Tesla Energy’s Next Phase, Cybertruck Wrap, Union Efforts

Hey everybody, Rob Maurer here. Happy Friday. Today we've got some updates on the Cyber Truck, of course. We have exciting news on Tesla Energy. We've got a couple of pieces of news on the Swedenite, Swedenite, and I say, it's an effort. The unionization efforts in Sweden, rough start today, and a couple other items as well.

大家好，我是罗布·莫里尔。祝大家周五快乐。今天我们将会更新一些关于Cyber Truck的内容，当然还有关于特斯拉能源的令人兴奋的消息。我们还有关于瑞典的几个消息，我可以说，这是一项努力。瑞典的工会化努力在今天有了一个艰难的开端，还有一些其他的事项。

Alright, looking at the stock, Tesla today down about three quarters of a percent to close at $252.54. And as deck today, up to tens of a percent. So under Performance for Tesla to close out the week. From a macro perspective, we did have the PCE Personal Consumption Expenditures report released this morning, slightly below expectations. So month over month, core PCE increased one tenth of a percent year over year, up 3.2%. So year over year, that was one tenth of a percent lower than expectations. The headline numbers largely in line with expectations. PCE actually did decline one tenth of a percent. Month over month from a headline perspective, so including food and energy, and up 2.6%. The number for PCE that a lot of people have looked at today too is the six month annualized rate, which has now fallen below 2% since the first time for the first time since 2020. So a lot of people excited about that, of course, 2% being the benchmark target for the FOMC.

好的，看看股票情况，特斯拉今天下跌约百分之三四，收盘价为252.54美元。而根据今天的数据，增长了几分之十。所以从特斯拉本周表现来看。从宏观角度来看，我们今天发布了个人消费支出报告，略低于预期。所以从月度角度来看，核心个人消费支出环比增长了百分之一，同比增长了3.2%。所以从同比角度来看，这个数字比预期低了百分之一。总体来说，头条数据与预期基本一致，个人消费支出实际上下降了百分之一。从头条角度来看，包括食品和能源，同比增长了2.6%。今天很多人关注的个人消费支出数字是六个月年化增长率，该数字自2020年以来首次降至2%以下。当然，很多人对此感到兴奋，因为2%是FOMC的基准目标。

In terms of FOMC and interest rate expectations with the PCE report this morning, and of course, some other economic reports, expectations for an interest rate decrease have increased pretty significantly from where they were a week ago, certainly from a day ago as well. So we're looking at the March expectations right now, current rate 525 to 550 basis points. There's only a 7% expectation that rates remain at that level, 0% for increase versus you know, 93% for a rate cut by that point in time. Yesterday that would have been 83% a week ago, that would have been at about 70%. So you can see with the recent news that we've got, including PCE, more expectations for a rate cut, at least by March, and perhaps even in January though, expectations there. If we look quickly at that, are a little bit lower in terms of cutting that early. So obviously the market is going to be happy about rate cuts, depending on what the other context is and that can vary in importance day to day.

就FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）和利率预期以及今早公布的个人消费支出报告以及其他一些经济报告而言，利率降息的预期与一周前相比已经有了相当大的增加，当然，与前一天相比也是如此。目前我们正在关注三月的预期，目前基准利率为525至550个基点。只有7%的人预计利率将保持在当前水平，增加的预期为0%，相比而言，93%的人预计到那个时间点会降息。而昨天这个数字还是83%，一周前大约是70%。因此，你可以看到我们获得的最新消息，包括个人消费支出报告，对于利率降息的预期增加了，至少到三月，甚至可能在一月。如果我们快速看一下，对于提前降息的预期则稍微较低。显然，市场会对降息的消息感到高兴，具体取决于其他的上下文情况，这在日常重要性上可能会有所变化。

Alright, getting into Tesla energy, got an exciting update from CNEV Post and other media today. That Tesla has officially launched its new mega factory project in Shanghai. So you can see the signing ceremony here for the land acquisition for this project for Tesla. This is going to be very similar to the mega factory that Tesla has in Lathrop in California. So the targeted capacity for this is going to, at least initially, who knows longer term, if it could expand, but at least initially 10,000 megapacks a year, right around 40 gigawatt hours a year for energy storage products. So very exciting. This does happen a little bit later than we initially expected. Originally, a construction was expected to begin in the third quarter this year. Obviously now at the end of the fourth quarter, that third quarter date had production lined up for somewhere in the second quarter or so of 2024. So we may be looking at some time in the second half, maybe the third or fourth quarter next year, depending on if they can expediate things and or expedite things and get a little bit closer to maybe that initial target. I wouldn't put it past this project because as we saw with Gigashang High, if there is one place where a factory can ramp up and be constructed very quickly, China seems to be that place. Tesla has experience with the Lathrop Gigafactory already, sorry, the Lathrop mega factory already, and with Gigashang High ramping up a factory in China. So hopefully they've got experience in the two things that are going to be required to build this factory up, which should put things in a good spot. And again, we saw Gigafactory Shanghai ramp up in an incredible quick pace, incredibly quick pace. So hopefully we'll see the same thing with the mega factory here.

好的，进入特斯拉能源领域，今天收到了来自《中国新能源汽车》和其他媒体的令人兴奋的消息。特斯拉正式宣布在上海启动了新的超级工厂项目。你可以在这里看到特斯拉为该项目的土地征收签约仪式。这个工厂将与特斯拉在加利福尼亚拉斯罗普拥有的超级工厂非常相似。因此，初始的产能目标至少是每年10,000个Megapacks，即每年约40GWh的储能产品。非常令人兴奋。不过，这个项目比我们最初预期的要晚一些。最初预计建设将于今年第三季度开始。显然现在是第四季度末，这意味着第三季度的日期已经安排了生产计划，大约在2024年第二季度左右。所以我们可能需要在明年下半年，也许是第三或第四季度，这取决于他们是否能够加快进度接近最初的目标。我认为这个项目能够做到，正如我们在上海超级工厂项目中所见到的，如果有一个地方能够快速扩大工厂并迅速建设，那就是中国。特斯拉已经在拉斯罗普超级工厂和上海超级工厂项目中积累了经验。希望他们在建设这个工厂所需的两个要素上有经验，这将使事情进展顺利。而且，我们目睹了上海超级工厂以惊人的速度扩大规模。所以希望在这个超级工厂项目中也能看到同样的情况。

Now one of the reasons this is so exciting is that we've seen a lot of growth in Tesla energy recently. If we just flash back to the Q3 earnings report here, you can see energy generation and storage revenue over the last six months, $3 billion energy storage deployed in that period of time is about seven and a half gigawatt hours. So we're talking about a 40 gigawatt hour project here, Lathrop being of similar size. This annualizes out right now to about $6 billion a year and also about 15 gigawatt hours in terms of energy storage deployed.

现在这个消息的激动人心之处之一是，我们最近在特斯拉能源方面看到了很大的增长。如果我们回顾一下第三季度的财报，你会发现在过去的六个月内，能源发电和存储的收入为30亿美元，这段时间内部署的能源存储量约为7.5千兆瓦小时。所以我们在这里谈论的是一个40千兆瓦小时的项目，拉斯罗普的规模也相似。以目前的情况来看，这相当于每年60亿美元的收入，以及部署的能源存储量约为15千兆瓦小时。

So if we're talking about 40 plus 40 from these other two factories or at 80 gigawatt hours, we could be looking at five times the capacity that Tesla is putting in place right now over their current run rate, which that should be online and sort of the next, I would say 18 to 24 months or so, depending again on how quickly Tesla can ramp up. So for them to be implementing this on the business that's already growing incredibly quickly, you can see the 40% growth rate year over year for Q3 in revenue. And this has now started to contribute significantly to Tesla's earnings with gross margin on this business line actually exceeding automotive. So tons to be excited about what Tesla energy right now. And hopefully we'll see this ramp up quickly like we saw with gigashang high.

所以，如果我们谈论这两家其他工厂产生的40加40，或者说80千兆瓦小时，那么我们可能会看到特斯拉目前正在建设的容量的五倍，这应该会在接下来的18至24个月内运营，并且这还取决于特斯拉能够多快地提高产能。因此，对于他们在已经以惊人速度增长的业务中实施这一举措，我们可以看到特斯拉三季度收入同比增长40％。这现在已经开始显著贡献于特斯拉的利润，并且这一业务线的毛利润实际上超过了汽车业务。对于特斯拉能源，有许多令人兴奋的事情。希望我们能像看到千兆瓦高那样迅速启动此项目。

All right, moving on, we'll get our daily Cybertruck updates in here. We've got an update from Joe Tagmire, did the drone flyer for today and another new record for vehicles or Cybertruck vehicles spotted at Giga Texas. He saw more than 80 at the factory today. So really exciting to see all these. Hopefully again alludes to progress in the ramp. About 40 of these have been added since maybe yesterday. It doesn't necessarily mean the daily production rate is 40. Maybe that could be a peak or a burst rate where they're doing 40 and then adjust some things and then a couple days of downtime, maybe 40 again or maybe 50 after that. Hopefully we see this ramp quickly. Just want to keep expectations and check to as we do see these numbers increase and it could be a matter of relocating things. Maybe there are Cybertrucks in the factory that then get moved outside that weren't necessarily produced that exact last day. So we'll be hopeful, but also keep those things in mind when we see things like this as well.

好的，继续，我们将在这里获取我们每日的Cybertruck更新。我们收到了来自Joe Tagmire的更新，他是今天的无人机飞行员，再次刷新了在德克萨斯Giga工厂发现的车辆或Cybertruck车辆的记录。他今天在工厂里看到了80多辆。非常令人兴奋能看到这么多。希望这再次暗示了生产进展。自昨天以来已经增加了大约40辆，但这并不一定意味着日产量是40辆。可能这些是峰值产量或冲刺阶段，他们会做40辆，然后调整一些工艺，然后停产几天，之后可能再次达到40辆或50辆。希望我们能迅速看到产量增长。只是想保持期望值，并在看到这些数字增长时记住，这可能涉及重新安置事物。也许工厂内有一些Cybertruck然后被移出去，而实际上它们并不是刚刚生产出来的。所以我们要保持希望，但也要记住看到这些情况时要考虑这些因素。

We also saw the completion of what I believe is probably the first aftermarket wrap for the Cybertruck. We've seen Tesla's matte black version. I don't think we've seen the white one yet, but here we've got a pine green metallic from Tesbro. So one of these first deliveries that they have completed the wrap on just gave us a few images of that today. I don't think we've seen this color. Of course, you know, from any of the Tesla prototypes and kind of exciting just to see customers get their hands on these and start making adjustments and customizing them a little bit, which we should see a lot of with the Cybertruck. So fun to see that. They also gave a little bit of a demo of the front camera washing system on the Cybertruck. So we can get a little bit of a shot of that, which I think is, you know, something that is going to be very important, especially if you're doing things like off-roading in the Cybertruck with that location, that's likely to be put to get a use. So nice to see that in action.

我们还看到了我相信可能是Cybertruck的第一个售后贴膜完成。我们已经见过特斯拉的亚光黑版本。我想白色版本我们还没有看到过，但是这里有一辆来自Tesbro的松绿金属车身贴膜版。所以他们第一批完成贴膜的交付车辆今天给我们展示了几张照片。我想我们还没有见过这种颜色，当然，从特斯拉的任何一个原型车上都没有看到过。看到顾客拿到这些车并开始进行调整和个性化定制，这是令人兴奋的，特别是对于Cybertruck，我们应该会看到很多这样的情况。所以很高兴能看到这样的情况。他们还展示了Cybertruck前部摄像头的清洗系统。所以我们可以看到它的效果，我认为这是非常重要的，特别是如果你在Cybertruck上进行越野等活动时，它的位置很容易沾染污垢。很高兴能看到这个系统的效果。

All right. Next couple of things. We've got an update from not a Tesla app here on X saying that Tesla has added a new feature, software feature in China, which is a traffic light countdown. So my interpretation of this is that if you're at a stoplight, you now see a countdown for when that stoplight is going to change. Apparently, this comes from government provided data where they've got this, that information available that can be received by the car and shown on the display. So a nice feature, obviously reliance on that data. So it's going to be localized in only regions that would offer that, of course, but still kind of nice to see. Of course, reminds me of, you know, pedestrian walking timers and things like that that are pretty competently steer in the United States. So not the biggest game changing feature, but still nice to have.

好的，下面是我们的几个新事物。我们从一个非特斯拉应用程序获得了更新消息，据说特斯拉在中国推出了一个新的软件功能，即交通信号倒计时。我理解的是，如果你停在红绿灯前，现在你可以看到一个倒计时，显示红绿灯将要改变的时间。显然，这是来自政府提供的数据，这些数据可以被车辆接收并显示在仪表盘上。这是一个不错的功能，当然它只在能够提供这些数据的地区实施，但依然很不错。当然，这让我想起了美国的人行横道计时器等一些相当完善的设施。虽然这不是最重大的改变游戏规则的功能，但还是很好用。

We've also got another recall here. Quote unquote recall. This is 120,000 model S next vehicles. This is another software update though. So nothing of significance, but it relates to a cabin door latching mechanism that's later or that inadvertently excluded block out functionality in the case of a crash, which may have increased the risk of injury during a crash. So Tesla diagnosed that themselves and is pushing this over the air update as well. So again, nothing major, but some more recall headlines today.

我们这里还有一个召回案。引号中的召回。这是12万辆Model S下一代车辆。尽管这是另一个软件更新，但并无重大问题，只是与车厢门锁紧机构有关，该机构在事故发生时会无意中排除对嵌块的功能，可能会增加事故期间受伤的风险。因此，特斯拉自己进行了诊断，并进行了空中更新。所以再次强调，这并非重大问题，但今天又有一些召回新闻。

All right, the last couple of things. We've got two updates here on the unionization efforts in Sweden. Got it right that time. This one is from Bloomberg. They say that Tesla has lost an appeal in Sweden against the country's postal service. They can not it's been confirmed by the court, at least for this period of time, that they cannot receive license plates intended for new EVs or rather, they can't force the post office to give them those things.

好的，最后几件事。我们在瑞典的工会化努力方面有两个更新。这次我没有说错。这个消息来自彭博社。他们称特斯拉在瑞典对国家邮政服务机构的上诉案中败诉。法院已经确认，至少在这段时间内，他们不能收到为新的电动汽车提供的车牌，或者说，他们不能强迫邮局提供这些东西。

So as we see here, postal workers in Sweden are refusing to handle any Tesla related mail, which would include license plates. So that complicates things for Tesla. They've tried to circumvent that in other ways, but there were there have been rulings against Tesla being able to directly pick up those plates as well, which they're continuing to challenge.

正所谓一图胜千言，瑞典的邮政工作者拒绝处理任何与特斯拉相关的邮件，包括车牌的邮件。这给特斯拉带来了困难。他们已经尝试通过其他途径绕过此问题，但对于特斯拉能否直接领取这些车牌也存在裁决，他们仍在继续争取。

This particular court ruling is also something that can be appealed, which Tesla has until January 18 to do. And I'm sure they will pursue that option. So we'll keep an eye on it, but not in favor of Tesla at that point.

这个特定的法庭裁决也是可以上诉的，特斯拉可以在1月18日前行使这个选项。我相信他们会继续追求这个选择。所以我们会继续关注这件事，但对特斯拉来说可能并不是有利的。

Someone on the other side, we've got a response from the BA. I'm not going to try to pronounce that. You can see it there. This is essentially the counterparty to the Swedish Swedish Transport Workers Union. So this represents this group represents the employer side. They have sent a notice of objection to the Swedish, the Swedish Transport Workers Union's efforts for a sympathy strike. If I can get all those words in there.

在另一方面，我们收到了BA的回应。我不打算尝试念出那个名字。你可以在这里看到它。这本质上是瑞典运输工人工会的对立方。这个团体代表雇主方。他们向瑞典运输工人工会提出了一份反对通知，反对他们发起的同情罢工。如果我能把所有这些词都表达出来的话。

They are basically saying that the criticism is unclear, difficult to understand as a whole and potentially impacts other companies or businesses that would be outside of the dispute, which would of course be with Tesla. So they are right now saying that this is something that should not be occurring.

基本上，他们是在说这些批评不明确，整体上难以理解，并且可能对其他与特斯拉无关的公司或企业产生影响。因此，他们现在认为这是不应该发生的事情。

I don't know how much sort of leverage or authority they have regarding the Swedish Transport Workers Union. So if someone in the comments can fill in any gaps on that, that would be helpful. But it does sound like at least it's a decent amount of, you know, leverage or sway that they would have.

我不知道他们在瑞典交通工会方面具有多少杠杆或权威。所以，如果评论区有人能填补这方面的空白，那将非常有帮助。不过，听起来至少他们具有相当大的杠杆力量或影响力。

So again, we'll continue to keep it on this as the situation evolves. We're right around that timeline where a lot of these sympathy strikes were set to go into action. So we'll see.

因此，在情况发展的过程中，我们将继续密切关注这一情况。我们正处在这些同情罢工计划行动准备开始的时间范围。所以我们会拭目以待。

All right. Last couple of things. Cummins has agreed to pay a $1.675 billion penalty relating to truck engine emission defeat devices. So we've heard a lot about these in, you know, a couple of years prior to now, but these settlements, you know, these penalty agreements still coming in. Cummins being the latest one. This was for 630,000 ram vehicles from 2013 to 2019, which had defeat devices controlled on them to essentially under report emissions on emissions tests.

好的。最后还有几件事情。康明斯同意支付16.75亿美元的罚款，涉及卡车发动机尾气排放作弊装置。所以在这之前我们已经听到了很多关于这方面的消息，但这些和解协议、罚款协议仍在持续出现。康明斯成为了最新一个。这次涉及到的是2013年至2019年共有63万辆道奇卡车，它们搭载了可以控制尾气排放的作弊装置，以在排放测试中低报排放数据。

They did say as a part of this agreement that the company has seen no evidence that anyone acted in bad faith and does not admit any wrongdoing. So of course they're going to say that from a legal perspective. It's a bold claim though.

他们确实作为协议的一部分表示，公司没有看到任何人以恶意行事的证据，也不承认任何不当行为。当然，从法律的角度来看，他们会这样说。不过，这是一个大胆的声明。

And then as we wrap up for the week, just a quick look at the calendar for next week. Of course, we've got Christmas on Monday. So happy holidays to everybody as we go into next week. Not too much action in terms of economic reporting should be a relatively quiet week. My schedule personally is going to be a little bit up in the air. So I'm not 100% percent sure what it's going to look like yet. Probably be an episode on Tuesday or Wednesday. And I think we'll kind of go from there. But again, thanks for just bearing with me through as I kind of figure out my schedule. I appreciate that. But that'll wrap it up for today and for the week. So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you at some point next week for the next episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

下周有圣诞节，所以祝大家假期快乐。经济报告方面不会有太多动态，下周应该是相对平静的一周。个人的日程可能会有些不确定，所以我还不能百分之百确定下周的日程安排。可能会在周二或周三出一集新的节目。再次感谢大家一直以来对我日程安排的谅解，我非常感激。今天的节目到此结束。感谢大家的收听。记得订阅并打开通知，还可以在X平台找到我的特斯拉播客。我们下周某个时候再见，将继续下一集的特斯拉日报。谢谢大家。