What’s next for car prices and auto lending? | Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox Automotive

I would argue at least 50% of the market is almost completely priced out. Wow. 50% of the market is priced out of the car industry. Yeah. If you think about the retail vehicle market, the most important number is the monthly payment. 100%. When you look at what households in the US, the distribution of their incomes, about half can only afford about a $400.

我认为至少50%的市场几乎无法负担得起。哇，50%的市场已经无力购买汽车了。对，如果你考虑到零售汽车市场，最重要的数字就是每月付款额。完全正确。当你看美国家庭的收入分布时，大约有一半只能负担得起大约400美元的费用。

What's up, everyone? This is Car D'Oeship Guy. You're listening to the Car D'Oeship Guy podcast, which is my effort to give you access to the most unbiased and transparent insights into the car market. Let's get into today's episode. Jonathan Smok is the chief economist of Cox Automotive, a subsidiary of the $20 billion Cox Enterprises. In this episode, we discussed the state of auto lending and what's to come, how interest rates are impacting the car industry, the number one issue for car shoppers right now, the best and worst car deals on the market, what a UAW strike could mean for the auto industry, winners and losers in the EV space, and will use car prices go back to normal anytime soon.

大家好，这里是Car D'Oeship Guy。你正在收听的是Car D'Oeship Guy的播客，这是我努力为你提供对汽车市场最公正和透明的见解。让我们来看看今天的节目。Jonathan Smok是Cox Automotive的首席经济学家，Cox Automotive是价值200亿美元的Cox Enterprises的子公司。在这一集中，我们讨论了汽车贷款的现状和未来走势，利率如何影响汽车行业，目前汽车购物者最关注的问题，市场上最好和最差的交易，UAW罢工对汽车行业可能意味着什么，电动车领域的赢家和输家，以及二手车价格是否会很快恢复正常。

But before we dive into the show, theft is plaguing dealerships nationwide, losing car keys is an unneeded cost, and searching for keys can lead to bottlenecks in the sales process. Keeper systems has the solution for dealers. The Keeper MX is the number one key control solution in the auto industry, handling millions of transactions per day. It features a 16 gauge steel cabinet with a built-in camera and a puk-lok for additional safety, along with many other features so that dealers can know who took a key when and why. Keeper systems has been in the auto industry for over 40 years and is at over 12,000 dealerships, offering exclusive key control for 6 out of 10 biggest automotive groups in the world. They have a wide range of products that fit the needs of franchise dealers, independent dealers and even the smallest pre-owned lots. New customers can take advantage of my partnership with Keeper systems right now to receive an exclusive discount. All you need to do is visit Keepersystems.com, click on the car dealership guide link, and fill out the form to receive 25% off your first key machine purchase. Or if you prefer to call, just mention Cardiose Revector, receive your discount. Keeper systems.com, K-E-Y-P-E-R systems.com.

在我们开始节目之前，全国各地的汽车经销商遭受盗窃困扰，丢失汽车钥匙带来不必要的费用，并且寻找钥匙可能导致销售过程中的瓶颈。Keeper系统为经销商提供了解决方案。Keeper MX是汽车行业中排名第一的钥匙控制解决方案，每天处理数百万笔交易。它采用16号钢柜，内置摄像头和puk-lok以提供额外的安全性，还具有许多其他功能，使经销商可以了解谁何时以及为什么拿走了钥匙。Keeper系统在汽车行业已经存在了40多年，服务于超过12,000家经销商，在全球十大汽车集团中有6家提供独家钥匙控制服务。他们拥有适合特许经销商、独立经销商甚至最小二手车经营场地需求的广泛产品。新客户现在可以利用我与Keeper系统的合作关系，获得独家折扣。您只需访问Keepersystems.com，点击汽车经销商指南链接，填写表格即可享受首次购买钥匙机的75%折扣。或者，如果您更喜欢来电，只需提及Cardiose Revector，即可享受折扣。网址为Keeper systems.com，拼写为K-E-Y-P-E-R systems.com。

Alright folks, we got Jonathan Smoke on the pod from Cox Automotive, or as they call him in the streets, DJ Smokey Smoke. That's good to see you again, CDG. You too. Thanks for coming on. The most creative economists I've ever met, so pumped for this one. People are probably wondering, what's DJ Smokey Smoke? You should have listened to the first episode where we give some context on your DJing career. It's a little bar for the world of economists to be entertaining and creative, but I try to keep up.

大家好，我们在节目中邀请到了来自Cox Automotive公司的Jonathan Smoke，或者在街头称他为DJ Smokey Smoke。很高兴再次见到你，CDG。你也一样。谢谢你的参与。他是我见过的最有创造力的经济学家，对此我非常激动。人们可能想知道，什么是DJ Smokey Smoke？你应该听第一集的节目，在那里我们解释了你的DJ生涯的背景。在经济学界保持富有趣味和创意有点困难，但我还是在努力跟上。

Well, look, we have a lot to cover. Having done deep economy, just industry segment since our podcast, really. I think to lay the land for a second, and I'll let you introduce yourself to all of our new listeners. It feels like it's been a lifetime since our last episode of What's Changed in the industry. In reality, it hasn't been that long, it's been a couple of months. But since then, just to give a preview, we've seen new car sales continue to rise year over year. We've seen use car prices decline and then increase a little bit. Now we're seeing these potential strikes in Detroit with the United Auto Workers, specifically strikes that could potentially impact production for Stellantis, Ford, GM. We're seeing Elon Musk and Tesla cut prices on their EVs, new cars, like 20%. Just crazy price cuts overnight, and this was super recent a couple of days ago or so a week ago. We still have yet to feel the impact there, but there's so much going on. It's going to be a very juicy episode.

听着，我们有很多内容要讲。在我们的播客里，我们只谈了深入的经济和行业细分。我想先来个简要介绍，然后我会让你向我们的新听众介绍一下自己。自上一集《行业有何变化》以来，感觉过去了很久，但实际上并没有那么长，只有几个月。但在此期间，让我们先预览一下：新车销量持续年增；二手车价格先下降，然后又稍稍上涨；现在底特律的美国汽车工人联合会可能会举行罢工，有可能影响斯泰彻斯、福特、通用汽车的生产；埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉将他们的电动汽车新车降价20%，简直是一夜之间搞出这么疯狂的价格削减，而且这发生在几天前或者一周前。我们还没有真正感受到这个影响，但事情太多了。这将是一集非常精彩的节目。

Before we get into that, can you give our new listeners, can you give us your background and exactly what you do?

在我们深入讨论之前，你可以向我们的新听众介绍一下你的背景和你具体从事的工作吗？

Sure. I'm the chief economist for Cox Automotive. For folks not familiar with Cox Automotive, we are the largest services company for the auto space. We basically have some familiar brand names to consumers like AutoTrader and Kelly Blue Book, where consumers go to shop and learn about vehicle values and the like. We have the top one, two or three software platforms that dealers use to manage all aspects of their business from CRM to inventory management to the back end, DMSs. So, our bread and butter software businesses are very much focused on supporting dealers. As a result, I work with dealers, day in and day out.

当然。我是Cox Automotive公司的首席经济学家。对于不熟悉Cox Automotive的人来说，我们是汽车行业的最大服务公司。我们基本上拥有一些为消费者所熟知的品牌，比如AutoTrader和Kelly Blue Book，消费者可以在这些平台上购物和了解车辆价值等信息。我们拥有一、二或三个顶级软件平台，供经销商使用以管理他们业务的各个方面，包括客户关系管理、库存管理以及后台的DMS系统。因此，我们的主要业务是支持经销商的软件业务。因此，我每天都与经销商紧密合作。

Then most people know me because of the Manheim Index. We own Manheim AutoActions, the world's largest wholesale marketplaces. Folks that listen to the podcasts, you mentioned going to Manheim PA on a regular basis and want a trip that is in terms of where it's located and what that's like. I've been in a role as a chief economist in the housing industry and now in the automotive industry and I came to Cox six and a half years ago, leaving behind my background in housing to get into automotive as a new learning opportunity for me, but really to leverage the vast amount of information that we have at our disposal to really get to understand and know this business.

大多数人之所以认识我，是因为曼海姆指数。我们拥有曼海姆汽车行动，这是世界上最大的批发市场。听过播客的人可能会提到经常去曼海姆佩恩斯顿，想知道那个地方的情况如何。我曾在房地产行业担任首席经济学家的职位，现在则在汽车行业里担任同样的职位。六年半前我来到了考克斯，放弃了我的房地产背景，以获取新的学习机会并利用我们掌握的大量信息，真正理解和了解这个行业。

So, bottom line, what I do day in and day out is to try to make sense of what's happening in the world and specifically relating that to trends we're seeing in the auto market because I'm trying to help people make good decisions and that includes manufacturers, dealers and lenders and consumers alike. So, I'm a big fan of the podcasts and I too am learning so I want to continue to contribute to this world.

总的来说，我的日常工作就是试图理解世界上正在发生的事情，并将其与汽车市场中的趋势联系起来，因为我想帮助人们做出正确的决策，这包括制造商、经销商、贷款机构和消费者。所以，我非常喜欢播客，我也在学习，所以我希望继续为这个世界做出贡献。

I love it. Did you see my long form post? Is that what you're referring to about the Manheim trip?

我喜欢它。你看到我的长篇帖子了吗？你是在指那次曼海姆之行吗？

Yes. Yes. Yeah, good. I'm glad that because it's funny. I was thinking to tee up the Hollands Head podcast, largest wholesaler in the world. And I was thinking about, you know what, what's better than to just illustrate what that experience was like starting out? Yeah. Yeah. I was kind of like off the whim. It was funny. I ended up striking in court with lots of people. So that was awesome.

是的。是的。是的，不错。我很高兴，因为它很有趣。我在考虑推出《Hollands Head》的播客，这是世界上最大的批发商。而我在想，有什么比仅仅描绘起步的经历更好呢？是的，是的。我有点冲动，但结果很有趣。我最后在法庭上与很多人发生了冲突，所以那真是太棒了。

All right. So give us like the 4,000 foot overview of like what is going on right now in the car industry in general.

好的。给我们一个大致了解，概括一下当前整个汽车行业的情况。

Yeah. Well, there's always something going on. And you know, we last talked just about three months ago and I totally agree with you that several things are changing or have changed in that time. Fundamentally, if I take a step back, I would say that we're increasingly seeing the auto market move towards normalization and balance. You know, we've basically been in a world where the decline in new vehicle production from every factory in the world being shut down back in 2020 and then all of the crazy supply chain issues that happened as the manufacturers tried to get back up online meant that we have been severely under supplied in first the new vehicle market. But now that's cascading into the used vehicle market because the absence of new vehicle sales for three years in a row constrains substantially what can happen in wholesale and in the used retail market. So we've had a lot of abnormal trends. We've had demand exceeding supplies. So that caused tremendous price inflation first on the used vehicle side and then that cascaded into new and this year is starting to see pricing come down again.

是的。嗯，总是有一些事情在发生。你知道，我们上次交谈大概是三个月前，我完全同意你的观点，这段时间发生了一些变化或已经改变了一些事情。从根本上讲，如果我退后一步，我会说我们越来越看到汽车市场朝着正常化和平衡发展。你知道，我们基本上处在一个新车生产持续下降的世界，从2020年开始所有工厂都关停，然后制造商试图重新上线时发生了疯狂的供应链问题，这意味着我们在新车市场上供应严重不足。但现在这种情况已经蔓延到二手车市场，因为连续三年的新车销售缺失大大限制了批发和二手零售市场的发展。所以我们遇到了许多异常趋势。需求超过供应，这首先导致二手车价格大幅上涨，然后向新车市场波及，而今年开始有迹象表明价格正在下降。

Of course, you're dealing with the economy and the issues facing the economy with inflation and then the medicine being doled out by the Federal Reserve that includes monetary tightening and most importantly substantial increases in interest rates. So you combine price increases with the higher interest rates and tighter credit. We have a real affordability challenge in both the new and the used market that limits demand and it's helped produce some of the normalization we're seeing because there are I would argue at least 50% of the market is almost completely priced out of being able to buy the way that they traditionally would.

当然，你正在处理经济以及面临通胀问题和由联邦储备系统发布的包含货币收紧和最重要的利率大幅增加的药方。因此，你将价格上涨与更高的利率和紧缩的信贷相结合。我们在新车和二手车市场都面临着一个真正的可支付性挑战，这限制了需求，并帮助我们看到了一些正常化，因为至少有50%的市场几乎完全无法购买他们传统的方式。

So what do you mean by that 50% of the market is priced out of the car industry?

那么，你说的市场50%的人无力购买汽车是什么意思呢？

Yeah. I mean, at the end of the day, if you think about retail, the retail vehicle market, it is a financing market. People the most important number is the monthly payment. 100%. And when you look at what the households in the US, the distribution of their incomes, about half can only afford about a $400 payment. And it is really difficult to produce a $400 payment in either the new or the used market today because of the combination of vehicle prices and interest rates. So it ends up being a market that's largely, you get a tale of two different stories left and right.

是的。我的意思是，不管怎样，如果你考虑零售，即零售汽车市场，它实际上是一个融资市场。对人们来说，最重要的数字就是每月还款。百分之百。而且当你看一下美国家庭的收入分配情况时，大约有一半人只能承担大约400美元的还款。由于车辆价格和利率的结合，今天在新车市场或二手车市场上，要找到每月400美元的还款非常困难。因此，结果就是一个市场，在左右两边有着截然不同的故事。

I would argue consumers are living in two very different worlds where high income consumers that own homes and lock down very low interest rate mortgages. are enjoying almost the best of times because they've got low debts that they're paying. And at the end of the month, they're seeing their stocks go up in most months and home values go up and it's a really positive story.

我认为消费者生活在两个非常不同的世界中。高收入的消费者拥有自己的住房，并签下了利率非常低的抵押贷款，在经济上度过了最好的时光。他们拥有较低的债务，并且每个月的末尾都能看到他们的股票价值增长和房屋价值上涨，这是一个非常积极的故事。

The other end of the income spectrum, you basically see consumers who spend more than half of their budgets on three things, food, energy and shelter and those things. That's where we've had the most inflation. And so they've been experiencing tremendous inflation and just trying to make ends meet. But those consumers tend to be consumers that traditionally drive the used car market and are a substantial portion of what we call subprime in the credit space. And so they're seeing interest rates that are north of 22% these days. And it's really hard to get a $400 payment on any vehicle that you can actually get financed.

收入谱的另一端，基本上你会看到消费者将自己一半以上的预算花费在三个方面，食品、能源和住房等。这就是我们遇到最高通胀的地方。所以他们正在经历巨大的通胀，只是努力维持收支平衡。但是这些消费者往往是传统上推动二手车市场发展的消费者，也是我们所谓的次级信贷市场的重要部分。所以他们现在面临的利率超过22%。实际上很难以任何能够获得融资的车辆负担一个每月400美元的付款。

So with all that said right now, let's just start with used for a second. Yeah, I saw, I always saw this chart, I forget to put it out. It pretty much showed this like a hypothetical underproduction of vehicles since 2020. Right. It was like, you know, we've underproduced 8.5 million vehicles since 2020 and all it's doing is going by what we should have sold in normal times versus what we actually sold. And it's also not perfect because people are holding their cars longer and whatnot.

所以说现在，我们暂且从二手车讲起。是的，我看过这个图表，可惜没有拿出来。它大致展示了从2020年以来假设的汽车产量不足情况。是的，就是说我们自2020年以来少生产了850万辆汽车，这是根据我们在正常情况下应该销售的数量与实际销售数量的差别。但这个数据也不完全准确，因为人们现在使用汽车的时间更长等原因。

But when you look at something like that and given the fact that, you know, inventory use cars are still at historical lows or at least for a certain period of time, which I'm sure you could provide more data than I can, how are used car prices rising again as of like past month? Like what's going on right now, you know, with interest rates at everything and people being priced out, how are prices going up again, at least on the use side?

但是当你看到像这样的事情，并考虑到，你知道，库存使用的汽车仍然处于历史低点，或者至少是在一段特定的时间内，我相信你可以提供比我更多的数据，为什么过去一个月以来二手车价格又再次上涨？就像现在发生了什么，你知道，利率已经全面上涨，人们的购买力受到影响，但二手车的价格为什么又上涨了，至少从使用方面来看是怎么回事？

Well, we're fundamentally very constrained. Also to the point of the people who have focused on the underproduction that we've had, think about it this way. Prior to the pandemic, we basically had a car park that was growing by about 5 million units per year. We were adding 4 to 5 million units. And that's the difference between the new vehicle production and sales that happened in the new market minus the vehicles we lose, what we refer to as scrappage in the industries. So the net effect was yes, we were growing the car park by 4 or 5 million.

嗯，我们在根本上受到了很大的限制。对于那些关注我们的低产能的人来说，可以这样考虑。在疫情之前，我们的汽车停车场每年增长大约500万辆。我们每年增加了4至5百万辆汽车。这就是指新车生产和销售市场中增加的数量与我们失去的车辆数量之差，我们所说的废弃车辆。因此，净效应是，我们每年将汽车停车场增加了4至5百万辆。

So and give me like rough numbers, how many cars are operated in the US nowadays? Like about 280 million. Okay, 280 million. And if we were selling the white like 18 million new per year, 17 million. Yeah, we were selling north of 17 million for almost a full decade leading out to the pandemic. Okay. Which means that and then you're saying we're scrapping like 12 million or so we're kind of going out of operation. Yes.

给我大概的数字，现在美国有多少汽车在运营？大约280亿辆。好的，280亿辆。如果我们每年卖出1800万辆新车，1700万辆。是的，在疫情爆发前的整整十年里，我们销售量都超过1700万辆。好的。这意味着你说我们报废了大约1200万辆或者说将要停止运营的车辆。是的。

So we've had several years through the pandemic, actually the first two years of the pandemic, car park shrink, because we actually lost more vehicles than we were bringing into the market as new. We've basically in three and a half years, we've added about a million vehicles when normally we would have added by this point about 15 million. So everything is just like out of equilibrium at that point. And then on throw on top of that, we've actually had a shift in where people live. And their preferences for transportation, plus we had two years of what we can characterize as the free money years, both in terms of stimulus and interest rates being rock bottom. So you actually had stronger demand than normal for the last four years.

所以我们已经经历了数年的疫情，实际上是疫情的前两年，停车场的规模缩小了，因为我们实际上失去了比我们引进市场的新车辆还要多的车辆。在三年半的时间里，我们实际上只增加了大约100万辆车，而按照通常情况，到这个时候我们本应该增加约1500万辆车。所以现在一切都处于不平衡状态。而且除此之外，人们居住的地方和交通方式的偏好发生了转变，再加上过去两年我们可以称之为自由资金年，既有刺激措施，又有利率降至最低点。所以过去四年的需求实际上比正常情况下更强劲。

Tell me more about you said preferences and transportation. Like what changed? What do people want now that they didn't, you know, three, four, five years ago?

告诉我更多关于你提到的偏好和交通方式。比如，有什么变化？现在的人们想要什么，而在三年、四年、五年前他们并不想要的呢？

Well, first obviously when COVID was a major concern, there was an enormous shift of people no longer wanting to share transportation. So public transportation fell dramatically. Even ride hailing fell dramatically. You really had a preference for I want to be in my own vehicle. I want want to be in my own bubble.

当COVID成为主要关注的问题时，显然人们不再愿意共享交通工具，这导致了公共交通的大幅下降，乘车服务的使用量也急剧下降。人们现在更倾向于使用自己的车辆，想要呆在自己的小圈子里。

But then on top of that, when people started primarily working from home and driving more of what is still today, a very much a hybrid work situation, people were starting to migrate and look to own houses in places that were more affordable or more enjoyable. So you've seen a mass migration. from high population dense areas like New York City, Chicago, San Francisco to secondary markets and more rural locations that are absolutely more exhibit, private transportation specific. The urbanization. Yeah.

但是除此之外，当人们主要开始在家工作并更多地驾驶（尽管仍然是混合工作情况）时，人们开始迁移到并寻找价格更实惠或更宜居的地方购买房屋。所以你会看到一种大规模的迁徙，从像纽约市、芝加哥、旧金山这样的高人口密集地区，转向次级市场和更农村的地方，这些地方绝对更适合展示私人交通。城市化。是的。

And so the vehicle has become even more important to households. And I would argue there are use cases which used to be a lot simpler. Just mileage being put on cars pre pandemic was driven by your daily weekly commute. Today, the commute is more complicated. And for some folks, isn't even an issue. And instead, you've got a model where I don't have a daily driver anymore. I have a vehicle that I need to drive to work a couple of times a week. But then I also need to hold my family around or I need to be able to tow up a boat on the weekend every couple of weeks or whatever the situation. I would argue that use cases for consumers have gotten more complicated too from a vehicle standpoint.

因此，对家庭来说，车辆变得更加重要了。我认为，曾经非常简单的使用情景现在变得更为复杂。以前车子上的里程都是由你每天、每周的通勤行程驱动的。如今，通勤变得更加复杂。对于一些人来说，通勤甚至不是一个问题。相反，现在你拥有了一种模式，我不再需要每天开车了，我只需要每周开几次去上班。但同时，我还需要用车接送我的家人，或者每隔几个星期就需要拖带一艘船出去娱乐，或者其他各种情况。我认为，从车辆的角度来看，消费者的使用情景也变得更加复杂了。

So we had a tremendous amount of people back in 2020 and 21 when they were getting stimulus money, when interest rates were zero or near zero and the lowest that we've ever seen basically changing vehicles, both new and used. Because retail sales ever were in 2021 and mostly driven by the volumes we had in the used vehicle market. But then last year that started to come to a screeching halt because one pricing started to go up dramatically in both 2020 and 2021. But then you had the Fed raising interest rates and that really started to change the story.

在2020年和2021年，当人们获得刺激资金、利率接近零并且是历史最低水平时，我们有大量的人开始更换车辆，无论是全新的还是二手的。因为零售销售在2021年达到了前所未有的高点，主要是由二手车市场的交易量推动的。但是去年开始，情况急转而下，因为在2020年和2021年，物价开始急剧上涨。而当Fed开始加息时，这个故事真的开始发生改变。

So how have interest rates most impacted the industry would you say? Like someone asked me today, someone was like, hey, so interest rates rising, like so what are people's monthly payments changing? I said, well, no, I said it doesn't affect it that way, but it's affecting in other ways, right? So suddenly you have to pay more for that house. And so I'm curious from your take, what is the impact of these interest rates, right? And will it be like short-lived, long-lived, like can you walk us through that a little bit?

那么，你会说利率对该行业产生了怎样的最大影响呢？就像今天有人问我，有人说，嘿，利率上升，那么人们的月付款会有什么变化呢？我说，嗯，并不会这样影响，但会以其他方式产生影响，对吗？所以突然间你不得不为那个房子支付更多的费用。因此，我很好奇你的看法，这些利率有什么影响呢？它会是短期的，还是长期的？能否给我们解释一下？

Sure. And that's a great point. It does not in the auto market, much like the US housing market, which by the way is relatively unique in the world. People are not subject to variable rates on the vast majority of loans that they have. So rising interest rates basically only impact new buyers. They don't impact existing buyers. However, in the vehicle market, most people who are buying a vehicle or selling a vehicle, so you have a potential lock-in effect that what we may see is a much more muted amount of demand out there because people net net will look at their situation and say, I can't really improve my vehicle circumstance because my payment is going to go up so much. You can't really figure out the calculus that will drive it. So it's more a limiter on what we can sell now versus what we could sell before. And where we see that most evident is again with consumers who facing the biggest affordability challenges, which are principally lower credit quality consumers. And we've effectively seen subprime almost disappear from the new vehicle market. And in the used market, we've lost about 5% of the market that used to exist. So you literally have... Does that matter? Is that 5%? That's like a differente? Or is that like a 5% that has no other options? How important is that 5%?

当然。这是个很重要的观点。与美国住房市场相似，汽车市场也不太一样，这在世界范围内相对特殊。大部分人的贷款不受变动利率的影响，因此上升的利率基本上只会影响新买家，而不会影响现有买家。然而，在汽车市场上，大多数购买或出售车辆的人都面临一个潜在的锁定效应，即人们会更加谨慎地考虑自己的情况，并说：“我无法改善我的车辆状况，因为我的付款会增加很多。”你无法确切计算出这会导致怎样的结果。因此，它更多地限制了我们现在能够销售的数量，而不是之前能够销售的数量。我们最明显地看到这一点的是那些面临最大负担的消费者，主要是信用质量较低的消费者。事实上，我们已经看到次级贷款几乎从新车市场消失。而在二手车市场，我们损失了大约5%的市场份额。所以实际情况是...这有什么关系吗？这5%的份额重要吗？或者这5%是因没有其他选择吗？这5%有多重要？

Well, I would say it's important. It's materially important. And it's especially a good reason why when you look at our surveys of dealers and our dealer sentiment, which we're rolling out the third quarter of this month, it's why persistently franchise dealers have been more positive about the whole economy and the auto market and specifically the used vehicle market than we see from independents. And those who service more of the credit challenge consumer have seen the biggest struggles. And some of its inventory related to, I'm not dismissing that there's also an issue with what vehicles are available and at what price, but credit plays an enormous role in that. Give us an update on the inventory situation, New Car Side for a second. People ask me, they're like, hey, why can't I still get a Toyota? Why can't I get a Honda? I can get a Chrysler Pacific off. So give us a why are some manufacturers still dealing with supply issues three and a half years like, I mean, come on, like, does something doesn't make sense? Walk us through that.

嗯，我会说这是重要的。它在实质上是重要的。这也是为什么当我们观察经销商和他们的情绪调查时，我们看到连锁经销商对整个经济、汽车市场和二手车市场都比独立经销商更持乐观态度的一个很好的原因。那些为信用挑战消费者提供服务的经销商遇到了更大的困难。虽然我不会完全忽视可用车辆和价格的问题，但信用在其中起着巨大的作用。请就新车库存情况向我们进行更新。有人问我，他们说：“嘿，为什么我还是买不到丰田?为什么我买不到本田？我可以买到克莱斯勒太平洋。”那么请告诉我们，为什么有些制造商在三年半前仍然面临供应问题，这看上去没有道理。请详细解释一下。

Well, it hasn't been an even tide. And so largely what we were seeing last year in particular was that European brands and Asian brands were far more likely to still have lingering supply chain issues.

嗯，形势并不平稳。去年我们尤其看到，欧洲品牌和亚洲品牌更有可能仍然存在供应链问题。

And in particular, the brands that we saw that were furthest behind were indeed the Japanese brands with Toyota being the most high profile one that seemed to be behind everyone else in seeing the recovery. And it was a litany of bad luck. Basically, there was an earthquake early in 2022 that set Toyota back specifically. It also impacted one of their major sources of semiconductors. So while others were solving their computer chip problems, Toyota was actually having newer ones last year.

特别是我们观察到，最滞后的品牌确实是那些日本品牌，其中丰田是最引人注目的一家，似乎在复苏方面落后于其他品牌。这主要是因为一系列不幸的事情。基本上，2022年初发生了一次地震，严重影响了丰田。同时，这次地震还影响了他们的主要半导体供应商。所以，当其他公司解决了电脑芯片问题时，丰田却在去年遇到了新的问题。

The lingering issues in Europe were mostly related to disruptions from the war in Ukraine, which you don't hear about vehicles being assembled in Ukraine. We don't have a single vehicle sold in the US that is impacted directly by Russia and Ukraine. But Ukraine played a pretty important role, kind of like Mexico does for some of our vehicle production where significant portions of the vehicle, like wire harnessing, was done there. And obviously that was disrupted, but it was also the disruption of fuel and other kind of costs in Europe that caused some of those supply chain issues.

欧洲持续存在的问题主要与乌克兰战争造成的干扰有关，你可能没有听说过车辆在乌克兰组装的情况。我们在美国销售的任何一辆车都没有直接受到俄罗斯和乌克兰的影响。但是乌克兰在其中扮演了一个相当重要的角色，就像墨西哥对我们某些车辆生产的作用一样，其中的很大一部分车辆组件，例如线束，是在乌克兰制造的。显然，这个过程受到了干扰，同时欧洲的燃料和其他成本的干扰也导致了一些供应链问题的出现。

But flash forward and now even Toyota is very close. In fact, I think they set a world record for themselves in July for the amount of vehicles that they produced across all their factories globally. So I think we are finally at the end of the more significant supply chain issues. Just in time for a strike where actually multiple strikes to start unfolding.

然而，现在甚至连丰田也非常接近这一情况。事实上，我认为他们在7月创下了一个世界记录，他们的全球工厂生产的车辆数量。所以我认为我们终于到了较为重要的供应链问题的尽头。正好在这时，多次罢工将开始展开。

Well, I want to jump into that. But before we get into that, one more quick question on Toyota. So do you think from here, do you think we're going to see again, all else being equal, right? There can always be some black swan event. But do you think all else being equal? Are we going to start seeing prices start to improve on Toyota, these Asian brands?

好的，我想要对此进行讨论。但在进一步探讨之前，先问一个关于丰田的简短问题。那么从现在开始，您认为所有条件都不变的情况下，我们是否会看到丰田和其他亚洲品牌的价格开始改善呢？当然，除非出现一些突发事件。

Yeah, I think we're moving towards normalization. And normalization will mean more inventory. That higher inventory is going to be more incentives. That is going to mean a return to discounting rather than paying above MSRP. We've already seen that for the brands that are more well supplied. But we're still, I think the average gap between what a consumer is paying to the sticker price or the MSRP is less than 1% so far this year when we were consistently experiencing 6% to 8% discounts pre-pandemic.

是的，我认为我们正在向正常化的方向迈进。而正常化将意味着更多的库存。更多的库存意味着更多的激励措施。这将意味着回归折扣，而不是支付高于建议零售价。我们已经看到这对于供应充足的品牌来说是如此。但是，我认为今年迄今为止，消费者所支付的价款与标价或建议零售价之间的平均差距不到1%，而在疫情前我们一直经历的是6%至8%的折扣。

Oh, got it. So we will be seeing steps towards that direction. Do we get all the way back to what it was before? That's a matter of debate because some would argue that because we can sell more vehicles on order and the approach that many manufacturers are going to try to take to do more regional distribution that we may net net never get back to quite the same number of vehicles sitting on dealer lots. If I had, you know, as an economist, I don't feel strongly around the arguments of why can that happen simply because manufacturers will quote unquote be disciplined. This is an industry that has high fixed costs with different global and kind of company specific strategies. It only takes one player to push the entire industry in the wrong direction and exhibit A is not so much one player. But if you look how quickly inventories have grown this year and how fast incentives have followed. In incentives in August, we just got the numbers this morning. Incentives were up over 100% year over year. So it isn't even though inventory levels are still relatively constrained as you were pointing out, we're already seeing that manufacturers are really working hard to make the most out of the situation. But those inventory levels are where there is. Isn't it mostly domestic brands like GM for Stellantis?

哦，明白了。所以我们将会朝着那个方向迈进。我们会完全回到以前的状态吗？这是一个有争议的问题，因为有人会争论，由于我们可以按订单销售更多的车辆，并且许多制造商将试图采取更多的区域分销方法，所以我们可能永远无法回到经销商那里存放的同样数量的车辆。作为一名经济学家，我对为什么可能发生这种情况的争论并不坚定，仅仅因为制造商将会“约束”自己。这是一个具有高固定成本和不同的全球和公司特定战略的行业。只需要一个参与者将整个行业引向错误方向，而并非仅仅是一个参与者。但如果你看看今年库存增长的速度以及奖励措施的迅速跟进，你就会明白。奖励措施在八月份已经公布，与去年同期相比增长了100%以上。所以尽管库存水平仍相对有限，正如你所指出的，我们已经看到制造商们正在努力充分利用这种情况。但这些库存水平大多是国内品牌，比如通用汽车和斯泰兰蒂斯。

Yeah. So when you look at it, it's more than it's more the domestic brands that are more likely to be normally supplied or close to being in some cases over supplied. But there's also segment level differences. Like I would say one of the things that's become absolutely clear since our podcast is that we've hit the first speed bump in electric vehicle adoption on the new vehicle side. So that's the one piece. What do you mean by that? That supply is building up rapidly of electric vehicles relative to the rest of the market. Tell us more there. Like what are you actually seeing like they supply and also I'm curious if you're seeing that for everyone excluding Tesla?

是的。所以当你看的时候，更有可能是国内品牌通常会有正常的供应或者在某些情况下过剩。但是也存在不同的细分市场差异。比如我会说自从我们的播客播出以来，有一件事情变得非常清楚，即在新车领域，电动车的采用率出现了第一个速度减缓。所以这是其中一部分。你指的是什么？相对于市场其他部分，电动车的供应正在迅速增加。请告诉我们更多细节，比如供应情况，我还想知道你是否看到这种情况对特斯拉以外的品牌也是一样的。

Yes. And in fact, most of the data we put out and we put out regular information in terms of I do a biweekly video and then we do some detailed inventory reports using our V-auto platform and V-auto is the top industry source of inventory management for dealers. So a lot of folks worldwide swear by Dale Pollack and his philosophies with velocity and inventory pricing and management. So we basically have the tools that let us track it.

是的。实际上，我们发布的大部分数据都是定期发布的，我会每两周发布一次视频，并使用我们的V-auto平台生成一些详细的库存报告。对于经销商来说，V-auto是库存管理的顶级行业来源。因此，全球许多人都信赖Dale Pollack及其在速度和库存定价管理方面的理念。所以我们基本上有可以让我们跟踪库存的工具。

We do not have Tesla in our numbers. So what we're seeing in the data. Because Tesla is not a dealer customer first and foremost. So we don't have Tesla actively participating in that platform to give us visibility into a hundred percent of their inventory and how they are pricing that inventory. And the second is they're much more difficult to relative compared to traditional dealers in terms of their approach to advertising specifically what they have available to sell.

我们的数据中没有特斯拉。因为特斯拉首先并不是经销商的客户。因此，我们无法从他们的平台中获取他们全部库存和价格信息的完全可见性。其次，与传统经销商相比，特斯拉在广告和销售可用性方面更加困难，因此更难以比较。

Essentially what I would describe is what's behind our numbers is if a VIN is being actively advertised as available then it's in our inventory numbers. So there's sort of no question. You can drill down to the make model and specific vehicle to know where it is and at what price and ultimately who's selling it. So our numbers track the industry numbers extremely closely and I look at it actually every single day but we share results sort of weekly.

基本上，我要描述的是我们的数字背后的含义。如果一个VIN（车辆识别号码）正在积极地被广告宣传为可用，那么它就会被记录在我们的库存数字中。所以问题基本上是没有的。你可以进一步追踪到品牌、型号和具体的车辆，了解它的位置、价格和最终的销售者是谁。因此，我们的数字与整个行业的数字非常接近，实际上我每天都会查看它，但我们通常是每周分享一次结果。

And so back to the theme that we were describing if you look in aggregate for the new vehicle market this year, day supply has gone sideways to slightly down and day supply is simply the total inventory level divided by the active current sales base. And we use a simple rolling 30 day sales base. The industry does when manufacturers report their numbers they do a more I'll say sophisticated calculation where they take into account the number of selling days in the month and it basically reduces the day supply a little bit more aggressively than what our numbers do.

因此，回到我们描述的主题上来，如果你在今年的整体新车市场上观察，库存天数在持平或稍微下降，而库存天数就是总库存水平除以活跃现行销售基数。我们使用一个简单的滚动30天销售基数。当制造商报告他们的数据时，他们会进行更为复杂的计算，考虑到月份中的销售天数，这会比我们的数据更积极地降低库存天数。

But nonetheless what we were seeing in the trend was day supply has been coming down all year long or at worst gone sideways which means that despite inventories growing and inventories have been up consistently about 80% year over year so far this year. Is that inventory or total new car inventories? Total new car inventories what are sitting on dealer lots what are actively being marketed to. 2. 80% year over year and what are the actual numbers?

但尽管如此，我们从趋势中看到的是每日供应量整年都持续下降，或者最坏的情况是保持稳定，这意味着尽管库存不断增长，今年以来库存一直保持约80%的同比增长。这是指汽车总库存还是全新汽车总库存？是指我们所看到的汽车经销商库存，也就是正在积极营销的汽车。2. 80%的同比增长率对应的实际数字是多少？

Roughly we were right around 2 million total new vehicle units sitting on dealer lots. Okay 2 million that's up 80% year over year. So going back to your point on EV specifically we were seeing in the market this year where day supply was coming down while inventories are rising which that would signal strong demand right. That is correct and that's a good signal that if day supply is holding steady while you're increasing inventories it means the market's absorbing what you're delivering and you're not having a pile up of supply that would make you worry about future potential or future vehicle values.

大致上，我们在经销商库存中有大约200万辆全新汽车。好的，200万辆，同比增长80%。所以回到你特别提到的电动汽车，我们今年市场上看到的情况是库存增加，但供应日数在下降，这表明需求强劲。没错，这是一个好的信号，如果供应日数保持稳定，而库存增加，意味着市场正在吸收你所提供的车辆，未来潜力或车辆价值的问题不需要担心。

Well the one exception to that is battery electric vehicles. Their inventory has increased almost 400% year over year even faster than the sales pace which year to date is up about 80% which means that the day supply number has been accelerating in its increase and we're currently at a day's supply for EVs above 100 days. So what happens next more than twice that we see for the new vehicle more? That's very high I mean that's twice the average.

嗯，唯一的例外是电池电动汽车。它们的库存量已经年增长近400%，甚至比销售速度更快，到目前为止，销量已经增长了约80%，这意味着汽车库存天数正在加速增长，目前电动汽车的库存供应已经超过了100天。那么接下来会发生什么，新车的库存供应将超过两倍吗？这个数字非常高，我是说这是平均值的两倍。

So what happens next is what are all the things you normally see when something is over supplied. This counting which you already mentioned I mean Tesla is the 800 pound gorilla in that space and boy are they exerting their muscle and by the way from my view it's working. If there's any clear victor so far this year it's Tesla because they're maintaining their share yes they're making less money per unit that they're selling but they are not struggling the way that we are seeing some traditional brands and I think some of that boils down to some of the adoption issues that we're running into because if you think about where we are we basically have been selling battery electric vehicles to the choir to use the religious analogy we've been selling to the people who absolutely have sought them out and wanted to be the early adopters for multiple reasons.

接下来发生的事情就是当某物供应过剩时通常会出现的一切。这种计算，你已经提到了，我的意思是特斯拉在这个领域是一头重达800磅的大猩猩，他们正在展现自己的实力，顺便说一句，从我的角度来看，这是有效的。如果今年至今有任何明显的胜利者，那就是特斯拉，因为他们保持着自己的市场份额，是的，他们每台销售的车赚的钱少了，但他们并没有像一些传统品牌那样遇到困境，我认为其中一部分归结于我们遇到的一些采用问题，因为如果你想想我们所处的位置，基本上我们一直在向唱诗班出售电池电动车，用宗教的比喻来说，我们一直在向那些绝对要寻找它们并希望成为早期采用者的人们销售，出于多种原因。

Well now we're trending towards a policy that suggests at some point in the future the average American has to buy has to want and buy a battery electric vehicle and there is a big difference between the choir and the average American and some brands like Tesla how Tesla's brand or other new entrants like Rivian line up with consumers they're in great position because consumers align with those brands and think of battery electric

恩，现在我们正在趋向一项政策，即未来某个时候普通美国人需要并且想要购买一辆电池电动车，但是合唱团和普通美国人之间存在着很大的区别，一些品牌如特斯拉以及其他新进入市场的品牌如Rivian在与消费者接触时处于有利地位，因为消费者与这些品牌相契合并且对电池电动车有着良好的认可。

some other brands like traditional brands including high profile brands with battery electric vehicles like Chevrolet and Ford don't have quite the same line up with those consumers their consumers are actually not eager to get battery electric. vehicles and you also look at where those traditionally have sold they're in the heartland they are everywhere they are not concentrated in California or in the extreme urban the coastal yeah the coastal cities yeah yeah so there's we're just at an interest

一些其他品牌，如雪佛兰和福特等传统品牌的电动汽车并不受消费者追捧，与那些消费者相比，它们的车型并不太吸引人。而且如果你看一下这些品牌传统销售的地方，它们遍布在美国的内陆地区，而不是集中在加利福尼亚或者极度城市化的沿海城市。所以我们只是对这个领域感兴趣

I'm not and by the way I'm not conveying that I think you know battery electrics don't have a future and won't continue to grow I think there's just this is the first of many speed bumps that that we're hitting as an as an industry I actually think the number one issue to consumers is pricing and we're already seeing what happens when you're over supplied prices come down and that's going to cause more consumers to consider EVs and some of the other issues

我并不是表达我认为你知道纯电动汽车没有未来并且无法持续增长的意思，我只是觉得我们作为一个行业正在遇到的这个是第一个而已。实际上，我认为对消费者来说最重要的问题是价格，我们已经看到供应过剩时价格会下降，这将导致更多的消费者考虑购买纯电动汽车以及解决其他问题。

like charging networks those are chicken and egg issues we solve those issues when we have more battery electrics that are in the market and for example companies that can see a profitable path to making all the investments they need to do with chargers so some of those other things that better everything you're saying makes sense right like we're going to see more discounts on with the EV specifically who do you think are going to be the winners and losers here right

像充电网络这样的问题，有点像"鸡和蛋"问题，我们解决这些问题的前提是市场上有更多的电动汽车，并且有一些公司能够看到通过充电器进行投资回报的可行路径。一些其他的方面，比如你所说的一切都有意义，就像我们将会看到特定的电动汽车优惠一样。你认为在这方面的赢家和输家会是谁呢？

like it's Tesla the winner and everyone else the loser or what does it look like well in in the short term I definitely think from a branding perspective that Tesla's winning this this inning or this quarter or whatever sports analogy you want to put at it and it's really hard you know if you look at the longer term forecast we've got we've got pipeline supplied directed forecast out to 2040 and at no point does Tesla not have the top market share in that forecast for EVs so yeah of course their market share erodes over time and at in by the year 2040 some other brands like Toyota will be much closer to them in in terms of their share of the market but Tesla is is a strong incumbent that I would not bet against and I think this year again is living proof that that they are doing well

就好像特斯拉是赢家，而其他所有人都是输家，或者你认为这样看起来怎么样呢？短期来看，从品牌的角度来看，我绝对认为特斯拉在这场比赛（可以用其他体育类比）中处于领先地位。如果你看长远的预测，我们已经有了直到2040年的管道供应和预测，特斯拉在电动汽车市场份额方面从未失去过领先地位。当然，随着时间的推移，他们的市场份额会逐渐减少，在2040年之前，一些其他品牌如丰田也会在市场份额上更接近他们，但特斯拉是一个强有力的现任者，我不会对他们抱有任何负面的预期，并且我认为今年再次证明了他们的良好表现。

What do you say by the way, what do you think about Toyota's like wait and see approach on EVs? I personally think it seems to be working well. When I talk to their dealers, to a person, they like that strategy. They think it lines up with what their customers are seeing. The market in general is seeing the most strength for hybrids and that path, and having an established expertise in making hybrids work I think historically has been good for Toyota and will continue to be a string.

顺便问一下，你对丰田电动车采取的观望态度有什么看法？我个人认为它似乎运作得很好。当我和他们的经销商交流时，无一例外都喜欢这种策略。他们认为这与他们的客户所看到的情况一致。整个市场都认为混合动力车型是最强势的发展方向，而丰田在制造混合动力车方面拥有成熟的专业知识，这在历史上对丰田而言一直是一种优势，而且将继续保持。

But they're also highly rumored to be near announcing something with solid state batteries that really change the whole battery electric landscape. And oh by the way, what's the one brand with real experience with hydrogen, which is you know the other fuel that would be would help to address some of the range and and other use cases like for medium and heavies. So you know Toyota is definitely one that I think for a variety of reasons has to be viewed as as a long-term strong performer here.

但是据传他们也很有可能很快公布一些关于固态电池的消息，这将真正改变整个电动电池领域。顺便说一下，你知道哪个品牌在氢燃料方面有真正的经验，而氢燃料是可以解决一些续航和中重型用途等问题的另一种燃料。所以，出于各种原因，我认为丰田肯定是一个长期强劲表现的品牌。

The rest, I would say it's it's sort of a mixed picture. You're gonna have some growing pains because some brands are going to have to work harder to sell the same number of vehicles because their traditional customer is not an easy sell in terms of where they live and their orientation towards accepting battery electrics. So there's I think some brands are going to struggle. Every brand is in this game, every brand has multiple models in the pipeline. Some are more aggressive than others. You're saying is like EV models specifically, right? Yes, yeah.

剩下的，我想说这是一种混合的局面。你将会面临一些成长的痛苦，因为一些品牌将不得不更加努力地销售相同数量的车辆，因为它们传统的客户在居住地和对接受电动汽车的倾向方面并不容易推动销售。所以我认为有些品牌将会遇到困难。每个品牌都在这个竞争中，每个品牌都有多个车型正在计划中。有的比其他品牌更有侵略性。你说的是专门指电动车型，对吗？是的，没错。

I want to flip back for a second to the use side. We know that here is like you mentioned a new side. We're seeing the state supply increasing very much on the with EVs with certain brands, but the average use cars up like I think 45% or so since 2019 pricing, roughly, correct me from wrong there, it's like 40-45%.

我想重新回到使用方面的话题。我们知道这里就像你之前提到的是一个新的方面。我们看到州级供应在某些品牌的电动汽车上大幅增加，但是自2019年以来，二手车的平均价格上涨了大约45%，请纠正我是否有误，大约是40-45%。

Or are we gonna see this slow but steady decline in use car prices? Are is this short supply gonna get us buoy prices and use cars are not coming down? Like you might as well forget about it if you're in a market for a use car. Where we at?

难道我们会看到二手车价格的缓慢但稳定下降？或者这种供需不平衡会推高价格，而二手车的价格不会下降？如果你正在寻找一辆二手车的话，你可能就别指望了。我们现在处于什么状态？

Yeah, I mean my view is that we are very close to what balanced market price level suggests where we should be, and in other words what I'm expecting to happen from this point forward is more traditional depreciation happening and no more price correction happening in the use vehicle market. And the reason why we're more likely to trend in that direction is because we still have a scarcity of vehicles available and it's especially true now more so in the use vehicle market than the new vehicle market. And that scarcity doesn't get solved for at least three more years.

是的，我的观点是我们非常接近一个平衡市场价格水平所暗示的我们应该处于的位置，换句话说，从现在开始我预计会发生更多传统的折旧，而二手车市场不会再出现价格调整。我们更有可能朝着这个方向发展的原因是我们仍然缺乏可用的车辆，尤其是现在二手车市场比新车市场更为明显。而且这个缺乏至少还需要三年才能解决。

Because we basically can't sell the same number of use retail vehicles in 2023, 24, 25 because we just don't have the flows coming through the wholesale market either through physical auctions or other platforms because the lack of least vehicles, the lack of rental vehicles, lower levels of repossessions, other things that basically fundamentally drive what's available for dealers to sell retail. Not so, it's going to be a supply is going to be limited.

因为我们基本上无法在2023年、2024年和2025年销售相同数量的二手零售车辆，原因是我们没有批发市场所需的流动性，无论是通过实体拍卖还是其他平台，都因为车辆供应不足、租赁车辆不足、回收车辆水平降低等原因，这些都是基本上驱动经销商能够零售出售的车辆数量的因素。所以说，供应量将会受到限制。

But yet on the demand side, this summer is living proof of the situation that as we simply see used vehicle values come down, we create demand. Because we've had thousands of people priced out of the market and we hit the peak in used interest rates in late March while the banking crisis was going on. And it's one of the positive factors that has certainly not got not only not gotten worse but has actually gotten better for the consumer since then.

然而在需求方面，今年夏天就是一个活生生的证明，即当我们看到二手车价值下降时，我们会创造需求。因为我们有成千上万的人无法承受市场价格，并且在银行危机时达到了二手车利率的峰值。自那时以来，这是一个正面因素，对消费者来说情况不仅没有恶化，而且实际上变得更好了。

Yes, we did see interest rates drift up in August, but to start September use rates are trending down again. We're more than a quarter of a point off of the peak for the year, but most importantly wholesale prices came down strongly in April, May, June, and July, and then that started to trickle into the retail market, especially more so in June and July and into August. So suddenly consumers who were looking. for a price point, looking for a specific monthly payment started to see it. And what happened? Sales started to pick up and we were seeing it loud and clear in our V auto data starting in early July and it's only progressively gotten better as we got through August. And I would argue it's proof that when you're in a tightly constrained market and you have no other big negatives happening like a recession unfolding if the consumer is employed and it's just a matter of affordability, then normal depreciation is going to create buying opportunities. It's just a matter of time.

是的，我们确实看到了利率在8月份上升，但是到了9月初，利率又开始下降了。与年初峰值相比，我们的利率已经下降了超过一个季度的点数，但更重要的是，批发价格在4月、5月、6月和7月大幅下降，然后开始渗入零售市场，尤其是在6月、7月和8月份更为明显。所以突然之间，正在寻找价格点和具体月付款的消费者开始看到了这一点。结果发生了什么？销售开始提升，我们从7月初开始在我们的汽车销售数据中清晰地看到了这一点，并且随着八月的进行，情况只变得越来越好。我认为这证明了在市场供应紧张且没有其他重大消极事件发生（比如正在发生的经济衰退）的情况下，如果消费者就业，并且只是一个可负担性的问题，那么正常的折旧就会创造购买机会。只是时间的问题。

What is normal depreciation like? What do you expect to see the normal year on a used car on a specific vehicle? It gets complicated when you look at averages like the man, I know that, but on a specific vehicle, you should see around 10 to 12% depreciation in an average year on an average car.

正常的折旧是怎样的？你对于一辆特定车辆的正常年折旧有什么期望？当你看到像平均值这样的数据时会变得复杂，我知道这一点，但对于一辆特定的车辆，在一个普通年份里，你应该会看到大约10%到12%左右的折旧率。

New brand new cars tend to lose more, older middle-aged cars tend to have a period where they lose the least amount, but over time it magically starts to. average 12% 10 to 12% down down a year and we've definitely not had normal depreciation for several years we also weren't driving as much too and if you think about depreciation what fundamentally two factors caused depreciation mileage and time because time you know things get old it's not quite as shiny and new you know all of those factors so let's talk about the other element here that might have a adverse impact on depreciation the strikes what is going on with these strikes but first of all

全新的汽车往往会贬值更多，而年龄较大的中年车则有一个贬值最少的阶段，但随着时间的推移，它们也会神奇地开始贬值。平均每年贬值10%至12%，但我们已经有好几年没有正常的贬值了，我们的行驶里程也没有那么多。如果你考虑到贬值，根本原因有两个因素：里程和时间，因为时间会让东西变旧，不再那么光亮和新。现在让我们谈谈可能对贬值产生不利影响的另一个因素：罢工。那么，这些罢工到底是怎么回事呢？首先。

do you think it's going to happen which I personally based on you know all the information I've been reading and consuming I think it will but I want to hear what you have to say and then second of all if it does happen what do you think will be the impact on the entire car industry yeah I I definitely think it will happen I see the parties as being were aligned there so to to for apart and with too much both sides believing they have too much to lose to sort of compromise early in this process so then it becomes a function of well then how broad is the strike and how long does it last and quickly I just I want to chime in for anyone that the audience that's not aware of this I just I doubt anyone is but just in case you know I did auto workers right workers that produce cars here in Detroit so they have been you know pretty much saying that they're going to be striking they want to increase pay and other things are short of work week or whatnot you could google it and get all this information but the long story short here is this could you know hinder or completely stop all new car production right which obviously would be a bad situation because again we would get into shorter situations all right back to you

你认为这会发生吗，基于我个人所了解的所有信息，我认为会发生，但我想听听你的意见。另外，如果它确实发生了，你认为对整个汽车行业会有什么影响？是的，我肯定认为会发生。我认为各方意见是一致的，双方都认为自己失去的太多，以至于在这个过程的早期阶段不愿妥协。所以，问题就变成了罢工的覆盖范围有多大，持续多长时间。最后，我想对不了解这个情况的听众进行简要说明，我怀疑任何人都不了解，但以防万一，我在底特律生产汽车的工人们一直在说他们将要罢工，他们希望增加工资和其他短工时等等，你可以搜索一下得到所有这些信息，但简而言之，这可能会阻碍或完全停止所有新车的生产，这显然是一个糟糕的局面，因为我们将面临供应紧张的情况，现在轮到你了。

Paragraph 1: that's right it would reverse a bit of the progress we've made or or potentially maybe at best just simply postpone further improvement so but that's where how broad the strike is because effectively the UAW only really impacts the traditional domestic brands so the question is do they strike one or all three or a combination the the I and I'm not an expert on on the labor market but from people that I truly respect and and I think you know have their finger on the polls the the odds on favorite to to have a strike is stellontus followed then by GM and Ford is probably below 50% probability of a Ford Ford just put out this video did you see a band chance did you see a little commercial no they just put out this commercial like I don't know like propaganda or something but you saw their Twitter page I was like hmm interesting it looked it was it was a bit rosy like I let's just put it like this basically what you're telling me right now that aligns with what they put out because it's a very rosy picture which it's you know based on what I've been seeing in hearing I was sort of surprised that they would put out something that rosy in this type of you know 10 days before their production is potentially not going to be working anymore so anyways well they're hoping that they keep those odds low it's not not unlike a political ad uh in election season I would yeah I would argue what it sounds like so then if you think about it none of the other brands that sell in the US are impacted by this so historically when strikes happen it really doesn't have a material impact on the aggregate sales numbers the last people to strike other brands or something yeah people other brands do better uh in those time frames and and take positions so the last big strike for the muaw was against GM it lasted over 40 days uh in 2019 uh I challenge you to look at the sales numbers and and find when that happened because you won't see it in your own numbers but that was also a market that was already over supplied um and had plenty of inventory on the ground for both GM brands and and other brands um so.

没错，这可能会扭转我们取得的一些进展，或者在最好的情况下，只是简单地推迟进一步的改善。但这取决于罢工的范围有多广，因为实际上只有美国汽车工人联合会（UAW）对传统的国内品牌产生了真正的影响。问题就在于他们是否会罢工一个或全部三个品牌，或者会同时罢工。我不是劳动力市场的专家，但从我真正尊重并且他们对形势有准确判断的人们那里得出的结论是，最有可能罢工的是斯特拉托斯，其次是通用汽车（GM），而福特的罢工概率可能不到50%。福特刚刚发布了一个视频，你看到了吗？似乎是一段宣传或者其他什么的。但你看到他们的Twitter页面了吗？我觉得很有意思。它看起来有点乐观，就这么说吧。根据我所见和所听到的，他们竟然在可能停产的前十天发布了这么乐观的东西，我有点吃惊。不过他们希望保持罢工概率较低，这有点像选举季节的政治广告，是吧。所以如果你想想，美国销售的其他品牌并不受此影响。历史上，当发生罢工时，它真的不会对总销售数字产生实质影响，其他品牌在那段时间内通常会表现更好并占据市场份额。上一次UAW与GM的大罢工持续了40多天，你可以查看销售数据，看看那段时间发生了什么，因为你在自己的数据中是看不到的。但那个市场已经供应过剩，并且各种品牌都有充足的库存。

Paragraph 1: you know this time could be different because we are coming out of the the uh the most constrained market we've we've ever been in um so I'm not saying that we won't necessarily see some in some impact where it would probably impact us the most uh is one no longer seeing inventory grow uh and starting to see days supply contract a bit along with that we would we would expect to see incentives no longer growing now that hasn't happened through August as I mentioned we're up over 100 percent in incentives year over year in the month of August so I think it's going to be first apparent in like uh the incentives that are being offered um you know how many low APR deals are being offered I would expect.

这一次可能会有所不同，因为我们正在走出我们经历过的最受限制的市场。我不是说我们不会看到一些影响，其中最主要的影响可能是我们不再看到库存增长，而是开始看到库存天数有所减少。与此同时，我们预计激励措施不再增加。尽管到目前为止（八月份），这种情况还没有发生，正如我所说，今年八月份的激励措施同比增长了100%以上，所以我认为首先会表现在提供的激励措施上，包括提供了多少低利率的交易。

Paragraph 2: all the manufacturers that aren't deliberately trying to gain share in this period uh to potentially become a little bit more conservative uh but mostly it's it's the dealers it's the dealers with the stores for the brands that are being disrupted uh that that face the biggest challenges do. you think the uh the UAW United Auto Workers do you think they're there may be like overplaying their hand I mean if you said stellantis they have the most inventory in the market right now like are they sitting in their boardroom like kind of chuckling like cool like let's take a 30 day break here get supply levels back down you just buy some time they're not under pressure like how do you view that well I I think they I think the UAW has some strong arguments behind what they're they're looking for uh in terms of of restitution of some uh of some pay and and benefits that were cut uh you know back in the great recession uh and essentially looking at uh lack of progress that they've experienced for for quite some time you you can argue that that they definitely had to have a reason uh to be holding holding out for more now deliberately choosing stellantis I don't know the details of the contract specifically uh with with stellantis and and why stellantis first but part of the reason why stellantis is so well supplied right now I think has been preparing for this deliberately uh being focused on having something to sell and knowing that they would most likely have a disruption come this fall stellantis was being conserved I mean they've had they've been what I would characterize relative to the market as over supplied all year long and they have not been super aggressive with incentives or financing deals or leasing or selling into fleet um they've done some of those things periodically but they've definitely been building up a war chest of inventory yeah to be able to leverage in this situation so it's it's two groups each with war chests each with in some cases someone argue existential reasons to be fighting and by the way one of those key reasons that both is worried about is electric vehicles because the user layer well the ua w is concerned that. unless they get concessions and agreements from the manufacturers uh that that future electrified plants will be unionized that some of those plants uh will not be unionized because uh building an electric vehicle is less work it's less complex it doesn't take as many uh workers you're working right up against companies like Tesla uh that are not unionized uh and and from that perspective um you know potentially have a have a cost advantage so you can you can see why both sides are very worried about it because if the future eventually becomes 80 percent 100 percent electrified then what is the ua w's role if none of those factories um

在这个时期，所有不是故意试图在此期间获得份额的制造商，可能会变得更加保守，但主要是经销商，对于那些受到干扰的品牌的经销商面临着最大的挑战。你认为联合汽车工人联合会（UAW）可能过份夸大自己的力量吗？我的意思是，如果你说stellantis现在市场上有最多的库存，他们是否坐在董事会会议室里笑着说，太好了，让我们休息30天，降低供应水平，争取时间呢。他们不受压力，你认为这是怎样的情况呢？嗯，我认为UAW在寻求恢复一些减薪和福利方面有一些有力的论点，你知道，在大衰退期间他们曾削减过。本质上看他们认为自己已经很长时间没有取得进展，你可以争辩说他们肯定有理由寻求更多。我不了解stelantis合同的具体细节，以及为什么首选stelantis，但stelantis目前库存充足的部分原因我认为是有意为之，专注于拥有可出售的商品，并知道今年秋天可能会发生干扰。可以说stelantis一直以来相对于市场来说库存处于过剩状态，并且他们一直没有过多地采取激励措施或融资交易或租赁或销售到车队。他们有时会做一些这些事情，但他们肯定一直在积累一个库存的战略储备，以便在这种情况下利用。所以这是两个拥有战略储备的团体，每个团体都有某种程度上争取生存的理由，顺便说一句，他们担心的一个关键原因就是电动汽车，因为UA W担心，除非他们从制造商那里获得让未来的电动工厂成为工会化的让步和协议，否则一些工厂将不会被工会化，因为制造电动车辆工作量较少，复杂性较低，不需要那么多的工人，他们将与特斯拉等没有工会组织的公司竞争，从这个角度来看，可能具有成本优势，所以你可以理解为什么双方都非常担心，因为如果未来最终变成80%到100%的电动化，那么UA W的角色会是什么，如果那些工厂没有一个。

Paragraph 3: so are you yeah i mean so let's say for a second right so uh strike happens you know we don't know how long it'll be but let's just say starts with stellantis you said people go flock to other brands are what are we going to seem q4 are we going to see inventory's decline prices start rising again or at least you know fewer discounts and rebates i would i would expect that to be the case in in a in aggregate um i certainly would would expect to see no no further progress on on the SAR um i would expect the SAR to you know have some of its lowest sales paces of the year for new new vehicle sales right just for people that don't know like SAR being the the amount of new new vehicles that are sold in a year pretty much yeah it's the it's the seasonally adjusted annualized rate for every month that essentially tells you this has kept that up for an entire year this is what your your pace would be and we are pacing right now what's the number year to date 15 for uh august was one of the slowest months uh since the very beginning of the year at 15 and what what was 2019 like 18 18 million or so uh 17 right on the dot 17 got it okay so we were at 18 8 13 8 22 what was 2021 uh it was it was a little bit higher i think it was 14 1 god so 13 8 was like the bottom at least for now yeah hopefully wow um a lot a lot of moving pieces

所以你是说嗯我是这个意思，我们假设一下，突然发生罢工，我们不知道要持续多久，但就假设从斯泰兰蒂斯（Stellantis）开始，你说人们会转向其他品牌，那么我们在第四季度会看到什么情况呢？我们会看到库存减少，价格再次上涨，或者至少会减少折扣和回扣，我预计会是这种情况。总体而言，我确实预计在销售年度调整后不会有进一步的增长。我预计销售年度调整会成为新车销售的最低销售速度之一，也就是每年销售的新车量，对于不了解的人来说，是这样的。对，这是每个月的季节性调整后的年化率，从而告诉你如果全年保持这样的步伐，你的销售速度将会是多少。而我们目前的销售速度是多少？截至到目前为止，八月份是自年初以来最慢的一个月，销售速度为15，那么2019年的销售速度是多少呢？大约是1800万，对了，准确来说是1700万。所以我们现在是18.8，13.8，22，那么2021年呢？稍微高一些，我想是14.1，天啊，13.8是目前的底线，希望如此，哇，很多变动。

All right, so before we jump into state of the lending market a lot of requests for like lending and interest rates and stuff like that is very interesting a lot of people are you know really curious about that um but before we jump into that like give us something give us some favorite buys like where do you see deals right now i mean you have your figures on the pulse here um but like where where do you see deals for consumers like what's uh what cars right now would you recommend to a friend if they're like hey i'm looking at a good deal right now what is it well electric the best price for almost any brand um you know that has been offered and you're far more likely to see incentives um what's interesting the tax credit the IRA created a really big the way the IRS interpreted the rules in the IRA created a very big loophole that more vehicles are available to get the tax credit if they're leased um than not but it's at the discretion of the finance company doing the lease on whether or not they actually apply it and so far we're not seeing consistent evidence that all brands are aggressively pursuing that so i would be looking at leasing offers because we are seeing lease offers improve um and they tend uh that that tends to be a place that manufacturers will go first before they go to more cash on the hood or deliberately cutting prices um you know in in the marketplace um i think we're seeing more buying opportunities and more discounting um all summer long uh in the luxury market uh so i think you're in much a better shape if you're if you're a traditional luxury buyer to be looking at luxury and again uh i i would be looking at leasing first uh that's potentially a place uh where uh the manufacturers are getting getting more aggressive um you know i can also highlight where i wouldn't start looking if you're purely looking for a deal yeah i mean toyota is the the lease supplied and and year to date has been uh the least amount of of discounting that's out there but historically toyota has always been that way uh so if instead you look at it of by you're no longer paying a premium i'm actually hearing some individual toyota dealers tell me that for the first time in august they're they're uh paying they're selling vehicles closer to invoice uh then stick to yoda dealers yeah yeah wow so i what cars are those are we talking corollas or i think it was a broad mix uh across the board and um again if you think about the situation toyota finally has supply and if that's happening with toyota then what do you cascade down to the competing brands the right guess is if you're in the market for uh for a vehicle then right now before the strike potentially starts to change behavior is the first couple of weeks of september you know it's a lot of people tell the folks not to buy until the last week of the month but uh that's actually not true across the board in terms of of getting the best deal on a vehicle actually you can quite often get some of the best financing deals early in the month um so what why is that um i'm not i'm not certain why that's the case but what what i what i tend to see in the data is that people who buy in the first week of the month tend to be the people that are most um actually price sensitive looking for specific new programs that are coming out and they seem to pull the trigger so you disproportionately get people who are we're hunting for like specific programs and and uh financing deals as opposed to just uh negotiating interesting yeah yeah maybe it could be you know with the people getting paid or something and you know they're the more kind of budget-conscious people so they just got paid and they're going to use the money towards the vehicle we've definitely seen that on like you know people get paid Fridays and stuff you see an uptick of just you know consumer traffic on Fridays right people get paid yeah come just you know buy a car.

好的，那么在我们深入了解贷款市场状况之前，很多人对贷款和利率等方面的请求非常感兴趣。但在我们深入讨论之前，给我们一些最受欢迎的购买选择，您现在在哪些方面看到了交易机会？毕竟，您对市场了如指掌。那么，对于消费者来说，您目前会推荐哪些车型给朋友，如果他们说“嘿，我现在想买个划算的车”？哪些车型价格最优，几乎适用于所有品牌，而且通常会有优惠政策。有趣的是，税收抵免规则在这方面创造了一个很大的漏洞，如果汽车是租赁的话，可以获得税收抵免，而如果不是租赁的话，则不一定会获得。但这取决于金融公司是否会实际执行该政策，到目前为止，我们并没有看到所有品牌都积极追求这一点。因此，我建议看一看租赁优惠，因为我们看到租赁优惠正在改善，而且制造商通常会首先提供租赁优惠，然后再提供现金折扣或有意降低价格。我认为整个夏季一直有更多购买机会和折扣，尤其是在豪华市场上。所以如果您是传统的豪华车购买者，我认为您现在会处于更好的位置，可以考虑购买豪华车，而且我还是首先会考虑租赁，制造商在这方面可能更有活力。当然，如果您纯粹是想找优惠的话，我也可以告诉您一些不建议的选择。比如说，丰田的租赁供应量和年度折扣金额一直是最少的，但从历史上看，丰田始终是这样。然而，我最近听到一些丰田经销商告诉我，八月份首次出现的情况是他们的车辆售价比成本价更接近，而不是老样子那样。哇哦，那是哪些车型，我们是指科罗拉还是其他？我认为涉及的车型相当广泛，如果您想想丰田现在终于有了供应，那么对于竞争品牌而言，情况会如何呢？如果您想买车，那么在罢工可能开始改变行为之前，九月的前几周可能是最好的时间。很多人告诉人们等到月底才购买，但实际上，对于获得车辆最佳交易，这种说法并不适用于所有情况。实际上，在月初，您通常会获得一些最好的融资优惠。可能是因为刚发薪水，你知道，那些更关注预算的人刚拿到了钱，然后他们就会把钱用在购车上。我们确实观察到这种情况，比如人们在星期五发薪水时，会看到消费者流量的增加。是的，人们得到了工资，所以他们更注重预算，因此他们花钱买车。

All right let's talk about um lending so what is the deal with lending right now um and just kind of walk us through if you can repossessions delinquencies right i did look at some Cox automotive data you know looks like we are from a delinquency or repossession perspective back to 2019 levels i want to say but i'll let you i'll let you kind of give us the delay of the land there yeah

好的，让我们谈一谈贷款。目前贷款方面是怎样的情况，如果可以的话，帮我们简要介绍一下违约和拖欠的情况。我查了一些Cox Automotive的数据，看起来从违约和收回的角度来看，我们回到了2019年的水平，但我会让你更详细地给我们解释一下。

so credit has is the market melting or are people overreacting the market is not melting i i i will definitely uh sort of call that out specifically if anything the market is simply normalizing in in some key metrics like defaults and repossessions and we're not even we're not even back to 2019 levels uh with with the those activities what is that number can you share that exact number with us sure um so the default rate for example and and that's that's what matters the most because a loan has to be in default before a repossession can happen um and we look at Equifax data uh every month uh to judge how auto loans are performing and uh year to date we've got a default rate in 2023 that is 2.5 percent and it was 2.9 percent uh last uh in 2019 uh last year it was 2.2 percent um up from an all-time low in 2021 of 2 percent so 2.5 percent of all auto loans in the market are in default and that's below 2019 levels of 2.9 percent okay got it

信用市场是否正在崩溃，还是人们反应过度了？市场并没有崩溃，如果有什么问题，我肯定会明确指出。市场只是在一些关键指标上趋于正常化，比如违约和回收，而且我们甚至还没有回到2019年的水平。可以告诉我们具体的数字吗？可以的，例如违约率，这是最重要的，因为在被回收前，贷款必须处于违约状态。我们每个月都会查看Equifax的数据来判断汽车贷款的表现，目前为止，2023年的违约率为2.5%，而2019年为2.9%，去年为2.2%，从2021年的历史低点2%上升。市场中约有2.5%的汽车贷款处于违约状态，低于2019年的2.9%。明白了。

So, that's well, that's below 2019 which is decent but what about s&p global put out this data which was like percent of ABS loans 60 plus days delinquent um and they showed that we are at the highest rates since 09 we're actually higher than 09 it's at about five and a half percent roughly talk to us about that what is that

那么，这个情况呢，低于2019年水平还算可以，但是标普全球发布的数据显示，ABS贷款逾期60天以上的比例已经达到09年以来的最高水平，实际上比09年还高，大约达到5.5%左右，请谈谈这是什么情况。

so that's that's been where we've seen more evidence of stress has been in delinquencies 30 and 60 day delinquencies on auto loans have been at record levels every month this year for the specific month there's strong seasonality in delinquencies uh people are are usually the furthest behind in January uh coming after the holidays. and pre-tax refunds and then when tax refunds hit delinquencies fall because people are using the tax refunds to catch up and then we start to see delinquencies rise again so we have been seeing delinquencies pick back up their piece of growth though slowed in the month of July and i'm anticipating in the month of august uh for for there to be less growth in uh severe delinquencies uh but from a total amount of people that are behind 30 to 60 days uh it is definitely at historic levels uh we've got data back to 2006 and it's the worst July uh compared to uh any July back to 2006 um so what we're not seeing happen is people are falling behind 30 or 60 days but they're not they're they're curing their situation

所以我们在违约情况中更多地看到了压力的证据，主要是在30天和60天的汽车贷款违约上，今年每个月都创纪录。对于特定的月份，违约情况存在较强的季节性，通常在一月份人们会拖欠最多，因为这是假日过后的时候，还有税前退款，而当纳税退款到账时，违约情况会下降，因为人们会利用纳税退款来弥补欠款，然后我们会看到违约情况再次上升。因此，在七月份，我们看到了违约情况再次上升，但增长速度放缓了，而我预计在八月份，严重违约情况的增长会减缓，但欠款超过30到60天的人数却达到了历史水平，我们的数据可以追溯到2006年，而今年七月份是自2006年以来最糟糕的七月份。我们没有看到的是人们逾期30或60天，但他们会采取措施来解决自己的情况。

and that was gonna be my next question to you right like what are these loan extensions like that's a cheating like how can you just extend the loan like what is this explain this to me because i i did not come from this world right so i view this like so simplistically right alone. is delinquent how can you it's about to go into default how can you extend that or is that just the bank saying hey we don't want to take that we don't want to realize that loss yet or what's the deal

这是我接下来想问你的一个问题——贷款延期是什么意思，这好像是一种欺诈行为，怎么可以随意延长贷款期限？请你为我解释一下，因为我并不了解这个世界，我很简单地认为贷款逾期就是违约了，怎么可以延长期限呢？或者这只是银行不想承担损失，暂时不想面对贷款违约的事？

good well two two two things and it's actually key to understanding why this is actually a symptom of inflation versus a symptom of absolute distress that leads to further problems and credit uh really evaporating and in the auto market um usually delinquencies are high when people are losing their jobs people are not losing their jobs people uh we have i mean yes the unemployment rate ticked up in the month of august but it was because more people came into the labor force we've actually added a over four million more people to the payroll rolls uh since the pandemic and uh we've had historic you know beyond 50 year lows of uh the unemployment rate and most importantly for every unemployed person there's one and a half jobs available to them which is leading to above average wage growth so usually lenders are are worried when people are losing their jobs and you don't cure somebody who's 60 days behind uh and extend their loan or come up with a new payment plan uh for them uh in in circumstance when when they're not gain gainfully employed um so that's a key difference

这实际上是理解为什么这实际上是通货膨胀的症状而不是绝对困境导致进一步问题和信用的干涸的关键所在。在汽车市场上，通常当人们失去工作时拖欠款项较高，而当人们不失去工作时这种情况就不会发生。是的，在八月份失业率有所上升，但这是因为更多的人加入劳动力市场，事实上自疫情爆发以来我们已经有超过四百万人加入了工资卷中。我们的失业率历史上也创下了50年来最低水平，最重要的是，对于每一个失业的人，有一个半份工作可供选择，这导致了异常的工资增长。所以通常当人们失去工作时，借款人会担心，而当他们没有稳定的工作时，你不会为他们解决未付款60天的问题，延长贷款期限或者制定新的还款计划，这就是一个关键的区别。

The other difference is vehicle values as we were sharing vehicle values have not and will not go back to the levels that they were in 2019 um where we actually see uh loan vintages uh loan in the in the loan performance world people talk about vintages so it's it's based on what month was the loan created um well loan vintages for new vehicle loans there's not a single vintage yet that has uh above that has below average uh positive equity meaning every new loan that's been made uh has basically more equity in it than it normally does at this stage in its life and it's when though what type period are you talking about all time periods i'm talking all active vintages of of new loans um and bulling them.

另一个区别是车辆价值。由于我们共享车辆价值，这些价值不会回到2019年的水平。在贷款业绩领域中，人们谈论贷款的“产量”（vintages），这是根据贷款创建的月份而定。对于新车贷款来说，迄今为止不存在任何一个产量低于平均正股权的情况，也就是说每个新贷款在生命周期的这个阶段比通常情况下都有更多的股权。我所指的是所有不同时间段的贷款，对它们进行汇总。

Down to each other so people yeah so inflation pushed up values people obviously have more equity in their vehicles inflation pushed up values and people have put the most they've ever put as down payments on auto loans over the last three years so they started from an out of position as well so what does that actually mean like does that just mean that banks are okay with extending your loan because they know you have so much equity in that car and yes i believe in the cases that uh lenders are actually doing that but it it often also means that consumers can cure their own situation and sell the vehicle and you've got more dealers buying directly from consumers you had giving the vint on you know you've got all of these venues to potentially capture the equity uh in the vehicle uh that are that that's far easier for consumers so fundamentally i think that and being employed and having above average wages are causing consumers to sort of cure their situation either with the lender or or buy their own activities we do see problems with where there are our problems with loan vintages are used loans made in the second half of 2021 and virtually all of 2022 they have above average defaults uh they have below average equity in their vehicles because those people bought at the peak of used vehicle prices and have seen above average depreciation since then so that reduces the options that those consumers have either in the marketplace or with the lender.

人们彼此倾向，对车辆的通胀推高了价值，显然人们的车辆拥有更多的资产权益。过去三年中，人们对汽车贷款进行了前所未有的大额首付，所以他们也从一个不利位置出发。那其实是什么意思呢，是不是意味着银行同意延长你的贷款期限，因为他们知道你的车辆有很高的资产价值？是的，在某些情况下，我相信贷款人确实是这样做的，但通常这也意味着消费者可以自己解决问题，把车辆卖掉，有更多的经销商直接从消费者那里购买，你知道，你还有可能利用各种方式获取车辆中的资产价值，这对消费者来说要容易得多。所以从根本上说，我认为就业和高于平均水平的工资使消费者能够在贷款人或者通过自己的活动中解决问题。我们确实看到了问题，使用于2021年下半年和几乎所有2022年的贷款有着高于平均水平的违约情况，这些车辆在购买时正值二手车价格的高峰期，并且自那时以来经历了高于平均水平的折旧，所以这减少了这些消费者在市场上或者与贷款人交易的选择。

Does that pose any systemic risk or is that just like some vintage that's going to get wiped out and do the rest of the history like i don't think it causes systemic risk because what we see with uh the asset back securities or the specific lenders is the rest of their portfolio is performing better than normal so even at an individual lender basis uh you're you're not likely to see defaults even kind of get back to to full normal levels it would take a recession it would take a scenario of people losing their jobs in the millions uh to really cause more more of a systemic issue

这是否会造成系统性风险，还是只是像一些即将被清除的古董，对其他历史并没有什么影响？我认为这不会引起系统性风险，因为根据我们对资产支持证券或具体贷款人的观察，他们的其他投资组合表现比正常情况更好，即使在个别贷款人的基础上，你也不太可能看到违约达到完全正常水平的情况，这需要经济衰退，需要数百万人失业的情况才能真正引起更多的系统性问题。

got it and moving forward from here right based on trend what do you see happening with delinquencies and repose for the next you know two to three quarters or at least two quarters what are you seeing there

得到了，并从这一点开始，根据趋势来看，你认为未来两到三个季度，或者至少两个季度违约和回收会发生什么？你在那里看到些什么？

well i'm hoping to see delinquencies no longer go up i'm expecting that because real wages have turned positive this summer meaning when you look at wage growth relative to inflation rate most households are now back to a scenario that at the end of the month they're getting ahead rather than falling behind and if so i would expect with prioritization for auto people don't want to lose their vehicles they know how expensive it is um you know to replace it especially if their credit gets dinged um i'm expecting delinquencies to improve or at a minimum not get worse and i'm not expecting defaults to in the year even back to 2019 levels but i'm expecting them to slowly move in that direction which means that yes we will continue to see more repossessions um each week each month because we're simply uh returning to normal uh default rates from a very low level of defaults plus by the way we have record number of loans uh outstanding so that alone even at the default rate was consistent you would you would see um more defaults happening and more repos happening purely as a function of the of the population

希望不再看到违约情况上升，我有这个期望的原因是今年夏天实际工资增长转为正值，这意味着当你将工资增长与通胀率相对比时，大多数家庭现在回到了月底能够超前而不是落后的情况。如果是这样的话，我预计对于汽车贷款人来说，他们不想失去车辆，他们知道如果他们的信用受损，更换车辆是多么昂贵。我期望违约率会有所改善，或者至少不会变得更糟。我不期望违约率会回到2019年的水平，但我期望它们会慢慢朝着这个方向发展，这意味着是的，我们每周每月都会继续看到更多的汽车被回收，因为我们只是从非常低的违约率恢复到正常的违约率，此外，我们目前有创纪录的贷款数量未偿还，即使在违约率保持一致的情况下，也会看到更多的违约和回收，这完全是由于人口的增长而造成的。

all right so i want to i want to kind of sum this up super simply right so first of all if if you're in the market for a car you said look for EVs because they're as from a deal perspective those are the best deals in the market right yes great and then use car outlook next three to six months what do you see there i think many people should continue to see lower prices on used vehicles so it's going to open up opportunities to buy if you're looking for a specific price point or a specific monthly payment where the action seems to be the most this year the part of the use car market that's been strongest are on certified pre-owned vehicles and those can be officially from manufacturers but i would say many dealers also offer their own certified program and in in many cases that's a super win for a consumer because even though the vehicles uh advertised price may be higher than a non-certified. unit when you factor in what you're getting with an extended warranty in many cases and with what is uh most of the time a much better interest rate you end up with a monthly payment that more than compensates for the you know higher price paid so it's a it's a win-win for the dealer and the consumer a lot

好的，那么我想简单总结一下。首先，如果你正在市场上购买一辆车，你说应该选择电动汽车，因为从交易的角度来看，它们是市场上最好的交易。是的，很好。接下来，对于未来三到六个月的二手车市场，你有什么看法？我认为很多人应该会继续看到二手车价格下降，这将为购买提供机会，尤其是如果你正在寻找特定价格或特定月供额度的车辆。今年二手车市场最活跃的地方是认证二手车，这些车辆可以是由制造商正式认证的，但我会说很多经销商也提供自己的认证计划。在很多情况下，这对消费者来说是一个超级优势，因为尽管认证车的标价可能高于非认证车，但考虑到延长的保修期和通常更好的利率，你最终得到的月供将更多地弥补了你支付更高的价格，所以这对经销商和消费者来说都是个双赢的局面。

all right so so give us the rest of your takeaways like anything else that we missed right we spoke EVs we spoke Teslas we spoke strikes new car use car lending what am i missing

好的，那么请告诉我们其他的收获，像是我们忽略的东西。我们谈论了电动汽车，谈论了特斯拉，谈论了罢工，新车使用以及二手车租赁，我们还缺少什么内容？

well i mean looking out the horizon you know we're constantly trying to figure out what's going to happen next week next month and the next five hours and i think the worst is behind us i'm increasingly optimistic that we'll avoid a recession for the economy i think the consumer remains resilient because of the labor market and i think we can thread the needle um and and make it through if so the vehicle market is past its worst point in every channel and our outlook has growth in every channel meaning every sales channel whether you're a franchise dealer an independent dealer looking at the used market versus new all of it has growth in the years ahead but i would argue it's a mixed story because when you look at it what we're going to take is five years to get us back to 2019 levels of transactions so competitively if you're a dealer in the marketplace it's actually going to be just as hard if not harder we're supply constrained unused vehicle inventory so a lot of dealers especially franchise dealers have enjoyed tremendous growth in the used market and the playing field is going to be a little bit more level between independent dealers and franchise dealers over the next several years unlike the environment we've had for the last five years that has decidedly favored franchise dealers at the expense of independent dealers

嗯，我的意思是，我们一直在展望未来，试图弄清下周、下个月甚至未来五小时会发生什么。我认为最糟糕的时期已经过去了，我越来越乐观地认为经济不会陷入衰退。我认为消费者因为劳动力市场的原因仍然保持弹性，我认为我们可以成功度过难关。所以说，车辆市场在每个渠道都已经过了最糟糕的时期，我们的展望显示每个销售渠道都将实现增长，无论你是特许经销商还是独立经销商，无论是看中古市场还是新车市场，都会有增长的机会。但我认为这是一个两面性的故事，因为我们将需要五年时间才能恢复到2019年的交易水平。竞争上，如果你是市场上的经销商，实际上将变得同样或者更加困难，因为我们的未使用库存车辆供应受限。所以很多经销商，特别是特许经销商，在二手市场上享受到了巨大的增长，未来几年内独立经销商和特许经销商之间的竞争将会更加公平，而不再是过去五年中明显偏向特许经销商、对独立经销商不利的环境。

why do you think it's going to be a bit more level though because of the age of vehicles that are available to sell in the car park what we're missing are vehicles that are less than five years of age which is precisely what franchise dealers sell and what we have millions more of available you just need to get the consumers to sell them to you. or trade them in

你为什么认为情况会趋于更加平稳呢？这是因为停车场上可供出售的车辆年龄较大。我们缺少的是不到五年车龄的车辆，而这正是特许经销商销售的车辆类型，我们还有数百万辆此类车辆可供出售，你只需要说服消费者将它们卖给你或进行置换。

our vehicles that are more than five years of age and so for franchises to even maintain their level of used retail sales they're going to have to sell older vehicles which is putting them in the domain of competing more directly with independence and I think some are going to choose to sell fewer used vehicles and they'll be happy because the new market is coming back for them and they're much more profitable than they have been there and they're seeing profits and other parts of their business but it's still going to be a rough road for independence

我们的车辆超过五年以上了，所以为了连续维持二手零售销售水平，特许经销商不得不销售更老的车辆，这使得他们更直接地与独立经销商竞争。我认为一些特许经销商会选择销售更少的二手车辆，并且他们会感到高兴，因为新车市场正在回暖，对他们来说更具盈利性，他们也在业务的其他部分看到了利润，但对于独立经销商来说仍然是一条艰难的路。

so using just independence or it's are going to are going to suffer the most no I think it again that inventory leveling out a little bit will help independence do better than they then they have because this is their this is their what it was it called their flywheel yeah they can operate and they they know best how to perform and there's no question that if you cater to a credit challenge consumer that's where there's pent up demand there's been an absence of people buying over the last two years that I think will increasingly come back into the market as we see interest rates come down and they will come down I'm not optimistic that we're going to see rates down three full percentage points from where we are today but I would be willing to bet within two years will be down at least two full percentage points and that can make a meaningful difference

所以仅依靠独立性或者并非他们将会遭受最大的损失，不，我再思索一下，库存平衡会帮助独立性比以往表现得更好，因为这是他们的，它被称为什么，对了，他们可以运作，他们最了解如何表现，并且毫无疑问，如果你迎合有信用挑战的消费者，那里会存在积压的需求，过去两年人们购买的需求一直不存在，但我认为随着利率下降，这种需求将会逐渐回归市场，而利率确实会下降，我不乐观地认为我们将看到利率从今天起下降三个百分点，但我愿意打赌，在两年内我们将至少下降两个百分点，这可能会产生重大影响。

uh uh do you think so what do you what do you have to say to the like the higher for longer camp right people think rates are going to be higher longer why do why do you think rates are going to come down well I think in terms of Fed policy I I you have to buy what they're selling right now and believe that they're going to remain high yeah I I think most most of what I'm seeing from macro economists is that the Fed probably won't start cutting until late next year and when they do they're probably going to cut rates by about two full percentage points but it'll probably be gradual like quarter a point every quarter or something like that so it'll take us one to two years to see those rates come down but use rates are a function of the bond market and the risk premium that lenders are charging in terms of their specific yield spread and actually yield spreads have outpaced what the Fed has done this year so we could see use loan rates come down half a percentage point or even more simply if the delinquency rates uh start to flatten out and and improve and if the economy turns the corner and there's less uncertainty there

嗯，你这样认为吗？你有什么话要对像"更高更久"阵营的人说吗？人们认为利率会持续上升，你为什么认为利率会下降呢？我认为从联邦政策来看，你必须去相信他们现在所宣传的，并且相信他们会保持高利率。我认为大多数宏观经济学家认为，联邦储备系统可能要到明年底才会开始降息，而且当他们开始降息时，可能会将利率下调两个百分点，但可能是逐步的，每个季度可能降低0.25个百分点左右，所以要过一到两年才能看到利率下降，但实际利率是由债券市场和债权人的风险溢价决定的，实际债券溢价已经超过了联储今年的行动，所以如果拖欠率趋于稳定和改善，如果经济走出低谷，减少了不确定性，我们可能会看到使用贷款利率下降半个百分点甚至更多。

okay starts with that kind of proof yeah because lenders are going to be willing they are often more willing to be more aggressive and they ought to market because the collateral is easier to retrieve and if we're proving the vehicle values have no more correction to them again that just reinforces their yeah it can be a little bit more risk-all mm-hmm yeah

好的，先从这种证明开始，是因为放贷人愿意，他们通常更愿意更加积极地进行市场营销，因为抵押品更容易取回。如果我们证明车辆价值不再有更正的余地，这进一步加强了他们的观点，是有一点更多风险的。

um I love it Jonathan smoke this is great very insightful I think people are going to love it so any any last thoughts oh just keep it up guy you you've done the industry and consumers alike a service with this I enjoy listening to every single one of the podcasts there's always something I wear you have to tell us one secret do you have a twitter burner account yes or no a twitter burner account you're not active we don't see you active enough yeah I was you know sometimes you know do a little tweeting and this and that so I I do actually have two different accounts because I have to let my anger out but that's typically about it's typically about sports teams and not so much about the vehicle market fair enough listen if you would have said no I wouldn't believe you anyway so I love it all right um dude this was great thanks so much and I will talk soon all right hope you enjoyed that episode please give the podcast a rating consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about thanks for tuning in I'll see you guys next time

嗯，我喜欢这个杰尼森吸烟很棒，非常有洞察力，我认为人们会喜欢的，所以有没有什么最后的想法呢？噢，继续努力吧，伙计，你这样做对整个行业和消费者都是一个贡献。我喜欢听每一期的播客，总是有一些我希望你能告诉我们一个秘密，你有一个推特的匿名账号，是吗？是或不是？一个推特的匿名账号，你没有太活跃，我们没有看到你活动得够多。是的，有时候我会发一些推文之类的东西，我实际上有两个不同的账号，因为我需要发泄一下愤怒，但通常只涉及体育队，而不是汽车市场。没错，听你这么说，我也不会相信你说没有。好的，太棒了，谢谢你，我们很快会交流的。好的，希望你喜欢这一集，请给这个播客评分，考虑订阅这个节目，并查阅节目说明中我们讨论的链接。感谢您的收听，下次见。