Jeff Bezos: Amazon and Blue Origin | Lex Fridman Podcast #405
发布时间 2023-12-14 17:53:21 来源
摘要
Jeff Bezos is the founder of Amazon and Blue Origin. Thank you for listening ❤ Please support this podcast by checking out our ...
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The following is a conversation with Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and Blue Origin. This is his first time doing a conversation of this kind and of this length. And as he told me, it felt like we could have easily talked for many more hours, and I'm sure we will. This is the Lex Treatment Podcast, and now, dear friends, here's Jeff Bezos.
以下是与亚马逊和蓝色起源创始人杰夫·贝索斯的对话。这是他第一次进行这种类型和长度的对话。正如他告诉我，感觉我们本可以轻松地谈上更多小时，而且我相信我们将会这样。这是《Lex Treatment Podcast》，亲爱的朋友们，现在请欢迎杰夫·贝索斯。
You spent a lot of your childhood with your grandfather on Ranch here in Texas. And I heard you had a lot of work to do around the ranch. So what's the coolest job you remember doing there? Wow, coolest. Most interesting. Most memorable. Most memorable.
你在德克萨斯州的牧场度过了很多童年时光，经常与你的祖父在一起。我听说你在牧场里有很多工作要做。那你记得在那里做过最酷的工作是什么？哇，最酷的工作啊。最有趣的。最让人难忘的。最令人难忘的。
It was a real working ranch. I spent all my summers on that ranch from age four to 16. And my grandfather was really taking me in the summers. In the early summers, he was letting me pretend to help on the ranch. Because of course, a four-year-old is a burden not to help in real life. He was really just watching me and taking care of me. He was doing that because my mom was so young. She had me when she was 17. And so he was sort of giving her a break. And my grandmother and my grandfather would take me for these summers. But it's got a little older. It actually was helpful on the ranch. And I loved it. I was out there. Like, my grandfather had a huge influence on me, huge factor in my life. I did all the jobs you would do on a ranch. I've fixed windmills and laid fences and pipelines. And, you know, done all the things that any rancher would do. Vaccinated the animals, everything.
这个地方是一个真正的农场。从4岁到16岁的这些年里，我所有的夏天都在那个农场度过。我的祖父真的照顾我夏天去农场。在最早的几个夏天，他让我假装在农场帮忙。因为当然，一个4岁的孩子在现实生活中帮不上什么忙，反而是累赘。他只是在旁边看着我，照顾我。他这样做是因为我妈妈当时很年轻，17岁就生了我。所以他是在给她一个休息的机会。我的祖母和祖父会带我去度过这些夏天。随着我慢慢长大，我实际上开始对农场有了帮助。我喜欢那里。我的祖父对我影响很大，是我生活中的重要人物。我做了农场上所有的工作。修理风车，铺设栅栏和管道。以及任何农场主会做的事情。给动物接种疫苗，等等。
But we had a, you know, my grandfather, after my grandmother died, I was about 12. And I kept coming to the ranch. So it was then it was just him and me, just the two of us. And he was completely addicted to the soap opera, the days of our lives. And we would go back to the ranch house every day around 1 p.m. or so to watch days of our lives. Like, sands through an hourglass. So are the days of our lives. Just the image of that, the two of us. Watching a soap opera. He had these big crazy dogs. It was really a very formative experience for me. But the key thing about it, for me, the great gift I got from it, was that my grandfather was so resourceful. You know, he did everything himself. He made his own veterinary tools. He would make needles to suture the cattle up with. He would find a little piece of wire and heat it up and pound it thin and drill a hole in it and sharpen it. So, you know, you learn different things on a ranch than you would learn, you know, growing up in a city. So self-reliance. Yeah. Like, figuring out that you can solve problems with enough persistence and genuity.
但是有一天，我的祖父去世后，我大概12岁，我一直来到农场。所以那时只剩下他和我两个人。他完全沉迷于肥皂剧《我们生活的日子》。我们每天大约下午1点左右都会回到农舍看那个肥皂剧。就像沙漏中的沙子一样，我们的生活也在流逝。我和他两个人一起看肥皂剧的画面真的对我产生了很大的影响。但对我来说，从中获得的最大的礼物是，我的祖父非常具有资源才能。他什么都亲自动手做，自己制作兽医工具，用针缝合牛的伤口。他会找到一小段铁丝，加热、敲打、把它弄细，然后在上面钻个孔，磨尖它。你知道，在农场上你会学到与在城市长大完全不同的东西，比如自力更生。是的，通过足够的毅力和创新，你会发现自己可以解决问题。
And my grandfather bought a D6 bulldozer, which is a big bulldozer. And he got it for like $5,000 because it was completely broken down. It was like a 1955 Caterpillar D6 bulldozer. Knew it would have cost, I don't know, more than $100,000. And we spent an entire summer fixing, like repairing that bulldozer. And we'd use mail order to buy big gears for the transmission. And they'd show up and they'd be too heavy to move. So we'd have to build a crane, you know, just that kind of, kind of that problem-solving mentality. He had it so powerfully. You know, he did all of his own. He just didn't pick up the phone and call somebody. He would figure it out on his own. He's doing his own veterinary work, you know. But just the image of the two of you fixing a D6 bulldozer and then going in for a little break at 1 p.m. to watch soap opera. Laying on the floor, that's how he watched TV. Yeah.
我的祖父买了一台D6推土机，是一台很大的推土机。他花了5000美元买下来，因为它完全坏了。它是一台1955年的卡特彼勒D6推土机。要是买新的，我觉得至少得花费10万美元以上。然后整个夏天我们都在修理这台推土机。我们使用邮购购买变速器的大齿轮。当它们送到时，太重了搬不动。所以我们不得不建起了一台起重机，解决这种问题就是那种解决问题的思维方式。他有这种强大的能力。你知道，他会自己去完成所有的事情。他自己做兽医工作，不会直接打电话找别人。但是，你们两个一起修理D6推土机，然后在下午1点休息一下看肥皂剧的画面，躺在地板上看电视，那是他看电视的方式。是的。
He was a really, really remarkable guy. That's how I imagine Clint Eastwood also. You know, all those Westerns when he's, when he's not doing what he's doing, he's just watching soap operas. All right.
他是一个非常非常了不起的家伙。我认为克林特·伊斯特伍德也是这样的。你知道的，在他拍那些西部片的时候，当他不在干自己的事情的时候，他只是看肥皂剧。好的。
I read that you fell in love with the idea of space and space exploration when you were five. Watching Yolarn Strong walking on the moon. So let me ask you to look back at the historical context and impact of that. So the space race from 1957 to 1969 between the Soviet Union and the US was in many ways epic. It was a rapid sequence of dramatic events for satellite to space, for human to space, for a spacewalk, for us to include landing on the moon. Then some failures, explosions, death on both sides actually. And then the first human walking on the moon.
我读到你在5岁时就对太空和太空探索的想法爱不释手。看到尤兰·斯特朗踏上月球。所以让我请你回顾一下那段历史背景和影响。所以从1957年到1969年的太空竞赛，苏联和美国之间的竞争在很多方面都是史诗般的。这是一系列戏剧性事件的快速演绎，有卫星进入太空，有人类进入太空，有太空行走，最终还有我们登上月球。然后出现了一些失败、爆炸，双方都有人员死亡。最后才有第一位人类走上月球。
What are some of the more inspiring moments or insights you take away from that time, those few years, but just 12 years?
在那个时期，那几年里，甚至只有12年的时间里，你经历了哪些鼓舞人心的时刻或领悟？
Well, I mean, there's so much inspiring there. You know, one of the great things to take away from that, one of the great von Braun quotes is, I have come to use the word impossible with great caution. And so that's kind of the big story of Apollo is that things, you know, going to the moon was literally an analogy that people used for something that's impossible.
嗯，我的意思是，那里有太多的启发。你知道，其中一个很棒的事情是，我们可以从中得到很多启示。冯·布劳恩的名言之一就是，我已经开始小心谨慎地使用“不可能”这个词了。所以阿波罗计划的重大意义就在于，人们把登月比作一件不可能的事情，而事实上它却变成了现实。
You know, oh, yeah, you'll do that when men walk on the moon. And of course, it finally happened. So, you know, I think it was pulled forward in time because of the space race. I think, you know, with the geopolitical implications and, you know, how much resource was put into it, you know, at the peak that program was spending, you know, 2 or 3% of GDP on the Apollo program, so much resource.
你知道的，哦，是啊，只有当人们登上月球时，你才会这样做。当然，最终这件事发生了。所以，你知道的，我认为这是因为太空竞赛而提前发生的。我认为，你知道的，由于地缘政治的影响以及投入了多少资源，该计划被提前进行了。在巅峰时期，该计划的支出相当于国内生产总值的2%或3%，投入了如此多的资源。
I think it was pulled forward in time. You know, we kind of did it ahead of when we quote unquote should have done it. And so in that way, it's also a tactical marvel. I mean, it's truly incredible. It's the 20th century version of building the pyramids or something. It's, you know, it's an achievement that because it was pulled forward in time, because it did something that had previously been thought impossible, it rightly deserves its place as, you know, in the pantheon of great human achievements.
我认为它是被提前带到了现代。你知道，我们有点提前做了，所谓的应该做的事情。因此，在这种意义上，它也是一种战术奇迹。我是说，它真的非常令人难以置信。它就像是建造金字塔等等的二十世纪版本。因为它被提前带到了现代，因为它做了一些之前被认为不可能的事情，它理所当然地在伟大人类成就的殿堂中占据了一席之地。
And of course, you named the projects, the rockets that Blue Origin is working on after some of the folks involved. I don't understand why I didn't say new Gagarin. Is that? It's an American bias in the naming. I apologize. Very strange. It's very strange. Alex. Staske for a friend. I'm a big fan of Gagarin's though.
当然，蓝色起源正在进行的项目、火箭都以参与其中的人命名。我不明白为什么我没有说新噶加林。是美国的偏见在起名字上。我道歉。非常奇怪。非常奇怪。对于朋友亚历克斯·斯塔斯克，我是个噶加林的忠实粉丝。
And in fact, I think his first words in space, I think are incredible. He, you know, he purportedly said, my God, it's blue. And that really drives home. No one had seen the Earth from space. No one knew that we were on this blue planet. No one knew what it looked like from out there. And Gagarin was the first person to see it.
事实上，我认为他在太空中的第一句话简直令人难以置信。据说他说的是：“我的天啊，它是蓝色的。”这句话深深地震撼着人们。没有人见过地球从太空中的样子。没人知道我们生活在这个蓝色星球上。没人知道从那里看过去它是什么样子。而加加林是第一个看到这一切的人。
One of the things they think about is how dangerous those early days were for Gagarin, for, for Glenn, for everybody involved, like how big of a risk they were all. They were taking huge risks. I'm not sure what the Soviets thought about Gagarin's flight, but I think that the Americans thought that the Alan Shepard flight, the flight that, you know, New Shepard is named after the first American space.
他们思考的其中一件事是加加林那些早期日子有多么危险，对格伦、对每个参与其中的人来说都是如此，就像他们承受了多大的风险一样。他们冒了巨大的风险。我不确定苏联人对加加林的飞行有何看法，但我认为美国人认为艾伦·谢泼德的飞行，也就是你所熟知的新谢泼德号首次飞行的那次，是一个巨大的风险。
He'd been on his suborbital flight. They thought he had about a 75% chance of success. So, you know, that's a pretty big risk, a 25% risk. It's kind of interesting that Alan Shepard is not quite as famous as John Glenn. So for people who don't know, Alan Shepard is the first astronaut. The first American in space.
他已经进行了一次亚轨道飞行。他们认为他有大约75%的成功机会。所以你知道的，这是一个相当大的风险，25%的风险。有趣的是，阿兰·谢泼德并不像约翰·格伦那样出名。所以对于不了解的人来说，阿兰·谢泼德是第一位宇航员，也是第一位进入太空的美国人。
American in suborbital flight. Correct. And then the first orbital flight is. That John Glenn is the first American to orbit the Earth.
美国人进行了亚轨道飞行。没错。然后进行了第一次轨道飞行，约翰·格伦成为第一个绕地球轨道飞行的美国人。
By the way, I have the most charming, sweet, incredible letter from John Glenn, which I have framed and hang on my office wall, where he tells me how grateful he is that we have named New Glenn after him. And it sent me that letter about a week before he died. And it's really an incredible. It's also a very funny letter. He's writing and he says, you know, this is a letter about New Glenn from the original Glenn. And he's just got a great sense of humor. And he's very happy about it and grateful. It's very sweet.
顺便说一下，我有一封来自约翰·格伦的迷人、甜美、令人难以置信的信件，我已经装裱并挂在办公室的墙上。他在信中告诉我他有多感激我们以他的名字命名了新格伦号。他在去世前大约一周寄给我这封信。这封信非常不可思议，而且非常幽默。他在信中写道，这是一封来自"原版"格伦的关于新格伦号的信件。他非常幽默，而且对此非常高兴和感激。这封信真的非常温馨。
Does he say P.S. don't mess this up or is that. No, he doesn't. Making you look good. He doesn't do that. Okay. But we put John wherever you are. We got you covered. Good.
他是说“附言，切勿搞砸”，还是其他的？不，他不是这样说的。只是让你看起来好一些。他不会这么做的。好吧。但我们会照顾到约翰，无论你在哪里。没问题。
So back to maybe the big picture of space. When you look up at the stars and think big, what do you hope is the future of humanity? Hundreds, thousands of years from now out in space.
回到太空的宏大视野。当你仰望星空，并思考未来时，你对人类的未来有什么期望？几百，几千年后，在太空中。
I would love to see, you know, a trillion humans living in the solar system. If we had a trillion humans, we would have, at any given time, a thousand Mozart's and a thousand Einstein's. That would be our solar system before life and intelligence and energy. And we can easily support a civilization that large with all of the resources in the solar system.
我希望能看到太阳系中居住着一万亿人。如果我们有一万亿人口，那么我们将同时拥有一千个莫扎特和一千个爱因斯坦。这将是我们有生命、智慧和能源之前的太阳系。而且，我们可以利用太阳系内的所有资源轻松维持这么庞大的文明。
So what do you think that looks like? Giant space stations? Yeah. The only way to get to that vision is with giant space stations. You know, the planetary surfaces are just way too small. So you can, I mean, unless you turn them into giant space stations or something. But yeah, we will take materials from the moon and from near-Earth objects and from the asteroid belt and so on. And we'll build giant, own-yield-style colonies and people will live in those.
你认为那会是什么样子呢？巨大的空间站吗？是的，要实现这种愿景只有建造巨大的空间站才行。你知道，行星表面实在太小了。所以，你可以说，除非将它们改造成巨大的空间站之类的东西。但是是的，我们将会从月球、近地天体和小行星带等地获取材料。然后我们将建造巨大的自给式殖民地，人们将居住在那里。
And they have a lot of advantages over planetary surfaces. You can spend them to get normal Earth gravity. You can put them where you want them. I think most people are going to want to live near Earth, not necessarily in Earth orbit, but in, you know, Earth, but near Earth vicinity orbits. And so they can move, you know, relatively quickly back and forth between their station and Earth.
它们相对于行星表面有很多优势。你可以利用它们获得正常的地球重力。你可以将它们放在你想要的位置。我认为大多数人都会希望住在地球附近，不一定是地球轨道上，而是在地球附近的轨道上。因此，他们可以在太空站和地球之间相对迅速地来回移动。
So I think a lot of people, especially in the early stages, are not going to want to give up Earth altogether. They go to Earth for vacation.
因此，我认为很多人，尤其是在早期阶段，不会完全放弃地球。他们会前往地球度假。
Yeah. Same way that you know, you might go to Yellowstone National Park for vacation.
是的，就像你知道的一样，你可能去黄石国家公园度假一样。
People will, and no one, and people will get to choose where they live on Earth or where they live in space, but they'll be able to use much more energy and much more material resource in space than they would be able to use on Earth.
人们将会选择在地球上生活还是在太空中生活，而且没有人可以强制他们的选择。然而，相比在地球上，人们在太空中能够使用更多的能源和材料资源。
One of the interesting ideas you had is to move the heavy industry away from Earth. So people sometimes have this idea that somehow space exploration is in conflict with the celebration of the planet Earth, that we should focus on preserving Earth. And basically your idea is that space travel and space exploration is the way to preserve Earth.
你提出的一个有趣的想法是将重工业迁离地球。有些人有这样的想法，认为太空探索与地球的保护是相互冲突的，我们应该专注于保护地球。但基本上，你的想法是通过太空旅行和探索来保护地球的方法。
Exactly. This planet, we've sent robotic probes to all the planets. We know that this is the good one. Not to play favorites or anything. But Earth really is the good planet. It's amazing. It's amazing.
没错。我们已经向所有行星发射了机器探测器。我们知道地球是个好地方，虽然不是偏心什么的。但地球真的是个很棒的星球。它太神奇了。真的太神奇了。
The ecosystem we have here, all of the life and the lush, the plant life and the water resources, everything this planet is really extraordinary. And of course, we evolved on this planet. So of course it's perfect for us, but it's also perfect for all the advanced life forms on this planet, all the animals and so on. And so this is a gem. We do need to take care of it.
我们这里的生态系统，所有的生命和郁郁葱葱的植被、水资源，这个星球上的一切真的非常特别。当然，我们是在这个星球上进化的。所以，对我们来说它是完美的，但对这个星球上的所有先进生命形式，包括所有动物等而言，它同样是完美的。因此，这是一颗宝石。我们确实需要好好保护它。
And as we enter the Anthropocene, as we humans have gotten so sophisticated and large and impactful, as we stride across this planet, that is going to, as we continue, we want to use a lot of energy. We want to use a lot of energy per capita.
随着我们进入人类世纪，我们人类变得如此精明、庞大和有影响力，我们在这个星球上迈步前行，随着我们的持续发展，我们想要使用大量能源。我们想要人均使用大量能源。
We've gotten amazing things. We don't want to go backwards. If you think about the good old days, they're mostly an illusion. We can almost every way, life is better for almost everyone today than it was, say, 50 years ago or 100 years ago. We live better lives by and large than our grandparents did and their grandparents did and so on. And you can see that in global illiteracy rates, global poverty rates, global infant mortality rates, almost any metric you choose, we're better off than we used to be. And we get antibiotics and all kinds of life-saving medical care and so on and so on.
我们得到了很多了不起的东西。我们不想倒退。如果你想一想过去的美好时光，它们大部分都是幻觉。几乎可以说，在几乎每一个方面，今天的人们的生活都比50年前或100年前的人们更好。总体而言，我们的生活比祖父母的时代以及他们的祖父母的时代要好。你可以从全球识字率、全球贫困率、全球婴儿死亡率等各种指标中看到这一点，我们比过去更幸福。而且我们还有抗生素和各种能挽救生命的医疗护理等等。
And there's one thing that is moving backwards and it's the natural world. So it is a fact that 500 years ago, pre-industrial age, the natural world was pristine. It was incredible. And we have traded some of that pristine beauty for all of these other gifts that we have as an advanced society. And we can have both, but to do that, we have to go to space.
有一件事正在倒退，那就是自然界。因此，事实上，在500年前，也就是工业时代之前，自然界是原始而美丽的。我们为了作为一个先进社会所拥有的其他成就，交换了一部分原始美景。我们可以兼得两者，但为了实现这一点，我们需要进入太空。
And all of this really, the most fundamental measure is energy usage per capita. And when you look at, you do want to continue to use more and more energy. It is going to make your life better in so many ways, but that's not compatible ultimately with living on a finite planet. And so we have to go out into the solar system. And really, you could argue about when you have to do that, but you can't credibly argue about whether you have to do that. Eventually, we have to do that.
而所有这一切，最基本的衡量指标实际上是人均能源使用量。当你看到时，你确实希望继续使用更多的能源。它会在很多方面让你的生活变得更好，但这与生活在有限的星球上最终是不相容的。因此，我们必须走出太阳系。你可以对于什么时候必须这样做进行争论，但你无法可信地质疑是否必须这样做。最终，我们必须这样做。
Exactly. So you don't often talk about it, but let me ask you on that topic about the blue ring and the orbital reef space infrastructure projects. What's your vision for these?
没错。所以你不经常谈论这个，但是让我问你关于蓝圈和轨道礁太空基础设施项目的计划。对于这些项目，你的愿景是什么呢？
So blue ring is a very interesting spacecraft that is designed to take up to 3,000 kilograms of payload up to geosynchronous orbit or in lunar vicinity. It has two different kinds of propulsion. It has chemical propulsion and it has electric propulsion.
蓝环是一种非常有趣的航天器，设计用于将高达3000公斤的有效载荷运送到地球同步轨道或月球附近。它拥有两种不同的推进方式。它具备化学推进和电动推进两种。
And so you can use blue ring in a couple of different ways. You can slowly move, let's say, up to geosynchronous orbit using electric propulsion. That might take 100 days or 150 days, depending on how much mass you're carrying. And then reserve your chemical propulsion so that you can change orbits quickly in geosynchronous orbit. Or you can use the chemical propulsion first to quickly get up to geosynchronous and then use your electrical propulsion to slowly change your geosynchronous orbit.
所以你可以以几种不同的方式使用蓝色轨道。你可以使用电推进慢慢移动，比如说，使用电推进，可以在100天或150天内到达地球同步轨道，具体取决于你携带的质量有多少。然后保留化学推进，以便在地球同步轨道上能够快速改变轨道。或者你可以先使用化学推进快速到达地球同步轨道，然后使用电推进来缓慢改变地球同步轨道。
Blue ring has a couple of interesting features. It provides a lot of services to these payloads. So the payload could be one large payload or it can be a number of small payloads. And it provides thermal management, it provides electric power, it provides compute, provides communications.
蓝环具有一些有趣的特点。它为这些有效载荷提供了很多服务。因此，有效载荷可以是一个大型有效载荷，也可以是一些小型有效载荷。它提供了热管理、电力、计算和通信等功能。
And so when you design a payload for blue ring, you don't have, you don't have to figure out all of those things on your own. So kind of radiation tolerant compute is a complicated thing to do. And so we have an unusually large amount of radiation tolerant compute on board blue ring. And your payload can just use that when it needs to. So it's sort of all these services. It's like a set of APIs. It's a little bit like Amazon Web Services, but for space payloads that need to move about an Earth vicinity or lunar vicinity. AWS S.
因此，当您为蓝环（blue ring）设计一个有效载荷时，您无需自己弄清所有这些事情。所以辐射容忍型计算是一件复杂的事情。因此，我们在蓝环上配备了异常多的辐射容忍型计算设备。当您的有效载荷需要时，它可以直接使用这些设备。因此，它就像一组API服务。有点像亚马逊网络服务（Amazon Web Services），但适用于需要在地球附近或月球附近移动的太空有效载荷。AWS S.
Okay. So it's a computing space. So you get a giant chemical rocket to get a payload out to orbit. And then you have these admins that show up this blue ring thing that manages various things like compute. Exactly. And it can also provide transportation and move you around to different orbits. Including humans? You think? No, blue ring is not designed to move humans around. It's designed to move payloads around. So we're also building a lunar lander, which is of course designed to land humans on the surface of the moon. I'm going to ask you about that. Well, let me let me actually just step back to the old days. You were at Princeton with aspirations to be a theoretical physicist. Yeah. What attracted you to physics and why did you change your mind and not become? Why you're not Jeff Bezos, the famous theoretical physicist? So I loved physics and I studied physics and computer science. And I was proceeding along the physics path. I was playing the major in physics. And I wanted to be a theoretical physicist. And the computer science was sort of something I was doing for fun. I really loved it. And I was very good at the programming and doing those things. And I enjoyed all my computer science classes immensely. But I really was determined to be a theoretical physicist. That's why I went to Princeton in the first place. It was definitely. And then I realized I was going to be a mediocre theoretical physicist. And there were a few people in my classes, like in quantum mechanics and so on, who they could effortlessly do things that were so difficult for me. And I realized there are a thousand ways to be smart and to be really, you know, theoretical physics is not one of those fields where the only the top few percent actually move the state of the art forward. It's one of those things where you have to be really, just your brain has to be wired in a certain way. And there was a guy named one of these people who was convinced me, he didn't mean to convince me, but just by observing him, he convinced me that I should not try to be a theoretical physicist. His name was Josanta. And Josanta was from Sri Lanka. And he was one of the most brilliant people I'd ever met. My friend Joe and I were working on a very difficult partial differential equations, problems set one night. And there was one problem that we worked on for three hours. And we made no headway whatsoever. And we looked up at each other at the same time and we said, you know, Santa.
好的。所以这是一个计算空间。所以你需要一枚巨大的化学火箭将有效载荷送入轨道。然后有这些管理员出现，管理着这个蓝色环形装置，来管理各种计算等事物。没错。它还可以提供运输服务，并将你送到不同的轨道上。包括人类吗？你觉得呢？不，蓝色环形装置并不是设计用来运送人类的，它是用来运送有效载荷的。所以我们也正在建造一艘登月器，当然是为了将人类降落在月球表面。我来问问你这个。好吧，先让我回顾一下过去的日子。你在普林斯顿大学，立志成为一名理论物理学家。是的。是什么吸引你去学物理，为什么最后改变主意不成为...为什么你不是以著名的理论物理学家身份而出名的杰夫·贝索斯呢？我喜欢物理学，我学习了物理学和计算机科学。我一直在追求物理学的道路，打算主修物理学。计算机科学只是我为了好玩而做的一些事情。我真的很喜欢它，而且我在编程和其他方面也很擅长。我非常享受我的计算机科学课程。但我确实决心成为一名理论物理学家，所以才去了普林斯顿。而后我意识到我将成为一个平庸的理论物理学家。在我的课程中有一些人，比如在量子力学等课程上，他们轻而易举地做出了我觉得非常困难的事情。我意识到有无数种聪明的方式，而且要在理论物理学领域真正推动前沿发展，只有前几个百分比的人才能做到。这是一个需要你的大脑以特定方式运作的领域。而有一个人，他并不是有意要说服我，但是通过观察他，他让我相信我不应该尝试成为一名理论物理学家。他叫做Josanta。Josanta来自斯里兰卡，是我遇到过的最聪明的人之一。有一天晚上，我和我的朋友乔一起解决了一个非常困难的偏微分方程问题，其中一个问题我们花了三个小时，但没有任何进展。我们同时抬起头，然后说：“你知道吗，圣塔”。
So we went to Josanta's dorm room and he was there. He was almost always there. And we said, you know, Santa, we're having trouble solving this partial differential equation, which mind taking a look. And he said, of course, by the way, he was the most humble, most kind person. And so he took our, he looked at our problem and he stared at it for just a few seconds, maybe 10 seconds. And he said, cosine. And I said, what do you mean, Josanta? What do you mean cosine? He said, that's the answer. And I said, no, no, come on. And he said, let me show you. And he took out some paper and he wrote down three pages of equations. Everything canceled out. And the answer was cosine. And I said, Josanta, did you do that in your head? And he said, no, no, that would be impossible.
所以我们去了Josanta的宿舍，他在那里。他几乎总是在那里。我们说，你知道的，Santa，我们在解决这个偏微分方程的时候遇到了问题，能帮忙看看吗？他说，当然可以，顺便提一下，他是最谦虚、最善良的人。然后他看了我们的问题，盯着它看了几秒钟，也许10秒钟。然后他说，余弦。我问，你说什么，Josanta？你说什么余弦？他说，那就是答案。我说，不，不，开个玩笑吧。他说，让我给你看。然后他拿出一些纸，写了三页的方程式。一切都抵消了。答案就是余弦。我问，Josanta，你是在脑子里算的吗？他说，不，不，那是不可能的。
A few years ago, I solved a similar problem. And I could map this problem onto that problem. And then it was immediately obvious that the answer was cosine. I had a few, you know, you have an experience like that. You realize maybe being a theoretical physicist isn't what the universe wants you to be. And so I switched to computer science and, you know, that worked out really well for me. I enjoy it. I still enjoy it today. Yeah, there's a particular kind of intuition. You need to be a great physicist in applied to physics. I think the mathematical skill required today is so high. You have to be a world class mathematician to be a successful theoretical physicist today. And it's not, you know, you probably need other skills too. Intuition, lateral thinking, and so on. But without the, without just top-notch math skills, you're unlikely to be successful. And visualization skill, you have to be able to really kind of do these kind of thought experiments. And if you want a truly great creativity, actually, Walter Isaacson writes about you. It puts you on the same level as Einstein. Well, that's very kind. I'm an inventor. If you want to boil down what I am, I'm really an inventor. And I look at things and I can come up with atypical solutions. And, you know, and then I can create 100 such atypical solutions for something. 99 of them may not survive, you know, scrutiny. But one of those 100 is like, hmm, maybe there is, maybe that might work. And then you can keep going from there. So that kind of lateral thinking, that kind of inventiveness in a high-dimensionality space, where the search space is very large, that's where my inventive skills come. That's the thing I'm, if I, I self-identify as an inventor more than anything else.
几年前，我解决了一个类似的问题。我将这个问题与那个问题进行了映射。接着很明显地得出了余弦的答案。你可能也有过这样的经历。你意识到自己可能不是宇宙希望你成为的理论物理学家。所以我转行去学计算机科学，事实证明这对我来说非常好。我喜欢它，今天我仍然喜欢它。是的，你需要一种特殊的直觉才能成为应用物理学的伟大物理学家。我认为今天需要的数学技能非常高。你必须成为一个世界级的数学家才能成为一个成功的理论物理学家。当然，并非只需要数学技能，你可能还需要其他技能，如直觉、横向思维等等。但是如果没有顶尖的数学技能，你不太可能成功。还有可视化技能，你必须能够进行这些思维实验。如果你想要真正伟大的创造力，沃尔特·艾萨克森在他的著作中称你与爱因斯坦同等。这真是太好了。实际上我是一个发明家。如果要概括我是什么，我真的是一个发明家。我可以看待问题并想出非典型的解决方案。你知道，然后我可以为某个问题创造100个这样的非典型解决方案。其中有99个可能经不起审查。但那100个中的一个，嗯，也许有可能行。然后你可以继续发展下去。所以那种横向思考，那种在一个大维度空间中具有创造力的能力，搜索空间非常大，这就是我发明能力的体现。如果要自我定位，我更认为自己是一个发明家，胜过其他任何身份。
Yeah. And he describes it in all kinds of different ways. Walter Isaacson does that creativity combined with childlike launder that you've maintained still to this day. All of that combined together. Is there like, if you were to study your own brain introspect, how do you think? What's your thinking process like? We'll talk about the writing process of putting it down on paper, which is quite rigorous and famous at Amazon. But how do you, when you sit down, maybe alone, maybe with others, and thinking through this high-dimensional space and looking for creative solutions, creative paths forward? Is there something you could say about that process? It's such a good question. And I honestly don't know how it works. If I did, I would try to explain it. I know it involves lots of wandering. Yeah. So I, you know, when I sit down to work on a problem, I know I don't know where I'm going. So to go in a straight line, to be efficient, efficiency and invention are sort of at odds, because invention, real invention, not incremental improvement. Incremental improvement is so important in every endeavor and everything you do. You have to work hard on also just making things a little bit better. But I'm talking about real invention, real lateral thinking. That requires wandering. And you have to give yourself permission to wander. I think a lot of people, they feel like wandering is inefficient. And, you know, like when I sit down at a meeting, I don't know how long the meeting is going to take if we're trying to solve a problem. Because if I did, then I'd already, I know there's some kind of straight line that we're drawing to the solution.
是的，他用各种不同的方式描述了这个创造力与童趣、你仍然保持至今的愚忠。所有这些加在一起。如果你要研究自己的大脑反思，你是怎么思考的？你的思维过程是怎样的？我们将讨论将其写下来的过程，这在亚马逊非常严格和著名。但是当你坐下来，也许是一个人，也许是和别人一起，去思考这个高维空间，并寻找创造性的解决方案、创造性的前进路径时，你能说些什么关于这个过程吗？这是一个非常好的问题。老实说，我不知道它是如何运作的。如果我知道，我会尝试解释一下。我知道它涉及到很多漫游。当我开始解决一个问题时，我知道我不知道我要去哪里。为了走直线，为了高效，高效和发明往往是相互矛盾的，因为真正的发明，不是渐进式的改进，在每一个努力和所做的每件事情上，你都必须努力使事情变得更好。但我说的是真正的发明，真正的侧面思维。这需要漫游。你必须给自己漫游的许可。我认为很多人觉得漫游是低效的。你知道吗，当我坐下来开会时，我不知道解决问题会花多长时间。因为如果我知道的话，那么我已经知道我们正在画一条通往解决方案的直线了。
The reality is we may have to wander for a long time. And I do like group invention. I think there's really nothing more fun than sitting at a whiteboard with a group of smart people and spitballing and coming up with new ideas and objections to those ideas. And then solutions to the objections and going back and forth. So, like, you know, sometimes you wake up with an idea in the middle of the night, and sometimes you sit down with a group of people and go back and forth. And both things are really pleasurable.
And when you wander, I think one key thing is to notice a good idea. And maybe to notice the kernel of a good idea, maybe pull it that string. Because I don't think good ideas come fully formed. 100% right. In fact, when I come up with what I think is a good idea, and it survives kind of the first level of scrutiny, you know, that I do in my own head, and I'm ready to tell somebody else about the idea, I will often say, look, it is going to be really easy for you to find rejections to this idea. But work with me. There's something there. There's something there. And that is intuition, because it's really easy to kill new ideas in the beginning, because they do have so many easy objections to them. You need to kind of forewarn people and say, look, I know it's going to take a lot of work to get this to a fully formed idea. Let's get started on that. It'll be fun. So you've got that ability to say cosign and use somewhere after all. Maybe not on math. In a different domain. There are a thousand ways to be smart, by the way. And that is a really, like, when I go around, you know, and I meet people, I'm always looking for the way that they're smart. And you find it is, that's one of the things that makes the world so interesting and fun is that it is not like IQ is a single dimension. There are people who are smart in such unique ways. Yeah, you just gave me a good response as when somebody calls me an idiot on the internet. That's a thousand ways to be smart, sir. Well, they might tell you, yeah, but there are a million ways to be done.
事实是，我们可能要漫无目的地很长时间。而且我确实喜欢集体创造。我认为没有什么比和一群聪明人坐在白板前，畅所欲言并提出新想法和反对意见更有趣了。然后我们一起想出解决方案并来回讨论。就像，你知道的，有时候你半夜醒来有一个想法，有时候你和一群人来回交流。这两种情况都非常愉快。
当你漫游时，我觉得一个关键是要发现一个好的想法。也许要发现一个好的想法的种子，然后去追根溯源。因为我觉得好的想法并非一蹴而就，百分之百正确。实际上，当我想出一个我认为不错的理念，经过了我自己头脑中的初步审查，并且准备告诉别人之后，我经常会说，看，很容易有人找出这个想法的反对意见。但和我一起努力吧，这里面有一些内容，有一些潜力。这是直觉，因为在一开始阶段很容易扼杀新想法，因为它们有很多容易被反驳的地方。你需要提前告诉人们并说，我知道把这个想法完善需要很多工作，我们开始吧，会很有趣的。所以你有能力在最后找到某个地方用起来。也许不是数学领域，也许是其他领域。其实，有很多方式可以变得聪明。当然，在我四处走动、结识人们的时候，我总是在寻找他们聪明的方式。你会发现，这正是让世界如此有趣和有趣的事情之一，智商并不是一个单一的维度。有些人聪明的方式如此独特。是的，你刚给了我一个很好的回答，就像当有人在网上骂我白痴时。有一千种聪明的方式，先生。嗯，他们可能会告诉你，是的，但是失败的方式有一百万种。
You don't, yeah, right. I feel like that's a Mark Twain quote. All right.
你不知道，是的，没错。我觉得那可能是马克·吐温（Mark Twain）的一句名言。好吧。
You gave me an amazing tour of Blue Origin, Rocket Factory, and Launch Complex, and the historic Cape Canaveral. That's when you Glenn, the big rocket we talked about as being built and will launch. Can you explain what the new Glenn rocket is? And tell me some interesting technical aspects of how it works.
你给我带领参观了蓝色起源公司、火箭制造厂和发射场，以及历史悠久的卡纳维拉尔角。就在那时，你提到了一个名为“新格伦”的巨型火箭，它正在建造并将要进行发射。你能解释一下新格伦火箭是什么吗？并且告诉我一些有趣的技术细节，它是如何工作的呢？
Sure.
当然可以。
New Glenn is a very large, heavy lift launch vehicle. It'll take about 45 metric tons to Leo, very large class. It's about half the thrust, a little more than half the thrust of the Saturn 5 rocket. So it's about 3.9 million pounds of thrust on liftoff. The booster has seven BE4 engines. The each engine generates a little more than 550,000 pounds of thrust. The engines are fueled by liquid natural gas, liquefied natural gas, LNG, as the fuel and locks as the oxidizer. The cycle is an ox-rich stage combustion cycle. It's a cycle that was really pioneered by the Russians. It's a very good cycle. And that engine is also going to power the first stage of the Vulcan rocket, which is the United Launch Alliance rocket.
New Glenn是一种非常庞大、重型的发射器。它的LEO（低地球轨道）运载能力大约为45吨，属于非常大型级别。它的推力约为土星5号火箭的一半多一点，约为390万磅。发射器使用了七个BE4发动机，每个发动机的推力稍大于55万磅。这些发动机使用液态天然气作为燃料，液氧作为氧化剂。这种循环是一种富氧多燃料级联循环，俄罗斯在其中做出了开创性的贡献，是一种非常出色的循环方式。这款发动机也将用于Vulcan火箭的一级助推器，Vulcan火箭是由联合发射联盟（United Launch Alliance）研发的。
Then the second stage of new Glenn is powered by two BE3U engines, which is a upper stage variant of our new shepherd liquid hydrogen engine. So the BE3U has 160,000 pounds of thrust. So two of those 320,000 pounds of thrust. And hydrogen is a very good propellant for upper stages, because it has very high ISP. It's not a great propellant, in my view, for booster stages, because the stages then get physically so large. Hydrogen has very high ISP, but liquid hydrogen is not dense at all.
然后，新格伦火箭的第二阶段由两台BE3U发动机提供动力，这是我们新开发的牧羊人型液氢发动机的一个变种。因此，BE3U发动机具有160,000磅的推力。所以两台发动机总共有320,000磅的推力。液氢是一种非常适合上级级的良好推进剂，因为它具有非常高的比冲。在我看来，液氢并不是一种很适合助推级的推进剂，因为助推级的体积会因此变得非常大。液氢的比冲非常高，但液态氢并不密集。
So to store liquid hydrogen, you need to store many thousands of pounds of liquid hydrogen. Your tanks, your liquid hydrogen tank, it's very large. So you get more benefit from the higher ISP, the specific impulse. You get more benefit from the higher specific impulse on the second stage. And that stage carries less propellant, so you don't get such geometrically gigantic tanks.
为了储存液态氢，你需要储存成千上万磅的液态氢。你的储罐，液态氢罐，是非常大的。所以你会从较高的比冲中获得更多的好处。在第二级火箭上，你会从较高的比冲中获得更多的好处。而且该级别携带的推进剂较少，所以你不需要如此庞大的几何储罐。
The Delta IV is an example of a vehicle that is all hydrogen. The booster stage is also hydrogen. And I think that it's a very effective vehicle, but it never was very cost effective. So it's operationally very capable, but not very cost effective. So size is also costly. Size is costly.
德尔塔四号是一个完全采用氢能的例子。助推器阶段也是使用氢能的。我认为这是一辆非常有效的飞行器，但它从未特别具有成本效益。因此，从操作上来说，它非常有能力，但在成本效益方面却并不理想。因此，尺寸也是昂贵的。尺寸是昂贵的。
So it's interesting. Rockets love to be big. Everything works better. What do you mean by that? You've told me that before. It sounds epic.
所以这很有趣。火箭喜欢变得庞大。一切都更有效。你是什么意思？你之前告诉过我。听起来很壮丽。
It was a. I mean, when you look at the kind of the physics of rocket engines, and also when you look at parasitic mass, if you have, let's say you have an avionics system, so you have a guidance and control system, that is going to be about the same mass and size for a giant rocket as it is going to be for a tiny rocket. And so that's just parasitic mass that is very consequential if you're building a very small rocket, but is trivial if you're building a very large rocket.
这是一个很关键的问题。我是说，当你考虑火箭发动机的物理特性时，以及当你考虑寄生质量时，比如说，如果你有一个航空电子系统，也就是你有一个导航和控制系统，对于一个庞大的火箭来说，它的质量和大小与一个微小火箭相比基本相同。所以，这只是一种寄生质量，如果你建造一个非常小的火箭，它就会非常重要，但如果你建造一个非常大的火箭，这就微不足道了。
So you have the parasitic mass thing. And then if you look at, for example, rocket engines have turbo pumps. They have to pressurize the fuel and the oxidizer up to a very high pressure level in order to inject it into the thrust chamber where it burns.
所以你有寄生性的质量的事情。例如，火箭引擎拥有涡轮泵。它们必须将燃料和氧化剂加压到非常高的压力水平，以便将其注入燃烧的推力室中。
And those pumps, all rotating machines, in fact, get more efficient as they get larger. So really tiny turbo pumps are very challenging to manufacture. And any kind of gaps between the housing, for example, and the rotating impeller that pressurizes the fuel, there has to be some gap there. You can't have those parts scraping against one another. And those gaps drive inefficiencies. And so if you have a very large turbo pump, those gaps and percentage terms end up being very small. And so there's a bunch of things that you end up loving about having a large rocket, and that you end up hating for a small rocket.
这些泵，实际上都是转动机器，随着尺寸的增大，效率会更高。因此，制造极小的涡轮泵非常具有挑战性。例如，住房与压力化燃料的旋转叶轮之间必须保留一定的间隙。这些零件之间不能相互擦刮。而这些间隙会导致效率降低。因此，如果有一个非常大的涡轮泵，这些间隙在百分比上变得非常小。因此，关于拥有大型火箭，你会喜欢很多，而对于小型火箭，你反而会讨厌这些。
But there's a giant exception to this rule. And it is manufacturing. So manufacturing large structures is very, very challenging as a pain in the butt. And so if you're making a small rocket engine, you can move all the pieces by hand, you could assemble it on a table. One person can do it. You don't need cranes and heavy lift operations and tooling and so on and so on.
但是对于这个规则有一个很大的例外，那就是制造业。所以制造大型结构非常非常具有挑战性，非常麻烦。所以，如果你正在制造小型火箭发动机，你可以手动移动所有零件，可以在桌子上组装。一个人就可以做到。你不需要起重机、重型起重操作、工具等等。
When you start building big objects, infrastructure, civil infrastructure, just like the launch pad and all this, we went and visited and took you to the launch pad. And you can see it's so monumental. And so just these things become major undertakings, both from an engineering point of view, but also from a construction and cost point of view. And even the foundation of the launch pad, I mean, this is Florida. Isn't like Swampland? Like how deep did you go? You have to, at Cape Canaveral. In fact, most ocean, most launch pads are on beaches somewhere in the ocean side, because you want to launch over water for safety reasons. Yes, you have to drive pilings, dozens and dozens and dozens of pilings, 50, 150 feet deep to get enough structural integrity for these very large, yes, these turn into major civil engineering projects.
当你开始建造大型物体、基础设施、城市基础设施时，就像发射台和所有这些，我们去参观并带你去了发射台。你可以看到它是如此庞大。所以这些事情变成了重大的工程项目，既从工程角度，也从建筑和成本角度来看。甚至发射台的基础，我是说，这是佛罗里达。不是沼泽地吗？你深挖了多深？在卡纳维拉尔角，你必须，实际上，大多数发射台都建在海滩上，靠近海洋，因为出于安全考虑，你希望在水上发射。是的，你必须驱动大量的桩基，成百上千根，50到150英尺深，以获得足够的结构完整性，用于这些非常大型的工程。
I just have to say everything about that factory is pretty badass. You see, tooling, the bigger it gets, the more epic it is. It does make it epic. It's fun to look at. It's extraordinary. It's humbling also, because they're humans are so small compared to it. We are building these enormous machines that are harnessing enormous amounts of chemical power in very, very compact packages. It's truly extraordinary. But then there's all the different components and the materials involved.
我得说，这家工厂的一切都相当牛逼。你看，工具机器越大，就越令人叹为观止。这确实让它显得无比壮观。看着它就很有趣，非凡又令人敬畏，因为相比之下，人类真的微不足道。我们正在制造这些巨大的机器，将极大的化学能量装进非常紧凑的装置中。这真是太了不起了。但是，其中还涉及了各种不同的零部件和材料。
Is there something interesting that you can describe about the materials that comprise the rocket so it has to be as late as possible, I guess, whilst withstanding the heat and the harsh conditions? Yeah, I play a little kind of game sometimes with other rocket people that I run into where, say, what are the things that would amaze the 1960s engineers? What's changed? Because surprisingly, some of rocketry's greatest hits have not changed. They would recognize immediately a lot of what we do today, and it's exactly what they pioneered back in the 60s. But a few things have changed.
有没有一些有趣的事情，你能描述一下构成火箭的材料，这样的话它必须尽量晚一点出现，我猜，同时要能耐受高温和恶劣环境条件？是的，有时我与其他火箭人玩一个小游戏，问一下哪些事情会让20世纪60年代的工程师感到惊讶？有什么变化？令人惊讶的是，一些火箭科技的杰作并没有发生太大变化。他们立刻就能认出我们今天所做的许多事情，正是他们在60年代开创的。但也有一些事情发生了变化。
The use of carbon composites is very different today. We can build very sophisticated—you saw our carbon tape laying machine that builds the giant fairings. And we can build these incredibly light, very stiff fairing structures out of carbon composite material that they could not have dreamed of. The efficiency, the structural efficiency of that material is so high compared to any metallic material you might use or anything else. So that's one. Aluminum lithium and the ability to friction stir weld aluminum lithium. Do you remember the friction stir welding that I showed you? Yeah.
如今，碳复合材料的应用方式有了很大的不同。我们可以建造非常复杂的结构——你看到了我们的碳纤维条放置机，可以建造巨大的舱口结构。我们可以使用碳复合材料建造出轻而坚硬、极其轻巧的舱口结构，这是以前无法想象的。与任何金属材料或其他材料相比，碳复合材料的结构效率非常高。这是其中之一。另外还有铝锂材料以及对铝锂材料进行摩擦搅拌焊接的能力。你还记得我给你展示过的摩擦搅拌焊接吗？是的。
This is a remarkable technology. This invented decades ago but has become very practical over just the last couple of decades. And instead of using heat to weld two pieces of metal together, it literally stirs the two pieces. There's a pin that rotates at a certain rate, and you put that pin between the two plates of metal that you want to weld together, and then you move it at a very precise speed. And instead of heating the material, it heats it a little bit because of friction, but not very much. You can literally immediately, after welding, with stir friction welding, you can touch the material and it's just barely warm. It literally stirs the molecules together. It's quite extraordinary. Relatively low temperature, and I guess high temperatures will make them, that makes it a weak point.
这是一项引人注目的技术。它是几十年前发明的，但在过去的几十年中变得非常实用。与使用热量将两件金属零件焊接在一起不同，这项技术实际上是将这两个零件搅动在一起。有一个以一定速度旋转的销针，你把这个销针放在你想要焊接在一起的两个金属板之间，然后以非常精确的速度移动它。它并不会加热材料，由于摩擦而使材料稍微升温，但并不是很高。使用搅拌摩擦焊接后，你可以立即触摸材料，它只是微温的。它实际上是将分子搅拌在一起。这相当不同寻常。相对较低的温度，我猜高温会使其变成一个弱点。
Exactly. So with traditional welding techniques, you may have, whatever the underlying strength characteristics of the material are, you end up with weak regions where you weld. And with friction stir welding, the welds are just as strong as the bulk material. So it really allows you, and so, because when you're, let's say you're building a tank that you're going to pressurize, a large liquid natural gas tank for our booster stage, for example, if you are welding that with traditional methods, you have to size those weld lands, the thickness of those pieces with that knockdown for whatever damage you're doing with the weld. And that's going to add a lot of weight to that tank.
正是如此。因此，使用传统的焊接技术，不管材料的基本强度特性如何，你最后得到的焊接区域都会出现薄弱区域。而使用搅拌摩擦焊接技术，焊缝和原材料一样强大。所以它真正允许你，因此，例如，当你正在建造一个要进行加压的储罐，比如我们的助推阶段用于大型液化天然气储罐时，如果你使用传统方法焊接，你必须调整焊接区域的厚度，以抵消焊接可能造成的损伤。这将给该储罐增加很多重量。
I mean, even just looking at the fairings, the result of that, the complex shape that it takes, and what it's supposed to do is kind of incredible, because people don't know, it's on top of the rock, it's going to fall apart. That's its task, but it has to stay strong sometimes, and then disappear what it needs to. That's right. It's a very difficult task. Yes. When you need something that needs to have 100% integrity, until it needs to have zero percent integrity, it needs to stay attached until it's ready to go away, and then when it goes away, it has to go away completely. You use explosive charges for that, and so it's a very robust way of separating structure when you need to. Exploding.
我的意思是，即使只是看看舱盖，看看它的结果、它所采取的复杂形状以及它应该做的事情，都是令人难以置信的，因为人们并不知道它是如何在岩石顶端保持完整，然后又在适当时消失的。这是它的任务，但它有时必须保持强大，然后在需要时消失。没错，这是一项非常艰巨的任务。是的，当你需要的东西在需要时要百分之百完整，然后在不需要时要百分之零完整，它必须一直保持连接直到准备好离开，然后当它离开时，必须完全消失。你需要使用爆炸装置来实现这一点，所以这是一种非常强大的结构分离方式。爆炸。
Yeah. It was a little tiny bits of explosive material, and it'll sever the whole connection. So if you want to go from 100% structural integrity to zero as fast as possible, it's explosive. It's explosive. The idea of this thing is so badass.
是的。它是一点点微小的爆炸物质，能够切断整个连接。因此，如果你想尽可能快地从100%的结构完整度降到零，那就是爆炸。它非常爆炸。这个东西的想法真是太牛了。
Okay, so we're back to the two stages, so the first stage is reusable. Yeah. Second stage is expendable. Second stage is liquid hydrogen, liquid oxygen, so we get to take advantage of the higher specific impulse. The first stage lands downrange on a landing platform in the ocean, comes back for maintenance, and get ready to do the next mission.
好的，所以我们回到了两个阶段，第一阶段是可重复使用的。是的。第二阶段是一次性的。第二阶段是液态氢和液态氧，所以我们能够利用更高的比冲。第一阶段在海洋上的着陆平台上着陆，返回维护，并准备进行下一次任务。
I mean, there's a million questions, but also is there a path to always reusability for the second stage? There is, and we know how to do that. Right now, we're going to work on manufacturing that second stage to make it as inexpensive as possible, sort of two paths for a second stage. Make it reusable, or work really hard to make it inexpensive so you can afford to expend it. And that trade is actually not obvious which one is better. Even in terms of cost, even like time, cost. Even in terms of, and I'm talking about cost.
我的意思是，有无数个问题，但第二阶段的再利用是否有一条可行的道路呢？是的，我们知道如何做到这一点。现在，我们要致力于制造第二阶段，使其尽可能廉价，有两种选择。一种是使其可再利用，另一种是努力降低成本以承担得起损耗。而且，哪种选择更好其实并不明显，甚至在成本、时间等方面都是如此。我所说的成本就是指这些。
You know, space flight, getting into orbit is a solved problem. We solved it back in, you know, the 50s and 60s. The only thing that the only interesting problem is dramatically reducing the cost of access to orbit, which is if you can do that, you open up a bunch of new, you know, endeavors that lots of startup companies everybody else can do. So that's, we really, that's one of our missions is to, you know, be part of this industry and lower the cost to orbit so that there can be, you know, a kind of a renaissance, a golden age of people doing all kinds of interesting things in space.
你知道，太空飞行、进入轨道已经是一个解决了的问题。我们在50年代和60年代就已经解决了这个问题。唯一有趣的问题是如何大幅度降低进入轨道的成本，如果能够做到这一点，就可以开启一系列新的事业，让很多初创公司和其他人都能参与其中。所以，我们的使命之一就是成为这个行业的一部分，降低进入轨道的成本，以便在太空中进行各种有趣的活动的一个复兴和黄金时代。
I like how you said, getting to orbit is a solved problem. It's just the only interesting things reducing the cost. You know, you can describe every single problem facing human civilization that way. Physicists would say everything is a solved problem. We've solved everything. The rest is just, what's the Rutherford said that is just stamp collecting. There was just a detail. Some of the greatest innovations and inventions and, you know, brilliance is in that cost reduction stage, right? And you've had a long career of cost reduction.
我喜欢你说的话，关于达到轨道已经是一个解决方案的问题。降低成本才是唯一有趣的事。你知道，你可以用同样的方式描述人类文明所面临的每一个问题。物理学家会说一切问题都已经解决。我们已经解决了一切。剩下的只是所谓Rutherford所说的“邮票收集”。这只不过是一个细节。一些最伟大的创新、发明和才智都在于降低成本的阶段，对吧？而你在降低成本方面有着悠久的职业生涯。
For sure. And you know, when you, what does cost reduction really mean? It means inventing a better way. Yeah, exactly. Right. And when you invent a better way, you make the whole world richer. So, you know, whatever it was, I don't know how many thousands of years ago, somebody invented the plow. And when they invented the plow, they made the whole world richer because they made farming less expensive. And so it is a big deal to invent better ways. That's how the world gets richer.
当然。你知道，当你减少成本，真正意味着什么吗？它意味着创造一种更好的方法。是的，完全正确。当你发现一种更好的方法时，你使整个世界变得更富有。所以，你知道，不管是多少千年以前，有人发明了犁。当他们发明了犁时，他们使整个世界变得更富有，因为他们使农业成本更低。所以发明更好的方式是一件大事。这就是世界变得更富裕的方式。
So what are some of the biggest challenges on the manufacturing side? On the engineering side there, you're facing in working to get to the first launch of Newglen. The first launch is one thing. And we'll do that in 2024 coming up in this coming year. The real thing that's the bigger challenge is making sure that our factory is efficiently manufacturing at rate. So rate production. So consider if you want to launch Newglen, you know, 24 times a year. You need to manufacture a upper stage since they're expendable. Every, you know, twice a month, you need to do one every two weeks. So you need to be, you need to have all of your manufacturing facilities and processes and inspection techniques and acceptance tests and everything operating at rate.
从制造方面来说，最大的挑战是什么？在工程方面，在努力实现新发射场的首次发射时，你们面临着什么问题？首次发射只是其中一部分。我们将在2024年即将到来的这一年实现首次发射。更大的挑战是确保我们的工厂能够高效地进行生产。生产速率很重要。想象一下，如果你想每年发射新格伦24次，那么你需要每个月制造一个上面级，因为它们是一次性使用的。所以每两周你需要制造一个。因此，你需要确保你的所有制造设备、工艺和检测技术以及验收测试等都能达到要求的速率。
And rate manufacturing is at least as difficult as designing the vehicle in the first place and the same thing. So every, every upper stage has two BE3U engines. So those engines, you know, if you're going to launch the vehicle twice a month, you need four engines a month. So you need an engine every week. So you need to be, that engine needs to be being produced at rate. And that's a, and there's all of the things that you need to do that, all the right machine tools, all the right fixtures, the right people, process, etc. So it's one thing to build a first article, right? So that's, you know, we to launch Newglen for the first time, you need to produce a first article. But that's not the hard part. The hard part is everything that's going on behind the scenes to build a factory that can produce Newglens at rate.
制造率与设计一样困难，甚至更困难。因此，每个上级阶段都有两台BE3U发动机。如果你每月要发射两次飞行器，那么你每月需要四台发动机。所以你需要每周有一台发动机被生产出来。这需要许多事情的配合，包括合适的机械工具、夹具、合适的人员和流程等等。所以建造第一件样品只是一方面。为了第一次发射Newglen，你需要生产出第一件样品。但这并不是最困难的部分。最困难的是在幕后建造能以产量生产Newglen的工厂所需的一切。
So the first one is produced in a way that enables the production of the second and third and the fourth and the fifth and second. You could think of the first article as kind of pushing it, it pushes all of the rate manufacturing technology along. In other words, it's kind of the it's the test article in a way that's testing out your manufacturing technologies. The manufacturing is the big challenge.
所以第一个是以一种使第二个、第三个、第四个和第五个及第二个产生的方式生产的。你可以把第一篇文章看作是推动其他所有制造技术的先导，换句话说，它是以一种测试制造技术的方式进行测试的文章。制造是一个巨大的挑战。
Yes. I mean, I don't want to make it sound like any of it is easy. I mean, the people who are designing the engines and all of this, like all of it is hard for sure. But the challenge right now is driving really hard to get to rate manufacturing and to do that in an efficient way. Again, kind of back to our cost point. If you get to rate manufacturing in an inefficient way, you haven't really solved the cost problem and maybe you haven't really moved the state of the art forward.
是的。我的意思是，我不想让它听起来像是其中任何一部分都很容易。我的意思是，设计引擎和所有这些的人，肯定都很辛苦。但目前的挑战是非常努力地推动实施大规模生产，并以高效的方式进行。再次强调我们的成本问题。如果你以一种低效的方式进行大规模生产，那么你并没有真正解决成本问题，也许你并没有真正推动技术前沿的进步。
All this has to be about moving the state of the art forward. There are easier businesses to do. I always tell people, look, if you are trying to make money, you know, like start a salty snack food company or something, you know, you write that idea down. Like make the Lex Friedman potato chips. You know, this, don't say it is people going to steal it. But yeah, it's hard. You see what I'm saying. It's like, there's nothing easy about this business. But it's its own reward. It's fascinating. It's worthwhile. It's meaningful.
所有这些都必须努力推动艺术的前沿。还有更容易的生意可以做。我总是告诉人们，嗯，如果你想赚钱，比如开一家咸味小吃食品公司之类的，你可以记下这个想法，比如做"Lex Friedman薯片"。你知道，不用说会有人偷你的创意。但是嗯，这并不容易。你明白我的意思。就像这个生意没有什么容易的。但它就是它自己的回报。它很迷人。它值得。它有意义。
And so, you know, I don't want to pick on salty snack food companies, but I think it's less meaningful. You know, at the end of the day, you're not going to you're not going to have accomplished something amazing. Yeah, there's even if you do make a lot of money on it. Yeah, there's something fundamentally different about the quote unquote business of space exploration. Yeah, for sure. It's a grand project of humanity. Yes, it's one of humanity's grand challenges. And especially as you look at going to the moon and going to Mars and building giant oatmeal colonies and unlocking all the things, you know, I won't live long enough to see the fruits of this. But the fruits of this come from building a road to space, getting the infrastructure.
所以，你知道的，我不想挑剔咸零食公司，但我觉得它没有多大意义。毕竟，你不会完成一些了不起的事情。是的，即使你通过它赚了很多钱。是的，所谓的太空探索业务与其他业务根本不同。是的，确实如此。这是人类的宏大项目。是的，这是人类所面临的巨大挑战之一。尤其是当你考虑到登月、登火星和建立巨大的燕麦殖民地，并找到所有解锁的途径时，你会发现，我活不到看到这些成果的那一天。但这些成果是来自于建设通往太空的道路，建立基础设施。
I give you an analogy. When I started Amazon, I didn't have to develop a payment system. It already existed. It was called the credit card. I didn't have to develop a transportation system to deliver the packages. It already existed. It was called the postal service and Royal Mail and Deutsche Post and so on. So, all this heavy lifting infrastructure was already in place and I could stand on its shoulders. And that's why when you look at the internet, you know, by the way, another giant piece of infrastructure that was around in the early, I'm taking you back to like 1994, people were using dial up modems and it was piggybacking on top of the long distance phone network. That's how the internet, that's how people were accessing servers and so on.
我给你一个类比。当我开始亚马逊时，我不需要开发支付系统。它已经存在了，那就是信用卡。我也不需要开发运输系统来运送包裹。它已经存在了，那就是邮政服务、皇家邮政和德国邮政等等。所以，所有这些庞大的基础设施已经就位，我可以站在它们的肩膀上。这就是为什么当你看互联网时，你知道，顺便说一下，互联网是另一个巨大的基础设施，在早期，让我把你带回1994年左右，人们使用的是拨号调制解调器，它是依托于长途电话网络的。这就是互联网是如何运作的，人们通过这种方式访问服务器等等。
And that, again, if that hadn't existed, it would have been hundreds of billions of CAPEX to put that out there. No startup company could have done that. And so, the problem, you see, if you look at the dynamism in the internet space over the last 20 years, it's because you see like two kids in a dorm room could start an internet company that could be successful and do amazing things because they didn't have to build heavy infrastructure. It was already there. And that's what I wanted to do. I'd take, you know, my Amazon winnings and use that to build heavy infrastructure. So, the next generation, you know, the generation that's my children and their children, you know, those generations can then use that heavy infrastructure. Then there'll be space entrepreneurs who start in their dorm room.
而且，如果那个东西不存在的话，将需要数千亿加元的资本支出来完成这个项目。没有任何初创公司可以做到这一点。所以，问题就在这里，如果你看看过去20年互联网领域的活力，你会发现两个宿舍里的年轻人可以创办一家互联网公司并取得成功，因为他们不必建设庞大的基础设施，这已经有了。而这正是我想要做的。我会利用我的亚马逊收益来建设庞大的基础设施。这样，下一代，也就是我的孩子和他们的孩子，可以利用这个庞大的基础设施。然后就会有空间创业者从他们的宿舍开始创业。
Yeah. That would be a marker of success when you can have a really valuable space company started in a dorm room. Then we know that we've built enough infrastructure so that ingenuity and imagination can really be unleashed. I find that very exciting. They will, of course, as kids do take all of this hard infrastructure ability for granted. Of course. That's the entrepreneurial spirit. That's a, an inventor's greatest dream is that their inventions are so successful that they are one day taken for granted. You know, nobody thinks of Amazon as an invention anymore. Nobody thinks of customer reviews as an event. We pioneered customer reviews, but now they're so commonplace.
是的，当你能够在宿舍里创办一家非常有价值的太空公司，这将成为成功的标志。这样，我们就知道我们已经建立了足够的基础设施，以便真正释放出独创和想象力。我觉得这非常令人兴奋。当然，孩子们肯定会认为所有这些困难的基础设施能力理所当然。当然了，这就是创业精神。这是一个发明家最大的梦想，他们的发明能够如此成功，以至于有一天会被认为是理所当然的。你知道的，现在没有人再把亚马逊当作发明了。没有人再把顾客评论视为一件大事。我们是顾客评论的先驱，但现在它们如此普遍。
Same thing with one click shopping and so on. But that's a compliment. That's how, you know, you invent something that's so used, so beneficially used by so many people that they take it for granted.
同样的事情也发生在一键购物等方面。但这是一种称赞。这就是你如何发明一些被如此多人习以为常、有效地使用的东西。
I don't know about nobody. Every time I use Amazon, I'm still amazed how does this work? That proves you're a very curious explorer.
我什么都不知道。每次我使用亚马逊，我仍然惊讶它是如何运作的？这证明你是一个非常好奇的探索者。
All right. All right. Back to the rocket.
好的。好的。回到火箭上吧。
Timeline. You said 2024 as it stands now are both the first test launch and the launch of escapade explorers tomorrow is still possible in 2024. Yeah. Yeah. I think so.
时间表。您说目前为止，2024年既是首次测试发射，也是明天冒险探险家的发射的可能时间。是的。是的。我想是这样的。
For sure, the first launch and then we'll see if escapade goes on that or not. I think that the first launch for sure. And I hope escapade too. I hope.
当然，首先进行试运行，然后我们将看看这是否会成为一次轻松愉快的经历。我肯定首次试运行会发生。而且我希望这次能成为一次愉快的冒险。我希望。
Well, I just don't know which mission it's actually going to be slated on. So we also have other things that might go on that first mission. Oh, I got it. But you're optimistic that the launches will still.
嗯，我只是不知道它实际上会安排在哪个任务上。所以我们还有其他可能会在那个第一次任务上执行的事情。哦，我明白了。但你对发射仍然持乐观态度。
Oh, the first launch. I'm very optimistic that the first launch of New Glenn will be in 2024. And I'm just not 100% certain what payload will be on that first launch.
哦，第一次发射。我非常乐观地认为"新格伦"的首次发射将在2024年进行。但至于首次发射将搭载哪种有效载荷，我并不能百分之百确定。
Are you nervous about it? Are you kidding? I'm extremely nervous about it. Oh, man. 100%. Every launch I go for New Shepherd for other vehicles too, I'm always nervous for these launches. But yes, for sure. A first launch to have no nervousness about that would be some sign of derangement, I think.
你对此感到紧张吗？你在开玩笑吗？我对此非常紧张。噢，天啊。百分之百的紧张。每一次我为 New Shepherd 或其他航天器进行发射时，我总是紧张，但是确实如此。如果第一次发射没有一点紧张感，那可能是一种病态的迹象，我认为。
Well, I got to visit the launch, but it's pretty epic. You know, we have done a tremendous amount of ground testing, a tremendous amount of simulation. So, you know, a lot of the problems that we might find in flight have been resolved. But there are some problems you can only find in flight. So, you know, cross your fingers. I guarantee you'll have fun watching it no matter what happens. 100%.
好吧，我有机会参观一次发射行动，真是太壮观了。我们做了大量的地面测试和模拟，所以很多可能在飞行中出现的问题都已经解决了。但是有些问题只有在飞行中才能发现。所以，请祝我好运吧。无论发生什么事情，我保证你观看时会玩得很开心。百分之百肯定。
When the thing is fully assembled, it comes up. Yeah, the transporter erector, just a transporter erector for a rocket of this scale is extraordinary. That's an incredible machine. The vehicle travels out horizontally and then kind of, you know, comes up over a few hours. Yeah, it's a beautiful thing to watch.
当事物完全组装好时，它就会出现。是的，运输安装车，仅仅为了这种规模的火箭，运输安装车就非同寻常。这是一台令人难以置信的机器。该车水平行进，然后在几个小时内逐渐竖立起来。是的，观看这个过程非常美妙。
Speaking of which, if that makes you nervous, I don't know if you remember, but you were aboard a new shepherd on this first crude flight. How was that experience? Were you terrified then? You know, strangely, I wasn't, you know, I ride the rocket. It's true. I've watched other people ride in the rocket and I'm more nervous than when I was inside the rocket myself.
说到这个，如果这让你紧张的话，我不知道你是否还记得，但是你曾经登上一个新的牧羊人（指宇宙飞船）进行了第一次粗糙飞行。那个经历如何？当时你害怕吗？奇怪的是，你知道吗，我并没有那么害怕，我坐在火箭上。这是真的。我曾经看过其他人坐在火箭上，而那时候我比自己坐在火箭上更紧张。
It was a difficult conversation to have with my mother when I told her I was going to go on the first one. And not only was I going to go, but I was going to bring my brother to this is a tough conversation to have with a mom and there's a long pause. She's like, both of you.
当我告诉我妈妈我要参加第一次时，这是一次艰难的对话。而且不仅我要去，我还准备带上我的弟弟。这对于我来说是一次与妈妈进行的棘手对话，并且出现了一段长时间的沉默。她说：“你们两个都要去吗？”
And it was an incredible experience and we were, we were laughing and inside the capsule and, you know, we're not nervous. To people on the ground, we're very nervous for us. It was actually one of the most emotionally powerful parts of the experience was not, it happened even before the flight at 4.30 in the morning.
这是一次难以置信的经历，我们在太空舱内不断地笑着。你知道吗，我们一点也不紧张。对于地面上的人来说，他们对我们非常紧张。实际上，最令人感动的部分是在飞行之前的早上4点30分发生的。
Brother and I are getting ready to go to the launch site and Lauren is going to take us there in her helicopter and we're getting ready to leave and we go outside, outside the ranch house there in West Texas where the launch facility is.
我和兄弟正准备前往发射场地，Lauren将带我们乘坐她的直升飞机前往。我们正在准备离开，然后走出牧场内的房屋，这座房屋位于德克萨斯州西部，也是发射设施所在的地方。
And all of our family, my kids and my brother's kids and our, you know, our parents and close friends are assembled there and they're saying goodbye to us, but they're kind of saying maybe they think they're saying goodbye to us forever. And, you know, we might not have felt that way, but it was obvious from their faces how nervous they were that they felt that way.
我们所有的家人，我的孩子和我兄弟的孩子，还有我们的父母和亲密的朋友都聚集在那里，他们正在和我们告别，但也许他们认为他们正在永远地和我们告别。虽然我们可能并不是那样感觉，但从他们的脸上可以看出他们有多么紧张，他们确实那样认为。
And it was sort of powerful because it allowed us to see, almost like a 10-year-old memorial service or something like you could feel how loved you were in that moment. And it was, it was really amazing.
这件事有一种强大的力量，因为它让我们看到了像是一个10年纪念仪式之类的东西，你几乎能感受到在那一刻人们对你的爱。真是太神奇了。
Yeah. And I mean, there's just a epic nature to it too. The ascent, the floating zero gravity, I'll tell you something very interesting, zero gravity feels very natural. I don't know if it's because we, you know, it's like return to the womb or what it is. It just confirms your nailing, but I think that's what you just said.
是的。而且我的意思是，这件事本身也是一种史诗般的体验。攀登、漂浮的零重力，听我告诉你一个非常有趣的事，零重力感觉非常自然。我不知道是因为我们回到了子宫里还是其他什么原因。这只是确认了你所说的，我想这就是你刚才说的东西。
It feels so natural to be in zero G. It was really interesting. And then what people talk about the overview effect and seeing Earth from space, I had that feeling very powerfully. I think everyone did. You see how fragile the Earth is. If you're not an environmentalist, it will make you one.
在零重力环境中感觉如此自然。这真的很有趣。关于俯瞰效应和从太空看地球的那种感觉，我强烈地体验到了。我想每个人都有同样的感觉。你会看到地球是多么脆弱。即使你不是一个环保主义者，它也会让你成为一个。
The great Jim Lovell quote, you know, he looked back at the Earth from space and he said he realized you don't go to heaven when you die, you go to heaven when you're born. And it's just, you know, that's the feeling that people get when they're in space.
伟大的吉姆·洛维尔曾说，当他从太空中回望地球时，他意识到人并非等死后才进入天堂，而是在出生时就降临天堂。这仅仅是人们在太空中所体验到的感觉罢了。
You see all this blackness, all this nothingness, and there's one Jim of life and it's Earth. It is a Jim.
你看到了那么多黑暗，那么多虚无，而我们所拥有的一点生命就是地球。它是一个珍贵的存在。
What, you know, you've talked a lot about decision-making throughout your time with Amazon. What was that decision like to be the first to ride in your shepherd? Like what, just before you talk to your mom, what like the pros and cons, like actually as one human being, as a leader of a company on all fronts, like what was that decision-making like?
在你与亚马逊一起的时间里，你谈了很多关于决策的内容。作为第一个乘坐你的“牧羊人”飞船的人，你当初做这个决定的感受如何？在你跟你妈妈交谈之前，作为一个人，作为一家公司的领导者，从各个方面来看，这个决策的利弊如何？
I decided that first of all, I knew the vehicle extremely well. I know the team who built it. I know the vehicle. I'm very comfortable with the like the escape system. We put as much effort into the escape system on that vehicle as we put into all the rest of the vehicle combined. It's one of the hardest pieces of engineering in the entire new Shepherd architecture. Can you actually describe what do you mean by escape system? What's involved?
我决定首先，我非常了解这辆车。我认识建造它的团队。我了解这辆车。对于逃逸系统，我非常熟悉并且感到非常舒适。我们在这辆车的逃逸系统上付出了与其他所有部分相加起来一样多的努力。这是整个新谢泼德（New Shepherd）体系结构中最困难的工程之一。你能否描述一下你所说的逃逸系统是什么？它包括什么？
We have a solid rocket motor in the base of the crew capsule so that if anything goes wrong on ascent, you know, while the main rocket engine is firing, we can ignite this solid rocket motor in the base of the crew capsule and escape from the booster. It's a very challenging system to build, design, validate, test, all of these things. It is the reason that I am comfortable letting anyone go on new Shepherd. So the booster is as safe and reliable as we can make it. But we are harnessing, whenever you're talking about rocket engines, I don't care what rocket engine you're talking about, you are harnessing such vast power in such a small compact geometric space. The power density is so enormous that it is impossible to ever be sure that nothing will go wrong. And so the only way to improve safety is to have an escape system.
我们在船员舱底部安装了一个固体火箭发动机，这样如果在升空过程中出现任何问题，当主发动机正在运作时，我们就可以点燃船员舱底部的固体火箭发动机，从助推器中逃脱出来。这是一个非常具有挑战性的系统，需要建造、设计、验证和测试。正是因为这个原因，我才放心让任何人乘坐新的Shepherd航天器。因此，助推器的安全性和可靠性都是我们能够做到的最好的。但是，无论你讨论哪种火箭发动机，当谈到火箭发动机时，都会利用如此巨大的能量在如此小而紧凑的几何空间内。能量密度如此巨大，以至于无法确定不会出现任何问题。因此，提高安全性的唯一方法就是拥有一个逃生系统。
And you know, and historically rocket's human-rated rockets have had escape systems. Only the space shuttle did not. But Apollo had one, all of the previous Gemini, etc. They all had escape systems. And we have on new Shepherd, unusual escapes. Most escape systems are towers. We have a pusher escape system. So the solid rocket motor is actually embedded in the base of the crew capsule and it pushes. And it's reusable in the sense that if we don't use it, so if we have a nominal mission, we land with it. The tower systems have to be ejected at a certain point in the mission. And so they get wasted even in a nominal mission. And so again, you know, cost really matters on these things. So we figured out how to have the escape system be a reusable in the event that it's not used. You can reuse it and have it be a pusher system. It's a very sophisticated thing.
你知道，从历史上看，火箭的载人火箭通常都有逃逸系统。只有航天飞机没有。但阿波罗有一个，之前的所有美洲虎等都有。它们都有逃逸系统。而我们在新牧羊人号上有一种特殊的逃逸系统。大多数逃逸系统都是塔式的。而我们有一个推进器逃逸系统。所以固体火箭发动机实际上嵌入在船员舱底部并推动它。如果我们不使用它，它是可重复使用的，所以在正常任务中我们会带着它降落。而塔式系统必须在任务的特定阶段弹出。所以即使在正常任务中，它们也会被浪费。所以，你知道，成本在这些事情上真的很重要。因此，我们找到了一种方法，使逃逸系统在未使用时可以重复使用，并采用了推进器系统。这是一个非常复杂的东西。
So I knew these things. You asked me about my decision to go. And so I know the vehicle very well. I know the people who designed it. I have great trust in them and in the engineering that we did. And I thought to myself, look, if I am not ready to go, then I wouldn't want anyone to go. The tourism vehicle has to be designed, in my view, to be as safe as one can make it. You can't make it perfectly safe. It's impossible. But you know, people will take risk. They climb mountains. They skydive. They do deep underwater scuba diving and so on. People are okay taking risk. You can't eliminate the risk. But it is something because it's a tourism vehicle, you have to do your utmost to eliminate those risks. And I felt very good about the system. I think it's one of the reasons I was so calm inside. If you others weren't as calm, they didn't know as much about it as I did. What was in charge of engaging the escape systems? You have it's automated. Okay. The escape system is visualizing. It's completely automated. Automated is better because it can react so much faster.
所以我了解这些事情。你问我为什么决定去，所以我非常了解这辆车。我了解设计它的人。我对他们和我们所做的工程非常信任。而且我想，如果我自己还没准备好去，那么我也不会希望其他人去。在我看来，旅游车辆必须要设计得尽可能安全。不可能做到完全安全，这是不可能的。但是你知道，人们喜欢冒险。他们攀登山峰，跳伞，进行深海潜水等等。人们敢于冒险。你无法消除风险。但是因为这是一辆旅游车辆，你必须尽一切力量消除这些风险。而且我对这个系统非常有信心。这也是我内心如此平静的原因之一。如果其他人没有我了解得多，他们可能不会那么平静。负责启动逃生系统的是什么？是自动化的。好的。逃生系统是可视化的，完全自动化。自动化更好，因为它可以更快地做出反应。
So yeah, for tourism, rockets, safety is a huge, huge priority for space exploration also, but adults are less. Yes. I mean, I think if you're doing, there are human activities where we tolerate more risk if you're saving somebody's life. If you are engaging in real exploration, these are things where I personally think we would accept more risk, in part because you have to.
所以，对于旅游、火箭和安全来说，太空探索中的安全是一个巨大的优先事项，但对成年人来说要少一些。是的，我的意思是，我认为如果你正在挽救某人的生命，会对一些人类活动容忍更多的风险。如果你正在进行真正的探索，这些是我个人认为我们会接受更多风险的事情，部分原因是因为你不得不这样做。
Is there a part of you that's frustrated by the rate of progress in Blue Origin? Blue Origin needs to be much faster. It's one of the reasons that I left my role as the CEO of Amazon a couple of years ago. I wanted to come in and Blue Origin needs me right now. When I was the CEO of Amazon, my point of view on this is if I'm the CEO of a publicly traded company, it's going to get my full attention. It's just how I think about things. It was very important to me. I felt I had an obligation to all the stakeholders to Amazon to do that. So having turned the CEO, I was still the executive chair there, but I turned the CEO role over. The primary reason I did that is so that I could spend time with Blue Origin adding some energy, some sense of urgency. We need to move much faster, and we're going to.
你内心是否对蓝色起源进展的速度感到沮丧？蓝色起源需要更快。这也是我几年前离开亚马逊首席执行官职位的原因之一。我希望加入蓝色起源，它现在需要我。当我还是亚马逊首席执行官时，我对此的看法是，如果我是一家上市公司的首席执行官，它将完全得到我的关注。我就是这样思考问题的。这对我来说非常重要。我觉得我有责任对亚马逊的所有利益相关者做到这一点。所以我辞去了首席执行官的职位，但仍然是执行主席。我这样做的主要原因是为了能有时间和蓝色起源一起加油，增加一些紧迫感。我们需要更快地前进，我们会的。
What are the ways to speed it up? You've talked a lot of different ways to sort of add Amazon removing barriers for progress, distributing, making everybody autonomous and stuff reliant in terms of all those kinds of things. Is that apply at Blue Origin? It does apply. I'm leading this directly. We are going to become the world's most decisive company across any industry.
有哪些方法可以加快速度？你谈到了很多不同的方法，以便为进展消除障碍，进行分发，并使每个人都能够自主并依赖种种事物。这些方法在蓝色起源（Blue Origin）也适用吗？是的，它适用。我将直接领导这个人。我们将成为任何行业中最果断的公司。
At Amazon, for ever since the beginning, we're going to become the world's most customer-obsessed company, no matter the industry. One day, people are going to come to Amazon from the health care industry and want to know, how are you so customer-obsessed? How do you actually not just pay lip services that but actually do that? All different industries should come on to study us to see how we accomplish that.
在亚马逊，自始至终，我们将成为全球最注重客户的公司，无论所在的行业如何。总有一天，来自医疗保健行业的人们会来到亚马逊，并想知道，你们是如何如此注重客户的？你们如何确实不仅停留在口头上，而是真正实践这一点？各个行业都应该来学习我们，看看我们是如何实现这一目标的。
The analogous thing at Blue Origin and it will help us move faster is we're going to become the world's most decisive company. We're going to get really good at taking appropriate technology risk and making those decisions quickly, being bold on those things. That's what and having the right culture that supports that, you need people to be ambitious, technically ambitious. If there are five ways to do something, we'll study them, but let's study them very quickly and make a decision. We can always change our mind.
在蓝色起源公司，类似的事情将会帮助我们加速发展，那就是成为世界上最果断的企业。我们将发展出在适当的技术风险上作出明智决策的能力，并迅速执行这些决策，对这些事情要有勇气。这就需要有一个支持这一点的正确文化，我们需要有雄心壮志的人，有技术上的雄心壮志。如果有五种方法可以做某件事，我们会研究它们，但要快速做出决策。我们随时可以改变主意。
Changing your mind, I talked about one-way doors and two-way doors. Most decisions are two-way doors. Can you explain that because I love that metaphor? If you make the wrong decision, if it's a two-way door decision, you pick a door, you walk out, you spend a little time there, it turns out to be the wrong decision, you can come back in and pick another door. Some decisions are so consequential and so important and so hard to reverse that they really are one-way door decisions. You go in that door, you're not coming back and those decisions have to be made very deliberately, very carefully. If you can think of yet another way to analyze the decision, you should slow down and do that.
改变主意的时候，我提到了单向门和双向门。大多数决策都是双向门。可以解释一下吗？因为我喜欢那个比喻。如果你做出了错误的决策，如果是双向门的决策，你选择一个门，走出去，花一些时间后发现是错误的决策，你可以回来重新选择另一个门。有些决策非常重要，对后果有重大影响，而且很难逆转，它们是单向门决策。你进入那个门，就没有回头的机会了，这些决策必须经过深思熟虑，非常仔细地做出。如果你能想到另一种分析决策的方法，你应该放慢脚步，并这样做。
When I was CEO of Amazon, I often found myself in the position of being the chief slowdown officer because somebody would be bringing me a one-way door decision. I know it's okay. I can think of three more ways to analyze that. Let's go do that because we are not going to be able to reverse this one easily. Maybe you can reverse it if it's going to be very costly and very time-consuming. We really have to get this one right from the beginning.
当我担任亚马逊的首席执行官时，我常常发现自己处于“减速主管”的位置，因为有人会给我带来一个无法回头的决策。我知道没关系，我可以想出另外三种分析途径。我们走吧，因为我们不容易能够逆转这个决策。也许如果这要花费很高的代价和很多时间，你可以去逆转它。但我们真的必须从一开始就把这个决策做对。
What happens, unfortunately, in companies, what can happen is that you have a one-size-all decision-making process where you end up using the heavyweight process on all decisions, including the lightweight ones, the two-way door decisions. Two-way door decisions should mostly be made by single individuals or by very small teams deep in the organization. One-way door decisions are the first ones. Those are the ones that should be elevated up to the senior-most executives who should slow them down and make sure that the right thing is being done. Part of the skill here is to know the difference in one-way and two-way.
不幸的是，很多公司都存在这样的情况：决策过程都是一刀切的，不管是大事还是小事，都使用了笨重的流程。然而，轻量级的决策应该由个人或者组织内部的小团队来做出。而一刀切的决策是首要的决策，应该上报给高层执行官来慢慢审查，并确保做出正确的决策。在这里需要一部分技巧，就是了解一刀切和轻量级决策的区别。
I think you mentioned Amazon Prime, the decision to create Amazon Prime as a one-way door. It's not clear if it is or not, but it probably is. It's a really big risk to go there. There are a bunch of decisions like that that are changing the decision is going to be very, very complicated. Some of them are technical decisions too because some technical decisions are quick-drying cement. Once you make them, it gets really hard choosing which propellants to use in a vehicle. Selecting LNG for the booster stage and selecting hydrogen for the upper stage, that has turned out to be a very good decision. But if you change your mind, that would be a very big setback. Do you see what I was saying? That's the kind of decision you scrutinize very, very carefully. Other things just aren't like that. Most decisions are not that way. Most decisions should be made by single individuals, but they need and done quickly in the full understanding that you can always change your mind.
我觉得你提到了亚马逊Prime，把它作为一个“单行通道”的决定。目前还不清楚它是否真的是这样，但很可能是的。这是一个非常大的风险。还有很多像这样的决策会使得决策变得非常复杂。其中一些还涉及技术方面的决策，因为有些技术决策就像是干得很快的水泥。一旦你做出了这些决策，选择在车辆中使用哪种推进剂就会变得非常困难。选择液化天然气作为助推器的动力阶段，选择氢气作为上层阶段的动力，这被证明是个非常好的决定。但是，如果你改变主意，那将是一个非常大的挫折。你明白我在说什么吗？这种决策需要非常仔细地审查。其他事情则不是这样。大多数决策并非如此。大多数决策应该由个体做出，并且需要快速做出，同时要充分理解你总是可以改变主意。
One of the things I really liked, perhaps it's not two-way door decisions, is I disagree and commit phrase. Somebody brings up an idea to you. If the two-way door, you state that you don't understand enough to agree, but you still back them. I'd love for you to explain it.
我真正喜欢的一件事，也许它不是双向门决策，是“我不同意但我承诺支持”的表述。有人向你提出一个想法。如果这是一个双向门决策，你会表示你不理解得足够好以便同意，但你仍然会支持他们。我希望你能解释一下。
Yeah, I disagree and commit is a really important principle that saves a lot of arguing. I want to use that my personal life. I disagree, but commit. It's very common in any endeavor in life, in business, in anybody where you have teammates. You have a teammate and the two of you disagree. At some point, you have to make a decision.
是的，我不同意并且"坚定承诺"是一个非常重要的原则，可以避免很多争论。我想在我的个人生活中应用这个原则。无论是在生活中、商业中还是与任何拥有团队成员的地方，都非常常见。当你与一个队友意见不合时，你必须在某个时刻做出决定。
In companies, we tend to organize hierarchically. Whoever is the more senior person ultimately gets to make the decision. Ultimately, the CEO gets to make that decision. The CEO may not always make the decision that they agree with. I would often, I would be the one who would disagree and commit. One of my draft reports would very much want to do something in a particular way. I would think it was a bad idea. I would explain my point of view. They would say, Jeff, I think you're wrong, and here's why. We would go back and forth.
在公司中，我们往往按照层级组织。无论是谁的资历更高，最终都能决定事情。最终，CEO有权做出决策。CEO并不总是会做出他们同意的决定。我通常会提出异议并坚持自己的观点。我的一份草稿报告可能会希望以某种特定方式做事。而我认为这是一个不好的主意。我会解释我的观点。他们会说，Jeff，我认为你错了，这是为什么。我们会互相讨论。
I would often say, you know what? I don't think you're right, but I'm going to gamble with you. You're closer to the ground truth than I am. I had known you for 20 years. You have great judgment. I don't know that I'm right either, not really, not for sure. All these decisions are complicated. Let's do it your way. But at least then you've made a decision. I'm agreeing to commit to that decision. I'm not going to be second-guessing it. I'm not going to be sniping at it. I'm not going to be saying, I told you so. I'm going to try actively to help make sure it works.
我经常会说，你知道吗？我不认为你是对的，但我愿意跟你一起冒险。你比我更接近事实真相。 我认识你已经20年了。你有很好的判断力。我也不确定我是对的，真的，不是很确定。所有这些决定都很复杂。就按你的方式来吧。但至少这样你已经下定决心。我同意坚定这个决定。我不会去反复思考它。我不会对它指手画脚。我不会说“我早就告诉你了”。我会积极努力确保它成功。
That's a really important teammate behavior. There's so many ways that dispute resolution is a really interesting thing on teams. There are so many ways that two people disagree about something. I'm assuming that the case where everybody is well intentioned. They just have a very different opinion about what the right decision is. We have in our society and inside companies, we have a bunch of mechanisms that we use to resolve these kinds of disputes.
这是非常重要的团队成员行为。在团队中，解决争议有很多种方式，这是一件非常有趣的事情。有很多情况下，两个人对某件事情有不同意见。我假设这种情况下每个人都是出于善意。只是对于正确决策有着非常不同的观点。在我们的社会和公司内部，我们有很多机制来解决这类争议。
A lot of them are, I think, really bad. An example of a really bad way of coming to agreement is compromise. Compromise. We're in a room here and I could say, Lex, how tall do you think this ceiling is? You'd be like, I don't know, Jeff. Maybe 12 feet tall. I would say, I think it's 11 feet tall. Then we'd say, let's just call it 11 and a half feet. That's compromise. Instead of the right thing to do is to get a tape measure or figure out some way of actually measuring.
很多人我认为都做得很糟糕。一个很糟糕的达成一致的方式例子是妥协。妥协。我们现在在一个房间里，我可以问Lex，你觉得这个天花板有多高？你可能会回答，我不知道，Jeff，可能有12英尺高。然后我会说，我认为它是11英尺高。然后我们会说，我们就叫它11.5英尺吧，这就是妥协。而正确的做法是拿出卷尺或者找一种实际测量的方法。
Think getting that tape measure and figure out how to get it to the top of the ceiling and all these things, that requires energy. Compromise the advantage of compromise as a resolution mechanism is that it's low energy. But it doesn't lead to truth. In things like the height of the ceiling where truth is a noble thing, you shouldn't allow compromise to be used when you can know the truth.
想一想，拿起那个卷尺，想办法将其放到天花板的顶部以及完成这些任务，这都需要能量。妥协的优势作为解决机制是它需要的能量较低。但妥协不能带来真相。在像天花板高度这样真相至关重要的事情上，当你可以知道真相时，不应该使用妥协。
Another really bad resolution mechanism that happens all the time is just who's more stubborn. Let's say two executives who disagree. And they just have a war of attrition in which everyone gets exhausted first, capitulates to the other one. Again, you haven't arrived at truth. And this is very demoralizing.
另一种经常发生的非常糟糕的解决机制是谁更顽固。假设有两位不同意的高管，他们就会进行一场消耗战，每个人都首先筋疲力尽，向另一方屈服。再次强调，你并没有得出真相。这种情况非常令人灰心丧气。
So, this is where escalation, I try to ask people who on my team, say, never get to a point where you are resolving something by who gets exhausted first. Escalate that. I'll help you make the decision. That's because that's so de-energizing and such a terrible lousy way to make a decision. Do you want to get to the resolution as quickly as possible because that ultimately leads to high velocity of this? Yes. And you want to try to get as close to truth as possible.
所以，这就是升级的地方，我试着问问我的团队成员，说，永远不要让决策由谁先精疲力尽来解决。要升级。我会帮你做出决定。这是因为这种方式非常让人消沉，是一种糟糕的决策方式。你想尽快解决问题，因为这最终会导致高速发展吗？是的。并且你想尽量接近真相。
So, you want exhausting the other person is not truth seeking and compromise is not truth seeking. So, there are a lot of cases where no one knows the real truth and that's where disagreeing, commit, can come in. But escalation is better than war of attrition. Escalate to your boss and say, hey, we can't agree on this. We like each other. We're respectful of each other, but we strongly disagree with each other. We need you to make a decision here so we can move forward.
所以，你希望让对方疲惫不堪的做法并不是在寻求真相，而妥协也不是在寻求真相。所以，有很多情况下没有人真正知道真相，这就是意见分歧和承诺的地方。但升级比战争消耗更好。向你的老板升级并说：“嘿，我们在这个问题上无法达成一致。我们喜欢彼此并且相互尊重，但我们对彼此的意见非常不同。我们需要你作出一个决定，这样我们可以继续前进。”
But decisiveness moving forward quickly on decisions as quickly as you responsibly can is how you increase velocity. Most of what slows things down is taking too long to make decisions at all skill levels. So, it has to be part of the culture to get high velocity. Amazon has a million and a half people and the company is still fast. We're still decisive. We're still quick. And that's because the culture supports that. At every scale in a distributed way, yeah, maximize the velocity of decisions.
但是，在你有责任的前提下，迅速做出决策是提高速度的方式。大多数使事情变慢的原因是在各个技能水平上花费太长时间来做决策。因此，这必须成为培养高速度的文化的一部分。亚马逊有一百五十万员工，但公司仍然很快。我们依然果断。我们依然迅速。这是因为文化支持这一点。在各个规模上以分布式方式，是的，极大地提高决策的速度。
Exactly. You've mentioned the lunar program. Let me ask you about that. Yeah. There's a lot going on there and you haven't really talked about it much. So, in addition to the Artemis program with NASA, Blue is doing its own lander program. Can you describe it? There's a sexy picture on Instagram with one of them. Is it the MK1? Yeah. The mark one, the picture is me with Bill Nelson, the NASA administrator. Just to clarify, the lander is the sexy thing about the instrument. Hahaha! I know it's not. I know it's either the lander or bill. Okay. I like Bill, but yeah. Thank you.
没错。你提到了月球计划。让我问问你关于这个的事情。是的。那里正在进行很多工作，而你并没有详细地谈论过它。所以，除了NASA的阿尔忒米斯计划外，Blue还在进行自己的着陆器计划。你能描述一下吗？在Instagram上有一张很酷的照片。是MK1吗？是的。Mark One，照片上是我和NASA管理员比尔·尼尔森。只是为了澄清，着陆器是那个仪器中的酷炫部分。哈哈哈！我知道不是。我知道它要么是着陆器，要么是比尔。好吧，我喜欢比尔，但是是的。谢谢。
Yes, the Mark 1 lander is designed to take 3,000 kilograms to the surface of the moon and cargo, expendable cargo. It's expendable lander, lands on the moon, stays there, take 3,000 kilograms to the surface. It can be launched on a single, new-glenn flight, which is very important. So, it's a relatively simple architecture, just like the human landing system lander, called the MK2. Mark 1 is also fueled with liquid hydrogen, and which is for high energy missions like landing on the surface of the moon, the high specific impulse of hydrogen is a very big advantage. The disadvantage of hydrogen has always been that it's such a deep cryogen. It's not storeable, so it's constantly boiling off and you're losing propellant because it's boiling off. And so what we're doing as part of our lunar program is developing solar-powered cryocoolers that can actually make hydrogen a storeable propellant for deep space.
是的，马克一号着陆器的设计初衷是将3000公斤的货物运送到月球表面，这些货物是一次性的。它是一种一次性的着陆器，着陆在月球上，停留在那里，将3000公斤的货物运送到表面。它可以在一次新格伦飞行中发射，这非常重要。因此，它是一种相对简单的架构，就像人类登月系统的着陆器MK2一样。马克一号也使用液氢作为燃料，这对于像登陆月球这样的高能任务来说，氢的高比冲是一个非常大的优势。氢的劣势一直是它是一种非常深的低温气体。它是不可储存的，因此它不断沸腾，会丢失推进剂。因此，作为我们月球计划的一部分，我们正在开发太阳能驱动的低温冷却器，可以使氢成为可储存的深空推进剂。
And that's a real game changer. It's a game changer for any high energy missions, so to the moon, but to the outer planets, to Mars everywhere. So, the idea with both MK1 and MK2 is the new glenkin carry it from the surface of Earth to the surface of the moon. Exactly. So, the MK1 is expendable. The lunar lander we're developing for NASA, the MK2 lander, that's part of the Artemis program. They call it the sustaining lander program. So, that lander is designed to be reusable. It can land on the surface of the moon in a single stage configuration and then take off. So, the whole, you know, if you look at the Apollo program, the lunar lander in Apollo was really two stages. It would land on the surface, and then it would leave the descent stage on the surface of the moon. And only the ascent stage would go back up into lunar orbit where it would rendezvous with the command module. Here, what we're doing is we have a single stage lunar lander that carries down enough propellant so that it can bring the whole thing back up so that it can be reused over and over. And the point of doing that, of course, is to reduce cost so that you can make lunar missions more affordable over time, which is, that's one of NASA's big objectives, because this time, the whole point of Artemis is go back to the moon, but this time to stay.
而这是一次真正的游戏改变者。对于任何高能量任务来说，这是一次游戏改变者，无论是前往月球，还是外行星，还是火星的任何地方。所以，MK1和MK2的想法是用新的格伦金（Glenkin）将其从地球表面运送到月球表面。确切的。 MK1是一次性的。我们为美国宇航局开发的登月器，即MK2登月器，是阿波罗计划的一部分。他们称之为持续登陆计划。因此，该登月器的设计是可重复使用的。它可以以单级配置在月球表面着陆，然后起飞。所以，你知道，如果你看一下阿波罗计划，阿波罗的登月器实际上是两个阶段。它会在表面着陆，然后将下降阶段留在月球表面。只有上升阶段会返回到绕月轨道，然后与指令模块会合。而我们在这里做的是拥有一个单一级别的登月器，它带下足够的推进剂，以便整个器件可以重新升空，以便可以反复使用。当然，这样做的目的是为了降低成本，以便随着时间的推移，使月球任务更加经济实惠，这是美国宇航局的一个重要目标，因为这次，阿尔忒弥斯（Artemis）的一个重要目标是回到月球，但这次是为了留下来。
So, you know, back in the Apollo program, we went to the moon six times and then ended the program, and it really was too expensive to continue. And so, there's a few questions there, but one is how do you stay on the moon? What ideas do you have about? Yeah, like a sustaining life where a few folks can stay there for prolonged periods of time. Well, one of the things we're working on is using lunar resources, like lunar regolith, to manufacture commodities and even solar cells on the surface of the moon. We've already built a solar cell that is completely made from lunar regolith stimulant, and this solar cell is only about 7% power efficient, so it's very inefficient compared to, you know, the more advanced solar cells that we make here on Earth. But if you can figure out how to make a practical solar cell factory that you can land on the surface of the moon, and then the raw material for those solar cells is simply lunar regolith, then you can just, you know, continue to churn out solar cells on the surface of the moon, have lots of power on the surface of the moon. That will make it easier for people to live on the moon.
回到阿波罗计划时期，我们曾六次登上月球，然后结束了这个计划，因为继续进行实在太昂贵了。所以，这里有几个问题，其中一个就是如何在月球上生存？你对此有什么想法吗？比如，怎样让少数人长时间停留在那里。嗯，我们正在研究的其中一个方向是利用月球资源，比如月壤，来制造商品甚至是太阳能电池。我们已经制造出一款完全由月壤模拟物制成的太阳能电池，但它的效率只有7%，与我们在地球上制造的更先进的太阳能电池相比非常低效。但是，如果我们能够找到一种实用的太阳能电池工厂，可以将其着陆在月球表面，而制造太阳能电池的原料仅仅是月壤的话，那么我们就能够在月球表面继续生产太阳能电池，为月球表面供应大量电力。这将使人们更容易在月球上生活。
Similarly, we're working on extracting oxygen from lunar regolith. So, lunar regolith by weight has a lot of oxygen in it. It's bound very tightly, you know, as oxides with other elements, and so you have to separate the oxygen, which is very energy intensive. So, that also could work together with the solar cells.
类似地，我们正在努力从月壤中提取氧气。月壤中含有大量的氧气，按重量计算。你知道，它以氧化物的形式与其他元素结合得非常紧密，因此你必须分离出氧气，这需要非常高能耗。因此，这也可以与太阳能电池相辅相成。
But if you can, and then ultimately, we may be able to find practical quantities of ice in the permanently shadowed craters on the poles of the moon. And we know there is ice water in those, or water ice in those craters, and we know that we can break that down with electrolysis into hydrogen and oxygen. And then you'd not only have oxygen, but you'd also have very good high efficiency propellant fuel in hydrogen.
但是如果可能的话，最终我们可能能够在月球极地的永久阴影坑中找到实用数量的冰。我们知道那些坑里有冰水，或者水冰，我们也知道我们可以通过电解将其分解成氢和氧。这样你不仅会得到氧气，还会得到非常高效的氢推进剂燃料。
So, there's a lot we can do to make the moon more sustainable over time. But the very first step, the thing, the kind of gate that all of that has to go through is we need to be able to land cargo and humans on the surface of the moon at an acceptable cost.
因此，有很多我们可以做的事情，以使月球在未来更可持续。但是，所有这些事情必须经过的第一步是我们需要能够以可接受的成本将货物和人类降落在月球表面。
To fast forward a little bit, is there any chance Jeff Bezos steps foot on the moon and on Mars, one or the other or both? It's very unlikely. I think it's probably something that gets done by future generations by the time it gets to me. I think in my lifetime, that's probably going to be done by professional astronauts. Sadly, I would love to sign up for that mission. So, don't count me out yet, Lex. Give me a finding shot here, maybe. But I think if we're if we are placing reasonable bets on such a thing, in my lifetime, that will continue to be done by professional astronauts.
稍稍快进一下，杰夫·贝佐斯有可能登上月球或火星吗，其中之一或两者都有可能吗？这是非常不可能的。我认为这可能是由未来的几代人完成的，到我这一代人的时候可能已经实现了。我认为在我的有生之年，这将由专业宇航员来完成。遗憾的是，我很愿意参加这样的任务。所以，别轻易排除我，Lex。也许给我一个找到机会的机会。但是我认为如果我们对这样的事情进行合理的押注，在我的有生之年，这将继续由专业宇航员来完成。
Yes, these are risky, difficult missions. And probably missions that require a lot of training. You are going there for a very specific purpose to do something. We're going to be able to do a lot on the moon too with automation. So, in terms of setting up these factories and doing all that, we're sophisticated enough now with automation that we probably don't need humans to tend those factories and machines. So, there's a lot that's going to be done in both modes.
是的，这些都是冒险且困难的任务。而且这些任务可能需要大量的培训。你去那里有一个非常具体的目的要完成某件事情。我们在月球上也可以通过自动化来完成很多工作。因此，在建立这些工厂和完成所有任务方面，我们现在已经具备足够的自动化技术，可能不再需要人类来照料这些工厂和机器。因此，这两种模式下将有许多任务要完成。
So, I have to ask the bigger picture question about the two companies pushing humanity forward out towards the stars, Blue Origin and SpaceX. Are you competitors, collaborators, which, to what degree? Well, I would say, just like the internet is big and there are lots of winners at all skill levels. I mean, there are half a dozen giant companies that the internet has made, but they're a bunch of medium-sized companies and a bunch of small companies, all successful, all with profit streams, all driving great customer experiences. That's what we want to see in space, that kind of dynamism. And space is big. There's room for a bunch of winners and it's going to happen at all skill levels. And so, SpaceX is going to be successful for sure. I want Blue Origin to be successful. And I hope there are another five companies right behind us. But, you know, I spoke to Elon a few times recently about you, about Blue Origin. And he was very positive about you as a person and very supportive of all the efforts you've been leading at Blue.
所以，我不得不问一个关于推动人类走向星星的两个公司的更大问题，蓝色起源（Blue Origin）和SpaceX。你们是竞争对手，还是合作伙伴，程度如何？嗯，我会说，就像互联网一样，它非常庞大，有许多不同技能水平的赢家。我的意思是，互联网创造了半打巨型公司，还有一批中等规模的公司和一批小公司，它们都很成功，都有获利来源，都提供了出色的客户体验。这就是我们希望在太空看到的那种活力。而太空很广阔。有很多获胜者的空间，而且各种技能水平都会涌现出成功。所以，SpaceX肯定会成功。我希望蓝色起源也会成功。而且我希望在我们之后还会有另外五家公司。但是，你知道吗，最近我与埃隆多次谈论了你和蓝色起源的情况。他对你个人非常积极，并且对你在蓝色起源领导的所有努力都给予了大力支持。
What's your thoughts? You worked with a lot of leaders at Amazon and at Blue. What's your thoughts about Elon as a human being and a leader? Well, I don't really know Elon very well. You know, I know his public persona, but I also know you can't know anyone by their public persona. It's impossible. I mean, you may think you do, but I guarantee you don't. So, I don't really know, you know, Elon way better than I do, Lex. But, in terms of his judging by the results, he must be a very capable leader. There's no way you could have, you know, Tesla and SpaceX without being a capable leader. It's impossible.
你如何看待这个问题？你在亚马逊和Blue公司与许多领导者合作过。你对埃隆作为一个人和领导者有什么看法？嗯，我不太了解埃隆。你知道，我只了解他公众形象，但我也知道只凭公众形象无法真正了解一个人。这是不可能的。我是说，你可能认为你了解他，但我保证你并不了解。所以，埃隆对我来说并不比你了解得更多。但就结果而言，他肯定是一个非常有能力的领导者。没有办法，你要拥有特斯拉和SpaceX这两个公司，就必须是一个有能力的领导者。这是不可能的。
Yeah, I just, I hope you guys hang out sometimes, shake hands and sort of have a kind of friendship that would inspire just the entirety of humanity. Because what you're doing is like one of the big grand challenges ahead for humanity. Well, I agree with you. And I think in a lot of these endeavors, we're very like-minded. Yeah.
是的，我希望你们能有时候一起出去玩，握手，并且建立一种友谊，它能激发人类整体的思维。因为你们正在面临人类的重大挑战之一。嗯，我同意你的观点。而且我认为在很多这样的努力中，我们的思想是非常相似的。嗯。
So, I think, you know, I'm not saying we're identical, but I think we're very like-minded. And so, I, you know, I love that idea. I go back to sexy pictures on your Instagram.
所以，我想，你知道，我并不是说我们完全一样，但我觉得我们非常心灵相通。因此，我喜欢那个想法。我回头看了一些你在Instagram上的性感照片。
There's a video of you from the early days of Amazon giving a tour of your quote, sort of offices. I think your dad is holding the camera. He is. Yeah, I know. I guess. This is what the giant orange extension cord. Yeah. And you're like explaining the genius of the extension cord. And how is it? This is a desk and a CRT monitor and sort of that's where the, that's where all the magic happens. I forget what your dad said, but this is like the center of it all.
有一段早期亚马逊的视频，记录了你领导参观办公室的情景。我想摄像机是你的爸爸在拿着的。没错，我知道。我猜这是一个巨大的橙色延长线。是的。你还解释了这个延长线的妙处。它是怎样的呢？这是一个桌子和一个CRT显示器，这就是一切"魔法"发生的地方。我忘记你爸爸说了什么，但这就是一切的中心。
So, what was it like? What was going to your mind at that time? You left a good job in New York and took this leap. Are you excited? Were you scared? So excited and scared, anxious, you know, thought the odds of success were low.
那么，这是什么感觉呢？在那个时候，你心里在想些什么？你放弃了纽约的一份好工作，选择了这样的飞跃。你感到激动吗？你害怕吗？非常激动和害怕，焦虑不安，你知道成功的几率不高。
I told all of our early investors that I thought there was a 30% chance of success by which I just been getting your money back, not like turning out what actually happened because that's the truth. Every startup company is unlikely to work. It's helpful to be in reality about that. But that doesn't mean you can't be optimistic. So you kind of have to have this duality in your head. Like you, on the one hand, you're, you know what the baseline statistics say about startup companies. And the other hand, you have to ignore all of that and just be 100% sure it's going to work. And you're doing both things the same time. You're holding that contradiction in your head.
我告诉所有的早期投资者，我认为成功的机会有30%，只是会让你们拿回本金，而不是像实际发生的那样，因为这就是事实。每个创业公司都不太可能成功。对此保持现实是有帮助的。但这并不意味着你不能乐观。所以你必须在脑海中保持这种二元性。一方面，你知道有关创业公司的基本统计数据。而另一方面，你必须忽略这一切，只相信它会百分之百成功。你要同时做两件事，将这种矛盾保持在心中。
But it was so, so exciting. I love, you know, every from 1994 when the company was founded, 1995, when we opened our doors all the way until today, it's, I find Amazon so exciting. And that doesn't mean it's like full of pain, full of problems. You know, it's like, there's so many things that need to be resolved and worked and made better and, and etc. But, but on balance, it's so fun. It's such a privilege. It's been such a joy. I feel so grateful that I've been part of that journey. It's just been incredible.
但是这个过程真的很令人兴奋。你知道的，自从1994年公司成立，1995年我们开始营业以来，一直到现在，我觉得亚马逊真的很令人兴奋。这并不意味着它充满了痛苦和问题。你知道的，有很多事情需要解决、改进和完善等等。但是，总体而言，这真的很有趣。这真的是一种特权。这真的很开心。我感到非常幸运能够参与这个旅程。这一切令人难以置信。
So in some sense, you don't want a single day of comfort. You've written about this many times. We'll talk about your writing, which I would highly recommend people read in just the letters to shareholders. So you wrote up explaining the idea of day one thinking. I think you first wrote about in 97 letters to shareholders. Then you also, in a way, wrote about, sad to say, is your last letter to shareholders and CEO. And you've said that day two is stasis, followed by irrelevance, followed by excruciating painful decline, followed by death. And that is why it's always day one. Can you explain this day one thing? This is a really powerful way to describe the beginning and the journey of Amazon. It's, it's really a very simple and I think age old idea about renewal and rebirth. And like every day is day one. Every day you're deciding what you're going to do. And you are not trapped by what you were or who you were or you need self consistency. Self consistency even can be a trap. And so day one thinking is kind of we start fresh every day. And we get to make new decisions every day about invention, about customers, about how we're going to operate what are even even as deeply as what our principles are. We can go back to that. It turns out we don't change those very often but we change them occasionally.
从某种意义上说，你并不希望享受一天的舒适。你已经多次谈及这个。我们将谈谈你的写作，我极力推荐人们阅读你在致股东的信中的内容。所以你解释了“第一天思维”的概念。我记得你在1997年的股东信中第一次写到它。之后，你以某种方式写了最后一封给股东和CEO的信，很遗憾地说。你提到了第二天是停滞不前，然后是无关紧要，接着是痛苦的衰落，最后是死亡。所以这就是为什么永远都是第一天。你能解释一下第一天思维吗？这是描述亚马逊的起点和旅程的一种非常有力的方式。它实际上是一种关于更新和重生的简单而古老的观念。就像每一天都是第一天一样。每一天你都在决定你要做什么。你并不受困于过去的自己或身份的束缚。甚至自我一致性都可能成为一种陷阱。第一天思维可以让我们每天都重新开始。我们可以每天做出新的决策，关于创新、关于客户、关于我们如何运营，甚至深入到我们的原则是什么样的。我们可以回过头去看看。事实证明，我们并不经常改变这些原则，但偶尔我们会进行一些改变。
And when we work on programs that Amazon, we often make a list of tenants and the tenants are kind of, they're not principles, they're a little more tactical than principles, but it's kind of the main ideas that we want this program to embody whatever those are. And one of the things that we do is we put, these are the tenants for this program and then when parentheses, we always put unless you know a better way. And that idea unless you know a better way is so important because you never want to get trapped by dogma. You never want to get trapped by history. It doesn't mean you discard history or ignore it. There's so much value in what has worked in the past and but you can't be blindly following what you've done. And that's the heart of day one. You're always starting fresh.
当我们从事亚马逊的项目时，我们经常制定一系列原则，这些原则有点像房客，它们并不是原则，比起原则更具操作性，但它们是我们希望该项目体现的主要理念。我们会把这些原则列出来，并在括号中加上“除非你知道更好的方法”。这个“除非你知道更好的方法”的理念非常重要，因为您绝不希望陷入教条主义的困境。您绝不希望被历史所束缚。这并不意味着您要舍弃历史或忽视它。过去的经验中包含着巨大的价值，但您不能盲目地按照过去所做的事情一味地行动。这就是“第一天”的核心。您始终从零开始。
And to the question of how to fend off day two, you said such a question can't have a simple answer. As you're saying, there will be many elements, multiple paths and many traps. I don't know the whole answer, but I may know bits of it. Here's a starter pack of essentials. Maybe others come to mind for day one defense. Customer obsession, a skeptical view of proxies, the eager adoption of external trends and high velocity decision making.
关于如何抵御第二天的问题，你说这样的问题并没有简单的答案。正如你所说，这其中有许多因素、多条道路和许多陷阱。我不知道整个答案，但我可能知道其中一部分。以下是基本要点的起始包。也许对于第一天的防御还有其他想法。以客户为中心，对替代方案持怀疑态度，积极采纳外部趋势和高速决策。
So we talked about high velocity decision making. That's more difficult than it sounds. So maybe you can pick one that stands out to you as you can comment on. Eager adoption of external trends, high velocity decision making skeptical of your proxies. How do you fight off day two?
所以我们谈论了高速决策。这比听起来要困难得多。所以也许你可以选择其中一个让你印象深刻的，并发表评论。积极采用外部趋势，高速决策对你的替代方案持怀疑态度。你如何抵抗"第二天"？
意思：我们谈论了高速决策的重要性，但实际操作起来比听起来更困难。也许你可以选择其中一个让你印象深刻的方面来发表评论。这些方面包括积极采用外部趋势、高速决策，并对你自己的替代方案持怀疑态度。你如何应对后续的挑战呢？
Well, you know, I'll talk about because I think it's the one that is maybe in some ways, the hardest to understand is the skeptical view of proxies. One of the things that happens in business, probably anything that you're, where you're, you know, you have an ongoing program and something is underway for a number of years. As you develop certain things that you're managing to, like let's say the typical case would be a metric.
嗯，你知道，我想谈谈这个问题，因为我认为在某种程度上，最难理解的可能是对代理人持怀疑态度的观点。在商业上经常会发生的一件事情，无论是什么领域，当你进行一个正在进行多年的项目时，你会发现一些你需要管理的事物，比如典型情况可能是一项指标。
And that metric isn't the real underlying thing. And so, you know, maybe the metric is efficiency metric around customer contacts per unit sold or something like if you sell a million units, how many customer contacts do you get or how many returns do you get and so on and so on. And so what happens is a little bit of a kind of a nurse sets in where somebody a long time ago invented that metric and they invented that metric. They decided we need to watch for, you know, customer returns per unit sold as an important metric, but they had a reason why they chose that metric, the person who invented that metric and decided it was worth watching.
而且，这个指标并非真正的基础。也就是说，也许这个指标是关于每销售单位的客户联系效率指标，或者是如果你卖出一百万个单位，你会有多少客户联系，或者有多少退货等等。所以会有一种人为设定的气氛，很久以前有人发明了这个指标，并且决定这个指标很重要，但他们选择这个指标时有自己的理由，发明这个指标并决定它值得关注的那个人。
And then fast forward five years that metric is the proxy. Proxy for truth, I guess. The proxy for truth. The proxy for customer say in this case, it's a proxy for customer happiness. And, but that metric is not actually customer happiness. It's a proxy for customer happiness. The person who invented the metric understood that connection. Five years later, a kind of inertia can set in and you forget the truth behind why you were watching that metric in the first place and the world shifts a little.
然后快进五年，这个指标成为了代理。代理真相，我猜是代理真相。代理顾客的意见，在这种情况下，它代表了顾客的幸福程度。但实际上，该指标并不是顾客的幸福程度，而是顾客幸福程度的代表。发明这个指标的人明白这种联系。五年后，一种惰性可能会产生，你忘记了最初为什么要关注这个指标的真相，而且世界也发生了一些变化。
And now that proxy isn't as valuable as it used to be or it's missing something and you have to be on alert for that. You have to know, okay, this is, I don't really care about this metric. I care about customer happiness. And this metric is worth putting energy into and following and improving and scrutinizing only in so much as it actually affects customer happiness. And so you got a constantly beyond guard and it's very, very common.
现在，代理不再像以前那样有价值，或者说它缺少了某些东西，你必须警惕这一点。你必须知道，好吧，其实我并不关心这个指标，我关心的是客户的幸福感。只有在这个指标实际上对客户的幸福感产生影响时，才值得我们投入精力去追踪、改进和审查。所以你必须始终保持警惕，这是非常常见的。
This is a nuanced problem. It's very common, especially in large companies, that they are managing to metrics, that they don't really understand. They don't really know why they exist. And the world may have shifted off from under them a little. And the metrics are no longer as relevant as they were when somebody 10 years earlier invented the metric. That is a nuanced, but that's a big problem, right? Something so compelling to have a nice metric to try to optimize.
这是一个复杂的问题。尤其是在大公司中，他们经常在管理指标时存在一种情况，即他们并不真正理解这些指标的存在原因，也不真正知道它们的意义。而且可能随着时间的推移，这些指标已经变得不再像10年前创建它们的人所认为那样相关。这是一个复杂但严重的问题，是不是？拥有一个好的指标来优化工作是非常诱人的事情。
Yes. And by the way, you do need metrics. You do. You know, you can't ignore them. You want them, but you just have to be constantly on guard. This is a way to slip into day two thinking would be to manage your business to metrics that you don't really understand. And you're not really sure why they were invented in the first place. And you're not sure they're still as relevant as they used to be.
是的。顺便说一句，你确实需要指标。你需要它们。你知道，你不能忽视它们。你想要它们，但你必须始终保持警惕。滑入第二天思维的一种方式就是管理你的业务，基于你并不真正理解的指标。而且你并不确定它们最初为什么被发明出来。你也不确定它们是否仍然与过去一样相关。
What does it take to be a guy or gal who brings up the point that this proxy might be outdated? I guess what does it take to have a culture that enables that in the meeting? Because that's a very uncomfortable thing to bring up in a meeting. We all showed up here at the Friday. This is such you have just asked a million dollar question.
成为一个提出这个代理可能过时的人需要什么？我猜在会议中拥有一个能够让这个问题被提出来的文化需要什么？因为在会议中提出这个问题是一件非常不舒服的事情。我们都在星期五来到这里。这就好像你刚刚问了一个价值百万美元的问题。
So this is this is a what if I generalize what you're asking, you're talking in general about truth telling. And we humans are not really truth seeking animals. We are social animals. Yeah, we are. And you know, take you back in time 10,000 years and you're in a small village. If you go along to get along, you can survive. You can procreate. If you're the village truth teller, you might get clubbed to death in the middle of the night.
所以，如果我概括你的问题，你说的是关于说真话的一般情况。而我们人类并不是真正追求真相的动物，我们是社会性的动物。是的，我们是。你知道，回到一万年前的一个小村庄，如果你顺应大家的心意，你就能够生存下来，繁衍后代。但如果你是那个村庄里的真相告知者，你有可能在夜晚被殴打致死。
Truths are often, they don't want to be heard because important truths can be uncomfortable. They can be awkward. They can be exhausting. Impolite. Yes. All that kind of challenging. They can make people defensive even if that's not the intent. But any high performing organization, whether it's a sports team, a business, you know, a political organization, activist group, I don't care what it is. Any high performing organization has to have mechanisms and a culture that supports truth telling.
真理通常不被欢迎，因为重要的真理可能会让人感到不舒服。它们可能会让人感到尴尬、疲惫和无礼。是的，所有这些都是具有挑战性的。即使这并非意图，它们也可能使人们产生防御心理。但是，任何一个高效的组织，无论是体育队、企业、政治组织还是活动团体，我都不在乎是什么类型的组织，都必须具备支持真实说话的机制和文化。
One of the things you have to do is you have to talk about that. You have to talk about the fact that it takes energy to do that. You have to talk to people. You have to remind people it's okay that it's uncomfortable. You have to literally tell people it's not what we're designed to do as humans. It's not really, it's kind of a side effect. You know, we can do that. But it's not how we survive. We mostly survive by being socially animals and being cordial and cooperative and that's really important.
你必须做的一件事就是要谈论这个问题。你需要谈论到这样做需要消耗能量的事实。你需要与人们交谈。你需要提醒人们，这种不舒服是可以接受的。你需要直接告诉人们，这并不是人类的设计初衷。这其实只是一种副作用。你知道，我们可以这样做。但这不是我们生存的方式。我们大部分是通过作为社交动物、友好互助来生存，这一点非常重要。
And so there's a, you know, science is all about truth telling. It's actually a very formal mechanism for trying to tell the truth. And even in science, you find that it's hard to tell the truth.
Right. And even, you know, you're supposed to have a hypothesis and test it and find data and reject the hypothesis and so on. It's not easy. But even in science, there's like the senior scientists and the junior scientists. And then there's a hierarchy of humans where the seniority matters.
所以，科学就是关于告诉真理的。它实际上是一个试图告诉真理的非常正式的机制。但即使在科学中，发现要告诉真实性也很困难。
没错。你知道，你应该有一个假设，然后对其进行测试，找到数据，拒绝假设，等等。这并不容易。但即使在科学中，也有高级科学家和初级科学家的区分。然后，人类之间还存在一种高级别的层级问题。
Yes. The scientific process, which is, and that's true inside companies too. And so you want to set up your culture so that the most junior person can overrule the most senior person if they have data. And that really is about trying to, you know, there are little things you can do.
So for example, in every meeting that I attend, I always speak last. And I know from experience that, you know, if I speak first, even very strong-willed, highly intelligent, high judgment participants in that meeting will wonder, well, if Jeff thinks that, I came in this meeting thinking one thing, but maybe I'm not right. And so you can do little things like if you're the most senior person in the room, go last. But everybody else go first. In fact, ideally, let's try to have the most junior person go first and ask the second, then try to go in order of seniority so that you can hear everyone's opinion in a kind of unfiltered way.
Because we really do, we actually literally change our opinions. If somebody who you really respect says something, makes you change your mind a little.
是的。科学方法，这个在公司内也同样适用。所以你希望建立一种文化，即使是最年轻的人拥有数据，也能覆盖最资深的人。这实际上是在尝试着，你知道，有一些小事情可以做。
例如，在我参加的每次会议上，我总是最后发言。我通过经验知道，如果我第一个发言，即使是有很强意志力、高智商、高判断力的与会者，他们也会想，嗯，如果杰夫这么认为，我来开会的时候是有一个想法的，但也许我不正确。所以你可以做一些小事情，比如如果你是会议中最资深的人，那就最后说话。但其他人都先说。实际上，最理想的是让最年轻的人先说，然后是第二个人，然后按资历顺序来，这样你可以听到每个人的意见，以一种无过滤的方式。
因为我们真的会改变我们的看法。如果有你非常尊重的人说了什么，会让你稍微改变主意。
So you're saying implicitly or explicitly give permission for people to have a strong opinion that as long as it's backed by data.
所以你的意思是无论是暗示还是明示，只要意见有数据支持，就允许他人拥有坚定的观点。
Yes. And sometimes it can even, by the way, a lot of our most powerful truths turn out to be hunches. They turn out to be based on anecdotes. They're intuition-based. And sometimes you don't even have strong data. But you may know, you may know the person well enough to trust their judgment. You may feel yourself leaning in. It may resonate with a set of anecdotes you have. And then you may be able to say, you know, something about that feels right. Let's go collect some data on that. Let's try to see if we can actually know whether it's right. But for now, let's not disregard it because it feels right.
是的，有时候，事实上，我们最有力的真理往往是凭直觉得出来的。它们基于一些个别的例子，是基于直觉的。有时候，甚至没有强有力的数据支持。但你可能对这个人的判断有足够的了解而信任他们的判断。你可以感觉到自己倾向于这个观点。它可能与你拥有的一系列个别例子共鸣。然后你可能会说，某种程度上它感觉对了。让我们收集一些数据来验证它。让我们试试看能否真正知道它是否正确。但就目前而言，让我们不要因为它感觉对了而轻视它。
You can also fight inherent bias. There's an optimism bias. Like if there are two interpretations of a new set of data, and one of them is happy, and one of them is unhappy, it's a little dangerous to jump to the conclusion that the happy interpretation is right. You may want to sort of compensate for that human bias of looking for, you know, trying to find the silver lining. It's to look like this might be good. But I'm going to go with it's bad for now until we're sure.
你也可以对内在偏见进行抗争。存在着一种乐观偏见。比如，当面对一组新数据时，如果有两种解释，一种是积极的，一种是消极的，盲目得出积极解释是正确的结论是有一定危险性的。你可能想要在这种人类寻求阳光面的偏见上进行补偿。即使事情看起来不错，我会选择暂时认为它可能是坏的，直到我们确信为止。
So speaking of happiness, bias, data collection, and anecdotes, you have to have that for a transition. You have to tell me the story of the call you made, the customer service call you made to demonstrate a point about wait times.
所以说到幸福、偏见、数据收集和轶事，你必须有一个过渡。你得告诉我一个电话的故事，你打过的客服电话，用来证明等待时间的观点。
Yeah, this is very early in the history of Amazon. And we were going over a weekly business review and a set of documents. And I have a saying, which is when the data and the anecdotes disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. And it doesn't mean you just slavishly go follow the anecdotes, then it means you go examine the data. Because the data, and it's usually not that the data is being miscollected. It's usually that you're not measuring the right thing.
是的，这是亚马逊历史上的早期阶段。我们正在审查一份周度业务回顾和一系列文件。我有一句话，数据和个人经验如果不一致，通常个人经验是正确的。这并不意味着你要盲目地追随个人经验，而是要去审查数据。因为通常情况下，并不是数据被错误地收集，而是你没有正确地衡量事物。
And so, you know, if you have a bunch of customers complaining about something, and at the same time, you know, your metrics look like why they shouldn't be complaining. You should doubt the metrics. And an early example of this was we had metrics that showed that our customers were waiting, I think, less than, I don't know, 60 seconds when they called the 1-800 number to get phone customer service. The wait time was supposed to be less than 60 seconds. But we had a lot of complaints that it was longer than that. And anecdotally, it seemed longer than that. Like, you know, I would call customer service myself.
所以，你知道，如果有一堆客户抱怨某件事情，同时，你的指标看起来不应该出现这种抱怨的情况。你应该对这些指标产生怀疑。一个早期的例子是，我们有一些指标显示，当客户拨打 1-800 号码寻求电话客服时，他们等待的时间应该少于，我不知道，60 秒。等待时间应该少于 60 秒。但是我们收到了很多超过这个时间的抱怨。而且从个人事例来看，确实超过了这个时间。就像，你知道，我自己也会打电话给客服。
And so one day we're in a meeting or going through the WBR and the weekly business review. We get to this metric in the DAC. And the guy who leads customer service is presenting the metric. And I said, okay, let's call. I picked up the phone. And I dialed the 1-800 number and called customer service. And we just waited in silence.
于是有一天我们在开会或者进行每周业务回顾(WBR)时，我们看到了数据分析中心(DAC)中的一个指标。正在展示这个指标的是那位负责客户服务的人。我说，好吧，让我们来打个电话。我拿起电话，拨通了1-800的号码，致电客户服务部门。然后我们就静静地等待着。
What did it turn out to be?
Oh, it was really long, more than 10 minutes, I think.
Oh, wow. I mean, it was many minutes. And so, you know, it dramatically made the point that something was wrong with the data collection. We weren't measuring the right thing. And that, you know, set off a whole chain of events where we started measuring it right. And that's an example, by the way, of truth-telling is like, that's an uncomfortable thing to do. But it's, but you have to seek truth, even when it's uncomfortable. And you have to get people's attention and they have to buy into it and they have to get energized around really fixing things. So that speaks to the obsession of the customer experience.
它最终是什么结果呢？
哦，真的很长，超过10分钟，我觉得。
哇，是吗。我的意思是，确实持续了好几分钟。这样一来，你知道，它戏剧性地表明数据收集出了问题。我们没有测量到正确的东西。于是，一系列事件发生了，我们开始正确地进行测量。顺便说一下，这是一个诚实的例子，而诚实是一件很不舒服的事情。但你必须追求真理，即使它让人不舒服。你必须引起人们的注意，并让他们接受并积极投身于真正解决问题的工作。这就涉及到对顾客体验的痴迷。
So one of the defining aspects of your approach to Amazon is just being obsessed with making customers happy. I think companies sometimes say that, but Amazon is really obsessed with that. I think there's something really profound to that, which is seeing the world through the eyes of the customer, like the customer experience, like the truth being, that's using the product, that's enjoying the product, like the subtle little things that make up their experience. Like, how do you optimize those?
所以，你对亚马逊的方法之一就是痴迷于让顾客满意。我认为有些公司虽然也说过这样的话，但亚马逊确实对此执着追求。我觉得这其中有着非常深刻的道理，就是通过顾客的视角去看待世界，关注顾客体验，真正的事实是，他们使用产品、享受产品的那种感受，还有那些构成他们体验的微妙小细节。那么，如何优化这些细节呢？
This is another really good and kind of deep question because there are big things that are really important to manage. And then there are small things internally into Amazon, we call them paper cuts. So we're always working on the big things. Like if you ask me, and most of the energy goes into the big things as it should. And you can identify the big things, and I would encourage anybody, if anybody listening to this is an entrepreneur, it's a small business, whatever. Think about the things that are not going to change over 10 years, and those are probably the big things.
这是另一个非常好的而且有点深刻的问题，因为有些重要的大事是需要我们管理的。而在亚马逊内部，我们称之为小问题。所以我们一直在处理那些大事。比如说，如果你问我，大部分精力都放在了那些大事上，这是理所当然的。你可以识别那些大事，我鼓励任何人，无论是创业者还是小企业主，都应该思考那些在未来十年不会改变的事情，这些很可能就是那些大事。
So I know in our retail business at Amazon, 10 years from now customers are still going to want low prices. I know they're still going to want fast delivery, and I just know they're still going to want big selection. So it's impossible to imagine a scenario where 10 years from now, I say, where customers say, I love Amazon, I just wish the prices were a little higher. Or I love Amazon, I just wish you delivered a little more slowly. So when you identify the big things, you can tell they're worth putting energy into because they're stable in time.
我知道在亚马逊的零售业务中，无论十年后，顾客仍然会追求低价格。我知道他们仍然会追求快速配送，而且我也知道他们仍然会追求丰富的选择。因此，很难想象十年后会发生这样的情况，即顾客会说：“我喜欢亚马逊，只是希望价格再高一点。”或者说：“我喜欢亚马逊，只是希望你们配送再慢一点。”所以当你确定了这些重要因素时，你就可以知道它们值得投入精力，因为它们在时间上是稳定的。
Okay, but you're asking about something a little different, which is in every customer experience, there are those big things. And by the way, it's astonishingly hard to focus even on just the big things. So even though they're obvious, they're really hard to focus on. But in addition to that, there are all these little tiny customer experience deficiencies. And we call those paper cuts, and we make long lists of them. And then we have dedicated teams that go fix paper cuts, because the teams working on the big issues never get to the paper cuts. They never work their way down the list to get to they're working on big things, as they should. And as you want them to, and so you need special teams who are charged with fixing paper cuts.
好的，但你所问的是有些不同的事情，那就是在每个客户体验中，都有那些重要的事情。顺便说一下，即使只专注于这些重要的事情，也是非常困难的。所以即使它们是显而易见的，但真的很难集中精力。除此之外，还有许多微小的客户体验缺陷。我们把这些称为“纸上切口”，并且我们会列出很长的列表。然后我们有专门的团队去修复这些纸上切口，因为专注于重大问题的团队永远不会处理这些切口。他们从不按照列表的顺序逐步解决问题，而是一直在处理重大问题，正如你希望的那样。因此，你需要负责修复纸上切口的特殊团队。
Well, where would you put on the on the paper cut spectrum, the Buy Now with One Click button, which is, I think, pretty genius.
嗯，你会将"立即购买"按钮这种非常聪明的创意，放在纸质切割的范围中的哪一部分呢？
So to me, like, okay, my interaction with things I love on the internet, there's things I do a lot. I may be representing regular human. I would love for those things to be frictionless. For example, booking airline tickets, just saying. But it's buying a thing with one click, making that experience frictionless, intuitive, all aspects of that. That just fundamentally makes my life better. Not just in terms of efficiency, in terms of some kind of cognitive load. Yeah, cognitive load and inner peace and happiness.
对我来说，互联网上我喜爱的事物的交互，有些是我经常做的。我可能代表普通人的愿望就是这些事情能够零阻力进行。比如，订购机票，仅仅通过一次点击完成购买，使整个体验变得毫不费力、直观，涵盖各个方面。这基本上能够让我的生活变得更好，不仅仅是因为效率的提升，还有一种认知负荷的减轻、内心的宁静和幸福感。
First of all, buying stuff is a pleasant experience, having enough money to buy a thing and then buying it is a pleasant experience. And like having pain around that is somehow just your ruining a beautiful experience. And I guess all I'm saying as a person who loves good ideas, is that a paper cut, a solution to a paper cut.
首先，购物是一种愉快的体验，有足够的钱买自己想要的东西，然后购买它是一种愉快的体验。而像疼痛之类的不适感只会破坏这美好的体验。作为一个热爱好点子的人，我想说的是，解决纸划伤的问题就像是纸划伤本身的解决方案。
Yes. So it's probably that particular thing is probably a solution to a number of paper cuts. So if you go back and look at our order pipeline and how people shopped on Amazon, before we invented one click shopping, there was more friction. There was a whole series of paper cuts. And that invention eliminated a bunch of paper cuts.
是的。所以很可能这个特定的事情可能是解决了许多麻烦问题的一个解决方案。所以如果你回过头来看我们的订单流程和人们在亚马逊上购物的方式，在我们发明一键购物之前，存在更多的阻力。有一系列的问题。而这个创新消除了很多麻烦问题。
And I think you're absolutely right, by the way, that there when you come up with something like one click shopping, again, this is like so ingrained in people now, I'm impressed that you even noticed it. I mean, most people. Every time I click the button, I just never know. The surge of happiness. There is in the perfect invention for the perfect moment in the perfect context, there is real beauty. It is actual beauty and it feels good. It's emotional. It's emotional for the inventor. It's emotional for the team that builds it. It's emotional for the customer. It's a big deal. And you can feel those things. To keep coming up with that idea with those kinds of ideas, I guess, is the day one thinking effort. Yeah. And you need a big group of people who feel that kind of satisfaction with creating that kind of beauty.
我觉得你说得一点也没错，顺便说一下，当你提出类似“一键购物”的创意时，这已经深入人心了，我很惊讶你能够注意到。我的意思是，多数人每次点击按钮时，都不会知道这触发了一股快乐的涌动。在完美的创新、完美的时机和完美的背景下，真正有美感。它是实实在在的美，感觉很好。这是一种情感的体验。对于发明者而言，对于团队的建设者而言，对于消费者而言，都是一件大事。你能感受到这些东西。要不断提出这样的创意，我想这是一种“从“一号天才创始日”一直持续下去的努力。是的，你需要一大群人，他们能够从创造这种美中得到满足感。
There's a lot of books written about you. There's a book, Invent and Wander, where Walter Isaacson does an intro. It's mostly collective writings of yours. I've read that. I also recommend people check out the Founders podcast that covers you a lot. And it does different analysis of different business advice you've given over the years.
关于你的书籍有很多。其中一本书叫做《创新与流浪》，瓦尔特·艾萨克森在其中作了一篇导言。这本书主要是关于你的集体写作。我已经读过了。我还推荐大家听听《创始人》播客，它对你进行了很多报道。它对你多年来给出的不同商业建议进行了不同的分析。
I bring all that up because I saw that there, a mention that you said that books are an antidote for short attention spans. And I forget how it was phrased, but that when you were thinking about the Kindle, that you're thinking about how technology changes us. We co-evolve with our tools. So we invent new tools and then our tools change us. Which is fascinating to think about. It goes in a circle. And there's some aspect, even just inside business, where you don't just make the customer happy, but you also have to think about where is this going to take humanity if you zoom out a bit. A hundred percent. And you can feel your brain, brains are plastic, and you can feel your brain getting reprogrammed. I remember the first time this happened to me was when Tetris, which first came on the scene, I'm sure you've had anybody who's been a game player has this experience where you close your eyes to lay down to go to sleep and you see all the little blocks moving and you're kind of rotating them in your mind. And you can just tell as you walk around the world that you have rewired your brain to play Tetris. But that happens with everything. And so, one of the, I think, we still have yet to see the full repercussions of this, I fear. I think one of the things that we've done online, largely because of social media, is we have trained our brains to be really good at processing super short form content. And your podcast flies in the face of this. You do these long format things. And reading books is a long format thing. And we all do more of, if something is convenient, we do more of it.
我提到这一切是因为我看到你提到过书籍是短期注意力不集中的解药。虽然我忘记了是怎么说的，但当你考虑到Kindle时，你在思考技术如何改变我们。我们与工具共同进化。所以我们发明新的工具，然后工具改变我们。这个循环非常有趣。而且，即使只是在商业领域，你不仅要让客户满意，还要考虑这会对人类产生怎样的影响，如果你稍微扩大一下视野。百分之百。你可以感觉到你的大脑，大脑是可塑的，你可以感觉到你的大脑被重新编程了。我记得第一次有这种经历是在俄罗斯方块出现时，我相信玩过游戏的任何人都有这种经验，你闭上眼睛躺下去睡觉，你能看到所有的小方块在移动，你在脑海中旋转它们。当你在世界中走动时，你可以明显感觉到你已经重塑了玩俄罗斯方块的思维方式。但这种情况发生在一切事物上。所以，我认为，我们在网上做的事情，很大程度上是因为社交媒体，我们训练我们的大脑擅长处理超短篇内容。而你的播客完全违背了这一点。你做这些长篇的节目。而阅读书籍是一件长篇的事情。如果一件事情很方便，我们会做更多。
And so, when you make tools, we carry around in our pocket a phone. And one of the things that phone does, for the most part, is it is an attention shortening device. Because most of the things we do on our phone shorten our attention spans. And I'm not even going to say we know for sure that that's bad. But I do think it's happening. That's one of the ways we're co-evolving with that tool. But I think it's important to spend some of your time and some of your life doing long attention span things.
所以，当你制作工具时，我们将一个手机放在口袋里。手机的其中一个功能，大多数情况下，就是缩短我们的注意力。因为我们在手机上做的事情大多都会缩短我们的注意力。我甚至不敢说我们知道这对我们来说肯定是不好的。但我确实认为这是正在发生的事情。这是我们与这个工具共同进化的一种方式之一。但我认为花一些时间和生活去做一些需要长时间专注的事情也是很重要的。
Yeah, I think you've spoken about the value in your own life of focus. Of singular focus on the thing for prolonged periods of time. And that's certainly what books do. And that's certainly what that piece of technology does. But I bring all that up to ask you about another piece of technology, AI, that has the potential to have various trajectories to have an impact on human civilization. How do you think AI will change us?
是的，我认为你谈到了专注在你自己生活中的价值。长时间专注于某件事情。这正是书籍所做的。这也是那些科技产品所做的。但我提到这一切是想问你关于另一种科技产品-人工智能，它有潜力在人类文明上产生不同的影响方向。你认为人工智能会如何改变我们？
If you're talking about generative AI, large language models, things like Chad GPT and its soon successors. These are incredibly powerful technologies to believe otherwise is to bury your head in the sand, soon to be even more powerful. It's interesting to me that large language models in their current form are not inventions, they're discoveries. The telescope was an invention. But looking through it at Jupiter, knowing that it had moons was a discovery. Like, my god, it has moons. And that's what Galileo did. And so this is closer on that spectrum of invention. We know exactly what happens with a 787. It's an engineered object. We designed it. We know how it behaves. We don't want any surprises. Large language models are much more like discoveries. We're constantly getting surprised by their capabilities. They're not really engineered objects.
如果你在谈论生成AI、大型语言模型，比如Chad GPT及其即将推出的后继产品，那么这些技术无疑是非常强大的。不相信这一点就是把头埋在沙子里，它们甚至将变得更加强大。对我来说，有趣的是，大型语言模型在其当前形式下并非是发明，而是发现。望远镜是一种发明。但是当通过望远镜看到木星，并知道它有卫星时，则是一种发现。就像，天呐，它有卫星！这就是伽利略所做的。所以，从发明角度来看，这更接近于发现。我们对787的行为了如指掌。它是一个经过设计的物体，我们知道它的工作原理，我们不希望有任何意外。而大型语言模型更像是一种发现。它们的能力不断给我们带来惊喜。它们并不是真正的工程化对象。
Then you have this debate about whether they're going to be good for humanity or bad for humanity. Even specialized AI can be very bad for humanity. Just regular machine learning models can make certain weapons of war that could be incredibly destructive and very powerful. They're not general AI's. They could just be very smart weapons. We have to think about all of those things. I'm very optimistic about this. Even in the face of all this uncertainty, my own view is that these powerful tools are much more likely to help us and save us even. Then they are to unbalance, hurt us, and destroy us. I think we humans have a lot of ways of we can make ourselves go extinct. These things may help us not do that. So they may actually save us. So the people who are overly concerned, I mean, in my view, overly clear, it's a valid debate. I think that they may be missing part of the equation, which is how helpful they could be in making sure we don't destroy ourselves.
然后就出现了关于人工智能对人类是有利还是有害的争论。即使是专门的人工智能也可能对人类造成很大的危害。即使是普通的机器学习模型也可以制造出一些能够带来巨大破坏和强大威力的战争武器。它们并不是通用人工智能，只是非常聪明的武器而已。我们必须考虑所有这些因素。我对此非常乐观。即使面临所有这些不确定性，我的观点是，这些强大的工具更有可能帮助我们并拯救我们。而不是失衡、伤害我们或摧毁我们。我认为我们人类有很多方式可以让自己灭绝。而这些技术可能会帮助我们避免这种情况。因此，它们实际上可能会拯救我们。所以对于那些过分担忧的人们，我认为他们可能忽略了其中的一部分，即这些技术可以在防止我们自我毁灭方面起到多么有益的作用。
If you saw the movie Oppenheimer, but to me, first of all, I loved the movie and I thought the best part of the movie is this bureaucrat played by Robert Downey Jr., who some of the people who have talked to think that's the most boring part of the movie, I thought it was the most fascinating because what's going on here is you realize we have invented these awesome destructive, powerful technologies called nuclear weapons. And they are managed and we humans were not really capable of wielding those weapons. That's what he represented in that movie is, here's this guy who is just, he wrongly thinks he's like being so petty. He thinks that he said something that Oppenheimer said something bad to Einstein about him. They didn't talk about him at all as you find out in the final scene of the movie. And yet he spent his career trying to be vengeful and petty. And that's the problem. We as a species are not really sophisticated enough and mature enough to handle these technologies.
如果你看过电影《奥本海默》，但对我来说，首先，我喜欢这部电影，而我觉得电影中最好的部分是由小罗伯特·唐尼饰演的这个官僚角色。一些人认为他是整部电影最无聊的部分，但我觉得这是最迷人的，因为你会意识到我们发明了这些强大的毁灭性技术，核武器。而我们人类并没有真正能胜任掌握这些武器的能力。电影中他所代表的就是，这个人错误地认为自己很琐碎，他认为奥本海默对爱因斯坦说了些坏话，但在电影的最后一幕里你会发现，他们根本没有谈论他。然而他一生都在试图报复和计较。这就是问题所在。我们作为一个物种，对于处理这些技术来说还不够成熟和先进。
And so, and by the way, before you get to general AI and the possibility of AI having agency, and there's a lot of things that would have to happen, but there's so much benefit that's going to come from these technologies in the meantime, even before their general AI in terms of better medicines and better tools to develop more technologies and so on. So, I think it's an incredible moment to be alive and to witness the transformations that are going to happen, how quickly what happened no one knows. But over the next 10 years and 20 years, I think we're going to see really remarkable advances. And I personally am very excited about it.
所以，顺便一提，在讨论通用人工智能以及人工智能拥有代理能力之前，还有很多事情需要发生。但在此期间，这些技术将带来很多好处，例如更好的医学和更好的工具用于开发更多技术等等。所以，我认为这是一个令人难以置信的时刻，我们有幸见证即将发生的变革，而这种变革会发生得很快，没人知道。但在未来的 10 年和 20 年里，我认为我们将会见证非常显著的进步。而我个人对此非常兴奋。
First of all, really interesting to say that it's discoveries that it's true that we don't know the limits of what's possible with the current language models. We don't. And like it could be a few tricks and hacks here and there that that open doors to hold entire new possibilities. We do know that humans are doing something different from these models, in part because we're so power efficient. The human brain does remarkable things and it does it on about 20 watts of power. And the AI techniques we use today use many kilowatts of power to do equivalent tasks. So, there's something interesting about the way the human brain does this. And also, we don't need as much data.
首先，非常有趣的是，这些发现表明我们对于目前的语言模型的可能性限制还不清楚。我们并不知道。可能有一些窍门和技巧可以打开全新的可能性之门。我们知道，人类与这些模型在某种程度上在做不同的事情，部分原因是我们的能源使用效率非常高。人脑可以做出令人惊叹的事情，并且只需大约20瓦特的电力。而今天我们所使用的人工智能技术需要使用许多千瓦特的电力来完成相似的任务。因此，人脑的工作方式非常有趣。此外，我们也不需要那么多的数据。
So, you know, like self-driving cars or they have to drive billions and billions of miles to try and to learn how to drive. And you know, your average 16 year old figures it out with many fewer miles. So, there are still some tricks I think that we have yet to learn. I don't think we've learned the last trick. I don't think it's just a question of scaling things up. But what's interesting is that just scaling things up and I put just in quotes because it's actually hard to scale things up, but just scaling things up also appears to pay huge dividends.
所以，你知道，像自动驾驶汽车那样，它们必须行驶数十亿英里以尝试和学习如何驾驶。而你知道，一个普通的16岁的人就能通过更少的里程弄明白这个问题。所以，我认为我们仍然有一些技巧需要学习。我不认为我们已经学到了最后一招。我不认为这只是一个扩大规模的问题。但有趣的是，仅仅扩大规模（我在双引号中加上“仅仅”因为实际上扩大规模是很困难的）似乎也能带来巨大的回报。
Yeah. And there's some more nuanced aspect about human beings that's interesting if it's able to accomplish like being truly original and novel to, you know, large language models being able to come up with some truly new ideas. That's one and the other one is truth. It seems that large language models are very good at sounding like they're saying a true thing, but they don't require or often have a grounding in sort of a mathematical truth. It basically is a very good bullshitter. So, if there's not enough data in the training data about a particular topic is just going to concoct accurate sounding narratives, which is a very fascinating problem to try to solve. How do you get language models to infer what is true or not to sort of introspect? Yeah, they need to be taught to say, I don't know more often. And I know of several humans who could be taught that as well.
是的。人类还有一些更微妙的方面很有趣，如果能够实现的话，比如真正原创和新颖，对于大型语言模型来说能够提出一些真正新颖的想法。这是一个方面，另一个方面是真理。大型语言模型似乎非常擅长听起来像在说一些真实的东西，但它们不需要或经常没有一个基于数学真理的基础。它基本上是一个很好的胡扯者。因此，如果在训练数据中没有关于特定主题的足够数据，它只会虚构听起来准确的叙述，这是一个非常有趣的问题，需要去解决。如何让语言模型能够推断出什么是真实的，什么不是，进行内省？是的，它们需要被教会更频繁地说“我不知道”。我知道有几个人类也可以被教会这一点。
Sure. And then the other stuff, because you're still a bit involved in the Amazon side with the AI things, the other open question is what kind of products are created from this? Oh, so many. Yeah. I mean, you know, just to, you know, we have Alexa and Echo and Alexa has hundreds of millions of installed base, you know, inputs. And so there's this, there's Alexa everywhere. And guess what? Alexa is about to get a lot smarter. Yeah. And so, that's really, you know, from a product point of view, that's super exciting. There's so many opportunities there. So many opportunities shopping assistant. Yeah. You know, all that stuff is amazing.
当然。然后还有其他的东西，因为您仍然与亚马逊的AI事务有一些牵扯，另一个未解决的问题是从中创造出哪些产品？哦，太多了。是的。我的意思是，您知道，我们有Alexa和Echo，而Alexa在数亿用户中有着庞大的安装量。所以，Alexa无处不在。你猜怎么着？Alexa即将变得更加智能。是的。所以，从产品角度来看，这真的非常令人激动。有很多机会。有很多机会，比如购物助手。对，所有这些东西都很了不起。
In AWS, you know, we're building Titan, which is our foundational model. We're also building Bedrock, which are corporate clients at AWS, or enterprise clients. They want to be able to use these powerful models with their own corporate data. Yes. Without accidentally contributing their corporate data to that model. Yes. So those are the tools we're building for them with Bedrock. So there's tremendous opportunity here. Yeah. The security, the privacy, all those things are fascinating of how to, because so much value can be gained by training on private data. But you want to keep the secure. That's a, it's a fast technical problem. Yeah. This is a very challenging technical problem. And it's one that we're, you know, making progress on and dedicated to solving for our customers.
在AWS中，你知道，我们正在构建Titan，这是我们的基础模型。我们还在构建Bedrock，这是AWS的企业客户或企业客户。他们希望能够使用自己公司的数据与这些强大的模型。是的。不要意外地将他们的公司数据贡献给该模型。是的。因此，我们正在为他们使用Bedrock构建这些工具。所以这里有巨大的机会。是的。安全性，隐私等所有这些都很有趣，因为通过对私人数据进行训练可以获得很多价值。但是你想要保持安全。这是一个非常技术上的问题。是的。这是一个非常具有挑战性的技术问题。并且这是一个我们正在取得进展并致力于为我们的客户解决的问题。
Do you think there will be a day when humans and robots, maybe Alexa have a romantic relationship? Like a new vehicle. Well, I mean, I think if you look at the story products here, if you look at the spectrum of human variety and what people like, you know, sexual variety, yes, you know, there are people who like everything. So the answer to your question has to be yes. I guess I'm asking why it's spread out. All right. But it will happen. I was just asking one for a friend, but sorry. All right. I'm just moving on. Next question.
你觉得会有一天人类和机器人，比如Alexa之间会有感情关系吗？就像一种新形式的交往。嗯，我的意思是，如果你看看这里的产品故事，如果你看看人类的多样性和人们的喜好，你知道，性别多样性，是的，有人喜欢各种各样的东西。所以对你的问题，答案必须是肯定的。我想我在问为什么它分布得如此广泛。好吧，但这个将会发生。我只是替朋友问的，但很抱歉。好吧，我继续下一个问题了。
What's a perfectly productive day in the life of Jeff Bezos? You're one of the most productive humans in the world? Well, I first of all, I get up in the morning and I putter. I like, I like have a coffee. Can you define putter? Just like, I slowly move around. I'm not as productive as you might think I am. I mean, because I do believe in wandering and I sort of, you know, I read my phone for a while. I read newspapers for a while. I chat with Laura and I drink my first coffee. So I kind of, I moved pretty slowly in the first cup of our, I get up early, just naturally. And then, you know, I exercise most days and most days it's not the hard for me. Sometimes it's really hard and I do it anyway. I don't want to, you know, and it's painful. And I'm like, why am I here? And I don't want to do me. Why am I here at the gym? Why am I here at the gym? Why don't I do something else? You know, this, it's not always easy.
在杰夫·贝佐斯的生活中，什么是一个完美高效的一天？你是世界上最高效的人之一？嗯，首先，我早上起床后会闲逛一下。我会喝杯咖啡。putter是什么意思？就是我会慢慢移动。我并不像人们认为的那样高效。我的意思是，我相信四处走走，我会读一会手机，读一会报纸。我会和劳拉聊天，喝第一杯咖啡。所以在喝完第一杯咖啡之前，我行动相当缓慢。我早上很早就起床了，天性使然。然后，你知道的，我大多数天都会锻炼身体，对我来说并不困难。有时候确实很难，但我还是会去做。我不想去，而且也很辛苦。我会想，我为什么要来这里？为什么要来健身房？为什么我不做其他事情呢？你知道的，这并不总是容易的。
What's the source of motivation in those moments? I know that I'll feel better later if I do it. And so like, the real source of motivation, I can tell the days when I skip it. I'm not quite as alert. I don't feel as good. And then there's harder motivation. It's longer term. You want to be healthy as you age. You know, you want health span. You want, ideally, you know, you want to be healthy and moving around when you're 80 years old, you know, and so there's a lot of, but that kind of motivation is so far in the future. It can be very hard to work in the second.
在那些时刻，动力的来源是什么？我知道如果我去做这件事，以后会感觉更好。所以，真正的动力源，我可以感觉到忽略的那几天。我不太警觉，感觉也不太好。然后还有更长远的动力。你希望随着年龄增长保持健康。你知道，健康的时间要长一点。理想情况下，你希望在80岁时仍然健康并活动灵活。所以有很多……但那种动力对于现在来说太遥远了。很难在当下产生作用。
So thinking about the fact, I'll feel better in about four hours if I do it now, I'll have more energy for the rest of my day and so on and so on.
所以考虑到这个事实，如果我现在做的话，大约四个小时后我会感觉更好，而且我会在接下来的一天里有更多的精力等等。
What's your exercise routine just to linger on that? What do you, how much you curl? I mean, what are we talking about here?
你的锻炼计划是怎样的？只是想了解一下。你能做多少个弯举？我的意思是，我们在谈论什么？
That's all I do at the gym. So I just, I, I, my routine, you know, on a good day, I do about half an hour of cardio and I do about 45 minutes of weightlifting, resistance training of some kind, mostly weights. I have a trainer who, you know, I love who pushes me, which is really helpful. You know, I'll be like, he'll say, Jeff, do you see, you could, can we go up on that way a little bit and I'll think about it and I'll be like, no, I don't think so. And he'll be, he'll look at me and say, yeah, I think you can. And of course he's right. Yeah, it's, it's all to have somebody push you a little bit. But almost every day you do that.
这就是我在健身房里做的全部。所以，我只是，我，我有一个日常锻炼计划，你知道的，一个好的日子里，我会做大约半小时的有氧运动和大约45分钟的举重和阻力训练，主要是举重。我有一个教练，你知道的，我很喜欢他推动我，这真的很有帮助。你知道的，我会说，杰夫，你看，我们能不能稍微提高一下重量，我会想一下，然后说，不，我觉得不行。他会看着我说，是的，我觉得你可以。当然他是对的。是的，有人推着你一点很有帮助。但几乎每天你都这样做。
I do almost every day. I do a little bit of cardio and a little bit of weightlifting and I'd rotate. I do a pulling day and a pushing day and a leg day. It's all pretty standard stuff. So puttering coffee, jim, and then work. What's work look like? What, what are the productive hours look like for you?
我几乎每天都这样做。我会进行一些有氧运动和一些举重，然后轮换着进行。有拉伸的一天，有推动的一天，还有腿部锻炼的一天。这些都是很普通的训练项目。然后我会喝杯咖啡，进行一些Jim（可能指健身房活动），然后开始工作。你在工作上是怎样的呢？你的高效工作时间是怎么样的呢？
I, you know, so I, a couple of years ago, I left as the CEO of Amazon and I have never worked harder in my life. I am working so hard and I'm mostly enjoying it, but there are also some very painful days. Most of my time is spent on, um, Blue Origin and I've been, I'm so deeply involved here now for the last couple of years. And in the big, I love it. And the small, there's all the frustrations that come along with everything, you know, we're trying to get to rate manufacturing as we talked about. That's super important. We'll get there. We just hired a new CEO guy. I've known for close to 15 years now, a guy named Dave Limp, who I love. He's amazing. You know, um, so we're super lucky to have Dave and you know, we're going to, you're going to see us move faster there.
我，你知道的，几年前我离开了亚马逊的首席执行官职位，此后我从未如此努力工作过。我工作非常努力，大部分时间都花在了蓝色起源这个项目上，过去几年我一直深度参与其中。总的来说，我非常喜欢这个项目，但也有一些非常痛苦的日子。在这个大项目中，我非常热爱它。在小细节上，也有一些与之相伴而来的挫折和困扰，比如我们试图实现快速制造。这一点非常重要，我们会做到的。我们刚刚聘请了一位新的首席执行官，他是我认识了近15年的人，名叫戴夫·林普，我非常喜欢他，他真是太棒了。所以我们非常幸运能够有戴夫，相信你会看到我们在这方面会更加迅速。
But so, by day of work, you know, reading documents, having meetings, sometimes in person, sometimes over zoom depends on where I am. It's all about, you know, the technology. It's about the organization. It's about, you know, I'm very, um, I have architecture and technology meetings almost every day on various subsystems inside the vehicle, inside the engines. It's super fun for me. My favorite part of it is the technology. Um, my least favorite part of it is, you know, building organizations and so on. That's important, but it's also my least favorite part. So, you know, that's why they call it work. You don't always get to do what you want to do.
因此，工作日里，你知道的，读文件、开会，有时是面对面的，有时是通过Zoom，这取决于我身处的地方。这一切都与技术有关，与组织有关，你懂的。我几乎每天都会参加关于车辆内部各个子系统、引擎内部的架构和技术会议。对我来说，这非常有趣，我最喜欢其中的技术部分。而我最不喜欢的部分是建设组织等工作，这也很重要，但同时也是我最不喜欢的部分。所以，你知道，所以才叫做工作。并不总是能做自己想做的事情。
How do you achieve time where you can focus and truly think through problems? I do little thinking retreats. So for this is not the only, I can do that all day long. I'm very good at focusing. I'm very good at, um, you know, I'm, I don't keep to a strict schedule. Like my meetings often go longer than I plan for them to because I believe in wandering. My perfect meeting starts with a crisp document. So the document should be written with such clarity that it's like angels singing from on high. I like a crisp document and a messy meeting. And so the meeting is about like asking questions that nobody knows the answer to and, and, and, and trying to like wander your way to a solution. And, um, uh, because like, and that is, when that happens just right, it makes all the other meetings worthwhile. It feels like it has a, it has a kind of beauty to it. It has an aesthetic beauty to it. And, and you get real breakthroughs and meetings like that.
你如何获得一段可以专注并认真思考问题的时间呢？我会经常进行一些思考撤退。对我来说，这不是唯一的办法，我可以整天都这样做。我很擅长专注。我很擅长，嗯，你知道的，我不会遵循严格的时间安排。我的会议经常超过我计划的时间，因为我相信漫游。我理想的会议从一个清晰的文件开始。文件应该被写得清晰明了，就像天使在高处歌唱一样。我喜欢有条理的文件和混乱的会议。所以会议的目的就是提出没有人知道答案的问题，试图通过漫游的方式找到解决方案。当这样的情况恰到好处时，它将让所有其他的会议都变得有价值。它有一种美的感觉，有一种美学上的美感。在这样的会议中，你可以真正实现突破。
Can you actually describe the, the crisp document? Like, this is one of the legendary aspects of Amazon of the way you approach meetings. This is the six-page memo. Maybe first describe the process of, of reading a meeting with memos and meetings.
你能描述一下清晰的文件吗？就像这是亚马逊在开会方式上的传奇之一。这是一份六页的备忘录。也许首先描述一下阅读备忘录和开会的过程。
At Amazon and Blue Origin are unusual when we, when we get new, when new people come in, like a new executive joins, they're a little taken aback sometimes because the typical meeting will start with the six-page narratively structured memo. And we do study hall. For 30 minutes, we sit there silently together in the meeting and read. Take notes in the margins. And then we, then we discuss.
在亚马逊和蓝色起源，当我们有新人加入时，比如一位新的高管，他们有时会感到有些吃惊，因为典型的会议通常会以六页长的叙事结构备忘录开始。我们进行研讨会。半小时内，我们静默地坐在一起读。在边缘做笔记。然后我们开始讨论。
And the reason, by the way, we do study, you could say, I would like everybody to read these memos in advance. But the problem is people don't have time to do that. And they end up coming to the meeting, having only scared the memo or maybe not read it at all. And they're trying to catch up. And they're also bluffing like they were in college, having pretended to do the reading. Yeah. Exactly. It's better just to carve out the time for people. So now we've all the same page. We've all read the memo. And now we can have a really elevated discussion.
顺便说一下，我们之所以要进行学习，可以说是因为我希望每个人都提前阅读这些备忘录。但问题在于，人们没有时间去做这件事。结果他们来到会议上，只是匆匆瞥过备忘录，或者干脆没有读过。他们试图赶上进度，并且像大学时代一样故作镇定，假装已经阅读了备忘录。是的，确实。更好的做法是为人们腾出时间，这样我们就能保持统一的理解。我们都读过备忘录，因此我们可以进行一场真正深入的讨论。
And this is so much better from having a slideshow presentation, you know, a PowerPoint presentation of some kind where that has so many difficulties. But one of the problems is PowerPoint is really designed to persuade. It's kind of a sales tool. And internally, the last thing you want to do is sell. You want to, again, you're truth-seeking. You're trying to find truth. And the other problem with PowerPoint is it's easy for the author and hard for the audience. And a memo is the opposite. It's hard to write a six page memo. A good six page memo might take two weeks to write. You have to write it, you have to rewrite it, you have to edit it, you have to talk to people about it, they have to poke holes in it for you, you write it again. It might take two weeks. So the author, it's a really very difficult job. But for the audience, it's much better. So you can read a half hour and, you know, there are little problems with PowerPoint presentations too. You know, senior executives interrupt with questions halfway through the presentation. That question is going to be answered on the next slide, but you never got there. If you read the whole memo in advance, you know, I often write lots of questions that I have in the margins of these memos. And then I go cross them all out because by the time I get to the end of the memo, they've been answered. That's why I save all that time.
这肯定比幻灯片演示好多了，你知道的，就是一种PowerPoint演示，但是它有很多问题。其中一个问题是PowerPoint真正是为了销售而设计的。它是一种销售工具。但是在企业内部，你最不想做的事情就是销售。你想要的是——寻找真实。而PowerPoint的另一个问题是它对于作者来说很容易，但对于观众来说却很困难。而备忘录则相反。写一份六页的备忘录很难。写好一份六页备忘录可能需要两周的时间。你得先写，然后重写，然后编辑，还得与人讨论，供他们针对你的想法提出问题，然后重新写。可能要花两周时间。所以对于作者来说，这是一项非常困难的工作。但对于观众来说，这要好得多。因此，你可以阅读半个小时，而且，PowerPoint演示也有一些小问题。你知道的，高管们在演示还没讲完之前就插入问题。而那个问题其实会在下一页回答，但你却没讲到那一页。如果你提前全文阅读备忘录，我经常会在备忘录的边缘写下我有的许多问题。然后我再一个个划掉，因为到了备忘录结尾时，它们已经得到了回答。这就是我节省的时间所在。
You also get, you know, if the person is preparing the memo, we talked earlier about, you know, groupthink and, you know, the fact that I go last in meetings and that you don't want, you know, to your ideas to kind of pollute the meeting prematurely. You know, the author of the memo is, is kind of got to be very vulnerable. They got to put all their thoughts out there. And they've got to go first. But that's great because it makes them really good. And so, and you get to see their real ideas. And you're not trompling on them accidentally in a big, you know, PowerPoint presentation. What's that feel like when you've authored a thing and then you're sitting there and everybody's reading your thing, you're like, I think it's mostly terrifying. Yeah. Like maybe in a good way. I think it's purifying in a productive way. But I think it's emotionally a very nerve-wracking experience.
在准备备忘录的人之中，你也会有这种感觉，你知道的，我们之前谈过团队思维和在会议中我作为最后一个发言人，并且你不希望你的想法在会议过早地受到干扰。你知道的，备忘录的作者必须非常脆弱，他们必须将所有的想法都写出来，并且必须首先发言。但这很棒，因为这样使得他们变得很出色。因此，你可以看到他们真实的想法。而不是在一个庞大的PPT演示中无意中压制住他们。当你成为一件事的作者，然后坐在那里每个人都在读你的东西时，你会有什么感觉呢？我觉得这大部分是令人害怕的。是的，也许是一种好的方式。我认为这是一种有益的洗礼。但我觉得这是一种情感上非常紧张的经历。
Is there art science to the writing of the six-page memo or just writing in general to you? I mean, it's really got to be a real memo. So it means, you know, paragraphs have topic sentences, verbs and nouns. That's the other problem with PowerPoint for us. They're often just bullet points. And you can hide a lot of sloppy thinking behind bullet points. When you have to write in complete sentences with narrative structure, it's really hard to hide sloppy thinking. So it does, it forces the author to be at their best. And so you're getting somebody's, they're getting some is really their best thinking. And then you don't have to spend a lot of time trying to tease that thinking out of the person. You've got it from the very beginning. So it really saves you time in the long run. So that part is crisp and then the rest is messy. Chris documents. Yes. And you don't want to pretend that the discussion should be crisp.
对你来说，写六页备忘录还是一般的写作是否包含一种艺术科学？我的意思是，这得是一份真正的备忘录。所以，也就是说，段落必须有主题句、动词和名词。这也是我们对幻灯片持有意见的另一个问题。它们通常只是简单的要点。而在要用完整句子和故事结构进行写作时，就很难隐藏粗糙的思维了。这迫使作者发挥最佳水平。因此，你得到的是某人真正最好的思考。这样你就不必花费很多时间去引导他们思考。从一开始你就已经得到了。所以从长远来看，这样真的会节省你的时间。所以这一部分是明确的，其他部分就会有些凌乱。明确的文件。是的。而且你不想假装思考应该是明确的。
Most meetings you're trying to solve a really hard problem. There's a different kind of meeting, which we call weekly business reviews or business reviews. They may be weekly or monthly or daily, whatever they are. But these business review meetings, that's usually for incremental improvement and you're looking at a series of metrics every time it's the same metrics. Those meetings can be very efficient. They can start on time and end on time.
大多数会议都是为了解决一个非常困难的问题。而还有一种不同类型的会议，我们称之为每周业务评审或业务评审会。它们可能是每周、每月或每日举行，不管是哪种频率，这些业务评审会通常是为了渐进式改进，每次都会查看一系列的指标，这些指标都是相同的。这些会议可以非常高效，准时开始和准时结束。
So we're about to run out of time, which is a good time to ask about the 10,000 year clock. That's what I'm known for is the humor. Okay. Can you explain what the 10,000 year clock is?
所以，我们的时间快用完了，现在正是问一下关于万年钟的好时机。我以幽默为人所知。好的。你能解释一下什么是万年钟吗？
10,000 year clock is a physical clock of monumental scale. It's about 500 feet tall. It's inside a mountain in West Texas in a chamber that's about 12 feet in diameter and 500 feet tall.
万年钟是一种规模巨大的实体钟表。它高约500英尺，位于西德克萨斯州的一座山内，置于一个直径约12英尺、高约500英尺的密室之中。
10,000 year clock is an idea conceived by a brilliant guy named Danny Hillis way back in the 80s. The idea is to build a clock as a symbol for long term thinking. And you can kind of just very conceptually think of the 10,000 year clock as it ticks once a year. It chimes once every hundred years and the kookoo comes out once every thousand years. So it just sort of slows everything down. And it's a completely mechanical clock. It is designed to last 10,000 years with no human intervention. So the material choices and everything else. It's in a remote location both to protect it, but also so that visitors have to kind of make a pilgrimage.
一万年时钟是一个在80年代由一个名叫丹尼·希利斯的聪明人构想出来的想法。这个想法是建造一座钟，作为长远思考的象征。你可以将这个一万年时钟的概念想象为每年走一次的滴答声。它每百年敲响一次，而每一千年，疯子也出现一次。所以它可以将一切都减慢下来。这是一个完全机械化的时钟，设计寿命为一万年，不需要人为干预。材料选择和其他方面都考虑到了这一点。它位于偏远地区，既是为了保护它，也是为了让参观者必须进行一次朝圣之旅。
The idea is that over time, this will take hundreds of years, but over time it will take on the patina of age. And then it will become a symbol for long term thinking that will actually hopefully get humans to extend their thinking horizons. And my view, that's really important as we have become as a species, as a civilization, more powerful. We're really affecting the planet now. We're really affecting each other. We have weapons of mass destruction. We have all kinds of things where we can really hurt ourselves. And the problems we create can be so large, the unintended consequences of some of our actions. Climate change, putting carbon in the atmosphere is a perfect example. That's an unintended consequence of the industrial revolution that a lot of benefits from it. But we've also got this side effect that is very detrimental. We need to be, we need to start chaining ourselves to think longer term.
这个想法就是随着时间的推移，可能需要数百年，但随着时间的推移，它会逐渐显现岁月的风采。然后，它将成为长期思考的象征，希望能够让人类延伸他们的思考视野。而在我看来，这对于我们作为一种物种、一种文明，变得更加强大非常重要。我们现在对地球的影响相当大。我们实际上正在互相影响。我们拥有大规模杀伤性武器。我们拥有各种各样的可以真正伤害自己的东西。我们所造成的问题非常巨大，有些行动的意外后果。气候变化，将碳排放到大气中就是一个完美的例子。这是工业革命的副作用之一，我们从中获得了很多好处。但我们也得到了一个非常有害的副作用。我们需要开始锁定自己，进行长期思考。
Long term thinking is a giant lever. You can literally solve problems if you think long term that are impossible to solve if you think short term. And we aren't really good at thinking long term. It's not really, we're kind of, five years is a tough timeframe for most institutions to think past. And we probably need to stretch that to 10 years and 15 years and 20 years and 25 years. And we do a better job for our children or our grandchildren if we could stretch those thinking horizons. And so the clock is in a way, it's an art project. It's a symbol. And if it ever has any power to influence people to think longer term, that won't happen for hundreds of years. But we have to, we're going to build it now and let it accrue the patina of age.
长期思维是一个巨大的杠杆。如果你以长期的思维方式来思考问题，那么你可以解决那些短期思维下不可能解决的问题。而我们在思考长远问题上并不擅长。对于大多数机构来说，想超越五年的时间框架非常困难。我们可能需要延长到10年、15年、20年甚至25年。如果我们能够拓宽这些思维的时间范围，那么我们对我们的子孙后代会更好。所以这个时钟从某种程度上说是一个艺术项目，是一个象征。如果它能够在几百年后有力地影响人们去思考更长远的问题，那将是非常有意义的。但现在我们必须建造它，并让它逐渐积累岁月的沉淀。
Do you think humans will be here when the clock runs out here on earth? I think so. But you know, the United States won't exist. Like whole civilizations rise and fall 10,000 years is so long. Like no nation's data has ever survived for anywhere close to 10,000 years. And the increasing rate of progress makes that even less likely. So do I think humans will be here? Yes. What, you know, how will we have changed ourselves and what will we be and so on and I don't know. But I think we'll be here.
你认为当地球时间走到尽头时，人类还会在这里吗？我觉得会。但你知道，美国将不复存在。就像整个文明的兴衰一样，1万年太长了。就连任何一个国家的数据都没有幸存超过1万年的记录。而且进步的速度越来越快，这变得更不可能了。所以我认为人类还会在这里存在。不过，我们会怎样改变自己，将来会变成什么样，我不知道。但我相信我们还会在这里。
On that grand scale, a human life feels tiny. Do you ponder your own mortality? Are you afraid of death? No, I'm, you know, I used to be afraid of death. I did. Like my, like, I remember as a young person being kind of like very scared of mortality, like, you didn't want to think about it and so on. And always had a big, and as I've gotten older, I'm 59 now, as I've gotten older, somehow that fear has sort of gone away. I don't, you know, I would like to stay alive for as long as possible. But I'd like to be it's I'm really more focused on health span. I want to be healthy. I want that square wave. I want to, you know, this is healthy, healthy, healthy, and then gone. I don't want the long decay. But and I'm curious. I want to see how things turn out. You know, I'd like to be here. I love my, my family and my close friends and I want to, I'm curious about them and I want to see so I have a lot of reasons to stay around. But it's, mortality doesn't, doesn't have that effect on me that it did, you know, maybe when I was in my 20s.
在那个宏大的尺度上，一个人的生命感觉微不足道。你有没有思考过自己的有限生命？你害怕死亡吗？不，我是，你知道，我曾经害怕死亡。我是的。就像我，就像，我记得年轻时对死亡有一种非常害怕的感觉，不想去想它等等。而且随着年龄的增长，我现在59岁了，一些恐惧感似乎渐渐消失了。你知道，我想尽可能地活得长久。但我更注重健康寿命。我想保持健康。我希望健康在一个方形波形下持续存在，然后消失。我不想经历长期的衰败。而且我很好奇。我想看看事情的发展。你知道，我想在这里。我爱我的家人和亲密的朋友，我想知道他们的近况，我想看到他们，所以我有很多留下来的理由。但是，对我来说，死亡的影响没有像我20多岁时那样了。
Well, Jeff, thank you for creating Amazon, one of the most incredible companies in history. And thank you for trying your best to make humans a multi planetary species, expanding out into our solar system, maybe beyond to meet the aliens out there. And thank you for talking today.
嗯，杰夫，感谢你创造了亚马逊，这是历史上最不可思议的公司之一。还要感谢你尽力让人类成为一个在太阳系内拓展、甚至可能在更远的地方与外星人相遇的多星球物种。还要感谢你今天能与我们交流。
Well, Lex, thank you for doing your part to lengthen our attention space. Appreciate that very much. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Jeff Bezos. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Jeff Bezos himself. Be stubborn on vision, but flexible on the details. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
嗯，Lex，感谢你为我们延长注意力提供了支持。非常感激。感谢你聆听与杰夫·贝索斯的对话。如果您想支持这个播客，请查看描述中的赞助商。现在让我用贝索斯先生的话结束这个对话：“在愿景上坚持，但在细节上保持灵活。”感谢您的聆听，希望下次再见。