Tesla’s Next Billion Dollar Business, Ford Delays Major EV Investment

Hey everybody Rob Mayor here and today actually a pretty big news day kind of out of nowhere we seem to have a new business line popping up for Tesla. We also have pretty major announcements from Ford from their earnings call, Hertz give an interesting update on Tesla as well and a few other items alongside those.

大家好，我是Rob Mayor，今天是一个相当重要的新闻日，似乎突然间出现了一条特斯拉的新业务线。我们还有来自福特公司财报电话会议的重大公告，赫兹也对特斯拉进行了有趣的更新，并且还有一些其他相关内容。

Alright looking at the stock another tough day today Tesla down 3.14% closing at $205.76. The NASDAQ also another challenging day down one and three quarters percent so a little bit better than what we had seen yesterday but it's pretty rare that we get those that degree of negative days back to back. So looking at the NASDAQ this is actually the worst two-day performance for the NASDAQ in this year. The last time it was this poor was December 16th of 2022. So two-day stretch here of really tough results obviously alongside earnings reports from a lot of different companies this week but Tesla hanging in there I think despite the performance you know relative to Tesla's beta over the last couple of days to the NASDAQ. So we'll see after hours a little bit of better results certainly yesterday we saw that trending down leading into today. Right now we're up 1% after hours after what seemed like it was going to continue so hopefully it'll bring a little bit better news tomorrow.

好的，看着股市情况，特斯拉今天再度遭遇艰难，下跌了3.14%，收盘价为205.76美元。纳斯达克也又度过了一个具有挑战性的一天，下跌了1.75%，稍微比昨天好一些，但是连续出现如此程度的负面日子还是相当罕见的。因此，从纳斯达克的情况来看，这是今年表现最差的两天。上一次情况如此恶劣还是在2022年12月16日。所以，这里有一个连续两天的时间段，结果真的是非常艰难的，当然，这一周还有很多不同公司的财报公布，特斯拉在这其中表现还不错，相对于过去几天纳斯达克的贝塔值来看。所以我们会看到盘后交易中，稍微有一点好的结果，昨天我们就看到了这种趋势，继续到今天。现在盘后交易中，我们的涨幅为1%，好像会继续上涨，希望明天能带来一些更好的消息。

This morning we did have the GDP report the preliminary release for the third quarter and real GDP was up 4.9% with this preliminary report so that will be revised. Real GDP is supposedly inflation adjusted. So this is a pretty strong number that is the highest GDP increase since 2021 which I imagine those comps were boosted by the comparisons they were boosted by COVID and the year prior. So without that's just my guess without looking but strong result there I kind of expected that maybe the performance here would be due to a higher GDP results leading to you know a little bit more room to increase rates but according to the CME Group FedWatch tool that's not been the case at least for today it looks like expectations we're just kind of looking out a few months here in January expectations for a pause have actually continued to increase so that doesn't seem to be what's going on at least in terms of today but obviously a lot going on in the market elsewhere.

今天早上，我们发布了第三季度的国内生产总值（GDP）初步数据报告，实际GDP增长了4.9%，这个初步报告将会进行修订。实际GDP据说已调整为通货膨胀。因此，这是一个相当强劲的数字，是自2021年以来最高的GDP增长，我想这些增长是由于COVID-19及去年的比较影响。所以这只是我猜测，没有具体参考。我本以为这里的表现可能是由于更高的GDP结果导致了一些加息的空间，但根据CME Group FedWatch工具显示，至少在今天看来，预期是在接下来的几个月里会出现暂停加息的情况，并且这种预期实际上还在不断增加。所以至少在今天看来，情况似乎不是这样的，但显然市场上其他方面还有很多事情要发生。

So interesting to see that but getting into Tesla specific news very interesting update again kind of out of nowhere today from BP they announced that they are going to be acquiring at 100 million dollars of fast charging hardware units from Tesla. So this is going to be the V4 supercharging hardware this will be BP branded as we can see in the press release so it'll be kind of interesting that we're seeing these Tesla superchargers effectively under BP branding that BP is acquiring and then deploying from Tesla they say in the press release that the introduction of Tesla's charges to the BP pulse network is the first time the hardware will be purchased from an independent for an independent EV charging network. So said another way first time Tesla is letting other people purchase and install and manage superchargers. So with this release they also say that of course these will have the output of 250 kilowatts hopefully we see that increase over time as again these look like V4 hardware which shouldn't be surprising. They also say this will be including the magic dock so it's going to have the North American charging standard or NACS and the adapter kind of built into the charging connector to allow for CCS charging as well. Now I would imagine that this probably won't be super long lived at least here in North America of course because I think NACS is going to become predominant hopefully a single standard over time but for now they are planning to move forward with that with that adapter built in. They also say that to further improve the user experience the Tesla chargers will support the use of plug-and-charge protocol which simplifies and automates payments so hopefully this means it'll be as simple as right now plugging into a Tesla supercharger where it'll use the vehicle to establish that connection and handle things like billing and initiating the charge. They say that as is Tesla's current policy third-party operated ultra-fast chargers meeting Tesla's reliability and functionality requirements are featured in Tesla's vehicle UI and apps and BP Pulse expects to uphold those requirements on its network. So essentially as long as BP can meet Tesla standards it sounds like these should show up when we're doing things like navigating and looking perhaps at different charger options in things like the Tesla mobile app.

很有趣看到这一点，但最近从BP传来了令人非常意外的消息，他们宣布将以1亿美元从特斯拉收购快速充电硬件设备。所以这将是V4超级充电硬件，我们可以在新闻稿中看到，它们将带有BP品牌，所以我们看到了特斯拉超级充电器在BP品牌下的部署，这将会很有趣。他们在新闻稿中表示，特斯拉的充电设备首次由独立的电动车充电网络购买。换句话说，这是特斯拉首次让其他人购买、安装和管理超级充电器。在这个声明中，他们还表示，这些充电器的输出将达到250千瓦，希望随着时间的推移能够增加，这并不奇怪，因为看起来像V4硬件。他们还表示，这将包括魔术对接器，它将配有北美的充电标准(NACS)，并且充电器连接器内置了适配器，可以支持CCS充电。现在我想，至少在北美地区，它可能不会存在太长时间，因为我认为NACS将逐渐成为主导，希望最终能够成为一个统一的标准，但目前他们计划继续使用这个内置适配器。他们还表示，为了进一步改善用户体验，特斯拉充电器将支持使用插充付协议，简化和自动化支付过程，希望这意味着它将像目前插入特斯拉超级充电器一样简单，它将使用车辆建立连接并处理账单和启动充电等事宜。他们说，按照特斯拉目前的政策，满足特斯拉可靠性和功能要求的第三方运营的超快充电器将出现在特斯拉车辆的用户界面和应用程序中，BP Pulse希望在其网络上继续遵守这些要求。因此，只要BP能够达到特斯拉的标准，听起来当我们在进行导航或查看特斯拉移动应用程序中的不同充电器选项时，这些充电器应该会显示出来。

So that'll be really nice. I don't know how much hardware exactly 100 million dollars is going to buy, they don't give a number of charging stations that they plan on deploying here but that's a significant investment and we'll come back to that quote there in a second. They said in February that they're going to be investing 1 billion dollars just in America's EV charging infrastructure by 2030 so what we're seeing here with this 100 million dollar investment could just be you know sort of stage one of a multi-stage investment from BP just with Tesla just in the US.

这将是非常好的。我不知道一亿美元可以购买多少硬件，他们没有给出在这里计划部署的充电站数量，但这是一笔重要的投资，我们稍后会回到这个报价。他们在二月份表示，到2030年他们将在美国的电动汽车充电基础设施上投资10亿美元，所以我们现在看到的这个1亿美元的投资可能只是BP与特斯拉在美国的多阶段投资中的第一阶段。

So over time you know we could see other companies join this do similar things you know that we've clearly seen the dominoes fall quickly for the adoption of the North American charging standard. We could see similar dominoes fall quickly quickly with fueling companies wanting to follow BP and not get left behind with the deployment of this charging infrastructure.

随着时间的推移，我们可能会看到其他公司加入其中，采取类似的举措。我们已经明显看到，北美充电标准的采用迅速引发了其他公司效仿的局面。随着BP推出充电基础设施的部署，我们可能会迅速看到燃料公司也希望跟上步伐，不被落在后面。

So it could come a situation pretty quickly where Tesla is supply constrained on producing this hardware presumably Tesla will be the preferred partner here. We've talked before with the new energy vehicle or the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure funding that Tesla's cost for those their bids on those projects are well below other competitors trying to install projects as well. Looks like roughly 50% probably even a little bit more than that.

因此，在生产这种硬件方面，很快就可能出现特斯拉供应受限的情况，预计特斯拉将成为首选合作伙伴。我们之前曾谈过与新能源汽车或国家电动汽车基础设施资助相关的问题，特斯拉在这些项目的投标成本明显低于其他竞争对手。大约有50%左右，甚至可能更多。

So if Tesla is able to supply this at scale and at a much cheaper cost than competition this could be actually a very significant potentially multi-billion dollar business for Tesla as kind of crazy as that sounds maybe over you know multiple years but again this kind of just looks like a first stage.

所以，如果特斯拉能够大规模供应并且价格比竞争对手便宜得多，这对于特斯拉来说实际上可能是一个非常重要且潜力巨大的业务，也许在多年的时间里能创造数十亿美元的收入，听起来有些疯狂，但这似乎只是第一阶段。

So interesting to see this of course the rest of the relationship I would imagine that BP is positioning themselves to be able to you know profit off of the sale of the electricity otherwise it probably wouldn't make a ton of sense for them to make the investment so I don't expect outside of any potential hardware margins that Tesla would stand to benefit from this maybe they build something into the contract where they get a little bit of it which would be awesome but it's not something that I would have maybe huge financial projections for again outside of hopefully at least a little bit of margin on that hardware hardware sale because again Tesla's probably going to be supply constrained here and Tesla can deploy these stations themselves too so integrating this with BP there's got to be at least some incentive to do that which I think Martin Viega Tesla's head of IR touched on today on X he said this is a big big deal ice car drivers will get to see fast chargers wherever they refuel at BP owned stations which is great for EV transition on top of that more fast chargers for EV owners it's such a win-win so fully agree with that and the points is well made about you know when you're driving a nice vehicle and you're filling up at a BP station if you're seeing constantly people being able to charge their their electric vehicles you lose a lot of that range anxiety that maybe exists before you're willing to make that leap into an EV so exciting to see that.

非常有趣能看到这样的情况，我想BP定位自己是为了能够从电力销售中获利，否则他们投资可能就没有太大意义。所以，除了潜在的硬件利润之外，我并不指望特斯拉能从中获益，也许他们在合同中会纳入一点利润，这将是很棒的，不过除了希望至少获得一点利润之外，我对此并没有太大的财务预期，因为特斯拉在这方面可能会受到供应限制，而且特斯拉也可以自己部署这些充电站，所以与BP整合肯定还有一些激励措施，这也是特斯拉投资者关系主管Martin Viega今天在X上提到的，他说这是一笔很大的交易，汽车司机将能够在BP旗下的加油站看到快速充电器，这对电动汽车的过渡非常有利，同时也为电动车主提供了更多的快速充电器，这是双赢的局面，我完全同意这一观点，而且当你驾驶一辆高档车，在BP加油站加油的时候，如果经常看到人们能够给他们的电动车充电，那么之前由于续航焦虑而不愿意购买电动车的问题也会大大减少，所以看到这一切真的很令人兴奋。

And then also mention they mentioned here that as part of the that a national electric vehicle infrastructure funding when we've looked at those projects BP is actually one of those other companies that is getting funding so although Tesla is somewhat limited in terms of the maximum amount of funding that they can get in each state some of them have limits on 25% of their budget can go to one company with some of that funding then going to BP and BP then paying Tesla for the hardware that I wouldn't say necessarily like circumvents that rule but it does mean that Tesla's able to reap the benefit potentially from those other companies and the funding that they were being granted through this through this project so again that's sort of something that will be deployed over the next five years and it should be pretty significant over times small small start initially in the few states that we've talked about so far but that will grow to be pretty significant over time.

并且还提到他们在这里提到，作为全国电动汽车基础设施资金的一部分，当我们研究这些项目时，英国石油公司（BP）实际上是那些获得资金的其他公司之一，所以尽管特斯拉在每个州所能获得的最大资金有所限制，其中一些州的预算限制了25%的预算可以用于一家公司，其中一些资金则流向BP，BP再向特斯拉支付硬件费用，我不会说是绕过了那个规则，但它确实意味着特斯拉有可能从那些其他公司和他们通过这个项目获得的资金中获益，所以再次强调，这将在未来五年内得到部署，并且随着时间的推移将变得非常重要，最初在我们目前所讨论的几个州只是小规模的开始，但随着时间的推移将变得非常重要。

So then just quickly looking at uh quote here from Tesla so Rebecca Tenuchi who we frequently hear from she presented at Investor Day relating to these sort of charging updates she said that selling our fast charging hardware is a new step for us and one we're looking to expand in support of Tesla's mission so again a hundred million dollars here nothing small in terms of Tesla's in terms of Tesla's overall revenue it's it's a small chunk though but should be something that grows over time and hopefully just one of again future dominoes that we'll see fall so good for BP on that and again we'll continue to keep an eye out and see if another company wants to follow quickly.

然后我们快速看一下特斯拉的一段引述，这是来自我们经常听到的Rebecca Tenuchi在投资者日上的演讲，涉及这些充电更新。她表示，销售我们的快速充电硬件是我们的一个新举措，我们希望在支持特斯拉的使命方面进行扩张。因此，在特斯拉整体收入方面，一亿美元的收入并不算小數目，但在今后的时间里应该会有所增长，希望这只是未来连锁反应的一个好的开端。BP在这个方面做得很好，我们将继续关注，看看是否还有其他公司会迅速跟进。

All right, next we've got confirmation here from Tesla on their Waybo account that deliveries of the new Highland Model 3 have commenced in China. So, of course, we have seen over the last few days, these start out in Europe, China now beginning deliveries as well, so exciting to see that when we see insured vehicle numbers for this next week. Hopefully, we see a little bit of a bump there with these sort of being unleashed. Although I would keep my expectations lower for that first week. And then you know, hopefully, in the coming weeks, we'll continue to see that Model 3 start to contribute more significantly. So good to see that.

好的，接下来我们在特斯拉的Waybo账户上得到了确认，新的Highland Model 3已经开始在中国交付了。因此，在过去的几天里，我们已经看到了这一交付开始在欧洲，中国也在开始交付，所以看到这一下周我们看到的保险车辆数量，实在是令人兴奋。希望这个新一批交付能够给这个数字带来一点提升。尽管我认为在第一周保持较低的期望是合理的。然后希望在接下来的几周里，我们将继续看到Model 3的重要贡献。因此，看到这一消息是好事。

And then somewhat relatedly, Green the only on X who often finds hidden details in Tesla's firmware has said that there are going to be two versions of the refresh Model 3 base and sport. He says that the sport version will have different front seats with bolstered side support and headrest. And the refresh 3 will have different rear bench seat the middle seat will have a headrest. So you can see the comparison photo here easy to look and see the old one with the stocks also the dash and just notice some of the comparisons between the two there's the headrest that he is talking about in terms of the sport seats. I'm not sure that we have a comparison photo of those but we do know from previous information that there are differences between the rear wheel drive version and the all-wheel drive version I think speaker count is among those things and it sounds like some differences with the seats potentially as well. And then he also noticed a little bit of a different update to the manual door release hatch or door release in the rear of the Model 3. And then also says that the Model S and X are getting the ambient or interior led lighting that we have seen in the Highland Model 3 and the updated Model Y in China so that's coming soon not a Tesla app also says their sources have confirmed that. And they say that the sort of upcoming mini refresh that would do that for the S and the X would also include the front bumper camera which the jury is still out on of course we've seen that pop up in the Highland renderings or the Highland renders on the web pages when that first released and then they kind of removed them. So still a little bit unclear I think Tesla still figuring that out but sounds like that could be coming soon for the S and the X. And then what we're seeing here is some again a render for the Cybertruck that is starting to show up now in the firmware so not too much to make from that I don't think but kind of a cool look and a nice milestone to see that start to show up ahead of deliveries.

然后与此相关的是，经常在特斯拉的固件中发现隐藏细节的Green表示，刷新版Model 3将会有两个版本，基础版和运动版。他表示，运动版将配备具有加强侧支撑和头枕的不同前排座椅。而刷新版Model 3的后排座椅也将有所不同，中间座椅会配备头枕。所以你可以在这里看到比较照片，很容易看到旧款车型和备货情况之间的比较，同时还可以留意一下这两者之间的一些区别，比如他所说的运动座椅中的头枕。我不确定是否有关于这些座椅的比较照片，但我们之前的信息显示后驱版本和四驱版本之间确实存在差异，我认为扬声器数量可能是其中之一，座椅也可能存在一些差异。此外，他还注意到了Model 3后部人工门释放装置的一点变化。此外，他还表示，Model S和Model X将会加入被我们在高地版Model 3和中国更新版Model Y中看到的环境或内部LED灯光，这个功能即将推出，特斯拉应用程序中也有相关消息证实了这一点。同时他们表示，即将到来的S和X的小幅刷新还将加入前保险杠摄像头，当然，这个问题尚未定论，因为我们在当初发布时在网页上的高地渲染图中看到过这一特点，但后来又去掉了。所以现在还不太清楚，我认为特斯拉仍在摸索，但听起来S和X可能很快就会加入这一功能。此外，我们在这里看到的是Cybertruck的渲染图开始出现在固件中，因此我认为还无法从中得出太多信息，但这是一个很酷的外观，也是提前交付的一个重要里程碑。

All right next we are getting into a few Ford updates.

好的，接下来我们要谈一下一些关于福特汽车的更新。

So we continue to have a pretty significant amount of industry-wide news this week, this time from Ford.

所以这周我们继续有一些相当重要的整个行业的消息，这次是来自福特公司。

Just an update from UAW they posted late last night that their national negotiators reached a tentative agreement with Ford.

来自UAW的最新消息，他们在昨晚晚些时候发布了一则公告，他们的全国谈判代表与福特达成了初步协议。

So we talked about that yesterday but that has now been announced by the UAW, of course, that will still need to be finalized and ratified by the UAW so we'll keep it out for that but again those dominoes will probably fall pretty quickly.

所以，我们昨天谈过这个问题，但是美国汽车工人联合会（UAW）已经宣布了这个消息，当然，它仍然需要得到UAW的最终确认和批准，所以我们将继续关注这个问题，但是可以预料这些连锁反应会相当迅速。

And then Ford released their earnings today so just want to take a quick look at a few things there and some of their comments on the earnings call here we can see their financial results.

然后福特今天发布了他们的收益报告，所以我只想快速看一下一些关键信息，并了解他们在收益电话会议中对此的评论，这里我们可以看到他们的财务结果。

So these were a little bit below expectations particularly in terms of earnings, I think their stock is down about 5% after hours at least it was when I last checked.

因此，这些成绩稍微低于预期，尤其是在盈利方面。我认为他们的股价在盘后交易时下跌了约5%，至少在我最后查看时是这样。

Most interestingly for us though is taking a look at the EV business.

最让我们感兴趣的是观察电动汽车行业。

So as we know Ford one of the very few that separates this out we can actually see their profitability.

正如我们所了解的，福特是为数不多能够将这一点明确分开的公司之一，我们可以清楚地看到他们的盈利能力。

So far, year to date they've lost 3.1 billion dollars in earnings before interest in taxes from the EV portion of the business at a negative 73% e-bit margin.

截至目前，他们公司的电动汽车业务在利息和税收之前的收益亏损为31亿美元，e-bit利润率为负73%。

So continues to be tough profitability-wise here in a little bit more detail we can see the quarterly results.

从盈利角度来看，情况仍然很困难。更详细地说，我们可以看到季度的业绩结果。

So as we previously knew unit sales for the third quarter were up very marginally remember there was an impact this quarter from downtime for the F-150 Lightning that's going to impact all these buckets but revenue also basically flat quarter of a quarter e-bit loss increasing so again driving that to 3.1 billion dollars here to date but 1.3 billion dollar loss specifically in Q3 on 1.8 billion dollars in revenue obviously not very strong.

正如我们之前所知，第三季度的销售额微不足道地增长，记住这个季度由于F-150 Lightning的停产而受到影响，这将影响到所有这些方面，但收入基本上与上一季度持平，经营利润亏损增加，因此迄今为止达到31亿美元，但第三季度亏损13亿美元，收入18亿美元，显然不是很强势。

And specifically in Q3 the e-bit margin negative 76 percent so losing huge amounts of money here of course that is to be expected somewhat as they ramp up production and again this is going to be impacted particularly this quarter by that downtime that they had on the F-150 Lightning.

具体来说，在第三季度，利润率为负76％，因此在这里亏损了大量的资金。当然，这在一定程度上是可以预料的，因为他们在增加产量，而且这个季度尤其受到F-150 Lightning车型停工所影响。

The questions is can they kind of get over this hump where they're losing money and start to make this at least less significant in terms of the losses and eventually flip that into profitability.

问题是，他们能否克服这个难关，从亏损中开始使其至少变得不那么重要，并最终转化为盈利。

I think they've said in 2026 they're looking for low single-digit EV margins so e-bit e-bit EV margins.

我认为他们在2026年表示，他们正在寻找低个位数的电动汽车边际利润，即e-bit e-bit电动汽车边际利润。

So. A long way to go for them to get there, they did say in terms of the overall business. Just real quick, that because of the UAW strike, they have not withdrawn their guidance for 2023 for the fiscal year. I think GM did the same, so that probably impacting things today as well.

所以，就整体业务来说，他们还有很长的路要走才能达到目标。但是只是很快提醒一下，由于UAW罢工的原因，他们并没有撤回对2023财年的指导意见。我想通用汽车也是如此，所以这可能也影响了今天的情况。

But more interestingly for us, they provided updates on their earnings call about their EV plans. So their CFO said that Ford is going to be postponing about 12 billion dollars in plan spending on manufacturing capacity for EVs, including a second planned battery factory in Kentucky. He did note that their blue city, their blue oval city manufacturing campus in Tennessee is going to continue as planned, so they are still going to be making investments but delaying a significant portion of it here and saying "the customer is going to decide what the volumes are Ford is able to balance production of gas, hybrid, and electric vehicles to match the speed of EV adoption in a way that others can't," end quote.

更有趣的是，他们在财报电话会议中提供了有关他们电动汽车计划的更新。因此，他们的首席财务官表示，福特将推迟约120亿美元的制造容量计划支出，其中包括在肯塔基州计划中的第二座电池工厂。他指出，他们在田纳西州的蓝色椭圆城制造园区将按计划继续运营，因此他们仍然会进行投资，但会推迟其中的重要部分，并表示“客户将决定福特能够平衡汽油、混合动力和电动汽​​车的生产量，以匹配电动汽车采用速度，这是其他公司所不能做到的”。

So you could have copied and pasted this into GM's earnings, this is almost exactly what they had to say. I guess they both feel that they are able to do this in a way that others can't, but again, as we had talked about, with flexibility comes opportunity cost in terms of real costs, actually, so opportunity costs.

所以你可以将这个复制粘贴到通用汽车的收入报告中，这几乎是他们所要表达的内容。我想他们两家公司都认为他们能够以一种其他人无法做到的方式来操作，但正如我们之前所讨论的那样，灵活性带来了实际成本方面的机会成本，也就是实际成本。

And I think real costs, uh, no, you can't just have flexibility at the cost of nothing, uh, with manufacturing. So, you know, they're trying to, I think, spin this as positively as possible, but looks like pretty significant slowdowns in EV plans for GM, for Ford, and for some others. Hyundai kind of going the other way, but for the most part, significant delays.

我认为真正的成本不能被轻视，制造业不能仅仅追求灵活性而忽略成本。所以，他们试图以最积极的方式来包装，但是通用汽车、福特和其他一些公司的电动汽车计划看起来出现了相当大的放缓。现代汽车有些相反，但总体而言，延迟还是相当明显。

While they're also said that, quote, "we're not moving away from our second-generation EV products, we are though looking at the pace of capacity that we're putting in place. We are going to push out some of that investment," end quote.

虽然他们也表示：“我们并不会放弃我们的第二代电动车产品，但我们正在考虑我们正在建立的产能速度。我们将推迟一部分投资。”

So, you know, a story that has continued to repeat day after day after day after day over the last few weeks, delayed investments, less aggressive plans for EVs from automakers kind of across the board. And it's not like we haven't seen that sort of similar conversation from Tesla, obviously. Tesla has also slowed down their plans a little bit too per the Q3 report and earnings call.

在过去的几周里，有一个故事一直在不停地重复，就是投资推迟、汽车制造商普遍对电动车的计划变得不那么积极。当然，并不是说我们没有听到过特斯拉类似的对话。根据第三季度报告和盈利电话会议，特斯拉也稍微放缓了他们的计划。

But we're talking about things that are very different in terms of context. These companies are slowing down their plans before they're even at a place where their business is starting to even become profitable. They haven't even achieved that type of scale yet. Tesla is slowing down because they just want to continue to be free cash flow positive on their already significantly profitable, significantly scaled business.

但是我们在谈论的是背景条件非常不同的事情。这些公司在业务开始盈利之前就放缓了计划。他们甚至还没有达到那种规模。特斯拉之所以放慢了脚步，是因为他们只是希望继续在已经非常有利可图、显著扩大规模的业务上保持自由现金流的正向增长。

And the longer that that disparity exists, the more that benefits Tesla because Tesla's going to continue to have positive free cash flow. These others are going to continue to have negative free cash flow because they're not yet to scale. The longer that you go in that sort of an environment, you know, Tesla's going to continue to make these investments with that free cash flow. Others aren't going to have that luxury and it's just going to widen that gap.

随着这种差距的存在时间越长，特斯拉将受益更多，因为特斯拉将继续拥有正面的自由现金流。而其他公司将继续出现负面的自由现金流，因为它们尚未达到规模经济。在这种环境中时间越长，特斯拉将继续利用这些自由现金流进行投资。而其他公司则没有这样的优势，这将进一步拉大差距。

So yes, we are seeing a little bit of a slowdown for Tesla too, I believe. But again, these are very different in terms of what they mean for each of these businesses, each of these businesses meaning Tesla versus companies like Ford or GM, legacy EV makers.

所以，是的，我认为特斯拉也在出现一些放缓的迹象。但是，就它们对于每个企业的影响以及对特斯拉与福特或通用等传统电动汽车制造商之间的差异而言，它们是非常不同的。

So although this period is challenging, I think ultimately this is something that probably increases Tesla's, you know, competitive advantage or the gap between Tesla and the rest that are making decisions to delay things to even get to where Tesla is today.

尽管这个时期充满挑战，但我认为最终这可能会增加特斯拉的竞争优势或拉大特斯拉与那些决定推迟进展甚至达到特斯拉所在地步的其他公司之间的差距。

You know, we ended up in this situation in large part because this already happened, right? This is just a repeat of what had already happened where others were too hesitant, too slow to make these investments. Not going to commit. Tesla going all in and, you know, getting to where they are. today. And that's why that's part of why it's so tough for these other companies at the moment. Tesla is in large part applying a lot of the pressure that we're talking about here.

你知道的，我们陷入这种局面很大程度上是因为之前已经发生过类似的事情，对吧？这只是一个重复发生过的情况，其他公司在做出这些投资时太犹豫、过于缓慢。他们没有承诺。特斯拉却全力以赴，你知道的，现在就取得了今天的成就。这也是为什么这些其他公司现在如此困难的一部分原因。特斯拉在很大程度上施加了我们正在讨论的压力。

So anyway, significant update from them for Ford. Mercedes also gave an update today, talking a bit about EV plans. They shared a little bit on that. So I believe they reported during today. Yeah, they reported a decline in profit and revenue. So although we've been seeing a lot of automakers still post pretty good results because last year was a little bit weaker, Mercedes did see a drop that reflected in their stock price after hours. They did talk a bit about EVs. So their chief financial officer described the EV market as a quote-unquote pretty brutal space and said, "I can hardly imagine the current status quo is fully sustainable for everybody." So it just goes to show that although automakers right now, like Ford is a great example, maybe are pricing EVs in a way that is similar to Tesla, it's, as he says here, hard to imagine that that's fully sustainable for everyone. over time they either need to scale and get those cost advantages that come with scale or they need to raise their prices or just cut out cut the business completely they can't do this forever unless they just want to keep losing money for nothing so we're at that sort of inflection point right now and that inflection point just kind of happens to be getting added pressure from the macro environment high interest rates all this sort of stuff so a fascinating period of time and we'll continue to keep an out for these type of updates.

所以无论怎样，关于福特方面有一个重大的更新。梅赛德斯也在今天发布了新的消息，略微谈及了电动汽车计划。他们对此进行了一点分享。因此，我相信他们在今天公布了财报。是的，他们报告了利润和收入的下降。虽然我们已经看到很多汽车制造商发布了相当不错的业绩，因为去年的市场相对较弱，但是梅赛德斯确实遭受了一个下滑，这在盘后交易时体现在他们的股价上。他们谈了一些关于电动汽车方面的内容。所以他们的首席财务官将电动汽车市场形容为“极其残酷的领域”，并表示：“我几乎无法想象当前的现状对每个人来说是完全可持续的。”这只能说明，尽管像福特这样的汽车制造商现在可能在定价上与特斯拉相似，但是很难想象这对所有人来说是完全可持续的。随着时间的推移，他们要么需要扩大规模并获得随规模扩大而带来的成本优势，要么就需要提高价格，要么干脆将业务完全剔除。他们不能一直这样下去，除非他们只想白白亏钱。所以我们现在正处于这个转折点，并且这个转折点恰好受到了宏观环境、高利率等各种因素的额外压力。这是一个引人入胜的时期，我们将继续关注此类更新的情况。

And then lastly for today we also heard a number of interesting things from Hertz on their earnings call so we've you know of course we're aware of the significant order for Tesla vehicles that Hertz has placed that led to a nice rally in the stock in years past. So right now their business is a little bit more challenging their stock is down significantly after reporting earnings after hours today and part of that was because their EV fleet which is 80% Tesla vehicles has impacted their financials a little bit here in multiple ways. So they say that first of all conventional maintenance on electric vehicles remained lower relative to comparable ice vehicles higher collision and damage repairs on EVs continued away on the results negatively impacted EBITDA. They say that for context collision and damage repairs on an EV can often run about twice that associated with combustion engine vehicle and they say that second where cars salvaged they must crystallize at once any difference between their carrying value and the market value of that car so the MSRP declines in EVs primarily driven by Tesla have driven their carrying value or have driven the market value lower than their carrying value which they then need to recognize for any of these salvage vehicles. So as they do that that's going to impact their financials as well. So basically Tesla's price cuts putting pressure on their residual value of the EVs for Hertz which I'm sure that played in their calculation when deciding to make that significant investment.

今天最后一件事是我们还从赫兹的盈利电话会议中听到了一些有趣的事情。我们当然知道赫兹之前曾下了大量特斯拉汽车的订单，这也导致了股票的大幅上涨。但现在他们的业务面临一些挑战，他们的股价在今天盘后发布财报后大幅下跌。其中一部分原因是他们的电动车队，也就是80%的特斯拉车辆对他们的财务状况产生了一些影响。他们称，首先，与传统燃油车相比，电动车的常规维护费用仍较低，但碰撞和损坏修复费用较高，这对财务状况产生了负面影响。他们称，就碰撞和损坏修复费用而言，电动车的费用通常是燃油车的两倍。其次，如果车辆被列为报废车，他们需要确认其资产净值与市场价值之间的差额。而特斯拉等电动车的市场价值下降，使得赫兹需要确认报废车辆的市场价值低于其资产净值。因此，这也会对他们的财务状况产生影响。基本上，特斯拉的降价对赫兹电动车的残值造成了压力，我相信在决定进行这项重大投资时也会考虑到这一点。

So that that part is interesting obviously not a super exciting update there were some mixed commentary were some other mixed commentary throughout here though they do say that the share of new electric vehicles in the US is growing studies of current EV ownership evidence lower incidence of damage and collision then for ICE vehicles not higher as we are experiencing so they're saying that there's a little bit of a difference in what the sort of standard market is versus what they are seeing they say that they'll believe those trends will converge so their hope is that this is not something that persists but is rather I don't know that they gave it they attributed it to anything in particular but something that they don't expect to continue a very long term so that's you know a more positive take on some of the things that they had said up there bear with me there's a lot of stuff of I've highlighted in here

因此，这部分显然很有趣，并不是一个非常令人兴奋的更新，有一些褒贬不一的评论，虽然这里还有其他一些褒贬不一的评论，但他们确实说美国新电动汽车的份额正在增长，对当前电动汽车的拥有情况进行的研究表明，损坏和碰撞的发生率比汽油汽车要低，并不比我们所经历的更高，所以他们说他们看到的市场标准与他们看到的有一点不同，他们说他们相信这些趋势将会趋于一致，所以他们希望这不是一直持续下去的事情，而是...我不知道他们具体把它归因于什么，但他们不指望这是一种长期持续的情况，这对他们之前所说的一些事情的观点更为积极。请耐心等待，这里有很多我在这里标记的东西。

they also say that over the next several quarters they're going to continue increasing the number of electric vehicles into the ride share fleet so it sounds like they're moving things from leisure which my understanding of it just from context reading through here I think that's sort of their normal rental rental business they're going to move EVs from that into the ride sharing fleet they say that they're doing that to simultaneously tighten the EV supply in that channel and more accurately accurately match the fleet to demand so it sounds like they kind of over allocated EVs into again leisure here and are shifting those into ride share. fleet which would be their their partnership with uber that we've talked about on a number of occasions so trying to basically right size that which means we should probably expect a little bit lower you know growth in terms of Hertz's EV business over time or at least in the you know in the short term

他们还表示，在接下来的几个季度中，他们将继续增加电动车辆在共享乘车车队中的数量，所以听起来他们正在将事情从休闲转移，根据我在这里的阅读上下文来理解，我认为这是他们正常的租车业务，他们打算将电动车从那个业务转移到共享乘车车队中，他们说这样做可以同时加强该渠道的电动车供应，并更准确地与需求匹配，所以听起来他们在休闲租车领域过度配置了电动车，现在正在将其转移到共享乘车车队中，我们以前多次讨论过他们与优步的合作伙伴关系，因此，他们正试图使其规模适当，这意味着我们在Hertz的电动车业务中可能会在一段时间内或至少在短期内预期增长会稍微较低。

and then kind of the last thing from Hertz they said that over time to the extent that we take on more GM vehicles as an example they'll be buying all forward EVs at an appreciable appreciably lower price point than they were when they bought all the Tesla vehicles so that's going to be driven by opting for non-Tesla EVs or from Tesla which has significantly lower their price their point here is just that as they purchase more EVs in the future they are lower priced and shouldn't be subject to some of the negative impacts that they're seeing here in terms of residual value since the starting price is obviously lower they also say that they think that their elements of those cars that will likely speak to lower incidence of damage but they think more importantly will speak to lower costs of parts and labor so this is a particular point on Tesla again not something that's positive here but they're saying that for Tesla in particular that they think that that's part of what is driving their repair costs to be a little bit higher they say that remember for the likes of GM and other OEMs there's decades of establishment of a broad national part supply network there's an aftermarket of parts that that is there that is less mature in the context of Tesla so again not something positive but something that I thought was interesting and definitely wanted to share

然后赫兹说，随着我们在未来接收更多通用汽车，例如，在购买特斯拉汽车时，他们将以明显更低的价格购买所有的纯电动汽车，这将由于选择非特斯拉的电动汽车或来自特斯拉而推动，而特斯拉的价格显著降低。他们的观点是，随着他们在未来购买更多电动汽车，价格会更低，不会受到目前对剩余价值的负面影响，因为起始价显然更低。他们还表示，他们认为这些汽车中的一些元素很可能导致更少的损坏事件，更重要的是，他们认为这将导致更低的零部件和人工成本。这是关于特斯拉的一个具体观点，虽然不是什么积极的情况，但我认为这是一个有趣的观点，想要分享。此外，他们还指出，对于通用汽车和其他原始设备制造商来说，建立了几十年的广泛的国家零部件供应网络，而特斯拉的零部件市场相对不够成熟。这也不是一种积极的情况，但我觉得这很有趣，也想分享一下。

As they had said previously, this doesn't necessarily reflect, you know, perfectly in terms of what it would be for the consumer market, but still an interesting update for them. It sounds like they're going to continue to push forward on EVs. Just this is part of the learning curve that they have to undergo and again not necessarily a perfect match for what the consumer market would be. So, you know, hate to end on a more negative note there, but nevertheless wanted to pass those comments along because, you know, they definitely attributed a part of the learnings, miss at least, to the impact that Tesla has had, a lot of that being driven by the price cuts from Tesla. But again, they do continue to plan to increase and continue to grow the EV business, just probably a little bit less aggressively than what they were doing, you know, in 2021, 2022.

正如他们之前所说的，这并不一定完全反映出对消费市场的影响，但对他们来说仍然是一个有趣的更新。听起来他们将继续推进电动车技术。这只是他们必须经历的学习曲线的一部分，并不一定完全符合消费市场的预期。所以，虽然不愿以一个更消极的角度结束，但还是想把这些评论传达出来，因为他们明显将这次失误的一部分归因于特斯拉的影响，其中很大程度上是因为特斯拉的降价。不过，他们仍然计划增加和发展电动车业务，只是可能比他们在2021年、2022年期间更加保守。

All right, that'll wrap it up for today then. So, as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on x at Tesla podcast, and we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday, October 27th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，今天就到这里了。所以，如往常一样，谢谢你的倾听。请确保你已经订阅并开启了通知。你也可以在Tesla播客的x上找到我，明天我们将为你带来10月27日星期五的特斯拉日报节目。谢谢。