How does raising interest rates control inflation? - YouTube

When central banks raise interest rates, it's big news. Bank is judging that the only way they can try to pull down inflation is to carry on raising interest rates. I'm going to see rising rates. Rising interest rates that will make the cost of borrowing go up. It can send ripples across the whole economy. It can sink consumer confidence, result in fewer jobs and lower wages, and cause stock prices to fall. If they go too far too fast, it can tip economies into recession. So why do central banks raise interest rates? Let's start with the basics. If you borrow money, you'll have to pay back a little extra to make it worthwhile for the lender.

当中央银行提高利率时，这是一个重大新闻。银行判断他们尝试抑制通胀的唯一方法就是继续提高利率。我将会看到利率上升。利率上升将使得借款成本增加。它可能对整个经济产生连锁反应。它可能导致消费者信心下降，就业减少，工资下降，股价下跌。如果中央银行行动过快、过大，可能会导致经济陷入衰退。那么为什么中央银行要提高利率呢？让我们从基本的概念开始。如果你借钱，你必须多付一点利息来使借贷对借款人有利。

I think we can make it this long. You have a good reputation. We know you're alive. I'm glad you thanks to all of you. This is the interest rate. So if you are taking out a loan, you want the interest rate to be as low as possible, so you don't have to pay that much back. On the flip side, if you want to save money, then a high interest rate means you can earn more on your savings. See it as a reward for leaving money in your account. But the size of your reward depends on the circumstances. There's no single interest rate in the economy. You've got thousands of banks setting their own commercial rates. That's all influenced, though, by the interest rate that the central bank sets.

我认为我们能够坚持这么长时间。你有良好的声誉。我们知道你还活着。感谢大家，我很高兴。这是利率。所以如果你要借贷，你希望利率尽可能低，这样你就不需要还那么多钱。另一方面，如果你想存钱，高利率意味着你可以在储蓄中赚更多钱。把它看作为留在你账户中的钱的回报。但是奖励的大小取决于情况。在经济中没有单一的利率。你有成千上万家银行自行设定商业利率。然而，这些利率都受到央行设定的利率的影响。

A central bank is like a bank for banks. Just like you and your savings account, banks also earn interest when they leave money with a central bank. Commercial banks have these things called reserves. So that's a bit like their cash on hand. Commercial banks lend those excess reserves to each other at an interest rate, and they also can deposit their excess reserves at the central bank. And when they do that, they can earn an interest rate. Ordinary people can't access the interest rate on the excess reserves, but it still affects them. And that's the idea. When central banks raise interest rates, they're trying to control inflation, how fast prices rise for everyone. They were 129, now they won 39, and that's in the space of four weeks.

中央银行就像是专门为商业银行服务的银行。就像你和你的储蓄账户一样，商业银行把钱存入中央银行时也能获得利息收益。商业银行有一种叫做准备金的东西，类似于他们手头的现金。商业银行会以一定的利率把这些多余的准备金借给其他银行，他们也可以将这些多余的准备金存入中央银行。当他们这样做时，可以获得利息收益。普通人无法获取超额准备金的利率，但它仍会对他们产生影响。这就是其中的原理。当中央银行提高利率时，他们试图控制通胀，即所有商品的价格上涨速度。在短短四周的时间里，价格从129涨到了39。

Central banks, like the Fed or the Bank of England or the European Central Bank, are all trying to hit an inflation target of 2%. Interest rates are a really powerful tool that they have to do that. If inflation is seen as too high, that's when banks raise interest rates. The change spreads through the financial system, and slows down the rate of inflation. Here's how. A rise in interest rates from a central bank means that a commercial bank will earn more on their reserves. They might make more from keeping their money in a central bank than lending it out. So if they do lend it out, they'll raise their interest rates to make it worth their while. How that affects consumers depends on the economy.

中央银行（如美联储、英格兰银行或欧洲央行）都试图实现通胀目标为2%。利率是他们达到目标的一个非常有力的工具。如果通胀被认为过高，银行就会提高利率。这种变化会通过金融系统传播，减缓通胀速度。具体如下：中央银行提高利率意味着商业银行可以从储备中获得更高的收益。可能通过将资金继续存放在中央银行而取得更高回报，而不是将其贷出。因此，如果他们确实贷出资金，他们会提高利率以使其有所收益。这对消费者的影响取决于经济状况。

Take mortgages. In places like Finland or Australia, lots of people have mortgages with variable interest rates. If you've got a variable rate mortgage where the interest rate that you pay is linked to the central bank's interest rate, then higher interest rates mean that essentially immediately the higher rate will translate into less cash to spend on other things. Less spare cash means households will spend less. And less spending means businesses will be wary of raising prices. This should lower inflation. In other countries like America or Canada, a bigger share of mortgages are set at fixed rates. People with fixed rates are protected against the direct effects of an interest rate rise, but will still feel an indirect impact. Higher interest rates mean that mortgages will become more expensive. If that is affecting all new buyers, then house prices will begin to fall. And that will make everyone who owns a home feel poorer and therefore they might spend less. Lower spending will translate into lower inflation.

以抵押贷款为例。在芬兰或澳大利亚这样的地方，许多人拥有的抵押贷款利率是浮动的。如果你的抵押贷款利率与央行的利率挂钩，那么提高的利率会立即意味着较少可用于其他开销的现金。较少的闲钱意味着家庭开支会减少。而较少的消费意味着企业会谨慎提高价格。这应该会降低通货膨胀。在美国或加拿大等其他国家，更多的抵押贷款利率是固定的。利率固定的人受到利率上升的直接影响的保护，但仍然会感受到间接影响。较高的利率意味着抵押贷款会变得更加昂贵。如果这影响到所有新买家，那么房价将开始下降。这将导致所有房主感到更贫困，因此他们可能会减少消费。更低的消费将导致较低的通货膨胀。

And it's not just consumers who will tighten the purse strings. When interest rates rise, then businesses will find it more expensive to borrow and invest. That generally means less economic activity. It might mean fewer jobs are created. Fewer jobs and lower wages could mean less money for households. And consumer confidence might suffer, which also means less spending. People are grappling with a decline in real wages, meaning their money buys less. When interest rates rise, that will tend to slow down spending, investment and generally depress economic activity. Overall, that will make businesses more reluctant to raise their prices, and that will tend to pull back inflation.

不仅仅是消费者会收紧腰带。当利率上升时，企业借贷和投资将变得更加昂贵。这通常意味着经济活动变少。这可能意味着创造的工作岗位减少。更少的工作机会和较低的工资可能意味着家庭收入减少。消费者信心可能会受到打击，这也意味着消费减少。人们正面临实际工资下降，这意味着他们的钱买不到更多东西。当利率上升时，这将会减缓消费、投资以及整体经济活动。总的来说，这将使企业更不愿意提高价格，从而减少通胀压力。

It sounds straightforward, right? But the trick is judging how far to go. In 1981, the Federal Reserve, America's central bank, allowed interest rates to rise to a whopping 19%. The move curbed inflation, but it led to widespread economic pain.

听起来很简单，对吧？但关键是判断到底要走多远。1981年，美联储作为美国的中央银行，让利率飙升到了惊人的19%。这一举措抑制了通胀，但也导致了广泛的经济困境。

I regret to say that we're in the worst economic mess since the Great Depression. It is very difficult to get inflation under control without severely denting economic activity. In America, it's been over 70 years since they've managed to get inflation down from over 5% without closing a recession. A little inflation is okay. It keeps the economy moving at a sensible speed, but inflation staying high for too long is a problem. Higher prices means employees will need higher wages, pushing up costs for businesses. That could drive up prices further, potentially leading to an upward spiral of wages and prices. The deal in fashion India has surged to 7.8%. The combination of step-air economic activity in high inflation poses serious challenges for Indian economy going forward.

很抱歉地说，我们正面临自经济大萧条以来最严重的经济困境。如果不严重影响经济活动，很难控制通胀。在美国，已经有70多年没有在不导致经济衰退的情况下将通胀降至5%以下了。适度的通胀可以保持经济以合理的速度发展，但通胀持续过高会造成问题。价格上涨意味着员工需要更高的工资，推高了企业的成本。这可能进一步推高价格，潜在地导致工资和价格的上升螺旋。印度的通胀率已经上升到了7.8%。经济活动的停滞和高通胀的结合给印度经济未来带来了严峻的挑战。

Central Bankers are really concerned about setting expectations of inflation. The idea is that if it can show that it is credible, that it will always act to get inflation back down to 2%, then maybe it won't have to raise interest rates and then lower them in this kind of seesaw fashion.

央行行长们非常关注通胀预期的设定。其意思是，如果央行能够展示其可信度，总是会采取行动将通胀下调至2%，那么也许就不必以这种来回波动的方式提高和降低利率。

Raising interest rates can slow an economy right down. The trouble is the break pedal has a delay. It can take as long as two years to see the full results from interest rate changes. Central banks know this, so when they set interest rates, they're actually trying to read the road ahead. But predicting the future isn't easy. The problem is it's difficult for the Central Bank to work out whether the inflation will fall back on its own. And even when central banks do get it right, they might still cause a crash.

提高利率可以减缓经济的增长速度。问题在于刹车踏板有个延迟。要看到利率变化的完整结果可能需要长达两年的时间。中央银行都知道这一点，所以当他们确定利率时，实际上是在试图预测未来的道路。然而，预测未来并不容易。问题在于，中央银行很难确定通胀是否会自行回落。即使中央银行能够正确预测，他们可能仍然会引发经济崩溃。

It may be a blunt instrument, but raising interest rates is still Central Bank's main tool for taming inflation. Central Bankers would say that, yes, raising interest rates can be painful. Slowing down the economy is not fun. But it's worth it. It's worth it to get low and steady inflation, so that in the long run, you don't have to think about it.

尽管粗暴，但提高利率仍然是央行遏制通胀的主要工具。央行官员会说，是的，提高利率可能会带来痛苦。放慢经济增长并不好玩。但这是值得的。为了实现低稳定的通胀，这样长远来看就不必过多考虑它了。

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