Be Careful Who You Listen To / Farley to Testify? / Tesla's Staggering Sales Lead ⚡️
发布时间 2023-09-27 23:29:08 来源
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Edmunds video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNhVHZ6T9k8
V4 Manual: https://twitter.com/MarcoRPi2/status/1706768319825506584
Cox Report: https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q3-2023-cox-automotive-industry-insights-and-sales-forecast-call-replay-available/
Luca (gigacasts): https://twitter.com/lucagrecoita/status/1707011909382205910
AJ: https://twitter.com/alojoh/status/1706729851619622938
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00:00 - Cybertruck Lidar
00:29 - Careful Who You Listen To
4:13 - Viecha on Optimus
4:43 - India and Tesla
5:19 - FSD Trial
5:43 - Larger Than GM and Ford
6:44 - Reuters 1H Analysis
7:46 - Awesome Model 3+ Video
10:23 - Cox Auto Report Highlights
13:19 - Tesla FCF Industry Share
14:32 - Tesla "Ad"
14:44 - Magic Dock
14:56 - ESA Canada
15:17 - SuC V4 Install Manual
15:48 - Gigafactory Delays
16:33 - Rare Earths
16:59 - Unifor Targets GM
17:24 - Mercedes Beat Tesla
20:58 - UAW Turns Up Heat
21:34 - Lidar Costs
22:40 - Farley to Testify?
23:38 - Mitsubishi Ends China Production
24:05 - Kia EV9 Pricing
24:47 - Lucid Opens Int'l Plant
25:11 - Apple Car
25:51 - Scaringe on Cybertruck
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*Disclaimer: I was a financial advisor with Edward Jones for a number of years. That said, I am not your financial advisor so please always do your own research and do not base your investment decisions on my videos alone.
#TeslaNews #Tesla #TeslaNewsTonight
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my newest patrons Andy D and Jeffrey P. Thank you for choosing to support the channel.
欢迎来到Electrified，我是主持人Dylan Loomis，特别感谢我的最新赞助者Andy D和Jeffrey P。感谢你们选择支持本频道。
So apparently because Tesla heard now Mercedes was rolling out SAE Level 3 technology, they're going to use LiDAR on the Cybertruck. It's like just doing some testing and validation per the usual.
显然，因为特斯拉听说梅赛德斯正在推出SAE 3级技术，所以他们打算在Cybertruck上使用激光雷达。这只是惯常的一些测试和验证。
We have to start with this report from Reuters because plenty of people are taking this and running with it, but if you go to the actual source, it's not saying what everyone is now parroting. Reuters said Tesla is working on an upgrade of its gigacasting technology to diecast almost all vehicle underbody parts in one piece. This coming from the Shanghai Securities News. They base their report on a recent visit to the Shanghai factory, but they did not say when or where the upgrade will happen. Earlier this month, we talked about that lengthy Reuters report that talked about Tesla considering moving to a single diecast piece for the upcoming next gen vehicle, but most likely they would need a 16,000 ton press for that. Publicly, those are nowhere to be found. I'm assuming they could be in development somewhere, but it's not commercially available or known.
我们必须从路透社的报告开始，因为很多人正在接受这个消息并加以传播，但如果你去查看实际来源，就会发现并不是每个人都在复述的那样。据路透社报道，特斯拉正在升级其巨型铸造技术，以一体铸造几乎所有车辆的底盘部件。这一消息来自《上海证券报》，他们的报道是基于最近对上海工厂的访问，但他们没有说升级将在何时何地进行。本月早些时候，我们谈到了一则长篇路透社报道，谈及特斯拉考虑将即将推出的下一代车辆使用单块铸件，但这很可能需要一个重达16,000吨的压力机。在公开市场上，这样的压力机却不存在。我猜想它们可能正在某个地方进行研发，但它们不是商用可得或众所周知的。
The CNEV post picked up the same thing, saying Model Y production at Gigashang High is using one piece diecasting for the rear structure, allowing the component to cost up to 40% less. Let's not forget, Tesla has been using a rear gigacast on the Model Y now for quite some time. This would not be a news item.
CNEV发布的帖子也报道了同样的事情，称Gigashang High正在使用一体式压铸技术来生产Model Y的后部结构，使得该部件的成本降低了高达40%。值得一提的是，特斯拉在Model Y上已经使用了后部一体压铸技术相当长的一段时间了，这并不是一个新闻。
Then they say Tesla is upgrading its diecasting tech to version 2.0, which diecasts nearly all of an electric vehicle's underbody parts into a single unit. Let's go to the actual source, shall we? Here's that version 2.0 quote.
然后他们说特斯拉正在升级其压铸技术到2.0版本，该技术可以将电动车的底盘几乎全部压铸成一个单独的部件。让我们来看一下真正的信息来源，好吗？这是那个2.0版本的引用。
This paragraph goes on to talk about gigacasting in general and the industry considering this move.
这段文字继续讨论了一般的巨型广播以及行业对这一举措的考虑。
Another paragraph on some benefits of the Gigacast technique Tesla has been using.
特斯拉一直采用Gigacast技术，这里是关于该技术一些好处的另一个段落。
And here they say the reporter saw the rear, bottom plate assembly system of the Tesla Model Y model produced here has adopted integrated diecasting tech to achieve rapid casting. They continue with another paragraph talking about more benefits of the gigacast design, not specifically to the rear in the Model Y.
在这里，他们说记者看到特斯拉Model Y车型的后部底板总成系统采用了集成压铸技术，实现了快速铸造。接下来，他们在另一段中继续谈论了Gigacast设计的更多好处，但并没有特别指向Model Y车型的后部。
Here we have production increases and here we have the rest of the industry considering this technique again. Then they get into the competition, doing the same thing, other competition doing the same, more on the competition, more of the same, some chatter on the industry, and that's the whole article.
在这里，我们有生产增加的情况，而其他行业也在重新考虑这种技术。然后他们开始进行竞争，采取同样的做法，其他竞争者也做同样的事情，竞争越多，越是如此，一些行业内的闲谈，这就是整篇文章。
So as you just saw yourself, if you stopped to read, there was nothing in there about Tesla using a single cast for an entire vehicle like they're somehow already making a next-gen vehicle in Shanghai. So something somewhere got lost in translation and no shade at all to the electric Viking, but he just uploaded a video earlier today saying Gigacang High launches one piece casting for epic 40% cost reductions. But Tesla said, hold my beer.
正如你刚刚自己所看到的，如果你停下来阅读的话，里面没有提到特斯拉使用整车一体铸造的信息，就像他们已经在上海制造下一代车辆一样。所以肯定是翻译出了问题，这一点绝对不是对电动维京人的指责，但是他刚刚发布了一个视频，声称特斯拉Gigacang High推出了一体铸造技术，将大幅降低40%的成本。但是特斯拉表示，“等等，我也要来一杯”。
Now that may sound ridiculous but it's true because apparently they're now using a single piece megacast to build the Tesla Model Y. Reports have just emerged from China. So again, no shade at all to say and this could happen to anybody, but there was nothing in that original source report to indicate Tesla is doing this new 2.0 single gigacast work in Shanghai.
现在这听起来可能很荒谬，但这是事实，因为显然他们现在正在使用单一件巨大的铸件来制造特斯拉Model Y。最新的报道来自中国。所以再次强调，我并没有任何负面意思，任何人都可能发生这种情况，但在原始资料报告中并没有提到特斯拉正在上海进行这项新的2.0版单一巨大铸件工作。
So then the question becomes, well, what are they talking about with this integrated die casting tech to version 2.0? I'm assuming somehow it's tied back to that other Reuters report that Tesla was considering doing this in the future, but they're still making that decision. I'll have Lucas X account posted below, he keeps up with the Gigacast stuff, but he confirms everything we've known to be true.
那么问题就变成了，嗯，他们在谈论什么关于这个集成压铸技术到2.0版本的事情呢？我猜可能与路透社另一篇关于特斯拉未来可能采取这一举措的报道有关，但他们仍在做出决定。我会在下面附上Lucas X的账户，他了解Gigacast的相关情况，并且证实了我们所知的一切。
Their most likely is not a 16,000 ton press in existence commercially anywhere yet, which would most likely be required for Tesla to do this single piece cast. So just be careful who you listen to, but right now, as far as I can tell, this report seems to be false.
目前可能没有商用的16000吨压力机存在，这对特斯拉进行单件铸造可能是必要的。所以，请谨慎选择你要听取的意见，但就我目前所知，这个报告似乎是不准确的。
Open skies shared some videos of Optimus and the progress over the past year, which yes is pretty impressive. Martin Vieja chimed in saying seriously, the pace at which I'm seeing the Optimus team moving is beyond my comprehension. Walking around the basement where robots are tested really makes one pause. And now the question here becomes where is this basement and what must one do to get there? This is pretty much the new Area 51 for the Tesla investment community.
开放天空分享了一些Optimus和过去一年的进展的视频，是相当令人印象深刻的。马丁维加（Martin Vieja）加入了进来，他认真地说，我看到Optimus团队的前进速度已经超出了我的理解范围。走在测试机器人的地下室里，真的让人停下来思考。现在问题是，这个地下室在哪里，一个人必须做什么才能到达那里？这对特斯拉投资社区来说几乎就是新的Area 51了。
An official from Gujarat in India has said they'll be establishing contact with Tesla at the appropriate time. They'll do this to ensure the state has a significant role in the future plans according to a senior state government official. They added the state isn't touched with all likely investors. We heard earlier that Tesla was looking to double its supply chain purchases from 1 billion to 2 billion this year in India. Elon still plans to visit India next year. And that's the update, but I'm sharing because this would lead me to believe that any announcement that India is the next Gigafactory sounds unlikely for this year.
印度古吉拉特邦一名官员表示，他们将在适当的时候与特斯拉建立联系，以确保该邦在未来计划中扮演重要角色。一位高级邦政府官员补充说，该邦并不对所有可能的投资者都感兴趣。我们之前听说特斯拉计划今年将其供应链采购规模从10亿美元增加到20亿美元。埃隆计划明年访问印度。这是最新的消息，我分享这条消息是因为这让我觉得印度将成为下一个超级工厂的可能性在今年看起来不太大。
In case you recently purchased a Tesla vehicle with hardware 4 and you were supposed to get 3 months free of an FSD trial, your free trial will be extended. Tesla has started sending out this email with instructions on how to activate your 3 month free trial. Why now? Because Tesla was originally not offering software for FSD with hardware 4 vehicles, but now it's available.
如果您最近购买了一辆配备4代硬件的特斯拉车辆，并且应该获得3个月的免费FSD试用，您的免费试用将会延长。特斯拉已经开始发送这封电子邮件，提供如何激活您的3个月免费试用的说明。为什么现在呢？因为特斯拉最初并没有为4代硬件的车辆提供FSD软件，但现在已经可用了。
In a new Tesla stock note from Adam Jonas and Morgan Stanley, they said Tesla's influence on both sides of the negotiating table for the UAW strikes looms larger than it appears. They said today Tesla's US share is testing 5% in the United States and we expect this to double between 2 and 3 years. In our forecast, Tesla's US market share could be larger than GM and Ford combined before the end of the decade. In our view, even before a potential 30-40% hike in hourly worker labor costs, we questioned the ability of the Detroit 3 to be able to produce high volume EVs at a profit. Our medium term EV forecasts for the D3 are far below management targets, 1 third or 1 fourth of management's targets. Due to a variety of factors ranging from cultural to competitive to cultural. Even if the D3 had parity with Tesla on labor costs, we don't see a path to profitability at scale in EVs without unusual levels of taxpayer support or other significant strategic changes. From Reuters, they did an analysis of US EV sales data for the first 6 months of 2023 and they found few EVs outside of the Model Y and Model 3 are selling at high enough volumes to support a full-scale assembly plant. Could this be part of why legacy OEMs are now backing off some of their initial EV ambitions? On a brand-by-brand basis, Tesla outsold its next 19 competitors by 10 to 1 or more during the first half. What's that they say a picture is worth a thousand words? Well, in this case, this picture is worth billions of dollars. Through the first 6 months in the US, Tesla 325.2,000 vehicles, Chevy, 2nd place, 34.9,000 followed by Ford, Hyundai, Rivian and BMW. I just went ahead and added up the 19 competitors in red on this chart and this was the total 214.5,000. So all of these brands combined could only muster up 66% of Tesla's sales through the first 6 months in the United States.
在摩根士丹利的亚当·乔纳斯和摩根士丹利的一份新的特斯拉股票报告中，他们表示特斯拉对于美国汽车工人联合会罢工谈判桌两边的影响比看起来更大。他们表示，特斯拉现在美国市场份额测试为5%，我们预计在2到3年内将翻倍。根据我们的预测，到本十年末，特斯拉在美国市场份额可能超过通用汽车和福特汽车的总和。从我们的观点来看，即使在潜在的每小时工人劳动成本上涨30-40%之前，我们对底特律三巨头能否实现高产量电动车盈利能力表示怀疑。我们对底特律三巨头的中期电动车预测远低于管理层的目标，仅为管理层目标的1/3或1/4。这是由于各种因素，从文化到竞争再到文化。即使底特律三巨头在劳动成本上与特斯拉持平，我们也看不到在电动车领域实现规模盈利的路径，除非有异常的纳税人支持或其他重大战略变化。
路透社对2023年上半年美国电动汽车销售数据进行了分析，发现除了Model Y和Model 3以外，几乎没有其他电动汽车能够达到足够的销量支持全面组装工厂。这是否是传统汽车制造商现在放慢其最初的电动汽车计划的原因之一？从品牌的角度来看，特斯拉在上半年销量上以10倍以上的优势击败了其下一个19个竞争对手。他们说一张图片胜过千言万语，嗯，在这个案例中，这张图片价值数十亿美元。在美国的前6个月，特斯拉销售了325.2万辆车，第二名是雪佛兰，销售了34.9万辆，紧随其后的是福特、现代、Rivian和宝马。我刚刚把图表上以红色标出的19个竞争对手加在了一起，总共是21.45万辆。所以通过这6个月美国市场的销售，所有这些品牌加起来只能达到特斯拉销量的66%。
It's not very often you get a second chance to define a segment. And to do it all over again makes this car really the best Model 3. I'm Lars Moravie, the Vice President of Vehicle Engineering for Tesla. I'm out here in Shanghai testing the brand new Model 3. We're out here testing the stability, road noise, wind noise, of course it's raining to a lot of wet handling. We're looking for the overall vehicle's composure and we're trying to make a great car. The biggest thing we wanted to do was kind of increase the size under the curve of the customer happiness. One of the things we did for that is we actually put the dual painting glass that we have implemented on the current Model 3 and the windshield in the front door glass into the rear door glass in the backlight. And what that does is create a cabin isolation feeling where you're the only one on the road. So even though cars are passing you by at high speeds, you don't really hear them. Okay. We've added new shock absorbering technology called frequency collective damping which really improves the ride while maintaining the handling. Not only is it more performant but it's also funner to drive and rides better at the same time. The kind of car I always want. For me it was very special because I was a part of the engineering team that worked on the original Model 3. And to do it all over again, you really can focus on all of those things that you've learned over those six years and to really put that impact back into the car makes this car really the best Model 3. And it's super exciting that the Tesla engineering team from China gets to introduce itself to the world with a brand new Model 3 that they develop mostly here in China. And it's all a bit like artwork. I'm super excited to get a new one and why wouldn't you want that? Last video and I thought it was very interesting that it sounds like most of this redesign in the engineering was done by Shanghai's engineering team which would certainly in part explain why we're not going to see this vehicle manufactured in Fremont for a few months.
很少有第二次机会来定义一个细分市场，而且再次实现这一目标使得这款车成为了最好的Model 3。我是特斯拉的车辆工程副总裁Lars Moravie。我现在在上海测试全新的Model 3。我们正在测试这款车的稳定性、路噪、风噪，当然还有在大雨天的操控性。我们在寻找整车的平稳性，希望打造一款出色的汽车。我们最想做的事情之一是扩大顾客满意度的曲线面积。为此我们采用了双层夹膜玻璃技术，将用于现有Model 3车型的前挡风玻璃和前门玻璃应用到了后门玻璃和后风挡玻璃上。这种技术创造了车厢的隔音效果，让你感觉自己独自一人在驾驶，即使其他车辆高速行驶经过你身边，你也几乎听不到声音。
我们还增加了一种名为频率集合阻尼的新型减震技术，这在保持操控性的同时改善了乘坐舒适性。它不仅表现更出色，驾驶起来也更加有趣，同时乘坐舒适性也得到了提升。这正是我一直想要的那种车型。对我来说，这非常特别，因为我是参与原始Model 3工程团队的一员。再次研发这款车，你真的可以集中精力将这六年来学到的所有知识应用到其中，使这款车真正成为最好的Model 3。中国特斯拉工程团队有机会通过一款在中国大部分地方开发的全新Model 3向世界展示自己，这非常令人激动。这简直就是一件艺术品。我非常期待拥有一辆新车，你又为什么不想要呢？在我看过的最后一段视频中，我觉得非常有趣的一点是，听起来这次工程的重新设计主要由上海的工程团队完成，这部分原因可能解释了为什么这款车在未来几个月内不会在弗里蒙特进行生产。
We got the Q3 report from Cox Automotive for the US auto market and we have red lights for interest rates and borrowing costs no surprise but September of this year we have interest rates at 5.33% up over 2% the same time last year and the average new auto loan rate in September has been 9.6% up from 7.1% last year.
我们从Cox Automotive得到了美国汽车市场的第三季度报告，不出所料，我们在利率和借贷成本方面出现了红灯警示。今年9月，利率为5.33%，比去年同期上升了2%以上，而9月的平均新车贷款利率为9.6%，高于去年的7.1%。
The top three factors holding back business interest rates, the economy and market conditions. However from Q2 of this year to Q3 of this year inventories have been increasing.
阻碍商业利率、经济和市场条件的前三个因素。然而，从今年第二季度到第三季度，库存一直在增加。
Then for Q3 of this year EV sales are expected to make up 8% of the overall auto market. Looking at brand share we know Tesla's numbers are only going to go down but they're still maintaining 60% of the EV sales in the United States. Everyone else still fighting for scraps and nobody else has a market share over 10%. The top three states for the EV share of retail sales, California 23%, Washington 16% and New Jersey 10%.
然后对于今年第三季度，预计电动车销量将占整个汽车市场的8%。从市场份额来看，我们知道特斯拉的销量将会下降，但他们仍然在美国保持着60%的电动车销量。其他所有人仍在为了剩余份额而争斗，没有其他公司的市场份额超过10%。电动车销量占零售销售额最高的三个州为：加利福尼亚州23%，华盛顿州16%和新泽西州10%。
As of September this year we have EV inventory sitting at 97 days of supply and the ice vehicles at 57 days of supply. We've heard Ford come out and say they're just trying to overload the dealers with EV supply because there were so many months when it was so limited.
截至今年9月份，我们的电动汽车库存为97天，而内燃机汽车则为57天。我们听说福特表示他们试图通过增加电动汽车供应来向经销商压货，因为之前有很多月份供应非常有限。
A trend we desperately need to see more of EV prices falling, looking at the green line, the red dotted line they actually separated out Tesla only and as you can see the EV prices almost track the Tesla prices. And at 60% of the market obviously that's what you would expect. The next step will be getting these numbers to start with a 4.
我们迫切需要看到的趋势是电动车价格的下降，从绿色线条可以看出，他们实际上将特斯拉单独分开了，你可以看到电动车的价格几乎与特斯拉的价格相一致。而且在市场份额达到60%的情况下，这是可以预期的。下一步将是让这些数据以4开头。
And when it comes to the best selling vehicles by category, the Model Y, the best selling SUV of any type with 270.4 thousand year to date through August. And the Model 3, the second best selling passenger car behind only the Toyota Camry should be noted the Camry and the Accord cost around $30,000, the Model 3 closer to $45,000. And the RAV4 and the CRV are both between $30,000 and $35,000 with the Model Y around $55,000.
在涉及按类别进行销量最佳排名时，要提到的是，截至八月份，Model Y已经成为年度销量最佳的SUV，达到270.4千辆。而Model 3则是仅次于丰田凯美瑞的第二畅销轿车，需要注意的是凯美瑞和雅阁大约售价在30,000美元左右，而Model 3则更接近于45,000美元。而丰田RAV4和本田CRV的价格都在30,000至35,000美元之间，而Model Y则售价在55,000美元左右。
I posed the question on X if we thought the Cybertruck could crack the top 3 for the pickup category and if so when, doing the math the Ram pickup is doing about 36,000 units per month which annualized is about 445,000, we've heard Elon and Tesla mention 375,000 year for the Cybertruck but that was a pretty loose comment and he said they'll make as many as people demand. So roughly Tesla might have to do 500,000 Cybertrucks per year to crack the top 3 if things don't change dramatically.
我在X上提出了一个问题，即我们是否认为Cybertruck能否打破皮卡类别的前3名，并且如果能的话，何时能够实现？计算一下，Ram皮卡每月大约销售3.6万辆，年销售量约为44.5万辆。我们听到埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉提到了Cybertruck每年销售37.5万辆，但那只是一个相当宽泛的评论，他们说会根据市场需求生产。所以，如果情况没有发生剧变，特斯拉大约需要每年生产50万辆Cybertruck才能够跻身前三。
And according to a recent study 83% of people think new vehicle ownership is out of reach citing the vehicles are not affordable. So maybe Elon was right after all. I'll have this full report linked below.
根据最近的一项研究，有83%的人认为新车的购买难以实现，原因是车辆价格昂贵。也许埃隆之前说得对。我会在下方提供完整的报告链接。
Here we have some interesting analysis from AJ who has teamed up with Brad and the guys over at Rebellioner. In the blue we have the Global Automotive Free Cash Flow by year and it's for these companies listed down here which make up over 95% of global passenger sales. Then in the red we have Tesla's free cash flow numbers. Free cash flow can be affected by one off so we have to keep that in mind but I really just wanted to highlight looking at the Global Automotive Free Cash Flow from June 2022 to 2023. We've seen this step up and step down pattern but the question becomes will it repeat into 2024. LTM is last 12 months and GAS is Global Automotive Sector. The takeaway here was that despite Tesla only having about 1.9% of the Global Auto share they're bringing home 6.8% of the overall free cash flow of the industry. This highlights Tesla's efficiency and things that impact this Tesla's ability to turn over inventory quickly. The ability to get paid by suppliers quickly while being able to delay payments to suppliers which is all established from years of developing supply chain relations.
这里有一些有趣的分析来自AJ，他与Brad和Rebellioner团队合作。蓝色表示的是按年份列出的全球汽车自由现金流，这些公司的销售额占全球乘用车销售的95%以上。而红色表示特斯拉的自由现金流数据。自由现金流可能会受到一次性影响，所以我们必须记住这一点，但我真正想强调的是观察从2022年6月到2023年的全球汽车自由现金流。我们可以看到这种上下波动的趋势，但问题是它是否会重复到2024年。LTM是过去12个月，而GAS是全球汽车行业。这里的要点是，尽管特斯拉仅占全球汽车市场份额的约1.9%，但他们带回了整个行业6.8%的自由现金流。这凸显了特斯拉的效率以及影响这一点的因素，例如特斯拉快速周转库存的能力，能够快速从供应商那里收款，同时又能够延迟向供应商支付款项，这些都建立在多年发展供应链关系的基础上。
You may have seen this screenshot going around the internet that would lead one to believe hey Tesla's doing some more paid advertising. Not true though this was just a private party using their own referral link.
你可能在互联网上看到了这张截图，它让人们相信特斯拉正在进行更多的付费广告。但事实并非如此，这只是一个私人活动使用了他们自己的推荐链接。
If you look at Tesla's Supercharger map and only select for those open to non-Tesla you will count 20 locations now with Magic Dock installed and active.
如果您查看特斯拉的超级充电地图，并且只选择没有限制特斯拉以外的车辆使用的位置，现在有20个地点已安装并启用了Magic Dock。这些Magic Dock为所有车辆提供服务。
From Drive Tesla Canada Tesla's extended warranty program is now available to Canadians. It should be noted you can only buy this ESA or extended service agreement when the initial warranty is still active. We covered the details briefly when this was launched in the United States back in March but I just wanted you Canadians to know it's now available to you as well. You can buy it right through the app.
从 Drive Tesla Canada 的官方信息来看，特斯拉的延长保修计划现已开放给加拿大人购买。需要注意的是，只有在初始保修期仍然有效时，才能购买该ESA或延长服务协议。在三月份美国发布时，我们已经简单介绍了相关细节，但现在我只是想让加拿大人知道，你们现在也可以购买该计划了。你可以直接通过应用程序购买。
On X, Marco the Supercharger Detective has posted the V4 Supercharger installation manual. I did go through and click some of these images just to take a look see if there's anything I could find. It's mostly technical exactly what you would imagine just how to install the unit itself. You do get certain images seen inside the unit like so. But personally I did not take much away from these documents either way I'm going to have this thread linked below if you want to check it out on your own.
在X上，超级充电器侦探马可发布了V4超级充电器安装手册。我确实浏览了一些图像，只是看看有没有什么我能找到的东西。它基本上是技术性的，就像你想象的那样，告诉你如何安装充电器本身。你可以看到一些充电器内部的图像。个人而言，我对这些文件没有太多收获，不管怎样，我会在下面提供这个帖子的链接，如果你想自己查看的话。
We've heard a fair amount of Gigafactory announcements for North America over the past year and now benchmark is saying a lot of these projects are being delayed. They cited challenges ramping up capacity, the actual cost for factories being higher than initially anticipated, chemical spills at certain factories leading to investigations and postpone construction of certain factories. I thought this was important context that actual battery companies are having challenges building these Gigafactories in the United States whether it's a labor shortage or specialized labor shortages. The fact that Tesla is still building out its 4680 supply becomes even more impressive.
在过去的一年里，我们听到了不少关于北美超级工厂的公告，而现在贝富基础设施表示很多这些项目都在被延迟。他们指出容量增加的挑战、工厂实际成本比最初预期高、某些工厂的化学泄漏导致了调查和某些工厂的建设推迟。我认为这是重要背景，实际上，无论是劳动力短缺还是专业劳动力短缺，真正的电池公司在美国建造这些超级工厂都面临挑战。特斯拉仍在扩建其 4680 供应的事实更加令人印象深刻。
And while I think it's been slower than a lot of people had hoped this is not some easy task. In a separate article today benchmark said rare earth magnets are unlikely to be substituted anytime soon saying their properties make them difficult to reduce or substitute without lowering performance and end use applications. There are of course other uses for rare earth permanent magnet motors outside of EVs but if Tesla can pull this off with its next gen drive unit eliminating these rare earths. Again, not a small feat.
虽然我认为进展比许多人希望的要慢，但这并不是一项简单的任务。在一个独立的文章中，Benchmark今天表示，稀土磁铁不太可能很快被替代，因为它们的特性使得降低或替代它们会降低性能和最终使用效果。当然，稀土永磁电机在电动汽车以外还有其他用途，但如果特斯拉能够以其下一代驱动单元成功消除这些稀土，那将是一项不小的成就。
From auto news after uniform and Ford in Canada struck a deal now their next target is GM. The uniform deal with Ford barely passed getting 54% of votes and it needed a majority. The Ford deal with uniform is for 3 years so they're locked in until September 20th, 2026. So with that deal done, uniform is now shifting its focus and as of yesterday they said they're at the table with GM.
从汽车新闻来看，Uniform和加拿大福特达成了一项协议，现在他们的下一个目标是通用汽车公司。与福特的协议勉强通过，只获得了54%的选票，但需要过半数的支持。Uniform和福特的协议为期3年，所以他们将一直绑定在一起，直到2026年9月20日。因此，完成了此项协议后，Uniform现在正在转移焦点，并于昨天宣布与通用汽车公司坐在一起商洽。
From auto news we have Mercedes Benz looking to launch its drive pilot that they're calling level 3 in California and Nevada Q4 of this year. This $2500 software will initially be available in a limited number of Mercedes EQS sedans. If you need a quick refresher here are the first 4 levels of SAE. Three is going to be the car can take control but then the driver has to be ready to take back control when the car says it needs help. Technically Tesla system is level 2 and operators like cruise and weymo would be at level 4. Level 5 full on Robotaxi anywhere anytime. Drive pilot uses radar, LiDAR, cameras, ultrasound and moisture sensors to provide data on road conditions to the vehicle computers. BMW is planning to bring a similar technology to its 7 series sedan in Germany this year. Meanwhile Volvo and Audi tried to do something similar but they abandoned those plans once they figured out they needed to untangle legal regulatory and safety challenges around level 3.
根据汽车新闻，梅赛德斯-奔驰计划在今年第四季度在加利福尼亚和内华达州推出他们称之为第3级的“驾驶自动化系统”。这款价值2500美元的软件最初将只在有限数量的Mercedes EQS轿车上提供。如果你需要快速回顾，以下是SAE的前4个级别：第3级意味着车辆可以接管控制，但一旦车辆需要帮助，驾驶员必须准备好重新接管控制。从技术上讲，特斯拉的系统是第2级，而像Cruise和Waymo这样的公司则处于第4级。第5级则表明完全是无人驾驶出租车，可随时在任何地方行驶。驾驶自动化系统使用雷达、激光雷达、摄像头、超声波和湿度传感器来获取道路状况的数据，并提供给车辆的电脑系统。宝马计划在今年将类似的技术引入其7系轿车中。与此同时，沃尔沃和奥迪也曾试图实施类似的技术，但一旦他们发现需要解决第3级相关的法律、监管和安全挑战，就放弃了这些计划。
But let's talk about the restrictions of this Mercedes system. Only on the highway you have to be following another vehicle 40 miles per hour maximum so it's really only for stop and go traffic. No interchanges, no inclement weather, no flashing lights in the vicinity, daytime only cannot change lanes. I can kind of do anything I want in the car provided that I stay in the seat and provided that I can kind of get a read on my face. So things you can't do, can't sleep, can't lean the seat back like you're going to sleep, can't leave the front seat but everything else pretty much is kind of fair game.
但是让我们来谈谈这个奔驰系统的限制。只有在高速公路上，你必须以最高40英里每小时的速度跟随其他车辆，所以它真的只适用于交通繁忙的情况。没有交通天桥、没有恶劣天气、没有附近的闪光灯，只能在白天行驶，不能换道。只要我呆在座位上，并能够辨认出我的脸，我基本上可以做任何想做的事情。所以不能做的事情包括：不能睡觉，不能把座位靠后，仿佛要睡觉一样；不能离开前座，但其他基本上都是可以的。
Now built into the infotainment system in this EQS here are things like a web browser, are things like mini games and also YouTube. So if I really want to I can actually go down here while Drive pilot is on, I can turn on this system, I can activate YouTube, there are games and things, we're going to go to apps here and we're going to play shuffle puck. So in the right circumstances, a really nice feature, one that I would add when it comes to driving features, Tesla has the same capability. It's just the one difference right now Mercedes is willing to deal with the regulatory hurdles of accepting that level three responsibility. But that's a key difference because many of these legacy companies have said they're no longer really going to aim for level five autonomy, they're just going to focus on really good level three and eventually four. When we have Tesla not really worrying at all about the SAE levels, they're just doing the work in the background, staying at level two to keep things simple. And then the plan is to eventually go right to level five or a level four hybrid of sorts.
现在，这辆EQS车辆的娱乐系统中内置了一些功能，比如网络浏览器、迷你游戏和YouTube等。所以如果我真的想要的话，在Drive pilot系统启动的时候，我可以下来操作这个系统，打开YouTube，玩游戏等。我们来到应用程序中，打算玩一个叫做shuffle puck的游戏。在合适的情况下，这是一个非常好的功能，我认为这是一个值得增加的驾驶特点。特斯拉也有类似的能力。唯一的区别在于，目前梅赛德斯愿意应对接受三级自动驾驶的法规障碍。但这是一个关键的区别，因为许多传统车企已经表示，他们不再追求五级自动驾驶，只会专注于非常好的三级和最终四级。而特斯拉并不太关心SAE级别，他们只是在背后不断进行工作，保持在二级以保持简单。然后计划最终直接达到五级或四级混合的水平。
So all of the headlines, articles and posts you'll undoubtedly see about Mercedes beating Tesla to be the first automaker to level three. Just remember Tesla's not even really playing this game. They're saying more than a hundred thousand miles of roads have been driven and mapped in California using drive pilot.
所以，当你无疑会看到有关梅赛德斯击败特斯拉成为首家达到三级自动驾驶的汽车制造商的所有标题、文章和帖子时，请记住特斯拉实际上并没有参与这场竞赛。他们声称在加利福尼亚州使用驾驶助手进行了超过十万英里的道路测试和制图。
If you're one for following local laws in California and Nevada, that would mean using your cell phone while on drive pilot is prohibited. But over in Germany, it's legal to use your cell phone with drive pilot on Mercedes said they're working to expand the capabilities to 80 miles per hour and they're looking for approval in more states and countries.
如果你遵守加利福尼亚和内华达的当地法律，那意味着在使用驾驶辅助模式时禁止使用手机。但在德国，使用梅赛德斯驾驶辅助模式时使用手机是合法的。梅赛德斯表示他们正在努力将驾驶辅助模式的能力扩展到每小时80英里，并寻求在更多的州和国家获得批准。
Many Tesla bulls will try to shoot this feature down and I get it, they're just trying to write the conversation as too many people are now saying Mercedes is ahead of Tesla when it comes to automated driving. But I want to take this opportunity to tip my cap to Mercedes for taking the liability and responsibility that comes with level three and again, it should be a useful feature in the right situations.
很多特斯拉看涨派会试图否定这一功能，我理解，他们只是试图推翻关于梅赛德斯在自动驾驶方面领先于特斯拉的言论。但我想借此机会向梅赛德斯致敬，他们承担了第三级自动驾驶所带来的责任和责任，并且在适当的情况下，这应该是一个有用的功能。
The UAW is looking to turn up the heat again this Friday if a deal is not struck. Sean Fane is planning to announce new targets 10 am this Friday in online remarks and then the workers would walk out of those sites at noon. Last Friday we heard that Ford was going to be spared because they were seemingly making some progress and it was only GM and Stellantis that had the extended strikes. This time around it's unclear if Ford will be targeted. The UAW and GM have talks planned for this afternoon and we have Trump set to talk to workers in Michigan today at a non-union automaker.
如果没有达成协议，美国汽车工人联合会(UAW)计划在本周五再次升温。肖恩·费恩计划在本周五上午10点进行在线讲话，宣布新的目标，然后工人们将在中午离开相应的工作地点。上周我们听说福特将被放过，因为他们似乎取得了一些进展，只有通用汽车和斯泰拉尔米特才有延长罢工。这一次不清楚是否会将福特作为目标。UAW和通用汽车计划在今天下午举行会谈，我们还有特朗普计划在今天与密歇根州的非工会汽车制造商的工人进行对话。
With perfect timing we got an article from auto news today on the state of LIDAR and they said many automakers are redirecting their energy toward less complex level two and three systems. These LIDAR companies are facing off against camera and radar systems which cost as little as $100 or less per unit. Hsi, a LIDAR company said it shipped more than 100,000 LIDAR units at below $1,000 per sensor this year. Alster, another company shipped more than 3,000 sensors in Q2 for an average price of $6,300. A LIDAR spokesperson declined to give a specific price but they said the company is targeting a price of $1,000 per sensor by 2025 and a production capacity of $250,000 by the end of this year.
在完美的时机下，今天我们从汽车新闻中获得了一篇关于激光雷达（LIDAR）状况的文章。该文章指出，许多汽车制造商正在将精力转向更简单的二级和三级系统。这些激光雷达公司正在与只需100美元或更低价格的摄像头和雷达系统竞争。Hsi是一家激光雷达公司，他们表示今年以不到1,000美元的价格发货了超过100,000个激光雷达传感器。另一家名为Alster的公司在第二季度以平均价格6,300美元发货了超过3,000个传感器。激光雷达的发言人拒绝透露具体价格，但表示该公司的目标是到2025年实现每个传感器1,000美元的价格，并在今年年底具备25万个的生产能力。
As I alluded to, a chief engineer at Ford said rather than trying to shoot for the moon maybe we can still do something that's very effective in pleasing for our customers with a little bit more limited target in mind rather than aiming for level four. I thought that was a great glimpse into the current cost of LIDAR anywhere between $1,000 and $6,000 roughly.
正如我所提到的，福特的一位首席工程师表示，与其试图达到很高的目标，也许我们可以针对一个稍微有限的目标来做一些非常有效的事情，以满足我们的客户需求，而不是追求四级(L4)自动驾驶。我觉得这是一个很好的窥视，LIDAR(激光雷达)的当前成本大约在1000美元到6000美元之间。
From auto news, now we have some folks from the House of Representatives asking for documents for Ford's battery factory and they threatened Farley to make him testify before Congress. They said Ford's ongoing refusal to provide substantive responses raises serious concerns regarding the licensing agreement with CATO. The lawmaker said if Ford does not disclose records sought previously by October 6th, we will consider other means to obtain the documents including compulsory process or insisting you appear before Congress to publicly explain your failure to comply. Ford responded saying they answered multiple congressional letters and thirdly responded to questions and shared detailed info about Ford's work to strengthen domestic battery manufacturing but did not say if they'd comply with a document request. Usually if someone is reluctant to hand over the documents, it's not just because they can't find them. Pair that with Ford now saying they're going to pause the deal altogether and it's a very interesting story right now.
从汽车新闻中，我们现在有一些众议院的人要求提供有关福特电池工厂的文件，并威胁法利（Ford CEO）在国会作证。他们说福特持续拒绝提供实质性回应，对与CATO的许可协议存在严重的担忧。议员表示，如果福特在10月6日之前不公开之前要求的文件，我们将考虑其他手段来获取这些文件，包括强制途径或坚持你出席国会公开解释你未能遵守的原因。福特回应说他们回答了多封国会信函，并且对问题做了详细回应，并分享了有关强化国内电池制造工作的详细信息，但没有说他们是否会遵守文件要求。通常，如果某人不愿意交出文件，不仅仅是因为他们找不到文件。再加上福特现在表示他们将完全暂停这笔交易，这是一个非常有趣的故事。
Mitsubishi will be ending its production in China, the reason it cited, increasing EV competition. Mitsubishi had a joint factory with GAC and going forward, GAC is expected to use the plant for EV production. Additionally, the CEO of Nissan said we're not at a level where we can make a profit due to extremely heavy discounting. We're considering our options including reviewing our strategy like joint ventures in China.
三菱将停止在中国的生产，原因是电动汽车竞争的增加。三菱与广汽集团有合资工厂，未来广汽预计将利用该工厂进行电动汽车生产。此外，日产汽车的首席执行官表示，由于极高的折扣力度，我们还没有达到能够盈利的水平。我们正在考虑各种选项，包括重新审视我们在中国的战略，例如合资企业。
We got the pricing for Kia's upcoming EV9 and it's going to start at $55,000. However, that price is for a base model rear wheel drive with 215 horsepower so it's going to be a slow vehicle. There's no pricing yet for the longer range models but I would imagine this is a marketing move, citing a price as low as possible and then the more desirable variants will probably be north of $70,000. With the base model, it'll have a 76kWh battery pack and it's expected to get around 223 miles of range. The EV9 will go on sale in the United States late this year with initial units coming from Korea and then next year the move production to West Point, Georgia.
我们得到了Kia即将推出的EV9的定价信息，起价将为55,000美元。然而，这个价格适用于基础款后驱车型，搭载215马力，因此速度会比较慢。目前还没有更长续航里程车型的价格，但我想这是一种营销策略，先引用尽可能低的价格，而更受欢迎的款式可能会超过70,000美元。基础款将搭载76kWh电池组，预计续航里程约为223英里。EV9将于今年年底在美国上市，初始单位将来自韩国，然后明年转移到乔治亚州的West Point进行生产。
From Reuters today, Lucid has opened its first international manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia. This new facility will have an initial capacity of 5,000 units per year and then scaling maybe in the future to 155,000 per year. And apparently Reuters did not get the memo that Elon had shot down this report about Tesla considering a factory in Saudi Arabia.
根据路透社今日消息，Lucid在沙特阿拉伯开设了其首个国际制造工厂。这个新工厂最初的产能为每年5,000辆，未来可能会扩大至每年155,000辆。而显然，路透社并没有得到特斯拉正在考虑在沙特阿拉伯建厂的报道被驳斥的备忘录。
From Mac rumors, we have an Apple analyst saying Apple's work on the Apple car has lost all visibility at the current time. If Apple doesn't adopt some kind of acquisition strategy to make inroads in the auto market, it's unlikely the Apple car will be able to go into mass production within the next years. There have been talks of internal strife over the direction of the project and the ultimate goal of the Apple car. The previous rumors were that Apple would begin testing its car in 2025 and looking to provide it to consumers in 2026 but given that we're heading into 2024, that seems unlikely. And at least publicly, Apple has no manufacturing partner for this vehicle so still seems like one giant question mark.
据Mac rumors报道，苹果分析师表示，目前苹果在苹果汽车项目上的工作已经变得毫无可见性。如果苹果不采取某种收购战略进入汽车市场，那么未来几年内苹果汽车很可能无法大规模生产。有传言称项目内部存在着有关项目方向和苹果汽车的最终目标的争议。之前的传闻是苹果将在2025年开始测试其汽车，并计划在2026年向消费者提供，但考虑到我们即将进入2024年，这似乎是不太可能的。至少在公开场合，苹果没有这款车的制造合作伙伴，所以它仍然像一个巨大的问号。
You're about to have a competitor on the horizon here. What do you think of the Cybertruck? I think if you were to think of the VIN diagrams of customers, there's probably not a lot of overlap in terms of. But I think it's great that a product like that exists in the world. As I said a moment ago, if we really truly want to electrify everything that's produced, and to give this in scale, there's one and a half billion cars on the planet, we as a planet produce about 90 million a year, customers want lots of different things. So we need to have a choice, we need a variety. So it's great to see something that's so different that's there. I hope there's lots of different choices that give lots of different types of customers.
在这个领域，你即将面临一个竞争对手。你对Cybertruck有什么看法？我认为如果你想象一下消费者的Venn图，可能在很多方面没有太多重叠。但是我认为像这样的产品在世界上存在是很棒的。就像我刚才说的，如果我们真正想要将所有生产出来的东西电气化，并使其规模化，全球有15亿辆汽车，我们每年生产大约9000万辆，消费者有各种各样的需求。所以我们需要有选择，我们需要多样性。所以看到有一种如此不同的产品出现是很好的。我希望有很多不同的选择能满足不同类型的消费者需求。
Often in the context of the tech space, we think of a single winner or maybe a small set of winners. And transportation, by definition, there needs to be many winners. So there needs to be 20 to 25 successful auto manufacturers building electric connected vehicles. And so our success doesn't require someone else's failure and vice versa. And it's just very different than when you think about your traditional big tech where there's one or two really highly concentrated winners.
在技术领域的背景下，我们常常认为只会有一个或少数几个胜利者。然而在交通领域，必须有很多个胜利者才行。因此需要有20到25家成功的汽车制造商来建造电动连接车辆。所以我们的成功并不需要其他人的失败，反之亦然。这与传统的科技领域有很大的不同，那里只有一两个非常集中的胜利者。
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