Yahoo! Finance October 5, 2023

And you're exactly right, that's what's happening right now. So at the end of the day, at a high level, what matters is to buy and demand. And as we know, the US Treasury is basically going to issue 1.5 to $2 trillion worth of debt every year for the foreseeable future. And we've never issued that much ever consistently. So you got to look at what the demand is.

你说得对，这就是目前正在发生的事情。所以说，归根结底，重要的是购买和需求。我们知道，美国国库部基本上每年会发行1.5至2万亿美元的债务，而且在可预见的未来都会如此。我们之前从未连续发行过这么多债务。所以你必须关注需求是什么。

Now, demand doesn't look good, especially from those people we would traditionally think as buying. So until recently, the marginal buyer of Treasury debt was the Fed, obviously, doing NASA QE and the commercial banks actually, they were buying hundreds of boons of dollars. But then they all stepped away last year. So who was the marginal buyer after them? It was actually the hedge fund community. They were buying hundreds of boons of surgeries as part of a cash futures basis trade. And from my research, it looks like they're not buying anymore either.

现在，需求不容乐观，特别是那些我们传统上认为会购买的人。所以直到最近，国债的边际买家是联邦储备系统，他们显然通过NASA QE以及商业银行购买了数百亿美元的债券。但去年他们全部离场了。那么他们之后的边际买家是谁呢？实际上是对冲基金界。他们购买了数百亿美元的债券手术，作为现金期货基础交易的一部分。根据我的研究，看起来他们也不再购买了。

So who's going to step into this vacuum? And the problem is, I don't really think there is anyone. And that's why yields are drifting higher. Now, traditionally, as you know, we would think of people like pension funds or insurance companies that might potentially step in. After all, those guys have a lot of money and they like conservative investments, right? But when you actually look at the data, you'll see that they have never been very big investors in Trejories, even before the great financial crisis, when Treasury yields were pretty high.

那么谁会填补这个空白呢？问题是，我真的不认为有人会填补。这就是为什么收益率在上升。传统上，我们可能会考虑养老基金或保险公司这样的机构可能会介入。毕竟，这些机构有很多资金，并且喜欢保守的投资，对吧？但是当你真正查看数据时，你会发现他们从来没有在国债市场上投资很多，即使在金融危机之前，当时国债收益率相当高。

Those guys have actually preferred very different assets. If you are a pension fund, you actually strangely enough buy a lot of equities. Now, as we know, if you look at the public pension funds, they are seriously underfunded. And so I think they have been buying a lot of equities and private equities and alternative assets, not a lot of Trejories. The life ensures another big pool of potential buyers. They buy almost entirely fixed income, but not Trejories, very, very low Trejories. They buy a ton of corporate bonds. And I think the reason is that at corporate bonds, you know, we see Trejories, the 10-year goal up towards 5%. But if you're buying a corporate bond, you can get another 2% on top of that. It still always makes more sense by these spread products rather than Trejories. And that's what they do.

这些人实际上更倾向于非常不同的资产。如果你是一个养老基金，你实际上会非常奇怪地购买大量股票。现在，我们知道，公共养老金基金的资金严重不足。所以我认为他们一直在购买大量股票、私募股权和替代性资产，而不是很多国债。寿险公司是另一个潜在的大买家群体。他们几乎完全购买固定收益产品，但不是国债，非常非常少的国债。他们大量购买企业债券的原因是，我们看到国债的10年期收益率升至5%左右。但如果你购买企业债券，还可以获得额外2%的回报。购买这些利差产品而不是国债总是更有意义的。这就是他们的做法。

So I think we're in a very dangerous period, because I don't see any clear margin of buyers stepping up. And I think there's a really good chance that we would retire and maybe, maybe, get a spike higher like the repo market in 2019. So the implications of all of this, if I'm, you know, either a normal investor or just a normal consumer, you know, I'm already seeing higher mortgage rates, higher financing costs for, if I want to purchase a vehicle for everything, right? So what does this mean? What are the implications then if you don't have these buyers coming in to buy Trejories, what then is the ceiling for yields?

所以我认为我们处在一个非常危险的时期，因为我没有看到任何明显的买家接手的空间。我认为有很大的可能我们会退休，也许会有一个像2019年回购市场那样的高涨。所以，如果我是一个普通的投资者或者普通的消费者，这一切的影响是什么呢？我已经看到了房贷利率上升，购车等一切的融资成本也在上升，对吧？那么，如果没有这些买家来购买国债，那么利率的上限会是什么呢？

So I, so that's the question right now. I think what will happen. Well, first of all, the implications directly is that as yields go higher, that's going to be pretty negative for the economy and for the rest of the financial assets. Now, as yields go higher, we can think of as people maybe instead of buying cookies, maybe they'll buy some fixed income. And of course, as yields go higher, if you are someone buying a house, your mortgage rates are going to stay very high. If you're a company that eventually wants to refinance instead, you're going to have to pay higher rates too. So I think that's going to be a drag on the economy and eventually push us towards recession sometime in the second half of next year.

所以，现在的问题就是这个。我觉得会发生什么呢？首先，直接的影响是，随着收益率的上升，这对经济和其他金融资产来说都是非常不利的。当收益率上升时，人们可能会选择购买一些固定收益产品，而不是购买饼干之类的消费品。当然，随着收益率的上升，如果你是买房的人，你的抵押贷款利率也会保持很高。如果你是一家公司，想要重新融资的话，你也将不得不支付更高的利率。所以我认为这将对经济产生拖累，并最终在明年下半年推动我们走向衰退。

Honestly, I think yields top when the Fed steps in because there really is no other buyer available to buy all these coupon Trejories and other than the Fed. Now, you can have some big accident in the markets forcing a big risk off-play, but longer term speaking, I think the only the only game in town is the Fed as someone that is more active in the markets. Maybe something along the game along the lines of like the Bank of Japan. We're not there yet, but I think that is the ultimate end game for monetary policy here.

我的看法是，当美联储介入时，收益率会一鸣惊人，因为除了美联储之外，几乎没有其他买家能够购买所有这些优惠券型国债。尽管市场可能会发生重大事故，导致高风险投资减少，但从长远来看，我认为美联储是唯一一个在市场上更加积极的参与者。或许可以借鉴日本银行的模式。虽然我们还没有达到这一点，但我认为这是货币政策的最终目标。

So this is really interesting, Joseph. So what you're saying is it's not the yield stop going up when the Fed stops raising rates. That's been something that people talk about. It's when the Fed actually comes in and starts buying Trejories again? I believe so, yes. I think that so just, okay, so like I said, I look at things for the lens of supply and demand. And from my analysis, the demand is really maxed out at this point. But the supply is for all intents and purposes, infinite, because we have a significant fiscal deficit that only grows larger. So eventually, I think yields start topping out when there's more active involvement by the Fed, not by cutting rates, but actually being actually involved in the Treasury market as a buyer.

这真的很有趣，约瑟夫。你的意思是当美联储停止加息时，收益率并不会停止上涨。这是人们谈论的一个问题。而是当美联储实际开始再次购买国债时？是的，我相信是这样的。所以，就像我说过的，我从供求的角度来看待事物。从我的分析来看，目前需求已经达到了极限。但供应从本质上来说是无限的，因为我们有一个不断增长的财政赤字。因此，我认为当美联储更积极地介入国债市场时，收益率最终会达到顶峰，而不是通过降息来实现。

And so do you think then that the consensus at this stage seems to be indeed that the Fed's going to start cutting rates, maybe in the second half of next year, that's something that Dotplot has seemed to gesture at as well. You think it's more likely that they will come in and do this kind of action versus a straight-up cut or would they come sort of in tandem?

那么，你认为目前的共识似乎确实是美联储将开始降息，可能会在明年下半年，这也是点阵图所暗示的。你认为他们更有可能采取这种行动，而不是直接降息，还是会采取并行行动？

I think they'll view these two actions as separate. I think that when they go in, perhaps by Trejories or even stop quantitative timing, I think they will view it as more of a market functioning aspect. As in, there's some technical matter, maybe we have to go in and fix it and it will be okay. So much of what they did with the repo market in 2019, so repo rates spiked tremendously. And they added some facilities and added some liquidity and thought the problem would go away.

我认为他们会把这两个行动视为独立的。我认为当他们介入时，可能通过特雷约里斯甚至停止量化计时，他们会把它视为市场运作的一个方面。也就是说，有一些技术问题，可能我们需要介入并修复它，然后一切都会好起来。他们在2019年处理回购市场时做了很多工作，回购利率飙升得非常厉害。他们增加了一些设施和流动性，并认为问题会解决。

When they're actually adjusting the overnight rate, like you mentioned, that's changing the stance of monetary policy. I think they'll proceed that to be something separate. And yes, I agree that they will be cutting rates sometime next year as the economy slows and as inflation gets under control. But I would view purchases in the treasury markets as separate from changing the stance of monetary policy.

当他们真正调整隔夜利率时，就像你提到的那样，这就是在改变货币政策的立场。我认为他们会将这视为独立的事情。是的，我同意在经济放缓并且通胀得到控制时，他们将在明年削减利率。但我认为购买国债市场与改变货币政策的立场是两码事。