Tesla Q3 Delivery & Production Expectations
发布时间 2023-09-29 23:39:36 来源
摘要
➤ Rob Maurer discusses what to expect ahead of Tesla’s Q3 delivery and production report
➤ UAW expands strike
➤ Texas update
➤ Tesla hosts Installer Day
➤ PCE comes in light
0:00 Tesla news
4:00 Production
13:21 Deliveries and inventory
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Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
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Executive producer Jessie Chimni
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Executive producer John Beans
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives
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Hey everybody Rob Maurer here, happy Friday, today we are going to be going through expectations for Tesla's Q3 delivery and production report which we should get early next week, we'll talk about the timing of that in a second as well, and then we do just have a few quick updates to go through before then for the news today. Thankfully a pretty quiet day though, Tesla up 1.6% on the day to close the week at $250.22 while the NASDAQ up 1 10th for percent on the day.
大家好，我是Rob Maurer。今天是星期五，我们将讨论特斯拉第三季度交付和生产报告的预期，我们预计下周初会获得这些报告，也将在稍后讨论其发布时间。在那之前，我们有一些快速更新要进行。不过今天的新闻还比较平静。特斯拉股价上涨1.6%，收于250.22美元，而纳斯达克指数日增0.1%。
As we had talked about we did get the core, or the PCE report today. The report did come in a little bit lower than expectations as did the headline result month over month. Year over year numbers came in in line with expectations as we can see with the chart from Bloomberg here. So overall, probably a pretty good reading from the PCE report, I don't want to spend a ton of time on it today, but with the report coming in generally a little bit lighter than expected, the expectations for interest rates to remain paused for the November meeting for the Fed did increase just a bit from where they were at yesterday and certainly from a week ago. That being said for December and January expectations, those largely stayed the same as they were yesterday. So a little bit better in terms of the expectations from the result of the PCE report, and we'll keep an eye on the next report relating to inflation will probably be in a couple of weeks with CPI.
正如我们之前所讨论的，我们确实获得了核心PCE报告今天。报告的结果略低于预期，与上月相比也是如此。按年计算的数据与预期相符，可以从此处的彭博图表中看出。总体来说，PCE报告可能是一个相当不错的读数，我今天不想在这上面花太多时间，但随着报告的结果普遍低于预期，美联储11月会议上利率保持暂停的预期略微提高，与昨天和一周前相比。但在12月和1月的预期方面，与昨天相比基本保持不变。因此，从PCE报告的结果来看，预期有所改善，我们将继续关注下一份与通胀相关的报告，可能会在几周后发布CPI报告。
Now, kind of the other big thing in the auto industry today, the UAW has expanded their strike. Kind of interesting tactics that they're taking here. Of course, we know that they're striking all three of the big three. But last week, they kind of spared a forward from expansion saying that forward had brought better terms to the negotiating table. And they were pleased with the progress there this week that are employing the same tactic again. But they're expanding their strike on forward this week. So I guess not happy with the progress from forward since then, continuing to expand with General Motors. And then they're actually sparing a stellantis this time from an expanded strike. So for similar reasons, just saying that they made progress with their proposal. So kind of interesting to see how they're putting them all against each other and working these sequential expansions. But this adds 7,000 workers to the 18,000 UAW workers that were previously on strike. So 25,000 in total, which is about 17% of the UAW workforce for the big three. So we'll keep an eye on that. I think this is going to continue for a while and probably will continue to employ these similar tactics in the coming weeks. But we'll see.
如今，在汽车行业中，另一个重大事件是美国汽车工人联合会（UAW）的罢工蔓延。他们采取的策略很有意思。当然，我们知道他们罢工了“三巨头”中所有的公司。但上周，他们放过了福特的罢工扩大，称福特在谈判桌上提出更好的条件。他们对此表示满意，这周他们再次采用了相同的策略，但这次他们罢工范围扩大到了福特。因此我猜他们对福特的进展并不满意，所以继续扩大了与通用汽车的罢工。这次他们实际上放过了斯泰兰蒂斯公司，原因类似，只是说他们在提案上取得了进展。看到他们如何将这些公司相互对立，并以此进行连续扩大的罢工范围，真是很有趣。这次罢工新增了7000名工人，加上之前已经罢工的18000名UAW工人，总计25000人，占UAW“三巨头”工人总数的17%左右。我们将继续关注此事。我认为这将会持续一段时间，并且在未来几周里可能会继续采用类似的策略。但我们拭目以待。
Now specifically to Tesla, just got a quick update here on Giga Texas from Joe Tagmire. So obviously they've just kind of restarted production, Joe was saying that there's 400 plus model wise in the testing a lot today. So good to see some production seemingly spool back up there. And then kind of some interesting shots of some frames here or some, you know, body and whites that are a little bit painted. That seemed to have maybe some testing happening with the paints. There's a couple of different silvers that Joe called out. Silvers are grays and obviously we're seeing some different shades there. So it doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot, but could mean something at some point. So something to keep an eye on there with what's whatever's going on with paint. Obviously we've seen Tesla make a couple adjustments with ultra red and obviously the Giga Berlin colors recently as well.
现在具体来说特斯拉，刚刚从乔·泰格迈尔（Joe Tagmire）这里得到了关于特斯拉德州超级工厂的最新消息。显然，他们刚刚重新启动了生产，乔说今天有400多辆Model Wise正在进行测试，看到生产似乎在重新加速，这是好事。然后有一些有趣的镜头，显示出一些已经喷涂了一些漆的车架或车身，可能正在进行一些涂漆测试。乔指出了几种不同的银色，包括灰色，显然我们在那里看到了一些不同的色调。所以这并不一定意味着太多，但可能在某个时候意味着一些东西。所以需要密切关注有关涂漆的情况。显然，我们已经看到特斯拉对超级红和最近的Giga Berlin颜色进行了一些调整。
And then just the last quick news update for today, Electric is reporting that Tesla has sort of quietly held something called an installer day for their energy products. This one specifically was held in Sydney, Australia last week. They learned about this from a post on LinkedIn. And they've also heard that Tesla held a similar installer day in the US earlier this summer. So electric had previously reported that Tesla was moving a little bit away from first party installations doing it themselves into third party contractors helping with that workload. So this seems to be a continuation of that strategy and trying to get those partners probably better up to speed or better collaboration between between the two. So interesting to see that shift, but I think with that shift, definitely a good move to do things like this.
今天最后一个快速新闻更新，Electric报道说，特斯拉悄悄地举办了一个名为“安装者日”的能源产品活动。上周，这个特别活动在澳大利亚悉尼举行。Electric从LinkedIn的一篇帖子得知了这个消息。他们还听说特斯拉今年夏天在美国也举办了类似的安装者日活动。因此，Electric此前报道特斯拉正在逐渐放弃自己进行首次安装，并转向第三方承包商帮助分担工作负担。因此，这似乎是该战略的延续，旨在加强与合作伙伴之间的合作速度和合作效果。所以看到这种变化很有趣，但我认为，随着这种变化，采取这样的举措绝对是明智之举。
All right, so that's most of the news. Let's move into delivery expectations. I'll hop over to Excel here. Just give me one second on that.
好的，那就是大部分的新闻了。我们来谈谈交付期望吧。我现在切换到Excel上。请稍等一下。
Alright. And like I said yesterday, we're not going to spend, you know, probably as much time on this as we normally would, because this is again, a quarter where the the meaningfulness of the numbers is lower because of the downtime that we know is coming that Tesla told us to expect that we have seen in China and in Texas specifically. So because of those production downtime periods, this quarter lets us see how well Tesla is ramping less, you know, less well than we normally would.
好的。就像我昨天说的，我们不会像通常那样花太多时间来分析这个问题，因为本季度的数据的意义较低，这是因为我们已经知道，特斯拉告诉我们可以预期的中国和德克萨斯州的停产时间。因此，由于这些停产期间，本季度我们可以看到特斯拉的扩产情况没有像通常那样良好。
So poor phrasing on that, but we just get a little bit less insight this quarter because of the downtime. So with that, it's a number that I'm a little bit less interested in than in a normal quarter, where we could see, you know, how, how well Berlin is progressing, how well Texas is progressing, Shanghai, etc. We just don't get as much insight. Really the big question right now is how Texas responds the downtime that we saw in September, how Shanghai responds the downtime that we saw for the updates of Model three, which really we can't learn a whole lot from from these numbers.
那段话措辞有点差，但由于停产时间的缘故，本季度我们只能获得少了一些洞察力。所以对我来说，这个数字比正常季度的我稍微没那么感兴趣，正常情况下我们可以看到柏林、德克萨斯、上海等地的进展情况。现在我们无法从这些数字中获得太多有用信息，目前真正重要的问题是德克萨斯如何应对9月份的停产时间，上海如何应对Model 3的更新带来的停产时间。
So, you know, I've got it all displayed here, we're not going to go kind of line by line, but at the end of the day, my my production forecast is right around 430,000 units. You can see that that would be down 10% quarter over quarter, still up 17% year over year. You can see along the top here how that breaks down by factory. We'll start with Shanghai because we obviously have the best insight there in terms of the information that we get throughout the quarter. So we know that July production was right around 80,000. We know that August was right around 80,000. I'm expecting that to drop in September. If we look between the Model three and the Model Y over here, you can see the headers there. I'm expecting a big drop in Model three production as Tesla transitions over. We may still have seen a little bit of production, probably not any for the old version, like we did in August, significant production there for the Model three, kind of right up until this retooling or restart for the upgrade happened.
所以，你知道，我把所有的信息都展示在这里，我们不打算逐行解释，但是最终，我的生产预测大约是43万辆。你可以看到，这与上个季度相比下降了10%，但与去年同期相比上升了17%。你可以看到上方的数据表显示了各工厂的具体情况。我们先从上海开始，因为我们在那里的信息掌握得最好，了解整个季度的情况。所以我们知道7月的生产大约是8万辆，8月也是8万辆左右。我预计9月会有所下降。如果我们看一下Model 3和Model Y的数据，你可以看到表头。我预计Model 3的生产将大幅下降，因为特斯拉正在过渡。我们可能仍然会看到一些生产，可能没有上个月那么多，但对于Model 3来说，直到升级重新启动之前都会有相当大的生产产量。
But then we've also seen at least hundreds of vehicles destined for the port in the Wuwaf livers. So Tesla does seem to be already producing at least a decent amount of the new Model three. So for now, I've kind of just put that at 5,000 or so. And then for the Model Y, I'm assuming that Tesla just kind of kept them or maintain their daily rate that we saw in July and August. Although if they had to take some workers off of that to help support the transition of the Model three, I could definitely see that being a possibility, which could lead to the 62,000 I have reflected here being potentially a little bit too high. So that's probably more of a best case number for Shanghai.
但是我们至少看到了数百辆运往武汉港口的特斯拉车辆。所以特斯拉似乎已经生产了相当数量的新Model 3。所以目前，我只能将其估算在5000左右。至于Model Y，我假设特斯拉只是保持了七月和八月的日产量。不过，如果他们需要调整一些员工来支持Model 3的过渡，我完全可以理解这种可能性，这可能导致我这里反映的62000可能略高。所以那可能更多是上海的最佳情况数字。
For Berlin in Texas, keep in mind that the history here, these are just estimates as well. So we don't necessarily know. We had a pretty good idea back in Q one because of some information that Tesla had shared. So I feel pretty pretty good about those Q two is a little bit more opaque. And then as we go into Q three, I've put some notes down here.
对于德克萨斯州的柏林工厂，请记住，这里的历史也只是估计而已。所以我们并不完全知道。在第一季度，由于特斯拉分享了一些信息，我们有一个相当好的想法。所以我对第二季度感觉还不错。不过第三季度会有更多的不确定性。我在下面写了一些注释。
So for Berlin, we did have reports in June. So as we headed headed into Q three, that there were going to be shift reductions. And that definitely seemed to be the case. And then there were reports in August of lower production, actually falling below potentially even below 4,000 per week. So throughout the quarter, plus, you know, any additional downtime that maybe we're not aware of, the average that I've gotten here is a little bit below 4,000 per week. Of course, you've got a, you know, around 13 weeks in the quarter. So I'm at around 3700. I believe this works out to you, just trying to, you know, be cautious based on a couple of different reports that we heard throughout the quarter of of lower production. And just sort of the time period in Europe right now.
对于柏林工厂，我们在六月份确实接收到了一些报告。进入第三季度时，我们预计会有工时减少，事实也确实如此。到了八月份，我们收到了有关生产减少的报告，甚至每周可能低于4,000辆。所以在整个季度，再加上我们可能不知道的额外停工时间，我们的平均每周产量略低于4,000辆。当然，一个季度大约有13周，所以我们大约是在3,700辆左右。基于我们在整个季度听到的一些相对较低产量的报告以及目前在欧洲的时间段，我希望能对这个数据保持谨慎态度。
So again, I think this is probably if anything a little bit on the higher end. And then for Texas, here, you know, obviously we've seen this, the shutdowns, which seem to be occurring for most of September, we also had some reporting on 4680. We saw the were, you know, the removal of the 4680 model Y from the design studio in this quarter. Now Tesla could have stopped production on that they could have switched production on that over to the 2170 version and kind of maintained, you know, four or 5,000 rate heading into September before that shutdown. But I'm not entirely convinced that that was the case.
所以我认为这可能是稍微偏高了一点。而对于德克萨斯州，在这里，我们显然看到了停工，这似乎在九月份的大部分时间内都在发生，我们还有一些关于4680的报道。我们注意到4680款Model Y在这个季度的设计工作室中被移除了。现在特斯拉本可以停产，将生产切换到2170版本，以在九月之前保持每天大约四到五千辆的产量。但我并不完全相信情况是这样的。
So I guess trying to be a little bit more conservative with Texas and just assume that there wasn't too much of a ramp up in terms of that weekly rate. We've never heard for Berlin or Texas that Tesla surpassed 5,000 per week.
所以我猜想在对待德克萨斯州时，尽量保守一些，假设每周增长率不会太高。我们从未听说特斯拉在柏林或德克萨斯州的产量超过每周5000辆。
Obviously we talked about the reports for Berlin even falling back below that. And I wouldn't be surprised if there were similar changes in Texas to as Tesla probably once they hit that peak, trying to, especially when we're, you know, the period of time that we're in right now with high interest rates and things like that, Tesla probably trying to focus a little bit more on cost control rather than kind of ramping volume at all costs.
显然，我们谈论了柏林的报告，即使下滑到更低水平也不会让人惊讶。如果特斯拉在达到高峰后，在德克萨斯州也出现类似的变化，我也不会感到意外。尤其是在目前高利率等因素影响下，特斯拉可能会更注重成本控制，而不是不惜一切代价提升产量。
So I think that's kind of what we're seeing in both factories plus with Texas, obviously that downtime. And then we did actually have a report in July, the four shutdown as well, which was only, you know, reported to be about five days, we never know exactly how long those are going to be, but that was kind of the report at that time.
所以我认为这在两家工厂以及德克萨斯州所看到的情况，显然，产生了停产时间。而且在七月份，我们实际上也有一个关于停产的报告，只持续了大约五天，我们从来不知道具体会持续多久，但那是当时的报告。
So you've got basically September, and then a week in July, lowering this number. So that's where I'm at for Berlin, in Texas and Shanghai, Fremont, also a little bit more opaque in general.
所以你基本上有九月份，然后还有七月份的一个星期，可以减少这个数字。所以这就是我对柏林、得克萨斯州、上海和弗里蒙特的了解，总体上也有一些不太清晰。
We didn't, I don't think we had any reports of major shutdowns if if I'm wrong on that, feel free to correct me in the comments today. We did have throughout the quarter though, some various reports about different construction, permitting that Tesla is sought for different upgrades.
我认为我们没有收到任何关于重大关停的报告，如果我理解有误，请随时在评论中纠正我。然而，在整个季度中，我们确实收到了一些关于特斯拉寻求进行不同升级所需的各种施工和许可的报告。
So a little bit unclear, maybe there has been some down times for some downtime for some changeovers and production there as well, but a little bit less transparency to what we have certainly in Texas and Shanghai with those reports.
可能有一点不清楚，也许在某些停机换班和生产方面有一些停机时间，但与我们在德克萨斯州和上海所拥有的报告相比，透明度稍低一些。
So for Fremont, I'm assuming that Tesla has lowered model three production based off of the upcoming changes for for Highland, even without, you know, converting Fremont at this point in time, they're probably cognizant of the impact of this update on demand for model three.
所以就弗里蒙特而言，我猜想特斯拉已经根据即将发生的海兰德更改降低了Model 3的产量，即使在目前这个时间点上没有转换弗里蒙特，他们可能意识到此次更新对Model 3需求的影响。
And yes, they can continue to lower prices in inventory and continue to move these vehicles. There's still great cars, but there's also, you know, some, going to be some impact of people wanting to kind of delay that and maybe wait for that update if they can.
是的，他们可以继续降低库存中的价格，并继续销售这些车辆。尽管仍然有一些很好的汽车可供选择，但也会有一些人选择推迟购买，或者等待更新后再做决定。
So I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla had just kind of took that opportunity to, you know, again, maybe not push following production as much as they normally would and maybe focus similarly on cost control.
所以如果特斯拉只是乘机做了一些事情，你知道的，可能并不像以往一样大力推进生产，而是更加注重成本控制，我并不会感到惊讶。
So I do have, sorry, I didn't have the right section on the screen, but I do have model three production, declining a little bit sequentially, and then model Y pretty much staying the same on a daily daily rate. I think this is about 90. Yeah, 99% of of last quarter.
所以，对不起，我在屏幕上没有找到正确的部分，但我确实有Model 3的生产数据逐渐下降了一些，而Model Y的每日产量基本保持不变。 我认为这大约是上个季度的99%。
Again, just assuming Tesla's probably not quite as hard to volume this quarter. So all of those adding up to the 430,000, and then sort of the other general note that we had this quarter is that Tesla announced between the will they announced on September 16 that sometime in the last week, they had produced their five millionth car ever.
再次假设特斯拉这个季度可能不太难达到规模化。所以所有这些加起来是43万辆，此外，我们本季度的另一个一般注意事项是，特斯拉在9月16日宣布，在上周的某个时间，他们已经生产了总计500万辆汽车。
So we talked a bit about that at the time and how we'd come back to this. Essentially, I won't walk through all the math because it's becomes a little bit complicated. And there's a gray area because that there there is this weak window where it could have happened in.
所以我们当时稍微谈了一下这个问题，并且讨论过我们会再回到这个问题上来。基本上，我不会详细解释所有的数学问题，因为它变得有点复杂。而且存在一个灰色地带，因为有一个可能性非常小的窗口，事件可能发生在其中。
But essentially going into the quarter from the announcement that Tesla had originally produced their one millionth car on March 1, you can take the number from there and you can look at, okay, what they produce in March, according to my estimates, which we don't know for sure, plus what that they produce in Q two, which we do know for sure.
从特斯拉在3月1日宣布生产了第一百万辆汽车这一消息来看，基本上进入本季度后，你可以从那个数字开始计算，你可以看到他们在三月份生产了多少辆车，根据我的估计，我们不确定确切数字，再加上第二季度的产量，我们对这个是确定的。
That gets you to about 4.65 million to start the quarter for Q three. So then you assume somewhere between, you know, the start of the quarter and September's 10th through the 16th sometime between that they produce 350,000 vehicles.
这将使你在第三季度初期达到约465万辆汽车。因此，你可以假设在本季度初和9月10日至16日之间的某个时间段内，他们会生产35万辆汽车。
And then you kind of extrapolate each factory's daily rate, excluding Texas, excluding to an extent, the model three and Shanghai. And then what that ramps out to two for the rest of the quarter.
然后你可以推断每个工厂的日产量，除了德克萨斯州之外，也要在一定程度上排除Model three和上海工厂。然后根据这个推断，预估每个工厂在本季度的总产量。
So again, don't want to go through all that because it's a little bit intricate and really no need. But ultimately, that netted me out right around here.
所以再次强调，我不想详细解释所有的细节，因为它有点复杂，并且真的没必要。但最终，我的结论大致是在这个位置上。
This is a little actually a little bit lower than I had initially gotten going factory by factory. So lowered it a little bit based off of this announcement from Tesla.
这实际上比我最初逐个工厂获得的数据稍微低一些。因此，根据特斯拉的公告，我把它稍微降低了一点。
So with that being the case, again, there's a little bit of a gray area here based on we don't necessarily know exactly what March was we don't necessarily know exactly what fell into these first two months here.
所以，考虑到这一点，我们不能确定三月份具体是什么，也不能确定这前两个月具体包含了什么，所以在这里还存在一定的模糊区域。
But in general, that kind of put me put the production numbers as they came in month by month, this quarter in a pretty good spot that fit pretty well with this, assuming that that number was hit sometime then under this forecast around September 13th.
总的来说，这让我对本季度的生产数量感到放心，因为它们逐月递增，并且与此前的预测相吻合。假设在9月13日左右能够达到目标数字的话，情况应该还算不错。
So sort of midpointing around that, which maybe puts a 10,000 unit airbar. So on this, so sort of fit pretty well with where I was at, again, a little bit lower. But I think in general fits with what Tesla announced and fits with the other hard information that we have from Shanghai. So that's production. Again, not necessarily something I care about down 10% quarter over quarter, 17% increase year over year. But most importantly, will be the exit rate, which we don't really get any information on from these numbers.
在这个范畴里可以说是个中间位置，也许能推测出1万辆空调室外机的产量。总的来说，跟我之前的估计相当符合，排名稍微靠后一点。但我认为它整体上与特斯拉宣布的内容以及我们从上海获得的其他硬信息是相符的。所以这是生产量。随着季度的下降10%，年同比增长17%，尽管不是我特别关心的部分，但更重要的是退出率，这些数字并没有给我们提供任何信息。
So hopefully, when we get into October and we can start to get a feel for how Shanghai is ramping up, that'll give us a much better idea. And then also Texas as well, after these production upgrades that we seem to have had this quarter.
希望到了十月份，当我们能够感受到上海正在加速发展的时候，这将给我们提供一个更好的了解。然后在德克萨斯州，我们似乎在本季度进行了一些生产升级之后，也会有更清晰的想法。
All right, and then for deliveries, as always, you know, I usually say that I don't spend a ton of time on that mostly looking at production in terms of my forecast, but nevertheless, people like to compare deliveries. I meant just below 445,000 just kind of taking a guess here at inventory. As we can see over the last five quarters in a row, Tesla's inventory is actually grown. So I have the days of inventory included over here and then just a rough calculation for the amount of inventory based off of that days of inventory number that Tesla gives us. So you can see it's obviously been steadily increasing during this period.
好的，然后关于交付方面，一如既往，通常我会说我在这方面花费的时间并不多，主要是关注我的预测中的生产情况，但是人们还是喜欢比较交付量。我认为库存应该稍低于445,000台，只是根据我的猜测。正如我们可以看到的，过去连续五个季度，特斯拉的库存实际上一直在增长。所以我在这里列出了库存天数，并根据这些库存天数计算出了库存数量的粗略估算，根据特斯拉提供的数据。所以你可以看到，在这个时期内库存明显持续增加。
I have a little bit of a decline in inventory this quarter. So Tesla actually delivering more vehicles than they sold, which should make sense given the production downtime that we have, especially because that's a little bit more focused in the, you know, the back part of the quarter, which would naturally lead to inventory draw down during that period specifically.
这个季度，我的库存有稍微一点下降。然而，特斯拉实际上交付的车辆比销售的要多，这在我们生产停工期间是合理的，特别是因为这种情况更加集中在季度的后半部分，这自然会导致库存在这段时间内下降。
Now, how much of this Tesla's going to do? Definitely an open question. There is plenty of inventory that Tesla could, you know, exceed production by more than this 15,000 unit level that I've got in here. But looking back historically, there have been other quarters where we've had scenarios like this where Tesla's had downtime. And the number that I'm projecting here would actually be by far the biggest amount of inventory drain, at least going back to the first quarter of 2017.
现在，特斯拉要做多少呢？这绝对是一个开放性问题。特斯拉有足够的库存，超过我这里估计的15,000 辆生产量也是有可能的。但是从历史上看，我们以前也有过类似的季度，特斯拉会出现停工的情况。而我在这里预测的数字实际上将是库存消耗最多的，至少追溯到 2017 年第一季度。
Prior to this 8,300 was kind of the biggest number we saw for inventory drain back in Q2 2019. And so I guess 8,600 here and then in Q2 in 2020 as well. So 15,000, it's almost more than double it's close to double the biggest inventory drawdown that we have seen. So even though there is more inventory available, this would still be kind of getting into unprecedented territory from from that perspective.
在2019年第二季度之前，8,300是我们看到的最大的库存减少数量。所以我猜今年这里是8,600，然后2020年第二季度也是如此。所以15,000几乎是我们见过的最大库存减少数量的两倍，接近两倍。所以即使有更多的库存可用，从这个角度来看，这仍将进入前所未有的领域。解读意思：在2019年第二季度之前，最大的库存减少是8,300。现在的库存减少量是8,600，以及2020年第二季度。因此，15,000几乎是最大库存减少量的两倍，接近两倍。即使有更多的库存可用，这个数字也是前所未有的。
So although there is that inventory available, I wouldn't even be surprised if it was a little bit a little bit lower of a spread than what I've got forecast here. That though would take Tesla down to about 14 days of inventory from 16. That'll be affected a little bit by the calculation from the lower delivery figure as well. If this summer is accurate, that would be a 5% decline quarter of a quarter, which Tesla told us on the Q2 call that we should be expecting. And then a 29% increase from Q3 last year. And of course, we saw big progress in Q4. So hopefully we'll see that repeat this year. But that's where I'm at.
尽管有存货可用，但如果库存比我预测的还要低一点点的话也不会令我感到惊讶。这将导致特斯拉的库存从16天降至14天。这个数字也会受到交付量较低计算的影响。如果这个夏天的数据准确，那么季度内的下降将达到5%，特斯拉在Q2电话会议上告诉我们应该预期这种情况。然后，与去年第三季度相比，会有29%的增长。当然，我们在第四季度看到了巨大的进展。希望今年能重复这一成就。这就是我的观点。
And then analyst consensus, the company compiled estimate was shared today. And that came out to be 454,800 vehicles. I do think that's still a little bit higher than what the true analyst expectation is. There's going to be analysts that are sort of inputted into that number that are contributing to that number. And they probably haven't updated their forecast since we have a little bit more information on Shanghai and Texas. So I think those that have updated, most of them are probably below this figure. And those more recent updates are going to be a better gauge on what the street is actually expecting. But of course, these numbers are what's going to be judged in terms of the headlines when we do get the report.
然后根据分析师的共识，公司整理的估计数据今天被分享了出来，结果显示预计的车辆数量为454,800辆。我认为这个数字仍然比真正的分析师预期稍微高一些。这个数字中可能包含了一些已经过时的分析师数据，因为我们对上海和德克萨斯的情况有了更多了解，而他们可能尚未更新他们的预测。所以我认为那些已经更新的预测，大部分都会低于这个数字。而这些更近期的更新将更好地反映市场的实际预期。当然，当我们获得报告时，这些数字将成为标题所评判的标准。
So obviously, I'm a little bit below that, certainly expecting that to be a quote unquote miss. But again, the importance of that, I think, you know, is relatively minor. And I think Wall Street probably realizes that though, might also find the occasion one that they could take advantage of. So we'll see on that. But those are, you know, my thoughts in terms of the consensus.
显然，我比那个水平稍微低一点，肯定认为这可能是一个所谓的不准确的判断。但是，我认为这的重要性相对较小。我想华尔街可能也意识到这一点，并可能利用这个机会。所以在这个问题上我们拭目以待。但这就是我的对于共识的看法。
And then kind of finally here, just in terms of timing, I'm going to expect this by Tesla's own standards that they, you know, their self regulation that they can post this within three days at the end of the quarter. So that's three business days as we have once seen before.
然后终于，在时间上，根据特斯拉自己的标准，我预计他们可以在季末的三个工作日内发布这个。正如我们之前所见，他们有自我规定，必须在季度结束时发布。
So that could technically be all the way through the end of day on Wednesday, since the quarter will end this weekend. But usually they get it out on the second calendar day of the next quarter. So we should be looking for this on Monday, most likely, probably before market open. That would be my best guess.
从技术上讲，这可能会一直延续到周三结束，因为该季度将于本周末结束。但通常他们会在下个季度的第二个日历日发布财报。所以我们应该在周一寻找它，很可能是在市场开盘之前。这是我最好的猜测。
If we don't get it, then maybe after hours Monday or before market on Tuesday would probably be the next most likely times. But we'll keep an eye out for it on Monday morning.
如果我们没有得到它，那么可能在周一的营业时间之外，或者在周二市场开盘之前可能是下一个最有可能的时间。但我们会在周一上午留意它。
All right, I think that is it for today then. So as always, thank you for listening. Thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll probably see you on Monday morning for the next episode of Tessel Daily. Thank you.
好的，我想今天就到这儿吧。所以像往常一样，感谢您的倾听。非常感谢您的倾听。请确保您已经订阅并开启通知。您也可以在X上找到我的Tesla播客节目。我们可能会在周一早上见到您，为了下一期的"Tessel Daily"。谢谢。