Tesla Market Share Skyrocketing / Tesla Announcement Coming / Tesla Engineer on Optimus ⚡️
发布时间 2024-01-03 08:03:55 来源
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Welcome back to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my new patrons, Alva H and Duncan M. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. To everyone hoping for a personal update on what happened to me last week, stick around for the end of this video.
欢迎回到《电动世界》，我是主持人迪伦·卢米斯。特别感谢我的新赞助人阿尔瓦·H和邓肯·M，谢谢你们选择支持本频道。对于那些希望了解我上周发生了什么的人，请继续观看本视频，我将在视频末尾分享个人更新。
To everybody else, happiest of new years, hope this video finds you in good spirits and doing well. Thank you all for your patience.
给所有的朋友，祝你们新年快乐，希望这个视频能够让你们心情愉快、身体健康。感谢大家的耐心等待。
First up today, if you haven't seen it yet, Tesla reported their fourth quarter deliveries. The number came in 484.5 thousand, beating Wall Street expectations, which sat at about 480.4 thousand.
今天首先，如果你还没看到的话，特斯拉发布了他们第四季度的交付报告。交付数量为48.45万辆，超过了华尔街的预期，预期为大约48.04万辆。
Given that the Cybertruck is now in this other models category, for the year, best case scenario, they did what a few hundred deliveries. So most of these were indeed Model S and X, and this was a very good result. The best in the last few years, four quarter, four Model S and X deliveries, which of course should be good for margins.
鉴于Cybertruck现在被归类为其他型号，今年的情况最理想的情况是他们完成了几百辆交付。因此，大部分交付的确是Model S和X，这是非常好的成绩。在过去几年的最佳四个季度，Model S和X的交付数量最多，并且这当然对利润率有好处。
I think most of us know this, but just to mention it anyway, if you look at the difference between production and deliveries for the quarter, you're going to see people spewing that Tesla yet again has an inventory problem, talking about their overall inventory level now being over a hundred thousand. Let's keep in mind the only data point that really matters here is days of supply. That figure is still going to sit right between 16 and 17 exactly where it was when the industry average for the same metric is around 50 or higher.
我认为我们大多数人都知道这一点，但还是提一下，如果你看一下这个季度的产量和交付数量的差异，你会看到人们正在疯狂谈论特斯拉再次面临库存问题，提到他们的总库存现在已经超过了十万。让我们记住这里唯一重要的数据点是供应天数。这个数字仍然会保持在16到17之间，而同行业同样指标的平均水平大致在50或更高。
So no, Tesla's inventory is still not even close to being a problem, and I would argue as Tesla grows them having more inventory, aka more cars at Tesla locations, to a point that's a good thing because it'll give those customers an option to buy the vehicle they want on the spot rather than having to wait for delivery.
所以，不，特斯拉的库存目前仍远远没有成为问题的地步，我认为随着特斯拉的增长，他们拥有更多的库存，也就是更多的汽车放置在特斯拉的地点，到某个程度时这是件好事，因为它将给顾客提供一个立即购买他们想要的车辆的选择，而不必等待交付。
And yes, with the Q4 numbers, Tesla hit their 1.8 million goal for the year delivering 1,808,581 vehicles. This also means these are all new records for Tesla, both when it comes to production and deliveries from a quarterly and an annual perspective.
是的，凭借第四季度的数据，特斯拉实现了他们全年180万辆的目标，交付了1808581辆车辆。这也意味着这些不仅是特斯拉的新纪录，无论是从季度还是年度的角度来看，无论是生产还是交付。
As is the case with most quarters, Tesla's VP of supply chain said on X, thanks to our supplier partners for working through some challenges over the course of last quarter. One of those challenges we had a ship from Shanghai headed to Australia with presumably a few thousand Tesla vehicles for delivery had to turn around because stink bugs were found on board. For what it's worth, this ship has a capacity of 6,500 vehicles, not sure how fully loaded it was, how many of those were Tesla but something to note.
正如大多数季度一样，特斯拉供应链副总裁在X上表示，由于供应商合作伙伴在上个季度期间解决了一些挑战，我们对他们表示感谢。其中一个挑战是，我们从上海运往澳大利亚的一艘船上发现了臭虫，这可能意味着其中有数千辆特斯拉车要交付，但不确定船上是否装载满载，以及有多少辆是特斯拉的，这是需要注意的事项。
As Elon has said in the past, many investors put far too much emphasis on quarterly results, so let's heed his and my advice in zoom out to the bigger picture. I put this on X earlier today, the white line is Tesla's actual 50% growth target, they set this back in 2020. And in the green, we have Tesla's actual deliveries, so we now have three years of Tesla achieving their 50% growth target.
正如埃隆过去所说的，许多投资者过于强调季度业绩，因此让我们遵循他和我的建议，从更大的画面来看。我今天早些时候在X上发布了这个信息，白线代表特斯拉实际的50%增长目标，他们在2020年设定了这个目标。而在绿线上，我们有特斯拉实际的交付量，所以现在我们已经连续三年实现了特斯拉的50%增长目标。
I just want to put it out there throughout this year, there's going to be plenty of noise around Tesla not hitting that pace for 2024, as the target implied would be 2.529 million deliveries. However, what Tesla actually said was over a multi year horizon, we expect to have 50% average annual growth, not that every single year they're going to grow at 50%.
我想在今年将其表达出来，特斯拉在2024年不会达到2.529百万辆交付的目标时，会产生很多噪音。然而，特斯拉实际上说的是在未来几年内，我们预计平均每年增长50%，并不是说每年都会增长50%。
Plain and simple, in my opinion, it matters far more what happens between 2025 and 2028, as Cybertruck and the next gen vehicles ramp, not so much what happens next year. We'll see what if any new guidance Tesla gives when they release their full financial results for the quarter, which will be Wednesday, January 24th.
我认为最重要的是2025年至2028年之间发生的事情，因为那时候Cybertruck和下一代车辆将会大量投产，而不是明年发生的事情。我们将在2021年1月24日（星期三）特斯拉发布该季度完整财务业绩时，看看他们是否提供任何新的指引。
In 2021, Tesla's growth rate was 87% in 2022, it was 40% and for 2023, it came in at 37%. When it comes to Tesla stock, I think it's very important to note that for 2024 expectations from Tesla's internal compiled consensus, the median expectation for 2024 for deliveries is actually 2.15 million, so the good news is that most of Wall Street is not at all expecting Tesla to hit this 2.5 million delivery number.
2021年，特斯拉的增长率为87%，2022年为40%，2023年为37%。谈到特斯拉股票，我认为非常重要的是要注意到，根据特斯拉内部编制的2024年预期数据，交付量的中位数预期实际上为215万辆。所以好消息是，大多数华尔街并不期待特斯拉达到250万辆的交付数量。
Tesla's VP of public policy, Rohan Patel added on X, the Model Y was the best selling vehicle of any type in the world for the year and in Europe. Plus, Tesla energy storage deployments have quadrupled since 2021. One more reminder, Tesla's energy division now has higher gross margins than the auto business. Energy came in at 24.4% for Q3, while auto gross margins sat at 18.7% and Tesla energy is now growing faster as well.
特斯拉公共政策副总裁罗汉·帕特尔在X上补充说，Model Y是全球及欧洲年销量最高的交通工具。此外，特斯拉能源储存的部署量自2021年以来增加了四倍。值得一提的是，特斯拉的能源部门现在比汽车业务的毛利率更高。2021年第三季度，能源部门的毛利率为24.4%，而汽车的毛利率为18.7%。特斯拉能源的增长速度也更快。
Let's talk about the Cybertruck for a second. In a recent Kim Java video, T-Sportline did confirm that wrapping the Cybertruck is indeed easier than other Tesla models as many of us expected. They're also now working on a DIY wrapping kit so that we'll be coming with pre-cut materials and tutorial videos as well.
让我们简单谈谈Cybertruck。在最近的Kim Java视频中，T-Sportline证实了我们许多人所期望的，用覆膜包裹Cybertruck确实比其他特斯拉车型更容易。他们现在还正在制作一个DIY覆膜套件，包含预先切割好的材料和教程视频。
The YouTube channel Our Cyber Life, who took delivery of one of the first foundation series Cybertrucks, just posted a video about their road trip in the Cybertruck and they shared a few different anecdotes of groups of people that have come up to them and asked them questions about the truck.
YouTube频道《我们的网络生活》收到了第一批基础系列Cybertruck之一的交付，他们刚刚发布了一段关于他们在Cybertruck上的公路旅行的视频，并分享了一些不同的小故事，描述了一些人群向他们提问关于卡车的问题。
It's one thing to have people in the Tesla community for months if not years shouting about how when the Cybertruck hit the streets, it was going to get so much attention, but it's an entirely different thing to actually have it happening in the real world with proof.
在特斯拉社区里，有人在几个月甚至几年的时间里大声宣传，说当Cybertruck上路时，它会吸引很多注意力，这只是一个说法。但在现实世界中，事实却完全不同，我们有着真凭实据。
I do have a warning though, if you plan to buy a Cybertruck and you don't like people, you may be in for some serious trouble.
我确实有一个警告，如果你打算购买一辆Cybertruck而且不喜欢与人接触，那么你可能会遇到一些严重的麻烦。
In case you missed this one, this was the first gloss black Cybertruck. This of course was done by T-Sportline, so what do you think? Perhaps more importantly, if you were posed the question, do you want a matte black or gloss black Cybertruck? Which one are you picking? I'll put my answer below.
如果你错过了这辆车，它是第一辆采用哑光黑色外观的Cybertruck。当然，这是由T-Sportline完成的，那么你觉得如何？更重要的是，如果你被问到，你想要哑光黑色还是亮光黑色的Cybertruck？你会选择哪一个？我会在下面给出我的答案。
We got this short YouTube video from Antonio Torres showing the Cybertruck on its third attempt and the second one that was successful. Yes, it's using momentum, we're not going to try to break this down though, it was just something that I really enjoyed watching, some decent off-road action.
我们从Antonio Torres那里得到了这段短视频，展示了Cybertruck的第三次尝试，以及第二次成功尝试。是的，它利用了动量，尽管我们不打算对此进行详细分析，但我非常享受观看它，因为它展示了一些不错的越野动作。
Have a look at this Easter egg shared by YouTube channel Dennis CW Tesla Hacking. That's epic.
来看看Dennis CW Tesla Hacking分享的这个复活节彩蛋。真是太棒了。
Chuck Cook asked Elon about the timeline for FSD making it to the Cybertruck to which Elon said, Cybertruck is necessarily the lowest priority for FSD as there are only a few hundred Cybertrucks in the field compared to around 5 million other Teslas.
查克·库克问埃隆有关FSD（全自动驾驶）在Cybertruck上的时间表，埃隆回答说，由于在实地使用的Cybertruck仅有几百辆，相比其他特斯拉车型的约500万辆，因此对于FSD来说，Cybertruck自然是优先级最低的。
Honestly though, when you really think about it, things like different camera placements, different vehicle size, different driving dynamics, not having any in-the-field data yet for the Cybertruck, it makes sense that FSD would not launch with the Cybertruck. At least for now, no timeline has been given.
老实说，当你真正思考这个问题时，不同的摄像机安放位置、不同的车辆尺寸、不同的驾驶动态，以及Cybertruck还没有任何实地数据，这些都可以解释为什么全自动驾驶（FSD）不会与Cybertruck一同推出。至少目前还没有确定的时间表。
We got an anecdote from Paul Mang Yamelli, sorry if I butchered that one of the first Cybertruck owners. In summary, he talked about insane reactions from people and he said, I think I'd get less attention in a Bugatti. He said the ride is smooth, he enjoys steer by wire, the space of the Cybertruck was practical and well thought out and the sound system is extraordinary.
我们从保罗·曼格·亚梅利那里得到了一个轶事，如果我把名字弄错了，请原谅，他是第一批Cybertruck的车主之一。简而言之，他谈到了人们对Cybertruck的疯狂反应，他说：“我觉得开着一辆布加迪会吸引的注意力更少。”他说这辆车的乘坐感很平稳，他喜欢它的电子转向功能，Cybertruck的空间布局实用而周到，音响系统非常出色。
On X, the Rosenberg Police Department, which is in Texas, they reached out to Elon basically asking if they should switch to the Cybertruck for their police fleet, adding it's still hard to find new vehicles to replenish our older units. Naturally, Elon replied saying, 100. In the past, we talked about how Larry Ellison has plans to use a Cybertruck and modded out to become a police vehicle. I'm also now hearing rumors, so be very careful with this, that the screen in the Cybertruck will be able to replace some of the actual police equipment. I don't know what exactly it could replace and I would assume that means actually integrating with some of these department's actual back end and I'm not sure how that would work, but something to keep an eye on.
在X日期，位于德克萨斯州的罗森伯格警察局主动联系了埃隆，询问他们是否应该将警车车队改为使用Cybertruck，补充说现在很难找到新车来替代旧车。自然而然，埃隆回应说“100”。过去，我们曾谈论过拉里·埃里森计划使用一辆改装后的Cybertruck作为警车。而我现在听到的传言是，Cybertruck的屏幕能够替代部分实际的警用设备。我不知道它能替代什么，我会认为这意味着它实际上会与某些警察局的后端进行整合，我不确定这会如何运作，但这是一个需要密切关注的事项。
On X, the boring company shared some photos of the Cybertruck in the Vegas Loop and I would point out starting January 9th, CES for this year will be held at the Las Vegas Convention Center. Now I have no idea if they'll be offering rides in the Cybertruck for that event, but if you're going to be in the area, something I thought you might want to know. It won't happen, but it would be even better if they could offer Cybertruck drives because that's when it's going to click for many people, the magic of Steer by Wire. I say that because we got another anecdote from Paul and he was saying after a few hundred miles driving, he can't stop, the Steer by Wire system makes you realize how silly mechanical steering is and he said Tesla has integrated this tech and feature flawlessly, not to be overly dramatic, but it's magical.
在X日，无聊公司在Vegas Loop分享了一些Cybertruck的照片。我想指出的是，从1月9日开始，今年的CES将在拉斯维加斯会议中心举行。现在我不知道他们是否会在那个活动中提供Cybertruck的乘车服务，但如果你会在该区域，这是我认为你可能想知道的事情。尽管这不太可能会发生，但如果他们能够提供Cybertruck的驾驶体验，那将会更好，因为这将会让许多人体验到Steer by Wire的魔力。我这么说是因为我们从Paul那里得到了另一个个人经历，他说在驾驶几百英里后，他无法停下来，Steer by Wire系统让你意识到传统的机械转向是多么愚蠢，他还说特斯拉无缝地整合了这项技术和功能，不想过分夸张，但是这真的太神奇了。
We got some new official guidance from the treasury on which vehicles will qualify for the IRA tax credits. As it stands right now, the Model 3 rear wheel drive and long range do not qualify for anything while the Model 3 performance qualifies for the full credit. What that means is that right now you can get a Model 3 performance after the credit for $43.5,000 which is less than the Model 3 long range. How long will it stay that way? I would guess not that long.
我们收到了财政部的一些新的官方指导文件，说明哪些车辆可以获得个人退休账户税收抵免。目前的情况是，Model 3后驱和长续航版本都没有资格获得任何抵免，而Performance版本可以获得全部抵免。这意味着目前你可以在抵免后以43.5万美元购买Model 3 Performance，这比长续航版更便宜。这种情况会持续多久呢？我猜应该不会太久。
Here we have the updated full list for vehicles placed in service on or after January 1st of this year. As you can see, sadly we have vehicles like the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV getting a full credit with about 32 miles of EV range. As it stands now, Ford has three vehicles that qualify two of which are F-150 Lightning, the Mach-E nowhere to be found. Rivian has five vehicles qualifying all of which are for half of the credit two of which R1s three of which are one T and Tesla has five vehicles qualifying all of which are for the full credit Model 3 performance, Model X long range and all variants of the Model Y.
这里是今年1月1日之后投入使用的车辆更新完整名单。正如您所看到的，令人遗憾的是，像克莱斯勒太平洋大捷充电混合动力车这样的车辆获得了完全的优惠，电动行驶里程约为32英里。目前为止，福特有三款符合资格的车型，其中两款是F-150闪电版，而马自达只有不符合资格的阿特兹。Rivian有五款符合资格的车型，其中两款是R1S，三款是R1T。特斯拉有五款符合资格的车型，其中包括完全优惠的Model 3性能版、长里程版Model X以及所有款式的Model Y。
Two things I would add one the Cybertruck all-wheel drive variant should end up on this list at some point this year. Maybe it'll be when that model is actually available. Tesla has put exactly that on the Cybertruck page. Sawyer did say that he called the IRS to confirm this where he said you get the full $7,500 POS rebate regardless of your tax liability, meaning even if you don't owe that much in taxes, you still get the full deduction when you buy the vehicle. What I'm about to say is not at all a reflection on Sawyer, but it was just one call, it was just one agent, my advice here, double check with your CPA to make sure.
有两件事我会在Cybertruck上增加的，其中之一是全驱版本，应该在今年某个时候加入到车款中。也许是在该车型真正上市的时候。特斯拉在Cybertruck页面上明确写明了这一点。 Sawyer说他打电话给国税局确认了这一点，他说无论您的税务责任多少，您都可以获得全额7500美元的购车退税，这意味着即使您的税务负担并不高，购车时您仍然可以获得全额减税。我要说的不是Sawyer本人的问题，但只是一个电话，只有一个代理人，我的建议是，还是与您的注册会计师再次核实一下。
He also reached out to the Department of Treasury to get an update on how many dealers have opted into this point of sale rebate, the latest as of December 29th, 7,400 dealers have registered of around 17,000 in the United States. I just wanted to clarify that does not mean this is the final number, it just means that so far a lot of dealers have not gotten around to actually registering.
他还联系财政部，以了解有多少经销商选择加入销售点退税计划的最新情况。截至12月29日，共有约17,000家经销商中有7,400家已注册。我想澄清的是，这并不意味着这是最终数字，只是目前为止很多经销商尚未真正注册。
Milan Kovac, who is an engineer on Optimus at Tesla, gave us a pretty awesome update on what Tesla has accomplished with Optimus this year. I want to read a few parts of this and I'll throw up something enjoyable to watch. We've improved our locomotion stack, frequently walking off Gantry without falls and with a faster, increasingly more human-like walking gate.
特斯拉优化师米兰·科瓦茨给我们带来了关于特斯拉今年在Optimus方面所取得的非凡成就的令人惊叹的更新。我想读一些其中的部分，然后我会找些有趣的视频给大家观看。我们改进了我们的移动控制系统，在不断行走的同时，避免了摔倒，并且拥有越来越快速、越来越接近人类的行走方式。
We've built a very low latency and high fidelity tele-operation system used to collect AI training data of the bot, imitating humans performing certain tasks. We've designed, trained, and deployed some of the first end-to-end neural nets for humanoid robots ever demonstrated to autonomously perform tasks, requiring coordinated control of humanoid torso, arms, and full hands with fingers. We've designed and built yet another upgraded version of the bot, Optimus Gen 2, adding an articulated neck, revamped hands with tactile sensing, and a tighter integration of harnesses, actuators, and electronics.
我们构建了一个非常低时延和高保真度的远程操作系统，用于收集机器人的人工智能训练数据，模仿人类执行特定任务。我们设计、训练和部署了一些首个端到端神经网络，用于人形机器人自主执行协调控制机器人躯干、胳膊和带有手指的全手的任务。我们设计和建造了机器人的升级版本"Optimus Gen 2"，增加了一个可动的脖子，配备了触觉感知的改进型手和更紧密集成的绳索、执行器和电子设备。
What made this possible? A fantastic group of passionate people working hard and well together, a scrappy, flexible, flat, and bureaucracy-free startup-like operating structure, a large-scale AI training and evaluation infrastructure, years worth of prior work on technology foundations for our cars, on actuators, batteries, AI chips, and autopilot software. The backing and vision of a CEO who does not shy away from tackling tough problems for the better of humanity. When the time is right, our manufacturing lines will be added to that list. Tesla is one of the very rare places on Earth with all of the critical ingredients to make this actually happen and the potential to shape a future of abundance for everyone.
是什么使这成为可能？是一群充满激情的人们共同努力并卓有成效的工作，一种敏捷、灵活和无官僚主义的初创企业式运营结构，一种大规模的人工智能培训和评估基础设施，多年来在汽车技术基础、驱动器、电池、人工智能芯片和自动驾驶软件方面进行的前期工作。还有一位首席执行官背后的支持和远见，他毫不退缩地解决艰难的问题，为人类谋福祉。在合适的时机，我们的生产线也将加入到这一名单中。特斯拉是地球上非常少见的一个拥有所有实现这一切所需关键要素，并有潜力为每个人创造丰盛未来的地方。
On X, Tony Tong shared an initial reaction to his using of FSD12.1. I do have to say, I've never seen anything from him before when it comes to FSD, so I don't know what type of framework he is coming from.
在X活动上，Tony Tong分享了他初次使用FSD12.1的感受。我必须说，在涉及FSD方面，我以前从来没有看到过他的任何表现，所以我不知道他是来自哪种框架。
Either way though, he was talking about 12.1 being more like a human and more natural as we would expect, and he said when he was in the fast lane on a two-lane highway, as the car saw a faster vehicle behind approaching, V12 actually signaled to get into the slower lane, let that car pass, and then got back into the passing lane.
不管怎样，他指的是12.1版本更像一个人类，更加自然，正如我们所期望的。他说，当他在双车道高速公路上行驶在快车道时，如果车辆后方有一辆更快的车接近，V12实际上会发出信号，进入慢车道，让那辆车超过，然后重新回到快车道。
For City Street Driving, he talked about a problem he dubs neighborhood lane-less road snaking, where with V11, the vehicle would move left or right, on those neighborhood roads that don't have any lines, and the car just perceives it as being a wide lane. He said with V12, that's now gone. He mentioned it handles bumps very well, for areas of improvement, he mentioned the stop sign situation, the car waiting a full five seconds, although he may be exaggerating here, but we know that's more of a knits a requirement than something Tesla is doing wrong.
对于城市街道驾驶，他谈到了一个他称之为“邻里无车道蛇行”的问题，在那些没有任何标线的邻里道路上，V11时的车辆将会左右移动，而车辆会将其视为宽阔的车道。他表示，V12中这个问题已经解决了。他提到它很好地处理了颠簸，至于改进方面，他提到了停车标志的情况，即车辆需要等待整整五秒钟，虽然他可能夸大了，但我们知道这更多是一个强求的要求，而不是特斯拉做错了什么。
Similar to V11, he said the main input that he's had to adjust for has been the speed control specifically when speeds are changing. Other areas for improvement, how it handles potholes, and how the vehicle should safely navigate around them, as well as V12, of course, needing to be traded in areas with inclement weather, not just sunny California.
他说，与V11类似，他主要需要调整的是速度控制，特别是在速度变化时。其他需要改进的地方包括车辆应如何安全地避免坑洼以及如何应对它们，当然了，V12还需要在恶劣天气下进行交通。这些都是需要注意的，而不仅仅是在阳光明媚的加利福尼亚地区。
Like I said though, personally, I'd like to see some reviews from somebody like Chris at Dirty Tesla or Chuck, because I know their existing framework with older variants of FSD, and I'll be able to gauge better what they're really feeling about 12.1, and specifically how much of an improvement they actually perceive this to be.
就像我已经说过的，从个人角度而言，我希望看到像Dirty Tesla的克里斯(Chris)或者查克(Chuck)这样的人提供一些评论，因为我知道他们对旧版本的全自动驾驶系统(FSD)有所了解，这样我就能更好地评估他们对12.1版本的真实感受，尤其是他们认为这次更新实际上有多大的改进。
One other early anecdote on 12.1 from AD, also saying it is incredibly natural.
还有一个早期的故事来自AD，同样说这是非常自然的。
Roaming Norway on X had a post really complaining about the V4 superchargers and specifically how the new cable is in use. We don't need to dive into all of the whys right now. I just wanted to share that Tesla charging actually responded saying, minor things matter, cable dock, and stiffness improvements are coming soon.
在X上漫游挪威的一个帖子中，有人对V4超级充电桩发表了一篇真正抱怨的帖子，特别是关于新电缆的使用方式。现在我们不需要深入探讨所有的原因。我只是想分享一下，特斯拉充电实际上回应说，细节问题很重要，电缆连接器和刚度改进即将推出。
Holmars was talking about Tesla stock saying it's still massively undervalued, to which Elon said I stand by my prediction that if Tesla executes extremely well over the next five years, that the long term value could exceed Apple and Aramco combined. As it stands now, just a few days later, Apple is valued at $2.8 trillion, Saudi Aramco at $2.1 trillion.
Holmars在谈论特斯拉的股票，称其仍然被低估了很多，对此埃隆说，我坚持我的预测，如果特斯拉在未来五年内表现出色，其长期价值有可能超过苹果和阿美石油的总和。目前来看，仅仅几天后，苹果的估值为2.8万亿美元，沙特阿美为2.1万亿美元。
The last time we talked about this, adding up Apple and Saudi Aramco took us to around a $4 trillion market cap, but now we are closer to $5 trillion. If you take that potential $5 trillion and divide it by Tesla's current market cap of $788 billion, that would be a rough $6.3x from today's value. I don't know about you, but Lord willing, I will be right here for that entire ride.
我们上次讨论这个问题的时候，苹果和沙特阿美公司的市值加起来大约有4万亿美元，但现在我们已经接近5万亿美元了。如果你将这个潜在的5万亿美元与特斯拉当前的市值7880亿美元相除，大约是今天价值的6.3倍。我不知道你怎么想，但只要上帝愿意，我会一直陪伴这整个过程。
This rumor that we have from Robert Scoble who said I learned from a Tesla employee at Fremont, they have already retooled. Expect an announcement in January and have the new Model 3 Plus or Highland on market by March.
这则传闻来自罗伯特·斯科布尔，他说他从一位在弗里蒙特的特斯拉员工那里得到了消息，他们已经进行了改装。预计在一月份会有一项宣布，并且新的Model 3 Plus或Highland将在三月份上市。
Then, as we have it, over the weekend, a Reddit user posted the refresh Model 3 spotted at Tesla engineering in Fremont, has a Fremont VIN, but a Chinese badge on the trunk. Why the Chinese badge? I'm not sure it could be for camouflage purposes, it could be that that part was only available from China, so they're just tooling and experimenting.
然后，正如我们所知，上周末，一位Reddit用户发布了在弗里蒙特的特斯拉工程部门发现的刷新版Model 3。这辆车有一个弗里蒙特的VIN码，但行李箱上却有一个中国徽标。为什么是中国徽标呢？我不确定，可能是为了伪装的目的，也可能是该部件只能从中国获得，所以他们只是在进行工具装备和试验。
Either way though, it seems clear that test production of the new Model 3 has begun at Fremont. In addition to that post, we had this one of a Model 3 refresh lot at the Fremont factory with two different images shown.
不管怎样，似乎明确的是，新款Model 3的测试生产在弗里蒙特已经开始。除了那篇帖子，我们还有一篇关于弗里蒙特工厂的Model 3改进批次的帖子，上面展示了两种不同的图片。
Now ordinarily, you'd be expecting some Model 3 price discount, so Tesla can clear through their inventory and maybe we'll see that, but you have to remember, given that that vehicle just lost the IRA tax credits, the gap between the Model Y and the Model 3 pricing has shrunk significantly for all Model 3s except the performance which still qualifies.
现在通常情况下，你可能会期待一些Model 3的价格折扣，这样特斯拉就能清理他们的库存，也许我们会看到这一点，但你必须记住，考虑到该车辆刚刚失去了IRA税收抵免，Model Y和Model 3的定价差距已经显著缩小，除了性能型以外所有的Model 3都不再符合资格。
I also want to say, I'm not sure if Tesla can pull it off, but I can almost guarantee you, right now, they are working on a way to get all Model 3 variants to qualify for the IRA tax credits. This is pure speculation on my part, no inside source for this one, so please don't make any buying decisions on that comment of mine, but I won't be surprised if Tesla finds a way to make that happen at some point this year.
我想说的是，我不确定特斯拉能不能成功，但我几乎可以保证，他们目前正在努力寻找方法使所有的Model 3车型都符合个人退休账户（IRA）税收减免的资格。这只是我的纯猜测，没有内部消息源支持，所以请不要根据我的评论做出任何购买决策，但如果特斯拉在今年某个时候找到方法实现这一点，我也不会感到惊讶。
We will be on the lookout for any Model 3 highland announcement this month.
本月我们将密切关注Model 3的任何高地（高产量）发布公告。
For the year in Norway, Tesla has topped Norway's car sales for three years in a row. Also, Tesla's share of the overall market has risen to 20% up from 12.2%. If you're wondering about second place in that market, it was Toyota at 12.4% and VW at 10.8%.
在挪威，特斯拉连续三年成为汽车销售冠军。此外，特斯拉在整体市场的份额已从12.2%上升至20%。如果你想知道该市场的第二名是谁，那就是丰田，占12.4%，而大众则为10.8%。
This one at least for now is just a feel good story. We have the Model Y becoming Sweden's best selling car over the course of 2023. So despite all of the sympathy strikes and the nonsense going on, that was a 120% increase in sales compared to 2022. That's despite the overall market in Sweden having a very tough year in 2023, where the country saw sales of about 280,000 cars over the year, which was below 2022. So Tesla's market share in Sweden has more than doubled year over year despite having their hands tied to some degree.
现在至少这个故事只是一个让人感觉良好的故事。在2023年期间，我们看到了Model Y成为了瑞典最畅销的汽车。所以尽管有所有的同情罢工和荒唐之举，与2022年相比，销售增长了120%。这是尽管瑞典整体汽车市场在2023年度非常困难，全年销量约为28万辆，低于2022年。所以尽管在一定程度上受到了限制，特斯拉在瑞典的市场份额已经翻了一番。
I really don't think I need to touch on this, but I'm going to anyway. You may have seen BYD sold more EV only vehicles in quarter four than Tesla. Some people are making this out to be some monumental deal. And listen, I'm not at all trying to take away from the success of BYD. They should be praised. They're doing incredibly well. That said, they sell cars at a much different average selling price than Tesla. It may be close to half of what Tesla's is, meaning the overlap in the market BYD plays in and where Tesla is selling its vehicles really do not overlap nearly as much as people think. That will change through 2024 as BYD goes upscale. But to date, BYD and Tesla are not really direct competitors as much as one may think. And let's not forget globally, we need between 10, 20, maybe even 30 companies in the long term selling EVs profitably at scale. It's not just going to be one or two brands. Plus this leaves out the profitability story, etc.
我其实不认为我需要谈论这个，但我还是要说一下。你可能已经看到BYD在第四季度卖出的纯电动车辆比特斯拉多。有些人对此大惊小怪。但请注意，我并不是想削弱BYD的成功。他们做得非常出色。然而，他们的汽车的平均售价要远远低于特斯拉。可能接近特斯拉售价的一半，这意味着BYD所处的市场和特斯拉销售车辆的市场并不十分重叠。这种情况将在2024年发生改变，因为BYD将向高端市场发展。但迄今为止，BYD和特斯拉实际上并不是像人们想象的那样直接的竞争对手。而且，全球来看，在长期内我们需要10家、20家甚至更多的公司能够盈利、规模化销售电动车。不仅仅会是一两个品牌。此外，这还忽略了盈利能力等方面的故事。
I know some people are saying that Rivian had a bad quarter for they put out their delivery numbers. They produced 17.5,000 and delivered 13.9000. I don't follow Rivian closely enough to know what's happening with that 3,600 vehicle gap when it comes to production and deliveries. I say that because traditionally looking at the difference for Rivian between production and deliveries, that number has only been between 1,000 and 2,000, so 3,600 would be a new high for Rivian and not in a good way. But as we've seen with Tesla, there are always things going on whether it's supply chain or logistics or stink bugs. So it's just one quarter, but for now at least something to watch, Silver lining of course, new record for production.
我知道有些人正在说，Rivian在发布交付数据时度过了一个糟糕的季度。他们生产了17.5万辆，交付了13.9万辆。我没有密切关注Rivian，所以不清楚产量和交付之间那3,600辆车的差距出了什么问题。我之所以这么说，是因为在传统意义上，Rivian的产量和交付之间的差异通常只有1,000到2,000辆，所以3,600辆将是Rivian的一个新高，但并不是一个好的方面。但正如我们在特斯拉身上所看到的那样，总是会发生各种事情，不管是供应链、物流还是丑陋的虫子。所以这只是一个季度，但目前至少是值得关注的事情，当然，好的方面是创下了新的生产记录。
Hopefully you've picked up on the theme that Tesla has been breaking records and making history as we close out 2023. Best in Tesla shared a nice graphic again showing us that the Model Y became the best selling car ever in Denmark's history and the best selling vehicle this year. Doing it in style by the way, tripling up the second place vehicle, the PUGO 208. If it's predictions that you like Elon said 2024 is going to be even more crazy, is my prediction. Alright so that wraps up the electrified portion of this video, so if that's all you're interested in, feel free to leave. Thank you for watching as always, hope to see you tomorrow.
希望你已经注意到特斯拉在2023年取得了破纪录和创造历史的主题。Best in Tesla再次分享了一张漂亮的图表，显示Model Y成为丹麦历史上最畅销的汽车，并成为今年最畅销的车型。顺便说一句，它以三倍的销量超过了第二名车型，即PUGO 208。如果你喜欢预测，埃隆说2024年将更加疯狂，这是我的预测。好了，现在电动部分的内容就到此为止了，如果你只对这个感兴趣，随时可以离开。感谢一如既往地观看，希望明天再见到你。
Now just some other stuff. Last week I was really planning to work, but on Tuesday I woke up with a sty in my eye, first time I've ever experienced one, and it was as annoying as I've heard people talk about. Fun fact about me, the one time in my life I've ever passed out had to do with an eye issue, got something stuck in my eye and what they had to do to get it out, my body did not react well to. Then come Wednesday night, I started getting pain in my chest. Now I couldn't tell what it was like a muscle or something in my ribs, didn't really think it was my heart, you know I'm 34, generally in good health, but it kept getting worse, I couldn't really sleep Wednesday night or Thursday night, and then on Friday of course my wife and family wanted me to go to the hospital just to make sure it wasn't anything more serious. And by that point I definitely wanted some answers too because I couldn't sleep and I was wondering what was going on. Long story short, after a bunch of different tests they said that my heart was normal, chest x-rays were normal, they thought it was an intercostal muscle strain or tear. They gave me a steroid to take but I opted not to take it because I do like going the natural route when I can, all that to say I'm feeling much better, I can sleep now, but if I breathe in too deep or laugh or I haven't even sneezed yet, it still gives me pain right here. So as you can tell, I'm mostly good, I have not been able to work out, I'm still not working out yet because again I can still feel it in certain positions or when things happen, but overall we are on the road to recovery, thank you everybody for your concern.
现在只是一些其他的事情。上周我真的计划工作，但周二醒来时眼睛有个疖疮，这是我第一次经历，就像我听别人说的那样讨厌。关于我有趣的事实是，我一生中昏倒的那一次与眼睛问题有关，有东西卡在眼睛里，取出时，我的身体反应不好。然后到了星期三晚上，我开始感到胸部疼痛。我无法确定是肌肉还是肋骨的问题，不认为是心脏，毕竟我今年34岁，身体总体上很健康，但疼痛越来越严重，星期三晚上和星期四晚上睡不好觉，当然，星期五我妻子和家人希望我去医院确保情况不会更严重。而到了那个时候，我也确实想要一些答案，因为我无法入睡，不知道发生了什么。长话短说，在接受了一系列不同的测试后，他们说我的心脏正常，胸部X光片正常，他们认为是肋间肌肉扭伤或撕裂。他们给了我一种类固醇药物，但我选择不服用，因为我喜欢尽可能采取自然疗法，总之，我感觉好多了，现在可以睡觉了，但如果我吸气太深或笑或甚至还没打喷嚏，这里仍然会有疼痛。所以如你所见，我大部分情况都还不错，我还不能锻炼，因为在特定的姿势或出现状况时仍然感到疼痛，但总体上我们正在康复的路上，感谢大家的关心。
Now since I did not get to do my electrified presents Christmas special, I just want to take a few seconds to give us all a few things to consider as we head into the new year.
现在，由于没有能够进行我电气化礼物的圣诞特别节目，我想花几秒钟给大家提供一些考虑的事情，以迎接新的一年。
So often I see people saying well I believe in science, so therefore I can't believe in faith or I would never believe in God because I believe in science.
我经常看到人们说：“我相信科学，因此我不相信信仰，也从不相信上帝，因为我相信科学。”
这句话表达的意思是，有很多人认为科学和信仰互相矛盾，因此他们选择相信科学而不相信信仰，也因此否定了上帝的存在。
Look, respectfully I just don't think that's the best logic to deploy, you can go back and look this stuff up on your own, but most of the early scientists that created science as we know it today were actually committed Christians, so ultimately this science that we now know and love, myself included, was founded mainly and largely through Christian principles.
请注意，我非常尊敬地认为这并不是最佳的逻辑方法。你可以自己去查阅这方面的资料，但是我们今天所熟知的科学，大部分是由早期的基督徒科学家们建立的。因此，我们现在所热爱并了解的科学，包括我自己在内，主要是基于基督教原则建立起来的。
Simply put, the way I see it, science is a great gift from God that actually points us closer and closer to him, revealing more of his properties that he has instilled through creation.
简而言之，以我看来，科学是上帝赐予我们的一件伟大礼物，它实际上将我们越来越靠近他，揭示了他通过创造注入的更多特性。
This isn't going to become an apologetics video, I just want to make it clear that the idea that science and God are like this is wrong in my opinion, it's actually like this.
这并不是一个辩护视频，我只是想清楚地表明，在我看来，科学和上帝之间就像这样的观念是错误的，实际上是这样的。
If any of you want a non-biblical source to start reading and you're open, you're exploring, I highly recommend this book by Lee Strobel, it's called A Case for Christ, personally I've read it and given it to many family members.
如果你们中的任何人想要开始阅读一本非圣经来源的书籍，并且你们持开放态度，正在探索，我强烈推荐李·斯特罗布尔的这本书，它叫做《基督的案例》。就个人而言，我已经阅读了这本书，并且还给了许多家人阅读。
If you're struggling financially, hit me up via email, I'd be happy to buy it for at least a few of you.
如果你经济上有困难，给我发封电子邮件吧，我很乐意至少帮几个人买单。
Long story short, Lee was an investigative journalist who set out to disprove Christianity, but through his research and his findings he was actually converted and came to faith in Christ.
简而言之，李是一位调查记者，他打算推翻基督教，但通过他的研究和所得到的发现，他实际上被皈依，并对基督信仰产生了信心。
Spoiler alert, why did he actually convert to Christianity? Well, theologically yes, God did it, but from a worldly perspective, it was due to the overwhelming evidence around the historicity of Jesus Christ and the resurrection.
剧透警告，他为什么真的皈依基督教呢？从神学的角度来看，是的，那是上帝的作为，但从世俗的角度来看，这是因为有大量关于耶稣基督和复活的历史证据，对他产生了压倒性的影响。
Speaking of the resurrection, I know this all sounds like lunacy if you're somebody that does not have faith in God at the moment. But what I really want to say is just ask yourself, in the depths of your soul, have you really, with an open mind and an open heart, explored Christianity and the true Christianity, not what culture thinks it is.
说到复活，如果你现在没有对上帝的信仰，我知道这一切听起来都很荒谬。但是我真正想要说的是，请你从你灵魂的深处问问自己，你是否真正在心灵上持有开放的态度，真正地去探索基督教和真正的基督教，而不是文化认为的那个样子。
If you've spent significant time over years actually genuinely seeking the Lord, not seeking to disprove him by the way, but trying to find him if he were to be real, that's one thing.
如果你花费了多年的时间真诚地寻求主，而不是试图反驳他的存在，而是试图找到他是否真实存在，那就是另一回事了。
But in my experience, I know so many people who don't believe in God for the wrong reasons. They see hypocritical Christians, they see evil in the world, so then they assume, well, there can't be a good God.
根据我的经验，我知道很多人因为错误的理由而不相信上帝。他们看到伪善的基督徒，看到世界上的邪恶，于是就认为，好的上帝是不存在的。
Maybe even they've had terrible things happen to them themselves. Not at all to discount the pain that some of that stuff can bring.
也许甚至他们自己也经历了可怕的事情。这一点绝对不是为了忽视那些事情可能带来的痛苦。
All I'm saying is that it does not disprove who Jesus was, what he did 2000 years ago, and whether or not he actually rose from the dead.
我要说的是，这并不能否定耶稣是谁、他在2000年前做了什么以及他是否真的复活的事实。
And I have to say it, Christianity is not about being good enough to get into heaven. It's not some sort of weighing are my good deeds going to outweigh my bad deeds.
我不得不说，基督教并不是指为了得到进入天堂而足够善良。它不是一种权衡，即我的善行是否能超过我的恶行。
So if you ask somebody, well, hey, how do you get to heaven? If it's real, and they say, well, you have to be good enough, that answer is wrong, and they don't actually know what they're talking about.
所以，如果你问别人，嗨，怎么才能进入天堂？如果天堂是真实存在的，他们回答说，好，你必须足够善良，那个回答是错误的，而且他们实际上不知道自己在谈论什么。
So if you're actually going to reject Christianity, the real version of it, here's what it is. It's that God himself, Jesus Christ chose to enter the world to put on flesh, to live a life that we could never live on our behalf.
所以，如果你真的要拒绝基督教，真正的基督教，我来解释一下。基督教的核心观念就是上帝自己，耶稣基督选择降临到世界上，化身成为我们无法达到的完美人生。
Then he actually died the death that we all deserve. That's because all have sinned and fallen short of the glory of God.
然后，他真正走上了我们都应得的死亡之路。这是因为每个人都犯了罪，并且未能达到上帝的荣耀。
Have you ever lied? You're a liar. Have you ever stolen anything? You're a thief. Have you ever lusted after another person in your mind? You're an adulterer at heart.
你有撒谎过吗？你是个骗子。你有偷过东西吗？你是个小偷。你有在心里对另一个人有过欲望吗？你是一个心中的通奸者。
I think you get the picture on Judgment Day, if we were to be judged based on our actions and our morals alone, every single one of us all fall short.
我认为在审判日上，如果我们只根据我们的行为和道德来被判定，那么我们每个人都会不足。
That's why Jesus chose to enter the world to live the life he knew we never could, so that when we put our faith and trust in him as Lord and Savior, then when God looks down on us, he actually sees Christ's perfection and not all of our sin.
这就是为什么耶稣选择降临世间，过着我们终究无法达到的生活，因此当我们以他为主并信靠他为救主时，当上帝审视我们的时候，他看到的实际上是基督的完美，而不是我们所有的罪恶。
All of our sin, past, present, and future was nailed to the cross when Jesus took that death that we all deserve.
当耶稣承受我们所有应该承受的死亡时，我们所有的罪，无论以往、现在还是将来，都被钉在了十字架上。
Then, three days later, he rose from the grave, proving he has authority over life and death, overcoming the world.
然后，三天后，他从坟墓中复活了，证明他拥有生死的权柄，战胜了世界。
So faith in Christ is a free gift. We don't have to do anything.
对基督的信仰是一份自由的恩赐。我们不必做任何事情。
There is nothing we can earn. It is not up to us at all. All we have to do is seek the Lord with an open mind and an open heart, then he tells us that those who seek will find.
我们无法获得任何东西，这完全不由我们决定。我们所要做的就是以一颗开放的心和思想去寻求上帝，然后他告诉我们寻求的人将能找到。
So all we have to do to have our sins forgiven is accept this free gift from Jesus Christ that he has made available to everyone.
所以，我们要做的就是接受耶稣基督为每个人提供的这个免费的恩赐，以便得到我们的罪得赦免。
I could really keep going here, but I want to try to keep this brief. So the way I want to close is I just encourage you to seek him with an open mind and open heart.
我可以在这里继续详细说明，但我想要让这个简洁一些。所以，我想以鼓励你以一颗开放的心和开放的思想去寻找他作为结束。
Let go of any preconceived notions about Christianity. Try to let go of some of that hurt. Maybe you've experienced from other Christians. Look, if you look to other people that believe in Christ, you're always going to be let down myself included. So we have to block all of that out and seek and look to Jesus Christ alone. The best way to do that is to start reading the Gospels in the Bible, Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John. That tells us about the life that Jesus lived from four different perspectives.
放下对基督教的任何先入之见。试着释怀一些你可能因为其他基督徒而受到的伤害。看，如果你寄望于其他相信基督的人，你总是会失望，包括我自己在内。所以我们必须屏蔽一切干扰，单单寻求并依靠耶稣基督。最好的方法就是开始阅读《圣经》中的福音书，马太福音、马可福音、路加福音和约翰福音。这四本书从不同的视角告诉我们耶稣的生活。
And to my brothers and sisters in Christ, continue to run your race. Well, be bold, stand up for the truth. It's going to cost you something in this culture. You might lose friends, you might lose followers, you might lose money, but at the end of the day, the rewards, those eternal rewards, and the joy of the Lord living in obedience to him trumps anything else. It's not worth comparing. Read the word every day, no excuses. Surround yourself with Christian community. We are not meant to isolate. Stay in prayer, and you will be in mine as well.
对于我在基督里的兄弟姐妹们，继续奔跑你们的比赛吧。哪怕在这个文化中，要勇敢，为真理站出来是需要付出代价的。你可能会失去朋友，失去追随者，失去金钱，但是到最后，那些永恒的回报和顺服主的喜乐将使一切变得微不足道。它不值得去比较。每天阅读圣经，没有借口。将自己置身于基督徒的社群中，我们不是为了孤立而存在。时刻保持祷告，我也会为你祈祷。
And if any unbelievers are still watching at this point, I just want to say I'm sharing this because I love you guys. You can believe it or not, but I really believe that hell is real and that eternity with the Lord forever in paradise is available to all of us who accept the true gospel, the salvation through Jesus Christ alone. That is why I'm sharing. I want you to hear that message. I want you ultimately to be saved and to know all of those good things that God can do for you both now for the rest of your worldly life and for eternity.
如果有任何非信仰者仍在此时观看，我只想说我分享这个是因为我爱你们。你可以相信或不相信，但我真心相信地狱是真实存在的，接受真福音、唯有通过耶稣基督得救可以让我们永远在天堂与主同在。这就是为什么我要分享的原因。我希望你们听到这个信息。我最终希望你们得救，并且认识到上帝在今生和永恒中能为你们做的一切美好事情。
Father, thank you for this community. Thank you for every soul watching this video, both now and into the future. I pray that you do what only you can do, that you save souls. Give people that do not yet believe in you, that do not yet know you. Give them new hearts like only you can do. Save their souls, Lord, so that they may come to know you and your goodness, your joy, forgiveness, mercy, love, and truth, both now and forever.
父亲，感谢您的这个社区。感谢每一个现在和将来观看这个视频的灵魂。我祈求您只有您能做的事情，拯救灵魂。赐予那些尚未相信您，尚未认识您的人新的心灵，只有您才能做到。拯救他们的灵魂，上帝，让他们能够认识您和您的良善、喜乐、宽恕、怜悯、爱和真理，无论现在还是永远。
And Lord, to all of the believers watching, I pray that you give them boldness and encouragement to run their race well. If they're far from you, draw them back in in this very moment. God, it's all for your glory and your glory alone. It's for your beautiful name we pray. Amen.
主啊，愿你给正在观看的所有信徒勇气和鼓励，让他们能够好好完成自己的赛程。如果他们远离你，就在此时此刻将他们招回来。上帝啊，这一切都是为了你的荣耀，只为了你美丽的名字而祈祷。阿门。