Markets Weekly December 16, 2023
发布时间 2023-12-16 19:50:44 来源
摘要
Asset prices set to surge Everyone out hawking the Fed "Excess Wealth" is more important than excess savings 00:00 - Intro 1:13 ...
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中英文字稿 
Hello, my friends. Today is December 16th, and this is Markets Weekly. What a week, right? What a week.
大家好，朋友们。今天是12月16日，欢迎来到《市场每周》。这是多么不寻常的一周啊，不是吗？真是不可思议的一周。
So the headline act the past week was obviously the Jay Powell show. We've already discussed that. So now we're going to talk about three other things that happened this week.
上周的焦点当然是杰伊·鲍威尔秀。我们已经讨论过了。现在我们要谈谈本周发生的其他三件事。
First, let's talk about how a quote unquote Fed pivot is filtering through the markets and how it might impact the real economy.
首先，让我们来讨论一下所谓的联邦储备委员会（Fed）政策转变是如何影响市场并可能对实体经济产生的影响。
Secondly, now Jay Powell was without doubt the headline act this past week, but he wasn't the only one. We also got meetings from the ECB and the Bank of England. And it seems like everyone in the world is out hawking the Fed. Let's see what the other central banks said.
其次，本周杰鲍威尔无疑是头条人物，但他并非唯一一位。欧洲央行和英国银行也举行了会议。而且似乎全世界都在对美联储提供意见。让我们看看其他央行都说了些什么。
And lastly, we got some new research from the Fed about excess savings. Now, many people have been pointing out that there might be some quote unquote excess pandemic era savings that have been supporting consumer spending. Let's talk about that concept, what the work says, and why I think the excess savings concept is complete nonsense.
最后，我们从美联储获得了一些关于过剩储蓄的新研究。现在，许多人一直在指出可能存在一些所谓的过剩疫情时期的储蓄，这些储蓄一直在支持消费支出。让我们来谈谈这个概念，这项研究的结论，以及为什么我认为过剩储蓄的概念完全是无稽之谈。
Okay, starting with the markets. So heading into the Fed meeting, the markets were pricing in about four rate cuts next year after the beating the market is pricing in about six rate cuts next year.
好的，从市场开始。进入联邦储备会议之前，市场定价预计明年会有大约四次降息，但在市场遭受重击后，市场正在定价明年会有约六次降息。
Now, the way that the Fed influences markets is of course through interest rate policy. The Fed can adjust the overnight rate up or down. And of course, it can also use its balance sheet.
现在，美联储影响市场的方式当然是通过利率政策。美联储可以调整隔夜利率的上升或下降。当然，它也可以利用其资产负债表。
Now, a lot of times though, the market listened to the Fed and comes to its own conclusions. But of course, the core nexus of course is through interest rates, since that's a tool that the Fed has most control over.
现在，很多时候市场会听取美联储的意见，并得出自己的结论。然而，当然，核心的关系当然是通过利率来实现的，因为这是美联储最具控制权的工具。
So to see the reaction in the markets from the Fed meeting, we've got to look at the bond market. Now, the 10 year yield absolutely crushed lower this past week, ending the week below 4%.
为了看市场对美联储会议的反应，我们必须关注债券市场。现在，上周10年期收益率绝对大幅下降，以低于4%的水平结束了这个星期。
When we think about yields, we can break it down into two components. One of course is the markets expectation of the path of policy over the next say 10 years. The other is a premium the market is asking to hold 10 year treasuries.
当我们考虑收益率时，我们可以将其分为两个部分。当然，其中一个部分是市场对未来10年政策路径的预期。另一个部分是市场要求持有10年期国债的溢价。
Now, this crushed lower is basically entirely in the expected path of policy. Market is very aggressive in pricing in future rate cuts. And so the 10 year yield fail significantly, fail significantly. And this really surprised me. I was not expecting the market to be so aggressive. I was thinking that the 10 year yield had bottom, but it looks like the market had other ideas. Let's see how that plays out going forward.
现在，这种大幅下跌的情况基本上完全符合政策的预期路径。市场对未来的降息非常积极地定价。因此，10年期收益率大幅下跌，大幅下跌。这真的让我很惊讶。我没有预料到市场会如此积极。我原以为10年期收益率已经触底，但市场显然有其他想法。让我们看看未来的走势如何。
Now, the Fed of course, most directly in plumes is interest rates, but interest rates bleed into other assets as well, most notably equity markets.
现在，美联储术语中最直接的是利率，但利率也会渗透到其他资产，尤其是股票市场。
Now, when we look at equities, well, of course, everything surged higher. The Dow Jones made an all time high NASDAQ made an all time high. And it looks like the S&P 500 is not far behind.
现在，当我们看着股票市场时，当然，每个指数都上涨得很高。道琼斯指数创下了历史新高，纳斯达克指数也创下了历史新高。而标普500指数似乎也距离创造历史新高不远了。
You can think of this through a couple lenses. You can be a traditional CFA guy and say, well, interest rates were lower. Thus, when you discount earnings with a lower discount rate, you obviously get end up with a higher net present value. And so equities are worth more.
你可以用几个不同的角度来思考这个问题。你可以像一个传统的CFA专业人士那样，认为利率较低。因此，当你用较低的折现率贴现收益时，显然能得到较高的净现值。所以，股票的价值更高。
Or you can simply say that there is some kind of asset allocation thing going on. A lot of people are looking at bonds. Well, bonds below 4%, not as attractive. Let me buy more stock. Or maybe I have a 60 40 portfolio. My bonds appreciate it significantly. So I'm going to rebalance and buy some equities.
或者你可以简单地说有一种资产配置的事情正在进行中。许多人正在关注债券。嗯，低于4%的债券就不那么吸引人了。那我就买更多的股票吧。或者我可能有一个60 40的投资组合。我的债券有显著升值。所以我要重新配置并购买一些股票。
In any case, not rocket science, interest rates go down, equities go up. And it looks like as long as the market holds this pivot, it can continue.
无论如何，这并不是什么高深莫测的事情，当利率下降时，股票市场就会上涨。而且看起来只要市场能够保持这个转折点，就可以继续上涨。
Now, the financial markets aspect of a dovish Fed is pretty easy. Let's talk about how this might feed into the real economy.
现在，美联储持鸽派立场对金融市场的影响相当容易理解。现在让我们来探讨一下这可能如何影响实体经济。
Now interest rates impact the real economy in an uneven way. Now, just think about what happened the past two years. Interest rates went up significantly, but at the same time, the economy continues to go above trend. Some sectors of the economy are sensitive to interest rates, and some are not. The ones that are sensitive are obviously those sectors that borrow a lot of money.
现在利率以不均匀的方式对实体经济产生影响。想想过去两年发生的事情。利率上涨了很多，但与此同时，经济仍然持续高于趋势水平。经济中的一些部门对利率敏感，而另一些则不敏感。显然，那些借贷大量资金的部门是敏感的部门。
Now, what immediately comes to mind, of course, is housing. Now, when people buy a house, they usually take out a mortgage loan. The mortgage rates are high, and they reached as high as 8% recently. Well, people can't afford to borrow a lot of money, so they don't have as much purchasing power. There's less demand for housing.
现在，立刻浮现在脑海里的，当然是房屋。现在，当人们购买房屋时，通常会办理抵押贷款。抵押贷款利率很高，最近甚至达到了8%。由于人们负担不起借更多的钱，所以他们的购买力减弱了。对房屋的需求也减少了。
Now, though, that interest rates have come lower, that could begin whole another story.
现在，尽管利率已经降低，但这可能开启另一个全新的故事了。
Now, historically speaking, mortgage rates are about, let's say, 2% spread to the 10-year treasury yield.
现在，从历史角度来看，按照我们可以说，抵押贷款利率大约比10年期国债收益率高2%。
Now that the 10-year is below 4%, we could see mortgage rates with a 5% handout in the coming weeks.
现在10年期美国国债收益率低于4%，我们可能会在未来几周看到提供5%的按揭贷款利率。
And that might fundamentally change the game, because a lot of people have been on the sidelines wanting to buy a house, but not able to afford one with 8% mortgages, with a 5-handout that that could really, really reignite the housing market.
而这可能从根本上改变游戏规则，因为许多人一直在观望想要购买房屋，但是无法负担得起8%的抵押贷款，而一个5%的补助可能真的会重新点燃房屋市场。
And if you take a look at home builder stocks, you can see that many people are anticipating this. An index of home builders looks like it's taking off to the moon.
如果你看看房屋建筑公司的股票，你会发现很多人都对此抱有期待。房屋建筑公司股票指数看起来像是在迅速上升。
Now, the strange thing that happened the past year is that even though mortgage rates have been high and housing transactions have been low, home prices have actually continued to increase at a national level.
如今，过去一年发生的奇怪事情是，尽管抵押贷款利率一直很高，房屋交易数量也很低，但全国范围内的房价实际上仍在持续增长。
So, with mortgage rates coming down sharply, we could really see this take off.
所以，随着抵押贷款利率大幅下降，我们真的可能看到这个市场起飞。
Now, many people are looking at this, and some of them are quite skeptical.
现在，很多人都在关注这个问题，其中一些人持怀疑态度。
I've heard smart people say that, you know, maybe with mortgage rates are lower, this might actually be bad for home prices.
我听到聪明人说，也许房贷利率降低对房价来说可能是不利的。
Why? Well, because a lot of people who wanted to sell, because they want to move up, now they can finally sell.
为什么呢？好吧，因为很多想要卖房的人，因为他们想要升级，现在终于可以卖房了。
So, in fact, it will unlock a lot of supply, and this makes total sense.
事实上，这将会释放大量供应，而这完全是有道理的。
When people buy a home, sometimes they sell their current home, so that will increase supply.
当人们购买房屋时，有时会卖掉他们目前拥有的房屋，这会增加房屋供应量。
But I'm thinking this impact might not be as strong this time around, though, because many people, while they're locked in to a 3% or even 2.5% to 2.75% mortgage, when they buy a new home, they might not want to sell their old home, because that mortgage is so valuable.
但是我认为这次的影响可能不会像以前那么强烈，因为很多人在购买新房时，他们可能不想卖掉旧房，因为那笔按揭非常有价值，他们可能会选择保持那笔按揭。
So, for sure, some people will have to sell their home to get money to buy a new one, but I think a lot of people might want to just keep that old one and rent it out.
因此，毫无疑问，有些人将不得不出售他们的房屋以获得购买新房所需的资金，但我认为很多人可能只想保留旧房并将其出租。
So, I think the impact of lower mortgage rates will be will increase demand more than supply.
因此，我认为较低的抵押贷款利率对需求的影响将大于对供应的影响。
And so, I think that still seems quite positive for home prices, and of course, you see that in the home builder stock as well.
所以，我认为房价仍然保持相当积极的趋势，当然，你也可以从房屋建筑商的股票中看到这一点。
Now, another really interesting sensitive segment of the economy is autos.
现在，经济中另一个非常有趣且敏感的部分是汽车行业。
A lot of people buy cars with auto loans.
许多人购买汽车时会选择使用汽车贷款。
Now, let's look at the stock of the one of the largest auto lenders, Ali Financial.
现在，让我们来看一下最大汽车贷款机构之一——蚂蚁金服的股票。
It looks like the home builder stock, right?
这看起来像是住宅建设商的股票，对吗？
It looks like it's going to the moon, because as rates come down, a lot of people will be able to now take out loans and buy cars again, and so that could be a boom for that sector.
看起来像是要去往月球，因为随着利率下降，许多人现在能够贷款购买汽车，所以这可能会给汽车行业带来繁荣。
And one final sector that I look at is people highly-levered companies.
还有一个我关注的最后一个行业是高杠杆公司。
Now, a good proxy of this is high yield spreads.
现在，一个很好的指标是高收益差价。
So, that's the spread you have to pay if you are a heavily indebted company with a low credit rating over Treasury securities.
那么，如果你是一个负债累累、信用评级较低且持有美国国债的公司，就必须支付这个利差。
And you can see from this graph that high yield spreads are basically plummeted after the Fed meeting.
你可以从这个图表看到，在联邦储备会议后，高收益差价基本上是暴跌的。
That's a market anticipating that as interest rates come lower, there's going to be less credit risk, because these companies are probably going to be able, well, at least with a higher probability, be able to handle their interest rate payments.
这是一个市场的预期，随着利率降低，信用风险将会减少，因为这些公司很可能能够更有可能地应对他们的利率付款。
So, all in all, this is going to be a positive boost for the real economy, and it's going to push back against recession fears.
总而言之，这将对实体经济产生积极推动，并将抑制住衰退的担忧。
Again, recession is always coming.
再次强调，经济衰退总是在即。
That's just like death in taxes, but lowering interest rates, it seems, is going to push that further back.
这就像是死亡和税务一样不可避免，但降低利率似乎会进一步推迟这种情况的发生。
Okay, now let's talk about what else happened in the central baking world.
好的，现在让我们谈谈中央银行世界中发生的其他事情。
Again, as we all know, the Fed was perceived to be very dovish.
再次，众所周知，美联储被认为非常鸽派。
But what about the other central banks?
但是其他的中央银行呢？
We also got a meeting from the ECB.
我们还收到了欧洲央行的会议通知。
The second most important central bank in the world is the ECB going to be like the Fed and pull a dovish pivot.
世界上第二重要的中央银行是欧洲央行（ECB），它是否会像美联储一样开始实行鸽派政策转向呢？
Let's hear what Madame Lagarde has to say.
让我们听听拉加德女士有什么话要说。
We did not discuss rate cuts at all.
我们根本没有讨论降息的问题。
No discussion, no debate on this issue.
在这个问题上不讨论，不辩论。
Well, it looks like they're not thinking about rate cuts, and they shouldn't be, right?
嗯，看起来他们并没有考虑降息，而且他们也不应该考虑，对吧？
Their inflation is still above target, and as Madame Lagarde mentioned, they are, they wages still increase, and so maybe they're not where they want to be yet.
他们的通货膨胀仍然高于目标水平，正如拉加德女士所提到的，他们的工资仍在增长，因此可能还没有达到他们想要的状态。
And they also made some very interesting remarks on the quantitative tightening program.
他们还对量化紧缩计划发表了一些非常有趣的言论。
They seem to be wanting to decouple their quantitative tightening program with their interest rate policy, which is also what the Fed seems to suggest as well, and which is what I will write about how the Fed's communications may have changed the QT timeline.
他们似乎想要将他们的定量紧缩计划与利率政策分离开来，这也是美联储似乎在暗示的，而这也是我将要写的关于美联储沟通方式可能如何改变定量紧缩时间表的内容。
I'll write about that on Monday.
我会在周一写关于那件事的内容。
Now, in addition to the ECB, we also had a meeting from the Bank of England.
现在，除了欧洲央行外，我们还召开了英国银行的会议。
Is the Bank of England like the Fed going to dovishly pivot?
英格兰银行会像美联储一样去选择鸽派政策吗？
Well, they didn't have a press conference, so we didn't get a lot of color, but they did have a meeting and they did keep rates steady.
嗯，他们没有召开新闻发布会，所以我们没有得到太多细节，但他们确实举行了一次会议并保持了利率稳定。
In that meeting, though, there was a dissent.
在那次会议上，然而出现了异议。
It was a 6-3 decision.
这是一个6比3的决定。
Now, what do those three dissenters say?
现在，那三个持不同意见的人说了什么呢？
Did they want to have a dovish pivot, but just couldn't overpower everyone else?
他们想要采取鸽派的立场转变，但却无法压倒其他人吗？
Well, actually, it looks like those three people who dissented wanted to hike rates. So no, the Bank of England is definitely not thinking about cutting rates.
实际上，看起来那三位持不同意见的人想要提高利率。因此，不，英格兰银行绝对不在考虑降息。
We also had some commentary from the Bank of Canada. Is Governor McLem over there thinking about cutting rates? Well, let's listen to him. We were not taking further increases off the table. If we need to do them, we will. We haven't yet been discussing rate cuts. I expect what we will be discussing is more how long do we need to stay elevated? No, it looks like he's not going to do a dovish pivot either.
我们还从加拿大银行得到了一些评论。麦克莱姆行长是否正在考虑降息？好的，让我们来听听他的看法。我们并没有排除进一步加息的可能性。如果需要，我们会这样做。我们目前还没有讨论降息的事项。我预计我们将更多地讨论需要保持高水平的时间。看起来他也不打算转变立场。
Now, this whole whole host of communication should not be surprising. Inflation continues to be above target for many of these guys, and so they want to hold rates constant. What's really the odd man out is the Fed, and that actually really surprised me. If you look at a chart of global growth, you notice that in the US, growth is strong. Whereas in the Eurozone and in Canada, growth is not that great and it looks like they're falling into recession. So if anyone should be thinking of maybe cutting rates and being a bit dovish, it's these other central banks. And in addition to that, a lot of these people, a lot of the people in those countries, they have floating grid mortgages and they're filling a lot of pain. But things did not turn out the way I expected. And so it looks like it's a Fed that's going to be dovish, and that has tremendous impacts on currencies.
现在，这整整一大堆的沟通方式应该不会让人感到惊讶。通胀率继续超过许多这些经济体的目标，所以他们希望保持利率不变。实际上，真正让人感到奇怪的是美联储，这真的让我很惊讶。如果你看一下全球增长的图表，你会注意到在美国，增长是强劲的。而在欧元区和加拿大，增长并不那么好，看起来它们正陷入衰退。所以如果有人可能会考虑降息并稍微持鸽派立场，那应该是这些其他的中央银行。除此之外，很多这些国家的人民都有浮动利率的抵押贷款，他们正在承受很大的痛苦。但事情并没有按照我预期的发展。所以看起来会出现持鸽派立场的将是美联储，在货币方面将产生巨大的影响。
Now, if you look at the US dollar index, you can see that, well, this past week, the dollars, the past few weeks, actually, the dollar has sold off aggressively, and you can see correspondingly commodities like gold have been getting a bid.
现在，如果你观察美元指数，你会发现，嗯，过去一周美元实际上一直在大幅抛售，与此同时，你可以看到像黄金这样的商品一直受到追捧。
Now, to be clear, the Fed realized that the market is probably getting ahead of itself and sent out John Williams, president of the New York Fed, the third most important person in the Fed to come and do some damage control in an interview with CNBC, trying to walk back the dovish comments. But, you know, if you just take a look at that interview, it's about eight minutes. What seems obvious to me is that President Williams seemed a bit nervous and was very obviously trying to get the market to price out some rate cuts, but simply wasn't very successful. And if you listen, you'll see that, you know, the sky is basically a dov pretending to be a hawk. So the market just didn't believe that. And I don't think there's much the Fed can do to walk it back. So I think they'll probably continue to try, but I don't think the market is going to buy it. So it's going to be very interesting going forward.
现在，为了明确起见，美联储意识到市场可能过于超前，派出了纽约联储行长、美联储第三重要人物约翰·威廉姆斯前来接受CNBC的采访，试图消弱一些鸽派言论所造成的影响。但是，你知道的，如果你看一下那个采访，大约八分钟。对我来说很明显的是，威廉姆斯行长似乎有点紧张，很明显地试图让市场消除部分降息预期，但并不十分成功。而且如果你仔细听，你会发现，实际上天空是一只假扮为鹰派的鸽子。因此，市场并不相信这一点。我认为美联储无法完全改变市场对此的看法。所以我认为他们可能会继续尝试，但我不认为市场会接受。所以未来的情况将非常有趣。
Now, the last thing I want to talk about is quote unquote excess savings. So during the pandemic, of course, there was tremendous amounts of stimulus, and a lot of people continue to make money. But because they were locked in their homes, they were not able to spend that money. This was actually especially true for upper income people who tend to spend their income on travel experiences and restaurants. So all that was closed during the pandemic. And so what happened was that people were saving a lot more money than they usually did. This was what people think of as quote unquote excess savings.
现在，我要谈的最后一件事是所谓的“过剩储蓄”。在疫情期间，当然有大量的刺激措施，许多人继续赚钱。但由于他们被困在家中，他们无法花掉这些钱。这对于通常会将收入用于旅行和餐馆的高收入人群来说尤为明显。所以在疫情期间，所有这些都被关闭了。因此，人们储蓄的钱比通常情况下要多得多。这就是人们所称的“过剩储蓄”。
Now, after the pandemic, when everyone was able to go out and shop, a lot of people were kind of surprised by how strong the economy was and continues to be. One way of trying to resolve that was to think about excess savings. The thinking was that, well, these guys, they saved up a lot of money during the pandemic. And so that extra savings can continue to fuel their consumption. But watch out, because once those excess savings are done, well, you know, that means that maybe the economy is going to take a downturn because people aren't going to be able to afford all that spending.
现在，在疫情结束后，当每个人都能外出购物时，很多人对经济的强劲发展感到惊讶，而且这种情况仍在持续。一种解决方法就是考虑过剩的储蓄。人们认为，这些人在疫情期间存了很多钱。因此，这些额外的储蓄可以继续推动他们的消费。但要小心，一旦这些过剩的储蓄消耗殆尽，那就意味着经济可能会下滑，因为人们无法负担如此庞大的支出。
Now, the way you calculate excess savings is kind of more art than science. Some people calculated by, let's say, you know, historically, you're saving 6% of your income. So anything above that is excess savings. Some people calculated based upon a level will historically the economy is saving, let's say, $50 billion a month. But because anything below anything above that is excess savings. Now, there's a lot of ways to calculate this. And more importantly, what's the timeframe we use to calculate the baseline? Is that just the past few years or is it the past few decades and so forth? So people come up with very different excess savings calculations when they, depending on their methodology. But regardless of what you use, though, you can bet that you can see that excess savings is basically coming down. So does that mean that the consumer is running out of gas? Well, I don't actually think so, because I think that the whole idea is complete nonsense.
现在，计算超额储蓄的方法更多地是一种艺术而不是科学。有些人计算方法是这样的，比如说，根据历史记录，你存6%的收入。那么超过这个数额的就是超额储蓄。有些人根据经济历史上存款水平来计算，比如说，每月存款500亿美元。因此，低于这个水平以上的都是超额储蓄。现在，有很多计算方法。更重要的是，我们用什么时间范围来计算基准？是过去几年还是几十年等等？所以，根据不同的方法，人们给出了截然不同的超额储蓄计算结果。但是不管你使用的是哪种方法，你可以预料到超额储蓄基本上是在减少的。那么这是否意味着消费者的能量耗尽了呢？我实际上并不这样认为，因为我认为这整个想法完全是无稽之谈。
Now, let's think about it from a household perspective. Let's say you earn money and you spend money and the difference between the two, you save. But the stuff that you save, though, sometimes it's just left in your bank account. And so you can think of that as, you know, let's say I earned $1,000, spend $500, I $500 in the bank account. That's my savings.
现在，让我们从家庭的角度来考虑一下。假设你挣钱然后花钱，两者之间的差额就是你的储蓄。但是有时候你所储蓄的东西只是一直留在你的银行账户里。所以你可以这样想，比如我挣了1000美元，花了500美元，那么我在银行账户里就有500美元。这就是我的储蓄。
But for most people, though, it's not just in a bank account. You use that $500 and you can buy stuff. Maybe you buy stock, maybe you buy crypto, maybe you save up and you buy that house that you always wanted. So when you're talking about savings, what you're really talking about is wealth. And wealth is a dynamic number. It changes.
然而对于大多数人来说，并不仅仅是指银行账户里的钱。你可以使用那500美元去购买东西。也许你会购买股票，也许你会购买加密货币，也许你会存款，然后买下你一直想要的房子。所以，当我们谈论储蓄时，实际上是在谈论财富。而财富是一个动态变化的数值。
Let's say the quote unquote excess pandemic savings was on a spent on crypto, which many people did. Well, crypto prices have tanked and then gone to the moon, whatever it was spent on stocks. Well, stock prices have gone to the moon. So when you're talking about excess wealth, quote unquote, that's actually gone up significantly. Now, recent Fed data shows that as of the third quarter of this year, wealth was, you know, wealth was around all time highs. But since then, as we can see, stock market has gone higher. Bonds have appreciated and home prices continue to go higher. That means that people continue to have more and more wealth.
假设所谓的过剩疫情储蓄被用于加密货币投资，许多人确实这样做了。嗯，加密货币价格一度暴跌，然后又飙升，还有人用于股票投资。嗯，股票价格也突飞猛进。所以当我们谈论过剩财富时，实际上已经显著增长。最近的联邦储备数据显示，截至今年第三季度，财富达到了创纪录的高点。但自那时以来，正如我们所看到的，股市继续上涨，债券走势良好，房价继续攀升。这意味着人们的财富不断增加。
So that wealth can continue to fuel spending. You can think of it as a boomer, you know, sitting on a million dollar house somewhere. Maybe he downsizes by the smaller house and then uses the rest of the money to go on cruises and so forth. Or you can think about a crypto bro, bought Bitcoin now, Bitcoin went up a lot. He has a lot more wealth he can spend. So that excess savings idea, I think it is not useful. You really got to think about wealth.
为了让财富能继续促进消费。你可以把它想象成一个生活在某个百万美元的房子里的婴儿潮一代人。也许他将房子换成了规模较小的房子，然后用剩下的钱去乘坐豪华邮轮等等。或者你可以想象一个加密货币投资者，他购买了比特币，比特币价格大幅上涨。他因此变得更加富有，可以花更多钱。所以我认为过剩的储蓄理念并不实用。你真的要思考财富的重要性。
Now, to be clear, there's a huge distribution, the show impact of this. Few people hold a lot of wealth, but you also have to note that a lot of the wealth appreciation is in housing and 60% of the people in the West own homes. And that's going to affect their spending patterns as well. So I think that the wealth effect is broader now and it's much more useful to think about excess wealth than it is excess savings.
现在，明确一点，这存在一个巨大的分配差距，这对展示有着影响。富人拥有大量财富，但你还必须注意到，很多财富增值来自房地产，而西方的60%人口拥有住房。这也将影响他们的消费模式。因此，我认为财富效应现在更加广泛，过剩财富比过剩储蓄更有用。
And I think with wealth high and jobs, job growth, excuse me, unemployment low and wages growth high, we could actually still continue to see the US economy chug along.
我认为，随着财富的增加和就业机会的增长，失业率的下降和工资的增长，美国经济实际上仍能够持续发展。
All right, so that's all I prepared for this week. Thanks so much for tuning in. And of course, if you are interested in my latest thoughts, check me out at FedGuy.com. Or you can check out my courses at centralbanking101.com. Talk to you all soon.
好的，这就是我为这周准备的所有内容。非常感谢大家的收听。当然，如果你对我的最新想法感兴趣，请关注我的网站FedGuy.com。或者你也可以参加我在centralbanking101.com上的课程。很快再与大家交流。