Point of No Return — Too Late for Automakers?

Hey everybody Rob Mauer here and today we've got some interesting updates from other automakers on their electric vehicle sales. We've also got new China insured vehicle data, news on Gigatexis, FSD and a few other items as well.

大家好，我是Rob Mauer。今天我们将带来一些关于其他汽车制造商电动汽车销售的有趣更新。我们还有最新的中国保险车辆数据，关于Gigatexis、FSD和其他一些事项的新闻。

Not a great day for the markets today, the NASDAQ down 1.6%. Tesla only down 1.2% so a little bit of an overperformance but still down to close the day at $244.12.

今天并不是市场的好日子，纳斯达克指数下跌了1.6%。特斯拉只下跌了1.2%，虽然相对表现稍好一些，但仍然收于244.12美元。

Just a quick note, as we are heading into the last few days of the quarter, we are starting to see more conversation about the delivery numbers which we should get early next week. That'll most likely happen on Monday, it's been a while since we've had one released during a trading day, but we'll see on that. Anyway, as we approach the release we are starting to see revised analyst numbers, I think a lot are revising downward based on the production shutdowns that we've seen primarily in Austin and Shanghai as well, but those that were paying attention should have been aware that that was happening a lot earlier, however not everyone is, so not too surprising to see these revised downward. I'll probably go through my expectations on Friday would be my best guess.

只是简单提一下，因为我们已经进入季度的最后几天，我们开始看到更多有关交货数量的讨论，我们应该会在下周初得到最新数据。这可能会在周一发布，我们已经有一段时间没有在交易日公布过这类数据了，但还得等着瞧。总之，随着发布日期的临近，我们开始看到修正的分析师数据，我觉得很多人是基于奥斯汀和上海的产能停产进行下调的，但那些留心的人应该早就知道这种情况早就发生了，不过并非所有人都知道，所以看到这些调低的数据也并不让人意外。我最好的猜测是星期五之前我会整理一下我的预期。

Relevant to the deliveries topic I do also want to quickly touch on China insured vehicle numbers of course being Tuesday we do have these now for the previous week, this is September 18th through the 24th. Actually really nice week for Tesla this week, 13,500 vehicles insured, pretty nice bounce back from the week prior at 8,500, so between the two those average out to 11,000 which is basically the average of the two weeks immediately prior to those. So I think we're more likely to seeing some volatility in how the registrations are falling week to week but has been pretty steady at that sort of 11,000 per week rate since the impact of the Model 3 really started to show in the numbers. Through 12 weeks of the quarter with one week remaining this moves the quarter to date number up to 133,700 that falls to about 9,000 vehicles behind where Q2 was at at this point or down 6% quarter to date. We're likely to see the quarter now finish down around 10% or so, driven by the lack of the Model 3 over the last month, so not really a bad result and it'll still finish ahead most likely of where Q1 was and has already surpassed Q4.

关于交付话题，我也想简要谈一下中国保险车辆数量。当然，因为今天是周二，我们现在已经得到了上一周（9月18日至24日）的数据。实际上，这一周对特斯拉来说非常不错，共有13,500辆车获得保险，相比上一周的8,500辆，是一个相当大的反弹。因此，这两周的平均数为11,000辆，基本上与此前两周的平均数相同。所以我认为我们很可能会看到注册车辆每周的变动性，但这已经保持在每周大约11,000辆的稳定水平，因为Model 3的影响在数字中开始显现。在本季度的前12周，还剩下一周，这将使本季度至今的数字达到133,700辆，比2019年第二季度拖后约9,000辆，也就是下降了6%。我们很可能看到本季度的落后幅度将达到10%左右，这是由于上个月缺少Model 3所导致的结果。所以这并不是一个不好的结果，它仍然很可能超过2019年第一季度，并已经超过了2018年第四季度。

Alright next up we've got a pair of interesting updates from other automakers on the status of their EVs. The first is from Volkswagen with Reuters reporting that Volkswagen will suspend production of their ID3 and Cooper-born, another electric car, at their Zvikau and Dresden plans in Germany in the first two weeks of October due to weaker demand a spokesperson for the car maker set. Volkswagen EVs continue I think to be a very fascinating situation. Basically we had Herbert Dees kind of going all in and then Volkswagen saying nope you're actually not going to do that, replacing him and now having revised a lot of their plans, including their plans for their next generation vehicle, the Trinity factory, things that we've talked about before. I think they've also struggled to find their footing with the ID series and I think this is one sign of that and we'll talk a little bit more about that in a second.

好的，接下来我们有一对来自其他汽车制造商有关其电动汽车状态的有趣更新。首先是大众汽车，路透社报道称，由于需求疲软，大众汽车将在德国的齐柏库和德累斯顿工厂于10月的前两周暂停ID3和Cooper-born两款电动车的生产，该汽车制造商的一位发言人表示。我认为大众汽车的电动汽车依然是一个非常有趣的情况。基本上，赫伯特·迪斯全力以赴，然后大众汽车说不，他实际上不打算这么做，换了他的位置，并修改了许多计划，包括下一代车辆“电动一体化工厂” Trinity 的计划，这些是我们之前讨论过的。我觉得他们在ID系列上也陷入困境，我认为这是其中一个迹象，接下来我们将稍微详细地谈谈这个。

But the other announcement that we have is from Hyundai Kia, they have announced according to Bloomberg that they will be lowering prices on their electric vehicles, a number of their electric vehicles in South Korea beginning in October. Now the Bloomberg headline draws a connection to demand here, that's not specifically given as a reason for the price changes like we hear from Volkswagen on the production pause. That part of it here comes from an analyst, however, if we look at the number of EVs registered in the first eight months of the year, that figure has declined this year in South Korea to just below 68,000 from just below 72,000 a year ago. Now I don't follow this South Korean market enough to know what things are affecting that, obviously subsidies can play a role and it sounds like they've adjusted their subsidies for the remaining part of the year to help encourage EV sales.

但是我们另外还有一项消息来自现代起亚汽车，根据彭博社的报道，他们宣布将在韩国从10月份开始，对他们的电动汽车进行降价。现在，彭博社的标题将这与需求联系起来，但具体降价的原因并没有像我们从大众汽车的生产暂停中听到的那样明确给出。这方面的原因来自一位分析师，然而，如果我们看一下今年前八个月注册的电动汽车数量，与去年同期相比，今年的数字在韩国下降到了刚刚低于68,000辆。现在我对韩国市场的了解不够，不清楚影响这一数字的因素是什么，显然补贴可能起到一定作用，听起来他们已经调整了今年余下时间的补贴政策，以促进电动汽车销售。

But the broader point here is that both of these stories reflect the very interesting period of time that we're at right now in the automotive market, particularly as it relates to EV development. We're now well into this decade that was supposed to be according to a lot of these automakers, the decade of transition to electric vehicles.

但这里更广泛的观点是，这两个故事都反映了我们现在正处于非常有趣的时间段，尤其是在与电动汽车发展相关的汽车市场上。根据很多汽车制造商的说法，我们现在已经进入了这个被认为是电动汽车过渡之十年的十年。

A lot of automakers now have these first or second generation electric vehicles launched and that's great, they get to check that first box for all those previous announcements about what they were going to accomplish. But as we have heard so many times, the real difficulty lies not in just creating a low-volume EV, but rather in creating a high-volume EV that is profitable. To do that requires a little bit of a leap of faith to make the investment both financially and culturally, plus of course, strong execution from that point.

现在许多汽车制造商都推出了第一代或第二代电动车，这很棒，他们能够勾选之前宣布的实现目标的第一项。但正如我们听过很多次的那样，真正的困难不仅仅在于创建一款低产量的电动车，而是在于创建一款可盈利的大产量电动车。要实现这一点，就需要在财务和文化上进行一次信任的飞跃，当然还需要从那一点开始强有力的执行。

So we're sitting here approaching the middle of the decade. A lot of automakers have kind of mapped out those investments, but we're at the point where they need to commit to those and actually bring those EVs to market. That's a lot easier to talk about in 2021 when the capital markets are flush, low interest rates, you're just getting started on EVs, you probably still think that you're going to be doing it better than Tesla does once you actually start.

所以我们现在处于这个十年中期的位置。许多汽车制造商已经规划了这些投资，但是现在他们需要承诺并真正把这些电动车带到市场上。在2021年，当资本市场充裕并且利率低时，这个问题更容易说得头头是道。当你刚刚开始电动车项目时，你可能仍然认为自己在实际推出后会比特斯拉做得更好。

Whereas now a couple of years later, all that stuff has changed, the capital markets are tight, interest rates are way, way higher than they were. Maybe your first generation of EVs is out, but they're losing you a ton of money and you're probably not seeing the best reception from customers, which brings us back to the reports today with folks wagging cutting production and specifically saying that it's due to low demand with Hyundai cutting prices.

然而，几年后的现在，所有这些都发生了变化，资本市场紧张，利率比过去高得多。也许你的第一代电动车已经上市，但它们让你亏了大笔钱，也许顾客对它们的接受度也不是最好的，这就把我们带回到今天的报告，有人在大幅削减产量，并明确表示这是因为需求低迷，而现代汽车公司降低价格。

And you've got Tesla out there acting like a madman continuing to ramp up production and just slashing prices and seemingly poised to continue to do so whenever they need to do it plus working on their own next generation. That is a much, much more difficult environment to try to get buy in on these types of commitments, which only adds incentives and makes it a lot easier to just kick the can down the road a little bit further, try and delay this, keep the financials looking good and hopefully at some point it'll be somebody else's problem and they can deal with it then.

而且你看到特斯拉正在表现得像个疯子，继续提高产量，大幅度降低价格，并且似乎准备继续这样做，只要他们需要这样做，还在努力开发自己的下一代产品。这种环境下要推动此类承诺变得非常非常困难，这只会增加激励措施，使得将问题推到未来更加容易，试图推迟处理，让财务状况看起来良好，希望有一天问题会成为别人的麻烦，届时他们可以处理它。

So far that's been fine because most EVs have been small volume, so anything they're giving up wasn't really affecting the general market too much. But that dynamic is changing rapidly primarily due to Tesla and due to China. Because of the scale of the automotive industry and the complexity of it, sometimes it feels like this stuff happens in slow motion, but at some point the impact of this transition is going to become so significant that it becomes insurmountable for these companies to actually make that transition.

到目前为止，这还不错，因为大多数电动汽车的销量都比较小，所以他们牺牲的东西并没有对整个市场产生太大影响。但这种情况正在迅速改变，主要是由于特斯拉和中国的影响。由于汽车行业的规模和复杂性，有时候感觉这些事情发生得很慢，但在某个时刻，这种转变的影响将变得如此重大，以至于对这些公司来说难以逾越，无法真正实现这种转型。

He would argue that that point has already been passed. Wherever that point lies though, the longer that these companies delay, which I think the current environment incentivizes, the more risk there is of passing that point of no return. So it's a fascinating period of time, reports like this, reports like we talked about yesterday with Ford announcing pausing construction on their battery plant, whether that's a negotiation tactic or not, there are a lot of signs lately of a little bit less confidence in these plans than what we saw a year or two ago. I think that's pretty telling.

他会争辩说，那个点已经过去了。无论那个点在哪里，然而，这些公司推迟的时间越长（我认为，目前环境对此有刺激作用），就越有可能超过无可回头的那个点。所以，这是一个非常有趣的时期，像这样的报告，像我们昨天讨论的有关福特汽车暂停建设他们的电池工厂的报告，无论那是不是一种谈判策略，最近有很多迹象显示出对这些计划的信心比一两年前要低一点。我觉得这相当有启示性。

Alright, let's move on from that topic over to Giga Texas. We've got a couple minor updates here. First is that Tesla appears to have finished the entrance that they've been working on for quite some time now. There were some great shots of it in a video that was shared from Elon's meeting that we talked about yesterday with the president of Hungary. I don't think we have many more details on that, but kind of interesting to see this video, pretty well produced. And nice to see this entrance looking completed. I don't know if Tesla has any other plans for it, but looks like it'll be ready for presumably a cyber truck delivery event at some point. Certainly very cyber themed. It's also got a nice angled shot of the entrance here from Gregor truck as well.

好的，现在我们从那个主题转到Giga Texas。这里有一些小的更新。首先，特斯拉似乎已经完成了他们一直在工作的入口。在昨天我们提到的埃隆与匈牙利总统的会议中，有一段视频分享了这个入口的一些很棒的画面。我想我们对此没有更多的细节，但看到这个视频还是挺有趣的，制作得非常好。看到这个入口完工也很让人高兴。我不知道特斯拉是否还有其他计划，但它看起来准备好了，可能会在某个时间点举行赛博卡车交付活动。肯定是非常赛博主题的。这里还有一个来自Gregor卡车的入口斜角镜头，看起来很不错。

From on Warbeck on X, looks like Tesla has also filed a permit for a 22,000 square foot cyber cafe at Giga Texas, which sounds really cool. The assumption though is that this would be for employees only, but maybe when Tesla has events they would open this up. And I'm sure at some point we'll at least get to see what it's like.

从On Warbeck关于X的报道来看，特斯拉似乎也已经申请了在德州超级工厂的一个面积为22,000平方英尺的网络咖啡厅的许可，听起来非常酷。尽管假设是这将只对员工开放，但也许特斯拉举办活动时会向公众开放。相信在某个时候，我们至少会有机会看到它是什么样子的。

Next we've got a new version of FSD beta that has started to roll out to non-employees today. I think there's been a bit of confusion on the actual version number. My understanding is that it's 11.4.7.2. There are probably some minor changes with FSD beta, but no actual new release notes for FSD. However, it does look like this will be a branch that brings some of the software features that we've had to non-FSD beta cars now up to date on the FSD branch. We've talked about all those as they have come out, things like the Spotify refresh, etc. But definitely exciting to get those caught up, and hopefully this will roll out widely pretty quickly.

接下来，我们推出了新版本的FSD测试版，今天开始向非员工推出。关于实际版本号可能存在一些混淆。据我了解，版本号是11.4.7.2。FSD测试版可能有一些小的变化，但没有针对FSD的实际新版本说明。然而，看起来这将是一个将我们一直在非FSD测试版车辆上享受的一些软件功能，如Spotify刷新等，带到最新FSD分支的分支。我们已经讨论过关于这些功能的新闻，但能够同步更新是非常令人兴奋的，希望这很快能够广泛推出。

Next up we've got a couple of pricing updates. Drive Tesla Canada reporting that Tesla has adjusted prices for superchargers in Canada. Looks like in most cases this has led to an increase, in some cases by as much as 25%. Though it's not exactly clear what the average change would be. Obviously that's a little bit difficult to gauge since supercharger pricing varies by location, varies by time. But it sounds like in general prices increasing, they say that in British Columbia a number of superchargers had decreases, but outside of that mostly increases.

接下来我们有一些定价更新。Drive Tesla Canada报道称，特斯拉调整了加拿大的超级充电器价格。在大多数情况下，这导致了价格上涨，有些情况下甚至增加了25%。尽管目前不太清楚平均变化会是多少。显然这有点难以衡量，因为超级充电器的价格因地点和时间的不同而变化。但总体上来说价格是在上涨的，他们说在不列颠哥伦比亚省有一些超级充电器有所降价，但除此之外大多数地方都有增加。

And then the other change is for the powerwall, so your merit is reporting that Tesla has cut the price on powerwall 2 by $300. Obviously we just saw the powerwall 3 officially added to the site, so it makes sense that they would then cut the price of powerwall 2, as most people are likely going to want the newest version.

然后另一个变化是关于Powerwall。你的消息报导称特斯拉将Powerwall 2的价格下调了300美元。显然刚刚我们看到Powerwall 3已经正式加入到网站上，所以降低Powerwall 2的价格是合乎情理的，因为大多数人可能会想要最新版本。

Next up is a headline being reported in multiple places today, this one is from Reuters, says Tesla to face EU anti-subsidy probe over China exports. However that's I think a little bit mischaracterized, the body of the article, which is very short, says that Tesla and European car makers that export from China to EU will be part of a probe into whether or not these companies are receiving unfair subsidies. So it's really not a probe into Tesla specifically like the headlines imply, more of an evaluation on EU subsidy policies in general. And we had already actually talked about this topic a couple of weeks ago, I think the news here if there is any, is that Tesla is actually going to be a part of what they're evaluating, when the initial reports made it sound like maybe it was going to be a little bit more focused on specifically cheap EVs, which could still end up being the case we don't really know at this time.

今天多个地方报道了一条新闻标题，这篇来自路透社的报道称，特斯拉将面临欧盟反补贴调查，原文体现了一些误解。文章的内容非常简短，说特斯拉和那些从中国出口到欧盟的欧洲汽车制造商将成为一项调查的对象，该调查旨在评估这些公司是否获得了不公平的补贴。因此，这并不是像标题所暗示的针对特斯拉的调查，而更像是对欧盟补贴政策的整体评估。实际上，我们几周前已经讨论过这个话题了。如果有任何新闻的话，可能是特斯拉实际上将成为评估对象之一，而最初的报道似乎暗示它可能更侧重于廉价电动汽车，但我们现在还不确定是否会是这样。

Alright, and then last item for today as was previously indicated President Biden did attend UAW strike rallies today, encouraging auto workers to quote unquote stick with it. So it's interesting to see this, definitely unusual and I think demonstrative of the political power that the UAW has right now, which I think amplified by the presence in swing states. Anyway, I think the visit likely emboldens the UAW with their efforts here, so we'll keep monitoring as this continues. But that'll wrap it up for today, so as always, thank you for listening, make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications, also find me on X at Tesla podcast, and we'll see you tomorrow for the Wednesday, September 27th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，然后今天最后一项，正如之前所示，拜登总统今天确实出席了UAW的罢工集会，并鼓励汽车工人坚持下去。所以看到这一点很有趣，肯定是不寻常的，我认为这也证明了UAW目前拥有的政治力量，而且我认为它受到了在摇摆州的存在的增强影响。无论如何，我认为这次拜访很可能会增强UAW在这方面的努力，所以我们将继续监控这个情况。但今天就到这里，所以像往常一样，感谢您的收听，请确保您已经订阅并开启了通知，同时在我的X上找到我，这里是特斯拉播客，我们明天见，9月27日的周三。谢谢。