Cybertruck “Very Safe”, FSD Coming Soon Says Ellison + Fed Bumps Rate Outlook

Hey everybody Rob Maye we're here and today we've got some interesting new comments from Larry Ellison of Oracle on FSD and on the Cyber Truck. We'll take a look at that in a second. We also have updates on the FOMC meeting today of course and a few other items as well.

大家好，Rob Maye在这里。今天，我们从甲骨文的拉里·埃里森那里收到了一些关于FSD和Cyber Truck的有趣新评论。我们稍后会详细了解一下。当然，我们还会对FOMC会议的最新进展以及其他几个项目进行更新。

By looking at the stock Tesla today down one and a half percent, kind of an interesting day with the FOMC meeting midday, the NASDAQ also down one and a half percent. I pulled up the charts for both so you can kind of see the comparison that happened throughout the day. That day Tesla did spike before the FOMC meeting, I'm not really sure exactly what happened there. It did seem to be Tesla specific though as we don't see a similar spike in the NASDAQ during that period of time. I did read some comments that maybe it was relating to a Morgan Stanley conference that was happening at that point.

今天看到特斯拉的股价下跌了一点五个百分点，这是一个相当有趣的一天，因为在中午有FOMC会议，纳斯达克指数也下跌了一点五个百分点。我查看了两者的图表，你可以看到它们在一天中发生的比较情况。在FOMC会议之前，特斯拉的股价确实有所上升，但我不确定具体发生了什么。然而，似乎这是特斯拉特定的情况，因为在那段时间内，纳斯达克指数没有出现类似的上升。我读到一些评论，可能与当时的摩根士丹利会议有关。

So I haven't found details on that yet if you do have more details on that pass it along. That could be what drove that spike earlier today. But we'll try to figure that out but in the meantime after that Tesla did decline after the FOMC meeting and during the press conference from Fred Jair Jerome Powell alongside the market although with a bigger beta for Tesla and ultimately ending in pretty much the exact same spot as the NASDAQ.

所以我还没有找到关于那个的详细信息，如果你有更多关于那个的细节，请传递给我。那可能是导致今天早些时候股价飙升的原因。但在此期间，在FOMC会议和弗雷德·杰尔·鲍威尔(Fred Jair Jerome Powell)的新闻发布会期间，特斯拉的股价下降，并与市场一起下跌，尽管特斯拉的贝塔值较高，但最终与纳斯达克基本上处于相同的水平。

So getting into the FOMC meeting we'll go through this pretty quick. There wasn't a whole lot here in my opinion as the expectation indicated rates were expected to be held. That was the case and you can see from the difference checker here in the previous statement back in July I believe versus now the updated statement. Not many changes. You can see they changed the wording on economic activity expanding at a solid pace versus moderate pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong versus job gains have been robust in recent months and then just maintaining rates down there. So not really anything too different in the statement just a little bit there on jobs.

进入FOMC会议，我将快速浏览一下。我个人认为，在此次会议中并没有太多重要内容，因为预期显示利率将保持不变。事实也是如此，您可以从之前的声明（我认为是七月份的声明）与现在更新的声明中看到区别。变化不多。您可以看到他们将经济活动的措辞从"适度增长"改为"稳健增长"。就业增长在最近几个月有所放缓，但仍然强劲，而不是就业增长在最近几个月一直强劲，然后在下方维持利率不变。因此，在声明中并没有太大区别，只是在就业方面稍微有些变动。

And then if we get into there's a statement there. The bigger change is to the summary of economic projections or SAP. So here I've got the dot plot as it's called. So this is each member of the FOMC their expectation for where interest rates go over the next couple of years. So this is the one from July or I think rather from June in this case. And this is the one from today updated for the September meeting. You can see that they did add a year so just when we flip back and forth between these keep that in mind. But in general interest rate expectations across the FOMC did increase.

然后，如果我们进入那里，那里有一个陈述。更大的变化是关于经济展望摘要或SAP。所以我这里有所谓的点阵图。这是FOMC每个成员对未来几年内利率走势的预期。这是7月份的一个，或者更准确地说是6月份的。这是今天的，更新了9月份的会议。你可以看到他们增加了一年，所以在这些之间切换时要记住这一点。但总的来说，FOMC的利率预期有所增加。

So if we look at 2025 previously, you know, you can put the median here somewhere around three and a half percent. Now the median rising up to about four percent just roughly speaking. So basically seeing a Fed participants seeing interest rates staying higher for longer. I think a lot of that due to stronger economic activity that we've been seeing. So they did increase their GDP expectations by, you know, a few basis points or a few tens of basis points for 2023 and 2024 held it for 2025. But I think that is part of what's driving the expectation now for higher interest rates for longer. So that's kind of what we've moved to. There is still the expectation for maybe one more increase later this year. So we'll see on that. If we look at the FOMC or sorry, the Fed tracker or the care. I remember we'll take all this the Fed watch tool from the from CME group.

所以，如果我们回顾2025年，你知道，你可以把中值大致放在3.5%左右。现在，中值上升到大约4%，这只是粗略地说。基本上，美联储参与者认为利率会保持较高水平较长时间。我认为这在很大程度上是由于我们所见到的经济活动更强劲所导致的。因此，他们对2023年和2024年的国内生产总值预期增加了一些基点或几十个基点，而对2025年则保持不变。但我认为这正是目前对较长时间利率上升的预期所推动的一部分。所以这就是我们的变化。仍然有预期今年晚些时候可能会再加息一次。所以我们拭目以待。如果我们看FOMC，或者说，看Fed追踪器或关怀指数。还记得，我们将使用CME集团的Fed观察工具来综合这一切。

It looks like interest rate expectations largely unchanged for the November meeting. As compared to yesterday, sometimes this tool is a little bit wonky. I'm just going to refresh this just to see if there's any changes. It's a little bit wonky of the day of the update, but largely speaking, no major changes in expectations for for November. If we flip to December, you can see also pretty similar to to what we had seen before, maybe a little bit higher for 25 to 50 basis point increases across that period of time. Nevertheless, the market reacting negatively, at least during the FOMC conference. I did listen to that, but nothing too noteworthy there that I think we need to talk about. Obviously, the chair Jerome Powell just continued to say that they'll see how things come in and adjust from there. I think that's largely the takeaway.

对于11月的会议，利率预期似乎没有发生大的变化。与昨天相比，这个工具有时候有点不准确。我只是想刷新一下，看看有没有任何变化。在更新的当天有一点不准确，但总的来说，对于11月并没有太大的预期变化。如果我们看12月，可以看到基本和之前看到的相似，可能在那段时间内会有25到50个基点的升幅。然而，市场对FOMC会议的反应是负面的。我确实听了那个会议，但没有什么特别值得注意的地方需要讨论。显然，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔只是继续说他们将看情况调整。我认为这基本上是主要的要点。

All right. So getting into the Tesla news, again, we don't have a whole lot today, but we do have some interesting comments from Oracle's Larry Ellison. I'm just going to play this quick clip here, pretty short. Let me make sure that the audio is set up, but he did talk about Cybershark and FSD. So I just want to play that one second here, and we'll get that rolling.

好的。关于特斯拉的新闻，今天我们没有太多信息，但是我们从甲骨文公司的拉里·埃里森那里听到了一些有趣的评论。我这里要播放一个很短的剪辑，请让我确认一下音频设置。他谈到了Cybershark和FSD，我想播放一下这段音频，稍等片刻。

Our next generation police car is coming out very soon. It's my favorite police car. It's my favorite car, actually. It's Elon's favorite car. It's incredible. I know too much about it. Some of it's still to be disposed. But among other things, it's very safe, very fast. It's got a stainless steel body. We don't have to add a screen to it because we don't have to add cameras to it because we actually used our existing cameras and their existing screen to put our application, our application up for people in the Tesla vehicles.

我们下一代警车即将推出，是我最喜欢的警车，其实也是我最喜欢的车子，Elon也很喜欢。它太棒了，我对它了解很多。有些细节还没有公开，但是除此之外，它非常安全，速度也很快。它采用了不锈钢车身。由于我们可以利用现有的摄像头和屏幕，在特斯拉车辆中为人们提供我们的应用程序，所以我们不需要为它添加屏幕和摄像头。

All right. So a couple of pretty interesting comments there. Obviously, just seeing the Cybershark there is pretty exciting as well. But his comments about the vehicle being very fast. I think we all knew that that was going to be the case. Very safe, no surprise with Tesla vehicles, but that's kind of been a question, especially with this new sort of design or significantly new design departure for a pickup truck, how that would come through in the safety tests. We saw Tesla tease that video, I think, back in April of the Cybershark crash testing. Larry Ellison may have some insight on how that whole crash testing has gone. And hopefully, his comment here might be a little bit more informed that this vehicle is going to ultimately be very safe in terms of those performance results. So excited to hear that comment.

好的。有几条相当有趣的评论。显然，只是看到Cybershark真的很令人兴奋。但他关于这辆车非常快的评论，我觉得我们大家都知道这是肯定会发生的。特斯拉汽车非常安全，这一点也不奇怪，但对于一款皮卡车来说，尤其是这种全新的设计，我们一直有疑问的就是它在安全测试中的表现。我们在4月份看到特斯拉发布了Cybershark碰撞测试的视频预告片。拉里·埃里森可能对整个碰撞测试进行了一些了解。希望他的评论能够更加客观，表示这款车在性能测试中最终会非常安全。非常期待听到这样的评论。

And then also interesting to hear him talk about how they would be integrating their software for police vehicles with Tesla's camera feeds with the screen in the Tesla vehicles, you know, natively versus having to, I think, a lot of the police vehicles that we've seen that have incorporated Tesla so far, they've sort of still had to have a little laptop mounted there and things like that. And maybe they still would in this case too. But the more that that can be integrated, the better experience that that is going to be for police and the more likely they are to then adopt this vehicle for their fleet. So I think that's exciting that Oracle is working on this. Obviously, Elon and Larry Ellison are quite close. So not very surprising, I wouldn't say. But if that can be something that helps drive fleet sales to police, obviously that's going to be a win for the Cybershark.

然后听他谈论他们将如何将软件与特斯拉的摄像头视频集成到警车上的屏幕上，与我们所见过的很多警车不同，它们通常需要安装一个小型笔记本电脑等等。或许在这种情况下他们仍然需要这样做。但是只要能够更好地集成，对于警察来说体验就会更好，他们也更有可能采用这款汽车作为他们的车队。所以我认为甲骨文正在开发这个项目非常令人兴奋。显然，埃隆·马斯克和拉里·埃里森之间关系非常密切，所以这并不令人意外。但是如果这能够推动警车车队销售，显然对赛博鲨至关重要，这将是一次胜利。

Plus, I think, you know, most police would probably really like to be in a vehicle like this that, you know, as Tesla demonstrated, should have bulletproof panels, should have the armored glass, even with the, you know, the snafu of the release of the, you know, introduction of the prototype back in 2019 with the windows breaking or cracking. But there should be, you know, maybe that's what Larry Ellison's very safe comments are referring to. But this should be, you know, a vehicle that should already have high adoption amongst police. And if there's even smoother seamless integration of Tesla's camera feeds and software like this, I think that is very exciting.

此外，我认为大多数警察可能真的很想坐在这样的车辆里，就像特斯拉展示的那样，它应该配备防弹板和装甲玻璃，尽管在2019年原型车发布时出现了窗玻璃破裂的问题。或许这就是拉里·埃里森(Larry Ellison)所谈到的非常安全的评论所指的，但这款车本应已经在警察中得到广泛采用。而且，如果特斯拉的摄像头和软件能够更顺畅地集成到这样的车辆中，我认为这非常令人兴奋。

Now the other comment that Larry Ellison had on the, on FSD, this was a little bit earlier in his presentation today. He was talking about just general artificial intelligence, generative AI right now and how that is, you know, probably going to be one of the biggest changes in technology ever and could be the single biggest change in technology ever. And as a part of that, he brought up Tesla and self-driving cars saying that, as, you know, among the changes that we were going to see, saying, quote, coming soon, very soon, in the next 12 months complete self-driving cars from Tesla, end quote. So again, Larry, you know, he's going to be updated on Elon's thinking on this. Obviously we know Elon's thoughts that that is going to be the case and Larry Ellison could just be parroting that. But, you know, he's going to be pretty well informed about Tesla's strategy with, with FSD 12 and obviously seems to be a believer in that from this comment. It wasn't necessarily the focal point of the presentation, just adding to his points about how disruptive generative AI and AI in general are going to be, how much investment is going after it billions and billions of dollars pouring into AI right now. But nice to have a little bit of a mention there from Larry on that. And again, hopefully builds well for, you know, his expectation or interpretation of how Tesla will progress from here. So so fun to see those couple of comments.

现在是Larry Ellison在今天的演讲中对FSD的另一个评论。他正谈论普遍的人工智能，即生成式人工智能，以及它可能是有史以来最大的技术变革之一并且可能是单一最大技术变革。作为其中的一部分，他提到了特斯拉和自动驾驶汽车，并说，引用，“在不久的将来，特斯拉会在接下来的12个月内推出完全自动驾驶汽车”。所以可以看出，Larry对特斯拉的战略，特别是FSD 12非常了解并且似乎相信这一点。这并不是演讲的重点，只是对潜力深度学习AI和AI的扰乱性的评论的补充。目前已经有数以十亿计的美元投入到AI中。这是非常好的，能够从Larry这里听到这个提及。再次希望这对于他对特斯拉未来的预期和解读有所好处。所以从这些评论中看到是挺有趣的。

We did have a couple of updates to the referral program today from Tesla. They have added a new referral prize. And this is a model three performance. So you can now enter to win this, or you will be automatically entered to win this.

今天特斯拉在转介计划方面进行了几项更新。他们增加了一个新的转介奖品，即Model 3 Performance。因此，您现在可以参与抽奖，有机会赢得这个奖品，或者您将自动参与抽奖。

If you refer someone between yesterday and the end of the quarter, they have to take delivery of the vehicle by the end of the quarter. If they do that, you're automatically entered for a chance to win a model three performance. This has also been added to the referral program in the app for 1000 credits. You can enter into a raffle for this, which apparently will be selected on October 6th. So pretty quick turnaround from, you know, the beginning of the raffle here to win this prize will be awarded just kind of in the first week of Q4.

如果你在昨天和本季度结束之间向某人推荐购买特斯拉汽车，他们必须在本季度结束之前交付该车辆。如果他们成功交付，你将自动有机会赢得一辆Model 3 Performance型号。这项奖励还被添加到了应用程序的推荐计划中，可获得1000积分。你可以参加一个抽奖，抽奖结果将于10月6日公布。从抽奖开始到赢得奖品的颁发，整个过程非常迅速，将在Q4的第一周进行。

I would imagine that we'll continue to see stuff like this. We've actually seen Tesla run programs like this a few years ago, where they had, I think, each quarter they were kind of giving away a model wire, something of that nature. So I wouldn't be too surprised if we see more of these types of promotions as we head into Q4. We've obviously seen Tesla and implement some entry pretty interesting and unique prizes like the factory tour. Another one is the cyber trucks sweepstakes. So this is allowing people to enter again a similar raffle for the cyber truck. One of the first ones off the line. This used to be 500 credits. So with the change here for the performance model three sweepstakes, Tesla's actually also updated the cyber trucks sweepstakes to 1000 credits from 500 before. But still interesting to see that and hopefully, you know, maybe we'll have an audience member when that and look forward to hearing the results of it.

我想我们将会继续看到类似的事情。实际上，几年前我们就见过特斯拉推出类似的计划，他们每个季度都会赠送一个模型车或类似的东西。所以如果我们在第四季度看到更多这类的促销活动，我也不会感到太惊讶。我们当然也看到特斯拉实施了一些非常有趣和独特的奖品，比如参观工厂之旅。另一个是Cybertruck的抽奖活动。所以这允许人们再次参加类似的抽奖活动，赢取Cybertruck中最早生产的一辆。之前这个活动需要500个积分。但是现在特斯拉已经将性能版Model 3的抽奖活动积分提升到了1000个，并且对Cybertruck的抽奖活动也进行了更新。但是看到这个仍然很有趣，希望我们会有一个观众参与其中，并期待听到结果。

All right, quick update also on the cyber truck. Tesla owners East Bay and Fremont has noted that the sort of check in sheet, I believe this is for Tesla service is now indicating or is now including a spot for the cyber truck to, you know, to be indicated for service. So just a little administrative thing, but nice to see some of the groundwork being laid for the eventual delivery and inevitable service that cyber truck will need. You know, exciting to see some of those steps being taken as hopefully we are now. I don't want to say we're like a month away, but could be even within the next month that we start seeing those cyber trucks being delivered.

好的，对于Cybertruck的快速更新也有了一些消息。东湾和弗里蒙特的特斯拉车主们注意到，我相信这是针对特斯拉服务的检查单，现在包括了一个给Cybertruck指明服务的位置。所以这只是一些行政上的小事情，但很高兴看到为将来交付和Cybertruck必然需要的服务铺下了一些基础。你知道，看到这些步骤被采取，真是令人兴奋。希望现在我们已经接近了，虽然我不想说我们只差一个月，但在未来一个月内我们可能就能开始见到Cybertruck的交付了。

All right, last couple of items here. So quick update on a story that we had previously covered a couple of times, which is the lawsuit that had ended with a settlement that resulted in the board agreeing to return about $700 million worth of compensation to Tesla for over compensation claims from 2017 to 2020. So the lawyers that worked on this case, they are now asking as a part of the settlement to be paid $229 million in fees. I would assume that that would come out of the portion that would be returned from the compensation. I'm not 100% sure on that. Maybe it would come on top, but presumably would come from that, which would be a pretty significant chunk of that compensation. Um, registered the math here that nets out to almost $11,000 per hour. Apparently, usually these cases are closer to $2,000 per hour. This wouldn't be the largest per hour fee ever settled. There are there is some precedent for hire, but obviously this is a pretty significant chunk of, um, let's see, of the, of the total compensation. And now I'm actually seeing here the total settlement was valued at $919 million. So 25% of that would be the fee that they're, uh, they're seeking here. So as we had previously mentioned that this is going to the, the center settlement agreements and this compensation would be put in front of the judge in October. So we'll see what the outcome of that is. I think, um, there is opportunity for arguments to be made, you know, still from, I think from the public or from shareholders up until that point, uh, when this is heard by the judge. So, uh, we'll keep an eye on that and should know more on that, uh, the results of that pretty soon.

好的，最后还有几项。关于我们之前报道过几次的一起诉讼，我来简要更新一下。该诉讼最终以和解结束，董事会同意为特斯拉2017年至2020年的过度补偿索赔返还大约价值7亿美元的补偿费。现在，这个案件的律师们要求作为和解的一部分支付他们2.29亿美元的费用。我认为这笔费用可能会从赔偿费中扣除，但我不确定是否会额外支付。假设从赔偿费中扣除的话，这会是一笔相当可观的费用。根据我的计算，这相当于每小时近1.1万美元。显然，通常这些案件的费用每小时接近2,000美元，而这笔费用并非有史以来最高时薪。目前，这相当于总赔偿金额的25%。正如我们之前提到的，这将进入法庭审理并将于十月前提交给法官。因此，在那之前，公众或股东仍有机会提出论点。我们将继续关注并很快就会了解结果。

And then also from Reuters, they've got a report that Tesla has partnered with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. I believe this is the largest bank in Australia to offer loans for vehicles at a rate of 5.49%. I don't know exactly what interest rates are in Australia right now, but I know in the U S that interest rates are, um, or at least auto loan interest rates from Tesla are a little bit higher than this. So obviously still a decently high rate, but more affordable than likely alternatives would be, uh, which is nice to see and should help keep obviously payments lower for customers in Australia, uh, maybe not the biggest bank, but they say biggest lender here. So, um, nice to see that partnership and hopefully that'll again help keep payments a little bit lower for Tesla in Australia.

然后，据路透社报道，特斯拉与澳大利亚联邦银行合作。我相信这是澳大利亚最大的银行，以5.49%的利率提供车辆贷款。我不知道澳大利亚现在的利率是多少，但我知道在美国，特斯拉的汽车贷款利率要高一些。所以显然利率还是相当高的，但比其他可能的选择更可承受，这是一个好消息，应该有助于降低澳大利亚客户的还款额。也许不是最大的银行，但他们在这里说是最大的贷款机构。所以看到这种合作很高兴，希望能再次帮助特斯拉在澳大利亚降低还款压力。

And then lastly here, just a quick update on Starlink and SpaceX. The FCC has approved two new Starlink dishes for SpaceX. Does SpaceX can now begin offering these? We haven't seen to my knowledge. We haven't seen photos of these, but there are two devices here.

最后，在这里我简要更新一下Starlink和SpaceX的情况。FCC已经批准了两个新的用于SpaceX的Starlink天线。SpaceX现在可以开始提供这些了吗？据我所知，我们还没有见过实际照片。但目前有两款设备。

One is about half the surface area, a little bit less than half of the surface area actually of the current Starlink dish. So a very significant reduction in size for this version. And then there is a second larger version that is pretty close to the same size as the current dish, but apparently has higher performance.

其中一个尺寸约为当前的Starlink天线表面积的一半，实际上略小于一半。因此，这个版本的尺寸大大减小。而另一个较大尺寸的版本与当前的天线尺寸相当，但据说性能更高。

So usually when these approvals happen, we do see the product released from SpaceX pretty shortly thereafter. We'll keep an eye out on this for the next couple of weeks. And hopefully we'll see it in that window, but nice to see that approval from the FCC.

通常情况下，当这些批准得到授予时，我们很快就会看到SpaceX发布该产品。在接下来的几周里，我们将持续关注这一情况。希望能在那个时间窗口内看到它的推出，但是很高兴看到FCC批准了。

It does also sound like SpaceX had later added on to this request, the, um, permission from the FCC to make this something that is offered for mobile. So maybe you could, I think you could probably already do this, but you know, with approval, be able to add this to a vehicle or something like that. And they're still waiting for the FCC to rule specifically on that. So we'll see on that one.

好像 SpaceX 后来又增加了一个请求，嗯，即从美国联邦通讯委员会获得这个服务可以用于移动设备的许可。所以也许你已经可以这样做了，但是需要获得批准，才能将其添加到车辆或其他设备上。他们仍在等待美国联邦通讯委员会对此作出具体规定。所以我们拭目以待吧。

But that'll wrap it up for today. So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Thursday, September 21st episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

但是今天就到这里了。所以像往常一样，非常感谢您的收听。请确保已经订阅并接收通知。您也可以在X网上找到我，那里有特斯拉播客。明天我们将会见面，欢迎收听9月21日星期四的特斯拉日报。谢谢！