Reviewers Rave About New Model 3 / Tesla Q3 Things to Watch / GM Delays EV Production ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. First up today we have Tesla yet again urging the Biden administration to push for even stricter fuel economy rules, something they seem to do every few weeks. The proposal earlier this year was raising the requirements for cars by 2% and for trucks and SUVs by 4% every year between 2027 and 2032. Tesla actually wants a 6% raise for cars and 8% for trucks and SUVs saying it would best conserve energy and address climate change.

欢迎来到Electrified，我是主持人Dylan Loomis。今天我们首先要说的是特斯拉再次敦促拜登政府推动更严格的燃油经济规定，他们似乎每隔几周就会这样做。今年早些时候的提议是在2027年至2032年的每年将汽车的要求提高2%，卡车和SUV的要求提高4%。特斯拉实际上希望汽车的要求提高6%，卡车和SUV的要求提高8%，称这将最有效地节约能源和应对气候变化。

The current proposal, not Teslas, would result in average fuel efficiency fleet wide of 58 miles per gallon by 2032. And as you might imagine, basically every other automaker is at the same time blasting the proposed regulations. A group representing GM Toyota VWN nearly all others is arguing that the plan would boost the average vehicle price by $3,000 in 2032 due to the penalties automakers would face for not being in compliance. They argued the figure exceeds reason and will increase cost to the American consumer with absolutely no environmental or fuel savings benefits.

按照目前的建议，而不是特斯拉的建议，到2032年，整个车队的平均燃油效率将为每加仑58英里。可以想象，几乎所有其他汽车制造商都在抨击这项提议。代表通用、丰田和大众尼乐等几乎所有其他汽车制造商的一个团体认为，该计划将导致2032年平均车辆价格增加3000美元，因为汽车制造商将面临不符合规定的罚款。他们认为这个数字超出了合理范围，并且没有给美国消费者带来环境或燃料节省的益处，反而增加了成本。

So this group is pushing to decrease the fuel economy standards for trucks from the current 4% down to 2% Tesla wants it to go up to 8%. Listen to this, the group noted 83% of vehicles produced by Ford, GM and Stellantis are actually trucks. NHTSA said the rule is focused on saving Americans money at the pumps and strengthening American energy independence. They estimated the combined benefits of this proposal exceed the costs by more than $18 billion. The auto alliance said automakers would face more than $14 billion in non-compliance penalties between 2027 and 2032. Separately, automakers have chimed in estimating the cost, GM around $6.5 billion, Stellantis 3 and Ford $1 billion. VW chimed in saying NHTSA's proposal is arbitrary, capricious, and an abuse of the agency's discretion to set standards that are not feasible.

所以这个组织正努力将卡车的燃油经济标准从当前的4%降低到2%，而特斯拉希望将其提高到8%。听听这个，该组织指出，福特、通用和斯泰澜蒂斯生产的车辆中有83%实际上是卡车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）表示，这项规定旨在节约美国人的加油费并增强美国的能源独立性。他们估计，该提案的综合效益超过成本180亿美元。汽车联盟表示，汽车制造商在2027年至2032年间将面临超过140亿美元的不合规处罚。另外，汽车制造商们也纷纷估计了成本，通用汽车约为65亿美元，斯泰澜蒂斯则为30亿美元，福特为10亿美元。大众表示，NHTSA的提案是武断、随意的，并且滥用了机构设置不可行标准的自由裁量权。

Sadly, I'm not an engineer so I can't comment on the feasibility of these proposals. I don't know if they're actually that impossible to hit like Legacy Auto is saying, or they're just trying to argue to get things down because they don't want to try that hard. Even if Tesla does not get its way, which at this point does seem unlikely, this is still yet another hurdle for Legacy OEMs in the coming years.

可悲的是，我不是一名工程师，所以无法就这些建议的可行性发表评论。我不知道它们是否真的像传统汽车行业所说的那样无法实现，或者他们只是在争论，因为他们不想那么努力去尝试。即使特斯拉不能按照自己的方式行事，目前看来似乎不太可能，这仍然是未来几年中传统汽车制造商面临的又一个障碍。

CarWow did a lengthy review comparing the new Tesla Model 3 to the BMW i4, the Hyundai Ionic 6, and the Mercedes EQE. The simple takeaway? But the best electric slu on sale is the Tesla Model 3. The old model was still at the top of the game and this new version is even better. I'll have the full review linked below. And we have a similar story from AutoTrader. I think this is a really nice improvement on the previous generation Model 3. The refinement is excellent. I love the suspension. I love the quietness. I think it looks better than it did before. A bit more premium. And as a result, it's more desirable than ever.

CarWow进行了一篇对比新款特斯拉Model 3与宝马i4、现代Ionic 6和奔驰EQE的详细评测。简单地说，但目前市售最好的电动轿车还是特斯拉Model 3。旧车型已经处于行业顶尖水准，而这款新车型更加出色。我将在下方提供完整的评测链接。同时，AutoTrader也有类似的报道。我认为这是对上一代Model 3的很好改进。它的精细度非常好，我喜欢它的悬挂系统，喜欢它的安静性。我认为它比以前看起来更好，稍微高级一些。因此，比以往更具吸引力。

I'd say those reviews are coming at a pretty good time as Tesla Europe just posted. The upgraded Model 3 is now available for order in the UK and Ireland. Here's a look at the updated UK configurator, new Model 3 starting at 39.9,000 quid, or roughly 48,000 USD. But this price for the UK is roughly in line with what the prior Model 3 was priced at. And I'm expecting something similar for the new Model 3 in the United States in Q1 around where it is now. Estimated deliveries for the UK, January to February next year. And don't forget the new wheels, Photon or Nova. BMW is now off the sidelines and in the game, choosing to officially adopt the next.

我会说这些评论来得正好，因为特斯拉欧洲刚刚发布了消息。升级版Model 3现在可在英国和爱尔兰预订。快来看看更新的英国选配器，新款Model 3起价39.9万英镑，大约48,000美元。但这个价格与之前的Model 3价格大致相当。我预计美国新款Model 3在第一季度的价格也会类似，大致与现在相当。预计英国交付时间在明年1月至2月。别忘了还有新款轮毂，Photon或Nova。宝马现已加入比赛，选择正式采用下一款。

I'm feeling pretty good today. I did post this about 5 minutes earlier than Sawyer over on X. BMW, Mini and Rolls Royce vehicles in the US and Canada will get access to the Supercharger network starting in 2025. These companies will be working with Tesla so that the customers can find the Superchargers in their cars display and in the brand's respective apps. The one difference I've spotted with this deal, BMW's current CCS vehicles won't be using the Supercharger network until 2025 with an adapter when a lot of these other announcements have them having access sometime in 2024 with an adapter.

今天我感觉非常好。我之前比Sawyer在X上提前了大约5分钟发布了这个消息。从2025年开始，美国和加拿大的宝马、Mini和劳斯莱斯车辆将能够使用超级充电网络。这些公司将与特斯拉合作，使得客户可以在他们的车显示屏和品牌的应用程序中找到超级充电站。这项交易中我注意到一个不同之处，即宝马的现有CCS车辆将需要使用适配器才能在2025年之后才能使用超级充电网络，而其他很多公司则可能在2024年使用适配器后就能获得使用权限。

BMW did say it'll adopt the NACS natively come 2025. Here's the updated list, the remaining holdouts, VW, Stellantis, Lucid, Toyota, Subaru, and Mazda. There are a few other ones like Ferrari's but these are the main players. On X, Tesla posted a 5 minute video of an FSD demo in Austin. This was on 11.4.7 and they disabled the hands on the wheel requirement but this is not rolling out to customer vehicles. This was just for this demo. Overall, it was a pretty uneventful drive. As you may have just seen though, some people were complaining that it broke the law changing lanes in an intersection which they were saying is illegal in Texas. Doing a bit of digging though, it looks like changing lanes through an intersection in most United States is actually legal. It's just a misinterpretation of this one rule.

宝马表示将在2025年采用NACS。以下是更新的列表，尚未采用NACS的有大众、斯泰兰蒂斯、露骑士、丰田、斯巴鲁和马自达。还有一些其他的，比如法拉利等，但这些是主要的参与者。在X上，特斯拉发布了一个5分钟的全自动驾驶示范视频，地点为奥斯汀。这是基于11.4.7版本，并且他们取消了对方向盘的操作要求，但这不会应用于客户车辆，仅仅是为了这次演示。总体而言，这次驾驶并没有什么特别的事件发生。但正如你刚才可能看到的，有些人抱怨特斯拉在一个十字路口变换车道时违法了，声称在德克萨斯州这是不合法的。然而经过一些调查，看起来在美国大多数州，通过十字路口改变车道实际上是合法的，这只是对这一规则的误解。

It's true, most people in my circle that I talk to still have no idea that this technology exists so hopefully Tesla continues to do more videos like this. This one was more funny than anything, Thailand's Prime Minister started driving his wife's car to and from work which is a Tesla because he wants to win the heart of Tesla as he meets with the company next month. As Prime Minister, he was allocated a Mercedes-Benz S-Class. The government is planning to promote Thailand as an EV hub in Southeast Asia, adding that the topic will be part of the agenda during his trip to Beijing. Speaking of China, the governor of Nuevo Leon is set to visit Giga Shanghai tomorrow, October 18th with a delegation from Nuevo Leon. Given that he's already visited Berlin, Fremont and Giga Austin, this is a logical next step. He's also set to meet with a supplier, JL Mag, a supplier of rare earth permanent magnet materials. Given the expected scale of Giga Mexico, it's pretty obvious Giga Shanghai is the factory that he needs to see.

没错，我和我交谈的大多数人仍然不知道这项技术的存在，希望特斯拉能继续制作更多这样的视频。这个视频更多的是有趣，泰国的总理开始开他妻子的特斯拉车上下班，因为他希望在下个月与特斯拉会面时能赢得特斯拉的青睐。作为总理，他本来有一辆梅赛德斯-奔驰S级座驾。政府计划将泰国打造成东南亚的电动汽车中心，并表示这个话题将是他赴北京访问期间议程的一部分。说到中国，新莱昂州州长计划于明天10月18日与新莱昂州代表团一同访问上海超级工厂。考虑到他已经访问过柏林、弗里蒙特和奥斯汀的超级工厂，这是一个合乎逻辑的下一步。他还将会见一家稀土永磁材料供应商JL Mag。考虑到超级工厂墨西哥项目的预期规模，很明显上海超级工厂是他需要亲自考察的工厂。

We got the weekly Tesla China insurance data, 7,500. Plugging that data into the table, if you wanted to compare it to week two of quarter three, that number was 10,000. Thus far through the first two weeks in quarter four, we sit at 8,500, 4,700 unit short of where we were in quarter three. As we heard from Wuwa last week, most of the new Model 3s being built in Shanghai right now are still for export, why they're not delivering more in the home market. I'm not positive because we did hear that they got the M-I-I-T approval. It may just be an allocation decision they made weeks ago, knowing that they were going to have to wait for that approval. We also have to keep in mind the slight refresh of the Model Y, so we should be expecting lower numbers right now.

我们拿到了特斯拉中国的每周保险数据，为7,500。将这些数据放入表格中，如果你想将其与第三季度第二周进行比较，那个数字是10,000。到目前为止，在第四季度的前两周，我们的数据是8,500，比第三季度少了4,700辆。正如我们上周从吴哇那里听到的，目前上海建造的大部分新Model 3仍然是为出口而建造的，这就是为什么他们没有在国内市场交付更多车辆的原因。我不确定，因为我们听说他们已经获得了国家市场监督管理总局的批准。这可能只是他们几周前做出的一项配置决策，知道他们将不得不等待批准。我们还必须记住Model Y的小改款，所以现在我们应该预计数字会较低。

However, we've been talking about a higher number of ships going from Giga Shanghai to the European market that should be arriving in the next few weeks delivered in Q4. Tesla, now that EVs are scaling and he's got that machine in space in place, so to speak, we have now the autonomous side, and I think he's really focused on that. So yes, I think it has his attention, he knows and believes, I think, that they're close to the finish line with this latest software upgrade, so much so that they're now hiring ride-hail experts in different cities around the country. That is going to be a game changer, and we don't think he's lost any focus.

然而，我们一直在讨论从吉卡上海到欧洲市场出货量更高的船只，预计将在未来几周内在第四季度交付。特斯拉现在大规模生产电动汽车，而且他在太空中有那台机器的存在，所以说，我们现在有了自动驾驶的方面，我认为他真的很专注于这个。所以是的，我认为他关注这个问题，他知道并相信，我认为他们离最新软件升级的完成线很近，以至于他们现在在全国各地招聘打车专家。这将是一个变革游戏规则的举措，我们认为他并没有失去任何注意力。

Now, what do all of these people have in common? All of this brain power right here has publicly taken and or endorsed AG1, the sponsor of this video. Two big disclaimers, one, never ever do something just because somebody else is doing it, and two, whether it's due to greed in the food industry, the use of pesticides over the years, degrading soil quality, chemicals now in our atmosphere and the rain, it's just harder to get the nutrients that we need.

现在，所有这些人有什么共同点呢？在这里的所有智慧都公开地接受了或支持了AG1，即这个视频的赞助商。有两个重要的声明：第一，永远不要仅仅因为别人在做某事而去做；第二，无论是由于食品行业的贪婪、多年来使用农药、土壤质量的恶化、化学物质现在存在于我们的大气和雨水中，获取我们所需的营养变得更加困难。

Even if you don't plan to take AG1, I'd encourage you to head over to their website and check out some of these vitamins, minerals and probiotics, of which there are 75 in every serving, to figure out if your diet right now is containing enough of the fuel that our bodies need.

即使你没有打算服用AG1，我还是鼓励你前往他们的网站，了解一些这些维生素、矿物质和益生菌，每份中包含75种成分，以确定你当前的饮食是否含有足够滋养身体所需的燃料。

Two things not enough people talk about with AG1, one, they're trying to do some good, they have partnered with No Kid Hungry, and they also put together impact reports which you can go view for yourself. I'll briefly show you right now, this is not some marketing fluff, this is a very comprehensive in-depth document, you can go check out how many companies are taking the time to put together reports like this. Oh and one name I purposely left out at the beginning, Peter Atia, is also on the Scientific Advisory Council, not bad. So if you'd like to check it out to support your health and the channel, the link will be in the description below, you can get five travel packs in a one-year supply of vitamin D3K24 free. Enjoy.

关于AG1，很少有人谈及的两个方面：第一，他们试图做一些善事，他们与No Kid Hungry合作，并且还提供了影响报告，你可以自己去查看。我现在简要地给你展示一下，这不是一些市场宣传，这是一份非常全面深入的文件，你可以去看看还有多少公司会花时间编写这样的报告。哦，还有一个名字我故意在一开始没提到，Peter Atia也在科学顾问委员会中，不错吧。所以，如果你想要了解并支持你的健康以及这个频道，链接将在下面的描述中，你可以获得五个旅行装和一年的维生素D3K24免费供应。尽情享受吧。

Not a Tesla app is reporting some Canadian users have spotted in the latest Tesla app version, Tesla is now adding destination chargers in addition to the superchargers and new controls to filter by what you're looking for. Of course you can filter by distance, power, and availability, but now they're taking it further, adding amenities like restrooms, restaurants, shopping, Wi-Fi, lodging, cafes, and those that are open 24 hours. I believe over in Europe, correct me if I'm wrong, that Tesla already includes third-party fast charging locations right in the mobile app, so maybe they bring something like that to Canada and the United States eventually.

一款名为Not a Tesla的应用报告称，一些加拿大用户在最新的特斯拉应用版本中发现了一些新的功能。特斯拉现在除了超级充电站外，还增加了目的地充电器，并新增了根据用户需求的筛选功能。当然，你可以根据距离、功率和可用性进行筛选，但现在他们的功能更强大了，还添加了一些设施，如洗手间、餐厅、购物、Wi-Fi、住宿、咖啡馆，以及24小时营业的场所。我相信在欧洲，如果我没记错的话，特斯拉在移动应用中已经包括了第三方快速充电站的位置，也许他们最终会将类似的功能引入到加拿大和美国。

We had a recall for 54.6,000 Model X vehicles between 2021 and 2023, but Tesla has already issued an OTA update free of charge to fix the issue. The problem was the vehicle controller was likely to fail to detect low brake fluid and not display a warning light.

我们在2021年至2023年间对54.6万辆Model X车型进行了召回，但特斯拉已经免费发布了一次OTA更新来修复这个问题。问题是车辆控制器可能无法检测到制动液位过低，并且没有显示警告灯。

We got Lucid's Q3 production and delivery figures, produced 1550, an additional 700 RN transit to Saudi Arabia for final assembly there, and they delivered 1457. Here's some context for those numbers. As you can see, all three quarters this year, they've delivered just over 1400 vehicles. However, the production in quarter three is down pretty significantly from quarter two and quarter one. On May 5th, 2022, Lucid was guiding for 2022 production of between 12 and 14,000 vehicles. Well, they're probably not going to hit that number in 2023. As year to date, they're only just over 6000 produced. As of August this year, Lucid was guiding for 10,000 vehicles produced. Another figure they're not likely to hit this year, given their first 3 quarter production. For the last year or so, Lucid has been saying they've had between 25 and 35,000 reservations, so based on these numbers, unless there are supply chain challenges which is possible, these numbers then become a bit problematic, implying that maybe they're struggling to convert those reservations to actual orders. I'd love to see Lucid make it, but looking at the last five quarters, they've basically been stuck at the same delivery figure, which of course is not a great sign for such a young company that just started deliveries quarter four of 2021. We'll see if the cheapest Lucid Air Pure that's now available helps these figures at all in quarter four.

我们获得了卢西德（Lucid）第三季度的生产和交付数据，生产了1550辆车，另外还有700辆在运往沙特阿拉伯进行最终装配，并交付了1457辆。以下是这些数字的背景信息。从今年的三个季度来看，他们每个季度交付的车辆数量都稍微超过了1400辆。然而，第三季度的生产量从第二季度和第一季度相比大幅下降。2022年5月5日，卢西德预测2022年的产量在12,000至14,000辆之间。然而，他们可能无法在2023年达到这个数字，因为到目前为止，他们今年仅生产了6000多辆。今年8月，卢西德预测生产10,000辆车，考虑到他们前三个季度的生产情况，这个数字他们今年也很难达到。在过去的一年左右，卢西德一直表示他们有25,000至35,000个预订订单，所以根据这些数字来看，除非存在供应链挑战（这是可能的），否则这些数字可能有些问题，暗示他们可能在将这些预订转化为实际订单方面遇到困难。我希望卢西德能成功，但是从最近的五个季度来看，他们的交付数量基本上停滞不前，这对于一个刚在2021年第四季度开始交付的年轻公司来说，当然不是一个好的迹象。我们将看到现在可用的最便宜的卢西德纯电动轿车（Lucid Air Pure）是否会对第四季度的这些数字产生任何影响。

We talked a fair amount yesterday about Bill Ford and him chiming in on the UAW situation. Now Sean Fane responds. He said Bill Ford knows exactly how to settle the strike instead of threatening to close the Rouge. He should call up Farley, tell him to stop playing games and get a deal done or we'll close the Rouge for him. It's not the UAW and Ford against foreign automakers, it's auto workers everywhere against corporate greed. If Ford wants to be the all American auto company, they can pay all American wages and benefits. Workers that Tesla, Toyota, Honda and others are not the enemy, they're the UAW members of the future. I highly, highly doubt that at least for Tesla.

昨天我们谈了很多关于比尔·福特以及他对美国汽车工人联合会（UAW）局势的发言。现在肖恩·费恩作出回应。他说比尔·福特清楚如何解决罢工问题，而不是威胁要关闭罗格工厂。他应该找到法利，并告诉他别再耍花招，尽快达成协议，否则我们将代替他们关闭罗格工厂。这不是UAW和福特与外国汽车制造商对抗，而是汽车工人们与企业贪婪的对抗。如果福特想成为真正的美国汽车公司，他们应该支付符合美国标准的工资和福利。特斯拉、丰田、本田等公司的工人不是敌人，而是未来的UAW成员。至少对于特斯拉而言，我非常非常怀疑。

From CNBC, GM said it's delaying production of all electric trucks at a Michigan plant by at least one year to better manage capital investments and implement improvements in an effort to make new EVs more profitable. GM now plans to begin construction of its next gen EVs at the Orion plant in Detroit in late 2025 instead of next year.

通用汽车称，为更好地管理资本投资并推动新一代电动车的盈利能力，计划将在密歇根州的一家工厂生产的所有电动卡车的生产推迟至少一年，并实施改进措施。通用汽车现计划在底特律的奥瑞恩工厂于2025年底开始建设其下一代电动车，而非明年。

Right now, that factory makes Chevy Bolt EVs. Notice how they add to better manage capital investment while aligning with evolving EV demand, which clearly signals a decline in that demand. They said we've identified engineering improvements that we will implement to increase the profitability of our products. According to a GM spokesman that says nothing to do with the UAW strike. To be clear, this doesn't mean that the Silverado and the Sierra aren't going into production at all until 2025. Just at that one plant, they said those two vehicles will be produced at factory zero in Detroit. We just talked about initial production of the Silverado and the Sierra is scheduled to begin production next year.

现在，那家工厂正在生产雪弗兰Bolt EV。注意到他们加强对资本投资的管理，与不断发展的电动汽车需求相适应，这明显标志着对该需求的下降。他们表示，我们已经确定了工程改进措施，将实施以增加我们产品的盈利能力。根据一位通用汽车发言人的说法，这与UAW罢工无关。明确的是，这并不意味着Silverado和Sierra直到2025年都不会开始生产。只是在那家工厂，那两款车将在底特律的工厂零进行生产。我们刚刚谈到Silverado和Sierra的初期生产计划将在明年开始。

Roughly 1000 hourly workers at Orion will have the option to transfer to other Michigan facilities until the retooling at Orion assembly is done. Naturally, the question becomes are the Silverados being produced now going to be made without these engineering improvements that are supposed to lead to more profitability? Because that's how this makes it sound.

在奥瑞恩工厂，大约有1000名时薪工人将有机会在奥瑞恩装配完工之前转移到密歇根其他设施。自然而然的问题是，目前生产的Silverado车型是否会没有那些本应带来更多利润的工程改进呢？因为文章给人的印象是这样的。

What have we been saying all year? We should expect a lot of legacy OEMs to start pulling back on their EV investments, whether it's the UAW strikes, falling demand, higher interest rates, realizing making EVs at scale is a difficult task. More of this is coming.

我们一直在说些什么呢？我们应该预计许多传统汽车制造公司会开始减少他们在电动汽车投资方面的投入，不论是由于UAW罢工、需求下降、利率上升，还是认识到大规模生产电动汽车是一项艰巨的任务。这样的情况将会更多出现。

Drive Tesla Canada reported that Rivian was toying with the idea of launching a 1000 horsepower variance in 2024 for the R1T and R1S. These would be labeled a cent, but you need to know this is coming from a Rivian forum from one user who said he talked to a solid source. Take it for what you will. As it stands now, the highest horsepower Rivian is up at 835.

Drive Tesla Canada报道称，Rivian正在考虑在2024年推出一款拥有1000马力的R1T和R1S变种车型。这些车型将被称为"cent"，但你需要知道这个消息来自Rivian论坛上的一个用户，他声称与可靠消息源交谈过。关于这个消息，你可以根据自己的判断来看待。目前，Rivian最高马力车型的输出功率为835马力。

Rivian did just release a new software update making certain features more accessible and adding some new ones. They've added live motor temperatures and they've enhanced the towing experience to include a bed camera for the R1C. They also made the drive controls easier to access. In the new trailers tab, you can now save three different trailer profiles based on what you're towing and it can better tell you how it's going to impact the range.

Rivian刚刚发布了一个新的软件更新，使某些功能更易于操作，并增加了一些新功能。他们添加了实时电机温度，并增强了R1C的拖车体验，增加了床上的摄像头。他们还让驾驶控制更易于访问。在新的拖车选项卡中，您现在可以保存三个根据您拖拉物品的不同拖车配置文件，并更好地告诉您它将如何影响续航里程。

Tomorrow, Wednesday is Tesla's Q3 earnings. No video from me. I like to sit back, take it all in, think about it, and then I'll get back to everybody on Thursday. One of the biggest questions is going to be how far was Tesla able to drive down its cost of good sold and how does that compare with all of the price reductions.

明天，周三是特斯拉的第三季度盈利报告。不会有我发布的视频。我喜欢坐下来，静静聚焦这个报告，思考一番，然后周四再给大家回复。其中一个最重要的问题是特斯拉能否降低销售成本，以及这与所有价格下调相比如何。

I believe it's only 10-20% of Tesla's lithium deals that are done on the spot market. Most of them are done based on multi-year contracts. However, whether it shows up in Q4 or Q3 next year, the fall in lithium prices over the last year is obviously going to help Tesla drive down its cost of good sold. Right now, for the first time, it's fallen below the prior 2023 lows that was back in April.

我相信特斯拉的锂电池交易中只有10-20%是在现货市场完成的。大部分交易都基于多年合同进行。然而，无论是在明年第四季度还是第三季度，过去一年中锂价格的下降显然将帮助特斯拉降低其销货成本。目前，锂价格已经首次下跌到了去年4月份之前的2023年新低。

A few numbers to keep in mind tomorrow, Wall Street's expectations for Tesla's auto gross margin, X credits 17.8%. Wall Street's adjusted EPS expectations 75 cents per share. Wall Street's fourth quarter delivery expectation 492,000. Here's the deal though. If Tesla reconfirms its guidance of 1.8 million vehicles for the year, that would imply 476,000 for quarter four based on what they've done so far this year, so that would lead to more downward revisions from Wall Street in the next few weeks.

明天要记住几个数字：华尔街对特斯拉汽车毛利率的期望值为17.8%。华尔街对调整后的每股收益的预期为75美分。华尔街对第四季度交付量的期望为49.2万辆。但是有一个问题。如果特斯拉重新确认年度180万辆车的指导目标，那将意味着基于他们今年迄今为止的表现，第四季度将达到47.6万辆，这将导致华尔街在接下来几周内进一步下调预期。

One thing I'll have an eye on, Tesla's energy margins. It was 18.4% in Q2, up from about 11% in Q1. So I want to see if they can keep that momentum going as the megapack ramps in Lathrop. Some Wall Street analysts do think that Tesla's gross margins will bottom in this quarter, Q3, which of course would be a good thing, but the truth is, nobody knows for sure the macro is a complicated space.

我会密切关注特斯拉的能源利润率。第二季度的利润率为18.4%，较第一季度的约11%有所提高。因此，我想看看他们是否能够在Lathrop大规模包装项目推进中保持这种势头。一些华尔街分析师确实认为特斯拉的毛利率将在本季度Q3触底，这当然是好事，但事实上，没有人能确定宏观环境是一个复杂的领域。

I'd imagine Wall Street's pretty interested in if Tesla is making any progress on these FSD licensing agreements of which they said they had at least one. Personally though, I wouldn't expect anything like this to be announced until 2024 at the very earliest. Tesla has started to hint that there may be some changes to the IRA tax credits for their vehicles come 2024, so they know a little bit more than they're leading on, but the truth is, the government doesn't even know, the treasury doesn't even know, they're still listening to feedback and making changes when it comes to certain requirements. Point being, I don't think we get any actual clarity on this until the end of this year at the earliest.

我想，华尔街应该对特斯拉在全自动驾驶许可协议方面的进展非常感兴趣，特斯拉表示他们至少有一个这样的协议。但就个人而言，我不认为在2024年之前会公布类似的消息。特斯拉已经开始暗示，到2024年，他们的车辆可能会有一些关于个人退休账户税收抵免的变化，所以他们比表面上展示的更清楚一些，但事实是，连政府都不知道，财政部也不知道，他们仍在听取反馈并对某些要求进行调整。重点是，我认为在最早的明年底之前，我们不会得到任何真实的明确答案。

For what it's worth, Tesla's auto gross margin X credits was 18.1% in Q2, so Wall Street's only expecting about a 30-bips decrease quarter over quarter.

不过值得一提的是，特斯拉在第二季度的汽车毛利率（不包括补贴）为18.1%，所以华尔街只预计季度内的毛利率会下降大约30基点。

As most of you guys know, I really just sit back and enjoy these days learning more about the company no matter what the numbers are because in the long run it means basically nothing.

众所周知，我实际上只是坐下来享受这些日子，不管数字是什么，因为从长远来看，它基本上什么都不代表。

Think about it, what can you tell me from any Tesla earnings call in 2021? Without googling it, could you tell me anything offhand?

想一想，2021年的任何一次特斯拉财报电话会议中，你能告诉我什么？在没有通过谷歌搜索的情况下，你能脱口而出什么信息吗？

Don't forget, check out AG1 linked below, thank you in advance if you do.

不要忘记，查看下方提供的AG1链接，如果你确实查看了的话，非常感谢你。

Hope you guys have a wonderful day, enjoy the day tomorrow, you can find me on X linked below, please like the video if you did, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

希望你们度过美好的一天，明天也能尽情享受，你可以在下方链接中找到我，请如果你喜欢这个视频的话，点个赞，非常感谢所有我的Patreon支持者。