Tesla Stock / Markets Rise, Tesla Sales Drop in California, X Updates

Hey everybody Rob Bauer here and today we're going to be talking about the November FOMC meeting, the results from that and obviously the impact on the stock today. We've also got an update on Q3, Tesla sales in California, China sales as well and a few other items to go through.

大家好，我是Rob Bauer。今天我们将要讨论11月份的FOMC会议，以及会议结果对今天的股市产生的影响。我们还将更新加州和中国市场的特斯拉第三季度销售情况，以及其他一些要点。

Alright, looking at the stock, Tesla up 2.4% today, nice day closing at $205.66. The market's really strong today as well, the NASDAQ finishing up 1.6%, rising about 1% after the FOMC meeting started today. So we'll start off there, obviously that's probably the biggest driver of the results today. But one quick thing before we get in that is Ron Barron commented this morning as he tends to do on Tesla and SpaceX. Never hurts the stock I don't think, of course stuff that we've heard before but he reiterated that Tesla, he views Tesla's valuation as possibly hitting $4 trillion in the future, also noting that SpaceX has the chance to be even bigger. So always good to hear from Ron Barron, he was on market watch this morning to share some of those thoughts. So that may have impacted Tesla a bit but as we can see throughout the day, performance, I think the FOMC meeting a bigger driver.

好的，看看股市情况，特斯拉今日上涨2.4%，收盘价为205.66美元，这是个不错的收盘价。市场今天也非常强劲，纳斯达克指数收盘上涨1.6%，在美联储开会后上涨了约1%。所以我们将从这里开始，显然这可能是今天结果的最大推动力。但在我们深入分析之前，有一件事需要提到，就是鲁恩·巴伦今早对特斯拉和SpaceX发表了评论。我不认为这会对股票产生负面影响，当然，这些都是我们之前听过的话，但他重申认为特斯拉的估值未来可能达到4万亿美元，并且指出SpaceX的潜力可能更大。所以听到来自鲁恩·巴伦的看法总是很好的，他今早在媒体上分享了一些想法。所以这可能对特斯拉产生了一些影响，但从整天的表现来看，我认为美联储开会才是更大的推动力。

So with the FOMC statement that came out a couple hours before market closed, that didn't have as much of an impact as the commentary afterward. As we can see here, not many changes in the language, I know I'm covering that a bit. Here's the old statement from September, here's the new one from today. So they just updated the language here saying, you know, expanding at a solid pace to expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter, referencing the GDP growth that we had seen, the preliminary GDP growth that we had seen earlier. And they also added that job gains have moderated since earlier in the year, but remains strong. Previously, that just said that job gains have slowed in recent months but remains strong. So again, pretty similar language, not anything too major. We added financial to tighter credit conditions, so tighter financial and credit conditions, noted in that second paragraph. So nothing too major.

所以，尽管FOMC声明在市场关闭前几个小时发布，但对市场的影响并不如随后的评论那样大。正如我们在这里所看到的，语言方面没有太多变化，我知道我已经涵盖了一些内容。这是9月份的旧声明，这是今天的新声明。他们只是在这里更新了语言，说我们的经济在第三季度以坚实的速度增长到强劲的速度，这是在参考我们之前看到的初步GDP增长。他们还补充说自今年年初以来，就业增长有所放缓，但仍然强劲。之前只是说就业增长在最近几个月有所放缓，但仍然强劲。所以，可以看出，语言方面相似度非常高，没有太大变化。在第二段中，我们添加了金融条件趋紧这一描述。所以没有太大变化。

Again, mostly what we heard from the call or from the conference afterwards, these were kind of my notes from there. As we expected going into it, I don't think we heard too much news. So I don't think there was one thing that we can go through on pinpoints. Okay, you know, although the market's pretty clearly, you know, rose here at a specific point in time listening to it. I don't think there was a specific moment or specific comment that did this. I think probably just commentary throughout.

再说一次，大部分我们从电话或会议后听到的，这些都是我的笔记。就像我们预期的那样，我不认为我们听到了太多新闻。所以我认为没有一件事可以拿出来详细说。好吧，你知道的，尽管市场在某个特定时间点显然上涨，但我认为没有一个特定的时刻或特定的评论导致了这一点。我认为可能只是一直在评论中提到的。

So looking at the notes here, Powell said that they are not confident yet that they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, but also not confident that we haven't. So again, just continuing to kind of pause right now and see where things go said that they're looking for persistent material changes. They've been pleased with some of the data that they've been seeing so far with inflation figures starting to come down, particularly the core PCE he noted for the third quarter came coming down six tenths of a percent. But he said financial conditions have clearly tightened. We just don't know how persistent that will be. So that's in essence why they have paused. Again, nothing. I don't think too surprising there. Maybe if I had to pick one comment that I could point to you that, you know, read a little bit more, um, dovish for inflation rates or for interest rates would be him saying that they are getting reports from housing that the effect of increased rates could be quite significant and that they're starting to see slowdown in that sector that's been a little bit stickier, particularly with rents, particularly how that gets reported in some of the inflation data. But they he did note pretty clearly here that they're starting to see that change a little bit. So that's probably a positive in terms of expectations. He did say that they're not thinking about rate cuts at all. Pretty standard, you know, language there from him. Haven't made a decision for December. Not difficult to raise again after a long pause. So like we had talked about yesterday, I don't think anything too surprising coming out of that. But nevertheless, the FedWatch tool here from the, uh, from CME group does show expectations for continuation of the pause in December, increasing a little bit. So, you know, 70% previously now up to an 80% expectation for that pause. And then you're kind of seeing a similar shift in future meetings as well in terms of expectations, maybe about a 10% increase in those expectations for pauses or, um, future rate cuts, uh, when those, you know, maybe appropriate. So again, I think mostly just kind of getting through the meeting without any surprises is, is probably welcome news, uh, for the market.

看着这些笔记，鲍威尔表示他们还不确定已经采取了足够严格的立场，但也不确定没有采取。因此，他们现在只是继续观望，看情况的发展，表示他们正在寻找持久性的实质性变化。他们对一些数据感到满意，尤其是核心个人消费支出在第三季度下降了0.6%。但他说金融条件明显收紧，我们不知道这种情况会持续多久。这就是他们停顿的原因。再次强调，没有什么太意外的。也许如果我必须选择一句话来指出，你知道对通胀率或者利率表现得更为温和，那就是他说他们听到房地产行业报告称利率上涨的影响可能相当显著，而且他们开始看到该行业的放缓，这是一个有点困扰的问题，特别是涉及租金，特别是在一些通胀数据中如何报告这一点。但他在这里非常明确地指出他们开始看到这种变化有点积极的一面。所以从预期来看，这可能是个好消息。他确实表示他们目前不考虑降息。对于他而言，这是一个相当标准的说法。他们还没有为12月作出决定。在长时间的停顿之后再次加息并不困难。所以，像我们昨天讨论的那样，我认为没有什么太令人惊讶的消息。然而，从CME集团的FedWatch工具来看，市场对12月停顿的预期有所增加，从之前的70%上升到80%。未来会议的预期也有相似的变化，预计会有10%的增加，以适当时机实施暂停或未来的利率降低。所以我认为，大部分只是在会议中没有出现任何意外对于市场而言可能是个好消息。

All right. So getting into Tesla stuff, we don't have a ton today, but Subaru did announce that they are going to be adopting the North American charging standard or NACS. So they'll be joining the supercharging network in 2025. They also do talk about offering an adapter at that point as well, not that they're a huge EV player, but they have done some development work with Toyota. So shortly following the Toyota announcement, not too surprising to see Subaru join as well. But you know, limited impact on, on that.

好的，现在说说特斯拉的事情，今天我们没有太多消息，但斯巴鲁宣布他们将采用北美充电标准（NACS），并将于2025年加入超级充电网络。他们还提到计划在那时提供一个适配器。虽然斯巴鲁不是一家主要的电动汽车生产商，但他们与丰田有过一些开发工作的合作。因此，在丰田的宣布之后不久，看到斯巴鲁加入也并不令人意外。但对于这个问题的影响有限。

And then just a quick one here, Tesla's increased the price of the solid black paint, particularly for the model Y for some reason, by $500. So previously it was $1,500. They've bumped that up to 2000. This used to be the free base color. So I guess if you had black at that point, welcome news that this is now a more expensive color, but maybe that'll help Tesla's margins a little bit. If they find this is one of the more popular colors, and maybe there's a little bit less pricey elasticity on it, um, could boost things a little bit.

然后这里只是一个简短的消息，特斯拉出于某种原因提高了固体黑色涂料的价格，尤其是对于模型Y，涨价了500美元。以前的价格是1500美元，现在涨到了2000美元。原本这是免费的基础颜色。所以我猜如果你选择黑色涂料，这个消息对你来说是个好消息，因为现在这是一种更昂贵的颜色了，但或许这会帮助特斯拉的利润率有所提升。如果他们发现这是更受欢迎的颜色之一，而且在价格弹性方面相对较小，可能会稍微提升一些销售情况。

And then we also got an interesting video here from Joe Taggmeyer from his Joan Flyover video of Gigataxis today showing the Cybertruck doing some driving around, maybe a little bit of testing kind of seems to be doing something that would be akin to a crab walk that we've seen in vehicles like the Hummer, the EV Hummer. You can kind of see the frame of the vehicle covered it up there, but you can kind of see the frame of the vehicle seems to not be exactly straight as the vehicle's driving forward, which would mean that both of the, um, both the front and the rear axle tires are facing the same direction causing the vehicle to look like that. And that could be referred to as a crab walk. So it's not the most highly angled version of what we've seen with this. So it's a little bit unclear if this is going to be a feature that that Tesla offers with this, but since we know that the rear wheels are capable of doing that, it wouldn't be too surprising to see that be a feature. So maybe Tesla doing a little bit of testing there from Joe's video. So nice to see that.

今天我们这里还有一段来自乔·泰格迈尔（Joe Taggmeyer）的乔·弗莱厄（Joan Flyover）视频，展示了Cybertruck的一些驾驶情况，可能还有一点测试，看起来有点像我们在悍马、悍马EV等车辆上见过的螃蟹走路的动作。您可以在视频中看到车辆的车架被遮挡住了，但是车辆的车架似乎不是完全笔直，也就是说，前后轴的轮胎朝着同一方向，使得车辆看起来像那样。这可以称为螃蟹走路。所以这不是我们以前看到的最大角度的版本。所以目前还不太清楚特斯拉是否会提供这个功能，但是我们知道后轮是有这个能力的，所以看到它成为一个功能也不会太让人惊讶。所以也许特斯拉正在进行一些测试，从乔的视频中可以看出。很高兴能看到这个。

And then we also got some news once that goes away that Tesla has been granted 100% for an ownership in Malaysia, as well as Starlink at the same time. So good news for Tesla there. We talked maybe a couple months ago now about Tesla setting up that entity. So they have just now confirmed that they'll have 100% for an ownership of that. So good news there for Tesla in Malaysia.

接着我们还得到了一些消息，特斯拉已经获得了马来西亚的100%所有权，同时也获得了Starlink的所有权。对特斯拉来说，这是个好消息。几个月前我们讨论过特斯拉设立这个实体的事。现在他们确认了他们将拥有100%的所有权，这对特斯拉在马来西亚来说是个好消息。

All right, then we've also got updated Q three California EV sales or total automotive sales as well. But particularly interesting here, if we look at Tesla's third quarter sales, that's this column here, you can ignore the highlighting. That's something that they put on the document. But for Tesla in the third quarter, 60,000 vehicles sold according to data from Experian for Q two, though, this was actually 69,000. So Q two was the first time Tesla had surpassed Toyota to become the highest volume manufacturer or the highest volume seller in California. Unfortunately, we saw that drop down this quarter. You can see Toyota here at 70,000 Tesla at 60,000. So would have loved to have seen that continue. Tesla's market share figure actually dropped a little bit too. If we look at the year to date number, so in Q two, that was 13.6% versus the annual or sorry, versus the US total at 4.3. And then here, you can see Tesla down at 13 and a half percent again, the total US figure holding study there. So a little bit disappointing of a quarter there. Again, just one state here for California, a big, big portion of Tesla sales though, as we can see. And we saw about a 13% decline there, quarter over quarter. Now we know Tesla had downtime. We don't know how impactful that was to Fremont, which would probably be the most relevant for Tesla sales in California, obviously. We know there was downtime at Kiga Texas though. So Model Y production from there certainly could have played a role in this figure. But most of the downtime seem to be related to things like Project Thailand and at Kiga Texas. We'll see hopefully this will bounce back a little bit more in Q4 when we have hopefully less of an impact of those things. Maybe give us a little bit clearer picture and fingers crossed. Hopefully Tesla can jump back above Toyota for that top spot in California.

好的，接下来我们还有更新的第三季度加州电动汽车销售或整体汽车销售数据。但特别有趣的是，如果我们看特斯拉的第三季度销售数据，就是这一列，在这里你可以忽略高亮显示的部分，那是他们在文件中添加的。但对于特斯拉来说，第三季度售出了6万辆汽车，根据Experian的数据，而在第二季度，实际销售量为6.9万辆。所以第二季度是特斯拉首次超过丰田成为加州最大销量制造商或最大销量卖家。不幸的是，这一季度我们看到销量下降了。你可以看到丰田的销量为7万辆，特斯拉则为6万辆。希望能够持续增长。特斯拉的市场份额也稍微下降了一点。如果我们看年度数据，第二季度为13.6%，而美国总体为4.3%。而在这里，特斯拉的份额为13.5%，而美国总体数字还是相对稳定的。这一季度有点令人失望。虽然只是加州的一个州，但特斯拉的销售占据了很大一部分，正如我们所看到的。我们看到季度销量环比下降了约13%。现在我们知道特斯拉暂停了产能。我们不知道这对弗里蒙特的影响有多大，弗里蒙特对特斯拉在加州的销售显然是最相关的。不过我们知道德克萨斯的基加工厂也暂停了产能。因此，德克萨斯基加工厂的Model Y生产肯定对这个数据起了一定作用。但大部分停工似乎与泰国项目和德克萨斯基加工厂相关。希望在第四季度，当这些因素的影响减轻时，销量能够有所反弹。也希望特斯拉能够重新超过丰田，占据加州的首位。

And then meant to cover this yesterday, but we did get updated China insured vehicle numbers for the week. So October 23 through 29th, 10,800 vehicles registered a nice increase from the prior weeks, as we can see in the chart, getting back to a more normal type of range for Tesla at this point in the quarter. And of course, we're now starting to see Highland Model 3s delivered. It was about 2300 of these that were highland. So you can kind of see pretty consistent figures there for just Model Y around that 8,000 level now starting to get Highland added in. And I would expect that as we get next week's data, that will increase again. So exciting to see those begin.

然后昨天本来打算报告这个消息，但是我们确实拿到了中国上周的保险车辆数量更新数据。所以从10月23日到29日，有10,800辆车进行了登记，较前几周有较大增长，可以在图表中看到，这基本回到了特斯拉本季度中的正常水平。当然，我们现在开始看到高地版Model 3正在交付。其中大约有2300辆是高地版。所以可以看到现在仅Model Y的数据非常稳定，大约在8000的水平上开始添加高地版。我预计随着下周的数据出来，这个数字还会再次增加。所以看到这些车开始交付是令人兴奋的。

And then just a quick note for anyone that happens to be in Illinois, Illinois has now opened a program for EV rebates. So it's up to you, or I guess it is a $4,000 rebate for EVs, $1,500 rebate for electric motorcycles. There is $12 million of funding for this. So only 3,000 rebates. It sounds like they are kind of taking these on a first come first serve basis. They do say that there will be a priority given to low income purchasers if this starts to run low. So I'm not sure exactly how they handle that priority. It's not 100% clear. Outside of that, though, there don't seem to be any really relevant restrictions that would exclude Tesla vehicles. So nice boost there for Illinois.

然后，只是对于那些碰巧在伊利诺伊州的人，伊利诺伊州现已开放了一个电动汽车退款计划。所以你可以选择，或者说，购买电动汽车可以获得4,000美元的退款，购买电动摩托车可以获得1,500美元的退款。这个计划共有1,200万美元的资金，所以只有3,000个退款名额。听起来他们好像是按照先到先得的原则处理这些退款。但他们确实表示，如果退款名额开始不足，低收入购买者将被优先考虑。不过，我不太确定他们如何处理这个优先权，这并不完全清楚。除此之外，似乎没有任何真正相关的限制，会排除特斯拉车型。因此，这对伊利诺伊州来说是一个不错的推动。

And then the last couple of things just wanted to highlight a transcript that has been posted by the verge of the recent X all hands meeting. So we've seen a couple of paragraphs about that come out so far talking about some different features that X would add. But really interesting. I actually linked this in the show notes today because I think it was just a great read. And it's not all that relevant to Tesla. I've highlighted here one piece that is they're talking about the Twitter for you or sorry for the X for you feed being determined less on heuristics more off of neural networks, similar to what Tesla has done with self driving. Elon said that they are now calling this version rodeo. So just kind of interesting fun fact there.

然后最后要强调一下"The Verge"最近发布的一份"X全员大会"的记录。迄今为止，我们已经看到了关于此的一些段落，谈论了一些X将添加的不同功能。但真的很有趣。我今天在节目注释中提供了链接，因为我认为这是一篇很棒的阅读材料。它与特斯拉并不完全相关。在这里，我强调了一个片段，他们在谈论关于你的X时间线，它的决定基于神经网络，而不是启发式算法，这跟特斯拉的自动驾驶有些相似。埃隆说他们现在将这个版本称为“Rodeo”，这只是一个有趣的小事实。

So that was really only the kind of the only Tesla related stuff. But again, I would just recommend reading through this. It gives a lot of insight into what's going on at X. It does a way better job of that than any media coverage or anything that you might actually see on X itself. It just gives a really robust and holistic view of what they've accomplished so far and where they're going, which although may not be directly relevant to Tesla, we have seen the impact that that relationship can have. So I still think important to understand.

所以那真的只是关于特斯拉的东西。但再次，我建议你阅读一下这篇文章。它提供了很多关于X公司的见解。它比任何媒体报道或你在X本身看到的任何东西都更好地展示了他们迄今为止取得的成就以及未来的发展方向，尽管这可能与特斯拉直接相关性不大，但我们已经看到它们之间可能产生的影响。所以我仍然认为理解这个很重要。

And then this I just thought was an interesting note to highlight. And I talked about how someone had asked her, you know, what is one thing that people at X should stop doing next year? What is one thing they should start? She said something to stop is kind of just stop paying attention to the noise, right? Stop paying attention to what people around you are saying about the company and things like that, which you could interpret as like, you know, trying to put a filter there, but really just trying to avoid the noise, keep your head down focused on what the team is building. They can see it internally. They can understand what is actually happening. And there's so much there to be excited about. So really just focusing on that. And I think that is, you know, it's been a difficult period, I think with Tesla stock. And although this isn't talking about that specifically, I just think it's a good thing to remember like in general, try to ignore the noise a little bit, try to focus on, you know, long term vision where things are heading long term. And there's a lot there to still be excited about with the company. So again, would recommend reading that.

接着，我觉得这一点很有趣，想特别提一下。我谈到有人问她，你知道，在明年人们在公司X应该停止做什么？有什么人们应该开始做的事情？她说，停止做的一件事就是不要再关注噪音，对周围人对公司的言论之类的不要太在意，你可以理解为在设立一个过滤器，但实际上是试着避免那些噪音，将注意力放在团队正在建设的事情上。他们可以看到内部情况，他们可以理解实际发生的事情。公司有很多令人兴奋的事情。所以真正专注于那些事情上。我觉得，对于特斯拉的股票来说，这段时间可能很困难。虽然这段话没有明确指出特斯拉的情况，但我觉得它提醒我们普遍情况下，要尽量忽略那些噪音，集中精力看长远愿景，注意公司未来的发展方向。公司仍然有很多令人兴奋的事情。所以再次推荐阅读这篇文章。

And then lastly, somebody noticed on X that X AI has filed a couple of trademarks for a couple of presumed products. One is called Grock and one is called prompt ID. So seeing some progress there, obviously just very early stage stuff from X AI, but hopefully we'll hear more about that soon.

最后，有人在X上注意到X人工智能已经为几个可能的产品申请了几项商标。一个称为Grock，另一个称为Prompt ID。所以从X人工智能的一些进展来看，显然还处于非常早期的阶段，但希望不久后能听到更多相关消息。

All right, that'll wrap it up for today then. So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Thursday, November 2 episode of Tesla daily. Thank you.

好的，今天就到这里吧。一如既往地，谢谢大家的聆听。请确保订阅并开启通知。您也可以在X平台上找到我，那是特斯拉播客节目。我们明天再见，届时会播出特斯拉每日新闻的11月2日星期四的一集。谢谢。