Tesla Earnings Preview, GM Delays EV Plans, BMW Adopts NACS

Hey everybody Rob Mauer here and today we're going to be doing a little bit of previewing for Tesla's Q3 earnings call tomorrow.

大家好，我是Rob Mauer。今天我们将对特斯拉明天的第三季度财报电话会议进行一些预测。

Then we did actually have a handful of other interesting news so we'll hit that first and quickly start off with stock here. Tesla up 4.0% on the day to day closing at $254.92. Actually a nice outperformance with the NASDAQ closing down a quarter percent but of course not super meaningful as we had an earnings tomorrow which will have a much greater impact.

然后我们确实有一些其他有趣的消息，我们首先会快速介绍一下股票情况。特斯拉当天上涨4.0%，收盘价为254.92美元。实际上，这是一个不错的表现，因为纳斯达克指数当天下跌了百分之零点二五，当然这并没有太大意义，因为明天我们将有一份收益报告，这将对股价产生更大的影响。

So we'll go through the estimates and preview a little bit here later on but first want to touch on a couple pieces of news. One big one, BMW has announced that they are going to be adopting the North American charging standard or NACS to allow the vehicles access to the supercharger network in the US and Canada in early 2025. So yet another automaker jumping on board I think we've just still got a couple major holdouts from the likes of Volkswagen and Toyota but the dominoes continue to fall. A couple of big ones here with BMW and Hyundai Kia over the last week or so. So good to see that, interestingly they did not mention like we have heard from other automakers, an adapter. So a lot of other automakers have mentioned an adapter for NACS prior to the adoption or the integration rather of NACS into their vehicles but through this press release no mention of that from BMW. So we'll see, you know they might have just left that out but kind of an interesting difference between the announcements.

所以我们之后会浏览一下估计，并预览一下这里的一点内容，但首先我们想谈一下一些新闻。一个大的新闻是，宝马宣布他们将在2025年初采用北美充电标准（NACS），以便让他们的车辆能够访问美国和加拿大的超级充电站网络。所以又一个汽车制造商加入了，我认为我们只有大众和丰田这样的一些重要的持观望态度的制造商，但多米诺骨牌继续倒下。在过去一周左右，宝马和现代起亚有几个大的例子。所以很高兴看到这个，有趣的是，他们没有像其他汽车制造商那样提及适配器。因此，许多其他汽车制造商在采用或整合NACS之前都提到了适配器，但在这份新闻稿中，宝马并未提及。所以我们会看到，他们可能只是遗漏了这一点，但这是一个有趣的公告之间的不同之处。

But of course for BMW this will cover the BMW brands as well as the mini and interestingly enough the Rolls Royce brand as well. I think they just announced a or I don't know announced or started delivering the new 400,000-ish dollar EV so maybe some people will happen across those at superchargers in a couple of years.

当然，对于宝马来说，这将涵盖宝马品牌以及迷你品牌，有趣的是，还包括劳斯莱斯品牌。我记得他们刚刚宣布了一款售价约40万美元的新电动汽车，也许在几年后，一些人会在超级充电站上看到它们。

All right then the other interesting one is GM today confirmed that they will be re-timing the conversion of their Orion assembly plant for EV truck production to late 2025.

好的，那么另一个有趣的消息是，通用汽车今天确认他们将推迟奥利昂组装厂转型为电动卡车生产的计划，推迟至2025年末。

This was scheduled originally to happen next year. They say that this is to better manage capital investment while aligning with evolving EV demand. In addition they say that they have identified engineering improvements that they'll implement to increase the profitability of their products.

原计划是在明年进行。他们表示这是为了更好地管理资本投资，同时与不断发展的电动汽车需求保持一致。此外，他们表示已经确定了一些工程改进措施，将实施这些措施来提高产品的盈利能力。

So what did we talk about a couple of weeks ago? How it's starting to get to a period of time where it's difficult for these automakers to actually make these investments. And a couple weeks later here we sit with GM delaying a significant investment for EV production in the truck part of their business. They did to be fair say that they're going to produce the Chevy Silverado EV, the GMC Sierra EV that were supposed to be produced at the Orion facility at their factory zero in Detroit. But presumably at much lower volumes than what they had initially intended or at least initially said that they intended to do at the Orion assembly plant.

那么，我们几个星期之前谈了些什么呢？我们讨论的是，对于这些汽车制造商来说，现在正逐渐进入一个难以进行这些投资的时期。几周后的现在，通用汽车却推迟了在卡车部门进行电动车生产的重大投资。他们确实表示将生产雪佛兰Silverado EV和GMC Sierra EV，原计划在底特律的工厂零号奥里昂设施进行生产。但可想而知，他们可能只会以远低于最初计划的产量进行生产，或者至少跟最初所声称的在奥里昂总装厂的计划有所不同。

So again very interesting announcement here from GM. This follows just yesterday we talked about Ford reducing their shift count on the Ford F-150 Lightning. There seems to just continue to be a little bit of hesitancy right now during this period as demand for vehicles, demand for EVs, especially with the pressure that Tesla is putting on in the segments that Tesla occupies, but also soon to be with the Cybertruck.

通用汽车再次发布了一个非常有意思的公告。就在昨天，我们谈到了福特公司正在减少他们的福特F-150 Lightning的生产班次。在这个时期，对于汽车的需求以及对电动汽车的需求似乎仍然存在一些犹豫，特别是在特斯拉在其经营范围内施加了压力的情况下，还有不久之后即将推出的Cybertruck。

It's just becoming a more difficult proposition for these companies to make these multi-billion dollar investments that they really need to be making right now. Otherwise we're going to get to a point where it's too late, they're just too far behind and other companies such as Tesla primarily take that volume and once that's gone it's much more difficult to get back than it would be to maintain it.

对于这些公司来说，要进行他们现在真正需要的数十亿美元的投资变得越来越困难。否则，我们将会达到一个点，那时为时已晚，他们已经落后太多，而像特斯拉这样的公司主要会取走市场份额。一旦市场份额丧失，重新获得将比维持更加困难。

So again it's a fascinating period of time right now and I think an announcement like this is probably not the last type of decision change that we'll see and I think no real surprise that it's coming from General Motors. They like to rely a lot on their announcements but as it needs to come to fruition I don't know that we're really going to see a whole lot of that. So we'll continue to keep an eye on that but pretty interesting update from GM to debt.

所以现在是一个非常有趣的时期，我认为这样的公告可能不会是我们看到的最后一次决策变化，而且我觉得这并不是很令人惊讶，这个公告是由通用汽车发布的。他们喜欢依靠他们的公告，但我不确定我们是否真的会看到很多实质性的行动。所以我们将继续关注这个问题，但通用汽车对债务的最新更新相当有趣。

Alright next just a quick one, there was a recall announced today for Model X vehicles between 2021 and 2023, about 55,000 vehicles. This isn't over the air update so really not worth talking too much about is for a brake fluid indicator but Tesla is fixing this with a software update. So nothing too major but of course always generate setlines and then we did also get updated China insured vehicle numbers overnight.

好的，接下来是一个简短的消息，今天宣布了一起回收行动，涉及2021年至2023年间的Model X车辆，大约有55,000辆车。 这并不是通过空中更新进行的，所以没必要过多谈论，只是一个刹车液指示器的问题，但特斯拉会通过软件更新进行修复。所以并不是什么大事，当然也会引起一些关注。另外我们也得到了最新的中国保险车辆数量更新。

So for the week of October 9th through the 15th 7500 vehicles insured in China. So a little bit of a bounce back obviously from the golden week first week of October where there was you know holiday in China things like that impacting these numbers and of course the transition in Q4 but we'll likely continue to see these numbers grow in the coming weeks.

所以在10月9日至15日的一周内，中国有7500辆车保险。很显然，这是对10月初黄金周的回弹，当时中国有一些节假日等因素对这些数字产生了影响，当然还有第四季度的过渡期。但我们很可能在接下来的几周会继续看到这些数字增长。

And then Lucid after a short period of delay here has finally announced their production and delivery numbers for the third quarter. So for the third quarter they produced just over 1500 vehicles plus additional 700 vehicles that are in transit to Saudi Arabia for final assembly. So if you consider those produced maybe about 2200 2300 or so and they also delivered just under 1500 for the same period. So if we look at our production versus delivery tracking chart for them kind of interesting you know we've seen production now fall for basically four straight quarters depending on whether or not you include that 700 vehicles and actual produced vehicles. But then deliveries now kind of stagnating after the peak in Q4 right around 1400 a quarter when you know three or four quarters ago they were producing as many as 3500 vehicles a quarter.

然后，Lucid在短期的延迟之后，终于公布了他们第三季度的生产和交付数据。所以在第三季度，他们生产了1500多辆汽车，还有额外的700辆正在运往沙特阿拉伯进行最终装配。所以如果考虑到这些生产出来的大约2200到2300辆车，他们在同一时期交付了不到1500辆。所以如果我们观察他们的生产与交付追踪图表，有点有趣，你知道我们已经看到了生产连续下降了四个季度，取决于是否包括那700辆实际生产的车辆。但是交付现在在Q4的高峰之后有点停滞不前，大约在每个季度1400左右，而三四个季度前他们每个季度生产多达3500辆汽车。

So they now have about 4500 vehicles in supply if you do the same days of inventory calculation that we do for Tesla or that Tesla post in their earnings report that would put Lucid at 270 days of inventory before you even consider the 700 vehicles in route to Saudi Arabia. So if you include those then it's more like 275 days. That actually held steady quarter over quarter it was about 243 last quarter. So you know I guess I guess it's good but obviously for Lucid you really want to see these delivery numbers picking up and they've again kind of stagnated there. So we'll continue to keep an eye on them but obviously their cost structure is built for much higher levels of deliveries and even that is going to be a challenge economically. So not looking great for Lucid right now.

所以，如果按照我们对特斯拉的库存计算或特斯拉在财报中公布的计算方式，我们可以得知Lucid目前有大约4500辆车辆库存。如果还考虑到运往沙特阿拉伯的700辆车，那就更接近275天的库存。这个数字与上个季度持平，上个季度的库存约为243天。这个情况好像没什么变化，对Lucid来说并不理想。我们会继续观察，但显然他们的成本结构是基于更高交付量的，即使从经济上来说，这也是一个挑战。目前对Lucid来说情况并不乐观。

And then we'll get into the Tesla earnings report so that is going to be aftermarket close tomorrow so we'll do the same thing as normal. Just kind of review the letter as it comes out look at the financials and the updates Tesla's got in there. And then the earnings call will follow about an hour and a half aftermarket close for 30 total time and I'll stream that on the channel as well. So hopefully you'll all join me for that. And then before we even get into the numbers and some of the expectations just a quick reminder you know we always do this to try to understand the business better and understand the trajectory of the business put context around some numbers so that people you know don't just look at a bottom line number and kind of judge the business based on that. Better data holistic understanding for example this quarter something that's important to be aware of last quarter on the other income line that was positively impacted by foreign exchange movements that other income line was positive three hundred and twenty eight million dollars so that's significant and that significantly significantly contributed to the you know earnings per share number that gets reported net income that gets reported. So just stuff like that that's why we you know look at these in detail and try to put context around some of these things. So that being said let's hop into some of my expectations let me flip over to Excel here. Actually take a drink of water to my mouse can dry up. So give me a second.

然后我们将进入特斯拉的财报，这将在明天晚市收盘之后发布，我们会像往常一样进行分析。当财报出来时，我们会仔细审查信中的财务数据和特斯拉所做的更新。然后，一个半小时之后，将会进行财报电话会议，我也会在频道上进行转播。希望大家都能参与其中。还没有进入数字和一些期望之前，我想提醒大家，我们一直这样做是为了更好地了解业务，并理解业务发展的轨迹，为一些数字提供背景信息，以免人们仅仅根据一个底线数字来评判业务。更好的数据和整体理解能为我们提供更多上下文，例如这个季度的重要事项是要了解，上个季度的其他收入项目受到汇率变动的积极影响，该收入项目为正3.28亿美元，这对于报告的每股收益和净利润产生了重要贡献。所以这就是我们会详细研究和提供一些上下文背景的原因。话虽如此，让我们来谈谈我的一些期望，让我切换到Excel。实际上，先喝一口水，我的鼠标有点干了。给我一点时间。

Alright so as you guys can see we already know deliveries from Tesla's earlier release so four and thirty five thousand the analysts consensus actually got it right this time usually that's off a little bit because people don't update their numbers but they have now updated it so it's good to see that.

好的，正如你们所看到的，我们已经知道特斯拉早期发布的交付情况，所以四万三千五百辆。分析师的共识实际上这次说中了，通常情况下他们稍微会有些出错，因为人们没有及时更新他们的数字，但现在他们已经进行了更新，这是一个好事。

Energy storage I'm expecting a bit of an increase here so we'll just kind of go through and look at my numbers look at consensus look at things to kind of keep in mind.

能源储存。我预计这里会有一点增长，所以我们将会简单浏览一下我的数据、共识和需要牢记的事项。

One other point that I want to make before we get into it I guess. Slipping my mind but we'll get to it.

在我们开始之前，我想提醒大家的另一个要点，虽然我忘记了，但我们会解决的。

So just to look at some of the numbers I'm expecting about four and a half gigawatt hours of energy storage analysts are at about three point seven gigawatt hours. I'm a little bit higher because last quarter we actually saw a decline after a pretty significant increase the last couple of quarters. So as we've talked about energy storage deployments the recognition of those rather it can be a little bit lumpy depending on when projects are commissioned or when they're you know turned on in operation. So for this I'm just kind of expecting a little bit of a bounce back back to the trend that we had been seeing we know Tesla's capacity is continuing to grow so we may not see it this quarter it's it's really just a guessing game for all of us there's not great tracking on energy storage yet but I'm kind of expecting that to bounce back analysts kind of expecting it to stagnate could be either one I'm just a little bit higher and then energy generation obviously that'd be for solar I'm at 75 megawatts versus 89 for analysts consensus. So I'm a little bit lower just because we've seen you know not much progress in that over the last couple of quarters high interest rates could be affecting the solar business of course there's seasonality there certainly in Q1 but hopefully we see that continue to bounce back a little bit my expectations that were not super high.

那么，稍微看一下一些数字，我预计能量存储约为4.5千兆瓦时，分析师的预计为约3.7千兆瓦时。我稍微高一点，因为上个季度在经历了连续几个季度的显著增长之后，我们实际上看到了一次下降。所以，正如我们所讨论的，能量存储的部署情况是有些不稳定的，这取决于项目何时投入运营。所以对于这一点，我只是期望能够回到之前的趋势上，我们知道特斯拉的产能仍在增长，所以可能在本季度我们看不到增长，对于我们所有人来说这真的只是一个猜测游戏，能量存储的追踪还不是很好，但我预计会有所反弹，分析师则认为可能会停滞不前，可能两者之一，我只稍微高一些，然后对于太阳能发电部分，我预计为75兆瓦，而分析师的共识为89兆瓦。所以我稍微低一些，因为在过去几个季度中我们没有看到太多进展，高利率可能对太阳能业务产生影响，当然在第一季度也存在季节性因素，但希望能够继续有所回升，尽管我的期望并不是非常高。

Right so as we get into the revenue lines just something to keep in mind for this quarter I think probably the biggest unknown is going to affect these lines and this is you know pretty typical for Tesla. I think the biggest unknown this quarter is average selling price combined with average cost a good sold.

那么，当我们涉及收入来源时，有一些事情需要记住，对于这个季度，我认为最大的未知因素可能会影响到这些收入来源，这在特斯拉是相当典型的。我认为这个季度最大的未知因素是平均销售价格与平均成本的结合。

So as we've been seeing this has been you know declining significantly quarter over quarter for the last few quarters as Tesla's Cup prices. Interestingly list prices this quarter were actually pretty stable however Tesla did offer a lot of inventory discounting. So because we don't really know the mix between people purchasing from inventory people purchasing from the design studio for a new order it makes it very difficult to understand what the mix is going to be between those and therefore what the average selling prices are going to be versus in past quarters you know you can kind of just take a look at Tesla's list prices and see how those changed quarter over quarter.

正如我们一直看到的，过去几个季度，特斯拉的杯价格每个季度都在大幅下降。有趣的是，尽管本季的指导价格相当稳定，但特斯拉确实提供了很多库存折扣。因此，由于我们并不真正知道是有多少人从库存购买，又有多少人从设计工作室下新订单购买，这使得难以理解这两者之间的比例，从而很难预测平均销售价格。而过去几个季度，你可以简单地看一下特斯拉的指导价格，并了解其每个季度的变化情况。

This quarter we can't really take a look at that because we have that inventory discounting factor at play. And then of course for the Model S and Model X there were significant price changes in September so that's factored in here but otherwise for 3 and Y it's kind of just you know taking a guess at you as to how big that inventory discounting impact was.

这一季我们不能真正去看这个，因为我们受到了库存折价因素的影响。当然，对于Model S和Model X，在九月份有显著的价格变动，所以这在这里已经考虑进去了，但对于Model 3和Model Y来说，我们只能猜测库存折价的影响有多大。

So all that being said I am showing a decline in average selling prices by about $1,100 which is pretty similar to what we've seen at last quarter a little bit less than we saw heading into this year in Q1 quarter over quarter changes. So I'm just kind of expecting that to continue based off of again as the next decreases in inventory discounts but really really tough I think to get a gauge on that and that's going to really affect everything from this you know very start top line on down.

所以总结一下，我发现平均销售价格下降了大约1,100美元，这与上个季度相当接近，稍微低于我们在今年第一季度看到的季度同比变化。所以我认为这种趋势可能会继续，因为库存折扣的进一步减少，但是要真正确定这一点非常困难，而这将对从最开始的销售额到最终结果的每个方面产生影响。

And then for cost of goods sold we did see a decline last quarter of about $600 per vehicle. I'm showing a little bit more than that this quarter about an $800 per vehicle cost decline. There's going to be a few factors that play there. The biggest factor for me that's causing that decline is 4680s.

然后，对于销售成本，我们确实在上个季度看到了每辆车约600美元的下降。而这个季度，我看到每辆车的成本下降超过了这个金额，大约为800美元。这里会有几个因素起作用。对我来说，导致成本下降最大的因素是新型4680电池。

That's been weighing on this number ever since it started getting bucketed here versus R&D. So it's roughly been a couple hundred million dollars a quarter as Tesla increases production makes costs of goods sold or you know improves the cost efficiencies of 4680s in general. That's going to stop being such a big hit. So we've seen that improve quarter over quarter and I'm kind of expecting that to continue and that's really the biggest driver for me on my average cost of goods sold decline quarter over quarter as we see that you know we saw Tesla announce the 20 million vehicle production number. Sorry 20 million sale production number I would showed really good progress on that.

这个问题自从它的生产与研发相比出现问题以来，一直对这个数字产生了压力。因此，随着特斯拉产量的增加，成本销售额或者说是提高4680电池的成本效益，每个季度大约损失几亿美元。这种情况很快就会停止造成如此严重的损失。因此，我们已经看到它在每个季度都有所改善，而我也相信这种情况会继续下去，这对我来说是成本销售额每个季度下降最大的推动因素，而特斯拉宣布了2000万辆车的生产数量，这显示了真正的良好进展。

So I'm kind of expecting that to drive the cost improvements and then kind of maybe pushing things a little bit in the other direction we did have of course the change over in Model 3 for Highland and we don't necessarily know how impact that's going to be on the cost structure hopefully over time that brings the cost structure down but as that transition happens there's likely going to be some additional costs associated there so that's going to push things in the other direction and again you know it's a little bit of a guessing game as to how those impacts weigh out but because Tesla transitions so quickly I'm kind of expecting that to be rather minimal in terms of the impact this quarter.

所以我有点期待这将推动成本降低，然后可能会对我们之前的型号3进行一些调整，我们不确定这将对成本结构产生什么影响，希望随着时间的推移能够降低成本结构，但在过渡期间可能会有一些额外的成本，所以这将推动成本增加，而且由于特斯拉的转型速度很快，我认为这个季度的影响应该会相当小，对于这些影响如何权衡起来，这有点像猜谜游戏。

So hopefully that'll be the case at any rate again showing about an $800 decline in cost of goods sold. So that kind of takes us into margins and profitability. You can see here I'm actually showing increases in automotive gross margin and we'll talk a little bit more about that here in a second. One of the main drivers of that as we can see if we go back up to automotive sales is regulatory credits. So the regulatory credit sales for Q2 were relatively low as we can see $282 million last quarter versus $521 million in Q1 so that decline pretty significantly I generally just kind of guess you know an average over the last few quarters for Tesla on this on this bucket. So I'm about $325 million there which is you know helping drive profitability a little bit more than last quarter and then one of the really big things here that is increasing my forecast is FSD deferred revenue.

希望情况会是这样，至少在任何情况下都能再次显示出成本减少约800美元的情况。所以这将涉及到利润率和盈利能力。您可以在这里看到，我实际上显示了汽车毛利的增加，我们稍后会再谈一些关于这方面的内容。其中一个主要推动因素就是我们可以看到汽车销售方面的监管信用。所以第二季度的监管信用销售相对较低，我们可以看到上一季度为2.82亿美元，而第一季度为5.21亿美元，所以这一下降相当显著。我一般只是根据特斯拉在过去几个季度的平均数进行估计。因此，我估计为3.25亿美元，比上一季度对盈利能力的贡献更大。而这里一个真正重要的因素是FSD的递延收入，这也增加了我的预测。

So this is a wild card for this quarter as it is for every quarter just a reminder from Tesla's 10Q that they published after the Q2 earnings report. They said that they expect to recognize $747 million of deferred revenue related to FSD and some other items over the next 12 months. So I'm expecting a decent chunk of that to come this quarter. I've got $200 million of FSD deferred revenue in my forecast which is going to boost things like margin and revenue obviously as well.

所以这对于本季度来说是一个不确定因素，就像每个季度都是一样，这是来自特斯拉在Q2盈利报告之后发布的10Q中的提醒。他们表示，他们预计在接下来的12个月内将会确认与全自动驾驶(FSD)和其他项目相关的7.47亿美元的递延收入。因此，我预计本季度会有相当大一部分的收入。我预测全自动驾驶的递延收入为2亿美元，这显然将会提升利润率和收入等方面的表现。

So that's a pretty major impact obviously that's going to have really low cost of goods sold so it boosts revenue without much of an impact on cost which boosts margins. And the reason I have that is because in September Tesla adjusted the design studio where it used to list coming soon for AutoSteer on City Streets and they dropped that coming soon label in association with some of the broader rollouts for FSD 11.4 etc. So because of that I'm expecting them to recognize some deferred revenue. I don't think analyst consensus probably has much of that in there if any. So that's going to be a major factor driving some differences between my forecast on profitability.

所以显然，这将有一个相当重大的影响，会使成本费用非常低，从而提升收入，并且对成本影响不大，从而提高利润率。我之所以这么说，是因为在九月份特斯拉修改了设计工作室，原先它会列出“即将推出”的城市街道自动驾驶功能，但现在把这个标签取消了，并与FSD 11.4等更广泛的发布一起发布。所以基于这个原因，我预计他们将会确认一些延迟收益。我认为分析师共识中可能没有包含这方面的因素。因此，这将是我对收益预测中的一个主要因素导致区别。

So as you can see we kind of skipped over revenue a bit but for total sales I'm at about $24.1 billion versus analysts at about $23.9 billion. If you assume there's no deferred revenue in there and again we don't have the regulatory credit forecast specifically but if we assume that that's not in there then my revenue figure will be roughly the same as theirs. So we'll see on that if that doesn't happen then I would just kind of take that out of my forecast and that would make it a little bit more comparable but we'll see.

所以你可以看到，我们在收入方面有一些省略，但总销售额约为241亿美元，而分析师预测约为239亿美元。如果我们假设其中没有推迟收入，而且我们没有特定的监管信贷预测，但如果我们假设其中没有这笔款项，那么我的收入数字将与他们差不多。所以我们等一下再看看，如果没有发生这种情况，那我可能就会从我的预测中剔除掉这部分款项，这样就会更具可比性，但我们再看吧。

And then just to kind of again sorry I skipped over the revenue lines for energy and services and others but because we talked about them up here.

然后，只是为了再次道歉，我忽略了能源、服务和其他方面的收入线，因为我们在之前已经讨论过它们了。

So energy I have growing a couple hundred million dollars quarter over quarter with that you know additional one gigawatt hour basically I've got a lower average selling price than last quarter because that spiked up a bit so I've got that declining a bit which is why the energy storage growth would be a little bit bigger than the revenue growth but we'll see on that. I'm a little bit higher than consensus but not too much given you know how far above I am on the actual storage deployed and then for services and others yeah services and other I'm at about $200 million increase quarter. over quarter so roughly 10 or 11% which is kind of similar to what we saw last quarter. That growth was a little bit higher than what we had been seeing so Tesla attributed that I think to used vehicle sales and things like that. We'll see if that continues I'm not sure you know how big of a factor the FSD beta one time offering of you know swapping that from vehicle to a new vehicle how that could impact we might see more used vehicle sales because of that this quarter potentially so that's kind of what my thinking was on that line I'm a little bit you know pretty significantly higher than analyst consensus on that one.

我每个季度都有数亿美元的能源增速，再加上一个吉瓦时，基本上销售价格比上个季度要低一些，因此能源储存的增长可能会比收入增长更大一些，但我们还得看情况。相比于一般看法，我的预测略高一些，但也不算太高，考虑到我实际部署的储能项目超出预期的程度，至于服务和其他方面，我这个季度大约增加了2亿美元，大约是上个季度的10%到11%，与我们上个季度的情况相似。这一增长略高于以往的水平，因此特斯拉认为这可能与二手车销售等因素有关。我们还得看看这是否会持续发展，我不确定一次性提供自动驾驶测试版本（FSD beta）将如何影响这方面，我们可能会看到更多二手车销售，因此这就是我对这一线路的思考。与分析师共识相比，我的预测要高出很多。

So you know I mentioned the couple hundred million dollars of difference a lot of that is actually from these other lines my automotive sales line is pretty significantly lower than analyst consensus. All right so anyway getting back into profit we talked a little bit about automotive gross profit that yields about a 20% automotive gross margin would actually be an improvement quarter over quarter even excluding credits however that does include the regulatory or sorry the deferred revenue if you exclude that it's actually pretty close to equal quarter over quarter. So the energy margins I do have declining a little bit we saw those increase significantly last quarter to 18.4% from 11% in Q1 so some might ask why I'm showing a decline here just because of the volatility really that we have seen you can see in Q4 that went from 12% to 11% I don't think many people would have expected that on significantly higher volume so I'm just trying to be cognizant of that potentially being the case. 18% is a very very strong margin I think at this point for Tesla energy especially as they continue to ramp so I'm just trying to be a little bit cautious on my expectations there due to some of that volatility and due to the relatively high benchmark that we're coming off of for the second quarter. So I wouldn't be surprised that this is lower wouldn't be too surprised if it's higher we don't have much visibility to it right now and then for services and other I'm at 8.1% we've seen pretty consistent increases here so hopefully we'll continue to see that. A lot of factors going to that use vehicle sales a bigger portion of the fleet being out of warranty now that's helping boost service and other margins so hopefully we'll continue to see that it's less of a drag on the business at these levels certainly than it would have been something like a year ago or even two years ago when it was likely close to zero or negative.

所以你知道我提到的几亿美元的差额，其中很多实际上来自于其他业务线，我的汽车销售额明显低于分析师的共识。好吧，回到利润方面，我们谈了一点汽车毛利润，这产生了大约20%的汽车毛利润率，这实际上比上一季度有所改善，即使不包括收入贷款，但这个数字与上一季度相差不大。至于能源部门的利润率，我预计会有小幅下降，上季度我们看到这个数字大幅提高，从第一季度的11%上升到18.4%，所以有些人可能会问为什么我在这里显示下降，这是因为我们看到的波动性实际上，可以看到2019年第四季度，这一数字从12%下降到11%，我想没有多少人会预料到这种情况，尽管销量明显增加。所以我只是试图意识到这种可能性。18％是特斯拉能源目前非常强大的利润率，尤其是在他们不断扩大规模的情况下，所以我只是在对预期持有一点谨慎态度，因为出现了一些波动，并且由于我们二季度的相对高基点。所以如果这个数字较低，我不会感到惊讶，如果它更高，我也不会感到太惊讶，目前我们对此并没有太多的透明度。至于服务和其他方面，我预计利润率为8.1％，我们在这方面一直看到相当稳定的增长，希望我们能继续看到这种情况。有很多因素会对此产生影响，例如二手车销售增加以及更多车辆已经过了保修期，这有助于提高服务和其他方面的利润率，所以希望我们能继续看到它在业务中的负担程度相对较低，尤其是与一年前甚至两年前接近零或负值的情况相比。

So overall that gives me about four and a half billion in automotive profit pretty close to quarter you know equal quarter over quarter actually almost a technical quarter over quarter but again aided by the FSD revenue included in my forecast and the additional cost of $50 million of regulatory credits and as you can see I'm quite a bit higher than the analyst consensus for gross profit.

总的来说，这给了我大约45亿美元的汽车利润，非常接近每个季度的四分之一，实际上几乎是技术上的季度增长。但需要说明的是，这个预测中包括FSD收入以及额外的5,000万美元的监管信用成本。可以看出，我的毛利润比分析师对此的共识要高得多。

Now moving into the as we travel down to the bottom line through the operation operational expenses for R&D I'm continuing to show a bigger increase here or you know small increase here we did see a big increase the last quarter from $771 million up to $943 million I believe Tesla mentioned that that in large part was due to things like Cybertruck starting to hit the R&D line so I'm kind of expecting that to continue to keep this layer keep this line high as we continue to go on in the next few quarters as Tesla puts that into production I would switch some of these costs back from R&D to cost of goods sold like we had seen with 4680s initially we saw a big jump at R&D and then that sort of switched to lines back into cogs so that's what I'm kind of expecting to. happen there but that won't happen in Q3 yet because we have not seen deliveries.

现在，随着我们向底线深入，通过运作研发的运营费用，我继续展示着一个更大的增长，或者说一个小小的增长。上个季度我们确实观察到了一次大幅增长，从7.71亿美元增长到了9.43亿美元，我相信特斯拉提到的这在很大程度上是由于像Cybertruck这样的产品开始出现在研发费用这一行中。因此，我预计在未来几个季度，特斯拉把这些产品投入生产后，这一行的费用会继续保持较高的水平。我希望像我们之前在4680电池上看到的那样，将一部分这些费用从研发费用转到成本费用中去，刚开始我们看到了研发费用的大幅飙升，然后才逐渐转移到成本费用中去，我对此也抱有同样的期望。但在第三季度这并不会发生，因为我们还没有看到交付行为。

And for SG&A kind of similar story there continuing to expect increases on the SG&A line relating to ramping Cybertruck. Bitcoin another we shouldn't really see anything there so total operating expenses puts me at just under 2.3 billion you can see analyst consensus is significantly lower 2.1 billion yielding 2.1 billion in operating income for them and I'm still a little bit higher at 3.25 let's call it so $100 million higher as we you know kind of work through I have higher profit they have higher operating or lower operating expenses so it's getting closer to netting out the same between those two factors anyway

关于SG&A费用，与Cybertruck的推出有关，我们预计会继续看到费用的增加。至于比特币方面，我们不应该看到任何变化，所以总运营费用约为23亿美元。你可以看到分析师的共识明显低于21亿美元，他们的运营收入为21亿美元，而我稍微高一些，约为32.5亿美元。通过比较，我们可以看到我有更高的利润，他们有较低的运营费用，所以在这两个因素之间趋于相等。无论如何，差距正在逐渐缩小。

I'm at 9.4% operating margin which is pretty close to last quarter they're at 8.9% so I did want to spend just a second on this because of these two forecasts I would much prefer to have better gross profit and higher operating expenses than sort of the inverse where you've got lower gross profit and lower operating expenses I think the operating expenses are a little bit less fixed right now and actually are transitory in nature to an extent obviously because of the Cybertruck as I mentioned so I do expect that these will kind of float back into cost to get sold at some point which means that on a sustained basis on sort of like a fixed business cost basis these should come down which means operating leverage should improve so I'm not too worried if these are a little bit higher this quarter but if we conversely have you know a lower operating margin number driven by lower gross profit then essentially what that means is there's a little bit less cost less cost improvement on the actual sale of the vehicles then what I was kind of hoping for forecasting here or there's a greater fall and average selling prices which means that you know Tesla's got a little bit less wiggle room to work with as they continue to to move down that curve so I'd rather see higher gross profit a lower operating margin due to higher operating expenses then you know similar operating income driven by higher operating expenses and lower gross margins so I'm sorry if that's confusing hopefully it's not too bad but really just saying that I'd rather have you know higher margins with higher operating expenses than lower margins with lower operating expenses if you could give me the same operating income number

我当前的营运利润率为9.4%，与上个季度的8.9%相当接近，所以我想花一点时间解释一下。在这两个预测中，我更希望有更好的毛利润和更高的营运费用，而不是相反的情况，即较低的毛利润和较低的营运费用。我认为目前营运费用的可变性稍微降低了，并且在一定程度上是暂时的，因为正如我之前提到的，这是由于Cybertruck的原因。所以我预计这些费用在某个时候会回归销售成本，这意味着在一个持续的基础上，基于固定业务成本的角度来看，这些费用应该会降低，这意味着营运杠杆应该会改善。所以如果这个季度这些费用略微增加，我并不太担心，但是相反地，如果我们的营运利润率较低是由于较低的毛利润导致的话，这基本上意味着在销售车辆方面的成本改善稍微减少，这与我的预测相反，或者是由于平均售价的降低导致的，这意味着特斯拉在继续下降的曲线中的操作空间会稍微减少。所以我宁愿看到较高的毛利润和较低的营运利润率，而不是较低的毛利润和较低的营运费用，如果能给我相同的营运收入数字的话，对不起如果这样解释有些混乱，希望不要太糟糕，但实际上我只是想说，与其有较低的毛利润和较低的营运费用，我宁愿有较高的利润率和较高的营运费用。

anyway anyway we'll move on to the bottom line here people always like to look at earnings per share so I'm at 76 non-gap earnings per share 76 cents non-gap earnings per share 62 cents gap again the only difference there is going to be stock based compensation which I've got increasing slightly quarter over quarter as we have seen historically and then to get you know to get your net income you're just putting in things like taxes and non-controlling interest and stuff like that but obviously I'm a little bit higher on that as my operating income is higher as well yielding my expectations of a slight beat to analyst consensus however I got to circle back again to this FSD number because I do have the two hundred million dollars in there which is driving about five cents of earnings per share here so I'd pretty much be in line with analyst consensus otherwise

无论如何，我们将继续谈谈底线。人们总是喜欢看每股收益，因此我的非通用会计准则每股收益为76美分，非通用会计准则每股收益为62美分。唯一的区别就是基于股票的补偿有所增加，这是历史上我们已经观察到的。要计算净收入，只需加入诸如税费和非控制利益之类的项目，但显然我的营业收入较高，因此我对此稍微高出一些，预计会略微超过分析师的共识。不过，我还得再谈一谈FSD这个数字，因为其中包括了2亿美元，这将为每股收益带来大约5美分的贡献，所以除此之外，我基本上与分析师的共识一致。

and I now remembered finally what I was going to say at the beginning. I try to do my forecast before really looking at any other forecast from anyone else or from analysts or anything like that. As a lot of times there's not a lot of independence of thought on these things, so I think it's better to just kind of do it in isolation and then compare.

我现在终于想起了一开始要说的话。在看任何其他人的预测或分析师的预测之前，我尽量先自己做预测。很多时候在这些事情上很少有独立思考的机会，所以我认为最好是独立地进行预测，然后再进行比较。

So although the last few quarters we've ended up in pretty similar spots, I do these before looking at the analyst numbers so ultimately coming out pretty similarly, but again a lot of differences and kind of how it nets out to get to that point which I do think our material felt like I probably explained them pretty poorly but you know four and a half billion dollars in gross profit versus 4.2 that's a pretty significant difference and has significant implications for the business going forward depending on which of these numbers ends up being closer if either is close at all.

尽管在过去几个季度，我们最后都达到了相似的位置，但我在查看分析师的数据之前对此进行了评估，最终得出了相似的结论。不过，这其中仍然存在许多差异，并且这些差异对业务未来产生了重要影响，具体取决于这些数字中哪个更接近，如果有一个数字与实际情况非常接近的话。 我认为，我可能解释不太清楚我们的情况，但是，四十五亿美元的毛利润与四点二亿的差距是非常显著的，并对业务未来产生了重要影响，这取决于这些数字中哪个更接近，如果有一个数字与实际情况非常接近的话。

So we'll see as usual, you know one of the big things I'm going to be watching is that automotive gross margin X credits line and we got to be careful because there could be things in there like FST different revenue for an exchange impact all these things that can impact it, you know when we're looking at these numbers as they come in. And then just to kind of reiterate one number that we had I alluded to as we began this if we're looking at a quarter over quarter comparison for earnings per share you can see 91 cents earnings per share last quarter 76 cents this quarter last quarter though there was that benefit of 328 million dollars for an exchange impact on the other income line so if you take that out for that quarter that probably ended up being an impact of I don't know seven cents eight cents something like that so these would be closer if you remove that obviously still have the regulatory credits and FST deferred revenue on this side in my forecast but again it's just something that's important to keep in mind as we see how things are you know evolving over time.

所以像往常一样，您知道我会关注的一个重要指标就是汽车毛利率减去信用额度，我们必须要小心，因为这个数字可能会受到一些因素的影响，比如汇率波动或为未来销售预留的收入，这些因素都有可能对结果产生影响。此外，我想强调一个数字，在我们开始时我提到过，如果对每股收益进行季度对比，你会看到上季度是91美分，而本季度是76美分。不过，上季度的其他收入项中有3.28亿美元的汇率影响的收益，如果把这个数字剔除掉，可能会影响大约7到8个美分左右，所以如果剔除这个因素，两个季度的数据会更接近。当然，在我的预测中仍然包括了监管信用和未来销售预留收入，但这只是在我们看到随着时间推移情况如何演变时需要牢记的重要事项。

And then of course as we look at the decline here that I'm forecasting quarter over quarter, you got a factor in the downtime right there was 466 deliveries in Q2 435,000 deliveries this quarter largely related to Highland downtime and of course a little bit in Giga Texas as well with those factors you know that's going to be a contributor to the bottom line as well which is going to reflect in the quarter of a quarter decline that I'm forecasting for here. Hopefully that'll make sense.

当然，当我们看到我预测的季度环比下降时，你需要考虑到这是因为第二季度有466个交付，而本季度有43.5万个交付，主要是由于Highland停工以及Giga Texas的一些因素引起的。这些因素将会对利润产生影响，也将反映在我此处预测的季度环比下降中。希望这能让你理解。

And then just free cash flow I don't forecast this specifically analysts are at about 2.4 billion I think that's pretty reasonable I think last quarter they were pretty significantly over forecasted but this quarter since we did have deliveries outpace production by about 5,000 vehicles then that's going to be a contributor to cash flow depending on what Tesla does with you know their work in progress and actual parts inventory and things like that that'll impact free cash flow and it's somewhat difficult to forecast those items but that the deliveries outpacing production should be a positive influencing factor for free cash flow which should reflect well on Tesla's you know cash position when they report that. So I know we went through a lot there but again hopefully that just kind of helps set expectations. Not even set expectations but just kind of you know set the context, help with understanding as we do get the report tomorrow but of course we'll we'll be here to talk about that at that time.

然后，就是自由现金流。我没有具体地预测这个数字，分析师们估计是约24亿美元，我认为这个估计相当合理。上个季度他们的预测相当高，但是这个季度，由于交付数量超过了生产数量约5000辆，这将对现金流造成一定的影响，具体还要看特斯拉对在制品和实际零部件库存等方面的处理情况，这将对自由现金流产生影响。但是，交付数量超过生产数量应该对自由现金流产生正面的影响，并在特斯拉报告这些数据时反映出他们的现金状况。我知道我们刚才提到了很多内容，但是希望这有助于大家对明天的报告有所期待，并在那个时候我们会及时进行讨论。

So I'm just going to quickly take a look through the comments but that'll kind of you know wrap up the points I wanted to make here unless I remember anything as I'm looking through here but I just want to take a quick look in case people have specific questions about the forecast and thanks you thank you guys for bearing with I know it's maybe not always super fun to just look in Excel spreadsheet but I think it's important. I mean sometimes people you know have strong feelings about the expectations being set one way or another for Tesla and we should just let them report it and go from there. Largely I agree with that however I think it's super helpful to just go through and forecast these things just just for understanding the business right like understanding how all these things connect understanding how you know demand relates to the bottom line and things like that and how all of it flows together and how it changes over time and I think by doing the actual process of forecasting I'd recommend it to everybody because it really does help I think improve that understanding and just kind of you know helps with helps with context around the decisions that Tesla has to make you know day to day. So I definitely would recommend that for everybody.

所以我只是想快速翻一下评论，但这将基本上总结我在这里想要表达的观点，除非我在看评论的过程中还记得其他事情，但我只是想快速看一下，以防有人对预测有特定的问题，谢谢你们，感谢你们的耐心等待，我知道只是看电子表格可能不总是很有趣，但我认为这很重要。我是指有时人们对特斯拉的设定预期持有强烈意见，我们应该让他们报告，并从中了解情况。在很大程度上，我同意，然而，我认为通过预测这些事情只是为了理解业务是非常有帮助的，就像理解所有这些事情是如何相互关联的，理解需求如何与利润相关，以及所有这些事情如何相互关联并随时间变化，通过实际的预测过程，我推荐每个人都去做，因为它真的有助于提高理解，只是在特斯拉每天不得不做出决策时提供一些背景信息。所以我Definitely would recommend that for everybody.

All right, just a quick look and through comments here. Bear with me, this will give us a little preview for tomorrow. Obviously, with earnings episodes, there's some downtime like this.

好的，我只是快速地浏览和阅读这里的评论。请耐心等待，这将为我们提供明天的一点预览。显然，在收益季期间，会有一些像这样的休息时间。

All right, I'm not seeing like a ton of questions here, which is good. It's always kind of hard to tell. Yeah, good one here. Any thoughts on possible announcements? That's a good reminder, so I didn't really talk too much about it because I think everyone this time, you know, we're all looking for information on Cybertruck. Hopefully, we'll get an update from Tesla on that. I don't know if we'll get a delivery date specifically, but I would imagine that Tesla would reiterate Cybertruck deliveries before the end of the year, which would obviously then be this quarter. So hopefully we'll hear some stuff about that, maybe some discussion on on Highland since Motor Trend had that vehicle and kind of talked about the release date. Tesla may be a little bit more willing to talk about that and obviously the impact in the international market are already apparent. 46 80s, we'll definitely get an update on that. FSD, I would imagine we'll probably hear a little bit more about version 12. I don't know that we'll hear a lot that's anything more than we've heard from Elon already on version 12. He'll probably be explaining it to people that maybe don't follow quite as closely the stuff that we've already heard, which I think is good. Maybe we'll hear a little bit about Optimus. I know Tesla had said on the last earnings call that sort of the production level actuator was ready to go into sort of mass production, kind of targeting November for that. So we're not quite there yet, but maybe we hear an update on the progress there, obviously. We just had that video from Optimus a little bit ago from the Optimus Tesla X account. So those would be kind of the main things that I would keep an eye out for. And then, you know, it'll be interesting. This call, of course, this will be our first one without Zach Kirkhorn, unfortunately. But looking forward to hearing from the new CFO. Obviously, been with Tesla for a long time as well. So it'll be nice to just kind of get his perspective and see how that kind of flows into the earnings call as well, as that's usually our primary time to get updated from the CFO.

好的，我没有看到很多问题，这是很好的。有时很难判断。是的，这个问题很好。对于可能的公告有什么想法吗？这是个很好的提醒，所以我没有详细讨论它，因为我认为这次每个人都在寻找有关Cybertruck的信息。希望我们能从特斯拉那里得到更新。我不知道是否会得到具体的交付日期，但我想特斯拉会再次重申Cybertruck交付在年底之前，这显然是本季度。所以希望我们能听到一些关于此的消息，也许还会有一些关于Highland的讨论，因为Motor Trend有过该车辆的报道并谈到了发布日期。特斯拉可能会更愿意谈论这个，显然全球市场的影响已经显现出来。46 80S，我们肯定会得到关于它的更新。关于FSD，我想我们可能会听到更多关于12版本的消息。我不知道我们会不会听到比我们已经从埃隆那里听到的更多的内容。他可能会向那些并不如我们一样密切关注的人解释一些我们已经听到的内容，我认为这是好的。也许我们会听到一些关于Optimus的消息。我知道特斯拉在上次的盈利电话中曾表示，生产级执行器已准备好进入大规模生产阶段，计划在11月份实施。所以我们还没有完全实现那个目标，但也许我们会听到有关进展情况的更新，显然，我们之前从Optimus Tesla X账户获得了那段视频。这些将是我关注的主要内容。然后呢，这个电话肯定会很有趣，毕竟这是我们第一次没有Zach Kirkhorn参与的电话了。但我期待听到新首席财务官的意见。显然，他也在特斯拉工作了很长时间，所以能听到他的观点，看看它如何融入盈利电话中，这通常是我们从首席财务官那里得到更新的主要时间。

So yeah, I think a lot's look forward to. Obviously, this isn't the most exciting quarter on a financial basis with some of the downtime and Tesla kind of still working through the level setting of pricing and demand and how it all fits together with this sort of new environment that we're in. You know, we opened this talking about GM and the impact on their business and their business decisions from the current environment. And you know, that impacts Tesla, too. Obviously, there's a lot to talk about profit optimization that we've spent a lot of time on. But regardless of anything that Tesla is doing on that front, this was always going to impact them. The macro economy was always going to impact Tesla, it's just a matter of the degree. So, you know, we're working through that period. It's not a lot of fun and you can see if we go down through with the EPS line, this is a pretty significant decline year over year. You know, if my number is anywhere in the ballpark or the analyst number is anywhere in the ballpark, down 28% year over year, not super fun to see that when you've got deliveries up 27%. So again, you know, we're kind of level setting from that period of time where things were kind of bubbled in terms of pricing. Now it's maybe hopefully more towards the trough end of that and hopefully we get some stability as we work forward from here. But that will mean that the price, you know, price-earnings ratio declines unless we see a significant decline in the stock price, hopefully not. But you can see here if we just look at the gap line earnings per share of, you know, three hundred three dollars and fifty three cents over the last twelve months, but you're replacing ninety five cents with potentially something in the sixty cent range, obviously pending Tesla's number which would move, if my forecast is close, move us down from three fifty three to three twenty. So obviously that'll change the denominator for the price-earnings ratio calculation and push the PE up a little bit. But again, a lot of that a factor of downtime, a factor in a lot of that and of course just the macro environment. So we'll see, but those are again helpful pieces of context to kind of keep in mind.

嗯，我认为有很多事情值得期待。显然，从财务角度来看，这将不是最令人兴奋的季度，因为特斯拉仍在努力确定定价、需求以及如何与我们所处的这种新环境相结合。你知道，我们一开始就谈到了通用汽车和它们的业务以及当前环境对它们业务决策的影响。当然，这也会影响到特斯拉。当然，我们花了很多时间来讨论利润最大化的问题。但不管特斯拉在这方面做了什么，这种情况总是会影响到他们。宏观经济总是会影响到特斯拉，只是程度的问题。所以，我们正在经历这个时期。这并不是很有趣，如果我们看一下每股收益这一条线，可以看到这是一个相当大的年度下降。你知道，如果我的数字或分析师的数字接近实际情况，年度下降率为28%，看到交付量增加27%时，肯定不会感到太有趣。所以，我们正在从那段定价趋于泡沫化的时期中恢复。现在，希望我们能达到低谷，并在此基础上获得一些稳定。但那将意味着市盈率会下降，除非股价大幅下降，希望不是这样。但是你可以看到这里，如果我们只看间隔线每股收益，过去12个月的收益是3.53美元，但你将95美分替换成可能在60美分左右的数字，如果我的预测接近的话，我们的每股收益可能会从3.53降至3.20。显然，这将改变市盈率计算中的分母，稍微提高市盈率。但再一次，这很大程度上是因为停产和宏观环境的因素。所以我们将拭目以待，但这些仍然是有用的背景资料。

Winston, thank you. I really appreciate that, always super supportive. So thank you, I appreciate that a lot.

温斯顿，谢谢。我非常感激你，你一直都给予我超级的支持。所以谢谢你，我非常感激。

Jack got a super chat here. Hey Rob, do you think the September downtime in Austin, the lack of night shift in Berlin, and lower September Y production in China could indicate lower demand for the Y as Tesla's production to match for the orders?

杰克在这里收到了一笔超级聊天赞助。嘿，罗布，你认为奥斯丁在九月的停工、柏林缺乏夜班工作以及中国九月份Model Y生产的减少，是否表明特斯拉为满足订单而减少了Model Y的需求？

Yeah, I think it's probably oversimplifying it. I think Tesla probably makes their decisions on how they want to do things at their factories. based off of how urgent it is to sort of fulfill you know orders if orders are coming in a little bit lower it's probably an easier time for Tesla to do things like take some downtime to you know improve things that maybe are adding costs so I think that's probably what we're seeing right now and in Texas and Berlin maybe not both factories equivalently but I think that you know orders are going to and should influence those decisions that Tesla's make making if Tesla had a six month backlog on Berlin production on Texas production they'd probably push things a little bit harder versus if they don't if it's a few weeks they know they can you know take some time to maybe optimize some other things in terms of cost which would be a smart thing to do so I wouldn't put it as black and white as you know oh there's not enough orders we're gonna shut down the factories I don't think it's you know definitely wouldn't put it that way I don't think that's the case at all but I think you know strategically you're gonna make different decisions based off of how big of a backlog you have and obviously right now Tesla's not sitting on on a huge one just based off of delivery order windows and price changes and all the stuff that kind of indicates that so you know it's a good question and a good thing to keep in mind and it'd be awesome if Tesla would well I don't know if it'd be awesome if Tesla would share a little bit more on that because it's something that you know the market can kind of overreact to some of those things a lot of the time but I'm sure it's thing that you know Tesla's considering and factoring into the decisions that they're making a really good question on that good a funny comment here none of this matters LOL so I mean it's I know it's probably a little bit tongue-in-cheek comment and to an extent I agree with it right like it doesn't super matter if we come in at 59 cents or 62 cents or whatever else especially in a period of time where you've got downtime that's gonna impact these things you've got ramps like the 4680 ramp cyber truck all these things are gonna influence the financials but broadly speaking you know the financials over a year like what we've seen unfold on this sheet obviously those things matter and give us a sense of what's gonna happen with the business right like it's it's been pretty apparent that you know earnings per share we're gonna be declining we're kind of stagnating this year for quite some time we've been talking about that so how relevant that is to the long-term that's certainly debatable may not be relevant at all certainly if FSD makes continued progress maybe none of this does matter but it's Tesla daily right like we we want to understand how things are progressing day to day and hopefully frame that in a long-term context and hopefully going through these things in these in this level of detail helps with with that understanding which again is really the whole point it's not to try to get the number dead on and like beat all the other people on Twitter like I couldn't care less about that but it's it's helpful to just understand you know the context of the business so all right well I didn't really intend to turn this into like a Q&A thing but hopefully everyone feels feels good going in tomorrow just like kind of understanding some of the impacts you know again I'll point out to the FSD deferred revenue that's a big influencing factor my forecast and then just when we look quarter over quarter you got to keep in mind that $328 million of impact last quarter on the other income line Tesla did also note this was a year over year change the negative impact of foreign exchange in terms of average selling prices I'm not great at forecasting that unfortunately so it's always kind of a wild card but it also impacted in other areas other than just that operating income line so we'll try to keep an eye on updates for that tomorrow as well all right well that'll wrap it up for today so as always thank you for listening make sure you subscribe to and sign up for notifications you can also find me on xi Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for earnings for the Wednesday October 18th episodes of Tesla Daily thank you

是的，我认为这可能过于简单化了。我认为特斯拉在其工厂中决策的方式是根据订单的紧迫程度来完成的。如果订单稍微减少，特斯拉可能会更容易地采取一些停工时间来改进可能会增加成本的事情，所以我认为这可能是我们现在在德克萨斯和柏林看到的情况，也许不是两个工厂都一样，但我认为订单将会和应该会对特斯拉的决策产生影响。如果特斯拉在柏林生产或德克萨斯生产方面有六个月的积压，他们可能会更加努力推进，而不是几周的话，他们知道他们可以花些时间来优化其他方面的成本，这将是一个明智的做法。所以我不会把它黑白地说成：哦，订单太少了，我们要关闭工厂。我不认为事情是那样的，我认为根本就不是那样。但我认为根据你有多少积压，你会基于战略上做出不同的决策，而现在显然特斯拉并没有积压，这可以从交付订单窗口和价格变化等方面得出结论。这是一个很好的问题，也是一个需要记在心里的好事情，如果特斯拉能够分享更多相关信息将是很棒的，因为市场有时会对某些事情过度反应，但我确定特斯拉正在考虑并将这些信息纳入他们的决策中。在这个问题上有一个有趣的评论，也就是，这都没什么重要的哈哈，我知道这可能是一个有点挖苦的评论，而在某种程度上我同意它，比如，如果我们的收益是59美分或62美分或其他什么，这并不是特别重要，尤其是在你有停工时间，这将影响这些方面；你还有一些新产品的推出，例如4680电池和Cybertruck等，这些也将影响财务状况。但总体来说，年度财务状况，就像在这张表上展示的那样，显然是有影响的，并且可以反映出业务将来会发生什么，比如每股盈利很明显将会下降，今年可能会停滞很长一段时间，我们一直在谈论这个问题。如何界定这对长期发展的影响，这是可以讨论的，可能一点也不相关，当然，如果全自动驾驶继续取得进展，也许所有这些事情都不重要，但这是《特斯拉日报》，我们希望了解每天事物的进展情况，并希望用长期的背景来解读，希望以这个详细程度的讨论来帮助理解，这其实才是整个目的，不是为了准确预测数字，击败推特上的其他人，我对那些毫不在乎。但了解企业的背景是有帮助的，好吧，我本来不打算将这变成一个问答环节的，但希望每个人明天都有一个良好的感觉，至少对一些影响有所了解，再次感谢您的倾听，确保您订阅并开启通知，您还可以在xi Tesla Podcast上找到我，我们明天见，在10月18日星期三的《特斯拉日报》中会有财报等内容。谢谢！