Clear Thinking w/ Shane Parrish (TIP580)

发布时间 2023-10-05 23:45:02 来源

摘要

💰Click here to download your FREE guide to Stop Worrying About Your Finances In 4 Simple Steps: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/subscribe-youtube/ 🪙 Make investing in precious metals easy with Noble Gold Investments. Receive a FREE 5-ounce solid silver America The Beautiful bullion coin with any qualifying precious metals IRA. https://billionairesgold.com Clay is joined by Shane Parrish to discuss his new book, Clear Thinking – Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results. Many people fall prey to making decisions based on our instincts and our gut feelings. Shane’s book gives you the tools to recognize those moments that reshape how you navigate the critical space between stimulus and response. Shane Parrish is the founder of the highly-esteemed blog Farnam Street and also the host of The Knowledge Project Podcast, where he focuses on mastering the best of what other people have already figured out. His work has been featured in nearly every major publication, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Forbes. ▶️ RELATED EPISODES: - An Investor's Guide to Clear Thinking w/ Chris Mayer: https://youtu.be/4tBSuif3x2M IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN: - How Shane differentiates between high-quality and low-quality information. - What the enemies of clear thinking are. - Why we should prioritize the outcome over our ego. - Preventative measures we can use to combat the enemies of clear thinking. - Why we can’t rely on willpower to achieve the outcomes we desire. - How successful people outposition others in order to outperform others. - How we can optimize our environment to achieve better outcomes. - Frameworks related to differentiating our outcomes from our underlying decision-making processes. - How Shane thinks about determining what really matters in life. - Why happiness needs to be thought of as derived internally rather than derived from something external. - What the important things in life are to Shane. - How Shane remains grounded in what’s most important. - Why Shane started a holding company that buys wonderful businesses. - What led Shane to invest alongside Howard Marks and Bill Ackman when joining Tiny’s board. 🎧 Listen to our episodes here: https://link.chtbl.com/TIP-WSB 🖊️ Access the transcript and learn more about the guest here: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/clear-thinking-w-shane-parrish/ 📖 BOOK MENTIONED: - Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish: https://amzn.to/3ZDqlHv Disclosure: Some of the links above are affiliate links that we may earn commission from. This helps keep our show going! 😀 💡 OTHER RESOURCES - Seeking Alpha is a crowd-sourced content service for financial markets. Take control of your financial future — Use our link here for a 14-day free trial: https://www.sahg6dtr.com/59QC8Z/R74QP/ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ABOUT OUR SHOW 🎙 On We Study Billionaires, we interview and study famous financial billionaires including Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, and Ray Dalio. We teach you what we learn and how you can apply their investment strategies in the stock market. 🌍 Website: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/we-study-billionaires/ 📝 Help us understand our audience better so we can create a more intentional user experience by answering this survey! https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/survey2023-youtube ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ 📚OUR FREE INVESTING COURSES/RESOURCES https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/tip-academy/ 📊TRY OUR STOCK INVESTING TOOL: TIP FINANCE https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/tip-finance/ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ❗ DISCLAIMER: This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decisions consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by The Investor’s Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.

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If I pick the right career for me, and I don't show up Monday morning, every Monday, and work my butt off, it doesn't really matter that I picked the right career. It just multiplies by zero. If I pick the right partner, but I don't invest in that relationship and I take it for granted, and I'm not there when they need me and I'm not a good partner, it just goes to zero. But all of those things I just mentioned are the everyday ordinary moments that we don't think about. And what tends to happen in those ordinary moments is we don't realize we're making a decision.

如果我选择适合我的职业，却每个星期一早上都不出现并努力工作，那么选择正确的职业也没有意义，因为结果就是乘以零。如果我选择了合适的伴侣，但不为这段关系投入时间，把它视为理所当然，并且在他们需要我的时候不在身边，成为了一个不够好的伴侣，那么这段关系也会变成零。但所有这些我提到的都是我们平凡日常的时刻，我们往往没有意识到我们正在做出决定。

Well, I just read your new book titled Clear Thinking. And as I was preparing for this interview, funny enough, you were on the show with Preston and Stig back in early 2018, so over five years ago. And also we studied billionaires. It was one of the earlier podcasts in the space that started in 2014. And as I was researching, I noticed that your podcast is also very early on in the space. You released an interview with Michael Mobison back in episode one in 2015. Yeah, we're part of the OG podcasting crew here.

嗯，我刚刚读了你的新书《清晰思维》。准备这次采访的时候，有趣的是，你在2018年初就和Preston和Stig一起出现在那个节目中，那已经是五年多前的事情了。而且，我们也研究过亿万富翁。这是在2014年刚开始的时候，是这个领域中最早的一些播客之一。在我进行研究的时候，我注意到你的播客也是非常早期的。2015年的第一集就发布了与Michael Mobison的采访。是的，我们是最早期的播客组合之一。

Well, let's dive right into the ideas in this book here. When I look at you, Shane, and I look at the work that you do. I think that you're very much in the pursuit of wisdom and you're reading all these books, studying all these great people and having all these experiences and then bringing in that wisdom and then sharing that wisdom with the world.

好的，让我们直接深入探讨一下这本书中的思想。当我看着你，Shane，看着你所做的工作，我觉得你非常追求智慧，阅读了这么多的书籍，研究了这么多伟大的人物，经历了这么多的经历，然后把所得的智慧带进来，与世界分享。

I'm curious how you differentiate information that's low quality and maybe not as helpful from that information that you believe is true wisdom that will stand the test of time.

我很好奇你是如何区分低质量、可能不那么有用的信息与那些你认为是真正经得起时间考验的、智慧的信息的。

Yeah, so there's a couple of ways to do this. And one of the ways that I sort of differentiate between high-quality and low-quality information is sort of from the source, right? So if I'm reading something in a newspaper, for example, and a journalist is writing about it and that journalist writes about 52 articles a year and there are 52 different topics. I know it's probably not the highest-quality information of inputs that I can get. And that doesn't mean anything to the journalist. It just means that they're not an expert in that particular subject.

是的，有几种方法可以做到这一点。而我在高质量和低质量信息之间的区别之一就是从信息来源入手。比如，如果我在报纸上读到一篇文章，上面写的是一位记者的观点，该记者每年写52篇文章，并且这52篇文章涵盖了52个不同的主题。那么我会知道这可能不是我可以获取到的最高质量的信息。这并不意味着记者有什么问题，只是说明他们对这个特定主题不是专家。

So you want to go to people with direct expertise and you want all the nuances and details. And I think this is where people get mistaken when they search out information. They're looking for the answer. And if we let's just back up for one second and think about how we learn. I have a concept called the learning loop, which is how we actually learn something. And so you start with an experience, imagine a clock at the 12 hand, you have an experience at the three hand. You have a compret, like a reflection. So you have a reflection, you reflect on that experience and you create a compression or abstraction, which is the six hand based on that compression or abstraction. You go to the nine hand, which is an action. So you can just imagine this in your head, right? You go from experience, reflection, compression, action, which leads to an experience.

所以你想向具有直接专业知识的人寻求帮助，并且希望了解所有细微差别和细节。我认为当人们寻求信息时，这就是他们犯错的地方。他们在寻找答案。让我们退后一步，思考一下我们是如何学习的。我有一个概念叫做学习循环，这是我们学习东西的方式。你从经验开始，想象一个钟表，12点位置是经验，3点位置是反思，你反思这个经验并创造出一个压缩或抽象的六点位置，根据这个压缩或抽象，你采取行动（9点位置）。你可以在脑海中想象这个过程，对吗？你从经验开始，经过反思、压缩和行动，最终形成新的经验。

And so often the information that we can assume is we're actually consuming other people's abstractions or compressions. And that works for the person who creates it. But for the person who doesn't create it, it's the illusion of knowledge. It's like me when I'm at home making a recipe. I can make that recipe for all the instructions, but, you know, maybe I miss a step or I forget something. And it doesn't turn out quite the way I want it to. But the person who created the recipe, the chef who created it, they would instantly taste it, know exactly what happened. That's the difference between sort of the illusion of knowledge and actual knowledge. If things go right, it tastes the same. If things go wrong, the person who actually earned the knowledge knows exactly what to do, what went wrong, why it went wrong.

很多时候，我们所接收到的信息实际上是他人的简化或概括版本，这让我们产生了对知识的错觉。就像我在家里烹饪食谱，我可能按照指示做，但可能漏掉一步或者忘记添加某些东西，结果不尽如人意。而创建食谱的厨师，会立刻品尝出问题所在，知道发生了什么。这就是所谓知识错觉和实际知识的区别。如果一切顺利，味道会一样；但如果出了问题，真正拥有相关知识的人会准确知道该怎么办，出了什么问题，为什么出了问题。

And so when we're looking for high-quality sources of information for something that we want to be an expert in, we're looking for detail and we're looking for nuance, which is the opposite of sort of the world, the information world that we live in, which is sort of full of soundbites and full of these, you know, one sentence, wisdom quotes and all of that. So you want to look for somebody really close to the problem and you want to look for a lot of detailed information about it and you want to vacuum that information up yourself. You don't want to have a filter in between you and that source of information.

因此，当我们在寻找我们想要成为专家的领域的高质量信息源时，我们会寻找详细和细微的信息，而这正是我们所生活的信息世界的反面，后者充斥着简短的信息片段和那种一句话的智慧名言。因此，你想要寻找与问题非常接近的人，并且你想要获取关于该问题的大量详细信息，你想要自己吸收这些信息。你不想在你和信息源之间设置过滤器。

And you want to, if you're talking to somebody, because if you think of experience, it's not just direct experience, you're experiencing something when you read a book, when we're having this conversation, it's an experience. And so you want to, you want, when you're having that experience, you want to see how somebody reflects on the information, because that's going to help you distill with a lot more context in your head about what happened, why it happened, what's likely to happen in the future. But it also changes the questions you can ask people. So when it comes to asking people for input or advice or anything like that, what you're really trying to do, if you think about learning this way, is I want to know how you reflect it on the experiences you had. Why did you, it's not what is your compression or what is your abstraction? It's why did you come up with that? Like, how did you distill these gigabytes of sort of raw material into this soundbite? And why do you think that that's valuable? And what are the edge cases and what are the limits to that knowledge? And these are all sort of the questions that you can ask to get higher quality information.

当你和某人交流时，你希望对方能够表达自己的反思。因为在经历中，不仅仅是直接经验，当你读一本书、参与这个对话时，你也在经历着某种体验。因此，在你有这种体验时，你希望能看到别人对信息的反思，因为这会帮助你更好地理解发生了什么，为什么会发生，未来可能会发生什么。但这也会改变你向人们提问的方式。所以，当你需要向他人征求意见或建议时，如果你从这种学习的角度思考，你真正想知道的是，你是如何反思你所经历的。你为什么会得出那样的结论？你是如何将这些庞大的原始材料浓缩成一个简明扼要的表达？你为什么认为这有价值？这个知识的边界和限制在哪里？这些都是你可以提出的问题，从而获得更高质量的信息。

A great example is like, if you go to your doctor and he says, hey, you need heart surgery, and you go, who should I use as a surgeon? That's going to give you the answer. But if you ask him, how would you think about picking a surgeon? That's going to show you how he thinks about it and why he thinks that way. I love that. I want to dive in here. For the introduction of your book, you discussed the power of clear thinking in the ordinary moments. When I think about something like the Pareto principle, it would suggest that, you know, a few big decisions are going to drive a lot of the direction in our lives. You think about who we marry, the career we select, the city we live in, who our friends are. But you actually argue that it's the decisions in the ordinary moments that matter most to our success. So I'd love for you to expand on this concept here. This is hard to appreciate. So perhaps an example will just make it very salient to people. You can pick the right career, the right person to marry, the right town to live in. You can get all of that right. And in those moments, you know, you're making a decision. So you consciously weigh trade offs. You think about it. You're generally right. Often, you know, we're mistaken, but we're mistaken sort of like later on because things change or something's different. We're not mistaken in the moment. We usually generally make those decisions right. But if I pick the right career for me, and I don't show up Monday morning, every Monday, and work my butt off, it doesn't really matter that I picked the right career. It just multiplies by zero. If I pick the right partner, but I don't invest in that relationship and I take it for granted, and I'm not there when they need me and I'm not a good partner, it just goes to zero. But all of those things I just mentioned are the everyday ordinary moments that we don't think about. And what tends to happen in those ordinary moments is we don't realize we're making a decision.

一个很好的例子就像，如果你去看医生，他说你需要心脏手术，然后你问他，我应该选择什么样的外科医生？这样就能给你答案。但是如果你问他，你如何考虑选择外科医生？这就能展示给你他的思考方式以及他为什么这样思考。我喜欢这一点。我想深入探讨一下。在你的书的介绍中，你讨论了在平凡时刻中清晰思考的力量。当我思考像帕累托法则这样的东西时，它会认为，你知道，一些重要的决定会驱动我们生活中的很多方向。比如你选择婚姻对象、职业、所居城市、朋友等。但你实际上认为，在日常的平凡时刻中做出的决定对我们的成功最为重要。所以我希望你能在这个概念上展开一下。这很难被理解。也许一个例子会让人们对此有很明显的认识。你可能选择了正确的职业、婚姻对象、居住城市，你可能在那些时刻做出了正确的决定。所以你会有意识地权衡利弊，思考这些问题。你通常是正确的，尽管有时我们会犯错，但是这些错误通常是后来发现的，因为情况改变了或者有些不同了。我们在当下做出决定时通常不会犯错误。但如果我选择了适合我的职业，却在每个星期一早上不努力工作，那么选择适合我的职业也就没有了意义，乘以零等于零。如果我选择了合适的伴侣，却不投入这段关系，对此视而不见，并且不在他们需要我的时候给予帮助，不成为一个好伴侣，那么它也会变成零。但所有这些我刚刚提到的，都是我们不曾思考的日常平凡时刻。而在这些日常平凡时刻中往往发生的是我们没有意识到我们正在做出决定。

A great example is sort of a common one that I hear is sort of the dishwasher. One partner loads the dishwasher one way, one partner loads the dishwasher the other way. And this is a source of tension in quite a number of relationships for some reason. And so you come home and it's been a long day and all of a sudden there's a little passive aggressive comment and that passive aggressive comment, then you escalate, you reply with a passive aggressive comment. And before you know it, you're basically like not talking to each other on a Friday night. And nobody wanted that outcome. And nobody was conscious about that. If I tapped you on the shoulder halfway through that and said, Hey, Clay, you're about to pour gas on the situation or water onto this situation when you reply. Then all of a sudden, this ordinary moment, you would be like, Oh, I want to put water on this. But you don't know you're doing that because you're just responding. Your defaults are in charge and your biology is in charge.

一个很好的例子就是洗碗机。我经常听到的一个例子是，一个伴侣把洗碗机放在一种方式上，另一个伴侣又以另一种方式放置。由于某种原因，这成为很多关系中的紧张源泉。当你一天工作疲惫地回到家，突然出现了一些带有被动攻击意味的评论，然后你升级回复一个带有被动攻击意味的评论。在你意识到之前，你们在一个周五晚上不再交谈。没有人想要这种结果，也没有人有意识地为此做准备。如果在这个过程中，我半途拍了拍你的肩膀，说：“嘿，克莱，当你回复时你即将火上浇油或加水以解决问题”，那么这个普通的瞬间你会想：“哦，我想要解决这个问题。”但你并不知道你正这样做，因为你只是在回应。你的默认设置支配着你，你的生物本能支配着你。

And so if we want to tie this to some of the concepts in the book, like we're animals, like we're just that is who we are. The difference between humans and other animals is that we have the ability to reason before responding, whereas no other animal really has that ability to the extent that we have it.

因此，如果我们想将这一观点与书中的某些概念联系起来，比如说我们是动物，我们只是这样的存在。人类和其他动物之间的区别在于我们在做出反应之前有能力思考，而其他动物实际上没有我们这样的能力。

So what do we share in common with animals? Well, we're territorial, we're self preserving, we're hierarchical. And then also on top of that, we're emotional, we're ego driven, we follow the social cues of society and we follow inertia. And so we have all of these things working to basically circumvent our ability to think in these moments. And then what happens is the situation ends up thinking for us.

那么，我们与动物有哪些共同点呢？我们都有领地意识，自我保护和等级观念。除此之外，我们还有情感，我们受自我驱动，我们遵循社会的社交指引和惯性。因此，所有这些因素都在起作用，基本上削弱了我们在这些时刻思考的能力。然后，情况会代替我们思考。

And so when I say territorial, let's put that in context because people think, Oh, like I'm not territorial. You know, I don't go around pissing on the corner and sort of marking my territory like a dog or a wolf. Well, no, but your territory is your identity and how you see yourself. So a passive aggressive comment from your partner, all of a sudden triggers a biological instinct for you to respond. And when it triggers the instinct, you're not thinking. Mm hmm.

所以，当我说“领土”时，我们要把它放在上下文中，因为人们会认为，哦，好像我并不是有地域意识的。你知道，我不会四处撒尿，像狗或狼一样标记我的领地。嗯，不是这样的，但是你的领地是你的身份和你对自己的看法。因此，你的伴侣发表一句带有暗示的评论，突然激发了你的生物本能来做出回应。当它触发这种本能时，你没有思考。嗯。

You know, when you tie this into investing, I think about how people just become their own worst enemy when it comes to the decisions we're making. And that's why I think this book is so important. It's understanding, you know, the common pitfalls we have. And that's what's covered in the first part of your book. You call it the enemies of clear thinking, essentially outlining all these biological hardwirings that are ingrained in us. And we don't even realize that, you know, we're just acting based off our instincts. So like something goes up and we get FOMO and we just kind of chase because everyone else is is getting into it.

你知道，当把这与投资联系在一起时，我想到的是人们在做决策时往往成为自己最大的敌人。这就是为什么我认为这本书非常重要的原因。它帮助我们理解了我们常犯的错误。这也是你的书的第一部分所涵盖的内容。你把它称为清晰思考的敌人，概括了我们内在深深根植于心中的所有生物性本能。我们甚至没有意识到，我们只是根据本能行事。当某个东西价格上涨时，我们会因害怕错过而盲目追逐，因为其他人也在涌入。

So what are some of the common pitfalls you found that people fall prey to when it comes to these biological instincts? Well, just that, right? So it's like, if somebody slights you into meeting, you're going to respond. If you're emotional, you're hungry, you're angry, you're lonely, you're tired, we talk about halt in the book, which is a cue for alcoholics and onomists, you're going to respond. If you're thinking that you're right, and everybody else is wrong, or you're trying to prove yourself right, you're going to ignore information. You're driven by ego. And so you're putting your ego ahead of the outcome and the phrase that I like to use all the time with myself, it's actually here for a video. It's a little sticky note that's on my desk, on my monitor. And it says outcome over ego. And that's just a little visual reminder to me that I'm searching for the best outcome. I'm not searching to satisfy my ego. My ego is satisfied by the best outcome. And I think that we just don't think about these things. Like we're socially pressured into these situations.

那么，关于这些生物本能，有什么常见的陷阱你发现人们容易陷入呢？就是这样，对吧？如果有人冒犯你而使你不悦，你就会作出反应。如果你情绪激动、饥饿、愤怒、孤独或是疲惫，我们在书中称之为"停"（HALT），这是对酒精成瘾者和毒瘾者的警示，你也会作出反应。如果你坚信自己是对的，而别人都是错的，或者你试图证明自己是对的，你就会忽视信息。你受到自我驱使。所以你把自我放在结果之前，我喜欢用这个短语来形容自己，它实际上是一个贴在我办公桌和显示器上的便签。上面写着"结果超过自我"。这只是对我个人的一个视觉提示，提醒我要追求最好的结果，而不是满足自我的欲望。我相信我们通常不会思考这些问题，我们是被社会压力迫使进入这些情境的。

And so if you want to think about clear thinking, it sort of boils down to three core elements, the position that you're in at the time you make the decision, and the position is all the things that lead up to the moment of the decision. And can you manage sort of these urges that get other people in trouble when it comes to your emotion and your ego? And can you recognize when you're not thinking and the situation is thinking for you, such as inertia or a social situation? And then when you do that, you have the ability to think independently. And what you're trying to do, whether you're investing, you're running a business, or you're just working in an organization, is you're trying to create positive deviation. And positive deviation only comes when you go against what's happening and you're correct. You can't just go against what's happening. You have to be correct. And I think most people miss that. And so it's good to follow best practices, but you need to know when to opt out of those practices where it doesn't make sense.

所以，如果你想要考虑清晰的思考，它基本上可以归结为三个核心要素，即你在做出决策时所处的位置，而这个位置包括了决策时所有的先决条件。你能否管理那些使别人在情绪和自我方面陷入麻烦的冲动呢？你能否意识到当你没有思考而情况在代替你思考时，比如惯性或社交场合？一旦你办到了这些，你就有了独立思考的能力。无论是投资、经营企业，还是在组织中工作，你都在努力创造积极的偏差。而积极的偏差只有在你违背现状且正确时才能出现。不能仅仅违背现状，你还必须是正确的。我认为大多数人都忽视了这一点。所以遵循最佳实践是好的，但你需要知道何时退出这些实践，当它们不合理时。

So a couple of the points you hit on in the book, you have the ego default and the inertia default. And I think it ties in well where an object in motion tends to stay in motion. So you buy it into a company and you can fall prey to just hanging onto it because we don't want to regret having to sell it. So we're kind of protecting our ego in a way. If you sell it out of loss, you don't want to regret it and watch it rise after that. And it also is really painful to admit that you're wrong.

所以在书中你提到了一些要点，包括自我默认和惯性默认。我认为这与物体在运动中具有停留的倾向是相关的。如果你投资某个公司，你可能会陷入只是留着它不放的陷阱，因为我们不想后悔卖掉它。这样我们某种程度上是在保护我们的自尊心。如果你亏本卖了它，你不想后悔看着它在卖出后上涨。同时承认自己的错误也是非常痛苦的。

Yeah, that's the biggest problem, right? So putting the outcome ahead of your ego is just really an act of admitting that you're made a mistake in those cases. The very act of investing, though, is an ego-driven activity. You're buying from somebody who's selling. So you are assuming that you're smarter than they are or that you're going to get a better result than they are or you have a longer time horizon than they do. But there's all these fundamental assumptions that go into that that drive that behavior.

是的，这是最大的问题，对吧？所以将结果置于自我之上，实际上是承认在这些情况下你犯了错误。然而，投资本身是一种由自我的驱动活动。你从卖方那里购买东西。因此，你假设自己比他们更聪明，或者你会获得比他们更好的结果，或者你拥有比他们更长的时间跨度。但是，所有这些基本假设都进一步推动这种行为。

The act of buying an individual stock is fundamentally an ego-driven behavior. And your ego helps you. Like our ego isn't all bad, right? It compels us to sort of like try to land rockets on the moon and put up satellites in space and it compels us to build higher buildings than we've ever built before. And it compels the world to go forward. On an individual level, ego can be very destructive, but on a societal level, it tends to, so far, it's worked out to our advantage, all the weapons of mass destruction aside. But we just need to know when our ego is serving us and when it's not.

购买个股的行为基本上是出于自我驱动的行为。而你的自我有助于你。就像我们的自我并不完全是坏的一样，对吧？它驱使我们试图将火箭登月，将卫星送入太空，驱动我们建造比以往更高的建筑。它驱使这个世界向前发展。在个体层面上，自我可能非常具有破坏性，但在社会层面上，迄今为止，除了大规模杀伤性武器之外，它往往对我们有利。但我们只需要知道何时我们的自我在为我们服务，何时不在为我们服务。

You can sort of come up with situations like one example is like, how do we get out of these defaults, right? The emotion, ego, social, inertia. Like, what do we do to sort of step out of this? And I'm angry. I'm going to make a decision. Well, in that moment, I don't recognize that I'm angry. So it's one thing to say, please, you just have to catch yourself and take a breath. We sort of talk about that in the book. That's one element to sort of avoiding these situations, but can you avoid them? Can you create rules to circumvent them when they do happen? And fail safe being, if I can't do any of that stuff, then can I recognize that I'm in the moment and do something about it?

你可以想出一些情境，比方说，如何摆脱这些默认模式，对吗？情绪、自我、社交和惯性。比如，我们该如何走出这种困境呢？而且我很生气，我要做出决定。然而，在那个瞬间，我并没有意识到自己的愤怒。所以，说出来很容易，只需要意识到自己的情绪并深呼吸一下。我们在书中也谈到了这一点。这是避免这种情况发生的一个因素，但你能避免它们吗？当它们发生时，你能制定规则来规避它们吗？而在万不得已的情况下，如果我无法做任何事情，我能意识到自己处在此刻并采取行动吗？

But every other book I've read about this is like, oh, you just need to recognize your hands getting, you know, your jaw getting tight and your hands getting sweaty and then you're angry and you shouldn't make a decision. And everybody I've talked to, it's like maybe you get 20% of the time, you actually can catch yourself in the moment. But most of the time, I don't know, but you ever sent a nasty email, right? You're angry. You're just like sitting there typing. And in that moment, like you're angry, but like, you don't think you're angry. You're not making a decision in that moment. So like you need sort of like safeguards to avoid that, which is like, I don't send email after nine o'clock or you can come up with these little automatic rules to prevent that from happening or time delay, right? Which is, you know, every email I type after 5 p.m. I just send the next day. That gives you a little bit of space between what's happening and sending. Let's tap into those safeguards here.

但是我读过的其他书基本上都是这样说的，嗯，你只需要认识到你的手变得紧张、你的下巴变得紧绷，你的手心变得出汗，然后你就会生气，你不应该做决定。而且我和每个我谈过的人都这样，也许你只能在20%的时间里真正意识到自己当下的状态。但大部分时间，你知道吗，你曾经发过愤怒的电子邮件，对吧？你很生气，只是坐在那里敲字。而在那个瞬间，你生气，但是你不觉得自己生气。你在那个时刻不会做出决定。所以你需要一些保护措施来避免这种情况发生，比如说，我不会在晚上九点后发送电子邮件，或者你可以制定一些自动规则来防止这种情况发生，比如说时间延迟，就是你知道，我在下午5点之后输入的所有邮件，我都会第二天发送。这样可以在发生和发送之间给你一点空间。我们来利用这些保护措施吧。

You have a number mentioned in the book. You have prevention. You have automatic roles for success, creating friction, putting in guardrails. And then shifting your perspective. So I'd love for you to tap in on a couple of these. Yeah. My two favorites are sort of automatic rules for success and then shifting your perspective. And let me tie that in to like, we've been taught our whole life to follow rules, right? Here's the speed limit. You follow it. Here's the tax code. You follow it. You break the rules and you suffer the consequences. And we've been taught so well to follow rules that they actually just work as the default. We don't consciously follow the rules. We just follow them. We learn the rule and that our brain sort of like just follows along with it. We don't even negotiate.

你在书中提到了一个数字。你有预防措施。你有自动的成功规则，可以创造摩擦，设定道德约束。然后改变你的观点。所以我希望你能详细介绍其中的几个。是的。我最喜欢的两个是自动的成功规则和改变观点。让我把它与我们一生都被教导遵守规则联系起来，对吧？这里有速度限制。你遵守它。这是税法。你遵守它。你违反规则就会受到惩罚。我们被教得很好遵守规则，以至于它们实际上成为默认的行为。我们并不是有意识地遵守规则。我们只是跟随它们。我们学习了规则，我们的大脑也会跟着行动。我们甚至不用讨论。

And this is a crazy idea when you think about it because what we've never done is think about, well, how can I use these rules to my advantage? How can I create my own set of rules that my brain is going to follow independent of the situation, independent of the context that's going to allow me to turn my desired behavior into my default behavior? And so like some of the rules that I have are like this month aside, it's on pause for this month, but no meetings before 12. And I work out every day. And one of the the work out every day one has changed so many people's lives. And the reason it changes your life is because it most people I assume are like me.

当你考虑这个想法时，这真是一个疯狂的想法，因为我们从未考虑过如何利用这些规则来让自己受益。我们从未考虑过如何创造自己的一套规则，使我们的大脑无论处于何种情境、何种背景下，都能将我们期望的行为变成默认行为。所以，我有一些规则，比如这个月除外，在12点之前不安排会议。我每天锻炼身体。其中每天锻炼身体的规则改变了很多人的生活。之所以它改变你的生活，是因为我猜大多数人跟我一样。

I was trying to work out like three days a week and I would wake up and I'd be like, you know, I'm really tired today. I'm really busy today. And I was certain negotiating with myself. It's like, oh, I'll do extra tomorrow. I'm not going to work out today, but I'll all lie to myself and tell myself that I'll do extra tomorrow. And that's all it was. It was a lie. And why am I negotiating with myself over something that I want to do? And so I just changed this around to like, I'm going to work out every day. I'm going to change the scope and duration because when I wake up, my conversation isn't, am I going to work out today? Am I going to sweat today? It's when am I going to fit this in and how much time do I have? So I might go to the gym and just do a set of squats and then leave. I might just go for a quick run. And then that's the end of it. Or am I go for 60 or 90 minutes, depending on what's going on in the day? The negotiation with myself has changed from, should I do this today? I'm going to do how much am I going to do today? And that allows for a powerful momentum and inertia and consistency that sort of works to my advantage later on in life.

我曾试图每周锻炼三天，每天醒来时，我总是感到非常疲倦。我觉得今天真的太忙了。而我也会不断和自己讨价还价。就像说，哦，我今天不锻炼了，明天我会多做一些。但那都只是谎言。为什么我要在我想做的事情上和自己讨论？因此，我改变了方法，决定每天都要锻炼。我改变了范围和时间的安排，所以当我醒来时，我不再询问自己今天要不要锻炼，要不要出汗。而是问自己，我能在什么时间做这件事？我有多少时间可以用？所以我可能只去健身房做一组蹲起然后离开。也可能只是去快速跑一下。或者，根据当天的情况，我可能会锻炼60或90分钟的时间。我和自己的讨价还价已经改变了，从今天该不该做这件事变成了今天要做多少这件事。这样一来，我就能保持强大的动力和连贯性，这对我未来的生活非常有利。

You can think about other automatic rules like investing in an index fund every month or I stopped drinking at nine. It's my rule, a friend of mine created a rule around not eating dessert. He was sort of like trying to eat healthier, but every time you try to eat healthier, you know, he didn't want to be on our diet. He's just like, I'm trying to eat healthier, but he goes to a restaurant. He's out with his colleagues. They're celebrating. They're like, here, we're having dessert. We're having all of this stuff and you need to celebrate with us. And it's a willpower choice at that point. And everybody loses the battle with willpower eventually. You are not that strong. You're not stronger than your environment. You are temporarily and you might deceive yourself into thinking you're stronger than your environment, but you're not. So you have to create an artificial environment in your head. The circumvent all of these choices. So you don't even make a choice. You just follow your rule.

你可以考虑其他的自动规则，像每个月投资指数基金，或者我九点停止喝酒。这是我的规矩，我的一个朋友也制定了一个规矩不吃甜点。他想要吃得更健康，但每次他试图吃得更健康，他并不想遵守我们的饮食规定。他说，“我在试着吃得更健康”，但他去餐厅，和同事们一起庆祝。他们说，“来，我们吃甜点，来吃这些东西，和我们一起庆祝。”这时候，这就成为一个意志力的选择。每个人最终都会在意志力上失败。你并不是那么坚强。你没有比你的环境更强大。你只是暂时地欺骗自己认为你比你的环境更强大，但事实并非如此。所以，你必须在自己的思维中创造一个人工环境，绕过所有的选择，以便你不需要做出决策，只需要遵循自己的规矩。

And the idea for rules came to me from Daniel Kahneman. I was in his penthouse. He answered the phone and I remember hearing him say, you know, my rule is I don't say yes on the phone. And when he hung up, I was like, tell me more about this. And he's like, you know, I found I'm a pleaser and I'm saying yes to things I don't want to do because I don't want to disappoint the person on the other end of the line. So I tell them my rule is I don't say yes on the phone. I reply back tomorrow via email. And I was like, well, what changed? And he's like, well, I used to say yes, like 80% of the time. And now I say yes, like 10% of the time. And I'm like, that is so powerful. Another really interesting point on that is the social pressure when it comes to making decisions, people tend to not question rules, but they will question your decision. So if you just you tell someone, Hey, I'm not going to have a drink tonight. They'll like, you know, maybe attack you a little bit. Maybe give you a hard time. If you say, you know, I don't drink on Friday nights or I don't drink period, then they'll just be like, okay, like this is an up for negotiation. Yeah. Cause it's not a willpower choice. When it's a willpower choice, they're going to push back. But it's the same reason you don't drive down the highway going like, why is the speed limit 70? It should be 75. You know, you just don't think about it because that's the rule.

这个想法是从丹尼尔·卡尼曼那里启发而来的。当时我在他的顶楼公寓里。他接了个电话，我记得听到他说：“你知道，我的原则是我不会在电话里答应。”他挂断电话后，我就问他更多细节。他告诉我说：“你知道，我发现自己是个怕拒绝别人的人，所以我常常会答应一些我不想做的事情，因为我不想让电话那头的人失望。所以我告诉他们，我的原则是不在电话里答应，而是通过邮件明天回复。”我问他说：“那是什么改变了呢？”他回答说：“以前我说‘是’的概率大概是80%，现在只有10%。这个改变太有力量了。”还有一个很有趣的观点是，社会压力对于做决定时是有影响的，人们往往不会质疑规则，但会质疑你的决定。如果你告诉别人：“嗨，我今晚不喝酒。”他们可能会对你有点攻击性或者给你难堪。但如果你说：“嗨，我周五晚上不喝酒”或者“我从不喝酒”，那他们可能就会说：“好吧，这是不能商量的。”因为这不是一个意志力的选择。当它需要意志力时，人们会反对你。但这也是为什么你在高速公路上开车时不会想着：“为什么限速是70？应该是75。”你根本不会去考虑这个，因为那就是规定。

Are there any rules that come to mind when it comes to investment decisions or is that something you've thought about when it comes to this idea of having rules in place?

在做投资决策时，你有没有想到过任何规则呢？或者当涉及到建立规则的这个想法时，你有没有思考过这个问题？

Well, sort of, I mean, I guess it really depends on what you mean by investment decisions, right? I think of a lot of investing is positioning in terms of like, can the company survive across time? Because one of the biggest lessons from history that everybody seems to forget is that things fluctuate interest rates fluctuate, environments fluctuate, access to capital fluctuates.

嗯，有点吧，我的意思是，我想这主要取决于你所说的投资决策是什么意思，对吧？我认为，投资很大程度上是在考虑公司是否能够经受住时间的考验。因为历史上最大的教训之一是，人们似乎总是忘记了事物是波动的，利率波动，环境波动，资本获取渠道也波动不定。

And if you look back at most of the greats in history, the people that we would think of who have built great businesses, they're always playing offense in periods of panic or uncertainty. So they're always well positioned to thrive when things are good and thrive when things are bad. A great example of that in plain sight is sort of Berkshire Hathaway, right? There's $150 billion on the balance sheet in cash. So the stock market goes up. He wins stock markets stays the same. He wins stock market tanks. He wins interest rates go up. He wins interest rates go down. He wins like there's no, he just wins in every scenario.

如果你回顾历史上的大多数伟人，那些我们认为建立了伟大企业的人，在恐慌或不确定时期总是保持进攻态势。所以无论是在好时期还是坏时期，他们始终处于有利地位，能够茁壮成长。一个明显的例子就是伯克希尔·哈撒韦，对吧？他们的资产负债表上有1500亿美元的现金。如果股市上涨，他获胜；股市保持不变，他获胜；股市崩盘，他获胜；利率上升，他获胜；利率下降，他获胜；就像没有任何情况下他都能获胜一样。

And one of the most underappreciated facts to sort of clear thinking and why people get consistently better results than other people is they put themselves in a better position to be successful long before the moment of decision. And if you'll indulge me for a second, I'll give you an example of this and how I applied it to parenting a few weeks ago with one of my, one of my kids and, you know, he came home with one of his exams and he got a really bad grade. And he hands it to me and he's like, I did my best and he walks by and I look at the grade and I'm like, Oh my God, don't say anything in this moment because I know from playing sports when I was a kid playing football that like most of my friends ended up quitting sports in the car ride on the way home after the game. And it was always the parents. So I was like, I'm not going to say anything.

一个最被低估的事实是，那些能够清晰思考并且取得长期成功的人，会在决策之前就将自己置于一个更好的位置。请允许我给你举一个例子，几周前，我在教育孩子方面也是这样做的。有一天，我的一个孩子拿回家一张糟糕的考试成绩单，他递给我说：“我已经尽力了”，然后径直走开了。我看着那个成绩单，心想：“不要在这个时候说什么”，因为我从小踢足球的经历中知道，大多数朋友都是在比赛结束后坐车回家的时候放弃了这项运动，而这往往与家长的言行有关。所以我决定，我不会在这个时候说任何事情。

I wait, the emotions sort of like calm down. And then we talk about it. I'm like, well, you said you did your best. Like, what does that mean? And he's like, well, at 10 a.m. When I sat down for my test, I'm like, yeah, walk me through it. Like I want to know all the details here. It's going to sound silly, but like indulge me. And he's like, I read every question. I figured out which questions were worth the most. Like he followed his little procedure to take on tests and he did the best of his ability. And I'm like, that's great. So you did the best in the moment of the decision, but let's rewind here. Did you get a good night's sleep the night before? No. Did you read a healthy breakfast? No, because I slept in. Why were you up late? Oh, I was cramming. I was trying to predict what was on the test because I didn't want to spend the time studying all the material. Did you get into a fight with your brother? I did because I was really aggravated in the morning. So like, did you study in the three days before or did you try only to cram? Well, I tried only to cram. So yeah, you did your best in that moment, but you put yourself in a poor position by not doing these things that are all within your control before the moment of decision.

我等待着，情绪有点平静下来。然后我们讨论这件事。我说，嗯，你说你已经尽力了。那意味着什么？他说，嗯，在上午10点我坐下来参加考试，我说，好的，给我讲清楚一些。我想知道所有的细节。这可能听起来有点傻，但请满足我的好奇心。他说，我读了每一道题，找出了哪些题目最重要。他遵循了他解题的小程序，尽了最大的努力。我说，那很好。所以你在决定的那一刻尽力了，但让我们回到之前。你前一晚睡得好吗？不是。你吃了健康的早餐吗？没有，因为我睡过头了。你为什么夜里睡得这么晚？噢，我在临时抱佛脚，试图预测考试中会考到什么，因为我不想花时间去学习所有的材料。你和你兄弟吵架了吗？是的，因为早上我真的很生气。所以，你在考试前的三天是否有认真学习，还是仅仅抱佛脚？嗯，我只是试图临时抱佛脚。所以，是的，你在那个时刻尽力了，但是在决策之前，你由于没有做这些都在你控制范围内的事情，把自己置于了一个糟糕的位置。

And so we think about decisions as being rational in that moment, but a lot of rationality is also just putting yourself in a position. You can't predict the future. Things are going to change. You don't know when they're going to change. Nobody's going to give you a warning saying, Hey, go home. In two weeks, COVID's coming. No, it's just the world shuts down and you have to deal with it as you are. Same with emotional crisis or relationship crisis. All of these things just happen without warning and they always just sort of like hit you at the worst possible time. And so that's why it's so important to think about your positioning on a daily basis and that positioning can be as simple as sort of like sleep, working out, eating healthy, doing the basic things within your control to be able to withstand and reduce your emotional forces at the same time.

因此，我们认为决策是在那一刻是理性的，但很多理性也只是将自己处于一种位置。你无法预测未来，事情会发生变化，你也不知道何时会发生变化。没有人会警告你，嘿，回家吧，两周后新冠病毒要来了。不会的，世界只会关闭，你必须接受并应对。同样，情感危机或关系危机也是如此。所有这些事情都会突然发生，而且总是在最糟糕的时间袭来。因此，每天都要考虑自己的位置非常重要，这个位置可以简单地包括睡眠、锻炼、健康饮食，做一些在自己控制范围内的基本事情，以便能够抵御和减轻情感的冲击。

But it can also be investing in your relationship and sort of building that with your partner and your spouse. Why is that important? Because when the inevitable crisis hits, when the inevitable argument hits, if you have a solid foundation, you're going to be a lot better off. A friend of mine, Peter Kaufman mentioned, you know, there's a patch of grass between you and your partner. And every time you invest in your relationship and you cuddle and you connect and you spend time together and you do things that are fun, you're watering that grass. And if you don't do those things, the grass dries out and any little spark will set that on fire when you have dry grass. But if you have wet grass, it doesn't, you can basically pour fire on it and it's not going to start. And I thought that was like such a powerful way to frame this.

但这也可以是对你和你的伴侣、配偶的关系进行投资，以此构建稳固的基础。为什么这很重要？因为当不可避免的危机到来，当不可避免的争吵发生时，如果你有一个坚实的基础，你会有更好的应对能力。我的一个朋友Peter Kaufman提到过，你和你的伴侣之间有一块草坪。每当你像亲密、联系、共度时光和做有趣的事情这样投资你们的关系时，你就在给这块草坪浇水。如果你不做这些事情，草坪就会干枯，任何一点小火花都会在干燥的草坪上引燃。但如果你的草坪湿润，你基本上可以往上倒火，它也不会着火。我觉得这是一种非常有力的表述方式。

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A minute ago, you talked about how we can't rely on discipline. And I wanted to tie this into managing our environment here. You talked about how many of our habits, these are very hard-coded into us. And many of those hard-wirings, they come from our environment and the people we surround ourselves with. And in your book, you wrote, many of the algorithms you're running have been programmed into you by evolution, culture, ritual, your parents, and your community. Some of these algorithms help move you closer to what you want. Others help you move further away. You unconsciously adopt the habits of the people you spend time with. And those people make it easier or harder for you to achieve progress toward what you want to achieve. So this idea of thinking that we can be disciplined, it's like, Oh, it's okay. If I hang out with these group of people, but over time, we just unconsciously pick up the habits, pick up the thought processes of these people. And it just points to really we need to be mindful of who we surround ourselves with, because our defaults are essentially going to drift or just go astray into the direction we maybe don't want it to if we don't hang out with the right people.

刚才，你谈到了我们不能依赖纪律这件事。我想把这与我们在这里管理环境联系起来。你说过我们许多习惯都是与生俱来的，并且很多这些习惯都是来自我们的环境和身边的人。在你的书中，你写道，许多你正在运行的算法是通过进化、文化、仪式、你的父母和社区编程到你的身上的。其中一些算法有助于使你更接近你想要的东西，而其他一些则会使你离目标更远。你无意识地采纳了与你共度时光的人们的习惯。这些人会让你更容易或更难实现你的目标。所以，认为我们可以自律的想法就像是，“噢，没关系，如果我和这些人一起玩，”但随着时间的推移，我们就会无意识地接纳他们的习惯、思维方式。这实际上指向了我们需要注意与谁为伍这一点，因为我们的默认模式很可能会偏离或走向我们不希望的方向，如果我们和错误的人待在一起的话。

Yeah, it's not only who you hang out with. You can think of your environment in multiple ways, right? One of your environment is sort of your physical environment, which would include the people you hang out with. But another aspect to your environment that's really important to everybody listening to this podcast is sort of start at the top and the inflow and the filter. Who am I listening to? Who am I reading online? I might not know these people, but I'm spending a lot of time consuming their information and those thoughts are going to dictate the thoughts that I let in my head are going to dictate my future thoughts. They're going to impact me in a way that I can't really perceive. And I can't really know just the same way that your friends impact you. It doesn't happen all at once. It's gradual, gradual, gradual. And you start if you are an ambitious person and your three closest friends are super lazy, you will become lazy. It's just sort of inevitable. You think you can't. You can use willpower. You can fight it for so long. But over time, it's just going to change. Just like if you're three closest friends smoke, you will eventually start to smoke. It's just sort of, it's such a powerful force, but we don't think of environment, but we can also part of what we're doing with automatic rules for success is we're creating an artificial environment where we can thrive and turn our desired behavior into our default behavior. You can do that with people too, where you're hanging around people that you want to learn from, that, you know, maybe more driven from you. If you want to work harder, you hang around with people who work hard, take jobs where you're required to work hard and you're going to start working harder.

是的，你的环境不仅仅是和谁交往的问题。你可以以多种方式思考你的环境，对吧？你的环境之一是你的物理环境，其中包括你交往的人。但对于我们所有听这个播客的人来说，另一个与你的环境相关的重要方面是从顶层开始的流入和过滤。我在听谁说话？我在网上阅读的是谁的内容？我可能不认识这些人，但我花了很多时间消费他们的信息，这些思想将决定我允许进入我的头脑的思想，而这些思想将以我难以察觉的方式影响我。我无法真正知道，就像你的朋友对你的影响一样。这并不是一蹴而就的，是一个逐渐的过程。如果你是一个有抱负的人，而你最亲近的三个朋友都很懒惰，你也会变得懒惰。这是不可避免的。你可能觉得你不行，可以凭意志力抵抗很久，但随着时间的推移，它会改变的。就像如果你最亲近的三个朋友抽烟，你最终也会开始抽烟。这是一种强大的力量，我们没有意识到环境的影响。但我们可以通过自动成功规则的方式创造一个人工环境，在这个环境中我们可以茁壮成长，将我们想要的行为变成我们的默认行为。你也可以用这种方式对待人际关系，和你想要学习的人交往，与比你更努力的人交往。如果你想更加努力工作，和努力工作的人交往，选择那些需要你努力工作的工作，你就会开始更加努力地工作。

I wanted to tap in more to decision making here. When I think about, you know, this is an investing show, most new investors, they associate a good investment with something that goes up in price and they associate a bad investment with that, which goes down in price. And I always think of the example of poker when I think about this, you know, expert poker players know that you need to learn to differentiate a great decision from a great outcome. You know, you could make it the best, you know, the best decision, but it could just totally turn against you. And, you know, you made the right decision, but you just have to accept the fact that eventually things just don't go you way. And we don't live in a world where there's absolute certainty, especially when it comes to investing. So I'd like for you to talk more about how we should distinguish between, you know, the process of making a decision and separating that from the ultimate outcome that ends up happening. Yeah.

我想更深入地了解这里的决策过程。当我思考时，你知道，这是一档投资节目，大多数新投资者将良好的投资与股价上涨联系在一起，将不良投资与股价下跌联系在一起。当我思考这个问题时，我总是想到扑克的例子，你知道，专业扑克玩家知道你需要学会区分一个好决策和一个好结果。你可能做出最好的决策，但结果可能完全对立。你做出了正确的决策，但你必须接受这样一个事实，即最终有些事情不会朝你期望的方向发展。在投资方面，我们生活在一个没有绝对确定性的世界，所以我希望你能谈谈我们如何区分决策过程和最终结果之间的差异。是的。

So a few thoughts there. One, if you're wrong on any individual decision, like you get a bad outcome, not that you're wrong, but you get a bad outcome on any individual decision. That doesn't mean you're wrong. But if the body of work collectively indicates the same pattern, then there's something wrong with the way you're making the decision, the way you see the world, your perception on it, you're making the mistake. So one decision is a signal, but like a body of work is like, that's a really strong signal that something's wrong.

所以，我有几点想法。首先，如果你在任何一次决策中出错，例如得到一个糟糕的结果，这并不意味着你错了。但是，如果整体的工作表明同样的模式，那么你在做决策的方式、对世界的看法、你对它的感知上出现了问题，你犯了错误。因此，一次决策只是一个信号，但多次决策形成的整体工作就像是一个非常强烈的信号，表明有些问题出现了。

You can't just look at the outcomes, but what you can do is create a decision journal for what you knew at the time you made the decision. And more importantly, what you considered relevant and why, going back to what we talked about earlier with the learning loop, you sort of articulate the situation and then you reflect on it. And that reflection draws out a conclusion, but you're writing it out and you write it out in pen. Don't use a, don't use a computer template for this. Because you'll read it later and convince yourself that somebody else wrote it or somebody else edited it. You need to see your handwriting. So it's like, what's the situation? What do you think is going to happen? Why? What are the odds of it happening? And then when you go back and you look at the outcome, well, here's what I actually thought was relevant. Here's what I thought was going to be the determining factor.

你不能只看结果，但你可以创建一个决策日志，记录你在做出决策时所知道的信息以及你认为相关的原因。更重要的是，回到我们之前谈到的学习循环，你会将情况描述出来，然后进行反思。这种反思会得出一个结论，但你需要用钢笔将其写下来，不要使用电脑模板。因为你以后会阅读它，并让自己相信是别人写的或编辑的。你需要看到自己的手写。所以，情况是什么？你认为会发生什么？为什么？它发生的可能性有多大？然后当你回过头去看结果时，好吧，这就是我实际上认为重要的东西。这就是我认为将成为决定因素的东西。

More often than not, a lot of times what we see is that we got the answer right, but not for the reasons we are articulated. And is that luck? There's an element of that, or maybe your body's feeling something that you can't quite articulate. But what you're really trying to do is calibrate, where do I make good decisions? Where do I make bad decisions? How do I get better at this? And I'm not just looking at the outcome. Now I'm starting to evaluate the process I use to come up with that outcome. So if I'm consistently missing on, you know, I'm overconfident or I'm consistently missing on the range of outcomes, well, now I can incorporate that into my process. So I have a better process for making decisions.

往往情况是，我们经常看到我们得到了正确答案，但我们表达的原因并不正确。这是运气吗？在其中确实有一部分运气，或者也许是你的身体感觉到了一些你无法言明的东西。但你真正想要做的是校准，我在哪里做出了好的决策？我在哪里做出了糟糕的决策？我如何变得更好？我不只是关注结果，现在开始评估我用来得出结果的过程。所以如果我持续地犯错，比如我过于自信，或者持续地犯错在结果的范围上，那么我可以把这些纳入我的过程中。这样我就能拥有一个更好的做决策的过程。

You kind of touched on this here. It's really hard to differentiate between a good process and a good decision and something that just happened to be luck. So could you talk more about how we can distinguish between a good process and good decisions and maybe just getting lucky? Yeah.

你在这里有点提到了这个问题。要区分一个好的流程和一个好的决策，以及仅仅碰巧发生的事情，实际上是非常困难的。你能再详细谈谈我们如何区分好的流程、好的决策和仅仅是运气吗？是的。

Well, it sort of depends on the type of decision you're making too, right? If you think in terms of like Jeff Bezos and he says one way doors and two way doors, if you have a two way door, you really don't want to think too much about your decision, the cost of failures really low. So the biggest cost is going slow. Whereas with a one way door, the cost of failures really high. So the biggest problem is, you know, you get it wrong. So you want to go slow. And I think that those two processes lend them and it's a continuum. You're sort of like, it's not quite binary either way. There's very few things that are completely a one way door. And there's very few things that have sort of no cost to undo.

嗯，这在很大程度上取决于你做出的决策类型，对吧？如果你想到像杰夫·贝佐斯所说的单程门和双程门，如果你面临一个双程门的选择，你真的不想过多思考你的决定，因为失败的成本很低。所以最大的成本是变得慢。而对于单程门，失败的成本非常高。所以最大的问题是，你犯错了。因此，你应该走得慢一点。我认为这两个过程就像是一个连续体。并不是完全二元的选择。几乎没有完全是单程门的事情。也几乎没有完全没有撤销成本的事情。

Um, but when you're looking at those decisions, you want to have a different process around those decisions. And so the one way doors, as you get towards that end of the continuum, you want to have a more rigorous process around that than the one way door or the two way door when you allow people to exercise judgment and go really fast. And so it comes down to, Hey, you know, on this individual decision, you were wrong, we evaluated it. Uh, it didn't come out the way you wanted it to. But that doesn't mean that you made the bad decision. It means we got the bad outcome. And I think that that's really important to figure out, but you have to do the work to figure that out. It's not always easy to do that work. And again, one signal is one decision is a bad signal, but a body of decisions collectively where you're making repeated decisions in a very similar environment. You're getting really solid feedback that there's something wrong with the process. So I would look to change the process. Um, and you want to incorporate this, right? Like if organizations tend to be wrong in one way, you want to add that to the process. If something is going into the process, it's not valuable. This is an important component to you want to remove it from the process. Cause you don't want to have too much weight to the process. You want to have just enough to get the best outcomes possible.

嗯，但是当你对这些决策进行审视时，你希望在这些决策周围有一个不同的过程。因此，随着你接近连续性的结尾，你希望在这方面有一个更严格的过程，而不是允许人们行使判断力并快速前进的单向门或双向门。因此，关键在于，嘿，你知道，在这个特定的决定上，你是错的，我们进行了评估。嗯，它的结果并不符合你的预期。但这并不意味着你做了错误的决定，而是意味着我们获得了糟糕的结果。我认为这一点非常重要，但你必须付出努力才能找出答案。这并不总是容易做到。而且，再次强调，一个信号只是一个不好的决策信号，但是在一个非常相似的环境中做出重复决策的一系列决策体现出有问题的过程。所以我会寻求改变这个过程。嗯，你希望将这个纳入过程中，对吧？如果组织在某个方面经常出错，你希望将它添加到过程中。如果某个东西进入了过程，却没有价值，你希望将其从过程中移除。因为你不希望过程变得过于复杂，你只希望有足够的权重来获得最佳结果。

I like how you also in the book, you talk about what really matters, you know, before we figure out what sort of decisions we should be making, we need to, you know, understand what's important to us and what is going to lead to a happy and fulfilling life and a life that we truly want. So we know what it is we're actually working towards. And as I was reading your book, I was actually reminded each summer with my family, I go on vacation to the Ozarks and I see all these nice lake houses. And I just think how wonderful it would be if I saved up some money and go by one of these wonderful lake houses and how that would make me so much happier. And another point in your book I deeply resonated with was you talked about how when you first joined the workforce, you, you know, you naturally just push for the promotion, push for the raise and become so fixated on this belief that that is going to bring you that happiness and fulfillment. And the problem with all this is that it sort of ties into the hedonic treadmill where we're always pushing for more and more and more. And we don't ever become satisfied with what it is that we have in that moment. And much of our intuition, it might tell us that these things are going to make us happy. And but if you really zoom out and you look at the big picture, it doesn't really matter all that much if you got that promotion or you had that lake house. So could you talk more about this idea of what truly matters to us and what's going to truly lead to a more happy and more fulfilling life?

我喜欢你在书中还提到了一些真正重要的事情，在我们决定应该做出什么样的决定之前，我们需要了解对我们而言重要的是什么，以及会带来幸福和满足感的是什么样的生活，这样我们才知道我们实际上在追求什么。当我阅读你的书时，我真的想起来每年夏天我都会和家人去奥扎克山度假，看到所有这些漂亮的湖边别墅，我就会想象如果我存钱买一个这样美丽的湖边别墅，那将会让我更加幸福。你书中还提到的另一个让我深有共鸣的观点是，当你刚开始工作时，你自然而然地追求晋升和加薪，并对这种信念变得过于固执，认为这将带给你幸福和满足感。而所有这一切问题，都与我们一直追求更多、更多相关，这种不满足的心态有关。我们的直觉可能告诉我们这些事情会让我们快乐，但如果你真正放眼整体，是否晋升或拥有那样的湖边别墅并不是那么重要。你能否更多地谈谈什么才是真正对我们重要的、真正会带来更幸福、更有满足感的生活？

Yeah, there's a big difference between getting what you want and wanting what matters. And I think we're culturally influenced and pressured into thinking something matters when if we step back and pause, it doesn't matter to us. And what that means is we end up playing life by other people's scoreboard instead of our own scoreboard. And we know this because if you read Carl Pilmer's work or anybody who you go to a retirement home or you go to an old age home and you talk to people, you'll quickly realize that most of what we think matters doesn't really matter when we get to the end of our life.

是的，得到自己想要的和追求真正重要的事情之间有着很大的区别。我认为我们受到文化的影响和压力，会让我们认为某些事情很重要，但如果我们退后一步，停下来思考，其实对我们来说并不重要。而这意味着我们最终会按照别人的评分标准来生活，而不是按照我们自己的评分标准。我们知道这一点，因为如果你读过卡尔·皮尔默的作品，或者和进入退休院或养老院的人们谈话，你很快就会意识到当我们走向生命的尽头时，我们认为重要的大部分事情实际上并不重要。

But how can we turn their hindsight into our foresight? And a great example of this is sort of like, who do we know that got everything they wanted in life, everything that they thought they wanted? And, you know, what are we taught? We were taught we want money, we want power, we want control, we want, we want to be well known, we want all these things. Well, there's a book that was written a long time ago called A Christmas Carol. And what did we know about ever need or a screw? Well, he got all of these things, right? Money, power, success, most well known person in his community. And what did he want at the end? He just wanted to do over because the way that he achieved those things was mutually exclusive from what really matters in life and what's meaningful in life. And I think that there's a lesson there for all of us. And there's a reason that book is still published and it still resonates with us.

但是我们怎样才能把他们的事后认识变成我们的预见呢？一个很好的例子是，我们认识哪些人在生活中得到了他们想要的一切？我们被教育的是什么？我们被教育要追求金钱、权力、控制、名声，我们想要得到所有这些东西。好吧，有一本书是很久之前写的，叫做《圣诞颂歌》。埃弗尼波齐那个人得到了所有这些东西，对吧？金钱、权力、成功，成为他所在社区中最有名的人。可是到最后他想要什么？他只想要重新开始，因为他实现这些目标的方式与生活中真正重要和有意义的事情相互排斥。我认为这对我们所有人都有一个教训。这本书仍然被出版并且与我们产生共鸣，这是有原因的。

And so often we just wake up too late and we realize we've played somebody else's game and it's too late for us to change it. And the important thing is just being conscious about what matters to you and what doesn't and that's going to change throughout your life. That's not to say what you want at 19 or 20 is going to be the same as what you want at 25 or 30. And what you want at 30 is not going to be the same as what you want at 60. The point is that you're working towards your own goals and you're playing towards your own scoreboard and you're not letting somebody else tell you what the scoreboard is.

很多时候我们常常醒悟得太晚，才意识到我们一直在玩别人的游戏，而现在已经晚了，我们已经无法改变它。重要的是要意识到对你来说什么重要，什么不重要，这在你的一生中会发生变化。这并不意味着你19或20岁时的愿望会和25或30岁时一样。而30岁时的愿望也不会和60岁时一样。关键是要朝着自己的目标努力，按照自己的标准来行动，而不是让别人告诉你应该追求什么。

You also talked in your book about the happiness study and they interviewed all these people who were later on in their lives. And one respondent said in my 89 years, I've learned that happiness is a choice and not a condition. And then later you wrote, happiness requires a conscious shift in our outlook in which one chooses daily optimism over pessimism, hope over despair. And here I realized that happiness is largely, it's something that's just internal. It's not necessarily dependent on these external factors, as you mentioned, and, you know, think about the digits in our bank account or something else external.

在你的书中，你也谈到了关于幸福研究的内容，他们采访了一些年龄稍大的人。其中一位被采访者说，在我89年的生活中，我学到了幸福是一种选择而不是一种状态。后来你写道，幸福需要我们有意识地改变自己的观点，选择日常的乐观而不是悲观，选择希望而不是绝望。在这里我意识到，幸福大部分是一种内在的感觉，不一定取决于外部因素，就像你之前提到的，不一定取决于我们银行账户里的数字或其他外部因素。

Yeah. And once we have these basics, we can really start to appreciate them and be happy and it just ties into this piece of gratitude, which I also think is so, so important. Happiness is really a mindset. And if it's a mindset, it's a choice. You're choosing what you look at, you're choosing what to value, you're choosing where to focus your attention. And in any given moment, in any ordinary moment, you can choose to focus on all these negative things, you can choose to focus on all the negative traits about people or situations, or you can choose to focus on the positives. That doesn't mean you have to be somebody's best friend.

是的。一旦我们掌握了这些基本的事情，我们才能真正开始欣赏它们并感到快乐，这与对感恩的心态紧密相连，我认为这非常重要。快乐实际上是一种心态。如果它是一种心态，那就是一种选择。你选择看什么，选择重视什么，选择关注什么。在任何时刻，在任何平凡的时刻，你可以选择关注所有负面的事情，你可以选择专注于人或事情的负面特点，或者你可以选择关注积极的方面。这并不意味着你必须成为某人的最好朋友。

But if I think negative things about you, it's going to affect my relationship with you, and I'm only going to see those negative things, and I'm not going to see all the good and the joy that maybe you offer to your, your partner or your kids or all these other aspects of your life, because I've written you off. And whenever I've written you off in my head, I stop even listening to the information that you provide. So now I got a big blind spot because you could be coming to me one day and say, Shane, you're about to go off the rails here. I'm going to save you from this, but I'd be like, ah, Clay, like, I don't like him. You know, and then you discount this information in a way that you shouldn't. And so I do think happiness is a choice. And I do think that we prefer that it wasn't a choice because then we can blame somebody else and we're a victim. And I just don't buy all that.

如果我对你持消极的看法，就会影响我和你的关系，我只会看到那些负面的东西，而不会看到你可能给你的伴侣、孩子或你生活中的其他方面带来的好处和快乐，因为我已经对你死心了。每当我在脑海中对你死心塌地时，我甚至不再听你提供的信息。所以现在我有个巨大的盲区，因为你某天可能会来对我说：“Shane，你快要出轨了，我要拯救你”，但我会说：“啊，Clay，我不喜欢他”。你懂的，然后你就会不应该地忽略这些信息。所以我认为幸福是一种选择。我也确实认为我们希望它不是一种选择，因为这样我们可以责怪别人，扮演受害者。但我就是不相信这一切。

I think that, you know, we get one life and it's our choice to be happy or not. And that means what you focus on and the mindset and the attitude you approach things with. And those are all things you control.

我认为，你知道的，我们只有一次生命，而快乐与否是我们的选择。这意味着你关注什么、心态如何以及对待事物的态度。这些都是你能掌控的事情。

When I look at you, Shane, I just see someone that has been pretty successful to say the least yet. You've been extremely successful in building out your blog and your newsletter, your podcast. You have a holding company that's very successful. And I'd love to get your insights on, you know, when you look at your own life and what's most important to you, what are some of the top things that, you know, make it to the top of your list? Because there's all these things I'm sure you're sort of grappling with in your own life and all these decisions you have to make, all these sort of balances you need to try and find. So what are some of the things that make the top of your list? On what's most important?

当我看着你，Shane，我看到的只是一个取得了相当大成功的人。你在建立自己的博客、邮件列表、播客方面非常成功。你有一个非常成功的控股公司。我很想听听你的见解，了解当你审视自己的生活和最重要的事情时，一些最重要的事情是什么。因为我相信在你的生活中肯定有很多你要应对的事情，很多你需要做决定的地方，很多你需要找到平衡的地方。那么，在你的列表中，一些最重要的事情是什么？

Oh, it's, that's easy. It's just kids and, you know, my family and freedom. Uh, and freedom means that, uh, it's not just free to say what I want, live in a country where I can speak my mind and have a different opinion. It's freedom of time and freedom of obligation, the freedom to say no to somebody else. And that requires financial independence in my mind, but that's just one part of sort of wealth, uh, to me is not, you know, there's a difference between money and wealth and a lot of people want money. I want wealth and wealth incorporates relationships and it incorporates health and it incorporates, uh, all the things that sort of bring me joy. And that's very different than just money. And so I don't, I don't overly index on the, uh, making a lot of money. I want to do good things with good people and I have a long runway. So I just want to keep doing that.

噢，这很容易。只是孩子，还有你知道的，我的家人和自由。自由意味着我不仅可以自由地说我想说的话，在一个我可以表达观点和持不同意见的国家生活。它意味着有时间的自由和无义务的自由，可以对别人说不。在我看来，这需要财务独立，但这只是财富的一部分。对我来说，财富不仅仅是金钱，还包括人际关系，健康和带给我快乐的所有事物。这与单纯的金钱是非常不同的。所以我不过分关注赚很多钱，我想与好人一起做好事，而且我还有很长的航程，所以我只想继续这样做。

And I think that, uh, one of the advantages for me of not taking outside money or other investors, uh, is that I just don't need, there's no rush. I have a saying, um, that a lack of patience changes the outcome. And I feel like everybody's just in a hurry to do things. And you know, I got another 60 or 70 years of this. If I want to keep going and that's a long runway and I love what I do. And I'm so happy and blessed that I'm able to do it, uh, reasonably successfully. And with really good people, people I want to be friends with people I trust, uh, people I've worked with for a long time. I love working with people for a long time because you have high trust. You can just instantly, like when I get documents from people I've worked with for a long time, I'm not looking for how are they going to screw me over what legal clause do I really need to like focus on here? I'm like, I can just be excited and I can help people and amplify them. And then we can use our platform to help people too. We have 600,000 people sort of reading our weekly newsletter and our podcast reaches hundreds of thousands of people. And I just love being able to, to share some of these experiences with other people. And, um, yeah, it's just really fun. And like I wake up every day and I'm just so happy to go to work and do the things that I want to do. We have a great team here at Farnham Street, like it's really important to me to work with good people and to do things together. And sometimes that means going slower, but I think it means going further in the end.

我认为对我来说，不使用外部资金或其他投资者的一个优势就是我不需要着急。我有一句话，缺乏耐心会改变结果。我觉得每个人都急于做事。我还有60或70年的人生，如果我想继续前进，这是一段很长的时间，而且我喜欢我所做的工作。我很高兴和幸运能够以相对成功的方式做这个工作，并与非常好的人合作，这些人是我想与之做朋友的人，我信任他们，我与他们一起工作已经很长时间了。我喜欢长时间与人合作，因为彼此之间有很高的信任。当我收到与我长时间合作的人的文件时，我不会去寻找他们会怎样坑我，我在这里真正需要关注的法律条款是什么。我只是会感到兴奋，可以帮助别人并支持他们。然后，我们可以利用我们的平台来帮助他人。我们有60万人阅读我们的每周通讯，我们的播客能够触达成千上万的人。我很喜欢能够与其他人分享这些经验。嗯，这真的很有趣。每天早上醒来，我都很高兴去工作并做我想做的事情。我们在弗纳姆街有一个伟大的团队，与好的人一起工作对我来说非常重要，我们一起做事。有时候这意味着进展较慢，但我认为最终意味着能够走得更远。

Is there anything that any sort of practices, whether it be journaling or sort of reviewing, um, kind of, kind of reviewing the big picture, is there anything that comes to mind that kind of keeps you going in that direction that you want to go and making sure you're not straight and too far away?

有没有任何一种实践方法，无论是写日记还是回顾，或是从宏观角度审视，有没有什么能够让你保持朝着自己想要的方向前进，并确保不偏离目标的东西在你的脑海中浮现？

Yeah. I mean, I do an annual review with myself, uh, and I do sort of like a quarterly check in, the quarterly check in, uh, is I'm just asking myself, like, how am I spending my time? And then I look at my calendar because I don't want to just ask myself, and I put a lot of things in my calendar.

是的，我的意思是，我每年都会与自己进行一次审视，而且我也会进行季度检查，这个季度检查实际上就是问自己我是如何利用时间的。然后我会查看我的日历，因为我不仅仅想自问，而且我在日历上安排了很多事情。

So like, am I focused on, I'm saying these things are my priority. And I have this saying, don't, don't tell me your priorities, show me your calendar. And so I have these things in my mind that I say are my priorities. And does that line up with my calendar? And, you know, I said my kids are important to me. So one of the most important things for me is I'm home every day when they get home from school, uh, and they're in high school. Uh, once in high school, one is still in middle school. And a lot of people are like, oh, they can just, they can get their own snack and start their own homework. And I'm like a hundred percent. They can. I don't need to be there. They can watch themselves. They can easily get together a snack. That's not the point of me being there.

所以，我说这些事情是我的首要任务。我有这么一句话，别告诉我你的优先事项，让我看看你的日历。所以我心里有这些我说过是我的优先事项。那能与我的日历相吻合吗？你知道，我说我的孩子对我很重要。所以对我来说，最重要的事情之一是，每天他们放学回家时我都在家，他们上高中了。一个在高中，一个还在中学。很多人说，哦，他们可以自己拿点心然后开始做作业。我百分之百同意。他们确实可以。我没有必要在那里。他们可以自己照顾自己。他们可以很容易地弄到一份点心。但那不是我在那里的重点所在。

The point of me being there is because I want to be there. And if they have a bad day, I want them to be able to talk to me. And if they don't want to talk to me, that's okay. But they know that I'm there. And it's really important for me. They just know that I'm there for them. And I think I've missed like two days in the past couple of years where I haven't been home from school. Uh, and that's happened. And so like, I just think like does what I say that I want line up with what I want or what I'm doing and then do I still want the things that I said I want? And this will all change, right? They move out. I'm going to have a different relationship with them. I don't need to be home at three, three or three anymore. What does that enable me to do that I haven't done before? But until then, man, I just, I don't want to regret this.

我去那里的原因是因为我想在那里。如果他们有一天过得不好，我希望他们能够和我谈话。如果他们不想和我说话，那也没关系。但他们知道我在那里。对我来说这非常重要。他们只需要知道我在他们身边。在过去几年里，我只有两天没有回家从学校回来。这种情况发生过。所以我在想，我说我想要的东西是否与我真正想要的东西一致，以及我是否仍然想要我说过的那些东西？这一切都会改变的，对吧？他们会搬走。我与他们的关系会有所不同。我不再需要在下午三点回家了。那对我来说能够做些什么我之前没有做过的事情呢？但在那之前，老兄，我只是不想后悔。

And I think so often I watched parents when I worked at the intelligence agency and their kids got to these teenagers and then they started parenting sort of less and less. And it's not about parenting because I'm more of a coach now than a parent. Uh, but they just stopped. They're like, Oh, I'm going to work harder. Now is the time to focus on my career. And I just watched how that relationship affected their kids. And all of a sudden it goes from, I'm going to be late getting home to you, eat dinner by yourself to I'm going to show up after dinner. And then all of a sudden it's like, I don't know anything about my kids. I don't have a good relationship with them. And I just don't want to regret all this time. I don't want to be in my, you know, later on in life go, Oh, I wish I could have a do over on that. Cause we don't get a do over on this. And I just think, yeah, I get a lot of joy out of that. I'm quite boring. Actually, I think I can give that a hit.

我经常在情报机构工作时观察父母和他们的孩子成为青少年后的情况，他们在育儿方面逐渐变得越来越少。这不是关于育儿，因为我现在更像是一名教练而不是父母。但他们就是停下来了。他们说：“哦，我要更加努力地工作。现在是专注于我的事业的时候。”我只是观察到这种关系是如何影响他们的孩子的。所有的突然之间，从我要晚点回家变成了你自己吃晚餐，然后突然间变成了晚餐后我才回来。然后突然之间，就像我对我的孩子一无所知。我和他们之间没有良好的关系。我只是不想后悔浪费了所有的时间。我不想在将来某一天说：“哦，我希望我能重来一次。”因为我们不会有机会重新来过。我只是觉得，是的，我从中获得了很多快乐。实际上，我觉得我很无聊，但我认为我可以给那个问题一个解决办法。

I think one of the big takeaways for me to your book is implementing more rules. Um, you, you mentioned the quote, you know, don't tell me your priorities. Show me your calendar. And I think this is certainly something I can work on myself. I'm always willing to, you know, send someone a link to hop on my calendar and chat with me. And, you know, someone kind of has priority over, over my calendar when I send, send them that. And I noticed how some people I happen to see their calendar on their phone. They're pulling up their schedule or whatever. And I see they've got time scheduled for like their workouts or time scheduled for like, they're doing something on their own. They're not like, you know, meeting someone else or putting time on their calendar for themselves.

我认为你的书对我的一个重要启示是要更多地实施规则。嗯，你提到了这句话：“不要告诉我你的优先事项，给我看看你的日程。”我觉得这是我可以自己努力改进的地方。我总是愿意给别人发送一个链接，让他们安排与我交谈的时间。当我发送给他们的时候，他们在我的日历上有一定的优先权。我注意到有些人在手机上查看他们的日程安排，我看到他们安排了时间来做自己的锻炼或者安排了时间来自己做些事情，不是为了与别人见面或者为了自己安排时间。

I think that's a really important role that, um, I think just looking at some people, it's just like seems to be something that works really well. Yeah, totally. I mean, I don't usually book meetings before 12 for that reason. I never want to have to find time to do something important to me. So I just block the time and that's when I do something important to me. And it doesn't matter if I'm walking the kids to school or I'm sleeping in or I'm going for a workout or I'm working on a book or, um, you know, thinking or researching a guest. It's whatever is most important to me. I want to have time built into my schedule to do that. All the other stuff, all these sort of like urgent, responsive tasks. I can do that in the afternoon. And when you do it in the afternoon, you actually tend to be a lot more ruthlessly efficient about them than when you do them in the morning. So they take a lot less time than when in the morning, you know, you're sort of Oh, how's it going? And you know, like what could be a five minute conversation with clay? It turns into like 30 minute conversation with clay. And I've just, you know, I have a, I've wasted 25 minutes in a way. But if I do that conversation in the afternoon, it's like a five minute conversation.

我认为这是一个非常重要的角色，嗯，我认为只要看着一些人，就会觉得这是一件非常有效的事情。是的，完全是这样。为此，我通常不会在12点之前安排会议。我永远不想浪费时间去做对我来说重要的事情。所以我会把时间给堵住，这是我做重要事情的时候。无论是带孩子去学校、睡懒觉、健身、还是写书、思考或者研究嘉宾，都是对我来说最重要的。我希望在我的日程中安排有时间去做这些事情。至于其他的事情，所有这些迫切且需要回应的任务，我可以在下午去做。而且当你在下午做这些事情时，你实际上会对它们更加高效地处理，比起在早上做的时候。所以它们花费的时间要比在早上少得多，你知道，在早上，你可能会花费五分钟和克雷聊聊天，但最后却变成了30分钟的谈话。这样，我就浪费了25分钟。但如果我把这个谈话放在下午进行，那么它只需要五分钟。

And well, now I can do five of those conversations in the same amount of time that I did one, especially when it comes to getting stuff done. I just don't think we're conscious enough about how we spend our time. And that's again, it comes back to you.

嗯，现在我可以在相同的时间内完成五次这样的对话，特别是在执行任务方面。我只是觉得我们在如何利用时间上意识不够。而这又归结到你。

There's a difference between getting what you want and wanting what's worth wanting. And it's really important to think about both of those things. I think another big challenge that people struggle with me included is that there's oftentimes not just one thing we want, you know, we value our health. We value our work career. We value our friends. We value our family.

在得到自己想要的和渴望值得追求的事物之间存在着区别。考虑这两方面非常重要。我认为人们（包括我在内）面临的另一个大挑战是，往往不仅仅追求一样东西，我们也重视健康、事业发展、朋友、家庭。

And it's just sort of this balancing act of constantly balancing, you know, I want to spend more time with these people, but I also want to want to get these other things done as well. Yeah. I don't think in terms of balance, I think that's a really flawed way to think about it for me personally.

这其实是一种持续的平衡行为，我想要花更多的时间与这些人在一起，但同时也希望完成其他事情。嗯，我个人不认为要考虑平衡，因为我觉得这种方式有些缺陷。

And that's not to critique anybody who thinks of it that way. I used to think of it that way, but then I always felt out of balance. And I was like, what is wrong with me? And I realized there's nothing wrong with me. Maybe there's something wrong with thinking of things in balance.

这并不是在批评任何认为如此的人。我以前也是那样想的，但后来我总是感觉不平衡。我就在想，是我有什么问题吗？然后我意识到，我并没有问题。也许把事情视为平衡是有问题的。

I don't need to balance work and my relationship. Think of it as a mosaic and the pieces are all the same. And the pieces can shrink or expand depending on what's going on in your life. If your partner's having a health crisis, you want to be there for them. That's going to be a huge portion of your mosaic, but it can't really eliminate all the other portions.

我不需要在工作和我的感情关系之间取得平衡。把它看作一幅镶嵌画，其中的碎片都是相同的。这些碎片可以根据你生活中发生的事情而缩小或扩大。如果你的伴侣正经历健康危机，你会想要陪伴在他们身边。这将成为你镶嵌画中的一大部分，但它并不能真正排除其他部分。

And so you can never go to zero in any of the pieces, but the pieces sort of like shrink and expand to what's going on in life. Sometimes the kids are going to be more hands on and require more attention and work is going to shrink. Sometimes work, you get a big project or a big book coming out or something like that, it's going to expand.

所以在所有的事情中你永远不能一无所获，但是这些事情会根据生活的变化而收缩和扩展。有时候孩子需要更多的关注和陪伴，工作会减少。而有时候，工作可能会有一个重大的项目或一本重要的书籍即将发布，这时它会扩张。

But I'm not trying to balance these things at all points in time because I'm always failing if I'm trying to balance. And that implies like taking a little bit from here and there. And no, I think of it in terms of shrinking and expanding. And I even talked to the kids about this, which is like, Hey, for the next few months, work is going to be a little bit busier than it normally is.

但我并不是要在任何时刻都要追求这些事情的平衡，因为如果我试图做到平衡，我总是失败的。这意味着从这里抽取一点，再从那里抽取一点。而不，我是把它看作是收缩和扩展。我甚至和孩子们谈过这个问题，就像是，嘿，接下来的几个月工作会比平常更忙一点。

That sort of happens. And it's important that they see that happening, that they know that it'll go back to normal at the end. And it just changes sort of like how you think about things and approach things. But the real question is, what's in my mosaic? What are those pieces?

这种情况有点发生。重要的是，他们能看到这种情况的发生，知道最后一切都会恢复正常。这会改变你对事物的思考方式和处理方式。但真正的问题是，我的马赛克中有什么？那些碎片是什么？

So you get relationship, you have community, you have health, you have work, you have all of these different pieces and you have to determine your own pieces. And what's important to you for some people, it's religion for other people. It's something different. But all of those pieces need to be there for you to live a meaningful life.

所以你拥有了人际关系，社区，健康，工作，以及其他各种不同的要素，你需要确定自己的要素。对于某些人来说，宗教是重要的，而对于其他人来说，重要的是其他事情。但是这些要素都需要存在，让你过上有意义的生活。

And I think that if we don't think about them and what tends to happen when we get busy is we start dropping some of these important things for life in the, and it's not balanced. It's just like, we never think of, Oh, I'm going to skip my workout. Okay. Well, that's fine. You skip it one day. It doesn't matter, but you skip it for weeks. Well, now all of a sudden you're in less health.

我认为，如果我们不去思考这些重要事情以及在变得忙碌时往往会发生的情况，我们就会开始放弃生活中的一些重要事情，这样就会导致不平衡。就像我们从未考虑过，哦，我要跳过我的锻炼。好吧，那没关系，你一个星期跳过一次也无所谓，但如果你连续跳过几个星期，那么你的健康状况就会变差。

If you stop sleeping to get more work done, well, you can do that for a day, but now it's going to affect your relationship and affects your mood. It affects your decision. Has all these downstream effects that we don't think about coming back to positioning. We just put ourselves in a bad position.

如果你停止睡觉来完成更多的工作，好吧，你可以这样做一天，但现在它将影响你的关系和情绪。它会影响你的决策。它会产生一系列我们未曾考虑过的负面效果。我们只是将自己置于了一个不利的位置。

So I never let them all go to zero. And I never want to sort of like, Oh, sleep is so foundational. So it was working out. So it was eating healthy. These are the foundations that have massive downstream effects on not only my decision making, but my happiness. And so I want to make sure I get those right and I get them right nine times out of 10.

所以我从不让它们全部归零。而且我绝不想像这样，哦，睡眠是如此基础。所以我一直在锻炼身体，保持健康的饮食习惯。这些是对我决策和幸福感产生巨大影响的基础因素。所以我希望确保我能够把它们做对，并且成功率达到九次成功出十次。

I don't have to be perfect with them, but I want to be really good with them. As if having this newsletter blog and podcast wasn't enough, you're also, you know, you also run a holding company where you go out and you're open to purchasing great businesses or wonderful businesses, whatever you want to call them.

我不必与他们完美无缺，但我希望能够与他们真正地很好相处。仿佛拥有这个通讯、博客和播客还不够，你还经营着一个控股公司，你会主动寻找并购买优秀的企业或出色的企业，无论你如何称呼它们。

So how does this sort of fit in to what matters for you? I want to work with great people who are doing amazing things and want a really good partner. And so I set up Cyrus as just a holding company to partner with great businesses for a long period of time.

这与你的关注点如何相契合呢？我希望与那些做出了惊人成就并且希望有一个非常好的合作伙伴的伟大人才一起工作。因此，我成立了Cyrus作为一个持有公司，与优秀的企业长期合作。

I never want to nex it. So if we write a check, I'm never, you know, there's no LPs that we're not concerned about when we get our money back. We just want to partner with businesses that have a long runway with people we trust and respect and admire and people who are fanatical about what they're doing, whether that's we're on the cap table as a minority investor, or we purchase the entire business from them and partner with them or, you know, we haven't done a replacement or anything yet of a CEO, but like, we're just really looking for good opportunities of people who have a long runway, passionate about what they do, fanatical about what they do and just, yeah.

我绝对不想扯皮。所以如果我们开支票，我就不会有任何顾虑，当我们拿回我们的钱时。我们只希望与那些有着可信任、尊重和钦佩的人，以及对自己所做的事情狂热的企业合作。不管我们是作为少数投资者在股权表中，还是全盘接管他们的企业，并与他们合作，或者我们还没有替换过首席执行官，但是我们只是在寻找那些有着长期发展前景，对自己的事业充满激情、狂热的人们的良机。

And then also looking into your background, you're a board member of Tiny, which went public this year through its merger with WeCommerce. And I found this to be quite interesting because we interviewed Andrew Wilkinson earlier this year. And it seems to be, you know, it seems somewhat counterintuitive where you have this holding company with Cyrus and then you're on the board of Tiny. So how does that sort of interplay and what led you to being on their board? Yeah, that's a good question. So we bought a company called Pixel Union a long time ago. I think it was like, I'm going to guess 2017, 2018. And Andrew had started that company in earlier and sold it to private equity. And then a group of investors, including Bill Ackman and Howard Marks and myself and Andrew, we bought that company back and then we took it public during COVID and during, we did a reverse takeover on the Toronto Stock Exchange. And I became a board member at that point in time. The company changed the same from Pixel Union to e-commerce. And then in January of this year, we commerce subsequently purchased, I guess, Tiny, which was bigger than we were. And so now we have Tiny, which is this huge sort of holding company run by Andrew Wilkinson and Chris Sparling. And Cyrus is sort of a different entity, right? Cyrus is private and not public and so not exposed to sort of some of that stuff. Or those pressures and different in the way that I control Cyrus and I don't sort of control Tiny. I'm just on the board and trying to do the best I can and help us make the best decisions possible going into the future.

然后我发现你还是Tiny的董事会成员，该公司今年通过与WeCommerce的合并上市。我发现这相当有趣，因为我们今年早些时候曾采访过Andrew Wilkinson。这似乎有点违反直觉，你在Cyrus拥有公司且同时又在Tiny的董事会上任职。那么它们之间是如何相互影响的，又是什么使你加入了他们的董事会呢？是的，这是一个很好的问题。我们很久以前买下了一家叫Pixel Union的公司。我记得大约是在2017年或2018年。Andrew在更早的时候创办了这家公司，然后卖给了私募股权。然后，包括Bill Ackman、Howard Marks、我和Andrew在内的一群投资者，将这家公司重新买回，并在COVID期间通过多伦多证券交易所的逆向收购将其上市。从那时起我成为了董事会成员。公司将名称从Pixel Union改为e-commerce。然后在今年的1月，WeCommerce随后收购了Tiny，而Tiny比我们规模更大。现在我们有了Tiny，这是一家由Andrew Wilkinson和Chris Sparling管理的庞大控股公司。而Cyrus是一个不同的实体，是私有的而非上市的，因此不会受到一些公开公司所面临的压力和影响。在Cyrus中，我拥有控制权，而在Tiny中，我只是在董事会上，并尽力提供帮助，使我们能够做出最佳决策，并努力朝着更好的未来发展。

Awesome. Well, Shane, this is going to be a conversation I'll look back on and probably listen back to a few times and I'm excited to have this one go out. It's quite an honor having you on the show. Before we close it out, I want to give you a hand off to where the audience can learn more about you and pick up the book. I appreciate that. So if you just go to any bookstore, you should be able to get it. It's called Clear Thinking, Turning Ordinary Moments into extraordinary outcomes. You can find out more, get a free chapter at FS.blog. Or you can Google Shane Parrish or listen to the Knowledge Project. There's lots of ways to find me. But I'd love to hear from you. One of the things that I've really enjoyed when I sent out books to friends for prereading before it came out was they would take a picture of a page or send me back just a note with the subject line saying this page really impacted me. So if you want to send me an email at Shane at FS.blog, I'll read everything. I don't promise to reply. But tell me what page really impacted you and change your mind about something. I'd love to know. Wonderful. I can attest that there's a lot of pages that'll definitely make you think. So thanks again, Shane. This is great. Thanks a lot.

非常棒。嗯，Shane，这个对话我将回顾几次，可能还会多次听。能让你参加节目真是非常荣幸。在我们结束之前，我想通过给你个机会告诉听众如何更多了解你并购买这本书。非常感谢。你只需要去任何一家书店，应该就能买到。书名叫做《清晰思考，将平凡时刻变为非凡成果》。你还可以在FS.blog获取免费一章内容，或者通过谷歌搜索Shane Parrish，或者听Knowledge Project节目，有很多途径可以找到我。但我很想听听你们的反馈。我真的很享受在书出版前将书送给朋友们预读时，他们会拍张书页照片或者简单回复一句话，主题是这个页面真的让我受到了影响。所以如果你想给我发电子邮件，地址是Shane@FS.blog，我会全部阅读。但不能保证答复。告诉我哪一页影响了你，改变了你对某些事物的看法。我很想知道。太好了。我可以证明的是，有很多页会让你思考。再次感谢，Shane。太好了，非常感谢。

What drives long-term returns, I think it helps just to get down to the really basic stuff. So a business, you can think of it as a pile of capital and what rate can increase that capital over the next 10 years? I mean, that's the fundamentals of drive returns. So it's some kind of return on invested capital plus growth rate over time. That really drives returns. What return you may get is also a function of price that you pay. So in those three things, you have everything. And mathematically, you know, it can't work out any other way. One of those three things has to lead to returns.

长期回报的驱动因素，我认为重要的是回归到非常基础的内容。所以一个企业，你可以把它看作一堆资本，什么样的增长率能在未来10年增加这份资本呢？我的意思是，这就是驱动回报的基本原理。所以，这涉及到投资资本的回报率以及随着时间推移的增长率。这真正驱动回报。你可能获得的回报也与你所支付的价格有关。因此在这三个方面，你就是拥有了一切。从数学上来说，也没有其他的可能。这三个因素中的一个必定导致回报。