Tesla Just Released Q3 Delivery Report

Hey everybody Rob Maurer here, welcome back to Tesla Daily, welcome to Q4. Today we're actually talking about Q3 still as we did just get the release for the Q3 delivery and production report from Tesla. So we'll go through the results here and just talk about the impact of the results this morning.

大家好，我是罗布·莫尔尔，欢迎回到《特斯拉每日》，也欢迎来到第四季度。今天我们实际上还要讨论第三季度，因为我们刚刚收到了特斯拉的第三季度交付和生产报告。所以我们将浏览这里的结果，并讨论今天早上这些结果的影响。

Alright, so looking at the release from Tesla, we'll hop down to production and deliveries. Tesla production came in at 430,488 vehicles in total, deliveries slightly ahead of that, 435,059 vehicles. So production, pretty much in line with my expectations, deliveries a little bit lower and pretty significantly lower than analyst expectations right around, let's see, make sure I don't miss quote with the consensus here. And also consensus was 454,809, my estimate was around 444,445,000, so coming in lower than both of those expectations, but again a little bit higher than production.

好的，那么从特斯拉发布的数据来看，我们来看一下产量和交付情况。特斯拉的产量总共达到了430,488辆汽车，交付数量略高于此，为435,059辆汽车。所以产量基本符合我的预期，交付数量略低，而且相比分析师的预期也显著偏低，接近约455,000辆的共识。至于我的预估则大约为444,445,000辆，所以双方预期都比较高，但是交付数量还是高于产量。

As we had talked about with consensus, my view or my opinion at the time was that the actual expectations were probably a little bit lower than the sort of whisper number or true expectations. As we saw a lot of analysts updated numbers and brought them down towards the end of the quarter, not every single analyst is going to do that though, and that was a reflection of the downtime that we knew about at Kigashang High for the Highland Transition and what we saw in Texas. So anyone that didn't update prior to that may have still had extra production included for that and therefore potentially extra deliveries. So we'll talk more about those in a second, we'll hop into Excel, just a couple of other things to note with this release though.

正如我们之前达成共识讨论的那样，我当时的观点或意见是，实际预期可能要低于传闻中的预期。在季末，我们看到很多分析师调整了他们的数字，并向下修正预期。尽管并非每个分析师都会这样做，但这反映出我们在基加山高地转型和德克萨斯州所见到的停产情况。因此，那些在那之前没有更新的人可能仍然将额外的产量计入其中，从而可能有额外的交付。接下来我们会在Excel中详细讨论这些问题，只是请注意这份声明中还有一些其他事项。

Tesla did say, you know, sequential decline in volumes caused by planned downtime for factory upgrades as discussed on the Q2 earnings call. They also say that their 2023 volume target of around 1.8 million vehicles remains unchanged. It says around 1.8 million, it would be nice at that set above 1.8 million, but nevertheless somewhere around 1.8 million. So a little bit softer language there that could be interpreted by some in that way, doesn't necessarily mean that, but could be interpreted that way. And then finally, Tesla is going to post the third quarter results after market close on Wednesday, October 18th. That is when I would have expected it. A lot of times people will say that that is early, but that's pretty much the calendar it's fallen on. Though I wouldn't have been too surprised if it was a little bit later. Obviously, we've got the CFO transition happening right now, but nevertheless Tesla kind of sticking with that normal schedule. So we'll get Q2 or sorry, Q3 earnings in just over two weeks from now.

特斯拉确实说过，你知道的，由于计划停产进行工厂升级而导致的产量连续下降，就像在二季度收益电话中讨论的那样。他们还说，他们在2023年的产量目标约为180万辆的计划保持不变。他们说的约180万辆，如果能超过180万辆就更好了，但总之大约在180万辆左右。所以有一点温和的措辞，一些人可能会这样解读，这并不一定意味着那样，但确实可以这样解释。最后，特斯拉将在10月18日星期三的市场收盘后发布第三季度业绩报告。这个时间也是我预期的时间。很多时候人们会说这是早了，但基本上是按照日历来的。虽然如果稍晚一点我也不会太惊讶。显然，我们现在正在发生首席财务官岗位的变动，但不管怎样，特斯拉仍然坚持正常的时间表。所以再过两个多星期我们将获得第三季度的业绩报告。

Let's just quickly look at the stock, see what the reaction is. I'm guessing probably not great so far. Yeah, so down 4%. No surprise with that, missing, I think, both the analyst consensus, but then also the whisper number would seem to be more in line with the 445-ish. That was kind of where I ended up. But nevertheless, a miss of kind of broader expectations, I think, being reflected in the share price right now. As we can see, the futures are down a little bit and the general markets too, probably not helping, but probably not going to be the best trading day for Tesla today.

让我们快速看一下股票，看看市场的反应如何。我猜可能不太好。是的，下跌了4%。这一点并不意外，因为我想错过了分析师的共识，但也没有达到预期的445点左右的预期数。那是我最后的结论。但不管怎样，我认为错过了更广泛的预期，在股价上得以反映。正如我们所看到的，期货稍稍下跌，一般市场也不太好，这可能对特斯拉今天的交易日并不有利。

All right, let's hop over to Excel and we can put this in context, which is obviously always the most important thing. Give me one second on that. I've got deliveries up, but let's start with production. So as we can see, my production estimate, which is the one that I spend more time on and care more about as I know beforehand, pretty close within about 500 vehicles, I think 574 difference here. There is a pretty significant difference though and kind of where this happens, at least between the S and the X. So I didn't mention that specifically before, but for Model S and Model X, production was 13,488 deliveries were 15,985. So both of those numbers are going to be down sequentially quarter over quarter production pretty significantly. So if I flip back, and I know I'm excel, so I'll for you guys, but let me just flip back quickly and look at huge numbers specifically for us and X. That was 19,500 for production 19,200 for deliveries. So again, a pretty significant sequential decline for us and X, and we did have the significant price cuts for us next this quarter as well.

好的，让我们转移到Excel上，然后我们可以将这个放入背景中，这显然是最重要的事情。让我稍等一下。我已经打开交付数据，请我们从生产数据开始。我们可以看到，我的生产估计是我花更多时间和关心的，因为我事先知道的，与实际情况相差不大，大约在500辆左右，我想这里的差异是574辆。不过，这里有一个相当大的差异，主要出现在Model S和Model X之间。所以我之前没有特别提到，但是Model S和Model X的生产量分别为13,488辆，交付量为15,985辆。所以这两个数字都会出现相当大的季度环比下降。所以如果我回头看一下数据，并且我知道我在Excel上，所以我会给你们看，但是让我快速回头看一下我们的S和X的具体数据。生产量为19,500辆，交付量为19,200辆。所以我们的S和X也出现了相当大的季度环比下降，而且本季度我们还对S和X进行了相当大的价格下调。

So not the strongest reflection, that part of the business, but that obviously then means that the Model 3 and Model Y exceeded what I had forecast in here for production.

这部分业务并不是最强的反映，但显然这意味着Model 3和Model Y的生产超过了我在这里的预测。

All right, so we can see the total number there. I'll update that in a second, but let's just get this corrected here, because again, that's a pretty decent difference. So if we do that, that means that there is again, increased production from other areas. Maybe that's coming from Berlin or Texas Shanghai. Again, we don't know all these numbers yet. We should get the Shanghai production numbers for October, or for sorry, for September and about a week.

好的，所以我们可以看到那里的总量。我立刻会更新一下，但我们先来纠正这个，因为这是一个相当大的差异。因此，如果我们这样做，那意味着其他地区的生产又增加了。也许这是来自柏林、德克萨斯或上海的贡献。我们还不知道所有这些数字。大约一周后，我们应该能够获得9月份上海的生产数据。

So we'll keep it out for those. But in the meantime, I'm just going to add these back to Fremont. You can see that, you know, based on just my estimates here. Let's see. I had expected a Model 3 decline in Fremont. Maybe we didn't see that happen, and maybe that's what's increasing the number. Maybe we had additional production out of Berlin or Texas or Shanghai. So we'll get a better idea of that pretty soon. But for now, let's just see what the difference here is.

所以我们会把这些数据排除在外。但与此同时，我将把这些数据再次添加到弗里蒙特。根据我的估计，你可以看到，我原本预计弗里蒙特的Model 3销量会下降。也许我们并没有看到这种情况发生，也许这就是增加数量的原因。也许我们在柏林、德克萨斯或上海有额外的产量。所以我们很快就会对此有更清楚的了解。但现在，让我们先看看这里的差异。

And we'll net that out quick. And then we can also talk about deliveries here. So that's going to be. Let me just take away a couple hundred here. And we'll get everything to match. Alright, so there we can see our actual. Again, we'll try to sort out better between the factories a little bit later on. But Q3, down 10% quarter over quarter for production from the roughly 480,000 in Q2. Again, that's a result of the downtime that Tesla noted in the Q2 call, specifically at Shanghai. And at Texas, we're aware of significant downtime there, as we talked about in our sort of forecasting episode. And then Q3, still up 18% year over year.

我们会迅速抵消这部分。然后我们还可以在这里谈论交付情况。所以大概是这样的。让我扣除几百个。然后我们会使一切达到匹配。好了，这样我们就可以看到真实情况了。我们将在稍后更好地区分工厂。但是Q3与Q2相比，生产量下降了10％左右，约为48万辆。再次提到，这是特斯拉在Q2电话会议中提到的停产时间的结果，特别是在上海。我们知道德州也有显著的停产时间，正如我们在我们的预测集第一季中所提到的。然后Q3与去年同期相比，仍然增长了18％。

So last year Q3 was, you know, 366,000 or so. Obviously a little bit of turmoil in the numbers last year. You can see most of that happening in Q2. But even in early in Q3 last year, there was some shorter production or smaller production in July in Shanghai. But nevertheless, still an 18% increase year over year.

去年第三季度销量大约为36.6万辆，你知道的。显然，去年的销售数字有些动荡。你可以看到其中大部分发生在第二季度。但即使是去年第三季度初，上海的7月份产量也有所减少。但尽管如此，与去年同期相比，销量仍然增长了18%。

Alright, let's hop to deliveries now. We'll probably come back to production in a second, but let's just get the delivery number in here. So we'll second on that. Alright, so we're 435,059.

好的，现在让我们转向交付事务。我们可能一会儿还会回到生产部门，但现在先把交付数量记录下来。我们在这方面再次表示同意。好的，所以我们的交付数量是435,059。

Alright, so we can see that most interestingly, the change in inventory was about 4,500 vehicles, 4,600 vehicles, reduced inventory. So that still is going to leave Tesla with roughly 16 days of inventory.

好的，所以我们可以看到最有趣的是，库存的变化大约为4,500辆车，4,600辆车，库存减少。因此，特斯拉大约还剩下16天的库存量。

As we walked through the math on that, this is calculated based on the quarterly delivery number divided by 75. That is one day technically of inventory and then subtract what we had previously had disclosed of 16 days inventory last quarter times that same metric, leaving us with roughly 94,000 vehicles in stock or in inventory.

当我们对此进行数学计算时，这是基于每个季度的交付量除以75计算得出的。从技术上讲，这相当于一天的库存，然后减去我们上个季度已经披露过的16天的库存乘以同样的指标，这样我们大约还剩下94,000辆车存货或库存。

A lot of those are going to be in transit. Obviously, we're aware of ships with Highland Model 3 on them that are on their way to Europe right now. So stuff like that, showroom vehicles, and then if you just browse through US or European inventory, you can see that there are still some vehicles that are probably in your area that are available. So there's still inventory like that.

很多车辆正在运输途中。显然，我们知道一些装载了高地第三型的船只正在前往欧洲的途中。所以像展厅车辆这样的东西，然后如果你只是浏览一下美国或欧洲的库存，你会发现还有一些可能在你所在地区可用的车辆。所以还有这样的存货。

Now, I definitely would have liked to see a bigger draw down here because we can see that Tesla's got inventory. The 16 days or 95,000 have where you want to look at the inventory figure. This is still a higher inventory number than what Tesla has had for the last excluding last quarter, the trailing four quarters prior to that. So Tesla can operate on leader inventory. However, during this period, Tesla has also been transitioning to try to flatten the delivery wave and we have been seeing that with sort of the sequential schedules of when ships have departed Shanghai and kind of the flow of retail versus export that we see out of Shanghai, things like that.

现在，我肯定希望看到更大规模的库存下降，因为我们可以看出特斯拉有库存。16天或95,000辆是您应该注意库存数字的地方。这个库存数字仍然高于特斯拉在上个季度之前的过去四个连续季度的库存数字。因此，特斯拉可以经营领先的库存。然而，在这段期间，特斯拉也一直在进行过渡，试图平坦交付浪潮，我们已经看到了从上海出发的船只的顺序安排以及与出口和零售的流动有关的信息。

So that has been happening. But nevertheless, I think additional inventory here that probably Tesla could have had available to sell in greater quantities. So potentially, it's unclear exactly from these numbers how big of a sort of demand related issue or sales related issue it is versus inventory and allocation and things like that. But this number, I think, is going to at least put some concern out there that this was a little bit more constrained by demand than simply a result of the lower production number.

所以就是这样。但尽管如此，我认为特斯拉可能本可以有更多的库存可供销售。所以从这些数字来看，目前还不清楚这个需求问题或销售问题到底有多大程度上与库存和分配等因素相关。但我认为这个数字至少会引发一些担忧，认为这更多是由需求限制而不仅仅是生产量的结果。

Now, anytime you get more cars out there, that's going to help people want their specific configuration. They maybe want to buy it that same day. If that configuration isn't there in inventory and they're seeing it's going to be a month out, they may not want the vehicle or may not order it, things like that. So it does matter. Just the extent to which it matters is obviously a bit opaque.

现在，只要有更多的汽车上市，这将帮助人们更想要他们的特定配置。他们可能希望当天购买它。如果库存中没有这种配置，并且他们看到要等一个月，他们可能不想要这辆车，或者可能不选择订购它，诸如此类的情况。所以这确实很重要。只是重要程度显然有点模糊不清。

Nevertheless, I think that's going to be a bit of a concern for the market participants at least at this time. Obviously, we'll hear a bit more from that or on that from Tesla on the Q3 call. So sequential and year over year difference here. So down 7% sequentially. Again, that's versus down 10% for production. And then Q3 year over year, up 27% so last year, about 344,000. About 100,000 more vehicles, a little bit less than that this year. And again, 18% increase in production. So 27% increase in deliveries.

然而，我认为这至少目前将是市场参与者的一个小问题。显而易见，我们将从特斯拉的第三季度电话会议中听到更多关于这个问题的信息。所以这是顺序和同比的差别。顺序下降7％。与此相比，产量下降10％。而今年第三季度同比增长27％，即去年约为344,000辆，今年略多于这个数字约10万辆。产量增加18％，交付量增加27％。

All right, trying to think of what else we should discuss here. We'll take a look at the comments for a second. Trying to think of there's anything else major that we went through in terms of what to expect. So obviously, as we talked about with the delivery forecast episode, this quarter I think is a little bit less meaningful in terms of what we can extrapolate from here. Because of those production shutdowns, even product wise, we saw a major update to the Model 3.

好的，试着想一想我们还应该讨论什么。我们先看一下评论。试着想一想我们经历了还有什么其他重要问题需要讨论。显然，正如我们在交付预测一集中所讨论的那样，从这个季度我们能够推测出的内容可能稍微不那么有意义。因为由于生产停工，甚至从产品角度来看，我们看到Model 3有了重大更新。

So even if we are talking about, oh, there's like inventory, potentially inventory or demand concerns, which one other point that we definitely need to make on that too. But even if that's sort of the perception, Tesla had product updates. Even this weekend, we saw the Model Y, which I guess we can talk about. But even this weekend, we saw the Model Y and China be updated to include ambient lighting. They changed the wheels. But obviously with Model 3, significant updates, which is going to put some pressure on Model 3 sales, specifically in China and Europe where the update is being made. But then also here in the US, in North America, where obviously in today's day and age, we can see that those updates are going to be available. And see that those updates have been made. People are going to expect those to potentially come over and maybe withhold purchases until then.

所以，即使我们谈论的是潜在的库存或需求问题，还有另一个我们一定要提到的观点。但即使这种看法存在，特斯拉还是进行了产品更新。就在这个周末，我们看到了Model Y的更新，我想我们可以谈谈。但就在这个周末，我们看到了Model Y在中国进行了更新，增加了环境灯光。他们还换了轮毂。而且显然，Model 3也进行了重大更新，这将对中国和欧洲的Model 3销售施加一些压力，因为这些地区将进行更新。但同样在北美地区，尤其是在现如今，我们可以看到这些更新是可用的，并且已经进行了更新。人们可能会期望这些更新可能会到来，然后才会购买。

So things like that, obviously put some pressure on sales and inventory and things like that as well. And then the other thing that is critical to understand with inventory, critical dimension with inventory, although the inventory kind of stayed the same here, a little bit of a drawdown, this is still very, very, very, very low relative to other automakers. Generally, the norm in the industry is somewhere around probably like 10 weeks is historically what it's been. So maybe 70 days of inventory.

所以诸如此类的事情显然给销售和库存等方面带来了一定的压力。另外，关于库存，有一个非常关键的维度需要理解，虽然这里的库存有一点点下降，但与其他汽车制造商相比仍然非常非常非常非常低。通常情况下，行业的标准可能是大约10周，历史上一直如此。也就是可能有70天的库存量。

But that's been a little bit rockier with COVID and supply shortages and things like that. Maybe that numbers move down to, I don't know, 50 or something now. But obviously many multiples of the days of inventory that Tesla is generally sitting on. Certainly the discrepancy was really, really crazy before that shrunk a little bit largely due to the unwinding wave and I think just high interest rates and some of the price cutting many reverse Teslas had to do this year with demand, but still sitting on a much, much lower inventory number than most of their competition.

但由于covid和供应短缺等原因，情况有些艰难。也许现在这个数字会降到50左右吧，具体不确定。但显然，这个数字依然是特斯拉通常持有库存的好几倍。当然，在此之前这种差异真的非常非常大，但由于销售潮退去、高利率以及一些削价需求，这种差距稍稍缩小了一些。但相比大多数竞争对手，他们的库存数量仍然要低得多。

So it is important to keep that in mind, even if on a sequential basis, not much of a decline here, the inventory figure is still quite, quite low relative to other automakers. All right, I wish I had my water here, my mouth's a little dry this early in the morning. Trying to think if there's anything else mentioned on production. So we talked about Shanghai, we'll get that figure soon and that'll give us a little bit more insight into how the distribution is between these factories.

因此，重要的是牢记这一点，即使从连续角度来看，存货数量下降不多，在相对于其他汽车制造商而言，存货仍然非常非常低。好了，我希望我能在这里有我的水，早上还有点口渴。试图想想是否还提到了其他的生产问题。所以我们谈到了上海，我们很快就会得到那个数据，这将使我们对这些工厂之间的分配有更多的了解。

Again, for that forecast, I had not a lot of production for Model 3 and sort of just similar production for Model Y till the last couple of months, as we can kind of see there. I'll maybe cover in some of that up, but the numbers shouldn't be super far off of that. I wouldn't think, you know, it would be pretty unprecedented for a Model Y figure to be significantly higher than that. And Model 3, we know that the transition's happening. So anything significantly higher than that would also be surprising. So I would imagine the differences are probably more related to 3NY in Fremont, or Berlin in Texas, maybe just doing a little bit better than what I had forecast in here. Those are also pretty opaque because we don't get the kind of reports that we get out of Shanghai for these other factories. So we just kind of have to do our best guess at how the allocation splits between those two.

再说一次，对于那个预测来说，我对Model 3的产量并不多，而对于Model Y的产量则在最近几个月内有一些相似的产量，我们可以从这里看到一些。或许我在这方面掩盖了一些，但是数字应该不会差太远。我认为，Model Y的产量显著高于这个数字是相当罕见的。而且我们知道Model 3正在过渡中。所以任何显著高于这个数字的情况也会令人感到惊讶。所以我想，差异可能更多地与弗里蒙特的3NY或柏林的德克萨斯有关，可能比我在这里预测的要好一点。这些也相当模糊，因为我们无法得到像上海工厂那样的报告。所以我们只能尽力猜测这两者之间的分配比例。

Alright, SNX, so we talked a little bit about SNX. It is, I think it's a bit disappointing to see, you know, a much lower number here. If we go back the last few quarters, you know, you can see this is actually the lowest SNX production since then of 2021. They were kind of still ramping up at that point from the refresh, which you can see that was Q1 2021.

好的，SNX，所以我们简单谈了一下SNX。我认为看到这个较低的数字有点令人失望。如果我们回顾过去几个季度，你会发现这是自2021年以来SNX产量最低的时期。在当时，他们还在从刷新过程中逐渐增加产量，你可以看到那是在2021年第一季度。

So we're looking at this column here. You can see that the ramp up kind of went, you know, a couple thousand up to 10,000 up to about 15,000 up to about 20,000. And then kind of level off around 20,000, but now a significant drop. So, you know, maybe there were things going on with SNX too that caused Tesla to have a little bit of downtime there in Fremont for the SNX.

所以我们在看这一列。你可以看到上升的趋势，从几千上升到1万，然后到大约1.5万，再到大约2万。然后趋于稳定在2万左右，但现在有一个显著的下降。所以，你知道，可能是SNX的一些问题导致了特斯拉在弗里蒙特的一些停产时间。

But when you see that, and then you also see the significant price cuts where we saw, you know, around 17% price cuts on the SNX, then you have lower production on top of that. Not necessarily the best sign, but at least deliveries did outpace that production number on the SNX.

但当你看到这一点，然后你还看到我们看到的显著价格下调，你知道，SNX上约有17%的价格下调，然后再加上较低的产量。这并不一定是好的迹象，但至少交付量超过了SNX的生产数量。

And like I mentioned before, when you do have that lower number, that does mean that there's additional, you know, Model 3 and Model Y that were produced that weren't in my forecast, which is probably a better thing in terms of, you know, extrapolating from from here.

就像我之前提到的，当你有较低的数字时，这意味着有额外的 Model 3 和 Model Y 被生产出来了，而这些并没有在我的预测中考虑到，这在推断未来情况时可能是更好的一件事情。

Like I said, it's limited what we can do with that this quarter as we had an EQ for. You know, we don't necessarily know what Texas production rate is going to be after the Model Y downtime they've had. We don't necessarily know what Highland Model 3 production is going to be or what that ramp is going to look like. And those are probably the two most important figures for how we, you know, build production rates and production numbers for quarters from this point.

我之前说过，这个季度我们的行动受到了限制，因为我们经历了一次紧急情况（EQ）。你知道，我们并不确定得克萨斯的生产率在Model Y停产后会是多少。我们也不确定Highland Model 3的生产率会是多少，或者上升速度会是怎样的。而这两个数字可能是我们从现在开始为了生产率和产量构建季度计划时最重要的两个参考指标。

Alright, let me take a look through the comments. I appreciate you guys joining me here in the morning. Let's maybe take a quick look at the stock. Flip back. Just kind of see how the markets react in here. Again, expecting probably not great. Looks like we're getting a little bit of a bounce back, a couple dollars. So only down 3% right now, if that's the extent of it, which, you know, I'd be a little bit surprised if that is, but if that's the extent of it, you know, certainly would take that. You know, if you just use the consensus number, which is what the headlines are going to do and kind of create the perception of today. Let's see what that would be. Yeah, like 435. I don't look over my microphone. Yeah, so about, you know, four and a half percent difference between sort of the analyst consensus. Again, that's probably higher than reality, but about a four and a half percent difference there from consensus to the actual results.

好的，让我来看一下评论。我很感激大家今早加入我的直播。我们也许可以快速看一下股票情况。翻回来，看看市场的反应如何。再次强调，可能不太好。看起来我们正在回弹，增长了几美元。目前跌幅只有3%，如果就这样了，我会有点惊讶，但如果只是这样的话，我当然会接受。如果只看共识数字，这也是头条新闻所关注的，并且会制造今天的印象。我们来看看会是什么样。嗯，大约是435美元。我不会看超过我的麦克风。是的，大约有百分之四点五的差异，从分析师的共识到实际结果之间。

Alright, let's see. I'm just going to take a look through the comments, see if there's any good questions or callouts. Good point from Damon. Did any other car company that makes over a million vehicles a year grow this much year over year? I mean, BYD, maybe. They're probably right in that sort of a bucket. And they're probably actually growing faster than Tesla. Obviously got to separate out hybrids and battery electric from that. If you're talking just EVs, they're probably not there. Just off my recollection, but they are growing quite quickly. Other than that, they're probably not. Hi, interest rate. Yeah, that's obviously benefactor. That's going to be a factor for a while. Someone says Highland is literally being sold. Not sure what that's in reference to, but yeah, Highland is obviously starting deliveries now in Europe or shipping over to Europe. Delivers may be not necessarily started yet, but that'll happen soon. And then Tesla will, I think, probably, they'll do a little bit of a wave there. They've been unwinding it, but I think they'll do a little bit of a wave there with how they approach Highland deliveries shipping a bunch out to Europe. And then once those are ready to deliver, once they make it to the European ports and are ready to offload, they'll probably then sort of at that point flip over and start delivering to China so those are happening kind of at the same time.

好吧，让我看看。我只是要浏览一下评论，看看是否有好的问题或指责。丹宁提出了一个好观点。有哪个其他年产超过一百万辆汽车的汽车公司年复一年增长得这么快？我的意思是，比亚迪可能是这样的。他们可能正处于相同水平。他们的增长速度可能比特斯拉还要快。当然了，排除混合动力和纯电动汽车。如果只考虑电动汽车，他们可能达不到这个水平。仅凭我记忆，他们的增长速度相当快。除此之外，其他可能没有。嗨，利率。是的，那显然是一个因素。在低利率的情况下，这将是一个因素。有人说夏利正被出售。不确定这是指什么，但是是的，夏利显然正在开始在欧洲交付或者运往欧洲。交付可能尚未开始，但很快就会开始。然后特斯拉可能会在那个时候有一个小小的浪潮，也就是在处理夏利交付时，把一批汽车运往欧洲。一旦这些车辆准备好交付，一旦它们到达欧洲港口并准备卸货，它们可能会立即转到中国开始交付，这两者可能同时进行。

Alright, just reading through the comments here.

好的，我只是浏览一下这里的评论。

Alright, so a good point by someone on how much do we have left to get to sort of guidance for the year? I'll flip back to Excel and we can take a look at that. So year to date, right now we're sitting at 1.324. Hmm. I think that's right. Let's see that kind of, yeah, okay, that's right. I'm just a little slow in the morning.

好的，有人提了个好点子，我们还有多少需要得到今年的指导？我会切换回Excel，我们来看一下。截至到目前为止，我们目前达到了1.324。嗯，我认为是对的。让我再看看，嗯，没错。早上的时候我有点慢。

So 476,000 deliveries needed in Q4 to hit 1.8 million vehicles. So Tesla saying around there giving themselves again a little bit of flexibility if they come in a bit below that, but certainly I would think that that would be a number that would be accomplishable in the fourth quarter. I mean, you can look at Q2, obviously 466,000, and that was with inventory increasing pretty significantly.

所以需要在第四季度交付47.6万辆汽车，以达到180万辆目标。因此，特斯拉表示大约达到这个数字，为自己提供了一些灵活性，如果稍微低于这个数字，但我相信在第四季度这个目标是可以实现的。我是说，你可以看看第二季度，显然交付了46.6万辆，而库存也相当大幅增加。

So if you actually go over to production, you know, you got 400. Hmm, something. Oh, that's. sorry, a different version of the sheet. So Q2 production about 480,000 versus deliveries 466,000.

所以，如果你真的去到生产部门，你就会知道，这里有400。嗯，有点什么。哦，抱歉，这是一个不同版本的表格。所以第二季度的生产量约为48万，而交付量为46.6万。

So, you know, if Highland can ramp quickly, if there's not more downtime in Q4, then Tesla should pretty easily have enough vehicles produced plus in inventory, especially since that didn't change. That's actually since that didn't drain that far this quarter to be able to hit 476,000 and get to that 1.8 million. Plus, maybe we'll get some Cybertruck deliveries in there. Obviously not going to be a meaningful contributor, but we should now, since we're in Q4, hopefully this is the quarter for those first deliveries of Cybertruck.

所以你知道的，如果Highland能够快速增产，如果第四季度没有更多的停工时间，那么特斯拉应该很容易生产出足够数量的汽车，并且库存充足，尤其是因为这个情况没有改变。事实上，这个季度的流失量没有达到那么多，赶上了476,000辆并且达到了1.8百万辆。另外，也许我们会有一些Cybertruck的交付。显然这不会对销量有太大贡献，但是希望现在我们已经进入了第四季度，这个季度会有第一批Cybertruck的交付。

A couple of pieces of news, this will probably be the only episode for today unless there's, you know, some things significant later on today, but just a couple of pieces of news, obviously. I mentioned the sort of refresh or, you know, like micro update for the. That's probably diminishing it too much, but a little bit of an update for the Model Y in or out of Giga Shanghai. They've added the ambient lighting. They've also changed the wheels. Previously, they were, you know, the gray or silver color for the aero caps. Those are now black and dark gray. I think it's a much better look, personally. I've always kind of been. I apologize if people have these wheels and like them, but they've always perplexed me a bit. I think Tesla had them on the base Model Y to try to convince people to upgrade the wheels. Obviously that'll drive better margins. These ones, I think, look much, much better though. So exciting to see that. Although maybe not for margins if there's less upgrades, fewer upgrades, but nevertheless some changes there. I think the zero to sixty time also improved on the base version of the Model Y by maybe a second, which would be pretty significant, but I have to double check on that. And then on. I'm sorry, I don't have the news up here, but.

一些新闻，今天可能只有这一期了，除非有一些重要的事情在今天后面发生，但只是一些新闻，显然。我提到了一种刷新或微小更新的方式。这可能有点不准确，但为Model Y进行了一些更新，无论是在还是出了上海超级工厂。他们添加了环境灯光。他们还改变了车轮。以前，它们是灰色或银色的风阻轮盖。现在它们是黑色和深灰色的。我个人认为这样看起来好多了。我一直有点困惑这个。如果有人喜欢这些车轮，我向他们道歉，但是它们总是让我有点迷惑。我认为特斯拉在标准版Model Y上使用这些车轮是为了说服人们升级车轮。显然，这将带来更好的毛利润。不过，这些看起来好得多。所以很高兴看到这个。尽管如果升级较少，可能不利于毛利润，但在那里还是有一些变化的。我想基础版Model Y的零到六十英里的加速时间也有所提升，大约提升了一秒，这可能相当显著，但我需要再确认一下。之后。对不起，我没有这里的新闻。

And then on the Cyber Truck, there's also. The Peterson Museum has announced that they're going to be auctioning office cyber truck on October 7th. At this point, I have to assume that that means that they're going to actually deliver that vehicle much later, or, you know, later than October 7th. I think if Tesla was going to do a delivery event at this point before October 7th, we would probably know. You never know with Tesla, but I don't take that date as any sort of hard concrete date that we'll have more cyber truck information by. We certainly would love to, but I'm not taking it to necessarily mean that.

然后关于Cyber Truck，还有一件事。彼得森博物馆宣布他们将在10月7日拍卖一辆办公用Cyber Truck。从目前来看，我不得不假设这意味着他们实际上会在那之后交付这辆车，或者说比10月7日更晚。我认为如果特斯拉打算在10月7日之前举办交付活动，我们可能已经知道了。虽然特斯拉很难预测，但我并不认为这个日期是我们将获得更多Cyber Truck信息的具体日期。当然，我们当然希望能够，但我并不认为这意味着一定会有。

Alright, continuing to look through some comments. Someone asked when are the numbers coming out? They're out. I think that was a while ago, but. Alright, let me catch up. Inventory number of days are the same. Yep, so that's still 16 days. Final delivery number 435,000. Someone says, hey, click like, please. Yeah, I appreciate that. Thanks, Mark. Does help, help out? Alright, Winston, thank you. Appreciate that. Thanks for the support. Does anyone know which font he uses? Let me tell you, it's Calibri in this document. Not what I usually use, but.

好的，继续浏览一些评论。有人问什么时候发布数字数据？已经发布了。我想那是一段时间之前了，但是没关系。好的，让我赶上进度。库存天数是一样的，还是16天。最终出货数量是435,000。有人说，嘿，请点赞。是的，我感谢那个。谢谢你，马克。有帮助吗？好的，温斯顿，谢谢你。感谢支持的每一个人。有人知道他用的是哪种字体吗？让我告诉你，在这个文档中使用的是Calibri字体。不是我通常使用的，但是。

Alright. Well, I think that's about it for now. Just see what the stock is doing. Flip back. Yes, we're at 243, down 2.5%, 2.2.3%. Not too bad. Hopefully, it'll kind of hold up around there.

好吧，我想现在差不多就这样了。先看看股票的情况吧。快速翻回去。是的，我们目前在243点，下降2.5%，2.2.3%。还算不错。希望它能在那个水平上保持住。

And then again, if you missed it, just a couple of things, Tesla sort of reiterated, you know, 2023 volume target of around 1.8 million vehicles remains unchanged. So, you know, people probably criticize me for reading into that, but that's, you know, that's what analysts do. They're going to look at that and say that that's softer language, even though they say remains unchanged. You got to look at those things really closely with companies a lot of times. Whether or not it's intentional or not, you know, TBD, I do think the Q4 target of 476,000 deliveries is very achievable, depending on the high-land ramp. But, you know, it's just a little bit softer of language than it would be if it said, you know, above 1.8 million vehicles.

反过来说，如果你没有注意到的话，我再说几个事情，特斯拉重申了2023年大约180万辆汽车的销售目标没有变化。所以，你知道的，人们可能会批评我对此进行过度解读，但这就是分析师的做法。他们会仔细研究这些，即使他们说目标没有改变，你必须对公司的这些细节非常仔细地观察。无论这是否是有意为之，尚待商榷，我认为4季度目标达到47.6万辆交付是非常可行的，这取决于高地的产能提升。但是，相比于说销售超过180万辆汽车，它的措辞要略微温和一些。

And then the Q3 report, that'll be on Wednesday, October 18th. Again, some people will probably say that's early, that's not my opinion of it. That would be the normal schedule for Tesla.

然后Q3报告将于10月18日星期三发布。有些人可能会说这太早了，但这并非我的意见。这是特斯拉的正常计划安排。

All right, well, I hope everyone has a great day. Again, this will probably be the episode for today unless we get anything crazy during the day today. But that'll wrap it up, and we'll see you guys tomorrow. As always, thanks for listening. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And again, we'll see you tomorrow for the Tuesday, October 3rd episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，那么，希望大家今天过得愉快。再说一遍，除非今天白天发生什么疯狂的事情，否则这可能是今天的节目了。但这就是全部内容了，明天我们再见。感谢大家一直以来的收听。你也可以在特斯拉播客网站上找到我。再次感谢，明天我们将会见到你们，这是10月3日星期二的节目。谢谢。