Semi Engineer Reveals New Info / Toyota to "Leapfrog Tesla" / The F150 Lightning Situation ⚡️

A Welcome to Electrified. It's your host, Dylan Loomis, Cook Shoutout to my newest patrons, Charles D, Ron W and Carl S. Thank you for choosing to support the channel.

欢迎来到Electrified。我是你的主持人Dylan Loomis。感谢我的最新赞助者Charles D、Ron W和Carl S。谢谢你们选择支持这个频道。

The Peterson Auto Museum in Los Angeles, California is hosting its 29th Gala, October 7th from 6-10pm ticket price to start at $1,750. I'm telling you this because Gregor Truck reportedly got a message from the Peterson Museum saying that at this event, a Cybertruck will be one of the vehicles that will be auctioned off at the Gala. It'll be a low-ven unit, one of the first production Cybertrucks. So in case you're looking to spend upwards of $500,000 for one of the first Cybertrucks built, this event may be for you. And I'm sorry, but I am not going to take debate on speculating what this means if anything for actual Cybertruck customer deliveries, we'll just wait and see.

加州洛杉矶的彼得森汽车博物馆将于10月7日晚举办第29届晚会，时间为下午6点至晚上10点，门票价格从1750美元起。我告诉你这个消息是因为据报道，格雷戈尔卡车收到了来自彼得森博物馆的一条信息，说在这个活动上，Cybertruck将是其中一辆将在晚会上拍卖的车辆之一。它将是一辆低里程的单位，是首批生产的Cybertruck之一。所以如果你想花费50万美元以上购买其中一辆首批生产的Cybertruck，这个活动可能适合你。很抱歉，我不打算就此讨论对于实际的Cybertruck交付是否有任何含义进行推测，我们只能等待并观察。

In case you missed it this morning, we got Tesla's Q3 numbers, they produced 430.4,000 and delivered 435,000 vehicles for the quarter, coming in shy of Wall Street's expectations, which ended around 455,000. We've already talked about this all quarter, so I'm not going to dive in. This is not the quarter to do a deep dive for extrapolation of what this means for Tesla's future, given all of the factory shutdowns and upgrades. But I do want to highlight a few things. Number one, James Stevenson was only 59 cars off when it came to the delivery number, so James, well done, sir. Two, Tesla's days of inventory number still sits at 16 in line with quarter two, and for some context, most of the industry is sitting between 40 and 70 days of inventory, if not even over 100, so Tesla at 16 is still an awesome figure. Three, Tesla's year to date deliveries through quarter three now sit at 1.324 million, meaning to hit that 1.8 million number for the year. They need to deliver 476,000 in quarter four, which if the Model 3 Highland ramp goes well, they should be able to do.

如果你今天早上错过了这个消息，我们已经获得了特斯拉第三季度的数字，他们在这个季度生产了43.04万辆汽车并交付了43.5万辆，这低于华尔街的预期，预期在45.5万左右。我们已经在整个季度都在讨论这个问题，所以我不会深入讨论了。这个季度不适合深入挖掘这对特斯拉未来意味着什么，考虑到所有工厂停产和升级的情况。但我想强调几点。首先，詹姆斯·斯蒂文森只差59辆车，真是干得好。其次，特斯拉的存货天数仍保持在16天，与第二季度一致，而行业大部分存货天数在40到70天之间，甚至超过100天，所以特斯拉的16天仍然是一个了不起的数字。第三，截至第三季度，特斯拉年度交付量已达132.4万辆，这意味着要达到180万辆的年度交付目标，他们需要在第四季度交付476,000辆，如果Model 3 Highland产能提升顺利的话，他们应该能够做到。

99 times out of 100, I'll be the guy trying to shift everybody's focus back to the bigger picture, so with all of the factory shutdowns and upgrades, with interest rates where they're at, with Tesla dealing with the Osborne effect, given the Model 3 upgrades, and now a Model Y slight upgrade, there's going to be people waiting to see what Tesla's next move is. All of those factors together, we really should be expecting some lower sales figures for the time being. Despite all of those challenges, Tesla is still on track to hit its annual guidance for the year, so to me everything looks just fine.

99次中的99次，我都会是那个试图将大家的注意力重新转移到大局上的人，所以考虑到所有的工厂关闭和升级，利率的高低，特斯拉面临奥斯本效应，以及Model 3的升级，再加上Model Y的轻微升级，肯定会有人等待着看特斯拉的下一步行动。所有这些因素加在一起，我们应该预计短期内一些较低的销售数字。尽管面临所有这些挑战，特斯拉仍然按照年度指导目标稳步前进，所以对我来说一切看起来都很好。

We also got an interesting new Tesla stock note from Morgan Stanley. They said, we're hearing increasing feedback from fleet managers and franchise dealers on the downstream challenges of rapid EV adoption. We anticipate the rate of change of EV penetration may disappoint as investors, consumers, and regulators contemplate the hidden costs of diversification from a Chinese-dominated EV supply chain into a market where many players have yet to prove viability of the business model. Then they share some anecdotes from some industry executives on this EV transition.

我们还从摩根士丹利得到了一份有趣的特斯拉股票报告。报告中称，我们听到了来自车队管理人员和特许经销商的越来越多的反馈，他们对快速推广电动汽车所面临的后续挑战表示关注。我们预计，随着投资者、消费者和监管机构开始考虑从中国主导的电动汽车供应链向尚未证明商业模式的市场多元化带来的隐藏成本，电动汽车普及的速度可能会令人失望。然后他们分享了一些行业高管在电动汽车转型方面的一些趣闻轶事。

So, given these few anecdotes, Morgan Stanley is now pretty bearish, expecting 9% US EV penetration by 2025 and 25% by 2030, part of which is due to the current inability of EV players to manage the flow of repairs in a timely manner. A challenge Tesla has been dealing with for a decade, part of why they ended up launching Tesla insurance to close this loop and improve the process. Fancy that, insurance is apparently another hurdle for some in the industry, as we have dealers and other counter-parties talking about their problems with insurance companies when it comes to EV underwriting due to unpredictable and higher physical damage loss ratios.

所以，基于这些几个例子，摩根士丹利现在对电动汽车持非常悲观的态度，预计到2025年美国的电动汽车渗透率将达到9%，到2030年将达到25%。其中一部分原因是由于目前电动汽车制造商无法及时处理维修问题。特斯拉在过去十年中一直在努力解决这个问题，这也是他们推出特斯拉保险的原因之一，以解决这个问题并改善流程。有趣的是，保险显然也是该行业的另一个障碍，因为我们听到了一些经销商和其他相关方在电动汽车保险方面与保险公司存在的问题，这是由于无法预测的更高的实际损失比率。

And lastly, we have franchise dealers complaining about decelerating EV sales and rising inventories, despite more incentives, other issues, difficulty and permission for high-speed chargers, lack of train technicians, etc. Just want to highlight, if you're new to the story, these are all problems that Tesla again has been working on and solving for the past decade. So, even if the EV transition does slow over the next two years because of these hurdles, this in a way will actually only benefit Tesla because they will once again become one of the only EV makers actually producing compelling vehicles. Great for Tesla, not great for the EV transition at scale.

最后，我们还有一些特许经销商抱怨电动汽车销售放缓和库存增加，尽管有更多的激励措施，还有其他问题，如高速充电器的难度和许可问题，以及缺乏培训技术人员等等。只是想强调一下，如果你对这个故事还不了解，这些都是特斯拉过去十年来一直在努力解决的问题。因此，即使由于这些障碍，未来两年内电动汽车的转型速度放缓，这实际上只会有利于特斯拉，因为它们将再次成为为数不多真正生产引人注目电动汽车的厂商之一。对特斯拉来说是好事，但对于大规模的电动汽车转型来说并不是好事。

Given all of this, Morgan Stanley said yet again they expect EV spending by OEMs to slow down as they reshift their focus back to their profitable ice and or hybrid vehicles. AKA, the competition actually running away. I won't read this section to you so pause if you'd like, but here they talk about what I just said in a bit more detail, explaining how Tesla may find itself in a more dominant position when you layer in the impact of the IRA. You gotta love their very scientific EV penetration chart, more importantly though. They said we believe Tesla is uniquely positioned. to lead engineering and cost improvements that have yet to truly unlock the scale potential of the EV economy. Simply put, we're at a turning point for legacy automotive, they're now standing face to face with all of the challenges of making EVs at scale and they have to ask themselves the question do they push through and continue to lose money or do they tone it back, rely on their ice vehicles that are profitable and wait to see what happens with the market.

鉴于这一切，摩根士丹利再次表示预计原始设备制造商（OEM）的电动汽车（EV）出资将放缓，因为它们重新将重心放回盈利的内燃机和或混合动力车辆。也就是说，实际上是竞争对手在逃跑。如果你愿意，我不会给你朗读这一部分，但他们在这里更详细地讨论了我刚刚说的内容，并解释了当考虑到竞争者对立即退出体系的影响后，特斯拉可能会发现自身处于更为主导的地位。你得喜欢他们那非常科学的电动汽车渗透率图，但更重要的是，他们说我们相信特斯拉处于独特位置，领导工程和成本改进，这些改进尚未真正释放出电动汽车经济的规模潜力。简而言之，我们正处于传统汽车业的一个转折点，它们现在正面临制造大规模电动汽车的所有挑战，并不得不问自己一个问题：他们是否要坚持下去并继续亏钱，还是减少投入，依赖盈利的内燃机车辆，并等待市场的变化。

We got a pretty awesome new video from Jay Leno, Dan Priestley and Franz talking about the Tesla Semi. I'll just share a few of the main takeaways I had from the video. Dan Priestley said that the Tesla Semi will save on average $200,000 in fuel savings in the first three years of operation compared to a diesel truck. The Tesla Semi has a.4 co-efficient of drag which compared to traditional semi-trucks, they are.8 to.9. So the Tesla Semi more than twice as aerodynamic.

我们获得了来自杰伊·雷诺，丹·普利斯特利和弗兰兹的一段相当棒的新视频，讨论的是特斯拉卡车。我将分享一些我从视频中得到的主要观点。丹·普利斯特利说，与柴油卡车相比，特斯拉卡车在运营的前三年平均可节省20万美元的燃料费用。特斯拉卡车的空气动力学系数为0.4，而传统的半挂卡车为0.8至0.9。因此，特斯拉卡车的空气动力学性能是传统半挂卡车的两倍多。

The Tesla Semi is indeed rear wheel drive but there's more to it than you might think. In the industry, steer tires are more heavily regulated and you don't want to wear them out quickly, you cannot go down to as low of a tread depth with the tires. So by removing the torque aspect, making it rear wheel drive only, you can actually elongate the life of the steer tires which for the Tesla Semi are the ones in the front. Dan also said how the Tesla Semi would use many of the other parts from other Tesla vehicles like the Cybertruck which will help when it comes to economies of scale. One example, the Tesla Semi is using the same screens from the Model 3 and why. Dan also said when it comes to the automatic region levels on the Semi, you can adjust it simply by feathering the accelerator, never actually having to touch the brake.

特斯拉半挂车确实是后驱，但其中的情况比你想的还要多。在行业中，转向轮胎的监管要求更严格，你不希望它们很快就磨损，因此无法将轮胎的胎面厚度降低到很低。因此，通过去掉扭矩因素，使其只有后驱，实际上可以延长特斯拉半挂车的前轮胎寿命。丹还说，特斯拉半挂车将使用其他特斯拉车型（如Cybertruck）的许多零部件，这将有助于经济规模的增长。例如，特斯拉半挂车使用了Model 3相同的屏幕，并解释了原因。丹还表示，当涉及到半挂车的自动制动水平时，你可以通过轻踩油门来调整，实际上根本不需要触摸刹车。

Fun fact, the number one cost for workers comp is actually workers falling off the truck so Tesla spent extra time when they designed stepping in and getting out of the vehicle. The Tesla Semi does indeed have air suspension, there's still no public price but comparable to other electric heavy trucks, they are very comparable and they focused on having much lower operating costs. In this video, you're looking at Tesla's day cab which is for delivery routes or regional routes where the drivers go out and then end up back at the same hub every day. They did say however Tesla will do a sleeper cab eventually once the charger network is more established.

有趣的事实是，工人意外摔车实际上是劳工赔偿的第一大成本。因此特斯拉在设计进入和离开车辆时多花了些时间。特斯拉半挂车确实有气悬架，虽然还没有公布价格，但与其他电动重型卡车相比，它们非常相似，并且他们专注于降低运营成本。在这个视频中，你正在看特斯拉的送货车，用于派送路线或区域路线，司机每天出发然后返回相同的中心。不过他们确实表示，一旦充电网络更加完善，特斯拉将推出卧铺型车厢。

Right now, Tesla is using the Semi to haul battery packs from Reno to California as well as drivetrains and they're doing the exact same as what diesel trucks do, the same load, the same route, the same operation. So far, Tesla has made a few dozen, he said 60 to 70 so right now they're collecting data, getting driver feedback and then they're actually going to make some changes before entering volume production. When it comes to the braking system, they do use air brakes but it's a brake by wire system that they brought over from Europe which results in much smoother braking.

现在，特斯拉正在使用半挂卡车将电池组从雷诺运往加利福尼亚，同时还运输传动系统，他们所做的工作与柴油卡车完全相同，负载、路线和操作都一样。到目前为止，特斯拉已经生产了几十辆半挂卡车，他说大约有60到70辆，现在他们正在收集数据，听取驾驶员的反馈意见，然后在量产之前进行一些改动。至于制动系统，他们确实使用了气动制动，但是这是一种源自欧洲的制动线控系统，因此制动更加平稳。

As you can see, they had three people comfortably in Tesla's day cab in the Semi, they talked about how the seat reclines more than any traditional truck and of course you can precondition right from the app. In the future, Tesla will allow more software flexibility when it comes to full screen camera views for the user interface. Dan said the Tesla Semi's turning radius is the same as the Model 3 and Y which is pretty impressive, part of how they can do this given that there's no engine, it gives them a high degree of wheel cut and maneuverability. The Semi operates in the 800 to 1000 volt range but they do still use 12 volt and 24 volt brake systems, however, they are considering 48 volts for their next-gen Semi.

正如你所看到的，他们在特斯拉卡车的驾驶室里舒适地坐着三个人，他们谈论了座椅的倾斜度比传统卡车更大，当然你也可以通过应用程序进行预调。在未来，特斯拉将在用户界面的全屏摄像头视图方面提供更多软件灵活性。丹说特斯拉半挂车的转弯半径与Model 3和Y相同，这非常令人印象深刻，这部分得益于半挂车没有发动机，使其具有更大的切角和机动性。半挂车的工作电压范围在800到1000伏之间，但他们仍然使用12伏和24伏制动系统，然而，他们正在考虑将48伏用于下一代半挂车。

Leno did actually get to tow a low roof Semi, they didn't really tell us much other than they just wrapped up some hot summer testing of that variant.

Leno实际上确实得以牵引一辆低顶半挂车，除了告知他们刚刚结束了该变种的炎热夏季测试之外，他们并没有透露更多信息。

Tesla has not done solar panels on vehicles yet because the cost trade off is still not worth it, it adds too much complexity and you don't get it back in terms of energy yet.

特斯拉目前尚未在车辆上使用太阳能电池板，因为成本性价比尚未达到，这会增加过多的复杂性而目前无法回收能量。

Dan talked a few different times about how with the Tesla Semi, the power is actually dynamically adjusted given the current situation so it gives the driver the appropriate level of power for different circumstances without the driver having to adjust anything themselves.

丹几次谈论特斯拉半挂车时提到，实际上，该车的动力会根据当前情况进行动态调整，从而为不同的情况提供适当的动力水平，而无需驾驶员自行调整任何参数。

And given that the average age of truck drivers is over 50, the ease of driving the Tesla Semi not having to learn the complexities of traditional ice trucks could actually attract more drivers to the industry.

考虑到卡车司机的平均年龄超过50岁，特斯拉半卡车的驾驶便捷性将不再需要学习传统内燃机卡车的复杂性，这实际上可能会吸引更多的司机进入该行业。

It was a very positive video, Leno loves Tesla and honestly this is some of the best advertising you can do, albeit not official.

这个视频非常正面，Leno对特斯拉非常喜爱，说实话，这是一种非常好的广告方式，虽然不是官方的。

You may recall last week I told you about the GRVA which is just the working party working on regulations for autonomous vehicles over in Europe.

你可能还记得，上周我告诉你关于欧洲地区的自动驾驶车辆规章制度的工作小组GRVA。

Well, a long story short, there are some delays it looks like the draft is going to have to be revised because there is so much to talk about so the takeaway is we may not see official regulation when it comes to these automated vehicles in parts of the EU until sometime around January 2025.

简而言之，由于有很多内容需要讨论，看起来起草文件将需要进行修订，所以短期内可能不会在欧盟部分地区看到这些自动驾驶车辆的正式监管。预计最早要等到2025年1月左右。

I did check it out and a lot of this information is coming from a German Tesla forum so I would not take this as gospel however I wanted to pass along for those of you over in the EU just you may have to be patient when it comes to FSD actually being released over there.

我确实查过了，并且很多这些信息都来自一个德国的特斯拉论坛，所以我不会把这当作绝对真实的消息。但是，对于在欧盟的各位来说，我想转达一下，也许在FSD（全自动驾驶）实际上在那里发布之前，你们可能需要有点耐心。

The way I'm understanding it, each 8-ass driving feature has to be approved before it can be implemented so autopilot in certain EU regions was first approved.

我理解的方式是，在实施之前，每个八级自动驾驶功能都必须获得批准，因此在某些欧盟地区，自动驾驶系统首先获得了批准。

Now Tesla is waiting for new regulations for FSD, maybe there are some workarounds here when it comes to each country specifically if they had their own permit or regulation but certain countries may just wait to see what the GVRA decides from a higher level.

现在特斯拉正在等待全自动驾驶（FSD）的新法规，也许对于每个国家来说，如果他们有自己的许可证或法规，可能会有一些变通的做法，但某些国家可能只是等待机动车行政管理机关（GVRA）从更高层面上决定。

We have to check in on Ford and the F-150 Lightning as now they're seemingly canceling high volumes of orders due to quality checks and today Ford confirmed exactly that.

我们必须关注福特和F-150 Lightning，因为现在他们似乎因质量检查而取消了大量订单，今天福特公司正式证实了这一点。

We have Ford now working to match 23 supply levels with demand as the company prepares to change over to 2024 Lightning production later this year.

如今，我们现在有福特公司正在努力匹配23种供应水平与需求，因为该公司准备在今年晚些时候转产2024款闪电（电动卡车）。

As a result we have canceled some dealer stock orders not submitted as pre-sold for model year 2023.

因此，我们已取消了一些没有作为2023年型号预售的经销商库存订单。

Our manufacturing team is critical to our quality efforts because they are the last line of defense for delivery to our customers.

我们的制造团队对于我们的质量努力至关重要，因为他们是交付给我们客户的最后一道防线。

We've identified a couple of additional areas where we believe additional checks are necessary as we ramp production.

我们已确定了几个我们认为在增加生产时需要进行额外检查的领域。

The issue is not safety related and there are some numbers being thrown around but I have not seen anything official when it comes to cancellation numbers.

这个问题与安全无关，有一些数字被提出来，但就取消数量而言，我并没有看到任何官方的消息。

I believe over the weekend it was the car dealership guy that first broke some of this news. Customers began receiving emails saying Ford has actually canceled all the incoming F-150 Lightning's that were getting built. This from a sales rep at a Ford dealer. I haven't seen Ford make this official but could it have something to do with the UAW strikes because there was this also shared by car dealership guy. Ford is losing parts distribution this morning which was last week. I work at a Ford dealer the parts manager just told us were cut off from anything that has not already shipped.

我相信上周末是汽车经销商人员首次传出了一些这方面的消息。顾客开始收到电子邮件，称福特实际上取消了所有正在建造的F-150 Lightning。这是来自福特经销商销售代表的消息。我还没有看到福特正式宣布这个消息，但是否可能与UAW的罢工有关，因为汽车经销商也分享了相关内容。福特今天早上失去了零部件分销，上周还没有发生。我在一家福特经销商工作，零部件经理刚刚告诉我们已经停止了尚未发货的任何事物的供应。

Joe T shares some images of the first verified crash tested cyber truck at Gigatexas.

乔·T分享了一些在吉加特萨斯进行首次经过验证的翻转测试的赛博卡车的图片。

So here's one shot you can see the front definitely crumpled in it appears as though the airbags have deployed as well.

所以这是一个镜头，你可以看到前面明显撞变形，看起来好像气囊也已经弹出了。

And here's one more look so tough to really draw many conclusions from this but exciting to see nonetheless.

这还是另一种看法，很难得出很多结论，但仍然令人兴奋。

From Reuters we got a legal win for Tesla there were some Tesla owners looking to put together a class action lawsuit when it comes to false advertising of Tesla's autopilot features but we got a new ruling.

来自路透社的消息，特斯拉取得了一次法律胜利。一些特斯拉车主打算发起一起关于特斯拉自动驾驶功能虚假宣传的集体诉讼，但是我们收到了一项新的裁决。

A federal judge has ruled this group of owners must pursue their claims in arbitration rather than court.

一位联邦法官裁定，这个业主团体必须通过仲裁来解决他们的索赔问题，而不是诉诸法庭。 翻译：这个业主团体必须选择通过仲裁来解决他们的诉求，而不是通过法院。

This marks a significant victory for Tesla as it means the company will not have to face class action claims on behalf of much larger groups of vehicle owners.

这对特斯拉来说是一个重大胜利，因为这意味着公司将不必面对代表更大车主群体的集体诉讼要求。

The more precedents like this that can be set in Tesla's favor the easier the future will become.

如果能够为特斯拉创造更多此类先例，未来将变得更加顺利。

According to data from EU EVs the Model Y is Norway's best selling car through the first three quarters of 2023.

根据欧盟电动汽车数据，截至2023年前三个季度，特斯拉Model Y是挪威销量最好的汽车。

In the first nine months of the year Tesla sold 19.5,000 Model Y's more than 2,000 units more than the four closest competitors combined.

在今年前九个月里，特斯拉售出的Model Y比排在前四位的竞争对手的销量总和多出19.5万辆，超出了其他四家竞争对手总和的2,000辆以上。

Those competitors being the ID for the Skoda Enyak the ID buzz and the Toyota BZ4X.

这些竞争对手是斯柯达Enyak、大众ID Buzz和丰田BZ4X车型的代表。

In France we have Lautre Bune reporting that in September Tesla sold 5.5,000 vehicles which were all Model Y by the way they had no Model 3 sales in September and Tesla actually made up 3.55% of the overall French auto market for the month and electric vehicles were up around 19%.

据法国Lautre Bune报道，今年9月，特斯拉在法国售出了5.5万辆汽车，值得一提的是这些车型全部是Model Y，而且当月Model 3没有销售。特斯拉的销量实际上占到法国整个汽车市场的3.55%，而电动汽车销量增长约为19%。

In evaluating, those Tesla was determined to be the best value for EANS ISD taxpayers and we can get those vehicles in 60 days. Other traditional makes and models of police vehicles we knew were probably going to take us at least a year to be able to provide to our officers in our new department and not only that but the other more conventional police vehicles that might be available to us even after 12 or more months we're going to be considerably more expensive than the Tesla models that are proposed to us. That's why we're recommending the Tesla as the best value and the most cost effective option for EANS ISD taxpayers and our new police department.

在评估中，特斯拉被确定为EANS ISD纳税人最具价值的选择，我们可以在60天内获取这些车辆。其他传统的执法车型我们知道，可能需要至少一年的时间才能提供给我们新部门的警官们，而且即使过了12个月或者更长时间，其他更常见的执法车型相比我们提议的特斯拉车型也会更加昂贵。这就是为什么我们推荐特斯拉作为EANS ISD纳税人和我们新的警察部门最具价值和最具成本效益的选择。

On X, Nick shared that his application for the San Diego gas and electric VPP through Tesla was accepted and we get an update 244 fleet homes are now enrolled in this program. So those San Diego gas and electric customers with powerball are up and running. Something to keep an eye on in the weeks ahead, Holmar said he just got word that Tesla is delivering cars with FSD installed out of the box meaning if you purchase FSD when you configure your Tesla rather than taking delivery and then have to wait for a software update to actually activate FSD it'll already be installed and ready to go. And this is speculation on my part but there's a chance this means Tesla is moving to one main branch for the user interface and FSD which would mean the FSD beta group would not have to wait months and months to get the rest of the features that everybody else already has.

在X上，尼克分享了他通过特斯拉成功申请了圣地亚哥燃气和电力VPP，我们收到了有关244个车队住宅已经加入该计划的最新消息。所以那些使用圣地亚哥燃气和电力服务的客户可以正常运行了。接下来几周需要密切关注的是，霍尔马说他刚刚听到特斯拉正在交付已经安装了全自动驾驶（FSD）功能的车辆，这意味着如果在配置特斯拉时购买了FSD，而不是等待软件更新来激活FSD，它将已经安装好并准备就绪。这只是我个人的推测，但是可能意味着特斯拉正在向用户界面和FSD合并为一个主要分支，这意味着FSD测试版群体不需要等上数个月来获得其他用户已经拥有的功能。

Over the weekend, Tesla China only so far has out of nowhere released what I'm calling a partial refresh of the Model Y one of the main new features the interior ambient lighting. They've also moved over to the new softer textile materials rather than the wood in the prior version and rather than the silver 19 inch Gemini wheels they now have them as black or gray depending on who you ask either way I certainly prefer this color.

在这个周末，特斯拉中国突然发布了我称之为部分升级的Model Y。其中一个主要的新特性是内部环境照明。他们还采用了新的柔软织物材料，而不是之前版本的木材。相比之下，19英寸的Gemini轮毂不再是银色，而是黑色或灰色，取决于你问的人。不管怎样，我当然更喜欢这种颜色。

Clicking around the Tesla China configurator and the official Weibo post I was not able to find anything about a rear screen for the Model Y so that's why part of why I'm calling this a partial refresh so no I do not think this is the full on project Juniper that we're expecting still sometime maybe quarter three of 2024 this would just be to hold people over until that time and for now they're offering these new features at the same price as before and from Chris Zang who can be somewhat hit or miss so keep that in mind he said in addition to ambient lights drive units and wheels Model Y also brings hardware 4.0 and noise vibration harshness reduction kits this time but when it comes to the features there's still plenty of confusion so I would urge caution with all of this because we also have car news China saying they contacted Tesla's PR in China about hardware 4 the company confirmed it is not featured on the updated Model Y which still has hardware 3 car news China did confirm the faster acceleration at 5.9 seconds a full second faster than before but that's only for the Model Y standard version as the long-range and performance remain unchanged when it comes to acceleration and power they're also saying the Model Y standard range got an increase of about five miles in range and the long range got a 17 mile increase performance variant unchanged also as far as I can tell no ventilated seats and no official word on when this might come to Fremont and Austin but if I had to guess I would again be setting my expectations maybe Q1 2024 but then again is there a world where this recent shutdown at Austin has something to do with this I would say it's possible but I'm not getting my hopes up the way I'm interpreting this partial refresh it was just Tesla taking the lowest hanging fruit so that more people don't wait for the full on project Juniper refresh of the Model Y it may also help to streamline production and have more of the same parts used especially when it comes to that dash and the ambient lights having it on the three and the Y in time we'll learn officially what the real changes are and are not but either way to have it at the same price you love to see it from Drive Tesla they just opened a new supercharger in Richmond British Columbia it'll be the newest and also the largest in the country on Friday night Tesla turned on a 40 stall V3 supercharger site on Garden City Road $22 per kilowatt hour and no peak or off-peak hours for now it's the third supercharger open to Richmond bringing some more capacity to the city right outside of Vancouver that has one of the largest Tesla owner populations per capita in Canada I thought this was an interesting data point so far we have about 25% of countries globally planning to phase out gas vehicles two caveats I would add one you have different timelines for different locations and two a lot of these are still being challenged and depending on the political situation and any changes these could of course change I still believe.

在特斯拉中国配置器和官方微博帖子上，我找不到关于Model Y后置屏幕的任何信息，这也是我称之为部分刷新的原因之一，因此我认为这不是我们预期的完全的项目Juniper，这可能要等到2024年第三季度，这只是为了填补时间空白，目前他们以相同的价格提供这些新功能，并且来自Chris Zang的消息有点准确性得看，他说除了环境光、驱动单元和轮毂，Model Y还带来了4.0硬件和降噪装置，但是在功能方面仍然存在很多困惑，所以我建议要谨慎对待这一切，因为中国汽车新闻也表示，他们联系了中国特斯拉的公关部，关于4.0硬件，该公司确认更新的Model Y没有这个功能，仍然使用3.0硬件，中国车讯也确认了加速度更快，只有Model Y标准版的加速度有1秒的提升，长续航和性能版的加速度和动力都没有改变，当涉及到加速和动力时，他们还表示，Model Y标准版的续航里程增加了大约5英里，长续航版增加了17英里，性能版没有改变，据我所知，似乎没有通风座椅，也没有关于这个功能何时引入弗里蒙特工厂和奥斯汀工厂的官方消息，但是如果我要猜测的话，我可能再次将期望值设定为2024年第一季度，但另一方面，奥斯汀工厂最近是否停工与此有关，我不确定，但我对此没有太大希望，我对这次部分刷新的解释是，特斯拉只是在摘取最低的果实，以便更多的人不用等待Model Y的完全项目Juniper刷新，这也有助于简化生产，并使用更多相同的零件，特别是当涉及到仪表板和环境光时，这样就可以在三和Y上使用相同的部件，随着时间的推移，我们会正式了解真正的变化和未变化，但无论如何，能以相同的价格获得这些变化，真是太好了！来自Drive Tesla的报道，他们在不列颠哥伦比亚省里士满市新开了一个超级充电站，这也是该国最新、规模最大的充电站，周五晚上特斯拉在Garden City Road上启用了一个40个充电桩的V3超级充电站，价格为22加元/千瓦时，目前没有高峰或低峰时间，这是里士满市的第三个超级充电站，为加拿大温哥华市的市区提供了更多的充电能力，该市人均特斯拉车主数量居榜首，我觉得这是个有趣的数据点，迄今为止，全球约有25%的国家计划淘汰燃油车，我要补充两个注意事项，一是不同地区有不同的时间表，二是很多计划仍然面临挑战，视政治局势和任何变化而定，这些计划当然可能会改变，我仍然相信这一趋势。

Paragraph 1: If we just let the free market play out here EVs would win the future in time but anything to expedite the process is going to be a win in my book Rivian also dropped its Q3 numbers produced 16.3 000 delivered 15.5 000 more importantly they remain on track to deliver their 52 000 annual production guidance comparing quarter over quarter for Rivian if you go back in quarter two they produced 13.9 000 and delivered 12.6 000 so they're making progress in a pretty challenging macro environment so really good for them.

第一段： 如果我们只是让自由市场自然发展，电动汽车（EVs）将会在将来获得胜利，但任何加速该进程的措施对于我来说都是一个胜利。此外，Rivian公布了他们的第三季度数据，生产了16.3万辆汽车，交付了15.5万辆，更重要的是，他们仍然按计划交付年产量为52万辆的目标。与Rivian相比，回顾第二季度，他们生产了13.9万辆，交付了12.6万辆，所以他们在一个相当具有挑战性的宏观环境中取得了进展，这对他们来说是非常好的。

Paragraph 2: A quick uAW strike update last rade mary barra was seemingly a bit frustrated saying it's clear that there is no real intent to get an agreement she said it's clear shawn feyn wants to make history for himself but it can't be to the detriment of our representatives team members and the industry the uAW is pitting the companies against one another but it's a strategy that ultimately only helps the non-union competition in response the uAW said that mary barra did not show up to bargaining this week feyn said we're not out here just for the heck of it we're out here because gm and the three companies screwed around for over seven weeks and did not get into bargaining with us and just today gm said it was indefinitely laying off 160 workers at plants in indiana and ohio the word is the uAW is holding new bargaining sessions with gm and stellantis today and the union said it did reach a new labor agreement with vovol group owned mac trucks jp morgan estimating the strike so far has caused gm 191 million. and ford 145 million.

快速的美国汽车工人联合会（uAW）罢工最新进展消息，玛丽·芭拉（Mary Barra）似乎有些沮丧，说明明没有真正达成协议的意图。她说，肖恩·费恩（Shawn Feyn）显然想为自己创造历史，但不能损害我们的代表团队成员和行业。uAW正在将各公司相互对抗，但这个策略最终只有帮助那些非工会的竞争对手。作为回应，uAW表示玛丽·芭拉本周没有参加谈判。费恩说，我们不是因为无聊才出来的，我们是因为gm和其他三家公司在过去的七个星期里闲逛，没有与我们进行谈判。就在今天，gm宣布无限期地裁员印第安纳州和俄亥俄州的160名工人，据悉uAW今天将与gm和斯泰兰蒂斯（Stellantis）进行新的谈判会议，并且工会表示已经与沃尔沃集团旗下的马克卡车（Mac Trucks）达成了新的劳动协议。摩根大通估计，目前为止，这次罢工已经给gm造成了1.91亿美元的损失，而福特则损失了1.45亿美元。

Paragraph 3: Just so you know i'm adding this article to the prediction tracker so at the end of 2024 we can come back and look at all of these new vehicles that were supposed to be released in 2024 and see how it went toiota is still hyping up its new production methods for evs talking about six radical steps the overhaul hinges on a host of breakthrough technologies risky already but they're based in the toiota production system but turbocharged with digital tools for the ev era toiota is implementing these new techniques in testbed factories across their toiota city stronghold in japan still promising first deliveries of this new ed platform in 2026 to prove that it's serious last month toiota hosted that two-day tour of the sites that we heard about their chief production officer said toiota is getting its groove back we have been late in starting the progress but we hope to leapfrog ahead of tesla this way toiota execs say the high stakes transformation is as revolutionary as the shift to unibody from body on frame vehicles a decade ago and their success is anything but guaranteed but they're still throwing around wild claims like this new edy architecture will require half the investment and development resources but the vehicles will double their range thanks to better batteries the ceo said i'm going to utilize toiota's skill to change the future of car making sometimes we might have to destroy the conventional way of production.

只是为了让你知道，我会将这篇文章添加到预测追踪器中，这样在2024年底，我们可以回来看看所有那些据说会在2024年发布的新车型，以及事实如何。丰田仍然在炒作其新的电动车生产方法，谈论六个彻底的步骤，这个大改革依赖于许多突破性技术，已经很冒险了，但它们是基于丰田生产系统的，但又经过数字工具的加持，以适应电动车时代。丰田正在日本的丰田市核心地区的试验工厂中实施这些新技术，仍然承诺在2026年首次交付这个新的电动车平台，以证明其认真对待。上个月，丰田举办了为期两天的参观活动，我们听说了他们首席生产执行官说丰田正在恢复活力，我们在进步方面晚了一步，但我们希望以这种方式超越特斯拉。丰田高管表示，这项高风险的转型与十年前从车体分离出来的整车转变一样具有革命性，而且他们的成功并不保证，但他们仍在拿出像这样的疯狂言论，比如这种新的电动车架构将只需要一半的投资和开发资源，但由于更好的电池，车辆的续航里程将翻倍。首席执行官表示，我将利用丰田的技术改变汽车制造的未来，有时我们可能不得不摧毁传统的生产方式。

Paragraph 4: One method toiota will be using software and virtual world representations they use a wall size video screen to interact with these 3d digital models of possible line designs that are overlaid onto existing factory floors they said this should have the time it needs to retool a new vehicle line in cuts equipment costs by a quarter method to toiota's gigacast technique which we know all about however engineers are cautioning there is still a lot of work to do before mass production can begin for now toiota only has one gigapress and by 2026 it'll need more and bigger ones this toiobev is just the name for this hypothetical car that toiota is developing then they go into battery claims i won't waste your time they've made outlandish promises in the past but funny enough toiota engineers say they've cracked the code of solid state batteries well let's see it they go on to talk about a new body and paint shop and moving from welds to considering bolts and other things which if you're picking up on it sounds a lot like tesla then they go into a self-propelled assembly line where camera and lidar sensors can be installed along the factory pillars to keep the car on track and clear of workers and here's one of their logistic robot vehicles moving cars around parking lots to load onto car carriers and they said the company wants to eventually supplant the lot's 22 human workers with 10 robots a production officer said we have a long history of success this can be both a strength and a weakness it's sometimes difficult to have a breakthrough but we'd like to say that in times of a pinch there also comes an opportunity this is a big turning point in our competitiveness apparently finally they realize they need drastic changes to remain relevant now the question over the next few years is can they execute remains to be seen.

第四段：丰田将使用软件和虚拟现实来展示其线路设计的三维数字模型，这些模型被叠加在现有的工厂车间上，通过一面巨大的视频墙与之互动。他们称，这种方法可以大大减少重新调整新车系所需的时间，从而减少了四分之一的设备成本。这种方法是丰田的超大铸造技术的一种，我们对此都很了解，但工程师们提醒称，在大规模生产开始之前还有很多工作要做。目前，丰田只有一台超大压铸机，到2026年将需要更多更大的压铸机。而Toiobev只是丰田正在开发的这辆假想车的名称，接下来他们讲了电池方面的说法，我就不浪费你的时间了，他们之前对此已经做出过夸大的承诺。有趣的是，丰田的工程师表示他们已经破译了固态电池的密码，那么让我们拭目以待吧。然后他们谈到了一个新的车身与喷涂工厂，并从焊接转向螺栓等其他方式。如果你留意到了，这听起来很像特斯拉，然后他们进一步讨论了自主组装线的问题，可以在工厂的柱子上安装摄像头和激光雷达传感器，以使汽车保持在轨道上，并避免与工人发生碰撞。这里还有一个物流机器人车辆，它可以在停车场上移动汽车并将其装载到汽车运输车上。他们称，公司希望最终用10台机器人取代这个停车场的22名人工工人。制造主管说，我们有着悠久的成功历史，这既是一种优势也是一种弱点，有时很难取得突破，但我们想说，在困境时也存在机会。显然，这是我们竞争力的一个重要转折点。最后，他们意识到他们需要进行大刀阔斧的改变以保持相关性，接下来几年，他们能否执行还有待观察。

Paragraph 5: BYD also reported delivery figures for today and their q3 sales for pure electric vehicles 431.6000 just shy of tesla sometimes we just have to give a company their flowers BYD has been growing incredibly fast and that's great for them but we have to remember they're playing in the affordable EV market where tesla has nothing so again this comparison really is not apples to apples not taking anything away from BYD it just is not a great comparison and here are some great charts highlighting the pure BEV sales comparison between tesla and BYD just keep all of that context in mind and just to prepare everybody given that tesla is not going to have that more affordable EV most likely for another two to three years BYD is most likely going to surpass tesla in full BEV sales it could happen as soon as quarter four of this year we just have to remember BYD's average sale price may be almost half of tesla's and we have to keep profits in mind which we should hear from BYD in a few days awesome accomplishment from starlink it's now available across the entire united states hope you guys have a wonderful day please like the video if you did you can find me on x linked below and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.

比亚迪还报告了当天的交付量以及他们在第三季度纯电动汽车方面的销售数据，达到了431.6万辆，仅略低于特斯拉。有时候我们必须给予一家公司应有的赞赏。比亚迪的增长速度非常快，这对他们来说是一件好事，但是我们必须记住他们是在价格实惠的电动汽车市场与特斯拉并驾齐驱。因此，这个比较并不是完全公平的。这并不是贬低比亚迪的意思，只是说它并不是一个恰当的比较。这里有一些很好的图表来突出特斯拉和比亚迪之间纯电动汽车销售的比较。在考虑这一切背景的时候，我们需要准备好，鉴于特斯拉可能还需要2到3年才能推出更经济实惠的电动汽车，比亚迪很可能在全面的纯电动汽车销售方面超过特斯拉，可能最早会在今年第四季度实现。我们必须记住，比亚迪的平均售价几乎是特斯拉的一半，并且我们必须牢记利润，我们将在几天后从比亚迪获得这方面的数据。星链取得了非常了不起的成就，现在在整个美国都可用。希望大家有个美好的一天，如果你喜欢这个视频，请给个赞。你可以在下方找到我的链接，非常感谢所有我的赞助者们。