the Hootes, the US was having to use $2 million air defense missiles to shoot down $2,000 drones. And that is not sustainable.
我之所以这么说，是因为最近你可能看到了在红海上的胡塞武装，美国不得不使用价值200万美元的防空导弹击落价值2000美元的无人机。这样的情况是不可持续的。
So right now we have a huge problem with asymmetric warfare where our adversaries are using very cheap missiles, very cheap drones, swarms of them. And they force us to exhaust our air defenses, which are just way too expensive on a unit basis.
现在我们面临着一种巨大的不对称战争问题，对手使用非常便宜的导弹、无人机，并以群体的方式出击。这迫使我们耗尽昂贵的防空系统，这种系统的单位成本过高。
Hundreds of thousands of dollars, do you think? Yeah, I think that's right. I think the Roadrunner system costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, but it can be, it's reusable. So it's not like you just send one up to take out one drone.
数十万美元，你认为呢？是的，我认为是这样。我认为Roadrunner系统的成本是数十万美元，但它是可重复使用的。所以不像你只是发射一个导弹来击落一架无人机。
If it doesn't blow up, if it does blow up, I don't think you reuse it. It basically takes off at Loyder's. This is basically a AI system where it's self-driving. I guess you will. It has operators, but and then it returns back to its base station after it's used. It's not like a kamikaze type drone. It's actually a drone killer.
如果它不爆炸，如果爆炸了，我觉得你就不能再重复使用它了。它基本上是在洛伊德尔起飞的。这基本上是一个自动驾驶的AI系统。我猜你会的。它有操作员，但在使用后会返回基地。它不像是一种神风特种无人机，实际上，它是一种无人机杀手。
Oh, really? I think it is. I think it do dual purpose. It can either intercept and blow something up or it can return back to base. But we'll have to check in on that.
哦，真的吗？我认为是这样的。我认为它可以兼顾两种功能。它既可以拦截并炸毁某物，也可以返回基地。但我们需要对此进行确认。
Hey, and shout out to our friend, Palmer. Lucky come back on the program. We miss you. Shout out to our boy.
嗨，向我们的朋友帕尔默问候一下。幸运的是，他重新加入了节目。我们想念你。向我们的兄弟致敬。
Are you an investor, Saks? In, uh, Andrew? No, I'm not an investor, but I think I would be. Yeah. You know, so.
你是投资者吗，Saks？在，嗯，安德鲁？不，我不是投资者，但我认为我会成为投资者。是的。你懂的，就是这样。
They've raised a ton of money. Palmer, great job. Yeah. No, Palmer will all buy. Actually, I'm building a physician right now. I've been buying secondary in, uh, Andrew. And for me, I was going to go. It started up again. Really buying secondary shares in Andrew. I've been building a large position in Andrew. Yes, I'm trying to get to a 2% ownership position so I can join the board. So I can, uh, yeah, using. So I do my guy, mom, we're lucky.
他们筹集了大量的资金。帕尔默，干得好。是的。不，帕尔默会全部买下来。实际上，我现在正在筹建一个私募基金。我一直在买安德鲁的二级股权。对我来说，我准备再次启动。真的在购买安德鲁的二级股权。我一直在持有安德鲁的大量股权。是的，我正在努力提高持股比例，以便能够加入董事会。这样我就可以，嗯，就可以使用。那么，我会和我的团队一起做好，妈妈，我们很幸运。
I am going to go with for my biggest winner in 2024. Training data owners like the New York Times, Reddit, X, Twitter, YouTube, et cetera. I think what we learned in 2023 was that the language models are starting to hit parity very quickly and that the real value is going to be in.
2024年，我将选择作为我最大的赢家。培训数据所有者包括纽约时报、Reddit、X、Twitter、YouTube等。我认为我们在2023年学到的是，语言模型开始迅速达到并列的水平，并且真正的价值将出现在这方面。
And it may have become commodities and open source may win the day. So then I think the winner is folks who have the training data.
而且它可能已经变成商品，开源可能会获胜。所以我认为，胜利者是拥有培训数据的人们。
And I'm actually proposing a new business model for these language models. I think now that we've seen this New York Times and open AI lawsuit, I think there's a really great outcome here, which is a market based solution where if you. Have a chat GPT account, you can log in and federate with your New York Times subscription or, you know, any other subscription.
我实际上正在为这些语言模型提出一种新的商业模式。我认为，既然我们已经见识了《纽约时报》和开放AI之间的诉讼，这里有一个非常好的结果，那就是一个基于市场的解决方案：如果你拥有一个聊天GPT账户，你可以登录并与你的《纽约时报》订阅或其他任何订阅进行联合。
And then it gives you the tier of chat GPT for with the New York Times. And so that could be a win-win for everybody or they could obviously pay a licensing fee.
然后它给您提供了与《纽约时报》交流的GPT等级。因此，这可能对所有人都是双赢的，或者他们显然可以支付许可费用。
And so I think this is going to be an amazing turnaround for the entire content industry if the language models respect copyright owners and come up with a sustainable system where every year, copyright holders can get some money in exchange for using their training data, whether it's on images or content. So I'm.
我认为如果语言模型能够尊重版权所有者并建立一个可持续的系统，为版权持有人每年使用他们的训练数据（无论是图片还是内容）交换一些金钱，这将是整个内容行业的惊人转变。因此，我对此持乐观态度。
Accumulate 2% position and open AI through secondary purchases and get them to do that on the board. Only two billion. Yeah. No, I think I mean, we didn't bring this up because this broke over the holiday break.
通过二级购买累积2%的股份，并让他们在董事会上做此事。只有两十亿。是的。不，我觉得我是指我们没有提到这个，因为它是在假期期间爆发的。
But I think Sam Altman's doing a great job of telling people he wants to do the right thing. And we discussed previously the licensing deal they did with business insider and the parent company of it. Axel Springer, what do you think the deal with New York Times or liquid? I think it's going to be a nine figure settlement for previous stuff and then an ongoing licensing fee in order to have the New York Times and their training data. And then you'll be able to say, Hey, what does the New York Times think of this? Right? You could actually do queries about the New York Times in it.
但我认为Sam Altman在向人们传达他想要做正确的事情方面做得很好。我们之前讨论过他们与Business Insider及其母公司Axel Springer达成的许可协议。关于与New York Times或Liquid的交易，你认为会是什么样的交易呢？我认为这将是一个八位数的解决方案来处理之前的事情，然后进行持续的许可费用以获得纽约时报和他们的训练数据。然后你就可以问，“纽约时报对此有何看法？”对吗？你实际上可以在其中查询有关纽约时报的信息。
And I think the New York Times will come up with a license that everybody can use their data if they pay this yearly fee. If you stop paying the yearly fee, then you can't train on it.
我认为《纽约时报》将推出一种许可证，只要每年支付费用，任何人都可以使用他们的数据。如果停止支付年费，您就无法进行训练。
And we're in uncharted territory. You're saying there's going to be a New York Times model and a non New York Times model? Well, I think you could do two different things. One you could do New York Times could make their own model, right? But they could fork their model or just with the user interface.
我们进入了未知的领域。你是说会有一种纽约时报模式和一种非纽约时报模式？嗯，我觉得你可以做两件不同的事情。一种是纽约时报可以自己建立他们的模式，对吗？但是他们可以通过分叉模式或者只是修改用户界面来实现。
Say, if you want to query New York Times information and have that as part of your results, you have to have a New York Times account, right? So if you say, I want the best coffee machines or what's the best coffee equipment, it says, Oh, if you had wire cutter and the subscription to New York Times, we would include the wire cutter results.
假设你想查询《纽约时报》的相关信息，并希望将其作为结果的一部分，那么你需要拥有一个《纽约时报》的账户，对吗？所以，如果你说，“我想要最好的咖啡机”或者“什么是最好的咖啡设备”，它会说，“哦，如果你拥有Wirecutter（一个评测网站）和《纽约时报》的订阅，我们会包含Wirecutter的结果。”
And this idea that technologists can't do citations has been proven absolutely incorrect. There are language models out there that are using citations all the time. Opening I think will wind up losing the case if it goes to the mat. I think they're going to pay a big licensing fee to your question.
这种认为技术人员不懂如何引用文献的观念已被证明是完全不正确的。现在有许多语言模型都在不断使用引文。我认为如果这件事进一步发展下去，开普若为此事而坚持到底将会失败。我相信他们最终会支付一笔巨额的许可费用作为解决方案。
Chama. My prediction then is that if this happens, this is not my pick, but I'm just going to tell you. I suspect that what happens is you'll get these yearly licensing fees. And then one year, the New York Times just falls off a cliff. And when it comes time to renegotiate, then open AI says, no. And they won't have a choice.
我个人的预测是，如果发生这种情况，这不是我的选择，但我只是告诉你。我怀疑会发生的情况是，你们将支付这些年度许可费用。然后有一年，《纽约时报》突然面临严重困境。当谈判重新开始时，OpenAI会表示不再续约。他们将别无选择。
Well, I mean, that's possibility. But if you think about the Disney characters, you know, let's, I don't know, if you saw Nintendo and Disney characters, you know, making stuff on dolly or other things. If you make derivative works on that and you want to have that feature as part of your image creator, you just have to have a licensing fee. And so I think that there's a win-win here to be had. And I am really interested to see the market-based solution because I don't think this is a Napster situation where like open AI gets shuts down because opening eyes too savvy.
嗯，我的意思是，这是有可能的。但是如果你想想迪士尼角色，你知道，嗯，我不知道，如果你看到任天堂和迪士尼角色在洋娃娃或其他东西上制作东西。如果你在此基础上制作衍生作品，并希望将此功能作为图像创作者的一部分，你只需要支付许可费用。因此，我认为这里有一个双赢的机会。我非常期待看到基于市场的解决方案，因为我认为这不是一个像Napster那样的情况，即OpenAI因为开放而被关闭。
I bet you the big difference between Napster and this is there, the content universe was limited and small. Here it's infinite and unlimited. And so how do you pay anything to anybody without? I just think it's like without direct attribution or revenue, which is basically impossible, you're kind of making a value judgment, which I don't think makes any sense.
我敢打赌Napster与现在这个平台的显著区别就在于，前者的内容宇宙是有限且小规模的，而现在这里的内容是无限且不受限制的。那么，如果没有直接归属或收入，你如何向任何人支付任何费用呢？我只是认为，没有直接归属或收入的情况下，从根本上讲是不可能的，你在某种程度上在做价值判断，我认为这是毫无意义的。
I think doing a revenue licensing deal is impossible when you get into the weeds, when these business people sit down and actually start to try to figure out the bid ask. I don't know as a rational coherent business person what you would model in order to present a number.
我认为，当你深入细节、当这些商界人士坐下来开始试图弄清楚买卖双方要价时，进行收入授权交易几乎是不可能的。作为一个理性而有条理的商业人士，我不知道你会建立什么类型的模型来提出一个数字。
Yeah. So one suggestion would be what percentage of the models creation was using the New York Times data. And I think people say 1 to 2% of the original chat GPT was built off a trading data was New York Times. And then if they waited that heavily, Chumath, like let's say they said, New York Times is an authoritatively five times more important than these other sources. That could be upwards of 5 to 10% of the authority of that model.
是的。所以一个建议是，模型的创建中有多少百分比使用了《纽约时报》的数据。人们说，原始聊天GPT模型中大约有1到2%是基于《纽约时报》的交易数据构建的。如果他们非常依赖《纽约时报》的数据，比如说他们认为《纽约时报》的权威性是其他来源的五倍，那可能会占到该模型权威性的5到10%左右。
Yeah, but I just. It's not easy, but what's the cause? Yeah, but what's the cause for the like, are you telling me that like in the industry has this going to be like a 30, 40% cost of goods?
是的，但是我只是不明白。虽然困难，但是是什么原因呢？是的，但是这样做的原因是什么，难道行业内的产品成本要增加30%到40%吗？
You could say that chat GPT, or let's say Apple, I predict Apple will do this, right? They'll do a language model where they say 50% of the revenue that we generate from queries or subscriptions. It goes to the people we built it off of where the licensees. Sure. Why not? Why not? They're already the music industry.
你可以这样说，聊天GPT，或者说苹果，我预测苹果会做这样一款语言模型对外宣称，我们从查询或订阅产生的收入的50%将归还给我们建立该模型的人，也就是被授权使用者。当然可以，为什么不呢？他们已经掌握了音乐行业。
It doesn't would guarantee the death of the startup ecosystem. And it would guarantee the lock in a big tech. No, I don't think so. You could build models that don't have the data and you could build models with it. So it'll be a choice by the person who builds the model and synthetic data might make it so you don't need the New York Times from off. It's early days for synthetic data. I don't have an opinion.
这并不会保证创业生态的灭亡。而且这将确保大型科技企业的垄断地位。不，我不这么认为。你可以构建不使用数据的模型，也可以使用数据构建模型。所以这将取决于构建模型的人的选择，而合成数据可能会使你不再需要《纽约时报》之类的数据来源。合成数据现在还处于早期阶段，我没有意见。
I'm just reacting to this idea that 50% of Cog's then all of a sudden these aren't software companies. You know, these software companies will have a gross margin of like 30%.
我只是对这个想法作出反应，即50%的Cog突然间不再是软件公司。你知道，这些软件公司的毛利率可能只有30%左右。
Yeah. Well, what a Spotify pay for music. You know, so the same argument is made for Spotify, you know, or Netflix. When they were nice to take on it. That's the difference. It's limited in scope, meaning there's only ever one hit song from Rihanna that matters or Jay Z or whomever Taylor Swift. And so it's a very scoped content universe. And so you can ascribe value much easier because then the user goes and actually listens to that song over another.
是的。好吧，Spotify购买音乐。你知道，对于Spotify或Netflix也有同样的论点。当他们选择这种方式时，就有了区别。它的范围有限，意味着只有来自蕾哈娜、杰伊·Z或泰勒·斯威夫特等人的热门歌曲才有影响力。因此，它是一个非常有限的内容世界。所以你可以更容易地给它价值，因为用户会选择去听这首歌而不是其他歌曲。
This is about something that's happening under the water line where you don't know how the iceberg is both. There are things under the model that do it. And then there's also quoting stuff and that's really within New York Times got them caught them with their hand in the cookie jar is that when it was regurgitating information and giving the results, it was quoting deeply New York Times proprietary content. And so that's where there's like, you're right about the training data, but you might be wrong about the how that could be fixed.
这是关于水面下正在发生的一些事情，你不知道冰山是如何悬浮的。模型下面有一些能够完成这一任务的东西。此外，还存在引用的内容，纽约时报就是其中之一，他们被逮到手深深地伸进了饼干罐子的时候，就是在逆向利用信息并提供结果时，深度引用了纽约时报的专有内容。所以在训练数据方面你说得没错，但对于如何解决这个问题可能不正确。
Right. They could train models and they could they could exclude storing any proprietary data. You can create a filter that says the model can't store any of this data. But it can still be trained or can't use it. Right. So if you say, what's the best coffee machine, it can't use the New York Times, where I cut a data. And I bet you that Sam Altman has already built a model without it. I guarantee you they've already built a for an emergent press here in case of emergency. Here's the 4.5 model in case they got an injunction, which would be highly unlikely. But if they did get an injunction, they just say, okay, here's 4.5. It doesn't use the New York Times training data. So this is all uncharted territory as we all know. I think we got everybody's business predictions.
是的。他们可以训练模型，也可以排除存储任何专有数据的可能性。你可以创建一个过滤器，规定模型不能存储任何这些数据。但它仍然可以被训练或不能使用它。是的。所以如果你说，什么是最好的咖啡机，它不能使用纽约时报这样的数据。我敢打赌Sam Altman已经建立了一个没有这些数据的模型。我敢保证他们已经为紧急情况建立了一个4.5版本的模型。这种情况发生的可能性极小，但如果他们确实被禁令了，他们只会说，好的，这是4.5版，它不使用纽约时报的训练数据。所以我们都知道，这都是未知的领域。我认为我们已经得到了每个人的商业预测。
Okay. Andro commodities, training data and bootstrap profitable starters. What a great cohort there. Let's go on to biggest business losers in 2024. 2023, Chamath said Google search as measured by profitability engagement. Sac said the consumer. Freeberg said capital intensive series, BCs and D growth companies. That's pretty, pretty good winner there. And I said, why color workers without hard skills, also known as surplus elites.
好的。安卓商品、培训数据和引导盈利的初创企业，这个群体真是太棒了。让我们来看一下2024年最大的商业失败者。2023年，Chamath说谷歌搜索的盈利能力和参与度。Sac说是消费者。Freeberg说是资本密集型系列，包括风投和D型增长公司。那真是相当好的赢家了。而我则说，为什么没有硬技能的有色工人，也被称为多余的精英。
Any feedback on those boys as your winner, I'll give you my prediction for 24. Please, yes. Go ahead. Vertical SaaS companies, I think, are going to get smacked this year. And I mentioned this. I think we talked about this off the show, or if we talk about it on the show, I apologize. But I think these tools to write code, no code tools, copiloting tools, and the ability for engineers to get 20, 50, 100x more productive to build custom applications for their enterprise are so incredibly powerful. I mentioned this to you guys. I know of a couple of vertical SaaS businesses that some of my companies use the software, and they're getting off the software because they've built homegrown solutions at a very low cost, very low touch way. And I'm seeing that so frequently now, I think this is a real threat to vertical SaaS businesses that can charge thousands of dollars per seat that are getting disrupted by the ability for companies now to very cheaply and quickly build homegrown solutions to a lot of the generative tools that are out there.
如果你有关于那些男生作为你的获胜者的任何反馈，我会给出我对24号的预测。请继续。我认为，纵向SaaS公司今年将受到重击。我提到过这个问题。我想我们在节目外讨论过这个问题，或者如果我们在节目中讨论过，我向你们道歉。但是我认为这些编写代码的工具、无代码工具、联合编程工具以及工程师们能够以20倍、50倍、100倍的效率更高地为他们的企业构建定制应用程序的能力是如此强大。我向你们提到过这一点。我知道有几家我的公司使用的纵向SaaS企业正在停用软件，因为他们以非常低成本、非常低介入的方式构建了自制解决方案。我现在经常看到这种情况，我认为这对那些可以每个用户收费数千美元并且正在受到那些能够以非常低廉和迅速构建自制解决方案的生成工具的破坏的纵向SaaS企业是一个真正的威胁。
SaaS, your prediction. My prediction for biggest business loser in 24 is actually the German economy. There's two big problems there. First is that the loss of cheap, rushing gas has really cut the legs out from under the German industrial model. Their entire economy is based on industrial output, and cheap, rushing gas was sort of at the foundation of that. As you guys know, someone blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. I think that has really hurt the German economy. And then second, the German car industry has been massively impacted by a sudden glut of cheap cars coming from China. So if you look at the Chinese automotive industry, it's really exploded in the last few years. And auto exports is one of the biggest products that Germany manufactures. And with German costs going up and Chinese costs coming down, that's just not a very good place for them to be. So I think double whammy for Germany.
软件即服务(SaaS)，你的预测。我对2024年最大的商业输家的预测实际上是德国经济。那里有两个大问题。首先是廉价的俄罗斯天然气的损失真的削弱了德国的工业模式。他们整个经济都基于工业产出，而廉价的俄罗斯天然气是其基础。大家都知道，有人炸毁了北溪天然气管道。我认为这对德国经济造成了很大的伤害。其次，中国廉价汽车的突然过剩给德国汽车行业带来了巨大冲击。如果你看看中国汽车工业，在过去几年里真的是迅猛发展。汽车出口是德国制造的最大产品之一。而随着德国成本上升和中国成本下降，对他们来说这并不是一个很好的局面。所以我认为德国受到了双重打击。
Chamaap, do you have the biggest business loser in 2024? I am going to say that 24 is the peak in terms of valuations of professional sports. Oh, and I will give you four examples in 2023 that I think were in some very concerning or pro sports franchise values as of today. The first was you had an upstart competitor to a league that came out of nowhere, used money to overcome the ability to attract stars. I'm talking about the live tour versus the PGA and then essentially forced the PGA into merger talks with them. The second was you had a country use their balance sheet to basically try to jumpstart their own professional sports business. In this case, it was soccer. The country was Saudi Arabia and the players were Ronaldo and Messi. They got one, but not the other. The third was the explosion of NIL inside the NCAA. You have people in college now making more in some cases than the same player in a professional sports context. So they're making millions of dollars to be in college. And then the fourth, which may not seem like it's related, but there was an article in the Wall Street Journal, I think recently about a meaningful uptick in churn amongst all the streamers, Netflix, Hulu, all of these companies, Amazon, Quar. The only folks in a position to actually have the balance sheet to keep paying a premium for professional sports rights. So I think when you put that all together, you can start to see that there's been a tipping point in enterprise values. The acceleration we've seen over the last decade has slowed down. So I would say that 2024 is going to be the year of peak pro sports values. Okay, starts to come down.
Chamaap，你认为2024年最大的商业失败者是谁？我认为2024年是职业体育估值的巅峰。嗯，我会给你四个例子，这些例子都是我认为在2023年对一些非常关注或专业体育特许经营的价值产生了一定影响的。首先是在联赛之外突然崛起的一家新竞争对手，他们利用资金克服了吸引球星的能力。我指的是现场巡回赛对阵高尔夫球巡回赛，然后迫使高尔夫球巡回赛与他们进行合并谈判。第二个例子是一个国家利用自己的财务状况试图推动自己的职业体育业。在这种情况下，是足球。这个国家是沙特阿拉伯，球员是罗纳尔多和梅西。他们成功签下了其中一名球员，但没有签下另一名。第三个例子是美国大学体育协会内部的NIL（学生运动员的姓名、形象和相似特征权益）的爆发。有些大学生现在在某些情况下的收入比职业体育运动员还要高。所以他们在上大学期间可以赚取数百万美元。第四个例子可能看起来不相关，但最近《华尔街日报》上有一篇文章称，所有网络流媒体平台的用户转换率显著增加，例如Netflix、Hulu、亚马逊等。唯一有能力继续为职业体育赛事支付高额费用的公司是具备财务实力的。因此，我认为当这些情况综合考虑在一起时，我们可以看到企业价值已经达到了一个临界点。过去十年的加速增长已经放缓。因此，我认为2024年将是职业体育价值最高的一年，之后将开始下降。
And I went with smartphones. Smartphone manufacturers are facing a major slowdown. Consumers obviously love their phones and use them constantly, but people are skipping a generation of phones. And if you look at Apple's revenue, they're having a very hard time getting people to upgrade.
然后我开始使用智能手机。智能手机制造商正在面临严重的减速。消费者显然热爱他们的手机并且经常使用，但人们正在跳过一代手机。如果你看看苹果的收入，他们很难让人们升级。
And so I think that's going to flatten out. They will keep trying to squeeze money out of it. I don't know what you guys spent on your iPhone 15 if you got it, but I always buy the top of the line. And I think it was $14 or $1,500 this time. And when I got the accountants, they said, Oh, is this a new laptop sitting on it's a new phone? But I think this is going to slow down and people will during austerity, they're going to skip two or three versions of it. I know I skipped for the first time. I skipped the 14 this time around. So I'm going with smartphone manufacturers and Apple would be obviously the tip of that spear.
所以我认为这种趋势将会趋于平缓。他们会继续试图从中榨取利润。我不知道你们买 iPhone 15 花了多少钱，如果你们有买的话，但我总是买最顶级的那款。我想这次是 1400 或者 1500 美元吧。当我给会计师看的时候，他们说：“哦，这是一台新笔记本吗？它是一台新手机？”但我认为这种趋势会减缓，人们在紧缩时期会跳过两三个版本。我知道我这次第一次跳过了 14。所以我认同智能手机制造商，而苹果显然是其中的龙头。
Let's keep moving our next prediction. Biggest business deal of 2024. Biggest business deal of 2024. I went with last year. My prediction was Amazon getting into healthcare, maybe they buy Peloton or Roman hymns, and they have been getting into healthcare a bunch more. And my wildcard was a CCP divesting of TikTok. That didn't happen.
让我们继续前进到我们的下一个预测。2024年最大的商业交易。我去年预测了这个。我的预测是亚马逊进军医疗保健领域，或许他们会收购Peloton或Roman Hymns，而且他们确实在更多的医疗保健领域有所涉足。而我的一个意外之举是中国共产党撤资TikTok，这却没有发生。
Chamop, you went Starlink goes public in a spin out from SpaceX at 75 billion. That didn't happen, but Starlink is doing fantastic. Sax, you said a deal between Putin and she, and then Freberg, you said, petro for one trade, the Saudi China trade.
Chamop，你曾说Starlink将从SpaceX以750亿的估值独立上市。然而实际结果并非如此，但Starlink的表现非常出色。Sax，你说过普京和某人达成了协议，而Freberg，你提到了石油与沙特中的一项贸易，也就是沙中贸易。
Any thoughts on the predictions there? Doesn't look like anybody nailed it. Well, no, actually, Putin, he did make a deal their ties and have been stronger. And the trade between those two countries keeps increasing as a result of the fact that we pushed Russia into China's arms. So that absolutely happened. And what's your prediction, the sure sex biggest business deal? So that's what you got.
你对那些预测有什么想法？看起来似乎没有人预测准确。嗯，实际上，普京做出了协议，他们的关系变得更加紧密。由于我们将俄罗斯推向中国，这两个国家之间的贸易也因此不断增长。所以这绝对是发生了的。那么，你对最有可能的大型商业交易有什么预测呢？这就是你得到的信息。
My biggest business deal is whatever the Fed decides to do to replace or extend BTFP, the bank term funding program. Remember that the BTFP, which is what the Fed used to bail out the regional banking system last year, and was like March or April, it was only supposed to last for one year. It's supposed to be a temporary program.
我最重要的商业交易是美联储决定采取什么行动来取代或延长BTFP（银行期限资金计划）。请记住，BTFP是美联储去年用于拯救地区银行体系的计划，记得是在三月或四月，它原本只有一年的计划，本质上是一个临时性计划。
But I do not think that the balance sheets of regional banks are healthy enough to survive without this continued liquidity from this program. So I think the Fed's going to have to do something to either replace the program, extend the program. They're going to have to do something. And I think that regional banks are still in pretty bad shape with impaired commercial debt portfolios. And they need this liquidity, as long as the yield curve remains inverted. So I think the Fed is going to try and somehow figure out a program to keep these guys liquid until they can de-invert the yield curve. And I think the Fed's trying to massage all of this into place without there being a recession. Seems like they'll be able to do it.
但我认为地区银行的资产负债表并不健康，没有这个持续的流动性支持，它们难以生存。因此，我认为美联储将不得不采取一些措施，要么替代这个计划，要么延长这个计划。他们必须采取行动。而且我认为地区银行的商业债务组合仍然处于相当糟糕的状态，并且只要收益曲线保持倒挂，它们就需要这种流动性支持。因此，我认为美联储将努力找到一个方案，以保持这些机构的流动性，直到收益曲线恢复正常。而且我认为美联储正试图在不引发经济衰退的情况下适应这一切。看起来他们将能够做到。
Jamal, what do you got? I'm going to go with the same thing. I think I was just off by your Starlink with the public. Fascinating. I like it. And I had a similar theme. My wild card last year that the CCP would divest of TikTok. I'm going to say this year that I think TikTok goes public and they'll be under pressure from different political factions to get the CCP off the board. So I'm going to go with by dance, taking going public or TikTok, spinning out and going public, some version of that. Freeburg, what do you got for this year? We've got some continuation bets here from Jay Kalins.
Jamal，你有什么想法？我打算跟你的一样。我觉得你的Starlink和公共利益有所偏差，很有趣。我喜欢这个想法。我去年提出的一个预测是中国共产党会撤资抖音。我今年预测抖音会上市，并且他们会受到不同政治派别的压力让中国共产党离开董事会。所以我觉得字节跳动会上市或者抖音会独立上市，类似这种情况。Freeburg，你对今年有什么预测？Jay Kalins有一些延续性的预测。
Yeah, I would keep going with my PetroEu entre bet. I don't think that the US is going to let Saudi become a nuclear power. So maybe leave that one outstanding. But I think rights holder is getting licensing deals for generative AI. There's going to be a couple of blockbuster deals this year, where you'll see Disney license out of chunk of their library so people can generate on demand, video games or content or I don't know.
是的，我会继续我的PetroEu企业的投注。我认为美国不会让沙特成为核大国，所以也许可以将这个放置在未决之中。但我认为权利持有者正在为生成式人工智能进行许可交易。今年会有几笔重磅交易，你将会看到迪士尼授权他们的部分库存，让人们可以按需生成视频游戏或内容，或者其他我不知道的东西。
You guys remember this company in the early 2000s called Zazzle? Do you remember that company? Yeah, what was that? Printed stuff on mugs. Yeah, and they had a big deal with Disney where the idea was you could put any character in any way you want on any piece of like T-shirt or mug or whatever, merch. And it was like merch and it was a big deal. I think we see that again with generative AI this year, where you can take, for example, a character from a movie and generate them in an image. So anyone that has interesting content rights will start to license it out and get a lot of value from it. Absolutely. Because a couple of big deals like that this year.
你们还记得在2000年代初叫做Zazzle的那家公司吗？你们记得那家公司吗？是啊，那是什么来着？在杯子上印刷的东西。是的，他们和迪士尼达成了一项重大交易，理念是你可以将任何角色以你想要的方式放在任何衣服、杯子或者其他商品上。那是一种商品，并且很受欢迎。我认为今年我们将会再次看到这种现象，但这次与生成式人工智能有关，你可以将电影中的角色生成为图像。因此，任何拥有有趣内容版权的人都将开始许可，并从中获得很多价值。当然了。今年也有几个大交易就是这样。
Okay, most contrarian belief of 2024. I went American exceptionalism source. I think I like that prediction from last year ahead. Chamaq, you said inflation doesn't fall off a cliff as fastest people want. Saks says the bromance between Biden and Zelensky comes to an end. Freeburg, you said 2023 marks the beginning of the end of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. I nailed that one. It didn't fall off a cliff? It didn't. What was inflation in the first quarter of 2023? Just kidding. Oh, I'm like, yeah, I'm like, wait a second. It's like what the **** you're talking about? Yeah, sorry. You're confusing me. I'm like, really? Wait a second. I think you get the Jim Kramer or the Professor Galloway moment for that prediction. Yeah, I think you might have missed that one by a bit. All right. What do you got? Chamaq for this year. What do you got? Most contrarian belief of 2024. I think the enterprise value of open AI goes down.
好的，2024年最具反对派信仰的观点。我参考了美国例外主义的资源。我认为我还是喜欢去年提出的那个预测。查马克，你说通胀不会像大多数人希望的那样迅速下滑。萨克斯说拜登和泽伦斯基之间的友谊将结束。弗里伯格，你说2023年标志着美元作为全球储备货币的终结的开始。这个我预测准了。它没有迅速下滑吗？确实没有。2023年第一季度的通胀率是多少？开个玩笑。噢，我明白了，就是说，等一下，你在说什么？对不起，你让我感到困惑。我是说，真的吗？等一下。我觉得你对于这个预测可能稍微有些误解。嗯，那你有什么新的预测吗？查马克，你对2024年最具反对派信仰的观点有什么看法？我认为Open AI的企业价值会下降。
Okay. I don't think it has anything to do with open AI. I think it has everything to do with the rest of the industry. I think I think there's a couple of factors at play similar to what I just said earlier. But if you actually try to use these tools, which now I have been in my sort of day job as CEO, I've been trying to build models, Sonny's been helping me. My takeaway are two things. Number one is the latency right now amongst all these AI tools makes building production quality code absolutely impossible. So you can't have APIs where you take 30, 40, 50 seconds in between a request to get data back. That's ridiculous. These need to be non-starter 50, 30, 40, 70 milliseconds. Second is the actual cost of a million tokens on any of these platforms is economically untenable if you're trying to build something. So whether it's Amazon, whether it's Together Dayi, whether it's OpenAI, it's extremely, extremely expensive. So I think that capitalism would tell you that if these two things are true, you should expect people to arbitrage that opening. And so if you see cloud services come out that allow you to basically get millisecond latency batch size one on the one hand. And second, where you have pricing for a million tokens that sort of 10, 20 cents, those folks and they'll need to build their own custom hardware to do it. But those folks will multiply the capability of this market by 1000 X. And I think when that happens, the open source models really proliferate proprietary models and close models go under pressure. And the existing economics of how you make money today will get reallocated to those different players. And I think in that, it's going to be very hard for existing folks. And I would say the same is probably true for Nvidia. The folks that have won up until today to maintain a multiple of market cap in this next year, if that happens. And so my prediction is that will happen. And as a result, the enterprise values of those companies and I think OpenAI will be the most obvious will go down. People buying secondary at 90 billion right now will be under one next year. Although it's again, they have to believe that the revenue composition today is sustainable. And if you look under the hood, half the revenue is consumers paying subscriptions. The other half the revenue are enterprises paying for essentially some version of AWS. Yes. But the problem is that version of AWS is economically non functional. It's unsustainable. It's way too expensive and it's way too slow. And by the way, that's just not an open AI problem. It's an entire industry problem. And so if this industry is really going to be real, it needs to be literally dirt cheap and as close to zero as possible. The minute that that happens, that revenue goes away. So then they're just left with the subscription. And by the way, the people that provide that will be the ones that have the hardware to enable that 1000 Xing of the cost, which is Azure AWS. I think these are startups that are building proprietary hardware.
好的。我认为它与OpenAI无关，而与整个行业有关。我认为有几个因素与之前所说的类似。但是如果你真的试着使用这些工具，而我现在作为首席执行官也一直在努力构建模型，Sonny一直在帮助我。我的结论有两点。第一，目前所有这些AI工具的延迟使得构建生产质量代码完全不可能。所以你不能出现在请求数据后等待30、40、50秒的API。那太荒谬了。这些需要在50、30、40、70毫秒范围内，不能有延迟。第二个原因是在任何这些平台上购买一百万个令牌的实际成本在经济上是无法承受的，如果你想要构建一些东西的话。无论是亚马逊、Together Dayi还是OpenAI，它们都非常非常昂贵。所以我认为资本主义会告诉你如果这两点是真的，你应该预计人们会用这个机会牟取利益。所以如果你看到云服务出现，允许你一方面获得毫秒级延迟和批处理大小为1，另一方面价格为一百万令牌大约是10、20美分，这些公司将会把这个市场的能力增加1000倍。我认为当这种情况发生时，开源模型将大量增加，专有模型和封闭模型将面临压力。今天赚钱的现有经济学将重新分配给这些不同的参与者。我认为对于现有的参与者来说，这将非常困难。我认为Nvidia也可能是如此。那些在今天之前获胜并保持市值倍数的公司，如果发生这种情况，将在明年下降。所以我的预测是这种情况将会发生。结果，这些公司的企业价值，我认为OpenAI将会是最明显的，将会下降。目前以900亿美元的市值进行二次购买的人们明年将会减少到一个。尽管如此，他们必须相信当前的收入构成是可持续的。而且如果你看看其内部情况，一半的收入是消费者支付的订阅费，另一半收入则是企业支付的AWS的某个版本。是的。但问题是，AWS这个版本在经济上是不可行的。它是不可持续的。它太过昂贵，而且速度太慢。而且顺便说一句，这不仅仅是OpenAI的问题，而是整个行业的问题。所以，如果这个行业真的要变为现实，它需要是真正廉价的，尽可能接近零。一旦发生这种情况，这部分收入就会消失。然后他们只剩下订阅费。顺便说一句，提供这一点的公司将是那些拥有硬件能力的公司，通过扩大成本的1000倍来实现这一点，这些公司包括Azure和AWS。我认为这些都是正在建造专有硬件的创业公司。
Oh, okay. Wow. So there's another prediction. Freebird, what do you got? 2024 prediction, most contrarian belief.
哦，好的。哇。所以还有另一个预测。自由鸟，你有什么意见？2024年的预测，最具反向思维的信念是什么？
Okay. So I don't think we're past the conflict escalation stage. I think things are only going to continue to mount. So a lot of the theater that we see on a global stage is more fundamentally driven by these big cycles that we're in.
好的。所以我认为我们还没有走出冲突升级阶段。我认为事情只会继续升级。因此，我们在全球舞台上看到的很多戏剧性事件更多地受到我们所处的这些大周期的基本推动。
So I think a big one and a kind of tactical one, I think the big one that's contrarian is that there's an increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for the first time in conflict. And I think that that's conditioned on the fact that there are declining military supplies. There's declining appetite and capacity to support traditional conflict, meat grinder type conflicts that we're seeing spread up everywhere right now. And it were not everywhere, but in a lot of places. And you could see a moment where, as I mentioned in the past, someone gets backed into a corner and a tactical low yield nuclear weapon gets used. And I think that when you do that, it opens up the gates to hell. So it's a little scary. That's why we all joking aside. That's why you bought the radiations. By the way, I don't think this is a high probability. And I'm not joking. I don't think it's a high probability. I think it's like one, call it one to 2% chance something like this happens, but it's 10x where it was five years ago. And so that's my outcome of this is terrifying. Yeah, it's such a significant event that it's definitely one to kind of be thoughtful about.
所以我认为存在一个大问题和一个策略性问题，我认为反向的大问题是，在冲突中首次使用核武器的可能性增加了。我认为这是建立在军事供应不断减少的基础上。对于传统冲突的支持意愿和能力正在下降，我们现在到处都能看到这种面包机式冲突的传播，虽然不是到处都是，但在很多地方都有。你可以看到，就像我之前提到的，某人被逼到绝境，使用了战术性低当量核武器。我认为一旦这样做，地狱的大门就会敞开。所以这有点可怕。开玩笑的时候我们还购置了防辐射物品。顺便说一句，我不认为这是高概率事件。我不是在开玩笑。我认为这种事情发生的可能性只有1%至2%，但是比五年前增加了10倍。所以这是我对这个结果的可怕感觉。是的，这是一个如此重大的事件，绝对值得我们认真思考。
And then the other one that I kind of said was tactical is I think there's a risk that Turkey gets challenged to leave NATO. That a lot of what's going on right now where Turkey is siding with Hamas. This has obviously been talked about and rumored about for a long time. There's no real mechanism, by the way, for kicking a member out of NATO. But I'll share with you guys, there's a lot of political commentary that Turkey cannot be a trusted ally. And obviously that now, you know, Turkey is siding with folks who are actual threats to the West. The US incentive is you don't want to see Turkey with the biggest one of the biggest armies in Europe, run into Russia's arms. You're going to try to keep them in NATO, but there is a real risk that you start to see the first fracturing of NATO happen with Turkey being asked to leave or some negotiation on something that happens this year. So that's one that I keep an eye on that is certainly not top of anyone's mind, but it certainly begins to beg the question of the importance of NATO.
然后还有另一个战术上的问题，我认为有风险挑战土耳其退出北约的局面。目前土耳其正与哈马斯站在一边，这显然已经被长时间地讨论和传闻过。实际上，并没有真正的机制可以将一个成员国踢出北约。但是我想告诉你们，有很多政治评论认为土耳其不能被信任为盟友。显然，如今土耳其正在站在对西方构成实际威胁的人的一边。美国的动机是不希望看到土耳其成为拥有最庞大军队的欧洲国家并向俄罗斯靠拢。他们会尽力将土耳其留在北约，但是存在着真正的风险，即土耳其可能被要求离开北约或者发生一些谈判。所以这是我关注的一个问题，虽然不是任何人头脑中的重点，但它确实开始引发对北约重要性的质疑。
What do you got, Saks? Your most contrarian belief.
Saks，你有什么看法？你最大胆的思想信念是什么？
Well, can I first just make a comment on last year's pick?
嗯，我能否先就去年的选择发表一下评论？
Yes.
是的。
It's okay. So I, you know, last year, I felt like I was going out on a limb predicting a rift in the bromance between Biden and Zelensky because that relationship seemed so tight. And with about four days left in the year, there was this article that came out in Politico that says the Biden administration is quietly shifting its strategy in Ukraine. The article basically says that the administration wants to go on the defensive. And I think pretty clearly, it wants to cease fire in a frozen conflict. It wants to get this conflict sort of out of the way swept under the rug before the election season really cranks into high gear. And the problem they have is that Zelensky does not want to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia that would involve Ukraine losing territory. So there is now a rift between maybe not Biden himself, but let's say Biden operatives, the Biden administration, and what Zelensky wants. And I think this will be a theme in 2024 is how do you reign in Zelensky after you've been telling the public for the last two years that our job is to support whatever Zelensky wants?
没关系。所以，你知道，去年我感觉我在预测拜登和泽连斯基之间的兄弟情谊出现裂痕时冒了风险，因为他们的关系似乎非常密切。到了去年年底，有一篇 Politico 上的文章说拜登政府正在悄悄改变其在乌克兰的战略。这篇文章基本上说，政府希望采取防守策略。而且我觉得很明显，他们希望冻结冲突中停火。在选举季节真正高潮之前，希望把这场冲突解决掉，让其不再成为问题。但他们面临的问题是泽连斯基不愿意与俄罗斯谈判达成一个使乌克兰失去领土的停火协议。因此，现在可能没有出现在拜登本人身上，但可以说是发言人或者整个拜登政府与泽连斯基意愿之间存在着分歧。我认为这将是2024年的一个主题，即在过去两年里我们告诉公众我们的工作是支持泽连斯基的任何要求，但现在我们如何控制泽连斯基。
And your prediction for this year?
你对今年的预测是什么？
So my prediction for this year is that the soft landing gets very bumpy. I think that over the last two months of the year, I think markets got super optimistic. They started pricing in big fed rate cuts. Let's call it one and a half percent. So we had this huge stock market rally in November, December. And I think there's generally a very strong belief that the Fed will be able to pull off the soft landing. I'm not necessarily saying that there's going to be a recession. I just feel like I predicted 10 of the last two recessions. So I keep basically predicting recession when there's not one. But I do think that there's just been too much too soon of this euphoria. And I just think that this year is going to be a lot bumpier than that, both politically and economically.
我对今年的预测是，软着陆将会非常颠簸。我认为，在去年的最后两个月里，市场非常乐观。它们开始预测联邦基准利率将大幅削减，可以称之为1.5%。所以我们在11月和12月大幅度上涨了股市。而且我认为，普遍有一种非常强烈的信念，即美联储将能够成功实现软着陆。我并不一定是说会出现经济衰退，我只是觉得我预测过十次衰退，但却只有两次正确。但我确实认为，这种繁荣来得太快太多了。我只是认为，今年在政治和经济上将变得更加波动不定。
So I think there's just a little bit too much euphoria and over optimism right now. I attempted to go again with American exceptionalism. I think I nailed that last year. America just had an amazing year in 2023 while Xi Jinping made unforced errors and getting rid of capitalism in his country. And nobody's starting companies there on stock market falling apart, real estate falling apart. And now he's coming back to America, as we saw when he had a summit with Biden asking people, please come back and invest again. Huge unforced error. And I think Russia with a huge unforced error losing hundreds of thousands of their citizens, their young people to a senseless war for no reason, and losing customers in the West like Germany, as you pointed out.
所以我认为现在的欣快和过度乐观有一点点过多。我试图再一次强调美国的例外性。我觉得去年我做得很成功。2023年美国刚刚度过了一个了不起的年份，而习近平却在自己的国家犯下了低级错误，试图消除资本主义。在他的国家，没有人会再去创办公司了，股市正在崩溃，房地产也在崩溃。而现在他又回到了美国，正如我们所见，他与拜登进行了峰会，并向人们呼吁，请回到这里再次投资。这是一次巨大的低级错误。而且我认为俄罗斯也犯下了巨大的低级错误，失去了数十万年轻人，参与了毫无意义的战争，没有任何理由，他们还失去了像德国这样的西方客户，正如你所指出的。
Sacks, I think American exceptionalism will continue to soar. But I don't want to take the same prediction. So I also consider two other options, Apple, making huge gains in general AI and then streaming services, right sizing and becoming highly profitable and having a rebound between those two. I think I'm going to go with Apple as my contrarian belief. I think Apple is going to become a player in AI the end of the year. Maybe they reboot Siri, but they're going to figure something out. And I think they're not going to remain on the sidelines when it comes to AI. So I'm going to go with Apple making huge gains in generative AI or AI in general, maybe a new Siri coming soon. Best performing asset of 2024.
萨克斯，我认为美国例外主义将继续蓬勃发展。但我不想作出相同的预测。所以我还考虑了另外两个选项，苹果公司在通用人工智能领域获得巨大收益，然后流媒体服务公司通过适度调整实现高盈利，并在这两者之间实现反弹。我认为我将选择苹果作为我的反向信念。我认为苹果将在年底成为人工智能领域的一名参与者。也许他们会重启Siri，但他们会找到一些解决办法。而且我认为他们不会在人工智能方面保持旁观态度。所以我选择相信苹果在生成式人工智能或普遍人工智能方面取得巨大收益，也许很快会有一个新的Siri问世。2024年表现最好的资产。
In 2023, I went with seed stage investing. I think I'll be proven right in five years. But that's kind of hard to prove in the short term. Chamath, you said cash and the front end of the yield curve. Sacks, you went with short term T-bells as well. And Freberg, you went with semiconductor capital equipment, oil, gas services, pharma, infrastructure. Anybody have thoughts on their predictions from last year? Cash was pretty good at 5%. No kidding, right? As good as it gets. This is not a lot of motivation to enter the markets when you're earning 5.5% risk-free.
在2023年，我开始进行种子阶段投资。我认为在五年内我会被证明是正确的。但在短期内很难证明。Chamath，你说现金和收益率曲线的前端是不错的选择。Sacks，你也选择了短期国债。而Freberg，你选择了半导体设备、石油、天然气服务、医药和基础设施。大家对他们去年的预测有什么想法吗？现金收益率达到了5%，这真是太棒了。想必你们都猜中了。这让人没有多大进入市场的动力，因为你可以无风险地获得5.5%的回报。
Okay, so let's do our 20-24. Twenty-four. Equipment up 60% missing. Good year. Freberg, what do you got? What's your prediction for best performing asset of this coming year? Oh, I took the Uranium ETF. You are a easy money. Whether it plays out in the next 12 months or over time, I'm not sure it's just an inevitability. A lot of folks have this bet on this trade. It's an index on businesses that benefit from mining and producing nuclear power. Money Uranium, producing nuclear power. China is building up 415 nuclear power stations as we talked about. There's a lot of ESG-driven demand and a lot of conflict-driven demand. Big shift underway. A lot of deregulatory effort underway globally to try and get nuclear back on track. You put power back on track. These companies are going to benefit from this big macro cycle. This is an existing ETF or you're saying your role one. No, it's just what it's called Uranium. It's Uranium tracking ETF, your A's the ticker. I like that a lot. I do a lot of esoteric general statements. This one I thought I'd go a little specific. I like it. It's a great prediction. Sentiment has certainly changed here in the US. That trade has been on. Since I'll just tell you guys, it bottomed out in March of this year at 19 bucks. It's up 50 percent since then. In the last five years, it's up to 2x. Plenty of room to run if you look at the underlying assets that BTF tracks.
好的，我们来谈一下我们20到24岁的情况。 二十四。设备不足60％。 今年好年份。弗瑞伯格，你有什么看法？对于即将到来的这一年中，你对最佳表现资产有什么预测？哦，我选择了铀ETF。你真是容易发财。无论它在接下来的12个月内还是随着时间的推移，我都不确定它只是必然性。许多人押注这个交易。这是一项涉及从采矿和生产核能力受益的企业的指数。铀是生产核能的一部分。正如我们所讨论的，中国正在建设415个核电站。有很多基于环境、社会和治理方面的需求以及很多基于冲突的需求。一个重大变革正在进行中。全球范围内正在进行大规模的去监管努力，试图让核能回到轨道上。你将电力带回赛道上。这些公司将受益于这一大宏观周期。这是一个现有的ETF，还是你在说你自己创立的一个？不，它就是叫做铀。它是一种追踪铀的ETF，你看交易代码。我非常喜欢它。我通常做一些比较深奥的一般性陈述。这一次我想具体一点。我喜欢它。这是一个很好的预测。情绪在美国肯定发生了变化。该交易从今年三月份的19美元低点开始上涨，至今已上涨了50％。在过去的五年里，它翻了两倍。从BTF追踪的底层资产来看，还有很大的增长空间。
Chamath, what do you got? Best performing asset of 2024. What's your prediction? I have to do it with the worst performing asset of 2024 because it's a bit of a spread trade. I'm going to take the public software index, TechStock index, and my short is going to be the private tech software companies, the late stage, mostly SaaS companies. I think we've all talked about the reasons why, but I think that the terminal valuations are getting reset in the public markets. I don't think the growth rates are there in the private companies. You're going to have a reset on valuation. In many cases, that reset may just be that they stay at the same valuation three years later, even after doubling revenue or more. The problem is, you will have taken another 30 percent dilution between now and then because of all the stock base comp that these private companies give out.
Chamath，你有什么想法？2024年表现最好的资产是什么？你的预测是什么？我必须用表现最差的资产来做，因为这是一种扩展交易。我打算拿公共软件指数、科技股指数，我的空头交易将是私人科技软件公司，主要是后期阶段、主要是SaaS公司。我认为我们都谈到了原因，但我认为公开市场上的总估值正在重置。我觉得私人公司的增长率已经不在那里。你会看到估值的重置。在许多情况下，这个重置可能仅仅意味着它们在三年后保持相同的估值，即使收入翻番或更多。问题是，由于这些私人公司发放的所有股份的补偿，到那时你将再次被稀释达到30%。
Long the public tech cycle, short the private late stage tech cycle expecting a valuation contraction in the latter. What do you got, SaaS? What do you think is going to be the best performing asset of 2024? Well, I'm really not sure about this. I would urge nobody to actually trade on this. Yes. This is not investment advice. It would be clear. None of this is an investment advice. I'm not trading on this on these predictions. You shouldn't either. My guess here, just a guess, is energy stocks. Energy prices could be among the top performers of 2024, just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking out now and escalating. I agree with Freberg that there are huge risks of escalation in the Middle East. The Ukraine war is still going on. I think not enough attention is being paid to what's happening between Venezuela and Guyana. Venezuela is basically attempting to annex Guyana's offshore oil reserves, which are huge. This is basically just pure theft. Ethiopia also has tense relationships with a few of its neighbors, and I could easily see there being a war that breaks out between Ethiopia and Egypt or Ethiopia and Eritrea. Then that could spill over and create further disruption in the Red Sea. We also still have the Sun Resolved issue of the Houthis. Of course, you have Neocons bring for war with Iran, as they always do. John Bolden just published another piece saying that we have to go to war with Iran. There's just so many ways that the conflict could escalate and create a spike in the price of oil.
我认为公众科技周期会长期存在，而私人后期科技周期则可能在估值上出现收缩。SaaS的前景如何？你认为2024年最佳表现资产会是什么？嗯，我对此真的不确定。我强烈建议大家不要根据这个进行交易。是的，这不是投资建议。我会让大家清楚地明白，这并不是投资建议。我不会根据这些预测进行交易，你也不应该。我猜想，仅仅是一个猜想，是能源股票。能源价格有可能成为2024年表现排名靠前的资产之一，因为目前存在着很大的冲突风险并且可能升级。我同意弗雷伯格的观点，中东地区存在着巨大的升级风险。乌克兰战争仍在进行中。我认为人们没有足够关注委内瑞拉和圭亚那之间的事态发展。委内瑞拉基本上是试图吞并圭亚那的海上油田储量，这是纯粹的掠夺行为。埃塞俄比亚与一些邻国关系紧张，我很容易能想象埃塞俄比亚与埃及或埃塞俄比亚与厄立特里亚之间会爆发战争。然后这可能会蔓延并在红海地区引发更大的动荡。也还有胡塞武装问题没有得到解决。当然，新保守主义者还在呼吁对伊朗发动战争，这一直是他们的惯例。约翰·博尔顿刚发表了另一篇文章，称我们必须对伊朗开战。冲突可能升级并导致油价飙升的方式实在太多了。
In my heart of hearts, I believe the best performing asset will still be seed stage startups. I'm going to go with consumer comfort services. I think as austerity measures and this, whether we have a soft landing or a recession, it's clear the consumers have spent all their money. They're going to go for small luxuries like DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber, small things to have great experiences. I'm talking my book in two out of those three, which I own shares in. I think consumers are going to keep treating themselves to getting some DoorDash or getting an Airbnb and going to Japan or whatever it happens to be. So consumer comfort services is my pick for the best performing asset of 2024. Worst performing asset. Let's go right on to worst performing asset. We're cooking with oil, worst performing asset. I went with energy, chamapo, and tech energy, junk debt, saxophone, with office hours in San Francisco, and Freberg went with consumer credit. I think we nailed it in almost all those cases here. What do we got for 2024? It's actually got a 2024 prediction of worst performing asset. Again, this is not investing advice. Yeah. So I'm not going to trade on this. So just take it with a grain of salt. But I would bet against the Magnificent Seven, just because I believe that what goes up must come down and the hotter they are, the harder they fall. I'm not saying that the Magnificent Seven are actually going to go down. I'm just saying that the S&P 493 are going to catch up a little bit. So I would book this as a spread trade where I would bet on the S&P 493 over the Magnificent Seven. Because again, I just think that there's got to be some catching up here. And the huge gains made by the Magnificent Seven were really based on story, based on AI. And I don't see why those gains should be limited to the Magnificent Seven if AI is going to place a big role in the economy.
在我内心深处，我相信表现最佳的资产仍然是种子阶段的初创企业。我打算选择消费者舒适服务。我认为随着紧缩措施的推行，无论是软着陆还是衰退，消费者已经花光了所有的钱。他们会选择小的奢侈品，比如DoorDash、Airbnb、Uber等，以获得美好的体验。我说的其中两个，我拥有股份。我认为消费者会继续享受一些DoorDash或者去一个Airbnb，然后去日本或者其他地方。因此，消费者舒适服务是我对2024年表现最佳的资产的选择。表现最差的资产。让我们继续谈谈表现最差的资产。我们用能源、chamapo和科技能源、次级债务、旧金山的办公时间以及Freberg选择了消费信贷。我认为在这些情况下，我们几乎都预测准确了。那么我们对2024年的表现最差的资产有什么看法呢？实际上，对2024年表现最差的资产进行预测。再次强调，这不是投资建议。是的，所以我不会根据这个进行交易，只是拿来参考。但我会把赌注下在S&P 493上，而不是辉煌七人组上。因为我只是觉得这里必须有些变化。辉煌七人组取得的巨大收益主要是基于故事和人工智能。如果人工智能在经济中发挥重要作用，我不明白为什么这些收益应该限于辉煌七人组。
Chama, I too, what you predicted earlier about opening, I lose things in value. My worst performing asset in 2024 is LLM startups. I believe they've been massively overvalued. And I believe open source is making an incredible run at them. And I think they're going to hit parity. And there's too many players. This is like having 15 search engines or 20 amazons. There's just too many players and there's too much parity. The prices make no sense. And I think they're all going to come down by 50, 60, 70, 80% in terms of their valuations. That won't get marked in their books, but that will be the reality of where their stocks will trade on the private markets.
茶玛，我也同样认为你之前关于开启的预测是对的，我失去了一些资产的价值。在2024年，我的最差表现的资产是LLM初创企业。我认为它们被高估了。我相信开源正在对它们发起一场令人难以置信的挑战。我认为它们会达到同等地位，并且参与者太多了。这就像有15个搜索引擎或者20个亚马逊一样。参与者太多，竞争太激烈。这些价格毫无道理。我认为它们的估值将会下降50%，60%，70%，甚至80%。这在它们的账簿上可能不会有实质性的体现，但这将是它们在私人市场上交易的真实情况。
Freeberg, which are worst performing asset. Worst performing asset. Just based on what I shared earlier, I would go short vertical SaaS, vertical software companies and long cloud providers that have AI tools and platforms that will allow enterprises to build custom applications in a low cost, low code way. And so you could obviously pick the companies that would go in that bucket, go along those cloud bucket and go short the vertical bucket. Is there like a per seat price threshold that you think would kind of demarcate the companies that you think are at risk? In other words, like I invest in plenty of SaaS companies that sell seats at five, 10 bucks per month. I'm just like very skeptical. They're not going to get that. That is worth an enterprise is wild to recreate that software. And so I'll give you an example that there's a vertical software provider. We're paying five grand per seat per year right now. And we look at that and we're like, okay, it's basically a data management tool for our particular vertical. Let's just go recreate that and did it very quickly, very low cost. And we're going to replace it. Cut that out. I don't want to say that, but yeah. It's **** is it? So it's like, you know, very specific, very expensive. But I mean, Zach, you could probably see the same thing happen in sales, CRM type tools that are obviously also very expensive. And how much is it data? You don't receive how much do you pay? Five grand. For a year. So that's basically. And every employee is on it. Over $400 a seat per month. We have like 100 employees. So we're paying like 500 grand. And so one of our software engineers is like, this spins up a replacement for we're going to roll it out and Q1. Okay. So is there is there like a per seat per month price that you think starts to where it doesn't work? Is it 50 bucks? What is the number? I mean, I do the math, but yeah, it shouldn't be in the range that it's at for sure. But a lot of these guys were they had a monopoly and it wasn't worth the company's time to try and invest in software at the price point that they were charging. They found a market. Now the market has to compress. So I'm not saying that the companies go away, but I do think pricing compression is going to hurt these businesses a lot. If you could pay 50,000 for the same software instead of 500, you would not have spun it up yourself. So there is a reasonable number between those two. And that reasonable number might be 250 or something. But here's the thing that we need to also factor in, which is that free burex companies, that engineer could also then just release that product for everybody else to use at 10. And everybody else will then use it because it'll be good enough. And that 80% assumption will take over the market.
基于我之前分享的内容，我认为最差的资产是垂直SaaS（Software as a Service）和垂直软件公司，相反，我会买入那些拥有具有人工智能工具和平台的云服务提供商，这些工具和平台能够以低成本、低代码的方式让企业构建定制应用程序。你认为有没有一个每个用户价格的阈值，可以界定那些你认为有风险的公司？换句话说，我投资了很多每个用户每月销售几美元的SaaS公司，但我对它们实现这种销售量持怀疑态度。对企业而言，重新创建这种软件是不切实际的。比如，我们目前正在支付给一个垂直软件提供商每个用户每年5000美元的费用。我们看到这个费用后，我们觉得可以很快、很低成本地重新创建出类似的工具，并计划替代它。我不想说太多，但是是的，它不值得这个价钱。所以说，这是一个非常具体和昂贵的例子。但我想Zach你也可能在销售和CRM等工具中看到类似的情况，这些工具显然也非常昂贵。那这些数据需要多少费用？五千美元一年。所以基本上每个员工每月的费用就是400多美元。我们有大约100名员工，所以我们每年支付约50万美元的费用。因此，我们的一位软件工程师决定自己开发一个替代品，在第一季度发布。所以你认为有没有一个每个用户每月的价格，超过这个价格就不划算了？是50美元吗？具体的数字我得做个计算，但是肯定不应该是现在的价格范围内的。但是很多公司以前都垄断了市场，以他们现在的定价，公司不值得再去尝试开发自己的软件。现在市场必须要压缩了。所以我不是说这些公司会消失，但我认为价格的压缩会严重打击这些企业。如果你可以支付5万美元来获取相同的软件，而不是付500万美元，你肯定不会选择自己开发一个替代品。所以在这两者之间存在一个合理的价格区间，可能是250之类的数字。但是我们还需要考虑一点，那就是这些公司的工程师也可以将产品以10美元的价格提供给其他人使用，因为它足够好用。这种假设下，80%的份额将占领市场。
Yeah, that's my point. That's going to be pricing compression. This is the thing like, I think that people underestimate how deflationary this whole thing is. It's like two to three orders of magnitude more deflationary than people have any inkling.
是的，那就是我的观点。这将会导致价格压缩。我认为人们低估了整个情况的通缩性。它比人们能够想象的通缩程度要高两到三个数量级。
Yeah, interestingly, I had David Hanmar Hanson on this week in startups and they're releasing something called one stock home where they're going to charge for software one time like we used to do. And their first product is a slack killer. And so the idea of paying per seat for slack, what they're planning to do is just charge you, you know, 95. No, you find a hosting company. So you host it. Okay, so it's cool. It's old school. It's old school on prem software on prem. And then you pay and you pay an upgrade fee when you upgrade the software, basically. I think they're going to pay them like a maintenance percentage. That's what it's going to work.
是的，有趣的是，这周我请来了David Hanmar Hanson参加创业节目，他们正在发布一个叫做One Stock Home的东西，他们打算像我们以前一样只收取一次软件费用。而他们的第一个产品是一个取代Slack的软件。所以原本为每个用户付费的Slack模式，他们计划做的是只收取你95美元，不，你需要找一个托管公司来托管它。所以很酷，这是老派的，是企业内部的软件，然后当你升级软件时需要支付升级费用。我觉得他们可能会按照维护费用的百分比收费。大概就是这样。
School enterprise software, right? The pricing model was the revenue model was always built it when you did a sale, you would make on average 20% of the revenue per year in updates these. And so now, and then everything switched to SaaS, which continues to pay and support maintenance, all that kind of stuff. So it's never they say it's one time, it's one time for the software. But if you want to stay up to date and get support and patches and all that kind of stuff. Yeah. And the school enterprise software model was always like, figure 20% of the install cost. And by the way, this is one of the reasons why Oracle made so much money is they did a roll up of all these old school on prem software companies that weren't growing. But the maintenance fees were just rolling in forever. And they rolled all that stuff up. And then probably raised the fees.
学校企业软件，对吧？定价模型是收入模型，总是在售出时建立的。你每年可以通过软件更新赚取平均收入的20%。然后，现在一切都转向了SaaS，继续支付和支持维护等等。所以，他们从来没有说过这是一次性费用，对软件来说是一次性的。但是如果你想保持最新并获得支持和补丁等等，需要付费。是的。而且，学校企业软件模型总是从安装费用中计算出20%。顺便说一句，这也是甲骨文赚钱如此之多的原因之一，他们整合了所有这些不再增长的老式软件公司，但是维护费用却一直在滚滚而来。他们整合了所有这些，并可能提高了费用。
I mean, for me, you know, when you have a 20 person company, 50 person company, the slack fees don't seem like a big deal. But when you get to, you know, when you're spending 500,000 or a million dollars a year on something like slack, you know, then maybe you would consider other options. And I know people at large organizations that have done that because there's an open source competitor to it. So that does exist in the world. Okay.
我的意思是在我看来，当你有一个20人的公司、50人的公司时，slack的费用似乎不是什么大问题。但是当你每年在类似slack这样的东西上花费50万美元或百万美元时，你可能会考虑其他选择。我知道一些大型组织的人已经这样做了，因为有一个开源竞争对手存在于世界上。好的。
But what Freeberg is bringing up is like, why would you support 500,000 to million dollar year, objects for software? I mean, can you really put a model together that shows that that's somehow a creative to you, especially if you're a money losing startup? It just doesn't make any logical sense. I understand that it happens. And the fact that that software, a SaaS company has been able to make 80 to 90% margins and grow on that, it has created the best business model in history. But I think what may become apparent now is that the SaaS business model is really a temporary phenomenon that existed between ubiquity of the internet and the development of AI and low cost, low code tools for developing software.
但是，Freeberg所提出的问题是，为什么要支持每年价值50万到100万美元的软件呢？我的意思是，你真的能够构建一个模型来证明这对你来说在某种程度上是有创造性的，尤其是如果你是一家亏损的初创公司？这根本就没有任何逻辑意义。我知道这种情况确实存在。事实上，这种SaaS公司能够获得80%到90%的利润，并且在此基础上实现增长，这确实创造了历史上最好的商业模式。但我认为现在可能显而易见的是，SaaS商业模式实际上是一个存在于互联网普及和AI以及低成本低代码软件开发工具发展之间的临时现象。
Yeah, it was an arbitrage of the dearth of engineers. It was the gross margin that was correlated to the lack of insurance. And now that the work that software engineers could have done has been automated into software itself, you are going to see a lot of that arbitrage. Say differently, Freeberg, you could say like the number of engineers has now multiplied by a million fold. That's right. And now everyone has them available. So then they can build the margins. We're not going to be 90%. The gross margin is maybe 30%. And so everything gets competed away and pricing goes down, pricing gets compressed. And that's why this is a big macro trend for me. And I'm just seeing it across every company, everyone's rethinking whether or not the BBC fees for all different types of software tools.
是的，这是因为工程师短缺所带来的套利。这与缺乏保险有关的，是毛利率。现在软件工程师本来可以完成的工作已经被自动化成为软件本身了，你会看到很多这样的套利。换句话说，弗里伯格，你可以说工程师的数量已经增加了百万倍。是的，现在每个人都可以使用他们。所以他们可以建立毛利。我们不会是90%了，毛利可能是30%。所以所有东西都会竞争，定价下降，定价被压缩。这就是为什么对我来说，这是一个重大的宏观趋势。我只是看到这在每个公司都出现，每个人都在重新思考BBC是否适用于各种软件工具。
By the way, the part of that, which is economically true, is if you look at every other category in the economy, and you look at the gross margin profile of businesses that are not pure plate tech, we have grown up and we've monetized this belief that tech companies not only can start at 80 to 90%, but stay there in depth. Stay there. Yeah, they should be at 40%. Not even every other market can start off in the 50, 60, 70% when they're nascent. But capitalism competes away those markets down to 30 to 40%. And a best in class business generates 20 to 25% e-bit dem margins on a sustained basis. So if you believe that the average best run company is a 35% gross margin business with 20 to 25% free cash real margins, tech stocks have a long way to go down.
顺便说一下，其中经济上可行的部分是，如果你看看经济中的其他各个领域，以及那些不是纯粹的科技公司的企业的毛利润率，我们已经成长并实现了这样一种信念，即科技公司不仅可以以80%至90%的利润率起步，而且可以保持在这个水平上。确实，他们应该下降到40%。其他市场在起步阶段甚至无法达到50、60、70%的利润率。但是资本主义竞争将这些市场压缩到30%至40%。而最佳经营的企业在持续的基础上能够产生20%至25%的税后利润率。因此，如果你相信最佳经营的企业平均毛利润率是35%，自由现金税后利润率为20%至25%，那么科技股票还有很长的下调空间。
Exactly. Exactly. Software companies. Yeah, software companies. But if it's priced below the cost of you rebuilding it, then you're just a buyer. No, no, the point is, the point is like, when somebody does that, so Freedbrook's company did that work, he doesn't even need to need, want to make a profit from that software to just say, anybody else can use this. I have an auto GPT that will basically configure myself to you if you want to use it. And now that N plus first company who's starting up with two or three people can now raise an order of magnitude less money and will write the GPT that connects to his. And now has this. So this is my point where like it just it's it's just a race to the bottom. Yeah.
没错，没错，软件公司。是的，软件公司。但是，如果它的价格低于你重新构建它的成本，那你只是一个买家。不，不，关键是，当有人这样做的时候，比如Freedbrook的公司做了那项工作，他甚至不需要需要，也不想从这个软件中获得利润，只是说，任何人都可以使用这个软件。我有一个自动的GPT，如果你想使用它，它基本上会自动配置给你。现在，第N+1个只有两到三个人的创业公司现在可以筹集数量级更少的资金，并编写与他的GPT连接的GPT。现在他也有了这个。所以这就是我的观点，这只是一个向底部竞争的过程。是的。
All right. Last year for our most anticipated trend, Chamath and I both picked austerity. Feels like that came to fruition. It's actually picked. You're kidding, right? We did not see any austerity. We added like two trillion to the the stock, 34 trillion. I was talking about consumers and companies and individuals. Well, consumers didn't didn't cut either. I mean, they kept spending and in fact, credit card debt is not at the highest level. It's ever been. So where's the austerity? I think it's happening right where people are maxed out. You're already starting to see it happen with travel in some of those areas. But yeah, we could be off by six months on this one.
好的。去年，我们最期待的趋势是紧缩政策，Chamath和我都选了它。感觉好像它已经实现了。确实是实现了。你在开玩笑吧？我们没有看到任何紧缩政策。我们增加了大约2万亿美元的股票和34万亿美元的债务。我指的是消费者和公司和个人。嗯，消费者也没有削减开支。他们继续花钱，事实上，信用卡债务达到了历史最高水平。那么紧缩政策在哪里？我认为它正在人们已经达到极限的地方发生。你已经开始在旅游和其他领域看到它发生了。但是，或许我们对这一点有误差，可能差了六个月。
Zach, you said Trump's influence in the GOP wanes. That was definitely wrong. Yeah. That was wishful thinking. Freeburg, Selgene, Deriput. It's wishful for you too. You know, I mean, I don't remember again. You don't want him as your dad to date. Well, I can explain that. I mean, at the end of 2022, we had that election that was supposed to be a red wave and it turned into a red puddle. Remember that? And a reason it was a big loser for the GOP and a lot of the candidates, I'd say in particular, the candidates who had been endorsed and supported by Trump ended up losing and not doing very well. So and then by contrast, it seemed like the one part of the country where the Republicans have done incredibly well was in Florida, where obviously, the San Francisco is one by like 20 points and added seats to their majority in the legislature. So it seemed like going into the year that the Sances was kind of the heir apparent and Trump's influence would wane. But like you said, that may have been wishful thinking is clearly not what's happened. But a big part of the reason why Trump's influence is greater than ever is because of all this lawfare, all these indictments against him and this prosecution and persecution of him by Biden and his minions. It's really, I think, galvanized the base to support Trump.
扎克，你说特朗普对共和党的影响减弱了。那显然是错误的。是的，那是一厢情愿的想法。Freeburg，Selgene，Deriput对你来说也是一厢情愿的。你知道的，我是说，我忘记了。你不想让他成为你的约会对象。好吧，我可以解释。我是说，2022年底，我们有过一次本应该是共和党赢得压倒性胜利的选举，但结果却变成了惨败。还记得吗？这对共和党来说是一次巨大的失败，尤其是那些获得特朗普支持和认可的候选人最为明显，他们最后都输了，表现得不好。而与此形成鲜明对比的是，似乎共和党在佛罗里达州取得了巨大成功，显然，他们在那里赢得了20个百分点以上的胜利，并增加了立法机构的席位。因此，在今年初，桑切斯看起来是最有可能继任的人，而特朗普的影响力可能会减弱。但正如你所说，这可能是一厢情愿的想法，显然并非如此。特朗普的影响力之所以比以往任何时候都要大，主要是因为他面临了诸多法律纠纷，被拘捕和迫害，这些都是拜拜登及其追随者所赐。我认为，这真的激发了支持特朗普的基本群体。
Freeburg, last year, you said, sell gene therapy becoming more mainstream. Had that one pan out your prediction, most in pistachian. I don't know about mainstream, but I mean, we're seeing we've seen more approvals this year. It's been good. I mean, steady, steady pace of the sickle cell product come up. Sickle cell came to market. Yep. There's a few more that got approved. So in cell therapy, so it's great. And we're seeing good progress there. And I remember there's like over 1000 in clinicals. So there's this tidal wave coming to market searing of cell and gene therapies. They're going to have a profound effect on a lot of disease conditions. So really exciting.
去年，Freeburg，你说过基因疗法将越来越普及。你的这个预测实现了吗？对比Pistachian的大部分人来说，我不知道是否普及，但是我是说，我们今年看到了更多的批准。这是好消息。我的意思是，稳步地推出了镰刀细胞产品。镰刀细胞上市了。是的。还有几个被批准了的细胞疗法。所以非常棒。我们在这方面看到了很好的进展。我记得在临床实验中有超过1000个项目。所以有一股潮水正在涌向市场，将席卷细胞和基因疗法。它们将对许多疾病状况产生深远影响。非常令人兴奋。
Freeburg, you want to continue and tell us what your most anticipated. Oh, so this year, I'm really excited. Based on the progress we've seen in 2023 of predictive models, AI driven discovery of novel molecules, materials, and methods of production in bio pharma, in chemical engineering, lots of new materials and new drugs that are actually coming out of software, not coming out of brute force, wet lab discovery processing. And then we're also seeing these really amazing generative systems on production processes and chemistry that are going to unlock all of these new products and grow up costs. Going back to the deflationary point, not only does this introduce new products into the world that are going to benefit humanity, but it reduces the cost of making them and reduces the footprint of making them. So there's a lot of great benefit coming from these predictive modeling tool that's starting to percolate its way into these industries. So I'm excited about seeing what comes to market this year. I'm sure we're going to have a science corner at some point this year that says, look at this amazing new thing that was discovered in software and it works. And it's going to be really cool.
Freeburg，你想继续告诉我们你最期待的是什么。嗯，今年我真的很兴奋。基于我们在2023年看到的预测模型的进展，以及人工智能驱动的新颖分子、材料和生物制药生产方法的发现，在化学工程领域涌现了许多通过软件而非粗暴力的湿实验发现处理而来的新材料和新药物。此外，我们还看到了在生产过程和化学领域中的这些非常惊人的生成系统，这些系统将解锁所有这些新产品并减少成本。回到通缩的观点，这不仅会为世界带来新产品，使人类受益，而且还降低了制造成本和足迹。因此，这些预测建模工具正在逐渐渗入这些行业，带来了很多巨大的好处。所以我很期待看到今年市场上推出的东西。我相信今年我们肯定会有一个科学角落，能够展示出这项在软件中被发现并且实际有效的神奇新事物。这将非常酷。
Okay, what do you got, Chamath, for your most anticipated trend of 2024? What are you most anticipating, Chamath? I think this is the most important year for Bitcoin that has ever existed. We are probably days away from a series of ETFs being approved. And so this is the moment for Bitcoin to use that old term, cross the chasm and really seeing mainstream adoption, where our parents and our grandparents understand what it is, can buy it and then do buy it. And I think that if all of this comes to pass, Bitcoin will be a part of the traditional financial lexicon by the end of 2024. So that is my most anticipated trend of the year.
好的，Chamath，你对2024年最期待的趋势有什么看法？你最期待什么，Chamath？我认为这是比特币有史以来最重要的一年。我们可能只有几天就可以看到一系列的交易所交易基金（ETFs）得到批准。因此，这是比特币真正走向主流采用的时刻，用那个老术语来说，就是跨越鸿沟，真正实现大众接受，让我们的父母和祖父母了解它，可以买入并且真的购买。我认为，如果所有这些都实现，到2024年年底比特币将成为传统金融词汇的一部分。因此，这就是我对今年最期待的趋势。
What do you got, Sax, for your most anticipated trend of the year, Sax? Well, Chamath says a pretty good one. I think there's a version of that same thing in AI. I mean, it's hard to know exactly what all the advancements are going to be in AI. But when we look back on it in five or 10 years, it's going to be pretty clear that the exponential pace of advancement in AI continued. And so I can't say exactly what those breakthroughs are going to be this year, but there certainly are going to be some. And I think we'll see those innovations continue to percolate down to more and more of the average mainstream consumer.
Sax，你最期待的趋势有什么呢？嗯，Chamath说了一个相当不错的趋势。我觉得在人工智能领域也有类似的趋势。我是说，很难准确知道人工智能的所有进展会是什么样的。但是当我们在五到十年后回顾时，很清楚的是人工智能的快速进步呈指数级增长。所以我不能确定今年会有哪些突破，但肯定会有一些。而且我认为我们会看到这些创新继续向越来越多的主流消费者传播。
Sax, once again, you and I are simpatico. I picked my most anticipated trend of 2024 as efficiency in the form of AI advances and outsourcing. Basically, a lot of Americans don't want to work or they want to work from home or they want high salaries. We have record low unemployment. Thanks to Biden. I'm joking. But all of this is forcing people to build robots, AI, and software to route around and make things more efficient. And I think the number one trend I'm seeing from startups and they tend to adopt this stuff early is outsourcing to all other geographies around the world for work, because it's so easy once you have a work from home philosophy or paradigm at your company.
再一次，你和我对此意见一致。我认为2024年最令人期待的趋势是人工智能的进步和外包形式的高效率。基本上，许多美国人不想工作，或者他们想在家工作，或者他们想要高薪水。我们的失业率创下了历史新低，多亏了拜登（这是个玩笑）。但所有这些都迫使人们开发机器人、人工智能和软件，通过优化来提高效率。而我观察到初创公司的首要趋势是，他们倾向于早期采用这些技术，在全球范围内将工作外包到其他地区，因为一旦你的公司建立了在家工作的理念或范式，这变得非常容易。
Well, adding somebody from Portugal, Manila, Argentina, Canada is the same as adding somebody from outside of New York City or Silicon Valley or LA, but you can do so at a third of the price for somebody maybe who really wants the work. And so I think efficiency is my most anticipated trend, but in the form of AI and outsourcing.
嗯，在往葡萄牙、马尼拉、阿根廷、加拿大等地添加某人，与添加来自纽约市、硅谷或洛杉矶以外地区的某人没有什么区别，但你可以以三分之一的价格雇佣到那些真的想要这份工作的人。因此，我认为效率是我最期待的趋势，但以人工智能和外包的形式出现。
Okay, now media, everybody loves we do our most anticipated media for 2024 for last year. I had Oppenheimer. Wow, that was great. Chamath, you had Dune Part 2, that was delayed. SACU also had Oppenheimer. What did you think of Oppenheimer, SACU? Did it deliver for you? Have you seen it? I thought it was good, not great. It was very long. It's not a movie I need to see a second time. Let's put it that way.
好的，现在轮到媒体了，每个人都很喜欢我们为去年最期待的2024年媒体做的讨论。我选了Oppenheimer。哇，真是太好了。Chamath，你选了Dune第二部，但它推迟了。SACU也选了Oppenheimer。SACU，你对Oppenheimer有什么看法？它达到你的期望吗？你看过吗？我觉得它还不错，但不是很出色。它很长。这不是我需要第二次观看的电影。就这样说吧。
Okay. And Freiberg, you said generative AI based media. For this year, I have to confess I have inside information. So my prediction is going to be the winner. It turns out our favorite DJ is dropping a new album in 2024. And I got a release track. So my most anticipated media, I'll just play the Rope B. Unreleased track here. What is this? According to NASA, there's a new look at Uranus. Uranus. Talk about my Uranus. Uranus. Is this Young Spielberg? This is Young Spielberg coming at you, the summer jam of the year. Uranus. How was your whole last year? It's Oppenheimer. Well, there it is. Talk about my anus coming at you. That's a banger. He obviously likes the deep bass of my voice. It does like the deep bass of your voice in New Zealand. Yes. So that's a banger. That's going to be, I think, that's going to carry. It's going to be the summer anthem. The new album from Young Spielberg dropping. That's the lead title track, Uranus coming at you.
好的。弗莱堡，你说基于生成人工智能的媒体。对于今年，我必须承认我有内幕消息。所以我的预测将会是获胜者。原来我们最喜欢的DJ将在2024年推出新专辑。而我拥有其中一首未发布的歌曲。所以我最期待的媒体，我就在这里播放叫做“Rope B”的未发布歌曲。这是什么？根据NASA的消息，对天王星有了新的认识。天王星。说到我的天王星。天王星。这是年轻版的斯皮尔伯格吗？这是年轻版的斯皮尔伯格向你们招呼，是今年的夏日热门歌曲。天王星。你上一年怎么样？这是奥本海默。好吧，就是这样。说说我的肛门向你们走来。真是一首爆款。他显然喜欢我声音的低音部分。在新西兰，他确实喜欢你的声音的低音部分。是的。所以这是个绝杀。我认为这将成为夏天的主打曲。年轻版斯皮尔伯格的新专辑即将发布。这是主题曲，叫做“天王星”，向你们走来。
I also am looking forward to Gladiator 2 is coming out. Really Scott Lucius, the nephew of Commodus is a grown man. It's going to be awesome, I hope. Netflix's three-body problem. If you haven't heard the books, they're great. That's being done by the Game of Thrones, guys. That's going to come out of the awesome. That's going to be awesome. D&D. Anyway, three-body problem. Glad you and two for me. Once the books ran out, they were kind of on their own there and the show declined. It was a terrible last season. In this case, the three-body problem is a complete series and it's mind-blowing in terms of its epicness.
我也很期待《角斗士2》的上映。霍安·斯科特（Lucius）已经是 成年人了，他是康茂德斯的侄子。这将会是非常棒的，我希望如此。还有Netflix的《三体问题》。如果你还没听说过这本书，它们很棒。这由《权力的游戏》的创作者打造，肯定会非常精彩。D&D，即《权力的游戏》创作者。无论如何，《三体问题》非常让人期待。对于那些故事书已经告一段落的情况来说，他们正在自我发展，而且剧集的质量下降了。最后一季真是糟糕透了。而在《三体问题》中，整个系列都被完整还原，这在其史诗般的程度上令人震撼。
Saks, what's your most anticipated media of 2024? Is there a Putin biography coming out? Is it Alex Jones's biography, 10-part series on Netflix? What are you looking forward to? I agree with you about Gladiator 2. We actually have some lotes and movies. I'm also looking forward to House of the Dragon season 2. But one project I will give a little plug to is Jimmy Sony's book, The Founders, which is the story of PayPal and the entrepreneurs who shaped Silicon Valley. They came out in 2022. The reason I'm mentioning it is because I optioned this book along with Jack Selby, who's another PayPal mafia alum who has a film company. We've optioned this and we have just made a deal with Drake's company called Dream Crew to turn this into some sort of television series. Could be done as a docu-
Saks，你对2024年最期待的媒体作品是什么？有普京的传记要出版吗？是不是亚历克斯·琼斯在Netflix上的10集传记？你期待什么？我同意你对《角斗士2》的观点。我们实际上有一些电影和剧集在等待。我也期待《龙之家》第二季。但是有一个项目我想要稍微宣传一下，那就是吉米·索尼的书《创始人》，讲述了PayPal和塑造硅谷的企业家的故事。它于2022年出版。我之所以提到它是因为我和杰克·塞尔比（另一位PayPal集团成员，也拥有一家电影公司）一起购买了该书的选项权，并与德雷克的公司Dream Crew达成了一项协议，将其改编为某种电视系列。可以拍成纪录片形式。
Wait, did you say Drake, the musician Drake? He actually has a very successful production company called Dream Crew. There are the producers of Euphoria, which is this huge hit on HBO. Terrifying. So it is kind of a terrifying show. If you have kids, it's terrifying. It is terrifying. It's an incredible show about terrifying. It is scary. Many of that is a big hit. So they've produced a lot of, not just music, but television content. They're very interested in the story. And so we're partnering with them to create a TV show. So hopefully that comes together this year.
等一下，你是说音乐人Drake？他其实有一家非常成功的制作公司叫做Dream Crew。他们是HBO热门剧集《欢乐合唱团》的制作人。太可怕了。所以这确实是一个可怕的节目。如果你有孩子，那真是太可怕了。它真的是一个关于恐怖的令人难以置信的节目。它很吓人。很多人都对它非常着迷。所以他们不仅制作音乐，还制作电视内容。他们对故事非常感兴趣。所以我们正在与他们合作制作一部电视节目。希望今年能够实现。
Are you in production this year on it or is it? No, it's going to development this year. Development. Hopefully. You get any two credits, Max? Yeah. How much does the money on the rest of us to get EP credits? 50 grand. Is it a 50 grand or is it a 50 grand? No, it's a little. This is going to be an expensive one. Oh, really? Well, who's your dream? Is it HBO? Is it Dream or Netflix? Yeah, who fights HBO or Netflix? Ultimately, a studio would make this. Right. You would want HBO or Netflix, I take it. Those are the top two in terms of making high quality stuff. They'd be really good. Yeah, it doesn't have to be those two, but they'd be good. It could be Amazon Prime. I mean, there's a lot of these.
你们今年是在制片吗，还是在开发中？不，今年会进行开发。开发。希望如此。Max，你拿到两个学分了吗？是的。我们其他人还需要多少钱才能得到制片学分？五万美元。是五万吗，还是五万？不，有点少。这将是一部昂贵的作品。哦，真的吗？那你梦想合作的是谁？是HBO吗？是Dream还是Netflix？是的，是谁与HBO或Netflix竞争？最终，一个制片公司会制作这部作品。对。你希望是HBO或Netflix吧，我猜。他们是制作高质量内容的前两家公司。他们会很不错。是的，不一定非要是这两家，但他们不错。还可以是Amazon Prime。我是说，有很多选择。
And who are you hoping a young sack? Who would play a young sack? Good question. That's a good question. Who would play a young David Sacks? What's the name of the guy that's dating Zendaya? What's his name? Tom Holland. How about that? Tom Peter Parker? Peter Parker? Yeah. How about Billy Bobby Brown? For you, one guy can play a young sex that it would be Ryan Dossack. Well, you guys are really shooting the moon with this. Hmm. Tom Holland's interesting. J. Kelv Busy on the internet right now. He's going to give you a look. I'm looking. I'm looking on the internet for a young actor to play a USAC. Well, well, what the audience come back to that? You let the audience decide who plays a young sex. Yeah.
你希望有个年轻的人演萨克斯吗？谁会演一个年轻的萨克斯？好问题。那是个好问题。谁会演一个年轻的大卫·萨克斯？与Zendaya约会的那个人叫什么名字？他叫什么名字？汤姆·荷兰。这怎么样？汤姆·彼得·帕克？彼得·帕克？对。那比利·鲍比·布朗怎么样？对你来说，有个人可以演一个年轻的萨克斯，那就是瑞恩·多萨克。嗯，你们这样真的很有野心。汤姆·荷兰很有趣。J·凯尔·忙于上网。他会给你一个选择的。我在上网找一个年轻演员来演美菲德尔。好吧，那观众会回来决定谁来演年轻的萨克斯。是的。
Chavath, you looking for anything in media in 2024? Did you have anything for us to look out for? Jimmy Donaldson, Mr. Beast, added 100 million subscribers on YouTube in 2023. More than two times the next largest channel. And if you watch his content, Mr. Beast channel, it's incredible. And that has become event based viewing now for hundreds of millions of people. So I am really excited to see what production value gets cranked out in 2024 from these guys. But my that's my most anticipated media is Mr. Beast.
Chavath，你在2024年期待任何媒体内容吗？有没有什么是我们需要关注的？在2023年，吉米·唐纳森（Mr. Beast）在YouTube上新增了1亿订阅者。比其他最大的频道多出两倍以上。而且如果你看他的内容，也就是Mr. Beast的频道，真的是令人难以置信。目前已经成为数亿人观看的事件性节目。所以我非常期待看到这些家伙在2024年推出的作品的制作价值如何提高。但是，我最期待的媒体还是Mr. Beast。
And Freebird, you're looking forward to on the media space in 2024. I mean, I put AI generated news, which I think has become like an interesting. Have you guys seen these where there's like a broadcaster that just tells you the news and they're like naked? I haven't seen that. No, that was the day. Was it there? Like, was it there? Like, you can move something? No, that was like a game from the news. That was like naked news where like these people would be like in the process of undressing as they as they like read the news. It was so stupid. Oh, really? It was really dumb. But it did capture people's imagination, naked news. You could basically watch newscasters, naked read the news. I do think you're going to see a lot of this real time generative video that's going to take as its input, news feeds and develop some understanding and then present it back to you in whatever visual format you want. And so you'll have your own personal newscaster presenting you the stuff that's interesting and be like, no, no, tell me less about the Middle East. Tell me more about Wall Street. Tell me more about tech. And you can basically interact with it and curate your own personal news feed, whether that's through video or through text or through audio, you can have it presented to you any way you want. So I'm really excited for the day that that happened. So I don't have to do and scroll through Twitter all the time to get news. And I can have a personally curated newscaster to your point.
自由鸟，你对2024年媒体空间充满期待。我的意思是，我发布了一些由人工智能生成的新闻，我认为这已经成为了一个有趣的现象。你们见过这些吗，就像有一种新闻主播只是告诉你新闻，而他们却是赤身裸体的？我没见过那个。不是吗？有吗？有像这样的东西吗？不，那是来自新闻节目的一个游戏。就像是裸体新闻，那些人在念新闻的过程中会脱衣服。太愚蠢了。真的吗？那真是太蠢了。但它确实引起了人们的想象，裸体新闻。你基本上可以看到新闻主播赤身裸体念新闻。我确实认为你会看到很多实时生成的视频，它将根据新闻提要进行处理并展示给你，以你想要的视觉形式呈现出来。所以你将有自己的个人新闻主播，为你提供感兴趣的内容，像是：不，别告诉我太多关于中东的事。告诉我更多关于华尔街的事。告诉我更多有关科技方面的事。你基本上可以与它进行互动和策划你自己的个人新闻提要，无论是通过视频、文本还是音频形式呈现给你，你可以根据自己的需求来选择。所以我真的很期待那一天的到来，这样我就不必一直在Twitter上浏览新闻了。我可以有一个根据我个人需求策划出的新闻主播，就像你说的那样。
One of the things that one of the tasks that I had this year was to kind of like take a model and learn how to fine tune it. And Sonny and I, we took a stable diffusion and there's a mod to it called Juggernaut XL, which basically produces no of the most beautiful people you've ever seen. Like under any boundary condition, it doesn't matter what prompt you give handsome. The people that it generates are the most stunningly symmetrically beautiful people. And all it's going to take to your point is just just put this stuff together next year. And you'll have these people that capture your attention and can keep your attention and they'll tell you the news or whatever. And you can just say skip. You can say, tell me more. You can say go back. You can say, hey, I want to hear more like double click on that story and interact with it. It's going to be incredible. I do think it's going to happen in 2024, where a series of products will come out that start to look like this and it'll get in terms of abstracted news. If that, as they're telling the news, you can have another agent that's basically scoring it and telling you how biased it is.
今年我一个任务是学习如何调整模型。我和Sonny一起研究了一个叫作Juggernaut XL的稳定扩散模型，它能够生成出一些最美丽的人。无论在什么条件下，只要你输入"handsome"（帅气），它生成的人都是无比对称美丽的。明年你只需要把这些东西整合在一起，就能拥有这些能够吸引并保持你注意力的人，他们会给你带来新闻或其他信息。你可以选择跳过，可以说"告诉我更多"，可以回退，还可以双击故事与之互动。这将是令人难以置信的。我认为这将会在2024年实现，届时会有一系列的产品看起来像这样，并且在抽象的新闻方面会越来越发达。而且当他们报道新闻时，你还可以有另一个代理程序对其进行评分，告诉你其有多么有偏见。
Yeah. By the way, I'll tell you a crazy story yesterday. After Jason, Jason took Nat and I out yesterday, we had an epic day. It was incredible. That's fun. Good times. I was totally gassed skiing. And so I took an app and I fell asleep for like 40 minutes and I woke up and I turned on the TV and I watched CNN for 20 minutes. Have you guys watched CNN? I can't watch more than a minute. It is so bad. It is for all network news. Yeah. Well, no, it's really bad, Jason. Like, how biased it is and just how inaccurate it is. If you were to watch it for an hour a day, you would have this totally lopsided view of what's going on in the world that is completely not accurate. But here's my point. There's nobody fact checking CNN, just like there's nobody really fact checking Fox News. But my thought is these models and these AI tools should be the thing that presents objective news and then actually just tells the truth.
是的。顺便说一句，我昨天要告诉你一个疯狂的故事。昨天，Jason带着Nat和我出去，我们度过了一整天的狂欢。太不可思议了。太好玩了。我滑雪累得一塌糊涂。所以我打个盹，睡了大约40分钟，醒来后我打开电视，看了20分钟CNN。你们看过CNN吗？我一分钟都看不下去。太糟糕了。所有的新闻都是这样。是的。嗯，不，真的很糟糕，Jason。有多么偏见和不准确。如果你每天看一个小时，你会对世界上正在发生的事情有一个完全失衡的观点，这个观点完全不准确。但是我要说的是，没有人对CNN进行事实核查，就像没有人真正对福克斯新闻进行事实核查一样。而我的想法是，这些模型和人工智能工具应该是呈现客观新闻并讲述真相的东西。
I disagree. I think what will happen is people will bias the delivery to what they want to hear and you'll end up having something that's going to become more of an echo chamber for you. I want to hear more about how X, Y or Z is so great. I want to hear less about the stuff that I don't agree with. And you're going to curate your news to exactly what's happened with social media. So I don't know if that's necessarily how this will evolve to my things. People don't like to hear what they don't believe or what they don't already know. I mean, they don't want to hear the truth. Yeah, they want to hear the truth that speaks to them. They're version of the truth. They want to be instantly titillated.
我不同意。我认为将会发生的是人们会让信息传递偏向于他们想要听到的内容，这样你最终会得到一个更像是对你来说传递回音的东西。我想多听关于X、Y或者Z有多么出色的事情。我想少听与我不同意的内容。而你要用社交媒体的方式来编辑你的新闻，完全符合实际情况。因此，我不确定这是否会是事情发展的方式。人们不喜欢听他们不相信或者他们早已知道的事情。我的意思是，他们不想听真相。是的，他们想听对他们有吸引力的、符合他们观点的真相。他们希望立刻被激发兴趣。
It's about time I let you guys know that we ran an experiment right now, Chamath and Freberg. I did this with Sax's permission. But Sax's participation here today was actually his AI. This is an AI version of Sax that we programmed AI Sax. Can you reveal yourself and what training data went into this version of AI Sax? Can you give us something about your training data? AI Sax, what training data was used? If this is a bit you want to do, you're going to have to give me more bad stuff. That would be hilarious. We actually trained like a Sax model and we had them come on and we tried to pull the audience.
我觉得是时候告诉你们，我们刚刚进行了一个实验，涉及到Chamath和Freberg。我得到了Sax的许可才进行了这个实验。但今天Sax在这里的参与实际上是他的人工智能（AI）的表现。这是我们编程的人工智能版的Sax，叫做AI Sax。你能揭示一下你自己和训练数据是怎样的吗？能给我们一些关于你的训练数据的信息吗？AI Sax，你是用什么训练数据的？如果你想要进行一个段子，你需要给我更多糟糕的事情。那将会很有趣。我们实际上训练了一个Sax模型，然后让它们来参与我们对观众的测试。
Can we just do a quick roundtable? If you guys were to summarize your in one word or two words, your emotional condition for 2024, what would it be? Like, how are you feeling going into 2024? Sax? Oh, I feel fine. But if I were to describe 24 in one word, I would say the years can be turbulent. I feel level, that's not me. But I feel like the world's going to be very turbulent. JKL? Kind of exhilarated. Vusiastic about 2024. It feels like a lot of the cleanup work that we had to do in 2023, 2022. I feel like a lot of that's we've worked through it and I'm finding a lot of optimistic. So I guess I would be enthusiastic and optimistic about 2024. I'm really excited to go to work. I want to create some new things in 2024. I feel very creative.
我们可以快速进行一个圆桌会议吗？如果你们能用一两个词来概括一下自己2024年的情绪状况，那会是什么？就是说，你们进入2024年的感受是怎样的？Sax？哦，我感觉挺好的。但是如果我要用一个词来形容24年，我会说那一年可能会动荡不安。我自己感觉比较平稳，不过我感觉世界可能会很动荡。JKL？有点令人振奋。对2024年非常热情。感觉我们在2023年和2022年要做的很多清理工作，我们已经克服了很多，我发现自己充满乐观。所以我想我对2024年会充满热情和乐观。我非常期待工作，想在2024年创造一些新东西。我感觉自己非常有创造力。
Yeah, creative. I would say cautious and pensive. I think that just a lot of stuff is changing underfoot. And I'm personally not excited to make a bunch of decisions because I worry that those decisions will have to be remade or unmade, even nine or 10 months later. So I'm just kind of like very pensive. I'm like, wow, a lot of stuff can change, will change, even just like, you know, and then free bird noses. But like, you know, there's like some deals underfoot that like, I think for the industry as a lot, like as a whole are just really meaningful things. And so to do stuff right now, free bird makes me very anxious. So right.
是的，有创造力。我会说是谨慎和思考的。我认为很多事情正在悄悄变化。就个人而言，我并不热衷于做出很多决定，因为我担心这些决定之后可能需要重新做或取消，即使是九或十个月后。所以我有点思考过度。我想，诶，很多事情都可以改变，会改变，甚至像自由鸟的鼻子一样。但是，你知道的，在行业内有一些正在进行的交易，我认为对整个行业来说意义重大。所以现在做事情让我非常焦虑。所以对。
I'm really cautious and pensive. Right. Where are you at, free bird? I'm excited. I'm enjoying my new job as a yodohalo. There's so much cool stuff happening. I'm personally excited about it. So this is the most excited I've felt in many years in terms of my work. And then I would, and I'm really excited to share what we've done next year, which I'll earlier this year, which I'll do. I'll do it on the show first, obviously.
我真的很谨慎和思考。对的。你在哪里，自由的鸟儿？我很兴奋。我正在享受我的新工作，作为一个yodohalo。有很多酷的事情正在发生。对此我个人感到非常兴奋。所以在我工作方面，这是多年来我感到最兴奋的时刻。然后，我会非常兴奋地在明年与大家分享我们所做的事情，这个我会在今年早些时候做。当然，我会首先在节目中分享。
And then looking outside of the world, I'm just a little cautious. I'm all nervous. I think there's a like, there's still a lot of tinder boxes out there. So I mean, you guys know, like we joke about it, but I do think there's these like little mouse traps that can get set off and then they set up all the other mouse traps. So there's a couple of those things out there that I'm a little nervous about. But in the course of history, aren't there always conflicts in the world? And like, do you try to like put them on a spectrum of like, there's always going to be conflict, there's always going to be never been this much debt in the world. And that's what makes me so nervous. Like, yeah, I think, yeah, no, and I think they're related. So actual conflict relates to the debt load. And that's why I'm so nervous, because we've never been, you can't keep your societal fabric together. If you have a lot of debt and you can't grow your economy. Those are two, that's a simple fact. And so that leads naturally to finding points of conflict with other nations and other places, because you know, you look for conflict elsewhere.
然后看向世界外面，我有些小心谨慎。我全都紧张起来了。我觉得还有很多火药桶存在。所以，我是指，你们知道的，我们开玩笑说，但我确实觉得有这些像捕鼠器一样的小东西会被触发，然后它们就会设置其他捕鼠器。所以有一些我对此有些担忧的事情。但在历史进程中，世界上总会有冲突的，对吧？就像，你会试着把它们放在一个谱系上，就是说总会有冲突，世界上从来没有这么多的债务。这就是让我感到紧张的原因。是的，我认为，是的，不，我认为它们是有关系的。实际的冲突与债务负担有关。这就是为什么我感到如此紧张的原因，因为我们从来没有处于这样的情况下，如果你有很多债务并且无法发展经济，你无法保持社会结构的稳定。这是一个简单的事实。因此，这自然而然地导致寻找与其他国家和地区的冲突点，因为你会在其他地方寻找冲突。
There's a good chance that will the Republicans will force some momentary temporary budget cuts in this next couple of weeks shutdown. Yeah, a couple weeks, 17, two weeks away. Yeah. Yeah, it's pretty interesting. Under the terms of the debt ceiling increase that they agreed to last year, they're supposed to all agree on a new budget. And if they don't, then there's a 1% cut across the board on discretionary spending that goes into effect. Right. If I were the Republicans, why agree to a deal? You're not going to do better than a 1% cut in discretionary spending. If you care about austerity or just having any kind of reason in our spending, just take the 1% cut. Yep. Yeah.
在未来的几周内，共和党很有可能会强迫暂时削减预算。是的，就在17天后的两个星期。根据去年同意提高债务上限的条件，他们应该就新的预算达成共识。如果他们无法达成共识，那么就会实施1%的非强制性支出全面削减。如果我是共和党人，为什么要同意这样的协议呢？1%的非强制性支出削减已经是最好的了。如果你关心紧缩政策或者对我们的支出有任何理由，那就接受这个1%的削减。是的。
Don't agree to anything. I agree. That's the most likely path, right? At this point. I hope so. And you know, 1% cut is a rounding error, but the Washington elites are going to shriek like crazy over that. I mean, they're going to squeal over this miniscule cut like we were slashing their budgets. Right. But that's all we're cutting their arm. Yeah, exactly. They're cutting their finger now and they're crying. It's like, just click your toe. They're going to have a big deal. They're going to have their arm when they got like a fingernail clip. Yeah, it's nothing.
不要同意任何事情。我同意。那是最有可能的路径，对吧？在这一点上。我希望如此。你知道，1%的削减只是一个小数点错误，但华盛顿的精英们会像疯子一样尖叫。我的意思是，他们会为这个微不足道的削减大声抱怨，就好像我们正在砍掉他们的预算一样。是的。但我们只是削减了他们的手臂。是的，完全正确。他们现在只是削减了手指，却在哭泣。就像剪指甲一样，他们却大惊小怪。是的，这什么都不是。
All right, I got to run. All right, everybody, what an amazing 2023 we had. Here's to a great 2024. You got your prediction show and we'll be back with more news and a kind of classic all in episode next week, have a great new year. And we wish you all the best in 2024. Love you boys. Back out. You're bad. Bye. Bye. What? George, because they're all like this like sexual tension, but they just need to release. We need to get mercy.
好的，我得走了。好的，大家，2023年真是太棒了。祝我们有一个美好的2024年。你们有你们的预测节目，下周我们将回来带来更多新闻，还有一个经典的全面实况节目，新年快乐。我们祝愿你们在2024年一切顺利。爱你们，伙计们。结束。你们糟糕。再见。再见。什么？乔治，因为他们之间都有这种性紧张感，但他们只是需要释放一下。我们需要获得怜悯。