Markets Weekly November 18, 2023
发布时间 2023-11-19 05:09:15 来源
摘要
Soft landing continues Market surges on "Fed pivot" but does it make sense? ICBC Treasury fails are nbd 00:00 - Intro 1:13 ...
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中英文字稿 
Hello, my friends. Today is November 18th, and this is Markets Weekly. This week, we're going to talk about three things. First, we have to talk about the very positive inflation data we got the past week, where CPI and PPI data continue to show steady progress on the inflation front. At the same time, the economic data show only modest levels of cooling. We have been and continue to be in soft landing world.
你好，我的朋友们。今天是11月18日，这是"一周市场"节目。本周，我们要谈论三个主题。首先，我们必须说说上周获得的非常积极的通货膨胀数据，其中CPI和PPI的数据继续显示通货膨胀前端的稳步进展。与此同时，经济数据仅显示了适度的冷却水平。我们已经处于，并继续处于温和衰退的世界。
Secondly, and related to that, the markets saw the soft landing data and began to surge higher. Because the market began to price in sooner than expected Fed rate cuts, they are pricing in a quote unquote Fed pivot. Let's talk about whether or not that makes sense.
其次，与之相关的是，市场看到了“软着陆”的数据，开始涌向更高的方向。因为市场开始更早地预期到美联储的降息，他们开始预计所谓的美联储转向。我们来谈谈这是否有道理。
And lastly, I want to talk a little bit about the ICBC rents in where I attacked last week. So ICBC was subject to a cyber attack, and it seems like that led to more than usual treasury fails. Now, many people were concerned about this, but let me tell you why that's nothing that's not something that you should be worried about.
最后，我想稍微谈谈一下我上周攻击过的中国工商银行（ICBC）的租金问题。工商银行遭受了一次网络攻击，似乎导致了比平常多的财政失败。许多人对此感到担忧，但是我要告诉你们，这并不是你们应该担心的事情。
OK, first, starting with the soft landing data. Now, before we began, let's level set a little bit. Last year, inflation was high, and the Fed began to aggressively raise interest rates. The thinking was that with interest rates going up a lot, the economy would fall into a recession, unemployment would rise, and inflation would come down. A soft landing scenario, of course, would be inflation coming down without the economy going into a recession. That's what the Fed wanted to achieve, and many, many people doubted that was possible.
好的，首先，我们从软着陆数据开始。现在，在我们开始之前，让我们稍微设定一下背景。去年，通货膨胀率高，联储开始大幅度提高利率。人们认为随着利率的大幅上升，经济会陷入衰退，失业率会上升，通货膨胀率会下降。当然，软着陆的情境是通胀率下降但经济并未进入衰退，这是联储希望达到的目标，但很多人对此表示怀疑。
With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that inflation did steadily trend down this past year but at the same time, the economy continues to grow above trend. We have been living in soft landing. The data we got the past week shows that we still are in soft landing.
从回顾的角度来看，我们可以看到，在过去的一年里，通货膨胀确实稳步下降，但与此同时，经济仍在趋势以上增长。我们一直生活在“软着陆”状态。过去一周我们收到的数据显示，我们仍处于“软着陆”的状态。
So on the CPI data front, it was softer than expected. CPI on a month-over-month basis was actually zero. On an annualized basis, you can see that although headline and core CPI continue to be above the Fed's 2% target, it's steadily trending lower. There's no question about that.
所以在CPI数据方面，情况实际上比预期要软。 从月度基础来看，CPI实际上是零。 从年化基础来看，你可以看到虽然总体和核心CPI仍然高于美联储的2%目标，但它正在稳步下降。 这一点毫无疑问。
Looking at PPI, which are producer prices, basically the prices of businesses pay, you come up with a similar graph. So PPI prices have been steadily declining on an annualized basis. So we look at PPI because in theory, let's say that businesses are facing higher prices, they could turn around and try to pass the cost off to consumers by raising consumer prices. This is not necessarily true. Businesses could of course have narrow margins. It all depends on the supply and demand dynamics in that particular industry. So again, data shows that inflation is steadily coming down. Now, it might not get all the way to 2%. In fact, I don't think that it will, but so far, it continues to trend lower and we'll see where the direction goes in the coming months.
当我们观察PPI（生产者价格指数），也就是企业支付的价格时，会得出一个类似的图形。所以，从年化的角度看，PPI价格一直在稳步下降。我们之所以关注PPI，是因为理论上，如果企业面临价格上涨，他们可能会转身试图通过提高消费者价格来将成本转嫁给消费者。但这并不一定是真的，企业的利润空间可能会较窄，这完全取决于该特定行业的供求关系。所以，再次说明，数据显示通货膨胀率正在稳步下降。现在，可能不会一直下降到2%。事实上，我认为它不会，但是到目前为止，它仍然呈现下降趋势，我们将看到接下来几个月的走势如何。
Now, at the same time, the past week, we also got some economic data. We got retail sales, which were just slightly slightly negative on a month or a month basis, suggesting some degree of cooling. But at the same time, I think it's worth noting that retail sales data for the past month was revised higher. So the economy continues to chug along and it is cooling. And this is something that's also mirrored in the labor market data as well.
现在，同时，在过去的一周，我们也收到了一些经济数据。我们得到了零售销售数据，这些数据在月对月的基础上略微负面，暗示了一定程度的冷却。但同时，我认为值得注意的是，上个月的零售销售数据已被修正为增长。因此，经济仍在持续增长，但它正在逐步冷却。这也同样反应在劳动市场数据中。
So people have been watching very closely weekly unemployment claims data. So every Thursday that comes out and the thinking is that when the labor market breaks, if it breaks, you'll see a gradual increase in unemployment claims. And we did see a tick up in unemployment claims the past week. But again, if you zoom out a bit, you'll see that the levels continue to be very low. The labor market looks strong, but it is cooling like the rest of the economy. We still are in soft landing world, it seems.
所以人们一直都在密切关注每周的失业救济申请数据。每周四这些数据都会公布出来，人们普遍认为，当劳动力市场出现问题，或者说如果出现问题，你会看到失业救济申请逐渐增加。我们确实在过去的一周看到了失业救济申请的小幅上升。但再拉开视角看，你会发现这个水平依然非常低。劳动力市场看起来还是很强劲的，不过像整个经济一样，它正在逐渐降温。看起来似乎我们仍处在“软着陆”的阶段。
Now things could change. We could, things could take a bad term in the next few months. I don't know. But I think though, that basically everyone who has been calling for hard landing over the past year has been really, really wrong. And so when we look forward, it seems that we have to be a bit more circumspect. Maybe the way that the things work are not what we expect. So looking over the past year, it seems to be my base case is that a soft landing continues. After all, we continue to have what appears to be a strong economy that continues to be supported by significant amounts of fiscal spending and potentially fed rate cuts next year, which brings us to our next topic.
现在情况可能会有所改变。在接下来的几个月里，可能会出现一些不好的情况，这我无法预测。但是，我认为过去一年里一直呼吁硬着陆的人们都大错特错了。所以，当我们展望未来的时候，我们需要更为谨慎些。也许事情的运作方式并非我们预期的那样。因此，回顾过去的一年，我的基本观点是，软着陆将会继续。毕竟，我们仍然拥有一个强大的经济体，得到了大量财政支出的持续推动，而且明年有可能还会降息，这就引出了我们接下来要讨论的话题。
So the markets saw the soft landing data last week and reacted very strongly. Now, first and foremost, you can see this in the risk markets. So equity markets surged higher. And you can also see this in the dollar selling off aggressively. And the underlying cause of all this, I think, is that the market is beginning to price in sooner than expected fed rate cuts.
所以，市场在上周看到了平稳降落的数据并做出了强烈反应。首先，你可以在风险市场看到这一点。因此，股票市场飙升。你还可以看到美元大幅抛售。我认为，所有这些背后的原因是市场开始预期联储会提前降息。
Now the way that professionals look at this is through something called short-term interest rate futures, specifically so for futures, which are just a bet as to where short-term interest rates will be in the future.
专业人士看待这个问题的方式是通过所谓的短期利率期货，具体来说，这些期货就是对未来短期利率走向的一种押注。
Now, before last week, the market was thinking the first fed cuts may become sometime in the second half of next year. Now the market is thinking cuts can come as soon as March. Now this should not be a surprise to you because I wrote about this last month in my blog and I've been talking about it for the past few weeks.
在上周之前，市场预计联邦利率首次下调可能会在明年下半年的某个时间点发生。而现在，市场预计下调可能会在三月份就发生。对此，你应该并不感到意外，因为在我的博客中，我上个月就写过相关内容，过去几周我也一直在谈论这个问题。
So looking at short-term interest rate futures, you can see a very, very clear pulling forward of expected fed rate cuts and that is beginning to goose the markets a bit.
所以，观察短期利率期货，你可以非常清晰地看到预期的美联储利率削减的提前表现，这开始对市场产生了一些刺激效果。
Now, why would the markets price this? Well, they would price this because inflation is really coming down under control sooner than expected. Now, if you're listening to the Fed over the past few months, they've been telling you that they look at the world through the lens of real interest rates, not nominal.
那么，为什么市场会对此进行定价呢？价格主要是因为通货膨胀比预期更早得到了控制。现在，如果你在过去的几个月里一直在听美联储的说话，他们已经告诉你他们是通过实际利率，而非名义利率的视角来看待世界。
And what are real interest rates? Real interest rates are nominal interest rates minus expected inflation and expected inflation, difficult thing to measure, but strongly related to the inflation people are experiencing today.
那么，什么是真实利率呢？真实利率是指名义利率减去预期通货膨胀率。预期通货膨胀率是一个很难衡量的东西，但它与人们现在正在经历的通货膨胀密切相关。
So as inflation comes down, you think that expected inflation would also continue to trend lower. So if you keep nominal rates constant, what happens is that real rates continue to increase, which kind of doesn't make sense, right?
所以，随着通货膨胀的下降，你可能认为预期的通货膨胀也会继续呈下降趋势。因此，如果你保持名义利率不变，那么实际利率会继续上升，这有点不合理，对吧？
If the economy is slowing, if inflation is getting under control, you really want to further tighten monetary policy. You would probably want to ease a bit or at the very least, keep it where it is.
如果经济正在放缓，如果通货膨胀正在得到控制，你真的不需要进一步收紧货币政策。你可能需要适当放松，或者至少保持现状。
So based on this logic, if inflation is coming down steadily, then it would make sense for the Fed to adjust their stance of policy.
因此，基于这个逻辑，如果通货膨胀稳步下降，那么美联储调整其政策立场就是有道理的。
Not just my mistake, to cut rates slightly, adjust monetary policy a little bit to maintain their current stance of restricted policy, to maintain the level of real rates. That seems totally logical to me, and I think that's what the market is pricing in now.
这不仅仅是我的错误，稍微降低利率，微调货币政策以保持其目前的紧缩政策立场，以保持实际利率的水平。这在我看来完全符合逻辑，我认为这就是市场现在的定价。
Now, there are also very smart people who think this is not the right way to look at it. These smart people would tell you that if the Fed were to reduce interest rates a little bit next year, well, that could be bad because one, that could cause economic activity to re-accelerate and make inflation more difficult to get rid of.
现在，也有一些非常聪明的人认为，这不是看待问题的正确方式。这些聪明人会告诉你，如果美联储明年稍微降低一些利率，那可能会带来负面效果，原因有二。一是，这可能会重新刺激经济活动，使得通货膨胀更难以控制。
And secondly, that it could cause financial assets to surge, which of course would also make inflation more difficult to get rid of.
其次，金融资产可能会飙升，这当然也会使通货膨胀更难以消除。
I think these are very good arguments, but I'm not really bothered by them. So the argument that stronger economic activity would re-accelerate inflation is makes complete sense. And that's really what you would be reading about in textbooks.
我认为这些都是非常好的论点，但我并不真的被它们所困扰。所以，更强大的经济活动将加速通货膨胀的论点非常有道理。这其实就是你在教科书中会阅读到的内容。
But it just hasn't been the case for the past year. Remember, third-quarter GDP printed at 4.9% annual rate. It was bonkers. And the whole year, we've been growing above trend, but also the past year, inflation has been steadily coming down. That relationship between economic growth and inflation doesn't seem to be very strong.
但是过去一年并非如此。请记住，第三季度的GDP年化增长率为4.9%。这简直是疯狂。整个一年我们的增长都在趋势之上，但是过去一年里，通货膨胀也在稳步下降。经济增长和通货膨胀之间的联系似乎并不强大。
Now, I think Chair Powell still thinks that he needs to see some weakness in the labor market, and maybe the economy, to feel comfortable that inflation is on the right path. But I'm getting the sense that he's a bit more open-minded now, simply because the facts compel him to.
现在，我认为鲍威尔主席仍然认为他需要看到劳动力市场，以及可能的经济疲弱以确认通货膨胀处在正确的轨道上。但我感觉到他现在的思维变得更为开放，这仅仅是因为事实迫使他这样去思考。
Now, the second thing is whether or not rate cuts would goose the markets and make inflation more difficult to control, because if the stock market is going to the moon, everyone has more wealth to spend. I think that's totally reasonable as well.
现在，第二个问题是，降低利率是否会刺激市场并使通货膨胀更难控制，因为如果股市飞涨，每个人都有更多的财富去消费。我也认为这完全合理。
And indeed, if you look back the past few years, you can see that, well, you had the crypto boom, you had all these Ferraris with BTC and on their license plates. I think there is some connection between wealth and economic growth and inflation.
确实，如果你回顾过去几年，你会发现，比特币的繁荣，甚至有些法拉利车牌都打上了比特币的标志。我认为财富、经济增长和通货膨胀之间存在着某种联系。
But we also have to be mindful of the experience after the great financial crisis. Ben Bernanke wanted to have a huge wealth effect and try to goose the economy by creating a big asset price bubble. And indeed, the stock market went up a lot after the GFC for several, several years. But growth and inflation remained relatively tame. So that connection between asset prices and economic growth and inflation, it's there, but it's also not super clear to me as well.
但我们也必须牢记大金融危机后的经验。本·伯南克希望创造巨大的财富效应，并通过创建大规模的资产价格泡沫来刺激经济。实际上，在金融危机后的几年里，股票市场的增长速度十分惊人。但是，经济增长和通胀率相对较为温和。所以，资产价格与经济增长和通胀之间的连接是存在的，但我也不太清楚这种联系的具体情形。
Again, these are all good arguments, and I think that's what's going to keep the Fed from easing. Of course, they're not going to change the monetary policy to be more accommodative. But I don't think those are good arguments against maintaining the SaaS monetary policy.
再次强调，这些都是很好的观点，我认为这些观点将阻止联邦储备系统（Fed）采取放松政策。当然，他们不会修改货币政策以使其更具灵活性。但是，我不认为这些观点足以反驳维持软件即服务（SaaS）的货币政策。
And to maintain the sense of monetary policy, I think you'd have to adjust nominorates in line with declining inflation. Remember, keeping real rates steady.
为了保持货币政策的意义，我认为你需要根据下降的通货膨胀率调整名义利率。请记住，保持实际利率稳定。
So my base case continues to be a rate cut in March, which is what I also mentioned over the past few weeks.
所以，我一直认为的基本情况还是三月份的利率降低，这也是我在过去几周里一直提到的。
Now, I've heard some confusion about this. How can I say that, let's say, Fed is going to cut rates next year and yet the 10 years continuing to rise? Well, I actually believe both things will happen. So you could have some a few rate cuts next year just to adjust the SaaS monetary policy, but you could still have the 10 year continue to rise simply because of supply and demand dynamics.
现在，我听说一些人对此感到困惑。我如何才能说，比如说，明年联邦储备系统将削减利率，而10年期的利率却继续上升呢？其实，我确实认为这两件事情会同时发生。所以，明年可能只是为了调整塞斯货币政策，会有几次率的削减，但是由于供需动态，10年期的利率仍有可能继续上升。
The way that you can think about this is an expansion of term premium. So if you are professional and you're looking at a longer deal of interest rates, you could break them down into two components. One, of course, is an expectation on the path of policy. That is what the Fed is doing. And the other is just an extra premium.
你可以将这个问题理解为期权溢价的扩展。所以，如果你是一个专业人士，你正在关注一个较长期的利息率交易，你可以把它分解成两个部分。一部分，当然，是对政策路径的期望，也就是美联储正在做的事。另一部分，就是额外的溢价。
So what's been happening over the past few months is that the market stands to policy until the past week hasn't changed a lot and yet the 10 year yield has gone higher. That's just the expansion of the term premium. You can measure this through something called swap spreads, where you take the difference between where the 10 years trading and where the market is pricing in the path of 10 year overnight rates.
因此，在过去的几个月里，发生的情况是市场对政策的态度一直保持不变，直到过去的一周才有很大的变动。而十年期的收益率却在上升，这只是期限溢价的扩大。你可以通过某种叫做掉期利差的方式来衡量这个，也就是取十年期交易的差异和市场预期的十年期隔夜利率的路径。
Now, from this chart, you can see that the swap threads have become increasingly negative over the past few months. Gave back a little bit, but it's still trending downwards. The more negative that means that is, and that means that the 10 year yield is rising, not because of expectations of what the Fed is going to do, but supply and demand dynamics in the market.
现在，从这个图表中，你可以看到过去几个月里互换线程变得越来越负面。虽然有些许回升，但总的趋势还是向下。越负面就意味着，十年期债券收益率的上升，不是由于预期美联储会做何种操作，而是市场中的供求动态所导致的。
I think that will continue. And so I still think that next year we will have the 10 year yield above 5% and probably above 5.5% as well. So there's going to be a curve steepening.
我认为这种情况将会持续。所以我仍然认为明年我们的十年期收益率将超过5%，甚至可能超过5.5%。因此，收益曲线将变得更陡峭。
Okay, now the last thing I want to talk about is the ICBC hack that happened last week. So I was looking in my comments and I saw some doomers talking about this, about how this is a big deal. And let me tell you right now, it's not a big deal at all.
好的，现在我要谈论最后一件事，那就是上周发生的工商银行被黑事件。我在评论中看到有些人在抱怨这个问题，认为这是个大问题。让我告诉你，其实这件事一点也不重要。
So first off, ICBC is a ginormous ginormous Chinese bank. But let me also ask you how many ICBC branches do you see in your hometown? My guess is zero because they're actually very, very small in the United States. So ICBC, their securities branch was subject to a ransomware attack and that made it difficult for them to settle their trades. So is that a really serious thing?
首先，我想说的是，工商银行是一家非常非常大的中国银行。但我也想问问你，在你的家乡你看到了多少工商银行的分行？我猜可能是零，因为实际上在美国，他们的规模非常非常小。怎么说呢，就是工商银行的证券分支机构遭受了一次勒索软件攻击，这使得他们难以处理他们的交易。这是个很严重的事情吗？
Okay, well, let's pull up the filings of the ICBC securities dealer. It looks like their total assets are about 23 billion. Now, let me remind you, 23 billion is not a lot of money in the global financial system. It looks like the biggest thing on their balance sheet is, I'll say, I think it's 16, something like that billion in repo. Well, how big is the repo market? Well, the repo market overall is four or five trillion dollars, right? So again, if you have ICBC having trouble with their transactions, there are a microscopic part of the repo market. It's not really going to have any big impact, but it is going to have some impact.
好吧，我们来看一下工商银行证券经销商的报表。看起来他们的总资产大约是230亿美元。让我提醒你，230亿美元在全球金融体系中并不算大数目。他们资产负债表上最大的项目，我估计，大概是160亿左右的回购。那么，回购市场有多大呢？整体回购市场是四五万亿美元，对吧？所以，如果说工商银行在交易方面有问题，他们在回购市场中的份额只是微乎其微的部分。这并不会带来太大影响，但肯定会有一些影响。
And that is why over the past couple of weeks, we have an increase in treasury fails. You've seen people say that treasury fails soared and indeed they did, but let's look at the data set with more context. You can see that treasury fails did increase a little bit, but just a little bit. That's not kind of not a big deal.
这就是为什么在过去的几周里，我们看到了国债违约的增加。你可能已经看到有人说国债违约猛增，确实如此，但让我们更全面地看待这组数据。你可以看到国债违约确实有所增加，但只是稍微增加了一点。这算不上什么大问题。
But more broadly speaking, what is a treasury fail? So a treasury fail is when a buyer and a seller, okay, so a seller promises to give a buyer treasury securities and a buyer promises to give the seller money, okay? They agree on a trade and the next day though, the buyer has money ready, but the seller is not able to deliver the treasury security.
但从更广义上讲，什么是“债券违约”呢？所谓的"债券违约"，就是一个买家和一个卖家，卖家答应给买家国债证券，并且买家答应给卖家相应的钱。他们商定了这次交易，然而在第二天，尽管买家已经有钱准备好，但是卖家却没能交付国债证券。即已经无法兑现他所答应的交易。
The seller fails. Now, looking at the treasury fails, you can see that this happens regularly and it can happen in four a variety of reasons. It could be just some kind of miscommunication or something like that.
卖家没有达到预期。现在，从财政失败的角度来看，你可以看到这种情况经常发生，且可能因各种不同的原因发生。可能只是某种类型的沟通失误或者类似的事情。
But what happens when at a fail though, honestly, what happens is that a buyer convention, okay, so I wanted to buy a treasury security from you for settlement. You don't have the treasury security. That's okay. We'll do the deal tomorrow. So by convention, all that happens is that we roll forward the settlement day by one day.
但是，如果交易失败了，说实话，会发生什么呢？实际上，发生的是买方协定，好吧，我想从你那里购买一份国债，用以结算。你却没有这份国债，没关系，我们明天再交易。所以，按照惯例，我们只是把结算日推迟一天。
So you don't have the treasury to deliver. We'll do the settlement tomorrow. That's all that happens. Now, the seller of course is motivated to not do this because the seller is losing the opportunity cost of the funds. So let's say the seller today could have sold his treasury security for $1,000. He could have taken that $1,000 and reinvested it overnight for 5%.
所以你没有资金来交付。我们将在明天进行清算。这就是所有的情况。现在，卖家当然不想这么做，因为卖家会失去资金的机会成本。比如说，卖家今天本可以以1000美元的价格卖出他的国债，然后将这1000美元以5%的回报率在一夜之间重新投资上。
Now, if he's not selling the treasury today, well, then he's losing out on that 5% return so there's an opportunity cost for the seller that motivates the seller to not want to fail. So this is basically a self-correcting thing.
现在，如果他今天并未出售国债，那么他就会错过5%的回报，因此对于卖家来说，这就有一种机会成本，这种机会成本会激励卖家不想失败。所以这基本上是一种自我纠正的机制。
So what seemed to have happened in ICBC's case is that because of this ransomware attack, these repo trades, these treasury trades were not able to settle correctly. And so they had to go and do this the old-fashioned way. It seemed mainly by putting it on a USB drive and delivering it to the clearing bank or something like that. And the Fed of course, seeing that they had some technical difficulties just kept the market open just a little bit so that they can put in their trades.
所以在中国工商银行的情况中，看似因为这次勒索软件的攻击，使得这些回购交易和国债交易无法正常结算。因此，他们不得不采用旧式的方式来完成这一操作。主要方式看来是把数据放在USB驱动器上，然后把它交付给清算银行或类似的地方。而美联储当然见到他们有一些技术困难，就稍微延长了市场开放的时间，以便他们可以进行交易。
Now, the treasury market is tightly linked. So even though this bank is only doing say $16, $17, $18 billion in trades, someone is on the other side of that trade. Maybe someone else wants to buy treasury securities from ICBC and then turn around and sell it to someone else. If ICBC fails to that person, then that person has to turn around and fail to someone else. There's a daisy chain effect here. So someone very small like ICBC can cause a greater than expected treasury fails. But then again, at the end of the day, all that happens is that you settle the next day. And to be perfectly clear, if you really, really want to get the treasury, you can actually borrow it from the Fed. The Fed has a special facility called the Securities Learning Facility. That's intention that is designed to help dealers through these problems. So this is really not a big deal. ICBC, small bank, treasury fails, not a big deal. Seen it a thousand times. In fact, we had a really big problem back in 9-11 when the Twin Towers went down and you basically had dealers have their entire computer databases destroyed. And yet the treasury market, with the help of the official sector, still struggled through. So this is something that the Fed and everyone else is well equipped to deal with. I wouldn't worry about it at all.
现在，国债市场紧密相连。所以，即使这家银行只进行了160亿、170亿、180亿美元的交易，交易的另一方也是有人的。或许有人想从工商银行那里购买国债，然后转身将其卖给别人。如果工商银行对那个人违约，那个人就必须转身对别人违约。这里存在一个连锁反应。所以，像工商银行这样的小银行可能会导致比预期更大的国债违约。但是，归根结底，所有这些只会在第二天结算。要完全明确的是，如果你真的很想获得国债，你实际上可以从联邦储备系统借到。联邦储备系统有一个名为“证券借贷设施”的特殊机构，其目的就是帮助经销商解决这些问题。所以，这真的不是什么大问题。工商银行，小银行，国债违约，都不是什么大问题。见过一千次了。实际上，我们在911事件中遇到了一个非常大的问题，当双子塔倒塌时，经销商的整个电脑数据库都被摧毁了。然而，国债市场在官方部门的帮助下仍然艰难地勉力前行。所以，这是联邦储备系统和所有人都有能力应对的事情。我根本不会担心。
Okay. So that's all prepared for this week. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you like what I'm producing, remember to like and subscribe. And if you're interested in my latest market thoughts, check out my blog, FedGuy.com, or my market courses at centralbank101.com.
好的，所以这周的准备工作都已经做好了。非常感谢你的收听。如果你喜欢我做的内容，记得点击喜欢和订阅。如果你对我最新的市场思考感兴趣，可以去我的博客，FedGuy.com看看，或者去centralbank101.com查看我的市场课程。
So this coming week is Thanksgiving week. I'm not sure if there's anything to talk about in markets. It's usually a very quiet market. So it's possible that we may not have an episode next week. I will see.
所以下周是感恩节的一周。我不确定在市场上有没有什么可以说的。这通常是一个非常安静的市场。所以，我们下周可能不会有节目。我再看吧。
All right. Talk to you guys soon.
好的，待会儿再和你们聊。