Tesla Q3 Earnings Report Coverage & Analysis (Q3-23)
发布时间 2023-10-19 04:56:02 来源
摘要
Join Rob Maurer for live coverage of the release of Tesla's Q2 2023 earnings report and shareholder letter ➤ Continue following ...
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Hey everybody Rob Maurer here, happy earnings day today. Of course we're going to be going through Tesla's shareholder letter and financials and then later on we'll have the earnings call. The link for that will be down in the description if you want to follow along with that. And of course we're doing this live. So if you are joining later, you can check the timestamps to jump ahead to when the actual actual earnings come out. That should be in around 10 minutes from now. So we're just going to kind of hang out until then. We do have a little bit of news to go through from today, not a whole lot, pretty quiet so far that we'll go through and then we'll take a quick look at just recapping the expectations that we talked about yesterday as we kind of wait and refresh waiting for that shareholder letter. But good to see everyone here looking forward to today and just kind of getting an update on Tesla's business, always fun.
大家好，我是Rob Maurer。今天是盈利日，非常开心。当然我们会看一下特斯拉的股东信和财务报表，然后晚些时候我们会进行盈利电话会议。如果你想跟上，请查看描述中的链接。当然，我们正在直播。所以如果你稍后加入，你可以查看时间戳，直达实际的盈利结果公布时间。从现在起大约还有10分钟。所以在那之前，我们就随便聊聊吧。我们有一些今天的新闻要看一下，虽然不是很多，到目前为止相当安静。然后我们会快速回顾一下我们昨天谈论的期望，等着刷新，等待股东信的发布。很高兴看到大家都在这里，期待今天，期待对特斯拉业务的更新，总是很有趣。
So right now obviously not quite as fun of a day for the stock down about four and three quarters percent at 242.68 as we're streaming here. Nasdaq down about 1.6% today. So not a great day for the Nasdaq. Not a great day for other EV companies in the US either. Rivian and Lucid both down pretty significantly more than Tesla on the day today. So again, not great market and we'll see. We need an earnings hopefully with a little bit of a drop here makes things a little bit easier for Tesla after hours. That doesn't sometimes seem to be the case, but we'll see. Turn my phone off here.
目前，股票的走势不太好，下跌了大约4.75%，报242.68美元，我们正在这里实时转播。纳斯达克今天下跌了约1.6%。所以纳斯达克今天不太好。美国的其他电动汽车公司也没过上好日子。Rivian和Lucid今天的跌幅比特斯拉要大得多。所以，市场并不好，我们会看到的。希望通过季度财报能稍微缓解一下特斯拉的压力。有时候情况并非总是如此，但我们会看到的。我在这里把手机关了。
All right. So just quick news before we get into the financials, like I mentioned, just kind of previewing what we talked about yesterday. Report today from Reuters that two Chinese suppliers for Tesla are going to be investing nearly a billion dollars in Nui Billion according to the governor who was recently visiting Shanghai. I believe he did a brief stop over at Gigas Shanghai. So kind of an update coming out of that looks like this is going to be close to a billion from these two suppliers, one of which is HSI technology, which is kind of interesting because they do primarily LiDAR stuff, so they've got a few products here, but it seems like overall their primary product is LiDAR with just a couple of other things. You can see they kind of have LiDAR branding on some of these hero images that we'll cycle through. But I wouldn't assume that Tesla uses them for LiDAR other than the fact that it does seem to be their primary product. And again, this is one of the companies that is being named. However, it doesn't already sound like this is a Tesla supplier currently. So my hunch would be that it's for something else because obviously Tesla not doing a whole lot with LiDAR. Obviously, sometimes we see it on test vehicles where Tesla's maybe calibrating other sensors and things like that, but obviously not in any production vehicles. SpaceX uses it, but they wouldn't necessarily be locating near Gigamexico for that obviously. So kind of interesting to see that, but no surprise to see Chinese suppliers of Tesla investing near Gigamexico, we've had reports of that previously. And there's no indication here really on timing, at least that I've seen, which would be obviously the big question. So not a whole lot of new information there, but still, I think, good to hear that suppliers are going to be investing in that area.
好的。在我们进入财务方面之前，让我们来谈谈快讯。正如我前面提到的，昨天有报道称，两家为特斯拉供应的中国供应商将在Nui Billion投资近10亿美元，来自最近访问上海的州长的消息。我相信他在吉格上海停留过。所以这是一个更新，看起来这两家供应商将投资近10亿美元，其中一家是HSI technology，这很有趣，因为他们主要从事LiDAR技术，所以他们有一些产品，但似乎主要产品还是LiDAR。你可以看到他们在一些英雄图片上有LiDAR品牌。但我并不认为特斯拉使用他们的LiDAR，除非LiDAR是他们的主要产品。再说一遍，这是其中被提及的一家公司。然而，目前并没有证据表明他们是特斯拉的供应商。所以我猜这可能是为了其他事情，因为显然特斯拉对LiDAR的使用并不多。显然，有时我们在测试车辆上看到它，这可能是因为特斯拉在校准其他传感器等等的原因，但显然没有在任何量产车辆上使用。SpaceX使用了它，但他们不一定会选择在吉格墨西哥附近设厂。所以这个消息让人感到有趣，但也不意外见到特斯拉供应商在吉格墨西哥附近投资，我们之前已经有报道了。目前还没有关于时间的明确指示，至少我还没有看到，这显然是个重要问题。所以在这方面并没有太多新的信息，但我认为，供应商将在该地区投资是一个好消息。
And then just kind of a quick one today, local news in near Austin is reporting that Tesla's going to be funding what they're calling an ecological uplift program or pilot project. So it's going to be 120 acres near Gigatexis. You can kind of see, I know the overlay is covering things a little bit here, but you can kind of see some of the plans Gigafactory over here and some of the plans that Tesla has to do along the Colorado River there. And again, they say this is a pilot project. So Elon's talked about this kind of becoming an ecological paradise in the past. So hopefully this goes well and they continue to kind of develop that area in this way. So it should be fun to follow that progress as that happens.
然后今天简单说一下，奥斯汀附近的本地新闻报道称，特斯拉将资助他们所称的生态提升计划或试点项目。所以它将在Gigatexis附近的120英亩地上进行。你可以看到，我知道覆盖的部分有点多，但你可以看到特斯拉在科罗拉多河附近的一些计划和Gigafactory的一些计划。而且他们说这是一个试点项目。埃隆在过去曾谈到将其打造成生态天堂。因此希望这一切顺利进行，并且他们继续以这种方式开发该地区。所以跟随这一进展应该会很有趣。
And then quick one from GM. We talked yesterday about them, maybe that was yesterday, maybe two days ago about GM kind of delaying investments in their Orion assembly facility for EVs. They now have also canceled their investor day, which was coming up in about a month. They say that this is related to the UAW negotiations, obviously, allowing executives to focus on that instead, but they're postponing it for a full year. So interesting to see that in the wake of obviously the UAW strikes and those types of things.
然后是GM的一个重要消息。我们昨天（或者可能是前天）谈论过他们推迟在奥莱昂组装厂进行电动车投资的事情。现在他们还取消了原定在一个月后举行的投资者日活动。他们表示这与UAW谈判有关，显然是为了让高管们能够专注于谈判。但是他们将这个活动推迟了一整年。在显然是由UAW罢工引起的背景下，这一情况非常有趣。
All right, that puts us just about at market close here in a few seconds. Kind of see what the stock's been doing. Not a whole lot of new movement. One penny since we started. That's cool. Let's flip over to Excel and just take a quick look at what we're going to be looking at when we do eventually get the shareholder letter. As usual, we'll just kind of walk through Tesla's takeaways and we'll hop over to Excel and put them in sort of summary context and compare how those results come in versus expectations and what we can kind of learn from this as we look ahead, obviously, to future quarters.
好的，再过几秒钟，我们就要接近市场收盘了。可以看到股票的变动情况。变动不大，只涨了一分钱。很好。让我们切换到Excel，快速查看我们在最终获得股东信函时要关注的内容。和往常一样，我们会逐一分析特斯拉的要点，然后切换到Excel，将它们归纳到一个概要的背景中，比较这些结果与预期的差异，以及我们可以从中学到的东西，当然也是展望未来季度的。
All right, so here we've got the Excel sheet adapted a little bit. One quick note. I did actually have things to work up a comment here as we're pointing this out. I did actually have the wrong number in here for automotive sales for analysts consensus yesterday. All the other numbers were correct, including the sum because it's not actually a sum. It's just key in there, but for this one. But this was about $1 billion too high. It was just from last quarter. So I had forgotten to update that. So my apologies on that. I think it was around $21 billion was what was in there yesterday. The actual reality is just over $20 billion for automotive sales. So hopefully, you know, that didn't throw off too much of the conversation yesterday, but just wanted to quickly update on that. And then let me just refresh here to make sure Tesla's not really on the ball with this release as the market did just close. Looks like we don't have anything yet. So we'll keep an eye on that. Usually it's a few minutes after close. So it gives us a chance to kind of look at things here if you didn't catch the episode yesterday. So when we do get the actual results, we'll fill those in here in this Q3 column. I've got my forecast over here as well as how my forecast will compare versus the actual. I might say that Tesla missed expectations at times. We've talked about that before. Stock prices are based on expectations. So it doesn't mean that, you know, if Tesla misses a number, quote unquote, it doesn't mean that the company is failing or that it's horrible or something like that. It's just a way to communicate versus expectations. Same thing with analyst consensus. So that's over here. Let's just change the color back on that since that's correct now. So we'll just put these numbers in and kind of compare. And then obviously, again, the most important thing is just how this, you know, the information that we get here in the context that this gives us for Tesla's business going forward.
好的，所以我们这里有一张稍微修改过的Excel表格。有一个小注释。我确实要为我们指出这点而忙碌，我刚才在汽车销售方面的分析师共识中的数字确实是错误的。其他数字都是正确的，包括总额，因为它实际上不是一个总额，只是键入在这里的，但是这个数字就是错误的。但这个数字相对于上个季度来说太高了10亿美元。我忘记更新了。对此我表示歉意。我想昨天这个数字大约是210亿美元。实际数字只是略高于200亿美元的汽车销售额。所以希望这不会对昨天的讨论产生太大影响，但我只是想快速更新一下。然后让我刷新一下，确保特斯拉在这个发布上没有做得特别好，因为市场刚刚收盘。看起来我们还没有任何结果。所以我们会继续关注。通常在收盘后几分钟会有消息。这给了我们一个机会来观察一些东西，如果你昨天没能看到这一集的话。所以当我们得到实际结果时，我们会在这个Q3列中填写这些数据。我在这里有我的预测，以及我的预测与实际情况相比如何。我可能会说特斯拉有时未达到预期。我们之前谈过这个。股票价格是基于期望的。这并不意味着，你知道，如果特斯拉错过了一个数字，它并不意味着这家公司失败了或者是糟糕的什么的。这只是与预期相比的一种沟通方式。分析师共识也是一样。所以这是在这里。让我们把颜色改回来，因为现在它是正确的。所以我们将把这些数字放进去进行比较。显然，最重要的是通过这里得到的信息，以及对特斯拉未来业务的背景进行分析。
All right, let me just refresh a couple of times. Nothing yet. So as we talked about yesterday, you know, I'm forecasting for just over $24 billion in revenue analysts just under that. I do have about $200 million in here from FSD deferred revenue recognition, which is boosting my bottom line forecast by about five cents per share. So otherwise, I would be pretty in line with analyst consensus, even a little bit below. Seems to be what would be driving that would be obviously a little bit lower automotive revenue here, offset by services and others. And then I do have a little bit higher operating expenses as we can see down here, about $150 million. So as we did see R&D and SG&A spike a little bit last quarter, as I think that's related to Cybertruck. So I kind of expect that to continue. We may see some of that shift over to cost a good sold once Cybertruck is actually being delivered.
好的，让我刷新几次看看。还没有任何结果。所以正如我们昨天讨论的，我预测收入将超过240亿美元，分析师的预测略低于此数。我在这里有大约2亿美元的FSD延迟收入确认，这将使我的底线预测每股增加大约5美分。否则，我的预测与分析师的共识基本一致，甚至稍微低一点。这似乎是由于汽车收入稍微降低，然后通过服务和其他领域能够抵消。然后，我们可以看到这里的运营费用稍微高一点，约1.5亿美元。正如我们上个季度看到的，研发和销售总务费用有所增加，我认为与Cybertruck有关。所以我认为这种情况可能会持续下去。一旦Cybertruck真正交付，我们可能会看到一部分费用转移到销售成本上。
Well, earnings are out. All right, I'll shut up and let's just hop over here. Let's see. I'll see you guys are messing with me, which happens. Probably. All right, I'm just going to keep refreshing because, I mean, not too much movement. And if you guys are messing with me again, I'm going to be really, really annoying. All right, I don't see anything. If someone that I actually know can comment here and just let me know what's going on, not yet. Okay. I'm going to need like a spotter here that I can trust. Okay. Well, I've been refreshing in the browser. I know you guys can't see that, but we'll just continue what we were talking about here. Apologies. Anyway, my operating income is a little bit higher as I do have higher gross profitability. So even though my automotive revenue is lower, I'm expecting an improvement in cost a good sold where analysts don't seem to be expecting that. So that's where I'm getting to this higher gross profit number, you know, $250 million higher. Some of that comes back as, you know, the operating expenses that I have are a little bit higher. And then that's netting me out a little bit higher, but obviously the primary difference there being driven by FSD deferred revenue and my services and other line a little bit higher. So a couple of those factors that are different, but I would say largely overall, you know, pretty similar expectations here. As we talked about yesterday, as we usually talk about auto gross margin X credits is going to be one of the big things that I look at. I've got 18.9% here actually improving quarter over quarter. But if we take out the FSD deferred revenue, then this drops down to 18.1. So just kind of holds a quarter over quarter.
好的，财报已经公布了。好吧，我闭嘴，我们先来看看这边。让我看看，我看看你们在捉弄我，这种事经常发生。也许。好的，我会一直刷新，因为，我是说，没有太大的波动。如果你们再次捉弄我，我会非常非常烦。好的，我什么都没看到。如果我认识的人可以在这里评论并告诉我发生了什么，还没到。好的。我需要一个我可以信任的观察者。好的，我一直在浏览器中刷新。我知道你们看不到，但我们会继续我们在这里谈论的事情。抱歉。无论如何，我的营业收入稍微高一些，因为我有更高的毛利率。所以尽管我的汽车收入较低，但我预计成本会有所改善，而分析师似乎并没有期望到这一点。所以这就是为什么我得到了这个更高的毛利数字，比如高了2.5亿美元。其中一部分会作为运营费用回来，这使得我的净利益稍微高一些，但主要的区别是由FSD递延收入和我的服务以及其他方面的一些增加所驱动的。所以有几个不同的因素，但我可以说总体而言，在这里的预期基本相似。正如我们昨天所讨论的，正如我们通常讨论的那样，去掉积分后的汽车毛利率将是我关注的重要事项之一。事实上，我这里有18.9%，季度环比有所改善。但如果我们去掉FSD递延收入，这个数字会下降到18.1%。所以基本上和上个季度持平。
All right. Well, looks like it's out. We see a big drop in the stock here. Stocks down to 237. Sometimes this happens though, and it's just kind of like a fake move. I'm going to flip back to Safari though. One second. You guys can watch me refresh. Yeah, I'm not seeing anything yet. But as we can see, the stock just dropped really quickly here, which usually indicates that it's out. But now it's recovered, you know, a few percent. So we dropped down to 237. 236. Now it's back to almost 240. Maybe you guys tricked the market too. Well, I don't know. Maybe something leaked or something. I don't know. Perplexing. There we go. So it probably was out. Maybe just took a second to sync here. All right. We got our update. So let's just take a look. Operating margin 7.6%. So that's definitely below what I had in there. Take a look at some of the other numbers. I don't want to jump too far ahead. Let's just take a quick look at some of the numbers in here, and we'll see. And then we'll kind of read through because obviously Tesla's going to give us a lot of context that is helpful. So right away, I'm seeing my revenue figures were higher than what we see on all three lines here. I'm covering that a bit. But I'm a little bit high on automotive revenue, a little bit high on energy storage, a little bit high on services and others. Gross profit, also high. So let's see what EPS net out out. So 66 cents and 53 cents. I'm guessing we're not seeing any deferred revenue in here. Growth and regulatory credit sales. So let's see. Yeah. So probably none of that included. But definitely looks like a little bit lower than expected by analysts and obviously by myself as well. That being said, we'll look through this and just kind of see. Take a quick look. Looks like the stock again, kind of recovering a bit. So actually not too bad of a reaction so far despite this coming in below the expectations from analysts. All right. So let's read through this because obviously that's going to be more important than just a quick quick look at the financials. All right.
好的，看起来事情已经公开了。我们看到股票出现了大幅下跌。股价下降到了237美元。有时候这种情况会发生，这只是一种虚假的波动。不过我打算切换回Safari。稍等一下。你们可以看我刷新页面。是的，暂时还没有看到什么新消息。不过正如我们看到的，股票在这里迅速下跌，通常表明这条消息是真实的。不过现在它已经恢复了几个百分点。所以我们从237下跌到了236，现在又回到了接近240。也许你们也搞错了市场。我不知道。也许是有什么消息泄露了。令人困惑。好了，我们有了最新的信息更新。让我们来看一看。营业利润率为7.6%。这肯定低于我预期的数字。我们先来看一下其他数据。我不想提前太过急进。让我们快速浏览一下这些数字，然后我们将看看其他有帮助的信息。所以我马上发现我的营收数字比我们在这三条线上看到的要高。我稍微进行了修正。但是我对汽车营收、能源储存和服务以及其他方面的预估都稍高了一点。毛利润也高一些。那么看看每股收益，这是净额，是66美分和53美分。我猜在这里可能没有包括任何未实现的收益。增长和监管信用销售。所以让我们来看看。是的，可能都没有包括在内。但是肯定看起来稍低于分析师的预期，当然也比我自己的预期低。话虽如此，我们将仔细阅读这些内容，看看情况如何。快速看了一眼，股票似乎又有所恢复。所以尽管这个结果低于分析师的预期，市场反应其实还不错。那么，我们来读一读这份报告，因为毕竟这比仅仅看一眼财报更重要。
So on the first page saying our main objectives remained unchanged in Q3 2023 reducing cost per vehicle, free cash flow generation while maximizing delivery volumes and continued investment and AI and other growth projects.
在第一页中表示我们在2023年第三季度的主要目标保持不变，即降低每辆车的成本、实现自由现金流的产生，同时最大化交付量，并继续投资于人工智能和其他增长项目。
Cost of goods sold per vehicle decreased to about $37,500 in Q3. While production costs at our new factories remained higher than our established factories, we have implemented necessary upgrades in Q3 to enable further unit cost reductions. We continue to believe that an industry leader needs to be a cost leader. In a high interest rate environment, we believe focusing on investments in R&D and capital expenditures for future growth while maintaining positive free cash flow as the right approach.
第三季度每辆车的销售成本降至约37500美元。虽然我们新工厂的生产成本仍高于既有工厂，但我们已在第三季度实施了必要的升级，以实现进一步的单位成本降低。我们继续相信，行业领导者必须成为成本领导者。在高利率环境下，我们认为专注于研发和资本支出以实现未来增长，并保持正面自由现金流是正确的方法。
Year to date, our free cash flow reached $2.3 billion. While our cash and investment positions continues to improve. We have more than doubled the size of our AI training compute to accommodate for our growing data set, as well as our optimist robot project. Our humanoid robot is currently being trained for simple tasks through AI rather than hard coded software and its hardware is being further upgraded.
截至目前，我们的自由现金流达到了23亿美元。同时，我们的现金和投资状况也在不断改善。我们已经将我们的AI训练计算规模扩大了一倍以上，以适应不断增长的数据集以及我们乐观的机器人项目。我们正在通过人工智能训练我们的人形机器人执行简单任务，而不是通过硬编码软件，同时我们还在进一步升级其硬件设备。
Lastly, we combine a gross profit generation of over half a billion dollars. Lastly, with a combined gross profit generation of over half a billion dollars in Q3, our energy generation and storage business and services and other business have become meaningful contributors to our profitability. That would be roughly an eighth of what Tesla's profit number here is. We have $4.2 billion in total gross profit, energy and service and others accounting for a little bit less than an eighth of that, a little bit more than 10%.
最后，我们将超过50亿美元的毛利润进行了整合。最后，我们的能源发电和储存业务、服务和其他业务在第三季度的毛利润总额超过50亿美元，成为我们利润的有意义的贡献者。这大约是特斯拉利润数字的八分之一。我们总共有42亿美元的毛利润，其中能源、服务和其他业务占据了不到八分之一，略高于10%。
We just took a quick look at the financials. Obviously, these are going to come in below what we had talked about in the forecast. Free cash flow, actually a little bit lower than what I would have guessed, but we can see capital expenditure stepping up a little bit as likely related to what Tesla is talking about here with doubling the size of AI training compute and things like that.
我们刚刚简要地查看了财务情况。显然，这些财务数据将低于我们在预测中讨论的结果。实际上，自由现金流比我猜测的要低一些，但我们可以看到资本支出稍微增加了一些，可能与特斯拉在这里提到的人工智能训练计算机的规模扩大和其他相关事项有关。
Financial summary, revenue grew 9% year over year. And by the following things, increase in vehicle deliveries, increase in growth of the other part of the businesses, growth in other parts of the business, reduced average selling price year over year, excluding foreign exchange impact and a negative foreign exchange impact of $400 million.
财务摘要，收入同比增长9%。具体而言，车辆交付量增加，其他业务部分增长，业务其他部分增长，年均销售价格同比下降，不考虑外汇影响并且有400百万美元的负面外汇影响。
So last quarter, that was I believe $600 million here and again, this is a quarter or sorry, a year over year number. So a relatively similar impact year over year to what we would have seen in the second quarter.
所以，上个季度，我相信这个数字是6亿美元，这是一个同比数据，抱歉，是一年同比数据。所以，与我们在第二季度看到的相比，同比影响相对较为相似。
In 2020, operating income decreased year over year to 1.8 billion, resulting in a 7.6% operating margin. Year over year, operating income was primarily impacted by the following items, reduced ASP, increase in operating expenses driven by Cybertruck, AI and other R&D projects, cost of production ramp and idle cost related to factory upgrades, negative foreign exchange impact, offset a bit by growth in vehicle deliveries, lower cost per vehicle and IRA credit benefit, growth, growth profit growth and energy generation and storage, as well as services and other, growth in regulatory credit sales. So that's again, a year over year number there. I haven't seen that red credit number yet. Let's see what that was. I'll have to look for that down on the bottom.
2020年，营业收入同比下降至18亿美元，导致营业利润率为7.6%。同比而言，营业收入主要受以下因素影响：平均销售价格的下降，由Cybertruck、人工智能和其他研发项目推动的营业费用增加，与工厂升级相关的生产成本和闲置成本，负面外汇影响，部分抵消了车辆交付增长、单位车辆成本降低以及IRA信贷利益的增长、增长利润增长和能源发电和储存以及服务和其他领域的销售规模扩大。所以这又是一个同比数据。我还没有看到那个红字信贷数字。看看那是什么。我要在底部找一下。
And then cash. So nice to see cash increasing despite, you know, obviously a drop here in some of the margin numbers, still adding cash to the balance sheet, driving that up to $26.1 billion in Q3 of cash and cash equivalents. Driven by financing activities of $2.3 billion, so we'll have to take a look at what that was. I'm not sure maybe Tesla taking on some debt, which would be a little bit weird, probably not, but we'll see what that was. Maybe I'll talk about that on the call production.
然后就是现金。虽然在一些利润率数字上出现了下滑，但现金持续增加，这真是太好了！现金和等价物账面余额在第三季度达到了261亿美元。这主要是由23亿美元的融资活动推动的，我们需要查看一下具体是什么。我不确定，也许是特斯拉接受了一些债务，这可能有点奇怪，但我们将看看具体情况。也许我在通话中会谈论这个问题。
We knew deliveries. We knew subject release accounting. So we'll keep that number in mind when we calculate ASPs a little bit later. Vehicle supplies, we'd already calculated that out based on the delivery and production report. So that holds a study at 16 days.
我们知道交付的数量。我们知道主题发布的会计。因此，在稍后计算平均销售价格时，我们将记住这个数字。车辆供应品，我们已经根据交付和生产报告计算出来。因此，这个数字保持在16天。
Solar dropped significantly, 49 megawatts installed. So I don't know, obviously not a good trend here for solar. Tesla talked about the impact of high interest rates on this last quarter. I would have hoped that this would have bounced back a bit, which was what I was forecasting, not anything crazy, but I had 75 megawatts in there. So we'll be interested to hear their thoughts on that on the call, but obviously that business seems to be declining relatively quickly here.
太阳能发电量大幅下降，仅安装了49兆瓦。所以我不知道，太阳能市场显然不是一个好的趋势。特斯拉上季度谈到了高利率对此的影响。我本以为这种情况会有所好转，我之前预测了75兆瓦的安装量。所以我们很想听听关于这一问题的意见，但显然这个业务在这里正相对快速地下滑。
And then storage, a little bit of an opposite situation there, nice growth here, up 90% year over year, almost 4 gigawatts, 4 gigawatt hours. So a little bit below what I had forecast, but this is a new all time high for storage deployed for Tesla. We can see locations, fleet, superchargers, et cetera, stuff there.
然后是储能方面，稍微有些相反的情况，这里的增长不错，同比增长90%，接近4吉瓦特，4吉瓦特小时。所以相比我之前的预测稍微低一些，但这是特斯拉储能部署的新的历史最高点。我们可以看到各个地点、车队、超级充电站等相关设施。
And then let's just take a quick look at this capacity thing. I guess let's read what they have to say for us, but we'll come back to this chart and compare that against last quarter, see if there's any new changes there. I think this Cybertruck 125 is probably new, but we'll take a look at that.
然后让我们快速看看这个能力问题。我猜我们可以先看看他们对我们说了些什么，然后再回过头来与上个季度相比较一下这个图表，看是否有任何新的变化。我认为这个Cybertruck 125可能是新的，但我们会去详细了解一下。
So Tesla says during the quarter, we brought down several production lines for upgrades at various factories, which led to us a cultural decline in production volumes. We made for the progress, smoothing out the delivery rate across the quarter with September accounting for about 40% of Q3 deliveries this year compared to September accounting for about 65% of deliveries in a Q3 last year.
特斯拉表示，在这个季度，我们关闭了几条位于不同工厂的生产线进行升级，这导致我们的产量出现了暂时的下降。为了保持进展，我们在整个季度内平衡了交付速度，今年第三季度的9月份交付量约占全年的40％，而去年第三季度的9月份交付量约占全年的65％。
So unwinding the wave that continues and now is in a pretty good spot, not quite a third, but pretty close. At Gigatexas, we began pilot production of the Cybertruck, which remains on track for initial deliveries this year. No date that I've seen yet. We'll keep it out for that. We are expecting the Model Y production rate in Texas to grow very gradually from its current level as we ramp additional supply chain needs in a cost-efficient manner. Production of our high density 4680 cell is progressing as planned, and we continue building capacity for cathode production and lithium refining in the US.
目前，我们正在稳定推进进展并且处于相当不错的位置，虽然还没有达到三分之一，但接近了。在德克萨斯州的Gigatexas工厂，我们已经开始试生产Cybertruck，并计划在今年初进行首批交付，具体日期还没有确定。我们会继续关注这方面的消息。我们预计德克萨斯州的Model Y产量将以非常缓慢的速度逐渐增长，同时以成本效益为导向，逐步进行供应链扩展的规划。我们的高密度4680电池的生产进展顺利，同时我们还在美国不断增加阴极生产和锂提炼的产能。
So a little bit of a disappointing update, I think they're on the Model Y. Growing production rate very gradually, very gradually, and just gradually from current levels. We don't know exactly what current levels would mean. I would assume that they would be talking about their weekly run rate. Obviously, Q3 had the downtime, so the quarterly number for Texas was quite low, but hopefully they're speaking to a more of a weekly rate there, which would make a lot more sense.
这个更新有点让人失望，我觉得他们正在生产Model Y。生产速度增长非常缓慢，非常缓慢，仅从当前水平逐渐增加。我们不确定当前水平究竟是什么意思。我会认为他们指的是每周生产数量。显然，第三季度有停工时间，所以德克萨斯的季度数字相当低，但希望他们所说的是每周的产量，这会更合理。
All right, Shanghai, other than scheduled downtime in Q3, our Shanghai factory has been successfully running near full capacity for several quarters, and we do not expect a meaningful increase in weekly production run rate. So similarly again there, just the Model Y in Texas, Shanghai, no significant increases in production planned. Giga Shanghai remains our main export hub.
好的，上海，除了第三季度计划的停机时间外，我们的上海工厂在过去几个季度一直以接近满负荷的状态成功运行，我们不预计每周生产量会有明显增加。所以类似的情况也会在德州的Model Y和上海的工厂出现，没有计划对生产量进行重大增加。上海超级工厂仍然是我们的主要出口枢纽。
And then Europe, Model Y remained the best selling vehicle of any kind in Europe, and of any kind in Europe year to date, similar to Texas for their production ramp of Model Y will be gradual. So not really good updates there, setting aside maybe the cyber truck for a second, but Texas. It's ramping very gradually. Shanghai, not really ramping anymore. Berlin, ramping very gradually.
然后在欧洲，Model Y仍然是欧洲任何类型的车辆中的畅销车型，也是截至目前为止欧洲任何类型的车辆中的畅销车型，类似于德克萨斯州对于他们的Model Y生产增长将逐渐进行。所以在那方面的更新并不是很好，暂且回避可能的电动卡车，但德克萨斯州的情况不错。它的生产增长非常缓慢。上海不再大规模扩张。柏林也在缓慢扩张。
I think as we kind of talked about yesterday, I think Tesla's probably making some decisions to not aggressively pursue production, not as aggressively pursue production as what we have seen from them in the past, based on the current auto market and the demand versus supply curve. So it's a good reminder of all the stuff that we talked about, the higher the margins are, the more room you have to come down and continue to grow production. So just kind of brings us back to all of those types of conversations.
我认为，如我们昨天讨论的那样，特斯拉可能正在做出决策，不像过去那样积极追求生产，这是基于当前汽车市场和需求与供应曲线的状况。所以这是对我们讨论过的一切内容的一个很好的提醒，利润率越高，您就越有空间降低价格并继续增加生产。所以这只是把我们带回到那些对话中。
Should be a more fun update on the technology page. Our artificial intelligence software and hardware software that safely performs tasks in the real world is a key focus of our AI development efforts. We have commissioned one of the world's largest supercomputers to accelerate the pace of our AI development with compute capacity more than doubling compared to Q2. So we've seen, we've talked a number of times about that chart that Tesla posted, of the other compute capacity. And this is in line with their forecast for that, maybe even a little bit ahead of what they had said. Our large install base of vehicles continues to generate anonymized video and other data used to develop our FSD capability.
科技页面上应该有一个更有趣的更新。我们的人工智能软件和硬件软件在真实世界中安全执行任务是我们人工智能开发工作的重点。我们已经委托世界上最大的超级计算机之一，以加快我们人工智能开发的速度，计算能力相比第二季度增加了一倍以上。因此，我们已经看到了特斯拉发布的那张图表，关于其他计算能力的。这与他们的预测一致，甚至可能稍微超过他们的说法。我们庞大的车队继续产生用于开发全自动驾驶能力的匿名视频和其他数据。
All right. So here we can see cumulative miles. We obviously saw that kind of steeply take off in the second quarter. Looks like in the third quarter, that's continued to increase, but at a more, you know, I don't know if that's sort of the same kind of look at June to March there. It looks like roughly about the same increase in miles. So that means that there's probably not a huge addition of vehicles being added or a huge increase in number of miles that are being driven on FSD more of a, you know, consistent rate since the second quarter. It looks like maybe that increased a bit, but more consistent versus obviously we saw a dramatic increase in the second quarter as Tesla kind of expanded FSD.
好的。所以在这里我们可以看到累积英里数。显然，我们看到了第二季度的急剧增长。看起来在第三季度，它继续增加，但增长速度更平稳，不知道是不是和6月到3月之间的情况相似。大致看起来增加的英里数差不多。这意味着可能没有大量的车辆被添加，或者在FSD上行驶的英里数大幅增加，而更多是自第二季度以来持续的速度。看起来可能有所增加，但相对而言更加稳定，显然我们看到特斯拉在第二季度扩展了FSD。
All right. Vehicle and other software, all Tesla rentals through Hertz in the US and Canada can now allow Tesla app access. We've talked about that. Customers who already have a Tesla profile, we have their settings and preferences seamlessly applied if you talked about that. The enough service experience was also redesigned to allow customers to schedule service, access their loaner, etc. So we've talked about that stuff.
好的。车辆和其他软件，现在所有在美国和加拿大通过Hertz租赁特斯拉的用户都可以使用特斯拉应用程序。我们已经谈论过这个。对于已经有特斯拉个人资料的顾客，他们的设置和偏好会自动应用，我们也谈论过这个。服务体验也进行了重新设计，使顾客能够预约服务、使用借车服务等等。所以关于这些我们已经谈过了。
Custom goods sold. So nice to see that decreasing. But that once we get into the financials, this should be attributed, you know, a part of this can be attributed to 46 80s, improving and being less of a drag. Those have been adding to cost to get sold. So naturally that's going to come out.
定制商品销售。很高兴看到销售额正在下降。但是，一旦我们进入财务部门，这应该归因于一部分可以归因于46/80的改善，从而减少了负担。这些都增加了销售成本。因此，自然而然地，这些成本将会减少。
We've heard Tesla talk about some of the raw materials inputs starting to come down in cost. Obviously the impact of those during the height of, you know, expenses on those resources if you look at spot prices. Tesla wouldn't be necessarily fully exposed to those, so they're not going to be fully exposed to the downside too. So you might see a lot of that about how, you know, lithiums down, you know, 50% or whatever it was from peak, but Tesla wasn't going to be fully exposed to that 100% peak anyway. So just I'm going to keep in mind as we see stuff like that.
我们听说特斯拉谈到一些原材料的成本开始下降。显然，在这些资源费用高峰期间，如果看一下现货价格对这些的冲击，特斯拉不会完全面临这些风险，因此它也不会完全面临下降的风险。所以你可能会看到很多关于锂价格下跌50%之类的消息，但特斯拉也不会完全面临100%的价格高峰。所以这点我们要牢记，看到类似消息时要保持警惕。
But Tesla says despite macroeconomic headwinds, our plan factory shutdowns in Q3 and ongoing rampant new factories, average cost declined. We continue to work to reduce costs further for heavy vehicles. A high voltage powertrain architecture brings notable cost savings, which is why a cyber truck will adapt an 800 volt architecture. So we've heard about that before as well.
但特斯拉表示，尽管宏观经济形势不佳，我们在第三季度计划关闭工厂，并继续不断建设新工厂，但平均成本有所下降。我们还将继续努力降低重型车辆的成本。采用高压动力总成结构可以显著降低成本，这就是为什么赛博卡车将采用800伏特的结构。所以我们之前也听说过这个。
Right, energy storage. Energy storage deployments increased 90% over years, you about 4.0 gigawatt hours, our highest quarterly deployment ever. Continued growth in deployments was driven by the ongoing ramp of the mega factory in California. Toward full capacity of 40 gigawatt hours, what the phase two expansion production rate improved further sequentially in Q3.
对，储能。储能设备的部署量在过去几年里增加了90%，达到了大约4.0吉瓦时，成为我们有史以来最高的季度部署量。这一持续增长是由加利福尼亚州的超级工厂不断扩产推动的。朝着40吉瓦时的全产能目标，第二阶段扩建的生产速度在第三季度进一步顺序增长。
All right, solar, let's see what they have to say on this. So decline to 49 megawatts sustained high interest rates in the end of net metering in California have created downward pressure on solar demand. So likely something that we'll kind of continue to see, you know, Tesla not having any sort of comment there about getting the business back or anything like that, which by omission is definitely something worth noting.
好的，来看看他们对此有何说法。因此，在加州，净计量结束以及持续高利率使得太阳能需求受到下行压力，从而下降至49兆瓦。因此可能会出现一种趋势，你知道，特斯拉未对业务回升或其他方面发表任何评论，这是一种有意忽略的情况，绝对值得注意。
Services and other as our global fleet size grows, our services and other business continues to grow successfully with supercharging insurance and body shopping part sales, being the core drivers of profit growth year over year. Paper use supercharging remains a profitable business for the company. Even as we scale capital expenditures, our team is focused on materially expanding supercharging capacity and further improving capacity management in anticipation of other OEMs joining our network.
随着我们全球车队规模的扩大，我们的服务和其他业务也持续成功增长。其中，保险和车身零部件销售的超级充电服务是利润增长的核心驱动力。纸质超级充电仍然是公司的盈利业务。即使我们扩大了资本支出，我们的团队仍专注于大幅增加超级充电能力，并进一步改善能量管理，以预计其他汽车制造商加入我们的网络。
All right, outlook. We are planning to grow production as quickly as possible in alignment with the 50% compound annual growth target we began guiding to in early 2021. In some years, we may grow faster and some we may grow slower, depending on the number of factors for 2023. We expect to remain ahead of the long term 50% compound annual growth weight with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year.
好的，展望。根据我们在2021年初开始引导的50%年复合增长目标，我们计划尽快增加生产规模。根据2023年的各种因素，有些年份我们可能增长更快，有些年份则可能增长较慢。我们预计今年将拥有大约180万辆车，保持领先于长期的50%年复合增长目标。
All right, so we'll have to figure out exactly what the, you know, 50% number comes out to. I thought it was around 1.8 million. It'd be nice to know exactly the number though, because now as we get into the fourth quarter, that becomes a little bit more precise for Tesla saying they expect to remain ahead of it. That means they should, you know, be clearing that bar for the fourth quarter. So we'll take a look at that a little bit later on. But around 1.8 million, as we talked about the around that has been consistent with the language that they've used. That's not a change or anything. So we talked about in the delivery release that maybe that was something to keep an eye on. But again, that's consistent language for Tesla.
好的，所以我们需要确定准确的50%数字是多少。我以为大约是180万。不过最好能够确切知道那个数字，因为现在进入第四季度，对于特斯拉来说，这就变得更加精确了，他们希望保持领先。这意味着他们应该能够达到第四季度的标准。所以我们稍后来看看这个。但是，我们之前说的大约180万是与他们一直使用的措辞一致的。这并没有变化什么。所以我们在交付发布中提到的可能需要关注的事项，这也是特斯拉一贯的措辞。
Cash, ample liquidity, manage the business that we maintain a strong balance. So nothing new there. Profit while we continue to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing and operations over time. That's where we're related profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI, software and fleet profits. And cyber truck deliveries remain on track for later this year. In addition, we continue to make progress on our next generation platform.
现金充裕，流动性充足，我们管理着一个强大的平衡。所以在这方面没有什么新的变化。在我们继续实施降低制造和运营成本的创新措施的同时，实现利润。这就是我们将利润与加速人工智能、软件和车队利润相联系的地方。而且CyberTruck交付计划仍然按计划进行，预计将在今年晚些时候完成。此外，我们在下一代平台上取得了进展。
Right, there's probably some nice pictures there. I'm guessing something cyber truck related. But before we get into that, I don't want to forget to just quickly check how this compares to last quarter, this table here.
没错，那里可能有一些不错的图片。我猜测它与赛博卡车有关。但在我们深入讨论之前，我不想忘记快速检查一下这张表格，与上个季度相比的情况。
So for Q2, let's see what Tesla had. So SNX, that's 100,000 still, this is the Q3, so 100,000, 550, 950, 100,000, 550, 750 here in Q2.
对于第二季度，让我们看看特斯拉的情况。SNX仍然是10万个，在第三季度，这是10万，550，950，10万，550，750在第二季度。
So it looks like Shanghai, Tesla has now indicated greater than 950,000. The 750,000 before was significantly understating. Obviously Tesla's been at months where they're producing 80,000 vehicles, which is going to be pretty close to a million vehicles per year. So this is now more reflective of what the reality is. I wouldn't take this as any indication that there's going to be more upside in the Shanghai numbers.
所以看起来上海的特斯拉现在表明超过了950,000辆。之前的750,000是明显低估的。显然，特斯拉在某些月份生产了80,000辆车，这将接近每年一百万辆汽车。所以现在这更贴近现实情况。我不会把这看作是上海数字将会有更大增长的任何迹象。
I might have if Tesla had not said successfully running near full capacity for several quarters, and we do not expect a meaningful increase in weekly production rate. Had they not said that, this would be more exciting to me, but it looks like they're kind of just getting it more current with the reality of what Shanghai has been doing.
如果特斯拉没有成功地表示将在几个季度内以接近满产能运行，并且我们不希望每周产量有明显增长，我可能会这样认为。如果他们没有这样说，这对我来说可能会更令人兴奋，但看起来他们似乎只是更贴近上海工厂实际情况而已。
Berlin at 375. That's the same. Texas greater than 250, so that's the same. And then Cybertruck, so that is different, greater than 125,000 versus before it was in tooling now in pilot production. Maybe not super exciting to see it called pilot production when we've seen the Tesla Semi-In-Pilot production as well, but obviously there can be many different stages of pilot production and sensor-listing capacity. That's obviously a good sign for Cybertruck as well.
柏林满375岁了。这是一样的。得克萨斯超过250，所以也一样。然后是Cybertruck，因此是不同的，超过125,000而之前是在工具制造阶段现在是在试验生产阶段。或许被称为试验生产阶段并不太令人兴奋，因为我们之前也见过Tesla Semi处于试验生产阶段，但很显然试验生产阶段有许多不同的阶段和感应能力。这对Cybertruck来说显然是个好兆头。
Now the capacity number there might be disappointing to some. Again, this isn't necessarily reflective of what Tesla is targeting, certainly long-term. We just talked about Shanghai. Tesla's been listing 750 there for quite some time, but they've been producing more like a million run rate, so it doesn't necessarily mean that Tesla will kind of stop things here, but for the initial stage of Cybertruck production, probably not too surprising to see them kind of around that level.
目前，容量数字可能会令一些人失望。再次强调，这并不一定反映了特斯拉的目标，特别是从长期来看。我们刚刚谈到了上海的情况。特斯拉一直将其产量列为750，在过去很长一段时间内，但他们的实际产量更接近一百万辆的运营速率。所以这并不意味着特斯拉会在这里停滞不前，但对于Cybertruck生产的初阶段来说，看到他们在大致这个水平上并不令人惊讶。
All right, so let's take a look at some photos. Then we'll get into the financials, more details, Model Y starting price, inclusive of national and state level subsidies.
好的，让我们来看一些照片。然后我们会详细讨论财务情况，包括Model Y的起始价格以及国家和地方层面的补贴情况。
All right, well, certainly a different photo than we normally would see for Tesla. Usually it's a factory update or something like that, but interesting to see a shift. Tesla highlighting how affordable the vehicle is. There we go, some Cybertruck deliveries begin in November. All right, so that's exciting. Previously in the release, they'd only said this year, so for them to be more specific about November, that's nice, and obviously this is just a phenomenal photo. Don't really have anything else to say about that, but that's super exciting and just really nice photo there from Tesla.
好的，嗯，这张照片和我们通常在特斯拉看到的工厂升级之类的照片不太一样，这个变化很有意思。特斯拉强调了这款车的价格实惠。嗯，好的，一些Cybertruck的交付将于十一月开始。这真的很令人兴奋。在之前的声明中，他们只说了今年，所以能够更具体地提到十一月，这很好，而且不得不说这张照片真的很棒。关于这个照片，我真的没有其他的话要说了，但这对于特斯拉来说是非常令人激动和令人愉快的照片。
Megapack factory. All right. Give your factory Shanghai one millionth Model Y produced. Of course, we knew about that, and then we get our financials and declining operating margin, unfortunately, and then we get into our financials.
巨号工厂。好的。给你们上海工厂生产的第一百万辆Y型车。当然，我们已经知道了这一点，然后我们看到了我们的财务状况和营运利润率的下降，不幸的是，然后我们展开了我们的财务报表。
So I do want to take a quick look at automotive. Whew, that's tough. So regulatory credits, $554 million. That's going to be a significant driver of obviously revenues and margins. And even with that, still below my forecast, although now that I'm saying that, since there was no FSD deferred revenue, this actually kind of washes out because I had a combination of 325 million regulatory credits and 200 million deferred revenue. It doesn't look like there was any recognition of that. We'll see if there's a note on that in the 10Q, but this is obviously a quite high number and still only showing, you know, 7.6% operating margin. So obviously it's not quite as simple as just putting this on the bottom line. But if you look at Tesla's operating income, you know, that's almost a third of it from regulatory credits. So if you exclude that, you'd be talking about an operating margin, you know, closer to, I don't know, 4% or 5%, something in that ballpark.
所以我确实想简要看一下汽车业务。哇，这是困难的。所以监管信用额度为5.54亿美元。这将显然是收入和利润的重要驱动因素。即使如此，它仍低于我的预测，尽管现在我这么说，因为没有FSD延期收入，这实际上有点抵消了，因为我既有3.25亿美元的监管信用额度，也有2亿美元的延期收入。看起来没有对此进行认可。我们将看看是否有关于这一点的注释在10Q中，但这显然是一个相当高的数目，仍然只显示7.6%的营业利润率。所以显然情况并不像只是把这些数目写在最后一行那么简单。但是，如果你看特斯拉的营业收入，你会发现将近三分之一的收入来自监管信用。所以如果你排除这一点，你将会谈论到一个营业利润率，可能接近于，不知道，4% 到 5%之间的数字。
All right, let's see if there's just any other weird lines that kind of stick out here. Income taxes were quite a bit lower. I'll have to do the percentage calculation on that. Let's see, where did we have that significant other income last time? Probably the other income line. So 328 million last time, that's only 37 million this time, so much more normalized to past quarters. So obviously when we look at the quarter over quarter comparison, that's going to be, you know, $300 million less positive contributor to the bottom line that was last quarter.
好的，我们来看看是否有其他奇怪的数据线，在这里有些异常突出的地方。所得税下降了很多，我得对百分比做一下计算。让我看看，我们上次在哪里有那个重要的其他收入？可能是其他收入项目。上次是3.28亿美元，而这次只有3700万美元，所以更加接近过去几个季度的水平了。很明显，当我们对季度进行比较时，这将是上季度底线的300亿美元减少，对利润的正面贡献减少了。
And then we can see some of the earnings per share numbers, which we had taken a quick look at before. All right, so we'll get into the financials.
然后我们可以看到一些之前我们简单浏览过的每股收益数据。好的，接下来我们将进入财务方面的内容。
I mean, first take, I'm not super thrilled with the, with the report here. Obviously my expectations were a little bit higher in terms of margins. I'm glad that Tesla is bringing costs down. Those were a little bit higher than what I expected. I think it's like $400 a vehicle. So not, you know, maybe it was like 60% of what I had forecast in terms of the cost of goods sold improvement.
我的意思是，首先，我对这份报告并不是非常满意。显然，我的预期对于利润率有点高了。我很高兴特斯拉正在降低成本，相对于我的预期来说，它们略高了一些，大约是每辆车400美元。所以，成本的改善大约只达到了我预期的60%。
And obviously with some downtime and things like that, affecting the, the cost for the quarter, that's going to be a factor, you know, with the transition to highland and things like that. And then, you know, obviously just with this quarter in general, that's also true with downtime. You're going to take a hit on margins. You're going to take a hit on revenue. You're going to take a hit on the whole business. So it's, you know, it's one of those quarters that we not necessarily look past.
显然，在某些停机时间和其他因素的影响下，这个季度的成本将会受到影响，你知道，包括转向高地以及其他因素。而且，显然，这个季度总体上来说，停机时间也会对业绩产生影响。利润率将会受到打击，收入将会减少，整个业务都会遭受损失。因此，这是一个我们不容忽视的季度。
There are a lot of things here that I think are important to consider, even with margins, even with the downtime, you know, contributing to that. But it is still worth noting and worth remembering as we kind of look at this quarter. Um, and it's relevance going forward.
这里有很多我认为值得考虑的事情，即使考虑了利润和空闲时间，你知道，这都对其有所贡献。但仍值得注意并记住，因为我们正在审视本季度。嗯，对未来的相关性而言，这仍然值得关注。
All right. So yeah, I mean, I think as I was saying, like it, not, not the most exciting quarter here, I would have liked to have seen stronger margins. X regulatory credits will take a look at what that actually shakes out to. Uh, it's going to be quite a bit lower than my, than my forecast, um, which obviously that means there's pressure going forward. You know, we, we're getting to a point where we can't necessarily see Tesla to continue to lower prices because those operating margins aren't, you know, 7.6% certainly healthy.
好的。嗯，我的意思是，我觉得这个季度不是最令人激动的，我本来希望能看到更高的利润率。X项监管征收会对实际情况进行评估。嗯，这将会比我原先的预期要低很多，显然这将给未来带来压力。你知道，我们已经到了一个不能指望特斯拉继续降价的点，因为那些运营利润率并不是很健康，不可能继续保持在7.6%的水平。
It's fine. Tesla's free cash, real positive adding cash to the business. Higher highest cap X ever, I think probably here at 2.4 billion. Um, that's, you know, almost $10 billion annualized. So that's the most important thing as we have talked about before. I don't want to overemphasize anything particular to this one quarter because ultimately long term, what we want to see from Tesla, what Zachar Corne had mentioned last earnings call or maybe in Q one. For Tesla right now, it's about being able to support their investments going forward.
这很好。特斯拉的自由现金流对业务产生了实质性的积极影响。市值历史最高水平，我认为可能达到240亿美元。嗯，那基本上相当于每年100亿美元。正如我们之前所讨论的，这是最重要的事情。我不想过分强调这一个季度的任何特定方面，因为在最终的长期目标中，我们希望看到特斯拉能够支持他们未来的投资，这是扎克·科塞罗尼在上次财报电话会议上或者可能是在一季度时提到的。对于特斯拉而言，现在最重要的是能够支持他们未来的投资。
And as we're, as we're seeing here, there's still very much able to do that with this kind of a business. We'd love to see it be more profitable, I think as investors. Uh, but long term, whether Tesla makes, you know, a billion dollars this year or $10 billion this year for an $800 billion company. That's not what the value of the company is about. Obviously, this extrapolates, you know, margins and everything like that going forward and it's, it's relevant, but the actual results in terms of the value to the business, um, aside from what they mean for the future, which is relevant, uh, are not all that significant.
正如我们所看到的，对于这种类型的企业来说，仍然有很多可以做的。作为投资者，我们希望看到它变得更加盈利。但从长远来看，特斯拉今年能否赚10亿美元或者100亿美元对于一个价值8000亿美元的公司来说并不重要。这显然是在未来推测利润率等等，并且是相关的，但实际的业务价值除了对未来意味着什么之外并不那么重要。
So it's a little bit different. You know, it's that you're kind of holding two thoughts in your head at the same time of, um, this quarter, not that important long term, but some of the things that we learned from this quarter are also important long term. So hopefully that kind of makes sense.
所以有点不同。你知道，就是你同时在头脑中持有两种想法，一方面是这个季度长期来看并不重要，但我们从这个季度中学到的一些东西在长期来看也很重要。希望这样讲得清楚一些。
All right. Let's get into the financials, the, you know, the best part of, of these updates. Before we do that, just in case anyone kind of dips out at this point, again, we'll do the earnings calls that'll be in about an hour. The link for that is down in the description. So I'll do my normal following along, taking notes as Tesla goes through the call and then we'll just recap what we learned from the call quickly after they wrap up.
好的。让我们进入财务方面吧，你知道的，这是这些更新中最重要的部分。在我们开始之前，万一有人在这一点上离开的话，我们将在大约一个小时后进行收益电话。链接在描述中。所以我会像往常一样跟进，记录特斯拉在电话会议中讨论的内容，然后在他们结束后快速总结我们从电话会议中学到的内容。
All right. So let's hop back over to the spreadsheet. And as usual, bear with me as I get a how fill this in with the actuals and try not to make any mistakes. If you guys see anything, let me know. Although I'm losing faith in the live chat to give me accurate information after you guys misled me on the earnings being out.
好的。那么我们回到电子表格上吧。请耐心等待，我将填入实际数据，并尽量不出错。如果你们发现任何问题，请告诉我。尽管在关于盈利已公布的问题上，你们误导了我，我对于通过即时聊天获得准确信息的信心有所减弱。
All right. So where do we want to start here? Energy storage. So that's not a good one because it's not on the line I'm looking at. But I'll find it here. So that was 39 80. So I was 13% too high and I was 66% too low. I already know this one's 49. So obviously we're quite a bit high on that one.
好的。那我们从哪里开始呢？能源储存。这个不行，因为它不在我看的那个线上。但我会找到的。所以那是39 80。所以我高了13％并且低了66％。我已经知道这个是49。所以显然我们对那个高了很多。
All right. Total automotive sales. That's going to be 19, 625. So you know, I'm 1% too high. It's pretty close. But again, I've only got $325 million of regulatory credits in here. I think this was 554 if I remember correctly, but we'll just double check that. So if it looks like I'm not doing anything, I'm flipping back to the browser. I'm not going to waste your guys's time flipping that as well.
好的，总体来看，汽车销售量大约是19,625辆。你知道的，我估计高了1%。相差不大。但是，这个数字中只包括了3.25亿美元的法规信贷。如果我没记错的话，应该是5.54亿美元，我们再核实一下。所以如果看起来我不做任何事情，我只是在切换到浏览器上确认一下。我不会浪费你们的时间来回切换的。
But that was the F554. So if we just really quick mental math, exclude regulatory credits, my automotive gross margin would have been at or sorry, my automotive revenue would have been at 19.6 billion roughly versus the actual would have been at 19 points, you know, one, even a little bit less than that. So I was definitely too high on average selling prices. We'll see exactly how that shook out. But as I mentioned, this is one of the areas we just didn't have a lot of insight into.
但那是F554车型。所以如果我们非常快速地进行心算，排除监管信用的影响，我的汽车毛利润大致上应该为196亿美元，而实际上只有19点一点点多。所以我的平均销售价格明显过高。我们将看到具体情况如何发展。但正如我所提到的，这是我们对这个领域了解不多的其中之一。
You know, it's pretty much just a guessing game for everyone this quarter because of the inventory discounts. And no one really having any way to know how many orders were coming from inventory at those discounted prices versus being fulfilled from new orders and things like that. So, you know, I had more than $1,100 drop or about an $1,100 drop in here, but I'm guessing it's going to be a little bit closer to a couple thousand when we get that number in there.
你知道的，这个季度对每个人来说基本上都是一个猜测的游戏，因为有库存折扣。而且实际上没有人知道有多少订单是以优惠价格从库存中出货，而不是通过新订单和其他方式来完成的。所以，你知道的，我在这里的销售额下降了超过1,100美元，但我猜想当我们得到那个数字时，它可能会接近几千美元。
All right. So energy sales, that's going to be 1559. So no surprise that that was a little bit lower. You can see so I got the average selling price right just too high on the results. So also 13% too high on revenue and then service and other definitely was too high on this one. This is probably the lowest growth quarter we've ever seen for service and others services and other looks like Q3 or Q4 in a Q3 last year was, yeah, not even the same level. So probably the lowest growth we've seen. I'd have to go back and look at the history, but caught us off guard with a pretty significant growth there in the second quarter and then really marginal growth here in the third quarter.
好的。所以能源销售额是1559。所以并不奇怪它稍微低一些。你可以看到，我得到的平均售价太高了。收入也高出了13%。而服务和其他方面也显然太高了。这可能是我们曾经见过的服务和其他服务部门增长最慢的季度。看起来像是去年Q3或Q4的Q3，甚至还不到同一水平。所以可能是我们见过的增长最低的。我得去查一下历史记录，但第二季度的相当显著的增长真的让我们感到措手不及，而这个季度的增长则非常微弱。
We'll take a look at margins though. We haven't seen what those looked like yet, aside from Tesla saying the, you know, the half a billion dollars in profit from those two lines. These numbers are not correct yet. Obviously they did not post 100% margins on everything. So I just need to take the cost out of these lines. So let's just be really careful that we get the totals. Sometimes it's split up with leasing and stuff.
我们来看看利润率。除了特斯拉说的那两条生产线带来的五亿美元利润，我们还没有看到具体数字。这些数字还不准确。显然，并非所有产品都能实现百分之百的利润率。因此，我只需要计算这些生产线的成本。所以，我们必须非常小心确保得出正确的总数。有时，其中会包括租赁等额外费用。
All right. So cost of revenues. Total cost of revenues was 15, 957. So I'm going to take that out. That's going to leave us with our automotive profit. I'm not sure if Tesla, yeah, Tesla puts gross profit. So we'll just make sure that the gross profit lines up when we get through that energy cost of energy sales was 1178. So we'll take that out. So $381 million there, really nice improvement. Wow. 24% gross margin on energy. So that's really great. As I said, I was a little bit hesitant to reflect further increases here, but to see that that's great because this is also a number that Tesla's hitting while they're still ramping. And over time, there should be actually some nice margins from servicing energy projects, as well as obviously some of the software features Tesla employees. So super excited to see that energy margin. That's I think one of the probably the very, maybe not the brightest spot of the quarter, but one of the very bright spots of this quarter, we'd be the energy margin just like last quarter. So it'll be exciting as that business continues to grow. And then service another was 2037. So let me take that out. Looks like someone just said that November 30th for cyber truck deliveries. Thank you for that super chat, by the way. We'll take a look at that in a second. All right. So $4178. That's what I had said before. Yep, so total gross profit matches there.
好的，成本支出。总成本支出为15,957美元。所以我将把这个数字排除在外。这将使我们的汽车利润清晰可见。我不确定特斯拉是不是列出了毛利润。所以我们在继续能源销售成本时要确保毛利润保持一致。能源销售成本为1178美元。所以在这方面有了381万美元的大幅改善。哇，能源的毛利率为24%。这非常棒。正如我所说，我有些犹豫是否能再次提高这个数字，但能看到这个数字真的很不错，因为特斯拉在仍然在不断扩大规模的时候，就能达到这个数字。随着时间的推移，从为能源项目提供服务和提供特斯拉员工的软件功能中，应该能获得一些不错的利润率。非常激动地看到能源利润率这么高。我认为这可能是本季度最亮眼的方面之一，就像上一季度一样。随着这个业务的持续增长，会更加令人兴奋。再有，售后服务为2037美元。所以让我排除掉这个数字。看起来有人刚才说11月30日是Cybertruck交付日期。顺便说一句，感谢您的超级聊天。我们一会儿再来看看这个。好的。所以是4178美元。我之前说过这个数字。总毛利润是匹配的。
All right, so we can see here. Obviously, excluding FSD revenue, I would have been at 18.1 for the X credits. Yeah, excluding deferred revenue and excluding credits, I would have been at 18.1 here, but we did see this drop to 16.3. We'll calculate the ASPs. Excuse me here in a second. And then service and others that actually dropped services and other that actually dropped from 7.7% to 6%. So that's going to offset a bit of the benefit that we saw from Tesla Energy. So kind of interesting to see that. Again, not something that we have seen historically from that business. So I'm not sure what exactly happened there in the second quarter, but low revenue growth and drop in margins. Obviously, it's a relatively lower impact line item, but still interesting to see nonetheless.
好的，所以我们可以从这里看到。很显然，除去全自动驾驶（FSD）收入，我本应该有18.1个X学分。是的，除去递延收入和学分，我应该有18.1个X学分，但我们看到这个数字下降到16.3。我们将计算平均售价（ASPs）。请稍等片刻。然后服务和其他实际上下降了从7.7%下降到6%。这将抵消我们从特斯拉能源看到的一些好处。所以很有意思看到这一点。再次强调，这并不是我们在这个业务上看到的历史现象。所以我不确定第二季度发生了什么，但是营收增长低和利润率下降。显然，这是一个相对较低影响的项目，但还是很有趣看到的。
All right, R&D. So that was 1161. So actually even higher than that. So I'm actually glad that that's one of the things that's driving the operating margin a little bit lower. Obviously if you look here at. So my automotive revenue, obviously was too high offset a bit by Energy. And then service and other, that's going to be a lower impact line. But overall, if you exclude my FSD deferred revenue here, probably off by, I don't know, maybe 50 basis points, 40 or 50 basis points on the gross margin line. And then that's going to be off by more on the operating margin line because it looks like operating expenses are coming in higher.
好的，研发团队。所以，这个数字是1161。实际上，这比那个数字还要高一些。所以我很高兴这是导致运营利润率稍微降低的因素之一。显然，如果你看一下这里的数据，我的汽车收入显然太高了，部分被能源所抵消。而服务和其他方面的影响则较小。但总体来说，如果我们排除这里的FSD（全自动驾驶）递延收入，可能毛利率线上有50个基点或者40到50个基点的偏差。而经营利润率线上的偏差可能会更大，因为看起来经营费用更高。
I don't mind that though, because I'm certainly content with Tesla spending as they feel as necessary on R&D and SGA. I wouldn't want them to constrain that because those are things that are going to allow for future growth in the business. So as we talked about yesterday, rather of higher gross margin and higher operating expenses, then lower gross margin and lower operating expenses kind of knitting out at the bottom and in the same way.
我对此并不介意，因为我对特斯拉在研发和销售一般费用上按照他们认为必要的支出非常满意。我不希望他们对此进行限制，因为这些是有助于未来业务增长的因素。所以正如我们昨天讨论的那样，相比较较高的毛利率和较高的运营费用，我更倾向于较低的毛利率和较低的运营费用，在两者达到底线时以相同的方式进行调整。
Alright SG&A, so that was 1253, so it looks like that was pretty close to my estimate there. So really the overage, you know, and versus my forecast coming from SGA, or from R&D, sorry. No restructuring in others, so no surprise on that. But good to have that confirmed. Yeah, so operating expenses coming in at about $150 million more than my expectations, primarily driven by the R&D line. So 6% too low, analysts very low at 13% off on that one. So netting out operating margin 7.6% versus mine of 9.4. But again, probably more than half of that coming from differences in really a R&D, if we kind of knitted that out. Maybe not quite half. But although now that I'm saying that regulatory credits, I got to remember that too. So that's one of the things that really boosted, you know, both these numbers.
好的SG&A，所以这是1253，看起来和我的估计非常接近。所以实际上超支在SGA或研发方面与我的预测相比，没有其他方面的重组，所以这并不令人惊讶。但很高兴得到确认。是的，运营费用比我的预期多了大约1.5亿美元，主要是由研发线驱动。所以6%低，分析师非常低，相差13%。所以净运营利润率为7.6%，而我的估计是9.4%。但再次强调，其中可能有一半以上是源于研发的差异，如果我们排除这部分。也许不到一半。但是当我说到监管信贷时，我也必须记住这一点。因此，这就是真正提升了这两个数字的一些因素之一。
Alright, EBITDA, take a look at that. Alright, so that's 3758, non-Gapnet income. It's going to be 2318. Stock-based compensation, 465. We'll have to get those right. Wish more of them had been right. It's like it was this Gapnet income 1853. We'll just double check that. Make sure that's alright. It is. And we're at 66 cents here, 53 cents here.
好的，我们来看一下EBITDA。好的，非标准化净收入是3758。将会是2318。股权补偿是465。我们得把这些数字弄准。希望更多的数字是对的。感觉就好像这个标准化净收入是1853。我们再仔细核对一下。确保没问题。没问题了。这里是66美分，那里是53美分。
Alright, so fatefully, let's calculate the new bottom line for the PE. That's going to be $3.11 coming down from $3.53. So not sure exactly what the stock's doing. Stock is up. Wow. That's very surprising to me. Just to show how low the expectations were for this report. Obviously, miss of analyst expectations, but as we talk about sometimes the whisper number or the real expectations don't really match what those analyst figures are. But right now, Tesla up 2.3% after hours. Obviously, a tough day today, but still interesting to see that. Maybe that's from the cyber-drug date being said, I don't know. So I forgot what I was talking about there. PE. So we're at, let's say, $2.49 now keeps going up. And $3.11. Price earnings is about an 80 versus before.
好的，那么命运似乎注定，让我们来计算新的市盈率底线。这将从3.53美元下降到3.11美元。对于股票的走势，我不太确定。股价上涨了。哇，这对我来说非常令人惊讶。这只是为了展示该报告预期非常低。显然，分析师的预期没有达到，但我们有时会谈到的"密语数字"或真实预期实际上与分析师的数据不太吻合。但现在特斯拉盘后上涨了2.3％。显然，今天是艰难的一天，但仍然很有趣。也许这是因为"网络麻醉剂"的原因，我不知道。所以我忘记我正在讲什么。市盈率方面，我们现在是2.49美元，不断上涨。市盈率约为80，与之前相比。
I guess I can just change this. We'd have been a 70. So 70, 71 now going to 80 at the same share price with the lower EPS number here. Free cash flow. Obviously, I'm just going to put $800 in here for now. I know it was in that ballpark. We don't need the exact figure there. I'll just update that later. All right, let's get ASP. So we need a couple of things for that. Get my ASP calculator over here. Auto revenue from leasing. Let's put that in there. So that's going to be $4.89 cost of leasing. It's $3.01. And at least deliveries was something $17,000. Where did that one go? $17,423. And that should fill this in for us. We'll just shrink those a bit.
我想我可以简单地改变这个数字。我们一开始是70，所以现在是70、71，同样的股票价格，现在会变成80，这里的每股盈利数字较低。自由现金流。显然，现在我只是在这里放入800美元。我知道大概是在那个范围内。我们不需要精确的数字。稍后我会更新那个。好的，让我们来看ASP。所以我们需要几个东西。让我把我的ASP计算器放在这里。从租赁中的自动收入。让我们放进去。额，那是4.89美元，租赁成本是3.01美元。租赁交付是大约17,000次。那个是哪个来着？17,423次。这样就填好了。我们只需要把它们缩小一点。
Alright. So that was 1% too high on ASP. We don't get an analyst estimate on that. We don't get enough information to calculate it. But it looks like it was a decline quarter of a quarter of about $1,500. Get the exact number there. A little bit less than $1,500 versus cost declining by about $500, $4.21. So that's obviously what's compressing the margins down to this 16% X credit number. Overall, numbers being pretty significantly boosted by the 554 million in regulatory credit revenue. I'm not surprised to see that bounce back. Obviously, my forecast was for a smaller bounce back. But obviously, the last quarter was quite a bit lower than where Tesla's been averaging. And I would expect it probably drops a little bit more in Q4. With this being maybe a little bit tougher of a quarter, and there's being some downtime, things like that, Tesla might have wanted to boost that a little bit more on the regulatory credit sales line, particularly for this quarter.
好的。所以ASP相比预期高了1%。我们没有获得分析师对此的估计。我们没有足够的信息来计算它。但看起来上个季度的ASP下降了约1500美元。请找到精确的数字。与成本下降约500美元相比，即每股4.21美元。这显然是将利润率压缩至16%（不计入信贷）的原因。总体而言，数字受到5.54亿美元监管信用收入的相当大提振。我对此反弹不感到惊讶。显然，我的预测是一个较小的反弹。但显然，上个季度相对于特斯拉的平均水平下降了很多。我预计在第四季度可能会再降一点。在本季度可能会较为困难，也可能有一些停工等问题，特斯拉可能希望在监管信用销售领域进一步提振这方面的数据，特别是在本季度。
All right. So trying to think of anything else I want to point out about that. But yeah, I mean, I was forecasting a little bit more than 1,000. Came into down 1,400 and not too bad in terms of the difference there, I wouldn't say.
好的。所以，我试图想起来还有什么其他要指出的事情。但是，我原本预测会超过1000，结果只有1400，与之前的差异来说还不算太糟糕，我想。
And obviously, the FSD stuff that I talked about. I'm kind of surprised that there was no recognition of that, at least to my knowledge so far. We'll see if Tesla talks about that. But certainly interesting.
显然，我所提到的FSD功能。我有点惊讶的是，至少据我所知迄今为止没有对此给予任何认可。我们将会看到特斯拉是否会提及这一点。但确实非常有趣。
I am glad to see that the costs continue to come down. Obviously, we'd all love for that to be happening more quickly. But there are still going to be costs that are 4680 related, ramping up of Berlin and Texas in the downtime of Thailand, and all that sort of stuff is going to not super cleanly, but it is going to impact the cogs as well.
我很高兴看到成本继续下降。显然，我们都希望这种情况能更快发生。但依然会存在与4680相关的成本，以及柏林和德克萨斯的投产，以及泰国停产期间可能发生的各种情况，这些都会对成本产生一定的影响，虽然可能不是特别干净利落。
All right. Let's hop over to X here, because it sounds like we've got a Cybertruck update. Let's just see. I'm not seeing that yet. I know you're still on Excel. Let me flip you back. So Tesla posted this. Oh, first line. Great reading. Cybertruck production remains on track for later this year with first delivery scheduled for November 30 at Giga, Texas. So we've got about five, six weeks left until Cybertrucks are really in the hands of customers. Super exciting for that milestone. We'll see what else Tesla says here, because obviously, at least as far as I saw this, was not included in the earnings report. Production of 4680s progressing, a lot of Y. Yep, all that stuff we had talked about, and then a couple of images from the deck.
好的。让我们转到这里的X，因为听起来我们有一个关于Cybertruck的更新。让我们来看看。我还没有看到那个。我知道你还在用Excel。让我切回来给你看。所以特斯拉发布了这个。哦，第一行。阅读很棒。Cybertruck的生产仍在计划中，预计将于今年晚些时候在德克萨斯州的Giga工厂首次交付，定于11月30日。所以我们还剩下大约五六个星期，Cybertruck真正到达客户手中，这个里程碑非常令人激动。我们来看看特斯拉在这里还说了什么，因为显然，至少在我看到的这个里面，没有包括在财报中。4680电池的生产进展顺利，有很多的Y。是的，所有我们谈论过的那些，然后是几张图片从这个演示文稿中选出来的。
All right. And then as I told you guys, the stock not quite as rebounded as it was before, but right now up 1.8% after hours, which is interesting. Again, for me, I think obviously I was hoping for a little bit better margins. The ASP is not really too far off of what I expected though, so I'm not super disappointed in that. And cost-controlled, I think there's room for further progress. So I'm not too disappointed in the margins. I am probably a little bit more disappointed to hear what Tesla talks about here with their ramps. I can't remember what section that was in. I think here. So again, we're expecting the Model Y production rate in Texas to grow very gradually from the current level. Shanghai, near full capacity, was hoping for Shanghai that with the Highland Model 3 that they would go further, and they may. Doesn't necessarily tell us their exact plans. It's nice to have positive surprises too sometimes. Certainly, the market likes that. But for them to say, near full capacity, we do not expect a meaningful increase, a little bit disappointing. And then the same thing with Berlin. We saw pretty slow ramps this quarter in Berlin and Texas. And obviously, Texas had the downtime, but it just looks like they're taking their foot off the accelerator there on production.
好的。然后正如我告诉你们的那样，股票的回升程度不如之前那么大，但现在盘后上涨了1.8%，这是有意思的。对我来说，我觉得显然我希望利润率能更好一些。销售平均价格与我预期的差距不太大，所以我对此并不失望。在成本控制方面，我认为还有进一步的改进空间。所以对于利润率，我并不太失望。我可能更失望的是听到特斯拉在这里谈论他们的生产计划。我记不清是在哪个部分了，我想是这个部分。所以，我们预计得克萨斯州的Model Y产量将从目前的水平逐渐增长。上海工厂接近满负荷生产，希望上海工厂与高地Model 3一起继续扩张，他们可能也会这样做。这并不一定告诉我们他们的具体计划。有时候有积极的意外也是好事。市场当然喜欢这样。但他们说接近满负荷生产，我们并不指望有明显的增长，有点令人失望。柏林也是同样的情况。我们在本季度看到柏林和得克萨斯的生产增长比较缓慢。当然，得克萨斯还有停工时间，但看起来他们正在减缓产量。
So we'll see. We've talked before. Eventually, the three and the Y are going to top out. We're probably at that point or very close to that point. And that's fine. SNX got us to Model 3. 3 and Y. We're going to get us to Cybertruck, Semi, Next Generation Platform, hopefully FSD, all this stuff that the 3 and Y have funded and are going to continue to fund at these levels. And that's what it's about right now, is funding those things, getting to the next stage.
所以我们会看到的。我们以前谈过。最终，Model 3和Y的销量会达到顶峰。我们可能已经达到或非常接近这个点了。那没关系。SNX帮我们实现了Model 3。3和Y将帮助我们实现Cybertruck、Semi、下一代平台以及希望实现的FSD，所有这些都是由Model 3和Y提供资金，并将继续在这个水平上提供资金。现在，重点是为这些项目提供资金，迈向下一个阶段。
Tesla's always gone in these plateaus, whether it's the business or the stock price. I mean, you can go back and you can look at it. There are years where Tesla grew deliveries less than 50%. I want to make sure I'm right on that. Certainly revenue growth has oscillated a bit. So we just might be in one of those periods where we're kind of through the early stage of the ramp of these products. And now we're kind of waiting for the early stage of the ramp of the next products. And in five years, maybe those top out. And we're waiting for optimists or something like that. But businesses are cyclical. In hindsight, it looks like a really smooth curve. But as we know with Tesla daily, it's not always that way every day brings something different. So again, it's kind of you got to hold these multiple thoughts in your head, I think at the same time.
特斯拉在业务或股价方面总是经历这些平台阶段。我的意思是，你可以回头看看。有些年份特斯拉的交付增长不到50%。我想确保我是对的。当然，收入增长有时会有波动。所以我们可能正处于产品启动初期的一个阶段，现在我们在等待下一个产品的启动初期。也许在五年后，这些增长会达到顶峰。我们只能靠乐观主义者或其他一些因素。但是企业是循环的。事后看起来像是一个非常平稳的曲线。但正如我们在特斯拉日报所看到的，不是每一天都是如此。所以，我认为你必须同时抱持这些不同的想法。
All right. Well, I think that's about everything. We got about 45 minutes until the earnings call yet. I might just take a quick look through some of the comments here. Looks like we got a few superjets. Thank you for those. I think my software here actually gives me a way to look at those now, which I'm just noticing. Before I had to kind of scroll through.
好的。嗯，我想这差不多就是全部了。直到盈利电话会议还有大约45分钟。我可能只是简单地浏览一下这里的一些评论。看起来我们有一些超级热门的评论。谢谢大家。我想我的软件现在实际上可以让我查看这些评论，我刚刚注意到这一点。以前我不得不滚动查看。
Joel, all right. I always love hearing from Joel Sapp. I think my first gold supporter on Patreon ever. So Joel's goes way back. But curious what question you would ask if you could on the call. That's a really good one. I've kind of given up on the say questions. Just with the process being how it is these days. So I haven't really been thinking quite as much about what I would ask. Should've looked at that before. Put that on screen. Let me think about it a little bit more and we'll come back to it.
Joel，好的。我总是很喜欢听到Joel Sapp的消息。我记得他是我在Patreon上的第一个黄金赞助者。所以我和Joel的联系早就有了。但是如果你有机会和他通话，你会问什么问题，我很好奇。这个问题非常好。现在的情况如何，我已经对问问题失去了兴趣。所以我并没有过多考虑我会问什么。应该提前看一下。让我再考虑一下，然后我们再回头来讨论这个问题。
Chris, thank you. See some people put super stickers. I can't show those on the screen, but appreciate those as well. Mauser, thanks for, calling that out. All right. Just take a quick look and see if there's other questions or comments here. Bradley, thank you for that. Thoughts on FSD, pay per mile billing model? Yeah, we've actually, we've talked about that briefly in the past. I don't know if pay per mile is quite as attractive as just like a monthly subscription. It might be something that's worth trying out, especially because Tesla kind of needs to build that sort of processing if they eventually aspire to have a robust XE fleet. Obviously that would be something that would be booked per mile or per minute or some combination of those things. So, if you've got to build that sort of infrastructure anyway, maybe it's worth offering that to customers too. I think there's viability for that, but not really until it's a case where Tesla's actually taking over their driving responsibility, SANS monitoring. When you're still having to pay attention, I think you're not probably gonna wanna pay per mile as I think just psychologically, people don't probably like that. It's easier if you're paying for time, I think, but I don't think you're gonna pay like a dollar or not a dollar a mile, but whatever, pennies per mile to use autopilot or something like that. But once Tesla or if Tesla starts to take over their responsibility, then sure, that would be I think a great option and people would be very, very happy to pay that. Just sort of on demand as needed for long trips or whatever else.
克里斯，谢谢你。看到有些人贴上了超级贴纸。虽然我无法在屏幕上展示它们，但对此也表示感激。梅瑟，谢谢你指出这一点。好的，我先快速浏览一下是否有其他问题或评论。布拉德利，谢谢你提出这个问题。对于按里程计费模式的全自动驾驶系统（FSD）有何看法？实际上，我们在之前简短地谈论过这个问题。我不确定按里程计费是否像一个月订阅计费那样有吸引力。或许值得试一试，特别是因为特斯拉如果最终渴望拥有一支强大的出租车队，需要建立这种处理方式。显然，这种情况下会按里程或按分钟计费，或者两者兼而有之。因此，如果不得不建立这种基础设施，或许也值得向客户提供此选择。我认为这种做法是可行的，但只有在特斯拉实际上开始承担驾驶责任、无需驾驶员监控时才成立。当你仍然需要保持警惕时，我认为你可能不会愿意按里程计费，因为从心理上讲，人们可能不喜欢这样做。如果按时间计费会更容易接受，但我不认为人们会为使用自动驾驶系统支付每英里几分钱之类的费用。但一旦特斯拉开始承担驾驶责任，那么无疑这将是一个很好的选择，人们会非常愿意支付相应费用，根据需要进行长途旅行或其他需求。
Julian, thank you, appreciate that. I'm still trying to think of Joel's question here and what question I would ask. I don't know, I mean, one of the things that just kinda like top of mind right now is these production ramps of like, all right, we're heading into 2024 now. Tesla's talked about the 50% compound annual growth rate. Obviously, Elon's response is gonna be, that's a long-term figure, there's gonna be years that maybe are below that. Maybe next year is one of those years. It's kinda what it's looking like right now. And then next generation vehicle happens and then it kinda like spikes back up. That's kinda what I'd expect, but I think just kinda getting the thoughts on like, all right, is Model 3 and Model Y kind of at their peak right now. But again, that's sort of a short-term question in nature, so it's probably not something that I would, you know, if I had one question, it's not what I would ask.
朱利安，谢谢你，感激不尽。我仍在思考乔尔的问题，以及我会问什么问题。我不知道，我的意思是，现在我头脑里想到的一个事情是，我们正处于生产增长阶段，接下来会进入2024年。特斯拉提到过50%的年复合增长率。显然，埃隆的回答会是，这是一个长期的数字，某些年份可能会低于这个值。明年可能就是其中之一，看起来是这样的。然后下一代车型出现，增长率就会反弹。我预计会是这样，但我认为更想知道的是，现在的Model 3和Model Y是否已经达到巅峰。但这个问题其实是一个短期的问题，所以如果我只有一个问题的话，我可能不会问这个。
But Bert, thank you, appreciate that. Yeah, I don't know, maybe I'll have a better answer. I answer on that one after the call. All right, just looking through. Lots of nice comments from people, thank you. I appreciate those. Robbie seemed devastated. People always react to me, my demeanor. I just, I don't think people really understand. I'm just not like a, I don't know, I'm not like a, I don't know, I don't know the word, but like super-emotive. I guess like RBF would be a fine way of describing me.
但是，Bert，谢谢你，非常感激。是的，我不知道，也许我以后会有一个更好的答案。通话结束后，我会就这个问题回答你。好的，我现在只是在浏览一下。有很多人给我留下了很好的评论，谢谢。罗比似乎很沮丧。人们总是对我有所反应，对我的态度有所评论。我只是觉得人们真的不太理解。我不是那种非常情绪化的人，我不知道，我不知道用什么词来形容，但是像"RBF"可能是一个好的方式来描述我。
But yeah, that's, I think if you just looked at me every day and there was some bad news that had happened and then you just put it on, you know, next to me and assume that I knew about it, even if I didn't, then you would say I'm devastated, is kind of how I would describe it.
嗯，是的，我觉得如果你每天都看着我，然后给我看一些不好的消息，即使我不知道，你就会认为我已经知道了，这样的话，我会说我感到非常沮丧。
But anyway, people just way, way, way over-read into what they think my emotions are and usually are not even close to correct.
无论如何，人们总是过分推测我情感的含义，而且通常都离真相相差甚远。
Obviously I'm a little bit disappointed in their report. Like I'm not gonna deny that. It's certainly below my expectations. So like, yeah, I would like it to be above my expectations versus below it and if it's below it, then it's gonna be a little bit disappointing coupled with the fact that we've got some updates here on production that are a little bit less than exciting.
显然，我对他们的报告有些失望。我不会否认这一点。这当然是低于我的期望。所以，我希望它能超出我的期望，而不是低于它，如果低于它，那会有些失望，再加上我们在生产方面得到的一些不太令人兴奋的更新。
So certainly I'm not thrilled about those things, but that's a far, far, far cry from being devastated.
所以，我对这些事情肯定不是很高兴，但这与感到沮丧相差甚远。
Like I said, Tesla's still, they're making a lot of money, lots of lots of money. It's sitting on $26 billion in cash that gives them ample room to spend.
就像我说的那样，特斯拉仍然在大赚特赚，赚了很多很多的钱。它现在有260亿美元的现金储备，这使得他们有充足的资金用于开支。
Like I said, $2.4 billion here this quarter on all of these really, really exciting future projects which are no less exciting today than they were yesterday.
就像我说的那样，在这个季度，我们在所有这些非常非常令人兴奋的未来项目上获得了24亿美元的收入。这些项目，无论是今天还是昨天，都同样令人兴奋。
So, you know, I'm an owner of Tesla, not just for the Model 3 and the Model Y business lines, right? Like we, I've been saying that these are gonna plateau at some point for quite a while. If we're there, that's fine. You know, this gives Tesla plenty of run rate and capital to get to the next leg, which, you know, it's gonna take some time. We gotta be your super patient, but we will get there and those businesses will be very exciting when they finally come.
所以，你知道，我是特斯拉的所有者，不只是对Model 3和Model Y业务线，对吧？就像我们一直在说的那样，这些业务线在某个时间点会趋于平稳。如果我们已经达到那个点，那没关系。你知道，这给了特斯拉足够的现金流和资本来迈向下一个阶段，这需要一些时间。我们必须非常耐心，但我们最终会成功，那些业务线将会变得非常令人兴奋。
Cybertrap account page on X. I'll check that out. Let's see, I think we can just get the followed by cybertrap perfectly. All right, delivery event.
在X上的Cybertrap账户页面。我会去看一下。让我想想，我认为我们可以完美地获得cybertrap的跟随者。好的，交付事件。
Ah ha, throw back to the original unveiling when no one could figure out what this, what this image was. There was so much speculation around that, if you guys remember.
啊哈，回想起最初揭示时，没有人能够弄明白这个，这个图像是什么。大家可能还记得当时对此的众多猜测。
Looks like that's the only update here, but yeah, delivery event for November 30th. Looks like Tesla getting that, you know, those preparations while underway. So exciting to see that.
看起来这是这里唯一的更新了，但是是的，11月30日的交付事件。看起来特斯拉正在进行那些准备工作。很激动能看到这一切。
All right, guys, we'll have a chance to talk again soon. So I think we'll wrap it up here for now. DM, thank you, appreciate that. Yeah, we'll wrap this one up for now.
好的，伙计们，我们很快会有机会再谈。所以我想我们就暂时结束了。DM，谢谢，非常感激。是的，我们就先到这里吧。
Let's just take a quick look at, you know, up a little bit less. Not terribly surprised. But I'm glad to see that it's holding up, okay. You know, people hopefully taken it and stride.
让我们只是快速看一下，你知道的，稍微少一点。没有太大的惊讶。但我很高兴看到它仍然不错。你知道，希望人们会冷静应对。
Anyway, again, the link for the earnings call, which will start in about 40 minutes, that's down in the description. All, you know, you guys can listen along with me. I'll take notes and things like that. And then we can, you know, talk about what we learned on the earnings call, because right now we don't have the full picture with just the report, and we'll learn a little bit more. And we'll get our first introduction really to our new CFO. So excited about that.
总之，在40分钟后开始的收益电话中，链接在描述中已经放置了。大家可以和我一起听。我会记笔记等等。然后我们可以讨论在收益电话中我们学到的东西，因为现在光有报告还不能完全了解情况，我们会多学到一些。我们也将正式见到我们的新CFO，非常期待。
All right, that'll wrap it up for today, as always. Well, no, that'll wrap it up for this episode. As always, thanks for listening. Find me on XAT Tesla podcast, and we'll see you in a bit for the earnings call. Thank you.
好的，今天的节目到此为止，和往常一样。嗯，不，这一集就到这里了。感谢一如既往地聆听。在XAT特斯拉播客上找到我，稍后我们将参加收益电话会议。谢谢。