Tesla Q3 2023 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast (Full Audio) - YouTube

So You You You You You You You You You You You You You You You Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Test loss third quarter 2023 Q&A webcast. My name is Martin Vika, VP of And I'm joined today by Elon Musk, and a number of other executives. During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. His comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filing statements.

大家下午好，欢迎参加2023年第三季度业绩测试问答网络直播。我是Martin Vika，担任副总裁。今天我们还邀请了埃隆·马斯克和其他一些高管加入我们。在本次通话中，我们将讨论业务前景并进行前瞻性陈述。他的评论是基于我们今天的预测和期望。实际事件或结果可能因各种风险和不确定性而有实质性差异，包括我们最近的申报文件中提到的风险。

During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the race and hand button to join the question queue. But before we jump into the Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

在今天的问答环节中，请将自己的问题限制在一个问题和一个后续问题上。请使用举手按钮加入提问队列。但在我们开始问答环节之前，埃隆有一些开场白。

Elon? Thank you, Martin. So just a Q3 recap. Our last quarter was impacted by downtime for global factory upgrades that will help us reduce cost per vehicle, as well as increased production. We remain focused on three main objectives, which is the cost reduction of our products, investments in artificial intelligence, and other growth projects, like optimus, and continued pre-casual generation.

谢谢，马丁。所以，这只是对第三季度的回顾。我们上个季度受到了全球工厂升级停产的影响，这将有助于我们降低每辆车的成本，同时增加产量。我们依然专注于三个主要目标，即产品成本的降低、对人工智能的投资以及其他增长项目，如Optimus，和持续的预先装配。

Regarding vehicle cost, our team was able to reduce the cost per vehicle further in Q3, despite headwinds from factory atel cost and wrap up of new factories. And we believe there's still meaningful room for improvement there.

关于车辆成本，尽管受到工厂设备成本和新工厂启动的阻力，我们团队在第三季度仍然成功降低了每辆车的成本。而且我们相信在这方面还有很大的提升空间。

Regarding autopilot and AI, our vehicles now driven over half a billion miles with FSD beta, full self-driving beta, and that number is growing rapidly. We recently completed a 10,000 GPU cluster of H100s. We think probably bring it into operation faster than anyone's ever brought to that much compute per unit time into production, since training is the fundamental limiting factor on progress with full self-driving and vehicle autonomy. We're also seeing significant promise with FSD version 12. This is the end-to-end AI where it's a photon count in controls out. Really, you can think of it as a large but stream coming in and a tiny bit stream going out, an impressing reality into a very small set of outputs, which is actually kind of how humans work. The vast majority of human data input is optics from our eyes. And so we are like the car photons in controls out with neural nets, just neural nets in the middle. It's very interesting to think about that. We will continue to invest significantly in AI development as this is really the massive game changer. And success in this regard in the long term, I think, has the potential to make Tesla's most valuable company in the world by far. If you have fully autonomous cars at scale and fully autonomous humanoid robots that are truly useful, it's not clear what the limit is.

关于自动驾驶和人工智能，我们的车辆目前已经在FSD测试版上行驶了超过50亿英里，并且这个数字正在快速增长。我们最近完成了一个由10,000个H100 GPU组成的集群。我们认为这可能是迄今为止任何人在单位时间内将如此强大的计算资源投入到生产中的最快速度，因为训练是全自动驾驶和车辆自主性改进的基本限制因素。我们还看到了FSD 12版本的显著潜力。这是端到端的人工智能，通过光子计数进行控制。实际上，你可以将其看作是一个大的数据流进入和一个很小的数据流流出，将现实印刻到一小组输出中，这实际上有点类似人类的工作方式。人类的绝大部分输入数据来自我们的眼睛的光学信号。因此，我们就像是车辆中的光子，通过神经网络进行控制，只不过中间是神经网络。这是一个非常有趣的想法。我们将继续大力投资于人工智能的发展，因为这真的是一个巨大的游戏改变者。从长远来看，如果能够实现大规模的全自动驾驶汽车和真正有用的全自动人形机器人，特斯拉有潜力成为世界上价值最高的公司，这个潜力无可限量。

Regarding energy storage, we deployed all gigawatt hours of energy of storage products in Q3. And as this business grows, the energy vision is becoming our highest margin business. Energy and service now contribute over half a billion dollars to quarterly profit.

关于能源储存方面，在第三季度我们部署了所有以千兆瓦小时为单位的能源储存产品。随着这一业务的增长，能源愿景正成为我们利润最高的业务。能源和服务如今对季度利润的贡献超过了五亿美元，占到了一半以上。

The Cybertruck, I know that people are excited about the Cybertruck. I am driven the car. It's an amazing product. I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in breaching volume production with the Cybertruck and then in making the Cybertruck cashflow positive. This is simply normal for when you've got a product with a lot of new technology or any new brand new vehicle program, but especially one that is as different to the product. And advanced as the Cybertruck, you will have problems proportionate to how many new things you're trying to solve at scale.

我知道人们对Cybertruck感到兴奋。我亲自驾驶过这款汽车，它是一款令人惊艳的产品。但我想强调的是，在实现Cybertruck的大规模生产以及让其获得盈利方面将面临巨大的挑战。这对于拥有许多新技术或全新品牌汽车项目的产品而言是正常的，尤其是像Cybertruck这样与以往产品截然不同且先进的汽车。你所尝试解决的新问题数量越多，相应的困难也会随之增加。

So I just want to emphasize that while I think this is potentially our best product ever, and I think it is our best product ever, it is going to be requiring immense work to reach volume production and be capital positive at a price that people can afford. Often people do not understand what is truly hard. That's why I say prototypes are easy production is hard. People think it's the idea or you make a prototype, you design a car. And as soon as the design car is, is there just anyone can do it? It does require taste. It does require effort to design a prototype. But the difficulty going from a prototype to a volume production is like 10,000% harder to get to volume production that to make the prototype in the first place. And then it is even harder than that to reach positive cashflow. That is why there have not been new cars start up that have been successful for 100 years, apart from Tesla. So, you know, I just want to temper expectations for cyber truck. It's a great product, but financially it will take a year to 18 months before it is a significant price of cashflow contributor. I wish there was some way to be different, but that's my best guess.

所以我想强调的是，虽然我认为这可能是我们有史以来最好的产品，而且我确实认为它是我们有史以来最好的产品，但它需要大量的工作才能达到批量生产，并且以人们负担得起的价格实现资本正收益。人们常常不明白真正的困难所在。这就是为什么我说原型很容易，而生产却很困难。人们认为这只是个想法，或者你制作一个原型，设计一辆车而已。设计出一辆原型需要品味，需要努力。但是从原型到批量生产的难度要比制作原型难上10000倍。然后要比那更加困难的是实现正的现金流。这就是为什么除了特斯拉以外，在过去的100年里没有新的汽车初创公司取得成功。所以，你知道，我只是想调整对Cyber Truck的期望。它是个很棒的产品，但从财务上来说，在它成为显著的现金流贡献者之前，可能需要一年到18个月的时间。我希望能有一些不同的方式，但这是我最好的猜测。

So, the demand is off the charts. We have over a million people who have reserved the car. So, it's not a demand issue, but we have to make it a price that people can afford. And it's saying the difficult things.

因此，需求是异常之高的。我们已有超过一百万人预订了这辆车。所以，这不是需求问题，但我们必须制定一个人们能够负担得起的价格。同时也说出了一些困难的事情。

In conclusion, we continue to focus on ramping production while maintaining a positive cash flow. And we continue to target expect to have around 1.8 billion vehicle deliveries as stated earlier this year. The Tesla AI team is, I think, one of the world's best, and I think it is actually by far the world's best when it comes to real-world AI. But I'll say that again, Tesla has the best real-world AI team on Earth, period. And it's getting better.

总结一下，我们继续专注于加快生产速度，同时保持良好的现金流。我们仍然目标定在今年早些时候提到的约18亿辆车的交付量。特斯拉的AI团队我认为是全球最好的团队，实际上在真实世界的AI领域中是迄今为止最好的。我再重申一次，特斯拉拥有全球最佳的真实世界AI团队，没有争议。而且，他们还在不断进步。

And lastly, I wanted to thank all of our employees who are making a lot of extra effort during uncertain times. Thank you very much for your hard work and the impact that you're making. Thank you very much, Elon, and our CFO YBAF have some opening remarks as well.

最后，我想感谢在这个不确定时期付出了许多额外努力的所有员工。非常感谢你们的辛勤工作和所产生的影响。非常感谢你们，Elon，我们的首席财务官YBAF也有一些开场白。

Thanks, Martin. A week of deliveries in Q3 outpace production, and we had yet another record quarter of profitability in our energy business. Congratulations to the Tesla team for the continued focus on operational excellence as we navigate through a period of economic uncertainty, higher interest rates, and shifting consumer sentiment.

谢谢，马丁。在第三季度，我们的交付量超过了生产量，能源业务再次实现创纪录的盈利季度。祝贺特斯拉团队在经济不确定、利率上升和消费者情绪变化的时期，继续专注于运营卓越。

As Elon mentioned, our Q3 operational and financial performance was impacted by planned downtowns for our factory upgrades. This was necessary to allow for further factory improvements and production rate increases. Despite such factory shutdowns, our cost per vehicle decreased to approximately 37,500. We saw sequential decreases in material cost and freight. Producing the cost of our vehicles is our top priority.

正如埃隆所提到的，我们第三季度的运营和财务表现受到了计划中的工厂升级的影响。这是为了进一步改善工厂并提高生产率而必要的。尽管有这样的工厂停产，我们每辆车的成本降低到了约37,500美元。我们的材料成本和运费也呈递减趋势。降低我们车辆的成本是我们的首要任务。

On the operating expenses front, R&D expenses continue to rise due to cyber truck prototype builds and pilot production testing, combined with spend on AI technologies like full-side driving, optimus, and dojo. We have and will continue to make investments in these areas, and hence our capital expenditure and R&D will continue to grow in the near term. However, our focus is to continue making investments through positive cash flow from operations. This year itself, we have generated operating cash flows of approximately $8.9 billion and three cash flows of approximately $2.3 billion.

在运营费用方面，由于电动卡车原型的建造和试制产品的测试，以及在全面驾驶、optimus和dojo等人工智能技术上的支出，研发费用持续上升。我们已经并将继续在这些领域进行投资，因此，我们的资本支出和研发将在近期继续增长。然而，我们的重点是通过运营现金流继续进行投资。仅今年一年，我们已经产生了约89亿美元的经营现金流，以及约23亿美元的自由现金流。

Other businesses are becoming more prominent on a standalone basis with energy business leading the charge primarily from the growth in megabyte departments. Our services and other businesses on a year-on-year basis also continue to show positive momentum as we benefit from our going fleet.

其他业务正在成为独立存在且越发重要，主要是能源业务在兆字节部门的增长推动下。我们的服务和其他业务在同比基础上也继续展现出正向势头，因为我们受益于我们不断发展壮大的业务网络。

As regards our pricing strategy, in addition to what we have shared before, I want to elaborate that most car buying happens with one or another form of financing. And hence, we also view pricing in terms of monthly costs for the customer. And therefore, as interest costs in the US have risen substantially, it has required us to adjust the price of our vehicles to keep the monthly cost in parity. We've tried to offset such adjustments via a focus on reducing costs. However, there is an inherent lag in cost reductions, which in turn impacts margins. To that extent, we recently announced a partner vehicle leasing program in the US, whereby you can get a standard rate model Y or as low as $3.99 a month.

关于我们的定价策略，除了之前分享的内容，我想再详细说明一下，大多数汽车购买都需要一种形式的融资。因此，我们也将定价视为客户每月费用的考量因素。因此，由于美国的利息成本大幅上升，我们不得不调整我们车辆的价格以保持每月费用的平衡。我们已经试图通过降低成本来抵消这种调整。然而，成本减少存在固有的滞后性，这反过来会影响利润率。为此，我们最近在美国推出了一个合作伙伴车辆租赁计划，您可以以每月仅3.99美元的标准费率租赁Model Y。

In conclusion, as we navigate through a challenging economic environment, we'll focus on reducing costs, maximizing delivery volumes and continuing making investments in the future, in particular, AI and other next-generation platform. We believe the strategy positions as well for the long term. Once again, I would like to thank the Tesla team for their efforts in the last four. Thank you very much. And now let's go to investor questions.

总结一下，在这个具有挑战性的经济环境中，我们将专注于降低成本、最大限度地增加交付量，并持续投资于未来，特别是人工智能和其他下一代平台。我们相信这一战略能为我们长期发展奠定良好的基础。再次，我想感谢特斯拉团队在过去四年中的努力。非常感谢。现在让我们转到投资者的问题。

The first investor question comes from Craig. How many cyber truck deliveries do you anticipate for 2024? I sippy to make an accurate guess at this point. Going back to what I said earlier, that the ramp is going to be extremely difficult. And like I said, there's no way around that. If you try to make, if we just try to do some copycat vehicle design of which there are literally 200 models that are slight variations on a theme in the combustion engine world. Just distinctions without a difference. Then it's really not that hard. But if you want to do something radical and innovative and something really special like the cyber truck, it is extremely difficult because there's something to copy. You have to invent not just the car, but the way to make the car. So the more uncharted the territory, the less predictable the outcome. Now I can say that if you say, well, where will things end up? I think we'll end up with roughly a quarter million cyber trucks a year. And I don't think we're going to reach that output right next year. I think we probably reach it sometime in 2025. That's my best guess. Thank you.

第一个投资者的问题来自克雷格。您预计2024年可交付多少辆Cybertruck？目前很难做出准确的猜测。回到我之前说过的话，产量的提升将会非常困难。就像我说的，没有什么捷径可走。如果我们只是尝试制造一些模仿的汽车设计，例如在燃油汽车领域有200多个几乎相似的变种车型，那就并不难。但是，如果您想要进行一些激进和创新的事情，像Cybertruck这样独特的车型，那将非常困难，因为没有可借鉴的。您不仅需要发明车本身，还需要发明制造车的方法。所以，越是未经探索的领域，结果就越难预测。现在我可以说，如果您问我，最后结果会是什么样子？我认为我们每年大约会生产25万辆Cybertruck。但我不认为明年我们会达到这个产量。我认为我们可能会在2025年左右达到这个产量。这只是我最好的猜测。谢谢。

The second question is, can you provide a progress update on the 4680 cell, particularly progress, though, performance improvements, and cost-saving South line on battery day. Thank you. Sure thing Martin 4680 cell production in Texas increased 40% quarter quarter. And gross to the Texas team for producing their 20 million cell off of line one. Texas is now our primary four to six eighty facility. We're heavily focused on quality scrap is down 40% quarter of a quarter with the increased volume and yield improvements cell costs consistently improved month over month within the quarter, although we have a lot more work to do to achieve our steady state goals. And that is our priority. The cyber truck cell with 10% higher energy than our model Y cell started production online to in Texas. This quarter we convert to building 100% cyber truck cells to simplify and focus the factory as we ramp all four lines in phase one over the next three quarters. And these two of the Texas 4680 facility is currently under construction. The additional four lines incorporate further capital efficiencies over phase one and our target is for them to start producing in late 2024.

第二个问题是，您能否提供关于4680电池的进展更新，特别是进展、性能改善和节约成本的南线在电池日方面。谢谢。 当然，马丁。德克萨斯州的4680电池生产季度增长了40%。感谢德克萨斯团队在一条生产线上生产了2000万个电池。德克萨斯现在是我们的主要4680工厂。我们非常注重质量，废品量在季度内减少了40%，随着产量的增加和产能的提高，电池成本在季度内持续改善。尽管我们还有很多工作要做才能实现稳定状态的目标，但这是我们的首要任务。 在德克萨斯，比我们的Model Y电池能量高10%的Cybertruck电池已经开始生产了。本季度，我们将全面转向生产100%的Cybertruck电池，以简化和专注于工厂，同时在接下来的三个季度内逐步推出所有四条生产线的第一阶段。德克萨斯的4680工厂目前正在建设中。额外的四条生产线将在第一阶段进一步提高资本效率，我们的目标是它们在2024年底开始生产。

Lastly, and Cato, we're retooling to enable large scale palette runs of our next generation cell designs. Cato's long term goal is to be the launch pad for new cells, one generation ahead of our mass production facilities, enabling faster iteration and smoother ramp ups of new designs. Thank you.

最后，Catov正在进行改装，以实现我们下一代电池设计的大规模生产。Catov的长期目标是成为新电池的发射平台，超越我们的大规模生产设施一个世代，从而实现新设计的更快迭代和更顺畅的推广。谢谢。

The next question from institutional investors. Could you please provide an update on capacity expansion plans for companies factories in Berlin and Austin, and the opening schedule of Gigafactory Mexico. Austin factory, the current priority is actually maximize the output from our existing lines by laser focus on efficiency improvement, as always maintaining a high quality and the reducing per unit cost will be as critical as growing the production volume. For Mexico, we're working on infrastructure and factory design and parallel with the engineering development of the new production that will be manufacturing there. So I can share for that. And next, we're laying the groundwork to begin construction and doing all the long lead items. But I think we want to just get a sense for the global economy is like before we go full tilt on the Mexico factory. I'm worried about the high interest rate environment that we're in. It's, I just can't have says enough that the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment. And as interest rates rise, the proportion of that monthly payment that is interest increases naturally. So, that's, if interest rates remain high, or if they could even hire, it's that much harder to for people to buy the car, they simply can't afford it. So, and we're tracking up with this point for Model Y to be the selling car and not just in revenue, but in unit volume. If you compare that to the other vehicles that are, you know, number two and number three and whatnot, they cost much less than our car. So, you know, we're just hitting low of large numbers situations here. I know people want to advertise and we are advertising. I think there is some. There's something to get there is something to be gained on the advertising fund. I don't think it's nothing. In point, people have a car that is great, but they cannot afford. It doesn't just really help. So, that's, that is really the thing that must be sold is to make the car portable. Or, you know, the average person can't buy it for any amount of money. Or they just, they can't afford it. They can't afford it. So, this is a big deal. Okay. Thank you very much.

下一个来自机构投资者的问题。请问您能否更新一下柏林和奥斯汀的公司工厂的扩建计划，并告知吉卡工厂墨西哥的开放时间表。关于奥斯汀工厂，当前的优先事项实际上是通过专注于提高效率来最大化我们现有生产线的产量，一如既往地保持高质量并降低单位成本将会至关重要，而不仅仅是增加产量。对于墨西哥，我们正在进行基础设施和工厂设计的工作，同时与新生产线的工程开发并行进行。所以我可以就此分享一些消息。接下来，我们正在为开始建设做一些铺垫工作和采购长周期物品。但我认为在我们全力投入墨西哥工厂之前，我们希望先了解全球经济的情况。我对我们现在所处的高利率环境感到担忧。我再次强调，绝大多数购车人士都关注的是每月付款金额。随着利率的上升，每月付款中的利息比例自然会增加。因此，如果利率保持高位甚至上升，人们购买汽车的难度就会增加，他们根本负担不起。因此，我们正在追踪Model Y在销售量方面能够超过其他车型，而不仅仅是在收入方面。如果与那些成本远远低于我们车型的其他车辆进行比较，你会发现我们面临着庞大的数字优势。我知道人们希望我们做广告，我们也在做广告。我认为有些东西是值得从广告基金中获得的。从某种意义上讲，如果人们有一辆无法负担的优秀汽车，这并没有多大帮助。因此，必须把车打造成大众能够负担得起的产品。或者说，普通人无论愿意花多少钱，都能够购买得起。这是一件大事。非常感谢。

The next question is, when do you expect model three highland to be available in the US? I just wanted to address that. Unfortunately, we don't answer product related questions and timings on earnings calls. So, let's go to the next one.

下一个问题是，你们预计Model 3高地款什么时候在美国上市？我只是想澄清一下。不幸的是，在财报电话会议中，我们不会回答与产品相关的问题或上市时间。那我们继续下一个问题吧。

Current social consensus assumes that Tesla will deliver 2.3 million vehicles in 2024, representing 28% growth versus 2023 guidance. Is this growth rate achievable without any mass market launches in 2024? And when does Tesla expect to return to its 50% long term cager? Next to the question. When you look at 2024, there are a lot of moving pieces. You know, I'm just talking about what is happening in the micro, make environment. So, we're focused on growing our volumes in a very cost efficient manner. And are careful reviewing all our options and we'll be able to provide a much more meaningful update at our next earnings call. Yeah, I mean, there is the state in the obvious. It is not possible to have a compound growth rate of 50% forever or you will exceed the mass of the known universe. So, but I think we will work very rapidly much faster than any other car company on earth by far. Thank you.

当前社会共识认为，特斯拉将在2024年交付230万辆车，相比2023年的指引将增长28%。在2024年是否没有进行大规模市场推出的情况下实现这一增长率？特斯拉预计何时能够返回到长期50%的复合年增长率？在关于2024年的问题上，有很多变动的因素。我只是在谈论微观环境中正在发生的事情。因此，我们专注于以非常成本有效的方式增加产量，并仔细审查所有选择，我们将能够在下一次财报电话会议上提供更有意义的更新。是的，我的意思是再明显不过了。永远以50%的复合年增长率增长是不可能的，否则你将超过已知宇宙的质量。但我认为我们将比地球上任何其他汽车公司都快得多地迅速解决这个问题。谢谢。

Next question is, do you have an approximate timeline in mind for the robot taxi driven or non driven. What excites you most about how this project is progressing. The robot axis like that's fairly non driven. The. I guess I'm I'm very excited about our progress with autonomy. The end to end nothing but nets. I saw driving software is amazing. I drives me all around Austin with no interventions. So. You know, this is clearly the right move. So it's really, really pretty amazing. And obviously that same software and approach will enable optimists to do useful things and. And enable optimists to to learn. How to do things simply by looking. So. Extremely exciting.

下一个问题是，您对机器人出租车的驾驶或无人驾驶有一个大致的时间表吗？对这个项目的进展，您最感兴趣的是什么？像那样几乎不需要人工驾驶的机器人出租车是令人兴奋的。我认为我们在自主驾驶方面取得的进展非常令人兴奋。从头到尾的无干预驾驶软件让我大开眼界。它能够在奥斯汀全程无干预地将我载到目的地。所以，这显然是正确的举措，真的非常令人惊讶。很明显，同样的软件和方法将使机器人能够完成有用的事情，并且使机器人能够通过观察学会如何做事。非常令人激动。

In long term. As I mentioned before. Given that economic output is. Number of people times productivity. If you no longer have a constraint on. People effectively you've got a human robot that can do as much as you'd like. Your economy is. Why is the infinite. Tans and purposes. So. I don't think anyone is going to do it better than Tesla. Not by a long shot. The first dynamics is impressive, but the robot lacks a brain. Like the. Visitor bars or. Yeah, thanks. And then you also need to be able to design the. You know what such way that it can be mass manufacturing. And then at some point the robots will manufacture the robots. Now, so we need to make sure that there's a good place for humans in that future. And we do not create some variants of the terminator. Outcome. So we're going to put a lot of it into localize control of the human robot. So you know, basically anyone will be able to shut it off locally. And you can't change that. Even if you. Like a software update can change that it has to be hard coded. Thank you.

从长期来看，就如我之前提到的，经济产出是人口数量乘以生产力。如果你不再受到人口限制，实际上你拥有了一个可以按你意愿工作的人类机器人。你的经济就变成了无穷大。因此，我认为没有人能比特斯拉做得更好。远远超过其他竞争者。第一个动力学是令人印象深刻的，但机器人缺乏大脑。就像访客酒吧一样。是的，谢谢。然后你还需要能够设计机器人，以便能够进行大规模制造。然后在某个时候，机器人将制造机器人。因此，我们需要确保未来中有一个良好的人类定位。我们不能创造出终结者的变体结果。因此，我们打算将大部分控制权交给人类机器人的本地化控制。基本上任何人都可以当地关闭它，这是不能改变的。即使你进行软件更新也无法改变，它必须是硬编码的。谢谢。

So the question is why was the price dropped on FSD if it is getting better and robots actually is expected so soon. Well, we just wanted to make it more affordable. Ask them over will try it. Yeah, I think over time the. Price of FSD will increase proportionate to its value. So it regard the current price as a cover. Temporary low. Thank you.

那么问题是，既然全自动驾驶（FSD）技术正在改进，机器人也将很快到来，为什么FSD的价格却下降了？嗯，我们只是希望使它更具价格实惠。让他们过来试试吧。是的，我认为随着时间推移，FSD的价格将与其价值成比例地增加。因此，当前价格只是一种掩饰，是一个临时的低价。谢谢。

The next question is again on FSD Mercedes is accepting legal liability for when it's level three autonomous driving system drive pilot is active. Is this not planning to accept legal liability for FSD? And if so when. Well, there's a lot of people that assume we have legal liability judging by the lawsuits. We're certainly not being left out of the hook on that front. Whether we like would like to or wouldn't like to. So I think it's important to remember for everyone that Mercedes system is limited to. He roads and Nevada and some certain cities in California doesn't work in the snow or the fog. It must have a weed car marked by his only 40 miles per hour. Our system is meant to be holistic and. Driving any conditions, so we obviously have a much more capable approach, but. With those kind of limitations. Really not very useful. No, I think. So some people understand the profundity of Tesla AI. System. Very prepared to very few. It's basically baby AGI. It has to understand reality in order to try. Maybe maybe AGI. Thank you.

下一个问题再次涉及到FSD，梅赛德斯（Mercedes）在其三级自动驾驶系统“Drive Pilot”启用时承担法律责任。那么他们有没有计划承担FSD的法律责任呢？如果是，那么什么时候承担？嗯，很多人通过诉讼认为我们负有法律责任。在这方面，我们当然不会被遗漏。无论我们喜不喜欢。所以我认为对于每个人来说，重要的是要记住梅赛德斯系统有一定限制。它只适用于内华达州和加利福尼亚州的某些城市，不适用于雪天或雾天。它必须有一个只限40英里每小时的有机车道。我们的系统设计目标是全方位驾驶，适用于任何条件，所以显然我们的方法更加强大，但是受到了这些限制，实际上并没有什么用。不，我认为一些人了解特斯拉的AI系统的深远意义。只有极少数人能够完全准备好。它基本上是“婴儿AGI”。它必须理解现实才能尝试。也许是“婴儿AGI”。谢谢。

The next question on optimus will optimus be working on Gigafactory lines next year? If so, how many would you guess will be deployed? I think this point we. I'm not ready to discuss details of the optimize program. But we will make. Provide periodic updates online. So as you can see, where you know optimus a year ago. And now it can do yoga. So. A few years from now. Can probably do ballet. Sounds good.

优佳接下来的问题是，优佳明年会在Gigafactory生产线上工作吗？如果是的话，你猜测会有多少投放？在这个问题上，我还没有准备好讨论优佳计划的细节。但我们会定期在线上提供更新。所以你可以看到，你一个年前知道的优佳，现在能做瑜伽了。所以，再过几年，可能还能跳芭蕾舞。听起来不错。

And the last question from investors is. Neural net path planning represent a significant advance in capability and safety for FSD. What steps is Tesla taking to make this technology available outside the US? Yeah, our approach has been to try to get it. The more places we try to make it work, the harder the problem is. So the reason we don't do it in all countries, so it would take much longer to make it work anywhere at all. So. That's why it's currently just North America. And also for most parts of the world, you have to get approval before deploying things. Whereas in the US, you can deploy things at risk or at least take liability for your flight. So it's a. So we only want to go through that extensive program. When we think it's kind of. Ready for prime time in that country.

投资者的最后一个问题是，神经网络路径规划在全自动驾驶（FSD）领域代表了能力和安全性方面的重大进展。特斯拉在使这项技术在美国以外地区可用方面采取了哪些措施？是的，我们的方法是努力尝试让它在更多地方运行，但问题也就越难。因此，我们不在所有国家都实施该技术，否则需要更长时间才能使其在任何地方都运作良好。这就是为什么当前仅在北美地区进行的原因。而且，在世界大部分地区，你必须在部署之前获得批准。而在美国，你可以冒着风险部署或至少对你的飞行承担责任。因此，我们只想在我们认为该国家已经准备好投入使用的时候执行这个广泛的计划。

I apologize. It's not out in those countries, but. We keep. Anyways, to make it better. And it really needs to drive. Drive it needs to drive. Such that it exceeds the. Even on sale of lives. Significantly exceeds the probability of entry over human. They are significantly better. Low low a low probability of entry than a human by far. I think we're tracking to that point very quickly. Obviously in the past, I've been overly optimistic about this. The reason I've been overly optimistic is that the progress tends to. Sort of look like a log a log curve. Which is that you have. Rapid initial improvement improvements. And that if you were to extrapolate that. Rapid. Really linear rate of improvement. You get to self driving. Quickly, but then. The rate of improvement curves over logarithmically. As soft asymptote. That's not happened several times. I would characterize that progress. Stacked log curves. I think that's also true in other parts of AI like. LOMs and whatnot. Series of stacked log curves. Each log curve gets higher than the last one. Keep stacking the move. Keep stacking logs eventually. Get to FSD. Thank you.

对不起。在那些国家尚未上市，但是我们会继续努力。无论如何，我们希望能够进一步改善它。它确实需要驱动。需要有效地驱动。以超过其他任何情况下的概率。甚至比人类更有效。它们比人类好很多，进入的概率非常低。我认为我们迅速朝着那个目标前进。显然在过去，我对此过于乐观了。我过于乐观的原因是进展往往呈现出对数曲线的形式。你会看到快速的初期改进。如果你继续推断这种快速线性改进的速率，你会迅速达到无人驾驶的水平。但是，改进的速率会以对数的方式递减。以软渐近线为界。这已经发生过多次。我认为这种进展可以被描述为叠加的对数曲线。我认为在人工智能的其他领域，如深度学习等，也存在类似情况。一系列叠加的对数曲线，每个曲线都比上一个更高。不断叠加曲线最终会达到全自动驾驶。谢谢。

Let's now go to analyst questions. The first question comes from Will Stein from Truist. Will please go ahead and unmute yourself. Great. Thanks so much for taking my question and thanks for all the updates today. We learned earlier on the call. It sounds like you don't think the truck will ramp to. Significant volume until it's third year of production. Should we have a similar anticipation for the ramp of the next gen platform? Or is there any reason that we should be maybe more optimistic or pessimistic about the ramp profile there? Thank you. Yeah, I mean, to be clear, it's not really the third year of production. It's kind of like the 18th month of production is roughly. My guess. So it's just that they happen to still happen. So it starts this year spans next year and gets to 2025. So technically there are three calendar years in there, but there's actually only 18, 18 months, not three years. I would be very disappointed if it took us and that would be shocking if it took us three years. But 18 months from initial deliveries. To have to reach volume and and reach prosperity with an immense. I can't tell you how much blood sweat and tears level required to achieve that is just. That green. I've been through it many times. And then here we go again. You know. Similar path for the next gen platform. I mean, there's like unique complexity to cyber.

现在我们来听分析师的问题。第一个问题来自Truist的威尔·斯坦。威尔，请解除静音并提问。很好。非常感谢您回答我的问题，也感谢您今天的所有更新。我们之前在电话会议上得知，您似乎认为卡车的产量在第三个生产年才会大幅增加。那么，对于下一代平台的产量增长，我们是否应该有相似的预期？或者我们是否应该对其产量增长情况更加乐观或悲观？谢谢。是的，我是说，并不是真的要等到第三个生产年。大致上是在生产的第18个月左右，这只是我的猜测。所以，它们碰巧还在这几年之间。从今年开始到明年，一直到2025年。技术上确实有三个日历年在里面，但实际上只有18个月，而不是三年。如果需要我们三年才能做到这一点，我会非常失望，那将是令人震惊的。但从最初交付货物到达产量并走向繁荣，需要付出多少心血和汗水，这是无法言传的。我经历过很多次。现在我们又要再一次经历这个过程。对于下一代平台，走的道路也是类似的。我的意思是，建造Cybertruck有着独特的复杂性。

Yeah. Yeah, maybe cyber truck is speaking. Yeah, I mean, we dug our own grave with cyber trucks. Nobody in general, like everybody, big digs are great better than themselves. And so. You know, it is. You know, some of those. Special product that comes along only once in a long while. I just incredibly difficult to. Bring to market to reach volume to be price per us. It's it's fundamental to the nature of the the new.

是的。是的，可能是指Cyber Truck呢。是啊，我的意思是，我们用Cyber Truck自掘坟墓了。一般来说，没有人，就是每个人，都比自己更喜欢大挖掘工程。所以嘛，你知道的，这样的产品非常特别，很久才会出现一次。但是，把它带到市场，实现销量和合理定价，真的非常困难。这与新事物的本质是密切相关的。

So now the. Sort of high volume low cost. Smaller vehicle is. Actually much more conventional in terms of like the technologies were putting into it. We didn't have to invent how to bend full hard stainless steel or that mega. 9,000 ton castings or the largest hot stamping in the world. New. Yeah, high voltage, low voltage architectures. It's it's learning from everything we've done. So we hope that we'll ramp faster than the technology. We also have a roofless investigation exercise.

所以现在这款体积较小、成本较低的车辆实际上在技术上更加传统。我们不需要发明如何弯曲全硬不锈钢，也不需要那个超大的9,000吨铸件或全球最大的热冲压技术等。而是采用了新的高压、低压架构。我们从过往的经验中汲取教训。因此，我们希望在技术上能够更快推广。同时，我们还进行了无顶部的调查研究。

Yeah, we did significantly less parts and yeah, your only is the slowest part. And if you have less of those, that means you could probably do faster. Yes, exactly. I mean, that's it. It's, you know, it's so. So pretty revolutionary and how we're going to build it. It is. Yes, it's it's a. The manufacturing approach for the high volume small vehicle is a revolutionary. I'm not level revolution or quite in the same way as the savage. I think it will be. Quite a past round.

是的，我们做的零部件要少得多，而且你的部分也是最慢的。而且如果你有更少的部分，那就意味着你可能可以更快地完成。是的，确实如此。我的意思是，就是这样。它，你知道的，是如此地。所以在我们的制造方式上，它是非常具有革命性的。是的，它是这样的。这是一个为大量小型车辆设计的制造方法，具有革命性。我觉得这会是一个相当轰动的。

So as I was saying, we're doing everything possible to simplify that vehicle in order to achieve. A units per minute level that. Is unheard of in the order industry. Yeah, I mean, the same location makes it easier to automate. It also makes it a lot of cost. Yes, it's intrinsically lower cost. Yeah. This is because there is. It'll be cool, but it's you. It's not meant to be. You know, with. You know, or magic. So. Can get you from a to be. It'll be. So beautiful, but it's a. It's a utilitarian. It's utility. That's not 14 inches of travel. It's a suspension. Yeah, as an example. Yes. So. I mean, the cyber truck has a lot of bells and whistles.

正如我所说的，我们正在尽一切可能简化那辆车，以达到在订购业中闻所未闻的每分钟单位水平。是的，我的意思是，相同的地点使自动化变得更容易。这也节省了很多成本。是的，本质上成本更低。是的。这是因为它是酷的，但它不是为了展示或魔术。所以，可以把你从A点带到B点。它会变得非常漂亮，但它是一个实用的工具。它是实用性的。这不是14英寸的悬挂行程。是的，举个例子。是的。我的意思是，Cybertruck有很多花哨的小玩意儿。

All right, thank you very much. Let's go to Pierre Farragou from use read research. Hey, can you hear me? Yes. Yes. Hey, I have a first like a follow up question on the. And pricing and adoption, so I agree with you that as FSD improves, we should see its value increasing, but I guess like the ultimate. The value of FSD, which is to be able to handle like. A robot taxi is not going to necessarily interest everybody and you have a bit of a degraded version that would be like a chauffeur service where the car drives by itself, but you still have to be in the car. And around and then there is like the hands on eyes on the version of the service. And I guess, you know, there should be like much lower cost lower feature kind of. But the violence of the service that could have a very large penetration on your install base and more expensive one that would remain at the lower penetration level. So I'm just wondering if you're taking that.

好的，非常感谢。那么我们来听一下来自优斯研究的皮埃尔·法拉古的发言。嘿，你能听到我说话吗？是的。是的。嘿，我有一个关于定价和采用方面的追问。我同意你的观点，随着全自动驾驶系统的改进，我们应该会看到它的价值增加，但我想说的是，全自动驾驶系统的最终价值，并不一定能吸引所有人，因为我们还有一个稍微降级版本的驾驶员服务，汽车可以自动驾驶，但你仍然需要在车内跟踪和监管。而且，我觉得，这种服务可能会有更低的成本和较低的功能。与此同时，还有一种更高成本、功能更多的版本。我猜想，这种服务的强度可能会对你们的市场渗透率产生影响，更便宜的一种可能会有更大的市场渗透率，而更昂贵的一种则会保持较低的市场渗透率。所以我想知道你们是否考虑了这一点。

And last but not least, like the simplest version of FSD are available and are going to work from a technical perspective, probably before like the ultimate robot taxi version can work if ever. And so I'm wondering how you take that into account in how you're thinking like the financial contribution of a FSD over time, and whether you could evolve your pricing along that kind of tears to increase adoption.

最后但同样重要的是，最简单版本的全自动驾驶（FSD）已经可用并且从技术角度而言将能够正常工作，或许会早于最终的无人驾驶出租车版本能够运行。因此，我想知道您如何考虑随着时间推移FSD的财务贡献，以及您是否可以根据这种发展关系调整定价，以增加采用率。

Yeah, I mean, the. If we're a ton of a spickle. I think you're you know sort of the economics of a autonomous vehicle are truly astounding in a positive way. And you look at past vehicles today, they only get about 10 to 12 hours of usage per week that's. If you drive an hour and a half a day on average. That's roughly 10 hours a week out of 168 hours. And then there's also you're going to have parking and insurance. You got to take care of the car. It's like there's a lot of overhead. So, I mean, yeah. It's like the economics of the system are just insanely positive. Given that the car, like all of the cars were making and have made for a while, we believe a capable of full autonomy. So then if you're able to say, increase the utility of that car by a factor of five, which slowly means that you've been used for maybe 50 hours a week. Out of 168. So just all notice your source. That's what seems less than the third of the hours of the week. This is doing something useful. You've increased the value of that by five, but it's still cost the same. Like you have something, then we're a hardware company with software markets.

是的，我的意思是这样的。如果我们有大量的自动驾驶车辆。我认为你知道自动驾驶车辆的经济效益是非常惊人的，而且是积极的。如果你看看目前的车辆，它们每周只能使用10到12个小时。如果平均每天开车一个半小时，那就是大约每周10个小时，而一周总共有168个小时。还有停车和保险问题，你还要照顾车子。这些都是一大堆额外开销。所以，我的意思是，系统的经济学效益真是令人难以置信的积极。鉴于我们制造的所有汽车都有能力实现全自动驾驶。因此，如果你能将这辆车的效用提高5倍，这意味着可能每周使用50个小时，而每周总共168个小时。你已经将其价值提高了5倍，但成本仍然相同。就像我们是一家以硬件为主、拥有软件市场的公司一样。

Here do you have a follow up? Yes, I have a key to your friend to speak for you. They have that's okay. It's about like your gross margin in the quarter. Could you give us a sense of like in how the gross margin evolved sequentially how much was the impact of idle costs. How much was like the sequential benefit, I imagine of production ramping at Berlin and Austin. And then I saw like this massive jump in the energy storage. Very strong positive surprise. So if you can give us the background on that and tell us, you know how we should think about that gross margin going forward. Thanks for that question. So in terms of you have a few different aspects of your question. So for if I just look at from Q three perspective. You know, obviously factory idle time had an impact. It did impact by when I won't give you the exact percentage, but it had decent impact for the quarter. And, you know, when you look at the other pieces which we're trying to do. We did see certain of our other factories ramping up pretty well. Right. And they actually contributed pretty well to the margin for this quarter. In fact. One of the factories, pretty, getting pretty close to in terms of for unit costs to where we are for another established factor which is three months. So that that was a positive in the quarter. When it comes to energy margins, you know, the megapack deployment was the key driver there. And that product has done well. I mean, on the Costco also we've been able to do a lot there. But I do want to caution that you know megapack deployments are a bit lumpy. So, yes, we had a great quarter this period, but depending upon where we are trying to deploy that product in the war in different markets. You would see that's where there would be. Downer pressure on deployment because of us trying to get the product to that back. Yeah, product and product and transit. Yes. Okay. Thank you very much.

你们有后续的计划吗？是的，我可以找你的朋友来替你说话。他们没问题。主要是关于你们上一季度的毛利率。你能告诉我们毛利率是如何逐步发展的以及停工成本对其的影响有多大吗？同时，柏林和奥斯汀工厂的生产扩大可能会对毛利率产生多大的积极影响。然后我还看到了储能方面的巨大增长，非常令人惊喜。所以，如果你能告诉我们背后的原因，以及我们应该如何看待未来的毛利率。非常感谢你的问题。关于你的问题，有几个不同的方面。就第三季度而言，工厂的停工时间显然对其产生了影响。我不会给出确切的百分比，但在这个季度对其产生了相当大的影响。另外，我们正在努力进行其他方面的工作。我们确实看到其他一些工厂的生产扩大得相当好。实际上，它们在这个季度的利润贡献相当大。实际上，其中一个工厂的单位成本已经非常接近我们另一个已经成熟的工厂，这是一个积极的因素。关于能源方面的利润率，我们的巨型储能项目是主要推动因素。这个产品表现良好。在储能产品方面，我们也在Costco取得了很大的进展。但我要警告大家，巨型储能项目的部署有时会出现大起大落的情况。所以，是的，我们在这个季度表现出色，但取决于我们在不同市场上部署这个产品的位置，就会对部署造成压力，因为我们要把产品运送到对应的市场。好的，谢谢你们。

Let's go to road lash from both research. So, you're all to feel free to unmute yourself. Thanks. Really nice to see the rate of vehicle cost improvement despite the downtime that you took. You've taken now about $2,000 out of the average vehicle costs over the past year. Can you give us maybe a sense of the rate of improvement that you see. The changes that you alluded to the factory changes you alluded to. Is there a way maybe to convey the speed of improvement on your existing product from here. And then related to that. Can you share the timing of your next gen that the lower price product that you talked about earlier this year. Yeah. So, just in terms of product margins, there are lots of puts and takes when you look at this. And there are certain things which we control and there's certain things which we don't control. You know, we get, we expect that we'll get some benefits from our cost reduction efforts, which are on the way. On the other hand, we just finished a factory of rates late in Q three. Some of these factors are still in the early down phase in Q four. We're still not up to where we want those factors to be so they'll impact in the near term. Plus, like, you know, mentioned, we're going to be ramping cyber truck, which is going to be another head when which we're dealing with. On top of all the, you know, there's overall uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, which even makes it harder to predict precisely as to where we land. Yes, this is something which, you know, it's, it's an evolving thing which we're observing every day and reacting to it on a daily basis. I would just say that on the cost reduction efforts like we, we are not. We're unflagging in our pursuit of additional cost downs for 2024. We do have a good pipeline of them and work on both the engineering side and the factory operation side. And, you know, our intention is to like maintain or exceed the trend that you saw. Trying as hard as possible can. The timing of the next gen product. Can you share that? I know at this time. Okay.

让我们从研究的两方面来看待道路抽搐。所以，你们随时可以解除静音状态，感谢。尽管你们经历了停工时间，但仍然很高兴看到车辆成本的改善率。在过去的一年里，你们已经将平均车辆成本降低了大约2000美元。你能否给我们一个你们所看到的改善速度的概念？你们提到的工厂变化，是否有一种方式来表达现有产品的改进速度？然后与此相关，你能否分享一下你们早些时候提到的下一代低价产品的时间表？就产品利润率而言，有很多变数。有些我们可以控制，有些则不能。我们预计我们将从成本降低措施中获得一些好处，这些措施正在进行中。另一方面，我们刚刚在第三季度末完成了一些工厂的改造。有些因素仍处于早期下降阶段，这将在短期内产生影响。而且，正如你所提到的，我们还将推出赛博卡车，这将是另一个我们需要处理的挑战。除此之外，在宏观经济环境中存在着总体不确定性，这使得精确预测变得更加困难。是的，这是一个我们每天都在观察并每天都在应对的不断发展的事情。我只想说，在成本降低方面，我们对2024年的额外成本下降毫不松懈。我们在工程和工厂运营两方面都有一个良好的改进计划。我们的意图是保持或超越你们看到的趋势。尽力而为。下一代产品的时机，你能分享一下吗？我知道现在还不行。

And just as a follow up, obviously price is also a driver of demand, but it that's obviously not happening in a vacuum. And you mentioned that I think you mentioned that at some point during this call that you're also maybe hitting the law of large numbers on some of your products. Can you just share how you're thinking about pricey elasticity just at this point and in this macro environment. And any thoughts along those lines.

顺便一提，显然价格也是需求的驱动因素，但这当然不是在真空中发生的。你提到过，可能在此次通话中你还提到了在某些产品上遇到了大数定律。你能否分享一下你对价格弹性的看法，特别是在当前的宏观环境下。还有什么其他的想法。

I think that this very significant price elasticity. I mean, to totally frank, if I car class the same as a rev board over to buy a wrap for. Or at least that very unlikely to. It's worth noting that a lot of these incentives like the tax credit or not. But they're actually very difficult for the average person to access because they most people do not have 10 grand, you know, for even $75 for a dollar is running a hole in their bank account. A lot of large number of people are living paycheck to paycheck and with with a lot of debt, they could credit card debt more debt. So, yeah, it's a that's that's reality for most people. It's, it's sometimes difficult for people who are, you know, high income numbers, you know, and I'd say hi, be like.

我认为这是一个非常显著的价格弹性。我的意思是，坦率地说，如果我把我的车级别定为与购买包装的划板一样，要么至少是非常不可能的。值得注意的是，像税收抵免之类的许多激励措施并不适用于大多数人。因为对于大多数人来说，他们没有10,000美元，甚至没有75美元来作为洞穴消耗他们的银行账户。很多人还要维持着工资不足以维持生活，同时背负着很多债务，包括信用卡债务。所以，是的，对于大多数人来说，这是现实。对于高收入群体来说，有时对他们来说也很困难，比如我所说的“高”。

Someone who's earning over $200,000 a year to understand what life is like for someone who is earning 50 or 60 or 70,000 dollars a year. Most people. So, so that like for a lot of people like these these tax credits just that they can't they can't front $75 for $18 months or even six months to get for the tax credit and they actually don't. In some cases, even have that.

年收入超过20万美元的人可能难以理解年收入5万、6万或7万美元的人的生活是什么样的。但大多数人的生活都是如此。对于很多人来说，他们无法承担支付75美元的费用来等待18个月甚至六个月以获得税收抵免，事实上他们甚至不具备这样的能力。

And I'm sorry, I read all those in taxes. So, you know, it's it. So it's really just the vast majority of people is how much money they have to pay immediately and how much per month. That's it. And I think it's tough right there. Great call. Exactly. It's not a, you know, so nice to get these like, you know, honestly, it's like somewhat correlates with the why doesn't everyone work from home crowd. I mean, this is like some real mariachi and advice from people to say why does everyone work from home. Like, what about all the people that have to come to the factory and and fill the cars. And fill the people that have to go to the restaurant and make your food and deliver your food. It's like, what are you talking about you. I mean, how to tap from reality doesn't work from home crowd have to be. And so they take advantage of all those who do cannot work from home.

对不起，我读了所有这些关于税收的内容。所以，你知道的，就是这样。实际上，绝大多数人只关心他们立即要支付多少钱以及每个月要支付多少钱。就是这样。我认为这非常困难。非常正确。这不是一个令人愉快的问题，你知道的，这与为什么不每个人都在家工作的那些人有些相符。我的意思是，这些人真的提供了一些建议，说为什么不每个人都在家工作。那么，那些必须去工厂填充汽车的人呢，那些必须去餐厅制作食物和送餐的人呢？你在说什么呢？我是说，那些不工作的人能够摆脱现实吗？所以，他们利用了所有那些不能在家工作的人。

So, I mean, you have to say, like, why did I sleep in the factory so many times, because it mattered. So, so I just can't emphasize how important cost is. It's not an optional thing for most people. It is a necessary thing. We have to make our cars more affordable. So people can buy it and and and I, you know, I keep harping on this interest thing, but I mean, it's just. It just right raises the cost of the car. I mean, we're looking at an internal analysis, which. And are we. If you like we think is is more or less on track that. When you look at the cost or the price reductions we've made in. So, I say the Model Y. And you compare that to how much people's monthly payment has risen to interest rates. The price of the Model Y is almost unchanged. If you factor in the Indian and trust it. Yes, which is the thing that matters. It's the monthly. It's how much money to put down and do they literally have that in the bank account will check that out.

所以，我的意思是，你必须说，为什么我会在工厂里睡那么多次，因为这很重要。我无法再强调成本的重要性了。对于大多数人来说，这不是可选的。这是必要的。我们必须让我们的汽车更加经济实惠。这样人们才能购买它。而且我一直在强调利率的问题，但我的意思是。这只会增加汽车的成本。我们正在进行一项内部分析。我们认为目前情况还比较符合预期。当你比较我们在Model Y上降价的幅度和人们每月支付的利率增长时，Model Y的价格几乎没有变化。如果考虑进印度和信任成本，情况就会不同。是的，这才是最重要的。月供是关键，他们是否有足够的钱付首付款，我们需要检查一下。

Well, what is the monthly payment and it doesn't matter how that must be payment is principal interest or whatever it's just a number and that number has to. Not cause their bank category negative. That's it. So. You know, going from near zero interest rates to the current very high interest rates. The actual monthly payment is basically the same. It's just a bunch more of it is going to interest. And there are some some incremental challenges beyond that, which is. The difficulty of getting credit at all has increased. And so. The number of people who simply can't get credit. Period. Even if they've got a job and everything's solid that. You know, the, the banks are. You know. A little gun shy on handing out credit. Given that a bunch of them kick the bucket earlier this year.

嗯，月付款是多少并不重要，不管是本金、利息还是其他东西，它只是一个数字，而这个数字必须保持正数，不能导致银行的欠款。就是这样。所以，我们从接近零利率到现在非常高的利率，实际每月付款基本相同，只是其中很大一部分要支付给利息。除此之外，还存在一些逐渐增加的挑战。这就是，即使有工作并且一切都很稳定，获取信贷的难度也增加了。因此，有些人根本无法获得信贷。尽管他们有工作，一切都很稳定。毕竟，今年年初倒闭的银行有很多。

And there's also just fewer options, even if they plan that credit. There's a few banks together. This is like this your banks will exist. Well, it's your bank does not exist. You have to establish a relationship with a new bank. And. You know, so. A lot of regional banks are, you know, buying and. I mean, even credit suites. I mean, geez, that's that was a shocker. You know, you know, like a hundred and sixty year old. If Swiss institution. That doesn't exist anymore. That's mind blowing. And I think there's still quite a few shoots used to drop on the bad credit situation. Resid, I mean, commercial real estate obviously is. In a terrible shape. You know, credit card debt has been rising. Significantly, the credit card interest rates are usurious. It's over 20% interest rates, meaning like which over time is just becomes. I was extremely punishing because if someone is paying 20% interest on the credit cost means they cannot pay them off. And you cannot pay them off and you still recruiting interest at 20%. You had that's headed to a bad place. Thank you. Let's go to next question from George from kind of courts. Thank you for taking my question. Just to focus on the cost. Per vehicle, you know, coming down in future quarters as you discussed. In your written remarks, I'm curious as to what the levers of that could be. Is it more scale more factory utilization? Is it material cost reductions? The things like gigacasting. I mean, you just kind of give us some data points to give us confidence that that's going to come down over time. And if I can sneak one in, please, there are press reports. And I know how perilous it is to believe some of these. But they say that you've included radar as an option in some model wise in China. And I just here to ask if that's true. And if so, why? Thank you.

而且选择也比较少，即使他们计划使用信用卡。只有几家银行可以一起使用。就好像你的银行不存在一样。你必须与一家新银行建立关系。很多地区性银行也在购并中。比如瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）也是如此。天哪，真是个让人震惊的消息。你知道的，就像一个有160年历史的瑞士机构。现在它已经不存在了。这简直让人难以置信。我认为在坏信用情况下还有很多风险。房地产市场显然处于糟糕状态。你知道的，信用卡债务一直在不断增加。信用卡利率非常高。超过20%的利率，这意味着随着时间的推移利息将会爆炸性增长。这对于那些付出20%利息的人来说实在是一种极为惩罚性的情况，因为这意味着他们无法偿还债务。而若无法偿还债务而又以20%的利息再次借贷，那就是一种恶性循环。谢谢。下一个问题来自乔治, 来自Kindle的报道。感谢你回答我的问题。我对于未来几个季度每辆车的成本下降表示关注，正如你在书面发言中所提到的。我想知道其中的调控方式是什么。是规模更大，工厂利用率更高？还是原材料成本降低？像gigacasting这样的事情。我希望你能提供一些数据点，让我们对其未来的降低有信心。如果可以的话，还有一个问题，有媒体报道说你们已经在中国的一些Model Y车型中将雷达作为选项包含进去了。我想问这是否属实，如果是为什么要这样做。谢谢。

We've got included radar. We have radar as a Tesla design radar experiment in the model SNX. That's it. We'll see whether that experiment is worth it. But there are no plans to integrate radar into three and why. Just as humans drive well and in fact, an excellent human driver can drive with amazing safety simply with their eyes. The car will far exceed the average human safety just with vision far, far, far. Because I mean, the car is looking in all directions at once. We don't have eyes in the back of my head. And the computer never gets tired and never gets distracted. Get drunk, hopefully. And so radar is, you know, it's not really matters is how much does it affect the probability of an accident. In order for the radar to be effective, you have to be able to do radar only breaking. You have to do actions that are radar only. Otherwise, you get this. This evacuation problem between vision and radar. That's why we actually turned off the radar in cars. It started to be that we had to. All three and why used to have radar, but we turned it off. The radar actually generated more noise than signal. The Tesla design radar is a high resolution radar that has some potential to be useful. But the jury is still very much out on whether that is in fact the case.

我们已经安装了雷达。在Model SNX中，我们将雷达作为特斯拉设计的雷达实验。就是这样。我们将会看到这个实验是否值得。但是目前没有计划将雷达整合到Model 3和Model Y车型中。就像人类驾驶得很好一样，事实上，一个出色的人类驾驶者仅凭自己的视力就能安全驾驶。车辆仅凭远远的视野就能远远超过平均人类的安全水平。因为车辆可以同时观察到各个方向，而我们没有这样的能力。计算机永不疲劳，也不会分心。希望它不会喝醉。所以雷达，你知道，它并不重要的是它对事故发生概率的影响有多大。为了使雷达有效，你必须能够只使用雷达制动。你必须执行只有雷达才能完成的动作。否则，就会导致视觉和雷达之间的混乱。这就是为什么我们实际上关闭了车辆中的雷达。所有的Model 3和Model Y以前都有雷达，但我们关闭了它。特斯拉设计的雷达是一种高分辨率雷达，具有一定的潜力。但是目前还没有确定是否真的如此。

On the cost question, I guess from the vehicle side, like, you know, as Drew mentioned earlier, we're always trying to engineer our products to be cheaper to make and more efficient to make. That comes obviously on the engineering side as we come up with new innovations, but as well on the supply chain side. With our partners, we work with them to automate some of their lines or move their, you know, bottom next center high costs as well. On the logistics side, getting parts of the factory. It's not, it's not equal. It's not like a one thing that you have to have to attack cost everywhere. And we do it ruthlessly at all times. And we have a lot of operations efficiencies. All of the, all of the above. Yeah, I mean, I would say there's a whole long list of things which we are chasing. We internally call it the cost attack where we literally go in line by line and saying, how can we make it better? And it's a grind. A grind line. It's a game of things. It's like Game of Thrones, but pennies. Is I mean, the first approximation, if you've got a $40,000 car and roughly 10,000 items in that car. That means each thing on average cost for books. So in order to get the cost down, save by 10%, you have to get 40 cents out of each part on average. It is a game of pennies. We play it willingly. Yeah, we've done it many, many times. And even something as simple as like a sticker.

在成本问题上，我觉得从车辆方面来看，就像Drew之前提到的那样，我们一直在努力使我们的产品更便宜和更有效率。这显然体现在我们的工程方面，我们不断创新，但也体现在供应链方面。与我们的合作伙伴一起，我们与他们合作自动化他们的一些生产线，或降低他们的高成本。在物流方面，将工厂的零件送到目的地。这不是一个平衡的过程。我们不是说你必须在成本的每个方面都要做到。我们在任何时候都无情地做到这一点。我们有很多的运营效率。以上的所有都适用。是的，我想说有一整长串我们追求的事物。我们内部称之为成本攻击，我们逐行检查，问自己怎样才能做得更好。这是一个漫长的过程。是一个格斗。就像《权力的游戏》，但是是关于便士的。首先，如果你有一辆价值4万美元的汽车，其中大约有1万个零件。这意味着平均每个零件成本为4美元。为了将成本降低10％，你必须从每个零件上平均节省40美分。这是一场关于便士的游戏。我们愿意玩这场游戏。是的，我们做过很多次。即使是一个简单的贴纸。

Yeah, like there's too many stickers internally in the car that nobody ever sees. There's something as simple as a QR code. You might think, well, putting a QR code on part one, I just put them on there. It's like, well, are we actually going to use that QR code? Also pending. Yeah, exactly. And notably, sometimes the QR code doesn't go on properly or you can't read it properly. And then it stops the line. For more than 10, absolutely. So chipping away with it with it. I mean, it is trying to. It is. It just feel like digging a tunnel with a spoon at times. Very much escaping prison. Yeah. So, you know, on top of it, like we said, you know, we did some factory upgrades. So we expect volume to go up. That would also bring some savings from high production. But then on the flip side, we're going to be ramping a new product like Cybertrack, which we talked about. So, yeah, so those are the real puts and takes which we are working for. Yeah, but there's not like some accidentally, you know, some goal. Break of goal that we've got to go. Unfortunately. And it's. We're trying to be very rigorous about improving the quality and capability of the car because. Yeah, that's like any fool can reduce the cost of a car by making it worse. I just, you know, deleting functionality and capability and. That's best I'm cool. That's sort of the any fool that it's like if you want to lose weight and you said, well, I need to lose. 15 pounds, right away. Well, you could top your arm off. But then you're sitting with one arm. You're still fat. So. So, like, yeah, it worked out. Yeah, you actually have to eat less food and work out. That's the actual way. And doctors, folks. Yeah, so. You know, super fun because we're just delicious and. Personally, I'm not a huge, but I don't love working at. I know some people do. I wish I did, but I don't. Let's moving the mouse consists of working out in which case I love moving. All right, let's go to. Colin Langam from Wells Fargo. Can you unmute yourself? Sorry about that. You hear me now? Yeah, I'm good. Great. Thanks for your question. You said in a commentary that you're not going full tilt on the plan in Mexico until there's signs that the economy is strong. Can you continue out of 50% Kager without that plant? And where would that come from? And any color on what you mean, sir, to not go on full tilt could that plant get delayed indefinitely or talk about?

是的，就像车内有太多的贴纸，没有人会看到。就像一个简单的二维码一样。你可能会认为，把二维码放在第一部分上，我只是把它们放在那里。就像，我们真的会用到那个二维码吗？还有待定。是的，确切地说，有时二维码无法正确放置或无法正确读取。然后它会停止生产线。超过10次确实是这样。所以我们正在努力解决这个问题。就像用一个勺子挖隧道一样。非常像逃离监狱。是的。所以，正如我们所说，我们进行了一些工厂升级。所以我们预计产量会增加。这也将带来一些高产量的节省。但另一方面，我们将加快新产品Cybertrack的生产，正如我们之前所说的。所以，这些就是我们正在努力解决的问题。是的，但并不是有一个意外的、一个目标。遗憾的是。我们正努力改善汽车的质量和能力，因为。是的，任何傻瓜都可以通过使汽车变差来降低成本。我只是删除了一些功能和能力。那是愚蠢的。这就像是你想减肥，然后你说，我需要立刻减掉15磅。那么，你可以砍掉你的手臂。但然后你只剩下一只手臂。你还是胖。所以。所以，是的，这行得通。你实际上必须减少食物摄入量并进行锻炼。这是真正的方法。医生们也是这样说的。是的，所以。你知道，超级有趣，因为我们只是可口的。就个人而言，我不是一个非常喜欢在工作中折腾的人。我知道有些人喜欢。我希望我也喜欢，但我不喜欢。除非我换一下鼠标，那样就相当于锻炼了。好的，让我们来看看来自富国银行的Colin Langam的问题。你能自己取消静音吗？对不起，关于这个问题。你现在听到我了吗？是的，我没问题。太好了。谢谢你的问题。你在评论中说，在墨西哥的计划没有明显经济强劲的迹象之前，你不会全力推进。那么在没有这个工厂的情况下，你能够继续以每年50%的复合增长率增长吗？那会从哪里来？你所说的不全力推进的具体意思是什么？那个工厂会被无限期地推迟吗？请谈谈这个问题。

No, we're definitely making the factory in Mexico. We feel very good about that. We put a lot of effort into looking at different locations and feel very good about that location. And we are going to go to back to there. It's going to be great. The question is really just one of timing and. You know, just going to be a broken record on the on the entrance front. It's just interest rates have to come down. Like like if if interest rates keep rising, you just fundamentally reduce portability. It is just the same as right, increasing the price of the car. So I just don't have visibility into it. If you can tell me what the interest rates are, I can tell you want to, you know. When we should we should both factory. We're going to bullet and. And I think we'll. Well, we'll start the initial phases of construction next year. But I am still somewhat. Scared by 2009. When. If General voters in Christ, they went bankrupt. So well, that's now 14 years ago. It's. That that is served into my mind with a branding iron. Because you know, Tesla was. Just hanging on by thread. During that entire time. And with the, I mean. We close off of financing around 2008 on at 6 p.m. December 24th, Christmas Eve. And if we had not close that financing around. We would have bounced payroll two days after Christmas. So we, we actually closed that around on the last hour of the last day that it was possible. Stressful to say the least. And then barely made it through 2009. So I'm like, I want to just, I don't want to be. Going. At top speed into uncertainty. A lot of wars going on in the world, obviously as well. So. And we have room here. Like in the Texas, you said, but we still have it in this building. It's not full with cyber truck and more. And you know, there's plenty of growth opportunities still to have inside the building where our team are. We also have 2000 acres here. There's also a lunch. We're actually only occupying a tiny corner of the land that we have. But, you know, we could technically do all the scaling. That's for you. Just here.

不，我们肯定要在墨西哥建厂。我们对此感到非常满意。我们付出了很多努力来考察不同的地点，并对选定的地点感到非常满意。我们将要回到那里，这将会很棒。问题只是时间的问题而已。我们会一再强调这个问题，这就是进入国际市场的问题。利率必须下降。就像汽车价格上涨一样，利率上升就会从本质上降低可承担性。我对此问题没有明确了解。如果你能告诉我利率是多少，我就可以告诉你什么时候建厂。我们将会推进工厂建设的初始阶段。但是我还有点担心2009年。那时，如果通用汽车破产，债券持有人就会贬值。所以，那已经是14年前的事了。但是这件事情已经牢记在我心中。因为你知道，特斯拉当时只是勉强维持下去。当时的融资情况非常紧张。2008年12月24日圣诞节前的下午6点，我们才最后一刻完成融资。如果当时没有融资成功，我们就得在圣诞节后的两天停止发放工资了。所以我们确实是在最后一刻完成了融资，可以说是非常紧张。接下来的2009年，我们勉强挺过来了。所以我不想以最快的速度冒进到不确定性中去。世界上也存在很多战争问题。并且我们这里还有空间。就像你说的，在德克萨斯州，我们还有这个建筑物里没有填满的空间。不仅有足够的增长机会，我们的团队中还有人。我们这里还有2000英亩的土地。那里也是我们的一个选择。但是，你知道的，我们在这块土地上只占据了一小角。但是，你知道的，在这里我们可以做所有的扩展。只要在这里。

So. That mean, personality is our biggest challenge and. It can that the greater was an area only has generously the greater or some area only has two million people. So people are moving here and they're willing to move here, but. There is. Similar housing crisis. They got a little somewhere. Yeah. Yeah. So, so, I don't know. I mean, I'm just curious. Like, I just, I'm not saying things will be bad. I'm just saying they might be. And I think. Like, like, Tesla is an incredibly capable ship, but it is. But if, you know, we need to make sure like. As, as. Economic conditions of stormy. You know, even if the best ship is still going to have. Top times the weak are ships will sink. We're not going to sink, but. You know, even a great ship in a storm. It has has challenges. Now, that's still will apply to everyone. Not just us. And not just not just the auto industry. But it's not just the. It's just the. It's just the. I think. I think it's a. I think it's a. You know, apart from necessary. Sort of staples like. Food and stuff, but. Yeah.

那么，这意味着个性是我们最大的挑战。在某些地区，只有非常大的地方才有慷慨的人口，而在一些地区只有两百万人口。所以人们来到这里，他们愿意搬来这里，但是却面临着相似的住房危机。他们只能找到很少的房屋。是的。是的。所以，我不知道。我的意思只是好奇。我并不是说情况会变糟。我只是说可能会。我认为，特斯拉是一艘非常有能力的船，但是。但是，你知道的，我们需要确保。如同经济状况风雨飘摇。即使是最好的船，也会有困难的时候。我们不会沉没，但是。你知道，即使是在暴风雨中的一艘伟大的船，也会面临挑战。这个道理适用于每个人，不仅仅是我们。不仅仅是汽车行业。但它不仅仅是。它只是。我认为。我认为这是一个。我认为这是一个。除了像食物之类的必需品之外，。是的。

So I just, I don't know. If. If interest rates start coming down, we will accelerate. And then we will go to the. And then we will go to the. Any, any, any guesses on this? I, you know, I'd love to be less wrong. And I apologize if I'm, if I perhaps more paranoid than I should be. Because I might, that might also be the case because I am. I've PTSD from 2009. Big time. And then 2017 through. 19 or not. So.

所以，我只是，我不知道。如果。如果利率开始下降，我们将加速发展。然后我们会去。然后我们会去。你对此有什么猜测吗？我知道，我希望自己能更少地犯错。如果我比我应该的更多一些过于多疑，我向你们道歉。因为这也可能是个原因，因为我。我有2009年的创伤后应激障碍。非常强烈的创伤。然后是2017年到。19年，或者不是。所以。

The auto industry is also somewhat cyclic. It's because. People can hesitate by a new car. And if there's uncertainty in the economy. So, so it's. Part companies do very well in good economic times and they. But don't do as well in. In tough economic times. So it's just. We are, whereas if somebody selling bread, then I think, you know, that people swing at bread. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You need bread. We free the full time, but. You are, you don't have to have bread. Especially there was going on. And then that impacts your sentiment. Yeah. You know, playing your car tends to not be fun in mind. All right.

汽车行业也有一定的周期性。这是因为人们可能对购买新车有所犹豫。如果经济不确定，情况就更加复杂了。所以，汽车公司在经济好的时候表现很好，但在经济困难时期表现就不那么好了。这就是为什么有时候我们需要面包，而不需要车子。你知道的，人们一直需要面包，但不一定需要车子，特别是在目前的情况下。这会影响你的情绪。你知道的，把车子开起来并不是一件有趣的事情。好了，

Unfortunately, that's all the time we have today. Thank you very much for all of your good questions and we'll see you again in three months. Thank you very much.

很遗憾，今天我们只能到这里了。非常感谢你们提出了这么多好问题，我们将在三个月后再见。非常感谢你们。