New Tesla Semi Data Just Released + Giga Mexico Report, China Sales

Hey everybody Rob Merritt here and today we've got some pretty interesting new data on the Tesla Semi. We've also got updates on Giga Mexico, China and a few other items as well. Not quite as fun of a day for Tesla stock today, finishing down 2.2% after yesterday's up 10% performance, today closing at $267.48, while the NASDAQ was down 1% on the day. Of course today is the day that the Walter Isaacson Elon Musk biography has been published. I'm definitely still working my way through it, but we'll see. I'm sure we're going to continue to hear more about that throughout the week. Elon did also appear as a guest at the All-In Podcast Summit. I don't think there was too much in here, Tesla related, I haven't listened to the entire interview yet, but the time stamps definitely make it seem a little bit more general. I did see that Elon had some more positive comments about the trend at least for ad revenue, for X or Twitter. I think that's always welcome news as the more stable that X is, the less risk there is of Elon having to further support that financially through the share of Tesla shares.

大家好，这里是罗布·梅里特。今天我们有一些关于特斯拉卡车的相当有趣的新数据。我们还有关于千吉尔墨西哥、中国和其他几个项目的更新。对于特斯拉的股票来说，今天并不是一个很好的日子，昨天股票上涨了10%，而今天收盘时下跌了2.2%，股价为267.48美元，与当天纳斯达克指数下跌1%相比。当然，今天是沃尔特·艾萨克森出版伊隆·马斯克传记的一天。我正在阅读中，但我们将会在整个星期继续听到更多相关的消息。伊隆也作为嘉宾出现在了All-In播客峰会上。我认为这里关于特斯拉的内容不太多，我还没有完整听完采访，但时间戳确实让它看起来更普遍化一些。我确实看到伊隆对X或Twitter广告收入趋势发表了更多积极的评论。我认为这总是受欢迎的消息，因为X越稳定，伊隆就越不需要通过特斯拉股票来进一步支持它的财务状况的风险就越小。

Alright, so getting into Tesla updates, I want to start off with the Tesla Semi we've talked before about the Run on Less event, which is an event that takes a really close look at trucking fleets and their efficiency to hopefully help improve these numbers over time. So the exciting thing is that this is the first year that Tesla Semi's are participating in this event through Pepsi. And the first day of data for the trucks that are being tracked has now been published. We're actually going to get many more days of this type of data, but what we've got already is very interesting. So they basically track the trucks, they track their state of charge, how far they've traveled the speed that they're traveling at, the external temperature. Unfortunately from the dashboard here, it doesn't look like we get information on elevation or cargo weight. I'm sure the event has those things and maybe we'll see them published in the future, but still a nice collection of pretty precise data that we get to review here.

好的，关于特斯拉的最新更新，我想先从特斯拉半挂车开始说起。我们之前谈过“少开多收”赛事，它是一个非常关注货运车队及其效率的赛事，希望通过时间的推移来改善这些数字。所以令人兴奋的是，今年首次有特斯拉半挂车通过百事公司参与了这个赛事。目前正在追踪的卡车的第一天数据已经发布了。我们将获得更多这类型数据的天数，但我们已经得到的数据非常有趣。基本上，他们追踪卡车的电量情况、行驶里程、行驶速度和外部温度。不幸的是，从仪表盘上看，我们似乎无法获得海拔或货物重量的信息。我相信赛事会有这些数据，也许我们将在未来看到它们的发布，但这已经是一个不错的精确数据收集，我们可以在这里进行审查。

So again, there are three trucks from Tesla that are participating in this right now. I will link to this dashboard so people can go and review this data on their own, but let's take a look at truck number three, because this is the truck that put on the most miles on day one. It's actually over 500 miles. However, that is with a stop to charge.

所以，现在有三辆特斯拉卡车正在参与此次活动。我将提供一个链接到这个仪表板，让人们可以自己查看这些数据，但我们来看看第三辆卡车，因为这辆卡车在第一天行驶的里程最多。实际上超过了500英里。但是，这是经过充电停留的行驶里程。

So looking at kind of the breakdown of vehicle state of energy and the distance traveled, they started off this vehicle with 94.83% state of charge. I'm not sure where they're getting that from exactly, but because this is a fleet vehicle for Tesla, they probably give more information on these things to their customers.

看到车辆能量状况和行驶距离的简单分析，这辆车起始时电量为94.83%。我不确定他们是从哪里得到这个数据的，但由于这是特斯拉的一辆企业车辆，他们可能会向客户提供更多这方面的信息。

So I would guess this is pretty accurate, but there is always a chance that this could be a percentage of a max charge that Pepsi sets. Maybe that's 90% of the actual capacity or something like that, since they may want to prevent charging up to 100%. I don't think it's likely, but it's a possibility. And even if not, then there could still be some buffer beyond it. So just take that new account, but anyway, starts at 94.83%. Then over the course of a trip goes down all the way to 1.7%.

我猜这应该相当准确，但总有可能这可能是百事可乐设定的最大充电量的百分比。也许这是实际容量的90％之类的，因为他们可能希望防止充到100％。我认为这不太可能，但也有可能。即使不是这样，它仍然可能有一些缓冲区域。所以就把那个新的账户记住，总之，开始时是94.83％。然后在整个行程中逐渐下降到1.7％。

Now that trip was 377 miles, according to this data. We can then extrapolate that for what it would be to go from 100% to 0%. And in these conditions, that extrapolates to 405 miles of range. So obviously that's a good number, maybe not the 500 miles that Tesla has talked about. But again, we don't know all of the conditions here. We don't know the payload. We don't know the elevation change. It does give us some interesting temperature data. So temperature range from 94 degrees Fahrenheit to 66 degrees Fahrenheit. So pretty wide range.

根据这组数据，现在的行程为377英里。我们可以根据这个数据推断出从100%到0%需要多远。在这种条件下，这相当于405英里的续航里程。所以显然这是一个不错的数字，也许不及特斯拉所说的500英里，但我们不了解具体所有的条件，例如负载和海拔变化。这组数据提供了一些有趣的温度信息，温度范围从94华氏度到66华氏度，相当大的变化范围。

We don't know the average over this. We do know the speed though. So for this leg of the trip, speed looks like it was probably a little bit of a bit probably pretty close to 65 miles per hour for the majority of the trip. So again, missing some key data that would help us draw a better conclusion, specifically that elevation, we have seen Tesla do the 500 mile trip in the semi. I think this helps validate that, but only to an extent it would be nice if this was extrapolating closer to that 500 mile range.

我们不知道这个区段的平均值。但我们知道速度。因此，在这段旅程中，速度看起来可能接近65英里/小时。所以，再次强调，我们缺少一些关键数据，这些数据可以帮助我们得出更好的结论，特别是有关海拔的数据。我们已经看到特斯拉在半挂车上实现了500英里的行程。我认为这有助于证实这一点，但只有在更接近500英里的范围内才能得到更具说服力的结论。

For the other two trucks, those extrapolated doing the same kind of math on the graphs that we're seeing to 402 miles for truck two and actually four 434 miles for truck one. So getting even a little bit closer there with truck one speed is always going to make a big difference here too. So slow that down to 60 miles per hour, 55 miles per hour. That's going to increase that extra. Pretty significantly as for charging.

对于另外两辆卡车，根据我们所观察到的图表，进行了相同类型的数学外推，得出卡车二的行驶里程为402英里，而卡车一的行驶里程实际上为434英里。所以即使卡车一的速度稍微减慢到60英里/小时、55英里/小时，这也会在充电方面产生相当大的影响。

We do get some insight on this because we see state of charge and time. I'm sure we'll get more examples of this as more data comes in, but one truck, for example, went from 19% state of charge to 79% state of charge in about 53 minutes. Another truck went from 16% up to 80% in 55 minutes. And about 80% is when that charging rate seems to start to taper off a bit. There doesn't seem to be much tapering before that. So I would guess that earlier in the state of charge, there's probably more potential here. Hopefully at some point we'll see something like a 5% to 70% that we can take a look at. Anyway, we'll continue to keep an eye on that data as it comes in. Again, the link for those dashboards is in the description. All right.

我们确实可以从电量和时间方面得到一些见解。随着更多数据的出现，我相信我们将会得到更多这方面的例子。例如，一辆卡车在大约53分钟内从19%的电量增加到79%的电量。另一辆卡车在55分钟内从16%增加到80%。大约在80%左右的电量时，充电速率似乎开始稍微降低。在此之前似乎没有太多降低的情况。所以我猜在电量较低的时候可能有更多潜力。希望在某个时候我们会看到从5%到70%这样的数据供我们研究。总之，我们将继续关注这些数据的变化。这些仪表板的链接在描述中。好的。

Next up, we've got a report on Giga Mexico, kind of a hot topic over the last few days. Today's report is that Tesla is actually going to be increasing their investment in Giga Mexico. And these reports come from comments from the governor of New O'Billio and who we often hear from who said in translation, quote, the plant that we announced in March, erase it from the map, looks like it will be twice as big. Tesla and suppliers alone are going to generate $15 trillion of investment in two years, end quote. So it sounds like he actually said trillion, but it was clarified that meant $15 billion in US dollars, and to be clear, that is not just Tesla's investment, but the investment that they expect from Tesla and their suppliers.

接下来，我们有一份关于Giga Mexico的报告，这是最近几天的热门话题。今天的报告是特斯拉实际上将增加对Giga Mexico的投资。这些报道来自新奥比利奥州州长的评论，他经常发表讲话。引用他的话说，“我们在三月份宣布的那个工厂，可以把它从地图上抹掉了，看起来它将是现有规模的两倍。仅特斯拉和供应商在两年内将产生1.5万亿美元的投资。”所以听起来他确实说了万亿，但澄清说这是指150亿美元，并且明确一点，这不仅仅是特斯拉的投资，还包括他们预计从特斯拉和供应商那里获得的投资。

The report is that this is roughly triple for roughly double the size factory as before, but I would take those figures with a little bit of a grain of salt. People could be comparing different phases of the factory versus the total factory could be comparing non-supplier funds versus just Tesla, et cetera. But directionally, it sounds like the investment plan has increased from these comments.

报告显示，这个工厂的规模大约是之前的两倍，但是对于这些数字，我会持保留意见。人们可能在比较工厂的不同阶段，或者对非供应商资金与特斯拉资金等进行比较。然而，从大致方向上看，这似乎意味着投资计划有所增加。

This particular article from El Norte also talks about the timeline, so this is not directly from the governor's comments, but they say that some of the permitting could take six months in an optimistic scenario, and then that could lead to even more permitting after that. But I'm not sure if that's inclusive of time that Tesla may have already spent doing those things. And then they say from then it would take about 36 months to complete based on the information that they have. So I don't know how accurate that is, but they're saying that that could suggest operations starting in 2027. So it sounds like this is kind of a similar report as what Reuters had previously reported. It might be coming from the same sort of source of information. So I don't take it as validation, but again, it seems to be coming up. So in general, it looks like Gigamexico may be a little bit later, but also maybe a little bit bigger than what was initially planned. Maybe we'll hear a little bit more about that from Tesla, but generally they kind of keep those things a little bit close to the chest.

这篇来自《北方报》的特别文章也谈到了时间表，所以这并不是直接来自州长的评论，但他们说，在乐观的情况下，一些许可可能需要六个月的时间，然后之后可能还需要更多的许可。但我不确定这是否包括特斯拉可能已经花费的时间。然后他们说根据他们掌握的信息，完成这个项目大约需要36个月。所以我不确定这有多准确，但他们说这可能意味着2027年开始运营。所以听起来这个报道与路透社先前报道的是相似的。可能来源于同样的信息源。所以我并不将其视为证实，但似乎确实出现了。总的来说，Gigamexico可能会比最初计划的时间晚一些，但也可能会更大一些。也许我们会从特斯拉那里听到更多相关消息，但一般来说，他们对这些事情保持得比较严密。

All right. Next up, we've got another week of China insured vehicle numbers, the week of September 4th through September 10th. This week there were 10,700 vehicles from Tesla registered in China. Not surprising given the change over that we're seeing in the Model 3, but that does continue the drop that we've seen over the last couple of weeks down from 11,800 the week prior. This moves the quarter to date number through 10 weeks up to 111,700 vehicles. That is just above the quarter to date trend for Q2 through 10 weeks, at which point Q2 was at 111,100. So 600 vehicles fewer. Q2 ended very strongly though, ultimately making it just shy of 160,000. So to send another record, Tesla would need to do about 16,000 per week over the next 3 weeks. That looks very unlikely, almost impossible, given that that would need to be accomplished without much of a contribution from Model 3. I'd be surprised if the numbers over the next few weeks are materially higher than kind of where we're at right now, this 10,000 level, especially because the Model 3's that Tesla is producing right now, those are likely destined for Europe. So I can send a big batch over to Europe and then keep producing domestically for China and then kind of deliver all of those around the same time. Since we've been talking about this for the whole quarter, hopefully no surprises there.

好的。接下来，我们有中国保险车辆数量的另一个星期统计数据，即9月4日至9月10日。本周中国注册的特斯拉车辆有10,700辆。考虑到我们在Model 3上所看到的变化，这并不令人惊讶，但这也延续了过去几周的下降趋势，上周注册数量为11,800辆。到目前为止的十周内，季度累计注册数量已达111,700辆。这比第二季度同期的111,100辆稍高，少了600辆。不过第二季度以非常强劲的势头结束，最终将注册数量提升到了近160,000辆。因此，要再创下一个记录，特斯拉在接下来3周内需要每周销售大约16,000辆，这看起来非常不可能，几乎不太可能，因为这需要在很大程度上不依赖Model 3的贡献。我会对接下来几周的数字比现在略高的情况感到惊讶，特别是考虑到特斯拉现在生产的Model 3很可能是为欧洲市场准备的。所以我可以先批量向欧洲运送一批车辆，然后继续在中国生产，并在差不多同一时间交付所有这些车辆。由于我们整个季度都在谈论这个问题，希望不会有任何意外。

Some other quick news on the updated Model 3, John Nguyen is reporting on X that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved Tesla's registration to begin selling this vehicle, although it sounds like that won't actually take effect until a week from today, September 19th. Next up, we've got an article from automotive news on Tesla registrations and EV registrations in general in the US through July. This data comes from Experian, may not be perfect, but they're saying that EV registrations in that 7-month period were 656,000 vehicles up 67% year over year. That puts EV market share at just over 7%. They say Tesla had 390,000 registrations in that period, 50% increased year over year, and just about 60% of the US EV market share. Of that, they say 236,000 Model Y, that's more than double last year, and 131,000 Model 3, a 21% increase. For Model S and Model X, they say that Model S fell 51%. You've got a number of things there, tax credits, lower prices for 3 and Y, international exports, and of course, high interest rates. So we've seen Tesla react to that now, we'll see how that changes with the lower prices. All the same things affecting Model X, but Model X dropping 14% year over year according to this data.

在关于升级版Model 3的新闻中，约翰·阮报道称，工业和信息化部已批准特斯拉开始销售该车型的注册，尽管听起来实际上要到从今天起的一周后生效，即9月19日。接下来，我们有一篇关于特斯拉注册和美国整体电动汽车注册情况的汽车新闻。这些数据来自Experian，可能不完美，但他们表示，这7个月期间电动汽车注册量为656,000辆，同比增长67%。这使得电动汽车市场份额略高于7%。他们说特斯拉在这个期间有390,000辆注册，同比增长50%，占美国电动汽车市场份额近60%。其中，他们表示有236,000辆Model Y，比去年翻了一番，以及131,000辆Model 3，增长了21%。至于Model S和Model X，数据显示Model S下降了51%。这主要与税收抵免、Model 3和Y的价格下调、国际出口以及高利率有关。我们已经看到特斯拉对此作出了反应，现在我们将看到这些降价对市场的影响。Model X受到了相同的影响，根据这些数据，其同比下降了14%。

Next is a quick update on supercharging Tesla today announcing that they have crossed 50,000 superchargers installed worldwide. It's a huge milestone, decade long effort for Tesla, but also very interestingly, about half of those superchargers have been installed just within the last two years. So pretty crazy to think about, and exciting to think about where this will be another decade from now.

接下来是关于特斯拉 超级充电站的最新消息：他们宣布全球已经安装了超过50,000个超级充电站。这是特斯拉经过十年的努力所取得的重大里程碑，但有趣的是，其中约有一半超级充电站是在过去两年内安装的。这种速度令人惊叹，让人兴奋地想象再过十年会有怎样的发展。

All right, last couple of things for today, yesterday we had talked about the Robotaxy concept image. It looked like maybe three wheel versions of that, maybe four wheel versions of that. A good reminder from a listener though that Elon actually commented a few years ago on three wheel vehicles, saying that he couldn't support those in general because they were not safe enough. So a good reminder there, of course, it's possible that things could have changed over time, and even if not, Tesla obviously could have played around with some of those concepts anyway. We'll guarantee that we're seeing anything that's close to what Tesla will finalize, but definitely a good reminder for Elon's comments on that topic.

好了，今天最后几件事情了，昨天我们谈到了Robotaxy概念图像。它看起来可能是三轮版本，或者可能是四轮版本。但是一位聆听者提醒说，几年前埃隆评论了三轮车辆，并表示他不能支持这些车辆，因为它们不够安全。这是一个很好的提醒，当然，时间过去了，情况可能有所改变，即使没有改变，特斯拉显然还是可以制作一些相关概念。我们不能保证我们所看到的任何东西都接近特斯拉的最终产品，但这绝对是对埃隆在这个话题上的评论的一个很好的提醒。

Finally, as we head into tomorrow, Ron Beren will be appearing on CNBC. That'll be two and a half hours before market open, seven o'clock Eastern time, and usually Tesla is a part of that discussion, so we'll keep an eye on that. And then of course, we've got CPI tomorrow morning as well. That will do it for today though, so as always, thank you for listening, make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications, you can also find me on X at Tesla podcast, and we'll see you tomorrow for the Wednesday, September 13th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

最后，明天Ron Beren将出现在CNBC。这将是在市场开盘前两个半小时，美国东部时间晚上七点。通常情况下，特斯拉也是那个讨论的一部分，所以我们会密切关注。当然，明天早上我们还有CPI数据。尽管如此，今天就到这里了。感谢您的收听，一如既往，请确保您已经订阅并开启通知功能，您也可以在X的特斯拉播客上找到我，我们明天再见，为9月13日星期三的特斯拉日报节目。谢谢。