Markets Weekly September 30, 2023

Hello my friends, today is September 30th, my name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. Now this week we're going to talk about three things.

大家好，今天是9月30日，我叫约瑟夫，欢迎来到本期的《市场周报》。本周我们将讨论三个主题。

First, we have to talk about the topic du jour, that is the government shutdown. And I'll tell you why, it's nothing to worry about at all.

首先，我们需要谈论当下的热门话题，那就是政府停摆。我会告诉你为什么，这根本不值得担心。

Secondly, let's talk a little bit about the ongoing labor movement. We have some small updates on the UAW strike, but it also looks like labor has opened up a new front in Las Vegas. Labor is gaining steam and that suggests that wages will continue to rise.

其次，让我们稍微谈谈正在进行的劳工运动。我们对美国汽车工人联合会罢工有一些小的更新，但同时看起来劳工还在拉斯维加斯开辟了新的战线。劳工正在壮大，这意味着工资将会继续上涨。

And lastly, let's go over the inflation data that we got the past week, which was very positive, both in the US as well as in the Euro zone. And we'll talk about what that means for monetary policy going forward.

最后，让我们回顾一下我们在过去一周所获得的通胀数据，这些数据在美国和欧元区都非常积极。我们将讨论这对未来货币政策的影响意味着什么。

Okay, starting with the government shutdown. Now, first, let's talk about what a government shutdown is, because many times people confuse it with a debt ceiling episode, which in my view is much more mysterious.

好的，首先我们来谈一谈政府停摆。现在，首先，让我们讨论一下什么是政府停摆，因为很多时候人们会将其与债务上限事件混淆，而在我看来，后者要更加神秘一些。

So the way the government operates in the US is that it taxes and spends like every other government in the world. But it also basically always spends more than it receives and taxes. So it's always borrowing money to make up the difference.

美国政府的运作方式是与世界上其他政府一样，即通过征税和支出来运作。但与此同时，它基本上总是支出超过收入和税收。因此，它总是通过借钱来弥补这种差额。

If it can't borrow money, it's possible that the US government would run out of money and have to selectively default. So as long as the US government can continue to borrow, then it won't run out of money. But when there's a debt ceiling episode, so the US government is unable to issue more debt, it is possible that the US government will run out of money and have to default on some people either in the financial markets or in the real economy.

如果无法借贷，美国政府可能会用尽金钱，并不得不选择性违约。所以只要美国政府能够继续借贷，它就不会用尽金钱。但当债务上限出现问题时，美国政府无法再发行更多债务，有可能会用尽金钱，并不得不违约于一些金融市场或真实经济中的债权人。

For example, it could be that the US government defaults on treasury holders, or they could default on vendors, for example, military contractors that they owe money to. In either case, that would have an impact on the real economy.

例如，可能是美国政府违约向国债持有人偿付，或者违约向如军火承包商这样欠款的供应商支付款项。无论哪种情况，这都将对实体经济产生影响。

Now, we talked about in an earlier episode how defaulting on treasury was very, very, very low probability. But it's still a probability and things can go wrong. So when you have a debt ceiling episode, I think there is a potential for some significant disruption in the real and the financial economy.

现在，我们在之前的一集中谈到，违约国债的可能性非常非常非常低。但这仍然是一种可能性，事情可能会出错。当你出现债务上限的问题时，我认为实际经济和金融经济可能发生一些重大的混乱。

Now a government shutdown is very different from that. In a government shutdown, the US government has plenty of money. It still has access to the debt markets, so money is not a problem.

现在，政府停摆与此情况截然不同。在政府停摆期间，美国政府依然拥有大量资金，并且仍然可以进入债券市场，因此资金并非问题。

But according to the US law, even if you have money, Congress still has to pass a budget and allocate that money to various departments. If there is no budget, then that means these departments don't have money. And that's a problem today. So Congress right now is having difficulty getting together a budget that would fund various departments.

根据美国法律，即使你有钱，国会仍然需要通过一项预算并将这笔钱分配给各个部门。如果没有预算，这意味着这些部门没有资金。而这正是今天面临的问题。所以当前国会在努力拟定一项预算，以供资助各个部门，但遇到了困难。

And because there's no budget, these parts of the US government run out of money and they have to shut down. So what that means in practice is that some government employees are going to go on a paid holiday.

由于没有预算，美国政府的这些部门资金耗尽，不得不关闭。实际上，这意味着一些政府员工将会进入带薪休假状态。

So when there's a government shutdown, government workers that are essential, they continue to work. Maybe you can think of them as people who are issuing treasury securities or maybe people are part of the security apparatus and things like that. They continue to work. They just don't get paid because their department doesn't have any money.

所以当政府停摆时，那些至关重要的政府工作人员会继续工作。你可以把他们想象成发行国库证券的人，或者是安全保卫机构的成员等等。他们会继续工作，只是因为所在部门没有资金，所以无法获得薪水。

However, eventually, eventually, of course, one day the government will go back to work that it will be all resolved and they'll get back pay. For the government employees that are deemed to be non-essential, you can think of them as maybe some people who stamp visas, maybe some people who work in national parks, people like that, they just stay home and they don't get paid. But eventually, when the government shut down, it's over. They receive back pay. So they basically get go on paid vacation.

然而，最终，当然，总有一天政府会重新开始工作，问题会得到解决，他们会获得欠薪。对于那些被认为是非必要人员的政府雇员，可以将他们视为一些负责签发签证的人员，或是一些在国家公园工作的人员，等等，他们只是呆在家里而没有薪水。但最终，当政府停摆结束时，他们将会得到补发薪水。所以他们基本上是在度薪水假期。

Now, this has some real economy impact, of course, because if people are not receiving income, maybe they're less likely to be spending at that moment. Now, they could catch up to that spending later on when they get back pay.

现在，这确实会有一些真实的经济影响，当然，因为如果人们没有收入，可能他们此刻更不太可能花钱。但是，当他们获得补发工资时，他们可以在之后追回这笔支出。

But then let's say that usually you eat at a restaurant for lunch. You're not going to work, so you're not eating at that restaurant. Later on, when you come back, you're not going to eat extra meals to make up for that. So part of that is just lost services and stuff that never come back. So it's going to have some impact on economic growth, but not a lot.

但是假设通常情况下你在午餐时会去餐馆吃饭。因为你没有工作，所以不会去那家餐馆用餐。稍后当你回来时，你也不会吃额外的饭菜来弥补。所以其中一部分只是失去了服务和一些东西，永远不会回来了。这将对经济增长产生一定影响，但并不多。

So if there's a shutdown though, historically speaking, it doesn't actually last that long. I think the longest shutdown we ever had was just a few years ago and it was 35 days.

所以，从历史上来看，如果发生政府停摆，它实际上不会持续太久。我认为我们曾经经历过的最长停摆仅仅是几年前，持续了35天。

The way that this works is that when there's a shutdown, there's a lot of people in Washington DC who are unhappy. After all, there's a lot of people who basically either are not getting paid or don't have anything to do. And so since the congresspeople, they sit in Washington DC, they are very close to everyone who's unhappy. And so there's a lot of political pressure for them to do something. So these government shutdowns usually don't last very long.

这种情况的运作方式是，当发生政府停摆时，华盛顿特区有很多人感到不满。毕竟，有很多人基本上要么没有薪水得拿，要么没有事情可做。因此，由于议员们就坐在华盛顿特区，他们与所有不满的人们非常接近。因此，有很大的政治压力迫使他们采取行动。因此，这些政府停摆通常不会持续很久。

Now, the holdup right now seems to be that there are parts of the Republican Party who would like to see larger spending cuts, perhaps less money to Ukraine. And some people would also like to have more funding for border protection. Now, the Republicans control the house in the US, but their control is very thin. So in order to have the votes to pass what they want, they really can't afford anyone to defect. And yet there are these small groups of people who have who realize that they have power and are standing firm to their demands. So right now it seems to be a game of chicken and we'll see what happens. As time goes on, historically speaking, the party that holds up these negotiations tends to do poorly in public polls. And so again, my best guess is that this if this happens, it really doesn't go on very long. And it's going to be a non issue and we'll go off and talk about the next thing in the news very shortly and we'll forget all about this.

目前，目前的拖延似乎是因为共和党内部有部分人希望看到更大规模的削减开支，也许减少对乌克兰的资助。同时，有些人也希望增加边境保护的经费。现在，共和党在美国众议院掌控权，但他们的控制力很脆弱。所以为了获得他们想要的通过票数，他们不能承担任何人的背叛。然而，存在这些认识到自己有权力的小团体，他们对自己的要求坚决不退让。所以目前似乎是一场你死我活的博弈，我们将会看到会发生什么。从历史上看，拖延这些谈判的一方往往在民意调查中表现不佳。再次说实话，我猜测这种情况发生的时间不会很长。这将成为无关紧要的问题，我们很快就会讨论下一个新闻，然后我们就会忘记所有这些。

Okay, the second thing that I want to talk about is what's happening with the labor strikes. So this past week, we had again, the United Auto Workers, as we discussed before, are striking. They're striking against a few major American auto companies and selectively at some locations. And their opening offer was 40% pay increases over a few years, as well as shorter work weeks and more benefits and so forth. Basically, they were asking for a lot. Some interesting developments over the past week is that President Biden basically flew over to Michigan and joined the picket line. And President Trump, surely afterwards, also flew to Michigan and gave a speech. So what we're seeing right now is that there's a tremendous amount of political support for labor. Now, it's not always like that. I think traditionally speaking, you would have more disagreement within government. Maybe you would just maybe you would have politicians simply to stand with the big companies. But that's not the political climate right now. And I think that makes it much more likely for the United Auto Workers to succeed in what they want. After all, so if you are a big company in the US, obviously you get federal contracts and obviously get all sorts of federal subsidies. Now, if the guy that is your big client and give you lots of money is basically strongly, strongly suggesting that you should be giving more money to the workers, you kind of have to. Now, some reports suggest that the United Auto Workers are still negotiating that they've come down a bit from their very, very high offer. But it does look like they're going in for you're going to end up with a sizable pay increase.

好的，我想要谈谈的第二件事是工人罢工的情况。所以在过去的一周里，我们再次看到了我们之前讨论过的美国汽车工人工会进行罢工。他们在一些美国大型汽车公司和一些特定地点进行罢工。他们的开场条件是在几年内增加40%的工资，同时减少工作周数并提供更多福利等等。基本上，他们要求的很多。过去一周出现的一些有趣发展是拜登总统基本上飞到了密歇根州并加入了抗议队伍。而特朗普总统稍后也飞到了密歇根州并发表演讲。所以现在我们看到的是工人罢工获得了巨大的政治支持。现在并不总是这样的。我认为从传统上来说，政府内部会有更多分歧。也许政客们只会站在大公司那一边。但现在的政治氛围并不是这样。我认为这使得美国汽车工人工会更有可能实现他们的目标。毕竟，如果你是美国的一家大公司，显然你会得到联邦合同和各种联邦补贴。现在，如果是你的大客户并给你大量的资金，那个人强烈建议你应该给工人更多的钱，你就不得不这么做。现在一些报告表明美国汽车工人工会仍在协商中，他们已经从他们非常高的要求中有所妥协。但看起来他们最终将获得可观的工资增加。

This past week, though, we also had interesting developments in another part of the labor market. The people who work in the casinos in Las Vegas also voted to go on strike. Now, this is about 50,000 people in Las Vegas. And they no doubt are looking at what's happening throughout the country and looking at the political climate and thinking to themselves, now this is the time they're seeing.

最近一周，我们在劳动力市场的另一个领域也出现了有趣的发展。在拉斯维加斯的赌场工作人员也投票决定举行罢工。现在，这是约有5万人参与的拉斯维加斯工人。他们无疑在关注全国发生的事情，审视着政治氛围，并自问着，现在就是他们所看到的时机。

We have an election year coming up. We're seeing they're seeing all the politicians siding with labor. And they're seeing that, hey, UPS, they got big raises, United Airlines got big raises, looks like you added auto workers are going to get big raises. We got to do something too. Now, what exactly do they want? Well, they didn't actually spell it out. I went on their website and it looks like they're asking for the biggest raises they've ever gotten in their union history. Now, they didn't say how much they wanted, but that sounds big. And also know that Las Vegas is a place that is, is really busy right now.

我们即将迎来选举年。我们看到所有的政客都倾向于支持劳工。他们看到了UPS、美国联合航空公司都涨工资了，似乎连汽车工人也会获得大幅加薪。他们觉得我们也要做些什么。具体来说，他们想要什么呢？嗯，他们没有明确表达。我上了他们的网站，看起来他们要求有史以来最大幅度的工资涨幅。虽然他们没有具体说要加多少，但听起来很大。而且我们也知道，目前拉斯维加斯非常繁忙。

So you have a lot of conferences, you have a lot of concerts, you have the F1 racing that's going to be there in November. So these casinos, they definitely want to be able to be seen as reliable and continue to function. And they need workers for that to happen. So my guess is that if this happens, maybe this happens, they're going to get big raises. Another possibility is that the casinos really just see what's happening in the world in just cave. But in any case, again, labor throughout the country is becoming more important and no doubt, there will be others who follow. So wages are going higher throughout the country.

所以你们有很多会议，有很多音乐会，11月还有一场F1赛车比赛。因此，这些赌场肯定希望能够被视为可靠并继续运作。而要实现这一点，他们需要工人。所以我猜，如果这种情况发生，他们将获得大幅加薪。另一个可能性是，赌场可能只是在那个世界中闭门谢客。但无论如何，全国范围内的劳动力变得更加重要，毫无疑问，还会有其他人效仿。因此，全国范围内的工资将会上涨。

Now, wage growth over the past few years went up a lot and it's been moderating. But with all these labor negotiations going on, it looks like there's still some upward momentum, which we have to keep in mind as we watch inflation closely, which brings us to our last topic. So this past week, we got some very encouraging inflation data. So in the US, the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation is core PCE. Core PCE was expected to print at 0% to 2% month over month, but it actually only printed at 0.1%.

现在，过去几年的工资增长得到了很大提升，但正在逐渐趋缓。但是考虑到所有这些劳资谈判的进行，看起来还有一些上升的动力，这是我们在密切关注通胀时必须记住的，这就带我们来到我们最后的话题。所以在过去的一周里，我们得到了一些非常令人鼓舞的通胀数据。在美国，美联储最喜欢的通胀衡量标准是核心个人消费支出价格指数（Core PCE）。预计核心PCE的月度数据将在0%到2%之间，但实际上只有0.1%。

At its current rate, core PCE is going to actually print below the Fed's expectation at the end of the year. So inflation is really hitting in the right direction. Not just in the US, though, this past week, we also had very positive inflation data in the Eurozone. Now inflation in the Eurozone, of course, still above target, but it continues to print below expectations with a later sprint a bit above 4%. It's heading in the right direction.

按照当前的速度，核心个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）年末实际上将低于美联储的预期水平。因此，通胀确实朝着正确的方向推进。而不仅仅在美国，上周欧元区的通胀数据也非常积极。当然，欧元区的通胀依然高于目标，但它继续低于预期，同时稍后可能会略高于4%。它正朝着正确的方向发展。

Now, what that this all means for monetary policy, of course, is that it's becoming increasingly likely that the DCB and the Fed are done with their hikes. So after the inflation print in the US, President Williams of the New York Fed, who is one of the top three people at the Fed, basically came out and suggested that he's going to pause in November. And that is definitely totally reasonable to do, but he still leaves open the window of a hike later on. The ECB looks like the market is beginning to think that they're done as well.

现在，对于货币政策来说，当然是美国联邦储备银行（DCB）和美联储逐渐放缓升息的可能性越来越大。在美国的通胀数据发布后，纽约联邦储备银行的威廉姆斯总裁（联邦储备银行的三位高管之一）基本上表示他将在11月停下来。这是完全合理的做法，但他仍然保留了以后升息的可能性。欧洲央行（ECB）看起来市场开始认为他们也快要放缓升息了。

Now, there are a couple things to keep in mind, though, before just thinking that it's mission accomplished. Again, like we just discussed, we have labor movements hitting up that are asking for more wages, more wage gains. So that, again, that could be upward pressure on inflation. Now, I also note, though, that the Biden administration appears to be trying to handle this by increasing the supply of labor. We had reports of the Biden administration.

现在，在认为任务已经完成之前，有几件事情需要记住。就像我们刚刚讨论过的那样，我们有劳工运动要求提高工资和薪酬增长。所以，这可能对通胀产生上升压力。不过，我也注意到拜登政府似乎正在尝试通过增加劳动力供应来处理这个问题。我们有拜登政府的报道。

It's basically given work authorization for a few hundred thousand Venezuelans in the US. Now, if you suddenly add a few hundred thousand people into the labor force, obviously that's going to dampen down on wages. So we'll see how this plays out. The second thing, of course, that is potentially upward momentum for inflation is energy prices. Oil continues to march higher and has yet to fully feed through into inflation. So depending on how that goes, of course, the oil kit tumble. And the next time we have some kind of financial disturbance, it could soar if, let's say, we have geopolitical developments. It's really hard to say.

这基本上是为在美国的几十万委内瑞拉人提供工作许可。现在，如果突然增加了几十万人口进入劳动力市场，显然会对工资产生抑制作用。所以我们将看到这将如何发展。其次，当然，对通胀构成上升动力的是能源价格。石油价格持续上涨，但尚未完全反映在通胀上。因此，根据具体情况，石油价格可能会下跌。而在下一次出现某种金融冲突时，如果发生地缘政治事件，它可能会飙升。真的很难说。

So at the moment, my best guess is that the Fed at the moment would be done. But there's always the possibility that these things heat up again and push inflation higher and encourages them to do another hike in December. Again, their data depended. So we'll see how the data goes. And this past this development on the inflation front was very welcome by the bond market, of course. Bonds were looking pretty dicey throughout the week. This inflation print bought a little bit of stability. Bonds, of course, rallied on these good inflation prints, but then gave a lot of that back. My sense still is that the highs are not yet in for 10 year treasuries this year.

目前，我最好的猜测是美联储可能已经结束加息了。但是这些事情总是有可能再次升温，推动通胀上涨，并且促使他们在12月再次加息。再次强调，这取决于他们的数据。所以我们会看数据的走势。当然，这个通胀方面的最新发展对债券市场来说非常受欢迎。债券在这个星期看起来非常不稳定。这个通胀数据稍微提升了一些稳定性。债券当然会因为这个好的通胀数据而上涨，但是后面又回落了很多。我个人觉得今年10年期国债的高点尚未出现。

Okay, so that's all I prepared today. Thanks so much for tuning in. Remember to like and subscribe if you like what I'm producing.

好的，今天我准备的就这些。非常感谢你们的关注。如果你们喜欢我制作的内容，请记得点赞和订阅。

And of course, if you're interested in hearing more about my latest market thoughts, check out my blog at FedGuy.com.

当然，如果你对听取我最新的市场观点感兴趣的话，可以访问我的博客FedGuy.com了解更多。

And if you're interested in learning more about macro markets, check out my courses at centralbanking101.com.

如果你对宏观市场感兴趣，可以去centralbanking101.com上查看我的课程，了解更多相关知识。

Talk to you guys next week.

下周再和你们交流。