Tesla's "Fake" Optimus Video: The Future or Fraud ⚡️
发布时间 2023-09-25 23:40:44 来源
摘要
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Tesla Lightshow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6_JY6tg1qM
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00:00 - Cybertruck
00:52 - SuC Expansion
1:36 - Thailand's Tesla Expectation
2:49 - Giga Texas Update
3:37 - World Record Tesla Lightshow
3:54 - Giga Berlin
5:09 - Model 3+ Intricacies
5:49 - Wall Connector
5:56 - Model S Japan
6:23 - AOC Caught
7:16 - Tesla Police Fleets
7:50 - Cybertruck Reservations
8:08 - Newsom's Veto
9:13 - Refresher
9:39 - FSD in EU
10:18 - Elon Being Harassed
11:09 - Lucid Gravity
11:31 - Lucid Gets License
12:05 - Polestar 3 at Retail
12:28 - Nissan's EV Commitment
12:52 - SuC Prices Over Time
13:30 - Ford Still Far Apart
13:53 - Starlink
14:05 - Tesla's "Fake" Optimus Video
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#TeslaOptimusRobot #Tesla #TeslaNews
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Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis quick shout out to my newest patron Al P. Thank you for choosing to support the channel.
欢迎来到Electrified，我是你的主持人Dylan Loomis。快速大声喊出我最新的赞助者Al P. 感谢你选择支持这个频道。
Over the weekend, a Reddit user posted this sign said coming soon 75 plus superchargers opening by the end of the year in Las Vegas. And this checks out if you go to supercharge.info, you'll see this map. The Las Vegas strip is right here. The red circles are current Tesla superchargers that are up and running. The blue will be sites that have been permitted and the yellow triangles are going to be sites that are currently under construction. So with these 5 sites that are likely coming soon before the end of this year, that would be about 15 stalls per station to hit that 75 mark opening up before the end of this year.
在周末，一位Reddit用户发布了一张标志，宣称拉斯维加斯今年年底将开设75个以上的超级充电站。如果你访问supercharge.info，你会看到这张地图。拉斯维加斯大道就在这里。红色圆圈表示目前已经启用的特斯拉超级充电站。蓝色表示已经获得许可的站点，黄色三角形代表目前正在建设中的站点。因此，在今年年底之前可能还会有5个新站点启用，每个站点预计有15个充电桩，总计达到75个充电桩。
Thailand's Prime Minister just said that the country expected to receive an investment of $5 billion from Tesla, Google and Microsoft saying Tesla would be looking into an EV manufacturing facility. Microsoft and Google are looking at data centers without detailing whether that $5 billion was per company or combined. We know that Thailand has been offering incentives and tax cuts to try to incentivize some local manufacturing, but as we've been hearing lately, Tesla may not be in a rush to announce its next factory.
泰国总理刚刚表示，该国预计将从特斯拉、谷歌和微软获得50亿美元的投资，特斯拉将考虑建立一个电动汽车制造设施。微软和谷歌正在考虑建立数据中心，但没有具体说明这50亿美元是每家公司还是总共的投资金额。我们知道，泰国一直在提供激励措施和减税，以鼓励本地制造业发展，但正如我们最近所听到的，特斯拉可能并不急于宣布其下一家工厂的消息。
Just a quick refresher, Luhut Panjaiten from Indonesia has said that they're not going to do any expansion for the next one or two years, that was referring to Tesla. He said Elon gives a very clear message about what happened to the global economy and concern also about the overcapacity. I'd also add with Tesla working on the next gen platform now at Austin, it's going to take some time for them to figure it out there before they have a design that they're ready to then export to this next Gigafactory wherever it may be, because again that's expected to be the factory that makes the next gen platform at scale. And yes, Gig in Mexico will eventually be one of them, but it sounds like that might not be until 2027.
只是一个简单的提醒，来自印度尼西亚的Luhut Panjaitan表示，他们在未来一两年内不会进行任何扩张，这是指特斯拉。他说埃隆对全球经济的情况发出了非常明确的信息，并且也对产能过剩表示担忧。我还要补充一点，特斯拉正在奥斯汀开发下一代平台，他们需要一些时间来弄清楚，在该地设计出他们准备好要出口到下一座超级工厂的产品，因为预计该工厂将在大规模生产下一代平台。是的，墨西哥的超级工厂最终也会成为其中之一，但听起来可能要等到2027年才会建设。
This morning we have Joe Tettmaia reporting that at Gigatexis all employees are back to work today, training, final prep, test production of Model Y bodies, and at least two master candidate cyber trucks produced an image today outside, saying everything should be back to operational status to resume full production by next week. He also shared some images of the crash testing facility at Gigatexis saying it's about ready to do the first crash test very soon. So here's the outside of this facility. And then we get a glimpse into the inside and you can see this second Model Y back here does indeed have crash test dummies in the front seats. Joe also shared this image saying it's a brief look into the casting where the furnace is to recycle aluminum that's completing installation.
今天早上，我们有乔·特特迈亚报道，在Gigatexis的员工已经全部回到工作岗位，今天进行培训，最后准备，测试生产Model Y车身，至少有两台候选研究生级别的Cybertruck在外面拍摄了一张照片，表示下周一切应该能恢复正常以继续全面生产。他还分享了Gigatexis的碰撞测试设施的一些图片，表示很快就要进行首次碰撞测试。所以这是该设施的外部图片。然后我们可以往内部看一眼，您可以看到后面交付的这第二辆Model Y确实在前座有碰撞测试假人。乔还分享了这张图片，表示这是一个简短的介绍，展示了安装完毕的铸造设备的铸造车间，用于回收铝材。
This was a pretty cool video shared by Real Rusty on YouTube, apparently a world record 255 Teslas putting on a Tesla light show, this was done in part by Tesla Club Austria for an EV event in Germany. So I thought that was pretty neat.
这是由Real Rusty在YouTube上分享的一段非常酷的视频，显然是255辆特斯拉打造的一场特斯拉灯光秀世界纪录，其中一部分是由奥地利特斯拉俱乐部为德国的一次电动汽车活动所组织。所以我觉得这非常有意思。
Tesla recruiting shared a really nice video saying to date 60 death employees are part of the Gigabralin team, a large portion being Ukrainians who fled the war. I won't share all of them but they did touch on some really nice heartwarming stories of people leaving terrible situations and finding a home at Tesla. Along similar lines Tesla has a job placement program for veterans also at Gigabralin. The first retired soldiers under a special program will begin working at Gigabralin. The company said about 50 military personnel are in the active recruitment process. This military transition program started at Tesla around November of last year and some of these workers will start in logistics, maintenance and security. Alexandra shared this article over the weekend and it said currently there are more than 300 full time positions advertised in Grunhida. This is not for military specific, this is just general positions. It has been said in the past Tesla pays significantly better than his customary locally. But it'd be great to get an update on Gigabralin on the Q3 call because we've been hearing that Tesla has been having trouble hiring for Gigabralin. Which is why production has reportedly been below where it could be.
特斯拉招聘公开分享了一个非常好的视频，称迄今为止，有60名死亡员工是Gigafactory团队的一部分，其中很大一部分是逃离战争的乌克兰人。我不会分享全部内容，但他们确实涉及了一些非常温暖人心的故事，讲述了人们离开糟糕的处境，并在特斯拉找到了一个家的经历。在类似的情况下，特斯拉还为老兵提供工作安置计划，也在Gigafactory进行。根据一个特殊计划，第一批退役士兵将开始在Gigafactory工作。公司表示，目前有大约50名军事人员正在积极招募过程中。该军事过渡计划在去年11月左右在特斯拉开始，其中一些工人将在物流、维护和安保等岗位上开始工作。亚历山德拉在周末分享了这篇文章，其中提到目前在格兰希达有超过300个全职职位正在招聘。这并不是针对军事人员的特定招聘，而是普通职位。过去有人说特斯拉的薪酬明显高于当地的标准。但是在第三季度发布会上能否对Gigafactory的情况进行更新会非常好，因为我们已经听说特斯拉在招聘Gigafactory方面遇到了困难，这也是据报道造成其生产低于可能水平的原因。
This was posted a few weeks ago but was making its rounds this weekend. This coming from a design execution team member at Tesla. He shared a few Model 3 Plus intricacies that may have been overlooked. They worked on gap and flush control improvements around the headlamps beneath the fascia surface to achieve the flush appearance which is important for aerodynamics and he noted some improvements to the door open in closed sounds as well. He also mentioned the genuine aluminum detailing on the console, soft foamed pillars and headliner, soft wrapped surfaces, hidden microphones and speakers behind the trim and more. Just a few details that may have been missed.
这是几周前发布的，但在这个周末开始传播。消息来自特斯拉设计执行团队的成员。他分享了一些可能被忽视的Model 3 Plus细节。他们在前保险杠表面下的大灯周围进行了间隙和平整控制的改进，以实现平整外观，这对于空气动力学很重要，他还提到了门开关声音的一些改进。他还提到了中控台上真正的铝制细节、柔软泡沫支柱和车顶内衬、软包覆表面、隐藏的修饰板后的麦克风和扬声器等等。这些只是可能被忽视的一些细节。
The Tesla wall connector now will cost 9,000 credits up from 5,500 before. Over the weekend deliveries of the refreshed Model S have resumed in Japan. In case you're wondering yes, Japan is a right hand drive country but Tesla no longer makes the right hand drive variants of the SNX. So Tesla will be selling left hand drive variants in Japan which are usually seen as a status symbol. Before the refresh Tesla was only selling a few hundred of these per quarter in Japan so the new number going forward may be lower than that.
特斯拉墙式充电器的价格现在从之前的5,500信用点上涨至9,000信用点。在周末，刷新后的Model S开始在日本交付。如果你在疑惑，是的，日本是右驾驶国家，但特斯拉不再生产SNX的右驾驶型号。因此，特斯拉将在日本销售左驾驶的型号，而这通常被认为是一种身份象征。在刷新之前，特斯拉每个季度只在日本销售几百台这样的车型，因此未来销量可能会低于这个数字。
One of the things that's happening in the auto industry as you know is this market shift and transition to electric vehicles. You were quoted back in July saying you look forward to buying a union made electric vehicle but you buy but you currently have a non union made Tesla. You a.w. already makes some electric vehicles. So why wasn't that? Is it a problem with the quality? Is it a problem with the style? Is the market just not there? No, our car was purchased during the pandemic when travel mass before a vaccine had come out. Travel between New York and Washington the safest way that we had determined was an EV but that was prior to some of the new models coming out on the market that had the range available but we're actually looking into trading in our car now.
正如您所知，汽车行业正在发生的一件事情是市场向电动车的转变。您在七月份曾表示期待购买由工会制造的电动车，但您目前拥有的是一辆非工会制造的特斯拉。亚当斯通汽车已经生产了一些电动车，那为什么我们没有选择购买？是车辆质量的问题吗？还是风格的问题？还是市场需求不足？不，我们购买这辆车是在疫情期间，疫苗推出之前。我们认为在纽约和华盛顿之间旅行，最安全的方式是使用电动车。但那时市场上尚未有一些新型号的电动车，它们具备所需的续航里程。不过，我们现在正在考虑更换我们的汽车。
So. Over the weekend this article was talking about the Auburn City Council in California approving the decision to buy a Tesla for their police fleet. They're making mistakes saying Model Y, Model 3, either way though it sounds like they decided to reallocate funds that were going to buy a Chevy Tahoe but now instead they'll end up with a Tesla. And interesting anecdote they said there was a lack of police vehicles available for purchase that led the department to transition to buying a Tesla and most importantly the police department will evaluate the reasonableness of implementing additional EVs into its fleet. I'm not going to draw any conclusions from this but I did want to pass it along so maybe you can check your own if you have a Cybertruck reservation number starting with 112 you now may be missing your specs.
所以，上周末有一篇文章提到加利福尼亚奥本市议会批准购买特斯拉作为警车车队的决定。他们可能搞错了车型，不管是Model Y还是Model 3，总之他们决定重新分配原本用来购买雪佛兰Tahoe的资金，现在最终将会有一辆特斯拉。有趣的是，他们说由于缺乏可购买的警车，这促使该警局转而购买特斯拉，更重要的是警局将评估将更多电动车投入车队的合理性。我不会从中得出任何结论，但是我想转达这个消息，这样你如果有以112开头的Cybertruck预订号码，现在可能会缺少一些规格。
The theory goes that this would be the first delivery cohort but again no confirmation just passing this along. Gavin Newsom has V-Toad Assembly Bill 316 which would have required human attendance in driverless vehicles over 10,000 pounds. In his message he said it's unnecessary for the regulation and oversight of heavy duty autonomous vehicle tech adding the existing regulatory framework is sufficient. He also noted the California DMV was given regulatory authority over autonomous vehicles in the state. The DMV consults the state highway patrol, NHTSA and others with relevant experience to write laws to ensure autonomous vehicle safety. So in effect the DMV also regulates robot axis. Of course many people are not loving that veto because they're worried about future job laws. To which Newsom said that he would work with the labor and workforce department to work with stakeholders to recommend ways to mitigate the damage of self-driving trucks that they may have on employment. Remember California is a very important state to watch because when it comes to plans and policies many other states are just following whatever California chooses to do.
这个理论认为，这可能是第一个送货队，但是没有确认，只是传达一下。加文·纽森推出了V-Toad 316议案，该议案要求在重型无人驾驶车辆（超过10,000磅）上需要人员陪同。在他的信息中，他表示这种规定和监督重型自动驾驶技术是不必要的，现行监管框架已经足够。他还指出，加州车辆管理局被授予了对自动驾驶车辆的监管权。车辆管理局与州高速巡警、国家公路交通安全管理局等有相关经验的机构进行磋商，制定法律以确保自动驾驶车辆的安全。因此，实际上车辆管理局也管理着机器人轴。当然，很多人并不喜欢纽森的否决意见，因为他们担心未来的就业法律。对此，纽森表示，他将与劳工和劳动力部门合作，与利益相关方合作，以推荐减轻自动驾驶卡车对就业的影响的方法。请记住，加利福尼亚州是一个非常重要的州，我们需要密切关注，因为在计划和政策方面，许多其他州都只是跟随加利福尼亚州的决定。
This report was making its rounds this weekend but we actually touched on this weeks ago in case you missed it or forgot though it's just saying the 10 year maintenance cost for the average BMW amount to 25% of the original purchase price. Down here in 13th. Meanwhile the 10 year cost of maintaining the average Tesla is just 7% of the original purchase price the least of any luxury brand. It looks like starting today over in the EU we have the working party on automated and autonomous and connected vehicles in their 17th session operating from today for the next 4 days. Clicking around I was able to find the agenda where they mention functional requirements for automated and autonomous vehicles, validation methods for automated driving and data storage systems for automated driving. And a host of other topics all related to AI in vehicles and autonomy so hopefully these sessions help to pave the way for FSD being approved in Europe and eventually released.
这份报告在本周末开始流传，但事实上我们在几周前已经提到过，以防你错过或忘记了。报告指出，平均宝马车的十年维护成本占原始购买价格的25％。在这方面，特斯拉的平均十年维护成本仅占原始购买价格的7％，是豪华品牌中最低的。从今天开始，欧盟的自动驾驶和互联汽车工作组将进行为期四天的第17次会议。我查看了议程，他们提到了自动驾驶和无人驾驶汽车的功能要求、自动驾驶验证方法以及自动驾驶数据存储系统。还有一系列与车辆中的人工智能和自主性相关的其他话题，希望这些会议能够为欧洲自动完全驾驶（FSD）的获批和最终发布铺平道路。
There was an interesting piece from the Wall Street Journal that was basically highlighting all of the attacks on Elon Musk and suggesting that he's kind of become public enemy number 1. I'm not going to dive into this because over the past few months we have covered all of these but this just aggregates all of these interesting investigations that are taking place against Elon and his companies. So whether it's demands for documents or complaints related to the dress code at Tesla, all of these things with the DOJ investigations add up to a collection of probes into Elon's ventures that are unusual enough to suggest what the Justice Department likes to call a pattern or practice. I just think this is something we should all store in the back of our minds and then over the next year or to watch how this changes if at all if the political environment changes.
《华尔街日报》有一篇有趣的文章，基本上强调了对埃隆·马斯克的所有攻击，并暗示他已经成为公众敌人之一。我不会深入讨论这个问题，因为在过去的几个月里，我们已经对所有这些进行了报道，但这篇文章汇总了所有这些有趣的调查，这些调查针对埃隆和他的公司进行。无论是要求提供文件的要求，还是与特斯拉的着装规定相关的投诉，这些与司法部的调查有关的事情，足以表明司法部所称的模式或惯例。我只是认为我们都应该把这个记在脑后，然后在接下来的一年里观察这种情况是否会有所变化，尤其是在政治环境发生变化的情况下。
For the latest on Lucid's upcoming SUV, the Gravity, a formal reveal of the crossover is expected this year according to Lucid with production next year and auto forecast solutions is guessing deliveries will come in the third quarter of 2024. Lucid reiterated it will have greater electric range than any SUV on the market today.
关于露骑士即将推出的SUV车型“Gravity”，露骑士表示预计今年将正式公开揭示该跨界SUV，并计划明年开始生产，而汽车预测解决方案则猜测交付将在2024年第三季度进行。露骑士再次强调，该车型的电动续航里程将超过目前市场上任何一款SUV车型。
Speaking of Lucid, it just got its operating license to start ED production in one of Saudi Arabia's special economic zones that offers certain types of incentives. They're still touting plans to make 150,000 EVs annually at this Saudi facility but they are saying that Lucid will reassemble air electric sedan models pre-built in Arizona. Either way they said mass production is expected to begin by next year. Bear in mind Lucid's registrations in the United States were under 3,800 for the first 7 months of this year.
说到Lucid，它刚刚获得了运营许可证，在沙特阿拉伯的一家特殊经济区开始了电动汽车（ED）的生产，该经济区提供了一些刺激措施。他们仍然宣称计划每年在这家沙特工厂生产15万辆电动汽车，但他们称Lucid将在亚利桑那州事先组装好的空气电动轿车模型。无论如何，他们表示预计明年开始大规模生产。请记住，Lucid在今年前7个月在美国的注册量不到3,800辆。
Just a heads up, Polestar has opened its first retail location in North Carolina specifically in Charlotte. And they said as of September 21, all 31 Polestar spaces in North America now featured the Polestar 3 SUV display prototype in showrooms. One that I've really been wanting to see in person and I'm waiting for one closer to where I'm at.
提醒一下，Polestar在北卡罗来纳州的夏洛特开设了第一家零售店。并且据他们称，从9月21日起，北美地区的所有31家Polestar店铺都将展示Polestar 3 SUV的展示原型。这是我一直渴望亲眼看到的，并且我正在等待更接近我的地方有一家店铺。
Despite the UK postponing its 2030 ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars to 2035, Nissan has come out and committed to all vehicles sold in Europe being electric by 2030. Nissan's boss said the move was the right thing to do. And they're saying Nissan is the only car company to have its own battery manufacturing capabilities in the UK. Now they have to walk the walk but it's good to hear.
尽管英国将其禁止销售汽油和柴油车辆的截止日期推迟到2035年，但日产公司已表示到2030年在欧洲销售的所有车辆都将是电动车。日产的老板表示这是正确的做法。而且他们还说日产是唯一一家在英国拥有自己电池制造能力的汽车公司。现在他们必须言行一致，但这听起来很不错。
A user on Reddit shared a very interesting chart now this is just personal data so certainly nothing official but it's the price of electricity at 67 superchargers he's been to over the past 6 years. Back in 2018, if you take a rough average it was around 15 cents per kilowatt hour. Fast forward 5 years or so and the new average now sits in the neighborhood of 35 cents per kilowatt hour. Nope this highlights one the rising price of electricity but two the importance and benefit of charging at home where most of the time rates will be below most of the data points on this graph.
一个Reddit用户分享了一张非常有趣的图表，这只是个人数据，因此肯定不是什么官方数据，但它显示了他在过去6年中去过的67个超级充电站的电费价格。回到2018年，如果你算一个大概的平均值，每千瓦时大约是15美分。快进5年左右，现在的平均价格已经接近35美分每千瓦时了。这不仅突显了电费的上涨，也突显了在家充电的重要性和好处，因为大部分时间，在家充电的价格通常低于这个图表上的大部分数据点。
Last week we heard that UAW and Ford were making progress on negotiations but that GM and Stellantis were still pretty far apart from where the UAW was at. Over the weekend Ford said on Sunday despite progress in some areas it still has significant gaps to close on key economic issues before it can reach a deal with a UAW. Sadly that's the only real new information we get with this article.
上周我们听说美国汽车工人联合会（UAW）和福特的谈判取得了进展，但通用汽车（GM）和斯泰克拉斯蒂斯（Stellantis）与UAW的立场仍相去甚远。在周末，福特在周日表示尽管在某些领域取得了一些进展，但在关键的经济问题上仍存在重大分歧，需要弥合这些分歧才能与UAW达成协议。可悲的是，这篇文章中的这个信息是我们所得到的唯一真实的新信息。
And Starlink is now available on all 7 continents in over 60 countries and many more markets connecting over 2 million active customers and counting with high speed internet.
Starlink目前在全球7大洲的60多个国家以及许多其他市场提供服务，连接超过200万活跃客户并持续增加中，为他们提供高速互联网。
So here we have it. All the chatter this weekend has been about the video Tesla released on the progress it's making with Optimus and rightfully so. Naturally we have a cohort of people saying Optimus is worth trillions and is about to replace all labor and others are saying the video is CGI and it's fake it's staged by Tesla. So who's right?
所以我们来看看吧。这个周末的讨论都集中在特斯拉发布的有关Optimus技术进展的视频上，而且有理由如此。当然，我们还有一些人声称Optimus价值数万亿，并将取代所有劳动力，还有人说视频是CGI技术制作的，是特斯拉安排的假视频。那么到底是谁对呢？
Tesla has said what we saw is trained fully end to end. Video in and controls out just like Tesla's FSD12. This would lead us to believe Optimus is already using the same framework to learn at an advanced pace. And it took Tesla 7 plus years to figure out and to bring to operation 4FSD. Yes, this has absurd implications. With time, the brain that Optimus has, the neural networks, will be fed video footage of a task and without any human code or programming, Optimus will be able to learn and ultimately mimic that task while also learning to dynamically adjust when the real world throws curveballs.
特斯拉表示，我们看到的是完全端对端训练的。就像特斯拉的FSD12一样，视频输入和控制输出。这让我们相信Optimus已经在以高级速度学习同样的框架。而特斯拉花了7年多的时间来研究并实施4FSD。是的，这具有荒谬的影响。随着时间的推移，Optimus大脑中的神经网络将通过视频任务来进行训练，而无需任何人为编码或编程，Optimus将能够学习和最终模仿该任务，同时学会在现实世界中出现变化时进行动态调整。
But the question still needs to be posed how much is being done with heuristics or code as some things may be better suited for heuristics at this stage especially for clearly defined simple tasks. But first the video itself. We see the self calibration but how often does Optimus have to do this? After every charge, every time it's powered down, once, Optimus can already precisely locate its limbs in space using its 6 cameras. And the dots you see are reference points, helping it to create a 3D version of itself. And while this yoga pose may just seem like a playful demonstration, don't overlook the balancing properties. A huge hurdle for Optimus will be the ability to bend down, pick things up, and walk over different terrains while holding and manipulating heavier objects. Balance is of course a critical component of that ability.
但问题仍然需要提出，到底有多少是通过启发式算法或者代码来完成的，因为一些任务可能在这个阶段特别适合使用启发式算法，尤其是那些明确定义的简单任务。但首先，看一下视频本身。我们可以看到自我校准，但Optimus需要多久执行一次自我校准呢？每次充电后，每次关闭电源后，还是只需要执行一次？Optimus已经可以使用它的6个摄像头在空间中精确定位它的肢体了。你看到的点是参考点，帮助它创建一个自己的3D版本。虽然这个瑜伽动作可能只是一个有趣的演示，但不要忽视平衡的重要性。对Optimus来说，一个巨大的障碍将是在低头、拾取物品和在不同地形上行走时保持平衡并操控较重的物体。平衡当然是这种能力的一个关键组成部分。
So Tesla's building the brain for Optimus with end to end neural networks using much of the same architecture and software as FSD. And Tesla is also building the actuators from scratch because there was nothing available off the shelf. And this is in line with Tesla's desire to vertically integrate as much as possible. As a choke said, Optimus uses additional sensing like audio, proprioception, and temperature just like most animals, but it does not use LiDAR radar ultrasonics or HD map shenanigans. I thought that subtle jab was meaningful. He went on to say it'll become so obvious over the coming years we'll be wondering why anyone thought those were a great idea. He also added neural networks and cameras work amazingly well and really are the solution to robotics, same solution for the car, for Optimus, and will be for all such artificial animals.
特斯拉正在使用端到端神经网络为Optimus打造大脑，采用与FSD相同的架构和软件。特斯拉还从零开始建造执行器，因为没有现成的产品可用。这与特斯拉尽可能实现垂直整合的愿望一致。正如某位发言者所说，Optimus像大多数动物一样使用了额外的感知技术，如音频、本体感知和温度，但不使用激光雷达、超声波或高清地图等技术。我认为这种微妙的讽刺是有意义的。他接着说，随着未来几年的发展，这一点将变得如此明显，我们会想知道为什么有人认为这些技术是个好主意。他还强调神经网络和摄像头的出色表现，它们是机器人技术的解决方案，对于汽车、对于Optimus，以及对于所有类似的人工动物来说都是如此。
Then we have James Dauma saying the body dynamics were so good he was having a hard time believing the video was real and he said this was the neural network based body control he's been waiting to see. Nvidia's senior AI scientist commented that the smooth hand movements are almost certainly being trained by imitation learning or behavior cloning from human operators rather than the bot learning in a simulation, which usually leads to jitter emotion and unnatural hand poses. He was genuinely impressed by the hard work quality, the motions were fluid, and he said the aesthetics were amazing as well. Adding it's a great decision to follow human morphology closely so that there's no gap in imitating humans. Let us not forget Tesla has only been working on Optimus for around 2 years, you may recall this version of Optimus so to look back on the progress that's been made is certainly impressive and does become even more exciting if Optimus really is almost entirely being trained with an end to end neural network. Because this would signal very rapid advancements and learning should be coming in the months ahead.
然后，我们有詹姆斯·道马（James Dauma）说身体动力学非常出色，他很难相信这个视频是真实的。他表示，这就是他一直期待看到的基于神经网络的身体控制。Nvidia的高级人工智能科学家评论说，平滑的手部动作几乎肯定是通过模仿学习或从人类操纵者那里进行行为克隆训练的，而不是机器人通过模拟学习，后者通常导致不自然的手部姿势和颤动情绪。他对工作质量感到非常印象深刻，动作流畅，他还表示美观度也非常惊人。他补充说，密切追踪人体形态是一个很好的决策，这样在模仿人类时就没有断层。不要忘记，特斯拉只花了大约2年时间来研发Optimus，你可能还记得Optimus的这个版本，所以回顾已经取得的进展令人印象深刻，如果Optimus真的几乎完全是通过端到端的神经网络进行训练的，这将标志着非常快速的进步，并且未来几个月将会有更多令人期待的学习进展。
Generally we have plenty of skeptics sprouting up right now saying the video's fake. Perhaps the most widely circulated argument is this video clip where Fly Fortat, a notable Tesla skeptic, is saying one block moves sideways when it shouldn't. If you watch closely though, I think it's the pinky of Optimus releasing the block that grazes the connection point of the block pushing it sideways and backwards. I'd also add it's a bit disrespectful to the engineers spending long hours working on this but this is nothing new for Tesla. This is going to be exactly like the Cybertruck being CGI all over again. People saying it's not real and it'll never enter production.
目前，我们有很多怀疑论者声称这个视频是假的。也许最广为流传的论点就是这个视频片段中，著名特斯拉怀疑论者Fly Fortat说一个方块在不应该移动的地方移动了。但是如果你仔细观察，我认为是Optimus的小指挠到了方块的连接点，把它推向了侧面和后面。我还要补充的是，对于那些长时间努力工作的工程师们来说，这有点不尊重，但对于特斯拉来说，这并不罕见。这将会与前不久的Cybertruck被认为是CGI制作一样，人们说它不是真的，永远不会投入生产。
Or even better, it'll be like people saying Waymo and Cruz are way ahead of Tesla because of SAE level 4 when Tesla's just level 2. From an uninitiated perspective, sure that makes sense but for anyone that actually knows what's going on beneath the surface, understanding the nuances of the situation knows how fraudulently incorrect that take really is.
或者更好的是，这就像人们说Waymo和Cruise在自动驾驶技术方面要远超特斯拉，因为Waymo和Cruise达到了SAE的4级别，而特斯拉只是2级别。从一个外行人的角度来看，这种说法似乎是有道理的，但是对于那些实际了解情况底层运作的人来说，理解这种情况的微妙之处，他们就会知道这种说法是多么欺骗性和错误的。
It's going to be the same with Optimus. We will continually see people shouting that Boston Dynamics is way ahead of Tesla's Optimus. Now first and foremost, anyone making this comparison is a fool. These two are not to be compared. Full stop.
优矩凯司（Optimus）将会出现与波士顿动力（Boston Dynamics）相似的情况。我们会一直看到有人大声疾呼，声称波士顿动力遥遥领先特斯拉的优矩凯司。首先，无论如何，进行这种比较的人都是愚蠢的。这两者不能相提并论。停。
Optimizing for entirely different use cases. Further, Boston Dynamics has been at work for decades. Tesla for two years. BD's Atlas only has simple gripper style hands. Optimus has a bi-dextrous five finger hands that in the long run will be far superior for daily tasks.
为完全不同的使用情况进行优化。此外，波士顿动力公司已经从事这项工作几十年了，而特斯拉只有两年。波士顿动力的Atlas只有简单的握持风格手。Optimus拥有双手灵活、五指的手，从长远来看，在日常任务中将远远优于Atlas。
But one of the biggest questions will always boil down to manufacturability, scale, and cost. And don't forget, the actual real world utility of any robot will be largely dependent on the software. The brain. To be able to adapt and adjust when real world things happen. What happens when a child runs up in grabs Optimus' leg? Optimus has a brain and this means that with time, it should be able to learn and adjust on the fly just as a human would.
但其中一个最重要的问题始终归结为可制造性、规模和成本。而且不要忘记，任何机器人的实际实用性很大程度上取决于软件。即其大脑。它需要能够在真实世界中发生事情时做出适应和调整。当一个孩子跑过来抓住奥普提妮斯的腿时会发生什么？奥普提妮斯有一个大脑，这意味着随着时间的推移，它应该能够像人类一样在运行时学习和调整。
Tesla is optimizing for scalability and real world AI. And while the Boston Dynamics engineering is very impressive, questions still remain about the real world applications, scalability, and cost. And we do still have way more questions about Optimus than answers. How often does it fall? Can it brace itself when falling? How often does it charge? How long does it take to make one? What percentage of the parts are designed in house by Tesla? What are Tesla's plans for deploying the first few hundred bots? Is it using a large language model for prompts yet? I could go on and on, but you get the picture.
特斯拉正在优化可扩展性和真实世界的人工智能。虽然波士顿动力的工程令人印象深刻，但对于真实世界应用、可扩展性和成本仍然存在一些问题。而对于Optimus，我们仍然有更多问题而不是答案。它经常会倒下吗？它能在倒下时自我支撑吗？它经常需要充电吗？制造一个Optimus需要多长时间？有多少零部件是特斯拉自家设计的？特斯拉对于部署前几百个机器人有什么计划？它已经开始使用大型语言模型进行提示了吗？我还可以继续问下去，但你已经了解情况了。
As Elon said, Tesla is making progress with Optimus, but I'm not going to be another voice wildly speculating about market cap implications, job displacement, or ultimate costs. Not yet. The way I see it, there are just too many unknowns. We will need another AI day to learn more, to see a live demonstration, to hear about production methods, initial applications, and the like.
正如埃隆所说，特斯拉正在与Optimus取得进展，但我不会成为另一个对市值影响、失业或最终成本进行荒唐猜测的声音。还不是时候。以我看来，有太多未知因素。我们需要再有一个AI日来更多了解，现场观看演示，了解生产方法、初步应用等等。
And if you're wondering why Tesla stock hasn't moved today, then I've failed you if you've been around the channel for any amount of time. Short term Tesla stock movements are a terrible proxy for understanding fundamental progress being made at Tesla.
如果你想知道为什么特斯拉的股票今天没有动静，那么如果你已经关注本频道一段时间，我就辜负了你。短期的特斯拉股票波动并不能很好地代表特斯拉所取得的基本发展进展。
As Gary Black said, him and most of Wall Street don't include some of Tesla's biggest breakthroughs in their models at all, and Optimus is no different. It's not going to get any credit in the stock price until Tesla starts earning revenue or saving money from Optimus, which could still be years away. But as always, with Tesla, it's about the long game and the longer the players on the sideline don't understand and remain skeptical, the higher the stock trajectory will be when these breakthrough innovations actually hit the market.
正如Gary Black所说，他和华尔街的大多数人根本没有将特斯拉的一些最重要的突破性进展纳入他们的模型中，而Optimus也不例外。直到特斯拉开始通过Optimus创收或节省费用，这可能还需要几年时间，Optimus才不会在股价中获得任何认可。但与特斯拉一直如此，这是一场长期的游戏，只要观望者不理解并持怀疑态度，这些突破性创新真正进入市场时，股价的轨迹就会更高。
So the hyperboles are probably a bit over their skis, and the skeptics are still totally lost in the sauce sipping on Haterade. The truth lies in the middle, but if you have time on your side, the truth lies much closer to the hyperbole arguments.
所以夸大其词可能有些过分，而怀疑者们仍然完全迷失在抱怨中。真相在中间，但如果你有足够的时间，事实更接近夸张的论点。
And when you start to compare Tesla's Optimus to the robots from Ford and GM, well, you begin to see the monumental differences between the companies and why Tesla is deserving of a much larger valuation multiple.
当你开始将特斯拉的Optimus与福特和通用汽车的机器人进行比较时，你会开始看到这些公司之间的巨大差异，也会理解为什么特斯拉应当获得更高的估值倍数。
What I do know for sure though is this, the next two years plus are going to be some of the most exciting times in the world of Tesla, and if you've been around the past decade, you'll understand the weight of that statement.
虽然我确切地知道的是，在接下来的两年多时间里，特斯拉的世界将会迎来一些最令人兴奋的时刻。如果你在过去的十年中一直跟随特斯拉的发展，你会理解这段陈述的重要性。
So buckle up because yes, Optimus is absolutely going to change the world, but it's also true we have a long journey ahead before this actually happens at scale. So for now, we just enjoy the process and the progress that Tesla is making and as always, patience will be rewarded.
所以，系好安全带吧，因为是的，奥普蒂马斯绝对将改变世界，但在这个愿景真正变得广泛普及之前，我们还有漫长的旅程。现在，我们只需要享受特斯拉在这个过程中所取得的进展，一如既往地保持耐心，回报将会丰厚。