Tesla Just Unlocked Way Faster AI Progress

Hey everybody Rob Nower here and today we've got some exciting new details on exactly how impactful Tesla's new H100 cluster is going to be for their capabilities. We've also got a couple updates on Project Highland, some news on Tesla battery research, and a few other items as well.

大家好，我是罗布·诺维尔（Rob Nower）。今天，我们将向大家介绍有关特斯拉全新H100集群在其能力方面的影响力的一些令人兴奋的新细节。我们还将为大家更新项目高地（Project Highland）的进展情况，特斯拉电池研究的一些消息以及其他一些内容。

Alright starting off with the stock, not quite as exciting of a day for Tesla today, down 1 tenth percent closing at $256.90 while the NASDAQ was up half a percent today. As we mentioned when looking at the calendar, a couple economic reports that were published today, the revised estimate for GDP for the second quarter was published. That was revised down. So the advance release, the first release estimated GDP at 2.4 percent, GDP now coming in at 2.1 percent with this revised release. We should get the final number, I think that'll come in about a month or so. So not the final release, but interesting to see that revised down. Obviously, the lower that number is, represents worst things for the economy, but potentially impacts expectations for interest rates as well. And kind of paired alongside that with the GDP release was the Q2, PCE or personal consumption expenditures. Those were revised. So this is different than the PCE report that will get for July tomorrow. That'll come out before market open. That's the monthly indicator. This is the quarterly indicator. These get revised too, of course, and this, in this case, second quarter of PCE was revised up from 1.6 percent to 1.7 percent. So not an extreme revision a little bit higher though, but still just wanted to make sure that that's clear that that's not the PCE report, which will be for July that we get tomorrow, which is obviously more recent than the data that we're talking about here for Q2. So just want to make that clear.

股市方面，对于特斯拉来说，今天并不是非常令人兴奋的一天，下跌了0.1％，收于256.90美元，而纳斯达克指数今天上涨了0.5％。正如我们在查看日历时提到的，今天发布了几个经济报告，其中包括对第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）进行的修正估计。这一修正结果是向下修正的。因此，初步发布对第二季度GDP的估计值为2.4％，而修正发布的数据显示GDP为2.1％。我认为我们将在大约一个月后得到最终的数据。所以这不是最终发布的数据，但是修正向下是有意思的。显然，这一数字越低，意味着经济状况越糟，但可能也会对利率预期产生影响。与GDP发布同时进行的是第二季度个人消费支出（PCE）的修正。这与明天公布的7月PCE报告不同。明天市场开盘之前会公布那个，这是一个月度指标。当然，这些也会进行修正，而在这种情况下，第二季度的PCE从1.6％修正为1.7％。虽然修正不是很大，但我还是想确保清楚地指出，这不是PCE报告，我们将在明天获得的是7月的报告，这比我们在这里谈论的Q2数据更新。我只是想澄清这一点。

And then I want to talk more about the H100 and video cluster that Tesla is turning on right now. Just a little bit about this over the last couple of days. So of course, Tesla is turning on their 10,000 H100 cluster. We talked before about how maybe with a conservative estimate, maybe that's something like two times an A100 equivalent, which is kind of how Tesla has framed their GPU capacity in the past for training capabilities. That was conservative. Some other estimates out there when as high as 9x, something like that. Elon has now clarified this, which allows us to get a much better understanding of how big of an advancement this is exactly for Tesla in their training capabilities. So Elon saying that in their testing, H100s are about three times faster than a 100s. So it's just something to keep in mind whenever you're looking at the benchmark data, obviously those kinds of things are going to depend on exactly what use cases are being tested for those benchmarks. And that's going to vary from real world as we're seeing here with Elon's tweet. Over the last three x, that's huge. Again, a little bit higher than my conservative estimate. So I'm glad to see this. And I want to put this in context for what we had talked about probably a month, month and a half ago or so now, which was the graph that Tesla shared about the increases in compute compute capacity that they are planning to have over the next 18 months or so.

然后，我想进一步谈谈特斯拉目前正在启动的H100和视频集群。在过去几天里，特斯拉开启了他们的10,000个H100集群。我们之前提到过，根据保守估计，这可能相当于A100的两倍，这也是特斯拉过去在训练能力方面所描述的GPU容量。这是一个保守估计，其他一些估计可能高达9倍左右。埃隆现在对此进行了澄清，这让我们更好地理解了特斯拉在训练能力方面的巨大进步。埃隆表示，在他们的测试中，H100比A100快大约三倍。所以，当你查看基准数据时，要记住这一点，显然这些东西会根据具体的用例进行测试，这与现实世界可能有所不同，就像我们在埃隆的推文中所看到的那样。过去的三倍速度增加是非常巨大的。比我保守估计的稍高一点。所以，我很高兴看到这个。我想把这个放在我们大约一个月半之前讨论的背景下，那时特斯拉分享了他们在接下来的18个月左右计划拥有的计算能力的增长曲线。

So remember, we broke out the pixel math on this, each chunk of these 100,000 A100 GPU equivalent blocks was 69 pixels. At the beginning of this year, Tesla started at seven pixels of that filled in. So you've got roughly 10,000 A100 equivalents to start this year for Tesla. Now that's grown actually significantly, even though it hardly looks like it on this graph to the equivalent of 12 pixels right around the time that Tesla had published this, which wasn't equivalent of 17,000 A100 GPUs. Now that can come from a little bit of dojo, but probably mostly A100s at that point in time, Tesla then said that they were starting production of dojo, which was a part of what will drive Tesla's compute capacity up significantly over the next 18 months.

所以请记住，我们对这个进行了像素计算，每个等于10万个A100 GPU的块由69个像素组成。今年年初，特斯拉的像素填充数量是7个。所以特斯拉今年初始拥有大约1万个A100 GPU的等值。尽管在这个图表上看起来似乎增长不大，但实际上增长了相当多，接近于12个像素，这相当于特斯拉公布时等于17,000个A100 GPU。这可能来自一些道场训练，但那时主要是用的A100 GPU。然后特斯拉表示他们开始生产道场，这将是提升特斯拉计算能力的重要组成部分，在未来18个月内会有显著提升。

But as we have heard Elon say, part of that's going to be driven by Nvidia. And now it's more clear with the H100 cluster that they have talked about, probably what's driving the most significant part of the ramp up, you know, in this next three to six months.

正如我们听到埃隆所说过的那样，其中一部分将由英伟达驱动。现在，通过他们提到的H100集群，可能更清楚地知道，在接下来的三到六个月内会驱动增长的最重要因素是什么。

So again, putting this in context with the H100 cluster that we now have, as Tesla said, that's about 10,000 H100s. And if those are about three times faster than the A100s, which means we're looking at that equivalent of about 30,000 A100s, if we kind of reference back to this graph.

所以，再次将这个与我们现在拥有的H100集群放在背景中，正如特斯拉所说的那样，大约有10,000个H100s。如果这些设备的速度大约是A100s的三倍，那么根据这个图表的参考，我们正在关注约30,000个A100s的等价物。

So adding that to the 17,000 that we had roughly at the time that this was published, you know, again, there's maybe a little bit of dojo increase in there during that period of time. But going from 17,000 now ups you the equivalent of about 47,000 A100s with the addition of the H100s. So if we go back to then the beginning of this year, you're talking about now almost 50,000 compared to where Tesla was at about 10,000 to start the year.

所以，将这个数字加到我们大约在此文章发布时就已经有的17,000辆车上，你知道，在那个时期可能还有一点点道场的增加。但是从现在的17,000辆车增加到大约47,000辆A100和H100车型的总和。所以，如果我们回顾一下今年年初的情况，与特斯拉当时只有大约10,000辆车相比，现在已经接近50,000辆车了。

So year to date already increasing their training capacity by five times what it was. That means that at the beginning of the year, something that would have taken Tesla three months to train is now only going to take them about two and a half weeks. Or said another way, something that would take a week to train. Now only going to take them about a day and a half.

到目前为止，他们的培训能力已经增加了五倍。这意味着在年初，特斯拉要花三个月来培训的事情现在只需要大约两周半。换句话说，原本需要一周培训的事情，现在只需要一天半左右。

Now, as we talked about with FSD version 12, this is going to be a big deal because that's really what's going to drive the progress, what's going to drive sort of the march of nines, at least if Tesla's architecture and plans come to fruition the way they want them to video training data is the constraint as Tesla has put it.

现在，正如我们在FSD 12版本中所讨论的那样，这将是一个重要的问题，因为这将真正推动进展，推动所谓的“九次方进军”，至少如果特斯拉的架构和计划能够如他们所希望的那样实现，视频培训数据将是制约因素，正如特斯拉所说。

So the constraint to doing that is the computer hardware. And that's exactly what we're talking about here. Anytime you can increase your constraint from, you know, one X to five X like Tesla has done in the last eight months, that's going to hopefully lead to much, much faster progress.

所以要做到这一点的限制是计算机硬件。这也正是我们在这里所讨论的。当你能够将你的限制从一倍增加到五倍，就像特斯拉在过去八个月中所做的那样，这有望会带来更快的进步。

So we're in an extremely exciting period of time right now. And again, a lot of these things aren't going to be immediately visible. But that is just a fundamental change in where Tesla's capabilities are. And hopefully the rate of progress that we then see in the actual consumer product. So obviously we'll have to wait and see if that comes eventually. But it's very exciting to see what what could be unlocked from this capability.

我们现在正处于一个非常令人兴奋的时期。而且，很多事情并不会立即显现出来。但这只是特斯拉能力的根本变化。希望我们在实际消费产品中能够看到这一进展速度。所以显然我们还得等待并观察是否最终能够实现。但从这种能力中能够解锁出什么样的东西真的让人兴奋。

So I don't want to go on and on about this, but it's very exciting. And obviously this is just the beginning stages. Right now this actually already puts us kind of where Tesla had originally plotted out to be in sort of October in that period of time. So it looks like there may be even a little bit of head of schedule shockingly on this massive increase that they had planned.

所以我不想继续谈论这个问题，但这真的很令人兴奋。显然，这只是开始阶段。现在，实际上，我们已经达到了特斯拉最初规划的时间节点，大约是在十月左右。看起来他们计划中的大幅增长甚至可能领先于预期时间表，这真是让人意外的。

Now, I don't know. Obviously they said go live for the H100 cluster right now. I don't know if that's going to take them any time to kind of ramp up and actually integrate to the training process. But if that is sort of a flip of the switch type of a situation, then, you know, we'd be looking at Tesla being a head of schedule on this ramp, not even considering maybe the impacts of dojo yet. Although this gives us more clarity that again, a lot of this is probably driven by the H100s.

现在，我不知道。显然，他们说现在就要上线H100集群。我不知道他们是否需要时间逐步推进并真正整合到培训过程中。但如果这是一种瞬间切换的情况，那么，你知道的，我们将看到特斯拉在这一推广计划上超前进度，甚至还没有考虑到道场的影响。虽然这给我们带来更多的清晰度，再次证明很多问题可能是由H100s所驱动的。

So start of production for dojo that still could take, you know, a pretty significant amount of time to start to contribute to this growth trend. And maybe that's really what's, you know, driving the increases for next year. So again, exciting time and we'll continue to keep an eye on that. And I'm very thankful that Tesla shared these updates with us.

因此，对于道场的生产开始可能需要相当长的时间才能开始对这一增长趋势做出贡献。也许这正是推动明年增长的原因。总之，这是一个令人兴奋的时刻，我们将继续关注这一情况。我非常感谢特斯拉与我们分享这些更新。

All right, moving on just a couple of quick updates or rumors, I guess, on Project Thailand. So Tesla Chan on X noting that according to local China, China news, Model three, highly on trial test production is over. So you can take that obviously different different ways, but presumably based on some other rumors that we have heard in the past, the trial production was, you know, the period of time before they would put it into full scale production, which again, according to some of those rumors seem to be targeted for September. There's more rumors, of course, of maybe some sort of an announcement on Friday.

好的，接下来只有一些有关泰国项目的快速更新或谣言吧。所以，特斯拉陈在X上指出，根据中国当地媒体的报道，Model 3的试验生产已经结束。所以，你可以以不同的方式理解这个消息，但是根据我们过去听到的一些其他谣言，试验生产是在进入大规模生产之前的一段时间，而根据一些谣言，大规模生产的目标是在九月份。当然，还有更多的谣言，可能会在星期五有某种公告。

So trial production testing trial test production ending before then could be a good sign that maybe that remains on track. So we'll see. I'm not putting all my hopes on any announcement on Friday, but just something to keep an eye on as we head towards that date.

因此，在此之前结束试制测试生产可能是个好兆头，可能表示事情仍然在进展中。因此，我们拭目以待。我并不完全寄望于周五的任何公告，但这是一个需要我们关注的事情，随着我们接近那个日期。

And then just wanted to honestly just show this render. I think it's one of the best renders that we have seen of what Project Thailand could look like. Obviously, this is just a render, not a final photo by any means. But it looks great if, you know, if this is something, if it looks something like this, I think most people will be quite happy with that.

然后，我只是想诚实地展示这个渲染图。我认为这是我们看到过的“泰国项目”可能会出现的最好渲染图之一。当然，这只是一个渲染图，不代表最终照片。但是，如果是这样的样子，我想大多数人会非常满意。

And then a drive Tesla candidate, a drive Tesla candidate to day reporting that these two sets of wheels are going to be the new wheels on the updated Model 3. So obviously these would be matte black versus, you know, right now we've got more of the aluminum wheels on the Model 3, at least in the United States.

然后，一个试驾特斯拉的候选人今天报道说，这两套车轮将成为更新后的Model 3的新车轮。很显然，这些车轮将是哑光黑色的，而我们现在的Model 3车上多数是铝合金车轮，至少在美国是这样。

And similar style here on the larger wheels, a little bit different in terms of, you know, what the arrow, uncapped arrow wheels look like. I think they've got a photo of those here to compare to. Yeah. So you can see pretty similar there, except for the coloring, and then a little bit more of a change on the arrow wheels. Presumably these ones would also have a cap, but I don't know, kind of tough to tell with what we're seeing here. So again, all of these I would put in the rumor category, but we seem to be starting to see quite a bit more information on Highland. All right.

在这些更大的车轮上，风格相似，但在外观上有一些不同，你懂的，饰箭头的车轮是什么样子的，他们在这里应该有一张照片进行比较。是的。你可以看到它们非常相似，除了颜色之外，在箭头车轮上还有一点变化。我猜这些车轮也应该有一个盖子，但是从我们看到的东西来看有点难以判断。所以再次强调，所有这些都属于谣言，但是我们似乎开始看到越来越多关于Highland的信息。好的。

Next we've got an update on Tesla's battery research. So as we've talked about many times in the past, Tesla partners with the Dollhousey Research Group in Canada, I guess the Don Research Group at Dollhousey University in Canada. So Electric Autonomy, who has had some information on various different topics about, you know, EVs and Tesla's conversations with Canada in the past, they visited the Don Research Group and had a really interesting article that I'll link in the description today. I would recommend reading it. We're not going to go through everything because it's pretty lengthy, but some pretty interesting insights that they shared. So in their conversations with one of the members of the team, he talked about a couple of samples, I guess four different samples of different batteries that they were testing at that time and said, you know, of one of these pouches that they were looking at, that's probably the best lithium ion cell that you can make today. So they've got a few different chemistries here, one of which is lithium iron phosphate, some nickel manganese cobalt, et cetera.

接下来我们将给大家介绍一下特斯拉的电池研究最新进展。正如我们之前多次提到的，特斯拉与加拿大的多尔豪斯大学的唐研究团队合作。所以《电动自主权》杂志之前曾经报道过一些与电动汽车和特斯拉在加拿大的交流有关的信息，他们此次访问了唐研究团队，并发表了一篇非常有趣的文章，我会在描述中附上链接，建议大家阅读一下。我们不会逐一介绍其中的所有内容，因为非常冗长，但其中分享了一些非常有意思的见解。在他们与唐研究团队成员的交流中，他们提到了几种不同类型的电池样品，大概有四种，正在进行测试，并说了一种他们正在研究的袋式电池，可能是目前可制造的最好的锂离子电池。他们在这里使用了几种不同的化学成分，其中包括磷酸铁锂、镍锰钴等等。

So the one that he was referring to there specifically, he highlighted a new ingredient, which would be silicon carbide. So losing my place on where that's mentioned, but yeah, there, I mentioned to highlight it, didn't quite get it highlighted. So silicon carbide, saying that that is helping drive the energy density. So of course, we've known about that for a long time. Tesla does plan to integrate silicon into 4680s. Silicon carbide here would potentially be a little bit different. But they talked about how, you know, again, this is his words, potentially the best battery in the world with him saying that the lithium iron phosphate then might take second place. Obviously, there's different characteristics, different use cases for all different types of batteries with the silicon battery. Obviously, what you got to kind of worry about with that is degradation. So he noted that it doesn't cycle as many times, obviously as a lithium iron phosphate battery would. But again, for Tesla's use cases, you don't need necessarily quite as many cycles, at least in automotive, as they talk about here with the nickel manganese cobalt battery, which you know, has sort of famously been talked about as quote unquote million mile battery in the past. And we've covered that probably three years ago at this point, maybe. But talking about the cycle life said that that is now up to 19,500 cycles and counting. If each cycle, you know, is full at 300 kilometers, you're talking about 6 million kilometers, which would be, you know, just shy of 4 million miles. So pretty crazy to kind of just see the potential life, lifespan of the batteries that are, you know, potentially being used in EVs today. So again, I'll put the link to this in the description again, a lot of other interesting details in that nice to kind of see some of that being shared.

所以他在那里指的是一个特定的东西，他强调了一种新的成分，即碳化硅。我现在不记得具体在哪里提到了，但是我在那里提到了要强调它，但还没有强调出来。所以碳化硅被认为是推动能量密度的因素。当然，我们很久以前就已经知道了这一点。特斯拉计划将硅集成到 4680 电池中。这里的碳化硅可能会有一些不同。但是他谈到了，你知道，可能是世界上最好的电池，他说氧化铁锂电池可能居第二位。显然，不同类型的电池有不同的特性和用途。对于硅电池，你需要担心的是其降解问题。他指出，它的循环次数显然不及氧化铁锂电池。但是对于特斯拉的应用场景来说，在汽车领域，你不需要像镍锰钴电池那样多的循环次数。大家都知道，镍锰钴电池在过去也曾被称为百万英里电池。我们在大约三年前就报道过这个。关于循环寿命，他说目前已经达到了 19,500 个循环次数，并且还在不断增加。如果每个循环都是 300 公里，那么你在谈论的是 6 百万公里，也就是接近 4 百万英里。所以，看到今天可能被用于电动车中的电池的潜在寿命真是非常令人惊讶。再次强调，我会在描述中放上链接，这篇文章中还有很多其他有趣的细节。

And then the last few things for today, just a quick update on Tesla superchargers in Australia, the driven.io is reporting that Tesla has opened up nearly half of its superchargers in Australia. There's only 63 superchargers right now in Australia, but they've opened up about 30 of these. I think they were testing this with with five of them previously. So a pretty big expansion to non Tesla owners, supercharger access there in Australia.

然后，接下来是今天的最后几件事，简单地更新一下澳大利亚的特斯拉超级充电桩情况。据 driven.io 报道，特斯拉已经开放了澳大利亚几乎一半的超级充电桩。目前澳大利亚只有63个超级充电桩，但他们已经开放了其中约30个。我记得以前他们只用了其中的五个进行测试。这对于非特斯拉车主来说，在澳大利亚可以更方便地使用超级充电桩是一个相当大的扩展。

And then the Wall Street Journal today with a report that the Department of Justice and the SEC are investigating Tesla over a secret, secret glass house project. This is something we talked about Wall Street Journal had a report on this probably a month ago or so, and that followed a Bloomberg report on this, I don't know, six months a year ago or so.

然后今天《华尔街日报》的一篇报道提到，美国司法部和证券交易委员会正在调查特斯拉公司涉及一个秘密玻璃房计划的事情。我们之前已经有过与此相关的讨论，大概一个月前《华尔街日报》就有过相应报道，此前还有大约六个月或一年左右的时间，彭博社也有报道过此事。

So we've talked about this a number of times. I don't want to go into the details because there's really no additional details that are shared this time around other than the fact that the DOJ and SEC are looking into it. The gist of it was that there was some special glass that was ordered for Tesla. And there's some communication that maybe that was for a house or something similar like that for Elon and just questions around the appropriation of those funds and what they were being used for.

所以我们已经多次讨论过这个问题。我不想详细介绍，因为这次没有额外的细节，只是有司法部和证券交易委员会在调查。要点是特斯拉订购了一些特殊玻璃。有一些沟通表明，这可能是为了给埃隆的房子或类似的东西，涉及这些资金的使用是否合适，以及它们被用来做什么。

So again, as we talked about when this initially came out, there was, you know, conflicting information on whether or not it was even for a house. And there's no new information in this at this point in time. The only new information again is that Wall Street Journal is saying that the DOJ and the SEC are looking into it. It doesn't mean that anything is going to come to it come of it. But obviously that always gets a lot of attention. So we'll see. I'm sure we'll have more reporting on that.

所以，如我们最初讨论的那样，关于它到底是否为房子，存在着相互矛盾的信息。而现在这方面没有新的信息。唯一的新信息是《华尔街日报》称司法部和证券交易委员会正在调查此事。这并不意味着一定会有结果。但显然这总是引起很多关注。所以我们会继续关注此事，我相信我们会有更多的报道。

And then finally for today, just a quick update on Rivian. So Rivian has announced the range estimates for their new dual motor variant of the R1T still waiting on the R1S figures. But interesting to see these for the R1T. They're pretty good. So with their Max Pack and 21 inch wheels, the EPA range on the R1T is going to be up to 410 miles. Obviously that declines a little bit if you go with the smaller wheels. And then if you opt down to the large pack versus the Max Pack, that range drops a bit, of course, with a smaller pack to around 350 miles, again, depending on the exact configuration.

今天最后，我们来简单介绍一下Rivian的最新情况。Rivian已经公布了新款双电机R1T的续航里程预估，目前还在等待R1S的数据。不过，看到R1T的续航里程预估还是挺有趣的。它们相当不错。配备Max Pack和21英寸轮毂时，R1T的EPA续航里程将达到410英里。当然，如果选择较小的轮毂，续航里程会稍微下降。再者，如果选择大容量电池组而非Max Pack，这个里程将会稍微降低一点，大概在350英里左右，具体取决于配置选择。

So it looks like pretty good numbers there for Rivian. Of course, the dual motor is using a new in-house developed motor from Rivian. So I think they're excited to get that out and that configuration and of course, the EPA estimates here. All right.

所以看起来Rivian的数据相当不错。当然，双电机采用了Rivian自家研发的新电动机。因此，我认为他们对此感到兴奋，并且对EPA（美国环境保护署）在这方面的估计也是如此。好的。

That'll wrap it up for today then. So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You'll also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Thursday, August 31 episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

今天就到这里吧。所以像往常一样感谢你们的聆听。请确保您已经订阅并开启了通知。您也可以在特斯拉播客中找到我。我们明天再见，参加8月31日星期四的特斯拉每日节目。谢谢。