New Performance Model 3 Info, Toyota Joins NACS, Tesla Earnings

Hey everybody Rob Manward here and today of course we're going to continue to talk a little bit about Tesla's earnings report yesterday.

大家好，我是罗布·曼沃德，今天当然要继续谈谈昨天特斯拉的财报。

We do also have some news on a possible performance version of the Highland Model 3. We've got an exciting update from Toyota and a couple other items as well.

我们还有一些有关Highland Model 3可能的性能版本的消息。我们从丰田那里得到了一个令人兴奋的更新，还有几个其他条目。

Looking at the stock, obviously a challenging day today after earnings, continuing the downtrend that we saw during the call and after the call yesterday, closing down probably another 4% from where that closed yesterday after the call, 9.3% drop on the day today closing at 2.20 and 11 cents. Nasdaq down about 1% today, a little bit of volatility in the Nasdaq today with I guess a mix of bearish and bullish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. I guess hawkish and davish would be better put for his comments but ultimately Nasdaq ending down as well not really providing any help for us today.

看着股票，很明显今天是一个具挑战性的日子，盈利后继续下降，延续了昨天电话会议和电话结束后的跌势，可能在昨天电话会议结束后认为又下跌了4％，今天收盘价格为2.20美元和11美分，跌幅达9.3％。纳斯达克今天下跌约1％，纳斯达克今天有一些波动，我猜这是因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对市场发出了一些利好和利空的评论。我猜“鹰派”和“鸽派”更准确地描述了他的言论，但最终纳斯达克走低了，对我们今天并没有提供任何帮助。

Just a couple of quick analyst reactions, we're not going to go through them all but just to get a sense of the flavor unsurprisingly, mostly negative. I would say as we expected from yesterday, here's one from Morgan Stanley, they've actually updated their forecast for next year for fiscal year 24. Their earnings forecast for that year down to $2.41 from $3.89 previously. Pretty significant drop in their expectations just based on margins, obviously and expectations for growth next year. They did however only lower their price target $20 so previously they were at $400 and now they've dropped that to $380. Basically just saying that a lot of their expectations for the business are in additional things like AI, supercharging, etc. Other areas of Tesla's business that maybe aren't going to be massive EPS contributors next year but they're still bullish on longer term.

一些快速的分析师反应，我们不会逐个列举，只是为了获得一个整体感觉，毫不意外，大多数是负面的。我想说，正如我们昨天预期的那样，摩根士丹利就是其中之一，他们实际上已经更新了明年财政年度24的预测。他们对那一年的盈利预测从之前的3.89美元下调至2.41美元。基于利润率和明年的增长预期，他们的预期明显下降。然而，他们只降低了20美元的目标价值，之前是400美元，现在降至380美元。基本上，他们只是在说，很多对于特斯拉业务的期望是在人工智能、超级充电等其他领域，这些可能不会在明年对EPS贡献巨大，但他们对长期前景仍然持乐观态度。

Then I always like to take a quick look at Alex Potter update from him. They have maintained that they're going to update their numbers and forecasts after they get the 10Q. The 10Q that should come in a couple of days, usually that's out within I think like three days for Tesla. So we'll look for that maybe tomorrow or otherwise probably on Monday. That'll give us a little bit more information on a couple of items that we talked about yesterday and some things that we'll talk about more towards the end of the episode. As we can see here, margin recovery seems likely following Q3 downside is kind of the headline from them and they're still overweight.

然后我总是喜欢快速查看Alex Potter的最新动态。他们表示，在获得10Q报告后，他们将更新数字和预测。通常情况下，10Q报告在几天内会发布，对于特斯拉来说，这通常在三天内。所以我们可能会在明天或者更有可能在周一看到这一更新。这将给我们更多关于昨天我们讨论过的一些问题和本集末尾我们将讨论的一些事情提供更多信息。如我们所见，他们的主要观点是，预计在Q3的下跌之后可能会出现利润回升，并且他们仍然持有超配观点。

Then just a quick update here. Obviously yesterday the audio feed on YouTube for Tesla did not include the first couple of minutes and there was a little bit of a drop there as well in the middle. Tesla's posted a full audio version now on YouTube so I would recommend going back and listening to just the first couple of minutes that were dropped. It actually has contained some pretty good insight from Elon in his opening comments. That starts at about six minutes in this full audio version. Just to kind of let people know what he mentioned there.

那么这里只是一个快速的更新。显然，昨天在YouTube上的特斯拉的音频中，前几分钟没有包括进来，并且中间还有一段掉线的情况。特斯拉现在在YouTube上发布了完整的音频版本，所以我建议你们回去听一下刚刚掉线的前几分钟。其实在Elon的开场发言中，他提供了一些非常有见地的洞察力。在这个完整的音频版本中，这段发言从大约六分钟开始。只是为了让大家知道他在那里提到了什么。

Obviously he mentioned that for the quarter, third quarter, Tesla was impacted by downtime. Obviously we know that but hearing him mention that as a contributor to obviously the performance here is important context. And he did say that that downtime would help Tesla reduce vehicle cost as well as increase production which is a key piece that obviously was a little bit tapered in terms of the discussion on that later on in the call and in the deck. So for him to start his opening comments really by saying that that is one of the reasons for the downtime, increasing production, I think gives important context that Tesla is going to continue to do that just maybe a little bit less aggressively than what we might have expected before.

显然，他提到特斯拉在第三季度受到停产的影响。显然我们知道这个事实，但听到他把这一点作为性能的一个贡献者进行提及是重要的背景信息。他还表示，停产将帮助特斯拉降低车辆成本，并增加生产量，这是一个重要的方面。在之后的电话会议和演示中，这一点在讨论中可能稍微收敛了一些。因此，他在开场发言中提到这是停产的原因之一，增加生产量，我认为这给出了重要的背景信息，表明特斯拉将会继续这样做，只是可能会比我们之前预期的相对保守一些。

So that's important to hear. And then they also, Elon also said that they recently completed the 10,000 GPU cluster Rachel and hundreds from Nvidia saying that they believe that they ramped that faster than any other company has done. So that's also exciting to hear for him to not just say that they've, you know, they're working on ramping that they've actually completed that. That was something that was going on on, you know, Tesla employees on X were talking about that and saying that it takes time to do that. So for him to say that that is now completed, maybe still a little bit of fine tuning things like that that can happen, but it seems like that's a really good spot, which is obviously exciting for FSD version 12. So a couple of really good nuggets there that unfortunately got dropped from the, from the initial stream yesterday.

所以这很重要听到。埃隆也说他们最近完成了一台由10,000台GPU组成的Rachel集群以及数百台Nvidia设备，并表示他们相信他们的速度比其他任何公司都要快。所以这也非常激动人心，因为他不仅表示他们正在努力提升，而且实际上已经完成了。在特斯拉员工上的X论坛上也有人说这需要时间。所以他能说现在已经完成了，可能还需要一些微调之类的事情，但看起来他们已经达到了一个非常好的状态，这对于FSD版本12显然是令人兴奋的。所以昨天的初始直播中遗漏了几个非常有价值的信息。

All right, we'll talk more about earnings in a second, but just want to kind of hit on a couple of news items here. So the first is from Toyota. They have announced that they are going to be adopting the North American charging standard beginning end 2025 for Toyota and Lexus battery electric vehicles. They interestingly said that it's going to be on select vehicles. I would assume that that let's see the exact wording. So BMW sorry, BMW, we just had a Toyota will incorporate NACS ports into certain Toyota and Lexus BVs starting in 2025.

好的，我们稍后会详细讨论收益，但是我想先简单提一下一些新闻要点。首先是关于丰田的消息。他们宣布将从2025年底开始，为丰田和雷克萨斯的电池电动汽车采用北美充电标准。他们有趣地表示，这将应用于某些车型。我想他们的确切措辞是：BMW，抱歉，不好意思，是指丰田在2025年开始在某些丰田和雷克萨斯的电动汽车上加入NACS（北美充电标准）端口。

So maybe just, you know, that conversion would be something that isn't instantaneous. Maybe they'll just kind of do in sequence with some of their other production, like whatever that vehicle, the BZ4X or whatever, like maybe that, for example, would convert later or something. That's kind of my read on that language. And then we talked about BMW not indicating that they would be offering an adapter, which I thought was kind of odd.

所以也许仅仅是，你知道的，这种转换可能不会瞬间发生。也许他们只会按顺序完成其他一些生产工作，比如那辆BZ4X车，可能会稍后进行转换，或者什么的。这是我对那种说法的理解。然后我们谈到了宝马没有表示他们会提供一个适配器，我觉得这有点奇怪。

Toyota has said that they will be offering the adapter also in 2025. So obviously Tesla would be supplying that, but you know, something that they've mentioned. Again, probably just no mission from BMW, but kind of an interesting difference from their announcements with the other ones. At any rate, this is one of the last, I think, kind of last two big dominoes to fall as we talked about Toyota and Volkswagen. Now, obviously Toyota, a bigger EV player right now, or sorry, obviously Volkswagen, a bigger EV player right now than Toyota, which isn't really doing a whole lot. It doesn't seem to have plans to do a whole lot. But as one of the two biggest automakers in the world, this is still, I think, you know, a pretty consequential announcement just in terms of, you know, the overall size of Toyota outside of electric vehicles and Volkswagen kind of holding that same sort of status, but obviously a little bit further along on EVs. So Volkswagen now kind of the loan hold out, I would say, in terms of the major players. And obviously they're going to pretty much have to do this now that, you know, 90% of the industry is kind of on board. So I think exciting to see that. And I doubt Toyota would be, or sorry, I doubt Volkswagen would be too far behind, but we'll keep an eye out for updates from them.

丰田已表示他们将在2025年提供适配器。所以很明显，特斯拉将会提供这个适配器，但这是他们提到的一些内容。再者，可能只是来自宝马的一种宣传，但这与其他厂商的宣传有所不同，也算是一种有趣的差异。无论如何，我们之前提到的丰田和大众是最后两个大的布局方。显然，大众现在是一个更大的电动汽车参与者，而丰田在这方面没有做太多。似乎也没有计划做太多。不过，作为全球最大的两家汽车制造商之一，丰田在电动汽车领域外的规模仍然是相当重要的，而大众在电动汽车领域上也具有同样的地位，但显然在电动汽车方面走得更远。因此，我认为大众现在是最后一个持观望态度的大厂，很显然，由于90%的行业已经全面支持，他们几乎不得不加入进来。我认为这是一个令人兴奋的消息，并且我怀疑大众也不会太落后，但我们会继续关注他们的更新。

All right. And then kind of an interesting update we've got on the Model 3, Highland. So kilowatts on X noting today, or noticing that Tesla has added some new information on the Highland into the parts catalog. And some of this seems to indicate performance versions, as we're seeing here, a little bit of a badge that kind of looks like the plaid badge. But if you look at it closely, it's, it's more akin to like the ludicrous speed screen from space balls, which obviously the, you know, ludicrous and plaid have both referenced. So it seems as though there's likely to be a performance version that is a ludicrous version rather than a plaid version of the Highland Model 3. And then I wouldn't be surprised if we kind of see that sort of, you know, same terminology or whatever carry over to the Model Y eventually as well.

好的。接下来，关于Model 3 Highland我们有一个有趣的更新。今天看到，Tesla已经将一些新的信息添加到配件目录中。其中一些信息似乎表明了高性能版本，正如我们在这里所看到的，有一个徽章看起来有点像方格标志。但是如果你仔细看，它更像是电影《太空球》中的ludicrous speed屏幕，它显然是指ludicrous和plaid两个词的引用。所以看起来很可能会出现一款高性能版本，而不是一款方格版的高性能Model 3 Highland。然后如果我们最终在Model Y上看到类似的术语或者其他细节，我也不会感到意外。

So obviously we haven't heard a whole lot of official on the performance model three. It's omitted right now, but it looks like something that Tesla is doing. And it looks like it would be ludicrous speed, which will probably be my best guess would be that that would be better performance than what we saw on the Model 3 before. But obviously jury is out on that. And then it looks like there are some new wheels specifically, you know, this style here. This was noted on Chinese social media on Weibo as pointed out by Dr. Tuscanodon X as being the warp wheel that is going to be available for the performance trim.

显然，我们还没听到太多关于Model 3的官方性能版的消息。目前还没有公布，但看起来特斯拉正在进行一些工作。而且看起来它可能会拥有疯狂的速度，可能比我们之前见过的Model 3性能更好。但显然还没有定论。而且看起来有一些新的轮圈，就像这个样式。据中国社交媒体微博上Dr. Tuscanodon X指出的，这些将会是性能版可选配的扭曲轮圈。

It's kind of the discussion that was was being had there. You can see the, you know, installation of the carbon fiber spoiler here on what is likely a prototype of the Highland performance. So I think all pretty exciting details there. And then someone on Reddit, real pokey pop noticed that in Fremont, they had spotted a Highland Model 3 didn't take too much notice of it. But upon review, once this information had come out, they noticed that the wheels, as we can see here, do seem to be those, you know, kind of warp wheels. So if we kind of compare that to these and obviously Tesla covering them, but that's seems to be probably what this wheel here is. So I think all good indications there for the, you know, plaid or sorry, not plaid, but ludicrous or performance model three for Highland. Obviously, no timeline details on that yet, but looks like something that is relatively imminent.

这是他们当时正在进行的讨论。你可以看到，这可能是高地性能车的原型上安装的碳纤维尾翼。所以我觉得那里有很多令人兴奋的细节。然后Reddit上的一个人，Real Pokey Pop，注意到在弗里蒙特他们看到了一辆高地Model 3，一开始并没有太在意。但是在这些信息公布后，他们注意到，就像我们在这里看到的那样，这些车轮似乎是所谓的"翘曲轮胎"。所以如果我们将其与这些进行比较，显然特斯拉把它们遮住了，但这似乎很可能就是这里的车轮。所以我认为所有这些都是关于高地版Model 3（不是高级版，而是疯狂版或性能版）的良好迹象。当然，目前没有关于时间表的详细信息，但看起来它可能很快就会出现。

And then just a quick one here, the information today, you know, not my favorite source, but they have noticed that a battery engineer for Tesla that was actually from Maxwell technologies which, you know, Tesla acquired in part for a drive battery electrode technology and research and all of their work that has gone into that. One of their, their former directors of R&D for DBE for drive battery electrode, who's worked at Tesla now since that acquisition has now left and looks like is going to be the chief manufacturing officer of a relatively young company called AM batteries.

然后，只是在这里简单说一下，今天的信息，你知道，不是我最喜欢的来源，但他们注意到了一个特斯拉的电池工程师，实际上来自Maxwell技术公司，你知道，特斯拉在部分收购了该公司，主要是为了得到其驱动电池电极技术和研究以及所有与此相关的工作。他们的前驱动电池电极研发总监，在特斯拉收购Maxwell之后一直在特斯拉工作，现在已经离开，看起来将成为一家相对年轻的公司AM电池的首席制造官。

So how noteworthy that is, I don't know. Obviously, we'd prefer that, you know, people stay and work at Tesla, you know, not forever, but for a while. So always disappointing to see when people leave, especially people in these roles, but hopefully Tesla is now at a good point with drive battery electrode with the 4680s. They didn't quite specifically get into that level of detail on the 4680 up to yesterday, but I think that, you know, certainly they've had a lot of time here to make progress and hopefully not too impactful, at least at this stage.

这个多么值得注意，我不知道。显然，我们希望人们在特斯拉工作，并且能够在那里工作一段时间，也不是永远。所以当人们离开的时候，尤其是那些担任这些职位的人，总是让人失望。但希望特斯拉在电池电极和4680型号方面已经达到了一个良好的水平。他们昨天没有详细介绍4680型号的细节，但我认为他们在这段时间里肯定已经取得了很多进展，希望至少在目前阶段影响不会太大。

And then finally for today, I just want to kind of, you know, re-circle to a couple of topics on earnings yesterday. So I think largely, you know, I think we covered a lot of what I would want to have covered yesterday, I think probably most of it. One quick thing that we had talked about just needing to look at a little bit closer was the 2.3 billion that had come in cash on this quarter from financing activities. So should I just look at this yesterday about statement of cash flows, it breaks the, you know, where's that where that's coming from down in the cash flows from financing activities line. And we can see that most of that 2.2 billion is coming from net borrowings under vehicle and energy product financing. So that's probably coming from, you know, leasing and things like that. That Tesla is kind of drawing on, you know, for this cash. So that's my guess.

然后最后，今天我只是想再回到昨天一些关于收益的话题上。所以我认为，大部分我昨天想谈的内容我们已经涵盖了，可能大部分都谈过了。昨天我们只是需要仔细研究一下财务活动中获得的23亿现金。所以我昨天在现金流量表上看了一下，它详细说明了这笔现金来自哪些财务活动。我们可以看到，这23亿中的大部分来自于车辆和能源产品融资的净借款。所以这可能是特斯拉通过租赁等方式获取的现金。这只是我的猜测。

We'll get more details on that in the 10Q if other people that are a little bit more accounting savvy want to provide some additional insights in the comments on that before we get that that would be welcome to. But that's where it's coming from for this quarter. So wanted to follow up on that.

我们将在10Q文件中获得更多的细节，如果有一些更熟悉会计的人愿意在评论中提供一些额外的见解，在我们得到那之前，这将是受欢迎的。但这就是本季度的情况。所以我想对此进行跟进。

And then I mentioned during the earnings call yesterday when we were kind of recapping things, if anyone wants me to discuss anything more specifically, just let me know in the comments. So we got a nice comment here from Mike, just with a few questions. So I thought, you know, good questions here and worth going through. I'm going to come back to the first one. But second one here is, you know, how does pausing the affordable car slash Mexico jive with the problem of cars not being affordable enough? It doesn't seem to support the mission. Tesla has a strong financial position that it's minimal risk to make at least steady progress in Mexico, et cetera.

然后昨天在我们回顾事情时，我在收益电话会议中提到，如果有任何人想要我更具体地讨论任何事情，只需在评论中告诉我。所以我们从迈克那里收到了一条不错的评论，带有一些问题。我想，这里有一些好问题，值得讨论一下。我会先回答第一个问题，然后再来回答第二个问题。第二个问题是，暂停推出价格实惠的汽车和在墨西哥的汽车生产与汽车价格不够实惠的问题是否相符？这似乎不支持我们的使命。特斯拉在财务上非常强大，至少在墨西哥取得稳步进展的风险极小。

So basically, you know, how does pausing next generation vehicle pausing Mexico relate to high interest rates and do those things kind of clash. So first off, how does pausing the affordable car? I think that's a misnomer for what's actually happening here. If we look at the earnings deck, Tesla said that we continue to make progress on our next-generation vehicle next-generation platform. At no point do I recall them saying that that is in any way paused. So that is not my interpretation.

基本上，你知道，在暂停下一代汽车在墨西哥的生产方面，与高利率有什么关系，这些事情是否会发生冲突。首先，我们来看一下，暂停生产的廉价汽车是如何发生的？我认为这个称呼实际上与目前发生的事情不符。如果我们查看特斯拉的财报，他们表示我们在下一代汽车和平台方面仍在取得进展。我没有记得他们在任何时候表示过这个计划被暂停了。所以这不是我的理解。

I think a lot of people are maybe misconstruing things and kind of coming to that conclusion that there is either a delay or a slowdown or a pause in Tesla moving forward for these things. And obviously, there was a lot of hesitancy expressed by Elon on the call for being as aggressive as we have seen Tesla be historically. But I also don't interpret that in any way to mean that this is delayed or paused or anything like that because like the comment, like the question points out, obviously Tesla's going to want to continue to lower prices of vehicles and the next-generation vehicle platform is one of the ways to do that. So pushing forward on that as aggressively as possible is the thing that makes sense to do. And I would expect that that is what Tesla is in fact doing.

我认为很多人可能曲解了事情，以及得出了特斯拉在这方面的推进被延迟、减缓或暂停的结论。显然，在电话会议上埃隆表达了很多犹豫，因为我们所见到的特斯拉过去的进取态度。但我并不认为这意味着它被延迟或暂停，或类似的事情，因为正如评论和问题所指出的那样，特斯拉显然希望继续降低车辆的价格，而下一代车辆平台就是实现这一目标的途径之一。因此，尽快积极地推进这一目标是合乎情理的。我预计特斯拉实际上正在采取这样的行动。

And then on Mexico, again, it's not necessarily paused. Elon said that we're laying the groundwork to begin construction and doing all the long lead items, but thinking that they just want to get a sense for the global economy before they go full tilt on Mexico. So sort of slow playing it. Again, not being as aggressive as maybe we would have seen Tesla be historically during this period of time where there's at least from Elon's perspective macro uncertainty. And he's kind of worried about where things go, not only from like where things are at right now, but where they go. So this I think relates more to free cash flow rather than trying to slow down specifically the next-generation vehicle.

然后说到墨西哥，它并没有完全暂停。埃隆表示我们正在着手创建基础设施，准备开始建设，并进行所有长期准备工作，但他们认为在完全投入墨西哥之前，需要先了解全球经济的情况。因此，他们采取了一种较慢节奏的策略。与以往相比，在埃隆看来，特斯拉在这个时期并不像以往那样积极进取，可能是因为宏观不确定性存在。他对事态发展不仅关心当前状况，还关心未来的走向。所以我认为这更多与自由现金流有关，而不是特别放慢下一代车辆的速度。

And both of these things are kind of in tandem, right? Because initially from what we can kind of figure out is that it seemed like Tesla was planning to build this next-generation vehicle just in Mexico from the beginning. And then the Walter Isaacson biography indicated that the plan had actually shifted. And now the plan is to do that initially in Texas and then kind of copy and paste that to, you know, for lack of a better word over to Mexico.

这两件事情是相互关联的，对吗？因为最初我们从一些线索中可以推测出来的是，特斯拉似乎计划从一开始就在墨西哥建造这款下一代汽车。然后沃尔特·爱萨克森的传记表明计划实际上发生了变化。现在的计划是最初在得克萨斯州进行，然后将其"复制并粘贴"到（直译：转向）墨西哥，就像复制和粘贴文件一样。

So with that context, even setting aside anything else that Tesla had talked about here, it wouldn't make sense for Mexico to be delayed because of that decision. Again in isolation of anything else. So it's important that we're clear on what exactly happens here or what exactly Tesla and what Elon said because I think a lot of people just kind of like sit there and hear like the emotion of it. And maybe just over apply things that weren't necessarily said. And I think that's not all the reaction today, but I do think that that's kind of a part of it. So we just got to be careful about like things that Tesla did not say making those types of assumptions.

在这种背景下，即使撇开特斯拉在此提到的其他任何事情，因此该决定对于墨西哥来说被推迟并没有意义。再次，完全孤立地看待。因此，我们清楚地了解在这里发生了什么或特斯拉和伊隆说了什么是很重要的，因为我认为很多人只是在那里听到表达的情绪。也许他们过度解读了未必被提及的内容。我认为这不是今天所有反应的全部，但我认为这是其中的一部分。因此，我们必须小心，不要对特斯拉没有提到的内容做出这种假设。

So if we go back to this question, how does pausing the affordable car fit with this? I don't think they've paused it. I don't think they've slowed it down. I think if anything, it's going to happen probably a little bit more quickly now that it's happening in Texas, right? And we've seen from Joe Taggmire that there's stuff presumably going in for that already. So you know, Tesla doesn't want to talk about that at this point. Why would they? But I don't think it's slowed down. And then for Mexico, again, I think that that would this change would be happening regardless of what Elon also said about the current macro environment. So I think that's a factor. But I just, the point is that I think Mexico would have been on a different timeline after that decision was made than it was initially, and that would completely make sense. So hopefully that provides some additional context on that one.

所以，如果我们回到这个问题，暂停推出廉价车系适应这个问题吗？我认为他们并没有暂停。我认为他们并没有减缓推进速度。如果有什么变化，可能会更快推出，因为现在在得州推出了，对吗？我们已经从乔·泰格迈尔那里看到了一些看似准备工作正在进行中。所以，你知道，特斯拉现在不想谈论这个。为什么呢？但我认为它并没有减速。至于墨西哥，我认为不管埃隆关于当前宏观环境的说法如何，这个变化都会发生。所以我认为这是一个因素。但重点是，我认为在做出决定后，墨西哥的时间表会与最初不同，这完全合理。希望这为此提供了一些额外的背景。

Question two, was Lars trying to do damage control to get Elon to confirm the biography rumors that Gen 3 will be made in Austin. You're going to have to give me a timestamp on that. I went back through the transcript to figure out exactly what this was referencing. I know there were kinds of times where Elon and Lars were just kind of going back and forth. So I don't recall exactly what this would be in terms of like the damage control piece of it. So if you want to give me a timestamp on that, I can take a look at it. But it wasn't something that I noticed at least when I was, you know, going through and doing the live notes.

问题二，Lars是在努力修复破绽，以使埃隆确认关于第三代汽车将在奥斯汀生产的传记传闻。你需要告诉我具体的时间戳。我回顾了记录的文字稿，试图找出这是在指什么。我记得埃隆和拉斯有时在互相交谈。所以我不太确定这是指什么方面的修复破绽。如果你能给我一个时间戳，我可以查看一下。但至少在我浏览和做实时笔记时，我没有注意到这个问题。

Third, how do you think reneging on the Gigamexico timeline, not defending the 20 million cars target and now not defending FSD this year is affecting Tesla's credibility. So just take that piece by piece, reneging on the Gigamexico timeline. We obviously just kind of talked about that. But just to be clear, I don't recall Tesla ever giving a specific timeline on Gigamexico. Obviously, we've had rumors about it. There was a time when the governor of New York, Billy on said that Tesla or that Tom Zuud said that they're going to try to from groundbreaking to actual first vehicles, they're going to try to beat Shanghai, which was roughly nine months. But again, that's not like an official Tesla announcement. That's not an official timeline. That's, you know, a Tesla employee saying something to you know, a member of Mexico that's involved in the planning of this. So if we're trying to frame this as like reneging, that's certainly not how I would frame it. And again, I think context wise, you know, we kind of can understand why the timeline has maybe shifted a little bit from both what seems to be a shift in plans for Austin and then also all the stuff that Elon talked about with the macro economy.

第三，你认为Tesla违约Gigamexico时间表、不坚持2000万辆车目标以及不再坚持今年的FSD对Tesla的信誉有何影响？所以，我们逐一来看，首先是Gigamexico时间表的违约。很明显，我们刚刚谈到了这个问题。但是要明确的是，我不记得Tesla曾经给出过Gigamexico的具体时间表。显然，我们听到了一些关于此的传闻。有一次纽约州州长比利(Billy)说，Tom Zuud说他们要争取在动工到实际首批交付车辆的时间上击败上海，大约需要九个月时间。但再说一次，那不是官方的Tesla声明，那只是一名Tesla员工对与墨西哥计划相关的成员说的一番话。所以，如果我们试图把这当作违约，那绝对不是我对此的理解。而且，从背景上看，我们可能能够理解为什么时间表可能有所调整，这既包括奥斯汀计划的变动，也包括埃隆对宏观经济的谈论。

So again, I think it comes down to when we think about like, oh, they're being a little bit less aggressive. Why wouldn't they be more aggressive right now to try to get to higher volume low cost vehicle faster? If we're saying interest rates are making sales difficult, then shouldn't we try to get to that other vehicle faster? Absolutely. But to do that is going to cost more money and potentially be less cost effective. You know, there's there's gating factors and you can't just continue to accelerate that with with more money.

所以，再次说到这个问题，我认为关键在于我们想到他们会稍微变得不那么积极。为什么他们现在不更加积极地努力尽快推出更高产量、低成本的车辆呢？如果我们说利率使销售变得困难，那么我们不应该更快地推出另一种车型吗？当然可以。但要做到这一点将需要更多的资金，并且可能变得不那么成本效益高。你知道，有一些制约因素，你不能仅凭借资金就继续加速推进。

But when you try to do that, it's going to cost more. So I think where you want comments on that come come back to you is just like Tesla wants to maintain free cash flow, make sure that even if the current business like model three model Y model S and X and if cyber truck takes longer than they think or something like that, if the next generation vehicle plans in Austin take longer than they think something like that, you want to saying we just want to make sure that all that stuff is really good that we're still positive free cash flow, not doing anything that's going to put the business at risk before we kind of, as he said, go full tilt into Giga Mexico.

但是当你试着做那样的事情时，会更加昂贵。因此我认为你希望对此发表评论的观点就像特斯拉希望维持自由现金流一样，确保即使像“Model 3”、“Model Y”、“Model S”和“Model X”这样的当前业务，或者“Cybertruck”所需的时间超过他们的预期，或者奥斯汀的下一代车辆计划所需的时间超过他们的预期之类的情况，你希望表达的是我们只是想确保所有这些都非常出色，我们仍然保持积极的自由现金流，不会做任何可能使业务处于风险之中的事情，然后才会全力进入Giga Mexico。

So yes, I do think that there's an argument to be made that, hey, because of the macro situation, this is more important to go fast on than ever. But at the same time, that presents more risk and you want to saying right now, his preferences for the less risk path. So that's again, kind of my interpretation and I think makes a lot of sense with what we heard from Elon on the call. If that's the right decision, obviously that's up for debate. Elon even said that on the call. I love Tesla's aggressiveness historically. I'd love to see them have the confidence to continue to be aggressive in it, but they've got a lot more information than we do. And obviously they know what they can and can't do in terms of timelines and how cost effective those things are going to be.

是的，我确实认为有一个论点可以提出，因为宏观情况，这比以往更重要，需要更快行动。但同时，这也带来更多的风险，你想要现在说，他的偏好是选择较少风险的路径。所以这又是我的解读，我认为与埃隆在通话中所听到的很符合逻辑。当然，这是否是正确决定，还有待讨论。埃隆甚至在通话中也说过这一点。我喜欢特斯拉在历史上表现出的侵略性。我希望他们有信心继续保持侵略性，但他们掌握的信息远比我们多。显然他们知道他们可以做什么，不能做什么，以及在时间表上的成本效益如何。

So I think we kind of all have to defer to Tesla's assumptions on that. I think historically Tesla's made very good decisions in those regards. Obviously, there's other elements of the business that we can talk about ad nauseam, but stuff like this, investments and capex and return on equity and all of this stuff Tesla has done phenomenally with. So it's not an area that I do have a lot of faith in Tesla in that area, I guess.

所以我认为我们都应该依据特斯拉的假设来做出决策。我认为从历史上来看，特斯拉在这些方面做出了非常明智的决策。当然，关于公司的其他方面我们可以无休止地讨论，但像投资和资本支出以及股权回报率之类的事情，特斯拉表现得非常出色。所以在这个领域，我对特斯拉有很大的信心，我猜。

So yeah, I don't think they're reneged on the timeline. Obviously, it's a little bit later. I wouldn't call it that though. Not defending the 20 million cars target. So this is something that I said was a little bit disappointing to me yesterday. I continue to feel that way. I think, you know, with Elon, I think he's made the point before you can't just grow a 50% in perpetuity, but I would have liked to have seen him kind of reiterate that, you know, we're still trying for that without that. It does put uncertainty into that.

是的，我不认为他们违背了时间表。显然，稍微晚了一点。虽然如此，我不会这么说。并不是在为2000万辆汽车的目标辩护。所以，这是我昨天提到的让我有点失望的地方。我持续地感到这样。我认为，你知道，对于埃隆来说，他之前已经表达过无法永远以50%的速度增长，但我希望他能够重申一下，我们仍然在努力追求这个目标，没有这样的表态，会给未来增添不确定性。

How that affects Tesla's credibility. No one thought Tesla was going to do that in the first place. Really, obviously some people, but largely no one expected Tesla to be able to actually accomplish that, but just having the target out there that hopefully meant that they would get somewhere in the ballpark, right? Like, whether it's 10 million or 15 million or whatever. If this sort of target becomes something that Tesla is no longer trying to pin up there and continue to talk about, which maybe we're seeing an initial case of that here, then it starts to look a little bit less likely that they even end up in that realm. So I'd like to see them continue to talk about that target, but it's also, you know, at a certain point, you've got to start to get also a little bit more realistic about what you can do, and, you know, we're heading into 2024 here as Tesla going to add 18 million vehicle capacity in six years. Like, that's kind of a stretch. So I'm not terribly surprised. It's something that I guess I would like to see a little bit more positive discussion around, you know, their growth targets. Elon obviously choosing this call to focus a little bit more on some of the things that are concerning him rather than that. But hopefully at some point in the future, we kind of, you know, flip back and get sort of the other side of that, which obviously exists. It's just what Elon chose to focus on on this call.

这将如何影响特斯拉的信誉。一开始没有人认为特斯拉会做到这一点。当然，确实有一些人有这样的期望，但大多数人并没有预料到特斯拉能真正实现这一目标，只是希望他们能在这个范围内取得一些进展，对吧？无论是1000万辆还是1500万辆，反正只要这个目标不再成为特斯拉追求并持续谈论的事情，特斯拉实现这个目标的可能性就变得更小了。所以我希望他们能继续谈论这个目标，但在某个时候，你也得更现实一点，知道自己能做到什么，毕竟我们要进入2024年了，特斯拉能在六年内增加1800万辆汽车的产能，这有点困难。所以我对此并不感到意外，我希望在关于他们增长目标的讨论中能多一些积极的声音。埃隆在这次电话会议上选择把注意力集中在一些让他担忧的事情上，而不是增长目标上。但希望在未来的某个时候，我们能够回到另一方面，因为另一方面显然是存在的，只不过埃隆选择在这次电话会议上关注了这一方面。

And then defending FSD this year, again, this is something like the 20 million target. Like, no one actually, I don't think really many people probably expected this to actually be solved this year. And again, we're coming up to the end of it. So it's not, not terribly surprising to not have Elon reiterate that and double down that this is going to be done in the next two months. So I'm not surprised by that. But obviously, you know, it does hurt Tesla's credibility a little bit. I just think in that area specifically, it's again, something that people kind of expected. So those are kind of my thoughts on those.

然后，再一次捍卫全自动驾驶（FSD）今年的目标，这就像是2000万台的预期。就我所了解，很少人真的预料到今年能够解决这个问题。再一次，我们已经接近年底了。所以，马斯克没有再强调并重申这个目标在接下来的两个月内会完成，这并不让人意外。但显然，这会有点损害特斯拉的信誉。我认为在这个领域，这是人们有点期望的事情。这就是我对这些问题的看法。

But I mean, good questions in general. And then for you downplayed advertising as a major solution, I have to disagree. People at the company never know what Tesla prices are, but they're well aware of all the other negative headlines around Tesla. So yeah, I think I've been pretty clear. Like I've been a supporter of Tesla trying things with advertising. As far as a major solution, I think it's just kind of semantics, right? Like, I do think it's something that can be effective for Tesla. I think yesterday I said it's not like a magical fix or a silver bullet. And I think that's what this is in response to. And I still feel that way, you know, but it's a matter of what does that mean exactly when I say that, I'm saying advertising is not the thing that's causing the business to be so different this year than it was last year, right? The lack of advertising is not going to suddenly, you know, if Tesla implements advertising, we're not suddenly going back to a $58,000 average selling price and 29% margins or whatever we peaked at. Like, that's not what's going to do that. It might help with profitability. And hopefully that would be the case. And that would be obviously the argument for doing it. If it didn't do that, then it wouldn't make any sense. Just a matter of like how far along that spectrum does it go? And that's what none of us know, right? And that's kind of what I've always argued, you know, why I've wanted Tesla to do this is because I don't know, they don't know because they haven't really tried it. So it's something that I'd like to see them happen. I just don't think that it's going to. It's something that moves things all the way back. You know, there's there's a lot of factors here that need to be overcome. So that's hopefully a little bit more context on that.

但我的意思是，总的来说是好问题。然后你对广告作为主要解决方案的轻视，我不同意。公司的人永远不知道特斯拉的价格，但他们非常清楚特斯拉周围的所有其他负面新闻。所以是的，我认为我已经表达得很清楚了。就像我一直支持特斯拉尝试广告一样。至于主要解决方案，我认为这只是一种措辞上的差异，对吧？就像我昨天说的，这不是一个神奇的方法或灵丹妙药。我依然这样认为，但问题在于当我这么说的时候，我想表达的是广告不是导致今年与去年业务状况如此不同的因素，对不对？缺乏广告不会突然使特斯拉的平均售价达到58,000美元，利润率达到29%，或者我们的峰值。这不是广告所能做到的。广告可能有助于盈利能力提高。希望能有这个效果。这当然是使用广告的论点。如果它不能达到这个效果，那就没有任何意义了。只是一个问题，在这个范围内能够达到什么程度？这就是我们中没有人知道的情况，这也是我一直主张特斯拉这么做的原因，因为我不知道，他们也不知道，因为他们从未真正尝试过。所以我希望看到他们去尝试。只是我不认为这能够彻底改变一切。这里有很多需要克服的因素。希望这对你有更多的背景了解。

And then the last one here, which was the first one, thoughts on the new CFO. So obviously I was a big fan of Zachar Corn. I think he did a great job. Definitely sad to see, you know, sad to have a call without him on it, disappointing for sure.

然后，最后一个议题是关于新任首席财务官的看法。显然，我非常欣赏扎卡尔·科恩。我认为他做得非常出色。没有他参与的电话会议确实让人感到失望和难过。

In terms of the new CFO, you know, it's one earnings call, right? Like, let's give the guy a chance. Not judged too quickly. Just off of a few minutes on earnings call.

就新任首席财务官而言，你知道，这只是一次收益电话会议而已，对吧？让我们给这个人一个机会，不要过快下结论，只是根据几分钟的收益电话会议。

Didn't help that Elon felt the need to cut him off twice. I think I don't know if it was once or twice, but one of the times, you know, it was kind of he was going down the path of talking about how like Tesla is still in the EV adopter, early adopter on the EV curve. You know, that comments, I was a little bit disappointed to hear because Tesla last call specifically spent time talking about how people need to stop thinking about how there's this EV market and there's this car market. And it's just one car market. And that's what it is. And that's what it should be judged by. So for the CFO to then comment about, you know, we're in the early adopter portion of the EV market or, you know, that wasn't the exact language he used, but sort of going down that thought process. No surprise to see, you know, the Tesla team cut him off on that. So that to me is a little bit disappointing comment. But again, let's not be super quick to judge here. Had he had the chance to finish the thought. Maybe it ends up differently, right?

埃隆（Elon）两次中断他，这并没有帮助。我不确定是一次还是两次，但其中一次，你知道，他有点走向谈论特斯拉仍然处于电动汽车采用者的早期阶段。你知道，那个评论让我有点失望，因为特斯拉上次通话明确提到人们需要停止思考有一个电动汽车市场和一个汽车市场。实际上只有一个汽车市场。这是它的本质，应该用这个来评判。所以对CFO来说，评论说我们处于电动汽车市场的早期采用者部分，或者说他没有使用确切的语言，但是沿着那个思路走。不奇怪看到特斯拉团队中断了他。对我来说，这是一个有点令人失望的评论。但是再次，让我们不要过于快速地判断。如果他有机会完成思考，也许结果会不同，对吧？

So those are kind of my thoughts so far. And yeah, obviously, you know, really, really like Zach, so just not having Zach there is going to be something that is not quite as exciting. So again, good questions here. I think hopefully, you know, some of that is helpful. And I think that'll kind of wrap it up here.

这些就是我目前为止的想法。显然，你肯定知道，我真的真的很喜欢扎克，所以没有扎克在那里会让人感觉不太令人兴奋。所以，再说一遍，这里提出了一些好问题。我希望其中一些能有所帮助。我想就到这里吧。

But again, just go back and listen to that first few minutes. I think it's always good to just go back and listen to the call again, especially once the impact of the call is fully sort of settled. Because that colors people's interpretations, you know, you're sitting there and you're listening and then you're maybe looking at the stock in the other window. I mean, I've got it on the screen, which is probably not the best thing anyway. But that's going to color people's reactions, right? If you're sitting there and Elon's talking and the stock is going down, it's going to make you feel probably not the best about what's being said. So better just kind of clear your head, go back, listen to it, read the transcript maybe, which isn't going to be colored by whatever mood Elon happens to be in, which as I've talked about probably doesn't have any relation to what he's talking about. So I think that's always just a good thing to do.

再说一次，回到开头几分钟听听。我觉得回过头去重新听电话总是好的，特别是在电话的影响完全消退之后。因为那会影响人们的解读，你坐在那里听着，也许在另一个窗口看着股票。我的意思是，我把它放在了屏幕上，这可能不是最好的选择。但这会影响人们的反应，对吧？如果你坐在那儿，伊隆在说话，股票却在下跌，那会让你对所说的话感到不太好。所以最好的办法就是放空自己，回过头去听一遍，也许阅读一下文字记录，这样不会受到伊隆当时心情的影响，我已经说过了，那可能与他所说的无关。所以我觉得这总是一个好的做法。

Alright, I'll wrap it up for today though. So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday, October 20th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，今天就到这里吧。如常感谢你的聆听。记得订阅并开启通知功能。你也可以在X平台上找到我，名为特斯拉播客，我们明天再见，在10月20日星期五的特斯拉日报中。谢谢。