Cybertruck: Here We Go, Again ⚡️
发布时间 2023-12-01 20:52:22 来源
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Now, before I get into this, I need to make one thing clear. No matter what anybody is saying now, and no matter what the internet will say about the Cybertruck in the months ahead, Tesla is going to sell as many Cybertrucks as they can make for the next three years at the very least. By that time, a lot is going to be different with the Cybertruck.
在我开始之前，我需要明确一件事。无论现在有人在说什么，也无论互联网在未来几个月对Cybertruck的看法如何，特斯拉至少在接下来的三年内会卖出他们能生产出来的所有Cybertruck。到那个时候，Cybertruck会有很多不同之处。
In case anybody has forgotten, Tesla never stands still. Let's rip the Band-Aid off and talk about the pricing. I know many are disappointed. This group is split into two. Those disappointed because they can't afford the truck now and those that think Tesla has failed.
如果有人忘记了，特斯拉从不停滞不前。让我们直言不讳地谈谈价格问题。我知道许多人感到失望。这个群体分为两部分。一部分人因为现在买不起卡车而感到失望，另一部分人则认为特斯拉失败了。
To the former, I can't really help you. To the latter, I have a few thoughts. Number 1. When demand is this high relative to supply, Tesla would be foolish to not charge prices commensurate with that situation. Over time, Tesla can and will drive down prices as they achieve better economies of scale and the supply-demand balance well comes back into balance.
对于前者，我无法真正帮助你。对于后者，我有几个想法。第一，当需求相对供应如此之高时，特斯拉如果不调整价格以符合这种情况，那是愚蠢的。随着时间的推移，特斯拉可以并且将会通过实现更好的规模经济和供需平衡的回归来降低价格。
Tesla should absolutely let the early adopters pay the premium pricing they are still going to pay, gladly or reluctantly, it doesn't matter. Don't forget, the all-wheel-drive variant is under $80,000 so it does qualify for the IRA tax credit that will be point of sale in January. These tax credits, by the way, did not exist back in 2019. Tesla is simply playing its current hand the best way it can.
特斯拉绝对应该让那些早期用户支付他们仍然会乐意或不情愿支付的溢价价格，这并不重要。别忘了，四轮驱动版本的价格不到80,000美元，因此它符合一月份销售时的IRA税收抵免资格。顺便提一句，这些税收抵免在2019年并不存在。特斯拉只是以最好的方式运用当前的资源。
The problem with using an inflation adjustment calculator is that they use the reported on figure. They know that real-world inflation is much higher than what they're reporting. Looking at the all-wheel drive Cybertruck at $79.9000, subtracting the $7,500 tax credit brings us to $72,490. At the unveil event, Tesla was estimating, not promising by the way, $49,990 for the dual motor all-wheel drive. Doing simple, straight-line math, that works out to 11% inflation per year, probably right in line with the real-world supply chain inflation costs.
使用通货膨胀调整计算器的问题在于它们使用的是报告上的数据。它们知道真实世界的通货膨胀要比他们报告的数据高得多。以79,900美元的全轮驱动Cybertruck为例，减去7500美元的税收抵免后我们得到了72,490美元。在发布会上，特斯拉预计（顺便说一句，并非承诺）双电机全轮驱动售价为49,990美元。简单的直线计算可以得出每年11%的通货膨胀率，这可能与真实世界的供应链通货膨胀成本相符。
My point here, Tesla is not that far off from its pricing guesstimates and to think Tesla has failed somehow is silly and disregards the rest of the content of this episode. Plus, if you look at the average transaction price of a full-size pickup in the US in October, it was $66,000.
我的观点是，特斯拉的定价估算并没有差得太远。认为特斯拉在某种程度上失败是愚蠢的，并且忽视了本集其他内容。此外，如果你看一下美国十月份全尺寸皮卡的平均交易价格，是66000美元。
The reality now is that the all-wheel drive Cybertruck gets a tax credit and can have up to 470 miles of range with a range extender. Had Tesla just jammed more batteries into the base pack, it would not have qualified for the credits. One last thing, Tesla is using 4680s for the Cybertruck which are continually improving and scaling in their own right. As these sales become more energy-dense, Tesla will incrementally improve the range of the Cybertruck while also driving the price down.
现实情况是，全轮驱动的Cybertruck可以获得税收抵免，并且通过使用增程器，续航里程可达470英里。如果特斯拉只是简单地将更多电池装入基础电池组，那么它就无法符合税收抵免的条件。另外，特斯拉在Cybertruck中使用了不断改进和扩大规模的4680电池。随着这些销售变得更加能量密集，特斯拉将逐步提高Cybertruck的续航里程，并降低价格。
I'm really glad Tesla was able to implement the steer by wire which will be an awesome feature overlooked by most. This was much harder to pull off than you may think. This is not something that's done all the time, it's actually done in mass market cars very infrequently, like almost never. But no worries, Tesla will do it safely, there are redundancies so it'll be failproof or NHTSA would not have allowed it. But from a user perspective, the locking ratio will be much smaller so no hand-over-hand turning. It'll adjust dynamically based on your speed and it'll have a very tight turn radius, tighter than the Model S. With no mechanical linkage between the driver and the wheels, you know what they say, the best part is no part. Long term, hopefully this reduces manufacturing complexity.
我非常高兴特斯拉能够实现"电子转向"，这将是一个令人惊叹的特性，但大多数人都忽视了它。这比你想象的要困难得多。这并不是一种经常实施的技术，在大众市场的汽车中几乎没有使用过。但别担心，特斯拉将以安全的方式进行，它具备冗余设计，因此不会失效，否则国家公路交通安全管理局是不会允许的。而从用户角度来看，转向系数将更小，不再需要"交叉交换转向"。它会根据你的速度动态调整，并拥有非常小的转弯半径，比Model S更小。车手和车轮之间没有机械链接，你知道，人们常说，最好的部分就是没有部分。从长远来看，希望这将减少制造复杂性。
On the event, my initial reaction was the same as yours, we want more information. Show us some features, show us the interior, show off the new 18.5 inch display with the Cybertruck UI, even the little stuff like the drain plug in the hidden vault storage or the bottle opener on the side of the vault bed, or that the buttons on the steering wheel are actual buttons that click and move, not the haptic simulation like in the past.
在这个事件上，我的初步反应与你的一样，我们希望获取更多信息。给我们展示一些特点，展示一下内部，展示一下搭载Cybertruck UI的全新18.5英寸显示屏，甚至一些小细节，比如隐藏式车厢储存区的排水塞或车厢床侧面的瓶盖开启器，还有方向盘上的按钮是实际的按钮，可以点击和移动，而不是过去的触觉模拟。
Why didn't they show the storage functionality of the back row? I just wanted them to take some time to explain the engineering genius of the vehicle and all of the new technology that's packed into this truck. How about explaining how orders are going to work?
为什么他们没有展示后排储物功能呢？我只是希望他们花一些时间解释一下这辆车的工程才华以及内置的所有新技术。能不能解释一下订单是如何进行的呢？
And yes, the truth is Tesla does not need any more demand right now, they have plenty so overselling is not needed. I also know that this way the internet will have plenty of things to dive into and research and keep searching for which will keep interest higher for longer. But just to appease the Tesla fans, everybody that traveled to be there, to show off the talent of the engineers and the team, I think the event should have been more in depth with a bit more preparation.
是的，事实上，特斯拉现在不需要更多的需求，他们已经有很多了，所以不需要过分销售。我也知道这样做会让互联网有很多东西可以深入研究和搜索，从而保持更长时间的兴趣。但是为了取悦特斯拉的粉丝，那些前来参加活动展示工程师和团队才华的人，我认为这个事件应该更加深入，准备得更充分一些。
There were some awesome parts like the Cybertruck beating in Porsche 911 and the Drag Race while the Cybertruck towed a Porsche 911, but there was just so much that Tesla decided to keep under wraps or not mentioned. I have to say it, the baseball throw was a cringe moment for me for sure, I would have been fine with them skipping that altogether. That's just more fodder for the media to take and run with.
有一些令人惊叹的部分，比如Cybertruck在Drag Race比赛中击败保时捷911，还有Cybertruck拖行保时捷911的场景，但特斯拉决定保密了很多细节或者没有提及。我必须说，棒球投掷那一刻让我感到尴尬，如果他们干脆不提这个就好了。这只会给媒体提供更多话题。
Ultimately though, I just want more of the general public to learn about and appreciate the masterclass Tesla is putting on from an engineering and tech perspective, it's incredible and most people don't know anything about it. I mean, Tesla literally did not even mention the new power share at the event, so Tesla has now appeased those asking for bidirectional charging, home backup, using tools on the job site, charging other EVs. Now if you don't have a power wall, you will need the universal wall connector, the gateway and an optional backup switch which all will be sold separately. And this will work out to be even more incentive for somebody to buy a power wall.
最终，我只希望更多的公众能够了解和欣赏特斯拉在工程和技术方面所展示的杰出表现，这真是令人难以置信，大多数人对此一无所知。我的意思是，特斯拉甚至在活动上都没有提及新的电能共享功能，所以现在特斯拉满足了那些要求双向充电、家庭备用、工地上使用工具、给其他电动汽车充电的人们的需求。现在如果您没有电池储能系统，您将需要购买通用壁式充电器、网关以及一个可选备用开关，它们将分别出售。这将进一步激励有意购买电池储能系统的人们。
There's also some interesting deep in the weed speculation out there that the actuators being used to steer the wheels may be the same as the optimus actuators, so there could already be some manufacturing crossover. The less skews Tesla has company wide, the better.
还有一些有趣的关于扭矩转向装置的深度推测，认为可能与优独立扭矩转向装置相同，这意味着它们可能已经在制造过程中发生了交叉。特斯拉公司全体员工对此越少知情越好。
On the range let down, I'll be honest, I was expecting the top of the range without an extender to be a minimum of around 450 miles. And I know that it is with the range extender but without it, the top of the range right now is 340 miles. This is certainly more than enough for most use cases and the people that drive around 40 miles per day on average. The truth is though, having extra range is desired if not required in three scenarios, towing, cold weather and road trips. Those may not happen all the time but then questions arise about the range extender and the practicality for when they do. How removable is it?
在射程方面，我得诚实地说，我本以为没有延长器的情况下，最低的射程会达到450英里左右。而我知道有了延长器，射程确实可以达到这个水平，但没有延长器的情况下，目前的射程最长只有340英里。对于大多数使用情况和平均每天行驶约40英里的人来说，这当然已经足够了。但实际上，有些情况下需要或期望能拥有更多的射程，比如牵引、寒冷天气和长途旅行。这些情况可能不会经常发生，但是就会涉及到延长器的问题以及其在需要时是否实用。它有多容易拆卸呢？
For now it sounds like it's going to be installed by a service center, implying it takes a little know how. Given that it's a 50kWh pack and the entire truck pack is 123kWh so we've been told it might be higher, I'm guessing it won't be light and something that my wife can quickly detach and set in the garage. Drew Baglino did say it's the size of a toolbox but this image leads me to believe Ashley would be struggling to remove or install this. We don't know the exact cost but the word is it could be around $16,000 to add 120 to 130 miles of range to the base configurations.
暂时来看，听起来它将由服务中心安装，暗示需要一些专业知识。考虑到它是50千瓦时的电池组，而整个卡车电池组是123千瓦时，所以我们被告知它可能会更重一些，我猜它不会很轻，也不会是我妻子可以轻松拆卸和放置在车库里的东西。Drew Baglino确实说过它和工具箱的大小差不多，但这个形象让我相信Ashley在拆卸或安装时可能会很吃力。我们不知道确切的成本，但有消息称，为基础配置增加120到130英里的续航里程可能需要大约16,000美元。
Even in the cold though, Tesla's thermal management system has been head and shoulders above the rest and I'm assuming the same will be true with the Cybertruck. Let's not forget, Tesla could have stuffed more cells into the Cybertruck for longer range but using 4680's Tesla is going to use the market data it has to provide the range it thinks most people will be pleased with while balancing the need to conserve cells as Tesla continues to improve the energy density and production rate of the 4680 lines.
尽管寒冷的天气，特斯拉的热管理系统在技术上遥遥领先于其他竞争对手，我相信塞博卡车也将如此。我们不要忘记，特斯拉本可以将更多电池装入塞博卡车以获得更长的续航里程，但是特斯拉决定使用4680新型电池。它将根据市场数据提供一种他们认为大多数人会满意的续航里程，同时在保持电池耐久性的前提下提高能量密度和生产速度，不断改进4680电池产线。
Quickly from a Tesla stock perspective, this probably won't be too impactful until late 2025 or 2026. If we assume 350,000 deliveries in 2026 with an average sale price of $85,000 at 30% margins factoring in FSD and accessories, that's $29.8 billion in revenue or about $9 billion in profits. If you then divide that by the diluted shares outstanding, that's $2.61 in earnings per share for 2026. Marginally, for context, Tesla's trailing 12 month earnings per share has been $3.11 so an extra $2.61 is certainly not trivial.
从特斯拉的股票角度来看，这可能直到2025年底或2026年才会产生太大影响。如果我们假设2026年交付量为35万辆，平均销售价格为8.5万美元，考虑到全自动驾驶和配件的30%利润率，那么收入将达到298亿美元，利润约为90亿美元。如果再将这个数值除以已发行的稀释后的股票，2026年每股盈利将达到2.61美元。在此提供背景信息，特斯拉过去12个月的每股盈利为3.11美元，因此额外的2.61美元肯定不是微不足道的。
Back to the manufacturing prowess here though, Monroe Live nerding out on this truck is going to be epic. If you're new to the channel, I don't think I've ever said that term in the history of the channel. Those of you that have been around, let me know. There are some new motors in the Cybertruck that have not been seen in other Tesla vehicles that we'll learn about in time with a host of other manufacturing genius moves that I'll trickle out in the months ahead.
回到制造实力这一点上，蒙罗现场为这辆卡车狂热的程度将是史诗级的。如果你是新来的观众，我想我在我有史以来的视频中从未说过这个术语。那些一直关注的人，请告诉我。Cybertruck中有一些在其他特斯拉车型中从未见过的新发动机，随着时间的推移，我们将了解到更多有关制造业的天才动作，我将在未来几个月逐渐透露出来。
On the safety front, John from Dr. Know et al. said he talked to a Tesla engineer and their crash simulation was a perfect one for one of what actually happened in the real-world test. AKA, Tesla's simulators knew exactly how the Cybertruck would respond to that crash test, which is wild. Jason Camisa, a world-renowned car guru, just said quote, this is a 3100 pound cart and it just hit the Cybertruck at 33.5 miles per hour and the Cybertruck is barely deformed. It didn't even break the doorglass after a crash test that totals most cars. The Cybertruck would be back on the road with two new doors, airbags and some trim.
在安全方面，《知情博士》的约翰表示，他曾与特斯拉的工程师交流，他们的碰撞模拟完美地再现了实际测试中发生的情况。换句话说，特斯拉的模拟器完全知道Cybertruck在撞击测试中会如何反应，这太令人惊讶了。全球知名汽车专家杰森·卡米莎刚才说，这是一辆重3100磅的车，以每小时33.5英里的速度撞击Cybertruck，结果Cybertruck几乎没有变形。甚至在这种对大多数车辆来说是致命的碰撞测试后，它的车窗甚至都没有破碎。只需更换两个新车门、气囊和一些装饰件，Cybertruck就能重新上路了。
Real quick, if you guys want to support a community member, I'll have the shows linked below. He puts in all kinds of TLC to these Cybertruck wood burnings in Slovakia. This is not a sponsor, nothing like that, just a friend of the channel.
如果你们想支持这个社区成员，我将在下面提供相关节目的链接。他在斯洛伐克为这些Cybertruck木烧制品投入了各种细心呵护。这并不是赞助商或者类似的关系，只是频道上的一个朋友。
Speaking of a production of sorts, the word from the factory tours is there's a significant amount of automation on the Cybertruck line. These are not being hand-built as TeslaQ would have you believe, so this is great to hear for future prospects. We still need to keep expectations and check for the production ramp volume, but the more automation, the better. And yes, I know you can over automate as Tesla has already learned that lesson back with the Model 3. But let's not forget that originally part of the design of the Cybertruck was so that manufacturing in the long run would be easier.
说到某种生产活动，工厂参观的消息是Cybertruck生产线上有大量的自动化设备。这些不是像TeslaQ所说的那样手工制造的，所以这对未来前景来说是好消息。我们仍然需要保持对产量的期望并进行检验，但是自动化程度越高越好。是的，我知道特斯拉已经从Model 3中学到了自动化过度的教训。但是我们也不要忘记，Cybertruck最初的设计之一就是为了在长远看来更容易进行制造。
I have to at least mention Cybertruck 4 police fleets. Larry Ellison has already talked about his plans for one, so there's a chance that over time, the Cybertruck becomes a more popular vehicle for police fleets than the Model Y. Now that the Cybertruck is confirmed to be over £6,000, with a passenger vehicle over that £6,000 mark for business purposes, you can accelerate the depreciation. Not financial advice, talk to a CPA, but for business owners, this will be nice.
我至少要提到Cybertruck 4警车舰队。拉里·埃里森已经谈到了他的计划，所以有机会随着时间推移，Cybertruck会成为比Model Y更受欢迎的警车舰队车辆。现在，Cybertruck已经确认超过6,000英镑，对于商务用途超过这个6,000英镑标准的乘用车，您可以加速折旧。这不是财务建议，请咨询注册会计师，但对于企业主来说，这将是好事。
We still have plenty of questions, how will the original reservations be handled? Will Tesla Honor that original $7,000 FSD price? Then will the new reservations be ready for actual configuration? What are the delivery timelines for the next few weeks? Are accessories ready to be shipped? For the first time ever, we get a front camera on a Tesla. How is that going to help with the vision-based parking? MKBHD did say the rear window into the vault does not open or close, so does that mean that we can't heat the vault and sleep there with the tent? How will the 800 volt architecture interface with Tesla's V3 Superchargers? V2 and V3 are capped at 500 volts and even V4 dispensers are still hooked up to V3 cabinets.
我们还有很多问题，原来的预订将如何处理？特斯拉会遵守原来的7000美元的FSD价格吗？接下来的预订又准备好进行实际配置了吗？未来几周的交付时间表是什么样的？配件准备好发货了吗？特斯拉首次在前置摄像头上使用了摄像头，这对基于视觉的停车有什么帮助？MKBHD确实说过后备箱的后窗不开不闭，那是否意味着我们不能加热后备箱并在帐篷里睡觉？800伏特的架构将如何与特斯拉的V3超级充电桩相连？V2和V3的电压上限为500伏特，即使是V4的分配器仍然接入V3机柜。
Now I know Drew did give some insight into this saying that the pack splits into two to charge natively on existing 400 volt charging infrastructure, no costly, lossy booster required. But we still need to learn about the charging curve of the Cybertruck. And how about the engineering feat of moving the low voltage architecture to 48 volts? You can accurately describe this move as ground breaking. For decades now, the auto industry has operated on 12 volts, but no longer at least for Tesla. This will absolutely save Tesla money in the long run once they establish the new supply base.
现在我知道Drew确实对此提供了一些见解，他说这款电池组可以分成两部分在现有的400伏充电基础设施上进行本地充电，无需昂贵、损耗大的升压器。但我们仍然需要了解Cybertruck的充电曲线。还有把低压架构迁移到48伏的工程壮举如何？你可以准确地描述这一举措是突破性的。几十年来，汽车行业一直在使用12伏电，但对特斯拉来说，现在已经不再如此。一旦他们建立起新的供应基地，这无疑会为特斯拉节省大量资金。
I really just wanted to provide some initial thoughts in this video and I have to say, even the people that think this truck is ugly will indirectly help Tesla with marketing. The design evokes emotions. It's unlike anything we've ever seen. It's going to be a conversation starter, a head turner, and how polarizing it is will lead to more people being exposed to Tesla. Plenty of people can hate it. Tesla only needs a few hundred thousand every year to love it, and they will. Just pay attention to the views and engagement of all of these videos and posts about the Cybertruck and what they're going to get in the months ahead. The interest in this truck is off the charts, and we know the truck will continually get better. This is just version one.
我只是想在这个视频里提供一些初步的想法，而我必须说，即使那些认为这辆卡车丑陋的人，也将间接地帮助特斯拉进行营销。它的设计引发了情感反应。这不同于我们以往见过的任何东西。它将成为一个引发对话的起点，一个吸引眼球的存在，而它的极端分化将使更多人接触到特斯拉。很多人可能会讨厌它。特斯拉每年只需要几十万人热爱它，而他们会热爱。只要留意下这些关于Cybertruck的视频和帖子的观看次数和互动情况，以及接下来几个月内可能出现的情况。对这辆卡车的兴趣已经飙升，而且我们知道，它将不断变得更好。这只是第一版而已。
When you zoom out and compare everything about this truck, the utility, performance, features, technology, durability, safety, and things like the IT factor, this could very well prove to be the best truck ever built. There really is so much new technology in this truck that it just cannot be fully appreciated in a few hours or even a few days or weeks. It'll take time for the reality of what this truck is and what it can do to set into the market and we still have a lot of these new features that we need to learn more about.
当你放大视角，比较这辆卡车的每一个方面，包括实用性、性能、功能、技术、耐久性、安全性，还有类似“吸引力”的东西，这可能被证明是有史以来最好的卡车。这辆卡车中有太多新技术，仅靠几个小时、甚至几天甚至几周是无法完全欣赏到的。需要时间才能让这辆卡车的真正实力和能力在市场上得到认同，而且我们仍然有很多这些新功能需要进一步了解。
There's undoubtedly going to be a lot of news about Tesla's failure to hit promises from four years ago and the media trying to paint the Cybertruck in a negative light compared to other trucks. Like always though, it's just going to end up being noise. Think about how much Tesla's other vehicles have improved since their launch. The same thing is going to happen with the Cybertruck.
毫无疑问，关于特斯拉未能实现四年前的承诺以及媒体试图将Cybertruck与其他卡车相比进行负面报道的新闻一定会很多。但和往常一样，这只是噪音而已。想想特斯拉其他车型自发布以来所取得的改进吧。Cybertruck也将会有同样的进步。
You know, growing up I was never a car guy, definitely never a truck guy. But here we are and I'm spending inordinate amounts of time covering Tesla and the Cybertruck. In part, that's because I love the tech, I love the risk taking, I love how they're pushing the boundaries of what's possible and you know what they say, the future isn't going to invent itself.
你知道的，我从小就不是个迷车的人，绝对不是卡车迷。但现在我们正花费大量的时间关注特斯拉和Cybertruck。一部分原因是因为我喜欢这项技术，喜欢这种冒险精神，喜欢他们在挑战可能性的界限。你知道，他们说得没错，未来不会自己创造出来。
The Cybertruck won't be for everyone but just remember, it doesn't have to be. It's an engineering masterpiece that will be desired by many. In the future we'll cover this a lot more in depth but for now, to anybody that says Tesla should never have created a Cybertruck implying the world would be better without it, you can go.
特斯拉Cybertruck并非人人都会喜欢，但请记住，它也无需如此。这是一款被许多人渴望的工程杰作。将来我们会详细介绍它的更多细节，但现在，对于任何声称特斯拉不应该创造Cybertruck，并暗示没有它世界会更好的人，我们无需理会。