Markets Weekly October 14, 2023
发布时间 2023-10-14 14:22:07 来源
摘要
Fed is (very likely) Done Favorite war hedge today US China not really decoupling 00:00 - Intro 0:53 - Fed is (very likely) Done ...
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中英文字稿 
Hello, my friends. Today is October 14th. My name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly.
大家好，朋友们。今天是10月14日。我叫约瑟夫，欢迎来到《市场周报》。
So this week, there was a lot going on, so we have a lot to talk about. First off, let's start with the Fed, where we had many Fed speakers and some of them have been suggesting that maybe the rate hike cycle is over.
这周发生了很多事情，所以我们有很多要谈论的。首先，让我们从美联储开始，许多美联储发言人都表示可能加息周期已经结束。
Secondly, we have to talk about the elephant in the room. This past week, there were big developments in geopolitics. Let's talk about what that means for markets and what my favorite hedge is in this context.
其次，我们必须讨论房间里的大象。过去一周，地缘政治发生了重大变化。让我们谈谈这对市场意味着什么，以及在这种背景下我的最喜欢的对冲是什么。
And lastly, let's talk about this interesting study from the BIS that suggests that the China-US decoupling that many have been reading about doesn't seem to actually be happening.
最后，让我们谈谈瑞士国际清算银行的这项有趣研究，该研究表明许多人一直在阅读的中美脱钩似乎并没有真正发生。
Okay, starting with the Fed. Now, before we start, let's level set where we are. So as we all know, every quarter, the Fed releases a dot plot where they guide the market towards what they're thinking. In June, the Fed guided towards two more rate hikes this year. And since June, they did hike one more time, and then we had another September dot plot.
好的，让我们从美联储开始。在我们开始之前，让我们明确一下现在的情况。众所周知，每个季度，美联储发布一个点图，指导市场了解他们的想法。在六月份，美联储指导今年还会有两次加息。自六月份以来，他们确实加息了一次，然后我们有了九月的点图。
At their most recent September dot plot, they again affirmed their guidance suggesting that they would be one more rate hike in the fourth quarter of this year. The rationale for that, of course, is that the US economy has been stronger than the Fed expected. The Fed was thinking that they would hike rates, slow the economy down, and then get inflation under control. But in practice, what happened is that they hike rates and the economy accelerated.
在最近的九月点阵图中，美联储再次确认了他们的指引，表明今年第四季度将再次加息。当然，他们之所以这样做的原因是美国经济比美联储预期的更强劲。美联储认为他们会加息以减缓经济增长，并控制通胀。但实际情况是，他们加息后经济反而加速增长了。
So the economy over the first half of the year grew at 2%, which is above potential growth. And this third quarter looks like it's going to be growing even faster. So that was not what the Fed expected, and seeing that inflation remains above their target, they thought that they probably should keep hiking.
因此，上半年经济增长了2%，超过了潜在增长率。而且第三季度的增长速度似乎会更快。这不符合美联储的预期，而且考虑到通胀率仍高于他们的目标，他们认为可能应该继续加息。
However, there have been big developments in the markets since their last meeting, specifically, longer dated treasure yields have gone up a lot. So as we've been talking about over the past few weeks, US treasure yields have shot up higher. The tenure looks like it was almost approaching 5% before pulling back this week on account of geopolitical fears. But the tenure yield, it's still comfortably above 4.5%, and much higher than it was when the Fed last had their meeting.
然而，自上次会议以来市场发生了重大变化，特别是长期国债收益率大幅上升。所以正如我们在过去几周所讨论的那样，美国国债收益率大幅上涨。这个期限看起来几乎接近5%，在这周由于地缘政治担忧而回落。但是，这个期限的收益率仍然舒适地超过4.5%，比美联储上次会议时要高得多。
So when you look at interest rates, I think it's important to note that when the Fed is cutting or raising interest rates, they're toggling the overnight interest rate, which in practice is not that impactful when it comes to the real economy. When companies borrow, let's say someone goes out and takes out a mortgage, they're really a borrowing at longer tenors. So raising and lowering the overnight interest rate in itself doesn't have that big of an impact on the real economy.
因此，当你看利率时，我认为重要的是要注意，当美联储降低或提高利率时，实际上他们调控的是隔夜利率，这在实际经济中并没有太大的影响。当公司借款时，比如说有人申请了一项抵押贷款，他们实际上是以更长期的时间来借款。因此，单独升降隔夜利率并不会对实际经济产生太大的影响。
Looking back over the past year, longer dated interest rates have basically stayed range about until very recently, all the while the Fed has been hiking rates. So in effect, financial conditions over the past year haven't really meaningfully tightened until this recent surge higher in yields.
回顾过去一年，较长期的利率基本上一直保持在一个范围内，直到最近才有所变动，而美联储一直在加息。因此实际上，过去一年的金融条件在近期的利率飙升之前并没有真正明显地收紧。
Now, based on that, on my Monday blog post, I wrote that the Fed has probably done tightening since the market has basically tightened for them. The rise in longer dated yields and the strengthening dollar is going to have a pretty meaningful impact on the real economy. So if the market's already tightened for the Fed, the Fed obviously doesn't need to tighten anymore. My view is that the rate hike cycle is over.
根据此，根据我周一的博文，我写道美联储可能已经结束紧缩政策，因为市场基本上已经替他们紧缩了。长期债券收益率上升和美元走强将对实体经济产生相当重要的影响。因此，如果市场已经为美联储紧缩了，那么美联储显然就不再需要继续紧缩。我的观点是加息周期已经结束。
And just as I published that we had a Fed speaker basically come out and say the same thing. President Logan of the Dallas Fed, who is also a voting member, points to the rise in longer dated yields and suggests that, well, if yields continue to rise, longer than yields continue to rise, that to me means that we probably don't need to hike as much as we expected, which of course, they only expected to hike one more time. We also had President Collins of the Boston Fed come out and say something similar and earlier, President Daly of the San Francisco Fed also said the same thing.
就在我发表那篇文章之后，我们看到了一位美联储发言人基本上表示了同样的观点。达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛根总统，同时也是一个投票委员，指出了长期收益率的上升，并建议，如果收益率继续上升，那就意味着我们可能不需要像预期的那样频繁加息了，他们原本只预计还会加息一次。波士顿联邦储备银行行长科林斯也发表了类似的观点，而早些时候旧金山联邦储备银行行长戴利也表示了相同的看法。
Now, to be clear, not everyone at the Fed is on the same page. We had Governor Bowman give a speech this past week, let's suggest that she's still in the rate hike camp. But I suspect that that is becoming more of a minority view. Obviously, financial conditions have tightened.
现在，明确一点，美联储并非所有人都持相同观点。上周我们有鲍曼州长发表讲话，可以说她仍然支持加息政策。但我怀疑这个观点正逐渐成为少数派的看法。很显然，金融环境已经收紧。
So, and at the same time, I think there's a lot more uncertainty due to geopolitics in what's happening in the world. So it would make a lot more sense for the Fed to kind of pause at the very least pause to see what how things unfold.
因此，同时我认为由于地缘政治的不确定性，世界上正在发生的事情存在很多更大的不确定性。因此，至少暂停一下以观望事态发展对美联储来说是更加明智的做法。
Now, when you look into market pricing, though, what I see is that the market still prices a reasonable probability that the Fed is going to hike one more time. And the market doesn't really think the Fed is going to be cutting rates until the second half of next year. My sense is that the market is making a mistake again.
现在，当你看看市场定价时，我发现市场依然相当可能性认为联邦储备委员会(Fed)将再次加息。市场并不真正认为联邦储备委员会会在明年下半年之前降息。我认为市场再次犯了一个错误。
So, over the past two years, the market has been totally, totally wrong on what the Fed would do. Now, if you were following me over the past two years, you would have noted that I have always been consistent in saying that, guys, the Fed is serious about this. They're going to hike rates, they're going to hike a lot, and they're going to hold it. It's going to be higher for longer.
所以，在过去的两年里，市场完全、完全错误地判断了联邦储备系统(Fed)会采取什么行动。现在，如果你在过去的两年里一直关注我，你会注意到我一直一贯地说，伙计们，联邦储备系统是认真的。他们会加息，会加很多次，而且还会坚持下去。利率会持续较高的时间会更长。
Now, these past two years, the market has fought the Fed every step of the way and has been totally wrong. I'm getting the sense that the Fed, then the market, okay, so to be clear, market today is on the same page as the Fed as projected in the dot plots. So, finally, finally, an agreement with the Fed, they're finally, you know, accepting that the Fed is serious, rates are going to go higher and stay higher. But I'm getting the sense that the market is not sensing this turning point in Fed communication, and actually is probably pricing in too aggressive a rate path going forward. And my own personal view is that the rate hike cycle was done and rate cuts are going to happen sooner than the market currently expects, and we'll see how that plays out in the coming months.
现在，过去两年，市场在每一个步骤上都与美联储对抗，并且完全错误。我感觉到，先是美联储，然后是市场，好吧，为了明确起见，市场今天与美联储在点阵图中的预测是一致的。所以，终于和美联储达成了一致，他们终于认识到美联储是认真的，利率将会上升并保持在较高水平。但是我觉得市场没有意识到美联储沟通的这个转折点，实际上可能过于预期了未来的加息规模。我个人的观点是加息周期已经结束，降息会比市场目前的预期来得更快，我们会在未来几个月看到结果如何。
Okay, now let's talk about the big elephant in the room, the geopolitical events that we had developed over the past week. Now, as we know, there was an attack on Israel, and as we were recording today, Israel looks like it's about to retaliate. So, there's a lot of things going on in the Middle East. And you can see concerns seep into the markets depending on the asset class that you focus on. If you look at equities, honestly, it's hard to see too much concern in equities, major indices are still, you know, didn't really move that much over the next year. But we've moved that much over the past week. Of course, it's got to be careful. There could be a lot of things going on under the hood. As we've learned from, you know, people who specialize in this field, there seems to be a lot of options hedging activity there.
好的，现在让我们谈谈房间里的大象，即上周发展的地缘政治事件。正如我们所知，以色列遭到了一次攻击，而我们今天录制的时候，以色列看起来正准备进行报复。所以，中东正在发生很多事情。你可以看到市场上的担忧根据你关注的资产类别而渗入其中。如果你看股票，老实说，在股票方面很难看到太多的担忧，主要指数在未来一年并没有太大的波动。但是，过去一周的情况就不一样了。当然，我们必须小心，隐藏着很多事情。正如我们从这个领域的专家学到的，似乎有很多期权对冲活动。
But looking across assets, let's look at the VIX, for example, VIX spiked on Friday, suggesting that there are people reaching for perhaps put options, increasing the options premiums, which of course, fees into VIX, implied volatility. Now, you can also look at traditional safe havens, like the US Treasuries, again, 10-year Treasury yield, declined a lot on Friday, and the US Dollar is getting a steady bid. Traditional safe assets flows. If you look at gold, gold popped 3% on Friday, and traditionally gold has been an asset that benefited from geopolitical instability.
但是从整体资产来看，让我们以VIX为例。VIX在周五飙升，表明有人开始买入看跌期权，推高期权费率，进而影响到VIX的隐含波动率。此外，我们还可以看传统的避险资产，比如美国国债。美国10年期国债收益率在周五大幅下降，而美元则稳步上涨。这是传统的安全资产流向。再来看黄金，黄金在周五上涨了3%。传统上，黄金是受益于地缘政治不稳定的资产。
And of course, we have to look at oil. The conflict is in the Middle East, and although Israel is not a major producer of oil, there is also always a possibility that this conflict continues to grow and involves, let's say, Iran or Saudi Arabia or Qatar, who are major oil producers. So there is some tail risk there, and oil prices rose markedly on Friday. Now, I have no idea how this conflict will evolve. It could just blow away, or it could become increasingly serious.
当然，我们必须关注石油问题。这次冲突发生在中东地区，虽然以色列并非主要的石油生产国，但也存在这种可能性，冲突会继续扩大并涉及到像伊朗、沙特阿拉伯或卡塔尔这样的主要石油生产国。因此存在一定的风险，上周五石油价格大幅上涨。对于这次冲突的进展，我无法预测。它可能会消散无痕，或者可能变得越来越严重。
So, how do you manage a portfolio in this context? Well, I guess, traditionally, what you could do, of course, is to buy Treasuries, buy Dollars, buy Gold, and buy put options like the market pricing is suggesting. Those are all fine, but from my perspective, I really like short dated interest rates as a hedge in this scenario. On the one hand, as I talked about earlier, I suspect that the market is a bit too aggressive in their pricing, and on the other hand, in the event that we do have a very serious geopolitical conflict, I suspect that the impulse for the Fed would be to try to soften the blow on the global economy by cutting rates a little bit.
那么，在这种情况下，你如何管理投资组合呢？嗯，我想，传统上你可以做的是购买国债、购买美元、购买黄金，并购买市场定价所建议的看跌期权。这些都是可以的，但从我的角度来看，我真的很喜欢短期利率作为对冲手段。一方面，就像我之前讲到的，我怀疑市场在定价方面有些过于激进，另一方面，如果我们确实出现了严重的地缘政治冲突，我怀疑美联储会试图通过稍微降低利率来减轻对全球经济的冲击。
Now, recall, during 9-11, that's basically what the Fed did as well. They cut rates more than they otherwise would in an effort to soften the shock to the global economy. If this turns out to be a very big conflict, again, this is going to have very big economic implications, and I think that the first impact for the Fed and other central banks would be to try to soften the blow a little bit. And, of course, you could be expressed in a number of ways. You have bills, you have two years, you have so for futures, and so forth. But that's how I look at this. And, again, there's tremendous amounts of uncertainty going forward, so it's hard to know how things evolve. But if you are in short dated rates, depending on the instrument, you could also be collecting a pretty good yield right now. So, sure dated. Two years, treasury bills are close to 5%. And that's how I think about this.
现在，回想一下，在9-11事件期间，联邦储备系统采取了与此类似的做法。他们大幅降低了利率，以缓解对全球经济的冲击。如果这次冲突被证明是一场非常大的冲突，那么它将对经济产生非常大的影响，我认为联邦储备系统和其他央行的第一个反应将是试图稍微减轻冲击。当然，这可以以多种方式表达。有债券、两年期国债、期货等等。但这就是我的看法。再次强调，未来存在着巨大的不确定性，所以很难知道事情会如何发展。但如果你在持有短期利率资产，根据不同工具，你目前也可以获得相当高的收益。因此，期限较短的两年期国债收益率接近5%。这就是我对此问题的看法。
Okay, now the last thing that we want to talk about is this really interesting study from the BIS on US, China, Decoupling, or actually it's more broadly about global value chains.
好的，现在我们要讨论的最后一件事是来自国际清算银行关于美国、中国脱钩的一项非常有趣的研究，实际上更广泛地涉及到全球价值链。
So, a team of researchers at the BIS tried to map out just how interdependent companies are in the world.
因此，银行国际清算银行的一个研究团队试图绘制出世界上公司之间的相互依存程度。
For example, let's say a US company has a supplier in Vietnam. Okay, well, we can have this value chain where a US company is buying from Vietnam. So, there's that one step linkage there.
举个例子，假设一个美国公司在越南有一家供应商。好吧，我们可以建立这样一条价值链，美国公司从越南采购商品。所以，在这里有一个步骤的联系。
Okay, but let's go a step beyond that. Obviously, the Vietnamese company that sells to the US company, they have their suppliers as well. Right? So, let's say the Vietnamese company gets their supplies from a German company.
好的，但让我们更进一步。显然，向美国公司销售的越南公司也有他们自己的供应商，对吗？那么，假设越南公司从一家德国公司获取他们的供应。
Okay, then from the US company's perspective, that German company is a two step supplier. After all, the German company supplies to the Vietnamese company and the Vietnamese company in turn supplies to the US company.
好的，那么从美国公司的角度来看，那个德国公司是一个二级供应商。毕竟，德国公司向越南公司供应，然后越南公司再供应给美国公司。
And you can continue to map out this web of relationships, and you'll get a really big entangled mess. After all, we've had decades of globalization, global supply chains are very global. So, we are strongly interconnected.
而且你可以继续绘制这个关系网络，最终你会得到一个非常复杂的混乱局面。毕竟，全球化已经发展了几十年，全球供应链非常全球化。因此，我们之间的联系十分紧密。
But as we also know, there has been a push since the Trump administration for there to be more decoupling between US and let's say, countries that are not as friendly with the US. This decoupling has accelerated under the Biden administration because we also realized that there's some national security concerns as well.
但正如我们所知，自特朗普政府以来，一直存在着推动美国与那些对美国友好程度不高的国家之间更多脱钩的努力。这种脱钩在拜登政府下加速进行，因为我们也意识到存在一些国家安全上的担忧。
During COVID, it did not seem to have to be a good idea for the US to be completely dependent upon, say, China for a lot of medical supplies. So, again, there's been a big push to onshore or French or as Treasury Secretary of the Yellen has said before.
在COVID期间，对于美国来说，完全依赖中国等国家的大量医疗物资似乎不是一个好主意。因此，再次出现了大力推动国内生产或回流生产的情况，正如财政部长耶伦之前所说的那样。
But how is that actually going? Well, the BIS map out the supply chains for a lot of companies, and they show what peers on the surface to be encouraging results.
那么，实际情况如何呢？嗯，国际清算银行（BIS）绘制了大量公司的供应链，它们显示出的结果表面上看起来是令人鼓舞的。
If you look at their mapping, what you'll see is that, well, it looks like that American companies have really reduced their supply chain exposure to China. You see here suppliers to US companies. Well, China has their fewer one step and two set suppliers from China to the US. And in place of that, we see a rise of the rest of Asia Pacific. So it seems like on the surface, US companies have been moving away from China as a supplier and diversifying to places, say Vietnam or Taiwan or Korea and so forth. Right.
如果你看他们的映射，你会发现，嗯，看起来美国公司确实大大减少了它们对中国的供应链暴露。你在这里看到的是美国公司的供应商。嗯，中国的供应商从中国到美国的一级和二级供应商数量减少了。而取而代之的是，我们看到了亚太地区其他地方的崛起。所以表面上看，美国公司似乎在远离中国作为供应商，而是在向其他地方进行多元化，比如越南、台湾、韩国等等。对的。
But then let's look at the other part of that chart. Now, customers of Chinese suppliers. Well, in accordance with decoupling, there are fewer American customers of Chinese suppliers, but there's a huge surge in the rest of Asia Pacific customers to Chinese suppliers.
然后让我们来看一下图表的另一部分。现在，中国供应商的客户情况。根据脱钩理论，与中国供应商的美国客户减少了，但亚太地区其他地区的客户对中国供应商的需求却出现了巨大增长。
Now, you put the two pieces up together and you get a really interesting picture. What seems to be happening is that so the American companies are not buying from Chinese companies instead they're buying from other Asian companies.
现在，你把这两个部分放在一起，就能得到一幅非常有趣的图片。看起来似乎发生的情况是，美国公司不再从中国公司购买产品，而是转而从其他亚洲公司购买。
Now, who are the other other Asian companies buying from? Well, it looks like the other Asian companies. Well, they're just turning around and they're buying from Chinese companies.
现在，其他亚洲公司在从谁那里购买呢？嗯，看起来是其他亚洲公司。嗯，他们只是转身又从中国公司购买。
So in a sense, there hasn't really been decoupling. Simply, we added another layer of middlemen. Instead of buying directly from China, US companies are buying from other Asian countries who in turn, then buy from China.
从某种意义上讲，实际上并没有实现脱钩。只不过我们增加了另一层中间商。美国公司不再直接从中国购买，而是从其他亚洲国家购买，而这些亚洲国家反过来又从中国购买。
So it seems like there hasn't been really decoupling just an extra middleman, which of course raises costs to Americans consumers without actually addressing the underlying geopolitical concern.
所以看起来并没有真正的脱钩，只是增加了一个额外的中间人，这当然会增加美国消费者的成本，而实际上并没有解决潜在的地缘政治问题。
And I think this is to be expected. So companies have had built up an ecosystem in China for over decades. It's probably really difficult to move. And any move is going to take time.
我认为这是可以预料的。因此，多年来，许多公司在中国建立起了一个生态系统。要迁移这个生态系统可能非常困难。而且，任何迁移都需要时间。
So at the moment, at least what you're reading in in the news doesn't seem to be valid. There really hasn't been meaningfully decoupling, not yet, but we'll watch to see how this goes.
所以目前至少你在新闻中读到的似乎并不准确。实际上，尚未实质性地解耦，至少到现在为止尚未发生，但我们将持续关注事态发展。
Okay. And that's all I prepared for today. Again, if you like what you're watching, remember to like and subscribe. And if you're interested in getting my latest commentary on what's happening in the markets, be sure to check out my blog, FedGuy.com.
好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容了。再次提醒，如果你喜欢正在观看的内容，请记得点赞和订阅。如果你对获取我对市场动态的最新评论感兴趣，一定要去我的博客FedGuy.com查看。
And if you're interested in learning about how markets work from the perspective of a macro trader, check out my courses at centralbanking101.com.
如果你对从宏观交易员的角度了解市场运作感兴趣的话，可以访问centralbanking101.com了解我的课程。
That's it. And I'll talk to you guys next week.
就这些了。我们下周再聊。