4680 Battery Rumors, Cybertruck Range Test, Sales Updates

Hey everybody, Rob Ma here and today we've got a Cybertruck range test to discuss. We've also got rumors on 4680 batteries, sales updates and a few other items as well. The broader market drought to start off the year has continued today. The NASDAQ down another 6.10% on the day, Tesla down about a quarter percent to $237.93. So still red, but an overperformance to the broader market.

大家好，我是罗布·马(Rob Ma)，今天我们要讨论一下Cybertruck的续航测试。我们还有关于4680电池的传言、销售数据更新和其他几个项目的消息。今年年初的整个市场干旱状况今天仍在持续。纳斯达克指数下跌了6.10%，特斯拉下跌了约0.25%，至237.93美元。所以，虽然还是下跌了，但相对于整个市场来说，业绩还是超过预期的。

All right, we'll start off with the Cybertruck. The out of spec channel has gotten a Cybertruck that they've been doing a lot of testing on over the last couple of days. Sounds like there's going to be a lot more testing to come, so I presume we'll talk about this again. But they have now posted a video with a Cybertruck range test from 100% state of charge to 0% and truly 0%. They ran this all the way down and let it die in a parking lot. So not a 0% indicated, like maybe we have seen another range test which could allow for a little bit of a buffer after that. Effectively real zero in this test, although probably a little bit of capacity left for low voltage usages at that point.

好的，我们先从Cybertruck车型开始。Out of spec频道最近几天一直在对Cybertruck进行大量测试。听起来还会有更多的测试，所以我预计我们会再次讨论这个问题。然而，他们现在已经发布了一个Cybertruck的续航测试视频，从100%的电量一直用到0%并确实到了0%。他们将电量全部用完后，车子就在停车场熄火了。所以不是像我们之前看到的续航测试那样只是显示0%，在此之后还可能有一点缓冲电量。在这次测试中，这是真正的零电量，尽管此时可能还有一点低电压用途的存储能力。

The version they were testing was the dual motor all-wheel drive configuration with the all terrain tires. So these are the larger tires, probably a little bit more rolling resistance on these tires, which knocks Tesla's EPA estimated range down from 340 miles to 318 miles with this configuration. The test was done at highway speeds, so 70 miles per hour for the majority of the test, which I think for many people is where the range figure is most important rather than just having extra range to drive around town. Maybe that's important if you don't have charging at home or things like that. But range at highway speeds, I think, is very important. The EPA test cycle tests at low speeds and higher speeds, but really not even quite highway speeds. So just like for other Teslas and for other EVs, we should expect a lower range figure than the EPA estimate in a test like this. That is indeed what ended up happening 100% to 0% was 254 miles on this test.

他们正在测试的版本是配备全地形轮胎的双电机四驱配置。因此，这些是更大的轮胎，可能会有一点点更高的滚动阻力，这将使特斯拉的美国环境保护局（EPA）预计续航里程从340英里降至318英里。测试是以高速公路速度进行的，所以大部分测试速度为每小时70英里，我认为对于很多人来说，续航里程在这种情况下比只是在城市里多续航里程更为重要。也许在你没有家里充电或其他类似情况下，这可能很重要。但是，在高速公路速度下的续航里程，我认为非常重要。美国环境保护局的测试循环测试了低速和高速，但实际上还不到高速公路速度。所以，就像其他特斯拉和其他电动车一样，我们应该预计在这样的测试中，续航里程会比EPA的估计要低。实际上，在这个测试中，从100%使用到0%使用的里程是254英里。

So about 80% of the EPA rated range. Now the other major factor to consider here is that the testing was done at about 45 degrees Fahrenheit. It's about 7 degrees Celsius, and that is cold enough where that's going to have a negative impact on any electric vehicle's range. Considering the temperature and if your expectations are at all based on the reality of EPA estimates, then I think this is actually a pretty good result for the cyber truck. It'd be a lot to ask way too much to ask, but it would have been awesome if they had done a side-by-side test with another Tesla vehicle that has around a 320 mile EPA range estimate. That would give us a great comparison in these exact conditions, but based on my own experiences with my Model 3, this is kind of right around where I'd expect, maybe even a little bit better than I would have expected going into the test. The one other thing to keep in mind here though is that this is a pretty much brand new cyber truck. This is before maybe some degradation for the batteries would happen that 10th sappen earlier on in the life cycle of itself. We don't have as much information about this on the 4680s. So the degradation there could be a little bit different, but if you're strictly looking at the comparison of the actual tested range versus the initial EPA estimated range, that is something that we could expect to have maybe another 5 or 10% impact as the battery moves along its life cycle. Anyway, thanks to Out of spec for sharing this test. I think it's a great test, and we'll keep an eye out for other range and efficiency tests as of course this is going to vary a lot by circumstance.

所以，大约80%的EPA（美国环境保护署）标定里程。现在，这里还需要考虑的另一个主要因素是，测试是在华氏45度左右进行的。大约是摄氏7度，这个温度已经足够低，会对任何电动汽车的续航里程产生负面影响。考虑到温度以及你的期望是否与EPA估计的实际情况相符，我认为这对于Cybertruck来说实际上是一个相当不错的结果。虽然要求他们与其他EPA估计为320英里续航里程的特斯拉车型进行并列测试可能有些苛求，但如果他们这样做了，那将为我们提供一个在完全相同的条件下进行比较的绝佳机会。但根据我个人使用Model 3的经验，这个测试结果大致符合我的预期，甚至可能比我预期的还要好一些。然而，还要记住的另一点是，这是一辆几乎全新的Cybertruck，它在使用寿命的前期可能还没有发生电池容量进一步降低的情况。关于4680电池方面我们没有太多的信息。所以，电池在使用寿命过程中的衰减可能会有所不同，但如果你严格比较实际测试的续航里程与初始EPA估计的里程，我们可以预计在电池使用寿命过程中还可能会有额外的5%到10%的影响。无论如何，感谢Out of spec分享这项测试。我认为这是一个很好的测试，我们将继续关注其他续航里程和效率测试，因为这当然会因情况而异。

Alright, next up we've got a 4680 battery rumor. This is coming from Joe Tagmire, of course does a lot of drone flyovers at Kiga Texas, has some connections there over the years I think, and it sounds like through those he's hearing a little bit about Tesla's targets this year on 4680s. So two parts to this rumor, Joe first says that Tesla is working on changing the battery chemistry a bit, which I don't think is too surprising Tesla is alluded to that in the past a number of different times. Joe says Tesla's working on going from an NMC 811, which would be nickel manganese cobalt in an eight to one to one ratio, to a little bit more nickel heavy composition with an NMC 955 or 90% nickel 5% manganese 5% cobalt. From the rumor, it sounds like this would be expected to improve the energy density of 4680s.

好的，接下来我们有一个关于4680电池的谣言。这是来自乔·泰格迈尔的消息，他一直在Kiga Texas进行无人机飞越，多年来在那里有一些联系，听说他通过这些联系得知了特斯拉今年关于4680电池的一些目标。这个谣言有两部分，乔首先说特斯拉正在努力稍微改变电池的化学成分，我觉得这并不太令人惊讶，特斯拉过去多次提到过这一点。乔说特斯拉正在从NMC 811（镍锰钴，比例为8比1比1）转向一个更加富含镍的组成，在NMC 955或90%镍5%锰5%钴的配比下。根据这个谣言，听起来这将提高4680电池的能量密度。

And then Joe also says that they are trialing asymmetric lamination within the dry battery electrode process, which as the name implies would be a thicker coating of the cathode or anode active materials on one side of the copper or aluminum foil than on the other side. So it sounds like a pretty interesting and novel technique. I always like to look at Jordan's opinion from the limiting factor for battery related items like this. And he said this is something a technique that he has never heard of before, which is I think really saying something. Now again, this is just a rumor. Both of these items are just rumors. But Joe is saying that with both of these changes, Tesla will be able to increase the capacity of the 4680 battery initially used in 2023 by a further range between 10 and 20%. Now this does say it would increase capacity by 10 to 20% not necessarily energy density. I would assume that energy density would play a role in increased capacity on the same line. But there is a chance that this could refer solely to production capacity rather than just energy capacity of an individual cell. If this were talking specifically about energy density, this would obviously be a massive improvement. I don't think Tesla will talk about these things in such specific detail. But hopefully on the Q4 earnings call, we hear a lot more about the progress for 4680s in general.

然后Joe还表示，他们正在试验干式电池电极过程中的非对称层压技术，顾名思义，即在铜箔或铝箔的一侧上涂覆更厚的正极或负极活性物质，而另一侧上涂覆较薄。所以这听起来是一种相当有趣和新颖的技术。我总是喜欢从像这样的电池相关物品的限制因素中看到Jordan的意见。他说这是一种他以前从未听说过的技术，我认为这是非常值得一提的。现在再说一遍，这只是一个谣言。这两个消息都只是谣言。但是Joe说，通过这两项变化，特斯拉将能够在2023年初使用的4680电池容量上进一步增加10%到20%的距离。现在这确实表明它将提高容量10%到20%，而不一定是能量密度。我认为能量密度在增加容量方面可能起到一定作用。但是这可能只是指单个电池的生产容量而非能量容量。如果这是特指能量密度的话，那显然会是一个巨大的改进。我不认为特斯拉会如此详细地谈论这些事情。但愿在第四季度财报电话会议中，我们能听到更多关于4680电池的进展。

Alright, next up, we've got a quick report from Reuters. There was a headline today that Tesla had been urged by senators to remain neutral on union organization efforts. This was a letter from 33 senators that went to Tesla and 12 other automakers. I don't think this is something that is too material, but some headlines around it. And of course, Tesla gets a prominent mention in anything like that. But obviously Tesla subjected to an acting under the same legal framework as all other automakers are. So this is probably more political showmanship than anything else.

好的，接下来我们有一份来自路透社的简要报告。今天的头条是特斯拉被参议员敦促在工会组织努力方面保持中立。这是33位参议员致信给特斯拉和其他12家汽车制造商的一封信。我不认为这件事有太大的实质性影响，但其中有一些新闻标题。当然，在任何与此类相关的事情中，特斯拉都会得到突出的提及。但很明显，特斯拉受到与其他所有汽车制造商相同的法律框架的约束。因此，这可能更多是政治上的虚张声势，而不是其他什么。

Next, we've got a couple of quick highland model three related updates. The first is another drone flyover video from Matt God in the wilderness of the Fremont facilities. And in the flyover, they did spot more highland model threes at the factory. So we talked about some reports of these being seen at the factory. We've now got some further confirmation of that another sighting of a few of these highland vehicles on the Fremont factory premises. And then there's apparently been a report going around some Chinese media with a photo of a Highland model three that is being purported to be an updated model Y. There's a little auto Y badge on the back suggesting a highland ask update for the model Y, which we do expect at some point. But this particular image, despite the badge does appear to just be a model three. It kind of reminds me of the model Y unveiling days when Tesla Q people out there were saying that model Y was just a model three, and there was no actual model Y, which was pretty funny having actually been at the model Y event, but a little bit of an opposite scenario in this case. So if you did happen to see that, it does again, just look like this is a model three.

接下来，我们有几个与高原3号车型相关的快速更新。首先是来自弗里蒙特工厂荒野地区的马特·戈德拍摄的另一个无人机俯瞰视频。在这个俯瞰视频中，他们在工厂里看到了更多的高原3号车辆。所以我们之前谈到过有关这些车辆在工厂内被发现的报道。现在我们得到了进一步的证实，又有几辆这些高原车辆在弗里蒙特工厂的场地内被看到。此外，中国的一家媒体传出了一个报道，配有一张被宣称为升级版Y型车的高原3号车的照片。在后部有一个小Y字标志，暗示高原车对Y型车进行了更新，而这是我们在某个时候都预料到的。但是，尽管有这个标志，这个特定的图片看起来只是一辆3号车。这让我想起了Y型车发布会的日子，那时有些特斯拉Q派的人们声称Y型车只是3号车，根本就没有真正的Y型车，这实在是非常有趣，因为我实际上参加了Y型车的发布会，但这次情况正好相反。所以如果你确实看到了那个报道，再次确认一下，看起来只是一辆3号车而已。

Next, we've got a couple of country updates first in China. We was got a new video of the Shanghai port looks like there are a number of Tesla vehicles here ready for departure for export. So when we think of Tesla's inventory number, sure, there are some of those waiting to be sold sitting around. But there are also vehicles like this that are on a boat at a port, etc. Hopefully a good sign though of continued strength from Giga Shanghai as we kick off the new year.

接下来，首先是关于中国的一些国家动态更新。我们得到了一段关于上海港口的视频，看起来有一些特斯拉汽车准备出口。所以当我们考虑特斯拉的库存数量时，当然有一些等待销售的车辆放在那里。但也有像这样的车辆在港口上的船上等待出发等情况。希望这是个好兆头，表示超级上海工厂在新年开始时仍然保持强劲。

Wrapping up the year, we've got some good data coming in for other countries. Obviously, we keep a pretty close eye on China, not as much in the other countries as those can fluctuate a lot more based off of allocation and export decisions, especially looking month to month. But numbers over longer periods can be a little bit more telling. And we've got some good insights put together here by Tavi on X, who I know has been a listener for a long time. He's put together some good data on Germany, which is of course of a little bit extra importance given Tesla's factory in the country. So quite a few interesting charts here. We'll focus on one that looks at Tesla's market share, which is something that I don't tend to look at a whole lot. But in this case, it's looking at trailing 12 month market share on a rolling basis.

总结这一年，我们已经获得了一些其他国家的好数据。显然，我们对中国的关注较为紧密，对其他国家的关注程度不及，因为这些国家的市场份额容易因分配和出口决策而大幅波动，尤其是月度数据。但是，较长时期的数字可能更能说明问题。我们在这里有一些由我长期倾听者Tavi所整理的关于德国的好洞察力，这点特别重要，因为德国有特斯拉的工厂。这里有一些有趣的图表。我们将关注一个图表，它展示了特斯拉的市场份额，虽然我通常不怎么关注这个数据，但在这种情况下，它展示了滚动计算的过去12个月的市场份额。

And this is for Tesla, both on the basis of new car sales in total and battery electric vehicle sales as a subset. So historically, there has been a little bit of volatility here. So I don't think it's something to necessarily overreact to, but historically, Tesla's been growing their share in at least one of these categories. And over the last year, so it looks like Tesla's share has started to slip in both, where if it were just a percent of total vehicle sales, we could say, okay, there's always some tax credit stuff that is changing EVs in general. If it's just battery electric vehicle market share, not really a big deal, as we've talked about that can fall naturally just from other automakers growing off of the lower base. But both happening at the same time, especially a little bit after Tesla's opened factory in the country doesn't seem to be the most positive sign.

这涉及到特斯拉，无论是总体新车销量还是电池电动车销售中的一个。所以从历史上来看，这里存在一些波动性。所以我认为不必过于反应，但从历史上来看，特斯拉在这些类别中至少在一个上面增长了份额。在过去的一年里，看起来特斯拉的份额在这两个领域中开始下滑，如果仅仅是作为总体车辆销售的百分比，我们可以说，好吧，总有一些税收优惠等因素在改变整体的电动车市场。如果只是电池电动车市场份额下降，并没有什么大不了的，因为我们已经谈论过，其他汽车制造商从较低的基数上扩大自己的份额可能导致这种情况。但是，这两者同时发生，尤其是在特斯拉在该国开设工厂之后的小幅下滑似乎并不是最积极的迹象。

We would hope that maybe this would be driven by Tesla just deciding to export to other countries. And that very well, maybe the case, it would seem like maybe prioritized locally with the factory there. But again, a lot of that's going to depend on incentives where Tesla can get the highest average selling price and best margins overall. That's going to drive a lot of those decisions. But it is still something that is worth keeping an eye on. Obviously, the next generation vehicle is going to be the most important thing for this in future years, but in the interim period, still a trend that I think is worth monitoring.

我们希望特斯拉能够决定将产品出口到其他国家，这样也许会推动这种情况的发生。有很大可能，该公司会优先考虑本地工厂，并在那里生产。但很明显，这将在很大程度上取决于特斯拉能否获得最高平均售价和最佳利润率的激励措施。这将推动很多决策的做出。然而，这仍然是一个值得关注的问题。显然，未来几年新一代汽车将是最重要的，但在中间时期，这仍然是一个值得我们密切关注的趋势。

On the more positive side, and perhaps an example of how some of these things can be affected by allocation decisions, we do have total year sales for Denmark, as we've talked about before, model wide best-selling vehicle and history. But Tesla also the number one brand for automotive car sales in Denmark for 2023, with almost 13% market share. And market share lead that happened really quickly, that's up from just 2% in 2022. So always nice to see that strength in Denmark.

在更积极的一面看，也许这是一种说明这些事情如何受到分配决策影响的例子，我们确实有丹麦的年度销售总额，正如我们之前所讨论过的，丹麦拥有车型销量最佳的车辆以及历史上最畅销的车型。但是特斯拉也是丹麦2023年汽车销售中的第一品牌，市场份额接近13%。这个市场份额的领先地位发展非常迅速，从2022年的仅2%上升而来。所以，在丹麦能够看到这种实力总是令人欣慰的。

Alright, last few items here. Last night, Elon Musk was on a space with Peter Diamondis, who helps organize XPRIZE, which Elon has been involved with a couple of times most recently for carbon capture methods. Not a whole lot on the discussion that related specifically to Tesla, but Elon did mention that for Tesla battery production is growing at several times the rate of vehicle production. In some cases, almost 10x, he said. Now keep in mind, we have had a little bit of a slowdown in growth in vehicle production and Tesla with battery production is going from a very small base at this moment. So not the most meaningful comment, but he did sound pretty positive in terms of tone when he was discussing it. So I think that's nice to see.

好的，最后几项了。昨晚，埃隆·马斯克与彼得·戴蒙迪斯一起出现在太空上，戴蒙迪斯是帮助组织XPRIZE的人，埃隆在这方面已经参与过几次，最近是在碳捕集方法上。关于特斯拉的讨论并不多，但埃隆提到特斯拉的电池生产增长速度是车辆生产的几倍。他说，在某些情况下，几乎是10倍。要记住的是，我们的车辆生产增长速度有所放缓，而特斯拉的电池生产目前还起步较小。所以这个评论并不是最具意义的，但他在讨论时听起来非常积极。我觉得这很好。

We've also got a couple other automaker updates this happened a few days ago, but Rivian had reported their Q4 numbers. Interestingly, production was up decent amount quarter over quarter to about 17,000 vehicles, but deliveries as we can see from the chart from inside EV were actually down quarter over quarter despite the increase in production. Now there can be a lot of reasons for that, something to keep an eye on though, as we have started to see inventory also show up for Rivian at this point.

我们在几天前还有其他汽车制造商的最新消息。但值得注意的是，Rivian公司已经公布了他们第四季度的数字。有趣的是，与上一季度相比，他们的生产量增加了相当大的数量，大约达到了17,000辆车，但正如我们从inside EV的图表中可以看到的那样，交付量实际上是下降的。 现在，可能有很多原因导致这种情况，需要格外注意，因为我们已经开始看到Rivian的库存也出现了。

And then Ford has also published their US sales figures for the 4th quarter, so we can take an updated look at our charts for their electric vehicles. First the F-150 Lightning, actually a decent month in December, a little bit down month over month from their high in November. But overall, a very strong quarter for the F-150 Lightning relative to prior quarters after they did have that production shutdown and production rate upgrade.

然后福特还发布了他们第四季度的美国销售数据，所以我们可以更新我们的图表来看他们的电动车情况。首先是F-150 Lightning，在12月份实际上是一个不错的月份，相比11月份的高点略有下跌。但总体而言，相对于之前的季度，F-150 Lightning在生产中断和生产率升级后表现非常强劲。

For the Mustang Mach-E, not quite as positive, of course, it was also dealing with the expiration of the tax credit, so maybe a little bit of an additional incentive to take delivery in the fourth quarter. But for December sales were just a little bit better than November, still below a couple months in the third quarter. And from a total quarter perspective, Q4 was down sequentially for the Mustang Mach-E from the third quarter. So I think some pretty tough indications here for the Mustang Mach-E, especially as they now have to compete with the Model Y retaining the tax credit, Mustang Mach-E, no longer having the tax credit, as we said here in 2024.

对于野马Mach-E来说，情况并不太积极，当然，它也面临着所得税减免的到期问题，所以可能有一点额外的激励来在第四季度交付。但12月份的销售情况比11月稍微好一点，但仍低于第三季度的几个月。从整个季度的角度来看，与第三季度相比，Mach-E的销量连续下滑。因此，我认为Mach-E面临着相当严峻的局面，尤其是现在他们必须与Model Y竞争，后者仍然保留了所得税减免，而Mach-E则在2024年不再享受所得税减免。

Alright, and then last item for today, an interesting development for Mobile Y, of course, used to provide autopilot hardware for Tesla and a big industry provider of driver assistance technology. Their stock was down 25% today, as they updated guidance saying that they have discovered that their customers are sitting on a lot of inventory from them, which seems a little bit odd. You would think there'd be better visibility into something like this, both from a forecasting and just current inventory perspective. I don't know if it's just bad forecasting and inventory management, or if it's something relating to optionality on certain vehicles, not being high enough uptake rate. I'm not really sure, but whatever the situation is, a big hit to mobile today.

好的，接下来是今天的最后一个项目，关于Mobile Y的一个有趣动态，当然了，它过去供应特斯拉的自动驾驶硬件，同时也是一家提供驾驶辅助技术的大型行业供应商。他们的股价今天下跌了25%，因为他们更新了指导，表示他们发现他们的客户手中拥有大量他们的存货，这看起来有点奇怪。你可能会认为在像这种情况下，无论是从预测还是当前库存的角度来看，都应该有更好的可见性。我不知道是不是只是糟糕的预测和库存管理，还是与某些车辆的可选性不够高有关。我不太确定，但无论情况如何，这对Mobile来说是一个重大打击。

But that will wrap it up for today. So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on X-at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday, January 5th episode of Tesla daily. Thank you.

但是今天的节目就到此为止了。所以一如既往，谢谢你们的收听。确保你们已经订阅并开启了通知功能。你还可以在X-at Tesla播客上找到我。明天我们将在1月5日星期五的特斯拉日报中见面。谢谢。