Tesla Charging Set to Dominate, Strong China Sales, Factory Updates

Hey everybody Rob Manward here and today we've got some big updates on Tesla charging, also really strong China sales, some interesting job listings for Tesla and more.

大家好，我是罗布·曼华德。今天我们将为大家带来一些关于特斯拉充电的重要更新，还有中国市场销售的强劲势头，一些有趣的特斯拉职位招聘信息等等。

Better day for Tesla stock today, finishing up 2% to close to $257.22, the Nasdaq up to 3rds of a percent on the day today.

今天是特斯拉股票的好日子，收盘上涨2%，接近257.22美元，纳斯达克指数当天上涨了三分之一。

Alright, we'll start off with a couple of quick cyber truck updates we talked yesterday about how over the weekend Tesla had opened up more order invitations for the cyber truck and then those order invitations were shortly thereafter closed for some people that didn't act quickly. Looks like those have now been opened back up at least to some extent, with some reservation holders able to confirm orders today. The cyber truck owners club tracking sheet that we talked about yesterday, which had 172 entries at the time, is now up to 183.

好的，我们先从一些快速的Cybertruck更新开始，我们昨天谈到特斯拉在周末开放了更多的Cybertruck订单邀请，并且随后关闭了一些没有迅速行动的人的订单邀请。看起来现在这些订单邀请已经在一定程度上重新开放，一些预订持有人今天已经能够确认订单。我们昨天谈到的Cybertruck车主俱乐部追踪表格，在那个时候有172条记录，现在已经增加到183条。

Pretty small increase so far, so not a huge number of people likely able to convert on those orders today, but nevertheless worth checking the accounts, just in case you are able to order.

到目前为止增幅相当小，因此可能有能够在今天转化这些订单的人数并不是很多，但是还是值得检查一下账户，以防你能下单。

Yesterday we also talked about Lars' comments about potentially being able to convert the cyber truck into something that could operate at least for a short period of time as a boat. Elon yesterday commented on this on X, saying that quote, we are going to offer a mod package that enables cyber truck to traverse at least 100 meters of water as a boat, mostly just need to upgrade cabin door seals. With the cyber truck now in production it seems like that aspiration that Elon has held for quite some time remains. Of course no timeline given here by Elon. But the language is also not hedged at all saying that we're going to look at it or we're likely going to do it. He just says we are going to do it. So we'll see obviously that would add to the lower of the cyber truck and I suppose be helpful in a post-apocalyptic scenario. I'm not sure how much real world appeal it has day to day, but hey, it's interesting and if they can do it with relatively little work then I suppose why not. As Elon has said many times it can't just be about solving hard problems all the time there's got to be some fun too.

昨天我们还讨论了拉斯关于将Cybertruck改装成至少能在短时间内作为船只运行的可能性的评论。埃隆昨天在X上对此发表了评论，他说：“我们将提供一个改装套件，使得Cybertruck能够像一艘船一样在水中行驶至少100米，主要只需要升级驾驶舱门密封件。”由于Cybertruck现在已经开始生产，似乎埃隆一直以来的这个愿望仍然存在。当然埃隆在这里没有给出时间表。但语言也没有任何不确定性，只是说我们将会做到。所以我们会看到，显然这将增加Cybertruck的吸引力，并且在末日后的情景中可能有些帮助。我不确定它在日常生活中有多大的实际吸引力，但嘿，这很有意思，如果他们在相对较少的工作量下能够实现，为什么不呢。正如埃隆多次说过的，生活不仅仅要解决困难的问题，也要有一些乐趣。

Okay, moving on from the cyber truck we've got new China insured vehicle numbers for the week. This is the 11th week of the quarter and this week there were 18,003 people who were 300 Tesla's insured in China. This is the second best number this year. A very strong number as we head into the final two weeks of the quarter. This moves the quarter to date figure through 11 weeks to 138,200 extending the quarter to date lead from previous quarter to date. This is 15% above Q3, 10% above Q2 which ended up being the record so far and 29% above Q1. To surpass that Q2 record Tesla needs about 22,000 more in the last two weeks or about 11,000 per week based off of the last few weeks. Of course this looks very achievable. Model Y continues to do very well most of this number being Model Y only 3900 Model 3 so we've continued to see that be quite a bit below the production capacity of Giga Shanghai with a large portion of highland production being exported. So the possibility of even higher weekly numbers than this is certainly there just depends on Tesla's allocation strategy. In any case nice to see these strong numbers in China.

好的，离开了赛博卡车的话题，我们有了中国新的保险车辆数量数据，这是第11周，有18,003人投保了300辆特斯拉汽车。这是今年第二好的数字。作为本季度最后两周的开始，这个数字非常强劲。截至目前，本季度的数字已经达到138,200辆，相比上一季度同期有了领先，较Q3增长15%，较Q2增长10%（Q2创下目前为止的纪录），较Q1增长29%。为了超过Q2的记录，特斯拉在最后两周需要增加大约22,000辆汽车，或每周增加约11,000辆，根据过去几周的数据看，这显然是可以实现的。Model Y仍然表现非常好，其中绝大部分数量是Model Y，只有3900辆是Model 3，所以我们仍然看到这个数字远远低于上海超级工厂的生产能力，而高端车型主要是用于出口。因此，实现比这个更高的每周数字的可能性确实存在，这只取决于特斯拉的分配策略。无论如何，在中国看到这些强劲的数字真是令人欣慰。

Alright next up we've got a few charging updates the first of which is Volkswagen announcing that they have finally capitulated and they are going to be adopting the North American charging standard. This will apply to the Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche and Scout motor brands beginning in 2025.

好的，接下来我们有一些关于充电更新的消息。首先，大众宣布他们最终屈服，将采用北美充电标准。这一变化将从2025年开始适用于大众、奥迪、保时捷和斯柯达等汽车品牌。

Some of these announcements from other automakers have said that in partnership with Tesla they'll be offering an adapter for vehicles that were produced prior to the switch to NACS. This announcement a little bit different says Volkswagen is exploring adapter solutions for existing vehicles to access the Tesla Supercharging Network starting in 2025. So unlike some of the previous announcements it sounds like that adapter piece isn't quite locked in yet for Volkswagen.

其他汽车制造商的一些公告称，他们将与特斯拉合作，为在转向NACS之前生产的车辆提供适配器。然而，大众发布的这则公告略有不同，它表示大众正在探索适配器解决方案，从2025年开始，为现有车辆提供接入特斯拉超级充电网络的可能性。所以与之前的一些公告不同的是，对于大众而言，适配器部分似乎还没有最终确定。

With this announcement Rebecca Tenucci of Tesla's charging team said quote earlier this year the North American charging standard was just an idea. Today with the VW Group's commitment almost every major automotive manufacturer is on board rallying behind a shared vision of improving charging experiences for all EV drivers. This is only the beginning of our industry wide efforts to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. I agree that there's a lot more to be excited about with charging in the future and we'll talk more about that in a second.

在这一宣布中，特斯拉的充电团队成员丽贝卡·特努奇表示：“今年早些时候，北美充电标准只是一个想法。如今，几乎每个主要的汽车制造商都积极支持这一想法，并团结在一起，共同改善所有电动汽车驾驶员的充电体验。”这只是我们全行业为推动世界向可持续能源的转型所做的努力的开始。我同意未来充电领域还有很多令人兴奋的事情，并且接下来我们将进一步探讨这些内容。

But in terms of NACS adoption in North America this was really the last automaker to fall. We still have stellantis as one hold out but Volkswagen was by far the biggest one remaining. It'd be pretty nonsensical for stellantis to not adopt it at this point. So very exciting to see NACS truly now adopted as the standard and hopefully some of the funding requirements that at least in some states have pretty much required CCS to also be included in charging infrastructure build out can react properly to this change and drop those types of requirements.

但在北美地区，就NACS的采用而言，这真的是最后一家汽车制造商妥协的。我们还有斯泰兰蒂斯(Sellantis)坚持不采用，但大众汽车是迄今为止最大的一家仍未采用的汽车制造商。斯泰兰蒂斯现在不采用将是非常荒谬的。因此，非常令人兴奋地看到NACS真正成为标准，希望一些资金要求能适应这一变化，并放弃那些在某些州几乎要求充电基础设施建设中同时包含CCS的要求。

Also importantly on this topic today we had hinted at this coming a couple of days ago but SAE formerly the Society of Automotive Engineers now just SAE International announced today that they've released the technical information report or TIR for the SAE standard covering development and implementation of NACS. They say the release of this TIR means certain critical engineering and development parameters have been established to allow developers to proceed with certainty about many critical aspects of deployment and commercialization of the NACS connector. So any third parties should now be fully equipped to use NACS however they see fit. A couple of very big milestones to that.

今天关于这个话题，重要的是我们在几天前就已经暗示过了，但是国际汽车工程师学会（SAE，原美国汽车工程学会）宣布，他们今天发布了有关新型充电器连接标准（NACS）的技术信息报告（TIR）。他们表示，发布这个TIR意味着已经确立了某些重要的工程和开发参数，使得开发者可以在部署和商业化NACS连接器的许多关键方面有所确定。因此，任何第三方现在都可以完全自由地使用NACS。其中有两个非常重要的里程碑。

Now outside the US we've got a report from Tesla Roddy that Tesla has started to offer supercharging to non-Tesla EVs in Ireland, Romania and Hungary. Like we have seen in other regions it isn't every single supercharger and Tesla supercharger map isn't fully up to date yet but at some point it will be and that is a good spot to check for which of these would be accessible by third party vehicles.

现在在美国以外的地方，我们从特斯拉罗迪的报告中得知，特斯拉已开始在爱尔兰、罗马尼亚和匈牙利为非特斯拉电动车提供超级充电。就像我们在其他地区看到的一样，并不是每个超级充电站都提供此服务，而且特斯拉的超级充电地图尚未完全更新，但是在某个时间点它会更新，那是一个好地方来查看哪些超级充电站可以被第三方车辆使用。

Alright the last update today on charging quite a handful here but the last one comes from a job listing from Tesla, Alexander Murs on X found a couple of these that were pretty interesting today. The first is for a senior business development manager for charging which will be responsible according to Tesla for scaling a business to business hardware sales program in North America within the charging organization. Tesla says that as the business development manager you will enable tremendous growth of the EV charging market working with top executives at Fortune 500 companies across a large range of industries. In just the last few months we've seen partnerships with BP, with Hilton, with Best Western. This hasn't received a whole lot of attention but Tesla's ambitions here are becoming quite clear and this assists with that clarity as it seems like Tesla is trying to greatly grow these types of partnerships and massively increase charging availability. With NACS becoming the standard in North America this will be great for all future EV owners. So really a lot to be excited about right now with charging.

好的，今天关于充电这个话题的最后一个更新相当重要，但最后一项来自于特斯拉的招聘信息。亚历山大·穆尔斯在X发现了一些相当有趣的信息。第一项是招聘一位高级商务拓展经理，该经理将负责在充电组织内推动北美的企业间硬件销售项目的规模化发展。特斯拉表示，作为商务拓展经理，您将与财富500强中的高管们合作，推动电动车充电市场的快速增长，并覆盖多个行业。在过去几个月中，我们见证了特斯拉与英国石油、希尔顿和百时佳等公司建立了合作伙伴关系。这并没有受到太多关注，但特斯拉在这方面的野心正在变得越来越明显，这项职位正是为实现这一野心服务的，看起来特斯拉正努力扩大这类合作伙伴关系，并大幅增加充电设施的普及。随着北美快速充电标准的确立，这将对所有未来的电动车车主都是极大的利好消息。所以从充电方面来说，现在有很多令人兴奋的事情。

The other job listing that was pointed out was a listing for Tesla in Mexico. Tesla's got a listing for an indirect procurement manager in the category of construction and facilities which they say they're looking to hire to execute the infrastructure development sourcing strategy for the new plant located in Santa Catarina, Neway Bullyone.

被提及的另一份工作招聘是关于特斯拉在墨西哥的招聘信息。特斯拉正开设一份招聘职位，需要一名间接采购经理，负责建筑和设施类别方面的工作。他们表示，他们希望雇佣该职位的人员来执行位于新瓜拔隆（Santa Catarina, Neway Bullyone）的新工厂基础设施发展采购策略。

I think any signs of life for Gigamexco always welcome. We do have another report on Gigamexco today from Millennio. They were covering comments from Governor Samuel Garcia who we often hear from. There were some general comments about the incentives for infrastructure that we had recently talked about. Basically him just saying that they'll have a positive return on investment and that these incentives were very favorable compared to some other projects in the area in the past.

我认为对于Gigamexco的任何生机迹象都是受欢迎的。今天我们从Millennio获得另一份关于Gigamexco的报道。他们报道了我们经常听到的州长Samuel García的评论。他对我们最近讨论过的基础设施激励措施进行了一些一般性的评论。基本上，他只是表示他们将会有一个积极的投资回报，并且与该地区过去的一些项目相比，这些激励措施非常有利。

Garcia saying that Tesla told them that they don't want gifts like the previous company they just want help with infrastructure. So with those incentives that's what we highlighted as being more important than the actual dollar value is the commitment to getting that infrastructure built because that's a fundamental need of course for the factory as opposed to capital which Tesla can provide themselves.

加西亚表示，特斯拉告诉他们，他们不想要像之前的公司那样收到礼物，只是希望得到基础设施上的帮助。所以在这些激励措施中，我们强调的重点并不是实际金额，而是致力于建设基础设施的承诺，因为这对工厂来说是一个基本需求，而不是特斯拉自己可以提供的资金。

Garcia also commented somewhat separately quote we are not sure about the scope of each of the works because every meeting we have with Tesla makes us see that the amount they told us is going to be far below the real amount. The implication there is that each time they discuss things with Tesla the plans for the factories seem to grow bigger. We'd probably need a little bit more context to understand the meaningfulness of that we already know Gigamexco is always kind of planned to be a huge factory. I think the timeline is probably more important to most than the ultimate end state size. Those longer term plans can very much change at any time for a large number of reasons. So I'm not putting a ton of weight in that comment specifically and then Garcia also added that quote the size of the factory that they told us is going to be double or triple and that not only will it produce the new Tesla designed economic car but the cyber truck probably another production line for the Y and batteries end quote.

Garcia还单独评价道，我们对每个工厂的规模都不确定，因为每次与特斯拉的会议都让我们感觉他们告诉我们的数量远远低于实际数量。这暗示着每次讨论工厂事宜时，计划似乎都在扩大。要理解这段话的意义，可能需要更多的背景信息。我认为时间表对大多数人可能更重要，而不是最终的规模。这些长期计划可能因为很多原因而随时发生变化。所以我对这个评论并不是特别重视。然后Garcia还补充说，他们告诉我们的工厂规模将会翻倍或者翻三倍，不仅会生产新的特斯拉设计的经济车，还可能为Y型号和电池提供另一条生产线。

So we talked about the cyber truck part of that before Garcia had posted on Instagram hinting to the cyber truck being eventually produced at Gigamexco but that post was the lead in. So I also didn't put too much weight in that but now this seems to be doubling down on kind of that same comment which I continue to think doesn't really make a whole lot of sense as this is very close in proximity to Gigat's access and especially with the cyber truck at least initially being a more expensive vehicle it's hard to see a case for that but I guess we'll see even for the model why I think that would apply a little bit but certainly the next generation vehicle and batteries make a lot of sense.

所以我们之前谈到了关于Cybertruck的部分，加西亚之前在Instagram上发布了关于Cybertruck最终将在吉卡梅克斯科生产的提示，但那篇帖子仅仅是铺垫而已。所以我也没有太过重视那个提示，但现在看来似乎强调了同样的评论，而我继续认为这不太合乎逻辑，因为这个地方离Gigat的入口非常近，而且至少起初，Cybertruck是一款更昂贵的车型，很难看出这种情况存在的理由。但我猜我们会看到即使是对于Model，我也认为这个观点适用一点，但肯定的是下一代车辆和电池是非常有道理的。

Another factory update here CNBC is reporting that Tesla hourly workers at Gigamexco have been informed that they will be receiving a roughly 10% increase in pay beginning in January. In some cases the increase is even larger. I'd imagine that we'll probably see similar actions at other Tesla factories I think we've already heard similar reports for Gigapirlin of course pretty normal to increase compensation over time and this year we have the added effect of the UAW contract we negotiations which I think most would expect would probably at least have some impact on non unionized automakers as well.

另一个工厂的最新消息，CNBC报道称，特斯拉吉加中国工厂的计时工人已被告知从明年起将获得大约10%的工资增长。在某些情况下，这个增长甚至更大。我想大概我们可能会在其他特斯拉工厂看到类似的举措，毕竟随着时间的推移增加补偿待遇是相当正常的，而今年我们还有UAW合同谈判的影响，我认为大多数人都会预料这至少会对非工会化的汽车制造商产生一些影响。

Alright last couple of things for today there was a report from Lendingtree that got some media coverage with headlines that Tesla vehicles have the highest accident rates of any brand. That headline picked up a lot of places but we'll look at Lendingtree's report directly. They say that quote Tesla drivers have the highest accident rate compared with all the brands analyzed during the periods analyzed Tesla drivers had 23.54 accidents per 1000 drivers Ram and Subaru were the only other brands with accident rates over 20 per 1000 drivers.

今天最后还有几件事情。Lendingtree发布了一份报告，该报告得到了媒体的关注，标题说特斯拉的车辆事故率是所有品牌中最高的。这个标题在很多地方都被引用，但我们需要直接看一下Lendingtree的报告。他们表示：“相对于分析期间分析的所有品牌，特斯拉的驾驶员事故率最高，每1000名驾驶员有23.54起事故。其他只有拉姆和斯巴鲁两个品牌的事故率也超过了每1000名驾驶员20起。”

So kind of interesting I guess you could speculate a number of reasons on why that might be the case but if we look at how this data was collected that's also important to pay attention to it says researchers analyzed tens of millions of quote wizard by Lendingtree insurance quotes from November of 2022 through November of 2023.

这个有点有趣，我猜你可以推测出很多可能的原因，但是如果我们看看这些数据是如何收集的，这也很重要。据说研究人员分析了从2022年11月到2023年11月期间收集的数千万个来自Lendingtree的“引用向导”保险报价。

So this is using accident data from people that are shopping for insurance policies on Lendingtree which may not be a representative sample for any number of reasons I can think of one big one Tesla insurance which would maybe filter out people that are in fewer accidents they're likely to have a lower rate with Tesla insurance and therefore probably less likely to be shopping for another insurance policy vice versa those with higher accident rates may be more likely to be looking since Tesla insurance presumably would be more expensive for them.

这是使用来自在Lendingtree购买保险政策的人的事故数据，但由于多种原因，这些数据可能不具有代表性。我可以想到一个很大的原因是特斯拉保险，这可能会筛选掉那些发生事故较少、有着较低特斯拉保险费率的人，因此他们可能不太可能再购买其他保险政策。相反，那些事故率较高的人可能更有可能寻找新的保险政策，因为特斯拉保险对他们来说可能更加昂贵。

That's just one item Sentry Mode could be a factor here too where for another brand if you don't have something captured on Sentry Mode maybe you don't report it and go through the hassle of insurance and the possible raised rates on future insurance quotes like we may be seeing here you might be more likely to get it repaired yourself versus if you have something that was caught on Sentry Mode well then you're probably more likely to be filing a claim and going through that process. These are just a couple of examples of things that could skew this there's also no accounting for number of miles driven this is just per 1000 drivers if Tesla vehicles are being driven more than average which we have some indication of from Tesla's impact report then of course there's a higher opportunity for a driver to be in an accident. So already a number of factors there that could influence this in a higher direction enough problems I think with this that it's not really something worth paying much attention to in my opinion certainly nothing more than just kind of saying oh well that's interesting and moving on from there.

这只是Sentry模式可能会成为一个因素的一个例子。对于其他品牌来说，如果你没有在Sentry模式下捕捉到什么，也许你不会报告它，也不会为了保险而麻烦，也不会在未来的保险报价上可能提高费率，就像我们在这里可能看到的那样，你可能更有可能自行修复车辆，而不是如果你有一些被Sentry模式捕捉到的东西，那么你很可能会提出索赔并经历这个过程。这只是一些可能会影响结果的例子，还有没有考虑到驾驶里程数，这只是每1000名驾驶员的数据，如果特斯拉车辆的行驶里程超过了平均水平，我们在特斯拉的影响报告中有一些迹象，那么驾驶员发生事故的机会当然更高。总之，这已经有了许多可能会使结果朝着更高方向倾斜的因素，我认为这不值得过多关注，仅仅是说一声：“嗯，有趣”，然后继续前行。

Unfortunately the media is going to want to present it in a way that makes it seem like oh there's just something inherent about Tesla vehicles that causes them to be in more accidents without taking a moment to even consider let alone acknowledge some of these other things. Anyway last item for today Bloomberg is reporting that Audi is scaling back on some of their electric vehicle rollout plans in what Bloomberg describes as an effort to avoid burdening factories and dealers amid slower growth rates in EV sales. They got a comment from Audi's new CEO which said quote we first looked at what order and density of launches the organization could handle in the end we decided to spread it out to not overwhelm the team and the dealerships end quote.

不幸的是，媒体往往倾向于以一种让人误以为特斯拉汽车固有缺陷导致更多事故的方式来呈现，而不愿花时间去思考，更不用说承认其他一些因素了。今天的最后一条消息是，彭博社报道称，奥迪正在缩减一些电动车推出计划，这是为了避免给工厂和经销商带来负担，因为电动车销售增长率较慢。他们从奥迪新任首席执行官那里得到了一句评论，他说：“我们首先考虑了组织能够承担的推出顺序和密度，最后我们决定将其分散开来，以避免对团队和经销商造成压力。”

So unsurprisingly and like we have heard from others less aggressive EV plans which maybe is beneficial for them in the short term but I think longer term is going to present a significant challenge in terms of getting to competitive scale and profitability. Alright that'll close it out for today as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications and also find me on X at Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Wednesday December 20th episode of Tesla daily thank you.

所以，并不令人意外的是，正如我们从其他人那听到的那样，对于一些不那么具有侵略性的电动汽车计划可能在短期内对它们有益，但我认为从长远来看，这将对实现竞争规模和盈利能力构成重大挑战。好的，今天就到这里吧，感谢您的倾听，确保您已订阅并设定了通知，还可以在X上找到我，进行特斯拉播客，我们明天见，在12月20日星期三的特斯拉日报中，谢谢。