Charles Payne Show December 12, 2023

Next week's F-o'am said that's I'm sorry this week's f-o'am's meeting it's going to be viewed as double show bring in a monetary macro company cio joseph weighing kennifer can affect though you know if it's double let's say it's double for whatever reason can they really afford to give up job oning it feels like that's the most effective arrow in the quiver uh. you know because markets investors they take off pretty quickly when j-pow gives them the not and j-pow seems that he doesn't want to look foolish right inflation rebound so they're between a rock and a heart place trying to trying to articulate this does this issue talking about well absolutely child so what I've noticed in the past two years is that when the fed says I'm gonna hike higher for longer the market here's always going to cut rates really soon now tomorrow though when the fed probably is going to signal some type of pivot as it in the sense that we might be cutting a little bit next year just because inflation has come down I think the market is going to take that and just run with it and they already have right there pricing in almost five interest rate cuts next week and it's going to make a defense job harder because that's a little bit too much loosening in financial conditions what do you know but all in all though I'm sorry for them to adjust I'm sorry how many how many rates do you think at this particular moment would be reasonable for next year how many rate cuts I think three would be reasonable we have made serious progress on inflation so and the economy is slowing so I think having three show up in the dot plot tomorrow makes sense it'd be one more than I was in the September dot plot so I think it would be interpreted uh. as dovish compared to the last meeting but the market of course prices that in and a lot more already yeah uh.

下周的F-o'am表示，对不起这周的F-o'am会议将被视为双倍节目，引进一个货币宏观公司的首席信息官Joseph Weighing Kennifer可能会影响到您知道的，如果是双倍的话，无论出于什么原因，他们真的能承担得起放弃“化解就业下滑”这一策略吗？感觉这是最有效的方法。因为市场投资者们一旦获得了J-POW的信号，很快就会出逃，而J-POW似乎不想看起来愚蠢，对吧，通胀反弹，所以他们陷入了一个进退两难的境地，试图表达这个问题。绝对没有错，所以我过去两年观察到的是，当美联储表示我会更长时间地加息时，市场总会认为他们马上要降息了，而在明天，当美联储可能会发出一些信号，表明明年可能会降息一点，只是因为通胀已经下降了，我认为市场会接受这一点，并迅速行动起来，他们已经对下周几乎进行了五次利率削减的定价，这将使美联储的工作更加困难，因为这对金融条件的宽松程度已经有些过多。不过总的来说，对于他们来说进行调整是很抱歉的，非常抱歉能否请教你在这时候认为明年有多少次降息才算合理呢？我认为三次是合理的，我们在通胀方面已经取得了重大进展，而经济却在放缓，所以我认为明天在点阵图上显示三次是有道理的，比九月份的点阵图多一次，所以我认为它会被解读为相对上次会议来说比较鸽派，但市场当然早就对此进行了定价，而且已经定价了更多的降息。

the I get asked you about something that I'm trying to understand uh. you know this whole reverse repo market has been on fire but all of a sudden it's coming down hard we've got to chart up there just uh. it's it's been rapidly declining what message should we take from that yeah I used to run the reverse refill facility so what the reverse repo facility is it's like a giant checking account at the federal reserve and so a lot of investors have been putting money in that because they get high returns that the the offering rate there's close to the federal funds rate but now that interest rates are higher because of tremendous amounts of bill issuance money is coming out of the reverse repo facility and going into the baking sector so you've heard a lot over the past few months that m two has been declining money supplies been declining a lot of it is because it's been in the reverse repo facility now that's going to reverse so we can have a lot more money going to the banking sector liquidity will increase and to increase and I think a lot of people view that as risk positive maybe marginally so but I i i I i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i I i I i i i I i I i I I I i i i i I i i surprisingly amount of investors on trade off of that

我问你一个我试图理解的问题。你知道整个逆回购市场一直火热，但突然之间急速下跌，我们有一张图在那里。它一直在迅速下降，我们应该从中得出什么信息呢？是的，我过去运营过逆回购设施，因此逆回购设施就像是联邦储备系统中的一个巨大支票账户。因此，许多投资者将资金放入其中，因为他们可以获得高收益，即申报利率接近联邦基金利率。但现在由于票据发行的大量资金，利率升高，资金正在流出逆回购设施，并流入银行业。你在过去几个月里听到很多关于M2下降和货币供应量大幅下降的消息，其中有很多是因为资金一直在逆回购设施中。现在这个趋势将会逆转，资金将大量流向银行业，流动性和M2会增加。我认为很多人认为这对风险是积极的，或许在某种程度上是，但令人惊讶的是，有很多投资者会因此进行交易。

Paragraph 1: "What about the banks themselves and their exposure to the so-called belly of the curve, uh? You know, this sort of sweet spot with these T-bills, uh? It feels like they're still somewhat between a rock and a hard place. As the Fed acknowledged, in some kind of way, well they're expected to cut rates next year, right?"

第一段: "那么银行们和它们对所谓的曲线腹部的接触呢？你知道的，这种与国债部分有关的甜蜜点，对吧？感觉他们仍然有点左右为难。正如美联储承认的那样，它们有望在明年降息，对吗？"

Paragraph 2: "So, I think as the cut next year, as rates decline, that's going to give banks a lot of them uh. Some room to breathe, right? Because they're going to be paying less on their deposit rates, and that's going to improve their interest rate margins. And as money comes out of the various repo facility, you can expect banks to have more liquidity. So, that's going to make them feel more secure."

所以，我认为明年的降息将给银行提供很多❮余地来喘息，对吧？因为他们将支付更少的存款利率，这将提高他们的利差。而且，随着各种回购机构的资金退出，你可以预计银行将拥有更多的流动性。所以，这将使他们感到更加安全。

Paragraph 3: "Job-wise, I think it's just a squeeze. Is that because it seems like, uh, you've got to get the blueprint in mind, what's going to happen? But it seems like you're a little uneasy with the market becoming too excited about all this. Are you concerned that the stock market, even maybe the bond market, is getting ahead of itself?"

就工作而言，我认为这只是一种压力。这是因为看起来你得在脑海中构思出发展蓝图和将要发生的事情。但是似乎你对市场对所有这些过于兴奋有些不安。你担心股市甚至可能是债市是否过早地超前发展了吗？

Paragraph 4: "So, the bond market, definitely. But when I take a step back, I'm looking at tremendous amounts of deficit spending, seven percent this year, forecasted to increase without balance going forward. That's spending or buying goods and services by printing treasury securities. That is functioning money printing, and that's really bullish for the stock market from my perspective. Now, as long as the bond market stays under control, I would expect the stock market to continue to do well."

所以，肯定是债券市场。但是当我退一步看，我看到巨大的赤字支出，今年达到7%，预计在未来将继续增加且不平衡。这意味着通过印刷国债来购买商品和服务，也就是实质上的货币印制。从我的角度来看，这对股市是非常利好的。只要债券市场保持控制，我预计股市将继续走好。

Paragraph 1: "Now, eventually, though, I think the bond market's going to wake up and realize that this issuance just won't stop. And I think then, then we might have some more volatility. Yet, at the moment, it's not there yet.

"然而，我认为债券市场最终会觉醒，并意识到这种发行不会停止。而且我认为在那之后，市场可能会出现更多的波动。但是，目前还没有出现这种情况。"

Paragraph 2: I think you're right, though. We'll see, Joe. Appreciate your expertise, particularly on a day like today. Thanks a lot, my man.

我觉得你说得对，Joe。我们等着瞧吧。非常感谢你的专业知识，尤其在像今天这样的日子里。非常感谢你，我的朋友。

Paragraph 3: Thanks, Joe. Our first, uh.". coming up my take away.

谢谢，乔。我们的第一个，嗯......接下来是我的观点。