Musk Comments on Next Gen Tesla, Cybertruck + China Sales Spring Ahead

Hey everybody Rob Merr here and today we are going to be talking about a new interview from Elon Musk in which he shares some comments on Tesla's next generation vehicle plans, also some comments on the Cybertruck, we've got a bit of news on the Cybertruck battery, Model 3, and China sales. Quick look at the stock, a little bit of volatility today but Tesla still ending up in a nice spot up 1.3% on the day to $238.72, with Nasdaq up about 3.10% of a percent.

大家好，我是罗布·默尔，今天我们要谈谈埃隆·马斯克的新一次采访。在这次采访中，他分享了一些关于特斯拉下一代车型计划的评论，还提到了Cybertruck，我们还有一些关于Cybertruck电池、Model 3以及中国销售的新闻。我们先来快速看一下股票情况，今天有些波动，但特斯拉最终以1.3%的涨幅收盘，报238.72美元，而纳斯达克指数上涨了约3.10%。

Alright so first up today we've got a new Elon Musk interview to discuss this was from St. Cenem and Rome and RealLive, I'll link to this down in the description, but I think this happened the day after the Cybertruck event so of course some discussion on the Cybertruck we'll talk a little bit about that.

好的，今天首先我们要讨论的是一次新的埃隆·马斯克采访。这次采访来自St. Cenem and Rome和RealLive，我会在描述中放上链接。我想这是在Cybertruck事件的第二天进行的，所以当然会讨论一下Cybertruck。我们会稍微谈谈这个。

But perhaps most interestingly Elon did share some comments on Tesla's next generation vehicle. He noted that he couldn't say a whole lot about it with Tesla being a public company, forward looking statements and all of those sort of good disclaimers, but he did share a little bit, said quote, we are working on a low cost electric vehicle that will be made in very high volume, we're quite far advanced in that work.

但也许最有趣的是，埃隆分享了一些关于特斯拉下一代车辆的评论。他指出，由于特斯拉是一家上市公司，需要注意前瞻性声明和其他有效的免责声明，所以他不能说得太多，但他还是透露了一点消息，他说：“我们正在开发一款低成本、大规模生产的电动车，我们在这方面的工作进展非常顺利。”

I review the production line plans for that every week and I think the revolution in manufacturing that will be represented by that car will blow people's minds. It is not like any car production line that anyone has ever seen. So this backs up comments we had previously heard from Walter Isaacson relating to the Elon Musk biography in terms of reviewing production planning each week and to hear Elon describe it as quite far advanced is both exciting and encouraging.

我每周都会审核生产线计划，我认为这辆车所代表的制造业革命将会让人们惊叹不已。它不像任何人们以往见过的汽车生产线。因此，这与我们之前听到的沃尔特·艾萨克森在评估生产计划时所说的吻合，以及听到埃隆形容这种进展已经相当先进，让人兴奋而鼓舞。

He did also confirm something that we had previously heard also from the biography that the first production line for the next generation vehicle is going to be at Gigatexus, said Gigamexico would be the second place and that quote, it would take too long to complete the factory in Mexico and quote, referencing the possibility of having the first line there instead.

他还证实了我们之前在传记中听说的一些事情，即未来一代车辆的第一个生产线将建在Gigatexus，Gigamexico将是第二个地点，并表示“在墨西哥建厂需要太长时间”，提及了有可能优先在那里建设第一条生产线的可能性。

Now you could interpret that and some people are interpreting that to mean that the next generation vehicle so far along that they just had to pull it into Gigatexus because it was happening so quickly. And I suppose that's possible but I think it was more so pulled into Gigatexus so that it can happen as quickly as possible rather than that being an indication of being ahead of any particular schedule.

现在，你可以解释这个，并且一些人解释它意味着下一代车辆已经进展到快速推入Gigatexus的程度。我觉得这是可能的，但我认为更多是为了尽快推动它进入Gigatexus，而不是表明它超前于任何特定计划的迹象。

Also watching the full interaction to me it kind of seemed like the Mexico comment from Elon was kind of thrown in there to address a comment that Sandia had made about Mexico and although Elon didn't explicitly say Mexico would take too long at this point that was more so my interpretation of what he was trying to say.

在我的理解中，观看完他们的全部互动后，我觉得埃隆关于墨西哥的评论似乎是为了回应桑迪亚对墨西哥的评论而提出的。虽然埃隆并没有明确表示在目前阶段墨西哥需要花费太长时间，但这更多是我对他的意思的解读。

Regardless Gigatexus confirmed Walter Isaacson had previously said that one of the main drivers of that decision was just co-locating with Tesla's engineering team which of course makes a lot of sense.

根据Gigatexus的确认，沃尔特·艾萨克森先前表示，这个决定的主要原因之一就是与特斯拉的工程团队合作在同一地点，这当然是非常合理的。

The other comment Elon had on the next generation vehicle was quote, the thing that's most interesting about this is its production system. It's a level of production technology that is far in advance of any automotive plant on Earth. This is also very exciting but we do have to remember that with revolutionary new technology sometimes comes challenges.

埃隆在接下来一代汽车的评论中提到，"最有趣的地方是生产系统。这是一种生产技术，远远超过地球上任何汽车工厂。这也很令人兴奋，但我们必须记住，革命性的新技术有时会带来挑战。"

We've seen that consistently in Tesla's history from the Model 3 and the over automation of the production line during that phase. Elon's of course talked about it a lot recently with the Cybertruck, the Model X ramp for those that remember that. All challenges that Tesla overcomes and leave Tesla in a great spot but just worth keeping in mind relative to expectations particularly around timing.

我们从特斯拉的历史中一直看到这一点，从Model 3以及该阶段生产线的过度自动化。埃隆最近当然也经常谈论这个问题，包括Cybertruck和Model X的上市。这些都是特斯拉克服的挑战，让特斯拉处于一个很好的位置，但在预期方面特别是时间方面值得我们注意。

Speaking of timing one of the things that Monroe asked Elon about was what are the biggest challenges in actually getting this vehicle now to market and I think reference the amount of time that it's been which kind of led Elon down that direction and he said really during that period it was a relevant for Tesla to bring another car to market because they didn't have enough parts to build.

说到时间安排，蒙罗向埃隆问起了推动这一车辆进入市场的最大挑战是什么，我想这与现在已过去的时间有关，这也引导了埃隆朝这个方向进行回答。他说，在那段时间，特斯拉推出另一款车辆并不相关，因为他们没有足够的零部件来生产。

The other cars that they were already producing at that time, the Model 3, the Model Y. The unveiling event was late 2019. The earliest ever target for deliveries was late 2021 and of course right between there you had COVID and then you had huge supply chain disruptions and Tesla managed through all of that incredibly well I think but they were obviously constrained and that was reflected in the margins that we were seeing at the time and I think that's really clear in hindsight now so given those constraints and Elon was saying this throughout that period why shift resources away from that production for a new vehicle that doesn't even grow the total amount of vehicles you can sell and actually probably reduces it due to the increased complexity.

当时他们已经生产的其他车型有Model 3和Model Y。揭幕活动是在2019年末。最早的交付目标是在2021年末，当然在这期间还遇到了COVID和庞大供应链中断的问题，我认为特斯拉在所有这些问题中表现得非常出色，但显然他们受到了限制，这在当时的利润率中也得到了体现，我现在觉得这一点很清楚。鉴于这些限制，埃隆当时一直在说这句话，为什么要将资源从本已有的生产转移到一款新车上，这款新车甚至不会增加你可以销售的总汽车数量，实际上由于复杂性的增加，很可能会减少销售数量。

So yeah that can sound like a bit of an excuse but I think now that we're finally at Cybertruck deliveries it's important to look back and reflect on those things and I think it does make a lot of sense. It doesn't mean that they could have just done the Cybertruck earlier if they wanted to but if those constraints are at all accurate then I think Tesla very much made the right call during that period.

所以，这听起来可能有点像借口，但我认为现在我们终于可以交付Cybertruck了，回顾和反思这些事情是很重要的，我认为这确实很有道理。这并不意味着他们可以早些推出Cybertruck，但如果那些限制条件准确的话，我认为在那段时间里特斯拉非常正确地作出了决策。

As for timing going forward in terms of how things ramp up from here, Monroe asked Elon has said what he said before it's you know difficult to forecast how things hit on an S curve during the ramp. It hinges on the least lucky part of over 10,000 parts and processes that go into building a vehicle so nothing too new there he said it's probably not going to be material to the financials in 2024 but that it will probably be material in 2025. I don't take too much from that that doesn't mean it's going to be completely irrelevant or insignificant in 2024 but relative to the scale of Model 3 and Model Y even at full production capacity for the Cybertruck its impact on the financials are generally going to be a little bit limited especially during a ramping period.

关于从现在开始逐渐提升的时间安排，Monroe问Elon是否和以前所说的一样，很难预测在提升期间，事物如何遵循S型曲线。这取决于构建一辆车所需的10000多个零部件和工艺中最不幸运的部分，因此对于2024年的财务状况来说，可能不会有太大影响，但很可能在2025年会有显著的影响。我从中不会得出太多结论，这并不意味着2024年完全无关紧要或不重要，但相对于Model 3和Model Y的规模，即使在Cybertruck实现全产能时，其对财务状况的影响也会在提升期间相对有限。

Beyond that on the Cybertruck they talked about some of the technical details that we've already covered like the 48 volt architecture and the big step forward that that represents. Elon said a lot of these things are just pretty obvious things higher voltage, higher data rate system in the vehicle really just trying to bring car electronics into 2023. It's reminiscent of what they tried to do with the Model S in you know 2012-2013 catching automotive technology up to other consumer products at that time. Cybertruck definitely represents another big step in that regard. They also touched on steer by wire Elon said that he didn't spend much time on it in the presentation because it's difficult to really understand the value of it from someone telling you but once you drive it it's something that you immediately understand and that's something that we heard about from their reviewers as well. I wish they would have talked a little bit more about the production implications for that system but I don't think we got any new details there. Those were kind of the big notes for me.

此外，在Cybertruck上，他们谈到了一些我们已经讨论过的技术细节，例如48伏特的架构以及它所代表的重大进步。埃隆说，很多这些东西都是很明显的事情，如更高的电压、更高的数据传输速率系统，就是试图将汽车电子技术带入到2023年。这让人想起他们在2012-2013年试图通过Model S来赶上当时其他消费品的汽车技术。从这个角度来看，Cybertruck无疑代表了另一次重大的进步。他们还谈到了电子驱动转向系统，埃隆说他在演示中没有花太多时间讲这个，因为从别人的口头介绍很难理解它的价值，但一旦你亲自驾驶，你就会立刻明白它的价值，这也是我们从他们的评论者那里听到的。我希望他们能多谈谈这个系统对生产的影响，但我想我们没有得到任何新的细节。这对我来说是最重要的要点。

Sandy also mentioned that he was really really delighted with the back seat and the amount of space that was back there so I know a lot of people still curious about that. Good to hear that from Sandy as well.

Sandy还提到他非常非常满意后座和后座空间的大小，所以我知道很多人仍然对此很感兴趣。很高兴也听到Sandy的这种评价。

Also on the Cybertruck the EPA has published their certification report for the vehicle and as a part of this we get some details on the battery. I think Troy tracked this down first and I always like to do anything battery related get Jordan's take from the limiting factor. He shared his thoughts on X so in general we're looking at a battery pack size 122.4 kilowatt hours roughly 170 watt hours per kilogram in terms of energy density. A few things make that a little bit difficult to compare 100% apples to apples but as Jordan says here it's maybe a little bit shy of being on par with the best 2170s or 18650s in terms of pack level energy density but getting closer and certainly an improvement over the first 4680 model Y packs that we saw out of Giga Texas. So this is the version 2 quote unquote cyber cell that Drew has talked about on the last couple of conference calls. Hopefully on the earnings call in January we'll continue to hear a little bit more about the progress there.

关于Cybertruck，EPA已经发布了他们对该车辆的认证报告，其中也包括有关电池的一些细节。我认为特洛伊最先追踪到了这一信息，我总是喜欢了解与电池有关的任何事情，并从Jordan（限制因素方面）那里听取他的意见。他之前分享过他对X的看法，从整体上来说，我们看到的是一个电池组大小为122.4千瓦时，大约每公斤170瓦时的能量密度。有几个因素使得这个比较有点困难，不完全可与最好的2170或18650的电池组能量密度相媲美，但已经接近，并且肯定比我们在德克萨斯超级工厂看到的第一个4680模型Y电池组有所改进。所以这是Drew在最近几次电话会议上谈到的第二版所谓的“cyber电池”。希望在一月份的财报电话会议上我们能继续听到更多进展。

Alright next we've got updated China insured vehicle numbers for the week of November 27th through December 3rd and we're seeing another really strong week another sequential increase in these numbers with 17,400 vehicles being insured during the week up from 16.7,000 the week before. This is the best individual week since March and the second best week so far this year. Quarter to date through the first 9 weeks of the quarter Tesla for Q4 is now sitting just over 104,000 insured vehicles and that pushes it ahead of Q3 for the quarter to date number which it had been trailing behind previously now up about 3.5% over that quarter to date period and up 10% over Q2 and 47% over Q1 for those same periods. This was done with again a pretty small number of model 3s only 3300 in this number so depending on what Tesla does with allocation and all that sort of stuff there would be room for this to increase. It'll take about 160,000 for the quarter to beat Q2's record we've got 4 weeks left so about 14,000 a week would do it.

好的，接下来我们将介绍11月27日至12月3日的中国车辆保险更新数量。我们看到另一个非常强劲的一周，这些数字继续增长，上周投保的车辆数量为17,400辆，而上周为16,700辆。这是自3月以来最好的一周，也是今年迄今为止第二好的一周。截至本季度的前9周，特斯拉第四季度已经投保了超过104,000辆车，这使得它在本季度累计数量上超过了之前落后的第三季度，增幅约为3.5%，而相较于第二季度增长了10%，相较于第一季度增长了47%。这些数据中，Model 3的数量仅为3300辆，因此根据特斯拉在分配等方面的决策，这个数字还有增长的余地。要打破第二季度的记录，本季度需要大约160,000辆车，我们还有4周的时间，每周约需14,000辆即可实现。

Alright last item for today quick update on the EV tax credit relating to the model 3 Tesla a few days ago changed the description explaining the tax credit on the model 3 order page it now says that the $7,500 tax credit will reduce to $37.50 for model 3 real wheel drive and model 3 long range on January 1st 2024.

今天最后一个事项，关于特斯拉 Model 3 的电动汽车税收抵免的一个快速更新。几天前，特斯拉在 Model 3 的订购页面上更改了关于税收抵免的说明，现在说明中说，对于 2024 年1月1日之后购买的 Model 3 后驱和长续航版车型，7500美元的税收抵免将减少到37.50美元。

Previously the language here was a little bit less specific I think it said that credit may be reduced and I don't know if it specified exactly for which trims so it seems like Tesla has gotten more guidance or clarification on how exactly requirements will apply beginning in the new year.

之前这里的语言可能不太具体，我记得它说过信用可能会减少，但我不确定它是否具体指明用于哪个型号，所以看起来特斯拉在新年开始时得到了更多关于要求如何应用的指导或澄清。

As we have seen those things could still change but that seems to be the case for now.

正如我们所看到的，虽然这些事情还可能发生变化，但目前情况似乎是如此。

This will likely be mitigated to an extent by the transition over to the Highland model 3 in the US at some point but still worth noting.

在某个时候，这可能会在一定程度上通过美国转向Highland模型3来减轻，但仍值得注意。

Alright that'll wrap it up for today then as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications and also find me on the X at Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Wednesday December 6th episode of Tesla daily.

好了，今天就到这里吧，感谢一如既往地收听，确保您已订阅和接收通知，并在X上找到我在特斯拉播客上，我们明天见，12月6日星期三的特斯拉日报节目。

Thank you.

谢谢您。