Tesla's 4680 Ramp: The Truth / Cybertruck Wrap: 6 Months / Why Tesla Sold Wiferon ⚡️
发布时间 2023-10-11 22:37:46 来源
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WuWa video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCfJttCfIik
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00:00 - Battery Day Reminder
00:47 - Tesla 4680 Milestone
4:54 - Better Deals on Flights/Hotels (Surfshark)
6:16 - TSLA Stock Update
7:27 - France and EV Subsidies
8:26 - Tesla Sells Wiferion
9:55 - Asia First V4
10:20 - Official Tesla Wraps
14:22 - Tesla SuC Isreal
14:33 - 50% Growth FUD
15:42 - Tesla China
17:50 - Model Y Best Company Car
18:41 - Stellantis Doubles Down
19:17 - Yikes
19:38 - Ford, Hyundai and IDRA
21:04 - First Credit Transfer
22:03 - EV Survey
23:08 - Redwood Portal
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#TeslaCybertruck #Tesla4680 #TeslaWraps
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中英文字稿 
This is important to appreciate. Like when you build a factory, there's a certain capacity that you design to, and then it takes some period of time to actually achieve that capacity. So I would say it's probably about a year before we get to the 10 gigawatt hour annualized rate with the pilot plant. And this is just a pilot plant. The actual production plants will be more on the order of, you know, maybe 200 gigawatt hours, maybe more over time. And then long term, we're expecting to make on the order of 3000 gigawatt hours or three terawatt hours per year. I think we can, I think we've got a good chance of achieving this actually before 2030. But I'm highly confident that we can do it by 2030.
这一点很重要要认识到。就像建造一座工厂一样，你设计了一定的产能，然后需要一段时间才能真正达到这个产能。所以我想说，在试点工厂实现年化10亿千瓦时之前，可能需要大约一年的时间。而且这只是个试点工厂。实际的生产工厂可能会更接近2000亿千瓦时，或者随着时间的推移可能会更多。从长远来看，我们预计每年能够生产3000亿千瓦时，即3兆瓦时。我认为在2030年之前实现这一目标的机会很大。但我对我们能在2030年前完成这个目标非常有信心。
Welcome to Electrified. It's your host, Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my newest patron, Jim N. Thank you for choosing to support the channel.
欢迎来到电气化。我是您的主持人迪伦·卢米斯。特别感谢我的最新赞助者吉姆·N。谢谢您选择支持本频道。
With Elon's battery day claims in mind, today we got this from Tesla just built their 20 millionth 4680 cell at Giga Texas. That sounds great, but an arbitrary number doesn't really do us much good. So if we go back to June 16th this year, Tesla was at their 10 millionth 4680 cell also from Giga Texas. So let's do some math and try to contextualize what's going on here and what this means, how well is Tesla progressing.
考虑到埃隆在电池日的声明，特斯拉今天宣布他们在德州吉加工厂造出了第2000万个4680电池。听起来不错，但是一个任意的数字并不能帮助我们很多。所以，如果我们回到今年6月16日，特斯拉刚刚造出了他们的第1000万个4680电池，也是来自德州吉加工厂。那么让我们做一些数学计算，试着理解现在正在发生的事情，以及这意味着特斯拉的进展如何。
The time between these most recent two updates was 118 days or three months and 26 days for Tesla to make 10 million 4680 cells. Now, the only slight problem here is we really don't know definitively the breakdown of cell production in Austin, first at the pilot line in Cato Road. But I did check in with Jordan from the limiting factor. And we're going to go with these production milestones are from Austin alone for now, albeit without any official confirmation.
这两次最新更新之间的时间为118天，或者说是三个月零26天，特斯拉生产了1046.8万个4680电池。目前，唯一的小问题是，我们确切地不知道奥斯汀的电池生产情况，首先是卡托路上的试产线。不过，我确实跟限制因素团队的乔丹进行了核实。虽然没有官方确认，但我们现在将以奥斯汀独自完成这些生产里程碑为准。
We did cover the rumors that Cato Road was going to shut down for three months, possibly for upgrades. So there's a chance that Cato Road is not producing any 4680 cells right now. 10 million cells from Austin divided by 118 days is 84.7 thousand cells per day. If we multiply that by 365 days in a year, that would give us 30.9 million cells per year.
我们确实报道了关于Cato Road将关闭三个月，可能是为了升级的传闻。因此，Cato Road现在可能没有生产任何4680电池的可能性。奥斯汀的1000万个电池除以118天，平均每天产生84.7万个电池。如果我们将这个数值乘以一年365天，那么每年将会有3090万个电池产量。
Now, yes, I know there's downtime each year, but we're just looking for an estimated run rate. Then if we take that 30.9 million cells per year, that Tesla may be capable of producing at its current rate multiplied by 95 watt hours per cell, which would include the improvements that we just heard about on Tesla's quarter two call, that would give us 2.9 billion watt hours. And converting that, that's 2.9 gigawatt hours of an annual run rate, possibly from Gigatexis alone.
现在，我知道每年都有一些停工时间，但我们只是在寻找一个估计的生产速率。如果我们将特斯拉目前的产量30.9百万个电池每年乘以每个电池的95瓦时，这个数字将包括我们刚在特斯拉第二季度电话会议上听到的改进，那么我们将得到2.9亿瓦时。将其转换为吉瓦时，即可得到2.9吉瓦时的年产量速率，可能仅来自Gigatexis。
Converting that one more time, that's 2.9 million kilowatt hours divided by, let's just say 100 kilowatt hours for each Cybertruck pack, potentially, that would be in the neighborhood of enough cells for 29,000 Cybertrucks per year. However, we have to keep in mind, that's not including any of the growth rates that are built into this ramp.
经过再次转换计算，那就是290万千瓦时除以每个“赛博卡车”的电池组容量，假设是100千瓦时，那么潜在地，这将有足够的电池组为每年生产2.9万辆“赛博卡车”。然而，我们必须牢记，这还不包括内部增长率在内的任何因素。
Right now, we could estimate Tesla's 4680 production is growing in the neighborhood of 20% per month. And yes, this would be a great sign that could confirm Tesla is making enough 4680 cells in Austin to be able to close the pilot line at Cato Road for up to three months to make those upgrades, potentially for the new Cybertruck. And given that we are not expecting any meaningful Tesla semi-production ramp for another year or so, Tesla seems to have more than enough 4680 production capacity to ramp the Cybertruck, and maybe even use some cells for certain Model Y variants as well.
现在，我们可以估计特斯拉的4680电池生产每个月大约增长20%。是的，这将是一个很好的迹象，可以确认特斯拉在奥斯汀生产足够的4680电池，以便关闭卡托路的试生产线长达三个月，进行升级，可能是为了新的Cybertruck。考虑到我们预计特斯拉的半挂车生产还需要大约一年左右才会有重大增长，特斯拉似乎有足够的4680电池生产能力来推动Cybertruck的发展，甚至可能为某些Model Y的变种使用一些电池。
Given that we're now about three years removed from Battery Day, yes, Tesla is still behind Elon's initial targets of that 10 gigawatt hour number that he was talking about just at Cato Road. Whereas now, if we took gigatexes being around three gigawatt hours of an annual run rate, even if Cato Road was at a similar level, overall, as a company, they would still be shy of that 10 gigawatt hour number per year. But honestly, is anybody really that surprised?
考虑到现在距离电池日已经过去了大约三年，是的，特斯拉在埃隆最初在卡托路上提及的10吉瓦时的目标方面仍然落后。即使卡托路的产量水平与吉升合约相当，如果以吉升为单位，年产量约为3吉瓦时，作为一家公司，特斯拉总体上仍然无法达到每年10吉瓦时的目标。但说实话，有人真的会感到惊讶吗？
You have to go back February 18th, 2022 when Tesla was celebrating their 1,04680 cell coming from the pilot line. Then after this, it was 16 months to get to the 10 million cells produced mark. And finally, it was just under four months for another 10 million cells, which, yes, is the beginning of an exponential ramp.
你需要回到2022年2月18日，那是特斯拉庆祝他们第1,04680个来自试验生产线的电池时刻。之后，经过16个月才达到了1,0000万个电池的生产里程碑。最后，在不到四个月的时间里，再生产了1,0000万个电池，这标志着指数级增长的开始。
So right now, I'm fairly confident in saying 4680 cells should not be a limiting factor, had tipped Jordan for the Cybertruck ramp. I was at a wedding this past weekend and the cell service there was non-existent, so we all had to connect to the public guess wifi. Now, I always recommend using a VPN, like Surfshark, the sponsor of this video, anytime you're using public wifi, but they can also be very useful at home as well.
现在，我相当有信心地说4680电池单元不应该是一个限制因素，我曾经预测Cybertruck将采用这种电池。上周末我参加了一场婚礼，那里没有手机信号，所以我们都必须连接到公共的猜测Wi-Fi上。现在，我总是建议在使用公共Wi-Fi时使用VPN，比如本视频的赞助商Surfshark，但它们在家中也非常有用。
Nowadays, a lot of the popular online services that we all use are using very advanced commercial tracking and AI to create super targeted advertising and others for more nefarious purposes. A VPN can protect you from some of that. Surfshark's clean web feature does a great job of blocking ads, trackers, and malware, making it much safer to use the internet even at home.
如今，我们所有人都使用的许多流行在线服务都在利用先进的商业追踪和人工智能来创建面向特定用户的超级精准广告，或者用于其他更邪恶的目的。使用虚拟私人网络（VPN）可以保护你免受其中一些威胁。Surfshark的洁净网功能非常出色，可以拦截广告、追踪器和恶意软件，使在家中上网更加安全可靠。
Surfshark is a breeze to set up on any of your devices, both iOS and Android Mac or PC. Surfshark is one of the only VPNs to offer one account for an unlimited number of devices. You can also make it look like your IP address is coming from a completely different country. This comes in handy if you want to stream a video that's only available in certain locations.
Surfshark在任何设备上的设置非常简单，无论是iOS和安卓手机、Mac还是PC。Surfshark是为无限数量的设备提供一个账号的仅有的几个VPN之一。您还可以假装自己的IP地址来自于完全不同的国家，这在您想要流媒体观看只在特定地区可用的视频时非常方便。
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你可以访问surfshark.deals.slash.electrified并使用我的代码electrified，即可额外免费获得三个月的服务。Surfshark还提供30天退款保证，所以你完全没有任何损失。链接在下方的描述中。
Another Tesla stock note from Morgan Stanley that hosted a bull bear lunch with investors and the sentiment around Tesla right now skews cautious. Many are wondering if Tesla can grow earnings at all next year. The impact of Dojo in AI is difficult to quantify and easy to ignore. Unanimous sentiment is that there is downside consensus earnings revision risk for the rest of this year.
摩根士丹利最近发布了一份关于特斯拉的研究报告，他们组织了一场与投资者的多空午餐会，在大家对特斯拉的情绪上更为谨慎。很多人都在纳闷，特斯拉明年是否能实现盈利增长。AI技术中的Dojo对产生的影响很难量化，也容易被忽视。大家一致认为，这一年剩下时间里特斯拉的盈利修正风险偏向下行共识。
On the Cybertruck, there's very little enthusiasm on Tesla's next model. And what do you know? Really not much interest in Dojo or Tesla's AI FSD efforts as it's hard to predict the event path and hard to measure any improvement from FSD 12. The general concern is that Tesla's approach to autonomy is risky with respect to relying on passive camera relative to other FSD efforts.
Cybertruck这款特斯拉的新车型并未引起太多热情。而且，很少有人对Dojo或特斯拉的AI自动驾驶系统的努力表现出浓厚的兴趣，因为很难预测事件路径，也很难衡量FSD 12的任何改进效果。人们普遍担心特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的方法相对于其他自动驾驶系统过于冒险，过分依赖被动摄像头技术。
It might sound crazy too, but this is all music to my ears because the longer that Wall Street sleeps on all of these huge things going on beneath the surface at Tesla, the longer we can buy shares at a discount for the long term. And of course, when all of these waves end up breaking and playing out, most likely how we think they're going to, it'll be that much sweeter to say yet again that Wall Street was terribly wrong.
这听起来可能有些疯狂，但对我来说，这都是我喜闻乐见的音乐，因为华尔街对特斯拉表面下正在发生的许多重大事情视而不见，我们就能更长时间以长期投资的折扣购买股票。当这些浪潮最终达到高潮并展开时，很可能与我们预计的一样，再次指出华尔街的错误将更加甜蜜。
Something to keep an eye on over in France, there are some new rules for which automakers are going to qualify for their subsidies. As of yesterday, automakers will have to submit their specs for their EVs to the French authorities and the hope that they can continue to benefit from subsidies. This new scoring system is likely to rule out most models built in Asia, even if they are some of the most widely sold EVs in France.
法国的一些新规定需要注意，这些规定决定了哪些汽车制造商有资格获得补贴。从昨天开始，汽车制造商必须向法国当局提交他们电动车的技术规格，并希望能够继续从补贴中受益。这个新的评分系统很可能会排除大部分在亚洲制造的车型，即使它们是法国销量最高的电动车。
And yes, we know that Tesla's Model Y and Model 3 are some of the best selling EVs in France and they're also built in China. So we'll see how this is going to shake out for Tesla. Car producers should get a response around December 15th and they can appeal any negative decision. And then of course today, the French finance ministry chimes in trying to bury the news. The ministry said, most electric cars made in Europe, but also some made in Asia will qualify for subsidies in France. We'll see.
是的，我们知道特斯拉的Model Y和Model 3是法国销量最好的电动车之一，它们也在中国生产。所以我们将看看这对特斯拉会产生什么影响。汽车制造商应该在12月15日左右获得回应，他们可以对任何负面决定提出上诉。当然，今天法国财政部也加入进来试图掩盖这则新闻。该部门表示，大部分在欧洲生产的电动车以及一些在亚洲生产的电动车将有资格在法国获得补贴。我们将拭目以待。
We have the robot report telling us that this company Pulse PULS has acquired Y-Firion, the wireless charging company from Tesla. Yes, this is the company that Tesla just bought only a few months ago. According to a source with knowledge of both of these acquisitions, Y-Firion's engineers will remain at Tesla. They are not included in the deal with Pulse.
我们有一份机器人报告告诉我们，这家公司 Pulse PULS 已经从特斯拉收购了无线充电公司 Y-Firion。是的，这就是特斯拉几个月前刚刚购买的那家公司。据知情人士透露，Y-Firion的工程师将继续留在特斯拉。他们不包括在与 Pulse 的交易中。
Y-Firion's engineering team has vast experience in high power wireless power transmission. Y-Firion's current product line will continue under the Y-Firion brand name for the immediate future. This now, all of the sudden looks like an IP and talent type of acquisition for Tesla. You buy the company, grab what you want, and then sell the shell in a way.
Y-Firion的工程团队在高功率无线能量传输方面拥有丰富经验。在可预见的未来，Y-Firion的现有产品线将继续以Y-Firion品牌名称推出。而现在，突然之间，这看起来更像是特斯拉为了获取知识产权和人才而进行的收购。你购买了这家公司，拿走你想要的，然后以某种方式出售公司空壳。
Last year, long before Tesla actually bought Y-Firion, they entered into a licensing deal with Y-Tricity for wireless charging intellectual property. I think plenty of folks out there thought this was definitely going to be for wireless charging for Tesla vehicles. It also really could have been more for factory purposes for robots in the factory, maybe optimists in the future, possibly for cars in the future as well.
去年，早在特斯拉真正收购Y-Firion之前，他们已经与Y-Tricity达成了无线充电知识产权的许可协议。我想很多人都认为这肯定是为了给特斯拉的车辆实现无线充电。但实际上，它可能更多地是为了工厂内的机器人使用，或者是为了未来乐观地可能也用于车辆充电。
But Y-Firion did talk a lot more about untethering robots to enable hands-free unattended factories. So we're being told that Tesla gets to keep the Y-Firion engineers at Tesla, and then I'm just speculating that maybe Tesla found a way to keep some of that company's IP as well.
但 Y-Firion更多地谈论了解放机器人以实现无需手动操作的工厂。因此，我们被告知特斯拉可以留下Y-Firion的工程师，然后我只是猜测特斯拉可能找到了一种方法来保留一些该公司的知识产权。
Tesla Hong Kong posted that Asia's first V4 supercharging location is now open at Lee Garden. They did site 250 kilowatt charging speeds, so still no significant difference for V4 performance yet. However, given Tesla has been testing these V4 installs over in Europe, the fact that this is now rolling out more broadly globally is of course a great sign.
特斯拉香港发布消息，亚洲首个V4 超级充电站已在利园开放。他们提到充电速度达到了250千瓦，所以V4性能方面尚未有显著差异。然而，考虑到特斯拉之前在欧洲进行了V4设备测试，现在开始在全球范围内更广泛地推出这项技术，当然是一个很好的迹象。
Last night we got the news that Tesla is now going to start offering official wraps for the Model 3 and Y, but there are a lot of requirements and little fine print that you should know about.
昨晚我们得知特斯拉现在将开始为Model 3和Y提供官方汽车贴膜，但是有很多要求和一些小细节，你应该了解一下。
First though, for the options, you have seven different colored PPF wraps. Glacier blue, forest green, satin rose gold, slip gray, satin ceramic white, satin stealth black, maybe my favorite, and crimson red. The cost for these colored wraps is either $7,500 or $8,000 more on that shortly.
首先，关于选项，你可以选择七种不同颜色的PPF包裹。有冰川蓝、森林绿、迷你玫瑰金、石板灰、绸缎陶瓷白、绸缎隐秘黑，还有我最喜欢的深红色。这些有色包裹的费用要么是7500美元，要么是8000美元，稍后会讲到更多细节。
You buy these wraps in the Tesla shop right through the Tesla app. It's a self-healing, urethane based film that protects the paint beneath from chips, scratches, and swirling.
您可以通过特斯拉应用程序在特斯拉店铺购买这些外包装。它是一种基于聚氨酯的自愈合薄膜，可保护底下的漆面免受划痕、划伤和旋转划痕的损害。
The purchase price includes the cost of materials and installation, but it's only at current participating Tesla service centers. They only have two listed and they're both in California. It's also only available for 2023 and newer Model 3 and Y vehicles, not available for the Model S or X.
购买价格包括材料和安装费用，但仅适用于当前特斯拉服务中心。目前只有两个特斯拉服务中心被列入，而且它们都位于加利福尼亚州。此外，此服务仅适用于2023年及之后推出的Model 3和Y车型，不适用于Model S或X车型。
Now, they do also have a clear wrap option available for $5,000 and maybe it's just my internet, but you can check yours. It's now not working for me, so maybe they're not going to offer this. I'm not sure.
现在，他们也有一个清晰包装的选择，售价为5000美元，可能只是我的网络问题，你可以检查一下你的。对我来说现在不起作用了，所以也许他们不打算提供这个选择。我不确定。
Tesla's FAQs said whether you buy the clear wraps or the color wraps, installation time will vary, and it may take five to seven business days from the time you drop off your vehicle. In the event you can access the clear wrap page, you will see either gloss or satin.
特斯拉的常见问题解答表示，无论您购买透明包覆还是彩色包覆，安装时间都会有所不同，可能需要从您交付车辆起的五到七个工作日。如果您能访问透明包覆页面，您将看到光泽或缎面两种选择。
Yes, your vehicle can be wrapped even if it's under a lease. No loaner vehicles will be offered while your vehicle is getting wrapped, and yes, door jams will be included for all of the color wraps, but not included for the clear wraps.
是的，即使您的车辆正在租赁中，也可以进行包裹。在您的车辆被包裹时，不会提供代用车，对于所有颜色的包裹，车门框将包含在内，但无法包含在透明包裹中。
A few words on the cost. One, if you're going to try to compare apples to apples, you have to compare the cost in California. If you're anywhere else around the world, it's already not going to be apples to apples. Right now, Tesla is only offering this in California.
几句话关于成本。第一，如果你想要进行苹果与苹果的比较，就必须将成本与加州进行比较。如果你在世界其他地方，那已经无法进行苹果与苹果的比较了。目前，特斯拉只在加州提供此服务。
Second, it appears Tesla is using a wet-based PPF or paint protection film, which has protection first in mind. Some people out there may be comparing with a vinyl wrap, which is a much cheaper material, and it's a lot easier to wrap.
第二，特斯拉似乎正在使用湿基PPF或漆面保护膜，这种材料注重保护功能。一些人可能会将其与乙烯基包覆进行比较，而乙烯基包覆是一种更便宜的材料，并且包覆起来更加容易。
The vinyl though is really just focused on aesthetics. It's not really focused at all on protection. It's also the colored PPF that can be harder to come by and has those self-healing properties, whereas vinyl does not.
塑胶薄膜注重的是美观，对保护并不太关注。而彩色的聚酯保护薄膜更难获得，具有自愈特性，而塑胶薄膜则没有这些特性。
And make sure you're including the door jam installation, so when you open the door of your Tesla, not only does the color transfer, but there's also protection there as well. I've read including the door jams can jack up the cost because sometimes you actually have to remove the door, and it's just a lot more laborious.
确保您包括门框安装，这样当您打开特斯拉的门时，不仅颜色能转移，而且还有保护作用。我了解到包括门框会增加成本，因为有时您实际上需要拆卸门，这会增加许多工作量。
So no, I'm not trying to argue this is somehow a screaming deal. I'm just trying to say that I think it's more in line with what you would get anywhere else than what some people are thinking.
所以，我不是想要争论这是一个非常划算的交易。我只是想说，我认为这比一些人想象中的更符合其他地方的价格水平。
So far, I have not been able to find anything about an official warranty from Tesla for these wraps, but that's also something to keep in mind.
到目前为止，我还没有找到关于特斯拉对这些包覆件的官方保修事宜的任何信息，但这也是值得记住的事情。
And then yes, when it comes to the Cybertruck, this would be a great sign that maybe Tesla is doing a trial run with this entire process. If they can do it successfully on the three and why, doing the Cybertruck should be a breeze.
而且，当涉及到Cybertruck时，这将是一个很好的迹象，也许特斯拉正在对整个过程进行试运行。如果他们能够在Model 3和Model Y上成功实施，制造Cybertruck应该就小菜一碟了。
Speaking of what's that we have here from Tesla Scope, who I just said I think has a source at Tesla, they said Tesla will offer a Cybertruck wrap service with multiple choices within six months of the first customer deliveries. No price confirmations yet, but it's expected to be eight to $12,000.
说起我们在特斯拉的望远镜中发现的，我刚才说过我认为他们在特斯拉有消息来源的人，他们表示特斯拉将在首批交付给顾客后的六个月内提供Cybertruck的车身包覆服务，提供多种选择。尚未确认价格，但预计在8,000至12,000美元之间。
For now, this is still a rumor, but given this Model 3 and why news, this seems pretty likely. This is certainly one way to keep the paint shop to a minimum, which is typically a huge part of the manufacturing expense.
目前，这只是一个谣言，但考虑到Model 3和媒体报道，这似乎相当有可能。这确实是一种将喷漆工作尽量减少的方法，而喷漆通常是制造成本的重要组成部分。
Let's hear it though, what do you guys think? Elon has said that all Tesla superchargers in Israel are free, not sure how long electricity will be available over there, but a classy move nonetheless.
让我们听听大家的意见吧。伊隆曾表示以色列所有的特斯拉超级充电站都是免费的，虽然不确定电力在那里能够保持多久，但这无疑是一个高雅的举措。
I thought this was such a great chart and a great reminder from James Stevenson. When everybody talks about Tesla's 50% growth rate, they really just go back to last year, do the times 1.5 and see if they're on track, but that's not how we should be doing it. Because Tesla told us over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.
我认为这是詹姆斯·史蒂文森的一张很棒的图表，也是一个很好的提醒。当大家都在讨论特斯拉的50%增长率时，他们实际上只是回顾去年的数据，将其乘以1.5，看看是否达到目标，但这并不是我们应该采取的方式。因为特斯拉告诉我们，在未来几年内，他们预计车辆交付量将实现50%的平均年增长率。
So what we need to do is start in 2020 and then the red number would be that hypothetical 50% growth rate. And the bars on this chart are what Tesla is actually doing each year and the most recent one is going to be quarter three, the trailing 12 months.
所以我们需要做的是从2020年开始，然后红色数字将是假设的50%增长率。图表上的条形表示特斯拉实际每年的业绩，最近的是第三季度，即过去12个月的业绩。
As you can see, doing this math as we're supposed to, Tesla has been ahead of this pace for every year and with one quarter left to get the full number for 2023, Tesla is already ahead of schedule. Tesla only needs to do 1.68 million cars sold this year to be ahead of that 50% average annual guidance starting from 2020. You should think about screenshotting this one because it comes up all the time and most people get it totally wrong.
正如你所看到的，按照我们应该做的数学计算，特斯拉在每一年都超过了这个步伐，并且在2023年还剩下一个季度的情况下，特斯拉已经超出了计划进度。特斯拉今年只需要销售168万辆汽车就能超过从2020年开始的平均年增长率50%的指导。你应该考虑截屏保存这个信息，因为它经常出现，而大多数人都完全弄错了。
Sticking with sales, we got the export and domestic sales breakdown for Tesla China in September, 43.5 thousand EVs sold domestically. Listen, I just need to say it, anybody that's still doing year over year comparisons and then running with that percentage trying to spin a narrative has no idea what they're talking about, because now all of our year over year comparisons are going to be skewed because Tesla has been focused on unwinding this delivery wave. Look at quarter three last year for Tesla's domestic deliveries. In the first month of the quarter, they did 8.4 thousand and the third month they did 77.6 thousand. And looking at quarter three this year, it's a much more even distribution when looking at month to month. So whether it's a bear trying to spin a number or I bet a bunch of bulls would try to spin this number about exports being way up, it's just ridiculous and terrible analysis.
坚持销售方面，我们得到了特斯拉中国九月份出口和国内销售的具体情况，国内销售的电动车数量为43.5万辆。听着，我只想说，那些仍然进行年度比较并以此百分比来编造故事的人根本不知道他们在说什么，因为现在我们所有的年度比较都会受到特斯拉解决交付高峰的影响。看看去年第三季度特斯拉在国内的交付情况。在第一个月份，他们交付了8.4万辆，而在第三个月份他们交付了77.6万辆。而今年第三季度的情况更为均衡，可以逐月查看。因此，无论是空头想歪曲一个数字，还是我敢打赌还有一大批看涨的人想歪曲这个出口大幅增长的数字，这种分析都是荒谬和可怕的。
Further than that, of this 43.5 thousand domestic number, 41 thousand were Model Y. They only delivered about 2000 Model 3s for the entire month domestically in China. Given that globally, Tesla delivered 435 thousand vehicles in Q3. That means domestically in China, that market only represents about 32% of Tesla's global deliveries for the quarter. We should get the production number soon. And as Wu Wao said in his most recent video, all of the new Model 3 production in China is still only delivering overseas, meaning it's for the export market and there's no specific time for domestic deliveries. He said international roll on and roll off ships, row row, also appear frequently in the Shanghai South port. It's expected in the fourth quarter, Tesla will not only deliver the Model 3 refreshed edition in large scale, but also usher in a further increase in production capacity on the basis of the upgraded production line. So yes, Q3 is somewhat of a throwaway quarter for extrapolation purposes, but let's see what happens in quarter four.
在中国国内市场中，这43.5万辆中，有41万辆是Model Y。而对于整个月来说，他们在中国国内市场上只交付了大约2,000辆Model 3。全球范围内，特斯拉在第三季度交付了43.5万辆车。这意味着在中国国内市场上，该市场仅占特斯拉全球交付量的32%。我们很快会获得生产数量。 武 灵 龙 在他最近的视频中说，中国新的Model 3生产仍然只用于海外市场，没有特定的国内交付时间。他说，滚装船也经常在上海南港出现。预计在第四季度，特斯拉不仅将大规模交付Model 3改良版，还将在升级生产线的基础上进一步增加产能。所以说，第三季度在外推方面有点无所适从，但让我们看看第四季度会发生什么。
I'll admit, I'm a little skeptical of all these car awards nowadays, because the more you read, the more you realize there are very few unbiased sources out there. Either way though, for the Car Buyer Best Car Awards 2024 UK edition, the best company car went to the Model Y. Tesla has taken the car market by storm with incredible efficiency, fantastic tech and access to the all-conquering supercharger network. There's no better company car right now than the Model Y. Perhaps the biggest award though, the Car Buyer Car of the year went to BYD's Dolphin. It's really quite extraordinary how a brand you've never heard of, albeit one that sells millions of cars in its home market, can so drastically undercut the competition and still offer such a compelling package. The BYD Dolphin is not a cheap car, it's a great value car, there's a difference.
我得承认，现在对于这些汽车奖项，我有些怀疑，因为你越读越明白，很少有公正客观的信息来源。然而，对于2024年英国版的汽车买家最佳车型奖，最佳公司车的奖项颁给了Model Y。特斯拉以其高效率、惊人的科技和强大的超级充电网站，席卷了汽车市场。现在没有比Model Y更好的公司车了。然而，也许最大的奖项是由比亚迪的Dolphin获得的年度汽车购买者车型奖。令人非常惊讶的是，一个你从未听说过的品牌，尽管在其本土市场销售了数百万辆汽车，竟然能如此大幅度地压低竞争对手的价格，同时还提供如此具有吸引力的配置。比亚迪Dolphin并不是一辆廉价车，而是一辆具有很高性价比的车型，两者是有区别的。
Stellantis and Samsung are now talking about a second EV battery plant in Indiana. The two companies are investing more than $3.2 billion to build the new plant, which will open early 2027 and have an annual capacity of 34 gigawatt hours. This joint venture between these two companies is dubbed Star Plus Energy. The first EV factory from this Star Plus joint venture is in the same location, it's currently under construction scheduled to open 2025. In total, these two factories will have 67 gigawatt hours of annual capacity.
斯泰兰蒂斯（Stellantis）和三星（Samsung）目前正在讨论在印第安纳州建设第二座电动汽车电池工厂。这两家公司将投资超过32亿美元建造这座新工厂，预计于2027年初开启，并拥有年产能34吉瓦时。这个由这两家公司合资的项目被称为Star Plus Energy。首个由Star Plus合资企业建造的电动汽车工厂位于同一地点，目前正在建设中，计划2025年开业。总体而言，这两座工厂的年产能将达到67吉瓦时。
Let's drop in on the battery market for EV sales between January and August of this year. CATL and BYD make up 51% of the entire EV battery market. If there was ever one chart that encapsulated why the inflation reduction act, you could argue is necessary, I think this would be that chart.
让我们来看一下今年1月至8月间电动汽车销售电池市场的情况。宁德时代和比亚迪占据了整个电动汽车电池市场的51%。如果有一个图表能够完美说明为什么通胀减缓法是必要的，我觉得这就是那个图表。
It's now official, Ford and Hyundai are now both customers of the Gigapress Maker, Idra. A Gigapress 6100, which produces a clamping force over 6,000 tons with the Ford brand printed on it, has been assembled and was being tested in one of Idra's plants. And even bigger 9,000 ton press was also spotted testing nearby without a client's name on it, but a source spilled the tea and said that one was going to be shipped to Hyundai. However, a major disclaimer, they're saying both of these for Ford and Hyundai will initially be used only for R&D purposes. There's also an unnamed third automaker in Europe that's set to sign a supply contract for two 9,000 ton presses. Six Gigapresses are now emerging as the standard for an annual production of 500,000 vehicles. They're saying Idra has already shipped 14 presses to Tesla, including two 9,000 ones for the Cybertruck.
现在已经正式宣布，福特和现代现在都是Gigapress制造商Idra的客户。一台带有福特标志的Gigapress 6100已经组装完毕，并正在Idra的一家工厂进行测试。还有一台容量为9,000吨的更大的压力机也被发现正在附近进行测试，上面没有客户的名称，但有消息称将会被交付给现代。然而，有一个重要的免责声明，他们表示这两台压力机对于福特和现代最初只会用于研发目的。还有一个未透露名称的欧洲第三家汽车制造商拟签署供应合同，购买两台9,000吨的压力机。现在，每年生产50万辆汽车的标准已经是六台Gigapress。据称，Idra已经向特斯拉交付了14台压力机，其中包括两台用于Cybertruck的9,000吨压力机。
Look, I'm not expecting this to happen. I'm just saying there's a world where Ford, Hyundai, and the others struggle to get this past the R&D phase. Let's not forget, Tesla has its own special sauce when it comes to the material science and the custom alloy it's using for its Gigapress.
听着，我并不指望这种情况会发生。我只是在说，有可能存在着这样一种情况，福特、现代等汽车制造商在研发阶段遇到困难。我们不要忘记，特斯拉在材料科学和自家特制合金方面有独特的技术优势，这也是他们在Gigapress上使用的原因。
Just wanted to make it clear, this is not a situation where you buy one of these Gigapresses, you shoot some molten up in there, and you're off to the races. That's really not how it works.
只是想明确一下，这并不是你购买了其中一台Gigapress，然后将熔融物注入进去，就可以马上开始生产的情况。事实并不是这样的。
You may recall how we talked about the transferability and the direct pay for the investment tax credits and the production tax credits are game changers when it comes to clean energy. Before taking advantage of the ITC, you had to set up complicated tax equity joint venture partnerships between the developer and the tax equity buyer, which is usually a big bank. Basically, these were complicated and costly, so only really big projects could take advantage. But the new transferability provisions would allow developers to monetize the credits by selling them for cash without the need for complicated joint venture tax equity structures.
也许你还记得我们曾经谈到过可转让性，以及直接支付投资税收抵免和生产税收抵免对清洁能源来说是有很大影响的。在利用投资税收抵免之前，你必须与投资税收抵免购买方（通常是大银行）建立复杂的税务股权合作伙伴关系。基本上，这些都是复杂而昂贵的，因此只有真正大型的项目才能受益。但是新的可转让条款将允许开发商通过出售这些抵免来换取现金，而无需复杂的合作伙伴关系和税务股权结构。
Fast forward to now, and we have the first tax credit transfer claimed by this company EverGrow, and this situation should unlock billions. If the IRA legislation stays in place, this is potentially the beginning of a very huge deal that we'll hear very little about, but in the background, it's going to be spurring a lot of these green energy deals.
回到现在，我们有了这家名为EverGrow的公司首次申请的税收抵免转让，这种情况应该开启数十亿美元的机会。如果IRA法案继续有效，这可能是一个非常巨大的交易的开端，我们将很少听到其相关报道，但在背后，它将推动许多绿色能源交易的发展。
A lot of people out there are talking about this recent poll, they only conducted it with 1,025 adults between September 29th and October 1st. The results, 57% of respondents said they were not likely to buy an EV the next time they buy a car. So you can go ahead and try to spin that negatively, but it also leaves 43% that said they might or they're undecided. In the US, we're still sitting at about 7% of new car sales that are EVs, so 43% of these respondents, if that was extrapolated to the population at scale, is plenty enough demand for the next few years.
很多人正在谈论最近的一项调查，调查对象仅为1025名成年人，调查时间从9月29日到10月1日。结果显示，57%的受访者表示他们不太可能在下次购车时购买电动汽车。所以你可以试图将其解读为消极的，但还有43%的人表示他们可能购买或者尚未决定。在美国，电动汽车只占新车销量的约7%，所以如果将这43%的受访者的意愿推广到整个人口规模上，对未来几年来说，这已经是足够多的需求了。
I'll keep saying it, we just need more affordable options to choose from. Of those who said they would not buy an EV, 70% of those over age 65 would not, along with 60% of people that had an annual income below $50,000. It's good to hear what people outside of our echo chamber are saying, 70% of them were worried about the overall cost, 73 were concerned about range, 77%, lack of charging stations.
我会继续说，我们只需要更多的经济实惠选择。在那些表示不会购买电动汽车的人中，65岁以上的人中有70%不会购买，年收入低于5万美元的人中有60%不会购买。听到来自我们的回音室之外的人们的意见是好事，他们中有70%担心总体成本，73%担心续航里程，77%担心缺乏充电站。
Redwood Materials has created a new portal where you can go in, put in some information and get an instant offer for your end-of-life EV battery pack. Now right now, the portal is only for certified auto-dismantellers, but it's always cool to see the future being pushed ahead in real time.
Redwood Materials创建了一个新的门户，您可以在其中输入一些信息，即可获得您废弃的电动汽车电池组的即时报价。现在该门户仅面向持有认证的汽车拆解者，但能够实时见证未来的发展总是很酷的。
Don't forget, check out Surfshark linked below. Go grab those three free months, thanks in advance if you do. Also don't forget, no video from me Thursday or Friday, if you missed why, go see yesterday's video.
不要忘记，点击下方的链接查看Surfshark。如果你这么做了，请别忘了领取三个免费月份，提前先谢谢您。还有，请别忘记，周四和周五我没有上传视频。如果你不知道为什么，可以去看昨天的视频。
Hope you guys have a wonderful day, please like the video. If you did, you can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters. intern via filePOP.com.
希望你们今天过得愉快，请给这个视频点赞。如果你们喜欢的话，你们可以在下面的X链接里找到我，也非常感谢我在Patreon上的所有支持者。通过filePOP.com进行互联网实习。