Markets Weekly November 11, 2023

Hello, my friends. Today is November 11th. My name is Joseph, and this is Markets Weekly. This week, we're going to talk about three things. First, we have to talk about the awful third-year bond option that led to a spike in treasury yields. Let's talk about what happened there and what that might mean for treasury demand going forward.

大家好，朋友们。今天是11月11日。我叫约瑟夫，这是《市场周报》。本周，我们将谈论三个问题。首先，我们必须谈谈可怕的三年期债券期权问题，导致国债收益率飙升。让我们来谈谈那里发生了什么，以及对未来国债需求可能产生的影响。

Secondly, let's talk a little bit about the reverse repo facility. So ROP balances surged to over $2 trillion earlier in the year, but since mid-year have been steadily declining. This past week, we saw ROP dip below $1 trillion for the first time in a long time. Let's talk about what's driving that and what that might mean for markets.

其次，让我们稍微讨论一下逆回购工具。ROP余额在年初飙升到2万亿美元以上，但自年中以来一直在稳步下降。上周，ROP首次在很长一段时间内跌破1万亿美元。让我们来谈谈是什么推动了这一情况，以及对市场可能产生的影响。

And lastly, last week, we got some pretty interesting consumer survey data from the University of Michigan. It seems like consumer inflation expectations are surprisingly trending higher. Let's talk about what that might mean for monetary policy.

最后，上周我们从密歇根大学获得了一些相当有趣的消费者调查数据。消费者预期通胀似乎出乎意料地呈上升趋势。让我们谈谈这可能对货币政策意味着什么。

Okay, starting with the treasury auction. First, let's level set a little bit. So in the US, Congress, which is the legislative body, decides how much money the federal government spends, and it also sets tax rates. In practice, Congress is always spending a lot more money than it takes in taxes, so it has to go and borrow the difference. That job falls to the US treasury.

好的，首先我们从国库拍卖开始说起。首先，我们来稍微解释一下。在美国，国会作为立法机构决定了联邦政府的支出金额，并设置税率。实际上，国会经常会花费比税收收入多得多的钱，因此它必须去借贷填补差额。这一工作则由美国财政部负责。

Now, the US treasury does not decide how much money to borrow, but it does have some discretion as to how it goes about borrowing it. For example, the US treasury can issue a whole lot of treasury bills, which are short-dated treasuries that the market can easily digest, or it can issue say, 30-year bonds, 10-year notes, and so forth, which are more difficult for the market to digest.

现在，美国财政部不决定要借多少钱，但它有一定自由裁量权来决定如何借款。例如，美国财政部可以发行大量的国债票据，这是市场容易接受的短期国债；或者它可以发行30年期国债、10年期国债等更难被市场消化的债券。

More recently, the US treasury has been weighing issuance towards shorter data tenors, but because the overall size of the deficit is so large, it's been increasing issuance all across the curve.

最近，美国财政部一直在考虑缩短数据期限的发行，但由于赤字总规模非常庞大，它一直在整个利率曲线上增加发行量。

The way the US treasury sells debt is through auctions, which for most tenors are monthly. In practice, what happens is that usually primary dealers go when they bid at the auction, and then take what they bought and resell it to their investor clients, say a generic pension fund. To be clear, if you are a big investor, let's say a sovereign wealth fund, you can also go and bid at the auction yourself, but for most investors, they buy their treasuries from their dealer.

美国财政部销售债务的方式是通过拍卖，对于大多数期限来说，拍卖是每月进行一次。实际操作中，通常情况下，主要交易商会参与竞标拍卖，并将所购买的债券再转售给他们的投资客户，比如典型的养老基金。需要明确的是，如果您是一个大型投资者，比如主权财富基金，您也可以亲自参与竞标拍卖，但对于大多数投资者来说，他们会从经销商处购买国债。

If you are a primary dealer, it's not always easy to know what you should bid at auction. You can look at the market, you have your own experience, but at the end of the day, you don't really know how much demand the risk for treasuries until the rubber meets the road, and so after the auction is finished, and you see where the clearing yield was.

如果你是一家主要交易商，要在拍卖会上确定应该出多少投标并不总是容易的。你可以观察市场，依靠自己的经验，但最终你并不真正知道国债所面临的需求风险有多大，直到拍卖过后，你才能确定清算收益率的位置。

Now auctions are usually judged according to how they perform relative to expectations. So if an auction clearing yield was, let's say, lower than market expectations, then we think that the auction did well, and if the auction clearing yield was higher than market expectations, then we think the auction did poorly.

现在，拍卖通常是根据它们相对于预期表现的方式来进行评判。因此，如果拍卖的竞价收益率较市场预期较低，我们认为该拍卖做得不错；而如果拍卖的竞价收益率高于市场预期，我们则认为该拍卖做得不好。

Now market expectations are usually done through something called when issued trading. So that's basically a bet among market participants as to where the treasury auction will clear at. Now this past week, we had a 30-year bond auction. Now 30-year bonds are the most difficult to digest treasury security because they are super long in tenor, and there's just not that much demand for something that matures in 30 years. You know, there's a lot of interest rate risk, and you really don't know how the world will evolve in the coming decades. So the auction clearing yield for that auction was five basis points above where the one issued was trading. So the auction did very poorly. There was a five basis point tail.

现在，市场预期通常是通过所谓的即期交易来确定的。因此，这实际上是市场参与者对国债拍卖结果的一种押注。在过去的一个星期里，我们进行了一次30年期债券拍卖。30年期债券是最难以消化的国债，因为其期限超长，而且对于到期日为30年的债券并没有太多需求。你知道，存在很大的利率风险，而且你真的不知道未来几十年世界会如何发展。因此，该拍卖的清算收益率比即期交易高了5个基点。所以这次拍卖表现非常糟糕，存在5个基点的失衡。

Historically speaking, a five basis point tail is really, really bad, and so the market got one look at those auction results and immediately a treasury yield spiked along the curve. Now I think this is really important because going forward, the US treasury is going to have to issue a tremendous amount of debt over the next several months.

从历史角度来看，一个五个基点的失利其实非常非常糟糕，因此市场一看到那些拍卖结果，立刻使得国债收益率沿着曲线上涨。我认为这非常重要，因为未来几个月，美国财政部将不得不发行大量的债务。

Now the amount of debt they have to issue is one due to the deficit and two due to quantitative tightening. So of course we don't really know how much money the treasury will spend the next fiscal year, but the estimate is about $1.8 trillion. Now to be clear, these estimates tend to go up over time because the US government likes to spend money. For all we know, we could have some more war related spending that boosts that 1.8 trillion number higher. But at the moment, I think market participants estimate $1.8 trillion fiscal deficit.

现在他们必须发行债券的原因有两个，一是因为赤字，二是因为量化紧缩。所以我们实际上不知道财政部在下一个财政年度会花费多少钱，但估计大约为1.8万亿美元。现在明确一点，这些估计往往随着时间的推移而增加，因为美国政府喜欢花钱。就我们所知，我们可能会有一些与战争有关的支出，这将提高这1.8万亿美元的数字。但目前市场参与者估计财政赤字为1.8万亿美元。

Okay, so the treasury has to go and borrow that much debt. But on top of that though, we also have quantitative tightening to the tune of about $700 billion a year. So quantitative tightening is basically the US treasury going out and borrowing from private investors and taking that money to repay the Fed. So at the end of the day, quantitative tightening increases the amount of treasury securities private investors have to absorb. So you add $1.8 trillion in fiscal deficit with $700 billion in QT. Then you arrive at a number of about $2.5 trillion in treasuries that the private sector has to absorb.

好的，所以财政部必须去借入那么多债务。但除此之外，我们还有大约7000亿美元的数量紧缩。因此，数量紧缩基本上是指美国财政部向私人投资者借款，然后用这笔钱偿还联邦储备系统。所以说，到最后，数量紧缩增加了私人投资者需要吸收的国债证券的数量。这样，财政赤字增加了1.8万亿美元，加上数量紧缩的7000亿美元，就会得到约2.5万亿美元的国债需要私人部门吸纳。

Now the US treasury has been issuing a lot of bills, but they've also been gradually issuing the issuance of 10 years and 30 years as well. Now, if the auction is having some trouble, the market is having some trouble digesting issuance today, well, that suggests that going forward, it's going to have more trouble as there's more issuance going forward. And again, yields are probably going to have to trend higher. Again, at the end of the day, any financial asset like anything else is supply and demand. And as we've been discussing over the past several months, supply is very large. Demand a lot less certain.

现在，美国财政部一直在发行很多短期票据，但他们也逐渐开始发行10年和30年期债券。现在，如果拍卖遇到了一些困难，市场在消化发行的今天也存在一些问题，那么这意味着在未来，随着更多的发行，情况会更加困难。再说一遍，收益率可能会不得不趋高。再一次强调，最终，任何金融资产都符合供求关系。正如我们在过去几个月中所讨论的，供应量非常大，而需求则不确定得多。

One thing I'll also note though, is that an auction can never fail because if you are a primary dealer, you are obligated to bid at auction. So you're never going to have an instance where a treasury auction fails. They're always going to succeed. You want us to just notice whether or not there are big tails or not to gouge demand. And so far, things are not looking good. So we got to pay attention to these auctions, especially longer data 10 years, 10 years, one year, 30 year, going forward to see how demand is holding up because we know issuance is just going to keep going higher and higher.

我还想提一点，拍卖会永远不会失败，因为如果你是一家主要的交易商，你有义务在拍卖中进行竞标。所以你永远不会遇到国债拍卖失败的情况。它们总是会成功的。你只需要注意是否有大尾巴来评估需求。而目前的情况不容乐观。所以我们必须密切关注这些拍卖，尤其是长期拍卖，例如十年期、一年期和三十年期，以观察需求的情况，因为我们知道发行量只会不断增加。

Okay. Then the next thing that I want to talk about is the reverse repo facility. So the reverse repo facility, you can think of it as kind of like this repository of excess cash in the financial system. So money market funds have a lot of cash they need to invest and they are very conservative investors. Usually they just want to invest in treasury bills or treasury backed repo. But in an event that they can't find, let's say attractive and investments at attractive yields, they always have the backup option of investing in the reverse repo facility at the RRP offering rate.

好的。接下来我想要谈论的是逆回购工具。所谓逆回购工具，你可以将其看作是金融系统中过剩现金的库存。货币市场基金有很多现金需要投资，而他们通常是非常保守的投资者。通常情况下，他们只愿意投资国债或由国债作为担保的回购。但是如果他们找不到有吸引力的投资或具有吸引力的收益率的投资机会时，他们总是可以选择在逆回购工具中以逆回购招标利率投资作为备用选项。

Now over the past two years, money funds had tremendous amounts of cash inflows and they couldn't find investments to make attractive yields. So they ended up just putting a lot of that money in the reverse repo facility. So we saw RRP balances surge to over two trillion earlier in the year. But that all changed starting in June, starting in June, the US treasury began to issue a ton of treasury bills. Again, supply and demand increases supply of treasury bills. That means bill prices decline, which in fixed income world means that bill yields are going higher. So finally, the bill yields rose enough to be comfortably above the reverse repo facility offering rates and money market funds began to take money out of the RRP facility and buy bills. And they did that to an enormous extent. So we see the RRP declining around a trillion dollars in a few short months. And I expect that to continue going forward.

在过去两年中，货币基金获得了大量现金流入，却找不到能够获得吸引人收益的投资项目。因此，它们最终决定将很多资金存入逆回购机制。所以我们在今年年初看到逆回购余额激增至两万亿美元以上。但从六月份开始，美国国债开始大量发行国债券。供需关系的变化导致国债价格下降，而在固定收益领域，价格下降意味着收益率上升。因此，国债收益率最终上升到了舒适地超过逆回购机制的报价，于是货币市场基金开始撤出逆回购机制并购买国债。而且他们购买的规模非常庞大。所以我们在短短几个月内就看到逆回购余额减少了约一万亿美元。而我预计这一趋势将继续下去。

Now let's take the next step. So all that money left the RRP. Where does it go? Well, so well, the money market fund took money out of the reverse repo facility and lent it to the US treasury. And so it goes to the US treasury's checking account at the New York Fed. This is called the treasury general account. And indeed, we see the treasury general account balances surge to about 700 billion dollars. But of course, the US treasury is not just borrowing money to keep it in their piggy bank. They are borrowing money to spend. So when the US treasury then takes that money out of its checking account, it spends it. And that money ends up in someone else's account in the private sector. For example, let's say that the US treasury bought a whole bunch of missiles from a military contractor. The money goes out of its checking account and into the account of the military contractor. That account is held in a private bank. So at the end of the day, we have RRP money flowing into the treasury's account and then into the bank sector, it increases the cash level of commercial banks.

现在让我们迈出下一步。那么所有的钱都离开了逆回购（RRP）市场。它去了哪里呢？嗯，好吧，货币市场基金从逆回购市场中取出资金，并将其借给了美国财政部。于是，这笔钱流向了美国财政部在纽约联邦储备银行的结算账户，也就是所谓的财政总账户。事实上，我们看到财政总账户的余额飙升到约7000亿美元。当然，美国财政部不只是借钱存放在他们的储蓄罐里。他们借钱是为了支出。因此，当美国财政部从其结算账户取出这笔钱时，它会进行支出。这些钱最终流入私人部门的某个账户。例如，假设美国财政部从军火承包商那里购买了一大批导弹。资金从其结算账户转移到军火承包商的账户。该账户由一家私人银行持有。因此，到了一天结束时，RRP资金流入财政部账户，然后流入银行部门，提高了商业银行的现金水平。

Now if you zoom out a bit, you'll notice that the cash levels of commercial banks, we call these reserves, have actually trended higher over the past year. Now this is a bit surprising because at the same time, the Fed is doing quantitative tightening. And one of the things that quantitative tightening does is that it sucks cash out of the banking system. Now, even though the Fed is doing quantitative tightening aggressively, yet the cash balances of the commercial banks are gradually rising. This is because the treasury's draining of the RRP is in part neutralizing some of the effects of quantitative tightening. And I expect this to continue in the for the next few months until the RRP goes to zero. So the strange thing is that even though the treasury, even though excuse me, the Fed is doing quantitative tightening, we may actually see the cash balances of commercial banks increase in the coming months.

现在如果你稍微放大一点视角，你会注意到商业银行的现金水平，我们称之为储备，实际上在过去一年里一直呈上升趋势。这有点令人惊讶，因为与此同时，美联储正在进行量化收缩。而量化收缩的一个作用就是从银行系统中抽取现金。现在，尽管美联储正在积极进行量化收缩，但商业银行的现金余额逐渐增加。这是因为财政部正在通过回购协议提取资金，部分抵消了量化收缩的影响。我预计在接下来的几个月里，这种情况将持续下去，直到回购协议降至零。所以奇怪的是，尽管财政部，对不起，是美联储正在进行量化收缩，但我们实际上可能会在未来几个月看到商业银行的现金余额增加。

So what does this all mean? One, so you could have different conclusions. One very concrete conclusion is that as commercial banks have more cash, that is to say the reserve balances increase, then their funding conditions ease. They have more liquidity and maybe there's less funding pressure for that. Maybe they don't have to go in bid as aggressively for competing for deposits and so forth. So it's supportive of the banking sector.

那么这一切意味着什么呢？首先，你可能会得出不同的结论。一个非常明确的结论是，当商业银行拥有更多现金，也就是储备余额增加时，它们的资金状况会变得更加宽松。它们拥有更多的流动性，可能面临更少的融资压力。也许它们不需要为争夺存款而进行过度竞标等。因此，这对银行业是支持性的。

Now the second potential effect impact is that it could also be interpreted as a loosening of financial conditions. So from looking at social media and from my experience at the Fed, there's a lot of people in the investor community who look at reserve balances as a proxy of a quote unquote liquidity. And when they see that go higher, they think that is bullish for asset prices. Now I'm not sure if there is a good mechanical reason for that, but there is definitely a perception that when that happens, it's positive for risk assets. So potentially you could have some people look at rising reserve balances in commercial banks and think that, hey, financial conditions are loosening. Maybe that's positive for risk assets. Again, this is just a sentiment thing. Personally, I'm not quite sure if there's a strong mechanical reason, but that could be an interpretation going forward. So let's see what people are thinking about that.

现在第二个潜在的影响是，它也可以被解读为金融条件的放松。所以从社交媒体和我在Fed的经验来看，投资者群体中有很多人将储备余额视为“流动性”的代理指标。当他们看到这一数字上升时，他们认为这对资产价格是利好的。现在我不确定是否有一个好的机械原因支持这种观点，但肯定存在这样一种看法，即当发生这种情况时，对风险资产是积极的。因此，可能会有一些人认为商业银行存款准备金余额上升意味着金融条件正在放松。也许这对风险资产来说是积极的。再次强调，这只是一种情绪因素。就个人而言，我不太确定是否有一个强有力的机械原因，但这可能是一个未来的解读。让我们看看人们对此有什么看法。

Okay. The last thing that I'll talk about is this really interesting data from the University of Michigan, which suggests that consumer inflation expectations are actually rising. And this is going to scare the Fed a bit because from the Fed's perspective, inflation expectations are a very important part of determining what actual inflation is. Now this is standard PhD economist thinking. I'm not sure that's how the world works, but I'll explain the theory to you. The theory is that let's say consumers expect inflation to be 5% in the next few years. Well, if they think that inflation is going to be 5%, that means that they think that prices going forward are going to be higher than they are today. And if that's the case, well, then you should go and buy today, right? So if you, if everyone thinks that way, then demand is higher today, higher demand leads to actual higher inflation. You can also think about this from the business perspective. If businesses expect inflation to be 5% going forward, then when they set prices each year, they obviously have to set it 5% higher, right? Because inflation is 5%. And by doing that, they actually make actual prices higher. So that's why, according to traditional economic theory, inflation expectations is a really important thing that you have to watch.

好的。我要谈论的最后一件事是来自密歇根大学的非常有趣的数据，表明消费者对通胀预期实际上在上升。这将让美联储有点担忧，因为从美联储的角度来看，通胀预期是确定实际通胀水平的一个非常重要的因素。现在这是标准的经济学博士的思维方式，我不确定这就是现实运作的方式，但我会给你解释这个理论。这个理论是这样的，假设消费者预期未来几年的通胀率为5%。好，如果他们认为通胀率将会达到5%，这意味着未来价格会比今天高。如果是这样的话，你应该现在就购买，对吧？所以如果每个人都这样想，那么如今的需求就会更高，更高的需求会导致实际通胀率的增加。你也可以从企业角度思考这个问题。如果企业预期未来的通胀率为5%，那么每年他们定价时显然必须将价格提高5%，对吧？因为通胀率就是5%。通过这样做，他们实际上提高了实际价格。所以根据传统经济理论，通胀预期是一个你必须要关注的非常重要的因素。

Now, the Fed over the past year have been telling everyone that inflation expectations are stable. They're well anchored. So they're not really worried. And to be fair, that there is some validity to that. Now, when you're trying to figure out what inflation expectations are, there's a lot of ways you can go about doing that. You can do surveys or you can look at market-based measures and so forth. And there are very many different market-based measures and many different surveys. The University of Michigan survey is just one survey among many. Now, what the Fed has been looking at, many other surveys, and they're thinking that consumer inflation expectations look stable, or they can look at tips implied break-evens, which is a market-based measure. And they can also think that inflation expectations have been stable and they may be. But of course, what is stable could become unstable?

现在，过去一年来，美联储一直告诉每个人通胀预期是稳定的。它们是牢固的。所以他们并不真担心。公平地说，这是有一定道理的。当你试图了解通胀预期时，有很多方法可以做到这一点。你可以进行调查，或者可以看市场衡量等等。而且有非常多不同的市场衡量和调查。密歇根大学的调查只是众多调查中的一个。现在，美联储一直在关注许多其他调查，并认为消费者的通胀预期看起来是稳定的，或者他们可以查看tips隐含的风险溢价，这是一种基于市场的衡量。他们还可以认为通胀预期一直稳定，并且可能确实如此。但当然，稳定的东西也可能变得不稳定。

Now, from my own work, I've taken a deep dive into some of these inflation expectations readings. And when you look under the hood, the data actually is rather potentially concerning, because what it shows is that although median inflation expectations are trending towards 2%, that median hides a significant divergence. There's a large fraction of respondents to these surveys who adjusted their inflation expectations, notably higher during 2020-2021, and just kept them higher. So there's a large fraction of people in the public who have permanently adjusted their inflation expectations higher.

现在，根据我的工作，我深入研究了一些关于通胀预期的数据。当你细看这些数据时，实际上会发现它们可能会引起一些担忧，因为它显示虽然中位数通胀预期趋向于2%，但中位数隐藏了明显的分歧。在这些调查中，有很大一部分受访者在2020-2021年期间调高了他们的通胀预期，并且保持在较高水平。因此，公众中有很大一部分人已经永久性地将他们的通胀预期调高了。

Now, even though the median is heading towards 2%, those guys, they still think inflation is going to be above 4%. Now this means that the median is going to be pretty unstable. You can easily have it shift if just slightly more people join the high inflation expectations camp.

现在，尽管中位数通胀率正朝着2%的方向发展，但那些人仍然认为通胀率将超过4%。这意味着中位数将相当不稳定。只要稍微有更多的人加入高通胀预期的阵营，就可能导致中位数发生偏移。

So from my own view, my own work, I don't actually think inflation expectations are well anchored. Actually, I think they're quite fragile. But the Fed so far thinks that they're well anchored. If the Fed ever changes their mind, though, that's going to be biased their actions towards a more aggressive monetary policy, because the Fed is really, really scared of an unanchoring of inflation expectations. Because what they learned in the 1970s and 80s is that once inflation expectations become unanchored, it's really hard to get them re-anchored. So far, they think that things are well anchored, and so they've been proceeding in a leisurely place. If that ever changes, and to be clear, right now we have some indication from the University of Michigan that they're not, that they're taking higher. There's still a lot of other indicators to look at. But if the Fed ever comes to the conclusion that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored, I would expect them to become more aggressive. That's not the case today, but it's just something to look towards.

在我个人的观点和工作中，我实际上认为通胀预期并没有很好地锚定下来。事实上，我认为它们相当脆弱。但是迄今为止，美联储认为它们已经很好地锚定下来。然而，如果美联储改变他们的想法，那将会导致他们采取更为积极的货币政策，因为美联储真的非常害怕通胀预期失去锚定。因为他们在20世纪70年代和80年代学到的是，一旦通胀预期失去锚定，重新锚定它们就非常困难。迄今为止，他们认为情况很好，所以他们一直在以放松的节奏进行。但如果情况发生改变，明确一点，现在我们从密歇根大学那里得到了一些迹象，表明它们正在上升。还有很多其他指标需要观察。但如果美联储得出结论，通胀预期正失去锚定，我会预计他们会变得更积极。今天还没有这种情况，但这只是一个要关注的问题。

And also, I would note that from my read, there's not a lot of evidence that suggests that inflation expectations actually influence actual inflation. If you look at, for example, what happened over the past few years, it seems like inflation expectations rise when the public's actual experience with inflation rise. So when the public sees inflation in their inflation rise, high inflation in their own day-to-day lives, they tend to adjust their inflation expectations higher. And when they see inflation come down in their actual everyday purchase, says they tend to adjust inflation expectations lower. So I don't actually think inflation expectations is super useful in predicting future inflation. Obviously, it did not predict the surge in inflation in 2020 and 2021.

并且，根据我的分析，现有的证据并不多表明通胀预期实际上会影响实际通胀情况。举个例子，回顾过去几年的情况，似乎当公众实际经历的通胀情况上升时，通胀预期也会上升。所以当公众在日常生活中看到通胀上升时，他们往往会调高他们对通胀的预期；而当他们看到实际购买中的通胀下降时，他们会调低通胀预期。所以实际上我认为通胀预期在预测未来的通胀情况方面并不是非常有用的。显然，它没有预测到2020年和2021年的通胀激增。

So I don't actually think it's a useful way of looking at the world. But again, markets are highly influenced by the Fed. So we have to put ourselves in the Fed's position and try to think about the world as they see it.

所以，我实际上认为这不是一种有用的看世界的方式。但是再次强调，市场受到美联储的高度影响。因此，我们必须站在美联储的立场上，试着从他们的角度来思考世界。

All right, so that's all I've prepared for today. If you like what I'm producing, remember to like and subscribe. And of course, if you're interested in learning more about markets, check out my online courses at CentralBanking101. If you are interested in my latest thoughts as to what's happening in the financial markets, check out my weekly research blog at FedGuy.com. And of course, if you're interested in my best-selling book on central banking, check it out at Amazon.com. Talk to you guys next week.

好的，那就是我今天准备的全部内容了。如果你喜欢我所创作的内容，请记得点赞和订阅。当然，如果你对了解更多市场信息感兴趣，可以去我的网上课程CentralBanking101上查看。如果你对我最新对金融市场的看法感兴趣，请查看我每周的研究博客FedGuy.com。当然，如果你对我关于中央银行的畅销书感兴趣，请去Amazon.com查看。下周再见！