We're in the middle phases of the Tesla growth story, says Wedbush's Dan Ives - YouTube

Let's bring in Dan Ives, managing director of equity research with Wedbush security.

让我们请来丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives），韦德布什证券的股权研究总监。

It's great to see you.

见到你真是太好了。

It's great to be here.

很高兴能来到这里。

Very, very busy times.

非常非常忙碌的日子。

I mean it's you don't even know which piece of this to start with and you've been quite clear about how bad you think this strike is going to be for the big three if they get what they're demanding.

我的意思是，你甚至不知道从哪一点入手，你一直很清楚地表达了你对这次罢工对三大汽车公司的影响有多糟糕，如果他们得到他们要求的话。

Is there any way in which Tesla also comes out a loser here because its workers demand more it tries to unionize them or something to that effect.

特斯拉在这方面是否存在一种方式，即当它的员工要求更多并试图组织工会时，也会成为输家？

There's always been a fear of unions at Tesla.

在特斯拉，一直存在对工会的恐惧。

I just see that as basically minimal probability that's going to ever happen.

我只是认为这基本上是发生的最小可能性，将来也不太可能发生。

I think Tesla it's a win-win situation because when you look at the big three what's happening here it's a debacle in Detroit because ultimately this is going to be passed to the consumer when eventually they do get a deal and the EV strategy.

我认为特斯拉是一个双赢的局面，因为当你看看"三巨头"（指美国汽车制造商通用、福特和克莱斯勒）正在发生的情况时，底特律这里情况非常糟糕，最终当他们最终达成交易并执行电动车策略时，这个灾难会转嫁给消费者。

I mean this is a gut punch to borrow Farley what Dave built over the years and I think that's really the frustration right now in this Rubik's Cube where I believe the UAW deal if they took that it would essentially impair the business models for us in the next decade.

我的意思是，借用法利（Farley）的话来说，这是对戴夫多年来建立的东西的重创，我认为这是当前鲁比克魔方中的真正困惑之处，如果他们接受了美国汽车工人工会（UAW）的协议，那实际上将损害我们未来十年的业务模式。

For the big three that is it will impair the business model because it'll be forced to pay so much more to the workforce that they will not be able to invest in the conversion to electric vehicles.

对于这三大公司来说，这将损害其商业模式，因为他们将不得不支付更多的薪资给员工，从而无法投资于电动汽车的转型。

Exactly.

没错。

I mean if I look if they actually sign this deal I mean these these business models the street would basically view it as a ever-cycle uphill battle to ever be successful because it's ultimately one-hand tie-back on their back.

我的意思是，如果我看一看他们是否真正签署了这份协议，我的意思是，对于这些商业模式，街头基本上会将其视为一个永无止境的艰难斗争，因为最终这是他们自己给自己设下的无谓限制。

They're going against non-union Tesla non-union Rivian foreign automakers and that's why right now Champagne on Ice has been for Tesla in terms of depending competition that's coming out of Detroit and that's why this UAW it's a nightmare on Elm Street in terms of what's happened Detroit.

他们正在与非工会的特斯拉、非工会的Rivian外国汽车制造商对抗，这就是为什么特斯拉正面临来自底特律各种竞争的巨大压力，这也是底特律所发生的联合汽车工人工会问题的一个噩梦。

Why is it that Tesla's demand has been so soft is it simply that they've overproduced and they can't cut prices enough because there's just no pent-up demand additionally for EVs and there's not another but why is it that those delivery numbers and that they have so much excess inventory right now how long is it going to take for that to be absorbed.

为什么特斯拉的需求如此疲软？难道仅仅是因为他们生产过剩，而无法通过降价来消化多余的库存，因为电动车领域没有累积需求吗？另外，为什么交付数量如此之多，而他们现在有如此多的库存，需要多久才能将其消化掉？

So we think it's really fourth quarter.

我们认为现在真的是第四季度了。

I mean if I look overall take a step back if you look at 1.8 million what I believe is going to be delivered for the year that's a super strong number relative to the environment I think margins trough and Phil's talked about that as well Q4 I think you have Cybertruck that stars production a refresher model three and I think in China they actually start to gain more share that's why in our view this is more of what I've used a pause into the next phase of the Tesla growth story which is why we've been telling our investors here you continue to own this name how did they go from not being able a year ago not being able to meet demand to this the situation where they are right now

我的意思是，如果我从整体角度观察，退一步来看，如果你看看今年1.8百万辆的交付量，相对于目前的环境来说，这是一个非常强劲的数字。我认为利润已经达到了底部，Phil也谈到过这一点，四季度我们有Cybertruck开始生产，还有一个更新的Model 3，我认为在中国他们实际上开始获得更多的市场份额，这就是为什么在我们看来，这更像是特斯拉增长故事的一个暂停，进入下一个阶段的原因，所以我们一直在告诉我们的投资者们，继续持有这个股票。他们是如何从一年前无法满足需求的状态转变到现在的情况的呢？

yeah I mean demand definitely softly seen that in China in terms of central price where that's happened in China but I believe the poker move of cutting prices that was the right thing I think we've seen it in the stock in terms of stimulating demand for Tesla but no doubt they are definitely going through a transition in terms of what we're seeing with demand in the US globally but if you look at scale and where that we believe they could get to production we're gonna be looking at next year or two or come and ask me 2.5 million ultimately in the 3 million what they're gonna see from a delivery as well as a production I think this is just higher in my opinion this is just what I'll call the middle phases of the next phase of the Tesla growth story taking place

是的，我是说需求在中国肯定是轻柔地出现的，尤其是在中心价格方面，在中国发生过这种情况，但我相信削减价格的举措是正确的，我认为我们已经在股市上看到了对特斯拉需求的刺激，但毫无疑问，他们正在经历需求方面的转变，无论是在美国还是全球范围内，但是如果你看到他们可能实现的生产规模，我们将会在明年或后年看到他们的交付和生产量达到最终目标250万辆和300万辆，这仅仅是在我看来，这只是特斯拉增长故事下一个阶段的中间阶段。

I wonder though about competing with BYD I mean I there they have more models they have they update them more quickly they have more colors you know it's already Chinese models are like some of the top selling vehicles in Europe already they also have what's the smaller one the four letters any there's it's not just BYD which is formidable but there's other Chinese automakers as well and you read about these these are not like you know low cost cheap businesses BYD is like it's like the Japan of the 2020s in terms of the impact that Japanese automakers had on the market back then so you do wonder if Tesla even having an advantage to the big three how does it not get undercut and if they keep the Chinese cars out of this market maybe it'll be fine but how does it not get undercut this is an arm series I mean this is a game and throwing that's going on and see what happened trying I've seen it firsthand BYD, Neo, Xping and others I mean some of the best EVs out there

我对与比亚迪竞争感到好奇。我的意思是，他们拥有更多款车型，更新更快，颜色也更多。你知道，中国车型已经成为欧洲畅销车型之一。还有另外一个名字是四个字母的小型车型，不仅比亚迪这个对手强大，还有其他中国汽车制造商。你读到关于它们的新闻，它们不像那些低成本的廉价企业。比亚迪就像是2020年代的日本，就像当年日本汽车制造商对市场的影响一样。所以你会想，即使特斯拉对于这三巨头有优势，它如何不被低价竞争所击败呢？如果他们不让中国车进入这个市场，也许就不会有问题。不过，这是一场纷争和角逐的游戏，我们可以拭目以待，看看会发生什么。我亲眼见过比亚迪、蔚来、小鹏和其他一些最好的电动汽车。

I think where Tesla has been so successful because of their ability to expand gig in terms of Shanghai what they've been able to do from a price perspective and the Chinese consumer especially on the high-end or rise in middle class they do want Teslas but to your point do Chinese EV vehicles come here. into the US ultimately that actually becomes the issue because that's going to be what do you think will happen I if you have a second Trump administration there will be presumably tariffs or protections against the importation of Chinese vehicles I would guess I don't know they're still on him from his first administration well you know they're still they're still on it I think what's happening right now of course happened out of the ballet Detroit Big Three I mean it's been got purchased from from UAW but now if you ultimately have Chinese EVs come in now would just add to the words I continue to see that as cement wall that does benefit Tesla benefits the Big Three but right now they're in that cage match with the UAW where in my opinion that's really the frustration that's building not just in the trip across the industry

我认为特斯拉之所以在上海取得如此成功，是因为他们在价格和中国消费者方面的扩张能力。特别是在高端市场和崛起的中产阶级中，人们渴望拥有特斯拉。但你的观点也提到了中国的电动车辆是否能进入美国市场，这实际上会成为一个问题，因为这将决定在特朗普再次执政时会发生什么。我猜测他可能会对中国车辆的进口实施关税或保护政策，但我不确定他是否还会继续这种做法。目前，底特律三巨头的境况正在发生变化，虽然他们从工会购买了中国 EV，但如果中国 EV 最终进入美国市场，将会加剧我持续看到的利益固化墙，这将有利于特斯拉和三巨头。但目前，他们正陷入与工会的激烈争斗中，我认为这是整个行业正在积蓄的挫折情绪。

it seems the one missing plank for Tesla would be if they had a model two or some kind of lower-cost mass market car that could compete against the Chinese or just make it more affordable for a lot of Americans who might be tempted to switch but that feels like it's just way off in the distance at this point

翻译：看起来，特斯拉缺少的一块拼图是他们是否拥有第二个型号或某种低成本大众市场车型，能够与中国竞争或让更多美国人承受得起，这样可能会吸引一些人转换品牌，但这似乎在目前还遥远得多。

I believe by the end of next year a sub 30k vehicle is introduced by Musk plus with Cybertruck and that's why I just view this isn't the early days even with supercharger and the sum of the parts this is not an auto company this is disruptive technology a company that's why and we're buying here despite what I'll call definitely nothing right home about type of 3Q delivery number all right Dan thanks for now we appreciate it Dan I've

相信在明年年底，马斯克会推出一款售价低于30,000美元的车辆，再加上Cybertruck，这就是为什么我认为这不再是早期阶段，即使有超级充电站和其他方面的一切，这不仅仅是一家汽车公司，而是一家具有颠覆性技术的公司，这就是为什么我们在这里购买的原因。尽管在交付数量方面第三季度没有什么值得称赞的，但我们还是选择购买。好了，谢谢Dan，我们非常感谢。