E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
发布时间 2023-12-29 17:00:44 来源
摘要
(0:00) Welcome to the fourth annual Bestie Awards! (4:14) Biggest Political Winner (10:26) Biggest Political Loser (15:14) Biggest ...
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中英文字稿 
All right, everybody, welcome back. It is our fourth annual Bestie Awards. Yes, everybody is incredibly excited to hear the biggest winners in politics and losers in business. Best science breakthroughs. So many amazing categories with me again. Chairman dictator, Chamath, Polly Hopatia, our billionaire, Pock. Welcome back to the program, Chamath. Bye, Pock. That's right. I said billionaire, Pock. billionaire, percent color. Yes, please get it right. And running the all in DEI group, the Rainman of South David Sachs. Welcome back to the program. Good to be here. Okay. And the Sultan of Science. Welcome back to the program. Are you ready with your selections, gentlemen? Are we ready to do this? J. Cal, this is the holiday episode. You got to have a little more cheer. This isn't all business, dude. Cue the music, Nick. Three, two.
好的，大家好，欢迎回来。这是我们第四届年度“最佳奖”颁奖典礼。是的，大家都非常激动地期待着政治界的大赢家和商界的失败者。还有最佳科学突破。有很多令人惊叹的类别，我继续担任主席独裁者，Chamath、Polly Hopatia、我们的亿万富翁Pock。欢迎回到节目，Chamath。再见，Pock。是的，我说的是亿万富翁Pock，亿万富翁，有着色彩。是的，请记住。还有我们的多元融合团队的领导人，南方的Rainman David Sachs。欢迎回来节目。很高兴能在这里。好的。还有我们的科学教父。欢迎回到节目。各位先生准备好选择了吗？我们准备好了吗？J. Cal，这是节日特辑。你得更有喜庆气氛。这不仅仅是生意，伙计。来点音乐，Nick，3、2、1。
Yes. And here we are, everybody back again for the 2023 Bestie Awards. This is where everybody goes crazy. Oh my God. Standing ovation. Hold on. Who's drinking some champagne with me? I need some champagne popping. What are you guys drinking? These are the awards. Everybody wants to know who's going to be a winner. You're right. I need a drink. Hold on. He needs a drink for this. I need a drink too. Can I go get a drink? Hang on. Everybody get a drink and loosen it up. I'm at my office. I'm in an alcohol here. Look in your second draw. Winner's ride. Rain man. David.
是的。我们又回到了2023年的最佳朋友奖项。这是每个人都疯狂的地方。天啊，掌声雷动。等一下，有谁和我一起喝些香槟？我需要一些香槟的声音。你们在喝什么？这些是颁奖典礼。每个人都想知道谁将成为胜利者。你说得对。我需要喝一杯。等一下，他为此需要一杯饮料。我也需要一杯。我可以去拿一杯吗？等一下。大家都去拿一杯饮料，放松一下。我在我的办公室，这里有酒。去你的第二个抽屉看看。获奖者的出场。Rain man. David.
All right, everybody. Welcome to the Bestie Awards for 2023. What are you drinking? I got a little Vovkleko. You know, I love my. You're actually going to drink it? You know, I people don't know this about me, but that was my beverage of choice was the old Vovkleko when I would go out in New York.
好的，各位。欢迎来到2023年的最佳伙伴奖。你们都喝什么？我有一点点Vovkleko。你们知道的，我喜欢它。你真的会喝吗？你们知道吗，人们对我不知道的是，以前在纽约，我出去的时候我最爱的就是那种古老的Vovkleko饮料。
What have you got there, Saks? What are you drinking for the 2023 Bestie Awards? What are you drinking? I'm drinking my class as old Repassado in the class with a single big rock, and I broke out my patriotic great silly United States class. This is a tribute to the border. You got a little bit of Mexico, a little bit of the United States. And is it flowing between the border and you? Is that it? It's open border now. Open border for 20 years. Open at this point. Gotcha. Okay. Just flooding in.
萨克斯，你拿了什么？你为2023年最佳奖项喝什么？你在喝什么？我在喝我课程中最古老的雷帕萨多，里面有一块大冰块，我还拿出了我充满爱国主义的美国酒杯。这是对边境的致敬。你有一点墨西哥，一点美国。它流淌在边界之间，对吗？现在是开放边境。开放边界已有20年了。在这个点上开放。明白了。好的。就是大量涌入。
You're not drinking. You're at the office. Freeburg. I mean, I didn't plan. I brought my props to wish everybody happy holidays. Oh, nice. It's beautiful. And that's best sweater. Amazing.
你没在喝酒。你在办公室。弗里堡。我的意思是，我没有计划。我带了我的道具来祝大家节日快乐。哦，太棒了。太漂亮了。那是最好的毛衣。太棒了。
Freeburg, everybody knows that you're a quiet solo drinker in your darkest hours. What are you drinking? There's no surprises there. What are you drinking? I'm always drinking what I got to hang out with you, J. Cal. I'm drinking a Victoria beer. A Victoria beer. That is true, actually. Yeah. I don't think you hang out with J. Cal so we're doing.
弗里伯格，大家都知道在你最黑暗的时刻你是个安静的独自饮酒者。你在喝什么？没有什么意外。你在喝什么？我总是喝我拿来和你一起消磨时间的东西，J. Cal。我正在喝一瓶维多利亚啤酒。一瓶维多利亚啤酒。这是真的。是的。我觉得你没有和J. Cal一起出去。
Oh, everybody. There it is. I do not. We've got the Vuvkliko. Unfortunately, at my ski house, I can't find the flute, so I'm going to put this in a wine glass for the sacrilege. But cheers. Here's to another amazing year of the all-in podcast and the Bestie saying, Cheers. You want to say it to words, J. Cal? I'd like to say a few words in memoriam of the year. Yes. Working with you guys has been delightful, miserable, and everything in between. Congratulations on all of our success. And here's to an amazing 2024. And hopefully we find a CEO and we can keep this thing going for another 150 or so episodes. Nobody thought we would get here. Everybody hates us for our success. And the mids and the haters. Love you, Besties. Cheers.
大家好，这就是它。我并不觉得有什么了不起。我们有Vuvkliko（一种酒）。不幸的是，在我的滑雪小屋里找不到长笛，所以我准备将它放在酒杯里。但是干杯吧！祝愿全新的播客和最好的伙伴们度过另一个令人惊艳的一年。你想用几个词表达吗，J. Cal？我想对这一年表达几句缅怀之情。是的。和你们一起工作是愉快的，也是痛苦的，所有事情就在中间。恭喜我们的成功。愿2024年精彩非凡，并希望我们能找到一位首席执行官，使这个项目继续进行150集左右。没有人认为我们能到达这里。每个人都讨厌我们的成功。中等人和讨厌者。爱你们，最好的朋友们。干杯。
I would like to make a toast. Here we go. Here is to three of the most talented, warm, friendly guys and J. Cal. Yeah, he was coming. I couldn't jump for him out from me. I can touch in that one. I can touch in this direction. Don't ever forget him, brother.
我想发表个祝酒词。让我们开始吧。为这三个最有才华、热情友好的小伙子和J. Cal干杯。对，他也来了。我无法用言语形容对他的深深思念。他在我心中留下了痕迹。我可以感受到他的存在。永远不要忘记他，伙计。
All right. Well, to three of the most sincere, heartfelt, intelligent, loving individuals, and David Sachs. Welcome to the program. I'm here for you. And let's just get to it. We're going to give our 2023 award for the biggest winner in politics. Last year, Chamath, you said that your prediction for 2023, now we're going to give the actual award for 2033. But in our predictions episode last year, you said you were long, Nikki, alien, short to Santa's. What a prescient call. What do you have this year? That's bread trade paid off in spades. Yeah. But it's a great trade. Looking back, I think the biggest political winner was Donald Trump. I think that the documents case galvanized his leadership in the Republican nomination. And I think that this move by the Colorado Supreme Court basically sealed the deal. I think he is going to run away with the Republican nomination. And barring some catastrophic meltdown, has a better chance to get into the White House than before this Colorado case. So he was the biggest political winner, I think of 2023. It just seems to me that if I had to really put it in a nutshell, I think that the dem in this weird way actually want Trump back in office more than the Republicans do, because everything they've done has been near sighted. And I think has actually galvanized his support and increased his popularity and his ability to fundraise more than anything else.
好的。好的。首先，对于三位最真诚、真挚、聪明、爱心满满的个人以及大卫·萨克斯表示欢迎。欢迎来到节目。我在这里为你们服务。让我们开始吧。我们要给出我们2023年政治最大赢家奖。去年，Chamath，你说你对2023年的预测，现在我们要给出真正的2033年奖项。但在去年的预测节目中，你说你对尼基、外星人做多，圣诞老人做空。这真是一个英明的决策。你今年有什么想法？这个交易可算是大赚了一把。是的。但这是一个伟大的交易。回顾过去，我认为最大的政治赢家是唐纳德·特朗普。我认为文件案件激发了他在共和党提名中的领导地位。我认为科罗拉多最高法院的这个举动基本上定下了局势。我认为他将轻松赢得共和党提名。除非发生一些灾难性的崩溃，否则他进入白宫的机会比以前这个科罗拉多案件之前更大。所以我认为他是2023年最大的政治赢家。在我看来，如果我真的要简单概括一下，我认为民主党实际上比共和党更希望特朗普重新上任，因为他们所做的一切都是目光短浅的。我认为这实际上激发了他的支持，增加了他的受欢迎程度和筹款能力，超过了其他任何事情。
Friedberg, who is your biggest political winner of 2023? Who did I give it to last year? Do you remember? You gave it to MBS and Saudi that they would have the your prediction was they would have the money. But in some ways, I think they are center stage. That's what I am giving my biggest winner.
弗里德伯格，在2023年，你认为谁是你最大的政治赢家？去年你给谁了这个称号？你还记得吗？你给了穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼和沙特阿拉伯，因为你预测他们会有财富。但某种程度上，我认为他们是中心舞台中的角色。这就是我认为最大赢家的原因。
I'm giving my biggest political winner award to the nation state of Saudi Arabia. Oh, why? Like they are sitting in the middle of the US, China, Iran, Israel, Russia, they have relations with all of those nations and relations where they are trying to be productive. Extraordinary leverage with both their capital, their geographic positioning and their energy resourcing and painting a very positive future on how they want to reinvest their capital and modernize the country.
我要把我最大的政治胜利者奖项颁给阿拉伯沙特国。为什么？因为他们位于美国、中国、伊朗、以色列以及俄罗斯的中心位置，与所有这些国家保持关系，并且致力于建立具有生产力的关系。他们凭借他们的资本、地理位置和能源资源拥有极大的影响力，并且积极塑造了一个非常积极的未来，希望重新投资资本并实现国家现代化。
And I think one of the biggest who's that they pulled this year was turning Jay Kal to being a big promoter of Saudi after his visit to the Middle East. And so I think they're entering 2024 with great strength and leverage. So I give them credit for writing out many storms this year and coming out ahead. So it's just it's been interesting to watch. I'm not I'm not close or tied to them in any way, but I just think from a global leverage point of view, they seem to be in a very strong place. So that's my yeah, my award.
今年他们拉拢了让杰·卡尔成为沙特的强大推广者，我认为这是他们pull off的最大策略之一。因此，我认为他们以极强的力量和影响力进入2024年。所以我要称赞他们在今年度过了许多困难时刻并获得胜利。观察这一切真的很有趣。虽然我与他们没有任何关系，但我认为从全球影响力的角度来看，他们似乎处于非常有力的地位。这就是我的奖项评选。
I can't disagree with you that the place has made incredible progress. Personal freedoms, economic freedoms, the country is evolving and embracing every country on the planet. So you have to take that as a win. I have no business interest there, but I am impressed with the progress. So SACSAT means it's your turn to give a short 2023 biggest winner.
我无法不同意你的看法，这个地方取得了惊人的进步。个人自由、经济自由，这个国家正在发展并接纳地球上的每一个国家。所以你必须把这看作是一种胜利。我在那里没有商业利益，但我对这种进步印象深刻。所以SACSAT意味着轮到你谈谈2023年的最大成功者。
My biggest winner in politics, Jay Kal, I think you'll like this one is abortion rights. Abortion rights. Affibortion rights after Dobbs abortion rights are winning on every battle where they're at issue. It's one referendum in very red states like Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, and Ohio. It swung legislatures to the Dems and swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia. It swung states from court races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I'd go so far as to say it's the Democrats only winning issue and they are putting it on the ballot everywhere they can. Ruth Bader Ginsburg pointed out around 30 years ago that we likely could have reached this resolution decades ago if the courts hadn't stolen the issue from the political process because abortion rights were in the process of being liberalized everywhere. And in my view, the political process is messy, but it's how we finally move past the issue as a nation, which is why I think Dobbs was the right decision, even if it was a difficult one.
我在政治方面最大的胜利者，杰伊·卡尔，我认为你会喜欢这个问题是堕胎权利。堕胎权利。在多布斯案之后，堕胎权利在每个争议问题上都取得了胜利。在堪萨斯、肯塔基、蒙大拿和俄亥俄等非常保守的州进行了一次公民投票。它改变了民主党在密歇根、宾夕法尼亚和弗吉尼亚等摇摆州的立法机构，以及在宾夕法尼亚和威斯康星的法院竞选中改变了州的归属。我甚至敢说这是民主党唯一取胜的问题，他们正在争取将堕胎权利纳入到所有可能的选票中。30年前，鲁斯·巴德·金斯伯格指出，如果法院没有夺取这个问题，我们可能在几十年前就已经解决了这个问题，因为堕胎权利在全国范围内正在逐渐被放宽。在我看来，政治过程是混乱的，但这是我们作为一个国家最终摆脱这个问题的方式，这就是为什么我认为多布斯案是正确的决定，即使它是一个艰难的决定。
Dr. Justin Marchegiani Huh, interesting. So you are smoothing over Trump's taking away the right for women to choose and saying that this is a net positive for the country. If I'm reading it correctly.
啊，有趣。所以你在描述特朗普剥夺妇女选择权利时，将其解读为对国家有积极影响。如果我理解正确的话。
Dr. Justin Marchegiani Well, Trump didn't take anything away. That's string board. Dr. Justin Marchegiani He's placed for people who do it. The string courses go on. I just explained it. You're not listening. String court gave the issue back to the democratic process. The democratic process is now voting to maintain abortion rights. And that is gonna settle the issue once and for all. So interesting for all of your fears that abortion rights would fall by the wayside because that's from court decision have actually proven to be null and void. What we're ending up with is a better solution where the country doesn't need to fight about this anymore because the voters have expressed the will of the people.
强尼·马凯金尼博士：嗯，特朗普没有取消任何法案。那是谣言。他为做出这样的决定提供了论据。法案仍然有效。你没有听到我的解释。最高法院将问题交回给了民主程序。现在，人们进行投票来维护堕胎权利。这将最终解决这个问题。有趣的是，你们担心堕胎权利会被抛弃，因为法院的决定已经被证明是无效的。我们得到了一个更好的解决方案，国家不再需要为此而争论，因为选民已经表达了人民的意愿。
Dr. Justin Marchegiani Fantastic framing. Great save for the Republican party there.
强大的言辞。这对共和党是一个伟大的救命稻草。
Dr. Justin Marchegiani Well, it will be unless they learn how to talk about the issue.
嗯，除非他们学会怎样谈论问题，否则事情将不会变得容易。
Dr. Justin Marchegiani Yeah. I mean, the way I would frame the same issue is that Trump stacked the deck to take away women's right to choose in order to get elected. But your framing is pretty good too. And you're a master of framing these things.
杰斯汀·马尔奇耶尼（Justin Marchegiani博士）：是的，我的意思是，特朗普为了当选而采取措施削弱了妇女的选择权。但你的表达方式也相当不错。你在这方面很擅长。
So I was torn here for mine. I had two different choices. I was either gonna go with Nikki Halli because what an amazing feat for her to even be getting close to Trump in some of these primaries. But I think the biggest winners in this year of 2023 were non-traditional candidates actually becoming somewhat viable in capturing the imagination of young people, Vivek RFK indeed, Phillips being I think the three leading candidates. So I'm gonna go with the non-traditional candidates being the big winners for 2023. And for last year, I had said that my prediction was what the for 2023 was that Trump would get indicted, win the nomination, and then agree to not run because he gets a pardon. So I think I've got two or three of those in the parlay in the bag.
所以我在这里为自己感到犹豫。我有两个不同的选择。我要么会选择Nikki Halli，因为她在这些初选中能够接近特朗普真是了不起。但我认为，2023年最大的赢家实际上是非传统候选人，他们在吸引年轻人的想象力方面变得有些可行，象征人物确实是Vivek RFK, Phillips，我认为他们是三位领先的候选人。所以我要选非传统候选人作为2023年的大赢家。至于去年，我曾预测特朗普会被起诉、赢得提名，然后同意不参选，因为他获得了赦免。所以我认为我在这些预测中有两到三条准备好了。
Let's go on to biggest loser. The biggest loser in politics. When we did our predictions for 2023, Chamath, you said that you were short to Santis. Here we are. We're giving our actual award for the biggest political loser in 2023.
让我们来谈谈最大的失败者——政治中的最大失败者。当我们对2023年进行预测时，Chamath，你说你认为Santis会失利。现在我们要授予2023年最大的政治失败者实际奖项。
Freeburg, I'll start with you. Who is your biggest political loser for 2023?
Freeburg，我从你开始。2023年，你认为谁是你最大的政治失败者？
My biggest political loser is the DEI movement. Oh, I heard obviously post October 7, the Hamas attacks on Israel. And then the following support for Hamas that came out of what have historically been groups that are aligned with DEI interests and then the DEI driven leaders of the universities that went in front of Congress to defend their freedom of speech rules around anti-Semitic protests caused a lot of folks that I know who are very liberal and very influential to wake up to the negative impacts of the DEI movement. And it's linkage to potentially anti-Semitism, which is massed in this oppressor oppressed ideology. That is the basis of a lot of these DEI protocols. And so I think it really shined a negative light on DEI this year in a way that hasn't been the case in a broader way with very influential people in a very long time. And so I think that that movement is going to take a big hit and took a big hit the end of this year and will continue to, I think, be questioned by donors and supporters of the ideologies of that movement.
我最大的政治失败者是尊重多元包容平等（DEI）运动。噢，我显然在10月7日之后听到了哈马斯对以色列的攻击。然后，历史上与DEI利益息息相关的团体的支持以及DEI主导的大学领导们在国会面前为捍卫反犹太主义抗议规则而辩护，让我认识到许多非常自由思想、很有影响力的人们都开始意识到DEI运动的负面影响。而这种运动与潜在的反犹太主义有所联系，而这种反犹太主义则隐藏在这种压迫者受压迫者意识形态中，这是许多DEI协议的基础。因此，我认为今年DEI运动在一些非常有影响力的人们中受到了严重指责的光照，这种情况在很长时间内并没有普遍发生。因此，我认为这个运动将遭受重大打击，在今年年底已经受到了重大打击，而且我认为它将继续受到捐助者和支持者对这种运动意识形态的质疑。
Okay, Saks, who is your biggest loser in politics for 2023?
好的，萨克斯，谁是你对于2023年政治最失意的人？
My biggest loser in politics for this year is Vladimir Zelensky, the president of Ukraine. And you can see this pretty clearly by just looking at the cover of Time magazine. He began the year, fresh off of winning Time magazine's person of the year. And by the end of the year, the same author at Time magazine was writing a new cover story saying that Zelensky had become delusional, he had become messianic, he was ordering his troops on suicide missions, and his own inner circle had turned on him. And of course, who could forget that other photo from the middle of the year at Vilnius, when all those Euro snobs turned their back on Zelensky. That was a brutal image that went viral on social media, literally the European elite turning their backs on a frustrated Zelensky. Sadly Zelensky had the opportunity in April of 2022 to make a sign a peace deal. And unfortunately, he took Boris Johnson and Joe Biden's advice to pressure Putin rather than make peace. And I think that gamble has turned into a disaster for him.
今年在政治方面最大的失败者是乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基。通过看一下《时代》杂志的封面，这一点就非常清楚了。一开始，他新鲜出炉，刚刚赢得《时代》杂志的年度人物。但到年底，同一位《时代》杂志的作者撰写了一篇新的封面故事，称泽连斯基变得妄想，变得救世主情结严重，他要求部下进行自杀式任务，他的亲信圈也对他背离。当然，谁能忘记今年年中在维尔纽斯发生的那个照片，当所有那些欧洲势力的傲慢者转过身背上泽连斯基的时候。那张残酷的照片在社交媒体上迅速传播，字面上描绘了欧洲精英对一个失望的泽连斯基的背弃。令人遗憾的是，泽连斯基在2022年4月有机会签署一项和平协议。不幸的是，他听从了鲍里斯·约翰逊和乔·拜登的建议，选择施压普京而不是寻求和平。我认为这个赌注对他来说变成了一场灾难。
Chmoth, your biggest political loser in 2023?
Chmoth，在2023年你最大的政治失败者吗？
I had a different choice, but I think, hmm, game time change? Yeah, hearing David has convinced me, I will go with the death of the acronyms. It was close for me between that. And I actually think that Joe Biden, unfortunately, had a very difficult run of it in 2023. When you actually think about it, the Ukraine thing was a fiasco. All of this stuff around maybe putting the hand on the scale, whether it's on Elon or against Donald Trump. It's all just very messy, I think, for him. But I do think that Freeberg is right. This is probably the beginning of the end of the acronyms. And if you look at ESG and DEI together, ESG is a little bit more measurable, but sustainable asset ownership and ESG ownership across the world, shrank by 15%, which you may say, is that a big number or not? That's $5 trillion. So where the money goes typically, so goes everything else in modern society. And so when the money starts to scurry, I think that you can pretty much expect that people's patience and support of these kinds of movements are waning. I'll go with death of the acronyms. Start of the biggest political system.
我原本有一个不同的选择，但我想，嗯，游戏时间改变了？是的，听到David的话让我相信了，我会选择不再使用缩写词。对我来说，这真是一个艰难的抉择。我实际上认为，Joe Biden在2023年确实经历了很艰难的一段时间。当你仔细考虑一下，乌克兰事件真是一场灾难。所有这些围绕着是否支持Elon或反对唐纳德·特朗普的事情都非常混乱，我认为对他来说真的很困难。但我确实认为弗里伯格是对的，这可能是缩写词的终结的开始。如果你把ESG和DEI放在一起看，ESG的可持续资产拥有和全球ESG拥有率都下降了15%，你可能会说，这是一个大数字还是小数字？那是5万亿美元。通常情况下，钱去哪里，其他现代社会的一切也会跟着走。当资金开始离开时，我认为你可以相当确定人们对这些运动的耐心和支持正在减少。我选择不再使用缩写词。开始最大的政治体系。
So you started, you were going to say Biden, but you changed it in real time, and you went DEI ESG acronyms. HACRINIMS, yeah. Okay. Death of the acronyms. You know, I had a lot of talks with folks about this one. People had a lot of input. Some people said DeSantis, some people said Biden. I think the biggest 2023 loser in politics is the American people who are now faced with a Biden Trump rematch, both of those individuals, clearly being in different stages of decline, being over 80. And the GOP just can't quit Trump. And it seems like the Democrats can't quit Biden despite 70, 80% of the country not wanting the rematch. So I'm going to give the American people or the biggest political losers are 2023.
所以你刚开始时，你要说的是拜登，但你实时改变了，然后你提到了DEI（多元包容与公平）、ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）的缩写。缩写的死亡，你知道吗？对于这个问题，我和许多人进行了很多讨论。有些人说是德桑蒂斯（美国佛罗里达州州长），有些人说是拜登。我认为2023年政治舞台上最大的输家是美国人民，他们现在面临着拜登和特朗普的再次对决，而这两个人显然都已进入衰落阶段，年龄都超过了80岁。共和党似乎无法摆脱特朗普的影响，而民主党似乎无法摆脱拜登，尽管70%至80%的国民不希望看到这种再战。所以我认为最大的政治输家是2023年的美国人民。
All right. Here we go. Biggest political surprise. This is the biggest political surprise of 2023.
好的，我们开始吧。最大的政治意外。这是2023年最大的政治意外。
SACS. What's your biggest political surprise?
SACS，你最大的政治意外是什么？
Well, I think the biggest political surprise, and it was a very negative one, was the Hamas attack on Israel on the morning of October 7th, which really seemed to come out of nowhere. Only eight days before Jake Sullivan, whose Biden's national security advisor had declared that the Middle East had been quieter than it had been in two decades.
嗯，我认为最大的政治意外，而且是非常令人失望的一个，就是哈马斯于十月七日早上对以色列发起的袭击，它似乎突如其来，让人大为惊讶。而就在八天之前，拜登的国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文曾经宣称中东的局势比过去二十年要平静。
And those words obviously proved very old time, but he wasn't alone in thinking that I think almost everybody was really surprised by this attack. I think until then, the Middle East seemed to be on a path of progress with the Abraham Accords being negotiated between Israel and several Gulf monarchies. And I think that October 7th has really changed the political paradigm, certainly in Israel, in the Middle East, and I think even in American politics.
这些话显然证明了一个非常久远的时期，但他并不是唯一一个这样想的人，我认为几乎每个人都对这次袭击感到非常惊讶。在那之前，我认为中东似乎正在走向进步，以色列和几个海湾君主国正在协商亚伯拉罕协议。我认为10月7日真的改变了政治范式，尤其是在以色列、中东地区，甚至在美国政治中也是如此。
Okay. Free break is a little bit of a nuance take on that, but I said the rise of Hamas was the biggest political surprise. Hamas is a self-proclaimed political party that was thrust to the center of geopolitics and domestic social issues across the West after October 7th, which was, I think probably a surprise to many that planned these attacks as well.
好的。"自由休息"对此有点微妙的理解，但我说哈马斯的崛起是最大的政治意外。哈马斯是一个自称的政党，在10月7日后成为地缘政治和国内社会问题的焦点，这对许多计划这些袭击的人来说可能也是个惊喜。
Basically, it feels to me like Hamas is the pawn that crossed the chessboard and became a queen. It's an organization that had resourcing and was influenced by many have shown connections to Iran and other wealthy states and had very low attention levels prior to October 7th on a global basis and post October 7th now has recognition and sympathy and a great deal of interest in the root cause of their party. So really incredible surprise. I don't think anyone could have predicted this at the start of the year that not just the attacks happened, but the resulting shift in the discourse and influence that's happened.
基本上，我觉得哈马斯就像是一个穿过国际舞台的棋子，然后变成了皇后。这个组织在资源上得到了支持，并受到了许多与伊朗和其他富裕国家有关系的人的影响。在10月7日之前，它在全球范围内几乎没有引起多少注意，但在10月7日之后，它获得了认可、同情，并引起了对他们政党根源的极大兴趣。所以这真的是非常惊人的意外。我不认为在今年年初任何人都能预测到这种情况，不仅仅是恐怖袭击发生了，而且言论和影响力也发生了相应的转变。
Chamath, biggest political surprise of 2023. I'm going to go with a domestic choice and I think it's quite obvious, but the biggest political surprises are of Kennedy, Robert of Kennedy Jr. I don't think anybody would have predicted that he would both drop out of the Democratic Party, run as an independent and essentially collect. He is in terms of favorability in the polls. He's the leading 2024 candidate right now. It's incredible. People like him. That's for sure. And nobody would have predicted it. That's a really good one.
恰玛斯（Chamath），2023年最大的政治意外。我选择了一个国内的人选，我认为这相当明显，但最大的政治意外是肯尼迪家族的罗伯特·肯尼迪（Jr.）。我认为没有人会预测到他会退出民主党，以独立身份参选，并且在民调中取得如此高的支持率。目前他是2024年的领先候选人，这太不可思议了。人们喜欢他，这是肯定的。没有人会预测到这一点。这真是一个很棒的意外。
What do we think he will get if he runs as an independent, just percentage wise, Ross Perot as a third party candidate to get 19%. You think better than 19% because the country is much more fragmented today. There's a lot more protest votes today. There's just a lot of reasons where RFK can garner a lot of support and build a plurality among centrists. That wasn't possible when Perot was running because when he ran, you have to remember, the country was in a very different place psychologically than it is right now.
如果他作为一个独立候选人参选，我们认为他能得到什么结果呢？纯粹从百分比上来说，像罗斯·佩洛特这样的第三方候选人获得了19%的支持率。你认为他能超过19%吗？因为今天的国家分裂得更严重。现在有更多的抗议选票。有很多原因使得RFK能够赢得广泛支持并在中间派中建立多数派。这在佩洛特竞选时是不可能的，因为当他竞选的时候，你必须记住，国家在心理上和现在有很大的不同。
I too had third party candidates as being my biggest surprise. I didn't give it to a specific one. I was debating these third party candidates against the GOP not being able to feel the better option than Trump. But I think I'm going to go again with third party candidates. But I'll include Dean Phillips in that breaking ranks. I'll include Vivek, just a very young, very smart individual capturing people's imagination. Third party candidates, for me, is the biggest surprise. And I do think it could have a meaningful impact.
我也将第三方候选人看作是最令我感到意外的。我没有针对特定候选人进行讨论。我一直在和共和党人辩论，无法找到比特朗普更好的选择。但我认为我可能还是会支持第三方候选人。不过我会包括迪恩·菲利普斯在内，他背离方向。我还会包括维韦克，他是一个非常年轻、非常聪明，能够激发人们想象力的个人。对我来说，第三方候选人是最令人惊讶的。我确实认为它可能会产生有意义的影响。
If you're right, that he gets over 19%. Who does that? Chemoth in your mind? Who does that benefit? And who does it hurt if the candidates are Biden and Trump? It hurts by the most. You believe that? Okay. What about you, Sacks? Who do you think it hurts the most? Unclear right now. I mean, I think on the issues, I can see a lot of populist voters wanting to go with RFK. But on the other hand, maybe he does peel away some Democratic party voters. So I'm not sure to be honest.
如果你说得对，那他的得票率超过19%。这是谁的作为呢？你脑海中是谁呢？这对谁有利？如果候选人是拜登和特朗普，这对谁有害？伤害最大的应该是谁。你相信吗？好吧。萨克斯，你怎么看？你认为最受伤害的是谁？现在还不清楚。我是说，就议题而言，我能看出有很多平民主义选民倾向于支持RFK。但另一方面，也许他确实能够吸引一些民主党选民。所以说实话，我不确定。
I've heard this before. Any thoughts free burn on that? What's the question? If RFK were to get as Chima thinks more than perot, so that's 20% or more of the popular vote, who is that going to harm? And who's it going to hurt? Trump or Biden? I saw a Gallup survey that showed that there's a real shot at more than 40% of Americans being interested in the third party. And so I'm sorry, I could be totally wrong on that. But I'm pretty sure I saw that. And it really kind of resonated with me. And I think our discourse here and, you know, obviously conversations with our friend group, Nick might have something on this support for third US political party up to 63%. This is the Gallup data. Yeah. So I was right.
我之前听过这个。对此有什么自由燃烧的想法吗？问题是什么？如果RFK能够获得比佩罗更多的支持，也就是百分之二十或更多的选民支持率，那会对谁造成伤害？会伤害到特朗普还是拜登？我看到盖洛普的一项调查显示，有超过40%的美国人对第三党感兴趣。对此我很抱歉，或许我记得错了，但我相当确定我看到过这个数据。这对我来说产生了共鸣。我觉得我们在这里的对话，还有和我们的朋友圈之间的交流，尼克可能会对第三个美国政党的支持有一些见解，达到了63%。这是盖洛普的数据。是的，我是对的。
I think that this is one of the most kind of profound shifts in American politics, at least in our lifetimes, that the right has gone very right. The left has gone very left. And they've been so rooted in identity politics that you can't really see any of these issues kind of finding compromise and finding a way to lean across the aisle and get things done. And I think that's where a lot of people are just fed up. So I would love to see a third political party emerge. And if RFK breaks the dam on this, it would be fantastic. It will take, as these things always do, a number of years for a group of independents to coalesce around what that third party looks like, and how it's going to be governed, and so on. But this could be a really interesting shift in the dynamics of American politics. So pretty cool. I'm not into politics in the US that much, but pretty cool.
我认为这是美国政治中最具有深远意义的之一，在我们的一生当中，右派变得极端右倾，而左派则变得极端左倾。他们在民族政治上根深蒂固，以至于你几乎看不到任何这些问题能够寻求妥协，并找到跨越党派的方式来实现目标。我认为这正是许多人感到厌倦的地方。因此，我希望看到第三个政治党派出现。如果肯尼迪能在这方面开创局面，那将是太棒了。像这样的事情总是需要几年时间，让一群独立的人团结起来，并商讨出第三个政党的形象以及如何进行治理，等等。但这可能是美国政治动态的一个非常有意思的转变。所以非常酷。虽然我对美国的政治并不那么了解，但还是很酷。
I think opportunity to reframe, you know, how do we want to build America going forward and thinking about using a new party as a way to do that? And we haven't even heard of no labels, the third party platform, they're probably going to announce Joe Manchin any day now. And so that could change things as well. So that's a very interesting take.
我认为有机会重新构建美国的机会，你知道的，我们想以何种方式建设美国，并考虑使用一个新政党来实现这一点。而且我们甚至还没有听说过无党派、第三方平台，他们很可能很快就会宣布支持乔·曼钦。所以这可能会改变情况。这确实是一个非常有趣的观点。
Biggest problem that we have, this may sound really dumb, but I think it's true in launching a third party is a viable name. I think it's the most important boundary condition to have a sustainable third party is a good name. Like an iconic person. The chair notes party. Like whatever we call this party, the name of the party, not the person they feel. No labels is a terrible name. That's a terrible name. The chair notes party is pretty terrible. The party is terrible. The party party is terrible. The party, freedom party, they're all terrible because they all feel like they're rooted in some, you know, either conservative or liberal cause. There's got to be some element of like, what's the right decision on each, on each topic, not necessarily, you know, how do we fight the identity politics? I think that's the key piece that's missing. I like the rational party, like a party of rational individuals. Disparaging to a degree, you know. Yeah. It's branding. Branding. So what would you call it? The third party Republicans. People's Republic of. Saxon. So Mark, do you have an idea for a name? I'm not going to comment on this.
我们面临的最大问题，听起来可能很愚蠢，但我认为它是真实的，就是推出第三党需要一个有生命力的名字。我认为一个可持续的第三党最重要的边界条件是一个好的名字，就像一个标志性的人物。主席记录党。不管我们怎么称呼这个党派，党的名字，而不是人的感觉。没有标签是一个糟糕的名字。那是一个糟糕的名字。主席注意党是相当糟糕的。这个党是糟糕的。党党是糟糕的。自由党，它们都很糟糕，因为它们似乎都根植于某种保守或自由主义事业。必须有某种元素，比如在每个问题上都作出正确的决定，而不是我们如何对抗身份政治。我认为这是缺失的关键。我喜欢理性党，就像一个理性的个体的党派。在某种程度上是贬低，你知道。嗯，这是品牌。品牌。那你会叫它什么名字呢？共和党第三党。人民共和国。萨克森。所以马克，你有一个名字的主意吗？对此我不愿评论。
Something brewing.
有什么事情正在酝酿中。
Would you have a name for a third party? You like the rational party.
你有没有对第三方有个名字？你喜欢理性党。
The rational party or something like that where it kind of evoked. You know, people who are being thoughtful and we're trying to make rational decisions in everybody's best interests, right? Something that was not about us versus them, abortion or, you know, DEI or ESG, just something focused more on getting things done. They're getting things done in party. Something like that. Getting things done, party. So it's better on the nose, but better than the deranged one party. Yeah.
合理党或类似的那种，它有点唤起了一种感觉。你知道的，那些思考问题并试图做出符合每个人最大利益的理性决策的人，对吧？不是关于我们和他们之间的问题，也不是关于堕胎、多元包容性或环境、社会和公司治理等议题，而是更关注于完成任务的事情。在这个党派中完成任务。类似这样的。完成任务的党派。所以这个名称很直接，但比疯狂的一党制要好。是的。
Absolutely.
当然可以。
All right. Let's keep going. That's keep going.
好的，请继续前进。继续前进吧。
Here we go. Oh, man. Is there a try to derail this show? I want that in catch with something. All right. It's time for our biggest business winner. Biggest winner in business. Who you got, Jamal? Who's your biggest winner in business? I mean, I don't think this is even close, but I think it's Elon Musk. Oh, huh? Three things, obviously, three different companies, but the rebasing of Twitter actually had an even more profound impact, I think, on Silicon Valley that it necessarily did on Twitter. Second was, I think SpaceX has really turned a corner. Starlink is really at scale. Starship looks like it's viable. And then the third is Tesla really consolidated its leadership in EVs and batteries and battery technology and FSD. So I think on the merits, it was not even close.
我们开始吧。哦，天哪。会有人试图破坏这个节目吗？我希望能抓住一些东西。好吧。现在是我们最大的商业赢家的时间。在商业上最大的赢家是谁？Jamal，你认为在商业上谁是最大的赢家？我的意思是，我觉得这一点都不难猜，但我认为是埃隆·马斯克。哦，嗯？有三件事，显然是三个不同的公司，但Twitter的再评估对硅谷的影响比对Twitter本身的影响更深远。其次，我认为SpaceX真的有所突破。Starlink正在逐渐扩大规模，星际飞船看起来是可行的。然后是特斯拉在电动汽车、电池和电池技术以及全自动驾驶方面巩固了领导地位。所以，我认为从价值上来看，这一点都不难看出。
Okay, Saks, who you got? Who's your biggest business winner? The Magnificent Seven. These are the seven companies that accounted for almost all of the stock market gains this year. You can see it in this chart. It's about a 63% gap between the performance of the top names, top seven names in the S&P 500 and then the other 493 of them. I think that the S&P 493 had a 12% gain this year, which isn't bad, but it was dwarfed by the Magnificent Seven, which was almost 80%. Incredible.
好的，萨克斯，你们选了谁？谁是你们最大的商业赢家？真正的七巨头。这是今年几乎所有股市收益的七家公司。你可以在这个图表中看到。标普500指数的前七家公司和其他剩下的493家公司之间的表现存在大约63%的差距。我想S&P 500指数的其他493家公司今年有12%的增长，虽然也不错，但与七巨头的近80%的增长相比就相形见绌了。令人难以置信。
All right, Saks says the M7, Freeburg, who you got? Yeah, I'm going to pick one of the seven, which is Microsoft, just a shot down the middle of the fairway here, despite only seeing, I think, roughly 8% top line growth, the business saw its market cap grow by over a trillion dollars, 1.7 to 2.7 trillion this year. Just an incredible number. I mean, can you imagine if we ever said that 10 years ago, whether anyone would believe it? Consumer enterprise strength and strategic strength, the fact that they were able to close the activation acquisition in the regulatory environment. And then the strength that Saks showed and the speed at which he acted during the OpenAI weekend debacle, where he set up this whole thing, where he got Sam on board and was going to retain all this value that he was extracting from OpenAI and partnership was, I think, great leadership and cemented his position and standing as being a really thoughtful, fast acting strategic leader for a business that's been around forever, but amazingly added a trillion of market cap in 12 months. So I just throw it to Microsoft this year. It's very hard to kind of break that business apart and say, here's all the things that are wrong with it. It's just, you know, it's just moving.
好的，Saks说M7，Freeburg，你觉得怎么样？是的，我要选七个中的一个，就是微软，就像球道中间的一杆，尽管我只看到大约8%的销售额增长，但该公司的市值今年增长了一万亿美元，从1.7万亿增加到2.7万亿。这个数字太令人难以置信了。你能想象10年前我们是否曾经说过这样的话，有人会相信吗？消费者和企业的实力以及战略实力，以及他们在监管环境中成功完成收购，并展示出来的实力，以及在OpenAI周末事件中他表现出的速度，他设立了整个计划，并让Sam加入，并从OpenAI中获得了价值，并建立了自己作为一个非常深思熟虑、快速行动的战略领导者的地位。这个企业已经存在了很久，但在12个月内市值竟然增加了一万亿美元。所以我对微软今年非常看好。很难将这个企业拆分开来，并说出所有的问题所在。它只是在不断发展。
All right, very well done. We got Elon Musk. Did you work there for a while? One year. Twitter? No, Microsoft. Microsoft. One year. I was actually, no, I was locked up for two years in the wake of the Yammer deal. Yeah, I was a corporate vice president at Microsoft. Do you like it? Yeah, it was, I mean, it's a high quality company for sure. Yeah. I mean, I was like super active for one year because I was still in charge of, I still had a P&L running Yammer, but then after one year, Yammer was sort of assimilated into the Borg and I didn't have anything to do. That was kind of just like on call. Right. Right.
好的，非常出色。我们得到了埃隆·马斯克。你在那工作了一段时间吗？一年。推特吗？不，在微软工作。微软。一年。实际上，不，我在亚玛交易之后被困了两年。是的，我在微软是一位企业副总裁。你喜欢它吗？是的，它是一家高质量的公司。是的。我在第一年非常活跃，因为我仍然负责亚玛的盈亏表，但是在一年之后，亚玛被吸收进了微软，我没有其他事情可做了。那时候我只是待命。是的。是的。
All right. I am going to talk my own book on this one and give it to Dara and the team at Uber. They got into the S&P 500, became profitable, planning stock buybacks. They resolved almost all of the regulatory reserve issues, including getting the taxis in London to be on the app, which was their big adversary and they were going to get kicked out of London. If you remember, this is a company that five years ago, the press and the fake news were saying could never be profitable and was going to fail. And now it is the most successful new startup in the last cycle, bigger than everybody. And so congratulations to the team over there.
好吧，我要自夸一下，并且把我这本书交给Uber的Dara和团队。他们成功进入了标准普尔500指数，实现了盈利，还计划进行股票回购。他们几乎解决了所有监管准备问题，包括让伦敦的出租车接入了他们的应用程序，而这是他们最大的对手，他们曾经面临被伦敦开除的危险。如果你还记得的话，五年前媒体和假新闻都说这家公司永远无法盈利，会破产。而现在它是过去一周期内最成功的新创公司，比任何其他公司都要大。所以向那边的团队表示祝贺。
All right. Biggest loser in business, the biggest loser. It's 20, 23. Freeberg, just so you know, last year, your prediction was capital intensive series, B, Cs and Ds of growth companies. Well done on that prediction. But give me Freeberg, your actual, who was your biggest loser in 2023? Hosts Sultan of science. It's sort of tied up, obviously, does a tale to the effect, but it's VCs who deployed most of their capital in 2021. Obviously, it was the year where a venture capital deployments peaked. And what I've heard from institutional MPs this year is that, you know, not only will that vintage underperform, but it could torpedo as many as 50% of firms that are managing capital today in Silicon Valley. And it could switch the capital allocation model that reduces allocation to venture as an asset class significantly because of the torpedo that the 2021 vintage represents in performance. So that was my biggest loser for the year. Good for me and Saks, because we were diligent during that time.
好吧。商界最大的失败者，最大的失败者。是2023年。弗里伯格，让你知道一下，去年你预测了资本密集型系列，B、C和D的成长公司。这个预测做得不错。但是告诉我，弗里伯格，你在2023年的最大失败者是谁？主持人科学之王。显然，这与很多事情有关，但在2021年投入最多资金的风险投资公司似乎承担了这个责任。显然，这是风险投资部署达到峰值的一年。我今年从机构投资者那里听说的是，不仅这一批基金表现不佳，而且可能会导致管理资金的50%的公司在硅谷出问题。同时，这可能会改变资本分派模式，显著减少对风险投资作为一种资产类别的分配，因为2021年批次的表现就像鱼雷一样致命。所以这是我今年的最大失败者。对我和Saks来说很好，因为我们在那个时候很谨慎。
All right. Let's go to you, Saks.
Is your biggest loser in business in 2023? My biggest business loser is Disney. It seems that every aspect of Disney's business is the bed in 2023. I mean, all their majors, the actual releases flopped and missed a conservative backlash against its woke social stances. You may recall that the actress who played Snow White in the remake accused Prince Charming of being a stalker. I mean, there's a million examples. Even their, their Marvel franchise suddenly had bombs. They had to fire Jonathan Majors, who was doing a fantastic job playing Kang and an entire franchise arc that they're going to have to reset now because of a criminal conviction involving him.
好的。我们去你那里，Saks。
你在2023年的最大商业失败者是谁？我的最大商业失败者是迪士尼。似乎迪士尼的所有业务方面在2023年都遭受了磨折。我的意思是，他们的所有重点项目、实际上的发布都以失败告终，并因其觉醒社会立场引起了保守派的反弹。你可能还记得，在《白雪公主》重新拍摄版中，扮演白雪公主的女演员指责王子是一个跟踪者。我是说，有成千上万的例子。甚至他们的漫威系列突然间也失败了。他们不得不解雇了乔纳森·梅杰斯，他在扮演康恩角色方面做得非常出色，而整个系列的剧情情节现在因为他的一项刑事定罪而不得不重置。
Disney Plus subscriptions fell off a cliff, even attendance at its theme parks declined dramatically because they charged way too much for families to visit. And then finally, Bob Iger picked a fight with Elon Musk over advertising. Remember, Elon probably told Iger to G.F.Y. Good for you.
迪士尼加的订阅数量急剧下降，甚至其主题公园的参观人数也大幅下降，原因是他们对家庭参观收费过高。最后，鲍勃·艾格尔因为广告问题与埃隆·马斯克发生了争执。记住，埃隆很可能让艾格尔滚蛋。祝你好运。
Yeah. Yeah. And tens of thousands of Disney Plus subscribers canceled their subscriptions because of that. And it all makes you wonder if Iger now wishes he had stayed retired.
是的。是的。因为这个原因，成千上万的迪士尼加用户取消了他们的订阅，所有这些让你想知道伊格尔是否后悔重新工作。
I too picked Disney. I put Disney Warner Brothers. Both of them had their comic book franchises collapsed simultaneously on the on the Warner Brothers side and the DC side, the Flash and Justice League. Everything came apart. Streaming was too expensive. And you didn't mention these horrific strikes that they had to deal with. And it feels like they had to give a ton of concessions.
我也选择了迪士尼。我在迪士尼和华纳兄弟两边都加入了他们的动漫系列，但这两家公司的漫画系列，如《闪电侠》和《正义联盟》，几乎同时面临了崩溃。一切都四分五裂了。流媒体价格太贵了。而你没有提到他们所面临的可怕罢工。感觉他们必须做出很多让步。
So Disney was my biggest loser as well with Warner Brothers as their little brother, the Archimoth. We have a consensus there. Rare consensus between Saxon and I.
所以迪士尼是我最大的失败者，而华纳兄弟则是他们的小弟弟，就像阿奇茉斯一样。我们在这一点上达成了共识。我和Saxon之间很少有共识。
What did you have for your biggest loser in business? Well, you guys partially win. Okay. Because I'm going to have to agree with you guys. But I think the biggest loser in business was the GoWoke community who tried to synthetically and artificially use all these social movements as a way to drive revenue and just got totally burned. So Disney, Bud, Target. And I think the statement from consumers is, look, just sell a product, stay in your lane, make a better and better product for us at lower and lower prices. And otherwise, just let the politicians and the voters decide social issues. And I think that was pretty clear.
你们在商业中最大的失败是什么？嗯，你们部分地取得了胜利。好吧，因为我得同意你们的观点。但我认为商界中最大的失败者是那些试图人为地利用所有的社会运动来推动收入增长的“觉醒社群”，他们完全被烧伤了。所以，迪士尼、百威、塔吉特等公司。而消费者们的观点是，看，就卖产品好了，各自专注做出更好、更低价的产品给我们。其他社会议题还是由政治家和选民来决定吧。我觉得这非常清楚。
All right. There you have it, folks. If you're going to make Bud Light, people just want to drink the damn beer. They're not interested in your politics.
好的。这就是事实，朋友们。如果你要制造百威轻啤酒，人们只想喝该死的啤酒。他们对你的政治立场不感兴趣。
All right. Here we go. Biggest business surprise of 2023. Who do you got, Sax? Who is your biggest business surprise of 2023? I think it was the Fed's bank term funding program or BTFP in response to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the regional banking crisis. As you may recall, it wasn't just SVB. There were several old dominoes in the regional banking system that fell. It was SVB, signature, first republic. And even in Europe, credit Suisse basically fell apart all because of the sudden spiking interest rates. A lot of people tried to blame VCs for this, J-Cal. Yeah. Even when me took some heat. The truth is that if the dominoes had fallen in a slightly different order, no one would have thought to blame VCs for this. It was obviously the fact that rates had spiked up and these banks got caught off sides because their deposit base is volatile and they had loaded up on government bonds at a 1% interest and then the value of those bonds plummeted.
好了，我们开始吧。2023年最大的商业惊喜是什么？萨克斯，你觉得是谁？你认为2023年最大的商业惊喜是美联储的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），是对硅谷银行和地区银行危机的回应。正如你可能还记得的，不仅仅是硅谷银行，地区银行系统中还有几家老牌银行相继倒闭。有硅谷银行、签名银行、第一共和银行等。甚至在欧洲，瑞士信贷银行也几乎瓦解，所有这些都是因为突然上涨的利率。很多人试图把责任归咎于风投公司，包括我在内都受到了一些指责。事实上，如果这些银行的倒闭次序稍有不同，没有人会想到归咎于风投公司。显然，是因为利率飙升，这些银行处于劣势位置，他们的存款基础不稳定，而且他们把大量的政府债券以1%的利率购买，这些债券的价值随后暴跌。
The Fed then stepped in to prevent this from turning into a contagion. That was where the BTFP came in and I'm ambivalent about it because I think that we don't know the long-term consequences of the Fed basically providing this liquidity to the banking system. However, it's very clear to me that there was a regional banking crisis underway and the Fed stepping in, I think probably saved us from having a recession this year. Amazing.
然后美联储介入阻止这种情况蔓延开来。这就是BTFP出台的原因，对于此我持矛盾态度，因为我认为我们并不清楚美联储向银行体系提供流动性的长期后果。然而，对我来说很明显，地区银行业危机正在发生，而美联储的介入，恐怕是今年避免了经济衰退。令人惊讶。
So the Fed there, I picked Facebook for my biggest surprise this year. They changed the name of the company to New York City Code to meta. They were pouring tens of billions of dollars into VR, which nobody wanted to use. The CEO was focused on the wrong thing, but they turned it around. The stock dropped to 90 and Zuckerberg, I guess, didn't want to lose. And so he laid off tens of thousands of employees, said no more middle managers. Everybody's got to get to work. And they doubled down on their existing businesses and they've made some great progress on AI. So my biggest business surprise was the resurgence of Zuckerberg and Facebook.
那么，美联储在那里，我选择Facebook作为我今年最大的惊喜。他们将公司改名为纽约市据点，也就是元。他们投入了数百亿美元用于虚拟现实技术，但没有人想使用。首席执行官关注的是错误的东西，但他们最终改变了局面。股价下跌到90美元，我猜，扎克伯格不愿输。于是他解雇了成千上万的员工，不再招聘中间管理者。每个人都必须去工作。他们加大了对现有业务的投入，并在人工智能方面取得了一些重大进展。所以我最大的商业意外是扎克伯格和Facebook的复兴。
Chamath, who did you have for your biggest business surprise? I'll pick Jay Powell and the Fed capitulation. I think that I've been saying for a while that rates will be higher for longer for quite a while now.
Chamath，你对最让你意外的商业人物是谁？我会选杰伊·鲍威尔和美联储的屈服。我认为我已经一段时间说过利率将保持较高水平的时间会相对较长。
And I was really surprised when Jay Powell had this press conference in December, in early December, and just basically capitulated and just said, you know what, guys, we're going to be cutting probably three times next year. That was effectively the gist of what he said.
当杰伊·鲍威尔在12月初举行新闻发布会时，我非常惊讶。他基本上屈服了，并表示：“你们知道吗，伙计们，明年我们可能会削减三次利率。”这大致是他所说的意思。
And immediately the 10 year basically just completely changed course. And it went from almost at 5% to below 4% within a matter of two and a half or three weeks. And then the stock market has basically done nothing but goes straight up. That's a huge surprise to me because I think now what the setup is for 2024 is basically we will melt up up until the first cut. And then there'll probably be some real selling. And I would not have predicted that.
随后，十年期国债的走势发生了翻天覆地的变化。在短短两周半到三周的时间内，利率从接近5%降至低于4%。与此同时，股市基本上一直在上升。这对我来说是一个巨大的意外，因为我认为，到2024年，我们的市场将会一路上涨，直至第一轮降息。然后可能会出现一些真正的抛售。这一点我之前没有预料到。
The markets have become a lot more accommodative as a result. I didn't expect that. So Jay Powell really, I think, surprised a lot of us. He could have been more tempered, but he essentially decided to give away the playbook in the last month of the year here.
市场变得更加包容了。我没想到会这样。所以杰伊·鲍威尔真的给我们很多人带来了惊喜。他本来可以更加克制，但实际上他在年底的最后一个月决定给出方针。
And it's important for everybody to understand the Fed acts independently of the administration. It's just a coincidence, correct, SACs, that their cuts are going to come just in time for Biden economics. And if it happens to go up in the next nine months, that has nothing to do with the Biden administration. Who might benefit from that if the economy was back?
重要的是每个人都要明白美联储是独立于政府行事的。他们的降息恰巧会在拜登经济政策实施之时进行，这只是巧合，并无关联。假如接下来九个月经济状况有所好转，那也与拜登政府毫无关系。那样的话，谁会从经济复苏中受益呢？
Jason, Nick, I have a quote that I sent Nick. This was what Larry Summers said. And I just think it's such an unbelievable quote that is just worth internalizing if you just start reading here.
Jason，Nick，我有一句我发给Nick的引语。这是Larry Summers说的。我只是觉得这句话太难以置信了，如果你刚刚开始阅读这里，它绝对值得深思。
So I prefer the Volcker Greenspan approach, which is to recognize that the Fed is a little bit like the Delphic oracles. People regarded them as omniscient and omnipotent, but they were in fact neither. So the oracles kept their pronouncements vague and oracular, not concrete and specific, because it was impossible to be concrete and specific without being wrong frequently and undercut.
所以我更喜欢沃尔克（Volcker）和格林斯潘（Greenspan）的做法，他们认识到美联储有点像德尔斐神谕一样。人们把他们视为全知全能的存在，但事实上他们既不全知也不全能。因此，神谕会保持他们的预言模糊和神秘，而非具体和明确，因为具体和明确常常会错误和削弱他们的信誉。
Incredibly, I mean, that is just the perfect general. Yeah. Keep it summary of what probably should have happened in these pressures. And this was an example where it was the exact opposite and the market just took it and said, I'm off to the races.
令人难以置信的是，我是说，那简直是完美的总结。是的，在这些压力下，应该发生的事情被概括得很好。而这个例子正好相反，市场却接受了它，并表示“我准备好了，开始竞赛吧”。
Just to agree with that and buttress it. It's not only the fact that they gave this kind of this year, as you remember, back when we started having inflation, the Fed still stuck to the story that it would not be raising rates for some extended period of time.
只是为了同意并强调这一点。不仅仅是因为他们在今年提出了这样的主张，正如你记得的那样，当我们开始出现通胀时，美联储仍然坚持它不会在相当长的一段时间内加息的说法。
And a lot of these banks that had problems basically, because they bought too many long-term government bonds, a lot of those bonds were bought during that period when the Fed was assuring and it wasn't going to be jacking up rates. So if the Fed hadn't misled them, maybe they would have made better risk decisions. Yeah. So it works both ways.
很多遇到问题的银行主要是因为购买了过多的长期政府债券，其中很多是在美联储明确表示不会提高利率的时期购买的。因此，如果美联储没有误导它们，也许它们就能做出更好的风险决策。是的，这种情况是双向的。
Freeburg, got a business surprise for 2023 for the audience here at the Bestie Awards. The biggest surprise was Sam Altman's Alster in return all in a weekend. So that was kind of crazy. So I just give it to that. Nothing else to be said. Okay. The flip flop. Love it. Okay. Best science breakthrough.
在这里为Bestie奖观众们带来2023年的一项商业惊喜，Freeburg。最大的惊喜是山姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）在一个周末里以全新状态回归的Alster。所以那真是有些疯狂。所以我只是给出了那个。没什么别的可说的。好吧。令人兴奋。喜欢它。好吧。最佳科学突破。
This is everybody's favorite. Also the time when Saks goes and takes a leak, 2023. Biggest science breakthrough. I'm going. You got Saks. You're awake during the second one. Yeah. What's the biggest science breakthrough for you? Saks. According to NASA, there's a new look at Uranus. That's right, J. That's right, J. Cal. These are never before seen deep penetrating shots of Uranus. How deep and penetrating are these? Very deep, very penetrating from the James Webb Space Telescope.
这是大家最喜欢的。同时也是Saks去小便的时间，2023年。最大的科学突破。我要去参观。你要和Saks在一起。你会在第二个时段醒着。是的。对于你来说，最大的科学突破是什么？Saks。根据NASA的说法，他们对天王星进行了新的探索。没错，J。没错，J. Cal。这些是以前从未见过的深入探测天王星的图像。这些有多深和强烈？非常深入，非常强烈，来自詹姆斯·韦伯太空望远镜。
Freiburg, when your anus gets probed this deeply, what's your takeaway? What's the feeling you get in this deep probing of your anus? Oh, wonder. Mystery. Odd wonder? Yeah. Well, that's a space call inoscopy. Something gets moved with it. Absolutely. I'm going to save you for last free broke.
弗莱堡，当你的肛门受到如此深入的探测时，你有什么感受？在这种深入探测你的肛门的过程中，你有何感受？哦，奇妙。神秘。奇妙得有点奇怪吗？是的。好吧，这就是肛门镜检（insoscopy）。通过它，某种东西被移动了。绝对的。我会把你放在最后处理，自由困境。
Trimoth, you have one? Yeah. I think that this unfortunately did not get nearly the attention. It deserves, but I'm going to pick the CRISPR FDA approved CRISPR treatment of sickle cell anemia. I think that this is just an incredibly important breakthrough. And so sickle cell basically is just a condition where the shape of your red blood cells change. It causes a lot of very painful inflammation and damage. Disproportionally affects the black population, African American population.
Triomth，你有一个吗？是的。我认为这个不幸地没有得到足够的关注，但我将选择CRISPR获得FDA批准的对镰状细胞贫血的治疗。我认为这是一个非常重要的突破。镰状细胞贫血基本上是你的红细胞形状改变的一种情况。它引起很多非常痛苦的炎症和损害。这种情况对黑人种群、非裔美国人种群产生了不成比例的影响。
And so now there's an approved therapy, which goes in and makes the gene edits and fixes these folks. So congratulations to Vertex and CRISPR and I think it's just incredible.
现在已经有一种经过批准的疗法，它能进入体内进行基因编辑，修复这些人的基因。因此，恭喜Vertex和CRISPR，我认为这真是令人难以置信的成就。
There was my big breakthrough was this brain decoder technology. We didn't talk about it here on the show, but this project was crazy. They did MRI scans or F MRI scans of blood flow to different areas in the brain. They then had people listen to podcasts like the moth and they tracked individuals' brain activity with specific words that were said during the podcast and they had them repeat words. Then they attached it to a language model, GPT-1, I believe, and narrowed down what people were thinking. Then they had people think thoughts and it started to use the predictive model of GPT-1 and combined it with what was happening in their brain chemistry. Now this is a far away from being able to read people's minds, but for somebody who couldn't speak, let's say the idea that you could think and then have your thoughts and the story you were telling actually come out of a computer just by thinking would be miraculous. Obviously, Neuralink does this with a direct connection, but fascinating work being done right now.
这个重大突破就是脑解码器技术。我们在节目中没有讨论过这个项目，但它非常疯狂。他们利用MRI扫描或功能性磁共振扫描不同脑区的血液流量。然后让人们听一些播客，比如“飞蛾”，并追踪他们在播客中听到的特定词语所引发的脑活动，要求他们重复这些词语。然后，他们将这些数据与语言模型GPT-1相结合，逐渐缩小人们的思维范围。接下来，他们让人们思考一些事情，并开始将GPT-1的预测模型与他们的脑化学反应结合起来。现在，我们离能够读取人们的思想还相当遥远，但对于某些不能说话的人来说，想象一下只需思考，就能让你的思维和故事通过计算机传达出来是多么神奇。显然，Neuralink利用直接连接实现了这一点，但当前的研究工作也非常有趣。
Sex still thinking about Uranus. He's going deep into Uranus right now. He's reading that paper. I can see it in his eyes. You guys know I got a colonoscopy. Thank goodness. How was it? I got it on. Did they put you under? Tuesday. Yeah, but I didn't get the propofol. I got Demerol. I think Demerol. You got to go probe. I had the twilight sedation. It was great. Don't get me wrong, but it was like 15, 20 minutes. It was not. You were kind of awake and lucid. I woke up halfway through. You woke up halfway through? Did they give you a drink, a little red wine or anything? Nothing? No, it didn't talk to me. I just saw the screen. I was like, what the hell? And then I just went back to the sleep. Let me tell you, propofol, it's drip, drip, drip. And then you wake up four hours later. It's the most stressful sleep you ever had. That's the way to go. No, dude, I had a 50-day time. I had like a 20-minute twilight sedation. That was it. I asked them to go back up in there twice just to make sure. Free break.
性别还在思考天王星。他现在正深入其中。他正在读这篇文章。我可以从他的眼神中看出来。你们知道我做过结肠镜检查。谢天谢地。这个过程怎么样？我在星期二做的。对，但我没有使用丙泊酚，我使用的是度洛西汀。我记得是度洛西汀。你必须要接受探查。我采用了谢尔盖式镇静。感觉很好。别误会，但只用了大约15到20分钟。你有点清醒。我在半夜醒过来了。你半夜醒来了？他们给你喝了点红酒或其他东西吗？什么都没有？没有，他们没有和我说话。我只看到了屏幕，然后再次睡着了。让我告诉你，丙泊酚是滴滴答答，然后四个小时后醒来。是你曾经经历过的最有压力的睡眠。这才是正确的选择。不，伙计，我只用了五十分钟的时间。我要求他们再检查两次，以确保没有问题。请稍作休息。
Enough about your anus. What was your biggest science surprise of 23? I know it's hard to surprise you. I know you guys want to hear some crazy specific thing, but I actually just said that there were too many breakthroughs with machine-learn models with AI this year to list. LLMs that can run on small desktop machines that are open source, that outperform all models that were in existence even a few months prior. It highlights the leaps and bounds of this trajectory of development in models. There's other specific examples like we talked about DeepMind's Graphcast model, which is a graph neural network on the show, and obviously all the generative models in imagery and movies and music. But it's just such an extraordinary time to see us leverage our combined capabilities to drive these extraordinary games. So your surprise is the pace of language models, the pace of AI development? Just all these breakthroughs in aggregate. It's hard to pay attention to any one. There's a constellation of change underway. It's incredible.
够了关于你的肛门的话题。你在23年里最大的科学惊喜是什么？我知道要让你感到惊讶很困难。我知道你们想听一些疯狂而具体的事情，但实际上我只是说今年机器学习和人工智能领域出现了太多突破，难以一一列举。有一种可以运行在小型台式机上的开源LLM，其性能甚至超过了之前数月内存在的所有模型。这凸显了模型发展的巨大进步。还有其他具体的例子，比如我们在节目中讨论的DeepMind的Graphcast模型，它是一个图神经网络，当然还有在图像、电影和音乐领域的所有生成模型。但我们现在正处于一个非常非凡的时刻，我们利用我们的综合能力推动这些非凡的进展。所以你的惊喜是语言模型的速度，人工智能发展的速度吗？所有这些突破的总和。很难将注意力集中在任何一个方面上。正在发生一系列变革，这太不可思议了。
Now it's time for our biggest flash in the pan. Who is your biggest flash in the pan, Trima? Oh my gosh, this is a. Well, it could be business. It could be society. It could be pop culture. I wrote down SBF. I think from what looked like a too good to be wonderkind, frankly, just turned out to be an Adderall-addicted grifter. Saks, I hope that doesn't hit too close to home. Who is yours? Same ballpark. I said effective altruism. The EA movement took a big hit with SBF. I would have thought that'd be enough to polish it off. But then we had the OpenAI board, Oust, Sam Altman, like we talked about. Apparently that was driven by a couple of their non-profit board members who were effective altruists. I think the failure of that whole debacle will put the nail in the coffin of the EA movement.
现在是我们最大的昙花一现的时候了。Trima，你最大的昙花一现是谁？天啊，这是一个。嗯，可以是商业，可以是社会，可以是流行文化。我写下了SBF。我认为，从一开始看起来像是个不可思议的奇才，实际上最后只是一个对阿得拉尔上了瘾的骗子。Saks，希望这不会太贴近你的心。你的呢？差不多。我说的是有效利他主义。EA运动在SBF的重创下遭受了重大打击。我本以为那足以把它击垮了。但后来我们有了OpenAI董事会，解雇了Sam Altman，就像我们谈过的那样。显然，这是由几位他们的非盈利机构董事会成员所推动的，他们是有效利他主义者。我认为这整个事件的失败将给有效利他主义运动画上句号。
Okay, Freiburg, you got a flash in the pan for 23. The obvious breakthrough in superconducting room temperature material, LK99. It came and it went. Everyone thought it was going to change the world. A couple of weeks later couldn't be replicated, was disproven ultimately. For a hot minute there, everyone thought the world was going to change. It was super exciting to see room temperature, superconductivity in the search for room temperature, superconducting materials get so much attention. As I mentioned, it's something I've thought a lot about since I was 13 years old. It's super cool, but didn't happen. Came and it went.
好的，弗赖堡，你们在23号获得了一个昙花一现的突破，超导室温材料LK99。它来了又走了。每个人都以为它会改变世界。几周后，它无法重复，最终被证明是错误的。在那短暂的一刻里，每个人都以为世界会改变。看到寻找室温超导材料如此受关注，感觉很激动。如我所说，这是我从13岁起就一直思考的问题。虽然很酷，但并没有发生。来了又走。
I went with a wildcard here. I said George Santos, the diva, drama queen and congressman who slayed from 2023 to 2023. Electric campaign funds to buy, get both Botox. He asked Queen and Sephora. My bad. Ask Queen, just making bank over at Cameo. I'm going to have him come in. He's going to do a quick cameo here on all in podcasts.
我在这里选择了一个与众不同的人。我说乔治·桑托斯，这位2023年至2023年间大放异彩的吵吵闹闹的国会议员。他用竞选经费购买电动物资，同时也进行了保搐杆治疗。他向女王和丝芙兰寻求帮助。我错了，应该让女王帮忙，请他来参加节目录制，他会在《全体播客》中进行一个简短的客串演出。
All right. Best CEO. Your best CEO.
好的，最棒的首席执行官。你们的最优秀首席执行官。
Best CEO. I'll go first. I'll go first. I haven't got first yet. I picked a wildcard here. I went Taylor Swift, $4 billion in revenue from the tour and the merchandise and the movie and everything. Each tour stop generates $90 million for the city she lands in. She's getting 85%. She went direct to movie theaters with that concert movie and made a quarter billion dollars. She stands down. The best CEO of 2023 for me.
最佳首席执行官。我来先说。我来先说。我还没有得到第一名。我选择了一张百变卡。我选择了泰勒·斯威夫特，她通过巡演、商品销售、电影等方式创造了40亿美元的收入。每个巡演地点为所在城市带来了9000万美元的收入。她能获得85%的利润。她把那场音乐会电影直接放映在电影院，获得了25亿美元的收入。她退居二线。对我来说，她是2023年最佳首席执行官。
We got you, Mom. Subtian Adele, CEO of Microsoft. I just think the gross tonnage of market cap dollars he added in 2023 plus figuring out how to close Activision plus retaining maximum optionality with OpenAI. It's just the masterclass in heads down management. Well done.
亲爱的妈妈，我们明白你的意思。这是微软首席执行官Subtian Adele说的。我只是觉得他在2023年增加的市值总量，以及如何成功收购动视暴雪，并保持与OpenAI的最大选择性，都展现了出色的专注管理。干得漂亮。
Sax, who do you got? I have Jensen Wang, CEO of NVIDIA and King of the GPU. We talked about the Magnificent Seven, but none was more Magnificent than NVIDIA, whose stock is up 235%. And earnings and forecasts keep blowing doors off. Jensen has been planning this moment for many years before the whole AI frenzy took hold. And NVIDIA is now repeating the benefit of that.
萨克斯，你认为谁会赢？我找了Jensen Wang，NVIDIA的首席执行官和GPU之王。我们聊过《七神财宝》，但没有一个比NVIDIA更为辉煌，他们的股价上涨了235%。而且收益和预测持续超预期。在整个人工智能狂潮兴起之前，Jensen早已计划了多年，现在NVIDIA正在重复这种好处。
Who do you got? Friedberg. I give it to Sam Altman because I don't think any individual has generated more attention on a private company and its effect on the world and the future than Sam Altman and OpenAI. And I think that he's been aggressive in raising capital. This guy can raise like he can raise. And then he over bets on people. He finds talent. He gives them extraordinary compackages, gets them to come and work on this extraordinary effort and then gets them to deliver results. He pushes the limits. He pushes the boundaries even beyond what's comfortable for his board members. Clearly, that comes with the good and the bad. And then even after he got ousted by his board, his entire employee base threw a crew and got him back and sure everyone's got their economic motivations to see that happen. But I still think that the setup was largely his work. So he does deserve credit for that. So all in, I think it's an incredible year for Sam Altman.
你觉得是谁？弗里德伯格。我认为在私人公司及其对世界和未来的影响方面，没有比萨姆·阿尔特曼和OpenAI引起更多关注的个人。而且我认为他在筹集资本方面非常积极。这个人能够筹到他想要的资金。然后他过于相信人。他寻找人才。给予他们非凡的报酬，让他们加入这个非凡的努力，并取得成果。他不断挑战极限。甚至超越董事会的舒适区限制。显然，这带来了好处和坏处。而且即使在被董事会驱逐后，他的所有员工群起而攻之，把他带回来，当然，每个人都有自己的经济动机来支持这一结果。但我仍然认为这一切主要是他的工作。所以总的来说，我认为这对萨姆·阿尔特曼来说是一个不可思议的一年。
Now we move on to 2023 Best Investor. Chamaap, who was your best investor for 2023 here at the Bestie Awards? It was a continuation of the last couple of years, but it's the pot shops and specifically Citadel. So I give that award to Ken Griffin. You know, pot shops, I think, have really become the hallway bully of the public capital markets and Citadel is the kingpin. They returned $7 billion to their investors in 23. I think if you go back since 2020, they've returned more than $20 billion. They generated 15% very steady returns uncorrelated to the market. It's just a machine. I mean, it's an incredible business that he's built. So he is, there's nobody close.
现在我们来到2023年度最佳投资者奖项。Chamaap，在最佳奖项颁奖典礼上，你的2023年度最佳投资者是谁？这是对过去几年的延续，但它是关于大麻商店，特别是雄狮资本。所以我把这个奖颁给了Ken Griffin。你知道，我认为大麻商店已经成为了公共资本市场上的霸凌者，并且雄狮资本是头目。他们在2023年向投资者返还了70亿美元。我认为如果回顾自2020年以来，他们返还了超过200亿美元。他们创造了15%非常稳定的回报率，与市场无关。这只是一个机器。我的意思是，他建立了一个令人难以置信的企业。所以他是无人能及的。
Saxo, do you? I've got Bill Ackman here for timing the bond market perfectly. He shorted bonds for most of the year, making hundreds of millions of dollars. And then on October 23, he announced that he was covering his positions and that it was too risky to stay short in bonds and he was going long. And that very day was the high point of the 10 year bond yield. The market made a bottom on October 27th since then yields have plummeted, which means that the value bonds is soared. And the best part of it is that Ackman is using his new FU money to take on Ivy League University presidents for their Woke DEI double standards, grifting and plagiarism. Well done.
你说呢，Saxo？我这里有比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman），他完美地把握债券市场的时机。他在大部分时间里做空债券，赚取了数亿美元。然后在10月23日，他宣布平仓，并表示继续做空债券太过冒险，他要换向做多。而那一天正是10年期债券收益率的高点。自那天起，市场在10月27日达到了底部，此后收益率大幅下降，这意味着债券价值飙升。最棒的是，阿克曼利用他的新资金来对抗常春藤联盟大学校长们的拜金主义、剽窃行为和“觉醒多元包容”双重标准。做得漂亮！
All right. Three break. We got I also said Ackman for his timing on the treasury trade. I was right there with you guys, except I wanted to go with the wild card. I am astounded by the growth of TikTok. And I just worked backwards. Arthur Dancik, who I've never met from Susquehanna International Group referred to a SIG in the industry, still owns according to sources, 15% of this company, which could be worth three, four, five hundred billion dollars when it goes out. And despite all the saber rattling, the CCP has not divested from it, even though Trump and Biden both said they were going to try to do that. And by dance was caught spying on American journalists using their TikTok data. So the fact that that investment is still in place to me is extraordinary. So congratulations to them. But I'd sell it quick.
好的，休息一下。我们也在对特里里交易时称赞了阿克曼的时机。我和你们一样，只是我更偏向于冒险一点。抖音的增长让我感到惊讶。我就是从相反的角度去思考的。阿瑟·丹契克是我从未见过的苏斯克哈纳国际集团的人，他在内行中提到，根据消息来源，他仍拥有这家公司15％的股份，当它上市时可能价值三四五千亿美元。尽管特朗普和拜登都表示要设法剥离中国共产党对其的投资，但中国共产党并没有剥离。而且拜登曾经利用TikTok的数据对美国记者实施监视。所以对我来说，这笔投资仍然存在是非同寻常的。所以恭喜他们。不过我会快速抛售。
All right. Now we move on. We'll move in quickly here.
好的，现在我们继续。我们会快速地进行下一步。
2023. Best turnaround. Who's your best turnaround your month? This was like three years in the making, but I'll give it to Novo Nordisk. I think the amount of attention that Novo has gotten for his epic, wagovii and Rybelsis in 2023 was incredible. But you have to go back to the last decade where the first five years, there was just not much activity and they had to maintain their investment, stay strong, stay focused. And then starting in about 2019, the stock has been about a four or five X in the last four or five years. And I think these semi-quitite GLP ones are here to stay. They're transformational on society. So that was an enormous task of corporate focus. So I'll give the turnaround award to Novo Nordisk.
2023年，最佳复苏。你本月最佳的复苏是谁？这个奖项花了三年的时间，但我会给它授予诺和诺正士（Novo Nordisk）。我认为诺和诺正士在2023年为他的Epic, Wagovii和Rybelsis所受到的关注数量是令人难以置信的。但要回溯到过去十年，前五年几乎没有多少活动，他们不得不保持投资、坚持和专注。然后从2019年开始，股票在过去四到五年里增长了大约四到五倍。我认为这些半合成GLP类药物是会长留下来的。它们对社会有着深远的影响。因此，我将将复苏奖授予诺和诺正士。
Saxo, you got in light of what's happening right now in the crypto markets. I'm going to go with Solana. Oh, wow. Wow. Wow. It began the year at about $9 a token. It's now at 92 as of this moment. Obviously, it's very volatile, but it's up roughly 10 X this year to date. And in light of the fact that various unscrupulous actors on the internet, it cues some of us of buying Solana at a discount and dumping it on retail without any evidence. And that wasn't true. Let's just say that those of us who are still holding bags of Solana are very happy campers right now. That's all there for the win. After the best.
Saxo，考虑到目前加密市场的情况，我决定选择Solana。哇哦，哇哦，哇哦！它今年初每个代币的价值大约为9美元，现在已经达到92美元。显然，它的价格波动很大，但今年至今涨了大约10倍。考虑到互联网上的一些不良行为者声称以折扣价购买Solana，并在零售市场倾倒，而这些指控没有任何证据，我们可以说那是不真实的。让我们只说那些仍然持有Solana的人现在非常高兴。胜利就在眼前，我们太棒了！
Freeberg, who do you got? Biggest business turnaround. I give it to Dara and Uber. When he took over that business, I think it was an eight to nine billion dollar net loss in 2019. $5 billion, but I'll run right now incredible forecasting, incredible skill in forecasting the sensitivities in that business, by the way. Same more. Same more. And obviously, he's seen the market cap just this year grow from 50 billion to 126 billion as of today. So give it to Dara for the big turnaround. Product sucks, though. I will say it's gotten expensive, hard to get an Uber, sit around and wait forever. So Dara, please fix that. Otherwise, good job.
Freeberg，你觉得是谁实现了最大的业务扭亏为盈？我认为是达拉和优步。当他接手这家公司时，2019年的净亏损大约为80到90亿美元。现在仅为50亿美元，但他目前的预测能力令人难以置信，对该业务的灵敏度预测也非常出色，顺便说一下，还有更多。而且，显然，今年的市值从500亿美元增长到了今天的1260亿美元。所以，大肆秀给达拉这次的巨大扭亏为盈。产品虽然不好，我必须承认它变得越来越贵，而且很难打车，需要等很久。所以，达拉，请解决这个问题。不过，除此之外，干得不错。
Well done. I went with one that you guys gave a words to and on all the previous words, Sam Waltman is all over this year's besties. I thought going from being fired for malfeasance to becoming a martyr. And then I'm the captain now. You can throw in the I'm the captain now meme right here, Nick, for the pod in about 10 days. He captured three full new cycles was named CEO of the year. And the palace intrigue raising money for an Nvidia killer in the Middle East. I mean, this guy is like James Bond plus a CEO. So what a great turnaround from fired to desired Sam Altman.
干得好！我选择了你们给出的一个词，并在之前的所有词汇中，萨姆·沃尔特曼都掌握了今年最佳。我觉得从因渎职而被解雇到成为一个烈士真是太厉害了。然后现在我就是船长了。尼克，你可以在这里加入“我就是船长”的梗，用于我们10天后的播客。他成功捕捉到了三个全新的周期，被评为年度首席执行官，并通过宫廷阴谋在中东筹集资金，打算杀入英伟达市场。我的意思是，这个家伙就像詹姆斯·邦德加上一位首席执行官。所以，从被解雇到备受追捧，真是一个伟大的转变，萨姆·奥尔特曼。
All right, let's go to our next one here. 2023, the worst company of the year. This is the company that is lo-sum and horrible in our opinions. And that's all it is, folks. It just for dudes opinions sacks. In your opinion, what was the worst company of 2023? I'm gonna go with Pfizer. Just last week, the Wall Street Journal had an expose on the inner turmoil at Pfizer as its market cap has lost $140 billion in valuation in 2023. By the way, that headline is ridiculous. Pfizer did not save the world. The reason why they are off so much is because of a massive drop in demand for tax loathed and for COVID boosters. Apparently, people do not see the value in those products. They finally figured it out. I would say that the company is also suffering from a credibility crisis by not leveling with the public about the efficacy and safety of their vaccines. The CEO Albert Burla was confronted in Davos by citizen journalists for this lack of transparency back in January of this year. And what's interesting is that if you read the Wall Street Journal piece, even his own employees are questioning Burla's candor when he announced on a company-wide virtual town hall that the company was embarking on a cost-cutting effort, the chat room erupted in snark, quote, future is bright, but you might get fired as how one employee characterized Burla's spin. This led another employee to reply, quote, dumpster fires are always bright.
好的，让我们来看下一个。2023年，年度最差公司。这是我们认为业绩低迷、糟糕透顶的公司。说实话，这只是男性个人意见的一种表达方式。请问，在你看来，2023年最糟糕的公司是哪家？我会选择辉瑞公司。就在上周，华尔街日报曝光了辉瑞公司内部的纷争，因为市值在2023年贬值了1400亿美元。顺便说一句，这个标题真是荒谬。辉瑞公司并没有拯救世界。他们之所以市值下滑如此严重，是因为对税收豁免和新冠疫苗加强针的需求大幅下降。显然，人们不再看重这些产品的价值。他们终于明白过来了。我认为，辉瑞公司还面临着公信力危机，他们没有向公众坦诚疫苗的功效和安全性。今年一月份，CEO阿尔伯特·伯拉在达沃斯被公民记者指责缺乏透明度。有趣的是，如果你读了华尔街日报的报道，甚至伯拉自己的员工也对他的坦率表示怀疑。当他在全公司虚拟城市会议上宣布公司将进行削减成本的努力时，聊天室里充斥着嘲讽，引用一名员工的话来说就是：“未来是光明的，但你可能会被解雇。”另一名员工回复说：“垃圾堆总是明亮的。”
All right, Friedberg worst company of 2023 for you. You have a worst company, most of them? I do. I'm going to get through this without getting interrupted. The worst company of 2023 is muyuan food stuff. This company is pure evil. It's got 137,000 employees. It's based in China. It's the world's largest slaughter of pigs. Slaughter is 2.1 million pigs per year. With the world's largest pig farm near Nanyang, where they basically take pigs from birth and breed them all the way through to slaughter. During their entire lives, these pigs never get to move more than a few inches. They live in these multi-story housing units that they never get to see sun or the light from the outside. Through their whole lives, they're kept separate from their families. Pigs are as smart as most dogs and even young children. At the end of their very painful, awful existences, they're slaughtered and fed to a growing population. China consumes over a billion pigs a year. It's a horrific situation. That's the most loathsome company of 2023.
好的，弗里德伯格是你们的2023年最差公司。你有最差的公司多吗？我有。我将在没有被打断的情况下说完。2023年最差的公司是牧原食品。这家公司是纯恶的。它有137,000名员工，总部位于中国。它是全球最大的屠宰猪场，每年屠宰210万头猪。位于南阳附近的全球最大猪场，从猪出生到被屠宰的整个过程都在那里进行。在它们一生中，这些猪从未能够移动超过几英寸。它们生活在多层住宅单位中，永远看不到阳光和外界的光线。在它们的整个生命中，它们与家人分离。猪的智商与大多数狗和年幼的孩子相当。在它们痛苦而可怕的存在的最后，它们被屠宰并成为日益增长的人口的食物。中国每年消耗超过十亿头猪。这是一个可怕的情况。这就是2023年最令人憎恶的公司。
Sounds delicious. I'm sorry. You went off camera a little bit. You went off camera. No, Jacob. You started laughing. It's not a funny thing. I saw you laughing. That's why I started laughing. I mean, I had 15 jokes, but I'm not going to make any of them. Yeah, but not a sulfur factory farming. It's horrible. Who was your worst company, Trimap? Come on, Trimap. Get in the game here. Who was your worst company? It's a tie between FTX and Silicon Valley Bank. One stole customer accounts and the other one just was run by a CEO and a risk management infrastructure that really imperiled and almost imperiled an entire industry. There you go. For me, it was Fox News. They deceived their loyal customers by knowingly spreading fake news about voting machines. They wound up firing their most loved host in our fifth bestie, Tucker Carlson. They paid record setting fines for misleading the public and creating massive division in our country. They're facing an even bigger lawsuit, a $2.7 billion lawsuit with another election technology company that will happen in 2025. Pension funds are now suing this loathsome company because they lost so much money for them. My worst company of the year is Fox News.
听起来好好吃。对不起。你刚才离开了镜头。你离开了镜头。不，Jacob。你开始笑了。这可不是什么好笑的事情。我看见你在笑。所以我也开始笑了。我有15个笑话，但我一个也不打算讲出来。是啊，但不是关于硫磺工厂养殖的。那太可怕了。你最糟糕的合作伙伴是谁，Trimap？来吧，Trimap。加入进来。你最差的合作伙伴是谁？是FTX和硅谷银行。一个窃取了客户账户，而另一个则由一位首席执行官和一套风险管理基础设施管理，对整个行业造成了严重危害。我最差的合作伙伴是福克斯新闻。他们通过故意传播关于选举机器的假新闻来欺骗他们忠诚的顾客。他们最终解雇了他们最受喜爱的主持人，我们的第五好朋友，塔克·卡尔森。他们因误导公众和造成国家大规模分裂而支付了创纪录的罚款。他们还将在2025年面临一个更大的2.7亿美元的诉讼，与另一家选举技术公司有关。养老基金现在正在起诉这个可恶的公司，因为他们为此损失了很多钱。今年我最糟糕的公司是福克斯新闻。
All right. Actually, I'm just sorry. I'm going for the microphone. I'm not going to defend Fox after they fire Tucker. Exactly. That's why I put it in there. I do think the judgments are the magnitude of the judgments are ridiculous. Okay. Now it's time. We have a little bit of fun here. Best meme. Your best meme. Fun stuff. I'll start it off this year. I love the Boston cop on a slide. I don't know if you guys have seen this one, but it went super viral. They've made millions of versions of it. This is the cop in Boston going down a slide. And the backstory here, bunch of cops were told there's a slide that's too dangerous in Boston. One of them tried to do their duty and confirm that it was in fact dangerous. And he got injured coming down the slide. And now anytime something is going off the track, whether it's a market or a company, you play that clip. Sax, you're a master of memes. What do you got for us this year in the 2023 bestie awards? Well, I think the meme of the year had to be at the GFY. Iran's answer to Bob Eiger's attempt to blackmail him. Nick, but we need to see this in the gift version. The way the hand motions are, it's this, then this, and then it comes back in.
好的，实际上，我只是感到抱歉。如果离职，我不会为福克斯辩护，特克被解雇后。确实是这样，这就是为什么我加上它的原因。我认为这些判断的程度太荒谬了。好的，现在是时候来点乐趣了。最佳梗不妨开个头。你的最佳梗是什么？好玩的东西。我先来今年的。我喜欢波士顿的警察滑梯。不知道你们有没有看过，它在网络上爆红了。已经制作了数百万个版本。这是波士顿的警察滑下滑梯的视频。背后的故事是，有些警察被告知波士顿有一条太危险的滑梯。其中一个警察尝试了解是否真的危险，结果在滑下梯子时受伤了。现在，每当有事情出了轨道，无论是市场还是公司，你播放那个片段。Sax，你是个梗大师。你在2023年最佳梗奖中有什么给我们的？嗯，我认为今年最佳梗必须是GFY。这是伊朗对鲍勃·艾格试图勒索他的回应。尼克，但我们需要看到它的gif版本。手势是这样的，然后是这样，然后回来。
Good for a conductor of an orchestra. It's just a standard good for you. Chamath, did you have a favorite? Chamath, a favorite meme of 2023? Yeah, Nick, if you want to just throw it up there. I'm a journalist and it's the kid. Yeah, I'm a journalism journalist. What is this talking about? I think it's what we all know. And I think it was further exposed this year, just the brazen naked ambition and corrupt nature of the mainstream media. Jason, you said it really well. And I really made an impact on me. So I want to give you credit. We are all citizen journalists, investigative journalists now. And I think that that's true. I think we all have a responsibility to pick the information source and to vet it. Yeah, they've never been more true than this. You got to have multiple sources trying to like the truth for yourself. Yeah, I wouldn't trust the mainstream media at this point, you know, as but one of many sources, Freeberg, you got a favorite meme? Got a favorite meme? No, I didn't put anything on this.
对于一个乐团指挥来说非常好。这只是对你来说一个标准的好东西。Chamath，你有最喜欢的吗？Chamath，2023年最喜欢的表情包？是的，Nick，如果你想展示一下。我是一名记者，那个小孩的表情包。是的，我是一名新闻记者。这是在讨论什么？我想这是我们大家都知道的。我认为今年更进一步揭示了主流媒体公然的野心和腐败本质。Jason，你说得很好。这对我产生了很大的影响。所以我要给你点赞。我们现在都是公民记者、调查记者。我认为这是真实的。我认为我们都有责任选择信息来源并加以甄别。是的，从来没有比这更真实的了。你必须要拥有多个来源来寻找真相。是的，在这一点上我不会相信主流媒体，你知道的，他只是众多来源之一。Freeburg，你有最喜欢的表情包吗？最喜欢的表情包？不，我没在这上面放任何东西。
Okay, you gave us six minutes on pigs being killed, but you can't come up with one meme. Okay. Can't come up with a meme. Come on, man. I think it's kind of funny, actually. It's kind of funny. It has no memes meme.
好的，你给了我们六分钟讲述猪被杀的事情，但却无法想出一个梗图。好吧，无法想出一个梗图。拜托，兄弟。事实上，我觉得有点好笑。就是这么搞笑，没有任何梗图的梗图。
All right, best new tech. Best new tech. We got to keep things moving. Last year, it was fusion and GPT across the board. This year, I'll just get a mine out of the way real quick. I'm going to go with something more specific. Chat GPT's app has been extraordinary. It now has 4.0 and it has dolly in it. I've been making incredible images to go with my, my substac and my blog posts that I would have paid thousands of dollars. You know, for each one of those when I was doing magazines and they have voice chat. If you haven't connected, Chat GPT's voice app to the new action button on the iPhone 15, there's a button above your volume called action. You can map it to a specific feature inside of any app. I mapped it to voice chat on Chat GPT. When I'm driving with my kids, they have a question. We put it in and we just started asking questions about history, science, whatever it happens to be, pop culture, music to Chat GPT for. And it is an extraordinary breakthrough app. And it's, you know, been downloaded, I think hundreds of millions of times now or over 100 million incredible, incredible progress there.
好的，最好的新技术。最好的新技术。我们必须保持事情的进展。去年是核聚变和GPT在各个领域都很流行。今年，我会很快介绍一个相关的话题。我要选择一个更具体的内容。Chat GPT的应用程序非常出色。它现在已经更新到4.0版本，里面还有人工智能助手Dolly。我用它创作了一些令人惊艳的图像，用于我的子网站和博客文章，这些图像如果我以前在杂志上做的话可能要花费数千美元。而且它还支持语音聊天。如果你还没有将Chat GPT的语音应用程序连接到iPhone 15上的新动作按钮，可以在音量上方找到一个叫做“动作”的按钮。你可以将它映射到任何应用程序中的特定功能。我将它映射到了Chat GPT的语音聊天功能。当我和孩子们一起开车时，他们有问题时，我们就把问题提问给Chat GPT，无论是关于历史、科学，还是流行文化、音乐等等。它是一款非常突破性的应用程序。而且，它已经被下载了几亿次，或者说超过一亿次了，进展真是令人难以置信。
Chamath, you had a best tech? Best new tech? I don't think there was anything meaningful in 2023. I think there was a lot of improvements to things that were founded and started in 2020 or 2021 or 2022. Nothing new that couple, this year, Saks.
Chamath，你有最好的技术吗？最好的新技术？我认为在2023年没有什么有意义的技术。我觉得在2020年、2021年或2022年成立和开始的事物上有很多改进。今年没有什么新的技术，Saks。
I have Starling for JetSuite X. Of course, I've never used it, but I heard it's great. But if you do fly with other humans who you don't know, I would be impressed to Starling for private aviation as well. But I've heard it's a real game changer on commercial flights and every kind of flight.
我有一个Starling加入JetSuite X。当然，我从来没有使用过，但听说它非常棒。不过，如果你和不认识的其他人一起飞行，我也会对Starling私人航空印象深刻。我听说它在商业航班和各种航班上都是一种真正的革命性产品。
Freeber. Best new tech? My best new tech of this year, I think is really important as we race to keep the promise of AI alive in the face of increasing government regulation, which is open source locally run LLMs. So you can take an LLM and you can run it on your machine. You don't have to be connected to the internet. You don't have to have a third party service provider making an LLM available to you. And so this allows the continued development and pursuit of productivity gains and new capabilities that emerge from these LLMs by making them local, offline, disconnected from the internet and away from the screwed ability of agencies that want to check your model and make sure it's okay. So this is really important to me. I do think my broader trend right now is I think that there's this really scary, big shift of you're either going to end up in a new enlightenment or you're going to end up in a new dark ages. And I think we're seeing this play out in all these conflicts around the world, in all of this regulation and all of the technology that's being deemed either a threat or an opportunity. And so I think any technology capability that allows us to pursue the enlightenment is a winner for me. So anyway, this was a big shift that happened this year and there's multiple models that are publicly available that are free, open source that you can run.
Freeber. 最好的新技术？我认为今年最重要的新技术是LLMs的本地开源运行。由于政府监管的增加，我们亟需保持人工智能的承诺，而这一点非常重要。因此，你可以把一个LLM下载到你的计算机上运行。你无需连接互联网，也无需依赖第三方服务提供商来获取LLM。这样一来，就可以继续开发和追求从这些LLMs中获得的生产力提升和新能力，因为它们是本地的、离线的，与互联网隔离，远离那些想检查你的模型并确保其合规的机构。所以对我来说，这真的非常重要。我现在认为整体趋势是，要么你最终陷入新的启示时代，要么你最终陷入新的黑暗时代。我认为我们正在看到这种趋势在全球各地的冲突中发生，以及所有被划定为威胁或机会的技术中体现出来。所以，任何能让我们追求启示时代的技术能力都是我支持的。总之，今年发生了一个重大转变，现在有多个公开可用、免费、开源的模型可以运行。
Okay, 2023, best trend. Shama, what was the best trend 2023 for you? I actually didn't really couldn't figure one out. Okay, Saks, you got a best trend for 2023. Something that happened often it became a trend. My best trend is the return of color blindness as the standard and the pushback on DEI. We already talked about the university presidents and what Bill Ackman is doing. I would add to that that the Supreme Court banned race based affirmative action and university admissions in June. And Red State governors like Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis took that as a green light to shut down DEI programs in their public colleges and universities. I think that this is a good trend and hopefully it continues next year because America should be a colorblind meritocracy.
好的，2023年，最佳趋势。夏玛，对你来说，2023年最好的趋势是什么？实际上，我并没有真正找到一个。好的，萨克斯，你有2023年最好的趋势吗？一些经常发生的事情成为了一种趋势。我最喜欢的趋势是色盲重新成为标准，并对多元包容与公平制度（DEI）进行反弹。我们已经谈到了大学校长和比尔·阿克曼在做什么。我还要补充的是，最高法院在6月禁止了基于种族的平权行动，并取消了大学录取中的种族配额。而且，像格雷格·阿伯特和罗恩·德桑特斯这样的红色州长借此机会关闭了公立学校中的DEI项目。我认为这是一个好的趋势，希望明年能够继续下去，因为美国应该是一个色盲的择业制度。
Friedberg, what was your best trend of 2023? The profitability focus at young companies, particularly in an age of AI, co-pilot tools for software development. From what I've seen, it's pretty incredible. Single person efforts can yield what historically is required 612 or more people to do using co-pilot tools and AI. So software development is accelerated, new products and entire companies can be built by single individual at very low cost building totally customized software. So from what I've seen, it's not widely adopted. These capabilities, as you guys probably have seen as well, it's starting to be. But just imagine once the majority of people are using these co-pilot tools to write software and start to learn how to use these tools, it's really going to increase productivity globally as it finds its way into every business and everyone can become an entrepreneur and so on. So it's incredible to see. I too, SACS was looking at the issue of DEI and I framed mine as DEI dying and meritocracy thriving. That was the best trend for me. So we are once again, Simpatico, UNI, DEI dying, meritocracy, thriving. Nicely done. You really are proving you're a centrist. Or I just listened to MLK's speech and I thought, that seems like the most logical thing to do. Yeah, you're right. Absolutely. 100%. 100%. We figured this out some time ago. Yeah, I don't know why we have to rehash it.
2023年最好的趋势是什么，Friedberg？特别是在人工智能和软件开发的辅助工具中，年轻公司的盈利重心。从我所见，这非常了不起。单个人的努力可以完成以前需要612个或更多人使用辅助工具和人工智能才能完成的工作。因此，软件开发加速了，个人可以以非常低的成本构建完全定制的软件，从而建立全新的产品和公司。所以根据我所见，这种能力并没有被广泛采用。你们可能也注意到，这些能力开始被采用。但是想象一下，一旦大多数人开始使用这些辅助工具来编写软件并学会使用这些工具，它将真正提高全球的生产力，因为它将渗透到每个企业，每个人都可以成为企业家等等。所以这真是令人难以置信。我也在关注DEI问题，我认为DEI正在消亡，择优制度正在兴起，这对我来说是最好的趋势。所以我们又再次达成了共识，DEI消亡，择优制度兴起。干得漂亮。你真的证明了你是一个中间派。或者我只是听了马丁·路德·金的演讲，觉得这是最合乎逻辑的事情。是的，你说得对。完全正确。我们早就明白了这一点。是的，我也不知道为什么我们还要重申这一点。
Okay, 2023, worst trend. I'll lead it off. I had three here of worst trends. Number one, antisemitism, absolutely disgusting and horrible. Two, Trump's rehabilitation. We'll just leave it at that. And then three, people of low moral character using the freedom of speech movement to whitewash their horrible personal behavior. Yes, I'm talking about Alex Jones to all the mids in the comments. Saks, what was the worst trend for you? You had to have three, didn't you? Well, I'm going to go with antisemitism. Those are my two runners. Two runners. Fair enough. I think you guys are like my worst trend. It is the metastasizing national debt. This chart really makes it clear. You can see here the national debt as a function of deficit and revenues. And it's a upside down hockey stick. Jesus. If a company could produce user growth that looked like this, I would invest all day long. However, this is not growth. This is basically how much we owe. And it is a bipartisan problem. It's been going on for really 20 plus years, but it is getting worse and worse under Biden. Yeah. 8 trillion added to the deficit under Trump and looks like 5 to 6 trillion under Biden. Well, you know, we did have a COVID. We did have felt down where the economy was down 30% year over year. So the tax that's in COVID. Yeah. Both parties supported that bailout. And in hindsight, it was excessive. Yeah. Biden's quote unquote stimulus was passed on straight party lines after COVID was ready over. Yeah. So I think we should just make sure to apportion the blame correctly. But like I said, bipartisan problem. Yeah, I agree. By Patterson and Trump did a very ill timed tax cut before COVID. So it's a double hit. If you want to compare it in eight years, Obama added 8 trillion. So it was one trillion a year. These new guys getting close to 2 trillion per year. So they doubled the velocity of spending just completely disastrous.
好的，2023年最糟糕的趋势，我来首先谈谈。我列出了三个最糟糕的趋势。第一，反犹太主义，绝对令人恶心和可怕。第二，特朗普的复兴，我们就此打住。第三，道德品质低下的人利用言论自由的运动来掩盖他们可怕的个人行为。是的，我在谈论亚历克斯·琼斯，评论区里所有的人都知道。萨克斯，你认为最糟糕的趋势是什么？你也列出了三个，对吧？嗯，我会选择反犹太主义。那就是我的两个选择。两个选择，公平的说。我觉得你们就是最糟糕的趋势。那就是国家债务的肆虐增长。这张图清楚地显示了情况。你可以看到国家债务与赤字和税收的关系。它像一个倒过来的曲棍球棒。天哪。如果一个公司能够产生这样的用户增长，我愿意一整天都投资。然而，这不是增长，而是我们欠下的债务。这是一种两党共同面临的问题。这个问题已经持续了20多年，但在拜登的领导下越来越糟糕。是的。特朗普在任期内增加了8万亿的赤字，而拜登估计增加了5至6万亿。嗯，你知道，我们确实经历了COVID。我们确实遭受了经济下滑，年度下降了30%。所以这是COVID疫情造成的。是的。两党都支持了那次救助计划。事后看来，那是过度的。是的。拜登的所谓刺激计划在COVID结束后以纯党派方式通过了。是的。所以我觉得我们应该确保正确地分配责任。不过，正如我说过的，这是一个两党都面临的问题。是的，我同意。帕特森和特朗普在COVID之前实施了一个非常不适时的税收减免。所以这是一个双重打击。如果你想比较一下，在奥巴马八年任期内增加了8万亿。所以每年增加一万亿。这些新人每年增加接近2万亿，完全是灾难性的。
Jamal, what's the worst trend for you? I just think it's the general state of affairs amongst our young people. Our 20 year olds and our 30 year olds, I think are really struggling. And it's gotten worse. I'll give you two examples here. You see on your screen this year, 158,000 more Americans died than expected, which is more than all the wars combined in Vietnam. And when you look at where those death rates are, those death rates were coming from 35 to 44 year olds, which was up 26% and 25 to 34 year olds, which was up 20% about pre COVID levels. And all we can point to from the government establishment is that it's smoking at a bad diet, which doesn't really hang together. And then the second trend is when you look at just general marriage rates amongst these same cohort of people, it's meaningfully worse than every cohort above it. So just societally, these folks are not tracking in whatever dimension you want to measure sort of like happiness, fulfillment, stability, safety. Something is meaningfully wrong in these cohorts of people and we owe it to them to figure it out. The one thing you missed there, Atchamath in the Western world, at least 36% increase in suicide over the past two decades. So a lot of it's another one. It's another one. So that might be the main one I think in this is the mental health issues are acute.
Jamal，对你来说，最糟糕的趋势是什么？我只是认为我们年轻人的总体状况是最糟糕的。我们的二三十岁的人们，我认为他们真的挣扎着。而且情况变得更糟。我给你举两个例子。你可以在屏幕上看到，今年比预期多出了15.8万名美国人死亡，这比越战期间所有战争的死亡人数还要多。而且当你看到这些死亡率的来源时，35至44岁的人群的死亡率上升了26%，25至34岁的人群的死亡率上升了20%，相对于疫情前的水平。而政府机构唯一能够指出的原因是吸烟和不健康饮食，这说不通。另一个趋势是，只要看一下这些人群中的结婚率，就会发现它实际上比上面每个年龄段都要糟糕。所以就社会而言，这些人在幸福、满足感、稳定性和安全性等各个方面都没有达到应有的水平。在这些人群中，某些方面存在重大问题，我们有责任找出原因来解决。你错过的一点是，阿查马斯，在西方世界，自杀率在过去的20年里增加了至少36%。所以这可能是我认为最主要的问题，即心理健康问题是严重的。
Okay, we have free bear, you're left for the worst trend, the bestie award for worst trend of 2023. What do you got? I don't know, I had one, I'm going to change it on the fly. I'm going to go with the normalization of spending. I think it's probably the worst trend. Like it's, you know, it used to be a big deal. Remember when the TART program happened in 2008, and it was an incredible single line item of $800 billion to support the troubled asset relief effort to try and keep the economy stable by buying up all of this failing debt and supporting all of these equities and keeping these businesses going. And now it's like $100 billion for this, a trillion for that. It's like we've normalized spending and COVID just made it worse. So to your guys's point earlier about the acceleration of spending, once you spend a dollar, you think it's okay to spend a dollar. And then next time you spend two, it's not that bad. It's only a dollar more. And the next time you spend five, it's only three bucks more. And suddenly it becomes normal. And this normalization catches up to us. I've harped on this enough. So I won't go into it too much. But I mean, that's the worst. Who did you change from? What was your original? My original was the merging of the oppressor oppressed ideologies that are in diametric opposition to each other. I just found this more ironic than the worst trend, I think, which is like LGBTQ groups that were pro Hamas that were marching and supporting Hamas, which is anti LGBTQ. It was just so mind blowing to me to see some of the behavior over the last couple of months that made absolutely no sense. And it shows how little first principles thinking people are actually doing about the things that they're standing up for. Standing up for a free Palestine is one kind of point. But being pro Hamas, when Hamas would have a responsibility of eradicating people like you, it's just it's just nuts to me. So there's just some of the stuff that I've seen where the oppressor oppressed ideology is trained to fit everything, even if it makes absolutely no sense. So it's just really frustrating to see.
好吧，我们有免费的啤酒，你们将成为2023年最糟糕趋势的贝斯特奖。你有什么看法？我不知道，我本来有一个，但我现在要快速改变一下。我觉得最糟糕的趋势可能是开支的正常化。你知道的，过去这是个大事。还记得2008年出现债务破产救济计划吗？当时为了支持受困资产救助措施并试图通过购买这些失败的债务、支持这些股权和保持这些企业运转，我们花费了8000亿美元。而现在，这就像为这个花1000亿，为那个花一万亿的事情一样。我们已经把开支正常化了，而新冠疫情只会让情况变得更糟。关于开支加速化的问题，正如你们之前提到的，一旦你花了一美元，你就认为花一美元是可以接受的。而下一次你花两美元，也没那么糟糕。再下一次花五美元，只比上次多三美元而已。突然之间，这种开支变得正常了。而这种正常化追赶上了我们。我已经对此说了很多次了，所以我不会过多地展开。但是，这是最糟糕的。你换了谁？你原来的答案是什么？我的原来答案是压迫者与被压迫者意识形态的融合，它们在思想上是相对立的。然而我觉得这种趋势更具讽刺意味，LGBTQ组织支持哈马斯的现象。哈马斯是反LGBTQ的。过去几个月我看到的一些行为实在让我感到震惊，它们完全没有意义。这显示了人们在支持某些事物时对基本原则的缺乏思考。支持自由巴勒斯坦是一回事，但支持哈马斯，而哈马斯负责消灭像你一样的人，对我来说实在太荒谬了。所以，我看到了一些压迫者与被压迫者意识形态被强行套用的例子，即使这完全没有意义。看到这些真的很令人沮丧。
Okay, now we go on to a little casual. The best awards for 2023 favorite media favorite media new things that came out in the media could be a video game book, music or a TV show. I'll lead us off here. Just get it out of the way real quick. For me, the secession finale, extraordinary, one of the best pieces of television ever made. And my sleeper was the bear season two, very niche show on FX. I think I turned a lot of you onto it. And season two had an episode episode five, which is the forks episode in which Cammy sends Richie to intern at a very elite restaurant and he's charged with polishing silverware and Garrett and him get into it. Why am I doing all the stupid stuff? And he just tells him listen, every day here is a freaking Super Bowl. And it's just a great, great, amazing episode of television with extraordinary performances and writing.
好的，现在我们来聊一些轻松的话题。2023年最佳奖项中，我最喜欢的媒体新作可能是一款视频游戏、一本书、一首音乐或者一部电视节目。我先来说说我的选择。首先，我要提到电视剧《继承者》的结局，真是太出色了，可以说是电视史上的经典之作。而我认为大家可能不太熟悉的是FX频道的一部小众剧集《熊 第二季》。第二季的第五集是剧中的一个重要环节，角色Cammy让Richie去一家非常高级的餐厅实习，负责擦拭银器，结果和Garrett发生了一些摩擦。Richie觉得自己为什么要做这些愚蠢的事情，然后Garrett告诉他，这里的每一天都像是超级碗一样重要。这一集是一部极其精彩的电视剧，表演和剧本都非常出色。
Chamath, did you have any favorite media this year? Anything that Taylor Swift did this year was Whitehall. Here are Swiftie. She is a tour de force. She's incredible. And she's a genius. What can you say? Nothing.
Chamath，你今年有喜欢的媒体吗？泰勒·斯威夫特今年做的任何事情都是了不起的。我们是她的粉丝。她是一位非常强大的人物，令人难以置信而且很有天赋。你有什么话要说吗？什么都不能说。
Zach's. I'm going to use my spot to draw attention to some podcasts that you may not have heard of. Some geopolitics and world affairs podcasts. So that probably my number one is the Duran with Alexander McChirus and Alex Christophoro. I'd also give honorable mention to Judge Napolitano's podcast and Colonel Daniel Davis. I have found these three podcasts to be quite useful in understanding what's happening in the rest of the world. And I found their reporting and analysis be more accurate than anything you're going to get in the mainstream media.
嗨Zach，在这里我要利用我的机会来引起你对一些你可能未曾听说过的播客的关注。其中一些关于地缘政治和世界事务的播客。所以我认为我最喜欢的第一个是Durian播客，由亚历山大·麦克基罗斯和亚历克斯·克里斯托弗罗主持。我还要特别提及法官纳波利塔诺（Judge Napolitano）和丹尼尔·戴维斯上校的播客。我发现这三个播客在了解世界其他地区发生的事情方面非常有用。我发现他们的报道和分析比你在主流媒体上得到的任何东西都更准确。
Free break. Any favorite media for you as we get close to wrapping here. I recently read a book that I liked. I don't know if I talked about it called the idea factory on the history of Bell Labs and the great age of American innovation. Strongly recommended it. I had no idea how much this Bell Labs institution touched modern life from radar to the transistor to the nuclear bomb to computing. Even information theory was developed inside of Bell Labs. It was an incredible organization that took its roots in an institutionalized monopoly, which then enabled them to have one customer that was always a built-in customer, but gave them the freedom and the resourcing to build all of these great things. And for anyone that wants to say that monopolies, stifle innovation, I encourage you to read this book because it really says the opposite may be true that a monopoly enables investment in long-term thinking and long-term ideas that you never otherwise see. So I give it to that.
免费休息。随着我们即将结束，你有任何喜欢的媒体吗？我最近读了一本我喜欢的书。我不知道是否提过它，叫做《创意工厂》，讲述了贝尔实验室和美国创新黄金时代的历史。强烈推荐。我之前从未意识到贝尔实验室对现代生活的影响有多大，从雷达到晶体管，再到核弹和计算机，甚至信息论都是在贝尔实验室内发展起来的。这是一个令人难以置信的组织，它的起源是一个制度化的垄断，这使得它们一直拥有内置客户，同时也给予了它们建造所有这些伟大事物的自由和资源。对于任何声称垄断会扼杀创新的人，我鼓励你阅读这本书，因为它实际上说的可能正好相反，垄断使得对长期思维和创意的投资成为可能，否则你可能无法见到。所以我给出如此评价。
I also had a softer one. Have you guys ever watched Bobby Altoff's podcast? I found this so funny this year. You guys ever seen it? Her interview with Drake is hilarious. It's so funny. So she interviewed Drake. She's interviewed Cuban. Oh, yes. I know you're talking about the deadpan. Yeah, the deadpan. So she's got this like wholly disinterested persona, and it totally encapsulates like a Gen Z personality in a way that you don't get in any other media. And she's hilarious when she does these interviews. And she's very unique, like Andy Kaufman or Jim Carrey, in that sense, unique in how she does this. I just think like we'll see if the stick lasts. Like she may end up kind of being tired soon and see if she has a second act. The Drake interview was really good. The one with Cuban had two problems with it. One, they sat on the ground and then two, Cuban's feet were really dirty. Did you see the one with Shaq? And so I was like, bro, like, yeah, just keep the shoes on and just, the Shaq one was hilarious. But anyway, she's got great content. It's hit or miss, by the way, I'll also say it's not consistent. Hit or miss, but I don't know. I just found her to be a little bit of a unique standout in content this year. Everyone's kind of me too, me too. It looks the same. She she stood out a bit for me.
我也有一个较轻松的一面。你们有没有看过Bobby Altoff的播客？我今年发现这个太有趣了。你们看过吗？她采访Drake的那一期太搞笑了。真的太搞笑了。她还采访过Cuban。哦，是的，我知道你在说那个冷静的其中一个。是的，冷静的那个。所以她有这种完全不感兴趣的形象，完全体现了Gen Z的个性，其他媒体中没有这样的。她采访的时候真的很搞笑。而且她很独特，就像Andy Kaufman 或者 Jim Carrey一样，以某种方式，她在这方面很独特。我只是觉得我们会看看这个角色能持续多久。也许她很快就会感到累了，然后看看她是否有第二幕。Drake的采访真的很好看。和Cuban的那一期有两个问题。首先，他们坐在地上，然后Cuban的脚真的很脏。你看过那一期和Shaq的吗？所以我就说，哥们，别脱鞋，而且Shaq的那期真的很搞笑。但是无论如何，她的内容很棒。顺便说一句，有好有坏，不太一致。好坏参半，但是我不知道。我只是觉得她在今年的内容中有点独特，大家都差不多，差不多。她对我来说有点出众。
In that vein, have you seen Z-way Z-I-W-E? She is a woman who interviews people and then she asks people very uncomfortable questions about race. Like how many black friends do you have named them? And it is hilarious. It is like the greatest bit ever. Shout out to Z-way. And since we went there on, who's seen it? You saw it, yeah. I mean, if you're on TikTok, you'll see it because she just had like, yeah, she just has anybody in pop culture. She had the George Santos on. She had George Santos on her here. Yeah. Wow. And it was just so incredible. Crazy.
在这方面，你看过Z-way Z-I-W-E吗？她是一个采访人们并且问非常尴尬的种族问题的女人。比如你有多少个黑人朋友，她要你一个一个说出名字。这真的很有趣。这就像是有史以来最好的节目。向Z-way大喊一声。那么，有谁看过吗？你看过，是吧。如果你在TikTok上，你会看到的，因为她会邀请所有的流行文化人物。她邀请过George Santos上她的节目。是的，太不可思议了。疯狂。
On the podcasting front, shout out to our friend, Gwen of the Paltrow. If you don't listen to the Goop podcast, she does like interviews every other time. Really good. Red Scare, another great alternative podcast I'd like to listen to from the dirt bag left, as they call it, and shout out Pre-Barara's cafe insider cafe.com.
在播客领域，向我们的朋友Gwen of the Paltrow表示致敬。如果你不听Goop播客，她每隔一段时间都会做一些访谈。非常不错。Red Scare是另一个我很想听的很棒的另类播客，正如他们所说，它是“肮脏左翼”的一部分。还要感谢Pre-Barara的cafe insider cafe.com。
All right. I think is this the end producer, Nick? Are we here? Did we make it?
好的。我想这就是制片人，尼克，对吗？我们到了吗？我们成功了吗？
Last one. Last one. We have a special award here, the Self-Imulation Award. This has been named after Rudy Giuliani. So Rudy Giuliani, Self-Imulation Award. And this is a tough one to give this year, Saks. What do you have? Because it's going to be quite self-referential here. Go.
最后一个，最后一个。我们这里有一个特别奖项，名为自我燃烧奖。这个奖项以鲁迪·朱利安尼命名。所以鲁迪·朱利安尼，自我燃烧奖。今年这个奖项颁发起来很困难，萨克斯。你有什么想法？因为这将会相当自嘲。开始吧。
I am going to name Liz McGill, the now former president of the University of Pennsylvania, who had been vomiting on herself for two months in the aftermath of October 7th, before she even appeared at that congressional hearing with the presence of Harvard MIT. She answered what was clearly a moral question with a tone deaf legalistic answer, saying that advocacy of genocide against Jews depends on context, falls into question whether one is smart enough to be university president. It's not a job that demands that much intelligence, but it does require an instinct for knowing when and how to cover your own ass. When she was finally forced to step down, it felt like a mercy killing. Yeah.
我要提到现在已经辞去宾夕法尼亚大学校长职务的丽兹·麦吉尔。在10月7日之后的两个月里，她一直在呕吐，甚至在出席哈佛麻省理工学院参加的那场国会听证会之前。她对一个明显的道德问题回答得非常冷漠，并以法律的口吻回答说，针对犹太人的种族灭绝提倡取决于情境，这引发了人们对她是否足够聪明担任大学校长的质疑。这个工作并不要求太高的智力，但确实需要一种知道何时何地以及如何自保的本能。当她最终被迫辞职时，感觉像是对她的一种慈悲。是的。
Was she the one smirking to? She had the awkward smarts? That was what I found the most appalling was the awkward smirks.
她是那个傻笑的人吗？她有一种尴尬但聪明的样子？最让我觉得可怕的是那种尴尬的傻笑。
Chamath, who let themselves on fire, most of all, they share who poured gasoline over their heads and just lit up a stogie. I think it's the brand and reputation of the IVs. I think that there was irreparable harm. Well done.
尽可能易读的表达：
Chamath，他们让自己着火了，最重要的是，他们分享了是谁给他们的头上倒汽油并点燃了雪茄。我认为这与IVs的品牌和声誉有关。我认为造成了不可挽回的伤害。干得好。
Yes. We've had generations now that have been taught that that is where we send our best and brightest kids, but it turns out that they're getting indoctrinated into some very kind of extreme rhetoric that then produces these incapable first principles thinkers. That will be the destruction of our society if we don't fix it. I think Harvard applications were down 17% already. I expect that trend across the IVs to go way up. I expect contributions to go down. I expect governments to ratchet down their spending in those schools, and I expect some folks to try to take away their non-profit status. So I think that we are going to reallocate the brand equity of the IVs to good schools. And we will know what the good schools are based on their independence, their ability to churn out first principles thinkers, and their respect for freedom of speech without being moral idiots.
是的。多代人一直被教导，认为这些学校是我们派遣最优秀的孩子们的地方，但事实证明他们在这里受到了一些极端言论的洗脑，导致他们无法进行首要原则的思考。如果我们不解决这个问题，这将是我们社会的毁灭。我认为哈佛大学的申请人数已经下降了17%。我预计这种趋势在常春藤联盟中会大幅上升。我希望捐款会下降，政府也会削减在这些学校的支出，并且我预计一些人会试图收回它们的非营利组织地位。因此，我认为我们需要重新分配常春藤联盟学校的品牌价值给优秀的学校。我们将根据这些学校的独立性、培养首要原则思考者的能力以及对言论自由的尊重来判断哪些学校是好学校，而不是道德白痴。
Friedberg. What do you got?
弗里德伯格，你有什么？
Well, well, Sanchima. Ivy League presidents. Okay. Well done. No need to add too much more there, I guess.
嗯，嗯，Sanchima，常春藤联盟校的校长们。好吧。干得漂亮。我猜不需要再多说什么了。
I was torn here between the namesake of this very award. If you missed it, Rudy Giuliani had a $150 million judgment against him maybe two weeks ago for slandering two poor, innocent people in his electoral scam that he ran with Trump. And he, I think, is going to get indicted next year for these fake electorates. So follow the fake electorates one. But that was a close one for me because Kanye West also lit himself on fire in the past year with the Adidas contract and his anti-Semitism getting kicked off Twitter X. But I feel like that was mental illness. And I think Rudy Giuliani is just stupid. So I give it to Rudy Giuliani, the namesake of this award. And I hope that's all about that, J Cal is I'm not going to defend him or his actions at all. However, I do think I do think that judgment was excessive. And it's part of a pattern of ridiculous judgments that we see when you have, for example, a DC jury poll judging a conservative or a Republican whose politics they disagree with. The plaintiffs only asked for $48 million. The jury awarded three times that it's an excessive award. I think a few million dollars as a penalty would have been a perfectly nice award. I think to bankrupt the man, which is what you're talking about is becoming a bit of a pile on. And I'm all in favor of Rudy being the butt of jokes until the point where really you're talking about destroying his life. I think it's gone way too far. Yeah, these words are curious and how large they are. They all get appealed though, and they all come down. So I'm sure that'll come down by some massive percentage in the near future.
我在这里在这个非常奖项的名字中徘徊不决。如果你错过了，鲁迪·朱利安尼大约两周前被判赔偿1.5亿美元，因为他诽谤了两个在他与特朗普合谋的选举骗局中无辜的贫困人口。我认为他明年将因伪选举而被起诉。所以请关注伪选举。但对我来说，这是一个很难抉择的地方，因为坎耶·维斯特在过去一年中也因阿迪达斯合同和他的反犹太主义而让自己很丑陋，被推出推特X。但我觉得那是精神疾病。我认为鲁迪·朱利安尼只是愚蠢。所以我给这个奖项的名字鲁迪·朱利安尼。而我希望就此作为结尾，我不会为他或他的行为辩护。然而，我确实认为那个判决过于严厉。这是我们看到的荒谬判决的一部分，比如当一个华盛顿特区的陪审团判定一个保守派或共和党人，而他们又不同意他们的政治观点。原告只要求4800万美元，陪审团却判决三倍于此，这是过度判决。我认为几百万美元的处罚金额就足够好，而没有必要让他破产，这就是你们在谈论的一个堆积。我支持大家拿鲁迪开玩笑，直到真正涉及毁掉他的生活的时候，我认为事情已经过了头。是的，这些词真奇怪，它们是多么庞大。虽然这些判决都会上诉，并最终裁决。所以我相信在不久的将来，那个判决会大幅减少。
This has been the year end episode. Can you believe it? We made it another year, guys. Here we are at the end of 2023. We'll do our predictions next week. So you'll get our amazing predictions for 2024 in the next episode. Any closing thoughts on the year we just had Freeburg? How are you feeling here at the end of the year? Are you hopeful? Are you cheery? Are you sad? Are you excited?
这就是年末节目了。你能相信吗？伙计们，我们又度过了一年。现在我们来到了2023年的尽头。我们下周将进行预测。所以你们将在下一集中得到我们关于2024年的惊人预测。费尔伯格，对于刚刚过去的这一年，你有什么总结性的想法吗？你在年底感到希望吗？开心吗？难过吗？兴奋吗？
I've been up since 5am and I just drank beers, so I'm pretty tired. But with respect, that's kind of how the whole year feels actually. Feel like exhausted.
我从早上5点就醒来了，刚刚喝了些啤酒，所以我很疲倦。但老实说，整个年份都感觉如此，感觉筋疲力尽。
Yeah, I just got up early, cranked through the day, had some beer and I'm ready for a nap. But I'm probably more optimistic going into 2024 than I was going into 2023 because that's on a personal basis.
是的，我刚早早起床，一整天都很忙碌，喝了些啤酒后现在想要午睡。但是相比2023年，我对2024年更加乐观，这主要是基于个人的原因。
And I think, yeah, there's just a lot going on today in the world. Yeah, it's complex, isn't it? I do think as long as we embrace the enlightenment and don't embrace the dark ages, we stand a shot at keeping progress alive. And I think that's the defining characteristics of human civilization, its progress. And that's, I think ultimately resolves all the conflicts and other things. We just got to keep it alive.
我想, 是的, 当今世界上发生了许多事情。是的, 这是复杂的, 不是吗？我认为只要我们接受启蒙思想而不走向黑暗时代, 我们就有机会保持进步的活力。我认为这就是人类文明的决定性特征, 就是它的进步。而这, 我认为最终能解决所有的冲突和其他问题。我们只需要保持这一切活力。
Well, Sam, how are you feeling here as we wrap up 2023 and looking into 2024? I think 2022 and 2023 have been looking back the most important two years of my professional career. I think I've benefited like we all, I think all four of us could say this, of just an incredible set of tailwinds and 22 and 23 for the first time where I was in a position of influence and capital and power where I had to confront that those tailwinds can quickly become headwinds and that we are not impervious to them. So I like Reedberg, I'm looking forward to 24 where I can try to put all these learnings to good use. So it's been generally good.
嗯，Sam，我们即将进入2024年，回顾一下2023年，你觉得如何呢？我认为2022年和2023年是我职业生涯中最重要的两年。我认为我从中受益良多，就像我们四个人都可以说的一样，22年和23年我们经历了一系列令人难以置信的有利因素，而这是我第一次处于影响力、资本和权力地位，我不得不面对这些有利因素很快可以变成不利因素，而我们并不是无法被动摇的。所以像里德伯格一样，我期待着2024年，我可以试着把所有这些经验教训发挥到好处。总的来说，一切都还不错。
And 23 was the most important year of my life in the sense that I got remarried. So that's been a huge personal highlight. Yes, beautiful. Love that you guys all came to that as well. That's a highlight for us too. Absolutely beautiful. But yeah, I'm ready to turn the page on this year and start 24.
23岁是我人生中最重要的一年，因为我重新结婚了。那是我个人生活中非常重要的一个亮点。是的，太美好了，我很高兴大家也参加了婚礼。这对我们来说也是一个亮点。真的非常美好。但是，是的，我已经准备好结束这一年，开始24岁的新篇章了。
Sax, any closing dots here? Well, I think one of the biggest surprises of 2023 is that we didn't have a recession. I mean, I think most people were betting on a recession in 23. They thought that a soft landing would be almost impossible. And in fact, the data is that soft landings almost never occur. Remember what Larry Summers said to us at our all-in-summit this year, which is soft landings or like second marriages, it's the triumph of hope over experience, meaning they almost never happen. And so the fact that we didn't get that, I think that was basically a pretty important bullet dodge. Now that being said, I do think that the whole B2B software industry definitely went through a recession. But fortunately, I think we bottomed out and are starting to see green shoots now. So things are returning to normal. On the global stage, things are still okay in the sense that the US is not directly in a war, but man, it is pretty scary. We could be pulled into a very dynamic. It's very dynamic. We could be pulled into a war in the Middle East anytime. We still have a proxy war going in Ukraine. So there are a lot of risks still on the horizon.
Sax,这里有什么结尾的话吗？嗯，我认为2023年最令人惊讶的事情之一是我们没有出现经济衰退。我是说，我认为大多数人都在预测23年会发生经济衰退。他们认为软着陆几乎是不可能的。事实上，据数据显示，软着陆几乎从未发生过。还记得今年我们在全球峰会上，拉里·萨默斯对我们说的话吗？他说软着陆就像再婚一样，是希望战胜经验的胜利，意思是它们几乎从不发生。所以我们没有经历那样的情况，我认为这基本上是一次相当重要的子弹躲避。话虽如此，我认为整个B2B软件行业肯定经历了一次衰退。但幸运的是，我认为我们已经触底并开始看到复苏迹象。所以情况正在恢复正常。在全球舞台上，情况还算好，因为美国没有直接卷入战争，但是唉，它确实非常可怕。我们随时可能被卷入中东的战争。乌克兰仍在进行代理战争。所以未来还存在许多风险。
I'll just say for the gentlemen and for the audience, it has been wonderful to have all of you, the audience, the fans of the show, and you besties in my life. Over two really tough years. It was also very proud of myself going into them. I knew I was built for war and it was a war the last few years. It was difficult. It was hard. But we all, I think, learned a lot and came out stronger because of it. And I just want to give a particular shout out to all of you guys for making this brand extraordinary and taking it to new heights almost all the times I've built things brands and gadget, Silicon Amazingly, and I'm just so excited to see what we do in 2024 with this amazing brand memberships to kill us another 50 episode and a great all-in-signment next year, I hope. So shout out to my guy, Free Bird for the dictator, the Sultan of Science, Chairman Dictator. Sorry, I apologize for getting that correct there. We'll get it right. Chairman Dictator and the Rayman, David Sachs. I am the world's greatest moderator and we will see you in 2024. Bye bye. Happy New Year. Love you guys. Happy New Year, bitches. Bye bye. Happy New Year. Oh man, my eyes are really weak. We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just like this like sexual tension but they just need to release them out. What? You're the big. What? You're the big. What? You're the big. What? We need to get the most. I'm going all-in. I'm going all-in.
我只想对先生们和观众们说，能够拥有你们所有人、观众、节目的粉丝和我生活中最好的朋友们是多么美妙。在这过去的两年中，经历了很多艰难。但我也为自己感到非常骄傲，我知道自己有战斗的能力，这几年确实就像一场战争。困难、艰辛，但我想我们都从中学到了很多，并因此变得更加坚强。我想特别向你们所有人致以崇高的敬意，因为正是你们让这个品牌变得非凡，并将其推向新的高度。几乎每一次我创办品牌和推出新产品，都令人惊叹不已。我非常期待我们在2024年为这个令人惊叹的品牌再制作另外50集，明年也要完成一个伟大的任务。所以向我的朋友Free Bird致以致敬，也向科学的独裁者、主席独裁者道歉，抱歉没有说对。我们会改正过来，主席独裁者和Rayman David Sachs。我是世界上最优秀的主持人，我们将在2024年再见。再见，新年快乐。爱你们，伙计们。新年快乐，各位。再见。新年快乐。哎呀，我的眼睛真的很弱。我们应该大家聚一聚，搞一个大规模的乱交活动，因为大家都有这种性的张力，他们只需要释放出来。什么？你最了解了。什么？你最了解了。什么？我们需要最多的。我决心全力以赴。我全力以赴。