Tesla Starts World's Biggest VPP / BMW's Absurd Tesla Comments / What Is Toyota Doing ⚡️

Tesla, this cyber truck, $100,000 for a cyber truck that I have a Maverick. Apparently, this does not have the payload of a Maverick, which fits in a small parking spot on any urban street in this country. I checked in the durability of the metal is not there. I wonder whether this man can sell even 50,000 of the 200,000 cyber trucks, and this may be for zero after all of the storm and drying about Sean Fane and how he took it to farm.

特斯拉，这款赛博卡车，要价10万美元，而我却拥有一辆“独行侠”(Maverick)。显然，这辆赛博卡车无法与“独行侠”一样携带大量货物，也无法在这个国家的任何城市街道上找到一个小停车位。我对金属的耐久性进行了检查，结果发现不尽如人意。我怀疑这个人是否能够卖出其中的20万辆赛博卡车中的甚至50,000辆，而且在参考了关于肖恩·法恩(Sean Fane)以及他是如何将农场耕作这一事情后，这可能会一无所获。

Welcome to Electrified. It's your host Dylan Loomis. First up today, Gary Black drove home the points we were making yesterday well, saying recent concerns that ED adoption has stalled are simply incorrect. GM and Ford, their decisions to delay EV capacity expansion are due to their inability to manufacture EVs cheaply and internal pricing mistakes. But if you zoom out and look at most markets globally, EV adoption is still growing.

欢迎来到电动化世界。我是您的主持人迪伦·卢米斯。首先，今天加里·布莱克很好地强调了我们昨天所提出的观点，他表示最近担心电动汽车（ED）采用的停滞是错误的。通用汽车和福特汽车决定推迟电动汽车生产能力的扩展，是因为他们无法以低廉的价格生产电动汽车，并且存在内部定价错误。但如果您放大视野，全球大部分市场上，电动汽车的采用仍在增长。

With the UAW reaching tentative agreements with Ford GM and Stellantis, this is definitely not the end of the story of course we still have voting to take place, but now the UAW will be shifting its focus to non-union plans and yes, Tesla is going to be on their list. As a counter move to this, we just talked about Toyota raising some of its non-union wages in the US to deter its employees from wanting to unionize to give you some context of scale. Toyota employs 170,000 workers at 10 US production facilities, all of them non-union. Recently Sean Fane reiterated he intends to move quickly to organize non-union plans and a labor historian said other non-union automakers will be responding in similar fashion as their workers see what unionizing can win them. A former Tesla employee back from the early days just said he doesn't expect any unionization drive to win at Tesla mainly because all Tesla employees are able to buy stock at a discount through the ESPP employee stock purchase program. This is what we've mentioned many times in the past, yes GM Ford, Toyota they can all raise their wage prices but they really don't have the same potential stock price appreciation as a company like Tesla. And yes I know that's absolutely a debatable point but to those really in the know that watch videos like this every day most of us would most likely agree. One thing to keep an eye on in the months ahead with these new contracts with the big three in the UAW, they allow unionization of the big three's future battery plans if a majority of their workers sign cards saying they want to join and that does not require an election. We know GM's Altium plans already voted to join the union and now there's a big question mark with Ford's major battery project what degree will they continue with that after scaling back some of their EV plans.

随着UAW（美国联合汽车工人工会）与福特、通用汽车和斯泰兰蒂斯达成初步协议，当然这并不是故事的终结。我们还需要进行投票，但现在UAW将把重点转向非工会计划，是的，特斯拉将会在他们的名单上。作为对此的反制举措，我们刚刚谈到了丰田提高了美国的非工会工资，以阻止员工想要加入工会，以便让你对其规模有一些概念。丰田在美国的10个生产设施中雇佣了17万名员工，全部是非工会成员。最近肖恩·费恩重申，他打算迅速组织非工会计划，一位劳工历史学家表示，其他非工会的汽车制造商将以类似的方式回应，因为他们的员工看到了加入工会可以获得什么。一位从特斯拉早期回来的前员工刚刚表示，他不认为特斯拉会发起任何工会组织运动，主要是因为所有特斯拉员工都可以通过ESPP（员工股票购买计划）以折扣价购买股票。这是我们之前多次提到过的，是的，通用汽车、福特、丰田等公司可以提高工资，但他们真的没有像特斯拉这样的公司那么有潜力股价上涨。是的，我知道这绝对是一个有争议的观点，但对于那些每天观看此类视频的真正了解情况的人来说，我们中的大多数可能会同意这一观点。在未来几个月里，关注这些与UAW的三大汽车巨头签订的新合同中的一个事项，如果他们大部分员工签署意愿书表示想加入，不需要选举，就允许联合化三大汽车巨头的未来电池计划。我们知道GM的Altium计划已经投票加入了工会，现在福特的主要电池项目存在一个大问题，在缩减了部分电动汽车计划后，他们将继续进行到什么程度。

And because people often ask me what I think the chances of Tesla unionizing are right now if I had to put a number on it I would say it's less than a 5% chance and saying that out loud actually feels a little high. Why? Well beyond the red tape that unions can put on an organization it's really the antithesis to Tesla's agile manufacturing techniques and I just believe that Tesla will continue to take care of its workers it'll do what it needs to do to make sure they remain happy. And the truth is the smaller minority at Tesla that may not be happy could relatively easily be replaced because they get millions of quality applicants every year.

因为人们经常问我目前特斯拉工会化的机会有多大，如果我不得不给出一个数字，我会说这个机会不到5%，而把它说出来实际上感觉有点高。为什么呢？除了工会可能给组织带来的繁文缛节外，它实际上是特斯拉敏捷制造技术的对立面。我只是相信特斯拉将会继续照顾其员工，它会尽力确保他们保持快乐。而事实上，在特斯拉这个小部分不太满意的少数人可以相对容易地被替代，因为他们每年都有数百万的优秀申请者。

Just a bigger storyline to keep in mind now we have some Chinese EV component suppliers actually looking for new customers in the Japanese market because the competition in China is so fierce. One of those suppliers who works with BYD just said we are here at the Japan mobility show because the competition at home is crazy and we hope to find some Japanese clients profit overseas is much higher than from domestic clients. The number of EV suppliers in China is so excessive that clients would push our prices extremely low leading to a very low profit margin. Meaning not only are the Chinese EV companies battling in a price war but we also have all the way down the supply chain the component makers in a very similar situation. So this over supply of supply chain companies and ultimately EV companies that over the past year or so has indeed been consolidating has been a big driver in the lower cost and why Tesla is turning gigashang high into its main export hub.

现在我们有一些中国电动汽车零部件供应商在日本市场寻找新客户，因为中国市场的竞争非常激烈，所以这是一个需要记住的更大故事线。与比亚迪合作的其中一家供应商表示，我们来到日本流动性展览会是因为国内市场的竞争太激烈了，希望能找到一些日本客户，因为海外客户的利润比国内客户要高得多。中国的电动汽车供应商数量过多，客户会将我们的价格压得非常低，导致利润率非常低。这意味着不仅中国的电动汽车公司在价格战中争斗，整个供应链的零部件制造商也面临着非常相似的情况。因此，过剩的供应链公司和电动汽车公司在过去一年左右确实一直在整合，这是降低成本的重要推动因素，也是为什么特斯拉将Gigashang高转为主要出口中心的原因。

Speaking of that consolidation taking place, there were hundreds of EV manufacturers and power battery makers at the height of the boom but now only a couple dozen of each remain.

说到这种整合的情况，当电动汽车行业达到高峰时，出现了数百家电动汽车制造商和动力电池制造商，但如今只剩下几十家。

Now we have US lawmakers expressing concerns about signing a limited free trade agreement with Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. A bipartisan group of senators argued the country's mining and refining industry is dominated by companies from China. They said we strongly believe eligibility for the critical minerals credit must prioritize domestic producers and existing free trade agreement partners like Canada and Australia. From everything that I've read, there's no way around it, the United States is going to have to import nickel to meet the ultimate demand.

现在，我们有美国议员对与世界最大的镍生产国印度尼西亚签署有限自由贸易协议表示担忧。一群两党参议员争辩说，该国的采矿和精炼行业被来自中国的公司所主导。他们表示，我们强烈认为关键矿物质信贷的资格必须优先考虑国内生产商和加拿大、澳大利亚等现有自由贸易协定伙伴。从我所了解的一切来看，美国必须进口镍以满足最终需求，这是无法回避的事实。

As we speak, negotiations are underway between the US and Indonesia to sign a limited FTA, which would allow Indonesian critical minerals, primarily nickel, to be covered by the subsidies. The CEO of an Australian mining company said Australian nickel is at a cost disadvantage compared to other jurisdictions like Indonesia, but it has the world's best environmental standards. Welcome to the never-ending power struggle of profits and true sustainability.

就在我们说话的时候，美国和印度尼西亚正在进行谈判，以签署一项有限的自由贸易协议，该协议将允许印度尼西亚的关键矿产（主要是镍）享受补贴。一家澳大利亚矿业公司的首席执行官表示，与印度尼西亚等其他地区相比，澳大利亚的镍成本处于劣势，但它拥有世界最好的环境标准。欢迎来到利润与真正可持续发展的永无休止的权力斗争。

Right now, Thailand has an EV subsidy scheme of about $2,000 to $4,000 that expires at the end of this year. Now, Thailand is planning a new subsidy scheme for EVs of about $2,760 per car starting next year through 2027. This EV 3.5 scheme was agreed on today, although they have not revealed the budget for these EV subsidies. We know that BYD is building a factory in the region and Tesla entered Thailand toward the end of last year. The outgoing subsidy program, the one ending this year, helped to put 50.3,000 EVs on the road in the first 9 months of 2023, far above the 9.7,000 units for the entirety of 2022.

目前，泰国有一个每辆电动车约2000到4000美元的补贴计划，该计划将在今年年底到期。现在，泰国计划在明年至2027年间推出一个新的电动车补贴计划，每辆车补贴约2760美元。尽管他们尚未透露这些电动车补贴的预算，但这个电动车3.5计划已经在今天达成协议。我们知道比亚迪正在该地区建厂，而特斯拉也于去年年底进入泰国市场。即将结束的补贴计划，也就是今年年底结束的那个，帮助在2023年的前9个月里上路的电动车数量达到了50.3万辆，远高于整个2022年的9.7万辆。

Just to touch on commodities because, of course, in the background, this plays a huge role in what Tesla's margins ultimately are, and when there are changes, it could be a few quarters before we see anything hit the financials because Tesla, of course, works on long-term supply deals for many different commodities. Although for a resource like lithium, Tesla in the past has said they do around 10% of their volume on the spot market for lithium deals.

就商品而言，它在特斯拉的利润率中起着巨大的作用，而当市场发生变化时，可能需要几个季度才会反映在财务报表中，因为特斯拉与众多不同商品的供应商建立了长期供应协议。尽管对于像锂这样的资源而言，特斯拉过去曾表示他们在锂交易中约有10%的交易量通过现货市场进行。

Right now, we have the benchmark 3-month copper futures 15% below the year-to-date high that was back in January. We also have nickel tumbling 43%. When it comes to copper, it's a matter of oversupply. We have dozens of new smelters that had been planned to lift output in anticipation of robust demand that are now open as demand slows. The expectation is there will be a copper supply surplus of 467,000 tons next year from the 27,000-ton shortfall expected this year.

现在，我们的基准3个月期铜期货价格比今年早些时候1月份的最高点低了15%。镍也下跌了43%。在铜方面，出现了供应过剩的问题。我们有数十个新的冶炼厂计划在需求旺盛的预期推动下提高产量，但由于需求放缓，这些冶炼厂现在已经投入使用。预计明年将出现467,000吨的铜供应过剩，而今年预计将出现27,000吨的供应缺口。

As we just talked about the US potentially setting up an FTA with Indonesia, there are expected to be 53 nickel and other smelters built in the region in 2024. Looking at nickel futures prices, we're now back to levels that we haven't seen since the end of 2021. So not only did we have a massive influx of supply being prepared when this spike happened but with more and more automakers in this cost competition, they're now looking at LFP which does not use any nickel or cobalt. This is definitely not going away for EVs any time soon but over the next two decades or so, most of the industry will be transitioning to LFP chemistries, and the same is true on the energy storage side.

正如我们刚刚讨论过的，美国有可能与印度尼西亚建立自由贸易协定，预计到2024年该地区将建设53个镍和其他冶炼厂。从镍期货价格来看，我们现在回到了自2021年底以来没有见过的水平。所以不仅在这次价格上涨时我们准备了大量的供应，而且随着越来越多的汽车制造商在成本竞争中出现，在LFP上也不使用任何镍或钴。电动车在短期内肯定不会消失，但在未来的20年左右，大部分行业将转向LFP化学体系，储能领域也是如此。

Shout out to Luca Greco on X4 putting this one on my radar. Here's a new company to keep an eye on. We have Canadian auto parts maker Lina Mar building a factory that will open in 2025 for giga casting. This will be the first giga casting planned, owned, and operated by a North American parts maker. There are 15 or 20 Chinese suppliers looking to put this type of capacity in China but from a European and North American standpoint, we are the first one according to the CTO. Initial plans call for the installation of three 6100-ton giga cast molding machines. The plan's production is earmarked for one specific customer, but he said they're concerned about the secrecy of the vehicle because it has not been announced. Lina Mar also has a site up and running in France and from there, they'll supply the first giga cast to its OEM customer here so it can move forward with its vehicle development program before going into full production after the Canada plant comes online. They said they can get 72 or 75 castings on a tractor-trailer, so when you start shipping higher volumes, things don't ship very well, meaning the giga cast we need to be close by.

向Luca Greco在X4上的瞩目点赞。这是一个值得关注的新公司。我们拥有加拿大汽车零部件制造商Lina Mar正在建设一座工厂，该工厂将于2025年投入使用，用于生产Giga Casting。这将是北美洲首家由零部件制造商计划、拥有和运营的Giga Casting工厂。根据首席技术官的说法，目前有15到20家中国供应商计划在中国建立此类生产能力，但从欧洲和北美的角度来看，我们是第一个。初步计划要安装三台6100吨的Giga Casting模具机。计划的生产目标定位为一个特定的客户，但他表示他们担心该车型的保密性，因为尚未公布。Lina Mar在法国也有一个投产中的工厂，从那里他们将向此处的原始设备制造商供应第一批Giga Casting，以便它能够在加拿大工厂投产之前继续进行车型开发计划。他们表示，他们能够在一辆卡车拖车上安装72或75个铸件，所以当开始运送更高数量时，物流会变得不太顺利，这意味着我们需要离Giga Casting近一些。

As North America tries to build out its own EV supply chain, although this feels like a very small step, you have to start somewhere.

随着北美尝试建立自己的电动汽车供应链，虽然这只是一个微小的步骤，但是你必须从某个地方开始。

A quick PSA from Holmars: he was trying to pull out of a narrow garage, the park assist was beeping at him, but he ignored it because the vision-based system has a big margin of error that he thought it would be okay. Well, it turns out it was not okay.

Holmars快速发布的一则公共安全警示：他试图从一个狭窄的车库开出来，停车辅助系统一直在发出警告声，但他没有理会，因为他认为基于视觉的系统误差较大，所以应该没事。然而，结果证明他的判断是错误的。

I'm on the forums every day, one of the biggest and most upvoted complaints I see is the vision-based park assist compared to how it used to work with the ultrasonic sensors. So yes in the long term I'd still have confidence the vision based system will be good enough if not better but we're definitely not there yet according to most of the anecdotes I read. But the takeaway I wanted everybody to have for now you might need to trust your ears more than your eyes with a vision based system.

我每天都在论坛上，而我看到的最大且受到最多赞的投诉之一是关于基于视觉的停车辅助系统与之前使用的超声波传感器相比的问题。所以从长远来看，我仍然对基于视觉的系统有足够的信心，甚至可能更好，但根据我所读到的大多数个人经历，我们还没有达到这个水平。但我希望大家现在可以记住一件事：对于基于视觉的系统，你可能需要更相信你的耳朵而不是你的眼睛。

Gregor truck on X shared a photo saying that the new model 3 actually includes an air compressor accessory but I've also seen other reports that local deliveries in China do not include this accessory so I believe this is going to be region specific and in certain locations something like this is actually mandated. So I just wanted to add I do not think this is going to be for everyone everywhere.

Gregor在X上分享了一张照片，表示新的3型号实际上包含了一个空气压缩机附件，但我也看到其他报道说，在中国本地交付的车辆不包括这个附件，所以我相信这将是特定地区的要求，只有在某些地方类似的要求才会实施。所以我只是想添加一下，我认为这不会适用于每个地方的所有人。

Well exandra Tesla boomer mama shared this article from ottamas intelligence and I love visual learning so here we have the top eevee cell suppliers globally January through August of this year CATL 31% of the total followed by LG and BYD specifically for Tesla. Automas has said year to date for 2023 Panasonic has supplied Tesla with 33% of its battery supply CATL now its main supplier with 35% and LG in third place making up 26% of Tesla's battery supply and 4680s making up the remaining 6%. And yes I know Tesla is also most likely sourcing batteries from BYD specifically the blade battery for giga Berlin so I would take those automas numbers with a 1 to 5 percentage point plus or minus just because they don't know for sure they're just estimates but overall BYD supply to Tesla is most likely still small relative to their other suppliers.

艾丽桑德拉·特斯拉（Exandra Tesla）的宝妈分享了一篇来自Ottamas Intelligence的文章，而我喜欢视觉学习，所以我们来看看今年1月至8月全球最大的电池供应商。今年迄今为止，CATL占总数的31％，其次是LG和BYD，特别是供应特斯拉。Ottamas表示，2023年底为止，松下向特斯拉供应了其电池总量的33％，而CATL现在成为其主要供应商，占35％，LG排名第三，占特斯拉电池供应的26％，而4680型电池占剩余的6％。是的，我知道特斯拉很有可能也从BYD这里获得了电池供应，尤其是为吉格·柏林工厂提供的刀片电池，所以我会将这些Ottamas的数据误差范围设定为1到5个百分点，因为他们无法确定，这只是估计值，但总体来说，BYD向特斯拉的供应相对较小。

Here we have some heuristic comments from BMW on Tesla their starting production of their first battery cell samples which they plan to use in their new class of EVs in 2025. Their production boss said this Tesla needs to close the gap with us in fact we don't see a gap to Tesla this when he was asked how BMW would close the gap with Tesla apparently he doesn't see it that way. He's also confident because BMW believes its on track to have battery costs with its new so called gen 6 cells taking a page right out of the Toyota Candyland playbook. It wouldn't be a battery breakthrough article without some numbers without any backing so they talk about 20% more energy density, 30% more range, up to 500 miles of range on a single charge. Not to mention 60% lower production related carbon emissions.

在这里，我们有来自宝马的一些启发性评论，关于特斯拉开始生产他们的第一批电池样品，这些电池样品将在2025年用于他们的新型电动汽车。他们的生产负责人表示特斯拉需要缩小与我们的差距，实际上，我们并没有看到与特斯拉之间的差距，当被问及宝马将如何缩小与特斯拉之间的差距时，很明显他并不这么看。他还自信地表示，因为宝马相信其新型所谓的第六代电池将以类似于丰田糖果乐园的方式降低电池成本。如果没有任何支持数据，一篇关于电池突破的文章就不完整，因此他们谈论了20%更高的能量密度、30%更长的续航里程，单次充电可达500英里。更不用说与生产相关的碳排放降低了60%。

However BMW ruled out undertaking the high volatility of large scale battery cell production exactly what Tesla has chosen to take on with 4680s. Metal production or volume production of the battery cells will be carried out by suppliers including CATL and EVE which will make them at 6 factories 2 in Europe, 2 in China and 2 in North America. BMW said it would rather focus on doing deep dives into the battery technology in house so it'll focus on the recipes and the chemistries and then once it finds something it'll then ship it off to somebody else to make.

然而，宝马排除了像特斯拉一样承担大规模电池单体生产的高度波动风险。电池单体的金属制造或大量生产将由供应商CATL和EVE负责，在欧洲设有2家工厂，中国和北美各有2家工厂。宝马表示，它更愿意专注于自家进行电池技术的深入研究，因此将专注于配方和化学成分，一旦找到合适的方案，将把其交由其他公司生产。

And look I know I'm giving him a hard time and the truth is I'm not sure how many of these legacy companies should try to make their own batteries. That's something that really maybe only Tesla can end up doing well, they've had a long time to develop it. These legacy OEMs need to focus on selling EVs first, working on the software and we know that in the long run yes vertical integration is the way especially if you want to have competitive margins but is it going to be biting off more than these legacy OEMs can chew given that they don't have the required talent to do something like that.

看，我知道我给他制造了麻烦，事实上，我不确定有多少这样的传统公司应该尝试自己制造电池。这是一件也许只有特斯拉能够做得好的事情，他们已经花了很长时间来开发它。这些传统汽车制造商需要首先专注于销售电动汽车，努力改进软件，并且我们知道从长远来看，垂直整合是一种尤其希望拥有竞争力的利润率的方式，但考虑到他们没有做这样事情所需的人才，这样做是否超出了这些传统汽车制造商的能力范围。

This shift does have BMW moving away from prismatic cells to cylindrical and they said the cylindrical cell is the way to go, it's our choice, it offers more flexibility. Their product chief also said we're working on our own design of electric engines and they're completely different than others in the market. Personally I find it interesting that BMW has the audacity to say that there's no gap with Tesla and that Tesla has to close the gap with them when they're literally only at the sample stage and they won't be implementing these cells into any real world product until 2025 at the earliest.

这种转变确实让宝马从棱柱形电池转向了圆柱形电池，并且他们说圆柱形电池是正确的选择，它提供了更多的灵活性。他们的产品主管还表示，我们正在研发我们自己设计的电动发动机，与市场上其他发动机完全不同。就我个人而言，我觉得宝马敢于说与特斯拉之间没有差距，并且特斯拉需要赶上他们的时候是很有意思的，因为他们只是处于样品阶段，并且在2025年之前不会将这些电池应用于任何真实的产品中。

And yes I know these legacy OEM leaders can't come out and be candid and say hey Tesla's crushing us right now but at the same time I think customers, investors and the general public just want relatability and honesty and you don't have very much of that in this space as of late. It's just been the same story over and over for 10 plus years now. Empty promise after empty promise, missed target, delayed target so at this point legacy OEM promises carry very little weight in my book right now.

是的，我知道这些传统汽车制造商的领导者们不能坦率地说：“嘿，特斯拉现在正在压垮我们”，但与此同时，我认为顾客、投资者和普通大众只是希望能够找到与他们有共鸣的和真诚的态度。而最近在这个领域里，你并没有很多这样的特质。这些年来，一直是同样的故事循环往复。充满承诺但空洞无物，错过目标，推迟目标。所以，对我来说，如今传统汽车制造商的承诺几乎没有什么可信度。

In October Tesla wholesale in China did 72.1 thousand vehicles down slightly from September. So here's a quick look at the table we're yet to get the official domestic and export breakdown but in the next few days we should have that. Over the past few weeks we've already talked ad nauseum about all of the asterisk situations for September and October given the Model 3 Plus and the Model Y partial refresh. So personally I was not at all expecting some sort of record here for October. It will be interesting though to see the breakdown of Model 3 and Y. And just taking a quick zoom out to look at the overall market for any of the wholesale sales for October you can see BYD doing silly numbers even if you do half full B.E.V. that's still 150,000 for the month.

在中国，特斯拉于十月的批发量为72.1万辆，略低于九月份。所以现在让我们来快速看一下表格，我们还没有得到官方国内和出口的具体数据，但在接下来的几天我们应该会拿到。在过去几周，我们已经反复讨论了九月和十月的一切情况，包括Model 3 Plus和Model Y的部分刷新。所以我的个人预期并不是去创造十月的一些纪录。不过，看到Model 3和Y的具体销售数据将会很有意思。并且，快速放大来看十月份整个市场的批发销售情况，你会看到比亚迪的销售数字很大，即使你只考虑半数的纯电动汽车，那也是15万辆。

Yesterday we talked about the Subaru Solterra and today we get their sales figures for October in the United States but first year to date they've sold 6973 of what's basically the busy 4x clone. And although the chart makes it look like they're seeing really nice growth for October they're still below 1300 units sold for the month in the US. Responding to that Ron Barron interview from yesterday Elon said we do need to knock the ball out of the park several times to achieve that value for a trillion dollars but I think we can. FSD, Optimus, Cybertruck, NextGen platform, Rubotaxi, Van, Dojo, those quickly come to mind and encouraging data point in the midst of all the EV negativity as of late in the first 9 months of this year EVs made up 21.5% of cars sold in California then if you include hybrid plug-in fuel cell that number jumps up to 35.4%. And those numbers aren't just for one month that's year to date. Also year to date in California Toyota remains the number one brand sold at 15% market share, Tesla and a close second 13.5%.

昨天我们谈论了斯巴鲁Solterra，今天我们获得了他们在美国十月份的销售数据，但是至今为止，他们已经销售了6973辆基本上是繁忙的4x克隆车型。尽管图表显示他们在十月份的增长非常好，但是他们在美国当月销售的车辆仍然未超过1300辆。在回应昨天的罗恩·巴伦采访时，埃隆表示，我们确实需要多次大获成功以实现一万亿美元的价值，但我认为我们能做到。全自动驾驶、Optimus、Cybertruck、NextGen平台、Rubotaxi、Van、Dojo，这些很快就能想起来，并且在今年前9个月的负面电动汽车数据中是一种令人鼓舞的数据，加州的销售车辆中电动汽车占了21.5%，如果包括混合动力、插电式混合动力和燃料电池车型，这个比例会增加到35.4%。而这些数据不仅仅是一个月的销售情况，而是年度销售情况。而在加州的年度销售情况中，丰田依然是首位销售品牌，占据市场份额的15%，特斯拉以13.5%的份额紧随其后。

Taking a quick look at Ford's October sales in the United States EVs 6.8 thousand for the month up 9.1% over last year and they've told us they're going to start focusing more on hybrid vehicles but already they've sold 13.1 thousand hybrids in October up 37.9% year over year. For October though Mach-E sales were down 10.6% compared to October of last year to 2.7 thousand. Year to date the Mach-E has sold 31.6 thousand units up from 31.1 thousand over the same time last year and the F-150 Lightning sold 3.7 thousand units for the month up 52 compared to last year and year to date the Lightning has sold 15.9 thousand trucks up 42% compared to the same time last year. I would highlight on their production table you'll see Mach-E production had ramped up over the summer to 13.6 thousand units but we have seen a decrease since then with two months coming in below 8 thousand units produced.

快速查看福特在美国的十月销售情况，电动车销量同比增长9.1%，达到6.8千辆，而他们告诉我们他们将开始更加专注于混合动力车型，但在十月份，混合动力车已售出13.1千辆，同比增长37.9%。然而，与去年十月相比，Mach-E的销量下降了10.6%，为2.7千辆。截至目前，Mach-E已售出31.6千辆，略高于去年同期的31.1千辆。而F-150 Lightning在本月销售了3.7千辆，同比增长52%，截至目前，Lightning已售出15.9千辆，同比增长42%。我想指出在他们的生产表中，你会看到Mach-E的生产在夏季增加到了13.6千辆，但此后有所下降，连续两个月的产量都低于8千辆。

Just a quick blurb from auto news Toyota said it ended October with a 30 day supply of vehicles or 230.3 thousand cars and light trucks in US dealer stock or in transit. Keep in mind this 30 day supply is only for Toyota's US business but we can still take a look at Tesla's global days of supply at 16 and get a little context. They said here Toyota is still struggling with some of the industry's lowest inventories at 30 days of supply Tesla sits at half of that. Yet we have some media outlets talking about Tesla's growing inventory problem implying that Tesla's is too high at 16 days of supply. Thanks for this one Travis. Good to know.

据汽车新闻报道，丰田表示，截止十月底，美国经销商库存或运输途中的车辆存货为30天供应量，即23.03万辆轿车和轻型卡车。请记住，这30天的供应量仅指丰田在美国的业务，但我们仍可以看一下特斯拉全球的供应天数，为16天，以获得一些背景信息。他们表示，丰田仍然在应对行业最低的存货水平，即30天供应量，而特斯拉的存货量仅为其一半。然而，一些媒体机构却谈论特斯拉日益增长的存货问题，暗示特斯拉的16天供应量太高。非常感谢特拉维斯提供这条消息，了解到这一点很有好处。

We need to be watching what happens with crews in the weeks ahead because as we all know it's currently in very hot water. Let's go back in time 2022 a person claiming to be a crew's employee warned regulators in California that crews development approach was not consistent with a safety first culture. Crew's leadership hit information on crashes from a team that worked on critical safety systems. This is exactly what happens when you put profits over people. Many of us know Missy Cummings for her bashing on Tesla but for now she has a new target. She said companies with safety culture problems blame everyone but themselves referring to crews. Crews should wipe out management clean house and bring in some people who know what it means to have a safety culture. I really think that's their only choice going forward.

我们需要密切关注未来几周内乘务人员的动态，因为众所周知，它目前处于非常困境中。让我们回到2022年，一名自称是乘务人员员工的人向加利福尼亚的监管机构发出警告，称乘务公司的开发方法与安全文化不一致。乘务领导层对一个负责关键安全系统的团队隐瞒了有关事故的信息。当你将利润置于人民之上时，就会发生这样的事情。我们许多人都知道米希·卡明斯（Missy Cummings）抨击特斯拉，但现在她有了新的目标。她说，存在安全文化问题的公司总是将责任推到其他人身上，指的就是乘务公司。乘务公司应该彻底清除管理层，引入一些懂得什么是安全文化的人。我真的认为这是他们未来唯一的选择。

This one's pretty comical early this year. Kyle vote crews CEO said the business has grown up in so many ways and reached this rapid scaling phase where we're no longer trying to prove this technology works or even that we can do it inexpensively as they had those endless problems and incidents and accidents. And oh yeah they were also losing hundreds of millions of dollars. All regulatory and governing body eyes are currently on crews and the word on the street is that if crews doesn't clean house and basically start from scratch at least in terms of management it's not going to have a great chance to get its vehicles back on the road.

今年年初，这件事情非常滑稽。凯尔·沃特克鲁斯的首席执行官表示，公司在许多方面都成长了，并且已经达到了快速扩张的阶段，在这个阶段我们不再试图证明这项技术的可行性，甚至不再试图以低成本实现它，因为他们遇到了无尽的问题、事件和事故。噢，对了，他们还亏损了数亿美元。所有的监管机构和管理机构目前都在关注克鲁斯，消息传出来的是，如果克鲁斯不进行大规模重组，至少在管理层方面重新开始，那么它很难有机会让其车辆重新上路。

The first Ford factory to vote on this new deal with the UAW has overwhelmingly voted in favor of the tentative contract agreement. Voting on the Ford deal will continue through November 17th and one of the biggest assembly operations is set to vote on the deal on November 12th. I don't know what type of signal this first factory voting will be for the rest but nonetheless a good start for Ford.

第一家福特工厂对与美国汽车工人联合会的这项新协议进行表决，压倒性地赞成了该临时合同协议。对福特协议的投票将持续到11月17日，其中最大的装配工厂将于11月12日进行投票。我不知道这第一家工厂的表决结果会对其他工厂产生什么样的信号，但对福特来说，这无论如何都是一个良好的开端。

You may recall over the summer we learned that Tesla energy was working to launch a virtual power plant in Puerto Rico using the power walls already there. Drew Baglino said we have over 350 megawatts of power walls in Puerto Rico that could help the grid shortage in Puerto Rico overnight. Now according to Tesla's blog page it looks like registration is currently open. For now participation in the program allows customers to earn $1 for every kilowatt hour their power wall supplies during events. And as Drew Baglino just said Tesla is working with its partners on this project to make it potentially the biggest virtual power plant in the world. As we have 75,000 power wall owners that can now get paid to support the grid. This right here is the future I would love to see.

你可能还记得在夏天的时候，我们得知特斯拉能源正在计划在波多黎各推出一个虚拟电厂，利用已经存在的Powerwall电池。德鲁·巴格里诺表示，我们在波多黎各已经拥有超过350兆瓦的Powerwall电池，可以在一夜之间解决波多黎各电网短缺的问题。根据特斯拉的博客页面，目前看来登记现在已经开放了。眼下参与该项目的客户可以在活动期间，根据Powerwall电池供应的每千瓦时获得1美元的报酬。正如德鲁·巴格里诺刚刚表示的那样，特斯拉正在与他们的合作伙伴一起合作，希望把这个项目打造成全球最大的虚拟电厂。因为现在我们有75,000个Powerwall电池的拥有者可以通过支持电网获取报酬。这正是我所希望看到的未来。

You may have heard Toyota has been spending time and R&D resources on a manual EV prototype. Well Toyota is going even further as now they're also apparently working on an EV prototype that can simulate multiple internal combustion powertrains. They have different programming to limit the torque application based on gas engine power curves, acceleration would be cut at specific times to simulate the automatic transmission shifts. Exactly what all EV drivers want their acceleration to be artificially limited.

你可能已经听说丰田一直在花费时间和研发资源来研制一款手动EV原型车。而现在丰田更进一步，显然他们也正在研发一款可以模拟多种内燃机动力总成的EV原型车。它们具有不同的编程，可以根据汽油发动机功率曲线限制扭矩输出，加速度会在特定时刻被削减以模拟自动变速器的换挡。这正是所有电动汽车驾驶者想要的人为限制加速度的效果。

Just a quick note from yesterday's video on John and Dr. Know it all bringing up that question about will the end to end neural nets find it harder to solve for edge cases. I know a lot of you brought up Tesla simulation and of course that's a great point. Yes Tesla can simulate any of these edge cases. My whole point was I just want to hear Elon and the team talk about some of these situations. Maybe they can add some color or context. Does the simulation have any limitations compared to the real world? Specifically when it comes to end to end neural nets because we've heard Elon say that the difference in photons from one camera to the next does actually make a difference when it comes to the training of the software. So given that the photons in a simulation might be somewhat different than what they see in the real world, what type of impact if any would that actually make.

昨天的视频中，约翰和博士聪明带出了一个问题，即端到端神经网络是否会发现在解决边缘案例时更加困难。我知道你们中有很多人提到了特斯拉的模拟技术，当然这是一个很好的观点。是的，特斯拉可以模拟任何这些边缘案例。我的整个观点是，我只是想听到埃隆和团队谈谈这些情况。也许他们可以增加一些细节或背景信息。相比于真实世界，模拟有哪些局限性呢？特别是当涉及到端到端神经网络时，因为我们听到埃隆说过，从一个相机到另一个相机的光子差异实际上会影响软件的训练。因此，鉴于模拟中的光子可能与他们在真实世界中看到的有所不同，这实际上会造成什么样的影响，如果有的话？

So just to be clear I was not at all trying to argue I think Tesla's gonna have problems solving for edge cases now. It was really just a matter of I would love to get more information on topics like that rather than some of the basics say questions that we always get. You can find me on X linked below. Please like the video if you did. Hope you guys have a wonderful day and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.

所以只是为了明确，我根本没有试图争辩，我认为特斯拉现在可能会在解决边缘情况方面遇到问题。实际上，我只是希望能获得更多关于这类话题的信息，而不是一些我们经常提到的基本问题。你可以在下方找到我的X链接。如果你喜欢这个视频，请给它点赞。希望你们拥有愉快的一天，非常感谢所有支持我的赞助者。